West Notes: Eovaldi, Scherzer, Gurriel, Musgrove, Graveman
The Rangers are heading to Boston for a series with the Red Sox beginning tomorrow, but Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer are both going to Texas for injury-related checkups, GM Chris Young told the Associated Press and other reporters. Eovaldi left his start Saturday after three innings due to tightness in his left side, though the meeting with team doctor Keith Meister is seen as precautionary since Eovaldi “thinks he can pitch through” the issue, Young said. “He’s so important to us that we’re not sure we want to push him. We may end up pushing him back or skipping a start. We don’t think it’s an IL at this point, but we will clearly decide that once he sees Dr. Meister.”
Scherzer was placed on the 15-day injured list on July 31 due to right shoulder fatigue, and Young said the veteran “just hasn’t turned the corner with his shoulder. Our hope is that maybe we get back and explore some other diagnostic measures and get him back on the mound. But I don’t know what the timetable is going to be.” Between this IL stint and an extended absence at the start of the season while recovering from back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb, Scherzer has pitched only 39 1/3 innings over eight starts.
More will be known about both pitchers’ situations after the tests are complete, but there is clear cause for concern given how both Eovaldi and Scherzer have checkered injury histories. For Scherzer in particular, his situation is worrisome given how much time he has already missed, and whether or not his abnormal ramp-up this year simply kept him from being fully ready to pitch. If either Scherzer or Eovaldi are revealed to have more serious issues, it could put the rest of their seasons in jeopardy, as the Rangers might consider shutdowns if the team continues to fall back in the playoff race.
Some other notes from both the AL and NL West divisions…
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. left the Diamondbacks‘ 12-5 win over the Phillies today due to left hamstring tightness, but manager Torey Lovullo downplayed the injury in postgame comments to MLB.com and other media. Lovullo said the removal was precautionary and that Gurriel is day-to-day, plus the outfielder isn’t even being sent for any tests at this time. Gurriel is hitting .269/.302/.414 with 14 homers over 453 plate appearances as the team’s regular left fielder, translating to a 98 wRC+ in the first season of the three-year, $42MM contract he signed to rejoin the D’Backs last offseason.
- The Padres will be activating Joe Musgrove from the 60-day injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Pirates, after bone spurs in his right elbow cost him about two and a half months on the shelf. Talking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove made changes to his mechanics and delivery in order to help manage the injury. “The spur is going to be there, the structure of the elbow is not going to change unless I get an operation,” Musgrove said. “So [I’m] trying to find a way to be able to throw and still execute and still have good stuff. Hopefully it will alleviate some of the stress on the elbow is kind of the goal….I felt great in this build back.” Between this injury and a previous elbow-related stint on the IL, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings this season, with a shaky 5.66 ERA.
- Kendall Graveman wasn’t expected to pitch in 2024 after a shoulder surgery last January, but his hopes at an in-season comeback gained some momentum Saturday when he threw a 10-pitch bullpen session. Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Graveman hit 86-87mph in his first time throwing off a mound since the surgery. As Kawahara notes, there might simply be not enough time left in the season for Graveman to get fully ramped up and then complete a minor league rehab assignment, but that won’t stop the veteran from trying.
Diamondbacks Re-Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Dec. 22: The D-backs have now formally announced the signing.
Dec. 17: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a reunion with free agent outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM contract. The deal (which becomes official once Gurriel passes a physical) contains a opt-out clause after the 2025 season, as well as a $14MM club option for the Diamondbacks for the 2027 campaign. Gurriel is represented by Magnus Sports.
The 30-year-old Gurriel played in Arizona in 2023 after he and catcher Gabriel Moreno were acquired from the Blue Jays in the trade that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto. Gurriel got off to a hot start in his new locale, making his first career All-Star appearance thanks in large part to a blistering month of May (.352/.416/.714 in 101 plate appearances). That production proved to be something of an outlier for the outfielder, however, as he posted a sub-.700 OPS in each of April, June, and July that left him with an overall slash line of just .246/.294/.445 in 388 trips to the plate entering the month of August.
Gurriel managed to turn things back around down the stretch, however, finishing with a .261/.309/.463 slash line to show for 592 PA over the entire regular season. He also performed decently (93 wRC+) in 70 trips to the plate during Arizona’s postseason run, including a .333/.350/.500 slash line against the Rangers during the World Series.
