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Trevor Story

Rockies Place Trevor Story On IL

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7:23pm: Story’s injury won’t require surgery, though the shortstop will be out of action for “multiple weeks,” as per The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter link).

1:45pm: Story is headed to the IL, per a club announcement, with Brendan Rodgers up to replace him on the active roster. The full outlook for the injury remains unknown at this time.

7:34am: Rockies shortstop Trevor Story left the team’s win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday with a right thumb injury. He’ll undergo an MRI on Thursday, Nick Groke of The Athletic was among those to report.

X-rays on Story’s thumb were negative Wednesday, but as Groke notes, that doesn’t guarantee he’s out of the woods. Despite a negative X-ray on a left thumb injury in August 2016, Story still had to undergo season-ending surgery on account of a torn UCL in the digit. The Rockies weren’t serious contenders at that point, though, whereas they’re in the hunt for their third straight playoff berth this season. After Wednesday’s win, the club sits 39-34 and tied with the Phillies for the National League’s second wild-card spot.

The Rockies’ success in recent years has come thanks in no small part to Story, who exploded on the scene as a big-hitting defensive standout in 2015. The 26-year-old is off to a .294/.360/.547 start this season with a 120 wRC+, 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.9 fWAR in 328 plate appearances. Story has also appeared in 72 of Colorado’s 73 games in 2019.

The Rockies replaced Story on Wednesday with Pat Valaika. However, the team could recall Brendan Rodgers or Garrett Hampson from Triple-A Albuquerque if it has to put Story on the injured list.

Rockies Interested In Additional Extensions

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The Rockies are fully on board the extension train, having inked two significant deals with existing players this winter (Nolan Arenado, German Marquez) after doing the same this time last year with Charlie Blackmon. Club owner Dick Monfort indicated today that the team is interested in pursuing yet more deals, as Nick Groke of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).

Two players, in particular, seem to be in the crosshairs for Monfort and his front office, which is led by GM Jeff Bridich. Shortstop Trevor Story is one; Monfort said that the team would rather ink a long-term deal than try to find an eventual free-agent replacement. And Monfort also suggests he sees a path to a multi-year arrangement with lefty Kyle Freeland.

It’s interesting to see the concept of a free-agent replacement cited in relation to Story, since the Rox’ top prospect is also a shortstop. Brendan Rodgers figures to be ready for the majors well before Story hits the open market in advance of the 2022 season, though perhaps the preference is for an infield that features both — along with Arenado.

Story, certainly, has shown himself worthy of an investment. The 26-year-old turned in a sub-par season with the bat in 2017 but still launched 24 long balls. He has been outstanding with the bat in his other two seasons in the majors. Last year, he drove the ball out of the park 37 times and slashed .291/.348/.567 over 656 plate appearances — good for a healthy 127 wRC+. Story also swiped 27 bags. While his defensive metrics lagged following a strong ’17 showing, he has graded in range of league average at short. It’s an impressive overall package.

The Rox aren’t likely to get too much of a discount on a deal with Story. He’s already earning $5MM this season, which sets the stage for large earnings in his final two seasons of arbitration. With age generally on his side, and big money already locked in, Story can hold out for a significant payday.

As for Freeland, there’s always more risk for a pitcher — particularly one who calls Coors Field home. But altitude comes with the territory for the Colorado native, who’s in the same 2+ (non-Super Two) service class as Marquez. Freeland is a bit older — he’ll soon turn 26, while Marquez only just turned 24 — but has an argument for even greater earnings after a monster 2018 season. (Marquez was guaranteed $43MM over five years.)

Freeland showed ample promise in his MLB debut, but took things to quite a surprising new level last year. In 202 1/3 innings, he worked to a 2.85 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a 46.0% groundball rate. That showing earned him a fourth-place finish in the N.L. Cy Young voting — and probably would’ve warranted higher placement in most seasons.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that Marquez is the better pitcher to invest in, but that’s not to say that Freeland isn’t worthy — even if he does end up costing more. His history of 50+% groundball rates in the minors is noteworthy. And his productivity to date has already boosted his arb earning capabilities, so the Rockies figure to face some reasonably significant obligations in the near term.

