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Guardians Outright Carlos Hernández

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Aug. 22: Hernández went unclaimed on waivers and indeed accepted an outright to Triple-A Columbus, per Tim Stebbins of MLB.com.

Aug. 20: The Guardians announced that right-hander Carlos Hernández has been designated for assignment. That’s the corresponding move to select left-hander Parker Messick, a move which was previously reported.

Hernández, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Tigers three weeks ago. Since then, he has tossed seven innings for the Guards, allowing three earned runs but with three walks and just three strikeouts.

The righty has some intriguing attributes but he has struggled lately and is out of options. That has pushed him into fringe roster territory. Dating back to March, he has gone from the Royals to the Phillies, Tigers and Guardians via waiver claims. Now that he’s been designated for assignment and the trade deadline has passed, he will be available on waivers again in the coming days.

Hernández averages in the upper 90s with both his fastball and sinker, in addition to throwing a splitter, slider and knuckle curve. He has occasionally used that arsenal to post some interesting numbers. In 2023, for instance, he logged 70 innings for the Royals. His 5.27 earned run average obviously wasn’t great but he struck out 25.7% of batters faced, a strong figure. His 10.3% walk rate was a tad high but close to normal for a power reliever. In 2024, he dropped his ERA to 3.30, though his strikeout rate fell to 20.9% as his walk rate ticked up to 12.4%.

This year, as he has bounced around the league, he has posted a 6.23 ERA in 43 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate has dropped again, sitting at 19.2% so far. As mentioned, those results and his out-of-options status have led to him continually getting bounced to the waiver wire.

It’s still possible another club out there sees some upside. As mentioned, the pitch mix is enticing. Hernández is also theoretically controllable via arbitration for another two seasons after this one. For a rebuilding club, there would be an argument for taking a flier. However, he is already making $1.16MM this year and would be due a nominal raise for 2026, so it also wouldn’t be a shock if teams find it hard to roster him.

If this is the time he clears waivers, he would have the right to elect free agency but likely wouldn’t do so. Players with at least three years of service time have the right to reject outright assignments but need five years of service to exercise that right and keep their remaining salary commitments. Hernández is between three and five years, meaning he would have to walk away from about $245K to head to the open market. He will likely stay and collect that money but then would be able to elect free agency at season’s end if not added back to the roster beforehand.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

MLB, ESPN Nearing Deal Involving MLB.TV And In-Market Rights For Five Clubs

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Major League Baseball and ESPN are seemingly going to continue their relationship but with a new shape. Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reports that the league and the network have an agreement in place which would give ESPN the right to sell all out-of-market games digitally. These rights have previously been sold by the league to consumers as the MLB.TV package. Under the agreement, ESPN will also acquire the in-market rights for the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres, Rockies and Twins. ESPN would also have an exclusive weekly game similar to Sunday Night Baseball, but on a different night of the week. The deal is not yet finalized but could be signed in September. It’s unclear how much ESPN would pay the league for this package but Marchand says it will be “substantial”.

MLB and ESPN have an existing contract but it is about to expire. The deal previously ran through 2028 but both sides agreed to opt out after the 2025 season. Under that deal, ESPN still has the rights to Sunday Night Baseball, the Home Run Derby and the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Those rights are open for 2026 and beyond. A week ago, Marchand reported that those rights would likely be split up and sold to multiple companies, with Netflix being the favorite for the Derby while NBC/Peacock and Apple TV+ are each trying to get the other components. He echoes that framing in today’s reporting.

The new developments today are potentially seismic. MLB.TV has existed in essentially the same format since 2002. Baseball fans purchase the product through the league and get access to every MLB game, with some exceptions for local blackouts and other games guaranteed to be exclusives for certain broadcasters. If this deal goes through, it’s not exactly clear how it would impact existing MLB.TV consumers but Marchand writes they would likely have to get an ESPN subscription on top of an MLB.TV subscription. It’s unclear how this would impact those who purchase MLB.TV through cable or other linear subscription.

