Injury Notes: Dodgers, Mariners, Altuve, Mets
The Dodgers expect their top two starters, left-hander Clayton Kershaw and right-hander Walker Buehler, and shortstop Corey Seager to be ready for the beginning of the season, manager Dave Roberts said Sunday (Twitter links via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Kershaw – who has been working back from a shoulder issue for two weeks – is set to throw a bullpen session Monday, while Buehler will throw live batting practice again Tuesday or Wednesday. Though Buehler’s not injured, the Dodgers are taking a careful approach with the 24-year-old wunderkind this spring after he experienced a massive innings increase from 2017-18. The Dodgers have also been cautious with Seager, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery and a left hip procedure.
- Manager Scott Servais issued updates on a few key Mariners on Sunday, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Greg Johns of MLB.com (all Twitter links). Third baseman Kyle Seager, brother of the aforementioned Corey Seager, underwent an MRI on Saturday on his injured left wrist. The results aren’t available yet, however. Outfielder Mallex Smith, who has been shelved the past few weeks because of a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, is making progress and could take batting practice Monday. Reliever Hunter Strickland has been unavailable since last Sunday with lower back tightness, but Servais doesn’t think it’s serious, nor should it keep the former Giant out for much longer.
- The Astros are shutting down second baseman Jose Altuve “for a few days,” manager A.J. Hinch told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters Sunday. Altuve’s battling left side soreness, though the Astros don’t believe it’s anything “alarming,” and they’re hoping the superstar can return to Grapefruit League action late next week, according to Hinch.
- Mets reliever Drew Smith is heading back to New York for an evaluation of his sore right elbow, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to report. Smith’s attempt to win a season-opening spot in the Mets’ bullpen is on hold as a result. In his first major league action last season, the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.66 FIP with 5.79 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 over 28 innings.
California Notes: Giants, Baer, A’s, Lucroy, Angels, Dodgers
A few items from the Golden State…
- Giants officials have taken time this weekend to discuss how to proceed with CEO Larry Baer, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle hears. After Baer was involved in a public altercation with his wife on Friday, it’s possible the Giants will have him temporarily give up day-to-day control of the franchise and replace him with an in-house executive, Schulman suggests. That would enable the Giants to go forth with their business as Baer deals with whatever consequences may come his way. As of now, though, the Giants haven’t made a decision, per Schulman.
- Catcher Jonathan Lucroy fit in well among the Athletics’ players and coaches last year, but the A’s didn’t show much interest in re-signing him during the offseason, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. While the two sides held talks in free agency, the A’s never approached the $3.5MM offer he accepted from the Angels, Slusser reports. With Lucroy now a member of a division rival, the A’s are down to the unspectacular Josh Phegley and Chris Herrmann as the only catchers on their 40-man roster. The club did add veteran Nick Hundley on a minor league deal, though, and well-regarded prospect Sean Murphy could debut in 2019.
- Lucroy’s new team is dealing with some mild injury concerns, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com writes. The Angels scratched southpaw Andrew Heaney (elbow inflammation) and Zack Cozart (left calf tightness) from Sunday’s game because of their issues. This is the second straight spring with elbow inflammation for Heaney, who started last season on the injured list because of it. However, the 27-year-old doesn’t think the inflammation is as serious this time, and it wasn’t much of a detriment in 2018 – after all, Heaney did go on to throw a team-high 180 innings during the regular season. Similarly, Cozart’s injury seems minor, though it’s not what the team wants to see as he begins the second season of a three-year, $38MM contract. Cozart fell flat over 253 plate appearances last year before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in late June.
- Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register provides updates on injured Dodgers stars Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager, tweeting that both players are progressing in their recoveries. Kershaw, who has battled shoulder problems this spring, came out of Sunday’s throwing session unscathed. And Seager will play in a game Monday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. It’s a “significant step forward” for the standout shortstop, Plunkett notes.
NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff
Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.
As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …
- President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
- Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
- Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.
Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer
Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…
- The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit.
- Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs.
- Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
- The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
- The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
- The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
- The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
- The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.
Earlier Updates
Quick Hits: Judge, Seager, Rays
Yankees sophomore sensation Aaron Judge is still feeling pain when he swings a bat, per a tweet from Marc Carig of The Athletic. Certainly there’s still time for him to regain his health and strength in advance of the postseason (we still have three weeks until October, after all), but the news has to be disconcerting both for the Yankees organization and for Judge himself. The outfielder has been out of commission since July 26th after sustaining a chip fracture in his wrist, and though it was reported as recently as yesterday that he could be nearing a return after he was able to participate in on-field drills, the news that his pain level (still describes as a “4” on a 1-10 scale) casts some doubt on the notion that he could be back on the field within the next week or so.
- Corey Seager expects to play shortstop for the Dodgers next year, as he tells Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Seager has had massive misfortune this year in regards to injuries; he suffered a UCL injury early on in the season that required the infamous Tommy John procedure, and had to undergo a second procedure on his hip soon thereafter. Recently, though, he’s expressed confidence in his recovery from these surgeries. Seager is already off of crutches, and he looks forward to resuming a throwing program next month. “Based to this point, I’ll be ready to go,” Seager said. “I should, ‘quote unquote,’ have a pretty normal spring. It will probably be a little slow in the beginning, but should be pretty normal.”