It’s not clear whether talks will be pursued in the immediate term with either player. The team may prefer to wait and see how the season shakes out. Rodgers could reduce the long-term need for Story; Freeland may not repeat his ’18 successes. On the other hand, repeat showings from these quality younger players could make it that much more expensive to secure their services for the future.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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Trevor Story Cleared Of Structural Damage In Elbow

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7:10pm: Despite that ominous report from Rosenthal, manager Bud Black tells reporters that Story’s MRI did not show any structural damage, and his ulnar collateral ligament is intact (Twitter link via Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller). In fact, Black adds that he hopes to have Story back in the lineup in “a few days.”

1:59pm: There’s nothing official yet, and perhaps the details are still unknown even to team and player, but the initial indication is not terribly promising. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, Story is “facing potential UCL damage in [his] right elbow.”

In the worst case, of course, a tear of the ulnar collateral ligament can require Tommy John surgery, though there’s no indication to this point whether that will even be considered. Story’s outlook will be better than that of a pitcher, regardless of the final diagnosis, but even a strain could require enough rest to knock him out for the rest of the season and most, if not all, of the postseason.

8:16am: The Rockies are awaiting further word on shortstop Trevor Story, who exited last night’s contest with what the team described as elbow soreness. Story is slated to undergo further examination and testing today, as Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports (Twitter links).

It’s a worrying situation for a Colorado club that went on to drop the first of a critical three-game set to the Dodgers, thereby surrendering the top spot in the NL West. Even a brief absence from Story could be of great significance; as Dan Symborski of Fangraphs observed on Twitter, the outcome of this series has a massive impact on the probabilities of which team will win the division.

Story, 25, has turned in an outstanding season after a sophomore slump in 2017. Through 623 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .288/.343/.550 slash with 33 home runs. He still strikes out a lot and doesn’t draw many walks, but Story has pared back on the swing-and-miss (26.2% K rate; 11.5% swinging strike rate) as against his prior seasons, even while increasing his swing and chase rates.

While his glovework hasn’t graded as brilliantly this year as last, Story also combines with third bagger Nolan Arenado to form a gifted defensive pairing. Story is even expanding his repertoire a bit this year, swiping 26 bags after not reaching double-digits in either of his first two MLB campaigns.

In sum, the Rockies don’t have much hope of replacing Story’s productivity for any stretch he ends up missing. At this stage of the season, there’s little to do but call upon the next man up and hope for the best. Of course, Story has played almost every inning at short this season, so it’s not entirely clear how the club will fill in. Ian Desmond spent much of his career there and has shifted to short twice already this season. Otherwise, Pat Valaika and Garrett Hampson are the only active players who’ve appeared at the position in 2018.

Clearly, then, a swift return would be most welcome. Story says he experienced pain while throwing and swinging after diving for a ball early in the game, which sounds a bit ominous. But Black suggests there’s at least some cause for optimism after the initial look from the team’s training staff. Of course, he also acknowledged “some apprehension” while waiting for imaging results — an understandable position with so much at stake.

NL West Notes: Hirano, Mitchell, Rockies

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New Diamondbacks reliever Yoshihisa Hirano, who has spent his entire pro career to date with the Orix Buffaloes in Nippon Professional Baseball, addressed the Japanese media following his completion of the contract and spoke about his jump from NPB to MLB (English link via the Kyodo News). Hirano said that the comfort he found using a Major League ball (rather than the slightly different NPB ball) during this year’s World Baseball Classic gave him confidence that he’d be able to pitch in MLB. As he became increasingly aware of MLB scouts attending his outings in Japan, he thought more and more about making the move. “Truthfully, if I hadn’t heard that I might not have been thinking of going,” said Hirano. The 33-year-old righty would relish the opportunity to square off against new Angels star Shohei Ohtani in the batter’s box, and the D-backs and Halos do have four interleague games. The Kyodo report notes that Hirano has faced Ohtani 15 times in Japan, allowing only an infield single.

