- Janes quotes Rizzo in suggesting that the Nationals are looking to add a “frontline catcher” to the roster for the 2019 campaign — that is, one who can catch 120-plus games (Twitter link). It’s only natural that J.T. Realmuto’s name will continue to be tied to the Nationals, given the extensive interest they’ve reportedly shown in him over the past 12 months. They’ll presumably have to explore alternatives, though, as Rizzo himself noted that they’ve been talking about Realmuto for a year without a trade to show for it. (Past reports have indicated that the Marlins asked for Juan Soto and/or Victor Robles in negotiations.)
Marlins Rumors
Brodie Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason Roster Plans
New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has given every indication that the organization will push to contend right away. He also rather notably suggested that the Mets would not shy away from adding through the free agent market. What remains unclear, however, is the club’s plan to pay for new additions. The New York org has opened each of the past two campaigns with $150MM or so in payroll. With arb money factored in for 2019, there isn’t much of a gap between the team’s existing commitments and its recent levels of spending. Addressing the media again yesterday, Van Wagenen was non-committal about the financial expectations, as Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. While he reiterated that the Mets don’t see any free agents as being off limits, he also stated that the subject of payroll has not even been broached in detail with ownership.
Needless to say, that’s a bit of a curious statement given that the offseason is at hand. Here’s more from Van Wagenen’s chat:
- Catching is one area of some focus for the Mets, and it seems that Van Wagenen is contemplating some maneuvering with his options behind the dish. As Mike Puma of the New York Post covers on Twitter, Van Wagenen indicated that the club is drawing interest in its existing fleet of backstops — including, it seems, the Tommy John rehabbing Travis d’Arnaud. Despite his evident talent, the 29-year-old backstop has rarely stayed healthy or produced consistently. He projects to earn $3.7MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. That seems like a fairly hefty rate of pay, but Van Wagenen indicated the Mets could tender d’Arnaud and then deal him. While Van Wagenen says d’Arnaud will “hopefully” be ready to play, as DiComo adds on Twitter, there are still no assurances that he’ll be tendered.
- In terms of catching targets, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that Van Wagenen spoke well of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though he hardly gave any clear indication that there’ll be a pursuit. Realmuto figures to draw strong interest from a variety of contenders, and it’s frankly somewhat difficult to see the Mets coming away with him. There are certainly plenty of other possibilities, of course. We broke down the broader market situation about a month ago in our Market Snapshot series.
- As for infielder Wilmer Flores, another player with a questionable arbitration situation, Van Wagenen also walked a fine line. As DiComo tweets, the new GM did not say definitively that Flores will be tendered — which would cost a projected $4.7MM. But Van Wagenen seemingly spoke in terms that suggest Flores is in the organization’s plans. “I think he should be healthy and ready to go,” Van Wagenen said of the 27-year-old Flores, “and we will be counting on him. … He’s had a long track record of performing against left-handed pitching.”
- The win-now mantra in Queens will also extend to prospect promotions, it seems. As DiComo covers, Van Wagenen made clear he won’t keep down Mets first base prospect Peter Alonso to open the year if he shows he deserves a roster spot. While no executive would admit to playing with service time with a top prospect, Van Wagenen went further in discussing one of the club’s best-regarded youngsters, who he labeled a potential “impact player.” Van Wagenen says that the Mets want “to put the best 25 guys on the field” and notes that “the wins in April are just as important as the wins in September.”
- Meanwhile, Van Wagenen also gave a recent update on QB-turned-TV analyst-turned minor-leaguer Tim Tebow. As DiComo writes, the new Mets exec — who was most recently an agent who repped Tebow and quite a few other Mets players — gave rather an optimistic take on the former Heisman winner’s chances. Tebow, he says, will likely open the 2018 season at Triple-A but could even be considered for the MLB roster “if he wows us.”
Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock Hire Excel Sports Management
TODAY: Also heading to Excel is outfielder A.J. Pollock, another key piece of the free agency puzzle this winter. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), Pollock is staying with his own agent, Brian Peters, who’s also moving to Excel.
YESTERDAY: Outfielder Michael Brantley has hired Excel Sports Management to represent him in free agency, SB Nation’s Devan Fink recently reported on Twitter. He is moving to Excel from The Legacy Agency along with agent Kenny Felder and some of Felder’s other clients, including George Springer of the Astros and Lewis Brinson of the Marlins.
Of this trio, Brantley’s case is of particular note since he’s now a free agent. He recently reached the open market without having received a qualifying offer, meaning any team can sign him without surrendering draft compensation.
Brantley, 31, spent ten seasons with the Indians. The latter half of his time in Cleveland was played under an extension that included an option for the 2018 season, which the club picked up at $11MM. However, the $17.9MM QO proved too rich for the Indians, even after watching Brantley turn in a nice effort in 2018.
