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MLBTR Podcast: Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants firing president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and giving the job to Buster Posey (1:15)
  • The Cardinals will replace president of baseball operations John Mozeliak with Chaim Bloom after 2025 (15:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants To Replace General Manager Pete Putila

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The Giants held a press conference today to allow new new president of baseball operations Buster Posey to address the media. During that session, Posey announced that general manager Pete Putila will be given a new role and the franchise will be hiring a new GM. Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X. Chairman Greg Johnson reported at the conference that Posey will retain his seat on the club’s ownership board and has a three-year contract to serve as the POBO (X links from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic).

Putila was hired as the club’s general manager going into the 2023 season, working under then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. He got that gig on the heels of a long run with the Astros. He started with Houston as an intern in 2011, eventually moving up to director of player development and then assistant general manager before jumping to the Giants.

It’s difficult to assign blame and/or credit to someone in Putila’s shoes, who had a notable position on the Giants’ decision-making pyramid for the past two years, but on a staff that involved input from dozens of people. Regardless, it’s not terribly surprising that Posey is looking to find his own lieutenant, as opposed to just inheriting one from the previous regime.

Posey is coming into his gig in fairly unusual circumstances. Many of the people who lead baseball operations departments work their way up the ladder through scouting or analytics channels, gradually getting promotions and moving to more important positions. Posey took a different route, as he was on the field as a player as recently as 2021. Less than a year after announcing his retirement in November of 2021, it was announced in September of 2022 that Posey was joining the club’s ownership board.

At that time, Posey said that he wasn’t “taking on any type of front office role” and that it would be more “hey, let me know where I can help and I’ll help there” approach with his new position. It seems that his role and influence have grown in the past two years. It was reported a couple of weeks back that Posey took a leading role in the Matt Chapman extension negotiations and now he has been given the POBO role with a three-year contract.

Though the club clearly has lots of faith in Posey and he surely has confidence in his own abilities to handle this role, it’s possible that his second-in-command could play a notable role in helping him deal with any parts of the job that he hasn’t fully tackled yet. As such, he probably wants to pick someone that he feels best suits that particular requirement or simply someone that he has a good working relationship with.

For Putila, it seems like he will remain with the club for now but in a changed role of some kind. Prior to joining the Giants, he had interest from other front offices. He was a candidate for Pittsburgh’s general manager vacancy that eventually went to Ben Cherington, for instance. If he has interest for other such vacancies going forward, there would be little standing in the way of him pursuing those now. Clubs generally allow their employees to interview for positions with other teams as long as a promotion is involved, so Putila shouldn’t have any obstacles if another club views him as a possible future GM or POBO.

Giants Fire Farhan Zaidi, Name Buster Posey President Of Baseball Operations

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The Giants announced Monday that they have fired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Franchise icon Buster Posey will serve as the team’s new president of baseball operations, the team announced. Posey is one of six on the Giants’ board of directors and will now oversee the roster’s construction as well. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first reported that Zaidi, who was under contract through the 2025 season (with a 2026 option), was being dismissed.

“We appreciate Farhan’s commitment to the organization and his passion for making an impact in our community during six years with the Giants,” chairman Greg Johnson said in statement within today’s press release. “Ultimately, the results have not been what we had hoped, and while that responsibility is shared by all of us, we have decided that a change is necessary. While these decisions are not easy, we believe it is time for new leadership to elevate our team so we can consistently contend for championships. I wish Farhan and his family nothing but the best moving forward.

“As we look ahead, I’m excited to share that Buster Posey will now take on a greater role as the new President of Baseball Operations. We are looking for someone who can define, direct and lead this franchise’s baseball philosophy and we feel that Buster is the perfect fit. Buster has the demeanor, intelligence and drive to do this job, and we are confident that he and [manager] Bob Melvin will work together to bring winning baseball to San Francisco.”

The writing has in many ways been on the wall for Zaidi for some time now. The 2024 season was viewed as a pivotal one for the Giants, who unsuccessfully pursued Shohei Ohtani over the offseason and instead wound up signing Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler and Jordan Hicks as they looked to get back on track after consecutive losing seasons. The Giants won 107 games under Zaidi in 2021 but have not had a winning season under his watch otherwise. The lack of consistent results prompted many to wonder whether Zaidi could survive another sub-.500 season.

