10 Bounceback Hitter Candidates Still Available In Free Agency
Recently, we took a look at 10 still-available pitchers who could offer bounceback opportunities at appealing price tags. Today, we’ll do the same from the position-player side. We’re looking for players who have been limited by injury or suffered dips in performance, but whose age and track record suggest that a turnaround could deliver plenty of value to their new organizations. Here are some of the interesting hitters who remain on the open market as 2017 beckons:
Chris Iannetta, C: Now 33 years of age, Iannetta has turned in two straight marginal campaigns with the bat. But he hit .238/.357/.386 in over 1,000 plate appearances from 2012 through 2014, with 151 walks to go with 251 strikeouts. Iannetta still draws free passes at a hefty clip, but suffered from low BABIPs in each of the last two seasons (.225, .266). Though he’s making more soft contact than he did at his best, Iannetta turned in a 34.9% hard-contact rate and 22.4% line-drive rate last year, both of which were near his career-best marks. Though he rated as one of the game’s worst framers in 2016, he was one of the best in the season prior.
Adam Lind, 1B/DH: From the same age bracket as Iannetta, Lind maintained his power (.192 ISO, 20 home runs in 430 plate appearances) last year with the Mariners, but posted an anemic .286 OBP. There were two main culprits: a .259 BABIP and 6.0% walk rate that represented nearly a 50% drop from his personal best (11.5% in 2015). While it’s unlikely that the left-handed slugger will again post such strong walk tallies, he ought to be able to rebound somewhat in that regard. And it’s reasonable, perhaps, to anticipate a bounceback in the BABIP department; Lind continued to make about as much hard contact as he did during his productive preceding seasons and maintained a fairly typical mix of grounders, liners, and flies.
Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: As with Lind, Morrison represents a particularly intriguing target since the market was so saturated with defensively limited slugger types. The 29-year-old has never been a consistent producer, and seemed headed for an early end to his time with the Rays after an abysmal start to the 2016 season. But he rebounded beyond any expectations over his final 303 plate appearances, slashing .275/.350/.498 and driving 14 home runs in that half-season of work. While hitting to the pull side more than ever before in 2016 (an even 50%), Morrison made hard contact at a personal best rate of 34.2% and left the yard on 15.2% of his flyballs, the second-best mark of his career. His final numbers could look even better had he not ended up requiring wrist surgery in September. The injury risk may harm Morrison’s stock further, but it also increases the potential payoff.
Billy Butler, DH: There isn’t much to love about Butler’s last three seasons, as he has been about a league-average overall hitter — well shy of what you’d hope for from a right-handed hitter who’s limited to DH duties. But he did show quite well in his brief stint at the end of 2016 with the Yankees and remains rather difficult to strike out (career 14.8% walk rate). Plus, Butler produced a strong 28.9% line-drive rate in 2016 while cutting back on an infield fly rate that had soared to 9.4% in 2015, perhaps suggesting he could turn back into a reasonably productive hitter — particularly given that he’s still just 30 years of age.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B: There’s no denying that Plouffe was banged up in 2016, as he was shelved at various times by intercostal and oblique strains as well as a broken rib. He finished strong, posting a .277/.345/.465 slash over his last 113 trips to the plate, and carried a slightly above-average .248/.312/.426 batting line while swatting 74 long balls over his prior four seasons. While there isn’t much reason to expect that Plouffe will be a top-quality regular, he has every chance of returning to being a useful player: he’s just thirty years old and rated as an average-or-better third baseman in 2014-15.
Luis Valbuena, 3B: The role of injuries is even more straightforward in Valbuena’s case, as he was humming along nicely (.260/.357/.459 with 13 home runs over 342 plate appearances) before he was cut down with a hamstring injury. Unlike Plouffe, he hits from the left side, enhancing his function. While the 31-year-old is not well-regarded with the glove, Valbuena can still play third base and has spent time in the middle infield as well (along with a brief foray into the corner outfield).
Chris Coghlan, INF/OF: A left-handed hitter with some defensive versatility, Coghlan has provided the Cubs with over 1,000 plate appearances of .264/.351/.441 hitting and 26 home runs over the last three seasons. Of course, that output came on both sides of his ill-fated stint with the A’s, where he slashed an anemic .146/.215/.272 to start the 2016 campaign. The 31-year-old Coghlan typically receives good marks in the corner outfield, saw spot duty in center earlier in his career, and is at least serviceable enough at second and third to have been utilized at both spots in recent years.
