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2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez

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The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.

Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).

Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.

Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.

The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Reds Have Shown Interest In Corey Seager

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The Reds came into the winter ripe for an upgrade at shortstop, but they haven’t done much at the position thus far. The club’s biggest move there has been picking up light-hitting veteran Freddy Galvis’ $5.5MM option. As things stand, Galvis is slated to enter 2020 as the Reds’ starter at short, though they have their sights set on a much more notable option. Cincinnati has “shown interest in” the Dodgers’ Corey Seager throughout the offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

There is no indication the Dodgers are about to trade Seager, nor is it clear what the Reds would be willing to give up for him. No doubt, though, he’d cost a significant amount in assets. Seager, who debuted in 2015, won NL Rookie of the Year honors the next season, has earned a pair of All-Star nods, and has established himself as one of the game’s most well-rounded shortstops. While the past two seasons were injury-truncated campaigns for Seager, the 25-year-old nonetheless put up 3.3 fWAR and hit .272/.335/.483 with 19 home runs across 541 plate appearances in 2019.

Any team acquiring Seager would be getting a player with two arbitration-eligible seasons left, not to mention someone who’s projected to rake in a more-than-reasonable $7.1MM in 2020. The Dodgers – despite a fairly quiet offseason so far – continue to have the makings of an elite team, so there’s no pressure on their part to give up Seager. That said, dealing Seager would bring back a valuable return that could help LA in another area, and it would free up short for super-prospect Gavin Lux or, in a less probable scenario, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. The Dodgers have shown interest in Lindor, but if we’re to believe Indians brass, it’s unlikely he’ll change homes prior to the season.

Dodgers Sign Jimmy Nelson

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6:35pm: The Dodgers have announced the signing.

9:45am: The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earnings, including a vesting/mutual option for another season, according to Castillo, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).

Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.

As for the option, it will start out as a $2MM club option with a $500K buyout that makes up the remainder of the guaranteed cash. If Nelson throws sixty innings and/or makes forty appearances, it’ll convert to a $5MM mutual option. That price can reach as much as $9MM if Nelson throws 170 frames for Los Angeles in the coming season.

Once a foundational player in Milwaukee, Nelson was non-tendered by the Brewers in December when the club deemed his projected $3.7MM salary too steep. That decision came on the heels of two injury-ruined campaigns.

Nelson did get back on the hill in 2019 after missing the entirety of the prior season, but allowed 17 runs over 22 frames. While he racked up 26 strikeouts in that span but also coughed up 17 walks and four long balls.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of Nelson, who’s now thirty years of age. He exhibited a fairly significant velocity loss but still sat at around 93 mph in 2019. He dove in both first-strike rate (50.5%) and chase rate (23.6%), suggesting some reduction of command, pitch quality, and/or confidence. But Statcast still identified well-above-average spin on Nelson’s pitches.

It will be interesting to watch whether Nelson can return from the shoulder and elbow woes that derailed his career. It’s equally fascinating to see another upside pitching play from a Dodgers organization that has otherwise remained quiet this winter. While the club continues to explore major additions, it has yet to pull off a big strike this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers To Sign Edubray Ramos

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The Dodgers have a minors deal with righty Edubray Ramos, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It includes an invitation to MLB camp.

Ramos, 27, is a nice buy-low candidate to roll the dice on. He had been an effective hurler for the Phillies but was non-tendered after an injury-riddled 2019 season in which he was ineffective and showed reduced velocity when he was available to pitch.

If all works out, the Dodgers can retain Ramos for years into the future via arbitration. He threw 42 2/3 innings of 2.32 ERA ball with 8.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 for the Phils in 2018.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cody Bellinger

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Cody Bellinger seeks to break the record for first-time eligible players in 2020, after putting up an MVP campaign in his platform season to tack onto a resume that already has a Rookie of the Year award. Bellinger hit 47 home runs and knocked in 115, while batting .305 and stealing 15 bases through 661 plate appearances. For his career, that gives Bellinger 111 HR, 288 RBI, a .278 average, and 39 steals in 1841 plate appearances. That immediately puts him in rarified air.

