Bo Bichette Resumes Light Jogging
Bo Bichette took a small step forward on Wednesday in his recovery from a left PCL sprain. The star shortstop was seen jogging in the outfield at Yankee Stadium prior to Game 4 of the ALDS, reported Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. It’s the first we’ve heard of on-field running work for Bichette since he went down with the knee injury on September 6. Bannon added that Bichette jogged three times in the outfield for about 50 yards, but still had a noticeable limp when he walked back.
Bichette has been out for just over a month since injuring his knee on a slide against the Yankees. He’d been able to hit in the batting cage, but hadn’t progressed to any sort of running drills until today. Bichette was unsurprisingly left off of Toronto’s ALDS roster. Andres Gimenez has picked up the majority of the starts at shortstop in Bichette’s stead. He’s played short in each of the Blue Jays’ playoff games so far. Ernie Clement also picked up a couple of starts at shortstop in September.
While the progress is encouraging for Bichette, he still has multiple hurdles to clear before making his 2025 postseason debut. He’ll certainly need to shake off the limp before moving to more intense drills. Toronto will likely want to see him field ground balls at shortstop before considering adding him to the playoff roster. The ALCS starts on Sunday, so there isn’t much time for Bichette to get back into playing shape before the next round. The World Series, if the Blue Jays were to advance that far, might be a more reasonable goal for Bichette at this point.
Toronto’s DH situation is somewhat crowded, so the best route for Bichette to make an impact in the playoffs might be off the bench, similar to how the Dodgers used catcher Will Smith as he recovered from a hand fracture. Smith didn’t make an appearance against Cincinnati, but has been able to contribute as a sub in the NLDS against Philadelphia. He scored on Teoscar Hernandez‘s go-ahead home run in Game 1, then knocked in a couple of runs with a single in Game 2. Smith will draw his first start of the postseason in Game 3 on Wednesday.
The knee injury cut short Bichette’s best full season at the plate. He posted a healthy 134 wRC+, his best mark since his brief 46-game stint as a rookie in 2019. Bichette’s .311 batting average ranked second in the league behind only Aaron Judge. The shortstop finished the regular season with 628 plate appearances, his most since 2022. While the power and speed tailed off, Bichette showed the best plate discipline of his career in 2025. He cut his strikeout rate to 14.5%, the first time he’d been below 19% in the big leagues. Bichette’s 6.4% walk rate, while still not great, was his best mark since 2019.
Toronto’s offense hasn’t felt the loss of Bichette so far in the postseason, piling up 29 runs against the Yankees. They lead the league with nine playoff home runs, which is especially impressive considering they’ve only played three games. On an individual level, the results haven’t been as inspiring. Gimenez has been fine, going 3-for-11 with a couple of runs batted in. Glove-first veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen time at second base with Gimenez sliding over to shortstop, but has gone hitless in six at-bats and made an error in Game 3. Addison Barger then had his own defensive miscue after replacing Kiner-Falefa in the eventual loss.
A return in the postseason might ease some concerns for potential Bichette suitors this offseason. He’ll be one of the top free agents on the market heading into 2026, but persistent injury issues might affect the length and dollar amount of his next contract. Calf and finger injuries wrecked Bichette’s 2024 season. He missed time with knee and quad issues in 2023. Getting back to action during this playoff run could be a boost to his value as he looks for a new deal.
Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette Left Off Blue Jays’ ALDS Roster
12:30PM: Manager John Schneider provided Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling (multiple links) and other media with some context on the roster decisions. Beyond the lack of running, Bichette has yet to face higher-velocity or pitches with movement in his cage work. Bassitt wasn’t quite stretched out enough to be ready, whereas Scherzer was omitted because Schneider didn’t like how he matched up with New York specifically; Scherzer would likely have been included had the Red Sox defeated the Yankees in the wild card series.
