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The Padres’ Interesting Rotation

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We’ve heard an awful lot of chatter over the years about the Padres trying to acquire premium MLB rotation pieces — Noah Syndergaard, etc. They’ve yet to swing such a deal, but nevertheless have managed to compile rather an interesting slate of starters.

While much of the excitement has remained focused on the future — MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, and more — that tends to obscure the present. There’s an intriguing blend of reasonable expectations and soaring upside in the unit on hand.

Let’s start with a few projections …

The composite expectations of ZiPS & Steamer present rather a favorable view of the Friars’ starting unit, predicting ~3 WAR performances from Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet. That system likes Paddack a bit more than the other two, due mostly to an expectation that he’ll make three more starts. ZiPS sees Joey Lucchesi as a sturdy 2.5 WAR hurler and likes Zach Davies to deliver in the range of 1.5 WAR. It’s less than enthused about Cal Quantrill as the top depth piece.

PECOTA tells a broadly similar tale of possibilities, but bakes in added padding for the long-term health questions facing Richards and Lamet. The Baseball Prospectus computers are also significantly less optimistic when it comes to the quality of Lucchesi and Davies.

This is a good time to pause and consider the context. Getting ~13 WAR out of a rotation would mean having one of the ten or so best staffs in baseball. In terms of projections, the Fangraphs numbers put the San Diego starting group behind the Dodgers but slightly ahead of the Diamondbacks on paper. 13 is a pretty strong number as mean expectations go. Even with superstar Jacob deGrom, but sans Noah Syndergaard, the Mets sit at a ~15 WAR projection.

Of course, that PECOTA projection hints at the real downside concern here. Both Richards and Lamet returned last year from Tommy John surgery. We’ve seen plenty of hurlers put that procedure in the rearview mirror, but some can run into difficulties — sometimes as other, potentially connected health problems arise — after showing initial promise. (Matt Harvey, anyone?) The hope is to unleash Paddack fully after keeping him on a leash last year, but he’s also a fairly recent TJ recipient.

And what of the other members of the staff? Davies has mostly produced very solid numbers, but he struggled quite a lot in 2018 and his peripherals didn’t excite in 2019. Davies logged a 3.55 ERA last year but FIP (4.56), xFIP (5.20) and SIERA (5.43) were decidedly unimpressed. Lucchesi was steadier in 2019 but doesn’t have as long of a track record. These are solid and useful pitchers, but they’re unlikely to lead the way if the top trio falters.

Depth isn’t necessarily a strong suit, either. Quantrill hasn’t really shown a spark to this stage of his career. Luis Perdomo and Matt Strahm seem likelier to work out in the bullpen. Other 40-man members — Adrian Morejon, Michael Baez, Ronald Bolanos — are quite speculative as immediate-term MLB starters. There are some non-roster players with experience in Jerad Eickhoff (looking to bounce back after washing out with the Phillies), Seth Frankoff (back from a successful KBO stint), Jacob Nix and Brett Kennedy (outrighted after struggling in 2018 debuts with the Pads). But it’s tough to rely much upon that slate of players.

Frankly, though, the reasonably anticipated scenario and the downside scenario aren’t the interesting ones. This is a season in which the Friars face long odds — if indeed it gets underway at all. Upside is where it’s at.

When it comes to ceiling, there’s a lot to like about this staff. Let’s start with Paddack, who faded as he got deep into a personal-high workload of 140 2/3 innings. He has now handled a full season in the majors and can build off of that without restraint. Last year, as a 23-year-old rookie, he pitched to a 3.33 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 26 starts. With further growth, he could blossom into a legitimate #1 starter.

And hang on … are we underestimating Richards and Lamet? The former didn’t exactly return to top form in the results department late in 2019, but the fact he was able to get back to competitive action was quite promising. If he can work anywhere near his career norm (3.60 ERA) he’d be a huge piece for the Pads. The flamethrowing former Angels ace arguably has ceiling beyond that.

Lamet is perhaps even more interesting. He not only was able to make it through 14 starts in 2019, working to a solid 4.07 ERA, but generated an eye-popping 12.9 K/9. Lamet showed bigger velocity (96+ mph average fastball) and swinging-strike ability (14.0% SwStr) than he did in his rookie season.

It isn’t altogether impossible to imagine a three-headed monster forming at the top of this Padres staff … if everything breaks right. Combined with the two other quality starters — not to mention a similarly intriguing relief mix fronted by Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Drew Pomeranz — you can begin to see the possibilities for a pitching-led Padres breakout. This is all the more interesting since we’re looking at a short-season format where depth may not matter to quite the same extent (or, at least, not in quite the same way) as usual.