In recent memory, only three players have entered arbitration for the first-time with both an ROY and an MVP award. Ryan Howard smashed the first-time eligible arbitration record way back in 2008 with these accomplishments. He had also hit 47 home runs in his platform season, but had batted only .268 (although he did knock in 136 runs). His 129 career home runs and 353 career RBI, plus his .291 career average, led to a $10MM salary after he beat the Phillies in arbitration (who had filed for only $7MM).

It took five more years for another player to reach arbitration with an ROY and MVP, and that was Buster Posey. Posey had only hit 24 HR in his platform year though, and 46 in his career, and ended up with a less remarkable $8MM.

It was not until Kris Bryant again accomplished that combination in 2018 that we saw Ryan Howard’s decade-old record fall as Bryant earned $10.85MM. Bryant is the most obvious comparable for Bellinger here. Bryant had a .295/29/73 platform in 665 PA, which is definitely weaker than Bellinger’s .305/47/115 in 661 PA—especially because Bellinger stole 15 bases to Bryant’s seven. For career numbers, Bryant also fell short in HR (94 versus 111), RBI (274 versus 288), and SB (28 versus 39), but he did have a .288 average to Bellinger’s .278. Of course, batting average has historically been far less important than power numbers for arbitration cases, so it stands to reason Bellinger should top Bryant’s $10.85MM. My model estimates $11.6MM, which may be on the low side.

Finding other comparable players is quite challenging. Two other players have received eight figure salaries in their first year of eligibility. Mookie Betts in 2018 had a .264/24/102 platform year, but had 26 stolen bases that season as well as a career .292/78/310 line and 80 total stolen bases. He got $10.55MM, and Bellinger’s case also looks favorable to his. Last year, Francisco Lindor had a platform .277/38/92 campaign with 25 SB, along with .288/98/310 career along with 71 SB. Lindor received $10.55MM. Again, Bellinger’s case compares favorably.

Overall, this seems likely to just be a matter of how much Bellinger will break Bryant’s record by. I think the floor is probably the $850K difference that the model projects (at $11.6MM), and I could easily see Bellinger landing north of $12MM or perhaps even $13MM.

Stan Kasten Discusses Dodgers’ Offseason, Cole, Spending

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Though the Dodgers have been linked to several big names in both trade rumors and free agency, it’s been a pretty quiet offseason at Chavez Ravine, with the club’s one-year, $10MM deal with Blake Treinen standing out as the biggest move of note.  The lack of action to date hasn’t sat well with many fans and pundits, including Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times, though Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten strongly defended his club’s strategies in a recent phone conversation with Plaschke.

As one might expect, Kasten took issue with what he described as “the L.A. Times’ characterization that everyone hates us,” which he felt was incorrect given strong attendance numbers.  While “for sure there are some fans…and a lot of people in the Twitterverse” who are critical of the Dodgers’ decisions, “based on the fans that support us…including this coming year…incredibly strong support and ticket sales…you keep trying to convince yourself that everyone hates us.  I just think you’re wrong.”

Kasten denied that the Dodgers were in any way limited by payroll considerations, or lacked full commitment to winning their first World Series since 1988, saying “we really need” to capture that elusive title.

“There are metrics in business that are mostly private that we look at, and I’d say we feel successful there,” Kasten said.  “But there’s no question that all of us who are competitive, from every owner that has a piece of the team to the junior people in the front office, we’re laser-focused on winning the World Series….It’s obviously not about what you spend, it is about the moves you make, the decisions you make.  I think questioning those things, criticizing those things, that’s absolutely fair.  But just to say there’s a [payroll] number you need to hit and if you don’t hit it you’re not trying, that’s just silly.”

To that end, Kasten noted that the Dodgers were fourth in spending last season, and are likely to be beyond the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold by season’s end.  Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates that L.A. has a current luxury tax number of just under $189MM, though “the team we have now is not going to be the team we have to start the postseason,” Kasten said.  “I expect that team, this year, it looks like it’s going to be well over the CBT, or somewhat over.”

The types of larger-salaried players who would boost a CBT number could come sooner rather than later, as Kasten said “there are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it.”  One of the players who was on the Dodgers’ radar earlier this winter was Gerrit Cole, though Kasten doesn’t believe Cole shared that interest in coming to L.A., no matter the dollars involved.  Cole joined the Yankees on the largest contract ever given to a pitcher — a nine-year, $324MM deal.