9:20AM: The Blue Jays announced their official 26-man roster for their AL Division Series matchup with the Yankees that begins today. Toronto will take 13 pitchers and 13 position players into action against New York, with the following breakdown…
Catchers: Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heineman
Infielders: Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Outfielders: Nathan Lukes, Anthony Santander, Davis Schneider, George Springer, Myles Straw, Daulton Varsho
Left-handed pitchers: Justin Bruihl, Mason Fluharty, Eric Lauer, Brendon Little
Right-handed pitchers: Shane Bieber, Seranthony Dominguez, Braydon Fisher, Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, Tommy Nance, Yariel Rodriguez, Louis Varland, Trey Yesavage
The roster notably doesn’t include three players battling injuries (Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Ty France) and one prominent name in Max Scherzer. Omitting Scherzer and Bassitt from the roster means that the Blue Jays seem to be locking into rookie Yesavage to start one game of the series, and then perhaps turning to a bullpen game in Game Four.
It wasn’t long ago that the Jays seemed to have almost a surplus of postseason rotation candidates, between Gausman, Bieber, Scherzer, Bassitt, Lauer, Jose Berrios, and Yesavage waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Toronto moved Lauer into a relief role at the start of September and also tapped Berrios for bullpen work late in the month, though a case of elbow inflammation sidelined Berrios and left his postseason availability up in the air.
Bassitt also hit the 15-day injured list on September 19 due to lower back tightness, but seemed to be on pace to be part of the ALDS roster. It isn’t yet known if Bassitt might’ve had some sort of setback in his ramp-up work, or if perhaps he or the Jays had enough uncertainty over his health that the team didn’t want to take the risk of issuing Bassitt a roster spot. If a player has to be removed from a postseason roster due to injury, the player is ineligible to play in the following series, so it could be that the Blue Jays didn’t want to take the chance of losing Bassitt for the ALCS if the Jays defeat New York.
For Scherzer, his two World Series and 143 career playoff innings didn’t carry as much weight to the Jays as the veteran’s recent form. The right-hander posted a 9.00 ERA over his final six starts and 25 innings in the regular season, and Scherzer only completed six innings in one of those outings. One of those tough starts came against the Yankees on September 7, when Scherzer allowed four runs on three hits and four walks over 4 1/3 innings in a 4-3 New York victory.
Scherzer ended up with a 5.19 ERA over 85 innings in 2025, as he missed most of the first half dealing with injuries. Just prior to his rough final six starts, it seemed like Scherzer was locking into form with a string of five consecutive quality starts and a 2.25 ERA over 32 innings. The Jays signed Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5MM contract last winter in the hopes that he could turn back the clock and provide veteran depth and experience to the rotation, particularly if Toronto happened to advance into the playoffs. While it is possible he could return for the ALCS, Scherzer will be limited to spectator duty for at least the first leg of the Blue Jays’ postseason run.
It isn’t surprising that Bichette isn’t participating, since as of Wednesday, Bichette had yet to start running drills as part of his rehab from a left PCL sprain. Bichette hurt his knee almost exactly a month ago, on an awkward slide into home plate on September 6 in another game against the Yankees. Bichette has been able to take swings in the batting cage, but until he is able to run whatsoever, his status for the rest of the playoffs remains unclear if the Jays manage to advance deeper into October.
Ty France is another noteworthy player left off the roster, as France may still be bothered by the oblique inflammation that has kept him sidelined since September 21. France’s absence will leave the Jays without some right-handed hitting bench depth, and Guerrero is now the only true first baseman on the roster, though naturally Guerrero isn’t expected to leave the lineup at any point in the series.
Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Bassitt, France, Berrios
Winning the AL East allowed the Blue Jays to bypass the wild card round, and get some needed time off before the ALDS begins on Saturday. The longer break created some hope that Bo Bichette (who hasn’t played since September 6 due to a left PCL sprain) could get healthy enough to be part of Toronto’s first postseason roster, yet at the moment it looks like the shortstop won’t be ready.
Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon and other reporters that Bichette has yet to start running as part of his recovery process. Schneider and GM Ross Atkins were both, as Bannon put it, ” vague and cautiously optimistic” about Bichette’s availability, yet it is hard to imagine Bichette being included on the roster if he isn’t yet able to run. Such a lack of mobility would naturally rule out a return to shortstop duty, and even a DH-only or pinch-hitting role seems like a long shot. Despite the importance of Bichette’s bat to Toronto’s lineup, it hurts the Jays’ overall flexibility by devoting a roster spot to someone playing under what would seemingly be severe limitations.
