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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Blue Jays Have Considered Issuing Qualifying Offer To Steven Matz

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The Blue Jays will certainly be issuing qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray in the coming weeks, but there is potential for a third name on the list: Steven Matz. “Internally, the Blue Jays have debated whether to extend Matz a qualifying offer,” reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

The idea of extending an $18.4MM qualifying offer to Matz might come as a surprise to many baseball fans who weren’t paying close attention to the Blue Jays this year, and especially to Mets fans who watched him the year before. But the two campaigns could scarcely have been more different for the southpaw. In the shortened 2020 season, Matz missed a few weeks due to injury and ultimately threw 30 2/3 innings for the Mets with an awful ERA of 9.68. But after an offseason trade to the Blue Jays, Matz logged 150 2/3 innings for Toronto with an ERA of 3.82, accruing 2.8 fWAR in 2021, a personal best for him.

It now appears that 2020 is the outlier for Matz, as his 2021 numbers look very similar to those he talled in 2016, 2018 and 2019. In 2017, injuries limited him to 66 2/3 mediocre innings, but in four of the last six years, Matz has thrown between 132 and 161 frames with an ERA between 3.40 and 4.21, strikeout rate between 22% and 24% and walk rate between 5.7% and 9%. When healthy, he’s been a remarkably consistent mid-rotation arm. Considering his age (31 in May) and strong platform year, it’s possible this could be his best chance to land a big payday in free agency.

However, it seems like the chances Matz would accept a qualifying offer are high, considering that this would more than triple his annual pay. The lefty played 2021 on a salary of $5.25MM in his third and final arbitration season. A raise of that magnitude might be difficult to turn down, especially considering that he’d be attaching himself to draft pick forfeiture, thus putting a dent in his earning power. If he accepted, he would also return to the free agent market one year later, after the cloud of mystery around the next Collective Bargaining Agreement will have lifted. The current CBA expires December 1st, which creates a great deal of uncertainty as to how the offseason will play out. It would be entirely reasonable for a player to prefer to have their signature on a contract going into that vast unknown, as opposed to being untethered. The Blue Jays would likely have to give heavy consideration to how it would affect their offseason if the offer was both extended and accepted.

It was recently reported that the club expects payroll to go up next season, though it’s unclear exactly what kind of increase is possible. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently estimates next year’s payroll at just under $115MM, which is about $20MM shy of 2021’s opening day number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Adding $18.4MM for Matz would immediately make up the majority of that difference, meaning that the front office would be left with whatever payroll increase they have been granted by ownership, while still looking to re-sign or replace Ray and Semien, as well as upgrading a bullpen that was the team’s achilles heel at times in 2021. That would seem to suggest that the chances of the team deciding to eventually extend the offer to Matz are low, but the fact that they are even debating it perhaps suggests that the payroll increase could be significant.

The club’s 2022 rotation looks a bit frontloaded, now that Matz and Ray are set to depart. Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah make for a strong front three, with Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay on hand as potential options for the backend. There’s certainly room for the Blue Jays to add to that group before spring training rolls around, and they won’t be lacking for options. This year’s class of free agent starters includes such varied names as Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez and many more.

Marcus Semien Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation

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Marcus Semien has changed his representation just before he hits free agency, as the infielder is now a client of The Boras Corporation, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Semien joins a prominent list of Scott Boras clients on the open market this winter, including Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Carlos Rodon, and another big-name shortstop in Corey Seager.

It remains to be seen if Semien will play shortstop, second base, or perhaps a bit of both following his year as the keystone for the Blue Jays, though needless to say, he’ll have plenty of options available after an outstanding 2021 campaign.  Semien hit .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs over a league-high 724 plate appearances, setting a new MLB single-season record for most home runs hit by a second baseman.

