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2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Giants Place Alex Wood On IL, Recall Tristan Beck

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The Giants have placed left-hander Alex Wood on the 15-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain, per Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News. Right-hander Tristan Beck has been recalled to take his place on the roster. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle had previously reported that Beck was with the club.

Wood, 32, started last night’s game for the Giants but departed after appearing to injure himself while fielding a bunt. It was later announced as a hamstring strain, per Slusser. It’s an unfortunate development for the Giants, as Wood was out to a nice start here in 2023, currently sporting a 1.80 ERA through three outings. Wood is an obviously talented pitcher, currently owning a 3.67 career ERA in 1,131 innings, but injuries have been a frequent obstacle. Shoulder and back issues have been a frequent culprit, with the southpaw only tossing 48 2/3 total innings over 2019 and 2020. After moving to the Giants for the 2021 season, he’s had some better health but still only got to 26 starts and just over 130 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

With Wood out, it’s possible that Ross Stripling gets another crack at a rotation job. It was reported last week that he would be moved to the bullpen after a rough start to the year, but he pitched well last night, helping the club get through the game after Wood’s departure. He tossed 2 1/3 scoreless innings with three strikeouts, two hits and no walks. He told Slusser this morning that he’s ditching his new changeup for now and focusing on getting his typical repertoire in good shape. Even with last night’s good outing, his ERA is still at 7.30 for the year, but he had a much better 3.01 mark for the Blue Jays last year. That compelled the Giants to give him a two-year, $25MM deal in the winter with an opt-out after 2023. The Giants still have four rotation spots spoken for between Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani and Sean Manaea, with Stripling perhaps taking over that #5 slot. Manager Gabe Kapler tells Slusser that there’s a good chance Stripling does indeed return to the rotation.

It’s unclear how long Wood will be out of action, but his move to the IL opens a spot for Beck, 27 in June, to join the club and perhaps make his major league debut in the near future. A fourth round selection of Atlanta in 2018, he came to the Giants in the 2019 deadline deal that sent Mark Melancon the other way. Injuries have been a running theme of his career so far, as he dealt with back issues in college and then a herniated disc limited him to just 37 1/3 innings in 2021.

Last year, he made three Double-A starts before getting bumped to Triple-A. He posted a 5.64 ERA in 97 1/3 innings for the River Cats, who play in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His peripherals paint a nicer picture, as he had a 22.7% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 42.4% ground ball rate, leading to a 4.28 FIP. He has a 3.38 ERA through three Triple-A starts here in 2023. Since being acquired, he’s been featured on many lists of the top prospects in the system and was added to the 40-man in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Giants Planning To Use Ross Stripling Primarily In Relief

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The Giants went into the season with a somewhat fluid rotation. San Francisco added Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to a staff that already included Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood. That left some question about how skipper Gabe Kapler would divvy up the starts, though there’s more clarity a few weeks into the season.

In an appearance on KNBR radio yesterday, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the Giants would primarily use Stripling out of the bullpen for now (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The front office leader indicated Stripling could take an occasional start as needed to keep others rested, essentially functioning in a swing capacity.

The veteran righty is plenty familiar with that kind of role. Stripling has 105 starts and 102 relief appearances at the big league level. He’s worked at least partially in relief during each season of his career. Stripling logged a career-high workload with the Blue Jays last season, tossing 134 1/3 innings over 32 outings. He’d worked in a swing role through the end of May before assuming a full-time rotation job with Toronto. Stripling posted an excellent 3.01 ERA while keeping his walks to a meager 3.7% clip during that season.

San Francisco added Stripling and Manaea on matching contracts — two years and $25MM with an opt-out after the first season. Manaea came out of the bullpen for his first appearance on April 3 but has started his last two outings, including tonight’s extra-inning loss to the Tigers. Stripling, conversely, started on April 2 and was called upon in relief for his next two appearances. It seems that arrangement will continue, at least assuming everyone’s healthy.

Stripling is off to a tough start to his Giants tenure. He’s been tagged for ten runs in as many innings, serving up a staggering six longballs. His velocity and swing-and-miss rates remain in line with last season’s respective marks but the volume of hard contact in the early going has been untenable.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive judgments on the acquisition. There’s plenty of time left in the season. Stripling figures to get consistent rotation run at some point again since virtually no club makes it through a full season without encountering starting pitching injuries. Still, it’s not the start the Giants or Stripling had envisioned — particularly since the inclusion of the opt-out clause in his deal gave Stripling a path to retesting free agency after replicating last year’s success as a starting pitcher.

