Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton
The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington. The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby. In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals. To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.
With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season. Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.
As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation. Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show. Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.
It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action. Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.
Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff. Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option. On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.
Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader. In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30. The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%). While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.
If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results. Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.
Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year. Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.
Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August. Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective. Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.
The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special. However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.
Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM). It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold. The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.
Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020. A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.
The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign. The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.
That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system. MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.
Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season. While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable. The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid. Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.
Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder. Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop. He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.
The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023. The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield
The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.
Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.
Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.
That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”
Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.
While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension
The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.
Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.
That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.
Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.
Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.
Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.
To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.
Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.
Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.
It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.
Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.
Cardinals Expect To Move DeJong, Several Pitchers; O’Neill Unlikely To Be Traded
The Cardinals’ logjam in the outfield has been well-documented by now, but one path to alleviating that situation apparently isn’t under consideration at this time; Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the Cardinals plan to hold onto O’Neill at this year’s deadline.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Cards have made clear to other clubs that they expect to trade starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty as well as shortstop Paul DeJong, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Passan adds Jordan Hicks as a possible trade candidate, and it’s only natural that righty Chris Stratton — another potential free agent — would also be on the block.
Moving the 28-year-old O’Neill at this stage would unequivocally be selling low. The two-time Gold Glove winner and eighth-place finisher in 2021 NL MVP voting has played in just 130 games since Opening Day 2022, batting a paltry (by his standards) .229/.309/.381 in 502 plate appearances along the way. It’s a far cry from O’Neill’s mammoth .286/.352/.560 batting line and 34 homers in 2021.
The Cards control O’Neill through the 2024 season, as he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Woo quotes both O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol in a piece that Cards fans, in particular, will want to read. Broadly speaking, the organization believes an emphasis on routine and collaborative communication can help O’Neill remain on the field more regularly (though that makes the decision to buck his routine by placing him in center field early in the season seem particularly curious).
O’Neill is one of several outfielders vying for playing time in St. Louis. Lars Nootbaar has become entrenched in center field, and top prospect Jordan Walker is currently patrolling right field. O’Neill’s return pushed former top prospect Dylan Carlson to a bench role, and there’s been ample reporting and speculation on the possibility of a Carlson trade looming on the horizon. First baseman/outfielder and utilitymen extraordinaire Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman also factor into the outfield mix — at times being pushed there by Nolan Gorman‘s presence at second base.
The Cards would also be selling low on Carlson in many ways, though the 24-year-old switch-hitter’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current year give him more appeal than O’Neill’s one remaining year. Carlson’s ability to play all three outfield spots — center field, in particular — at a high level could also increase the chances of landing direly needed controllable pitching in a trade. O’Neill certainly isn’t likely to command that type of return on the heels of two injury-plagued seasons; he only just returned from a 60-day IL stint thanks to a back strain.
The likely trades of Montgomery and Flaherty have been discussed ad nauseum by now. Both are free agents at season’s end. Montgomery is the more valuable arm at present, touting a 3.37 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate in 115 innings. He’d be a veritable lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals figure to insist on greater value than a 2024 compensatory pick in return. He’s being $10.01MM in 2023.
Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace in 2019 but has seen several recent seasons ruined by injury. He’s been healthy in ’23, pitching 104 2/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball. His 22.2% strikeout rate is roughly average, but his 11.3% walk rate is a glaring red flag. He’s three years younger than Montgomery and earning roughly half the salary ($5.4MM) in 2023, however.
DeJong’s status as a likely trade target registers as a clear bonus for the Cards. Entering the season, he didn’t even appear like a lock to make the roster, having slashed just .182/.269/.352 in 190 games from 2021-22. But DeJong has enjoyed a rebound season in ’23, hitting .237/.304/.424 (101 wRC+) with his typical brand of plus defense. With about $3.29MM remaining on his contract (plus a $2MM buyout on next year’s $12.5MM option), DeJong now seems affordable and productive enough to be a viable trade candidate — particularly if the Cardinals help out financially in any sense. DeJong’s bat has cooled after a torrid start, but his overall batting line is about league average, he’s shown some power and he’s played good defense.
Both Hicks and Stratton are natural trade candidates, too. Hicks is likely more appealing and costlier to acquire, given his youth and triple-digit heater. The 26-year-old is averaging better than 100 mph on his sinker and has a 1.88 ERA dating back to early May, punching out batters at a gaudy 31.4% of his hitters with an 8.5% walk rate and mammoth 66.7% grounder rate. Stratton, 33 next month, has a 4.38 ERA with better peripheral marks (27% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, 3.01 FIP, 3.37 SIERA).
