Astros Rumors

Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani

By Jeff Todd | March 11, 2019 at 9:53pm CDT

The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.

Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:

The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.

Injury Notes: Dodgers, Mariners, Altuve, Mets

By Connor Byrne | March 10, 2019 at 1:43pm CDT

The Dodgers expect their top two starters, left-hander Clayton Kershaw and right-hander Walker Buehler, and shortstop Corey Seager to be ready for the beginning of the season, manager Dave Roberts said Sunday (Twitter links via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Kershaw – who has been working back from a shoulder issue for two weeks – is set to throw a bullpen session Monday, while Buehler will throw live batting practice again Tuesday or Wednesday. Though Buehler’s not injured, the Dodgers are taking a careful approach with the 24-year-old wunderkind this spring after he experienced a massive innings increase from 2017-18. The Dodgers have also been cautious with Seager, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery and a left hip procedure.

Manager Scott Servais issued updates on a few key Mariners on Sunday, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Greg Johns of MLB.com (all Twitter links). Third baseman Kyle Seager, brother of the aforementioned Corey Seager, underwent an MRI on Saturday on his injured left wrist. The results aren’t available yet, however. Outfielder Mallex Smith, who has been shelved the past few weeks because of a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, is making progress and could take batting practice Monday. Reliever Hunter Strickland has been unavailable since last Sunday with lower back tightness, but Servais doesn’t think it’s serious, nor should it keep the former Giant out for much longer.
The Astros are shutting down second baseman Jose Altuve “for a few days,” manager A.J. Hinch told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters Sunday. Altuve’s battling left side soreness, though the Astros don’t believe it’s anything “alarming,” and they’re hoping the superstar can return to Grapefruit League action late next week, according to Hinch.
Mets reliever Drew Smith is heading back to New York for an evaluation of his sore right elbow, Tim Healey of Newsday was among those to report. Smith’s attempt to win a season-opening spot in the Mets’ bullpen is on hold as a result. In his first major league action last season, the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.66 FIP with 5.79 K/9 and 1.93 BB/9 over 28 innings.

Injury Notes: Altuve, Duffy, Seager

By TC Zencka and Ty Bradley | March 9, 2019 at 2:57pm CDT

We’ll use this post to keep track of minor injuries throughout the day…

Jose Altuve was scratched from a spring game for the second time in three days due to left side soreness, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Altuve underwent knee surgery in October to repair a patella avulsion fracture in his right knee. Still, the soreness does not appear to be a major cause for concern, as neither Altuve nor manager A.J. Hinch expressed anything but confidence about Altuve’s ability to get back on the field in short order. Altuve has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, hitting the injured list for the first time in eight seasons last year, though he still appeared in 137 games while hitting .316/.386/.451 and accumulating 5.2 rWAR.
Matt Duffy has experienced discomfort in his left hamstring, keeping him from spring action, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. Duffy has played in only one game this spring as a result of the injury, and at this point it’s likely he won’t be ready by Opening Day. The 28-year-old burst onto the scene in his 2015 rookie campaign with San Francisco, slashing .295/.334/.428 on the way to an out-of-nowhere 4.4 fWAR. Achilles injuries muddied his 2016 campaign and cost him all but eight minor-league PAs in 2017, but the former 18th rounder steadied himself at his former third-base home last season, posting a solid 106 wRC+/2.4 fWAR for the upstart Rays.
Mariners 3B Kyle Seager will see be sidelined for “several days” after an ill-advised dive in Friday’s game resulted in an injury to his left wrist, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns details. A slimmed-down Seager had looked to rebound after a sloppy 2018 campaign, which saw the 31-year-old post career-worsts in OBP, SLG, wRC+, and fWAR. His hard-hit rate, though, remained at a robust 37%, and the lefty rededicated himself to nutrition and fitness during a busy offseason at his North Carolina home. Ryon Healy, who made just two appearances at the hot corner last season, figures to get time there in the interim.

