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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Diamondbacks Place Lourdes Gurriel Jr. On Injured List, Reinstate Christian Walker

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The Diamondbacks announced that first baseman Christian Walker has been reinstated from the injured list. He has been out since the end of July due to a strained left oblique. He’ll take the roster spot of outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is heading the other way. Gurriel has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a strained left calf, retroactive to September 2.

The Snakes get one of their lineup regulars back but lose another. Walker hit 23 home runs and produced a batting line of .254/.338/.476 before landing on the IL, production that translated to a 122 wRC+. He also routinely gets strong grades for his defense at first base, so he’s been worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the year despite his absence, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

Gurriel departed Sunday game due to some tightness in his calf and was sent for an MRI. It’s unclear exactly how much time the club expects him to miss, but the IL placement suggests he needs at least a week or so to rest up. He has 17 home runs and a line of .274/.316/.428 this year, leading to a 104 wRC+. He has strong defensive grades in the outfield as well, leading to a 1.8 fWAR tally on the year.

Subbing in Walker for Gurriel is a slight upgrade for the club in a vacuum, but it will be an interesting roster fit for manager Torey Lovullo to work out. The Snakes acquired Josh Bell to help cover first base in Walker’s absence and he has played well since that trade, with a .283/.356/.453 line and 125 wRC+. The designated hitter slot is usually taken by Joc Pederson, who is hitting .280/.400/.533 for a 157 wRC+ this year.

Pederson is faring well in his limited looks against southpaws this year but has notable career splits and has generally been shielded from opposing lefties. Bell is a switch-hitter and should at least be able to take the short side of a platoon with Pederson, but it’s unclear if he’ll be able to get more playing time beyond that. Pederson is a poor defender and hasn’t been put out into the field at all this year. He got 204 innings in the field with the Giants last year but produced -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -4 Outs Above Average in that limited time.

With Gurriel out, the Snakes have an opportunity to move Pederson out there while opening the DH slot for Bell/Walker, but they will have to weigh the defensive hit against the offensive gain. Randal Grichuk has strong numbers against lefty pitchers this year, 128 wRC+ against them compared to a 96 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Theoretically, he could take the field against southpaws with Bell as the DH, then Pederson could take the field against righties. Though perhaps they might simply prefer to have Grichuk out there since he’s a stronger defender than Pederson, perhaps factoring in the pitcher and opposing lineup, calculating whether they think the left fielder will see a lot of action on a given day.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. To Undergo MRI On Left Calf

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The Diamondbacks’ 14-3 rout of the Dodgers today wasn’t an entirely smooth ride for Arizona, as left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. left the game after suffering some tightness in his left calf.  The injury occurred when Gurriel was trying to beat out a grounder in the bottom of the sixth, and he was replaced in left field when the seventh inning began.  Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that Gurriel is day-to-day for now and will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.

Gurriel is hitting .274/.316/.428 with 17 home runs over 522 plate appearances this season, while posting solid defensive metrics across the board as the Diamondbacks’ everyday left fielder.  The glovework is a bit less impressive than it was in 2023, but Gurriel’s 104 wRC+ is just a shade beneath his 105 wRC+ in 592 PA a year ago.  That successful first season in Arizona and his continued hitting in the playoffs inspired the D’Backs to re-sign Gurriel in free agency last winter, bringing him back on a three-year, $42MM deal that includes a club option for 2027.

While Gurriel has been prone to pretty extreme hot-and-cold stretches at the plate, his streakiness has evened out to a pretty stable career track record.  Over the last five 162-game Major League seasons, Gurriel has averaged no less than 1.6 fWAR and no more than 2.0 fWAR, though his 1.9 fWAR through 125 games this year could get a new highwater mark.

Of course, that’s assuming this calf problem doesn’t require a stint on the 10-day injured list.  Calf injuries can be tricky to manage and anything more than minor cafe issues can tend to linger, so there will be some measure of concern in the Diamondbacks’ camp until the MRI comes back clean.

Arizona can hardly afford to lose another regular during the playoff hunt.  Today’s victory put the Snakes five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West race, and just percentage points ahead of the Padres for the top NL wild card berth.  While the D’Backs have built a little breathing room in their pursuit of at least a wild card, the team has hung in even though Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno are all on the 10-day IL.

The good news on the injury front is that Walker is “real close” to a return, Lovullo told Piecoro and company today.  Walker could be back at some point during the Diamondbacks’ six-game road trip that begins Tuesday in San Francisco, as the first baseman has progressed to facing live pitching in workouts at the team’s Spring Training camp.  It doesn’t appear as though Walker will need a minor league rehab assignment, even though he has been sidelined for over a month due to a left oblique strain.

