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Brewers Trade Freddy Peralta To Mets

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The Mets make another splash, acquiring All-Star starter Freddy Peralta and swingman Tobias Myers from the Brewers for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. The teams announced the blockbuster trade on Wednesday night. New York designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment in a corresponding move.

After losing out on Kyle Tucker, the Mets have signed Bo Bichette and traded for Luis Robert Jr. and Peralta. Tonight’s move is arguably the biggest of the three, as Peralta gives them a legitimate #1 starter atop what had been a talented but volatile rotation. He’s coming off a career season that landed him fifth in NL Cy Young balloting.

Peralta set a career mark with 176 2/3 innings while managing a personal-best 2.70 earned run average. He punched out 28.2% of opponents behind a near-13% swinging strike rate while issuing walks at a 9.1% clip. Peralta’s underlying marks have been consistently strong over his five seasons as a full-time starter. He misses bats at a plus rate with solid command. He had been a little susceptible to the longball between 2023-24, which elevated his ERA slightly (3.77) over that span. A dip in homer rate was the biggest factor in last year’s results, but estimators like FIP and SIERA feel he has been more or less the same pitcher five years running.

The 6’0″ righty challenges hitters with his fastball, a 94-95 MPH offering that plays up because of its plus spin and life. He backs that up with a changeup that he’ll throw to hitters of either handedness and a pair of breaking balls (though he only uses his slider against righties). His willingness to attack hitters up in the zone with the fastball leads to a fly-ball approach and the occasional home run, but it’s a worthwhile tradeoff for the few baserunners he’ll allow. Opposing hitters have mustered a .210/.288/.367 batting line over the past three seasons.

Peralta also brings an excellent durability track record to stabilize a rotation that was light on established innings sources. He hasn’t required a single stint on the injured list in three years. He’s tied for fifth with 95 starts and ranks 15th with 516 innings over that stretch. Only Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler have more strikeouts in that time. Peralta and Cease are the only pitchers to record 200+ strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. He battled some shoulder issues in 2021-22, including a lat strain that limited him to 18 appearances four years ago, but his recent health record has been clean.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Peralta well from his time running baseball operations with Milwaukee. He’s probably the best starting pitcher who’ll get traded this offseason, so the Mets would surely have been involved even without that connection, but the familiarity only made him a more natural fit. Stearns also brought back closer Devin Williams on a three-year free agent contract as his biggest bullpen move of the winter.

The Stearns-led front office wisely locked Peralta up on an extension before his breakout. Peralta had been an unheralded amateur signee by the Mariners whom the Brewers acquired as one of three prospects in an Adam Lind trade when he was in rookie ball. He worked in a swing role with mixed results over his first two seasons. Milwaukee secured him on a $15.5MM guarantee with a pair of $8MM club options over the 2019-20 offseason. It almost immediately became one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts.

Peralta is headed into the final season of that deal and playing on the second of those $8MM options. The Mets will happily pick up that salary and the associated $8.8MM luxury tax hit. RosterResource projects them for a $365MM competitive balance tax payroll. They ended last season with $347MM in CBT commitments and paid another $91.6MM in taxes.

This is much more affordable from a salary perspective than were the Bichette and Robert acquisitions, though the pitcher is less than a year from a monster payday of his own. He’s on track to hit free agency before his age-31 season and could command the second-largest contract in the class after Tarik Skubal. He’s a lock to reject a qualifying offer barring a major injury. The Mets would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in ’27 if he walks. As a revenue sharing recipient, Milwaukee would’ve gotten a pick after the first round had they kept him (assuming he signed elsewhere for $50MM+).

The Mets will presumably make an effort to keep him long term, but the main focus is on 2026. Peralta slots ahead of touted rookie Nolan McLean at the top of the staff. Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Kodai Senga are also penciled into what could be a six-man rotation — though the latter two have come up in trade rumors this offseason. Jonah Tong didn’t dominate the way McLean did after a late-season promotion, but he’s a top prospect who’ll be in the mix. They’re getting another touted arm, Christian Scott, back from elbow surgery.

Myers projects for a swing role but is likely to make some starts over the course of a 162-game season as well. The 27-year-old righty is more than a throw-in addition, as he has pitched well for Milwaukee over the past two years. Myers held a rotation spot for the majority of the ’24 season. He started 25 of 27 games as a rookie and posted an even 3.00 earned run average through 138 innings. He recorded a solid 22.3% strikeout rate while limiting his walks to a 6.3% clip.

An oblique strain sidelined Myers to open last season. The Brewers activated him in late April but optioned him to Triple-A after a handful of shaky appearances. Myers was up and down in a swing role for the remainder of the season. He was mostly squeezed out of the rotation by Milwaukee’s bigger arms, but he pitched well in the second half and finished the year with a 3.55 ERA across 50 2/3 frames. He had similar numbers over 12 starts with Triple-A Nashville.