Despite Gurriel’s uneven performance in 2023, he’s been a pretty solid bat throughout his career with an above-average wRC+ every year since he debuted in the majors back in 2018. Since becoming an everyday player during the shortened 2020 season, Gurriel has slashed .279/.326/.456 with a 112 wRC+. He also receives strong marks for his defense in left field, including a +14 Defensive Runs Saves with Arizona last season. While Gurriel managed just five homers in 121 games with the Blue Jays in 2022, he rediscovered his power stroke with the Diamondbacks last year, clubbing 24 home runs to go along with 35 doubles, both career-best figures.
If he can maintain that power output while bouncing back from a career-worst .282 BABIP last season, it’s possible Gurriel can unlock another level of offensive potential as he enters his thirties. The opt-out clause reflects this ceiling, as Gurriel could now re-enter the market heading into his age-32 season after what he hopes are a pair of very productive seasons in the desert.
Given the dearth of consistent offensive options available on the free agent market this offseason, it’s not a shock that Gurriel was able to land a healthy guarantee. The total guarantee of $42MM clocked in below the four-year, $54MM contract MLBTR projected for Gurriel when placing him 14th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, though it’s worth noting that the average annual value of the deal is, by contrast, higher than we projected. While Gurriel is largely limited to left field defensively and has not yet posted truly impactful offensive numbers over a full season as an everyday player, his consistency and potential upside make him a worthwhile investment for an Arizona club that was looking to add to its outfield mix this offseason.
Looking ahead to 2024, Gurriel profiles as the club’s everyday left fielder where he’ll likely patrol the outfield alongside Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll, with the likes of Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher as depth options behind the starting trio. Gurriel is the only right-handed bat in that outfield mix and could help the club’s outfield produce against left-handers. Arizona struggled badly against left-handed pitching in 2023, though Gurriel slashed an impressive .301/.363/.452 against southpaws. Retaining Gurriel and adding another righty bat in third baseman Eugenio Suarez should help shore up the team’s performance against left-handers.
It has already been a busy offseason for the Diamondbacks, who inked left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal earlier this month in addition to the aforementioned trade for Suarez. While Roster Resource projects the Gurriel contract to take the club’s 2024 payroll into uncharted territory with a $140MM figure, it appears that the club does not intend on slowing down from here. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests the club still plans on adding a power-hitting DH to their lineup before the offseason comes to a close, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specifically denotes the club’s interest in right-handed veterans J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner. Jorge Soler is another name the club has been connected to in recent weeks that could fill that role.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report the agreement between Gurriel and the Diamondbacks. ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel had the length of the deal and the financial terms, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had the details on the opt-out clause and the club option.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
MLBTR Podcast: Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Dodgers acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow (0:30)
- The Giants signed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (7:15)
- Diamondbacks sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (13:05)
Plus, Steve Adams joins to answer your questions, including…
- What’s going on with Atlanta shuffling all these contracts around? (21:25)
- Will the Mariners do anything with the payroll they jettisoned? (30:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
- Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
- Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Red Sox Interested In Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael A. Taylor, Martin Maldonado
The Red Sox are considering a number of position player targets, including a pair of outfielders. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Sox are interested in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., KPRC’s Ari Alexander reports that Michael A. Taylor is another player of interest, and Boston is also looking at help behind the plate in Martin Maldonado, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. (All links to X).
Even after the trade of Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier tonight, the Red Sox technically still have a set starting outfield in Jarred Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, with Masataka Yoshida available for part-time duty in left field when he isn’t a designated hitter, and utilitymen Rob Refsnyder and Pablo Reyes in the mix. That said, the projected starting outfield doesn’t carry much MLB experience, making a veteran addition like Gurriel (for left field) or Taylor (for center) very sensible.
Gurriel will be the priciest of the group, as MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM contract for the 30-year-old while ranking Gurriel 14th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. Over his six Major League seasons with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, Gurriel has been a streaky but generally productive bat, hitting .279/.324/.446 for a career 113 wRC+ over 2456 plate appearances. Settling in as a regular left fielder after some poor defensive showings as an infielder at the start of his career, Gurriel’s glovework has been somewhat mixed, yet public metrics were very impressed across the board with his fielding in 2023. It could be that the move to Chase Field from Rogers Centre helped Gurriel’s defense, though dealing with the Green Monster in Fenway Park could be a trickier endeavor.
