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MLBTR Poll: Can The A’s Replace Ramon Laureano?

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The Oakland A’s were a popular pick to regress this season after winning the AL West with a .600 win percentage during the truncated 2020 season. The presumption of the A’s decline was fueled by the departures of impact players in free agency: namely, Marcus Semien to Toronto, Tommy La Stella to San Francisco, Liam Hendriks to Chicago, and Robbie Grossman to Detroit.

Those were notable losses, but lackluster replacements spoke more to the overall skepticism surrounding the team: Elvis Andrus and an aged Jed Lowrie in the infield, Mitch Moreland taking many of the at-bats in the designated hitter spot that went to Grossman (with holders Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, or Stephen Piscotty taking his spot in the field), and Trevor Rosenthal signed to assume the closer’s role.

Of course, the details of the “Moneyball” model that made the A’s front office famous has changed over the years, but one thing that hasn’t is their non-linear approach to roster creation. Replacing Semien, La Stella, Hendriks, and Grossman wasn’t a casting problem. If it were, the collective 0.6 rWAR accrued by their replacements would be enough to tank this roster.

Instead, the A’s are outperforming their projections with a 62-48 record, which carries a 57.4% chance of making the playoffs. They’re just three games behind the Astros for the division lead, 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees for the second wild card spot.

It seems like every year now that the A’s simply find a way. They were left for dead mid-way through last season, too, when star Matt Chapman was lost for the year. When they chose to replace him with scrapheap pickup Jake Lamb and platoon-players like Chad Pinder and Vimael Machin, it seemed that the A’s were doomed for a second-half skid.

Not so. Despite posting nearly identical win percentages the two seasons prior (.599 in both 2018 and 2019, 97-win seasons), 2020 marked Oakland’s first division title since 2012 and 2013. With the Ramon Laureano suspension now in effect, can the A’s yet again survive the loss of a key two-way position player?

Obviously, the acquisition of Starling Marte at the deadline looks even better now than it did a week ago. He certainly stands as a more significant replacement than Lamb from a year ago. And yet, bringing in Marte seemed like such a boon because he shored up a real weak spot in the lineup. That spot is back to being a question mark for the final two months of the season.

Marte can ably fill the void defensively. Despite Laureano’s flashy tools, there’s an argument to be made that an outfield of Mark Canha, Marte, and Seth Brown could be better defensively. Laureano’s -1 OAA comes in last behind Marte at +6 and Canha and Brown both at +4. DRS and UZR give Laureano more credit, but Marte ought to nevertheless mostly replace his glove.

With the bat, Brown and Stephen Piscotty are likely to step back in as a relatively straightforward platoon in right. Piscotty’s been below-average this season, but he’s better against lefties with a 98 wRC+. The same can be said for Brown going the other way with his 97 wRC+ against right-handers. Together that doesn’t exactly add up to Laureano’s 114 wRC+, but it helps close the gap.

Of course, replacing a player for the A’s always involved a bit of sleight of hand. Utility man Josh Harrison might be the answer to replacing Laureano, either by slotting directly into the outfield, or by taking time at second while Kemp moves to the grass. Harrison played his way back into relevance with a .291/.363/.431 line over 450 plate appearances with the Nationals the past two seasons. The upgrade from Aramis Garcia (54 wRC+) to Yan Gomes (104 wRC+) may also help pick up some of the slack — as might the addition of Andrew Chafin in the pen.

So how worried should A’s fans be? Will they have enough to hold off the onrushing Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners for a playoff spot? Can they catch the Astros? What say you of Oakland’s chances the rest of the way?

(poll link for app users)

(poll link for app users)

Examining A Potential Ke’Bryan Hayes Extension

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The Pirates made an extension offer to Ke’Bryan Hayes back in Spring Training, which obviously didn’t manifest in a deal, but Hayes himself confirmed to The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel this week that it wasn’t the team’s first effort. As Hayes explains, the Bucs also came to him with an offer before he’d even played in a big league game, during Spring Training 2020.

While the two sides still haven’t worked out a deal, Hayes made clear that he’s open to a long-term pact, wants to step up as a leader of future Pirates clubs and hopes to “win a championship with the team that drafted me.” For now, his focus is on a strong finish to the 2021 season.

Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out the column for full quotes from Hayes on his future with the club. But for the purposes of this post, let’s take a look at some historical context to see just where Hayes might slot in if he and the Bucs were to approach an extension in earnest. As always, service time is crucial to these explorations, and historical precedent is quite often relevant.

Hayes will finish the 2021 season with a year-plus of Major League service time. We haven’t seen a third baseman in that service class ink a long-term pact since Jedd Gyorko’s five-year, $35MM agreement with the Padres back in 2014. That seven-year-old deal probably won’t hold much weight as a comp — particularly since even with his recent slump, Hayes has been more productive now than Gyorko was at the time. At the time of Gyorko’s extension, he carried a .242/.295/.433 line through 573 plate appearances — four percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’d previously been regarded as a top-end prospect, but not to the same extent as Hayes.

Conversely, Hayes has slashed at a .282/.351/.463 pace through his first 319 Major League plate appearances. His 2020 performance vastly outweighs his 2021 performance, but his ’21 production has perhaps been sapped by a wrist injury that shelved him for two months early in the year. He’s been a better hitter than Gyorko, plays better defense, and that extension is rather dated by now.

Interestingly, however, there simply haven’t been many position players in this one-plus bracket of service time to use as a point of comparison. That’s been especially true in recent years, when touted young players have either signed before reaching a full year of service or waited to further establish themselves in the Majors. Ozzie Albies, who inked a seven-year, $35MM extension in 2019 is the most recent comparable, but that was one of the more widely panned extensions in recent memory. Hayes, presumably, would be looking to set some form of new bar for players in this general service bracket if he were to seriously entertain offers.

Of course, whether the Pirates would want any part of setting a new precedent in any service bracket remains questionable, at best. The largest contract the Pirates have ever given out was a six-year, $60MM one to catcher Jason Kendall way back in the year 2000. That pact ties them with Cleveland for the smallest franchise-record contract awarded to an individual player. Biertempfel speculates within his column that the Pirates may already have put forth a larger offer than that to Hayes. If that is indeed the case, it’d be a rather shocking effort from such a historically low-payroll club.

Where Do The Cubs Go From Here?

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Last week’s trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were painful for Cubs fans.  Rizzo had been a Cub for 9.5 years.  Baez was drafted by the Cubs and his tenure lasted a decade.  Bryant was with the team for eight years after being drafted.  By 3pm Friday, all three were in different uniforms.  We can debate separately why it came to this, but today the question is, where do the Cubs go from here?

Let’s take stock of what the Cubs currently have at each position.

Catcher

Willson Contreras, 29, is under team control through 2022.  As Contreras put it recently, “This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.”  Given GM Jed Hoyer’s frustration in failing to lock up Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, the Cubs may not necessarily be able to match up with Contreras, in which case an offseason trade would make sense.

22-year-old Miguel Amaya, the heir apparent, currently sports an odd Double-A batting line of .215/.406/.304.  FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently downgraded Amaya to a 45 grade, on account of a relative lack of power.  He hasn’t played since June 3rd due to an injury.

There are no franchise catchers in the 2021-22 free agent class, so the Cubs have all of 2022 to figure out if their future starter behind the dish will be Contreras, Amaya, or neither.

First Base

Rizzo was a mainstay at first base for the Cubs since 2012, but he was traded to the Yankees last Thursday.  Last March, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported the Cubs offered him a five-year, $70MM extension.  Technically, the Cubs could bring Rizzo back in the offseason, but that will probably only happen if he finds the open market terribly disappointing.  And even in that case, he may prefer to play for a team with a better shot at reaching the playoffs.

In Rizzo’s absence, Patrick Wisdom has been playing first base for the Cubs.  Wisdom, who turns 30 later this month, owns a 142 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances this year.  More time will be needed to determine whether Wisdom is a valuable late bloomer, or if he’s a journeyman having a good couple of months.  Wisdom is nowhere near free agency and won’t even be arbitration eligible until after 2023, so the Cubs can afford to give him regular playing time in 2022.  He’s played more third than first base, so that could be his ultimate spot.  The Cubs could also take a look some point at Alfonso Rivas, who has a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A despite modest power.

This winter the Cubs could hit the market for a veteran placeholder in the mold of Brandon Belt or C.J. Cron, if they decide to play Wisdom mostly at third base in 2022.

Second Base

The Cubs were surprisingly able to land Nick Madrigal from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel in one of their trade deadline deals.  Madrigal, 25 in March, is under team control through 2026.  He’s out for the season due to a torn hamstring, but figures to be a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup for years.