Myers works in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball. He uses a cutter and slider as his breaking balls and tweaked his changeup to more of a splitter midway through last season. The pitch got good results in a small sample, as opponents hit .108 while swinging through it almost 40% of the time. That should give him a better offering against left-handed hitters after he struggled with southpaws as a rookie.

The righty has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration for another two seasons and is under club control through 2030. He has a minor league option remaining, which gives the Mets flexibility to move him between MLB and Triple-A Syracuse.

The Brewers deserve credit for helping Myers develop into a serviceable back-end starter. He’d once been a reasonably well-regarded prospect — Cleveland regrettably traded Junior Caminero to the Rays for him when the slugging infielder was in rookie ball — but he’d seemingly hit a wall in the upper minors. Milwaukee added him as a minor league free agent over the 2022-23 offseason, and he’s now a secondary but meaningful part of a trade that netted them a pair of top prospects.

Williams and Sproat each placed on the back half of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, which was released this morning. BA had Williams as the slightly more highly regarded of the two, but they’re essentially within the same tier. Williams is a right-handed hitter whom the Mets took in the first round out of a Dallas-area high school in 2022. He’s on the shorter side at 5’7″ but has plus athleticism and an up-the-middle defensive profile. Scouts credit him with plus speed and a strong arm with more power than one might expect based on his size.

That athleticism was on display in the upper minors. Williams combined for 17 homers and 34 stolen bases while hitting .261/.363/.465 across 572 plate appearances. He looked no worse for wear after a right wrist surgery had cost him a good chunk of the ’24 season. Williams raked at a .281/.390/.477 clip in Double-A. He struggled after a second half promotion to Triple-A, where he hit .209 with a .285 on-base percentage across 34 games. That’s not a huge concern for a 21-year-old who would have been young for the level even if he’d spent the entire season in Double-A.

Williams is a patient hitter who has worked a lot of walks in the minors. Although big league pitchers will be better positioned to attack the smaller strike zone, he has the makings of a potential top-of-the-lineup spark plug. Williams has played mostly shortstop and has experience at second base and in center field. He’s likely to begin the season at Triple-A Nashville and could challenge Joey Ortiz or Garrett Mitchell/Blake Perkins for playing time midway through the season.

Sproat, 25, is a big league ready rotation option. A second-round pick out of the University of Florida in 2023, he debuted as a September call-up. The 6’3″ righty made four starts, giving up 11 runs across 20 2/3 innings. Sproat otherwise spent the season in Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.24 ERA across 121 frames. He fanned 22.1% of opponents while issuing walks at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip. He has a six-pitch mix and works in the 96-97 MPH range on his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Baseball America’s scouting report credits Sproat with a plus changeup and slider. They write that he has the upside of an average or better starter, albeit with some relief risk based on his average control. He’s not as highly-regarded as McLean or Tong, but it’s not surprising the Mets weren’t willing to part with either of those prospects for a rental. McLean seems categorically untouchable. Michael Marino reported that Milwaukee had tried to involve Tong in discussions on Peralta but were quickly rebuffed. They then turned to a Williams/Sproat framework. It seems they needed to part with Myers to push the deal over the top.

Milwaukee wasn’t going to move Peralta without landing a strong prospect return. His salary was affordable enough that they didn’t need to trade him for salary relief. They certainly weren’t going to re-sign him, though, and it’s their usual operating procedure to hear clubs out on veteran stars who are approaching free agency. It doesn’t make a trade inevitable — they held Willy Adames and let him walk for a compensatory draft pick — but Peralta joins Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Williams as recent stars traded within a year or two of reaching the open market.

The Brewers never go into a full rebuild. They’re coming off a 97-win season and advanced to the NLCS. They’ll expect to compete for a fourth consecutive NL Central title. Milwaukee won the division in ’24 after the Burnes trade, which was the most direct parallel for their decision on Peralta. They also landed two prospects in that deal, Ortiz and left-hander DL Hall, who were borderline Top 100 talents who were at the MLB level. Williams and Sproat are probably a little more highly-regarded than the players they got in the Burnes trade, though their deal with Baltimore also included a competitive balance draft pick and didn’t involve the secondary piece in Myers.

Brandon Woodruff will slot atop the rotation after accepting the qualifying offer. Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser and Sproat could all battle for jobs. The Brewers haven’t closed the door on giving Angel Zerpa or Aaron Ashby rotation looks, though they’re each likelier to end up in relief. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold acknowledged that getting Woodruff back made them more comfortable parting with Peralta (relayed by Curt Hogg of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

There’s a lot of upside with this group, but they’ll probably need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency for a back-end arm to provide innings. RosterResource projects their payroll around $126MM, roughly $11MM north of where they began the ’25 season. They should nevertheless be able to sign a starter for a few million dollars as Spring Training approaches. They wouldn’t have issued the QO to Woodruff if ownership weren’t willing to approve at least a slight payroll bump.