The most telltale portent for change, however, came late this summer, when the Giants announced a six-year, $151MM contract extension for the aforementioned Chapman. Signing the star third baseman on the heels of a down season proved to be a home run swing for Zaidi & Co., as Chapman rebounded with one of the best seasons of his career. However, The Athletic reported not long after the extension was completed that Posey had stepped in to run point on negotiations after ownership had become “frustrated” with the lack of early progress in talks.

The Giants had plenty of individual player acquisition successes under Zaidi’s watch. San Francisco became a destination for pitchers looking to turn their careers around, as veterans like Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Anthony DeSclafani, Drew Smyly, Drew Pomeranz and Derek Holland all strong seasons at Oracle Park before cashing in on more lucrative deals (Holland’s in a one-year return to the Giants that did not pan out as well). Gausman’s resurgence, in particular, proved to be a major win for the Giants. He thrived on a one-year deal during the Covid-shortened 2020 season, accepted a qualifying offer that winter, and was dominant in a full season in ’21.

That list of successes is also emblematic of another hallmark of Zaidi’s tenure, however: an aversion to long-term spending. The Giants opted to let Gausman walk in free agency rather than commit long-term. His five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays has been a bargain for Toronto thus far. Similarly, the Giants let Carlos Rodon depart after his own tremendous season in orange and black, although the early returns on his six-year deal with the Yankees might have the Giants feeling better about that decision than the Gausman one. The Giants did pay up to keep DeSclafani, who returned on a three-year, $36MM contract after a terrific 2021 season, but that contract almost immediately went south.

On the position-player side of things, the Giants have struggled to attract hitters to their spacious park and to develop key contributors. Zaidi’s early tenure included some unmitigated successes in terms of bargain bin shopping. He acquired Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Donovan Solano, Thairo Estrada and Darin Ruf for next to nothing. All became vital regulars or role players for several years. But the Giants were also unable to land big fish like Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper, while the attempted 13-year deal with Carlos Correa was scuttled by medical concerns.

The Giants have regularly pivoted to Plan B or Plan C after missing on big-name free agents — as they did last year following Ohtani’s deal in L.A. — and have a much spottier track record on those deals. Soler, Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto all fell well shy of being the middle-of-the-order presences the Giants hoped. It’s too early to tell how the aforementioned six-year deal for Lee will play out after his season ended early due to shoulder surgery, but the sheer magnitude of that $113MM contract was a surprise to some in the industry.

The missteps weren’t all limited to the team’s pursuit of big bats. San Francisco has also had its share of misses on smaller-scale free agent investments; Tommy La Stella, Luke Jackson, Ross Stripling and Tom Murphy have all fallen shy of expectations. La Stella was released before the final season of his three-year deal. Jackson and Stripling were shipped out in salary-dump deals. Murphy’s signing — which helped push Joey Bart out of town and over to Pittsburgh, where he enjoyed a breakout year — has been a flop thus far and could make him a salary dump candidate himself this winter.

Posey will now be tasked with engineering a turnaround at the stadium he called home for the entirety of his 12-year playing career. His instantaneous ascension to president of baseball operations is far more surprising than Zaidi’s departure. Posey joined the Giants’ board of directors barely two years ago, when he purchased a minority stake in the team.

At the time, it seemed to be little more than a ceremonial move from a beloved player. Posey even stated at the time of the announcement that he was not taking on any type of front office role and that he was viewing his new role as “another opportunity for me to learn more about the game, more about the business and really commit my time to an organization in a city that I’ve grown to love.”

What happens from here remains to be seen, of course. Johnson’s statement did not indicate that general manager Pete Putila is in any danger of being dismissed, though even if he stays on board, he’d be second on the team’s baseball operations hierarchy, behind Posey. Longtime assistant general manager Jeremy Shelley remains with the club as well. Still, today’s press release did include a reference to conducting searches for any “open positions.” Virtually any change at the top of a baseball operations department is eventually accompanied by some personnel changes down the ladder, so it remains possible there are still some alterations to the tapestry of the Giants’ front office that have yet to come to light.

