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MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Michael Wacha Opts Out; Padres Give Qualifying Offers to Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres have extended qualifying offers to free agent lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader, reports AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The club also announced a batch of transactions, which includes each of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez electing free agency. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter exercised his player option to stick with the club. Additionally, the club outrighted right-hander Nick Hernandez and claimed right-hander Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from the Cubs.

The decisions of Lugo and Martinez were previously reported, as was the news on Carpenter. As for Wacha, it was reported on the weekend that the club was declining a two-year option to retain him for 2024-25. Wacha then had the opportunity to trigger a $6.5MM player option for 2024 but has now turned that down.

Wacha signed a four-year deal with the Padres, though one with a convoluted structure. The club would first have to decide on a two-year, $32MM option for the 2024-25 seasons, which they declined. Wacha then had three straight player options which could have paid him $6.5MM in 2024 and then $6MM in the following two seasons. But he has now turned that down, leaving three years and $18.5MM on the table in search of a new deal.

Although he was largely injured and/or ineffective for much of the 2018 to 2021 period, Wacha has now had two straight solid seasons. He posted a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox in 2022 and a 3.22 mark in his first season in San Diego. Injuries still limited his total volume of work, as he logged 127 1/3 innings for the Sox and 134 1/3 for the Friars, but the combination of workload and effectiveness was nonetheless the best form he’s showed in years.

He’ll now head back to free agency in search of his next deal. The starting pitching market is headlined by guys like Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but Wacha will be somewhere in the tie of solid mid-rotation or back-end guys, alongside Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger.

The fact that Snell and Hader received $20.325MM qualifying offers is no surprise. The two of them are going to be some of the top available free agents this winter, making them a lock to reject them, something recently highlighted by MLBTR. Snell posted a 2.25 earned run average in 2023 and could receive the second Cy Young Award of his career in the coming days. Hader has long been one of the most dominant relievers in the league and had a 1.28 ERA in the season that just ended. Both should be able to receive nine-figure contracts even with a QO attached.

Any impending free agent can receive a qualifying offer as long as they spent the entire season with just one club and haven’t received a QO before. If Hader and/or Snell sign with other clubs after rejecting the QO, the Padres will receive draft pick compensation.

The departures of Wacha, Snell, Lugo and Martinez will leave the Padres fairly short-handed in their rotation. They still have Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove but they are followed on the depth chart by unproven options like Matt Waldron, Jay Groome, Adrián Morejón and Pedro Avila. They will presumably be looking to add to that group but will have to do so while juggling significant financial concerns.

Hernandez, 29 next month, was just added to the roster in September. He made two appearances, allowing four earned runs in three innings, giving him a career ERA of 12.00 in that tiny sample. He threw 61 innings in the minors in 2023, split between Double-A and Triple-A, with a 3.84 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Any of the 29 other clubs could have added him to their roster today but decided to pass.

Estrada, 25, made 17 appearances for the Cubs over the past two seasons with a 5.51 ERA in that time. His 25.9% strikeout rate is a bit above average but his 18.5% walk rate is concerning. That’s generally been a pattern in the minor leagues as well, with Estrada striking out 31.2% of hitters at Triple-A in 2023 but walking 18.8%. He is still optionable next year, so the Padres will add some pitching depth that comes with roster flexibility, while they will presumably try to help Estrada improve his control going forward.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:

Check out our past episodes!

NL West Notes: Kim, Padres, JDM, Smith, DeSclafani, Giants

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Ha-Seong Kim suffered what Padres manager Bob Melvin described as a “jammed shoulder” that led to an early exit from today’s game against the Rangers.  Kim suffered the injury while diving to score a run in the third inning, and partially colliding with Texas catcher Sam Huff while trying to reach and touch the plate.  The good news is that tests revealed no structural damage, and Kim expressed hope that he might be able to play as early as Monday when the Padres start the series in Denver with the Rockies.

Only nine players have a better fWAR than Kim’s 3.7 total, as his bat (.279/.374/.447 with 14 homers and 21 steals in 391 plate appearances, for a 130 wRC+) and excellent defense (primarily as a second baseman but also at third base and shortstop) have somewhat quietly made him one of the better overall performers in baseball this season.  Even if he misses a game or two, Kim’s presence is key to a team that might still be the biggest unknowns as the trade deadline approaches.  The Padres are 52-54 and are five games out of a wild card spot, with three other non-playoff teams still ahead of San Diego in the standings.  The Padres are known to be at least listening to trade offers for some of their top names, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal write that their “asking prices for both [Blake] Snell and [Josh] Hader…have been exorbitant.”  It seems increasingly likely that San Diego might wait until almost the last minute before deciding whether to sell, buy, or (the most probable course) a combination of both tactics.