- In light of the Rays‘ success with creativity this season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details some of the most interesting aspects of the club’s strategy in 2018. Carig explores various aspects of the club’s advances back to contention, highlighted by the purging of veterans in order to bring focus to a new, young core. The coming out parties for players like Jake Bauers and Joey Wendle have been fun to watch, to be sure. But equally interesting has been their improvements in much broader aspects of the game: a few mentioned by Carig include the team’s improvement on the hard contact and line drive front, trimming of strikeouts, spike in batting average, and, of course, the adoption and implementation of the “opener” strategy.
Corey Seager To Undergo Hip Surgery
Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager is slated to undergo surgery on his left hip tomorrow, the club announced. He is already out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
The organization says in its statement that Seager is “expected to resume baseball activities in January.” That would seemingly make it possible for him to participate fully in Spring Training.
Of course, that timeline is somewhat tighter than seems preferable. Seager has already been out for over three months and was experiencing some hip problems just before his elbow ligament popped. It obviously would have been preferable to use that time to rehab both issues. Presumably, there’s an explanation, though it hasn’t yet been given publicly.
Seager, 24, has been a high-end performer since breaking into the league at 21 years of age late in the 2015 season. He had not been in top form in the early stages of the 2018 season, though that might well have changed with a hot streak. All said, Seager carries a .302/.372/.494 slash with 54 home runs through 1,528 MLB plate appearances. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this fall, though his ill-timed health problems will significantly dent his expected earnings.
Dodgers Notes: Ryu, Turner, Seager, Machado
Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu exited tonight’s start with a groin strain after throwing a 64mph pitch that was the slowest pitch he’s ever thrown in the Majors (h/t: J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, on Twitter). The Dodgers announced a left groin strain for Ryu, and manager Dave Roberts didn’t sound optimistic about the injury postgame, calling it a “pretty good strain” and adding that Ryu is headed for an MRI (Twitter link via Pedro Moura of The Athletic). A lengthy absence for Ryu would be a major blow for the Dodgers, who’ve no doubt relished watching the southpaw bounce back to peak form with a dominant 2.12 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and 56.7 percent ground-ball rate in 29 2/3 innings thus far in 2018.
The Dodgers have been hammered by injuries early this season, with Corey Seager done for the season due to Tommy John surgery and Justin Turner still yet to suit up after suffering a broken wrist in Spring Training. The Dodgers don’t sound especially optimistic on Turner at the moment, either, as Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweets that skipper Dave Roberts simply said tonight that he has “no idea” when Turner will be cleared to head out on a minor league rehab assignment.
A bit more out of Los Angeles…
- Seager, Roberts and GM Farhan Zaidi spoke with reporters at Chase Field following the announcement of Seager’s devastating injury (link via McCullough). While there was immediate speculation about the possibility of the Dodgers seeking out a trade, Zaidi suggested that for the time being, the Dodgers will look to in-house options, with Chris Taylor assuming responsibilities at shortstop. (Few teams, after all, are willing to part with a difference-making infielder at this point on the calendar.) Seager told the media that he felt his elbow give out over the weekend when making a relay throw on Sunday, explaining the feeling as a sudden bout of numbness in his elbow. The 23-year-old star dealt with bone chips and inflammation in the elbow last summer, according to McCullough, though extensive testing led medical experts to recommend against surgery at season’s end. It’s not clear how much, if any, ligament damage existed in Seager’s elbow following the 2017 season, of course, and undergoing a major surgery (especially Tommy John surgery) at that point still could very well have wiped him out for most, if not all of the 2018 season.
- In the wake of the Seager injury, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times spoke to Manny Machado about the widespread speculation of the Dodgers potentially pursuing him on the trade market. Machado said he’s not had anyone reach out to him about the possibility, and Shaikin writes that the superstar infielder didn’t sound overly amenable to granting a potential trade partner a window to negotiate an extension. “Everyone has waited for the time to become a free agent,” said Machado. “You want to go out there and explore your options.” The 25-year-old did leave the door open a bit, adding that there’s “a price for everything” before stating that he hopes to remain with the Orioles at least through the 2018 season. Of course, as Machado also acknowledged, his future is largely out of his hands; he has no say over whether he’s traded or remains an Oriole. Per Shaikin, the O’s have no plans to accelerate their timeline for a potential Machado deal now that the Dodgers have a glaring need. Certainly, it’s possible that other clubs will join the pursuit later this year, thus driving up the price. And while the O’s had a dreadful start to the season, the organization undoubtedly is still holding out faint hope for a rebound in May and early June before conceding that the season is lost.
Corey Seager To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Miss Remainder Of 2018
The Dodgers have announced stunning news regarding top young shortstop Corey Seager. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the remainder of the 2018 season, according to the team.