Posey, of course, has no baseball operations experience outside of whatever interactions occurred between him and Chapman earlier this summer. He’s likely been at least tangentially involved in some roster construction elements since purchasing his stake in the club, but he’s never held any sort of baseball operations title and more or less went directly from the team’s everyday catcher to minority owner, purchasing his share of the club less than one calendar year after playing his final game.

It’s rare, albeit not unprecedented in today’s game, for someone to be tabbed as a baseball operations leader with zero prior baseball operations experience. Agents Brodie Van Wagenen and Dave Stewart (a former big leaguer himself, of course) were hired as the general managers for the Mets and Diamondbacks within the past decade, respectively. Neither lasted more than a few seasons in their posts, however. Current Rangers general manager Chris Young pitched in the majors until 2017 and was working in the league’s central offices as MLB’s senior vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy when Texas hired him as GM under then-president Jon Daniels.

Posey’s ascension to the top of a baseball operations department is far more sudden and rapid than any of those executives. Van Wagenen had been one of the highest-profile agents in the sport for more than a decade, negotiating countless contracts — albeit on the other side of the proverbial table. Stewart was retired as a player for nearly 20 years and, like Van Wagenen, had been representing players for quite some time, giving him plenty of familiarity with that side of the game. Young wasn’t much further removed from his playing days but had spent two years working in the league’s central offices. He was also hired as the No. 2 executive on the Rangers’ front office chart and spent more than two years working under Daniels before being promoted to the top post in Arlington.

Posey will now be tasked with revamping a Giants roster that has regularly lacked star power, relied heavily on platoons and has too often been permeated by aging players with waning athleticism. He’ll simultaneously need to build up a farm system that’s regarded as lackluster and work to improve a player development operation that has frequently seen top prospects either underperform or fizzle out. Homegrown talents like Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald and Patrick Bailey all look like viable core pieces. But a number of the team’s other top prospects over the years — Bart, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, Hunter Bishop, Will Bednar, Casey Schmitt — have not developed as hoped.

The $151MM Chapman extension signals that even with this change in baseball operations, the Giants aren’t planning on taking any kind of step back. They’ll look to get back into competition in the National League West next year and do so alongside a perennial Dodgers powerhouse, an ascendant Padres club and a D-backs squad that went to the World Series as recently as last season. It’s a tall order for any executive, let alone a rookie one — though Posey’s last rookie season certainly produced strong results.

Latest On Matt Chapman Extension Negotiations

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About two weeks ago, in the late hours of September 4 Pacific Time, it was announced that the Giants and third baseman Matt Chapman agreed to a six-year, $151MM extension to keep him from opting out of his contract and returning to free agency. In recent days, a report from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic characterized the negotiations as unusual, with former player Buster Posey dealing directly with Chapman, working around Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and Chapman’s agent Scott Boras. Posey is a minority owner of the club and a part of its board of directors.

This seemed to suggest that the club’s ownership group was losing faith in Zaidi as its top baseball decision maker. Today, a report from John Shea and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle frames the negotiations differently. Per the report, which readers are encouraged to check out in full, Zaidi has been in the hospital a couple of times lately with an undisclosed medical issue, conducting business from there, and the involvement from other staff members was fairly normal in the context of his health-related absences. Today’s report from the Chronicle suggests that the previous reporting from The Athletic overstated Posey’s role in the whole affair. Both Boras and Zaidi spoke to the Chronicle and admitted that Posey was involved, which they both welcomed, but they pushed back on the idea that this was some kind of subterfuge operation.

“Any report that suggests that Farhan and I did not negotiate the financial package is inaccurate,” Boras told the Chronicle. “The years and guarantee totals presented to Matt were a product of a two-week negotiation conducted with Farhan and me while he was in and out of the hospital. As with most long-term contracts, once you have agreement on financial terms, there are ancillary contract terms – guarantee language, no-trade provisions, charitable donations, signing bonus and salary payment structure – that are commonly completed by other team officials. Once the ancillary terms were completed, Farhan and I exchanged a letter of agreement Monday afternoon (Sept. 2), and the agreement was concluded.” Zaidi framed things similarly.

Despite the different picture of the negotiations, the report does acknowledge that Zaidi appears to be on the hot seat. Per the Chronicle, the club’s board of directors wants to wait for the final weeks of the season to play out before deciding on Zaidi’s future. If his job security is tied to the Giants’ on-field performance, he may indeed be in trouble. They have gone 5-9 in September, bringing their season-long record down to 73-78. The remaining schedule is fairly strong. They play the Orioles twice more before three games each against the Royals, Diamondbacks and Cardinals.