After breaking out with a superstar-level year in 2019, Semien didn’t hit well over the first six weeks of the abbreviated 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 PA.  That proved detrimental to Semien’s market in his first trip through the free agent market last winter, and he chose to bet on himself by signing a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, in order to better position himself for a better long-term contract this offseason.

That strategy ended up working like a charm for Semien, and he has lined himself up for a healthy nine-figure deal this time around.  Even in a market loaded with top-tier shortstops, Semien is still projected to land one of the top contracts of any free agent in the 2021-22 class.  Semien is entering his age-31 season, but a guarantee of five or perhaps even six years seems feasible, considering how incredibly durable Semien has been throughout his career.

For Toronto fans worried that the agency change will make a return to the Jays less likely, it should be noted that the Blue Jays signed another major Boras client in Hyun Jin Ryu just two years ago.  Negotiating with Boras shouldn’t necessarily change the equation too much for the Jays, as the club already knew that re-signing Semien would come with a hefty price tag.  Team president Mark Shapiro recently said the Jays had interest in retaining all three of their top free agents (Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz), and some more money is expected to become available in the form of a payroll increase.

Blue Jays Deny Mets’ Request To Interview Mark Shapiro

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Blue Jays ownership recently denied the Mets’ request to interview Toronto president/CEO Mark Shapiro as part of New York’s ongoing front office search, report Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman and Mike Puma of the New York Post. Shapiro becomes the third known Mets’ target of the day to be ruled out as a possibility, joining Brewers GM Matt Arnold and Cardinals GM Michael Girsch.

A Shapiro pursuit would’ve always been a longshot, not too dissimilar from New York’s earlier unsuccessful runs at A’s executive vice president Billy Beane and Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns. Shapiro has paired with general manager Ross Atkins to run baseball operations for the Jays since 2015, and he inked a five-year contract extension this January. The Post scribes suggest it’s unlikely Shapiro would’ve given much thought to making the jump to Queens even if Jays ownership had given him the opportunity to do so.

New York has also had reported interest in Giants GM Scott Harris and Dodgers assistant GM Brandon Gomes, but both took themselves out of consideration in favor of remaining with their current clubs. Los Angeles senior vice president of baseball ops Josh Byrnes is among the publicly-known candidates who haven’t since been ruled out; the Mets are also reportedly considering a couple of internal options, and there are surely potential targets with other organizations whose names have yet to be reported.

Blue Jays Designate Jacob Barnes For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Jacob Barnes has been designated for assignment (hat tip to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).  The move creates roster space so Joakim Soria could be reinstated from the COVID-related injury list, a necessary procedural transaction before Soria hits the free agent market.

Toronto acquired Barnes from the Mets in June, as the Blue Jays were eager to find reinforcements for their struggling bullpen.  Barnes didn’t provide many answers, as he posted a 6.30 ERA over only 10 innings with the Jays before being DFA’ed in July and then outrighted off the 40-man roster in August.

While Barnes did have a 30.6% strikeout rate during his brief time with the Jays, he didn’t help his cause by posting a 12.2% walk rate — a reawakening of the control problems that have occasionally hampered Barnes at both the major and minor league levels over the last few years, though his career walk numbers are respectable.  Barnes did only allow one homer in a Blue Jays uniform, after surrendering six home runs over just 18 2/3 frames with the Mets earlier this season.

After posting some solid numbers out of the Brewers’ bullpen from 2016-18, Barnes has since posted a 6.58 ERA over 79 1/3 innings for five different teams over the last three seasons.  As per Statcast, Barnes has continued to post solidly above-average fastball spin rates throughout his career, but while his four-seam fastball continues to get positive results, he hasn’t had much success with secondary offerings.

Barnes is eligible for arbitration this winter, projected for a $1.2MM salary.  The DFA essentially looks like an early non-tender for the Jays, and since Barnes has over three years of MLB service time and has already been outrighted once this season, he can opt for free agency now rather than accept another outright assignment.