Catching Notes: Perez, Royals, Maldonado, Murphy, Red Sox

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2019 at 9:04am CDT

The Royals have insurance on their five-year, $52MM contract with Salvador Perez, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (via Twitter). Specific terms of the policy aren’t clear, though the insurance policy is “believed” to kick in after 90 games. Kansas City will play its 90th game of the season on July 6 this year, after which point Perez will be owed approximately $4.57MM of his $10MM salary through season’s end. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll recoup that entire sum, as specific payments will be dependent on the terms of their policy. (The Mets’ insurance policy on David Wright, for instance, paid the team 75 percent of his salary based on days spent on the 60-day disabled list.) While the loss of Perez stings for the Royals on multiple levels, it seems they’ll at the very least be able to recover a few million dollars in salary, which could conceivably be used to pursue a replacement. Kansas City has been in talks with Martin Maldonado, who switched representation yesterday.

A couple more notes pertaining to the catching market…

The Astros, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter), made Maldonado a two-year offer at the beginning of the offseason. Whether the annual salary that accompanied that offer was deemed insufficient or whether then-agent Scott Boras sought a lengthier pact, turning down the offer does not appear to have been a prudent decision. Of course, such proclamations are easy to make with the benefit of hindsight, and it was surely a far more difficult decision at the time. Many clubs — the Astros, White Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Braves and Dodgers among them — looked like viable on-paper fits for Maldonado and other catchers at the outset of free agency, so exploring the market for his services was only natural. Houston ultimately moved on, adding Robinson Chirinos on a one-year deal, while Maldonado remains unsigned having recently hired a new agent.
Out-of-options Rockies catcher Tom Murphy is making a strong bid for a roster spot with his spring performance, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy is 5-for-16 with a pair of homers and two walks (against six strikeouts), but beyond the raw, small sample of stats he’s posted to date, he’s impressed manager Bud Black with an improved all-around game. “I think ‘Murph’ does a nice job of game-calling,” said Black. “…the whole aspect of his game is much improved over what we saw two years ago and that’s a tribute to ‘Murph.’” Murphy, 28 next month, once sat on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list (2015-16 offseason) but has yet to establish himself. He’s now fighting for a roster spot against veteran Chris Iannetta and a strong defender but light hitter, Tony Wolters.
In his latest Opening Day roster projection for the Red Sox, Ian Browne of MLB.com predicts that Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart will make the roster. That’d leave Sandy Leon as the odd man out, forcing either a trade or a DFA of the defensive-minded veteran. Leon, Browne notes, is arguably the best defender of the bunch and could be a logical fit for the Royals. Swihart, meanwhile, has greater trade value given his former prospect status, upside with the bat and remaining team control. Leon avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.475MM (a partially guaranteed sum that’d become fully guaranteed on Opening Day). He hit just .177/.232/.279 in 288 plate appearances last year but was vastly better in 2016-17. Swihart, meanwhile, is controlled through 2022 and is earning $910K as a first-time arbitration-eligible Super Two player. His .229/.285/.328 line in 207 PAs last year wasn’t much to look at, either, though his playing time was sparse and he’s long been touted for his offensive potential.

West Notes: Verlander, Kershaw, Rangers

By Jeff Todd | March 7, 2019 at 7:58pm CDT

Astros righty Justin Verlander chatted yesterday about his pending free agency with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (all links to Twitter). While he’s keeping an open door to remaining in Houston, it doesn’t sound as if there’s any expectation of reaching a deal this spring. Verlander, who’s still at the top of his game at 36 years of age, reiterated his previously stated intention to pitch well into his forties. That expectation won’t lead him to chase the longest-possible guarantee in free agency, though. Having already secured career earnings in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Verlander says he’ll prioritize annual salary and other considerations while remaining “cognizant” of how his contract fits in the larger market picture. Further to that point, the veteran notes that big deals for this winter’s very best free agents have tended to mask the down-market struggles and number of teams that are not seeking to compete.

Astros, Dallas Keuchel Have Had Recent Discussions

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2019 at 4:59pm CDT

4:59pm: The Astros have made multiple offers to Keuchel, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), including both one and two-year scenarios.

10:26am: The Astros are still in touch with free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel about a potential return to Houston, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney hears similarly, tweeting this morning that the two sides have talked recently but, as of last night, were not close to agreeing to a deal. Heyman notes that the Phillies remain interested on a short-term pact, while MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote Tuesday that Keuchel is still seeking a multi-year pact.

Houston currently has Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh and Wade Miley penciled into the top four spots in the rotation, with Brad Peacock and Framber Valdez vying for the fifth spot in camp (a rotation battle recently explored by The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan). Re-signing Keuchel would push Peacock back into the multi-inning relief role in which he excelled last season. Beyond that, though, bringing Keuchel back into the mix would address the looming rotation void facing the Astros beyond the current season. Each of Verlander, Cole, McHugh and Miley will be a free agent following the 2019 season. Houston has top prospect Forrest Whitley looming in Triple-A and will ideally get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery in 2020, but the absence of even a single current member of the rotation on the books in 2020 does lead to some longer-term uncertainty.

