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Free Agent Spending By Team: American League

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As we covered earlier this week, almost all of the prominent free agents in this year’s class have already exited the board. Because of that, we’ll see more and more minor league signings and fewer and fewer major league deals in the weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. This has been an aggressive offseason in terms of spending, though. To this point, which teams have handed out the most guaranteed money via the open market? We’ll examine both leagues, but let’s begin with the AL (reminder: This exercise excludes trades, club options, extensions, waiver claims and Rule 5 selections)…

Yankees: $336.5MM on two players (Gerrit Cole and Brett Gardner; top 50 MLBTR signings: two)

Angels: $260.85MM on three players (Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran and Jason Castro; top 50 signings: three)

White Sox: $196.5MM on six players (Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Cishek and Gio Gonzalez; top 50 signings: five)

Twins: $151.8MM on eight players (Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Sergio Romo, Alex Avila, Rich Hill and Tyler Clippard; top 50 signings: four)

Blue Jays: $114.35MM on four players (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi and Travis Shaw; top 50 signings: two)

Rangers: $62.25MM on five players (Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos, Joely Rodriguez and Todd Frazier; top 50 signings: two)

Tigers: $17.8MM on four players (C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova; top 50 signings: one)

Astros: $15.65MM on three players (Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau; top 50 signings: zero)

Rays: $12MM on one player (Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; top 50 signings: zero)

Red Sox: $9.9MM on three players (Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki; top 50 signings: zero)

Athletics: $7.5MM on one player (Jake Diekman; top 50 signings: zero)

Royals: $6.95MM on two players (Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco; top 50 signings: zero)

Indians: $6.25MM on one player (Cesar Hernandez; top 50 signings: zero)

Orioles: $3MM on one player (Jose Iglesias; top 50 signings: zero)

Mariners: $2.95MM on two players (Kendall Graveman and Carl Edwards Jr.; top 50 signings: zero)

Indians Sign Dominic Leone, Anthony Gose

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The Indians announced a series of non-roster invitations to Major League Spring Training on Thursday, including veteran right-handed reliever Dominic Leone and outfielder-turned-reliever Anthony Gose.

Leone, a client of Frye-McCann Sports, spent the past two seasons with the Cardinals and has also logged big league time with the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Mariners. The Cardinals picked him up in the trade that sent Randal Grichuk to Toronto, but things didn’t go as planned for Leone in St. Louis. After pitching to a 2.56 ERA (and 2.94 FIP) with 10.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in his lone season as a Blue Jay, the now-28-year-old Leone stumbled to a 5.15 ERA/4.77 FIP in 64 2/3 innings as a Cardinal from 2018-19.

In 2018, Leone was plagued by a nerve issue in his arm that limited his time on the field, but he does carry a lifetime 3.92 ERA with better than a punchout per inning in 243 1/3 big league frames. He’ll now look to earn a fresh start in Cleveland — the fifth organization of his professional career.

Gose, now 29, was at one point ranked among the game’s best outfield prospects but simply never was able to put things together as a position player. The left-hander was a two-way star at the time he was drafted and tried his hand as a two-way player a couple seasons ago before committing fully to the mound in 2019.

Gose, who is represented by CAA, split the ’19 season between the Indians’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates, showing an ability to miss bats but also demonstrating substantial control problems that may not have been entirely unexpected for an outfielder who is converting to the mound. In 29 innings this past season, he posted a sterling 2.48 ERA with 35 strikeouts but also yielded an alarming 29 free passes with six hit batsmen. Clearly, there’s some potential within Gose, but he’ll need to hone in his control of the strike zone if he’s to emerge as a viable bullpen option at the MLB level.

Blue Jays Have “Checked In” On Francisco Lindor, Had Interest in Didi Gregorius

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Most of the Blue Jays’ offseason focus has been on obtaining starting pitching, with Travis Shaw standing out as the most significant addition to the position player mix.  However, Toronto has also looked into some major upgrades to the everyday lineup, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in Didi Gregorius before the free agent signed with Philadelphia.  In terms of players still potentially available, the Jays have also “checked in” with the Indians about a trade for Francisco Lindor.

It might be fair to characterize the Jays’ interest in Lindor as perhaps due diligence at this point.  As Davidi put it, “any sane front office” would naturally ask Cleveland about an All-Star player who has been the subject of trade rumors for months.  It doesn’t appear as though a Lindor trade (with the Jays or anyone) is happening any time soon, as both Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona have each recently indicated that Lindor isn’t being shopped.  While things could still change on that front, of course, the possibility of a Lindor deal decreased when the Tribe dealt Corey Kluber to the Rangers, thus lessening Cleveland’s payroll commitments for the 2020 season.

