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Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Rockies Re-Sign Chris Owings To Minors Deal

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  • The Rockies have re-signed utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league deal, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 29-year-old slashed .268/.318/.439 with two home runs over 44 trips to the plate as a Rockie in 2020. In all, Owings – a former Diamondback, Red Sox and Royal – has hit .241/.285/.367 with 36 homers and 76 steals in 2,346 plate appearances as a major leaguer.

Daniel Murphy Retires

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 National League Championship Series MVP Daniel Murphy is retiring from baseball after a 12-year Major League career, he tells SNY’s Andy Martino.

Daniel Murphy | Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

“This is a beautiful game, and I really just feel humbled and blessed that it let me jump on the ride for a little bit,” Murphy tells Martino. “It’s beautiful. It can teach you about so many things. And all I can say is, thank you.” Mets fans, in particular, will want to read Martino’s interview for dozens of quotes, stories and reflections on his time in New York, as well as additional thoughts from teammate and captain David Wright.

A 13th-round pick by the Mets back in 2006, Murphy made his MLB debut just two years later at the age of 23. He solidified a spot on the Mets’ roster with a strong showing in both 2008 and 2009, but a knee sprain late in Spring Training 2010 and a subsequent torn MCL suffered on a Triple-A rehab stint later that year wiped out his entire 2010 campaign.

Murphy returned to the field in 2011 and had his best year yet, hitting .320/.362/.448 in 423 trips to the plate. His offense over the next few years took a step back, but he settled in as an above-average contributor capable of seeing time at multiple positions. Late in the 2015 season, however, as the Mets were driving toward the postseason, Murphy took his game to new heights. He slugged 10 home runs after the All-Star break while hitting .285/.318/.500 through 280 trips to the plate, but he saved the best for a legendary postseason run that brought the Mets to the brink of a championship.

Thirty years old at the time, Murphy was a man on fire that October. He appeared in all 14 of the Mets’ games and posted a combined .328/.391/.724 batting line, belting seven home runs and a pair of doubles while scoring 13 runs and knocking in 11. Incredibly, Murphy homered in six consecutive playoff games during that Herculean performance — including a go-ahead, sixth inning shot of Zack Greinke in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS and one in all four games of the Mets’ NLCS sweep of the Cubs. Wright tells Martino that Murphy’s 2015 postseason was “one of the most impressive things I ever witnessed on a baseball field.”

Murphy parlayed that brilliant postseason effort into a three-year deal with the Nationals, and while the club didn’t win its World Series until after he’d departed, that was through no fault of Murphy’s. He had his best season in 2016, his first year with the Nats, hitting .347/.390/.595 en route to a second-place finish in National League MVP voting. He hit .329/.380/.550 in his two and a half seasons with the Nats before being traded to the Cubs (and continuing to rake) — more than justifying the $37.5MM price of his contract.

From there, Murphy would sign a two-year deal to serve as the Rockies’ primary first baseman, but injuries took their toll during his time in Colorado. Murphy suffered a significant fracture in his finger after just two games, and though he was expected to miss at least a month at the time, he returned to the lineup just shy of four weeks later. Murphy swung a hot bat early on, but it seemed clear that the hand was bothering him; his hard-hit rate and exit velocities dropped precipitously that year, and his power wasn’t close to its peak levels despite playing his home games at Coors Field. Murphy posted a .279/.328/.452 line on the whole that year, and he followed it up with a .236/.275/.333 showing in 40 games in 2020’s shortened schedule.

All told, Murphy is a three-time All-Star, NLCS MVP and two-time Silver Slugger with a second-place MVP finish on his resume. He played in a dozen MLB seasons, hitting a combined .296/.341/.455 with 1,572 hits, 178 home runs, 371 doubles, 29 triples, 68 stolen bases, 710 runs scored and 735 runs driven in. Murphy tacked on eight more home runs and an OPS just shy of 1.000 in 25 postseason games split between the Mets, the Nats and the Cubs.

Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

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The Phillies narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimately strike out on Gregorius, Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto lurk as free agents, or the Phils could turn to the trade market to make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither club has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

  • With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
  • The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

 

No Progress Towards Extensions For Rockies And Trevor Story

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  • Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.

No Extension Talks Between Rockies, Kyle Freeland

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Denver native Kyle Freeland was a revelation for the Rockies in his sophomore season, posting a 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP over 202 1/3 innings. Two years later, however, and the Rockies have yet to discuss an extension with their homegrown star, writes the Athletic’s Nick Groke. Freeland’s 2018 was an almost as a magical affair, so starved is the Rockies franchise for a cornerstone rotation piece. The bubble burst in 2019, of course, as his run prevention numbers ballooned to a 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP. He found a middle ground over 70 2/3 innings in 2020, logging a 4.33 ERA/4.65 FIP with a 15.1 percent strikeout rate, 7.6 percent walk rate, and 51.5 percent groundball rate. Freeland agreed to a $5.025MM deal for 2021 on Friday, and he has two more seasons of arbitration before reaching free agency. Given the range of outcomes Freeland has already seen across four seasons, he’s likely to go year-to-year until reaching free agency after 2023. Let’s stay out west and check in with the Angels…

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Rockies, Mychal Givens Avoid Arbitration

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The Rockies and right-handed reliever Mychal Givens have avoided arbitration with a $4.05MM agreement for 2021, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. MLBTR had projected a $3.4MM to $4.3MM arbitration salary for Givens, who’s entering his last season of arb control.

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]

Givens joined the Rockies in a trade with the Orioles last August, a time when the Rox were hoping to earn a playoff berth, but the team fell out of contention during the last month of the season. Givens didn’t necessarily help their cause, as he allowed seven earned runs in 9 1/3 innings during his Rockies debut. Between Colorado and Baltimore, Givens finished the season with an acceptable 3.63 ERA/4.31 SIERA and a 26.9 percent strikeout rate across 22 1/3 frames, though a 10.8 percent walk rate and a career-low groundball percentage of 23.2 percent helped lead to his issues.

Since he debuted in the majors in 2015, Givens has pitched to a 3.41 ERA/3.35 SIERA with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate and a 9.4 percent walk rate over 345 1/3 frames. Putting up numbers like those in 2021 would make it easier for Givens to cash in as a free agent next winter.

Rockies, Antonio Senzatela Avoid Arbitration

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The Rockies and right-hander Antonio Senzatela have avoided arbitration with a $3MM agreement, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. MLBTR projected Senzatela would make anywhere from $2.2MM to $4.9MM in arbitration.

The 25-year-old Senzatela was an oft-utilized member of the Rockies’ pitching staff for the fourth straight season in 2020, which has been his best campaign to date. Senzatela finished second on the Rockies in starts (12) and innings (73 1/3), paced their starters in ERA (3.44), and notched impressive walk and groundball percentages of 5.9 and 50.8, respectively. However, despite averaging upward of 94 mph on his fastball, Senzatela posted a meager 13.5 percent strikeout rate and did not perform especially well by Statcast’s standards.

The Rockies will be able to control Senzatela through 2023, as he’ll also be eligible for arbitration in each of the next two offseasons.

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