Schneider said that a decision on Bichette’s status won’t be made until tomorrow, and the Blue Jays don’t have to officially announce their ALDS roster until Saturday morning. Some gamesmanship could be at play here just to not tip the Jays’ hand about Bichette to the Red Sox and Yankees’ advance scouts, but for now, the question might be if Bichette will even be available for the ALCS should the Jays advance.
Bichette’s bounce-back season was a huge part of the Blue Jays’ run to the division crown. After an injury-marred down year in 2024, Bichette rebounded to hit .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs over 628 plate appearances this year, with a 134 wRC+ that ranked 20th among all qualified hitters in baseball. Getting Bichette back even in a bat-only capacity as a DH would be welcome news for the Jays, but all this uncertainty over one of their top players is a cloud hanging over the club’s postseason chances.
In a more positive injury update, Chris Bassitt is slated to pitch multiple innings during an intrasquad game today, which will be the final checkpoint towards the right-hander’s availability for the ALDS roster. Bassitt last pitched on September 18, and was then (retroactively) placed on the 15-day injured list the next day due to lower back inflammation. The timing has worked out well enough that the 15-day minimum will expire just prior to Game 1 of the ALDS, and Bassitt is expected to be part of Toronto’s pitching mix.
How the Jays’ pitching plans will shake out is anyone’s guess, beyond the expectation of Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber acting in traditional starting roles. A healthy Bassitt might be viewed as a favorite for another rotation spot, and the Blue Jays are also weighing both ends of the experience spectrum in future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer and rookie Trey Yesavage.
One pitcher who won’t be involved in at least the ALDS roster is Jose Berrios, who went on the 15-day IL on September 25 due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. Initial scans didn’t indicate any structural damage, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that this diagnosis was supported once Berrios got a second opinion. Since Berrios hasn’t started throwing, it is hard to project whether or not he could be available if the Blue Jays make it deeper into October. The Jays had already made the decision to move the longtime starter into a bullpen role a couple of weeks ago, and Berrios likely would’ve continued to work as a reliever during the postseason.
Atkins also had an update on first baseman Ty France, who is “feeling better” and “progressing at a level that he could be a factor for us” in the aftermath of an IL placement due to oblique inflammation. France last played on September 21 and is expected to try and face some live pitching soon, but it remains to be seen if this will come in time for France to be included on the ALDS roster. Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline, France has hit .277/.320/.372 over 103 PA in a Jays uniform, and his right-handed bat could be a counter to Boston and New York’s left-handed pitchers.
The Changing Landscape Of The Offseason Shortstop Market
For much of the 2025 season, it's looked as though Bo Bichette will be the only notable shortstop in free agency -- and it's been plenty fair to debate whether he's a shortstop at all. The 27-year-old has bounced back -- and then some -- at the plate, largely quieting concerns about his anemic performance with the bat in an injury-ruined 2024 season that saw him slash just .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 81 games. But whatever good will Bichette has regained with a resurgent performance in the batter's box has at least partially been offset by a career-worst year with the glove -- and now yet another lower-half injury.
Elsewhere in free agency, what once looked like an otherwise-barren class has now begun to show some potential upside. Narratives surrounding several potential free agents have begun to shift -- enough that it bears taking a lengthier look at what the winter might bring.
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Latest On Bo Bichette’s Knee Injury
Bo Bichette will not return before the start of the postseason, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters this evening (via Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet). However, Schneider said that a recent second evaluation on the shortstop’s sprained left knee was encouraging enough that he could resume baseball activities later in the week.
Bichette suffered the injury a week and a half ago when he collided with Yankees catcher Austin Wells in a play at home plate. Toronto announced the issue as a left knee sprain when they placed him on the injured list last week. Schneider specified last night that it’s a PCL sprain (via Mitch Bannon of The Athletic). Today’s second opinion was viewed as more of a routine follow-up than an indication the team feared a serious injury.
It’s decent news, all things considered, though the Jays have yet to firmly announce that he’ll be ready for the start of the playoffs. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network reported this afternoon that a postseason return remained a possibility. That will clearly be Bichette’s goal. He would return without having logged game reps for three weeks. It’s a suboptimal situation but one the Jays would be happy to live with if it meant getting one of their best hitters back in October.