The Red Sox got a first-hand look at Gurriel during his days in Toronto, and Gurriel has a solid .811 OPS over 180 career PA at Fenway. Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also crossed paths with Gurriel on a personal level, as Breslow’s last pro season (2018) was spent in the Blue Jays organization when Gurriel spent time at Double-A and Triple-A before making his MLB debut that season.
Since defensive improvements are a stated goal of the Red Sox offseason, signing a former Gold Glover like Taylor would provide immediate help. Taylor’s +5 Defensive Runs Saved, +8 Outs Above Average, and +4.3 UZR/150 over 960 1/3 center field innings with the Twins last season were actually down from some of his elite totals earlier in his career, yet obviously Taylor is still among the best defensive center fielders in the sport. He added to that glovework with one of his better offensive seasons, hitting .220/.278/.442 with 21 home runs in 388 PA for Minnesota in 2023 for a 96 wRC+.
With Byron Buxton unable to play center field due to recurring knee problems, Taylor ended up being very valuable in solidifying Minnesota’s center field situation. The same could be true in Boston, as having Taylor up the middle on even a part-time basis would allow Rafaela to perhaps contribute at second base — another known target area for the Red Sox this winter.
Taylor and Maldonado could come at much lower price tags than Gurriel, and could be had at one-year contracts despite quite a bit of interest in their service. For instance, Maldonado has drawn interest from at least four other teams besides the Red Sox, though a reunion with the Astros now looks to be scuttled given Houston’s signing of Victor Caratini.
Though Maldonado has never contributed much as a hitter, his ability to handle pitchers and call games has been widely praised throughout his career. This allowed Maldonado to continue getting regular at-bats in Houston, and his work with the Astros’ pitchers was seen as a major reason for their development and the peak that was the 2022 World Series title. However, as Yainer Diaz started to break out as a catcher of the future, the Astros ultimately decided to move on from Maldonado, leaving the veteran in search of a new home.
Connor Wong and Reese McGuire already form a catching platoon, so there would seem to be less immediate opportunity for playing time in Boston than Maldonado might find on another team. Signing Maldonado might open the door for the Sox to make a trade, as Kyle Teel could make his MLB debut in 2024 and is seen as Boston’s catcher of the future. If Wong and McGuire are seen as shorter-term placeholders anyway, Maldonado could then become a veteran mentor to Teel as the top prospect gets acclimated to the majors.
MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…
- Our MLB Contract Tracker, which you can find more about in this video (1:30)
- The 18th birthday of MLBTR, the evolution of the Top 50 list over the years and the preparation of this year’s list (3:00)
- Shohei Ohtani and his unique free agent case (10:35)
- Cody Bellinger and the trend of longer deals for top free agents (16:00)
- The approach to team predictions in the Top 50 (27:00)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his unique case (33:05)
- Blake Snell (38:15)
- Team fits for the top pitchers, such as the Red Sox and Giants (42:35)
- Comparing Aaron Nola to Jordan Montgomery (48:55)
- Which predictions do we have the least confidence in? Lucas Giolito, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Matt Chapman (52:10)
- Sonny Gray (1:04:00)
- Robert Stephenson (1:09:45)
- Jack Flaherty (1:12:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
- Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin – listen here
- Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ineligible For Qualifying Offer
With the World Series now over, clubs have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. The Diamondbacks were thought to be facing a decision on outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel’s current contract prohibits him from receiving a QO.
Normally, players are eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of a season if they spent that entire campaign with just one club and have not previously received a QO. That made Gurriel a borderline candidate to receive a QO, which is set to be around $20.5MM this year. But today’s news indicates that won’t be on the table after all.
Players coming to the majors from foreign leagues often have stipulations in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the rules that typically apply to other players. One of the more common clauses is that players coming from Cuba or Asia can become free agents when the contract expires, even if they are shy of the standard six years of service time normally required to automatically hit the open market. It appears Gurriel’s contract also has a clause preventing him from being saddled with a qualifying offer.
Now 30, Gurriel played in Cuba from 2010 to 2016 but defected with his brother Yuli Gurriel before signing a seven-year, $22MM deal with the Blue Jays. He spent all of 2017 in the minors and had optional assignments in 2018 and 2019 as well. That meant that he accrued between five and six years of service time over the seven years of that deal, but the language in the contract allowed him to qualify for free agency regardless.