More from around the NL West…

  • J.D. Martinez will undergo an MRI to determine the nature of his nagging left hamstring problem, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio).  The veteran slugger has been bothered by the injury for almost a week, and tests should determine whether an IL stint might be necessary.  Martinez missed close to three weeks due to back problems earlier this season, but it has otherwise been a strong year for the 35-year-old, who reached the All-Star Game and is hitting .260/.310/.562 with 25 homers over 365 PA.
  • The Dodgers got another injury scare Sunday when Will Smith had to leave the game after being hit in the elbow by a Graham Ashcraft pitch.  Smith remained in the game for three more innings after being hit and x-rays were negative, so the catcher is considered day-to-day and might be able to return as early as the Dodgers’ next game on Tuesday.  Another Los Angeles All-Star, Smith has continued to be one of the game’s best catchers, entering today’s action with a 137 wRC+ (from 13 homers and a .279/.386/.474 slash line in 347 PA).
  • The Giants placed Anthony DeSclafani on the 15-day injured list earlier today due to a right elbow flexor strain, with Tristan Beck recalled from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) that DeSclafani will miss “several weeks” with the injury, which at least creates some question as to whether or not DeSclafani might have thrown his last pitch of the 2023 season.  An MRI revealed a grade 1 strain after DeSclafani reported some forearm discomfort during a bullpen session.  DeSclafani’s injury might end whatever chance there was that the Giants might deal from their starting pitching depth, and it’s even possible San Francisco might look to add an arm before the deadline.  Beck, Sean Manaea, or Jakob Junis could all be candidates to replace DeSclafani in the rotation or as bulk pitchers (behind an opener).
  • Sticking with the Giants, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that San Francisco had interest in both Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez before the Dodgers landed both players in respective trades with the Guardians and Red Sox.  With Brandon Crawford back from the injured list and Thairo Estrada also back soon, the Giants may no longer have quite as pressing a need for infield help, though Rosenthal feels the Giants could still trade from their pitching depth to address another need.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you see the Marlins being sellers or buyers? (23:25)
  • Who are the Phillies targeting and who would they give up prior to the deadline? (26:35)
  • Who do the Tigers end up trading? And what can we expect in return? (28:50)

Check out our past episodes!

Padres Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Juan Soto; Trade Seen As Unlikely

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The Padres have signaled a willingness to hear trade offers on Juan Soto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman writes that San Diego is also open to overtures on Blake Snell and Josh Hader, though he reiterates the Friars’ preference would be to add to the roster before next Tuesday’s deadline.

For myriad reasons, it seems very unlikely the Padres would move Soto in the coming days. They’re only a year removed from acquiring him and Josh Bell in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster ever, sending CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and top prospects James Wood and Robert Hassell III as part of the package to Washington. Pivoting to deal him away within a year would represent a major change in direction for a franchise that has rapidly escalated payroll and seemed hellbent on collecting as many stars as possible.

San Diego chairman Peter Seidler went on record at the start of July to say the organization wasn’t “going to reverse course” from that aggressiveness. Obviously, the Friars haven’t pulled out of their middling performance in the few weeks since then, but a Soto trade would run directly contrary to that message.

Indeed, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote just two days ago that the Padres had been rebuffing offers on Hader and Snell. Moving Soto — who is eligible for arbitration for a season beyond this one — would require a significant change of heart. There’s been a little more chatter of late about the possibility of Hader and Snell coming available (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also suggested as much this morning), but they’re more logical trade candidates than Soto since they’re both headed to free agency after this season.

San Diego, owner of a 49-54 record, faces a double-digit game deficit in the NL West. They’re 6.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to surpass. Their place in the standings makes a run at the postseason this year unlikely, though certainly not impossible. It’s hard to envision this club kicking off any kind of longer-term retool and a Soto trade would obviously deal a huge hit to their 2024 lineup.

While Soto got off to a slow start to the season by his own huge standards, he’s looked like himself over the past few months. He owns a .286/.434/.548 line since the start of May and carries a .262/.417/.501 slash overall. There’d clearly be enormous interest if the Friars were to genuinely market the three-time All-Star. It seems they’re currently open to offers more so as a matter of due diligence than any kind of eagerness to deal him.