ESPN recently launched a streaming service, allowing anyone to pay $29.99 per month to access the network’s wares, whether or not they subscribe to cable or satellite. The network has recently been building out their portfolio, signing a number of deals with the NFL and WWE.

It now seems they hope to add a number of MLB components to their menu. It’s unclear exactly how MLB.TV customers would be impacted financially. Marchand reports that the basic MLB.TV sticker price should stay the same or could even drop. Paying the ESPN subscription fee as well would lead to customers paying more, though they would also gain access to other ESPN offerings outside of the baseball world. That new arrangement would naturally be a plus for some but a minus for others.

In addition to the MLB.TV plan, it seems ESPN will be gaining local rights for five clubs. Due to cable cutting, the regional sports network (RSN) model has been slowly eroding in recent years. The five aforementioned clubs have all seen their local broadcast deals collapse in recent years, which has led the league to step in and take over. Fans of those clubs have been able to purchase streaming rights, without blackouts, directly from the league. It seems likely these customers will be able to continue in a somewhat similar fashion, though Marchand suggests they would likely have to get an ESPN subscription and then pay an added fee for the specific team they want to access.

In addition to the MLB.TV rights and the local rigths of those five clubs, ESPN will also be getting the rights for some exclusive games to be broadcast nationally. It seems this will basically function the same way as Sunday Night Baseball, though on a different day of the week. It appears the details in this arena are still being worked out, as it’s unclear which day of the week is being targeted. Apple already has the rights to a game every Friday while Roku has an early game every Sunday. Marchand adds that MLB Network could also be part of the deal but that’s more up in the air.

Whatever deal is signed would be fairly temporary. Various different reporters have frequently suggested the league doesn’t want to sign anything that goes beyond 2028. They already have a number of deals expiring after that season. It seems commissioner Rob Manfred is hoping to market a large package, or packages, of rights to multiple broadcasters ahead of the 2029 season. All recent broadcast deals have been relatively short, with nothing going beyond 2028. Marchand reports that is expected to be the case with this ESPN deal as well.

These ongoing broadcast shuffles could hang over the upcoming labor strife. It is widely expected that there will be a lockout after the 2026 season. A prolonged stoppage could lead to games being cancelled in the 2027 season. Manfred and the owners would have to be cognizant of playing chicken with the players and how that could impact these broadcast negotiations. MLB is currently experiencing an uptick in popularity, with measures such as the pitch clock credited with increased attendance and TV ratings. That kind of momentum would help the league sell future broadcast rights but a lockout extending into the summer of 2027 could undermine that.

Photo courtesy of Kirby Lee, Imagn Images

Guardians To Promote Parker Messick

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The Guardians list left-hander Parker Messick as the probable starter for tomorrow’s series finale in Arizona. He’ll go opposite Brandon Pfaadt in his major league debut. Cleveland has an opening on the 40-man roster after outrighting reliever Trevor Stephan last week. They’ll only need to make an active roster transaction tomorrow.

Messick, 24, was a second-round pick out of Florida State in 2022. The 6’0″ southpaw has never blown evaluators away with his velocity, but he has carved through minor league hitters behind an excellent changeup. Messick has only used the changeup around a quarter of the time in Triple-A this year. He has gone to his four-seam fastball, which sits between 92 and 93 MPH, half the time. He has both a slider and curveball, neither of which get more than fringe-average grades from scouts, and infrequently uses a sinker.

It has seemingly left evaluators split on his value. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank him between 12th and 15th in the Cleveland farm system, projecting him as a stable back-end arm. Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs has him much higher, slotting him fourth among Guardians prospects and among the top 50 prospects in the sport. Longenhagen projects Messick as a league average starter and grades the changeup as a potential plus-plus offering. While it doesn’t seem there’s a huge gap in his perceived upside, FanGraphs appears to place a higher value than do the other outlets on Messick’s big league proximity and minor league success.

