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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By | at November 12, 2020 10:10pm CDT

Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez‘s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

By | at November 12, 2020 8:41am CDT

With a familiar face back in the manager’s chair, the Red Sox are looking to rebound from a disastrous last-place finish in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, SP: $115MM through 2024 ($20MM club/vesting option for 2025; Sale can opt out of contract after the 2022 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $100MM through 2025 (plus $20MM club/vesting option for 2026)
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $38.75MM through 2022 (could become mutual options if Martinez suffers a Lisfranc-related injury to his right foot)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $34MM through 2022
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $12MM through 2021
  • Andrew Benintendi, OF: $6.6MM through 2021
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $6.5MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)

Other Obligations

  • $32MM to the Dodgers through the 2022 season to cover a portion of David Price‘s salary

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Despite months of speculation that Alex Cora would eventually return to the Red Sox, the team at least created the perception of due diligence in searching for a new manager, with at least eight other candidates considered for the position.  Of course, Cora now returns to the job with the baggage of his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which led to his January firing in Boston and his subsequent league-issued suspension for the 2020 season.

Regardless of whether Cora’s return was always in the cards, the end result is the same — the manager of Boston’s 2018 World Series team has now been tasked with getting the Sox back on track.  With the obvious caveat of the 60-game schedule, Boston’s .400 winning percentage (24-36) was the lowest since the club’s .383 mark (62-100) in 1965, representing a drastic fall for a team just two years removed from a championship.

It was expected that 2020 would be a transition year for the Red Sox, considering last February’s trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.  That blockbuster deal ensured that the Sox would duck under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020, thus avoiding the escalating tax bill that came with three consecutive years of overages, and also ensuring that the Red Sox would pay only the “first-timer” tax rate if they were to exceed the $210MM threshold in 2021.

When the Sox last reset their luxury tax bill in 2017, they responded by exceeding the threshold again in 2018, largely due to signing J.D. Martinez as the final piece of their World Series puzzle.  Even before the pandemic sliced into every team’s revenues, however, it didn’t seem likely that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was going to immediately launch a similar CBT-busting spending spree this winter.  If Boston’s plan going forward is to spend big but not to excess, the front office will have plenty of room to operate, as the Red Sox have a little under $161MM (well shy of $210MM) on the books for 2021.

“I don’t like ruling us out on anybody,” Bloom recently said in regards to shopping at the very top of the free agent market.  Boston’s biggest needs also overlap with some of the winter’s biggest available names.  George Springer would more than replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field.  DJ LeMahieu would turn second base from a weak spot to a strength.  Trevor Bauer would instantly upgrade a woeful rotation.  It remains to be seen how ardently the Sox will pursue any of this trio, or if they’ll instead look to spread their money around for less-expensive free agents or higher-priced players who may be available in trades.

Let’s begin with the pitching staff that was ravaged by injuries in 2020.  Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery last March and will miss at least a couple of months at the start of the season.  Eduardo Rodriguez thankfully seems to be on pace to return after missing all of last season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis that led to myocarditis, but it’s hard to call the southpaw anything other than a question mark until he is back on the mound.  With Rodriguez hopefully ready for Opening Day, he and Nathan Eovaldi will headline a rotation mix that currently looks to include Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza, or Kyle Hart.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of room for at least one and probably two proven starters to be added.  We’ve already seen some noteworthy early movement within the pitching market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers from the Mets and Giants, respectively, and Robbie Ray re-signed with the Blue Jays.  Beyond those names who have already left the board, a case could be made for the Red Sox to pursue just about any free agent arm.

Veterans Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana or Masahiro Tanaka could bring some stability, as odd as it would be to see Tanaka pitching on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry.   Corey Kluber or James Paxton could be had at relative bargain prices given their injury-marred 2020 seasons, or Taijuan Walker or Garrett Richards could be pursued after their bounce-back campaigns.  If the Red Sox want to add a veteran to just eat some innings, they could turn to old friends Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, or Martin Perez.  Boston declined its $6.85MM club option on Perez, perhaps a bit of a surprise considering their need for pitching, but Perez posted some pretty middling numbers in 2020.

Bauer gets his own section, as the Red Sox’ hiring of Bloom likely pushes the club toward a more analytical approach that the right-hander desires.  With so much uncertainty in the rotation, one could even argue the Sox should be willing to let Bauer try pitching every fourth day — another item on his free-agent wish list.  Still, this seems like a long shot.  Bauer is more likely to sign with a team that seems closer to winning in 2021, and given his past criticism of the Astros, he might not be all that eager to play under Cora.

The bullpen was also a big problem area and might yet face an overhaul.  With teams expected to be more aggressive than ever in non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if any of Barnes, Brasier, Weber, or Brice were non-tendered.  It’s indicative of the state of the 2020 offseason that even generally solid relievers like Barnes or Brasier are lacking in job security.

If Bloom’s time with the Rays tells us anything about the approach he’ll take with the relief market in Boston, he’ll eschew going after bigger names like Liam Hendriks and the lucrative multi-year deals required to land top-of-the-market relievers.  The market should have plenty of short-term options available — former Rays Kirby Yates, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger among them, not that Bloom will necessarily be predisposed to look at former Tampa Bay arms.  The Red Sox could also explore a reunion with Collin McHugh, who signed with the club last March but didn’t pitch after some lingering elbow problems led McHugh to opt out of the season.

It can’t be overstated just how much Boston’s pitching sunk their season, as the Red Sox lineup was a lot more solid than one would expect for a last-place team.  That was despite poor seasons from Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, and the Sox are counting on both to hit closer to their usual form next year.

Martinez will again be the regular DH while Benintendi will have a starting outfield job, though the position is to be determined.  With Bradley possibly leaving, either Benintendi or Alex Verdugo could be tabbed to take over in center field, or the Sox could take a more fluid approach to their lineup and have the two alternate between center field and a corner spot based on matchups.  With Michael Chavis, Yairo Munoz, and Martinez all able to chip in for corner outfield duty in a pinch and prospect Jarren Duran projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2021, the Sox have some flexibility in whatever they decide to do with their outfield.