Milwaukee fans are familiar with the churn, but it’s surely a blow to lose another homegrown star and fan favorite. Peralta was third in franchise history in strikeouts and eighth in wins. He’s a two-time All-Star who has been a part of seven playoff teams over the past eight years. He’s out of the division but anchoring the rotation for what looks to be one of their top competitors in the National League.

Michael Marino first reported that the Brewers and Mets were discussing Peralta for Williams and Sproat. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated indicated talks were accelerating, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the agreement. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported Myers’ inclusion. Respective images courtesy of Benny Sieu, Michael McLoone, Sam Navarro and Brad Penner — Imagn Images.

MLBTR Podcast: What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The overlapping stories at the top of the market and what they might mean: The Dodgers agreed to a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets gave Tucker a similar offer but then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette. Tucker had a long-term offer from the Blue Jays and Bichette from the Phillies but both went for the short-term deals. Is this some kind of paradigm shift or just unique circumstances? (1:50)
  • Could we ever predict this type of pivot in our Top 50 post in future years? (17:25)
  • How these deals impact parity, the upcoming expected lockout, collective bargaining agreement, etc. (34:35)
  • Bichette’s fit in the Mets’ position player mix (recorded prior to the Luis Robert Jr. trade) (1:04:25)
  • The Cardinals trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks (1:15:25)
  • The Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez (1:26:55)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
  • Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
  • Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Mets Designate Cooper Criswell For Assignment

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The Mets announced they’ve designated right-hander Cooper Criswell for assignment. They needed to clear a spot on the 40-man roster after tonight’s two-for-two trade because Jett Williams had not been on the roster.

Criswell has been a DFA casualty following a big trade twice this offseason. The Red Sox squeezed him out after the Jhostynxon Garcia/Johan Oviedo deal. The Mets grabbed him off waivers a day later but will now need to trade or waive him themselves. Criswell and the Red Sox had worked out an $800K contract early in the offseason.

While the righty locked in a fully guaranteed salary a little above the MLB minimum, that also pointed to a likely offseason DFA. It has become increasingly common for teams to work out slightly above minimum deals with players whom they’re considering dropping from the 40-man roster. The salary could serve as a minor deterrent for another team to place a waiver claim.

Perhaps more importantly, it gives the player incentive to accept a minor league assignment if they clear. The 29-year-old Criswell was outrighted by the Rays during the 2022 season. That gives him the right to decline future outrights in his career. It’s less likely that he’d walk away from guaranteed money, so the Mets could stash him in Triple-A if no other team places a claim.

Criswell had a decent season in a swing role in 2024. He logged a career-high 99 1/3 innings with a 4.08 earned run average. He doesn’t have huge velocity or swing-and-miss potential, but he threw strikes and got a decent number of ground-balls. He didn’t get nearly as much big league work last season. Criswell logged 17 2/3 frames with a 3.57 ERA over seven appearances. He spent the rest of the season at Triple-A Worcester, pitching to a 3.70 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate across 65 2/3 frames.

Mets, Brewers In Conversations About Freddy Peralta

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The Mets and Brewers are in discussions about star right-hander Freddy Peralta, according to reports from Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated and Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There’s no deal in place, but The Post’s Joel Sherman characterizes talks as “serious.” Ragazzo adds that middle infield/center field prospect Jett Williams has come up in conversations.

This morning, Michael Marino reported that Milwaukee was looking to acquire Williams and rookie right-hander Brandon Sproat in a Peralta deal. According to Marino, the Mets rebuffed earlier interest from the Brew Crew in top pitching prospect Jonah Tong. Meanwhile, Sherman adds that swingman Tobias Myers would likely head from Milwaukee to Queens if a deal gets across the finish line.

Peralta has been a top target for teams in need of rotation help. He’s coming off a fifth place Cy Young finish behind 176 2/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball. The Mets have been in the rotation market all offseason but haven’t been keen on making long-term free agent commitments. President of baseball operations David Stearns reiterated this morning that he still hoped to add a starter (link via Jorge Castillo of ESPN).

Mets Designate Tsung-Che Cheng For Assignment

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The Mets announced today that infielder Tsung-Che Cheng has been designated for assignment. That is the corresponding move to open a 40-man spot for right-hander Luis García, whose signing is now official.

Cheng, 24, has never played for the Mets. He has only ever played in the Pirates’ system but he has been making the transactional rounds this offseason. Pittsburgh designated him for assignment in December. He went to the Rays and then the Mets via waivers.

His major league track record is quite limited so far. He made seven plate appearances with the Pirates last year. He struck out three times and was only able to reach base once, which was due to an error.

The minor league work offers more encouragement and an explanation as to why so many teams have shown interest this offseason. He has extensive experience at the two middle infield positions and has played a decent amount of third base as well, with strong reviews for his glovework on the whole.

His offense has been less consistent. In 2023, splitting his time between High-A and Double-A, he had a 9.7% walk rate, 18.7% strikeout rate, .278/.352/.456 line and 116 wRC+. But over the past two seasons, he has a combined .217/.319/.312 line and a wRC+ of 81.

