Orioles Interested In Lance Lynn
The Orioles are interested in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). Morosi adds that the Orioles slightly prefer fellow righty Alex Cobb, however, thanks to his vast experience in the American League East. Morosi first linked Cobb to the Orioles on Friday.
Either Lynn or Cobb is the third-best established starter on the market behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and signing one of the two second-tier arms would ostensibly be a boon to a Baltimore rotation in dire need of help. Orioles starters placed 27th in the majors in fWAR (5.5) and dead last in ERA (5.70) during the regular season, and with 2017 rotation members Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez now on the open market, the team is on the hunt for multiple starters.
Lynn debuted as a regular in the Cardinals’ rotation in 2012 and has quietly been among the majors’ most consistent workhorses since then. With the exception of 2016, which he missed after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Lynn hasn’t finished with fewer than 29 starts or 175 1/3 innings in any full season. The fastball specialist has also thrived at keeping opposing offenses at bay, evidenced by a 3.37 ERA that ranks tied for 22nd among big league starters since 2012.
The 30-year-old Lynn spun 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2017, though his terrific run prevention came in spite of underwhelming rates in the strikeout (7.39 K/9; down from 8.46 lifetime) and walk (3.77; up from 3.4) departments. A fair amount of Lynn’s success last season was on account of a .244 batting average on balls in play, way down from his .297 career mark, but it wasn’t solely a product of good fortune. Lynn tied with a handful of starters – including National League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer – for 25th out of 94 qualifiers in average exit velocity allowed (85.7 mph). Thanks in part to that, his expected weighted on-base average allowed (.310) was right in line with the .309 wOBA he surrendered.
Considering both Lynn’s track record and the dearth of big-time starters available in free agency, he’s in line to land one of the offseason’s richest contracts. With Lynn having rejected the Cardinals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, signing him would cost Baltimore its third-highest pick in next summer’s draft, which isn’t much of a deterrent in and of itself. But, as much as Lynn could help the O’s rotation in 2018, it’s debatable whether they’d be wise to hand a lucrative long-term deal to him, Cobb or anyone else this winter with core players Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach scheduled to hit free agency next year.
Nationals Name Dave Martinez Manager
NOV. 18: Martinez will make $2.8MM over the next three years. His 2021 option is valued at $1.2MM, giving his contract a maximum of $4MM over four years, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports via Twitter.
OCT. 30: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Martinez to a three-year deal with a team option for the 2021 season.
“We are delighted to bring Dave aboard and excited about what he will bring to our clubhouse and our dugout,” said owner Ted Lerner in a statement announcing the hire. “We have been very clear about our goals as an organization and we feel confident we’ve found the right man to help us reach them.”
GM Mike Rizzo also offered a statement on his new skipper: “I am excited to bring Dave into our family. As we went through this process it became clear the type of manager we were looking for — someone who is progressive, someone who can connect with and communicate well with our players, and someone who embraces the analytical side of the game. We came away from the process feeling like there was absolutely no one better suited — who matched up to what this organization needs right now — than Dave.”
OCT. 29, 10:16am: A contract is now in place, Janes tweets. It’s a three-year deal with an option for 2021.
10:14am: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post confirms that Martinez is the choice, though she reports that he and the team haven’t finished negotiating a deal yet (Twitter link). Notably, the Nationals hired Baker after negotiations with Bud Black fell through. Black looked like a lock to land the job at one point, which is obviously the case with Martinez now.
9:14am: The Nationals will hire Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez as their manager, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. The Nats will make an official announcement after the World Series, Heyman adds.
After the firing of Dusty Baker on Oct. 20, the 53-year-old Martinez quickly emerged as the overwhelming favorite to take over in Washington, which chose him over fellow interviewee John Farrell. The Nationals also showed interest in Alex Cora, whom Boston selected as its manager, and Mets hitting coach Kevin Long. Washington received permission to interview Long, but it’s unclear whether the two actually met.