Manaea’s early results have also been a little rocky. The southpaw has surrendered six runs in 11 1/3 frames, albeit with a solid 13:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Manaea has come out with an early-season velocity spike, though, offering optimism he’ll improve his performance over the coming weeks. He entered play Friday averaging 94.5 MPH on his sinker. That’s more than three ticks above last year’s 91.2 MPH average heater. Manaea topped the 97 MPH mark for the first time in his career during his relief outing, per Brooks Baseball. His velocity predictably wasn’t quite that high during his first start but the 94.2 MPH average fastball he demonstrated was higher than in any of his outings last season.

Blue Jays Notes: Stripling, Jansen, Kirk, Tiedemann

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Ross Stripling played two and a half campaigns in Toronto after being acquired from the Dodgers in a 2020 deadline trade. The right-hander had a quality second full season as a Blue Jay, throwing 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball over 32 outings (24 starts) last year. It was a well-timed return to his early-career form, as Stripling hit free agency for the first time this offseason.

That set the stage for a two-year, $25MM pact with the Giants — one which allowed him to opt out and retest the market next offseason after collecting half that sum. Stripling tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet the incumbent Jays were among four teams that remained in the bidding throughout the process and said the club was willing to match the $25MM guarantee. However, he indicated the Giants’ willingness to include the opt-out was a decisive factor in his call to head to San Francisco. “I loved my time in Toronto and they were in the mix to the very end,” he told Davidi. “Essentially what it came down to was the Giants offered me an opt-out after the first year and the Blue Jays wouldn’t. That made it a no-brainer, really. … Once (the opt-out) was on the board, it was like, man, you can’t walk away from that. It’s as simple as that.”

The 33-year-old Stripling pointed to the three-year, $63MM deal which Toronto gave Chris Bassitt headed into his age-34 season as an example of the kind of earning power he could have next winter if he pitches well in San Francisco. Stripling began last year in a swing role after struggling between 2020-21. Replicating last season’s production over a full rotation workload could position him as one of the more intruding mid-rotation options in next winter’s class.

In other Toronto news:

  • Manager John Schneider discussed the team’s catching duo, telling reporters the club isn’t planning to utilize the likes of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk at designated hitter as often as they did last season (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). While Jansen was only penciled into the DH spot three times, Kirk was in the lineup for 50 such contests. Curtailing that workload isn’t too surprising considering the Jays signed Brandon Belt away from San Francisco to work as the primary DH. Belt’s 2022 season was cut short by a knee procedure but Toronto nevertheless rolled the dice on a $9.3MM free agent deal. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked in at first base, Belt is likely to log the vast majority of his work at the bat-only position. That’d keep Kirk and Jansen behind the dish, with Schneider estimating there’ll be a “pretty even split” at the position. Matheson notes that Kirk figures to be behind the dish for Alek Manoah’s starts. An injury to Belt could change the calculus but the current plan seems to be for the Jays to use their backstops a little less often to keep them fresher. Toronto’s enviable depth at the position allowed them to deal top prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona to add Daulton Varsho to the outfield.
  • Moreno’s departure vaulted left-hander Ricky Tiedemann to the top of the Jays’ farm rankings at Baseball America. The 6’4″ hurler had a breakout showing in his first fill professional season, reaching Double-A at age 20. Now one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Tiedemann has been in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee. The youngster recently experienced a bit of soreness in his throwing shoulder, Schneider told reporters (including Hazel Mae). It doesn’t seem the club is particularly concerned, as the manager indicated Tiedemann could throw a side session on Wednesday after being shut down for a few days. The former third-round pick isn’t a candidate to break camp with the big league club; he figures to start the season at Double-A New Hampshire if healthy.

Giants Sign Ross Stripling

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1:05pm: The Giants announced the signing.

11:58am: The Giants have agreed to a two-year, $25MM contract with free-agent righty Ross Stripling, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Stripling, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be able to opt out of the contract after the 2023 season. It’s the exact same set of terms the Giants used to reel in lefty Sean Manaea earlier this week.