Prior to the final year of the deal, the Jays traded him and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho. Gurriel had a solid season for the Snakes, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .261/.309/.463 for a wRC+ of 106. The reviews on his left field glovework were mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved giving him an excellent +14 while Outs Above Average had a more modest +1. That led to a tally of 3.0 wins above replacement from Baseball Reference and 2.1 from FanGraphs.
It would have been an interesting call for the Diamondbacks whether to issue a QO or not. A salary of $20.5MM for a solid but not elite everyday player is arguably an overpay, especially for a club that’s not a huge spender, but it wouldn’t have been egregious. That’s a moot point now as his contract won’t allow them to consider the QO at all.
This revelation benefits Gurriel, as receiving a qualifying offer usually harms a player’s earning power in free agency. Signing a player who rejects a QO means the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and, in some cases, a reduction of their international bonus pool limit. Gurriel may have been able to enter free agency without a QO regardless but it’s now apparent that the language of his contract guarantees it. He is now free agent and will be one of the better bats available in a position player market headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernández, Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario.
Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players
We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.
A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.
No-Doubters
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.
Likely Recipient
- Teoscar Hernández (Mariners)
Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.
The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.
Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.
Possible Candidates
- Mitch Garver (Rangers)
Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.
That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.
This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.
Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)
Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.
With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.
Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.
A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.
- J.D. Martinez (Dodgers)
While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.
Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.
The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.
In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.
If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.
- Jorge Soler (Marlins)
Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.
The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.
A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.
Long Shots
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (D-Backs)
Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.
Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays)
Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.
That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.
Ineligible
- Josh Bell (Marlins)
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays)
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs)
- Michael Conforto (Giants)
- Justin Turner (Red Sox)
Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.
MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters
The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams. Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.
This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate. Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.
Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season. The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen. This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.
National League
- Catcher: Sean Murphy, Braves
- First Base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
- Second Base: Luis Arraez, Marlins
- Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
- Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
- Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
- Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
- Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
- Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
- Pitchers: Alexis Diaz/Reds, Camilo Doval/Giants, Bryce Elder/Braves, Zac Gallen/Diamondbacks, Josiah Gray/Nationals, Josh Hader/Padres, Mitch Keller/Pirates, Clayton Kershaw/Dodgers, Justin Steele/Cubs, Spencer Strider/Braves, Marcus Stroman/Cubs, Devin Williams/Brewers
- Position Players: Ozzie Albies/Braves, Pete Alonso/Mets, Nick Castellanos/Phillies, Elias Diaz/Rockies, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Diamondbacks, Matt Olson/Braves, Austin Riley/Braves, Will Smith/Dodgers, Jorge Soler/Marlins, Juan Soto/Padres, Dansby Swanson/Cubs
American League
- Catcher: Jonah Heim, Rangers
- First Base: Yandy Díaz, Rays
- Second Base: Marcus Semien, Rangers
- Third Base: Josh Jung, Rangers
- Shortstop: Corey Seager, Rangers
- Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Rays
- Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels
- Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
- Pitchers: Felix Bautista/Orioles, Yennier Cano/Orioles, Emmanuel Clase/Guardians, Luis Castillo/Mariners, Gerrit Cole/Yankees, Nathan Eovaldi/Rangers, Kevin Gausman/Blue Jays, Sonny Gray/Twins, Kenley Jansen/Red Sox, Michael Lorenzen/Tigers, Shane McClanahan/Rays, Shohei Ohtani/Angels, Framber Valdez/Astros
- Position Players: Yordan Alvarez/Astros, Bo Bichette/Blue Jays, Adolis Garcia/Rangers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Blue Jays, Austin Hays/Orioles, Whit Merrifield/Blue Jays, Salvador Perez/Royals, Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Luis Robert Jr./White Sox, Brent Rooker/Athletics, Adley Rutschman/Orioles
D-Backs’ Offseason Trade Pickup Off To Excellent Start
In an offseason light on impact trade activity, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays pulled off one of the biggest swaps. Arizona’s left-handed hitting outfield surplus and Toronto’s catching depth materialized in the deal that sent Gold Glove caliber outfielder Daulton Varsho to Toronto for rookie backstop Gabriel Moreno. That duo were the main players involved, but Arizona also added right-handed balance to the lineup with the inclusion of veteran left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel has a longer MLB track record than either of Varsho or Moreno but was by far the tertiary player in terms of trade value. He’d been a good but not elite hitter throughout his time with the Jays. In 2022, the Cuban-born outfielder put up a .291/.343/.400 batting line with five home runs over 493 plate appearances. That offensive output checked in 14 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+. Paired with average defensive marks in a corner outfield spot, Gurriel has been worth between one and two wins above replacement in every season of his career (although he would’ve been on a better pace in 2020 if that schedule hadn’t been truncated).