There has been plenty of smoke around Zaidi and the front office lately, on the heels of a few years of tepid results. The club went 107-55 under his watch in 2021 but that record fell to 81-81 in 2022, then 79-83 last year and might be even lower this year. A week ago, a report from Shea revealed that the contracts of Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin are only guaranteed through 2025 and not 2026, as previously believed. Both contracts have some sort of club option structure for 2026 but nothing is locked in and the details of the options aren’t publicly known. That was followed by the report from The Athletic suggesting that the ownership group grew frustrated by a lack of progress in the Chapman talks and dispatched Posey to take the reins.

Today’s report frames things in a way that’s less detrimental to Zaidi but still doesn’t back away from the notion that he is in trouble. Per Shea and Slusser today, the owners will do whatever they think is best for the team, regardless of Zaidi’s contract situation and are “taking a hard look” at him. Whether all this smoke is indicative of a firing is something that will perhaps be revealed in the coming weeks and months.

Report: Buster Posey Spearheaded Extension Talks With Matt Chapman

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The Giants’ six-year, $151MM extension for third baseman Matt Chapman marked a departure from the organization’s reluctance to commit to players on long-term deals under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though perhaps there’s an explanation for that. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that Giants ownership was “frustrated” by the lack of progress in talks between Zaidi and Chapman’s agent, Scott Boras, and intervened. Franchise icon Buster Posey, who bought a minority stake in the team in 2022 and is one of six members on the board of directors, took a lead role in the talks and negotiated the framework of the deal with Chapman himself, according to Baggarly. Readers are highly encouraged to check out the piece in full, as it contains a slew of details on the unusual nature of the Chapman negotiations.

Posey personally taking on such a prominent role in a franchise-altering negotiation is a potentially damning indictment on Zaidi’s status within the organization. The sixth-year president of baseball operations signed an extension just last year, but what was originally reported as a three-year contract has since been revealed to be a two-year contract covering the 2024-25 seasons and containing what’s effectively a club option for the 2026 season.

It’s not clear that the pair of reports, which surfaced within a week of one another, is evidence that Zaidi is on the proverbial hot seat. At the same time, it seems fair to infer — particularly in light of the revelation regarding his contract — that he’s not on quite as steady ground as it may have seemed even a few weeks ago. Giants ownership has publicly backed Zaidi whenever given the opportunity, but Posey’s prominent role in Chapman’s extension only raises questions of potential dissatisfaction. The Giants won’t be reaching the postseason this year, and they’re tracking toward what would be a fifth losing season in six under Zaidi’s tenure.

While the end result is the same regardless of who’s negotiating the contract, the journey to that agreement is notable. Maybe this was just a one-off where the board felt Posey, as a former player, could appeal directly to a player he’s gotten to know over the course of the current season. If things have reached the point where ownership has genuinely lost faith in Zaidi’s vision and/or his ability to close deals, that would be a far more alarming development and likely the portent for a change of note in the front office.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Giants have signed plenty of free agents under Zaidi’s watch (MLBTR Contract Tracker link). The majority have been short-term pacts, however. The Giants let successfully rehabilitated pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon walk rather than pay market price for either pitcher. (The latter decision seems wise; the former is regrettable.) They pursued Bryce Harper in free agency but reportedly stopped just $20MM or so short of Harper’s eventual contract with the Phillies. A pursuit of Aaron Judge ultimately only served to drive up the price for the Yankees, who kept their homegrown star. A massive 13-year deal with Carlos Correa was scuttled when the Giants raised concerns about Correa’s physical.

Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (six years, $113MM) is the only free agent the Giants have signed for more than Jordan Hicks’ four years or more than Blake Snell’s $62MM guarantee. The aversion to long-term deals has certainly kept the Giants’ payroll outlook clean, but the results on the lower-cost free agent deals made have frequently failed to pan out. Mitch Haniger and Jorge Soler both signed three-year deals and were both dumped in salary-driven trades before the second season of said contracts commenced. Tommy La Stella was released two years into a three-year contract. The Giants dumped the final season of Anthony DeSclafani’s three-year deal on the Mariners along with Haniger. The second season of Ross Stripling’s two-year deal was sent to the A’s in a salary dump deal. Michael Conforto has been a roughly league-average bat over the life of his two-year, $36MM deal. Smaller-scale two-year deals for Luke Jackson (dumped along with Soler) and Tom Murphy have backfired.