Keuchel, 31, may not be the ace-caliber arm that he was when he took home the American League Cy Young Award in 2015, but he’s still very clearly a solid starter who’d improve just about any rotation in the Majors. Slowed a bit by neck and back injuries in 2016-17 — he still made 49 starts over those two seasons — Keuchel once again crossed the 200-inning threshold in 2018. Last season, he tossed 204 2/3 frames of 3.74 ERA ball with 6.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9 and a 53.7 percent ground-ball rate. Even excluding his pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns in 2014-15 (and that 2015 Cy Young nod), Keuchel has worked to a 3.77 ERA in 518 2/3 innings over the past three years.

Whether his lofty asking price has dropped to the point where the Astros would consider re-signing their homegrown lefty still isn’t clear, though recent talks between the two sides suggest that Houston is hardly closed off to the general concept. Re-signing Keuchel wouldn’t cost the Astros a current draft pick, but it’d prevent them from receiving the compensatory draft selection they’d receive if they allowed him to sign with another club.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

By Steve Adams | March 4, 2019 at 1:33pm CDT

The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.

It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.

While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.

None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.

AL West Notes: Volquez, Astros, Mariners

By Steve Adams | February 28, 2019 at 12:03am CDT

Rangers righty Edinson Volquez pitched in a game setting for the first time in nearly 20 months Wednesday, and while he was tagged for four runs in an inning of work against the Cubs, there were nonetheless signs of encouragement, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Volquez’s first pitch clocked in at 95 mph, and he immediately followed it with a 96 mph heater before eventually running that fastball up to 97 mph. “That’s about as happy as I’ve ever been after a four spot,” new manager Chris Woodward said in reference to Volquez’s day.

The Rangers originally inked Volquez to a two-year minor league contract following the 2017 season, knowing full well that he’d miss all of the 2018 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. Texas selected his contract in advance of the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft this season and will be counting on him, along with holdover Mike Minor and new additions Drew Smyly, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller, to comprise the team’s rotation early in the season.

Here’s a look at some spring scenarios around the AL West…

With the out-of-options Tony Kemp and Tyler White in line to make the Astros’ Opening Day roster, Houston seems likely to carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. That’s a departure from the norm for the organization in recent years but likely a necessity, as the ’Stros would need to risk exposing one of Kemp or White to waivers in order to send either player to the minor leagues. Neither player’s performance in 2018 merits a trip back to Triple-A anyhow. The 27-year-old Kemp hit .263/.351/.392 in just shy of 300 plate appearances with the Astros last season, seeing action at all three outfield spots and at second base. White, meanwhile, turned in a massive .276/.354/.533 line with 12 homers, 12 doubles and three triples in 237 trips to the plate. Currently, White figures to get the lion’s share of plate appearances in the Astros’ designated hitter role, though he can also fill in at either corner-infield position.
Mariners camp in 2019 is filled with veterans who know they could be shipped out in trades at any moment, writes Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, who spoke to general manager Jerry Dipoto about how he manages a roster that is fully cognizant of that uncertainty. “Players generally do well when you tell them the truth,” said Dipoto in emphasizing that he’s been as up front as possible with veterans like Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce (among others). Stone not only spoke with Dipoto, but Encarnacion, Bruce and Kyle Seager about the looming possibility of a trade to another club (be it now or during the regular season) and the manner in which they balance dealing with that knowledge and prepping for the 2019 season.

Latest On Astros’ Rotation Battle

By Jeff Todd | February 27, 2019 at 10:15am CDT

Astros righty Josh James has been diagnosed with a strained right quad, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (links to Twitter). The injury “probably takes [James] out of the conversation” for the club’s final rotation spot, per Hinch.

Fortunately, there’s no reason to believe this injury is of long-term concern. To the contrary, James will remain a candidate to break camp on the MLB roster in a relief role. James, who is days away from his 26th birthday, showed eye-popping stuff in both capacities during a brief but exciting 2018 debut.

So, how will the club fill out its rotation? Hinch specifically ruled out some of the club’s most-hyped young arms, making clear that Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas are still not prepared to jump up to the MLB level (at least as starters).