Martinez was a major league outfielder from 1986-2001 who also brings plenty of experience in the dugout. He served as manager Joe Maddon’s right-hand man in Tampa Bay (2008-14) and Chicago (2015-17), and drew managerial interest from multiple teams in recent offseasons. In fact, the Nationals nearly hired Martinez in 2013 prior to tabbing Matt Williams, who lasted two years before giving way to Baker.
Baker’s own two-year era was a resounding success during the regular season, as Washington piled up 192 wins and back-to-back National League East titles, but the club’s playoff struggles led to his ouster. The Baker-led Nationals were unable to get past Martinez’s Cubs in the National League Division Series this year, leading general manager Mike Rizzo to declare that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.”
Given the talent on hand, the Martinez-guided Nationals figure to once again end up as one of the majors’ premier teams in 2018. The Nationals’ collection of quality players surely made their managerial vacancy appealing to Martinez and others, but the job does come with drawbacks. The position doesn’t seem to feature much stability, for one, nor is Washington regarded as a franchise willing to spend much on a manager. Further, the Nationals could lose two of their best players – right fielder Bryce Harper and second baseman Daniel Murphy – to free agency in a year.
With Harper and Murphy in the fold for at least another season, the Nats will turn to a neophyte manager to win over a clubhouse that’s reportedly “upset” with Baker’s exit. Martinez has long been a well-regarded assistant, though, and both his openness to analytics and Spanish-speaking ability should serve him well in his new role.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Archer, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs
Rays right-hander Chris Archer may come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason, but general manager Erik Neander suggested Sunday that he plans to keep the 29-year-old. Neander told MLB Network Radio that Archer “is one of our core guys” and “exactly the type of player” the Rays need to retain if they’re going to compete in the future (Twitter link). Archer, who’s signed to one of the majors’ most team-friendly contracts, will make a combined $13.75MM over the next two seasons. After that, Archer’s employer will have a chance to control him through 2021 via ultra-affordable club options ($9MM and $11MM).
- The Red Sox are hiring Craig Bjornson as their bullpen coach, according to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. He’ll take over for Dana Levangie, whom the team promoted to pitching coach this week. Bjornson was with the Astros from 2012-17 and spent some of that time as their bullpen coach. He was on the same staff last season as new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the Astros’ bench coach during their World Series-winning campaign.
- The Cubs and Tigers still haven’t finalized the trade they made in July that saw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila head to Chicago for third baseman Jeimer Candelario, infielder Isaac Paredes and a player to be named later or cash, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus tweets. It turns out the Tigers will receive the PTBNL in lieu of cash, but the teams haven’t decided on which player yet.
- Mike Petriello of MLB.com breaks down the most appealing free agents available based on Statcast metrics xwOBA, Sprint Speed and Outs Above Average. Going by xwOBA, right fielder J.D. Martinez stands out on the offensive side; righties Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta bring the best track records among starters, while Pat Neshek is the top reliever. The OAA crown goes to Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who falls just shy of fellow outfielder Rajai Davis in the battle for fastest runner on the market. Petriello also suggests that, based on Statcast data, outfielder Hyun Soo Kim and a trio of righties – Tyler Chatwood, Anibal Sanchez and Tyson Ross – could end up as good buy-low signings.
Free Agent Profile: Eduardo Nunez
On the heels of the two best seasons of his career, journeyman Eduardo Nunez ranks as one of the top infielders available in free agency. Nunez, 30, played for a pair of teams in each of those seasons, so landing a multiyear contract would presumably give him some stability going forward.
Pros/Strengths
Nunez made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, but it took him until 2015, when he was a member of the Twins, to truly break out at the plate. While no one would call Nunez an offensive force, the right-handed hitter did post an above-average .296/.332/.443 line with 28 home runs in 1,290 plate appearances over the previous three seasons. Nunez was at his best in 2017, slashing .313/.341/.460 with 12 homers in 491 PAs between San Francisco and Boston. And when he got on base from 2016-17, Nunez was a legitimate threat, with 64 stolen bases (40 in ’16) and a 4.9 BsR.