Is that likely to happen? Not so much. And any hopes of Gore and/or Patino streaking to the majors in 2020 likely went out the window when the coronavirus arrived, eliminating the potential for a typical minor-league season. That robs another upside scenario. Still, the Padres’ rotation is a particularly interesting one to watch … or, it will be if and when we finally get ballgames rolling.

Wilmer’s Tears: The Butterfly Effects Of A Collapsed Trade

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Wilmer Flores cried. It was the eighth inning, and the Mets were trailing the Padres by five runs. The non-waiver trade deadline was 36 hours away, and the only organization he’d ever known had agreed to trade him and teammate Zack Wheeler to the Brewers in exchange for two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old Flores learned of the reported agreement between innings … but he was left in the game to hit in the seventh inning … and to return to the field to play second base in the top half of the eighth.

In a whirlwind span of 15 to 30 minutes, Flores went from being traded to staying put among friends and teammates; the Mets had backed out of the reportedly agreed-upon trade once talks progressed to medical reviews. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that an issue with Gomez’s hip and perhaps some hesitance over Wheeler, who was on the mend from Tommy John surgery at the time, had torpedoed the deal.

Two nights later, with the deadline behind him, Flores pumped his fist as he rounded first base and thumped the Mets logo across his chest as he approached home plate after hitting one of the most emotional walk-off home runs in recent memory. It was the last standing ovation in a day that saw Mets fans rise to their feet to embrace Flores on multiple other occasions. Flores went on to have a fine Mets career, calling Citi Field home up through the 2018 season. He’ll always hold a special place in the hearts of most Mets fans.

The memory of that unusual and emotional scene, however, is only the surface of a much more layered “what if” scenario. If the Mets had gone through with that trade, the ripple effects would’ve radically altered the future of several teams and — in a more roundabout way — perhaps the very fabric of the game.

How so? Let’s examine:

The Mets

Imagine a world where the Mets weren’t issuing statements to the press about their highest-paid position player being injured in a freak wild boar accident. If the Mets had gone through with the Brewers trade, it’s quite possible that Yoenis Cespedes never would’ve played a game for them. The deal bringing Cespedes to Queens was a buzzer-beater just seconds before the deadline — not 48 hours after Flores’ outpouring forever endeared him to the Mets’ fanbase.

Cespedes was an absolute juggernaut for the Amazins down the stretch, fueling their torrid finish to the season with an outstanding .287/.337/.604 with 17 home runs in just 57 regular-season games. Mets fans clamored for the then-Sandy-Alderson-led front office to re-sign the slugger. While he initially looked to be outside their price range, Cespedes didn’t see his market develop the way he’d hoped and ultimately opted for a compromise deal that promised him $75MM over three years but came with opt-outs after years one and two. Following a terrific 2016 season, Cespedes indeed opted out, and the two sides brokered a more concrete four-year, $110MM pact covering the 2017-20 seasons.

But what if the club had acquired Gomez on July 30? Curtis Granderson was productive in right field. Juan Lagares was a world-beating defensive center fielder even if his bat was characteristically flimsy. Michael Cuddyer was still on the roster, and a top prospect named Michael Conforto had made his MLB debut just days earlier, on July 24. With Gomez added to that bunch, would the Mets have gone through with Cespedes trade? You can argue there was still room — put Gomez in center, Cespedes in left and use Lagares off the bench — but the urgency obviously would’ve been lessened and the Mets surely would’ve been more protective of their prospect assets. And without that magical stretch run erased from history and Gomez signed through 2016, the Mets’ motivation to sign Cespedes would’ve likely been wiped out.

Furthermore, with Cespedes then sure to have been traded elsewhere, might the pitcher they traded to Detroit have instead won a Rookie of the Year Award in New York? It’s impossible to say, but dropping Michael Fulmer into the mix of quality Mets arms in place of Wheeler would’ve maintained their enviable stash of arms for a longer time. Fulmer, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey (prior to his regression), Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is clearly a talented enough group on which to build a contending staff. And the “what ifs” only continue if you stop to wonder what precise course Fulmer’s career would’ve taken a different setting.

The Tigers

Speaking of Fulmer, well, Tigers fans wouldn’t be left to wonder whether the club should’ve traded him prior to all of his injury troubles. Fulmer had a masterful rookie season but has since undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, Tommy John surgery and knee surgery. They could’ve pulled the trigger on a trade for him early in his big league tenure, but doing so would’ve meant trading four-plus years of control over the right-hander. Tigers fans can voice frustration with the benefit of hindsight, but trades of quality, established starters with that much club control remaining are of the utmost rarity.