That’s all the more true now that Messick has shown it at the top minor league level. After recording 165 strikeouts between High-A and Double-A a year ago, he has spent this whole season at Triple-A Columbus. Messick has turned in a 3.47 earned run average across 20 starts, striking out 29% of batters faced. He has issued walks at a career-high 10.3% clip while averaging fewer than five innings per start, but he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his past seven appearances.

Messick last pitched on Thursday, so he’ll be operating with an extra day of rest. The Guardians optioned Joey Cantillo over the weekend, giving Messick a good chance to hold a rotation spot for the rest of the season. John Means could be a late-season factor as he works back from elbow surgery, though that could also come in long relief. For now, Messick slots behind Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen in Stephen Vogt’s starting five. The Guardians have fallen three games back in the Wild Card picture after being swept by Atlanta over the weekend.

Guardians Outright Trevor Stephan

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The Guardians passed right-handed reliever Trevor Stephan through outright waivers and assigned him to Triple-A Columbus, per Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. That removes him from the 40-man roster, but Stephan will remain with the organization.

While Stephan could have rejected the assignment, doing so would’ve meant forfeiting the remainder of this season’s $2.3MM salary, all of next year’s $3.5MM salary and the $1.25MM buyout on his 2027 club option. Stephan is about a month shy of reaching the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but still retain his salary.

The now-29-year-old was a breakout reliever for the 2022 Guardians, tossing 63 2/3 innings with a 2.69 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 19 holds. Cleveland signed him to a four-year, $10MM extension with a pair of club options prior to the 2023 season. He tallied 28 holds that year but saw his rate stats and velocity dip. In spring of 2024, Stephan was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s yet to make it back to a major league mound.

Stephan has had his rehab assignment stopped and restarted a couple times this summer. Cleveland activated him from the 60-day IL in late July and optioned him to Columbus. He’s pitched 13 2/3 innings in the minors this year and been rocked for a 9.22 ERA, although nine of the runs against him came in a brutal pair of back-to-back outings around the All-Star break. Over his past five appearances, Stephan has looked more like himself. He’s tossed five shutout frames and fanned five opponents — albeit with four walks issued in that time as well.

Stephan’s outright is the latest in an overhaul of a Cleveland bullpen that looked almost unbeatable when he and Emmanuel Clase were regularly handling the eighth and ninth innings. Stephan’s future is at least somewhat up in the air, in light of his injuries and struggles during rehab work, while Clase’s outlook is even cloudier. He’s been on administrative leave since July 28 in connection with an MLB investigation into violations of the league’s sports-betting policy. Clase and teammate Luis Ortiz are on leave through Aug. 31, though if the investigation hasn’t concluded at that point, the leave can be extended even further.

Righties Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis now stand as the top two leverage options in manager Stephen Vogt’s bullpen.

Poll: Who Had The Best Deadline In The AL Central?

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The trade deadline has come and gone. While trade season was slow to get started this year, when all was said and done, there were several dozen trades made in a flurry of movement over the final few days before the deadline arrived. The full impact of these trades won’t be known for years to come, but that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze the deals and decide whose haul looks the best right now. Over the next week-plus, MLBTR will be running a series of polls asking which club in each division had the best deadline. So far, the Phillies, Reds, Padres, and Mariners have each come out on top in their respective divisions. Today, we’ll be continuing on with the American League with the AL Central. A look at each of the five clubs, listed from best to worst record in 2025:

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have the biggest lead in their division in all of baseball, and that might have led them to a much more cautious deadline than previously expected. Aside from a handful of minor trades of players (Matt Manning, Dietrich Enns, Brewer Hicklen) who had been squeezed off of the 40-man roster, the Tigers acquired seven pitchers across six trades. It was clearly a quantity over quality approach, however, as the rotation was deepened by adding Charlie Morton (5.42 ERA at the time of the trade) and Chris Paddack (4.95 ERA at the time of the trade) to the back of the staff.