Although strikeouts have become more and more prevalent over the years (there were a record 40,104 Ks in 2017), Nunez hasn’t really contributed to the trend. His lifetime strikeout rate is a meager 13 percent, and he only fanned a career-best 11 percent of the time last season. The rest of the league went down on strikes in 2017 at an average of 21.6 percent, and it made contact at a 77.5 percent clip. Nunez logged a much stronger 83.8 percent contact rate and sits at 85.5 percent for his career. He clearly excels at putting the ball in play, which is especially important for someone whose game is largely predicated on speed.
On the defensive side, Nunez’s value comes from his versatility. Most of his career has been spent at shortstop (270 games) and third base (255), but he played a personal-high 26 contests at second base with the Red Sox last season. He also has 49 games’ worth of outfield experience on his resume.
Weaknesses/Cons
While flexibility in the field is an obvious asset, Nunez isn’t really a well-regarded defender. His stint at the keystone in 2017 didn’t yield great results (minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-9.1 UZR/150), nor has he been a plus fielder at any other position during his career. In fairness to Nunez, though, he was hardly unplayable from 2016-17 at his primary spot – third base – combining for minus-2 DRS and a minus-0.3 UZR over nearly 1,100 innings.
Offensively, despite Nunez’s respectable output of late, there are some concerns. He seldom walks, for one, with a career rate of 4.9 percent. He checked in at 3.7 percent this past year, ranking seventh last among hitters who amassed at least 400 at-bats. And though Nunez still managed to finish 2017 with a .348 weighted on-base average, easily bettering the .321 league mean, Statcast’s xwOBA metric suggests it was far from legitimate. Among 183 hitters with at least 400 ABs, Nunez had the greatest disparity (a 73-point gap) between his wOBA and xwOBA (.275). The latter figure ranked eighth worst in the majors. Additionally, Nunez carries a weak .133 ISO for his career and registered a .148 in that category last season, falling well below the .171 league average. Of course, Nunez’s speed somewhat helps make up for the fact that he doesn’t pack a wallop, as he posted the league’s 23rd-highest infield hit rate last season (10.5 percent; league average was 6.6 percent). For his career, Nunez has reached via the infield single at a 9.6 percent clip.
Even if Nunez sustains his production over the next couple years, history suggests his availability could come into question. Nunez spent time on the disabled list in four of the five prior seasons, including in 2017 when he missed parts of June and July with a hamstring injury and most of September with a sprained PCL in his right knee. Nunez returned for the playoffs, but he left Game 1 of Boston’s ALDS matchup against Houston after aggravating that knee, causing him to miss the remainder of the series.
Background
Nunez is a native of the Dominican Republic who signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2004. Since then, he has been part of three trades – going from the Yankees to the Twins in 2014, the Twins to the Giants in 2016 and the Giants to the BoSox last season. A client of ISE Baseball, Nunez has collected more than $8.75MM in his career, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Market
Nunez hasn’t been part of any rumors early this offseason, but a return to the Red Sox could make sense with starting second baseman Dustin Pedroia likely to miss the first couple months of 2018 after undergoing knee surgery. But if Nunez is looking for a season’s worth of full-time work, he might be able to find it with several teams that should be on the hunt for a second baseman and/or a third bagger, including the Giants, Mets, Braves, Angels, Brewers and Blue Jays.
Expected Contract
MLBTR predicts Nunez will land a two-year, $14MM deal, which would represent a nice raise over the $4.2MM he earned in 2017.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:
- Jeff Todd took a comprehensive look at the trade market for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, whom the payroll-slashing club looks primed to ship out on the heels of his 59-home run season. Jeff laid out reasons why acquiring the high-priced NL MVP finalist would and would not make sense for 15 major league teams.
- Fellow Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna could also end up on the move this winter, inspiring Kyle Downing to seek a logical fit via trade for the 26-year-old standout.
- As small-market teams, the Twins and Brewers aren’t known for spending big on free agents, but Steve Adams explained why this winter could be the ideal time for both clubs to make bold moves.