That decision could simply be to re-sign Bradley.  The Sox have already discussed a new contract for the former Gold Glover, though they’ll have competition since Bradley coupled his strong defense with an above-average offensive year in 2020.

Elsewhere around the diamond, shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), catcher (Christian Vazquez), third base (Rafael Devers), and first base (impressive rookie Bobby Dalbec) have most of the positions spoken for, but there has been some speculation that Devers’ defensive struggles could lead to a position swap with Dalbec.  Since the Red Sox are a bit thin on left-handed bats, nobody would be surprised if Mitch Moreland was brought back into the fold in his old part-time first base role.  Munoz was used exclusively as an outfielder last year but has infield experience, so he’ll be competing for bench/utility infield duty with Christian Arroyo, Tzu-Wei Lin, prospect C.J. Chatham, or maybe a new face or two signed to a minor league contract.

That leaves second base as the glaring weak link.  The Red Sox liked what they saw in Arroyo last year and it seems too early to give up on Chavis, so the backup plan could be to use these two and Munoz at the position and see what develops.  However, second base is also the most obvious spot for an external solution, especially since some solid options exist in free agency.  Beyond LeMahieu as the biggest get, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are available.  Since star prospect Jeter Downs (whose potential debut in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out) might eventually end up as the second baseman of the future, Boston would probably prefer to seek out shorter-term rather than longer-term contracts for any second baseman they might pursue.

If Bloom’s first season running the front office was marked by cost-cutting and roster churn, this offseason might be our first chance to see how plans to run the Red Sox under more “normal” circumstances — as normal as can be, of course, considering the pandemic’s influence and all of the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season.  Don’t count on an all-in push, but if 2020 was all of the rebuilding and step backwards that ownership was willing to take, the Sox could be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams.

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Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By | at November 10, 2020 8:20pm CDT

After earning a third straight playoff berth, the Athletics are in for an offseason of change. Longtime front office head Billy Beane might be on his way out after two-plus decades of success, while the roster could lose a handful of key free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team, but this offseason could be especially difficult in the wake of a pandemic-shortened year. The timing is terrible for an Oakland club that’s loaded with noteworthy free agents, including in its middle infield. Marcus Semien has been the A’s primary shortstop since 2015, while they acquired second baseman Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. La Stella made a wonderful impression on the organization during his short time there, but whether the team will make a serious effort to re-sign him is unknown.

With Semien and La Stella potentially on the way out, there’s no greater need for the A’s than in their middle infield. They already opted against giving Semien a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer off a somewhat disappointing season, leaving him unfettered heading into free agency. The A’s have made it clear that they hope to retain Semien, but it’s hard to imagine them outbidding the rest of the field. If Semien exits, where would that leave Oakland? The club could plug in Chad Pinder, but he has minimal major league experience at shortstop, and it isn’t likely to spend enough to sign Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons in free agency. Similarly, a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story looks improbable. They might be a suitor for Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old who’s a candidate for a reasonably priced contract over the long haul. Otherwise, the A’s may be looking at someone like Freddy Galvis, who would only be a Band-Aid at the position.

The A’s love La Stella at the keystone. Again, though, are they going to spend to sign him? La Stella shouldn’t cost that much (something in the two-year, $14MM range sounds realistic). But if the A’s don’t retain La Stella, they’ll have some other options in free agency, including Galvis, Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. That isn’t the most exciting bunch, but most or all of them should be within the A’s price range, and at least some look like passable starters. Of course, the A’s do have Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse in the fold if they decide to stick with options who are already under team control.

Aside from potentially the middle infield, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll be all that busy on the position player front this offseason. The Matts (third baseman Chapman and first baseman Olson) have their spots locked up, as do catcher Sean Murphy and designated hitter Khris Davis. The outfield could lose Robbie Grossman to free agency, but Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown are still in place.

Turning to the pitching side, Oakland is going to have to make moves, as it may see a few veteran hurlers depart. The rotation could say goodbye to free agents Mike Fiers and Mike Minor, though four-fifths of it does look set with Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas staying in the mix. That still leaves one open spot, which could go to prized prospect A.J. Puk if he battles back from a couple years of arm problems (including left shoulder surgery in September). Otherwise, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian may be the A’s most realistic picks from within the organization.

Fortunately for Oakland, if it decides to search for a starter from outside, it will have several affordable choices. Free agency is loaded with veterans who should sign short-term deals, including Fiers, Minor, Cole Hamels, Mike Leake, and ex-Athletics Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Brett Anderson. It’s a long list that extends well beyond those names. On the trade front, Lance Lynn (Rangers) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) are among possibilities the A’s could fit in from a financial standpoint.

While most spots in the A’s rotation are spoken for, the bullpen is facing a great deal of uncertainty at the outset of the offseason. Closer Liam Hendriks was one of the premier relievers in the league from 2019-20, but he’s a free agent. Oakland didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so he figures to walk away without the team getting any compensation. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria and T.J. McFarland are alongside Hendriks on the open market. That quartet gave Oakland 90 innings in 2020, and the only member who recorded below-average numbers was McFarland. It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season still has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain). It’s also not out of the realm of possibility they’ll re-sign any of Petit, Soria or McFarland, who aren’t going to command big deals on the open market, or add at least one of the many available relievers in free agency. Even Puk could slide into a prominent bullpen role next year if he’s healthy and doesn’t secure a rotation spot.

This isn’t going to be the most thrilling offseason for the A’s, whose front office and roster could combine to lose a few important figures. The A’s have consistently been in the hunt in recent years despite their small budget, though, and there is still quite a bit of talent on hand for the reigning AL West champions. However, Beane (if he doesn’t go elsewhere) and general manager David Forst may have to pull off some shrewd moves in the coming months to keep Oakland at the head of its division in 2021.