Moreno’s IL stint (due to a groin strain) is also nearing the one-month mark, as Moreno hasn’t played since August 5.  Lovullo said Moreno is hitting and has resumed catching drills.  Marte is also taking live at-bats but isn’t yet running out of the batters’ box, as he continues to recover from an ankle sprain that sent him to the IL on August 18.

West Notes: Eovaldi, Scherzer, Gurriel, Musgrove, Graveman

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The Rangers are heading to Boston for a series with the Red Sox beginning tomorrow, but Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer are both going to Texas for injury-related checkups, GM Chris Young told the Associated Press and other reporters.  Eovaldi left his start Saturday after three innings due to tightness in his left side, though the meeting with team doctor Keith Meister is seen as precautionary since Eovaldi “thinks he can pitch through” the issue, Young said.  “He’s so important to us that we’re not sure we want to push him.  We may end up pushing him back or skipping a start.  We don’t think it’s an IL at this point, but we will clearly decide that once he sees Dr. Meister.”

Scherzer was placed on the 15-day injured list on July 31 due to right shoulder fatigue, and Young said the veteran “just hasn’t turned the corner with his shoulder.  Our hope is that maybe we get back and explore some other diagnostic measures and get him back on the mound.  But I don’t know what the timetable is going to be.”  Between this IL stint and an extended absence at the start of the season while recovering from back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb, Scherzer has pitched only 39 1/3 innings over eight starts.

More will be known about both pitchers’ situations after the tests are complete, but there is clear cause for concern given how both Eovaldi and Scherzer have checkered injury histories.  For Scherzer in particular, his situation is worrisome given how much time he has already missed, and whether or not his abnormal ramp-up this year simply kept him from being fully ready to pitch.  If either Scherzer or Eovaldi are revealed to have more serious issues, it could put the rest of their seasons in jeopardy, as the Rangers might consider shutdowns if the team continues to fall back in the playoff race.

Some other notes from both the AL and NL West divisions…

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. left the Diamondbacks’ 12-5 win over the Phillies today due to left hamstring tightness, but manager Torey Lovullo downplayed the injury in postgame comments to MLB.com and other media.  Lovullo said the removal was precautionary and that Gurriel is day-to-day, plus the outfielder isn’t even being sent for any tests at this time.  Gurriel is hitting .269/.302/.414 with 14 homers over 453 plate appearances as the team’s regular left fielder, translating to a 98 wRC+ in the first season of the three-year, $42MM contract he signed to rejoin the D’Backs last offseason.
  • The Padres will be activating Joe Musgrove from the 60-day injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Pirates, after bone spurs in his right elbow cost him about two and a half months on the shelf.  Talking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove made changes to his mechanics and delivery in order to help manage the injury.  “The spur is going to be there, the structure of the elbow is not going to change unless I get an operation,” Musgrove said.  “So [I’m] trying to find a way to be able to throw and still execute and still have good stuff.  Hopefully it will alleviate some of the stress on the elbow is kind of the goal….I felt great in this build back.”  Between this injury and a previous elbow-related stint on the IL, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings this season, with a shaky 5.66 ERA.
  • Kendall Graveman wasn’t expected to pitch in 2024 after a shoulder surgery last January, but his hopes at an in-season comeback gained some momentum Saturday when he threw a 10-pitch bullpen session.  Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that Graveman hit 86-87mph in his first time throwing off a mound since the surgery.  As Kawahara notes, there might simply be not enough time left in the season for Graveman to get fully ramped up and then complete a minor league rehab assignment, but that won’t stop the veteran from trying.

Diamondbacks Re-Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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Dec. 22: The D-backs have now formally announced the signing.

Dec. 17: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a reunion with free agent outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM contract. The deal (which becomes official once Gurriel passes a physical) contains a opt-out clause after the 2025 season, as well as a $14MM club option for the Diamondbacks for the 2027 campaign. Gurriel is represented by Magnus Sports.

The 30-year-old Gurriel played in Arizona in 2023 after he and catcher Gabriel Moreno were acquired from the Blue Jays in the trade that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto. Gurriel got off to a hot start in his new locale, making his first career All-Star appearance thanks in large part to a blistering month of May (.352/.416/.714 in 101 plate appearances). That production proved to be something of an outlier for the outfielder, however, as he posted a sub-.700 OPS in each of April, June, and July that left him with an overall slash line of just .246/.294/.445 in 388 trips to the plate entering the month of August.