Whether to move the impending free agents or push in more chips in hopes of an excellent second half could be determined in large part by their next few games. The Padres have four more outings before the deadline: a three-game set at home against the division-leading Rangers, then the first contest of a series in Colorado.

Latest On Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.

Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.

The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.

If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.

Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.

They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.

If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.

Padres Have Turned Away Interest In Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres’ season has been an abject disappointment, but despite a 10-game deficit in the NL West and a six-game gap in the NL Wild Card chase, they apparently remain intent on keeping the roster together. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the Friars have received and thus far rebuffed interest in lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Both southpaws are free agents at season’s end. Snell is wrapping up the final season of a five-year, $50MM contract extension originally signed with the Rays. He’s earning $16MM this season. Hader is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and being paid $14.1MM.

After a rocky start to the season, the 30-year-old Snell has rediscovered the form that helped him win the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. Dating back to mid-May, Snell has pitched to a preposterous 0.78 ERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 69 innings. He’s walked an ugly 13.4% of his opponents during that time, although that number is at least partially skewed by one anomalous start in which he issued seven free passes. Overall, Snell carries a 2.61 ERA. He’s running a strikeout rate north of 30% for the sixth consecutive season.

Hader, similarly, has rebounded this season. Much was made of the lefty’s struggles prior to last July’s trade to San Diego and subsequent rough patch early in his Padres tenure. However, he closed out the year with a dominant stretch and was excellent throughout the postseason as well. He’s backed that up with 38 innings of 0.95 ERA ball, 24 saves and a massive 38.4% strikeout rate in 2023. Like Snell, he’s too prone to free passes (13.2% walk rate), but Hader’s penchant for missing bats has helped to mitigate any potential damage.

Both pitchers would be clear candidates to receive qualifying offers at season’s end, and both would surely reject in search of a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency (barring a notable second-half injury or collapse). As such, the Padres can feel confident that they’ll at least come away with a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft. However, since they’re luxury-tax payors, those picks would land after the fourth round rather than the standard slotting between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft.

The luxury tax comes into play in another regard for the Padres, too. San Diego is currently about $4MM north of the third line of luxury penalization ($273MM), per Roster Resource. That’s the point at which a team’s top pick is pushed back by 10 selections in the following summer’s draft. Trading Snell and the remainder of his $10MM luxury hit ($3.655MM, as of this writing) wouldn’t drop the Padres under that threshold. Hader ($5.154MM still owed to him) would do so. To be clear, there’s no indication the Padres are endeavoring to drop below that line at this time.

For much of the offseason, the Padres appeared reluctant to cross that third luxury barrier. Many of the team’s late-offseason dealings were structured in convoluted ways designed to tamp down their luxury-tax implications, including their extension of Yu Darvish and signing of Michael Wacha. They’ve nevertheless wound up north of that line and are currently on pace to have next summer’s top pick dropped by 10 spots.

If owner Peter Seidler’s comments earlier this month are any indication, the loss of draft capital isn’t likely to be a deterrent. On July 2, when the Padres were eight games under .500, 11.5 games back in the division and 8.5 games out of the Wild Card chase, Seidler pledged that his team would not “reverse course.” San Diego has played better since that time, going 11-7 and trimming that Wild Card deficit by two and a half games.

There’s an argument to be made that the Padres could explore deals for Snell and/or Hader, prioritizing near-MLB help and simultaneously looking to back-fill the roster with lower-cost rentals. I explored as much in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat. That’d be a fine line to walk, however, and the Padres’ postseason chances are obviously greater if they simply hold onto Snell and Hader.

At least for now, that appears to be the front office’s plan. Passan suggests the Padres could look to add to their bullpen and perhaps turn to the farm system if those efforts come up empty.

The remaining handful of games between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline remain worth monitoring. The Friars have their series finale against a free-falling Pirates club right now and will play the last-place Rockies next Monday, the final day before the deadline. That pair of favorable matchups bookends a pivotal three-game set against the AL West-leading Rangers.

If the Padres can pull themselves up to .500 or at least pick up another game or two in the Wild Card hunt, it stands to reason they’ll continue their all-in approach to the current season. On the other hand, a series of losses could conceivably make the front office give more consideration to a soft sell of rental pieces. As with so many clubs around the league, the next few games will be critical in shaping the Padres’ approach to the deadline.

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