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Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

By | at November 10, 2020 8:17am CDT

A potentially intriguing offseason awaits the Giants, who are positioned to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams depending on how they approach their long-term spending.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $43MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $27MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Buster Posey, C: $24.4MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $16MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2021
  • Wilmer Flores, INF: $3.25MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent his first two seasons trying to work around the Giants’ long list of guaranteed contracts, but the light can be seen at the end of this financial tunnel.  Evan Longoria is the only player on the books beyond the 2021 season, providing the Giants with quite a bit of room to maneuver going forward and giving them an advantage in an offseason where most teams will limit their spending.

The question, of course, is whether Zaidi will pursue bigger-scale moves this winter or next.  Other than simply acknowledging how payroll “flexibility….will certainly be helpful to us in the current marketplace,” Zaidi hasn’t made any bold statements about his offseason plans, as one might expect.  The Giants suffered revenue losses themselves, and a full-bore splurge of major signings and trades for expensive players might not yet be feasible for the team, nor does such a tactic seem to fit Zaidi’s M.O. for roster construction.

There’s also the matter of the big contracts still on the roster for the coming season, but these deals aren’t quite as onerous as they seemed even a year ago.  Brandon Crawford rebounded nicely from a mediocre 2019 season.  Brandon Belt was quietly one of the better hitters in baseball, ranking fifth among all MLB hitters with a 173 wRC+ (min. 170 plate appearances).  Even Longoria still provided his customary strong third base defense despite a below-average offensive year, though his Statcast metrics indicate that Longoria may have been one of the league’s unluckier hitters.

Beyond these veteran contributions, San Francisco also benefited from continued brilliance from the more unheralded members of its roster.  Maybe Zaidi doesn’t need to spend big in free agency if his front office’s continual flurry of seemingly low-level roster moves keeps finding the likes of MVP candidate Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, or Darin Ruf.

The result is a team that suddenly looks pretty set in terms of position players, prompting Zaidi to suggest he’ll focus primarily on “complementary” position players.  Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Yastrzemski will patrol the outfield with Ruf and Austin Slater as the first choices for platoon/bench duty.  Longoria, Crawford, Solano, and Belt hold down the regular infield slots with Wilmer Flores getting a lot of action at first or second base (or at DH, if the position exists for NL teams in 2021) and Ruf probably also in the first base mix.

While Solano, Flores, and even Dubon offer some positional versatility, needs might include a proper utility infielder who could be a feasible shortstop option if Crawford was injured.  Daniel Robertson performed pretty well in his limited time as a Giant, and though that might not be enough for San Francisco to tender him a contract, the team could explore re-signing him on a cheaper deal.  Ideally, the Giants would probably prefer to add a left-handed hitter since they’re already heavy on righty bats.

Catcher isn’t necessarily a question mark in terms of personnel, but it’s definitely the biggest unknown in terms of what the Giants can expect.  After undergoing hip surgery late in the 2018 season, Buster Posey didn’t look right for much of 2019 and then opted out of playing in 2020.  It’s anyone’s guess as to what the former NL MVP can produce as he heads into his age-34 season.

Posey projects as the starting catcher while star prospect Joey Bart is likely to start 2021 in the minor leagues to get more seasoning after struggling in his first taste of MLB competition.  Zaidi implied that the team could look to add a veteran backup for Posey while Bart gets some Triple-A time, or could turn to internal options like Chadwick Tromp or Aramis Garcia (who is returning from a hip surgery of his own).

If the Giants have plenty to work with around the diamond, the opposite is true in the starting rotation.  Johnny Cueto was inconsistent in his first full season back after Tommy John surgery.  Tyler Beede will be back after missing a season of his own due to TJ surgery, and Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson will return as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation types.

Beyond that quartet, there isn’t much depth, experienced or otherwise.  Kevin Gausman, Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija are all free agents, leaving some major holes to fill and some major innings to replace.  Smyly and Cahill were limited by injuries but pitched well when healthy, with Smyly working mostly as a traditional starter and Cahill pitching as both a starter and as a reliever.

Zaidi has already said that the Giants are making a “priority” of re-signing Gausman and Smyly, and the first step in that direction was taken when San Francisco issued Gausman a qualifying offer.  If Gausman simply accepts, the Giants will have him back on a one-year, $18.9MM contract, though if the team pursues a multi-year contract, the 2021 payroll would take less of a hit.  This could be something of a replay of Jose Abreu and the White Sox last winter, when Abreu accepted the QO but then worked out an extension with the team after the fact.

The fact that the Giants are willing to pay Gausman $18.9MM even for one season is indicative of a few things.  It speaks to the team’s need for pitching, naturally, and also to how well Gausman pitched in his first year in San Francisco.  In the larger picture, it hints that the Giants may indeed be willing and able to spend this offseason; if Gausman rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then that theoretically leaves at least $18.9MM that the Giants will have to direct in some fashion towards the roster.

Those funds could be split up among multiple players rather than a single name.  (For example, the total price tag on Gausman, Smyly, Anderson, and Cahill last offseason didn’t even total $18.9MM.)  Whether Gausman re-signs or not, expect the Giants to extend low-cost, one-year contracts to a veteran hurler or two.

But, let’s think a bit bigger.  Looking at the free-agent pitching market, Trevor Bauer is the clear top option.  His stated preference for a team that is both analytically-inclined and willing to let him pitch every fourth day could make him a fit in San Francisco, as Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler have both shown that they’re ready to think outside the box.  Bauer has walked back his previous declarations about only seeking one-year contracts, but the Giants have the payroll space to accommodate both a deal for just 2021 (Samardzija and Zack Cozart‘s expiring contracts represent over $30MM coming off the books) or for multiple seasons.

Marcus Stroman is also likely to score a big multi-year contract (though Stroman also has a QO decision to make and he didn’t pitch in 2020 after opting out of the season), but MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents doesn’t project any other starter to earn more than $39MM, with Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi both hitting that threshold on three-year deals.  Could the Giants hedge their bets slightly by making a Tanaka/Odorizzi-esque signing that would provide the rotation with a clear upgrade, yet still not represent a truly bank-breaking investment?