“It is clear now, I think it was clear to us in the middle of the process, he wanted to be a Yankee, he just did,” Kasten said.  “In retrospect, I think we were just the stalking horse to get a number he finally could get from a team he wanted to go to.  I don’t have any quibble with his approach…it was all very fair, but he wants to be somewhere, he got a lot of money to be where he wanted to be.”

Whether adding a particular star player is necessarily the right move to finally put Los Angeles over the top in a World Series, however, is far from a certainty.  Kasten points out that recent postseason heroes Daniel Hudson (with the Nationals in 2019) and Steve Pearce (with the Red Sox in 2019) were unheralded additions to their respective teams.

This strikes to the heart of the debate between Kasten and Plaschke, as the latter is concerned that the Dodgers’ focus on sustained success will keep the team from making a direct and concentrated push to end the championship drought in any one given year.  Kasten, by contrast, feels that the team’s approach allows it to be in the hunt every season.

“We won 106 games and came a couple of outs away from beating the team that won the World Series, that doesn’t suggest to me a system that needs to be completely torn apart,” Kasten said.  “What about the renewed pipeline, the old Dodger value of a player pipeline that I think we’ve had a reasonable amount of success at rebuilding?  How about the kids that are homegrown Dodgers?  We have a payroll of $200 million.  How can you call us cheap?  It blows my mind.“

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/4/20

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Baseball America has posted its traditional roundup of minor moves dating to the start of the offseason. We’ve already covered quite a few of the transactions over the past several weeks, but there are several additions on minor-league pacts that have to this point eluded detection …

  • The Braves have signed left-handed pitcher Chris Nunn to a minor-league deal that includes an invite to spring training, according to Robert Murray. Nunn, originally a 2012 draftee of the Padres, has yet to see Major League action since his professional debut, making stops in Independent leagues along the way. Now 28 years old, he’s played in the upper minors with the Astros and Dodgers organizations in the last two years. Last year, in 50 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, Nunn struck out 66 batters while walking 24. After posting a 1.33 ERA in Double-A, his numbers ballooned at the next level, though he largely maintained his bat-missing prowess.
  • The Padres signed outfielder Abraham Almonte. The 30-year-old switch-hitter saw action in 17 MLB games for the division-rival Diamonbacks in 2019. He was quite productive with the Snakes’ Triple-A affiliate in Reno last season, slashing .270/.382/.558. That dwarfs his prior MLB performance, though. In 1,138 plate appearances over the past six seasons, the center field-capable Almonte has compiled a .239/.298/.373 line (81 wRC+).
  • The Reds re-signed infielder Christian Colón and added catcher Francisco Peña to the organization. Colón, most known for his top five draft status and World Series heroics with the Royals, logged eight MLB plate appearances in Cincinnati last season. That rewarded a solid .300/.372/.443 line in extended action with Triple-A Louisville, although Colón was unsurprisingly bumped from the 40-man roster at season’s end. Peña tallied 202 uninspiring MLB plate appearances with the Royals, Orioles and Cardinals from 2014-18. He’s shown decent pop for a catcher at Triple-A, though; in parts of six seasons at the minors’ highest level, he has compiled a .259/.301/.469 line.
  • The Dodgers re-signed right-hander Justin De Fratus. The former Phillie has spent the last two seasons in the L.A. organization, but he hasn’t seen the majors since 2015. While all 191 of De Fratus’ MLB appearances have come out of the bullpen, he’s primarily been a starting pitcher in the minors in recent years, albeit with uninspiring results. The Dodgers also added hard-throwing lefty reliever Reymin Guduan. Guduan is still just 27 and had little trouble racking up strikeouts in the Astros’ organization, both in the high minors and at the MLB level. He’s always issued a few too many walks, though. Perhaps more concerning, Houston released Guduan in September after a team-imposed suspension for an undisclosed disciplinary issue.
  • The Rockies re-signed righty reliever Wes Parsons. The 27-year-old was claimed off waivers midseason from the Braves, but a dreadful MLB showing cost him his 40-man roster spot. Parsons logged a cumulative 5.45 ERA with more walks (29) than strikeouts (26) in 34.2 innings. Colorado also signed outfielder Michael Choice. The former top prospect, now 30, hasn’t logged significant MLB action since 2014. He’s spent the past two seasons in the Mexican League, but a strong 2019 effort there earned him another look in affiliated ball.
  • The Braves signed veteran infielder Pete Kozma. The longtime Cardinal has just a .215/.278/.291 career line (54 wRC+) in parts of seven MLB seasons. He hasn’t done much at the dish in the minors, either, but he’s a well-regarded defender around the infield.
  • The Angels signed former Cubs’ prospect Arismendy Alcántara. Alcántara hasn’t played at the highest level since 2017, and his career .189/.235/.315 line (49 wRC+) reflects the plate discipline woes that have done him in. He’s still just 28 years old, though, and his 2019 return to affiliated ball following a year in the Mexican League went well. The utilityman was productive across two minor-league levels in the Mets’ organization last season and showed better discipline than he has in his MLB career.
  • The Mets added former White Sox outfielder Ryan Cordell. Twice traded as a prospect, the 27-year-old fell flat in his first extended MLB look in 2019, with just a .221/.290/.355 line (73 wRC+). He’s capable of logging some time in center field, though, and he put together a decent minor-league resume between myriad injuries.
  • Finally, the Yankees brought aboard utilityman Rosell Herrera. Herrera logged fair MLB time with the Reds, Royals and Marlins the past two seasons. His resultant .225/.286/.316 slash (63 wRC+) won’t turn any heads, but Herrera has an 82nd percentile sprint speed, per Statcast, and has logged time at six different positions (short, second, third, and all three outfield spots) as a big leaguer.