In any trade, St. Louis is eyeing near-MLB-ready pitching, Passan adds. That, again, is hardly a surprise and has long been speculated upon, given the team’s lack of rotation clarity beyond the current season. Both Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents. Adam Wainwright is retiring. Steven Matz and Matthew Liberatore have struggled.
Many of the names in question wouldn’t fetch a close-to-the-Majors arm in a straight-up swap, but someone like DeJong or Stratton could potentially be packaged with Flaherty or Hicks to improve the Cards’ return. Either Montgomery or certainly Carlson on his own could feasibly fetch immediate but unproven pitching help — Montgomery’s status as a rental notwithstanding. For instance, the Cards themselves traded away a big league-ready arm last summer when they shipped Johan Oviedo to the division-rival Pirates in order to acquire Stratton and Jose Quintana, who was then a rental player. Oviedo has struggled in July but notched a 4.06 ERA through his first 16 starts and is controllable through the 2027 season.
Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Deadline, Rotation, Outfield
The Cardinals approach the trade deadline in an unfamiliar position as sellers. Sitting 12 games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, St. Louis joins the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates as the only National League clubs at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted last week the Cards were turning their attention towards 2024. He expanded upon that in a wide-ranging conversation with the St. Louis beat this afternoon (YouTube link via Charlie Marlow of 590 The Fan). Cards’ fans will want to check out the complete media session.
Mozeliak conceded there wasn’t much hope of avoiding a sell-off of short-term pieces at this stage of the season. “Does performance (over the next two weeks) change our direction? Probably not at this point. Where we are in the standings, it’s going to make it very difficult to change that.” He left open the possibility of something like an eight-game win streak altering the equation but it’s clear the front office anticipates parting with a number of veteran players over the next couple weeks.
The front office leader restated they’re prioritizing trade targets who could help the big league team in the near future. Mozeliak indicated they’d look for players who’d be MLB factors by 2024-25 and was rather blunt about their positional desires.
“We’re going to treat the trading deadline as ‘pitching, pitching, pitching,'” he said. “That’s not to say we’re going to ignore a position player that may be uber-great … but the goal would be to address as much pitching as possible.”
It isn’t hard to understand why. The rotation has been St. Louis’ biggest problem area. Cardinals’ starters entered play Monday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. That’s obviously insufficient to begin with and it’s only likely to thin out over the next few weeks. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents who both seem likely to change uniforms by August 1. Adam Wainwright isn’t a trade candidate but he’s retiring at season’s end.
That’s three vacancies arising before 2024. Only Miles Mikolas seems a lock for next year’s season-opening rotation. Steven Matz is under contract for two more seasons but has bounced between the starting staff and the bullpen this year. Matthew Liberatore has been tagged for a 6.39 ERA over eight MLB starts. Righty Jake Woodford wasn’t much more effective in an early-season rotation look. Former first round draftee Zack Thompson could compete for a ’24 rotation spot but has one MLB start to his name.
While St. Louis will scour the trade market for upper level starting pitching, they’ll also have to dip into free agency next winter. Mozeliak conceded it’d be nearly impossible to envision the Cards not adding a free agent starter and indicated the organization should have enough financial flexibility to attack the open market.
Interestingly, he indicated the organization’s approach to pitching acquisition could be a little different moving forward. St. Louis has prioritized ground-ball pitchers in recent seasons, relying on an excellent infield defense to support a pitch-to-contact staff. That hasn’t worked this year. St. Louis has allowed an MLB-worst .324 batting average on grounders. That’s a huge change from seasons past, one Mozeliak admitted could impact the way the front office approaches things.
The team is likely to prioritize “more swing-and-miss versus ground-ball types,” he said. Only the Rockies and Royals have gotten a lower strikeout rate out of their rotation than St. Louis’ 18.4% clip. The bullpen has been more effective, ranking 12th with a 24.5% strikeout percentage.
A few members of the relief corps are also likely to be on the way out. The Cards already designated lefty Génesis Cabrera for assignment this morning. Mozeliak called that a “change of scenery” decision, noting that Cabrera is hopeful of landing a higher-leverage role than the one he’d received in St. Louis. Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton seem likely to be dealt strictly because of their contractual situations. Both are impending free agents and having quality seasons, with the flamethrowing Hicks standing out as a particularly desirable rental trade chip.
There aren’t any true rentals on the position player side, although the Cards seem likely to opt for a $1MM buyout over a $12.5MM club option on shortstop Paul DeJong. A middle infield logjam also comprising Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and eventually top prospect Masyn Winn makes a DeJong trade seem likely.
Left fielder Tyler O’Neill has seemed a potential trade candidate amidst a season decimated by back issues. Mozeliak didn’t expressly rule that out but seemed to cast some doubt on that possibility today, saying the Cardinals anticipated playing O’Neill as their everyday left fielder. He has been on the injured list since May 4 but could be reinstated before tomorrow’s game against Miami.