Going to the other side of the pitching department, the Giants plan to add at least one veteran reliever, so they could direct some funds towards bolstering the pen.  GM Scott Harris recently indicated that the club would prefer to develop a closer rather than sign one, but the Giants have the money to pursue a Liam Hendriks or a Brad Hand if they wish.  The Indians’ recent decision to waive Hand (and the subsequent decision of the other 29 teams to not claim him) suggests that there might not be much appetite for spending on relief pitching this winter, so San Francisco could gain an edge on the market by offering relievers contracts even slightly closer to what they would expect to receive in a more normal offseason environment.

Despite ostensibly being in a mini-rebuild over Zaidi’s two seasons, the team has been decently competitive.  The 2020 Giants fell just one game shy of reaching the postseason.  Provided that the lineup keeps hitting as it did last season, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Giants are a pitcher or two away from making some noise in October in 2021.  The offseason possibilities are just about endless for Zaidi, Harris and company….depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll in this particular winter.  Arguments can be made for going big or going small.  The likeliest course could lie in the middle — taking legitimate steps toward emerging as a contender without quickly bogging themselves down with another slate of untenable long-term contracts.

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By | at November 9, 2020 9:40am CDT

With an enviable group of high-end prospects fast approaching the Majors, we could see the Mariners begin to add some pieces in a shift back to a win-now mindset.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $29MM through 2023
  • Evan White, 1B: $22.7MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 option; contract also contains options for 2027, 2028)
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $18MM through 2021
  • Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $15MM through 2021 (club must decide on four-year, $56MM extension after 2021; Kikuchi can otherwise exercise $13MM player option)
  • Kendall Graveman, RHP: $1.25MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.5MM buyout on RHP Kendall Graveman (paid $500K buyout, re-signed Graveman to one-year, $1.25MM deal the next day)

Free Agents

We’re only two years removed from Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto’s pledge to step back and “reimagine” his roster, and the organizational turnaround has been remarkable. The Mariners have gone from one of the game’s oldest teams to one if its youngest, and what was once a barren farm system has been rapidly built into one of the game’s more enviable collections of young talent. Interesting young players have bubbled up to the MLB level, and reinforcements are on the horizon in droves.

It’s a promising enough outlook that Dipoto said following a near-miss of the final Wild Card spot in 2020’s expanded playoff format that he doesn’t believe a postseason bid next year is unrealistic. It’ll take some additions, of course, but the Mariners are surely more focused on whether their young core will take continued steps forward, so we’ll start with a look around the roster.

Former first-rounder Evan White batted just .176/.252/.346 in his debut effort, but he skipped Triple-A entirely en route to the Majors and showed some pop (eight homers) while also securing the first of what is expected to be many Gold Gloves at first base. Shed Long Jr. struggled while playing through a stress fracture in his leg, but he’ll be healthy next year and the Mariners picked up another second base option at the trade deadline in Ty France. Utilityman Dylan Moore turned in a .255/.358/.496 slash and could push for a bigger role. J.P. Crawford remains a work in progress at the plate but joined White in being named an AL Gold Glover. Kyle Seager, the elder statesman at the hot corner, enjoyed a resurgent 2020 season.

The outfield is the area of greatest hope for the M’s, with Kyle Lewis a favorite to be named 2020 Rookie of the Year. The club expects Mitch Haniger back after a grueling series of fluke injuries wiped out most of 2019 and his entire 2020 season. There’s no shortage of options to keep the seat warm in left field until uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic arrives on the scene — which should happen no later than next June. Fellow top prospect Julio Rodriguez won’t be far behind, and the club added well-regarded outfield prospect Taylor Trammell in the same trade that netted France.

Also in that trade, which sent Austin Nola to San Diego, was young catcher Luis Torrens, who impressed in his Mariners debut. Veteran Tom Murphy should be healthy in ’21, giving the club an experience complement. Should either falter, 23-year-old prospect Cal Raleigh is on the cusp of MLB readiness himself.

With all that in mind, the Mariners don’t need to make much of a push to add a bat this winter, although there could certainly be some value plays that present themselves. And if Dipoto is indeed serious about his hope to push for a playoff bid in 2021, it’s fun to think about the Mariners as a dark-horse candidate for a reunion with DH Nelson Cruz. If not him, the M’s certainly look like a viable landing spot for Marcell Ozuna, although lucrative multi-year deals for free agents are something Dipoto has tended to avoid in recent years.

If there’s one place the Mariners will look to add, the bullpen is the best bet. The Mariners already struck a deal to keep Graveman, who struggled as a starter and then hit the IL when a benign bone tumor was discovered in his neck. He returned as a reliever and impressed with a 95 mph sinker that netted him his new deal. Dipoto is on record as saying he wants to add as many as four relievers this winter, although he cautioned that he might not chase marquee names.

Liam Hendriks is the top arm on this winter’s market but could be too lavish an expenditure. Ditto for resurgent closer Trevor Rosenthal and Seattle native Trevor May, although it’s possible that what is expected to be a depressed market for relievers could cause some higher-profile names to fall more into the price range Dipoto had in mind at the time of those comments. He and every other GM passed on Brad Hand at a year and $10MM on waivers, but any of Hand, May, Rosenthal or Blake Treinen makes sense as the primary bullpen splash here. It stands to reason that Dipoto will check in on virtually the entire free-agent bullpen market, and don’t rule out a trade or trades that net some relief help.

In the rotation, the Mariners have already made clear that they plan to continue utilizing a six-man group. Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield more than earned their spots in 2020. Some will raise an eyebrow to see a vote of confidence in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi here, but it should be noted that in addition to a contract that ensures him a spot, he actually pitched better than his ERA would otherwise suggest.

Kikuchi still issued a few too many free passes, but a 47-to-20 K/BB ratio, 0.57 HR/9 and a 52 percent ground-ball rate in 47 innings are all solid. Indeed, he logged a 3.30 FIP and 3.78 xFIP but was done in by a bizarrely low 59.9 percent strand rate. Kikuchi’s heater also ticked upwards markedly in 2020, as did his swinging-strike rate. He looks like a potential breakout candidate in 2021, and his contract alone will ensure he gets a chance to prove it.