Josh Donaldson Reportedly Sets Asking Price

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Weeks of bidding has reportedly driven the price tag for Josh Donaldson into the nine-figure range over a four-year term, with at least three clubs said to be sitting at that lofty price point. The end game may now be upon us.

The star third baseman has given teams what amounts to a firm and final asking price, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Donaldson is “simply waiting for one of the clubs to hit his number” — around $110MM — per the report.

It seems, then, that the Braves, Nationals, Twins, Rangers, Dodgers, and any other lurkers need only place a single phone call to Donaldson’s reps to get the paperwork started. With the first three of those clubs reportedly already close to Donaldson’s asking price, it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch to bridge the gap. On the other hand, it may be that these teams feel they’ve already moved well out of their comfort zone for a 34-year-old player with a not-so-distant injury history, however talented he may be.

We have seen this sort of bidding situation emerge before. Sometimes, the player ends up picking from among multiple, roughly equivalent offers, as reportedly occurred a few years back with Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. In other cases, a team leaps up to meet the asking price, as then-Blue Jays and now-Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos did to land Russell Martin — a situation he discussed last year.

It’s interesting now to see Anthopoulos weighing another tough call on an older free agent. He has twice acquired Donaldson, first via trade in Toronto and then through free agency in Atlanta, and has twice been rewarded for doing so. But while Anthopoulos made no shortage of big-money strikes during his time with the Jays, he has run quite a tight ship with the Braves. Most teams pressing to win end up going out on a limb at some point or another. No doubt Anthopoulos is presently weighing whether to do so with Donaldson or take on somewhat different risks by seeking an alternative path to the quality bat he wishes to acquire.

The calculus is much the same for the other teams involved. For the Nationals, the luxury tax line is fast approaching after a series of other moves. Adding Donaldson would probably mean going past it, though that seems to be a palatable outcome after dipping under the bar last year and going on to snag a World Series win. The Twins have ample flexibility after piecing together a cost-conscious series of rotation moves. It’s arguable that the Minnesota organization is most in need of a boost and best positioned to take on the long-term financial risks. But there are probably other ways the team could go to improve as well.

It could be that we’re seeing a bit of a staring contest here. Even if every organization knows that it controls its own destiny with regard to Donaldson — meet his ask and he’s yours — they’d each rather get him for less. There are some exceptionally talented alternatives in Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado, but they’ll each require a sacrifice of talent and it’s far from clear how appealing the trade terms will be in both cases. Other possibilities, such as trading for Kyle Seager or signing Todd Frazier, rate as backup plans in comparison to the addition of Donaldson or one of his talent-level peers.

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