Desmond Jennings, OF: While things didn’t end well in Tampa Bay, Jennings is still just 30 years of age and isn’t far removed from being a solid, everyday player. He has plenty of experience in center field and has generally drawn strong reviews for his work in the corner outfield. Jennings has been beset by injuries over the last two years, and has been inconsistent at the plate even when healthy. But he managed a .150 ISO last year, even as his on-base numbers were doomed by a .243 BABIP, and could again be a solid asset if he can return to his career plate-discipline marks. Last year’s 9.3% walk rate matched his career numbers, though he jumped to a 25.8% strikeout rate in 2016 while posting a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that was about 50% higher than he had ever carried previously.
Austin Jackson, OF: 2016 was supposed to provide a bounceback opportunity for AJax, who’ll soon turn 30, but a knee injury ended his year after just 203 largely uninspiring plate appearances with the White Sox. Jackson’s power has fallen off a cliff, and he wasn’t running as much even before the injury, but perhaps a lengthy respite can get the still-youthful player back in physical form. He was nearly a league-average hitter with solid glovework in center as recently as 2015, so perhaps his forgettable stint in Chicago is more a blip than the start of a full-scale falloff.
Colby Rasmus, OF: Rasmus played well enough in 2015 to earn a qualifying offer after the season. His return to the Astros wasn’t nearly as productive, as he scuffled to a .206/.286/.355 batting line. But Rasmus was playing with a cyst in his ear, which was ultimately removed via surgery, and also underwent hip and core muscle procedures after the season, so perhaps injuries played a major role in his poor campaign. He also wasn’t helped by a .257 BABIP. Rasmus is still just 30 years of age and produced a strong .238/.314/.475 batting line with 25 dingers in 2015. There are other sources of potential value here, too: Rasmus has typically graded quite well on the bases, though he doesn’t attempt many steals, and metrics were quite pleased with his glovework in both the corner outfield and center in his most recent campaign.
Cubs Acquire Chris Coghlan
The Cubs have brought back veteran infielder/outfielder Chris Coghlan in a trade with the Athletics, per an announcement from Oakland. Young utilityman Arismendy Alcantara will go back in return.
Chicago had shipped Coghlan to the A’s over the winter in exchange for pitcher Aaron Brooks. That move proved to be a precursor to the Cubs’ signing of Dexter Fowler.
In the interim, though, the Cubs lost Kyle Schwarber for the season and recently saw Jorge Soler go down with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. Also hitting the DL with a hammy issue is infielder Tommy La Stella.
Those losses have reduced the club’s depth somewhat, though it still has a nice group of outfield talent in reserve (including just-promoted prospect Albert Almora) as well as a fully healthy infield that includes two outstanding players (Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist) who are also capable of playing in the outfield.
The 30-year-old Coghlan will likely see time at the corner outfield, but has also been an option at second base (where Zobrist is entrenched). He had two highly productive seasons with the Cubs over 2013-14, posting a combined .265/.346/.447 batting line with 25 home runs and 18 steals over 935 plate appearances. Coghlan has scuffled thus far in Oakland with an ugly .146/.215/.272 slash, but those results and eroding plate discipline — he owns an uncharacteristic 27.3% strikeout rate against a diminished 7.6% walk rate — didn’t deter his former club.
There was a time when it would have seemed that Alcantara was the perfect player to plug into just such an opening. A middle infielder by trade, he saw ample time on the outfield grass upon his promotion in 2014. But the 24-year-old has never quite blossomed at the big league level, and wasn’t showing any signs of resolving his strikeout issues at Triple-A.
Still, he’s an interesting wild card for the A’s. Though he’s yet to show consistent on-base skills, Alcantara is generally regarded as a quality fielder and has loud tools on offense, with a history of double-digit home runs and steals. Indeed, over 213 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors this year, he has already swiped twenty bags.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
A’s Notes: Coghlan, Crisp, Gray
With the current focus on teams “tanking” seasons, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) observes that the Athletics’ run over the last two decades is all the more remarkable since the team has never entirely torn things down to rebuild. Last season was the first time since 1997 that Oakland won fewer than 74 games, and even in the wake of 2015’s disappointment, the A’s still made offseason moves with an eye on returning to contention in 2016. Here’s some more from the Athletics’ camp…
- Chris Coghlan is looking forward to his new role as a super-utility man, the newly-acquired Athletic told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). “When I was younger, my ego, I was like, ‘I want to play one position,’ but as you grow, to be able to play different positions really helps the team, so I’ve learned to embrace it….Zo [Ben Zobrist] set the bar. There were people before, but Zo made it sexy and and cool to be the utility guy. Before, it meant you aren’t an everyday guy. Now it’s the cool thing. So mad props to him,” Coghlan said.