Bichette’s regular season concludes with a .311/.357/.483 slash across 628 plate appearances. He still leads the majors in hits (181) and doubles (44). He’s 15 knocks up on Bobby Witt Jr., so it’s possible he’ll lead the American League in hits for the third time in his career despite the injury. Bichette also connected on 18 homers with a career-low 14.5% strikeout rate. He’s on track to cash in as he hits free agency going into his age-28 season.
It’s possible he has played his final regular season game in a Jays uniform, though he and the team will hope to finish this year with a long playoff run. It remains to be seen whether he’d be mobile enough to play shortstop next month. “In a perfect world, if he can come back and play short, great,” Schneider said last night (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “We’ll see how this goes. With how he’s moving, it seems to me that hitting will be a little bit in front of everything else. I think we’ll know more tomorrow or the next day, but if we can get his bat back, hell yeah, I’ll take that.”
Bichette’s injury has kicked Andrés Giménez from second base to shortstop. Ernie Clement is playing second regularly, leaving third base to Addison Barger. That’s a better defensive grouping than they had with Bichette up the middle, but Barger’s move to third base leaves Nathan Lukes as the everyday right fielder. Lukes has been a league average hitter overall but is batting .225 with a .238 on-base percentage in September.
If Bichette is able to hit but too injured to take the field, they’d be left to press George Springer into regular right field work. Springer has had a resurgent season at the plate but only started 48 games and logged 411 2/3 innings of outfield work. Toronto also hasn’t closed the door on a late-season comeback from Anthony Santander.
The switch-hitting Santander has been a non-factor in the first season of a five-year deal. He hasn’t played an MLB game since the end of May because of a left shoulder issue but started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Buffalo last week. He’s working as a designated hitter with the Bisons. Santander might be limited to a bench role if he gets back for the playoffs, especially if Bichette is questionable for defense. Even if Santander’s first season in Toronto has been a disaster, Schneider would surely welcome the opportunity to turn to a player who hit 44 home runs last year as a power bat off the bench.
Toronto has a magic number of four to clinch a playoff berth. That should happen by the end of this week. They hold a five-game cushion over the Yankees in the AL East. They’re three games ahead of the Tigers for the AL’s top seed and six games up on the AL West-leading Mariners. Locking down the division would almost certainly ensure they finish as a top two seed and secure a first-round bye. The Division Series begin on October 4.
Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List
3:15pm: There’s no immediate timetable for Bichette’s return. Manager John Schneider tells the Jays beat that Bichette, who first felt discomfort in his shin and knee on Sunday, will rest for the remainder of the week and be reevaluated early next week (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).
2:07pm: The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that shortstop Bo Bichette is headed to the 10-day injured list due to a left knee sprain. The IL placement is retroactive to Sept. 7. Bichette will be eligible to return in eight days, though the team hasn’t provided any sort of timetable just yet. Outfielder Joey Loperfido has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.
Losing the 27-year-old Bichette for any period of time is a potential gut-punch to the first-place Jays, who hold a two-game lead over the Yankees and a three-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. Bichette has not only bounced back from last year’s injury-ruined season — he’s enjoyed one of the most productive seasons of his career. In 628 plate appearances, he’s slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs, 44 doubles, a triple, a 6.4% walk rate (well shy of league average but one of his best marks) and a tiny 14.6% strikeout rate.
Bichette has been particularly hot over the past two months, posting a ridiculous .380/.431/.580 batting line (182 wRC+) with six homers, 23 doubles, an 8% walk rate and an 11.6% strikeout rate in a span of 225 plate appearances.
With Bichette sidelined for at least the next eight games, Ernie Clement and/or Isiah Kiner-Falefa will likely step up and fill the void at shortstop. Clement gets the first shortstop nod tonight, and while he can’t match Bichette’s offense, he’s a superior defender at the position. That’ll free up Addison Barger to play third base more, while Loperfido joins Kiner-Falefa, Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Davis Schneider and Myles Straw among the team’s outfield options. It’ll be Loperfido, Varsho and Lukes tonight (left field to right field, respectively). Springer is hitting leadof in the designated hitter slot.