Blue Jays Expect To Raise Payroll In 2022

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The Blue Jays fell just short of achieving their goal of making the playoffs this season, but a 91-71 season has Toronto trending upward. That’s cold comfort for a fan base well-removed from its glory days, however. Following back-to-back World Series victories in 1992-93, Canada’s premier baseball club has made the playoffs just three times in the last 28 seasons – once during the shortened 2020 campaign that expanded the playoff field.

Still, the Jays appear on the cusp of sustained success that Canadians haven’t seen from their ball club since Joe Carter’s historic blast ended the 1993 season. Ownership seems to think so, too, as team president Mark Shapiro said today that, despite the COVID-related revenue losses, the payroll will continue to rise, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). With deadline acquisition Jose Berrios just a year from free agency, and young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette without long-term deals, the Jays will need to pony up significant dough to keep this core together and competitive long-term.

Cot’s Contracts put Toronto’s 2021 payroll bill to be around $154MM, tweets Nicholson-Smith, and it doesn’t sound as if the Jays are quite ready to consider exceeding the luxury tax. But there’s a fair amount of territory between the $210MM tax line (pending the new CBA) and the $154MM they spent in 2021. As of right now, they have an estimated $114MM projected for their 2022 roster, though that number included estimates for arbitration players and only includes contracts for those players under team control.

It’s no secret that Charlie Montoyo’s club has a couple of significant players heading towards free agency, namely second baseman Marcus Semien and starters Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. For what it’s worth, Shapiro didn’t shy away from saying they plan to try to bring those three back, per Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). But he also made a point of saying that improving the club is the priority, not bringing back the same 91-team from 2021.

So is bringing all three back a  reasonable expectation? Shapiro should have clarity from ownership on their spending limits in a month or so, per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (via Twitter). Shapiro certainly seemed to prepare the fan base to say goodbye to at least one of those three, if not more.

Semien is probably the most popular, as well as the safest bet considering his track record, but he also plays a position where the Jays have some depth – both in the near-and-long-term. Cavan Biggio could slide over to the keystone from the hot corner, as could 26-year-old Santiago Espinal after posting a surprising 115 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances. That could make Semien expendable.

Not to mention, Semien is likely looking for a long-term deal after making good on his season-long showcase, and the Jays have fast-rising 19-year-old infielder Orelvis Martinez making his way to the Majors. Martinez certainly isn’t ready to replicate Semien’s 6.6 fWAR season, but he might offer enough promise to push the Jays to devote their resources elsewhere.

Ray and Matz are coming off monster years considering where they’d been as recently as 2020, but the Jays need more starting pitching. Even with Berrios in the fold and Alek Manoah having established himself in the rotation, they still need an arm or two to fill out the rotation. Maybe they feel comfortable enough with the strides made by either Ray or Matz to invest in them long-term, but they might want to see the price tag first, too.

Toronto isn’t limiting their spending just to the payroll, however, as they’ve also allocated some organizational resources to upgrading the fan experience at the ballpark. There will be a new scoreboard at the Rogers Centre next season, per Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. That doesn’t mean a future move is outside the realm of possibility, though it certainly would seem that the Jays will have at least a near-term future in their usual confines. While that leaves a fair amount of wiggle room for the future, even a full season back in the Rogers Centre would be more stability than they’ve had in years.

AL Notes: Mariners, Blue Jays, Hernandez, Indians

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The offseason has already begun for 13 American League teams, with plenty of speculation about what some contenders and would-be contenders might have planned for winter moves.  The latest buzz from the AL…