- Despite the numerous injuries that have set back his career, Coco Crisp tells CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich that he has no plans on retiring. “Really, who wants to stop playing? It’s been everybody’s dream for so long.” Crisp said. “I do enjoy my family, my kids, and I want to be there for them. And I also want them to be able to see their father, (when they’re) at an older age, play ball. And experience some of the joys of being a ballplayer’s kid.” Crisp said he would love to keep playing in Oakland past this season, the last guaranteed year on his contract. Crisp has a $13MM vesting option for 2017 based on amassing either 130 games played or 550 plate appearances this year, though either threshold will be hard to achieve given both his injury history and the Athletics’ logjam of outfield/DH options.
- In a piece about young pitchers who are good extension candidates, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards highlights Sonny Gray‘s case for a multi-year deal. Trade rumors have often swirled around Gray since it has been assumed that the A’s can’t afford him once he hits free agency after the 2019 season, and Edwards notes that an extension wouldn’t make sense if Oakland plans on dealing Gray within the next year (the star righty becomes arbitration-eligible next winter). In the short term, however, Edwards argues that a Gray extension helps the Athletics continue to stay competitive and also retains Gray’s trade value. In this case, both the A’s and potential trade suitors would be gaining cost certainty on Gray through his arb years.
AL Notes: Encarnacion, Coghlan, Trout
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion reiterates that remains open to an extension, but is setting an Opening Day deadline so that talks do not become a distraction, according to various reporters (including MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm). Via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (on Twitter), Encarnacion would like to finish his career in Toronto. “I love this team, I love this city,” he says. “But it (doesn’t) depend on me. It depends what they’re thinking.” It was reported earlier this month that the Blue Jays would explore extensions with Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, both of whom are eligible for free agency after the season. The 33-year-old Encarnacion has hit 34 or more homers in each of the last four years, and in response to a question about what figure he might have in mind for a new contract, he says (via Chisholm) the only number he’s thinking of right now is 40, for the number of dingers he’d like to hit this season. Here’s more from the American League.
- GM David Forst says the Athletics see new acquisition Chris Coghlan as a “[Ben] Zobrist-type guy,” via a video from the Bay Area News Group’s John Hickey (on Twitter). Forst mentions that Coghlan has played second and third base in the past, along with left field and center field. Of course, Coghlan has mostly been a left fielder in his career, but it sounds like the Athletics could be preparing for him to take on a slightly different role this season. He did appear in 15 games at second base with the Cubs in 2015.
- Angels star Mike Trout hopes to steal more bases in 2016, Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times writes. “I gotta get my confidence back,” says Trout, referring to his base-stealing. Trout led the AL with 49 steals in 2012, but that number dropped to 11 (against seven caught stealings) in 2015. Trout is, obviously, plenty valuable whether he steals bases or not, and Moura notes that much of the Angels’ brain trust isn’t concerned about whether Trout racks up big base-stealing totals.
Athletics Acquire Chris Coghlan From Cubs For Aaron Brooks
The Cubs have traded outfielder Chris Coghlan to the Athletics for pitcher Aaron Brooks, the Cubs announced via press release.
Coghlan, 30, won the Rookie of the Year award in 2009. Last season, he hit .250/.341/.443 in 503 plate appearances. The lefty hitter was mostly used against right-handed pitching. He has fairly substantial career platoon splits.
Owed $4.8MM in his final season of club control, Coghlan will add more depth to the A’s outfield. Khris Davis, Josh Reddick, and Billy Burns are penciled in as the starters with Coco Crisp, Mark Canha, and Sam Fuld in the mix too. Given his success against right-handed pitching, Coghlan could platoon with Canha as the team’s designated hitter. He also has experience at second and third base.
Brooks, 25, was acquired by the A’s late last season in the Ben Zobrist trade. He made nine starts for the A’s in 11 appearances with forgettable results. His 6.71 ERA was a sight worse than his 6.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. The righty will likely serve as bullpen and rotation depth for the Cubs.
Interestingly, Coghlan appeared to be the Cubs fourth outfielder. Now Arismendy Alcantara and Matt Szczur are the top backup outfielders on the depth chart. Of course, that also overlooks Javier Baez who is expected to be used in a super utility role. The trade could indicate confidence in Baez’s conversion.
It’s possible the Cubs are narrowing on a free agent outfield acquisition. Top available names include Austin Jackson, David DeJesus, and Shane Victorino. Ian Desmond could also be viewed as an option.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Tigers, Yankees, Coghlan
The Mets appear to be keeping tabs on Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in his latest video. Of the two, Ramirez is the more practical target for New York. He is expected to retire after the season and does not have a no-trade clause. The Mets are also interested in Ben Zobrist, but they believe other teams will outbid them.
- The Tigers may not need to buy at the trade deadline due to the impending returns of Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Bruce Rondon, and Alex Avila. The lineup has struggled to push runs across the plate, but they lead the AL in OBP. When asked by Rosenthal, GM Dave Dombrowski said there are no scenarios under which the club could become deadline sellers. That means David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alfredo Simon are unlikely to be traded.