That pair of starters was joined by five relievers: Randy Dobnak, Codi Heuer, Rafael Montero, Paul Sewald, and Kyle Finnegan. Dobnak and Heuer have both made just one MLB appearance this year. Montero carried a 5.40 ERA when he arrived in Detroit, and Sewald won’t pitch again until September due to injury. That leaves Finnegan and his 95 ERA+ in a Nationals uniform this year as the most impactful addition of the Tigers’ deadline this year, at least on paper. While Detroit added plenty of pitching depth to the roster without surrendering any of the prospects within their Top 15 according to Baseball America, it’s hard not to see a quiet deadline in what could be Tarik Skubal’s penultimate season with the club as a potential missed opportunity.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians’ performance this trade season must be viewed in the context of the potentially franchise-altering reality that struck just days before the deadline: superstar closer Emmanuel Clase, a potential trade candidate and foundational piece of the Guardians’ roster, was placed on administrative leave as part of a sports betting investigation. That news not only severely damaged whatever hopes the Guardians may have had of making it to the playoffs this year, but also took one of their most valuable trade chips off the market.

That led the Guards to make just two trades this summer: one that shipped Sewald to the Tigers for a player to be named later or cash, and a second one that sent Shane Bieber to Toronto for right-hander Khal Stephen. Both trades were sensible moves. Stephen is a particularly well-regarded prospect to receive for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown at the big league level this year, and the Sewald trade cleared the remainder of a currently injured rental reliever’s $7MM salary. Bigger than the moves they did make, arguably, is the ones they did not: outfielder Steven Kwan and star reliever Cade Smith, among other rumored trade candidates, remain in Cleveland as controllable building blocks for the future.

Kansas City Royals

Despite sitting around .500 for the majority of the year, the Royals were actually the most aggressive buyer in their division. They made their intention to eschew selling clear when they extended Seth Lugo on a deal that could keep him in town through the end of the 2028 season. Aside from locking up Lugo, the Royals deepened their lineup and pitching staff.

A trio of controllable, starting-caliber arms were brought in to join Lugo and Michael Wacha in the short-term while providing depth behind Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic for the future. Bailey Falter was acquired from the Pirates, while the Royals surrendered backup catcher Freddy Fermin to the Padres in a deal that netted both Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Aside from those rotation additions, the club made a trio of rental acquisitions to try and boost the offense. Adam Frazier is unlikely to be a needle-mover, but both Mike Yastrzemski and Randal Grichuk have been impactful complementary pieces for playoff clubs in the past.

Even if the Royals end up missing the postseason, they won’t have lost much by pushing in this year; their best trade chip (Bubic) suffered a season-ending injury shortly before the deadline, and No. 15 prospect (per Baseball America) Yunior Marte was the top young talent they surrendered (in return for Yastrzemski).

Minnesota Twins

The Twins completely changed the trajectory of the trade deadline when they kicked off a massive fire sale. The club made ten trades in total while moving 11 players out of the organization. Paddack and Dobnak were shipped to Detroit in a deal for catching/first base prospect Enrique Jimenez that also cleared the remainder of Dobnak’s low-cost but ill-fated $9.25MM extension off the books. Rentals Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe were shipped out in deals that should help to fill out the middle ranks of the Minnesota farm system. Fellow rental Ty France was packaged with dominant young reliever Louis Varland to bring back a big league-ready outfielder, Alan Roden, and Triple-A southpaw Kendry Rojas (The new No. 7 prospect in the Twins’ revamped system, according to MLB Pipeline).