Beyond the immediate roster and postseason ramifications, the injury is particularly ill-timed for Bichette from a personal standpoint. He’d surely say this talk takes a backseat to team needs and postseason hopes, but Bichette is a free agent at season’s end. His bounceback effort has positioned him as one of the top free agents on the upcoming market. If he’s able to return following a relatively brief stay, this isn’t likely to have any real impact on his earning power at all. But if Bichette requires a notable absence or struggles in his return while dealing with lingering effects from the injury, his health will be a far more prominent question when looking at his free agent market this winter.
Blue Jays Notes: Shapiro, Bichette, Schneider, Springer, Manoah
Mark Shapiro is in the midst of his tenth season as the Blue Jays’ president and CEO, and his current five-year contract is up after the conclusion of the 2025 campaign. Speaking with The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon and other reporters earlier this week, Shapiro didn’t give any updates on any extension talks, or if any negotiations were even ongoing. However, Shapiro firmly stated “I want to remain here, and I can also say that both Edward and Tony have been reciprocal in that desire,” referring to Rogers Communications chairman Edward Rogers and CEO Tony Staffieri.
It is worth noting that when Shapiro’s previous five-year deal expired following the 2020 campaign, a new extension wasn’t reached until January 2021. The Jays’ front office operated more or less normally during this interim period, or as “normally” as could be expected since the pandemic was still a gigantic factor during the 2020-21 offseason (particularly since the Blue Jays couldn’t play in Toronto until the end of July 2021). It would seem like an unofficial agreement was in place for Shapiro’s return and things just weren’t formalized until that January, so if history repeats itself, we might not receive public confirmation of a new contract until some time after the 2025 season is over.
While Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have received plenty of criticism over their decade in charge of the franchise, the fan angst that reached a peak after the Jays’ dismal 2024 season has now been quieted by Toronto’s huge turn-around in 2025. The Blue Jays have the second-best record in baseball and a five-game lead in the AL East as we reach mid-August. Despite postseason appearances in 2020, 2022, and 2023, the Jays haven’t won a playoff game (let alone a series) since reaching the 2016 ALCS in the first year of the Shapiro/Atkins tenure.
Given the Jays’ current success on the field and the franchise-building projects Shapiro has overseen (i.e. major renovations to both Rogers Centre and the Blue Jays’ Spring Training complex) in the last decade, it would certainly seem like the executive is in good standing to receive another contract. The same could be said of John Schneider since the manager is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and while Shapiro deferred comment on any extension talks, he did praise Schneider’s work over his three-plus years leading the dugout.
Likewise, Shapiro didn’t go into detail over any plans to retain impending free agent Bo Bichette, other than to say “I’m confident that, at the right time, we’ll make an effort.” This likely means the Blue Jays will wait until after the season, as Shapiro didn’t want to draw any focus away from Bichette’s on-field efforts. After an injury-marred down year in 2024, Bichette has looked much more like his old self, hitting .294/.336/.463 with 16 homers over 538 plate appearances (for a 122 wRC+).
Speaking of returns to form, George Springer‘s resurgence has been one of the keys to the Jays’ season, and the veteran looks to be close to an activation off the concussion-related injured list. Springer hasn’t played since he was hit in the head by a pitch on July 28, but he has now cleared concussion protocols and returned to action in a minor league rehab game today.
Springer was 1-for-2 with a walk and a double for Triple-A Buffalo, acting as the Bisons’ designated hitter. Postgame, Springer told reporters (including Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News) that he isn’t sure if he’ll remain for another rehab game on Friday, perhaps to play the outfield as the final step in the recovery process.
Things didn’t go as smoothly for Alek Manoah in his first Triple-A rehab game on Wednesday, as the starter allowed three runs on three hits and two walks over 1 2/3 innings and 49 pitches. Bannon writes that the plan was for Manoah to toss 70-75 pitches over as many as five innings, except the outing had to be cut short due to the righty’s struggles.
It has been almost three years since Manoah was a viable force in the Blue Jays’ rotation, as he struggled badly in 2023 and his hopes at a bounce-back year were halted by a Tommy John surgery in June 2024. Over four rehab starts at four different minor league levels, Manoah has an 11.57 ERA and more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in seven total innings.