A few more notes out of the West…

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller tells Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Baseball America that he’d had his eye on right-hander Bryan Mitchell for quite some time before finally acquiring him from the Yankees earlier this month. “He’s a guy who our scouting group had talked about a lot the last three years,” says Preller. “He has big fastball velocity, and he’s got a really good breaking pitch in there, too.” Preller goes on to state that the upside with Mitchell was more intriguing to the Friars than most of the free-agent market. Manager Andy Green, meanwhile, notes that the Padres feel they’ll be able to give him a more consistent role (presumably in the rotation), which could help the 26-year-old tap into his potential.
  • MLB.com’s Thomas Harding answers several offseason-focused questions in his latest Rockies Inbox column. In Harding’s estimation, Greg Holland “remains the favorite” to return as the Rockies’ closer in 2018, though he notes there are other options if the Rockies are ultimately outbid. A low-cost look at Adrian Gonzalez doesn’t seem likely with Ryan McMahon on the horizon, per Harding, who also notes that the Rockies remain in contact with Mark Reynolds about a potential reunion, which could further crowd the team’s list of first base options. Harding also opines that a trade of Trevor Story is unlikely, even with Brendan Rodgers looming in the minors, and he looks at the team’s pitching staff for the ’18 season as well.

NL West Notes: Bettis, Rox, Cahill, Cosart, Melancon

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Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis shared some good news today, via Instagram, announcing that he’s wrapped up his final session of chemotherapy. Bettis has yet to pitch this season after learning in Spring Training that the testicular cancer for which he underwent surgery this offseason had unexpectedly spread. While it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to return to a big league mound, Bettis noted that he’s now “excited to move forward and start the process of getting back.” Best wishes to Chad in his continued recovery.

A bit more out of the NL West…

  • In other Rockies news, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes that David Dahl, Tom Murphy and Trevor Story are all progressing toward a return to the lineup. Dahl is now cleared to take batting practice and will move to full baseball activities if that goes well. He’ll obviously require a notable minor league rehab stint before returning from a stress reaction in his ribcage, as he’s been out since early Spring Training. Murphy, meanwhile, has been throwing and is also nearing clearance to take “legit” batting practice, per manager Bud Black. And Story recently took ground-balls and is on the brink of baseball activities as well. After being shut down for a few days, Story tells Saunders that his ailing shoulder once again feels normal.
  • The Padres announced today that right-hander Trevor Cahill has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a right shoulder strain. Shoulder injuries in pitchers are often ominous, but as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes, there’s optimism that Cahill won’t be out long in this particular instance. Cahill experienced some soreness near the back of his shoulder in the final couple innings of his most recent start, and the hope is that a few days without throwing will alleviate the pain. Cahill has been nothing short of a revelation in San Diego. Given another chance to work as a starter after spending most of 2015-16 in a relief role, Cahill has turned in 41 1/3 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with an eye-popping 11.1 K/9 rate against 3.7 BB/9 with a brilliant 60.2 percent ground-ball rate. Given those numbers and his minimal $1.75MM salary, a healthy Cahill would be an in-demand trade chip this summer.
  • Cassavell also notes that right-hander Jarred Cosart will step into the rotation in Cahill’s place for the time being, and if he performs well, it could become a more permanent move. “It’s time for him to rise up and claim something that you really want as a Major Leaguer,” Padres manager Andy Green said of Cosart. “You don’t get endless supply of opportunities. Sometimes things happen you can’t control, whatsoever. But where he is with us: Go run with it. We want to see him do great. We believe in what he has in his right arm.” Given the shaky performances elsewhere in the San Diego rotation, Cosart certainly seems to have the opportunity to earn a larger role with Cahill on the shelf. The soon-to-be-27-year-old former top prospect has had numerous chances to solidify himself in the past, however, and has yet to do so.
  • The Giants had planned to activate Mark Melancon from the disabled list this Friday but chose to bring him back two days earlier than expected, writes Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. San Francisco entered the day with the opportunity to close out a sweep of the division-rival Dodgers but knew that interim closer Derek Law wouldn’t be available after pitching four out of five days. The Giants were shut down by Clayton Kershaw, however, rendering Melancon’s early activation a bit of a moot point. The Giants entered the day with five straight wins under their belts (six in their past seven games), however, and the return of Melancon should only deepen the relief corps. Even after their recent improvements, though, the Giants are still in a 17-25 hole — nine games back from the division lead. Kelby Tomlinson was optioned to Triple-A to clear room for Melancon.

Injury Notes: Liriano, Story, Maeda, Braun, Red Sox

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The Blue Jays announced that left-hander Francisco Liriano has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to inflammation in his left shoulder. Righty Leonel Campos has been called up from Triple-A Buffalo in a corresponding move. While Liriano becomes the third Blue Jays starter to land on the disabled list (joining J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez), Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the team is hopeful that Liriano won’t need to spend more than the minimum 10 days on the shelf. Right-hander Mike Bolsinger will remain in the rotation and make what would’ve been Liriano’s next scheduled start on Monday, per Nicholson-Smith.