Varland wasn’t the only star reliever to move. The Twins traded both Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax to the Phillies and Rays, respectively. Duran netted a pair of top-100 prospects from the Phils, who surrendered catcher Eduardo Tait and right-hander Mick Abel to get the deal done. Jax was traded away in a one-for-one swap that brought back young starter Taj Bradley. A slightly less impactful bullpen arm with control remaining was also moved when Brock Stewart was shipped to the Dodgers in a deal for post-hype outfielder James Outman. Of course, the most shocking trade of the deadline was the Twins’ decision to deal Carlos Correa back to the Astros in what amounted to a salary dump. 26-year-old High-A southpaw Matt Mikulski was the only player who Correa brought back to Minnesota, even as the Twins ate $33MM of the $103.5MM Correa is owed going forward.

On the one hand, the Twins undeniably did well with the return for several of the players they moved. Abel, Bradley, and Rojas form a wave of young, upper-level starting pitching talent that could impact the team as soon as 2026. They should form an organizational strength in conjunction with young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa going forward. On the other hand, dumping two-thirds of Correa’s salary for no prospect return and decimating a bullpen that has been a major strength are tough pills to swallow for fans.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox had a surprisingly quiet deadline for one of the league’s most obvious sellers. They acquired Will Robertson and Blake Sabol while dealing away Tristan Gray in three separate cash deals with the AL East, though none of those moves is much of a needle-mover. Outside of those minor transactions, they added a rental veteran starter in Aaron Civale and change-of-scenery first baseman Andrew Vaughn to the Brewers in order to get the deal done. Vaughn has blossomed (albeit in a small sample) with Milwaukee, which would surely be easier for fans in Chicago to swallow had the White Sox managed to flip Civale for a prospect return. Civale is pitching well of late but remains on the South Side.

The White Sox made just two sell-side trades ahead of the deadline. Outfielder Austin Slater was shipped to the Yankees in a deal that brought back right-hander Gage Ziehl (the club’s new No. 14 prospect, per Pipeline), and the biggest deal of the club’s deadline sent righty Adrian Houser to Tampa. In return for Houser, the White Sox brought in infielder Curtis Mead, Triple-A reliever Ben Peoples, and Triple-A starter Duncan Davitt. Davitt seems likely to be a back-end starter or swingman in the mold of Houser. Peoples seems unlikely to be more than a middle reliever. Still, it’s a solid return for a rental arm signed in-season, particularly when considering that Mead was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport just a few short years ago. Chicago didn’t make many trades for a selling club, but the ones they made look like strong ones.

Most surprising was the South Siders’ decision to hang onto Luis Robert Jr. The talented center fielder finally began to come alive at the plate in early June, and many thought the Sox would capitalize on his first productive stretch since 2023 to bring in some young talent, even if it meant paying down Robert’s contract. Instead, they held onto Robert and will now consider picking up the first of two $20MM club options for the 2026 season. If Robert keeps raking down the stretch, it may prove to bring a better return in the long run (assuming he eventually is traded), but there’s plenty of risk in this approach.

No division in baseball did less buying than the AL Central this year. While the Royals made some savvy additions and the Tigers at least bolstered their depth, no impact additions were made as the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox all focused on selling at varying levels. Who did the best of this quintet during trade season? Have your say in the poll below:

Vince Velasquez To Sign With KBO’s Lotte Giants

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The Guardians announced this morning that right-hander Vince Velasquez will sign with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization for the remainder of the season. Velasquez has been pitching with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. His contract is being sold to the Giants, who’ll send cash back to Cleveland. Velasquez and his agents at CAA have surely negotiated a deal with the Giants that’ll pay the right-hander more than he’d have received by playing out the remainder of his minor league deal with the Guardians.

Velasquez, 33, hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023. The Guardians selected his contract to the big league roster back in late April, but he was designated for assignment a few days later before ever getting into a game. He could’ve rejected the subsequent outright assignment after he cleared waivers, but he opted to remain with the organization.