Gurriel managed to turn things back around down the stretch, however, finishing with a .261/.309/.463 slash line to show for 592 PA over the entire regular season. He also performed decently (93 wRC+) in 70 trips to the plate during Arizona’s postseason run, including a .333/.350/.500 slash line against the Rangers during the World Series.

Despite Gurriel’s uneven performance in 2023, he’s been a pretty solid bat throughout his career with an above-average wRC+ every year since he debuted in the majors back in 2018. Since becoming an everyday player during the shortened 2020 season, Gurriel has slashed .279/.326/.456 with a 112 wRC+. He also receives strong marks for his defense in left field, including a +14 Defensive Runs Saves with Arizona last season. While Gurriel managed just five homers in 121 games with the Blue Jays in 2022, he rediscovered his power stroke with the Diamondbacks last year, clubbing 24 home runs to go along with 35 doubles, both career-best figures.

If he can maintain that power output while bouncing back from a career-worst .282 BABIP last season, it’s possible Gurriel can unlock another level of offensive potential as he enters his thirties. The opt-out clause reflects this ceiling, as Gurriel could now re-enter the market heading into his age-32 season after what he hopes are a pair of very productive seasons in the desert.

Given the dearth of consistent offensive options available on the free agent market this offseason, it’s not a shock that Gurriel was able to land a healthy guarantee. The total guarantee of $42MM clocked in below the four-year, $54MM contract MLBTR projected for Gurriel when placing him 14th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, though it’s worth noting that the average annual value of the deal is, by contrast, higher than we projected. While Gurriel is largely limited to left field defensively and has not yet posted truly impactful offensive numbers over a full season as an everyday player, his consistency and potential upside make him a worthwhile investment for an Arizona club that was looking to add to its outfield mix this offseason.

Looking ahead to 2024, Gurriel profiles as the club’s everyday left fielder where he’ll likely patrol the outfield alongside Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll, with the likes of Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher as depth options behind the starting trio. Gurriel is the only right-handed bat in that outfield mix and could help the club’s outfield produce against left-handers. Arizona struggled badly against left-handed pitching in 2023, though Gurriel slashed an impressive .301/.363/.452 against southpaws. Retaining Gurriel and adding another righty bat in third baseman Eugenio Suarez should help shore up the team’s performance against left-handers.

It has already been a busy offseason for the Diamondbacks, who inked left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal earlier this month in addition to the aforementioned trade for Suarez. While Roster Resource projects the Gurriel contract to take the club’s 2024 payroll into uncharted territory with a $140MM figure, it appears that the club does not intend on slowing down from here. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests the club still plans on adding a power-hitting DH to their lineup before the offseason comes to a close, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specifically denotes the club’s interest in right-handed veterans J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner. Jorge Soler is another name the club has been connected to in recent weeks that could fill that role.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report the agreement between Gurriel and the Diamondbacks.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel had the length of the deal and the financial terms, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand had the details on the opt-out clause and the club option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Podcast: Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, Steve Adams joins to answer your questions, including…

  • What’s going on with Atlanta shuffling all these contracts around? (21:25)
  • Will the Mariners do anything with the payroll they jettisoned? (30:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Interested In Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael A. Taylor, Martin Maldonado

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The Red Sox are considering a number of position player targets, including a pair of outfielders.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Sox are interested in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., KPRC’s Ari Alexander reports that Michael A. Taylor is another player of interest, and Boston is also looking at help behind the plate in Martin Maldonado, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome.  (All links to X).

Even after the trade of Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier tonight, the Red Sox technically still have a set starting outfield in Jarred Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, with Masataka Yoshida available for part-time duty in left field when he isn’t a designated hitter, and utilitymen Rob Refsnyder and Pablo Reyes in the mix.  That said, the projected starting outfield doesn’t carry much MLB experience, making a veteran addition like Gurriel (for left field) or Taylor (for center) very sensible.

Gurriel will be the priciest of the group, as MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM contract for the 30-year-old while ranking Gurriel 14th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  Over his six Major League seasons with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, Gurriel has been a streaky but generally productive bat, hitting .279/.324/.446 for a career 113 wRC+ over 2456 plate appearances.  Settling in as a regular left fielder after some poor defensive showings as an infielder at the start of his career, Gurriel’s glovework has been somewhat mixed, yet public metrics were very impressed across the board with his fielding in 2023.  It could be that the move to Chase Field from Rogers Centre helped Gurriel’s defense, though dealing with the Green Monster in Fenway Park could be a trickier endeavor.