For the time being, infielder Breyvic Valera will come up to take the open roster spot created by Seager hitting the DL. But he won’t come close to accounting for the yawning gap created by Seager’s absence the rest of the way. Seager had dealt with elbow troubles late in 2017, but the news still comes as a major surprise.
Los Angeles entered the season with one of the game’s best duos on the left side of the infield. Though third baaseman Justin Turner has missed the first month of the season, the hope was that he’d soon re-join Seager and re-create a unit that combined for about 12 fWAR annually over the past two campaigns. Instead, the team will cross its fingers that Turner can regain his form at the hot corner while scrambling to account for the hole at short.
Despite a tepid start from the Dodgers overall, it has remained reasonable to anticipate that the club would begin picking up the pace as the season wears on. But losing Seager takes away the Los Angeles organization’s top position player and makes the road to a sixth-straight NL West title seem much tougher.
Despite his own middling run to begin the 2018 campaign — a .257/.339/.366 slash through 115 plate appearances — Seager is viewed as one of the top young talents in baseball. After all, he is a .301/.372/.492 hitter in over 1,500 MLB plate appearances, with quality glovework and baserunning adding to his value. And he just turned 24 three days ago.
Looking to the future, the hope will obviously be that Seager can rehab and get back to full health in advance of the 2019 season. As a position player, rather than a pitcher, the odds are much better that he’ll be able to participate fully in spring camp next year. In the best-case scenario, perhaps, he’ll also have an opportunity to rest some other maladies that have arisen over the years and enjoy a full and unrestrained 2019 campaign. Unfortunately for the young star, the timing of the injury will rob him of a chance at compiling statistics in his final pre-arbitration season, meaning he’ll earn far less next season (and for the following two campaigns) than he would reasonably have anticipated.
More immediately, the Dodgers need to figure out how to make it through the current season. Perhaps the club can account directly for the loss of Seager by moving Chris Taylor back to short, which is the position he broke into the majors playing. Of course, that’d just allow another leak to spring in center field, where Taylor has mostly lined up in 2018. While the organization can call upon its outfield depth — including just-promoted top prospect Alex Verdugo — to make things work, the result is obviously a less-fearsome lineup than it expected to be fielding.
The loss of Seager does create an obvious and intriguing — but still quite speculative — match on paper between the Dodgers and Orioles. The Baltimore club has limped out of the gates in spite of a monster first month from Manny Machado, who is one of a relative few players in baseball (and the only one reasonably available via trade) in Seager’s league at the shortstop position. Doing so, particularly early, would mean not only coughing up a haul of talent but also executing some financial tightrope walking. The club premised its offseason strategy on staying beneath the luxury tax line to re-set its tax obligations, and has just over $15MM of wiggle room to work with at last look. That makes Machado (who’s earning $16MM in his final season of arb eligibility) a tight squeeze. Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, who could opt out of his contract in the coming offseason, is also an interesting-but-expensive conceivable target, though he’s on the DL at the moment. Odds are, the Dodgers will take their time in assessing the possibilities before they make a highly consequential move.
NL Notes: Seager, Cabrera, Braves, Dickey
After going without him in the NLCS, the Dodgers have officially activated star shortstop Corey Seager for the World Series. Given his balky back, however, the team may look to him as a DH for the games played in Houston, as J.P. Hoornstra writes in the Orange County Register. Those interested in some reading in advance of the Fall Classic may also like to check out the Register’s Bill Plunkett’s piece on the analytics-driven organizations squaring off this year.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Mets are “almost certain” to exercise their option over infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, according to a tweet from Marc Carig of Newsday. We have heard such indications previously, to be sure, though it’s fair to say there have been countervailing considerations as well. With much of the offseason planning likely already completed, though, the Mets seem largely to have decided upon a course. As I discussed about six weeks back, there’s a solid case to be made that Cabrera’s $8.5MM option will deliver greater value than the team could find by paying a $2MM buyout and pursuing an alternative. Most of MLBTR’s readers favored the Mets hanging onto Cabrera in the poll available at that link.
- A former Braves scout has written a letter to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, in which he offers something of a different perspective on recently-resigned GM John Coppolella. The scout credited Coppolella for his respectful interactions with similarly situated employees, painting rather a different picture than some other accounts have. Of course, the letter does not seem to speak to any assessment of alleged international signing violations against Coppolella or others in the organization.
- With Atlanta parting ways with R.A. Dickey, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer considers whether the veteran knuckler could make sense for the Reds. Dickey has indicated that Cincinnati is on a very short list of cities he’d consider playing in, given its proximity to his home in Nashville. But Rosecrans also suggests the Reds would likely not be willing to pay Dickey in quite the same range that the Braves did. The contract he signed last winter guaranteed $8MM, though he earned every penny with 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball. That made it seem likely that the Braves would bring him back, with the move perhaps hinting that Dickey was already determined to hang up his spikes. Still, if there is some possibility of Dickey carrying on, the Reds would likely be wise to explore a deal with him as a means of addressing the team’s dearth of established rotation pieces.