While he’s hardly an eye-popping power threat for a corner outfielder, Brantley is an exceptional contact hitter who is plenty valuable on offense. He finished the 2018 campaign with a .309/.364/.468 slash along with 17 home runs and a dozen steals. Brantley was a tough out, with a 9.5% strikeout rate that only just exceeded his 7.6% walk rate.
Brantley’s new reps will no doubt pitch their client as a high-quality performer with the bat who showed recently that his particular skills haven’t waned. He can also provide some value on the bases, though Brantley isn’t particularly well-regarded defensively and is also somewhat vulnerable to left-handed pitching.
The biggest questions surrounding Brantley, though, don’t involve his quality of play. Rather, they concern his ability to stay on the field. Brantley has endured a series of travails that cast some doubt on his durability, particularly given the cumulative effects. At the same time, he was healthy in 2018 and offers a hitting skillset that isn’t easy to come by. MLBTR recently named him the tenth-best free agent on the market, predicting a three-year, $45MM contract.
Find up-to-date information on player representation in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Marlins Looking To Upgrade Offense
- Having finished last in the league in runs scored in 2018, the Marlins are focused on upgrading their offense, according to president of baseball operations Michael Hill (via Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). “We like the young starting pitching that we have, and have coming,” he said. “We like where we’re at from a pitching-depth standpoint. But we know we need to score more runs and improve our offense. I think that will be a big part of the conversations we have.” Specifically, Miami’s seeking players who can man the middle of the field, and the club’s also interested in first base help, per Frisaro.
Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto
Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.
We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:
- While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
- The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
- As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
- While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.
Agent: Realmuto “Is Not Going To Sign An Extension In Miami”
While the Marlins have previously made it clear that they hoped to discuss a long-term contract with star catcher J.T. Realmuto this offseason, it sounds like Realmuto’s camp has other ideas. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today (Twitter link, with audio), agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball told host Scott Braun that Realmuto “has informed the Marlins’ ownership, he’s informed their front office he’s not going to sign an extension in Miami.” Berry also indicated that he thinks Realmuto “will definitely be wearing a different uniform” by Spring Training 2019.
That, it should be stressed, still doesn’t mean Realmuto will be traded this offseason. He was among the most coveted trade assets in baseball last winter and remained with the Marlins, even after Berry publicly requested that the Miami front office trade his client. Fresh off a terrific season in which he batted .277/.340/.484 with 21 homers and 30 doubles, Realmuto will once again be in high demand. He’s projected to earn $6.1MM via arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and he’s controlled through the 2020 season.
Adding Realmuto would be a transformative move for a number of hopeful contenders. The Dodgers and Phillies are set to lose Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos to free agency, while the Nationals have a clear vacancy behind the dish after a disappointing two-year deal with Matt Wieters has now reached its conclusion. The Astros, meanwhile, will bid adieu to Brian McCann, and the Rockies have had issues behind the plate for the past several seasons. Atlanta recently extended Tyler Flowers through 2019 but will see Kurt Suzuki reach free agency this weekend. The World Series champion Red Sox, meanwhile, received underwhelming production from the trio of Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and seldom-used Blake Swihart. Milwaukee could surely look to upgrade over Manny Pina and already pulled off one blockbuster with the Marlins (Christian Yelich). The Angels and Athletics have little in the way of immediately ready catching options in the organizations, and the Twins could use an upgrade behind the dish as well.
Frankly, even hopeful contenders with established options behind the dish are likely to inquire on Realmuto, as he’d be an upgrade over the vast majority of backstops in the league. Only Grandal and Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Realmuto, while only Ramos turned in a wRC+ mark greater than Realmuto’s 127 (that is to say, Realmuto produced at a rate roughly 27 percent better than a league-average hitter after adjusting for his league and home ballpark). The average MLB catcher’s offense, conversely, was 16 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter by that same measure.
The Marlins could opt to hang onto Realmuto and enjoy another season of excellent production from one of the game’s best young backstops. But the concrete affirmation from his agent that there will be no extension talks does figure to once again stoke the flames, so to speak, when it comes to trade interest in Realmuto. Given the sheer volume of contending clubs who could use help behind the plate, it stands to reason that the Marlins could extract a significant haul of prospects and young, MLB-ready talent in return for their 27-year-old All-Star. And, with the clock ticking and just two years of club control remaining, odds are that his trade value will never be higher than it is this winter.
Marlins Better Positioned To Spend In Free Agency
- The Marlins are open to being active in free agency this offseason, albeit for moderately-priced, low-risk veterans, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. With six arbitration cases and only three hefty contracts on the books, the Marlins are better positioned than in recent seasons to bring in some reinforcements from the outside to help build culture and mentor their younger players. One of those arbitration cases, last year’s Opening Day starter Jose Urena, has been rumored to be available via trade, but according to Frisaro he is much more likely to be the Opening Day starter in Miami for the second consecutive season.