  • The Mariners seemed poised for their most aggressive offseason in years, and The Athletic’s Corey Brock and MLBTR’s own Steve Adams took a look at the potential shape of Seattle’s next additions.  The proposal is a major signing (i.e. Marcus Semien) and then a few other prominent but somewhat lower-level free agents (such as Anthony DeSclafani, Jonathan Villar, Alex Wood), augmented with some trades to help bench depth and left-handed bullpen depth.  It remains to be seen whether or not the M’s will target any of these specific players, yet an offseason like this would certainly make Seattle a better team in 2022, and still leave payroll room for any other upgrades at the trade deadline.
  • Semien’s future was also one of several Blue Jays-related topics covered by The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm in his latest reader mailbag, with Chisholm opining that both Semien and Robbie Ray will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Should Semien leave, the Jays could address the hole at second base simply by moving their third base candidates (Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal) over to the keystone, and then acquiring a new third baseman.  In response to another question, Chisholm believes the Jays will probably hold off on extension talks with Teoscar Hernandez simply because the team is prioritizing more near-term moves, like adding more salary this winter and exploring a long-term deal with Jose Berrios.  Hernandez is still controlled through the 2023 season, and the Blue Jays could be content to just go year-to-year with Hernandez since outfield replacements are comparatively easy to find, even if few hitters at any position have equaled Hernandez’s production over the last two-plus seasons.
  • Speaking of finding outfielders, the Indians have long been looking for some stability on the grass, and the Tribe seemed to solidify at least one position when they acquired Myles Straw from the Astros at the trade deadline.  That leaves the corner outfield spots still to be addressed, and “since the summer months, the front office has fixated on consolidating its prospect capital in an attempt to land an established outfielder in a trade,” The Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Cleveland would likely prefer to work out that trade sooner rather than later, as November 19 is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Tribe have a surplus of players who might require 40-man placement.  Whether or not an early trade can be found, however, isn’t clear, as Meisel notes that some around baseball feel teams will generally hold back on any major moves until there is more clarity about the next collective bargaining agreement.

Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

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“However, it still wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs” is the inevitable add-on to any description of the Jays’ many positives in 2021, as despite winning 91 games, Toronto fell a game short of a wild card berth.  For instance, Jose Berrios came as advertised for the Jays, posting a 3.58 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate over 70 1/3 innings after Toronto acquired the righty from the Twins in a blockbuster of a trade deadline swap.

The Jays had the third-highest fWAR (7.1) of any group of starting pitchers in baseball from August 1 onward, as Berrios joined with Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Steven Matz to quietly turn Toronto’s rotation into one of the best in the league.  Berrios threw the second-most innings of any in that group, as his durable right arm proved especially valuable when Ryu battled some injury problems down the stretch.

And yet, it was still wasn’t….you know the rest.  While the Jays’ window of contention still looks to be wide open going forward, their near-miss in 2021 was costly since free agents Ray, Matz, and Marcus Semien could all be playing in other uniforms next year.  The clock is also now ticking a little louder on Berrios, who is under control for one more season before hitting free agency himself after the 2022 campaign.

That extra year of team control only added to Berrios’ value as a Twins trade chip, and in landing Berrios, the Blue Jays gained some insurance if Ray and/or Matz do leave this winter.  But, that insurance came with a steep premium, as the Jays had to surrender two consensus top-100 prospects to Minnesota — Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft), and Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the young arms the Jays acquired as part of the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019.

Toronto was willing to meet the Twins’ asking price in ordre to have Berrios on hand for two postseason pushes, and now that first push has come up empty-handed.  Signing Berrios to a contract extension would certainly alleviate a lot of the extra pressure inevitably associated with that trade, not to mention the more important big-picture aspect of locking up a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Looking at recent extensions for starting pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros last March that might serve as a floor for a new Berrios contract.  McCullers was entering his age-27 season at the time of the signing, and Berrios just turned 27 last May.  The McCullers extension also only covered his 2022-26 free agent years, as the righty and the Astros had already agreed to a $6.5MM salary for 2021, McCullers’ last arbitration-eligible year (though the deal did provide McCullers with a $3.5MM signing bonus).

As per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Berrios is projected to earn $10.9MM in his final arbitration-eligible season of 2022, a hefty bump from his $6.1MM salary from 2020.  So while something in the range of that salary could be baked into a potential extension, Berrios has the extra security of knowing he has a nice payday already coming his way this winter.