- The Yankees rotation may not be a priority at the trade deadline if the current starters remain healthy. In addition to the current options, Ivan Nova will begin a rehab assignment soon. Prospects Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell provide further depth. The club could still acquire a star like Cole Hamels, but GM Brian Cashman says some of their top prospects are untouchable.
- The easiest position for the Cubs to upgrade is left field. Chris Coghlan is hitting just .224/.298/.421 on the season. An unusually low .245 BABIP explains his low average. The club could hope for BABIP regression or replace him in one of several ways. They could trade for somebody like Zobrist. Alternatively, Javier Baez could be promoted to man third base with Kris Bryant moving to the outfield.
Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures
With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.
Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.
That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).
Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.
And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:
- The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
- Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
- Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
- Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
- Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).
Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:
- David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
- Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
- The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
- Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
- The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
- On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures set for noon CT, there figure to be a large number of agreements to avoid arb today, as there were yesterday. All arbitration agreements can be followed using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, and we’ll keep track of today’s smaller agreements in this post, with all projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…
- Righty Henderson Alvarez agreed to a $4MM deal with the Marlins, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported earlier today on Twitter. Alvarez had been projected to earn $4.5MM after putting up a huge 187-inning, 2.65 ERA campaign entering his first season of arb eligibility.
- The Athletics have agreed to a $1.4MM deal with righty Ryan Cook that includes, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports on Twitter. Cook gets a slight increase over the $1.3MM he had been projected to earn. Oakland has also inked outfielder Sam Fuld to a $1.75MM deal, per Mike Perchik of WAPT (via Twitter). He too lands just above his projection, which was for $1.6MM.
- Outfielder Collin Cowgill avoided arbitration with the Angels for $995K, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets. He was projected to earn $900K.
- Righties David Carpenter and Nathan Eovaldi both have deals with the Yankees, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports on Twitter. Carpenter will earn about $1.3MM while Eovaldi will take home $3.3MM
- The Rockies have a deal in place with lefty Rex Brothers, tweets MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Brothers was projected to earn $1.3MM but will take home $1.4MM, Harding adds via Twitter.
- ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Cubs have settled with both Travis Wood and Luis Valbuena (Twitter links). Wood will receive $5.686MM — a bit north of his $5.5MM projection, while Valbuena will earn $4.2MM, per Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald (on Twitter). Valbuena was projected to earn $3.1MM.
- Mike Perchick of WAPT in New Jersey has a wave of arbitration agreements, starting with the Astros and Hank Conger settling on a $1.075MM, which is just $25K behind Swartz’s projection (Twitter link).
- Also via Perchick, the Athletics and Brett Lawrie settled on a $1.925MM contract (Twitter links). Lawrie, who had been projected at $1.8MM, was acquired by Oakland in the Josh Donaldson blockbuster.
- Rockies backstop Michael McKenry will earn $1.0876MM in 2015, via Perchick. McKenry was projected by Swartz to earn $1.5MM.
- Michael Pineda and the Yankees settled on a $2.1MM salary for the upcoming season, Perchick tweets, which is a direct match with Swartz’s projection.
- Domonic Brown and the Phillies settled on a one-year pact worth $2.6MM, via Perchick, which represents a difference of just $100K between Swartz’s projection and the actual figure. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com tweets that Ben Revere has avoided arbitration as well, and the club now announces that he’ll earn $4.1MM — $100K north of his $4MM projection.
- Red Sox setup man Junichi Tazawa agreed to a $2.25MM payday, according to Perchick. Swartz had pegged him for a $2MM contract.
Central Notes: Pirates, Ruggiano, Pirates, Bastardo
If the Pirates can’t land a reliever this week, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests that the Bucs could move Edinson Volquez to the bullpen. Volquez, who has hit 98 mph on the gun this season, has been trending down since April. More from the Central Divisions..
- The Cubs have rebuffed inquiries by the Yankees and others for outfielder Justin Ruggiano, and also are expecting to keep the rejuvenated Chris Coghlan, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. They might also look to trade outfielder Nate Schierholtz, but they can put him through waivers in August and make a deal then. Meanwhile, the versatile Emilio Bonifacio is now drawing interest.
- The Pirates are showing interest in Phillies left-hander Antonio Bastardo and outfielder Marlon Byrd, sources tell Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
- A couple of baseball executives think that the Pirates might get into the Jon Lester trade talks with the Red Sox, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Nick Delmonico, who came to the Brewers in last year’s Francisco Rodriguez trade, was suspended 50-games for a positive drug test, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.
- It’ll be hard for the Indians to get real value for Asdrubal Cabrera without eating some of his contract, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. Cabrera earns $10MM this season.