In 81 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level this year, Velasquez has pitched to a 3.42 ERA with a strong 26.8% strikeout rate but an ugly 14.1% walk rate. Velasquez has averaged fewer than 4 2/3 innings per start, though some of that workload was limited by design. The right-hander had elbow surgery back in June 2023 and missed all of the 2024 season as a result. Cleveland didn’t push him past 4 1/3 innings in an outing until late May. Velasquez still isn’t regularly working deep into games, but he’s pitched into the sixth inning in seven of his past 12 starts and averaged five frames per start along the way.

Selected by the Astros with the 58th overall draft pick back in 2010, Velasquez has pitched in parts of nine major league seasons. He’s totaled 763 2/3 innings with a 4.88 earned run average, 24.9% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate in that time.

In 2025, Velasquez has gotten stronger as the season has worn on (3.17 ERA over his past 12 starts). He’s sitting 92.5 mph with his fastball — down a couple miles from his peak levels — and complementing that four-seamer with a slider, knuckle curve, changeup and sinker (in order of usage rate).

To make room for Velasquez, the Giants are slated to waive left-hander Tucker Davidson, per a report from the Chosun Ilbo (a South Korean news outlet). Davidson has pitched to a 3.65 ERA on the season, including six innings of one-run ball last night in his tenth win of the season. The team had concerns about Davidson’s lack of consistency, per the report, and opted to make a change before the KBO’s Aug. 15 postseason eligibility deadline for foreign signees (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO).

Davidson, 29, has pitched in parts of five major league seasons between the Braves, Angels and Orioles. The lefty once ranked as one of the more promising arms in Atlanta’s system but has totaled 129 2/3 innings with a rocky 5.76 ERA in the majors.

Guardians Promote C.J. Kayfus

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Today: The Guardians made it official, selecting Kayfus’s contract from Triple-A. In additional roster moves, the Guardians activated right-hander (and recent waiver claim) Carlos Hernández and optioned outfielder Johnathan Rodríguez and left-hander Tim Herrin to Triple-A.

August 1: The Guardians are calling up first baseman/corner outfielder C.J. Kayfus, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Cleveland has an opening on the 40-man roster and only needs to make an active roster transaction.

Kayfus, 23, was Cleveland’s third-round pick in the 2023 draft. The Miami product has raked sine entering pro ball. He hit .291/.393/.511 between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season. Kayfus hit .364 in 18 games to begin this year in Double-A. The Guards bumped him to Triple-A Columbus by the end of April. That hasn’t much slowed him down, as he’s hitting .283/.367/.526 across 289 plate appearances. Kayfus has popped 13 homers with 14 doubles and four triples.

There is some swing-and-miss concern. The lefty-batting Kayfus has punched out in a quarter of his trips to the dish with Columbus. He takes a decent number of walks but has posted higher than average whiff rates. That’s somewhat alarming for a player at bat-first positions. Kayfus has overcome that to post excellent numbers at every stop. That includes more than three months at the top minor league level.

The upper level success has made Kayfus one of the better prospects in the league. He places among the back half on updated Top 100 lists at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He ranks a little lower in the estimation of Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, who placed him ninth in the Cleveland system in late May. Kayfus is listed at 6’0″ and 192 pounds. He doesn’t have the usual size or plus raw power of most first basemen, but he has an extended track record of hitting dating back to his time as an amateur.

Kayfus has experience at both corner outfield positions. He’s a fringe-average runner who has enough athleticism to be a functional outfielder, though he’s viewed as an above-average defender at his natural position. Longenhagen writes that his well below-average arm strength should probably limit him to left field work when he is needed in the outfield.

Barring a Steven Kwan injury, the Guardians aren’t going to give Kayfus much left field playing time. Neither Nolan Jones nor Daniel Schneemann are performing well in right, so perhaps the Guardians will plug Kayfus into right field and live with the lack of arm strength. The other option would be to move on from Carlos Santana. The veteran first baseman is hitting .230/.321/.345 in 407 plate appearances. That includes a .195/.267/.284 showing since the beginning of June. Cleveland is paying Santana $12MM and strongly values him as a clubhouse presence, but it’s difficult to live with that kind of offense at first base.

Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.

Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.

That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings, with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.

The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits allowed.

It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.

It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.

Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.

They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68 ERA. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.

It’s a solid group but one lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.

Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.

Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.

A pessimist would say that Bieber has been on the downslope for years. An optimist would say that Bieber’s elbow was probably hampering him long before he went under the knife and that he can get back to his dominant form with a clean bill of health. The Jays probably aren’t sure themselves which view is more correct but they’re putting some chips on the latter.

As of now, a best-case scenario for the Jays would see Bieber dominate through a playoff run, at which point he would opt out and return to free agency. It’s possible that they try to alter that path by signing him to a new deal. They have done a trade-and-extend before. They acquired Berríos from the Twins at the 2021 deadline, when he had a year and a half of club control left. A few months later, they signed him to a lengthy extension. Presumably, they will want to wait to see how things go in the next few weeks or months, but that is a theoretical possibility with Bieber.

Whether that happens or not, they have perhaps crossed a notable line by acquiring Bieber. RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number above $284MM with Bieber added. That’s just an estimate but going over $281MM would mean Toronto’s top 2026 draft pick would be moved back by ten slots. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more breathing room, having them at $273MM. That yet doesn’t include Bieber.

A player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bieber is still owed about $19.33MM over a season and a third. That works out to a CBT hit of about $14.5MM. Prorating that over the final third of the season would add a bit less than $5MM to Toronto’s CBT number. According to Cot’s, acquiring Bieber wouldn’t put them over the line. Clarity on that might not come until later and the Jays might alter the picture with other moves.

For the Guardians, they have hovered around contention for a lot of the year. However, they have struggled a bit in recent months. They’re not totally buried, currently just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. But they recently lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. It seems they have decided they’d rather sell than try to make a push this year. Recent reporting has suggested they would look to move Bieber and outfielder Steven Kwan, though the latter ultimately stayed in Cleveland.

By giving up a wild card in Bieber, the Guardians have added an arm with a strong chance to help them in the future. Stephen, 22, was Toronto’s second-round pick last year. This year, he has already climbed from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he has logged 91 2/3 innings with a 2.06 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranks Stephen the #5 prospect in the Jays’ system. He has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and cutter. FanGraphs recently published an updated top 100 list ahead of the deadline with Stephen up at #80 in the league.

It’s a nice swap for the Guards, turning a wild card 30-year-old who was maybe about to become a free agent into a potential future rotation building block. For the Jays, it’s a risky ploy, but they’re clearly shooting for upside. The roster is already fairly well rounded with good contributors throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they had interest in closers Jhoan Durán and Mason Miller, though those arms have been traded to the Phillies and Padres, respectively.  Instead, closer to the trade deadline the Jays were able to land Louis Varland from the Twins in a surprise deal.

For now, the Jays can keep their five-man rotation intact. In the coming weeks, perhaps someone will have to be bumped out for Bieber, maybe after he makes another rehab start or two. The Jays also have Alek Manoah on a rehab assignment, working back from his own Tommy John surgery. It’s an interesting cluster of talent as the club looks to make a push through October.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Lange, D. Ross Cameron, Bruce Newman, Imagn Images

Guardians Claim Carlos Hernandez

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The Guardians claimed right-hander Carlos Hernandez off waivers from the Tigers, according to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins.  Detroit designated Hernandez for assignment last week. Cleveland also activated reliever Trevor Stephan from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A.

The veteran reliever has now changed teams via waiver claim for the third time in a little over four months.  Hernandez had spent his entire career in the Royals organization before the Phillies claimed him away in March, then the Tigers plucked him off the waiver wire in mid-June.  Both of those teams gave Hernandez some action at the MLB level, and the righty has a 6.69 ERA over 36 1/3 combined innings with Philadelphia (25 games) and Detroit (11 games).