Shortstop

In 2019, Baez settled in as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, a year after he finished second in the MVP voting.  He was a fan favorite, but again, the Cubs couldn’t find common ground on a contract extension.  Baez was traded to the Mets, where he’ll play shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns from an injury, and then switch to second base to finish out the season alongside his friend.

Last April, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that in spring 2020, the Cubs offered Baez a contract in the range of $160-170MM.  ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the $180MM range.  That’s not an amount I expect Baez to approach in free agency this winter, especially with significant competition at shortstop.  This is a case where the Cubs keeping the door open to a reunion could potentially matter, but like Rizzo he’d still have to experience a disappointing market first.  The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could further complicate matters.

Under the Theo Epstein regime, the Cubs were not opposed to making a free agent strike if they liked the player, even if their perceived competitive window was not yet open.  The idea worked poorly with Edwin Jackson, and well with Jon Lester.  In that sense, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Cubs make a run at one of the jewels of the 2021-22 free agent class, Corey Seager or Carlos Correa.  Both are young enough that if 2022 and ’23 turn out to be rebuilding years for the Cubs, they’d still have a portion of the player’s prime.  The players might require a premium to enter into a rebuilding situation.

On the other hand, the Cubs’ $126MM deal for Yu Darvish will be nearly three years in the past when free agency opens, and the Ricketts family has not been flexing financial muscle in the interim.  The Cubs have only about $40MM committed to the 2022 payroll, with Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote.

Barring an unlikely major free agent signing, the Cubs’ future at shortstop involves Nico Hoerner and Ed Howard.  Hoerner figures to play the position in the immediate future.  Howard, who the Cubs drafted 16th overall out of high school last summer, might be the long-term answer.  Cristian Hernandez may be in that discussion as well, but both teenagers are several years away.

Third Base

Wisdom and Bote should be in the mix for the Cubs at the hot corner next year, with Matt Duffy headed to free agency.  Prospect Christopher Morel hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching so far this year, but if he figures it out he’ll enter the third base picture.  Even if Wisdom works out as a big league regular, the Cubs will be lacking at whichever infield corner he doesn’t play.  The free agent market doesn’t offer any exciting players, aside from Bryant.

Left Field

Ian Happ has drawn the Cubs’ left field assignment of late, though he’s having an abysmal year.  Making $4.1MM through arbitration this year, he won’t get much of a raise this winter, so the Cubs can afford another year to see if he can regain his hitting stroke.  A stopgap veteran addition would also make sense, with free agency featuring Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and even players the Cubs have already tried like Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson.

Center Field

The Cubs are well-covered here, as prospect Brennen Davis was recently ranked 30th in the game by Baseball America.  Davis is playing well at Double-A this year, with a .267/.383/.515 line.  BA has suggested he may eventually move to right field, and at Double-A he’s spent more time in center but a fair bit in right.  You can safely pencil Davis in at one of those two spots – probably in late April next year once he’s done “working on his defense” (wink, wink).

Meanwhile in the Majors, with Happ struggling and Jake Marisnick traded, Rafael Ortega is attempting to win the Cubs’ regular center field job.  After a recent home run binge, the 30-year-old is up to a 144 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances.  Like Wisdom, it’s too early to say whether Ortega will establish himself as an above average big leaguer.  But the Cubs are in good position to let Ortega try for the rest of the year, and into 2022 if it goes well.

Right Field

With a 63 wRC+ this year, Jason Heyward’s offense has been reminiscent of his first year with the Cubs, when he surprisingly slumped to a 72 mark.  If his struggles persist, the Cubs are going to have better uses of the playing time.  Heyward is owed $44MM from 2022-23.  He remains the one large contract on the Cubs’ books, but only two years remain.

Greg Deichmann, who joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade with Oakland, is a name to watch in the team’s right field mix.  He posted a .433 OBP for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators and should be in the Majors soon.  The Cubs have a slew of other outfield prospects in the system, but most of them are further away.

Starting Rotation

Kyle Hendricks continues to be the rock of the Cubs’ rotation.  The low-key veteran can be retained through 2024 if the Cubs pick up his club option.  While Hendricks could be traded this winter, the 31-year-old soft-tosser could also be part of the next Cubs contender.  Hendricks seems like he’ll age gracefully, since he’s not dependent on velocity.

Adbert Alzolay has shown enough to have a rotation spot locked down for next year.  He’s got a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts, which isn’t great, but he probably won’t continue to see a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard.  Alzolay’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been pronounced, however: 19 home runs in 196 batters faced.  Still, the bar is pretty low to be in the Cubs’ 2022 rotation.  Alec Mills will still be around next year to fill a swingman role.

Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson are being stretched out for looks in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch.  These are not pitchers the prospect hounds get particularly excited about, but the Cubs have plenty of opportunity for anyone who can capitalize.  Prospect gurus do get excited about Brailyn Marquez, who Baseball America ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game.  However, the 22-year-old has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder strain. Caleb Kilian, acquired in the Bryant deal, has pitched well at Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors relatively soon.

As it stands now, the Cubs simply don’t have the pitching in-house to get through the 2022 season, let alone compete.  It’s a rotation ripe for opportunistic free agent signings, a place where guys like Dylan Bundy or James Paxton can look to get their careers back on track before getting flipped for prospects.

Bullpen

The Cubs’ bullpen has been stripped of its three highest-leverage relievers: Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin.  Codi Heuer, acquired in the Kimbrel deal, will take a spot.  Beyond him, I assume the Cubs will look to replicate one of their few successes of the previous offseason: the signings of Tepera and Chafin for a total of $3.55MM.  The goal will be to sign another batch of veteran relievers, coax good first halves out of them, and trade them for prospects at the deadline.

Conclusion

After all the star players were purged, the Cubs are frankly low on present talent.  For 2022, they’ve got massive holes throughout their lineup and pitching staff.  Their farm system has Davis plus various interesting players, but it’s not teeming with blue-chip prospects like the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Tigers.  Given their market size, it doesn’t seem like the Cubs should be dropping down to a bottom-10 payroll in the game.  But an analysis of the roster and farm system suggests the Cubs cannot spend their way back into contention, at least not in the 2021-22 offseason alone.  Last time it was a three-year rebuild, and to contend again with anything less will be a difficult or expensive feat.

July Headlines: National League

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This year’s trade season did not disappoint. After a wild couple of days, we’re gonna do our best to recap the action from one of the busiest trade deadlines in recent memory. Let’s start with the headlines coming out of the Senior Circuit this month…

The Champs Are Still The Champs: This phrase, in many ways, could serve as an ironic headline for this year’s trade deadline, as we saw the dismantling of a couple of former championship teams. The reigning champ, however, was not one of them. The Dodgers reasserted themselves as the team to beat in the National League by making the splashiest move of the deadline in acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals.

The Dodgers stepped up, and now they have perhaps the most intimidating starter of his generation slotted into a rotation with Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher of his generation, along with young stud Walker Buehler. It’s an amazing collection of talent for a single team.

That said, the Turner acquisition might be even more impactful, as he’s under team control  through next season. Turner and Mookie Betts as a 1-2 punch in the lineup are devastating. Interestingly, the Dodgers also got Corey Seager back from the injured list today, and it remains to be seen how the Dodgers will deploy their pair of All-Star shortstops (to say nothing of Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor). The Dodgers have options now and for the future. Remember, Seager is a free agent after the season. They can still bring back their World Series MVP at the right price point, but they won’t be pressured to now that they have Turner in the fold.

The Padres Don’t Land Mad Max: The trade deadline madness really began on Thursday night when it was announced that the Padres and Nats had agreed on the players involved in a Scherzer deal. That didn’t sit well with the Dodgers, who swooped in to remind the Padres of who still runs the West. The Padres were expected to turn their attention to Jose Berrios, but they weren’t able to get him either.

At the end of the day, the Padres didn’t get Scherzer, Berrios, Joey Gallo, or any other of the big names. They did add Adam Frazier, a versatile defender and good contact hitter, along with Daniel Hudson, who is a legitimate get for the bullpen, and Jake Marisnick, who compliments their centerfield options nicely, even if he’s not much more than a depth piece. It was a less impactful deadline than expected, but what’s worse: Fernando Tatis Jr. promptly reaggravated his shoulder injury. Add it all up, and the swing from potentially acquiring Scherzer to potentially losing Tatis is enough to give any Padres fan whiplash.

Giants Add Bryant: The Padres took a big swing and missed, the Dodgers took their swing and connected, and sure to form, the Giants played the deadline slow and steady. Does the tortoise win again? Time will tell, but the Giants did ultimately nab a former MVP in Kris Bryant without giving up a top prospect. Bryant fits their profile like a glove, and he’ll be able to fill in at third until Evan Longoria returns and then move to the outfield.