Beyond that trio, there’s room for additions here as well. Justin Dunn, acquired alongside Kelenic, is a former top 100 prospect who’s shown flashes of promise but could be better suited for bullpen work. Ljay Newsome and waiver claim Nick Margevicius give Seattle some additional options to start games, and the club has drafted three consecutive big-name college starters with its past three top picks: Logan Gilbert in 2018, George Kirby in 2019 and Emerson Hancock in 2020. All are highly regarded, and Gilbert could debut as soon as 2021.

Still, there’s enough uncertainty in this mix that the Mariners could explore outside additions. Dipoto made clear after trading Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays that he hoped to discuss another reunion with the 28-year-old righty this winter. Our Top 50 free agent rankings contain a bevy of options we expect to sign one- and two-year deals in free agency this year, and it makes sense for the Mariners to go shopping in that general price range.

It’s certainly arguable that they could be poised to make a bigger splash, although we’ve not seen Dipoto make such a move since coming to Seattle. Still, with just $74MM on next year’s books and a middling $7.15MM on the 2022 payroll, the Mariners are as sensible a dark horse as you could pick to make a significant move. They even have the long-term payroll freedom to sign Trevor Bauer if they see fit, although that would obviously still register as a major surprise. More realistically, Marcus Stroman‘s grounder-heavy arsenal would pair well with Seattle’s premium infield defense if the M’s wanted to make a big rotation move.

These are bigger names than Mariners fans should expect, given Dipoto’s track record in Seattle, but the point remains that they could fit just about any contract they want onto the long-term books. That’ll be worth bearing in mind on the trade market, too, and we know that Dipoto is never afraid to jump into that arena.

It’s also interesting to look at the context of the American League West. As the Mariners prepare to emerge from their accelerated rebuild, we see the Rangers looking to pare payroll and striving to get younger (aka — a rebuild). The Astros could lose George Springer, Michael Brantley and others to free agency this winter and will be without Justin Verlander for most or all of the 2021 season. The Angels will reload and take another shot, but they’ve struggled to field a competent pitching staff in support of Mike Trout for years. The A’s look like they’ll be a threat, but in a broad sense, this division isn’t the insurmountable powerhouse it was a few years back when the ‘Stros were running roughshod over a series of clearly inferior clubs.

At the end of the day, none of this means that the Mariners are in line for a major spending spree. However, their overwhelming payroll flexibility gives them the opportunity to take advantage of a market that most free agents will find rather harsh.

At minimum, the Mariners should be able to be more aggressive than their peers on the bullpen arms they deem to be the best of the bunch. And if Dipoto & Co. wish to get more aggressive, a club that only has Gonzales’ $5.75MM salary and White’s $1.4MM salary on the 2022 books should be able to outspend rival teams on bigger-ticket items. It’s never a dull offseason for Jerry Dipoto, but this winter has the potential to be a fun one for Mariners fans.

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2020-21 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

Trade Candidate: Joe Musgrove

By | at November 8, 2020 4:53pm CDT

There are few players more likely to be traded this winter than Joe Musgrove. After putting up the league’s worst record, the Pirates are clearly not in position to immediately contend. That means GM Ben Cherington and the rest of the Pittsburgh front office are likely to be open to offers for most of their veteran players.

It’s not a good time for the Pirates to try to move most of those players, though. Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and Josh Bell all struggled to varying degrees in 2020. Trading any of that trio would be selling low; indeed, the Pirates are expected to first try to work out an extension with Bell this offseason. Unlike most of the Pittsburgh roster, Musgrove is coming off a strong season. He tossed 39.2 innings of 3.86 ERA/3.42 FIP ball. More impressively, Musgrove punched out 33.1% of opposing hitters, a stark improvement over his previous career marks.

Musgrove’s jump in strikeouts and whiffs might be a bit of small sample blip, especially since a brief IL stint for triceps inflammation limited him to eight starts, but he’d carved out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter over the prior couple seasons. Since joining the Pirates in advance of the 2018 season, Musgrove has thrown 325.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA and solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (5.7%) rates. That level of production would appeal to a number of pitching-needy teams.

In an offseason when many teams are expected to cut payroll, Musgrove would also represent a more affordable addition than many of the options available in free agency. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Musgrove to bring in an amount in the $3.2MM-$4.4MM range via arbitration. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next winter before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

The Blue Jays and Pirates reportedly got close to a deal involving Musgrove during the season. It’s possible Toronto revisits those talks again, although they subsequently acquired Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom remain in the fold. Virtually any team looking to contend in the short-term could try to strengthen their rotations by exploring a Musgrove deal. The A’s, Angels, Braves, Phillies and Yankees are among a host of teams who might fit the bill. There hasn’t been any movement on the Musgrove front to this point, but his name figures to be bandied about quite a bit in the coming months.

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MLBTR Poll: Kevin Gausman’s Qualifying Offer Decision

By | at November 8, 2020 11:47am CDT

Kevin Gausman has until November 11 to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer he was issued by the Giants. Should he accept, he’ll return to San Francisco on a one-year, $18.9MM deal. That wouldn’t foreclose the possibility of a multi-year extension with San Francisco, just as José Abreu and the White Sox brokered a three-year contract after Abreu accepted Chicago’s QO last winter. Rejecting the qualifying offer might pave the way for multi-year offers from other clubs, though. Gausman and his representatives have surely been gauging the market the past few days to shape their decision.

There’s a case to be made for Gausman as the second-best starter on the open market. The right-hander pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59.2 innings this past season. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranked eleventh in baseball (minimum 50 innings pitched), topped only by Trevor Bauer‘s 36% among free agents. Gausman finished tenth overall in strikeout minus walk rate and seventh in swinging strike rate. On a per-pitch basis, only Jacob deGrom, Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole generated more whiffs. Gausman truly was among the game’s elite at fooling opposing hitters.