Hernandez’s 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate this year are pretty close to his career marks over six Major League seasons, and Hernandez has a career 5.17 ERA in 292 2/3 innings.  Now out of minor league options, Hernandez can’t be assigned to the minors without first being exposed to waivers, hence his increasingly frequent trips to DFA limbo.

He does have two years of arbitration control remaining, and teams have been interested enough in his stuff to add him on multiple claims now, with the Guardians being the latest to see if Hernandez can offer more with a change of scenery.  Cleveland’s pitching development system could perhaps unlock something in the right-hander, who is still only 28 years old.  Owed just the remainder of a $1.16MM salary for 2025, Hernandez is a pretty inexpensive depth arm to the Guardians’ bullpen.

Tigers Acquire Paul Sewald

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The Tigers are acquiring right-hander Paul Sewald from the Guardians, according to a report from Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Cleveland will receive a player to be named later or cash from Detroit to complete the deal. Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the Tigers are taking on the remainder of Sewald’s contract in its entirety, which Olney estimates is about a $2MM commitment.

Sewald, 35, was one of the better closers in the league with the Mariners just a few short years ago. After debuting with the Mets all the way back in 2017 and spending some time in New York as an up-and-down middle reliever with mediocre results, Sewald came to Seattle in 2021 and pitched to a 2.88 ERA with a 3.34 FIP across 171 2/3 innings of work with the club while racking up 52 saves across parts of three seasons. He was swapped to the Diamondbacks at the 2023 trade deadline and began to struggle after leaving the Pacific Northwest. While he remained a closer for the majority of his time in Arizona and managed to pick up an additional 29 saves during that time, his results were pedestrian as he pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 4.29 FIP. After striking out 35.0% of his opponents with the Mariners, that figure dropped to just 25.7% during his time with Arizona.

That middling performance in the desert left Sewald to enter free agency last winter in a less than ideal spot. He ended up signing with the Guardians on a one-year, $7MM guarantee back in January but has not lived up to that contract so far. The right-hander has been placed on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain two separate times this year; once back in April and once just two weeks ago. He’s only managed to make 18 appearances around those injury woes, and hasn’t exactly impressed during those outings with a 4.70 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 15 1/3 innings of work. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes that Sewald is currently expected to return in early September, meaning he’ll be a late-season addition to the club’s bullpen at best.

All of that explains why the Tigers were able to take Sewald off Cleveland’s hands for little more than salary relief, but it’s still not hard to see why Detroit would be intrigued. The veteran righty is still punching out batters at a high level, with a 29.0% strikeout rate this year. He was managing to keep his walks under control as well, allowing free passes at a 6.5% clip that leaves him with his best K-BB% since 2022. A .297 BABIP that’s slightly elevated by his standards and an extremely low 65.2% strand rate suggest there could be some poor fortune when it comes to batted balls and sequencing baked into Sewald’s lackluster results, offering optimism for better days ahead. Perhaps most importantly, the elevated home run rates that have dogged Sewald throughout his career could be mitigated in Detroit given the cavernous outfield of Comerica Park.

Sewald is the fourth pitcher Detroit has added in recent days, joining relievers Rafael Montero and Randy Dobnak as well as starter Chris Paddack. All four of those additions are relatively low-impact veterans, with Paddack slotting firmly into the back of Detroit’s rotation while Montero and Dobnak are both little more than middle relievers. Sewald has the upside of a quality set-up man, but won’t be able to pitch at all for another month at least. Overall, it’s a volume approach to the deadline for a club that entered the summer with a clear need in the bullpen. Sewald won’t unilaterally solve the Tigers’ need for a late-inning reliever to pair with Will Vest, but he could represent a viable fallback option in case a larger deal for a more impactful piece doesn’t ultimately come together in the final hours before this afternoon’s deadline.

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