Zaidi undoubtedly built plenty of goodwill with home-run signings of Gausman, Drew Smyly, Derek Holland and (the first time) DeSclafani. Low-cost pickups of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf, Donovan Solano and Thairo Estrada (among others) have also been unmitigated successes. But many of those early success stories have since moved on, while others have seen their effectiveness fade. And the recent low-cost acquisitions haven’t had the same level of impact on the organization, while the farm has seen several top prospects stall out.

All of that is vital context when trying to ascertain what the Chapman report signals for Zaidi and his future with the organization. Zaidi himself downplayed the scenario to Baggarly, suggesting he and ownership worked “in sync” and telling Baggarly that ownership involvement is to be expected on a contract of this magnitude. That’s true, broadly speaking, though ownership circumventing both the front office and the player agent to hammer out a deal is not typical business.

Given the Giants’ likely interest in keeping Snell — another Boras client — the manner in which the Chapman deal came together is all the more intriguing. The Boras Corporation also represents a significant number of free agents this offseason: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, J.D. Martinez, Nick Martinez, Sean Manaea and Tyler O’Neill are among the most notable Boras clients that could be on the market this winter (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Agency Database).

Buster Posey Joins San Francisco Giants’ Ownership Group

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The San Francisco Giants announced Wednesday that recently retired Buster Posey has returned to the famed organization, albeit as an owner. The 12-year veteran has purchased an unknown minority share in the Giants’ ownership group, recently valued by Forbes at $3.5B. Moreover, Posey will also serve on the Giants’ board of directors. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times first reported that Posey was joining the ownership group and being added to the board of directors.

When discussing the addition of Posey to the ownership team, Greg Johnson, the Giants’ chairman, told Kepner that the two of them want to bridge “the trust gap that exists because of the structure in baseball,” and that Posey is “somebody there that’s respected by the players and part of our ownership group.”

Posey reiterated this idea saying, “I want to be viewed as, like, pro-baseball … I’m not pro-player, I’m not pro-owner, I just love the game of baseball, and this is another opportunity for me to learn more about the game, more about the business and really commit my time to an organization in a city that I’ve grown to love.” Posey, however, clarified that he’s not “taking on any type of front office role” and that he’s going to take a more “hey, let me know where I can help and I’ll help there” approach with his new position.

Posey was originally drafted by the Los Angeles Angeles of Anaheim in the 50th round of the 2005 MLB Draft but chose not to sign and attended Florida State University. Three years later, Posey would be drafted 5th overall in the 2008 MLB draft by the Giants and never looked back, making his Giants debut in 2009 and winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2010. Over the next 10 seasons, Posey would bring home an NL MVP trophy, three World Series rings, five Silver Slugger awards, a Gold Glove, and appear in 7 All-Star games, before retiring after the 2021 season with a career slash line of .302/.372/.460 for an OPS of .831.

Buster Posey Announces Retirement

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After 12 Major League seasons, Buster Posey has called it a career.  Alongside his wife Kristen, the longtime Giants catcher announced his retirement in a press conference Thursday afternoon.

Going into the offseason, the only question surrounding Posey seemed to be whether the Giants would simply exercise their $22MM club option on the catcher for next season, or if the two sides would work out a longer-term extension.  Posey hit .304/.390/.499 with 18 home runs in 454 plate appearances in 2021, rebounding to prime form after opting out of the 2020 season, and struggling through a 2019 season in the aftermath of hip surgery.

Buster Posey verticalInstead, Posey will now hang up his cleats, ending an outstanding run as a Bay Area icon.  Drafted with the fifth overall pick of the 2008 draft, Posey made his big league debut in 2009 and then won Rookie Of The Year honors in 2010, helping lead the Giants to their first World Series title since 1954.