Michael Fulmer

It’s likely that Cespedes would’ve been moved elsewhere. The Astros, Orioles, Giants and Pirates were among the teams on the hunt for outfield upgrades that trade deadline, and then-Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski was committed to a rare sell-off, evidenced not only by the Cespedes swap but the David Price blockbuster with the Blue Jays. If you want to get truly hypothetical, though, let’s say no Cespedes trade materializes. …Would late owner Mike Ilitch still have moved on from Dombrowski shortly after the trade deadline? Would Dombrowski ever have ended up in Boston?

The Brewers

Sayonara, Josh Hader. In this hypothetical world, you were never a Brewer, because Gomez was traded for Wheeler and Flores. Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress surely could’ve formed a potent back-of-the-pen duo while their peaks overlapped, but the three-headed monster that propelled the team to the 2018 NLCS would never have come to be. Hader would’ve been dominating in Houston or elsewhere, depending on whether the Astros traded him. Could a Wheeler-fronted rotation have made up for his absence?

The ripple effect doesn’t stop there. Also coming to Milwaukee in the Astros swap that did happen were Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser. Phillips was flipped for Mike Moustakas in 2018, so without his presence in Milwaukee, who knows whether Moose would’ve been acquired via trade or subsequently re-signed in the winter? Santana’s 30-dinger season in 2017 doesn’t happen, nor do the Brewers eventually trade him for Ben Gamel. Houser, meanwhile, doesn’t show promise of a late-blooming breakout with the ’19 Brewers, for whom he turned in 111 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 9.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 53.4% grounder rate. The Brewers’ 2020 rotation is short another arm in that instance, as Wheeler still would’ve been a free agent, barring an extension.

Of course, the Brew Crew would’ve enjoyed Wheeler’s renaissance since he reemerged from arm troubles. And that brings us to…

The Astros

The craziest part of this entire butterfly effect isn’t that Josh Hader might’ve been closing out games for Houston. In fact, it doesn’t involve Hader or Gomez at all. It’s that the other player traded to the Astros alongside Gomez in exchange for Hader, Phillips, Santana and Houser was none other than right-hander Mike Fiers. Fiers joined the Houston rotation, promptly threw a no-hitter in his fourth outing, made 67 starts for the ’Stros over the next two and a half seasons … and ultimately proved to be the whistleblower who outed a sign-stealing scandal that led to the firing of manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.

Perhaps the Astros were enamored of Fiers enough that they’d have found a way to acquire him from Milwaukee in a different swap. But it’s eminently plausible that had the Wheeler/Flores/Gomez trade between Milwaukee and New York gone through, we’d still have no firm knowledge of the Astros’ nefarious scheme. True, we might’ve had some inkling of wrongdoing; Jeff Passan, after all, reported for Yahoo back in 2017 that two players told him they believed Houston had banged on a trash can to convey signs. Athletics GM David Forst has acknowledged asking the league to investigate the Astros for improper use of technology. But without the smoking gun that was Fiers’ testimony, the league was either unable or unmotivated to bring the scandal to public light.

Peeling the onion back further — imagine if Hader had become every bit as dominant in Houston as he did in Milwaukee. Would the Astros have ever acquired Roberto Osuna to shut down games? Would since-fired assistant GM Brandon Taubman’s belligerent locker room taunting ever have led to his dismissal? Would the Astros have libeled Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein, calling her report of Taubman’s actions “misleading and completely irresponsible” before accusing her of attempting to “fabricate a story where one does not exist”?

To be clear: the Astros’ scandals reflect the indefensible choices of many individuals associated with the organization, for which they’re fully responsible collectively and individually. But the counter-factual scenarios do at least suggest that these matters might have occurred and/or been brought to light in quite different ways.

The Red Sox

Depending on the previous Dombrowski question I raised, who knows what state the front office would be in? We do know, definitively, that without the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal coming to light last fall, Alex Cora would not have been fired as the team’s manager. Ron Roenicke would still be his bench coach.

All that brings us back to…

The Mets

Carlos Beltran’s debut as the Mets’ manager would’ve been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it wouldn’t have been outright wiped out of existence by virtue of his own involvement in the Astros scandal. Luis Rojas would be a quality control coach and not a big league manager.