The multi-positional ability of young shortstop Bo Bichette and, in particular, incumbent second baseman Cavan Biggio factored into Toronto’s pursuits.  Both players expressed a willingness to change positions if it helps the team, and Biggio might end up playing a super-utility role regardless of who else the Jays might add.

Interestingly, Bichette wouldn’t have been changing positions had Gregorius been signed, as the Jays planned to use Gregorius as a second baseman.  GM Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro gave Bichette a heads-up about the Gregorius pursuit, with Bichette saying, “It was presented to me as, ’We’re going after Didi, don’t worry, we’ve already told him you’re our shortstop.’  I’d imagine that’s probably a reason why he didn’t come here.”

After also receiving interest from such teams as the Brewers, Giants, and Reds, Gregorius signed a one-year, $14MM contract with the Phillies to become their new regular shortstop.  (Gregorius himself displaced an incumbent shortstop in Jean Segura, who will now handle second base duties in Philadelphia.)  Toronto’s plan to deploy Gregorius at second base both indicates the club’s confidence in Bichette’s ability to handle the shortstop position and also some likely trepidation about Gregorius’ defensive ability going forward.  After coming back from Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2018, Gregorius’ glovework drew dire grades from the Defensive Runs Saved (-11) and infield outs above average (-13) metrics.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/18/20

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We’ll use this post to track some minor signings throughout the day…

  • The Indians added a pair of minor leaguers, the team announced (via Twitter). Southpaw Gunner Leger and catcher Yojhan Quevedo will report to minor league camp at the beginning of March. A Louisiana native originally drafted in the 26th round by the Miami Marlins, Leger, 24, instead returned to the University of Louisiana in his hometown of Lafayette, where he concluded a successful NCAA career after the 2019 season. Leger went 24-13 with a 2.44 ERA across 63 games, 53 starts in college. Williamsport fanatics might remember Leger as a first baseman and pitcher for a Lake Charles team that made it all the way to the United States finals before losing to perennial challenger, Hawaii, in 2008.
  • Quevedo, 26, is a Venezuelan native whose latest baseball action came in the Venezuelan Winter League each of the past two seasons. The catcher is clearly on the older end of the prospect spectrum, thought catchers often develop later. His latest output impressed with a .371/.378/.411 line across 136 plate appearances in the winter league.

Indians’ Francona: “Lindor Not On Trading Block”

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Indians’ manager Terry Francona spoke clearly and confidently during an appearance on MLB Network Radio’s Remember When (audio link). According to Francona, Francisco Lindor is not on the trading block.

“I can guarantee you we’re not trying to trade Lindor. We have him for two more years. Keeping him is everybody’s goal. Also know that keeping him and fielding a competitive team is a challenge in our market. There’s no getting around that. It’s not gonna be easy. I think that’s as honest as you can be.”

This jibes more-or-less with what we’ve been hearing out of Cleveland for most of the offseason. Still, Francona lends the message a certain gravitas. If the tone was more forceful, the content doesn’t differ all that significantly from the the equivocating trafficked by front offices. The Indians, like many teams, are in a position of financial maneuvering. The payroll limits imposed by ownership charge the baseball ops department to act creatively and consider options at which they’d otherwise scoff.

Doom and gloom aside, the Indians aren’t devoid of talent. Despite missing the playoffs in 2019 to a Twins team that’s continued their full court press this winter, the Indians are coming off their fourth consecutive 90-win season. They won just one less game in 2020 than in 2016, the year they won the pennant.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger

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4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).

Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.

1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.

The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.

Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.

This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.

Antonetti Again Downplays Possibility Of Lindor Trade

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Francisco Lindor sat atop the wishlist of many fans and front offices alike throughout the holiday season, as teams ranging from the Dodgers to the Reds to the Mets were all repeatedly reported to have interest in Lindor. However, Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti has stated in the past that he expects Lindor to be his Opening Day shortstop, and he was emphatic in reiterating that belief in a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon (audio link).

“Yes, I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Antonetti said when asked about the persistent trade rumors surrounding Lindor. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed, but that’s still our expectation. I’ve tried to be pretty consistent with this. I have never had a different expectation other than Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day.”

Despite Antonetti’s public, straightforward stance, there’s nevertheless been plenty of reporting on clubs with interest and speculation on trade packages that could appeal to the Indians. Names like Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Nick Senzel and Jeff McNeil have been kicked about the rumor mill in various writings on Lindor, but Antonetti strongly suggested that he’s not the one initiating any talks on Lindor.

“I can’t control the conduct of other teams and them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things,” Antonetti continued. “As I’ve shared with you, we have a responsibility to be responsive to those teams when they engage with us. I can say that we’ve had conversations on the majority of our Major League roster and a bunch of players in our minor league system over the course of the offseason. The majority of those guys, with the exception of just a couple, are still with us.”