- Six teams made qualifying offers to free agents prior to the Nov. 5 deadline. Tim Dierkes subsequently examined draft pick compensation for those teams if they lose those players. In another piece, he detailed which draft picks each club would lose by signing a free agent who rejected a QO.
- The latest editions of this year’s Offseason Outlook series focused on the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins and Rockies.
- In the first of two polls at MLBTR this week, I asked readers whether the Dodgers will trade catcher Yasmani Grandal this offseason. Then, Kyle wondered which high-profile prospect is most likely to be dealt in the coming months. He listed the Nationals’ Victor Robles, the Astros’ Kyle Tucker, the Indians’ duo of Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie, and the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo as possibilities.
- Although Mike Moustakas will probably land a much richer contract than fellow third baseman Todd Frazier in free agency, I made a case that the latter could wind up as the better signing.
Central News & Rumors: Royals, Bucs, Cards, Brewers
The Royals are holding out hope that they’ll be able to re-sign first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’ve “all but given up” on bringing back center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Hosmer and Moustakas figure to collect two of the largest contracts of the offseason, which could pose a problem for small-market Kansas City, but owner David Glass believes the Royals would stay competitive by re-upping the homegrown duo and doesn’t want to “disappoint” the team’s fan base by letting either go, Heyman relays. Before Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain officially hit the market, each will have to reject $17.4MM qualifying offers from the Royals by Nov. 16. Unsurprisingly, that will happen, according to Heyman.
Here’s the latest from the National League Central:
- With their control over outfielder Andrew McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole dwindling, the Pirates would be wise to listen to offseason proposals for both players, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. McCutchen, who will make $14.5MM in the final year of his contract in 2018, will “almost certainly” be in another uniform in 2019, writes Olney. Cole, meanwhile, is controllable via arbitration through ’19, and Olney argues that now may be the time to move the Scott Boras client because the Pirates probably won’t be able to extend him. Elsewhere on the Bucs’ roster, Olney points to righty Ivan Nova and lights-out closer Felipe Rivero as speculative trade pieces. Nova’s unspectacular, but he’d garner interest as a capable innings eater who’s due an affordable $9.1MM-plus per annum through next year. Rivero is only entering the first of four arb-eligible years and would likely warrant a massive return for a reliever, leading Olney to conclude that the Pirates should consider dealing him.
- The Cardinals are interested in upgrading the left side of their infield, perhaps by way of a Josh Donaldson acquisition and/or the addition of a defensively gifted shortstop, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. This isn’t the first time the Cardinals have been connected to Donaldson, but the Blue Jays are unlikely to trade the soon-to-be 32-year-old in advance of 2018, his final season of team control. The 2015 AL MVP is projected to rake in a $20.7MM arbitration award this offseason.
- Second baseman Neil Walker is currently a free agent, so the Brewers will have to decide whether to pursue him (or another outsider) or simply stay in-house at the position, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes. The Brewers have experienced second base possibilities on hand in Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez, but there may not be an ideal starter in the group. While general manager David Stearns seems to believe the Walker-less Brewers are in good shape at the keystone, he’s keeping his options open. “I do think we have pieces to handle it internally,” Stearns said. “I would be happy coming back with our same position player group, if that’s the way this offseason plays out. At the same time, we’re looking to get better.”
Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday
Heading into the upcoming week’s general managers meetings, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton ranks as the majors’ best on-the-block player. Here are the latest rumblings involving the 27-year-old National League MVP hopeful:
- Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.
- The Cardinals, who have discussed Stanton with the Marlins, are “determined” in their interest, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The two clubs expect to continue their Stanton talks at the meetings, according to Goold, who adds that the Cardinals also have Marlins closer Brad Ziegler on their radar. The 38-year-old Ziegler is due $9MM in 2018, and it’s fair to surmise that the payroll-slashing Marlins would like to remove as much of his money as possible from their books.
- Stanton has also piqued San Francisco’s interest, though the Marlins are bearish on the Giants’ farm system and don’t believe the team could put together a satisfactory package for the slugger, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. So, to increase their odds of acquiring Stanton, the Giants would have to commit to taking on more of his enormous contract than a team with better prospects, Shea contends. That would seemingly be problematic for the Giants, who don’t want to spend past the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018 and already have significant money on their books.