Moreover, he’s also one of the harder-throwing starting pitchers available. Gausman averaged north of 95 MPH on his heater last season, per Brooks Baseball. He got elite results on both the fastball and his signature splitter. Gausman didn’t find a breaking ball he was comfortable using frequently, a problem that has hampered him throughout his career. That didn’t seem to matter, though, as he was highly effective regardless.

Of course, teams aren’t solely factoring in a player’s performance in his platform year. That’s all the more true in a significantly shortened season. Gausman’s only a season removed from posting a 5.72 ERA over 102.1 innings, contributing to the Reds’ decision to non-tender him last winter rather than pay him approximately $10.6MM to return in 2020. Some of the underlying metrics at the time hinted at a potential rebound but it was nevertheless a surprise to see him perform at such a high level this past season. Gausman’s less consistent track record could lead to some trepidation on teams’ parts, particularly since signing him would cost them draft compensation at the very least.

It’s also worth considering whether next winter’s market would present a more favorable environment. Teams aren’t expected to spend aggressively this winter in the wake of massive revenue losses. Next offseason might still have COVID-19 effects, and there’ll be anticipated labor uncertainty with the scheduled expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 (although it’s possible MLB and the MLBPA broker a short-term CBA extension in the wake of the pandemic).

Gausman would be one year older next offseason obviously, but he’ll only turn 30 in January 2021. He’d still be young enough to secure a lofty multi-year deal if he accepts the qualifying offer, then backs up 2020 with another strong season. The CBA prohibits players from being offered multiple qualifying offers in their careers, so Gausman will never have to wrestle with this decision again, no matter what he decides in the coming days.

In our top 50 free agents list, the MLBTR staff predicted Gausman would indeed accept the qualifying offer. We’ll turn things over to the readership with a pair of questions: should Gausman take the qualifying offer, and will he do so?

(poll links for app users)

Should Kevin Gausman Accept The Qualifying Offer?

  • Yes 87% (7,329)
  • No 13% (1,094)

Total votes: 8,423

 

Will Kevin Gausman Accept The Qualifying Offer?

  • Yes 75% (5,045)
  • No 25% (1,670)

Total votes: 6,715

 

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By | at November 5, 2020 11:39am CDT

With a reduced payroll looming and many core pieces entering contract years, will the Cubs finally engineer a shake-up?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16.5MM club option on 1B Anthony Rizzo
  • Declined $25MM club option on SP Jon Lester (paid $10MM buyout)
  • Declined $3.5MM club option on IF Daniel Descalso (paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Though the Cubs won the NL Central in the strange 60-game 2020 season, their season ended in disappointment just as it did in 2018 and 2019.  This time, it was a playoff sweep at the hands of the Marlins.  Most of the Cubs’ offensive core failed to show up in 2020.  Here’s Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein with a quote that might as well have come from the ’18 or ’19 post-mortem press conferences:

Clearly, some change is warranted and necessary.  Simply hoping for a better outcome moving forward doesn’t seem like a thoughtful approach. Embracing some change, even significant change, is warranted.

It’s remarkable how little the Cubs’ group of position players has turned over since they won the World Series in 2016.  Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all still here.  Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber are each now down to one year of control.  Epstein’s contract will be up as well, and 2021 is widely expected to be his last hurrah with the Cubs before Jed Hoyer moves into the top chair in the front office.  Epstein has avoided change for the sake of change, but this is his last chance to shake up the team and try something different.

Any Cubs shakeup will come against the backdrop of financial austerity, with the team having laid off 100-plus employees, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.  And while the pandemic will be the driver of the Cubs’ expected player payroll reduction, it’s not as if they were spending any money in the two previous offseasons.  If you’re looking for potential free-agent targets, focus on players at the bottom of our Top 50 Free Agents list, unless the club dumps salary first.

So once again, the winter is all about trade speculation for Cubs fans.  The problem?  Likely trade candidates Bryant and Schwarber had lousy years with the bat, and Baez was particularly awful.  The samples are small.  Bryant’s 147 plate appearances would have represented less than a quarter of a season for him based on the 671 he averaged from 2015-17.  No one thinks Bryant is now a below-average hitter, given a five-year track record of success before 2020.  From a club standpoint, the down year will at least prevent his arbitration salary from climbing much higher than the $18.6MM he was supposed to earn in a full 2020.  But even though it was just 147 plate appearances, trading Bryant now is still selling low.  At a time when most teams are expected to reduce payroll, who wants to take on roughly $20MM for Bryant while also giving up good players?

I explored specific team matches for Bryant in this post.  You can identify about a half-dozen clubs that could work.  The Cubs are between a rock and a hard place with Bryant, though.  If the Cubs expect Bryant to put up a 4 WAR season in 2021, but no one’s offering much beyond salary relief, they should just keep him.  But if they keep him, they cut off a major avenue for making a significant change to the team.

We should also take a moment to discuss the possibility of the Cubs non-tendering Bryant on December 2nd, which Mooney and Sharma said recently “probably can’t be totally dismissed out of hand because the Cubs have shown us how they are managing the downturn.”  As they wrote, this would be an “embarrassment” and a “worst-case scenario.”  If the Cubs exhaust all trade scenarios and don’t want to commit themselves to Bryant at around $20MM, it is an avenue they could take, however unlikely.  We did just see 29 teams pass on Brad Hand at one year and $10MM.  If no one is willing to take Bryant at his salary, the Cubs’ choice would come down to keeping him or cutting him.  They could also consider cutting Bryant or Schwarber during Spring Training, but that would require at least 30 days termination pay and would put the player in a difficult spot.

Schwarber presents a lesser version of the same dilemma.  He posted a 90 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, but it’s not too hard to picture him returning to the 115-120 range in 2021 as a 28-year-old next year.  If he does, his $7MM salary could be a bargain.  He’s still more replaceable than Bryant, which is why I wouldn’t rule out a non-tender for Schwarber either if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner prior to December 2nd.  I’m not optimistic about the Cubs finding a team willing to give up anything of note for a left fielder/designated hitter, particularly with Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley available in free agency and Eddie Rosario in trade (and possibly being non-tendered himself).  Brantley, a much better contact hitter than Schwarber, would actually be an interesting choice to replace him for the Cubs.  I’m not sure I can see the Cubs unloading Schwarber’s $7MM to potentially sign Brantley for twice as much, however.