Cheng is still fairly young and has an option remaining. His ability to cover shortstop makes him an intriguing depth piece, even if his offense stays a bit light. Any kind of step forward with the bat is a potential bonus.

It might seem odd for a team to claim a player and then quickly cut him but this kind of sequence is becoming more common. The team is usually hoping the player clears waivers the next time, so that he can be kept without using a roster spot. The Mets themselves already did this once this winter, claiming Ji Hwan Bae and later outrighting him to the minors. Cheng doesn’t have a previous career outright nor does he have three years of service time, so he wouldn’t have the right to elect free agency if he were outrighted.

With Cheng, they will have a week of DFA limbo to work with. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so they could hold him for five days and field trade interest. They could also put him on the wire sooner than that if they so choose.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Mets Sign Luis García

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3:55pm: The Mets have now officially announced the Garcia signing. Infielder Tsung-Che Cheng was designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

2:40pm: García has passed his physical, MLBTR has learned.

1:02pm: The Mets and veteran right-handed reliever Luis García are in agreement on a contract, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s a one-year, $1.75MM major league deal that can be worth up to $3MM after incentives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is pending a physical. García is represented by agents Larry Reynolds, Rosie-Lopez Herrera and Noah Herrera.

García, 39 next week, is a veteran of 13 big league seasons who’s pitched for eight clubs to this point in his career. He sports a lifetime 4.07 earned run average but has pitched better than that in the latter stages of his career; dating back to 2021, he carries a 3.86 ERA with even better marks from metrics like SIERA (3.55) and FIP (3.45). García split the 2025 season between the Dodgers, Nationals and Angels, combining for a 3.42 ERA. His strikeout rate (20.6%) and walk rate (11.2%) were both worse than average, but he induced grounders at a strong 49.7% clip and averaged just under 97 mph on his sinker.

While García almost certainly won’t sustain a minuscule 0.33 HR/9 mark and 4.7% homer-to-flyball ratio moving forward, there’s a good chance he can improve on last year’s command. He entered the 2025 season with a 7.8% walk rate across the four prior seasons, making last year’s 11.2% clip somewhat uncharacteristic. García’s roughly average swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates would support a modest bump in strikeouts as well, though he’s now turned in a below-average strikeout rate in three consecutive seasons.

The Mets have now added three free agent relievers to the bullpen this winter, although García’s contract is obviously on a much smaller scale than those of presumptive closer Devin Williams (three years, $51MM) and top setup man Luke Weaver (two years, $22MM). García will slot into the middle-relief mix and figures to work lower-leverage situations than Williams, Weaver, A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley, although with 17 career saves and 117 holds, he’s no stranger to high-pressure settings.

With the Mets already in the top tier of luxury penalization, García’s $1.75MM base salary will actually cost the team $3.675MM. The additional $1.25MM worth of incentives, if unlocked in full, would cost the club a total of $2.625MM. Of course, if he maxes out his incentive package, it’ll likely because he’s pitched well enough to make the end-of-day $6.3MM price point well worth the cost.

Poll: Have The Mets Done Enough To Retool Their Lineup?

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Last night, the Mets officially announced their recent deal with star infielder Bo Bichette and swung a trade for former All-Star Luis Robert Jr. to patrol center field for the team this year. Those moves are the latest in what’s turned into a major overhaul of the Mets’ offense coming off a disappointing 83-win campaign that saw them miss the playoffs in Juan Soto’s first season under club control. Franchise stalwarts Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil departed the club and a group of new faces have been brought in. It’s a bold decision by president of baseball operations David Stearns to overhaul the offense so dramatically when the team’s 112 wRC+ was good for fifth-best in the majors last season.

The club also missed out on Kyle Tucker and haven’t yet managed to secure a front-of-the-rotation arm. Those developments have left some fans frustrated with the team headed into 2026. Spring Training is now less than a month away. While it’s certainly not impossible to make additional moves to round out the roster, there’s a chance the biggest moves are now done. If the collection of position players the Mets have now is what they’ll enter the 2026 campaign with, how does it compare to the group they put forward last year?

Both lineups will have the one-two punch of Francisco Lindor at shortstop and Soto in right field to kick things off. Things start to get significantly different from there, though. Alonso’s 141 wRC+ is difficult to replace, and no player the Mets have added so far figures to put up a gaudy number like that this year. Bichette (134 wRC+) and Jorge Polanco (132 wRC+) have both come into the mix on the heels of strong seasons in their own rights, however, and both figure to serve as legitimate middle-of-the-order threats for the Mets this season. Neither Bichette nor Polanco figure to provide the power that Alonso offered, as he swatted 38 long balls this year. Bichette has never hit even 30 homers in his career, and Polanco last did so in 2021.