A few more notable injury updates from around the league…

  • The Rockies have placed shortstop Trevor Story on the 10-day DL due to a strained left shoulder, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Story initially suffered the injury two nights ago in at-bat against the Cubs, though his struggles at the plate have been an ongoing issue since Opening Day. Story took Major League Baseball by storm in 2016 when he hit 27 homers through just 415 plate appearances as a rookie, though a torn ligament in his thumb cut his season short in early August. It’s possible that there are some lingering effects of that issue, as Story has batted a woeful .180/.289/.396 with a 37.5 percent strikeout rate through his first 33 games in 2017.
  • The Dodgers have lost yet another starter to the disabled list, as right-hander Kenta Maeda has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to tightness in his left hamstring. Maeda, who took a shutout into the ninth inning of last night’s game, has been excellent over his past three outings (2.21 ERA, 21-to-4 K/BB ratio in 20 1/3 innings) following a rough start to the season. There’s no word on precisely how long Maeda will be sidelined just yet, though he joins Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Brock Stewart on the L.A. disabled list.
  • Brewers slugger Ryan Braun is likely headed to the disabled list, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). Braun recently had an MRI on a strained calf and has also been dealing with some forearm discomfort, and a short trip to the DL would allow him to rest up both issues. “I can’t really run or throw,” Braun told reporters (via Haudricourt). “Hopefully, if I get [a] little bit of downtime I’ll be able to get back to full strength.” That doesn’t sound like there’s a lengthy trip in order, but it certainly does seem to suggest that a DL placement is looming.
  • Carson Smith is throwing a pair of bullpen sessions this week for the Red Sox, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, but fellow right-hander Tyler Thornburg doesn’t appear to be that far along. Both Smith and Thornburg were acquired over the past two offseasons in an effort to help build a bridge to Craig Kimbrel, but injuries have prevented the Sox from reaping any value from either trade. ““With Tyler, we’ll still trying to get him through some more aggressive flatground work,” manager John Farrell told reporters earlier this week. “…“It’s been a little bit of a puzzle for all involved here including Tyler, because the MRI’s that he’s gone through, while showing a little bit of an impingement, hasn’t revealed anything more structural than that.”

NL West Notes: Greinke, Senzatela, Rockies/Dodgers Renewals

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Diamondbacks righty Zack Greinke again showed less-than-ideal velocity in his latest spring outing, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. The veteran hurler did push over 90 at times, but fell back to the 86 to 88 mph range later in his start. Still, pitching coach Mike Butcher said Greinke is “right where he needs to be at this point,” suggesting that the heat could still build over camp. As Piecoro explains, there’s plenty more to Greinke’s game than velocity, though clearly more is generally better. Last year, Greinke averaged 91.3 mph with his four-seamer and 90.7 with his two-seam fastball, both of which were career lows, but only by a half of a mile per hour or so.

Here’s more from the NL West:

  • The Rockies are giving a real look at young righty Antonio Senzatela in their suddenly wide-open rotation battle, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. Though he only managed seven starts at Double-A last year, owing to a conservative course of care for shoulder soreness, Senzatela has impressed this spring. With Colorado seeking to fill two jobs, the 22-year-old could be in the running. While it seems likely he’ll have rather strict innings limits for the upcoming season, Senzatela could conceivably be of greater utility early on. Manager Bud Black praised his repeatable mechanics and  ability to spot multiple pitches in the zone, which led to some “funny swings” in his most recent outing.
  • Meanwhile, the Rockies have continued to decline to consider large raises for their pre-arb players, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reporting that the organization renewed several important youngsters. Shortstop Trevor Story, outfielder David Dahl, catcher Tom Murphy, and righties Chad Bettis and Jon Gray were all renewed after failing to agree with the team’s proposed numbers. Story and Gray each got marginal raises over the minimum, earning $540K apiece; it’s not clear what the remaining players will get. Colorado has long drawn the ire of agents for its approach to setting pre-arb salaries, though it’s entirely within the rules to handle things this way.
  • It’s a similar situation with the Dodgers, though young stars Corey Seager and Joc Pederson will earn somewhat more than their peers in Colorado. As Heyman reports, both players were renewed after highly productive seasons, with Seager receiving $575K and Pederson checking in at $555K. Though the latter was nearly as productive offensively as the former, and is one service class ahead, the club likely saw fit to recognize Seager’s NL Rookie of the Year nod and third-place finish in the MVP voting. Meanwhile, exciting young southpaw Julio Urias was also renewed, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register. He’ll receive $540K during whatever portion of the season he ends up playing in the majors.