Remember: The Giants have a three-game head start on LA and a five-game lead on the Padres. Adding Bryant has game-changing potential, while Tony Watson was a solid, low-key add to the pen. The Dodgers are scary, but if the Giants keep playing their game, LA may find themselves in the wild card game anyway.

Cubs Collapse, Dismantle 2016 World Series Champs: In a vacuum, the Cubs had a pretty good deadline. They added a number of buzzy, interesting young players like Nick Madrigal, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Alexander Canario. But it came at a cost. After years of rumors, Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez were finally shipped out of town, along with Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Ryan Tepera, Marisnick, and Trevor Williams. New players — and new narratives — are long overdue in Chicago, and the next chapter awaits.

Nationals Collapse, Dismantle 2019 World Series Champs: It’s appropriate that the Cubs are in DC to play the Nats this weekend, because really, the two clubs are mirror images of one another, right down to their interconnecting pieces like Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester. Both teams were trying to contend on the legs of recent title teams, both teams had disastrous months of July, and both clubs desperately needed an influx of young talent. Both teams got it on Friday.

The Nats farm system was even more barren than Chicago’s and their need to restock even direr given the presence of young superstud Juan Soto. So Washington said their fare-thee-wells to  Scherzer, Turner, Hudson, and Yan Gomes from the title team, plus recent additions Lester, Schwarber, Brad Hand, and Josh Harrison. GM Mike Rizzo does not sell off pieces willy nilly, but in doing so, they got some high-end, near-ready pieces as they look to quickly rebuild a contender in context around Soto before the Scott Boras client reaches free agency after the 2024 season.

Brewers Take Their Place Atop The NL Central: Milwaukee made their big acquisition back in May, and Willy Adames has transformed himself and the club since his arrival. They were last under .500 on the day before Adames arrived, they’ve gone 41-19 since and taken firm hold of the NL Central. Still, some tinkering remained on the docket for July, as the Brewers picked up Eduardo Escobar, Rowdy Tellez, John Curtiss, and Daniel Norris.

Injuries Keeping Mets From Runaway Division Title: The Mets left deadline day with a more acute awareness of what they lost than what they gained: Jacob deGrom has been shut down for another couple of weeks, leaving the all-world hurler out until at least September. That’s heartbreaking for a Mets team with a clear path to an NL East title. Plenty of upside remains in the Mets rotation with Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker posting career years, Carlos Carrasco set to make his debut, and Tylor Megill providing the surprising rookie breakout contenders seek. Still, deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are questionable at best for the rest of the season, and the only rotation additions the Mets made at the deadline were Rich Hill and Trevor Williams.

They did, however, account for Francisco Lindor’s injury by adding Javier Baez, Lindor’s friend and countrymate who can ably fill in while Lindor is out and then slide to second or third when he returns. Baez isn’t, perhaps, the former Cub that Mets fans expected, but he’s an excellent fit alongside Lindor and should bolster the pitching staff with his stellar glove — even if acquiring him did cost them a former first-rounder in Crow-Armstrong.

Braves Lose Acuna For The Season: The deadline might have looked a lot different for Atlanta had they not lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season back on July 10th. Without Acuna and Mike Soroka, the Braves weren’t expected to make any major swings at contention. But even a 13-12 July was enough to keep them within four games of first. A fourth consecutive NL East title remains in reach. So they nabbed one of the top available relief arms in Richard Rodriguez, as well as, seemingly, all the outfielders: Jorge Soler, old pal Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson, plus Stephen Vogt to reinforce their catching corps.

Soft Buys From The Fringes Of Contention: The Giants and Dodgers made headline additions, while the Nats and Cubs took a firm step away from contention. In the middle, there were a number of clubs that neither sold the farm nor raised the white flag. Such as…

…the Phillies… who seemed poised to add a bevy of arms given their bullpen situation, not to mention a starting rotation that’s received underwhelming performances from the back end. Instead, only Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy came to help, and they cost the Phillies’ top prospect Spencer Howard. Howard’s handling had been in question all season, and now he’s been served an unceremonious end to his Philly tenure. Gibson’s had a fine season thus far with the Rangers, but his groundball approach will be tested in front of Philly’s subpar infield defense. Sure, Freddy Galvis brings his glove back to help out, but will that be enough?

…and the Reds… who looked to undo their winter penny-pinching by restocking the bullpen. Justin Wilson, Luis Cessa, and Mychal Givens will try to help a bullpen that ranks 29th with a 5.31 ERA. The Reds’ inconsistent play in July kept them squarely on the deadline fence, however, and now that Nick Castellanos is on the injured list, they’re seven games behind the Brewers and looking like longshots for the postseason.

…and the Cardinals…who added a few pieces at the deadline, despite being 9.5 games behind the Brewers and 6.5 out of a wild card spot. The additions were modest, however, as St. Louis went on a run of graybeard southpaws in July, adding 36-year-old Wade LeBlanc, 37-year-old Jon Lester, and 38-year-old J.A. Happ to a rotation fronted by 39-year-old Adam Wainwright and caught by 39-year-old Yadier Molina.

Cellar Dwellers Sell: The Marlins, Pirates, and Diamondbacks, each in last place of their respective divisions, made some moves to turn expiring talent into youth for the future. The Marlins added the biggest fish in Jesus Luzardo, but the Pirates did well for themselves, too, by adding some plug-and-play talent like Michael Chavis from Boston and Bryse Wilson from Atlanta, while also grabbing two prospects from Seattle for Tyler Anderson. The Dbacks weren’t quite as active, but they did move Escobar and Joakim Soria, though a COVID-19 outbreak has brought more pressing issues to their attention.

The Rockies Don’t Trade Trevor Story Or Jon Gray: The most perplexing moves of the deadline were the trades that didn’t happen. Despite having no shot at contention in a division with zero margin for error (in the short-and-long term), the Rockies chose to stand pat rather than build for the future. Holding Gray is one thing, but Story has stated his desire to move on, so their decision not to acquire a prospect or two for him before he walks might be the biggest shock of deadline season.

Top 60 Trade Candidates

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The week of the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us! We’ve seen a handful of deals thus far — Nelson Cruz to the Rays, Rich Hill to the Mets, Adam Frazier to the Padres, Joc Pederson to the Braves — but most of the market’s top names are still waiting to learn their fate. The stage is set for a chaotic few days of deal-making.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club in a trade. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. Those who aren’t qualifying offer candidates are particularly likely to be flipped elsewhere. Some of those names will outrank more impactful players with a lower likelihood of being dealt.

It’s all subjective and debatable, and that’s part of the fun of the whole exercise. No one’s here for preamble, so let’s dive right into the list!

1. Max Scherzer, RHP: The Nationals are 1-5 since GM Mike Rizzo said his team’s upcoming play would determine his deadline approach, including a sweep at the hands of the Orioles and a crushing walk-off loss to one of the teams they’re directly chasing in the NL East: the Phillies. The Nats are 8.5 back in the division and 11.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. Now, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports that Scherzer is open to trades and would waive his 10-and-5 no-trade rights. Scherzer’s enormous contract and deferred money still make a trade complicated to sort out, and he’s dealing with what seems to be a minor triceps issue. He’s slated to start Thursday, the day before the deadline. It seems quite possible that’ll be his Nats farewell.

2. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF/1B, Cubs: At the time of our last Top Trade Candidate list, the Cubs looked like they’d have no choice but to hold onto Bryant. However, their stay atop the NL Central is a distant memory following a catastrophic losing streak and president Jed Hoyer’s acknowledgment that his team will operate as a seller. This was probably the direction the front office envisioned all along after trading Yu Darvish this winter, and Bryant’s resurgent season has likely bolstered his value considerably. He can help clubs with outfield or corner infield needs, and his .269/.356/.500 slash would be a boost to the heart of any order. With a $19.5MM salary in 2021, however, Bryant could be a tough financial pill for some teams to swallow.

3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs: The first year-plus of Kimbrel’s time in Chicago made the team’s three-year investment in the All-Star closer look regrettable, to say the least. But the now-33-year-old Kimbrel has engineered a rebound so impressive that next year’s $16MM club option now looks like a potential bargain. Kimbrel has been better than ever in 2021, pitching to a 0.49 ERA with a superlative 46.7 percent strikeout rate and a 9.5 percent walk rate in 36 2/3 innings. The salary might limit his market, but deep pocketed clubs should all have interest in Kimbrel, who very suddenly has a good bit of trade value.

4. Starling Marte, OF, Marlins: If the Marlins truly only offered a player of Marte’s caliber three years and under $40MM on an extension, it’s hard to believe they were ever serious about extending him. Regardless, with those efforts now in the rear-view mirror, Marte is one of the best and likeliest players to be traded. He’s enjoying one of his best seasons ever at the plate — arguably his best — playing good defense and running more than he has since 2018 (21-for-24 in stolen bases). He’s a rental, and not an especially cheap one with a $12.5MM salary ($4.37MM owed post-deadline), but few players represent a larger potential upgrade.

5. Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: Playing on a one-year, $6MM contract, Gray is one of the best and likeliest rental starters to change hands. The Rockies won’t issue him a qualifying offer, but he’s a solid enough rotation piece that the bulk of contenders in the game would consider him a decisive upgrade. Not every team would view him as a surefire postseason starter, but he’s an upgrade over nearly any club’s fourth/fifth starters.

6. Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins: Every contender could use an arm like Pineda to help deepen the rotation, and if he’s healthy, he could even be a playoff rotation option for some clubs. He’s missed a bit of time with elbow inflammation this year but returned from the IL to toss five innings of one-run ball against the White Sox. He’ll be owed $3.5MM post-deadline and has an overall 3.86 ERA, 21.5 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. This is what solid deadline rentals look like.

7. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Story is only listed below Gray because the Rockies know they can at least get a compensatory draft pick if they make him a qualifying offer, which creates the slight chance they’ll simply hold him. That still seems unlikely, however, as Story won’t be re-signing in Colorado and is one of the best bats available on a thin trade market for infield upgrades. He isn’t having a great season, but Story’s track record alone will create interest.

8. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Pirates: The Bucs signed Anderson to soak up some starts in the first half and, ideally, move him for a modest deadline return. With 103 1/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball spread across 18 starts, Anderson has done just that. If you throw out a nine-run meltdown in Atlanta, the ERA plummets to 3.93 in his 17 other starts. Anderson doesn’t miss tons of bats, but he’s shown excellent control while generally limiting hard contact. He won’t be a headline-grabbing addition, but for a team looking to affordably stabilize a back-of-the-rotation carousel, Anderson and his $2.5MM base salary ought to be appealing.

9. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers: The latest “surprise” three-year rotation signing by the Rangers to have turned into a bargain, Gibson is durable, effective and affordable. Among pitchers controlled beyond the 2021 season, Gibson is the likeliest to be traded. It should be noted that he’s had a trio of poorly timed rough outings, but no team was going to believe he’d sustain the sub-2.00 ERA he carried into July anyhow. He’s earning $8MM next year, and most contending clubs would be pleased to plug him into the middle of the rotation.

10. Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Pirates: He’s not overpowering from a velocity standpoint, but Rodriguez has outstanding command and the ability to miss bats in bunches when he’s throwing his breaking ball at higher levels than he has in 2021. Rodriguez has a 2.98 ERA, 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate dating back to 2018. He’s earning just $1.7MM in 2021 and controlled two more years via arbitration. Any club looking for bullpen help should have some level of interest.

11. Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: Gallo’s name has been on the trade market on and off for a few years now, but with free agency squarely in sight after the 2022 season and the Rangers rebuilding, this is his value’s apex. Gallo is a premium corner outfield defender with a ridiculous 19.3 percent walk rate and 24 home runs. Gallo went on a tear beginning in early June, though his bat has cooled in his past few games.

12. Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins: Berrios is one of the best arms on this summer’s market, but the asking price is accordingly exorbitant. The Twins are reported to be seeking a pre-arb Major League player and multiple top 100 prospects to part with their top starter. That’ll be a tough price to pay for any rival team, but you can hardly blame Minnesota for asking, given the dearth of available starters and the Twins’ aspirations to be competitive again as soon as 2022.

13. Merrill Kelly, RHP, D-backs: Kelly isn’t a lock to be traded, given an extremely affordable $5.25MM club option for 2022. However, with so many teams looking for rotation help and simultaneously trying to duck the luxury tax, his affordable contract and steady production make him plenty appealing. Kelly had a dismal first month of 2021 as he returned from thoracic outlet surgery, but he’s quickly begun to look like one of the better success stories from that operation in recent memory. In his past 18 starts, Kelly owns a 3.79 ERA (3.59 FIP) with a 21.7 percent strikeout rate and 5.5 percent walk rate.

14. Eduardo Escobar, 3B/2B, D-backs: Reports of an on early, on-the-verge-of-completion deal to the White Sox proved to be overstated, as other clubs jumped into the fray and slowed the pace of negotiations. But an Escobar trade is more a matter of “when” and “where” than “if.” A free-agent-to-be on baseball’s worst team, the switch-hitting Escobar will take his 22 homers and multi-positional ability to a new team before month’s end.

15. Jonathan Schoop, 1B/2B, Tigers: One of baseball’s hottest hitters since Memorial Day, Schoop is playing on a one-year, $4.5MM contract and is on pace for his best power output since his 32-homer 2017 campaign. Since June 1, Schoop has ripped a dozen homers while hitting .335 and slugging just shy of .600. There’s some sentiment out there that a meager return in a trade might not be enough for the Tigers to part with Schoop as A.J. Hinch looks to help shift to a winning culture in the clubhouse. Still, he’d make sense for clubs who covet a right-handed-hitting infielder.

16. Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: GM Mike Rizzo has gone on record saying that if the team goes into sell mode, that “anything is on the table, I would think.” Trading Turner would be immensely difficult for the Nats, both due to his general excellence and the team’s perennial win-now mindset. But MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported this week that ownership doesn’t seem incline to extend Turner, and the 2021 season has largely slipped away from the Nationals. This would take an enormous return, but what might’ve seemed like fantasy a week ago is now relatively plausible. The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reported last night that interest in Turner is quite strong.

17. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals: A perennial entrant in the July rumor extravaganza, Merrifield is reported to be “more” available than he was in years past. Of course, he was completely off limits in 2018 and almost entirely off limits in 2019, so that’s not a high bar to clear. Merrifield’s bat is coming around after a slow month of May, and he’s leading the league in steals. His contract is eminently affordable and keeps him under club control through 2023. The Royals are trying to win now, so they’ll want MLB-ready pieces in return. A trade still seems like a long shot.

18. Zach Davies, RHP, Cubs: Davies owns a respectable 4.30 ERA through 21 starts for the Cubs in 2021. That’s where most of the good news ends, however, as Davies is sporting a 15.5 percent strikeout rate against a career-worst 11.9 percent walk rate and is averaging fewer than five innings per start. The 3.5 percent differential between his strikeout rate and walk rate ranks dead last among qualified starters (by a wide margin). Davis is durable and was much better than this in 2019-20, but his lackluster results and $8.625MM salary will prevent the Cubs from getting too much in return.

19. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron signed a minor league deal that carried just a $1MM base salary, and he’s provided a nice return on that modest investment by the Rox. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. There are plenty of clubs that could use a cheap rental either at first base/designated hitter or just as a right-handed bat off the bench. Cron, as usual, has held his own against righties and decimated left-handed pitching.

20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Indians: Cleveland is nine games back in the division and five back from a Wild Card spot. They’re certainly not out of postseason contention, but with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale sidelined, they’re sending out Zach Plesac and a collection of rookies in the rotation. Their odds don’t look great at the moment. Hernandez is on an affordable $5MM salary with a $6MM option for 2022. That option could mean he simply stays put, but Hernandez could appeal to clubs looking for affordable infield help.

21. Daniel Bard, RHP, Rockies: Bard has thrown 65 2/3 innings since making his remarkable return to the Majors last season and has posted a 3.86 ERA with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 10.2 percent walk rate in that time. He’s been the Rockies’ go-to option in the ninth inning for much of that time. The 36-year-old is actually controlled into 2022 via arbitration, so he could hold more appeal than many of the run of rental relievers to follow immediately.

22. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: Kennedy is the quintessential veteran relief rental. He’s having a resurgent season for a last-place Rangers club that inked him to a no-risk minor league deal over the winter. This type of scenario is why rebuilding teams sign players like Kennedy. His days in Texas are numbered. (Well, unless the Astros acquire him.)

23. Ryan Tepera, RHP, Cubs: Make all the “MVP” jokes you like after last year’s tenth-place vote — Tepera is pitching the best ball of his career in 2021. The 33-year-old’s strikeout rate is down a bit from 2020 (34.8 percent to 30.3 percent), but his walk rate has improved by six percent as well. Tepera has one of the best ground-ball rates of his career, one of his best homer-to-flyball rates and is sporting a 2.91 ERA. He’s also earning just $800K. You want an affordable rental reliever? Here’s your guy.

24. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Nationals: This is arguably the best Hudson we’ve ever seen. He’s striking out a career-high 38.5 percent of opponents against a career-best 5.7 percent walk rate. The 34-year-old’s 2.27 ERA is one of the best marks on this list, and he’s currently pitching high-leverage innings for a Nationals club that is eight games back in the NL East and 11 back in the Wild Card hunt. It’s looking likelier and likelier that Washington bites the bullet and moves some veteran players.