As tough as the loss of Alonso is, however, it can certainly be argued at the team’s additions lengthen the lineup overall. While neither Bichette or Polanco offers quite the same offensive impact as Alonso, both were fair superior to Brandon Nimmo (115 wRC+) and Jeff McNeil (111 wRC+) last season. Marcus Semien (89 wRC+) and Robert (84 wRC+) weren’t at that level, but both are coming off injury-marred campaigns in 2025 and could see their numbers tick back up towards league average with better health. In the case of Robert, however, even a repeat of last year would be a substantial improvement for the Mets relative to what they got out of center field last year. The team’s center fielders (primarily Tyrone Taylor and Cedric Mullins) combined for a wRC+ of 71 with just 0.7 fWAR. That makes Robert a likely upgrade even if he can’t get close to the All-Star form he flashed back in 2023, when he posted a 129 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 145 games.

Health for both Semien and Robert figures to be key to a successful Mets lineup this year, but perhaps the biggest wild card is how the team’s young talent will perform. All indications suggest that, if another move isn’t made, top outfield prospect Carson Benge will get a clear shot at regular playing time for the Mets in the outfield. Meanwhile, Brett Baty will be looking to build on a successful 2025 season while likely spending time at first base and DH alongside Polanco, and Francisco Alvarez will try to replicate last season’s monster second half across the full year. Versatile prospect Jett Williams also figures to play a role for the team at some point this year, though when that will be (and where on the diamond he’ll wind up playing) remains to be seen.

Assuming a big trade like Jarren Duran isn’t coming down the pipeline to change the look of New York’s offense, how do MLBTR readers think the Mets’ lineup will fare in 2026? Will they be able to match last season’s production? Could they exceed it? Or will they come up short and be a less productive offense than the one Alonso helped lead last year? Have your say in the poll below:

Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers officially announced their four-year, $240MM contract with Kyle Tucker on Wednesday afternoon. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. Outfielder Michael Siani was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Los Angeles will pay the first $54MM signing bonus next month. They’ll owe the remaining $10MM in February 2027, and the signing bonus is guaranteed even in the event of a work stoppage. Tucker will make a $1MM salary this year, followed by a $55MM salary in ’27 and $60MM annually for the final two years if he doesn’t opt out. The team is deferring $10MM annually in the final three years, which will be paid in installments between 2036-45.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details. The Associated Press had the salary breakdown and deferral specifics.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

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The long-awaited Luis Robert Jr. trade has arrived. The Mets announced they’ve acquired the former All-Star center fielder from the White Sox for young infielder/outfielder Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley. There’s no cash involved and no corresponding moves because Robert and Acuña were each on the 40-man roster.

This brings an end to what had been years of Robert trade rumors. The White Sox have held their center fielder through multiple rebuilding seasons. In retrospect, they surely wish they’d moved him over the 2023-24 offseason. Robert was coming off a career year and looked like a budding star entering the prime of his career. The past two seasons have been more challenging, as he has battled injuries and struggled while fielding questions about when he would be traded.

Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a $26MM bonus, the kind of hefty sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games.

While that year’s schedule would be shortened by the pandemic, Robert popped 11 homers and won a Gold Glove in center field. He placed second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Robert’s numbers jumped in year two, as he hit .338/.378/.567 across 296 plate appearances. A torn flexor tendon in his right hip cost him three months, however, and the blend of tantalizing talent and frustrating durability would be a recurring theme in his career.

Robert had a trio of injured list stints, albeit all for minor issues, the following season. He stayed healthy for almost all of the ’23 campaign and showed the star-level ceiling he possesses at full strength. Robert drilled 38 homers, 36 doubles and one triple across 595 plate appearances. He hit .264/.315/.542 to win a Silver Slugger Award. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his season around five wins above replacement after accounting for his excellent center field defense.

The White Sox nevertheless went 61-101 and were outscored by 200 runs. It was clear they were amidst a multi-year teardown, but they elected to hang onto Robert when they had four years of affordable contractual control. They could have netted multiple top prospects if they’d shopped him.

Robert’s production has tanked as the team has slogged through two more terrible seasons. He’s a .223/.288/.372 hitter in 856 plate appearances since the start of 2024. He has struck out at a near-30% rate while continuing to battle injuries. The right hip flared up early in the ’24 season and kept him out for two months. A pair of left hamstring strains were the culprit last summer, with the latter costing him all of September.

The physical tools remain encouraging. Robert is one of the fastest players in the league despite the various lower body injuries. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in bat speed, according to Statcast. He’s an aggressive hitter who is always going to have his share of strikeouts. Teams would happily live with a lower on-base percentage if he’s making the kind of power and defensive impact he did during his best days in Chicago.

It’s largely a change-of-scenery bet from the Mets’ perspective. Robert only turned 28 in August and hasn’t shown signs of physical decline. He has spent the past three seasons on one of the worst teams in MLB, fully aware that he’d be traded at some point. A new environment could help him get back on track, although the durability concerns will persist even if his numbers improve.