Marlins Outright Bryan Holaday, Drew Rucinski, Miguel Del Pozo
Marlins’ backup catcher Bryan Holaday and reliever Drew Rucinski have been outrighted to Triple-A New Orleans, per the Sun Sentinel’s Wells Dusenbury. Rucinski has elected free agency.
The 30-year-old Holaday has appeared in the big leagues with the Tigers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Marlins since 2012. The veteran backstop has mostly been an emergency catching option, highlighted by an ALDS appearance for the 2014 Tigers, catching four innings to close out a Game 3 loss to Baltimore. That season was also his most prolific in the majors, appearing in 62 games for Detroit. This season, however, was a close second: 166 PA across 61 games, slashing .205/.261/.258 for the fish.
The 29-year-old Rucinski was serviceable in 32 appearances out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018 (0.1 fWAR, -0.6 rWAR), but there’s little to indicate he’ll be much more than an extra arm moving forward. Relying on a 6-pitch mix, Rucinski leans heavily on his cutter, which averaged 90.1 mph, per statcast. The right-hander finished 4-2 in 35.1 innings with a 4.33 ERA (4.76 xFIP).
Left-handed pitcher Miguel Del Pozo was also outrighted today, the team announced (via Twitter). Del Pozo spent 2018 in Double-A, but the Marlins have given themselves some extra breathing room, creating nine open spots on their 40-man roster with the removal of Holaday, Rucinski, and Del Pozo.
Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Marlins will enter the offseason focused on trading some veterans and gathering up as much young talent as possible.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $42MM through 2020 (plus vesting/player option)
- Martin Prado, 3B: $15MM through 2019
- Starlin Castro, 2B: $12MM through 2019 (plus club option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- J.T. Realmuto – $6.1MM
- Derek Dietrich – $4.8MM
- Dan Straily – $4.8MM
- Jose Urena – $3.6MM
- Miguel Rojas – $2.6MM
- Adam Conley – $1.3MM
- Bryan Holaday – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Rojas, Holaday
Free Agents
[Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Miami Marlins Payroll Information]
The Marlins have already knocked out a key piece of offseason business, landing Cuba’s Mesa brothers off of the international market. Elder brother Victor Victor Mesa may not be too far from the majors, though surely the Miami organization will take care not to rush him.
After all, there are no expectations that the team will be competitive at the MLB level in the near future. The Marlins won 63 games in 2018 after an offseason chock full of change. Most of the veteran players that weren’t dealt over the winter, but could be moved over the summer, ended up heading out the door.
That’s not to say, of course, that there weren’t some exceptions. First and foremost is catcher J.T. Realmuto. While the organization insists it intends to pursue an extension with the 27-year-old, who emerged in 2018 as arguably the game’s best overall backstop, it’ll be hard pressed to convince him to sign on (at least, at a palatable rate of pay).
It seems quite likely, then, that the Marlins will at least entertain trade offers. Perhaps it’s likelier still that the club will once again act as auctioneer, asking rivals with interest in Realmuto to come forward with offers. With two more years of affordable control remaining, Realmuto has a rather appealing contractual situation to go along with his on-field excellence and a significant amount of demand at the position.
The Marlins will need to choose wisely from the offers they receive on Realmuto, assuming that’s the route they take, because he’s the last top shelf label behind the bar. That said, the club does have some other candidates to move.
Starter Dan Straily is arguably the next-most valuable veteran asset, though rough peripherals lurked behind his 4.12 ERA from the 2018 campaign. Left-handed-hitting utilityman Derek Dietrich has produced above the league average with the bat in each of the past four seasons, though his glovework isn’t much-loved by metrics. And though he hasn’t drawn much interest over the past year, second baseman Starlin Castro has turned in consecutive solid campaigns and would seemingly represent a useful piece for the right organization. Finally, it’s not too hard to imagine southpaw Adam Conley being moved; interest may not be all that great, but he has had his moments and is still affordable and controllable.
Other potential trade assets seem less likely. The Marlins would dearly love to free their payroll of some of what’s owed to Wei-Yin Chen and Martin Prado, but it’s hard to imagine either will be candidates to move unless and until they show some life in the first half of the 2019 campaign. Dealing more youthful players likely won’t make a ton of sense, though perhaps it’s not possible to rule that out. Drew Steckenrider has loads of cheap control remaining, but he’s a reliever and therefore arguably ought to be cashed in if the price is right. Starter Jose Urena, who is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, probably shouldn’t be taken off the shelf entirely. It’s always possible another team will come calling with an offer that’s too good to pass up, as the Marlins themselves did to acquire Straily.