Until his control or his overall results improve, it is hard to see Manoah being called up for a significant role for a team battling for a division title. A return to the rotation might not be necessary since deadline trade acquisition Shane Bieber is first in line as the proverbial sixth starter, but even bringing Manoah back as a reliever is a risk if he can’t harness his pitches.
MLBTR Podcast: Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More!
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The August Edition of MLBTR’s 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:05)
- The upcoming free agency of Dylan Cease (2:15)
- The upcoming free agency of Brandon Woodruff (5:35)
- The upcoming opt-out of Lucas Giolito (12:50)
- The upcoming opt-out of Edwin Díaz (18:40)
- The upcoming free agency of Bo Bichette (24:25)
- The Red Sox signing Roman Anthony to an extension (31:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Should Tigers fans be nervous? Is the club worse off going into next year? Should they trade Tarik Skubal this winter? (38:55)
- The Mets didn’t trade Mark Vientos at the deadline and Pete Alonso is trending towards opting out. Will the Mets move on from Alonso this time? (51:05)
- The teams that are considering six-man rotations, should they piggyback two of them in one game? (57:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals – listen here
- Megapod Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
- David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images
Bo Bichette’s Earning Power Spectrum
Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published an early Power Rankings looking ahead to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an obvious choice for the top spot and Dylan Cease ended up pretty comfortably in second. The next few entrants were tougher to separate, but Bo Bichette ended up third.
Bichette’s free agency was and is tough to peg. He has a strong track record of success, but his 2024 season was awful. His bat has been strong on the whole, though with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His defense has been passable enough to stick at short, but he’s not great there.
Of the potential top free agents this coming winter, he seemingly has some of the widest error bars. This post will take a look at the spectrum, using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a guide.
As you can see in that screenshot (link for app users), I’ve used the dropdown bars to search for free agent deals for shortstops over the past five years. I’ve then ranked them by the total guarantee on the contract. There are some pretty clear tiers in earning power, so let’s see where Bichette could fit in.
From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons. His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.
The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he’s generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side. Outs Above Average, however, doesn’t like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he’s finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.
Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.
Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains. He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.
Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s despite a slow start. Through the end of April, he still hadn’t hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.
Turning to the Contract Tracker list, at the top is a level that Bichette shouldn’t be able to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM followed by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager got his deal going into his age-28 season, the same age Bichette will be next year. However, Seager was simply better. His power output was fairly close to Bichette’s but with far more walks, leading to a 142 wRC+. His defense was also graded higher.
Seager had 19.8 fWAR at the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette could actually go past that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR right now, but that’s mostly due to Seager’s injuries (most notably, Tommy John surgery). Seager produced that WAR total in just 514 regular season games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 games under his belt. There was some injury risk with Seager but he was far better on a rate basis and that’s what the Rangers paid for.
Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, but his combination of offense, defense and speed gave him a massive ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his final two seasons before free agency, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As mentioned, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.
The next two names on the list are a bit unusual. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as a huge surprise at the time and the deal hasn’t worked out for the Padres so far. In the industry, that one is chalked up to the Friars going a bit wild. Owner Peter Seidler was in poor health and was allowing the front office to spend like never before, seemingly throwing caution to the wind with the knowledge that he didn’t have much time left.
Carlos Correa‘s deal is also an unusual data point. His earning power was initially far higher. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants before they got scared by his physical and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM deal with Correa before they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM deal with the Twins was therefore the product of a fairly unprecedented situation. The unique quartet of vesting options in the deal reflect the odd circumstances and could add millions more to Correa’s bank account.
There’s a case for Bichette to be in the next tier. I’ll circle back to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Each signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM annually. Adames and Swanson got a seventh year, pushing their total guarantees to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story were each capped at six years and $140MM total.
Bichette will be one year younger than everyone in that group, theoretically giving him a bit more earning power. The question will be whether he’s ranked as highly apart from that. Adames is a better defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his career. That latter figure is a bit odd, as he was clearly in positive range before posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 so far as a Giant.
Offensively, he had often been similar to Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 home runs in the latter season. His power remained in 2022 and 2023 but low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in those seasons. He bounced back in 2024 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.