Robert will at least upgrade the defense and bring some upside on the bases. He has stolen 20+ bags in three straight seasons and went 33-41 in stolen base attempts last year. He should also bring some juice against left-handed pitching, as he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter with the platoon advantage. His production against southpaws tanked in 2024 but rebounded last season.

The biggest risk for the Mets is financial. They’re assuming the entirety of Robert’s $20MM salary and committing to a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2027 season. It’s not a small amount to spend on a player who hasn’t produced much over the past two years, and that’s before considering the tax implications.

The Mets pay a 110% tax on spending as a three-time repeat luxury tax payor whose CBT payroll is above $304MM. Robert is guaranteed $22MM for one season — the option buyout is guaranteed money — so they’re tagged with a $24.2MM tax hit. It’s a $46.2MM commitment overall, albeit one that comes with the upside of what could be a bargain option in ’27 if Robert hits his ceiling. RosterResource calculate their CBT number around $357MM, putting them on track to exceed last year’s season-ending $347MM mark — which required a $91.6MM tax payment. There’s a good chance they’ll have a tax bill north of $100MM by the end of the ’26 season.

They’ve taken on $64MM in AAV commitments for the 2026 season between the Robert trade and Bo Bichette signing over the past five days. The Mets haven’t wanted to lock themselves into lengthy deals one offseason after the Juan Soto signing. They’ve compensated with significant short-term investments to chase upside. Robert should be the everyday center fielder as long as he’s healthy. That’d push Tyrone Taylor either into a fourth outfield role or as a stopgap in left field if prospects Carson Benge and Jett Williams open the season in Triple-A. It seems likely to take them out of the running on Cody Bellinger, the top unsigned position player.

Although the White Sox missed their opportunity to trade Robert at the apex of his value, they deserve some credit for exercising this year’s option rather than cutting him loose for nothing in free agency. That at least netted them an intriguing depth piece in Acuña, who felt superfluous on the Mets but is a fine target for a rebuilding team.

The younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel is a former Rangers signee whom the Mets acquired in the 2023 Max Scherzer deadline deal. His bloodlines and previous inclusion in one marquee trade have made him a more well-known prospect than his production probably warrants, but he’s not yet 24 and provides some multi-positional utility for skipper Will Venable.

Acuña signed as a shortstop and has the arm strength to profile on the left side of the infield. There weren’t many shortstop reps available on a team with Francisco Lindor, leading the Mets to bounce him around in a utility capacity. Acuña has plus-plus speed and could be an option in center field as well. He’s splitting his time between shortstop and center field in the Venezuelan winter league, but the majority of his MLB experience has come as a second baseman.

The White Sox shouldn’t have any issue getting Acuña in the lineup even if he’s not expected to push Colson Montgomery off shortstop. He could step into the everyday center field role vacated by the Robert trade or push for second/third base playing time alongside Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa.

The question is whether Acuña will bring enough to the table offensively to warrant playing time once the Sox are better positioned to contend. He’s a .248/.299/.341 hitter in his first 233 MLB plate appearances. Acuña has had a similarly light bat against Triple-A pitching. The right-handed hitter owns a .265/.307/.360 line in more than 700 trips to the plate at the top minor league level. Acuña has solid contact skills but puts a lot of balls on the ground without big exit velocities. He’s a slash-and-dash type hitter whose best current ability is as a runner, where he went 16-17 in stolen base tries over 95 MLB games last year.

Acuña is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will need to keep him on the MLB roster. They wouldn’t have traded Robert for him if they didn’t intend to do so. The lack of roster flexibility was a much bigger hangup for the Mets, who also cannot option Mark Vientos and are unlikely to send Brett Baty back to Triple-A. They knew they’d lose Acuña on waivers but weren’t positioned to offer him the playing time to take a step forward offensively. Chicago can control him through the 2031 season, as Acuña has yet to reach a year of MLB service.

The White Sox also add a low minors arm in Pauley, a 6’2″ righty whom the Mets took in the 12th round of last year’s draft. The Harvard product received an above-slot $400K signing bonus. Baseball America ranked him the #435 prospect in the draft, writing in June that teams like the riding life on his mid-90s fastball and plus spin rates on his breaking ball. Pauley walked more than 15% of opponents with a 4.61 ERA in his draft year. His command will need to take a significant leap if he’s to get to the majors, even as a reliever, but the Sox’s player development team is clearly intrigued by his raw stuff.

From a payroll standpoint, dealing Robert drops Chicago’s projected spending to $67MM. They opened last season around $81MM, so this could free them up for a late-offseason depth addition or two. The Sox could bring in a veteran middle reliever and/or a fourth outfielder whom they’d try to flip for another lottery ticket prospect in the Pauley mold at the deadline.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade terms. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were assuming the full salary. Respective images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Jay Biggerstaff of Imagn Images.

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones Elected To Hall Of Fame

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have been elected to the Hall of Fame. They’ll be inducted into Cooperstown alongside Jeff Kent, who was elected by the Era Committee, on July 26. Beltrán appeared on 84.2% of ballots, while Jones got to a 78.4% vote share.