25. Mychal Givens, RHP, Rockies: An impending free-agent reliever with a solid track record in the midst of another quality season, Givens is an obvious trade candidate for the Rockies as they look to sell veteran pieces. He’s earning $4.05MM in 2021, and while his strikeout rate isn’t where it was at its peak, it’s not too far off. Givens has a sub-3.00 ERA while pitching his home games at Coors Field and will be owed $1.42MM post-deadline.

26. Joakim Soria, RHP, D-backs: With a 2.70 ERA and a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 frames over the last month, Soria has begun to right the ship at the best possible time for the Snakes. He’s a proven veteran reliever playing on a one-year $3.5MM deal for MLB’s worst team. It’d be a shock if he still pitched for the D-backs come July 31.

27. Yimi Garcia, RHP, Marlins: Garcia, 31 next month, has had a generally solid season but has seen a pair of recent hiccups boost his ERA by nearly a whole run. He’s still sitting in the mid-3.00s with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and above-average control. He has a 3.17 ERA in 113 2/3 innings dating back to 2019 and is pitching on a $1.9MM salary.

28. Hansel Robles, RHP, Twins: Robles might’ve looked a bit more appealing before a recent stretch that’s seen him surrender 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 frames, but as a hard-throwing reliever with late-inning experience, he’s still a candidate to change hands. Robles walks too many and has recently given up a few untimely long balls, but his overall body of work this season has been serviceable — particularly considering his $2MM salary.

29. Brad Hand, LHP, Nationals: Hand is a big name whose performance probably doesn’t quite align with his reputation among fans. It’s worth remembering that he went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the 2020 season when any team could’ve had him for $10MM. He eventually topped that by a measure of $500K in free agency, but most clubs seemingly weren’t keen on paying him at this rate less than a year ago. Now, he’s sitting on his worst strikeout rate since moving to the bullpen (23 percent) and his highest walk rate (9.8 percent). His fastball has bounced back from a 2020 dip, but Hand isn’t quite the trade chip for a reeling Nats team that some would expect based on his name value. Last night’s blown save in a pivotal game for the Nats couldn’t have helped his stock.

30. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: It’s been a nice rebound year for Shaw in many ways. He’s sporting a sub-3.00 ERA with a career-high 27.6 percent strikeout rate. He’s also walking more hitters than ever before, however, and his 48.6 percent grounder rate is down about six percent from his peak. Walking 15 percent of your opponents is going to give some teams pause, but Shaw is playing on a $1MM salary, so those with luxury concerns might overlook the spotty control and focus on the salary. Again, the Indians could just hold onto all their potential trade pieces, but they’re a long shot for the playoffs and Shaw will generate interest.

31. Javier Baez, SS, Cubs: Yet another Cubs rental, Baez is one of the game’s flashiest defenders and has long been a fan favorite in Chicago. His free-swinging ways have worsened in 2021, though, as he’s punching out in nearly 37 percent of his plate appearances and sitting on a lowly .287 OBP. Baez’s power offsets that to an extent (22 home runs, .239 ISO, 105 wRC+), but he’s chasing more than ever and making contact at his worst rate since his rookie season. While some hitters have improved since the league came down on pitcher substance usage, Baez’s numbers have gotten worse. He also suffered an apparent foot/leg injury Sunday, though he sure didn’t look to hobbled when ripping last night’s walk-off hit.

32. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs: Rizzo is hitting better than he did in 2020, but he’s still a good way from his peak form. A .248/.346/.441 batting line is comfortably above league average (114 wRC+), but it’s a far-cry from the borderline-MVP level of offense Rizzo has produced in the past. He’s making $16.5MM in 2021, so while he’s a big name with a big track record, he might not carry the trade value some would expect.

33. Caleb Smith, LHP, D-backs: Smith was pitching quite well for Arizona, but his numbers ballooned after the Dodgers ambushed him for nine runs in his final start of the first half. He’s still carrying a 4.61 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate, but that ERA was at 3.45 prior to his Dodgers encounter. Smith will soon turn 30, and while he doesn’t have great command, he misses plenty of bats and has two years of control remaining beyond the current campaign. He’s also earning just $1.465MM in 2021, so he’s a possible target for teams with luxury concerns.

34. Adam Duvall, OF, Marlins: Duvall, 33 in September, is playing his usual game — big power, dismal OBP, good corner-outfield defense. An OBP in the .280 range isn’t going to appeal to modern front offices (hence his offseason non-tender and subsequent one-year deal), and his uncharacteristic struggles against lefties in 2021 don’t help his value. Still, a club looking for some right-handed pop and a nice glove in the corners could have interest. Duvall has a mutual option that’s unlikely to be exercised by both parties — all mutual options are — but he’s also controllable another year via arbitration.

35. Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins: Aguilar has been rock-solid since joining the Marlins in the 2019-20 offseason, clubbing 25 homers with a 117 wRC+ in 148 games. He’ll be due one more raise on this year’s $4.35MM salary before reaching free agency post-2022, and the Marlins might look to cash in on his success right now. They could pursue a more affordable replacement this winter or turn to one of multiple in-house alternatives.

36. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals: Taylor isn’t a star, but there aren’t many center fielders available this summer. A .244/.302/.357 batting line isn’t much to look at, but MAT is a lights-out defender in center with a little pop and some speed. He’s also on a $1.75MM deal, making him a nice fourth-outfield target for a team looking to upgrade its bench.

37. Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/LF, Nationals: Harrison hasn’t stopped hitting since the Nats signed him back in 2020. He’s appeared in 120 games and tallied 438 plate appearances while batting .282/.357/.408 with eight homers, 21 doubles and six steals. He’s playing on a $1MM base salary and can handle multiple infield positions as well as the outfield corners. If the Nats sell, Harrison is a pending free agent who several clubs would be happy to add to their bench mix.

38. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, D-backs: A reasonably productive 35-year-old veteran on a one-year, $1.75MM deal with MLB’s worst club? That’s pretty much the definition of a trade candidate. Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he can play the other three infield slots. He’s a switch-hitter with a roughly average offensive line in 2021. He might not be an impact addition to starting lineup, but Cabrera is a solid bench pickup for a contender.

39. David Peralta, OF, D-backs: This hasn’t been Peralta’s best year, but he was an above-average bat each season from 2017-20 — including a 30-homer, career year in 2018. Peralta is hitting the ball on the ground and popping up a bit more often now, which hasn’t helped his output, but he’s a generally solid corner-outfield bat on a reasonable contract. He’s earning $8MM this year and $7.5MM in 2022 (that number will increase to $8MM with 150 days on an active roster in ’21). Peralta hit .290/.348/.471 in more than 1800 PAs from 2017-20.

40. Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal this past winter, Grossman has given the Tigers some power, speed and a strong walk rate. His BABIP is down this season, but that’s largely because he’s hitting fly-balls at a career-high rate. This version of Grossman is a low-average, high-OBP switch-hitter with some value on the bases (12 steals) and average corner outfield defense. The return in a trade probably wouldn’t be huge, so the Tigers could easily hold onto him.

41. Taylor Rogers, LHP, Twins: Rogers recently had a four-run meltdown that pushed his ERA back into the mid-3.00s, but he’s sitting on a career-best 35.5 percent strikeout rate against a tiny 4.8 percent walk rate. His 50 percent ground-ball rate is well above the league average, he has closing experience, and he’s effective against both lefties and righties alike. He’s also controlled into 2022. There aren’t many more desirable relievers out there this summer. Rogers was set to appear higher on this list, but last night’s apparent finger/hand injury makes a trade less likely.

42. Dylan Floro, RHP, Marlins: Another Marlins reliever, Floro is a weak-contact specialist with strong ground-ball numbers and a passable but below-average strikeout rate. He’s walking an abnormal number of hitters in 2021 but is generally solid in that regard. He’s controlled two more seasons, but that didn’t stop Miami from trading Adam Cimber to the Jays earlier this summer.

43. Paul Fry, LHP, Orioles: Fry has quietly stepped up as a solid lefty in the Baltimore ’pen. He isn’t a well-known name, which happens when you’re throwing late innings on a last-place club, but Fry carries a 3.24 ERA dating back to last year. His 31.4 percent strikeout rate is a career-high. Fry won’t be arb-eligible until this winter and is controllable through 2024.

44. Jose Cisnero, RHP, Tigers: Cisnero went nearly five years between MLB appearances, pitching in Mexico and in the Dominican Winter League before the Tigers pulled him back into affiliated ball. It’s been an underrated move that has paid considerable dividends, as Cisnero has given them 107 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with a 26.9 percent strikeout rate against a 10.1 percent walk rate. The 32-year-old is playing on a $970K salary, is controlled two more years beyond 2021, and is averaging 97.1 mph on his heater this year.