Trevor Story Likely Out For Season With Torn Thumb Ligament

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4:57pm: Story says that he will have surgery and expects to miss the rest of the season, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding tweets.

4:06pm: The Rockies have placed shortstop Trevor Story on the 15-day DL with a torn UCL in his left thumb, the club announced. It’s a major blow to the outside chances the team had of making a run to the postseason in 2016.

Rafael Ynoa has been recalled to take Story’s place on the roster, but there’s little chance he’ll replicate the 23-year-old’s production. Colorado has received top-level production from Story, who was a well-regarded but (it now seems) under-hyped prospect before making his major league debut this year.

[Related: Updated Rockies Depth Chart]

Story had an amazing start to the year and really hasn’t looked back. All told, he owns a .272/.341/.567 batting line with a league-leading 27 long balls over 415 plate appearances. Even after adjusting for the effects of Coors Field, that’s about twenty percent better than league average in total offensive productivity.

Though he has racked up 130 strikeouts, that’s plenty forgivable given the quality of the contact Story is delivering when he does make contact. (Let’s just say he keeps good company in that regard.) And the well-struck balls also give hope that he can maintain something near his current .343 BABIP. Defensive metrics are split as to whether Story is slightly above-average (DRS) or below-average (UZR) with the glove, but combined view him generally as a mid-range defender at short.

This particular injury isn’t uncommon, and hasn’t generally seemed to pose major future obstacles to the players that have it. But it may well keep Story out for the rest of the year. Andrelton Simmons recently missed two months after having surgery for his own thumb UCL tear, and that kind of timeline would push right up against the end of the regular season.

Going without Story for most (if not all) of the rest of the season is going to put a big dent in Colorado’s chances of sticking in the NL West and Wild Card race. The club just held tight at the trade deadline, forgoing chances to sell veteran assets after a recent run of quality play had moved the team to within a game of .500. But even as their division and Wild Card rivals all made important additions in recent days, the Rockies will now go without one of their most productive players.

NL Notes: Glasnow, d’Arnaud, Story, Rizzo

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Coming into the season, Tyler Glasnow was expected to provide a mid-season boost to the Pirates rotation, and that looks likelier by the day. As MiLB.com’s Sam Dykstra writes, the young righty has been dominant at Triple-A and currently leads the International League in strikeout rate. Though a promotion seems all but inevitable at some point, the timing remains uncertain and may be dependent upon what the club can get from its current options (as well as its estimation of where the Super Two cutoff will fall). Jeff Locke is coming off of his best start of the year after some significant early struggles, while Juan Nicasio is throwing well enough currently to hold down another slot and Ryan Vogelsong remains a factor.

Here’s more from the National League …

  • The Mets may ultimately need to consider moving Travis d’Arnaud out from behind the plate, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post suggests. If d’Arnaud misses an extended stretch, argues Davidoff, the organization ought at least to think about alternatives to full-time catching. Of course, while the 27-year-old hit well enough last year (.268/.340/.485 in 268 plate appearances) to play anywhere on the diamond, he’s yet to carry that kind of production over even a full season and — regardless — is most valuable as a backstop.
  • Opposing pitchers have exhibited a new approach to breakout Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. After initially testing him on the inner half, with memorable results, hurlers are now attacking him away. While he’ll obviously have a chance to respond in the cat-and-mouse game, Story’s production has fallen off significantly. He still owns a rather productive .247/.306/.649 overall slash, but his 36.5% strikeout rate and recent lack of pull-side power opportunities certainly rate as concerns looking forward.
  • Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post questions the Nationals’ lack of action on GM Mike Rizzo’s contract. The veteran executive says he’s not yet heard anything, though he also expressed a lack of concern on the subject. While there’s no rush to decide on Rizzo’s two-year option (it’s due June 14), and expectations remain that he’ll remain with the organization, Svrluga says it remains a mystery why ownership hasn’t gone ahead and made a seemingly obvious decision to lock up club’s head baseball decisionmaker.
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