I cited McCullers as a floor rather than a true comp for a Berrios extension because Berrios has simply been the more valuable pitcher.  McCullers had posted some very solid career numbers at the time of his extension, though only over 508 2/3 innings, as a Tommy John surgery and some other injuries limited his usage.  If anything, the Astros were rolling the dice in committing $85MM to a pitcher with McCullers’ injury history, though his strong performance in 2021 should help quiet some doubts.

By contrast, Berrios has been the picture of durability throughout his big league career, never once making a trip to the injured list with either the Twins or Blue Jays.  Berrios has tossed at least 192 innings in each of the last three 162-game seasons, and his 647 2/3 IP since the start of the 2018 season ranks fifth among all pitchers in baseball.  Beyond just the durability, Berrios also has a 3.71 ERA/3.96 SIERA over the last four seasons, with an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.  Berrios’ hard-hit ball numbers are a little inconsistent, but 2021 saw him post the best grounder rate (42.8%) and walk rate (5.8%) of his career.

With this track record, Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman can surely argue that if McCullers is getting $85MM over five years, their client’s extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency.  Should Berrios post his typical numbers in 2022, he’ll certainly land a nine-figure deal next offseason, and his camp will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how the free agent deals signed by Ray, Stroman, and Kevin Gausman this offseason will raise the bar for the pitching market.

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

In short, it might be that nothing short of an overpay on the Blue Jays’ part would convince Berrios to forego his shot at the open market.  Since George Springer is the only Jay guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season, Toronto has plenty of open payroll space to work with, but with some caveats.  The Blue Jays will have to do some spending to replace or re-sign their impending free agents, and the team’s list of future commitments will grow exponentially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. are inked to extensions of their own.

Extending Berrios could be a tall order for the Toronto front office, though the team undoubtedly factored this into their plans when they traded for him in the first place.  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Jays’ backup plan is surely to recoup draft pick compensation for Berrios via the qualifying offer (assuming the QO rules aren’t changed in collective bargaining negotiations) to help fill the dent left in the farm system by the departures of Martin and Woods Richardson.  While the sting of that trade will be erased if Berrios does help the Jays to some October success in 2022, the club will certainly explore ways to keep Berrios in the fold for more than just one more run at a championship.

Blue Jays Tried To Acquire Jose Ramirez, Robbie Grossman At Deadline

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In an article about the Blue Jays’ upcoming offseason, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet says that the club tried to acquire Cleveland infielder Jose Ramirez and Detroit outfielder Robbie Grossman at the trade deadline.

This comment came within the context of a discussion he had with general manager Ross Atkins about the lack of diversity in the Blue Jays’ lineup this season. Atkins stated that the righty-heavy lineup was better when left-handed hitters Cavan Biggio and Corey Dickerson were present. “It’s not just that they’re left-handed, but how we are attacked and potentially the pitchers that are used is different,” Atkins said. “Secondarily, we feel it’s important to have balance and not just the same type of hitters up and down your lineup. So some players that are more batting average driven and some players that are more on-base driven with plate discipline. Having both is exceptionally powerful.”

In the end, the Blue Jays only added pitching at the deadline, with Jose Berrios being the headline move. In the season’s final months, the club finished strong and ended up 91-71, just one game away behind the eventual Wild Card participants, the Red Sox and Yankees.

Ramirez and Grossman are both excellent hitters, making it hardly surprising that Toronto, or any club, would be interested in their services. Both certainly would have helped with the righty-heavy situation, as they are both switch hitters. Grossman is usually better as a righty but still above-average from the left side. For his career, his slash line as a righty is .273/.367/.409, wRC+ of 116, whereas the lefty line is .241/.346/.378, wRC+ of 102. This year, his production as a lefty was slightly better, coming in at 105 in terms of wRC+. But his production as a righty was significantly better, coming in at 135 by the same measure. Ramirez, however, is equally excellent from both sides. His career line as a righty is .292/.351/.500 for a wRC+ of 125. As a lefty in his career, he’s hit .272/.356/.502 for a wRC+ of 127. This year, his wRC+ was 139 as a lefty and 135 as a righty.