45. Tyler Duffey, RHP, Twins: Duffey hasn’t looked like the dominant reliever he was in 2019-20, as his K-BB numbers have gone in the wrong direction. That said, he’s earning just $2.2MM in 2021 and, after giving up three runs in an inning of work back on May 20, has given up a combined three earned runs in his last 22 innings. The K-BB downturn won’t sit well with some clubs, but Duffey is a solid reliever who another team might dream on a bit when looking at his brilliant 2019-20 output.

46. Caleb Thielbar, LHP, Twins: While he’s controlled through 2024, Thielbar is also a 34-year-old whom the Twins plucked out of indie ball after a five-year absence from MLB prior to the 2020 season. He’s returned to the bigs with 57 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball and a 29.7 percent strikeout rate. As a hometown guy who went through an odyssey to get back to the Majors, Thielbar is a feel-good story in Minnesota, but he’s also a cheap, controllable lefty in his mid-30s. The Twins would surely consider cashing in if someone made a decent offer.

47. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Angels: Iglesias is fourth among qualified relievers with a 1.92 SIERA and fifth with a 34.8 K-BB%. He’s punching out more hitters than ever before while showing some of the best command of his career. If the Angels fall further back than their current five-game deficit in the Wild Card standings between now and Friday’s deadline, Iglesias would shoot up this list in a hurry. Every contending club would want him.

48. Alex Cobb, RHP, Angels: A lot of the Angels’ pitching acquisitions in recent years haven’t panned out, but Cobb has worked out brilliantly. The move puzzled many onlookers at the time, myself included, but Cobb has rebounded with 77 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball, a career-best 25.7 percent strikeout rate, an 8.0 percent walk rate and a big 53.8 percent grounder rate. The O’s are paying most of his salary, so he’s only owed about $1.75MM post-deadline.

49. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels: A 5.32 ERA isn’t going to drum up much interest among fans, but teams are going to look at Heaney’s 20.5 K-BB% and several other secondary markers when evaluating him. Heaney misses bats in droves and will only be owed about $2.38MM post-deadline. He’s a free agent at season’s end. It’s easy to see someone rolling the dice on the strikeout and walk tendencies….that is, if the Angels sell.

50. Charlie Morton, RHP, Braves: Speaking of “…if they sell” teams and their starting pitchers, Morton is the most appealing rental arm on a Braves club that is five back in the division and eight back in the Wild Card. Atlanta’s next five games are against the division-leading Mets. A big showing will likely embolden the Braves to make some more additions, but if the Mets take the majority of these games or even sweep them, Morton and other Braves could find themselves on the block. Morton, who’s being paid $15MM in 2021, has a 3.65 ERA overall and a 2.40 mark since mid-June.

51. Drew Smyly, LHP, Braves: It’s a similar story with Smyly, Atlanta’s other one-year rotation pickup for the 2021 season. He got out to a rocky start but has a strong 2.76 ERA since late May. He’s only averaging five innings per start and is on an $11MM contract, but Smyly would be a logical target for contending clubs if the Braves fall to the Mets in decisive fashion this week.

52. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Contreras isn’t an impending free agent like most other Cubs on this list and can be controlled into ’22 more affordably than Kimbrel, so there’s less of a “need” for Chicago to deal him. He’s in the midst of a fine season, however, and there aren’t many starting-caliber catchers who could change hands this summer. He’ll draw interest, both as an immediate upgrade and as a potential gamechanger for a team in 2022.

53. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs: Signed through 2023 with a club option for the 2024 season, Hendricks would be one of the best arms on the market if the Cubs seriously entertain moving him. There’s no urgency for them to do that, however, and trading Hendricks would send a much different message than dealing impending free agents like Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and the already-traded Joc Pederson. Hendricks is owed $14MM in each of the next two seasons and can be kept for a third season on a $16MM option ($1.5MM buyout). The Cubs aren’t actively shopping him, it seems, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be had in the right deal.

54. Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: He hasn’t produced at quite the same level as in 2019, but Mancini looks every bit the part of a middle-of-the-order threat in his return from last year’s cancer diagnosis. Trading him wouldn’t sit well with fans and might not go over well in the clubhouse. Mancini is the heart of the team, and his return from stage three colon cancer has been a bright light in an otherwise ugly Orioles season. Teams will be calling on Mancini, who’ll be one of the better bats available, but as several former GMs explained in talking with The Athletic’s Dan Connolly last month, it’s a difficult spot for Mike Elias and his staff in Baltimore.

55. John Means, LHP, Orioles: Speaking of tough Orioles decisions, earlier this year it looked like Means would draw as much interest as any starter in the game. Means missed six weeks with a shoulder strain, however, and hasn’t been sharp since his return (nine runs in 11 2/3 innings). There’s no way the O’s would trade three and a half years of Means for anything less than a haul, but his recent injury and a pair of wobbly starts in his return might make that hard to come by. It’d be a surprise if teams didn’t at least try over the next few days, but Means felt like a long shot in the first place because of that remaining club control, and now the odds feel even slimmer.

56. Max Kepler, OF, Twins: Kepler’s name has popped up in connection with the Yankees recently, and other clubs would surely have interest because of the affordable five-year, $35MM contract extension he signed a few years back. Kepler had a poor start to the season, but he’s hitting .263/.325/.579 with seven homers in July, boosting his season line to .219/.305/.458. He’s an impact defender in right field who can also handle center. Outfield is a position of depth/strength for the Twins, so perhaps they’d move him if they could get controllable pitching back — but the price would likely be high.

57. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates: It’d take something overwhelming for the Bucs to move four-plus years of Reynolds when he’s already set a new career-best in home runs and is sitting just shy of .400 in the OBP column. Reynolds has the look of a foundational piece, and at the very least, the Pirates know that his value would be just as great this offseason or next summer. There are so many contenders looking for outfield help — center, in particular — that GM Ben Cherington will allow himself the opportunity to be overwhelmed. However, it seems likelier that Reynolds will stay put.

58. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles: Mullins isn’t likely to be moved, but he’s on the list because of A) the impact he’d bring to a new club, B) the demand for center fielders and C) the lack of quality options out there. Baltimore GM Mike Elias won’t be inclined to move Mullins, but a team could certainly try to overwhelm him. Elias’ former team, the Astros, is looking for a center fielder. The Phillies, Mets, Giants and Yankees have all been connected to center field help. Other teams with corner needs figure to have keen interest here, too. Mullins has played like a legitimate superstar  and has four years of control after 2021, though, so the asking price would be almost comical.

59. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: Marquez and the aforementioned Berrios will draw the most interest among controllable arms, but manager Bud Black said earlier this summer that the Rox have already told Marquez he won’t be traded. A Godfather offer could always change that thinking, but if the organization promises a player he’s staying put and he’s ultimately moved anyway, that’s not going to sit well with current players or during future free agent/extension negotiations. Black isn’t the GM, but that was as strong an on-record statement as you’ll see from someone of his status.

60: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: The Padres are reportedly discussing creative scenarios to get the remainder of Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM contract off the books. It was a head-scratching contract at the time, and Hosmer has gone on to provide league-average offense in his three-plus years in San Diego. This won’t be an easy one to move, but it’s hard to blame them for looking into the possibility. (Ditto Wil Myers, if they go that route.)

Notable Names to Watch on the Injured List

Ketel Marte, OF/2B, D-backs

Byron Buxton, OF, Twins

Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers

Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers

Garrett Cooper, 1B/OF, Marlins:

Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Nationals

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds

Colin Moran, 1B, Pirates

Others to Watch

Cubs: Jake Arrieta, Dan Winkler, David Bote, Matt Duffy, Jake Marisnick

D-backs: Tyler Clippard, Kole Calhoun, Madison Bumgarner, Josh Reddick, Noe Ramirez

Indians: Eddie Rosario, Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges

Mariners: Mitch Haniger, Kendall Graveman

Marlins: Richard Bleier, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass, John Curtiss

Nationals: Jon Lester, Josh Bell, Gerardo Parra

Orioles: Cole Sulser, Matt Harvey, Tanner Scott, Anthony Santander

Pirates: Jacob Stallings, Chris Stratton

Reds: Tucker Barnhart, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Tyler Naquin

Royals: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi, Greg Holland, Mike Minor

Tigers: Jose Urena, Daniel Norris, Derek Holland

Twins: Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, Kenta Maeda

Yankees: Clint Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gleyber Torres

MLBTR Poll: Which Contender Should Trade For Jonathan Schoop?

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The Tigers are 47-53, 12 games behind the White Sox for the division lead. Their fate was sealed by a disastrous April when they went 8-19 to start the year. Since then, they’ve actually put together three consecutive winnings months, including an 11-8 mark so far in July. These Tigers have played perhaps the most enticing stretch of baseball we’ve seen from Motor City in years, but they’re still sellers heading into this trade deadline.