The contract contains a $5MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in equal $2.5MM installments — one in 2023 and one in 2024, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Stripling will also earn a $7.5MM salary this coming season before deciding whether to opt out of a $12.5MM salary for the 2024 campaign.

Stripling, 33, is surely a familiar face for Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose time as Dodgers general manager overlapped with Stripling’s time in Los Angeles. The veteran righty has served as a swingman for much of his time in the Majors, often functioning as a sixth starter with the Dodgers or with the Blue Jays, who acquired him at the 2020 trade deadline.

The 2022 season, however, saw Stripling step into a full-time rotation role when the Jays lost lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery. Stripling proved to be a godsend, making 24 starts and pitching to a 2.92 ERA in 123 1/3 innings out of the rotation. That’s an average of just over five frames per start, but Stripling’s results were nothing short of excellent.

In Stripling, the Giants will add a versatile arm who’s had success in multiple roles. He won’t overpower many hitters with a fastball that averaged just 91.9 mph, but Stripling offsets a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate with a solid 43.8% grounder rate and some of the best command in the Majors. This past season’s 3.7% walk rate was the third-lowest mark of any pitcher to throw at least 100 innings in 2022, and his 11% swinging-strike rate and 37.9% opponents’ chase rate at least suggest that there’s some strikeout upside even with the pedestrian velocity.

It bears mentioning that from 2020-21, Stripling logged an unsightly 5.14 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 150 2/3 innings between the Dodgers and Jays, due in no small part to a mammoth average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. However, the long ball hasn’t been a prominent source of trouble for him outside those two seasons, and he registered a career-best 0.8 homer per nine frames this past season. Aside from that two-year rough patch, Stripling carries a sub-4.00 ERA in his other five MLB campaigns.

For the Giants, Stripling adds even more depth to an already strong group of potential starters. He joins the aforementioned Manaea as a complement to ace Logan Webb, lefty Alex Wood and righties Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani. The Giants also enjoyed a nice rebound from swingman Jakob Junis in 2022, giving them at least seven rotation options on the big league roster.

It’s fair to wonder whether the addition of Stripling more formally removes the Giants from the bidding on free-agent ace Carlos Rodon, who opted out of the second year of his contract in San Francisco and has reportedly been seeking a deal of at least six to seven years in length this winter. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported yesterday that the Giants remained in pursuit of Rodon even after agreeing to terms with Manaea, but Stripling further crowds the pitching staff.

Regardless of whether Rodon remains in the cards, the forthcoming additions of Manaea and Stripling position the Giants well in the event of injuries arising elsewhere on the starting staff. That’s critical for the Giants, given the health track records of several of their in-house options. DeSclafani tossed only 19 innings in 2022 due to a tendon injury in his ankle that ultimately required surgery. Wood and Cobb worked a mostly full slate of starts last year, but Cobb pitched just 158 innings from 2019-21 and Wood logged only 48 1/3 innings from 2019-20 due to shoulder and neck woes. Even Webb, who worked a team-high 192 1/3 innings in 2022, missed a few weeks in 2021 due to a shoulder strain.

After bringing Stripling into the fold, the Giants are up to a projected $157.6MM payroll for the upcoming season and a luxury-tax ledger just north of $180MM, per Roster Resource. They’re still more than $40MM south of their franchise-record $200.5MM Opening Day payroll and more than $50MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier. That type of payroll space sets the stage for another marquee addition, should the Giants find a deal to their liking. They’ve already added Manaea, Stripling and Mitch Haniger, in addition to retaining Joc Pederson on a qualifying offer, but the Giants have been linked to Rodon and are one of the primary suitors for free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa, so the Stripling pact surely isn’t their final move of the offseason.

Mets Looking To Add Third Starting Pitcher, Interested In Ross Stripling

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The Mets have already been active in the starting pitching market this winter, adding Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.6MM deal before bringing in Jose Quintana for two-years, $26MM. Yet they’re not stopping there, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that the team is telling agents at the Winter Meetings they plan to obtain a third starter this off-season. Sherman cites Japanese star Kodai Senga and Ross Stripling as two players the team is interested in, while also exploring other options on the trade and free agent market.