With Baez, a contract extension could be more likely than a trade.  He’s a popular, entertaining player with a desire to stay.  I can see fans being disappointed if the Cubs keep Bryant and Schwarber, trade them for an uninspiring return, or non-tender them for nothing.  A Baez extension could restore some goodwill.  Figuring out a fair number during a pandemic for a player coming off a bad year could make an extension difficult for Baez, however.  The Cubs have already extended some goodwill toward face of the franchise Anthony Rizzo, exercising his $16.5MM club option after a 103 wRC+ performance.  It’s hard to picture Rizzo in any other uniform, but a new contract would have to be hammered out to retain him beyond ’21.

The Cubs have several solid building blocks in place through 2023 in Darvish, Hendricks, and Happ.  They’ve got Contreras under control through ’22.  All options will likely be on the table in terms of trades, and these are the players with trade value.  Contreras is coming off a solid year, and getting his age 29-30 seasons would likely be appealing to the runners-up for J.T. Realmuto.  Plus, Contreras won’t cost $20MM+ like Realmuto will.  The Cubs could trim $7MM in payroll if they exchange Contreras for pre-arbitration players.  The Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rays, and Yankees could be interesting trade partners.  If they trade Contreras, the Cubs might be content to plug in Victor Caratini as their starter behind the dish.

Similarly, the Cubs could look to get out of their commitment to Darvish with his value at a high point.  They wouldn’t be able to find a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to replace him, but they could use some of the savings for veteran free agents while also bringing in quality minimum-salary players in the trade.  Considering painful scenarios like these is the reality of the 2021 Cubs.

With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood reaching free agency, the Cubs figure to import at least one starting pitcher this winter and possibly two.  They’ve got Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills slated behind Darvish and Hendricks, but the team clearly needs more.  Interest in a Lester reunion is mutual, though the Cubs may seek more upside than the veteran southpaw can offer.  One possible answer would be to find the pitching equivalent of Bryant or Schwarber – an arbitration eligible player with limited control coming off a down year –  and broker a trade.  Such a deal could be struck prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, particularly in the case of Schwarber.

On the other hand, Epstein spoke about “thread[ing] the needle and improv[ing] in 2021 while also setting ourselves up for the long-term future,” which suggests he’d like prefer to swap contract year players for ones with multiple years of control.  That makes sense in theory, but as I’ve been saying, Bryant and Schwarber don’t seem to have a lot of trade value.  Look at the minimal return the Indians received for a $17.5MM Corey Kluber after a lost 2019 season.  And that was with the Rangers at least having the chance to get two years of Kluber, who had an expensive option for 2021 (that was bought out due to injury).  That’s why trading Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, or Happ might be Epstein’s best way to thread the needle.

The Cubs’ bullpen is also in need of reinforcements.  The pitcher they put in the highest-leverage situations, Jeremy Jeffress, is a free agent.  Much has been made of Craig Kimbrel’s final 14 appearances of the season, in which he posted a 1.42 ERA with a 53.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, and no home runs allowed.  The list of 60+ inning relief seasons from 2015-19 in which a pitcher walked at least 14% of batters faced runs just seven-deep: Brandon Workman, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Steven Brault, Reyes Moronta, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough.  The truth is that if you issue free passes to batters at the rate Kimbrel did in the “good” portion of his 2020 season, you’re walking a tightrope that few have found sustainable.

The Cubs’ most reliable reliever might be Rowan Wick, who has strung together 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball since joining the team in a November 2018 trade.  I can picture Ryan Tepera sticking around, though he walked a career-worst 13.5% of batters faced for the Cubs this year.  The Cubs’ other potential bullpen holdovers seem even more fungible.  I’m not yet convinced in the Cubs’ ability to grab castoff relievers on the cheap, run them through their Pitch Lab, and create an above-average bullpen.  One-year deals should abound for free agent relievers this winter, and the Cubs should set their sights higher than the scrap heap.

Epstein’s legacy in Chicago is secure, and he’s likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day.  But for a big-market, high-payroll team that’s made the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, fans can’t help but feel disappointed with one championship.  In positioning the 2021 Cubs for one last run, Epstein faces one of his greatest challenges.

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Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

By | at November 5, 2020 12:06am CDT

There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate

Looking For A Match In A Kris Bryant Trade

By | at November 4, 2020 7:00pm CDT

As the Cubs look to shake up their offense and trim salary this winter, longtime third baseman Kris Bryant is likely to be on the trading block.  Bryant, drafted second overall in 2013, has one more year of control remaining following the worst season of his career.  Bryant managed just a 76 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances this year, battling a series of injuries.  In the five years prior, Bryant posted a 139 wRC+ and averaged over five wins above replacement per season, though his best production was concentrated at the beginning of his career.

Bryant has spent over 80% of his career defensive innings at third base, and metrics suggest he’s roughly average at the position.  The bulk of his remaining innings have come at the outfield corners.  It’s fair to say that Bryant can probably play all three of these positions capably, but he fits best as a third baseman.

Bryant was set to earn $18.6MM in 2020 before the season was cut short, and he’s arbitration eligible one last time before entering free agency after the 2021 season.  While a small raise looks likely, I expect his ’21 salary to fall short of $20MM.

In at least four different seasons in Bryant’s career, $20MM would have been a bargain.  But in the uncertain climate of the 2020-21 MLB offseason, the list of teams willing to spend that amount on a player coming off a bad year is likely to be short.  With demand low, the Cubs might receive a minimal return in trade this winter.  That could be a reason to keep Bryant for one last run in 2021, or at least hold him until the July trade deadline.