There was no question Gurriel was a viable major league player. He’d been a near average regular for the entirety of his career. Due roughly $5.4MM in his final season before free agency — a clause in the contract he signed with Toronto after defecting from Cuba allows him to reach the open market next winter even though he’ll be a little shy of six years of MLB service — he had trade value but not an overwhelming amount.
Arizona anticipated an immediate downgrade in their outfield from Varsho to Gurriel, a tradeoff they were willing to make to install Moreno behind the plate for the next six seasons. While that could still play out, Gurriel has somewhat surprisingly been the far more productive of the two outfielders through the first couple months of the year. Varsho has started his Toronto tenure with a .217/.294/.382 showing through 42 contests. Over his first 39 games in the desert, Gurriel is off to a career-best .310/.373/.552 pace. His seven homers in 161 plate appearances already tops last year’s mark and puts him on pace to beat his career-best 21 longballs from two years ago.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored before this season, injuries could certainly have played a role in Gurriel’s up-and-down results from 2022. He’d bookended a very strong run between June and July with dismal numbers in May and August. A hamstring strain cut his season short in early September and, likely of greater import on his production, he underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand following the season. Hand and wrist injuries can sap a hitter’s strength; if Gurriel were playing through that issue for a while, it’d be understandable why his power production was at a career-worst level.
Better health is a plausible explanation for some of Gurriel’s improved production but doesn’t account for all of it. He’s also working with a more dialed-in plate approach than he has in years past. Through play Wednesday, he’s sitting on a personal-low 14.9% strikeout rate and drawing walks at a career-best 8.1% clip.
While Gurriel has always had good bat-t0-ball skills, he has taken things to a new level in the early going by being more selective. He has offered at 45.8% of the pitches he’s seen, the lowest rate of his career by three percentage points. Gurriel is translating that approach into consistent contact. He has gotten the bat on the ball on an excellent 85.8% of his swings, almost six points better than last year’s personal-high mark. Pitchers have been unable to beat him in the zone, with Gurriel making contact nearly 92% of the time he goes after a would-be strike. He’s putting the ball in play more consistently without sacrificing any of his contact authority.
That’s an ideal combination for a hitter. Gurriel is 29th among 171 qualified batters in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging. That plays even without elite defense in the outfield. It’s among the reasons Arizona sits at 25-19 with a +16 run differential and looks like a legitimate contender for a Wild Card spot in an uncertain National League playoff picture.
A career showing couldn’t be timed better for Gurriel personally. He’s headed to the open market for the first time since he was a 23-year-old amateur signee. He’ll do so in advance of his age-30 season and as part of a free agent class that looks very thin on position player talent. Among potential impending free agents with 100+ plate appearances, only Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Max Muncy (who’s controllable for 2024 via $10MM club option) have a higher wRC+ than Gurriel’s 148.
Gurriel isn’t going to be the #3 free agent position player in the class but he has a chance to hit his way into a solid multi-year deal. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto topped $35MM on contracts with opt-out possibilities as bat-first corner outfielders. Both players had durability concerns that aren’t there with Gurriel. The five years and $75MM secured by Andrew Benintendi feels lofty given Benintendi’s defensive advantage and youth (he signed going into his age-28 season), but Gurriel looks like the superior hitter.
At the very least, Arizona’s new acquisition has a chance to position himself as an interesting mid-tier free agent. It remains to be seen if he can keep up his present pace over six months but he looks healthier than he had last season and is making excellent swing decisions. It’s a better start than the D-Backs could’ve expected and a key development in the club’s strong start to the year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Make Or Break Year: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona. Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.
It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year. He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations. Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.
Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average. He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022. While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.
With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games. For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone. Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics. Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed. It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.
Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder. Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term. As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).
Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate. The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance. Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.
While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career. Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.
It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time. The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment. Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.
2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time. The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.
Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023. Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental. If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.
If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year. As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out. Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.
Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family. However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.