Whether the Mets would’ve been better off in the long run with Gomez and Fulmer in the organization as opposed to Wheeler, Flores and Cespedes is debatable. Cespedes was again their best hitter in 2016 when the club secured a Wild Card postseason berth, but they were unable to advance beyond that initial round, falling to the Giants. The subsequent four-year deal has been a disaster. Cespedes has been extremely productive when on the field, but he of course hasn’t been on the field much. He’s played 119 games through the first three seasons of that deal and agreed to have his contract restructured this winter after the surreal wild boar injury.

Wheeler didn’t pitch again until 2017 and wasn’t very good that year. But his 2018-19 seasons were strong, as he posted a combined 3.65 ERA in 377 1/3 innings with a strikeout per frame and a total of roughly eight wins above replacement. The Mets didn’t make the postseason either year, though, and they’re left with a draft pick to show for their decision to hang onto him.

Flores hit .272/.317/.409 after the trade-that-wasn’t, taking another 1275 plate appearances as a Met before signing with the D-backs in free agency in the 2018-19 offseason and then inking a two-year deal with the Giant this past winter.

Carlos Gomez

Adding Gomez in 2015 probably wouldn’t have cost the Mets the division — they won the NL East by seven games — but it’d have made things much closer. He’d already seen his 2013-14 All-Star form begin to fade, and his production worsened following his eventual trade to Houston. In 2016, Gomez played so poorly with the Astros that they simply released him in mid-August. A late surge with the Rangers served to remind that Gomez was still talented, so perhaps had he never gone to Houston in the first place, he could’ve remained a solid bat — but he was never going to hit at Cespedes’ level.

Fulmer, meanwhile, would still be controlled by the Mets through at least 2022 — if not 2023 (depending on when they promoted him). Virtually every prominent Mets starter has had Tommy John surgery in recent years (all of deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Matz and now Syndergaard), and it’s likely that Fulmer would’ve still eventually required his own surgery. But the other injuries that have dogged him and the timing of the procedure can’t be known. Marcus Stroman, acquired last July as an advance means of “replacing” Wheeler once it was clear an extension wasn’t happening, might not be a Met. Anthony Kay, traded in that deal, could be projected in the 2020 rotation.

The exact manner in which rosters would’ve been impacted can be speculated upon ad nauseam, but will never be known to any real degree of confidence. It doesn’t seem like the Mets cost themselves any playoff opportunities, but the effects of that near-trade were extremely broad reaching — and it seems certain that without Fiers being traded to Houston, we’d still be lauding the 2017 Astros as the most dominant team in recent history (at least until the shocking news emerged in some other manner).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Clevinger: The One That Got Away From The Halos

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The post-trade-deadline trades of yore can’t happen anymore under baseball’s current rules. That’s a shame in some respects, because the August revocable waiver trade period delivered some doozies over the years. Here’s a story about one of them …

Back in 2014, the Angels were sprinting towards an AL West title and looking to bolster their bullpen. GM Jerry Dipoto had already swung a series of deals: he acquired closer Huston Street, nabbed lefty setup man Joe Thatcher, made a memorable change of scenery deal to get Jason Grilli for Ernesto Frieri, and even took a flier on Rich Hill (who never contributed in Anaheim).

The Street swap — the biggest of these moves — took place two weeks before the trade deadline. Dipoto was understandably still itching to improve a talented roster and ensure that the team was fully loaded for the postseason when an interesting opportunity arose in early August …

Vinnie Pestano

Vinnie Pestano was on the outs with the Indians. He was excellent in 2011 and 2012 but had stumbled in the ensuing two seasons. Still, a glance at his 2014 numbers shows why the Halos perked up when they saw his name scroll across the waiver wire.

Pestano, then 29, had a 13:1 K/BB ratio in nine MLB innings that year — even if he also allowed five earned runs. And in his 30 1/3 Triple-A frames, he owned a 1.78 ERA with 37 strikeouts against a dozen walks. It didn’t hurt that Pestano was earning just $975K and could be controlled through 2017.

The Indians hadn’t put Pestano on revocable waivers with intentions of letting him go for nothing. When the Angels were awarded the claim, they had to work out a deal to bring Pestano over from Cleveland.

It turned out that Dipoto had managed to make the above-noted additions without sacrificing any prospects who ended up turning out to be big losses over the long haul. That wasn’t so with the Pestano move, which cost a little-known prospect by the name of Mike Clevinger.