O’Neill is playing this season on a $4.95MM salary. The club can retain him for one more season via arbitration. St. Louis has enough outfield depth that O’Neill could be a non-tender candidate next winter, though it’s also possible they deal another outfielder to clear space. Star rookie Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last week the Cards were telling other clubs they had no intention of moving Lars Nootbaar.
That arguably leaves Dylan Carlson as an odd man out. The former top prospect is hitting .243/.350/.376 over 203 trips to the plate. He reaches arbitration for the first time next winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com indicated this evening (on Twitter) the Yankees could have some interest in Carlson as they search for outfield help.
Of course, there are no bigger names the Cardinals could put on the trade market than their star corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Mozeliak declined to declare either player categorically untouchable but strongly downplayed the possibility of moving either. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.” As he subsequently noted, both players have full no-trade rights, and it seems very unlikely a St. Louis team gearing back up for 2024 would want to part with either of its top two position players regardless.
Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters
The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.
Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.
While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.
Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.
As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.
Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.
Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.
There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert
The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.
The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.
To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.
More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.
The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.
But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.
The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.
This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.
Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.
It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.
Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.
Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.
Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.
Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.
Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.
Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.
Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.
All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.
Jordan Montgomery Leaves Game Due To Hamstring Injury
Cardinals left-hander Jordan Montgomery was forced to leave yesterday’s game after 4 1/3 innings due to a right hamstring injury. The problem arose on the 65th of Montgomery’s 66 pitches, as “I just kind of slipped on the mound and I guess my body tried to catch myself,” the southpaw told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. After making one more pitch as something of a test, Montgomery left the mound.
More will be known about Montgomery’s status after he undergoes testing, and with the All-Star break looming, Montgomery could have as many as nine days of rest before his next start. That would essentially serve as a skipped start without technically missing any action, allowing Montgomery some extra recovery time with the possibility of avoiding the injured list together. If a 15-day IL stint is deemed necessary, the All-Star break still helps limit the time lost, as Montgomery would miss two starts if he is able to return in a minimal amount of time.
Of course, there is another prominent timing issue at play in the form of the August 1 trade deadline. With the Cardinals floundering to a 36-52 record, it is looking increasingly likely that St. Louis will be sellers in some regard on deadline day. MLBTR recently ranked Montgomery and fellow St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty fourth and fifth on our list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates, as both are set for free agency this winter. Montgomery is the more valuable of the two since he is having a much more consistent season than Flaherty, yet this hamstring injury could obviously change the equation significantly.
Over 18 starts and 103 innings, Montgomery has a 3.23 ERA and a solid 6.3% walk rate. His SIERA is a less impressive 4.04 and his Statcast metrics are more middling than good, but the lefty has been trending upwards, with a 1.70 ERA over his last 47 2/3 innings. Montgomery has posted generally solid numbers over his seven MLB seasons and he has already been part of a headline-grabbing deadline trade. It was just last August that the Yankees sent Montgomery to St. Louis in a one-for-one swap for Harrison Bader.
Montgomery’s 2023 trade value is already somewhat limited since he’s a rental player, and naturally a serious injury would likely prevent St. Louis from dealing him whatsoever. A more nebulous recovery timeframe wouldn’t necessarily preclude a trade — for instance, if Montgomery does hit the IL and is projected to miss a month of time, a team might still be willing to roll the dice on a trade if they would still get Montgomery in the rotation by early August.
That said, the Cardinals will issue Montgomery a qualifying offer this winter, and in the very likely circumstance that Montgomery rejects the QO, St. Louis would get a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere. As such, the Cards aren’t likely to trade the left-hander unless they get an offer they believe is superior to the value of a compensatory pick, and if offers are diminished in the event of a Montgomery injury, the Cardinals might prefer to just keep him.
An ill-timed injury to a premium trade chip might be just another setback in what has been an increasingly nightmarish season for the Cardinals. The perennial contenders are on pace for their worst season in over a century, leaving the Cards in the unexpected position of having to gauge just how big of a retool is needed at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already ruled out a full rebuild, but “some changes” are certainly coming as the Cardinals try to get back on track for 2024.
2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition
We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.
As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.
1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.
Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.
To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.
And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.
Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.
When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.
Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.
So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.
MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.
Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.
Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.
3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.
That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.
Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.
In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.
Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.
4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.
Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.
Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)
As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.
Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.
5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.
That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.
The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.
That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).
A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.
Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.
6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.
For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.
That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).
Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.
Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.
7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.
Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.
That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.
The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.
8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.
Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.
Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.
Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.
9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.
Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.
Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.
10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.
Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.
Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)