If it seems as if this post has dwelled quite a bit on what the Marlins might part with, well, that’s because the time still doesn’t seem ripe for this club to begin building up in earnest. What does the MLB roster need, in particular? Talent, anywhere and everywhere.
Indeed, third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson is arguably the only youthful position player who has fully locked up a roster spot before camp opens. Otherwise, beyond the short-term veterans mentioned above — any one of whom could be traded — there’s immense uncertainty. After a nice 22-game run at the plate, long-time minor-league slugger Peter O’Brien arguably has the inside track at first base, which he could share in part with a healthy Garrett Cooper (who’s also a possibility in the corner outfield). JT Riddle could handle a chunk of the time at short. In the outfield, Lewis Brinson might be allowed to sink or swim in the bigs but could also end up back at Triple-A. Monte Harrison isn’t far from getting his first shot and Magneuris Sierra is also among the other near-term possibilities.
Given that state of affairs, there’s opportunity aplenty in Miami, which should make it a popular destination for young-ish castaways looking for a shot at the big leagues. The Marlins front office will no doubt look for ways to take advantage of the situation, including waiver claims, the Rule 5 draft, minor-league signings, and trades for players that don’t quite fit on other 40-man rosters. At the end of the day, there isn’t a single position on the diamond where existing options will cause the club to shy away from taking a low-risk chance on a player they really like. (Even Anderson, after all, isn’t locked into a single position.)
The state of affairs is a bit different on the pitching side, though there are quite a few openings there as well. The Fish hooked some interesting arms last year, with Caleb Smith and Trevor Richards emerging as cost-efficient starters with some promise. Since the Marlins will want to see if Chen can pitch his way back into a tradeable asset, the starting five cold be set with Urena and Straily.
Of course, the Marlins could choose to be aggressive and find a way to put top prospect Sandy Alcantara back in the rotation despite his walk problems in a six-game stint in 2018. There are also quite a few other young starters on the 40-man — most notably, out-of-nowhere righty Pablo Lopez — which perhaps provides added impetus to the notion of dealing away one or more of the veterans.
There are pitching options, to be sure, but that doesn’t mean the Marlins will hesitate to pick up intriguing rotation pieces should they see a way to do so at a nice value. If that creates any 25-man and/or 40-man roster pressures, then the leftover arms can slide into a bullpen that is quite light on sure things. Having already traded away Kyle Barraclough, the Marlins’ most experienced relievers are now pitchers like Conley, Nick Wittgren, and Jarlin Garcia. While existing players can fill out the relief corps, it’s another area that’s fully susceptible of improvement.
In this situation, it’s hard to imagine the Marlins really even having much preference at all other than to get the most talented possible players into the organization. There’s little sense in resolving would-be logjams before they exist. While that makes for a rather boring offseason preview piece, it also leaves the door wide open for a creative and fruitful winter.
AL Notes: Eovaldi, Gaston, Castellanos, Astros
As he prepares for the World Series, Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi says he has yet to have any talks with the club regarding a deal that would keep him off of the open market, John Tomase of WEEI.com reports. The hurler says he’d “love to be back,” though unsurprisingly it looks as if he’ll test the open market first. It’s certainly possible to imagine a fit with Boston, though the same could be said of quite a few other organizations as well.
Here’s more from the American League:
- There’s some belief that the Rays will land Cuban righty Sandy Gaston, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (Twitter links). Two other top players, the Mesa brothers, landed with the Marlins today. The Orioles had been seen as a chief competitor for these and other top young players who are eligible to sign rather than entering the draft. To date, though, the club has largely kept its war chest intact. Frisaro says it’s believed that it would cost Tampa Bay around $2MM to secure the amateur.
- The lack of a suitable defensive position has long been the primary concern with Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes, GM Al Avila says the current plan remains to keep Castellanos in right field, where he has “made some strides.” As Fenech writes, though, there are some good practical reasons to consider utilizing Castellanos at first base, where he’d be less of a concern defensively and wouldn’t clog up a spot in the outfield for other other players the club would like to get a look at. Of course, the first base position is spoken for, at least for part of the time, by Miguel Cabrera.
- Despite a disappointing end to the 2018 season, the Astros enter the winter with a great deal of confidence in their existing roster, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. Unsurprisingly, though, GM Jeff Luhnow identified starting pitching and catching as two areas that will need to be addressed. In other Astros news, the organization is expected to retain all of skipper A.J. Hinch’s coaches, Luhnow tells Rome (via Twitter). All are already under contract, per the GM. Of course, bench coach Joe Espada has received strong interest from other organizations as a managerial candidate, so it’s still possible the club will need to make a new hire.