Mike Clevinger | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

At the time, the 2011 fourth-rounder was on the radar but hardly an elite prospect. He was still in the middle of his first full professional season, having been sidelined for much of 2012-13 owing to Tommy John surgery. And though he had shown quite well at the Class A level to open the 2014 campaign, Clevinger had only managed a 5.37 ERA over his 55 1/3 High-A frames.

Clevinger didn’t exactly hit the ground running with the Cleveland organization, as he struggled through just five more High-A appearances after arriving. He really popped in 2015, when he punished Double-A hitters to the tune of a 2.73 ERA in 158 innings. Still, as the 2016 season approached, the idea of a Jacob deGrom career path was mostly floated because the two hurlers both feature flowing locks.

While he wasn’t then and never would be a top-100 sort of prospect, that was also true of deGrom. And as it turned out, Clevinger has tracked a lot more closely to the Mets star than anyone could’ve seriously predicted.

Clevinger went through some rookie struggles but produced very good results in 2017 and 2018. Last year, he took an ace turn. Though he missed a significant stretch owing to a teres major muscle strain, Clevinger produced monster numbers when healthy. Over 126 innings, he worked to a 2.71 ERA with 12.1 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.

While he suffered some more poor fortune with a meniscus tear this spring, that’s likely not to impact the future (particularly since he’s rehabbing while the season is on hold). Suffice to say that Clevinger is one of the game’s more valuable pitching commodities, as he’s just entering his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons. (He’ll earn $4.1MM.)

Ironically enough, the Angels showed trade interest in Clevinger this spring … with the Indians reportedly responding by asking about elite prospect Jo Adell. The Halos would surely rather not have traded him away in the first place. Pestano did make a dozen strong appearances down the stretch in 2014, with two more in the team’s unsuccessful ALDS appearance, but he washed out in 2015 and hasn’t been seen in the majors since. It’s yet another reminder that sometimes those under-the-radar deals end up being quite important over the long haul.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Robinson Cano May Not Be Done Yet

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Second baseman Robinson Cano is one of the most successful major leaguers of the past couple decades. If you go back to 2005, the season in which he debuted with the Yankees, he ranks sixth out of position players in fWAR (57.7). Only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols have bettered Cano in that category. There’s more than one Hall of Famer in that group. Utley’s the lone second baseman there who was more valuable than Cano, who has slashed .302/.352/.490 (125 wRC+) with 324 home runs over 9,264 plate appearances as a member of the Yanks, Mariners and Mets.

The 37-year-old Cano could hang it up right now and go down as one of the most accomplished second basemen ever. But he has four seasons and $96MM left on the 10-year, $240MM contract he signed with the Mariners entering 2014, so that’s not going to happen. That may be to the chagrin of the Mets, who have gotten surprisingly little from Cano since they landed him in December 2018. He came over as part of a deal that also netted the Mets then-dominant reliever Edwin Diaz (we covered his struggles last week) and cost the team a pair of well-regarded prospects in outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn.

Perhaps the greatest success of Cano’s career has come in New York, but a return to his old stomping grounds didn’t prove beneficial for the eight-time All-Star last season. Rather, Cano endured a subpar, injury-shortened season in Year 1 as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .256/.307/.428 (93 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 0.8 fWAR in 423 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, it was just the second time that Cano posted below-average offensive numbers in a season.

Considering what they gave up for Cano and the amount of money they still owe him, the Mets can only hope last season was an aberration – he was, after all, a great offensive player as recently as 2018 (a PED suspension-shortened campaign, granted). The question now is whether there’s any hope for Cano to bounce back. There just might be. Cano was a far better hitter last year as it went along. He managed a paltry .646 OPS in the first half of the season and then saw that number skyrocket to a much more Cano-like .880 thereafter, albeit over fewer trips to the plate (258 in the first half, 165 in the second). And there wasn’t really anything alarming in Cano’s batted-ball profile – he actually made more hard contact than he has for most of his career, according to FanGraphs. His hard-hit percentage (46.0) ranked in the game’s 87th percentile, per Statcast, which also pegged his average exit velocity (90.8 mph) in the 82nd percentile. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s done, though Cano’s expected weighted on-base average (.328, compared to a real wOBA of .309) fell well shy of his typical output.