That was the first of three championship rings for Posey, as he became the face of this era of Giants baseball.  Posey’s long list of achievements includes the 2012 NL MVP Award, seven All-Star selections, four Silver Slugger Awards, and a Gold Glove in 2016.  He retires with 158 home runs and a career slash line of .302/.372/.460 over 5607 plate appearances, and is likely heading for a Hall Of Fame induction in five years’ time.

While Posey’s outstanding 2021 leaves the impression that he has plenty left in the tank, it shouldn’t be ignored that at this time last year, a retirement following the 2021 campaign seemed quite plausible, or even likely.  The hip surgery was the latest in a series of notable injuries for Posey throughout his career, including leg and ankle injuries suffered in a collision with Scott Cousins in 2011 (the impetus for MLB changing its rules about baserunners can make contact with catchers while trying to score).  Most troubling, Posey also suffered multiple concussions over the course of his 12 years, and there was long speculation that the Giants would eventually move him over to a semi-permanent first base role.

Posey is only 34 years old, but with all of his accumulated wear-and-tear, it could be that he simply preferred to leave on the high note of a great personal season and the Giants’ 107-win campaign.  Posey and his wife are also the parents of four children, including adopted twin girls born prematurely last summer (which Posey said factored into his decision to opt out of the 2020 season).  There is certainly nothing left to prove for Posey, and he can now enjoy a well-deserved retirement and more time with his family.

While Posey’s role in Giants history can’t truly be replaced, the team hopes it already has a worthy heir apparent in Joey Bart, the second overall pick of the 2018 draft.  Posey’s return to form created some questions about how exactly San Francisco would juggle playing time behind the plate, yet now the catching situation looks like it will consist of Bart and incumbent veteran Curt Casali.  The Giants could quite possibly target another veteran to compete with Casali in Spring Training and provide more backing in case Bart (who has played in only 35 Major League games) needs more time to get acclimated.

San Francisco also now has at least $22MM in extra payroll space next season, not that the team didn’t already have plenty of spending capacity.  The Giants’ surprising 107-win year has left the team well ahead of schedule in their rebuild, and the focus will squarely be on contending for a World Series title in 2022.  While truly big expenditures haven’t been part of the strategy thus far for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, he will have every avenue open to him this winter, whether it be major free agent signings, big-ticket trade acquisitions, re-signing notable in-house free agents like Brandon Belt, or all of the above.

Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic first reported Posey’s decision to retire.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Farhan Zaidi Addresses Giants’ Rotation, Posey, Belt

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This morning, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed the club’s priorities ahead of what’s sure to be a busy offseason (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Zaidi made clear the team regards its starting rotation as its “number one priority.” The Giants’ president also effectively confirmed they intend to bring back Buster Posey (by at least exercising his $22MM club option) and hope to re-sign Brandon Belt for what would be his twelfth season in San Francisco.

That the Giants intend to focus their offseason attention on addressing their needs in the rotation comes as no surprise. Presuming they pay Johnny Cueto’s $5MM buyout rather than pick up his $22MM option, four of the five members of a group that led the club to a 3.44 rotation ERA (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Cueto) are set to hit free agency. Only breakout star Logan Webb, who won’t reach free agency until at least 2026, remains under team control.

Zaidi made clear he hopes to bring back at least some of this year’s rotation, stating that “we want to keep as much of this group together as we can,” but he’ll face stiff competition for several of the arms in question. Gausman figures to be among the top starters on the market (alongside Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman) and won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer that might have scared off some suitors after he accepted the Giants’ QO last winter. DeSclafani (who made $6MM in 2021) and Wood ($3MM) are each in line to land much bigger salaries moving forward after each posted a bounceback year in his first season in the Golden City.

Zaidi’s confirmation that the club plans to keep Posey in the mix for 2022 is similarly unsurprising after the longtime Giants backstop put up a .304/.390/.499 line in 2021 after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club’s intention to either pick up Posey’s 2022 option or sign him to an extension had also already been reported in August by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but Zaidi’s comments reiterate the commitment of Giants’ brass to their franchise catcher. Still, as Posey will be entering his age-35 season, any extension is likely to be on the shorter side, perhaps similar to the two-year pact reached with shortstop Brandon Crawford in June.

Belt put up a similarly excellent .274/.378/.597 line in 2021 (albeit in only 381 plate appearances), so the club will likely face some competition in re-signing the first baseman from two of its three 2010’s title teams. Zaidi told reporters today he’d already been in dialogue with Belt’s representation before the season’s end and they still hope to re-sign him.