The Indians, of course, pulled the trigger on a Corey Kluber trade last month and have been widely reported to be aiming to scale back their payroll after reaching record levels on the heels of their 2016 World Series run. But Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll is projected to check in shy of $100MM — shy of $95MM if Jason Kipnis’ buyout is counted against last year’s budget — placing them well south of their Opening Day marks in 2019 ($119MM), 2018 ($135MM) and 2017 ($124MM). As such, it’s unlikely that there’s any financial pressure to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Moreover, despite their trade of Kluber, the Indians aren’t embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort heading into 2020. They’re still intent on contending with the reigning AL Central champion Twins and the vastly improved White Sox as they look to take advantage of another year in which at least 40 percent of the division is rebuilding. Trading Lindor, even for a package of appealing MLB-ready talent, harms their chances of doing so.

It’s surely a frustrating carousel for Antonetti, as rumors of interest in Lindor won’t cease until Opening Day — and that will only bring a temporary reprieve. Even if Lindor remains with the club, he’ll surely be at least mentioned leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, even if the Indians are in the thick of the division race as most expect them to be. Reports of teams showing interest in Lindor and working to pry him from Cleveland’s grasp will persist, but Antonetti’s latest comments serve as yet another reminder that an actual trade involving the 26-year-old four-time All-Star isn’t especially likely.

Tigers Acquire Eric Haase, Designate Dario Agrazal

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The Tigers announced today that they have acquired catcher Eric Haase from the Indians for cash considerations. To create roster space, they designated righty Dario Agrazal for assignment.

Haase was recently designated by the Cleveland organization, so it’s not surprising to see him change hands. The 27-year-old has seen brief MLB action in each of the past two seasons. He turned in a power-heavy .226/.315/.517 batting line with 28 home runs in 401 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019.

Agrazal is himself back in DFA limbo after the Pirates designated and traded him to Detroit back in November. The 24-year-old received a long look in 2019 but managed only a 4.91 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 73 1/3 frames.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mike Clevinger

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger only started 21 games in 2019, but when he was healthy, he was dominant. Despite being limited to 126 innings, the 29-year-old had a 13-4 record and 2.71 ERA with 169 strikeouts — all numbers that will factor strongly into his arbitration case. In his career, Clevinger already has a 41-21 record and a 3.20 ERA in 500 2/3 innings. My model projects him at $4.5MM the first time through arbitration, but finding comparables is tricky due to his missed time in his platform year.

Mike Clevinger | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

To look for comparables, I focused on a rather narrow scope: first-time eligible pitchers in the past five years who pitched between 75 and 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in their platform year and who had 35-plus career wins.

Gerrit Cole in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks in 2018 were the only two pitchers to match those specifications. The former got $3.75MM, and the latter got $4.18MM. Both of those pitchers only won seven games in their platform season, however. Cole did have 47 career wins, topping Clevinger’s 41, but his platform ERA of 3.88 is clearly worse than Clevinger’s 2.71. Hendricks is more comparable, with a robust 2.94 career ERA that is similar to Clevinger’s 3.20. Hendricks’ 38-22 record favorably compares to Clevinger’s 41-21 mark as well. Hendricks makes for a pretty good comp, and adding two years of inflation onto his first-time arbitration salary would probably put Clevinger right around the $4.5MM that the model projects for him.

Another potential comparable who had fewer career wins and a weaker platform season, but was otherwise fairly similar, is Jacob deGrom back in 2017. He went 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 148 innings in his platform year, but he had a 2.74 career ERA and a 30-22 record with 479 1/3 innings. DeGrom got $3.9MM his first time through arbitration. This is a likely floor for Clevinger—it seems clear that he should safely exceed $4MM.

What is tricky about first-time eligible pitchers is that for more than a decade, they have rarely broken the $4.5MM barrier. Three pitchers did as part of multi-year deals: Tim Lincecum in 2010, Clayton Kershaw in 2012, and Lance Lynn in 2015. However, Kershaw had a Cy Young Award on his resume, and Lincecum had two. Lynn was a unique multi-year deal that was extremely flat (three years, $22MM), so the $7MM attributed to the first year is not really a reliable number on which to base any Clevinger predictions. The only first-time eligible pitcher who signed a one-year deal worth more than $4.5MM was Dallas Keuchel, who landed a $7.25MM salary after earning a Cy Young Award.

All told, when you consider Clevinger being limited to 21 starts in 2019, he seems unlikely to be the one who breaks the $4.5MM barrier that has been so difficult for first-time pitchers to surpass. However, it also seems likely that he should hit Hendricks’ $4.18MM salary — and probably exceed it. Viewed through this lens, Clevinger appears likely to get close to his model-projected salary.

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