Had Cano actually finished with a .328 wOBA in 2019, he’d have been in close company with fellow second basemen such as Adam Frazier, Hanser Alberto and Cesar Hernandez. Nobody there’s a true standout, but they were all around the 2.o-fWAR mark. That’s not the type of production the Mets wanted when they made the Cano trade, but if he’s at least an average player in 2020 (for the sake of our own sanity, let’s assume there will be a season), it could help the club make a return to the playoffs after a three-year drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This Date In Transactions History: From Cleveland To Cincinnati

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We’ve reached the 14-year anniversary of a pivotal Reds-Indians trade that was hardly a headline-grabber at the time. It was on April 7, 2006, that the Reds acquired 24-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips from the Indians for a player to be named later. That player turned into right-hander Jeff Stevens, whom Cincinnati sent to Cleveland in June of that year.

Phillips entered the pro ranks as a high draft selection of the Montreal Expos, who picked him in the second round (No. 57) in 1999. He was later part of a Montreal-Cleveland deal that had a massive impact, as the Expos sent Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Lee Stevens to the Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. Sizemore and Lee became stars in Cleveland, but Phillips didn’t amount to much there in 462 combined plate appearances from 2002-05.

Phillips spent the majority of his final season as a member of the organization with the Indians’ then-Triple-A team in Buffalo, where he put up a .734 on-base plus slugging percentage. Unimpressed, the Indians and former general manager Mark Shapiro soon gave up on Phillips. That proved to be a mistake, at least when you consider what they received for Phillips. Stevens never even pitched for the franchise, instead throwing a combined 37 1/3 innings with the Cubs from 2009-11 after the Indians traded him as part of a deal for utilityman Mark DeRosa (notably, that transaction also saw Chris Archer head to Chicago). While DeRosa was effective for the Indians in ’09, that was his lone season with the club. The team later sent him to to St. Louis in a trade for reliever Chris Perez.

Perez had his moments in Cleveland, but they don’t match up to Phillips’ impact in Cincinnati. “Dat Dude” was a productive Red from the jump and eventually became a franchise icon – someone who was instrumental in breaking their 14-year playoff drought in 2009. The Reds went on to earn two more playoff berths while Phillips was in their uniform. His long tenure with the franchise concluded in February 2017 with a trade to the Braves, but not before Phillips racked up a laundry list of personal accomplishments. As a member of the Reds, Phillips made three All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves and batted .279/.325/.429 with 191 home runs, 194 stolen bases and 28.1 wins above replacement over 6,899 plate appearances. He’s currently eighth in Reds history in games played (1,614) and PA and 10th in hits (1,774), runs scored (877) and total bases (2,722), to name just a few key statistics.

Phillips, now 38 years old, hasn’t played in the majors since 2018. But he’ll always be a part of the Reds’ rich history, and his acquisition was no doubt one of the shining moments of former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky’s stint. It’s also another bit of proof that you shouldn’t sleep on any transaction, no matter how minor it may seem at the time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Prospect Faceoff: May v. Sanchez

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There is no question that Marlins right-hander Sixto Sanchez and Dodgers righty Dustin May are among the most promising pitching prospects in baseball. Outlets such as MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs each rank them as two of the 50 best prospects in the game. The only site that puts much of a gap between the two is FanGraphs, which has May at No. 14 and Sanchez 48th. They’re otherwise neck and neck – MLB.com places Sanchez 22nd and May 23rd, while BA also gives Sanchez a bit of an edge (16th to May’s 20th).

As we continue comparing the two, it’s worth taking a look at their professional careers to this point. Now 22 years old, the 6-foot-6, 180-pound May joined the Dodgers as a third-round pick in 2016. His quality repertoire consisting of a fastball that can reach the upper 90s, a cutter and a curveball has helped him mow down the competition so far. He got to the Triple-A level for the first time last season and thrived over 27 1/3 innings, notching a 2.30 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 60 percent groundball rate. That’s obviously not a large sample of work (just five starts), but it was enough to convince the Dodgers to promote May to the majors on the final day of July.

How much time May will spend with the Dodgers in 2020 (if there is a season) remains to be seen, but the man known as “Gingergaard” made a compelling case that he’s a major league-caliber hurler during his initial MLB action. May totaled 14 appearances (four starts) and logged a 3.63 ERA/2.90 FIP with 8.31 K/9, a stunningly low 1.3 BB/9 and a respectable 44.4 percent grounder rate across 34 2/3 innings. Maybe he won’t realize his potential this year, but May has “All-Star, mid-rotation” upside, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote in February.