After a 107-win season that ended in heartbreaking fashion, the Giants’ desire to run it back with a similar squad is certainly understandable. The Giants have largely bucked the youth wave sweeping the game, and whether or not manager Gabe Kapler can deliver the mix-and-match lineup magic of 2021 for another year remains to be seen. Crucially, so does their ability to bring back the bulk of a rotation that put them in position to lead the big leagues in wins.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Giants Likely To Discuss Extension With Buster Posey

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Heading into the 2021 season, Buster Posey was somewhat of a question mark for the Giants. The former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP had long since cemented his place in franchise lore, but Posey battled hip, hamstring and concussion issues from 2017-19 before opting out of the 2020 season. Posey had hip surgery in Aug. 2018, and his 2019 return wasn’t exactly peak form: .257/.320/.368 with seven home runs in 445 plate appearances.

Even the most bullish Posey fans would’ve been hard-pressed to predict the type of rebound that has since unfolded. Posey has not only returned to form but is arguably in the midst of the finest season of what could end up being a Hall of Fame career. And while his future with the club might not have been certain even four months ago — not with a new front office, a checkered recent injury history and one of the game’s top catching prospects looming in the minors — that no longer appears to be the case.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Giants fully intend to keep Posey beyond the 2021 season — be it via the $22MM club option they hold over him or, perhaps likelier, on a multi-year extension like the two-year deal just brokered with shortstop Brandon Crawford.

Not long ago, it looked likely that the $22MM option would be declined in favor of a $3MM buyout. Posey, however, has done enough this season to make even that weighty sum look like a bargain. The 34-year-old is currently hitting .325/.418/.540 with 15 home runs, 14 doubles, an excellent 13.5 percent walk rate and a 19.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s been 59 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and that comes during a season in which the average catcher has produced been 11 percent worse than league-average at the plate.

The Giants were able to get an in-season extension done with the aforementioned Crawford, but Posey suggested this week that he’s content to take a more patient approach. “For me, I think I’ll get to the end of the season and kind of assess at that point,” he told reporters, including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). “Talk to my wife and see where we are.”

Posey will play the 2022 season at 35, so the Giants surely would like to keep any new multi-year investments relatively short. Both the pricing of his club option and some recent contracts for Posey’s peers give some points of comparison. Posey will play next season at age 35 — the same age at which Yadier Molina’s three-year, $60MM contract with the Cardinals began in 2018. (He’s since re-signed on a one-year, $9MM deal after his production waned late in that three-year deal.) Meanwhile, J.T. Realmuto set a nominal average-annual-value record for catchers when he inked a five-year, $115.5MM contract with the Phillies this past offseason.

Any contractual talks with Posey will come with ramifications for top catching prospect Joey Bart, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The 24-year-old previously looked to be the Giants’ heir-apparent behind the plate, but Posey’s resurgence has thrown a wrench into those plans. Bart is enjoying a very strong season in Triple-A Sacramento, hitting .314/.379/.536 in 214 plate appearances. He made his big league debut, somewhat out of necessity, back in 2020 and scuffled with a .233/.288/.320 output in 111 plate appearances.

Bart already saw his name pop up on the rumor mill this summer, and a Posey extension would only further push teams to inquire about the possibility of prying him away from the Giants. That said, retaining Posey certainly doesn’t mean that Bart would become superfluous. Depth is always critical, particularly behind the plate, and while the Giants already have a very fine backup catcher in Curt Casali, he’s a free agent after the 2022 season.

It’s also quite possible that there will be a designated hitter implemented in the National League as soon as next year. Additionally, Posey has seen plenty of time at first base over the years, which could create additional opportunities for Bart. Incumbent first baseman Brandon Belt is a free agent at season’s end.

Depending on what happens with Belt and the universal DH, there could even be enough room for the Giants to carry three catchers on the roster in 2021 while still getting a reasonable number of at-bats for the whole trio. Those decisions will fall under the “good problem to have” umbrella whenever they more firmly present themselves. For the time being, the focus will be on finding terms that are agreeable both to Posey and to the team following the seven-time All-Star’s remarkable rebound.

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