On the other hand, maybe the Cubs really want to reboot their offense this winter, and crave payroll flexibility.  At the least, they’ll listen to offers.  Keep in mind that Bryant is not actually under contract for 2021, and if the Cubs want sheer relief from the prospect of paying him, they could non-tender him on December 2nd and get nothing in return.  That seems unlikely for a player who was a star just a year ago.  As to the shape of a possible trade return, the Cubs probably can’t be too picky.  They could choose a return geared toward winning in 2021, or seek players with multiple years of control remaining.  They could look for players earning the league minimum, or accept someone making millions but still less than Bryant.  They could fill rotation or outfield holes, or just take the best available offer.  With that in mind, let’s dig into possible suitors.

We’ll begin by eliminating the Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, and White Sox.  It seems highly unlikely to me that the Cubs, who are assumed to be trying to win in 2021, would trade Bryant to a division or crosstown rival with the same goal.  We’ll also strike the Orioles and Rangers, who do not seem positioned for a push toward contention in 2021.  We’ll cross off the Pirates for both reasons.

Here’s what we have left.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant And Could Make Room At Third Base

  • Blue Jays: The Jays’ primary third baseman in 2020 was Travis Shaw, and he’s a non-tender candidate.  As GM Ross Atkins put it, “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  Bryant fits the bill.
  • Nationals: Carter Kieboom struggled mightily for the Nats this year, and sliding Bryant in at third base for a year would be an easy fit.
  • Braves: Austin Riley is the Braves’ incumbent at the hot corner, and his career has begun with an 87 wRC+ over 503 plate appearances.  Bryant would fit with GM Alex Anthopoulos’ recent strategy of high-dollar one-year deals for Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna.
  • Dodgers: Replacing free agent Justin Turner with Bryant would be a bold move, but if that’s the Dodgers’ preference it’s a viable option.
  • Tigers: The Tigers don’t seem close enough to contending to acquire a one-year rental like Bryant.  But they could afford him, and primary third baseman Isaac Paredes did not play well this year.  If the Tigers go on a spending spree with an eye on contending in 2021, Bryant could theoretically be a part of that.

Teams That Could Afford Bryant But Would Have To Use Him In An Outfield Corner

  • Astros: The Astros have Alex Bregman locked in at third base, so Bryant would have to spend 2021 mostly playing right field.  It’s not a crazy idea.
  • Giants: Bryant offers more upside than incumbent third baseman Evan Longoria, but Longoria is under contract through 2022.  Bryant would probably have to slot in at left field for the Giants over Alex Dickerson.  It’s not an ideal fit for a team seeking a left-handed-hitting infielder.
  • Marlins: Whether the Marlins could afford Bryant is up for debate, but I think it’s somewhat possible.  They’ve got Brian Anderson at third base, but didn’t get much at the outfield corners in 2020.  JJ Bleday isn’t quite ready, while Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison have Triple-A experience.  Making room for Bryant for one year isn’t out of the question.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox don’t seem primed to go all-in on 2021, and they have Rafael Devers at third base.  But if they do decide to make a push, they could trade or demote Andrew Benintendi and use Bryant in left field.

Teams That Don’t Seem To Have A Spot For Bryant

  • Angels: The Halos have Anthony Rendon at third, Justin Upton in left, and Jo Adell in right.  Upton hasn’t been great the last two seasons, but he’s signed through 2022.  Adell struggled in his 38-game debut and could theoretically be held off for most of 2021, but doing that to accommodate Bryant seems unlikely for a team focused on pitching.
  • Phillies: It’d be fun to see old friends Bryce Harper and Bryant finally unite in Philly.  But the Phils have Alec Bohm slated for third, Andrew McCutchen in left, and Harper in right.  If the NL adds the DH for ’21, then there could be room for Bryant.
  • Mariners: They’ve got Kyle Seager locked in at third base for 2021, and by June should have an outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, and Mitch Haniger in place.  It’s hard to see where Bryant would fit in.
  • Twins: The Twins are set with Josh Donaldson at third base, Eddie Rosario in left field, and Max Kepler in right.  Unloading Rosario to acquire Bryant is technically possible, though.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are in good shape with Gio Urshela at third base, and figure to use Clint Frazier in left field and Aaron Judge in right.
  • Mets: J.D. Davis served as the Mets’ primary third baseman in 2020, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith handled left field.  All of these players, including Bryant, can play multiple positions.  All three Mets players hit well in 2020, and I can’t think of a good reason they would replace an affordable player with Bryant.  Maybe there’s some combination of trades that gets Bryant to the Mets, but it’d be a lot of moving parts.  Or, as with the Phillies, the addition of an NL DH for 2021 could open up a spot.

Teams That Could Find A Spot For Bryant, But Probably Can’t Afford Him

  • Padres: The Padres have pushed their payroll pretty far, but it’s never wise to count out A.J. Preller.  University of San Diego alum Kris Bryant would be a fun addition, but they’re already expected to shop Wil Myers due to his salary.  Perhaps if they succeed on that front, and/or they non-tender Tommy Pham, the Padres could pull it off.
  • Diamondbacks: Demoting Eduardo Escobar and plugging Bryant in at third as their big right-handed bat addition would be intriguing for the Diamondbacks, but with the club looking at a reduced payroll I can’t see how they’d add a $20MM player.
  • Rays: The Rays could find a spot for Bryant, maybe in right field, but with one of the game’s smallest payrolls it’s difficult to picture a $20MM addition.
  • Royals: The Royals don’t have much in the way of contracts, but after you add in their arbitration eligible players, paying for Bryant could be a reach.  They are one team in this bracket that could make it work if they really wanted to.
  • Athletics: The A’s could be aggressive in cuts with other aspects of the team and fit Bryant into an outfield corner, but it doesn’t seem likely.
  • Indians: Bryant would make for a solid corner outfield rental for the Indians, but they’re not going to add Bryant in an offseason where they’re expected to trade Francisco Lindor.
  • Rockies: The Rockies are generally expected to shed payroll, entertaining offers for Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.  I can’t see how Bryant fits there.

In my opinion, the teams best-suited to trade for Bryant are the Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Dodgers, and Astros.  Of course, that’s without knowing the motivations of those clubs and whether they’d offer something the Cubs would consider worthwhile.

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