Beltrán gets the honor in his fourth year. The switch-hitting outfielder was the only player who fell between 70% and 75% on last year’s ballot. His positive trend lines made it a near lock that he’d surpass the 75% threshold this winter.

The Royals drafted Beltrán, a native of Puerto Rico, in the second round in 1995. He reached the big leagues as a September call-up three years later and ranked as one of the sport’s top prospects going into his first full season in 1999. Scouting reports projected him as a potential five-tool center fielder, and Beltrán lived up to that billing immediately.

He hit .293/.337/.454 with 22 homers and 27 stolen bases during his debut campaign. Beltrán was the runaway choice for American League Rookie of the Year, the first of many accolades he’d accrue over the next two decades. Injuries and a sophomore slump limited his playing time in 2000, but Beltrán reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best outfielders the following year. He’d hit above .300 in two of the next three seasons, earning his first top 10 MVP finish behind a .307/.389/.522 showing in 2003.

The roster around Beltrán was not nearly as strong. A small-market Kansas City franchise was unlikely to re-sign him, making him a top trade chip as he entered his final season of club control. The Royals dealt Beltrán, a first-time All-Star, to the Astros midway through the ’04 season. He appeared on the National League roster — Houston was then an NL team — and finished 12th in MVP balloting despite spending the first three months in the American League. Beltrán hit .258/.368/.559 with 23 homers in 90 regular season games for Houston.

His introduction to the postseason couldn’t have gone any better. Beltrán batted .435 with eight homers in 12 playoff games, helping Houston to within one game of a trip to the World Series. The Astros would go on to win the pennant one year later, but Beltrán had moved on in free agency by that point. He signed what was then a franchise-record deal with the Mets: seven years and $119MM.

Beltrán’s first season in Queens was a bit of a disappointment, but he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2006. He hit a career-best 41 home runs and drove in a personal-high 116 runs with a .275/.388/.594 slash line. Beltrán won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards while finishing fourth in MVP voting. Baseball Reference credited him with eight wins above replacement, the best mark of his career. He remained a force into the playoffs, batting .278 with a .422 on-base percentage over 10 games.

For the second time in three years, Beltrán’s team lost the seventh game of an NLCS battle with the Cardinals. The ’07 Mets famously melted down in September to squander the NL East title to the Phillies. They wouldn’t return to the playoffs during Beltrán’s tenure, yet there’s no doubt they got their money’s worth from the free agent investment. Beltrán played in 839 games while hitting .280/.369/.500 with 149 homers over six and a half seasons in a Mets uniform.

The club also netted a top pitching prospect named Zack Wheeler when they traded the impending free agent to the Giants in 2011. He raked down the stretch with San Francisco, but they narrowly missed the postseason between their World Series wins in 2010 and ’12. Beltrán signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals the following year. He hit .282/.343/.493 over his time in St. Louis, but his impact again was brightest in the postseason. Beltrán was a stellar playoff performer in both years.

Beltrán signed a three-year contract with the Yankees over the 2013-14 offseason. He remained an above-average hitter over his time in the Bronx, albeit without the defensive value he’d had for the majority of his career. He made it back to the playoffs in 2016 after being dealt to the Rangers at the deadline. Beltrán finished his career on a one-year contract to return to the Astros.

The final season in Houston wound up leaving Beltrán with a complicated legacy. He was an integral part of the team’s sign-stealing operation that wasn’t publicly revealed until a few seasons thereafter. Beltrán wasn’t much of an on-field contributor at age 40, but he collected his first World Series ring when the Astros won their first title in franchise history.

Beltrán’s role in the sign-stealing scandal became public over the 2019-20 offseason. He had just been hired by the Mets as manager a few months earlier. He stepped down and forfeited his salary once the operation became public. Beltrán has remained involved in the game in less prominent roles, working as a television analyst with the YES Network and spending the past few seasons as a special assistant in the Mets’ front office. He’s also in charge of building the roster for the Puerto Rican national team at the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

The sign-stealing scandal probably delayed Beltrán’s entry to Cooperstown. His statistical résumé made him a very strong candidate to get in on the first ballot. He finished his playing days with a .279/.350/.486 batting line. He hit 435 home runs, stole 312 bases, and drove in nearly 1600. Baseball Reference valued his career at 70 WAR, which doesn’t even account for his playoff excellence. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric has him as a top 10 center fielder of all time. Whatever trepidation some voters may have had about honoring him within the first couple years on the ballot, the end result is that he’s headed to Cooperstown to cement his legacy as one of the best center fielders to play the game.

That’s also the case for Jones, who ranks 11th among center fielders by the same JAWS calculation. He gets in on his ninth year on the ballot, one season after receiving 66% of the vote. A native of Curacao, Jones signed with the Braves as an international amateur and flew through the minor leagues. He was the #1 prospect in the game when he reached the majors in the second half of the 1996 season. Jones stepped seamlessly onto a loaded Atlanta roster that was midway through their run of dominance in the National League. They were coming off a championship and would head back to the Fall Classic in ’96.