The Dominican-born Sanchez, 21, has been a much-needed ray of hope for the Marlins since he joined the franchise in a blockbuster trade in February 2019. Sanchez was the headlining prospect the Marlins received from the division-rival Phillies for star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and continued to boost his stock in his first year with the Miami organization. He carved up the competition during his first try in Double-A, where he recorded a 2.53 ERA/2.69 FIP, struck out almost a hitter per inning, walked fewer than two per nine and induced grounders  at a 47.9 percent clip in 103 frames. Sanchez can throw very hard, even reaching triple digits on occasion, though Longenhagen cautions that his “fastball plays beneath its velocity right now because it has sub-optimal underlying components.” There are also concerns about Sanchez’s injury history, but thanks in part to great secondary offerings and plus command, there’s front-of-the-rotation potential if he stays healthy.

Sanchez and May certainly count as a pair of the most exciting young pitchers in the game. But if you can only take one, which one would you choose? (Poll link for app users)

Trade History: Reds’ Dick Williams

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Dick Williams has spent more than 15 years in the Reds organization, working in a variety of roles on both the business and baseball ops side of the club prior to being named assistant GM in 2014. A year later, Williams was promoted to general manager as former GM Walt Jocketty ascended to president of baseball operations. At the time of the promotions, though, Jocketty made clear that his days as the club’s top decision-maker were numbered, plainly stating that the much younger Williams was being “groomed” for that post.

[Related: Dick Williams discusses his path to a front office in MLBTR’s College Series]

A year later, in December 2016, that became official when Jocketty moved into an advisory role and formally handed baseball operations autonomy over to Williams, who was named president of baseball operations. Let’s take a look at his track record since that promotion…

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

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How do MLBTR readers feel about the work of Williams? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories? We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski and Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

The Cardinals’ Outfield Carousel

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No doubt you’ve heard it said that the Cardinals have gone through quite a few outfielders in recent years. That puts it mildly. The organization is now awaiting the readiness of top prospect Dylan Carlson, with hopes that he’ll not only blossom into a star but bring some long-term stability.

Churning through players isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Every deal is an opportunity, of course. But it’s quite remarkable how much turnover the Cards have had over the past five seasons. Teams play around 1400 innings a year … over seven thousand frames have been played in that span by the St. Louis team, but no single outfielder has come close to appearing in half of them.

Here’s a log of the players who have come and gone (or who remain on hand). They’re ordered by the number of innings played in the outfield, with all statistical accumulations provided for only the seasons in question (2015-19).

Dexter Fowler (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: Signed five-year, $82.5MM free agent contract
  • Output: 2,720 1/3 total OF innings; .233/.335/.410 (97 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Stephen Piscotty (2015-17)

  • Originally acquired: 2012 1st round draft pick
  • Output: 2,588 2/3 total OF innings; .268/.346/.438 (109 OPS+)
  • Signed six-year, $33.5MM extension
  • Outcome: Traded to Athletics for Yairo Munoz, Max Schrock

Tommy Pham (2015-18)

Randal Grichuk (2015-17)

Marcell Ozuna (2018-19)

Harrison Bader (2017-19)

  • Originally acquired: 2015 3rd round draft pick
  • Output: 2,013 total OF innings; .236/.320/.393 (90 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jason Heyward (2015)

Jose Martinez (2016-19)

Matt Holliday (2015-16)

Brandon Moss (2015-16)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Indians for Rob Kaminsky
  • Output: 586 2/3 total OF innings; .231/.311/.466 (106 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Signed with Royals as free agent

Tyler O’Neill (2018-19)

  • Originally acquired: Acquired from Mariners for Marco Gonzales
  • Output: 552 1/3 total OF innings; .258/.307/.454 (101 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Still on roster

Jon Jay (2015)

  • Originally acquired: 2006 2nd round draft pick
  • Output: 496 2/3 total OF innings; .210/.306/.257 (56 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Traded to Padres for Jedd Gyorko and cash

Peter Bourjos (2015)

Jeremy Hazelbaker (2016) –

  • Originally acquired: Signed to minor-league deal as free agent
  • Output: 402 1/3 total OF innings; .235/.295/.480 (104 OPS+)
  • Outcome: Claimed by Diamondbacks

Yairo Munoz (2018-19)

Magneuris Sierra (2017)

Kolten Wong (2016)

  • 106 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Tommy Edman (2019)

  • 82 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster (primarily INF)

Lane Thomas (2019)

  • 81 2/3 total OF innings
  • Still on roster

Randy Arozarena (2019)

Mark Reynolds (2015)

  • 42 total OF innings
  • Departed via free agency

Matt Adams (2017)

Adolis Garcia (2018)

  • 30 1/3 total OF innings
  • Traded to Rangers for cash considerations

Others receiving OF playing time:

Assessing Brodie Van Wagenen’s Trades

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If you’re an MLBTR fan, then you know we’ve recently been asking readers to evaluate the trade histories of various high-ranking executives (or former execs) from around Major League Baseball. We’ve already polled you on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander and ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski.