It is perhaps worth nothing that both players are still controlled by their respective clubs, making it possible that whatever trade scenarios were discussed could be revisited in the offseason, especially considering that the Jays are losing the aforementioned Dickerson to free agency, weakening their already-thin pool of lefty bats. Grossman and the Tigers agreed to a two-year deal before this season, leaving one year remaining at a salary of $5MM. The Tigers have been rebuilding in recent years, making it somewhat logical that they would consider parting with a veteran player who is approaching free agency. But on the other hand, after an awful showing in April, they went 69-66 over the season’s final months and could be looking to add rather than subtract this offseason. And the Jays aren’t especially desperate for outfield help, given they have George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk on hand.

Ramirez, for his part, is controlled through for two more seasons via a pair of club options as part of the extension he signed prior to the 2017 season. The $11MM and $13MM salaries for 2022 and 2023 are both absolute bargains for a player of his caliber, meaning they’re guaranteed to be picked up. However, that also means it will be difficult to pry him loose from Cleveland, even if it’s unclear how aggressive the team plans to be this winter. They finished the season with a lackluster 80-82 record, meaning there could be an argument for selling. But on the other hand, they suffered a large number of injuries to key players, especially in their rotation, and could expect better results in 2022. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they also had an opening day payroll of under $50MM this season, lower than it’s been in a decade, meaning there shouldn’t be too much desire to strip it down even further. As much as he would slot nicely into a Toronto lineup that has Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal as its best third base options, it should take a tremendous trade package to make it happen.

The Blue Jays, for their part, should be able to take on some salary. When asked if the payroll could increase from this year’s $140MM range, Atkins tells Davidi, “That is our desire and that is our understanding.” That wouldn’t be unprecedented for the Toronto club, as their budget was over $160MM in both 2017 and 2018, before dipping as their recent rebuild picked up steam. Now that they’ve returned to contention over the past two seasons, it stands to reason that they would return to that level, if not surpass it. They only have about $65MM committed to next year, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, though that’s before accounting for arbitration raises for players like Berrios, Hernández and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet that the Jays are looking to add to the infield and rotation, which makes sense given they are losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien to free agency in a few weeks. As to whether they have the cash to pull it off, Atkins told Davidi that the Jays could give out a “very significant deal with a lot of term to it, maybe more than one,” but also tried to tamp down expectations by saying that teams “need to have that five- and six-year understanding for what that means for the team and the organization.”

Blue Jays Release Jake Lamb

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The Blue Jays announced that utilityman Jake Lamb has cleared release waivers. He’s now a free agent. Lamb had been designated for assignment last week, a move that created a vacancy on the 40-man roster filled today when the club selected reliever Jacob Barnes back to the major leagues.

Lamb split the 2021 campaign between the White Sox and Jays. He tallied 170 plate appearances between the two clubs, hitting .194/.306/.368 with seven home runs. The left-handed hitter continued his longstanding history of drawing plenty of walks and he offered a bit of power, but Lamb also fanned in a career-worst 30% of his trips to the dish. He’ll hit the open market and look for an opportunity elsewhere for next season, although it’s possible he’s limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations given his struggles over the past few years.

Barnes returns to the majors after being designated for assignment in July. The right-hander opened the year with the Mets but was traded to Toronto in June. He didn’t find much success with either club, tossing a combined 27 2/3 frames of 6.18 ERA ball. Barnes has been far better since accepting an outright to Triple-A Buffalo, though. He’s allowed just one run in 14 1/3 innings with the Bisons, posting a massive 60.5% ground-ball rate in the minors.

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