A 19-year-old Jones embraced the big stage, hitting .345 with a trio of home runs in October. That included a two-homer showing in Game 1 against the Yankees, and he remains the youngest player ever to hit a World Series home run. The Braves won the first game but wound up dropping the series in six.

Jones played mostly right field during his first full season. He hit .231 with 18 homers in 153 games and finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He really took off the following year, kicking off a decade-long run as the sport’s best defensive outfielder and a premier power threat. Jones hit 31 homers while batting .271/.321/.515 and earning his first Gold Glove in 1998. That was his first of seven 30-homer campaigns and, more remarkably, the start of a streak of 10 consecutive Gold Glove awards.

He’d start all 162 games for the Braves in 1999, playing elite defense while batting .275/.365/.483 with 26 homers and 35 doubles. The Braves made it back to the World Series after losing the NLCS in the prior two seasons. They were again knocked off by the Yankees, this time in a sweep. Jones didn’t have great playoff numbers over that stretch but remained one of the league’s best players in the regular season. He hit 36 homers in a 2000 season which Baseball Reference valued at eight wins above replacement, a career high that ranked fourth in MLB among position players.

Jones earned an eighth-place MVP finish in 2000 and very likely would have finished higher had today’s defensive metrics been around at the time. He reeled off another three 30-plus homer seasons after that, narrowly dropping below that cutoff with a 29-homer showing in 2004. He rebounded with his most impressive offensive performance in ’05, as he slugged an MLB-best 51 longballs and led the National League with 128 runs batted in. Jones won a Silver Slugger for the first and only time and finished as the MVP runner-up behind Albert Pujols. It was a narrow split, as Pujols received 18 first-place votes against Jones’ 13. (Third-place finisher Derrek Lee received the other one.)

The righty hitter remained an impact run producer the following season, as he slugged 41 more home runs with a career-high 129 RBI. That was his last impact season, as his rate stats dropped in 2007. The Braves let him depart in free agency at season’s end, and he was essentially finished as an everyday player at age 31. Jones played parts of five more seasons between the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees. He didn’t record more than 64 hits in any of his final five campaigns.

While it was a precipitous decline, Jones had one of the more impressive peaks in baseball history. He hit 368 home runs with a .263/.342/.497 batting line between his debut and the end of his age-30 season. Retroactive defensive metrics come with significant error bars, but FanGraphs estimates he was roughly 134 runs better than an average defender during that stretch. That’s 25 runs clear of the second-place finisher at any position (Adrian Beltré) and certainly aligns with both his impressive accolades and scouting evaluations that consider him among the best outfield defenders in MLB history. Jones is one of six outfielders to win 10 Gold Gloves. He’s alongside Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline and Ichiro in that company and now, in Cooperstown.

Jones finished his career as a .254/.337/.486 hitter. His 434 homers place him one behind Beltrán for sixth among center fielders and tied with Juan González for 49th regardless of position. He nevertheless had a lengthy stay on the ballot as some voters struggled with his lack of production after he left Atlanta. Others may have withheld a vote on moral grounds, as Jones pleaded guilty to domestic battery charges and paid a fine after his wife alleged that he put his hands around her neck in December 2012. That came after the end of Jones’ MLB career, though he subsequently played two seasons in Japan to finish his professional playing days.

While Jones will certainly go into the Hall as a Brave, Beltrán had a nomadic enough career to consider a few options for his plaque. The Hall of Fame has final say but works with the player to choose which cap they’ll don. Beltrán tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that while no decision has been finalized, he’s likely to go into Cooperstown as a Met.

Looking further down the ballot, Chase Utley’s 59% vote share was the highest among the candidates who were not elected. That’s up 20 points relative to last winter. It puts Utley, who has been on the ballot for three years, on track for eventual enshrinement — with an outside chance that he gets in as soon as next year. No other candidate appeared on more than half the ballots.

Of this year’s first-time candidates, only Cole Hamels (23.8%) received more than the 5% necessary to remain under consideration. All but one player who fell off the ballot was up for consideration for the first time. The lone exception is Manny Ramírez, who drops off after coming up short in his 10th year. Ramírez’s history of performance-enhancing drug use (including a failed test) made him a non-starter for many voters, and he appeared on fewer than 40% of ballots in his final year. His only path to enshrinement is via the Era Committees, and their decision last month on Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens makes it difficult to see a scenario where Ramírez ever gets in.

Next year will be the final consideration for Omar Vizquel, who has no chance of jumping from 18% to induction. Buster Posey and Jon Lester headline a class of first-time candidates that’ll also include Ryan Zimmerman, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner and Jake Arrieta. Posey seems likely to get serious consideration for first-ballot induction, while Lester should easily have enough support to get more than 5% and remain on the ballot for future seasons.

Full voter breakdown courtesy of BBWAA. Respective images via USA Today Sports.

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