While the Mets have been linked to a number of starting pitchers this winter beyond the two they’ve signed, their reported interest in Stripling is new. He’s a free agent after a strong platform year in Toronto, where he tossed 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. He struck out batters at a below-average 20.7% clip, but limited the walks at an impressive 3.7% rate. He doesn’t throw the ball especially hard, mixing in a low-90s fastball with a slider and changeup, as well as a curveball on occasion.

While Stripling, 32, certainly showed enough to be offered starting roles, he’s spent much of his career with the Dodgers and Blue Jays in a hybrid role between the bullpen and rotation. Indeed, just this season Stripling was only pushed into a full-time starting role by the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu. He did average just five frames per outing, but he was thrust into a starting role from the bullpen and starters are going shorter nowadays anyway. Nonetheless, with a full pre-season to ramp up towards a starters workload, it’s certainly possible Stripling handles a bigger workload next year.

Senga would represent a higher upside, but also vastly more expensive option should the Mets go down that route. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $18MM deal for Stripling, whereas Senga was tabbed to get a five-year, $75MM contract. While owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend aggressively to build a contender, their recent moves have taken their luxury tax payroll to an estimated $306MM, and as a second-time offender they’ll pay a 90% tax on any salary over the $293MM mark. Put simply, signing someone like Stripling or Senga would, as things stand, mean the Mets have to pay almost double whatever annual salary is written on their contract.

One option would be to consider ways to lower their payroll, and Sherman does mention that the signing of a third starter could motivate the Mets to trade someone like Carlos Carrasco, who has one-year and $14MM remaining. While the idea of adding a pitching only to subtract another might appear counter-intuitive, the Mets would still be well positioned in their rotation with Verlander, Max Scherzer, Quintana, an external addition and probably David Peterson rounding out the five, with Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez providing depth.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Blue Jays Interested In Andrew Heaney

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The Blue Jays enter the offseason in search of starting pitching, with a few names of note trickling out in the early going. Jon Morosi of MLB.com listed the Jays as a suitor for NPB star Kodai Senga earlier this week, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that southpaw Andrew Heaney is also of interest (Twitter link).

That’s hardly a surprise, as the Jays were one of the teams known to have pursued Heaney when he was a free agent last winter. The former first-rounder instead jumped early to join the Dodgers, inking an $8.5MM deal a few days into the offseason. Heaney will handily beat that sum this time around, as he showed immense promise during what may be his lone season as a Dodger.

Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA this past season, striking out an eye-popping 35.5% of batters faced. He’s always blended solid swing-and-miss stuff with decent control, but this year’s strikeout rate was on another level. Heaney also got a swinging strike on an incredible 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any major league pitcher to top 70 innings.

It’s fairly easy to identify reasons behind that success, as he overhauled his pitch mix on the heels of a 5.83 ERA showing in 2021. Heaney developed a slider that instantly became one of the best offerings of its kind, and he turned to that as his go-to secondary offering. He scrapped his curveball and scaled well back on the use of his changeup, and the results were excellent. Heaney did still give up a fair bit of hard contact — an issue that has plagued him throughout his career — but he missed so many bats he managed an ERA just above 3.00 despite serving up 1.73 home runs per nine innings.

Of course, the black mark on Heaney’s ledger was a pair of injured list stints related to discomfort in his throwing shoulder. Those kept him to 16 appearances (14 starts) and 72 2/3 innings, roughly half a season’s workload. Had Heaney stayed healthy the entire season, he’d quite likely have received a qualifying offer from L.A. The Dodgers were concerned enough with his lack of innings they opted against making a QO, even as they extended the offer to fellow offseason signee Tyler Anderson.

That decision does boost Heaney’s free agent stock for other clubs as he enters his age-32 campaign. Signing him won’t cost a team any draft choices and/or international signing bonus space. He’s already gotten hits from a few rotation-needy teams, with the Jays joining the Mets and Red Sox as clubs known to have checked in.

Certainly, Heaney will be one of a number of players under consideration for the Jays this offseason. General manager Ross Atkins told reporters at this week’s GM meetings the team was looking to add to both the starting rotation and the relief corps (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That could obviously come via free agency or trade, with the team’s catching surplus sure to be a topic of frequent discussion.