It’s now time to go to New York and check in on the trades that GM Brodie Van Wagenen, a former agent, has swung since the team persuaded him to switch careers after the 2018 season. Considering he has only been on the job for two years, Van Wagenen’s body of work isn’t particularly large, but it’s one that’s sure to elicit some strong opinions (minor deals omitted; full details at transaction link)…

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

(Poll link for app users)

That Time The Yankees Pursued Craig Kimbrel

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Possessing an excellent closer is one of the many things the Yankees have become known for over the years. There was Dave Righetti, Goose Gossage and Sparky Lyle decades back. And then there was John Wetteland, who was on the mound when the Yankees won the World Series in 1996. He formed a dominant late-game tandem with Mariano Rivera, who soon became the Yankees’ closer and evolved into perhaps the greatest reliever ever – someone who consistently shut opposing offenses down for almost 20 years. Now, the Yankees have yet another game-ending force in Aroldis Chapman, a two-time member of the team since it first acquired him in December 2015. But months before the Yankees swung a trade for Chapman, they went after another of the top closers in history in Craig Kimbrel.

Leading up to the trade deadline on July 31, 2015, the Yankees were said to be among the teams in hottest pursuit of Kimbrel, then a member of the Padres. New York held a six-game lead in the American League East at that point, thanks in part to the wonderful work of relievers Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson, but it wanted yet another bullpen weapon in Kimbrel. Then 27 years old, Kimbrel was fresh off an all-world run with Atlanta and in his first season in San Diego.

The Padres landed Kimbrel the previous offseason with the goal of pushing for contention, but the team instead endured more struggles. That wasn’t the fault of Kimbrel, who enjoyed yet another fine season. Despite interest from teams like the Yankees – who were reportedly unwilling to trade then-prospects Luis Severino, Aaron Judge and Greg Bird for the reliever – Kimbrel wound up spending that entire year with the Padres. They went on to win just 77 games, while the Yankees lost their division lead to the Blue Jays after the deadline and were ultimately knocked out of the wild-card round by the Astros (another team that looked into Kimbrel before the deadline).

The fact that the Kimbrel talks between the Yankees and Padres fell apart turned out to have a major impact on those two teams and more clubs. In November 2015, the Padres found a taker for Kimbrel in the Yankees’ hated rival, the Red Sox, who got him for a prospect package consisting of outfielder Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje and lefty Logan Allen. Nobody from that group has made a significant on-field impact for the Padres (the jury’s out on Guerra, who’s now a reliever), but they did flip Margot for an outstanding bullpen arm in Emilio Pagan this past offseason. Prior to then, the Padres shipped Allen to the Indians last summer as part of a three-team trade that netted them high-end outfield prospect Taylor Trammell.

For their part, it’s fair to say the Red Sox would make the Kimbrel trade again. He was an integral part of their bullpen from 2016-18, all of which were playoff seasons and the last of which ended in the club’s most recent World Series championship. The Red Sox bettered the Yankees in each of those regular seasons with three straight AL East titles, but they elected to let Kimbrel (now a Cub) exit via free agency in 2019.

Speaking of the Cubs, they’re another team that has felt some impact from the Kimbrel non-trade between the Padres and Yankees. Having failed to reel in Kimbrel, the Yankees picked up Chapman from the Reds in December 2015. Chapman didn’t cost the Yankees that much (second baseman Tony Renda and righties Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham) because he was facing domestic violence allegations at the time. He served a 30-game suspension for that to begin the 2016 campaign. Then, with the Yankees not looking like a real threat to compete for a title, they sent Chapman to the Cubs in a deal for Gleyber Torres around that summer’s deadline.

Four years later, Torres is a standout middle infielder and an irreplaceable member of the Yankees’ lineup. He’s missed in Chicago, but Chapman did help them to their first World Series in 108 years a few months after they acquired him. As the saying goes, flags fly forever. Chapman returned to the Yankees in free agency during the ensuing offseason, though. And Kimbrel’s now a member of the Cubs, who signed him to a three-year, $43MM contract that hasn’t gone their way thus far. Where would he and Chapman be right now had the Yankees traded for Kimbrel a half-decade ago? Nobody can say for sure, but it’s one of the many interesting questions to ponder in this what-if scenario.

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