Swanson was always a glove-first shortstop with questions about the bat. Through 2021, he still had a career 88 wRC+. But in 2022, his walk year, he hit 25 home runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Thanks to his excellent defense and 18 stolen bases, he was able to produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above anything Bichette has done, but he had only done it once. Still, it was enough for the Cubs to buy in.
Báez and Story were more erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons but provided enough on defense and the basepaths to be useful. His offense improved as he neared free agency but wasn’t consistent. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the year after. The shortened 2020 season was a disaster, with a wRC+ of 57, before he bounced back to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was almost a six-win player, getting to 5.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. Those were higher than any Bichette season, but he was also well below at times.
Somewhat similarly, Story hit a higher peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 home runs, though playing in Denver during the juiced ball season surely helped him a bit in that regard. Still, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and strong defense led to a six-win season. He also had 2.0 fWAR in the shortened 2020 campaign with similar production. But in his walk year, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he only produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and some concerns about his elbow health knocked him down a bit.
Here is the fWAR total for each in the six seasons leading to free agency, including the shortened 2020 season for all in the name of fairness:
Baez: 21.9 in 782 games
Story: 20.3 in 745 games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 games
Bichette is right in the thick there. As mentioned, Swanson bloomed in his walk year, so it makes sense he would be at the bottom of this six-year list. If Bichette has a typical year for him, he could add another three or four wins and get fairly close to the other shorstops on the list. Factor in some inflation and that he’s a year younger than everyone in that pack and he has a case to earn something around $200MM.
What will also work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear top shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the most recent offseason. Alongside Bichette, the only other potential everyday shortstop this winter would be Ha-Seong Kim. He is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and needs to both recover and play well enough to opt out of the second season of his two-year deal with the Rays. Even in a best-case scenario where that all happens, his earning power would be below a healthy and productive Bichette.
This is all still somewhat hypothetical. As mentioned, Bichette seems to be getting back to his 2021-23 pace this year, but in a fairly small sample. There’s still lots of time for the season to turn on him. If he ends up having more 2024-style struggles, he could certainly fall. Let’s turn to the Contract Tracker again.
These are the top deals for second basemen by average annual value in the past five years (link for app users). This perhaps paints a picture of Bichette’s floor. Given his questionable defense, it’s possible that clubs may view him as someone who’s likely to move to second base fairly soon. And the earning power of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, though that’s an outlier. At the time, the Rangers were five years into a deep rebuild and were eager to speed up the process with aggressive spending.
Gleyber Torres is an interesting comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was once a highly-touted shortstop prospect, but with a better bat than glove. Unlike Bichette, he couldn’t stick at short. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.
His offensive production has been somewhat comparable to Bichette’s on the whole. He went into free agency with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit below Bichette’s typical range. He also had a tepid platform year, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “prove it” deal with the Tigers.
It currently seems unlikely that Bichette would fall quite that far. His career wRC+ of 120 is a few ticks above what Torres brought to the open market last fall. Bichette also has a leg up defensively, as he will be going into free agency as a viable shortstop, at least for the short term.
But a soft finish in 2025 could hamper Bichette. In that scenario, he’d be going into free agency on the heels of two fairly disappointing seasons in a row. That was the situation Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced back that year and went into the open market ahead of his age-28 campaign.
But there were enough question marks from his inconsistency, health and defense that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, well below initial expectations. He earned opt-out chances after each season in that deal but declined the first chance after a good-not-great 2024 season.
Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. Anything from $20MM to $200MM seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.
A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end. The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players. Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.
Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one. If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won’t be a factor for him — yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.
Photo of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…
- a general assessment of the 2025-26 free agent class as a whole (2:55)
- Kyle Tucker‘s free agency (6:25)
- Munetaka Murakami (12:05)
- Dylan Cease (22:50)
- Bo Bichette (34:10)
- Alex Bregman (41:25)
- Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez and Michael King (48:10)
- Cedric Mullins (58:05)
- Ranger Suárez and Jack Flaherty (1:02:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Vlad’s Massive Deal, Extensions for Merrill and Marte, And Quinn Priester Traded – listen here
- Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines – listen here
- What We Learned From The Offseason – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images