Meanwhile, Nicholson-Smith tweeted this week the team has been in touch with Ross Stripling’s camp to express interest in bringing the swingman back. Stripling, who turns 33 this month, bounced back from rough 2020-21 seasons to unexpectedly emerge as one of Toronto’s more reliable arms this year. He started 24 of 32 outings, working to a 3.01 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but a sterling 3.7% walk percentage across 134 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is a first-time free agent and looks to have pitched his way to a multi-year deal.

Toronto’s rotation will be anchored by one of the league’s top 1-2 punches: Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah. The final three spots are question marks to varying degrees. José Berríos will occupy a rotation spot but will look to bounce back from a surprising 5.23 ERA showing. The internal favorites for the fourth and fifth spots appear to be Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White, but neither should be a rotation lock for a hopeful contender. White was battered in 10 outings after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, while Kikuchi pitched himself out of the rotation in a dreadful first season of a three-year free agent deal.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Blue Jays Notes: Stripling, Guerrero Jr., Schneider

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The Blue Jays enter the offseason on the heels of one of the most epic collapses in postseason history. Toronto led the Mariners by a score of 8-1 in the sixth inning of Game 2 of their Wild Card series before Seattle rallied for nine runs in the final four innings en route to a 10-9 series-clinching victory. Saturday’s Game 2 is only the third playoff game ever in which a team came back to win from a deficit of seven runs or more, and holds the record for the largest deficit surmounted in a playoff comeback by a road team.

As the Mariners head to Houston to take on their division rivals in the ALDS, the Blue Jays head into the offseason with a decent idea of what their roster will look like in 2023. Toronto’s current active roster only contains four players, Anthony Bass, David Phelps, Ross Stripling, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who will be free agents this offseason. Since Bradley Jr.’s .524 OPS with the Blue Jays will probably not warrant another opportunity in Toronto, Ross Stripling is the free agent that will receive the majority of the front office’s attention.

Stripling was fantastic in his role as a rotation replacement for Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went down in June with a UCL injury that ultimately resulted in Tommy John surgery. Over 24 starts for the Jays, Stripling accumulated a 2.92 ERA and struck out 100 batters, while walking only 14. Ryu’s injury will likely keep him out for most, if not all of 2023, depending on the speed of his recovery. It seems possible, then, that Stripling could return to Toronto on a multi-year deal and fill a spot in their rotation long-term, since Ryu’s contract expires after 2023.

On the bullpen side, Bass is coming off his finest big-league season in which he posted a cumulative 1.54 ERA out of the bullpen in 70 1/3 innings split between the Miami Marlins and the Blue Jays. Toronto has a $3 million option on Bass for 2023, which they are almost sure to pick up. Phelps also had a fine 2022 out of the ’pen for the Jays, logging a 2.83 ERA in 63 2/3 innings. If they are unable to retain Phelps, they may seek external bullpen help from what is shaping up to be a fairly rich market for free agent relievers.

From a positional perspective, much of the Blue Jays’ offseason discourse will center around locking up their young stars long-term. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will head into his second year of arbitration, and is due for a big pay raise. Guerrero Jr. has said publicly that he is “open” to a long-term extension with the Jays and that he hopes “something can be done” during this offseason. Keeping their franchise cornerstone in Toronto is going to require Jays ownership to dole out the largest contract in franchise history. A theoretical extension for Guerrero Jr., age 23, ought to take him well into his mid-30’s and would dwarf the $150 million in total cash handed to George Springer two years ago. Bo Bichette, who is entering his first year of arbitration, is another extension candidate that the Jays would surely love to keep in Toronto.

The biggest question surrounding Toronto’s offseason is not one regarding players, but of their manager. John Schneider was named interim manager after Charlie Montoyo was fired on July 13. Under Schneider, the Jays went 46-28 and went from holding a half game lead for the third and final AL wild card spot to securing the first wild card spot by a two-game margin. According to Mitch Bannon of SI.com (via Twitter), there is overwhelming support from Blue Jays players for Schneider to return as their manager. Third baseman Matt Chapman was vocal about his support for Schneider after the Jays Game 2 loss, saying that Schneider is “great” for the Jays and “understands the pulse” of the players (via Twitter).

Regardless of whether or not Schneider returns to manage the Blue Jays, Toronto’s roster looks primed to compete for another postseason spot in 2023.

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