The Red Sox got a first-hand look at Gurriel during his days in Toronto, and Gurriel has a solid .811 OPS over 180 career PA at Fenway.  Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also crossed paths with Gurriel on a personal level, as Breslow’s last pro season (2018) was spent in the Blue Jays organization when Gurriel spent time at Double-A and Triple-A before making his MLB debut that season.

Since defensive improvements are a stated goal of the Red Sox offseason, signing a former Gold Glover like Taylor would provide immediate help.  Taylor’s +5 Defensive Runs Saved, +8 Outs Above Average, and +4.3 UZR/150 over 960 1/3 center field innings with the Twins last season were actually down from some of his elite totals earlier in his career, yet obviously Taylor is still among the best defensive center fielders in the sport.  He added to that glovework with one of his better offensive seasons, hitting .220/.278/.442 with 21 home runs in 388 PA for Minnesota in 2023 for a 96 wRC+.

With Byron Buxton unable to play center field due to recurring knee problems, Taylor ended up being very valuable in solidifying Minnesota’s center field situation.  The same could be true in Boston, as having Taylor up the middle on even a part-time basis would allow Rafaela to perhaps contribute at second base — another known target area for the Red Sox this winter.

Taylor and Maldonado could come at much lower price tags than Gurriel, and could be had at one-year contracts despite quite a bit of interest in their service.  For instance, Maldonado has drawn interest from at least four other teams besides the Red Sox, though a reunion with the Astros now looks to be scuttled given Houston’s signing of Victor Caratini.

Though Maldonado has never contributed much as a hitter, his ability to handle pitchers and call games has been widely praised throughout his career.  This allowed Maldonado to continue getting regular at-bats in Houston, and his work with the Astros’ pitchers was seen as a major reason for their development and the peak that was the 2022 World Series title.  However, as Yainer Diaz started to break out as a catcher of the future, the Astros ultimately decided to move on from Maldonado, leaving the veteran in search of a new home.

Connor Wong and Reese McGuire already form a catching platoon, so there would seem to be less immediate opportunity for playing time in Boston than Maldonado might find on another team.  Signing Maldonado might open the door for the Sox to make a trade, as Kyle Teel could make his MLB debut in 2024 and is seen as Boston’s catcher of the future.  If Wong and McGuire are seen as shorter-term placeholders anyway, Maldonado could then become a veteran mentor to Teel as the top prospect gets acclimated to the majors.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ineligible For Qualifying Offer

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With the World Series now over, clubs have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. The Diamondbacks were thought to be facing a decision on outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel’s current contract prohibits him from receiving a QO.

Normally, players are eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of a season if they spent that entire campaign with just one club and have not previously received a QO. That made Gurriel a borderline candidate to receive a QO, which is set to be around $20.5MM this year. But today’s news indicates that won’t be on the table after all.

Players coming to the majors from foreign leagues often have stipulations in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the rules that typically apply to other players. One of the more common clauses is that players coming from Cuba or Asia can become free agents when the contract expires, even if they are shy of the standard six years of service time normally required to automatically hit the open market. It appears Gurriel’s contract also has a clause preventing him from being saddled with a qualifying offer.

Now 30, Gurriel played in Cuba from 2010 to 2016 but defected with his brother Yuli Gurriel before signing a seven-year, $22MM deal with the Blue Jays. He spent all of 2017 in the minors and had optional assignments in 2018 and 2019 as well. That meant that he accrued between five and six years of service time over the seven years of that deal, but the language in the contract allowed him to qualify for free agency regardless.

Prior to the final year of the deal, the Jays traded him and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Daulton Varsho. Gurriel had a solid season for the Snakes, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .261/.309/.463 for a wRC+ of 106. The reviews on his left field glovework were mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved giving him an excellent +14 while Outs Above Average had a more modest +1. That led to a tally of 3.0 wins above replacement from Baseball Reference and 2.1 from FanGraphs.

It would have been an interesting call for the Diamondbacks whether to issue a QO or not. A salary of $20.5MM for a solid but not elite everyday player is arguably an overpay, especially for a club that’s not a huge spender, but it wouldn’t have been egregious. That’s a moot point now as his contract won’t allow them to consider the QO at all.

This revelation benefits Gurriel, as receiving a qualifying offer usually harms a player’s earning power in free agency. Signing a player who rejects a QO means the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and, in some cases, a reduction of their international bonus pool limit. Gurriel may have been able to enter free agency without a QO regardless but it’s now apparent that the language of his contract guarantees it. He is now free agent and will be one of the better bats available in a position player market headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernández, Matt Chapman and Jeimer Candelario.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

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