Jonathan Schoop, Jose Cisnero, Kyle Funkhouser, Gregory Soto, Daniel Norris, and Jeimer Candelario are the names most likely to draw trade interest here in the week before the deadline, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Schoop’s name has certainly been bandied about the most in the Twitterverse, mostly as a lower-cost option for teams not interesting in paying presumably high-end returns for other available infielders like Trevor Story or Adam Frazier.

Schoop, after all, is a free agent at the end of the year and making just $4.5MM. He doesn’t have the controllable contract like Frazier or the long-term track record of Story, but he would nonetheless be a valuable addition for someone.

With a 116 wRC, he’s an above-average bat for the third time in five years (he was exactly average with a 100 wRC+ in 2019. He’s slashing .289/.330/.471 with a .182 ISO that’s actually a little low for Schoop’s norms. He’s doesn’t strike out over much and his bat carries consistent pop.

Defensively, he’s not garnering the plus marks that he has in the past, but he can still handle multiple positions as a first and second baseman. He absolutely crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a 161 wRC+ this year. He’s a first division platoon bat with the capability of being an everyday, impact player on a playoff team. He fits the Howie Kendrick mold from the 2019 Nationals, and though it’s not fair to put Hendricks’ heroic expectations onto Schoop, he can be that kind of all-purpose, veteran bat that won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

Like Kendrick, his physical abilities don’t leap off the page, and he doesn’t play a premium position, but he’s a textbook professional hitter. Schoop isn’t the big name that many fan bases might be hunting, but if the Tigers are inclined to move him, he can absolutely be a difference-making piece for a contender. Just a couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk did the work of finding the best fits for Schoop, but let’s hear from you: which contender would benefit the most from adding Schoop’s potent right-handed bat to their first base/second base/DH/bench crew?

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MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

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National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

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A Breakout Starter In His Platform Season

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Carlos Rodón was selected third overall in the 2014 draft and was an immediate top prospect upon entering pro ball. He flew to the big leagues, making his MLB debut ten months after his draft date. Rodón was immediately a productive starter, pitching to a 3.75 ERA/4.20 SIERA across 139 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old. It would’ve been easy for the White Sox to envision him as another top-of-the-rotation arm in an organization that had already produced Chris Sale and José Quintana.

Rodón didn’t make the jump to that level over the next few seasons though. He was fine from 2016-18, working to a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP, but it seemed he’d plateaued as a league average arm. That’s useful but probably not what many fans had in mind. Then Rodón dealt with a series of injuries that called his future into question. He landed on the 60-day injured list each season from 2018-20, missing time with shoulder and elbow issues. When healthy enough to pitch over the last two seasons, he was unproductive, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball.

Those struggles even led the White Sox to cut ties with Rodón temporarily. Chicago non-tendered him last winter rather than offer him an arbitration salary that would’ve cost a bit more than $4MM. He spent a good portion of the offseason unsigned before returning to the South Side on a $3MM guarantee in late January. Even at such a low price point, the Rodón reunion looked like a questionable decision given his health woes and recent underperformance. In retrospect, it has proven to be a masterstroke by general manager Rick Hahn and the front office.

Rodón earned a spot in the starting rotation to open the year. He’s stayed healthy to this point and been nothing short of incredible. Rodón has worked to a minuscule 2.31 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He has struck out a career-high 36.1% of batters faced, a mark that trails only Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow among the 146 pitchers with 50+ innings pitched. Rodón’s also fourth among that group (behind deGrom, Burnes and Max Scherzer) in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and SIERA (2.82). The big lefty earned a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career in recognition of that strong work.

Unsurprisingly, Rodón’s featuring the best raw stuff of his career. His fastball is averaging 95.9 MPH this season, a marked increase over his 92-94 MPH range in recent years. Rodón actually first experienced a velocity spike during a couple of relief appearances at the end of last season, but it wasn’t clear whether he’d be able to maintain that with a starter’s workload. He has so far, with no indication of slowing down.

He’s also added a bit more life on the heater at the top of the strike zone, and he’s throwing his slider with increased velocity. Both offerings have been plus, but it’s his fastball that has become almost unhittable. Rodón has generated a league-leading 147 whiffs on four-seamers this season, per Statcast. (His 17.1% swinging strike rate on the offering is tied for third among the 68 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fastbals). In 2018 — his most recent season of more than seven starts — batters hit .257 and slugged .422 off Rodón in at-bats ending with a four-seamer. This year, they’re hitting .180 and slugging .275 against the pitch.

It’s only been three months, but Rodón has performed at an ace-caliber level to this point. He famously threw a no-hitter against the Indians in April, and he’s had an additional seven starts in which he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Rodón has struck out eight or more batters in thirteen of his fifteen appearances, and he’s shown no obvious ill effects from the league’s foreign substance crackdown. In all likelihood, 2021 will mark his heaviest workload in five years, so he’ll need to continue to prove he’s capable of performing at a high level as his innings total piles up.

The White Sox are highly likely to win the AL Central, and Rodón has put himself in what appears to be a very strong future playoff rotation also including Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and one of Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel. He’s in line to again reach free agency this winter, where he’ll be one of the youngest and most productive starting pitchers on the market. There’s no question he’ll fare quite a bit better this time around.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan Schoop Trade

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After a 7-3 loss to the Twins on May 7, the Tigers were a dismal 9-24, and Jonathan Schoop was hitting only .185/.217/.250 through his first 115 plate appearances of the 2021 season.  Since that date, however, things have greatly improved for both player and team.  Detroit has quietly gone 31-27 over the last two-plus months, while Schoop’s revived bat has been a big part of that success — the veteran infielder has hit .320/.368/.567 with 14 homers over his last 253 PA.

While the AL Central is far from a strong division, the Tigers’ surge can probably be seen more as a positive step forward for a rebuilding team than it is a hint of a surprise second-half playoff push.  Fangraphs still gives the Tigers a zero percent chance of reaching the postseason, and the club is both 11.5 games out of a wild card berth and 15 games behind the first-place White Sox.  As solid as Detroit has been since that May 7 nadir, this is still a team that looks like it will be selling at the trade deadline, and an impending free agent like Schoop stands out as a likely candidate to be moved.

Schoop has spent the last two seasons in the Motor City on a pair of one-year free agent contracts, and delivered some solidly above-average offense.  The 29-year-old has hit .277/.322/.469 with 24 homers over 545 PA and 131 games in a Tigers uniform, good for a 113 wRC+ and 118 OPS+.  While the right-handed hitting Schoop has been solid against righty pitching, he has been particularly productive against left-handers this year, with an .880 OPS in 98 PA against southpaws.

Looking at the Statcast numbers, Schoop has a subpar .322 xwOBA, lower than his .337 wOBA.  While he is making more hard contact than last year, Schoop’s hard-hit percentage is still exactly middle of the pack in the 50th percentile.  Schoop has improved his strikeout rate (at least in comparison to the rest of the league) over his two years in Detroit, though he still isn’t walking much, as his lackluster 5.7% walk rate in 2021 actually represents a career high over a full season.

A second baseman for much of his nine-year MLB career, Schoop has actually been more of a regular at first baseman this year, as the Tigers have given youngster Willi Castro most of the playing time at the keystone.  This new position will only increase Schoop’s trade value to potential suitors, as an interested team could deploy Schoop at either first or second base depending on the need, or shuttle him between the two positions based on matchups.  Schoop also has shortstop experience but hasn’t played the position since 2018.

Cash-wise, Schoop would be a pretty inexpensive addition for small-market teams, or bigger-payroll clubs looking to avoid a luxury tax bill.  His one-year deal is worth $4.5MM, so only around $1.6MM of that salary would still be owed to Schoop by July 30.

Injuries, long winning/losing streaks, and other swaps could drastically shake up this list in the coming days, but at the moment, let’s examine which teams might be the best fits for a Schoop deal between now and the trade deadline.

The Other Rebuilders

We can safely rule out the Diamondbacks, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, and Marlins, since their attention will be focused on moving their own trade chips prior to the deadline.

On The Fringe

The Cubs, Cardinals, and Nationals are all under .500 and — according to Fangraphs — have less than a five percent chance at the playoffs.  Barring a big hot streak in the next two weeks, none of this trio will have much use for a rental player like Schoop, and could be selling players of their own.  (Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has already hinted that his team is more inclined to act as deadline sellers.)

The Braves are only slightly ahead with a 7.7% chance at a postseason berth, and Atlanta also has a losing record of 44-45.  Both the Nats and Braves might wait until pretty close to the last minute to sell since they’re still within striking distance in the NL East, though Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending ACL tear might realistically close the book on Atlanta’s chances.  Schoop is something of an imperfect fit anyway in Atlanta, as Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies have first and second base covered.