Giants Interested In Acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr.
The Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Bradley is one of “many” outfielders the Giants are eyeing, notes Morosi, who reported Friday that they have discussed right fielder Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins.
The 27-year-old Bradley would be a much less exciting addition for San Francisco than Stanton, who’s a National League MVP finalist after bashing 59 home runs in 2017, but he’d nonetheless upgrade its outfield. The Giants’ starting center fielder in 2017 was the 33-year-old Denard Span, who easily ranked last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-27) and posted a similarly dreadful minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Unsurprisingly, then, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has identified center field as a position where the Giants must improve.
“Center field needs to be upgraded,” Sabean said this week.
Bradley would fit the bill from a defensive standpoint, having combined for 34 DRS and a 23.5 UZR in center dating back to 2014, his first full season. The lefty-swinger complemented his excellent glove work with terrific offense from 2015-16, slashing .262/.345/.489 with 36 home runs and a .227 ISO in 891 plate appearances, but his production in that department took a step back last season. In 541 trips to the plate, Bradley hit a disappointing .245/.323/.402 and saw his ISO plummet to .158. On the positive side, Bradley still went deep 17 times, and he ranked as one of the premier baserunners in the game for the second straight year, according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
While it’s unclear what the Giants would have to give up for Bradley, he’d presumably bring back a solid haul as someone who still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn an easily affordable $5.9MM in 2018, which surely appeals to a San Francisco club that already has approximately $170MM committed to 16 players for next season and is trying to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Conversely, the Red Sox are more than willing to spend upward of $197MM if it means improving their offense, which struggled in 2017. Dealing Bradley and acquiring a big-hitting outfielder like Stanton or free agent J.D. Martinez would help them do that.
Quick Hits: Ohtani, McCann, Braves, Phillies
A few notes from around the game:
- Soon-to-be free agent ace/outfielder Shohei Ohtani spoke with the Associated Press and other media on Saturday about his desire to leave Japan for the major leagues this winter. “The other day I met with team officials and stated my intentions,” Ohtani said, referring to the Nippon Ham Fighters. “My request was met with warm words of support, so I hope to do my best in America from next year on.” The 23-year-old is renowned for both his pitching and hitting skills, but he noted that he’s “not a complete player yet,” which is his “strongest reason for wanting to go now.” While Ohtani does have “a strong desire” to continue as a two-way player in the majors, he admitted that he’s unsure if it’ll be possible.
- Astros catcher Brian McCann told Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday that he’d like to end his career as a member of the Braves, with whom he thrived from 2005-13. “One hundred percent,” said the 33-year-old McCann. “One hundred percent. This is my home. I played close to 10 years here. This organization is really, really, really close to my heart. I love this organization.” McCann, a Georgia native who still lives there, will be a free agent next offseason if the Astros decline his $15MM option. Braves backstops Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are also slated to hit the open market, which could pave the way for a McCann-Atlanta reunion in 2019 if the club’s interested in making it happen.
- The team that makes a surprise splash in free agency is most likely to be the Phillies, according to a group of executives and agents who spoke with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “They say they aren’t doing anything, but I have a feeling they will go after someone big,” an exec told Feinsand, who points to right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb as potential targets for the team. On paper, either would improve a Phillies rotation that ranked 19th in fWAR and 21st in ERA in 2017, when Aaron Nola was their only starter who turned in a particularly strong performance.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/11/17
The latest minor moves from around baseball:
- Former major league reliever Wesley Wright has ended his playing career to take a job as a pro scout with the Twins, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Wright, 32, combined for 307 innings with five teams – primarily the Astros – from 2008-15 and posted a 4.16 ERA, with 8.65 K/9 against 3.96 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate. The left-hander held same-sided hitters to a weak .234/.313/.334 line along the way. Wright spent part of 2017 with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate and got his release in July after struggling to a 4.88 ERA over 31 1/3 frames.