The Mariners are being given only a three percent chance at the playoffs, which perhaps seems a little slim considering Seattle is 48-43 and only 3.5 games back of a wild card slot (and seven games behind the Astros for the AL West lead).  Those low odds could speak more to the strength of the Astros and Athletics than a reflection of the Mariners’ talent, and if Seattle is still in the hunt by July 30, it wouldn’t be surprising to see aggressive GM Jerry Dipoto make an addition or two in an attempt to keep the Mariners’ postseason drought from reaching 20 seasons.  Schoop would be a nice upgrade for an M’s team that hasn’t gotten much from the second base position all year.

The Angels are behind the Mariners in the standings but are given a higher shot (14.5%) at the playoffs.  That might reflect the quality of the lineup reinforcements coming the Angels’ way, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton should all be back from the injured list prior to the deadline.  Jared Walsh and David Fletcher have first and second base covered for Los Angeles, though Walsh could potentially be moved back into right field duty in the event of a Schoop trade.  In all likelihood, however, the Angels are probably more likely to seek out pitching at the deadline rather than another right-handed hitter.

The Tigers and Indians aren’t frequent trade partners, and it remains to be seen whether Cleveland will be more apt to buy or sell at the deadline given all of its pitching injuries.  The Tribe have acted as both buyers and sellers at the deadline in recent years, however, and despite their struggles, they play in a weak division, have a 45-42 record, and sit 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Fangraphs only gives the Tribe a seven percent chance at the postseason, however, and the club has a very tough upcoming schedule, starting the second half with 10 games against the A’s, Astros, and Rays.  Beyond these factors, the Indians might also prefer to just stand pat with their current options at first and second base — powerful rookie Bobby Bradley has shown a lot of pop, while Cesar Hernandez has mostly gotten on track after a brutal April.

Not Great Fits

The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros are also teams with an abundance of right-handed hitting bats, filled first base/second base positions, and a greater need for pitching.  On paper, Toronto could get really creative and try Schoop (or even Semien) at third base, but that seems pretty far-fetched.  Now that Luke Voit is back from the IL, the Yankees are hopeful their first base issues have been solved, and DJ LeMahieu can now take over at second base.

The Reds likewise have Joey Votto and Jonathan India at first and second base, but given the team’s penchant for shaking up its infield alignment, Cincinnati can’t be entirely ruled out.  A scenario exists where Schoop is acquired, India is moved to third base and Eugenio Suarez is again moved to shortstop.  In all probability, this one is also a longshot, unless Mike Moustakas’ injury absence stretches even longer and the Reds feel the need for more infield help.

The Brewers love multi-positional players, and Schoop could provide help at second base (in the event of another Kolten Wong injury) or at first base, as Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw are both injured and Keston Hiura has largely had a brutal season apart from the last couple of weeks.  However, the Brewers already acquired Schoop back in 2018, as part of a deadline day trade with the Orioles.  Schoop struggled so badly over 46 games with the Brew Crew that the team non-tendered him after the season, so a reunion between the two sides seems unlikely.

Though Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and Tommy La Stella are on the injured list, the Giants already have a decent amount of infield depth even with this trio out of action.  Longoria and La Stella should both be back relatively soon while Belt is expected back at some point, even if his timeline is still uncertain.  Unless there’s a rehab setback somewhere, Schoop doesn’t look like a priority for San Francisco.

Slightly Better Fits

The Mets are known to be exploring more third base options, but the team could address the issue from within by acquiring Schoop to play second base and then moving Jeff McNeil into the third base mix.

The Rays and Dodgers each have an abundance of infielders, but neither team is shy about acquiring multi-positional depth, and might also prefer Schoop over less-experienced roster options.  Schoop could serve as a right-handed hitting complement to lefty swingers Ji-Man Choi and Brandon Lowe at first base and second base in Tampa, while L.A. could see Schoop’s addition as a way of freeing Chris Taylor to be deployed all over the diamond.

Sticking with the NL West, Schoop might be a better match with the Padres, who have left-handed hitters at first and second base in Eric Hosmer and Jake Cronenworth.  Schoop would very likely see more time at first base in this scenario, as Hosmer has struggled after a strong 2020 season.

The Phillies might have an infield opening with Alec Bohm sidelined by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, and Bohm has also struggled in his first full MLB season.  Jean Segura could be moved back to third base and Schoop installed at second, if Bohm needs a while to recover or if the Phils simply want to reduce his playing time for a more reliable veteran in Schoop.  The long history between Tigers GM Al Avila and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski could also help facilitate trade talks.

The Best Fits On Contending Teams?

No team has gotten less (by bWAR) from the first base position than the Red Sox, and Boston’s options have been further thinned since Marwin Gonzalez may begin the second half on the injured list.  Boston would probably prefer a left-handed addition to the lineup, but trading for Schoop is a simple way for the Sox to immediately upgrade what is pretty much the only real weak point in their lineup, and Schoop also provides some additional depth for Christian Arroyo at second base.

Matt Olson obviously has first base more than accounted for in the Oakland lineup, but the Athletics could use Schoop as part of their second base or designated hitter mix.  The A’s have gotten some nice results from the Jed Lowrie/Tony Kemp second base platoon, though Lowrie is always something of an injury risk and Kemp also gets a lot of playing time in the outfield.  Chad Pinder will be gone until well into August due to a hamstring injury, and Mitch Moreland simply hasn’t hit much this season as Oakland’s primary DH.  Schoop’s remaining salary is also manageable enough to fit into the Athletics’ limited budget.

The White Sox have had a vacancy at second base since Nick Madrigal was lost to a season-ending hamstring injury, and Schoop could also spell Jose Abreu at first base and see some time at DH.  While super-utilityman Leury Garcia has been a bright spot filling in at second, Schoop is a more proven option for a team that has serious postseason aspirations.  Chicago has already been linked to the likes of Trevor Story, Adam Frazier, and Eduardo Escobar in trade rumors, so the Sox clearly view the infield as a priority.  One obstacle — the Tigers and White Sox almost never make trades, with just a single swap between the two clubs since 1989.

The Rangers’ Unexpected All-Star

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The Rangers will have three representatives at tonight’s All-Star Game. Joey Gallo has been there before, and the slugger’s rare combination of light-tower power and athleticism could earn him a few more nominations before the end of his career. Kyle Gibson’s dominance this season has been surprising, but he’s an eight-year veteran with a generally solid track record. Few would’ve projected him to be an All-Star entering the season, particularly coming off a down 2020, but he was the team’s Opening Day starter. It wasn’t crazy to think he’d have a bounceback year.

Adolis García making the All-Star Game would’ve been inconceivable three months ago. He wasn’t even on the Rangers roster to start the year, having been designated for assignment so they could sign Mike Foltynewicz. In February, all twenty-nine other clubs were offered the opportunity to add García for nothing more than a 40-man roster spot and the standard $50K waiver fee. Each one passed. So García reported to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and began the year at the alternate training site.

In retrospect, each team made an error in judgment in not putting in a claim for García (as did the Rangers for designating him in the first place). It’s hard to assign too much blame around the league, though. At the time of his designation, García was soon to turn 28 years old with all of 24 major league plate appearances under his belt. An obvious combination of power and speed had made him a fairly well-regarded prospect in Cuba and in his days in the Cardinals system, but scouting reports also came with question marks about his plate approach. His 2019 season in the minors did him no favors in that regard; García popped 32 homers and swiped 14 bags, but he also reached base at just a .301 clip and posted extremely concerning strikeout and walk rates (30.1% and 4.2%, respectively).

Given his first extended big league run after being re-selected in mid-April, García has continued to actualize his physical tools at the highest level. The right-handed hitting outfielder is surprisingly tied for eighth in the majors with 22 home runs this season. He’s sporting an impressive .270/.312/.527 line across 333 plate appearances. He leads all rookie position players in FanGraphs WAR and looks to be the midseason favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

It’s an open question whether García can continue to succeed at this level. His MLB strikeout and walk rates this season (30.6% and 4.8%) are eerily similar to those he posted during his last Triple-A campaign. He’s frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and his 17.5% swinging strike rate is ninth-highest among the 231 hitters with 200+ plate appearances.

There’s still some chance García’s aggressiveness undercuts his production moving forward. Some players have enough power and athleticism to succeed in spite of a poor approach. It’s possible García’s that kind of talent, but he’ll need more than half a season of great play to cement himself within that rare group.

Whether or not García’s performance takes a step back in the second half, there’s no taking away what he’s accomplished to this point. To earn an All-Star selection just five months after clearing waivers is an incredible achievement. Among the players whose talents will be on display tonight, García’s had arguably the most meteoric rise.

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