Rome suggests that there is still a fair bit of competition. Brad Peacock is certainly the most experienced option. He’ll try to fend off younger hurlers Framber Valdez, Brady Rodgers, Cionel Perez, and Rogelio Armenteros.

Until he signs elsewhere, of course, southpaw Dallas Keuchel remains at least a hypothetical possibility. The veteran starter and the Astros’ brass have kept the door open to a return in their public comments, though it seems he’s still hoping to secure a larger commitment from another club.

Projecting Payrolls: Houston Astros

By Rob Huff | February 21, 2019 at 2:36pm CDT

Though Spring Training is underway, let’s move on to our 15th team payroll projection. Below find the links to the earlier posts in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
San Diego Padres

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club whose rebuild earned a World Series win, yet who finds itself with a rotation in flux: the Houston Astros.

Team Leadership

The Astros franchise got off to a bit of a rough start, beginning play in 1962 as the Colt .45s, but the team was obtained by GE Credit and Ford Motor Credit just over a decade later in 1975 as a result of crippling debt related to the building of the Astrodome. Thankfully for the future of baseball in Houston, former Yankees minority owner John McMullen purchased the club in 1979 and oversaw a period of relative stability before selling to Drayton McLane in 1993. McLane’s period of ownership was filled was success, from the Killer Bs to the 2005 National League pennant winners, Astros fans became accustomed to winning. Fans could have been understandably concerned when McLane sold the club at the end of 2011 to Houston businessman Jim Crane. While Crane’s ownership tenure got off to a rocky start, losing 218 games over his first two seasons, the results have been stellar over the past four seasons, particularly the team’s 2017 championship.

This year’s team has been assembled by general manager Jeff Luhnow, who took the reins in Houston in December 2011, shortly after Crane’s purchase was finalized, after nearly a decade running the Cardinals’ scouting department. Luhnow utilized his drafting prowess over his first few drafts to add stars like Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., and Alex Bregman, with others such as Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker close to contributing. Infamously, Luhnow also whiffed on a pair of number one overall picks in right-hander Mark Appel and left-hander Brady Aiken, though Luhnow salvaged his losses by flipping Appel to Philadelphia as a minor piece in the Ken Giles trade and recouping a compensation pick for Aiken going unsigned that became Bregman.

On the whole, it’s difficult to argue with the results that Crane and Luhnow have compiled: they tanked their way to a miserable 176-310 (36.2 percent winning percentage) over their first three years followed by a stellar 374-274 (57.7 percent winning percentage) mark over the last four years.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Astros, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers the transition from McLane to Crane ownership and includes a tank for the ages with winning teams on either side, so this provides an excellent window into what to expect from the club as they rev up to contend again. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

The Astros were in the top half of leaguewide spenders each year from 2005 through 2010 before their 2011 dip. Then Crane tore the whole operation down to the studs, reaching a comical low in 2013. The 2013 Astros began the year with just five players earning north of $1 million — Bud Norris, Carlos Pena, Jose Veras, Erik Bedard, and Wesley Wright — yet Norris, Pena, and Veras were jettisoned in July while Wright was shipped out in mid-August.

The Astros understandably came under fire for their extremely low payroll at the time, but the low spending was justified by the fact that Crane incurred $275 million in debt to purchase the team and by Crane’s own promise that “once our minor league system is filled in, we’ll move up into the top five or 10 in payroll.” It took a few years for the payroll to reach such lofty heights, but by 2018, Houston found themselves with the seventh-highest end-of-season payroll.

Like most teams, the Astros haven’t been that close to the luxury tax threshold, but that changed in 2018 and figures to be a relevant consideration in 2019 as well. While the Astros never blew past their international amateur bonus pools to the extent that some other teams did, they did incur the top penalties and restrictions in 2016, showing a willingness to spend internationally. Nevertheless, their Major League payrolls present a good picture of baseball operations spending.

Future Liabilities

Get ready for Jose Altuve and a whole bunch of soon-to-be free agents.

We’ll start with Altuve, the 2017 American League Most Valuable Player and heart and soul of the franchise. His contract features one more discounted year before leaving $130 million on the books from 2020-24. As long as Altuve continues to produce like an MVP, I suspect that Houston won’t complain.

Moving to the top of the list, Houston has just one more year with Justin Verlander under contract. The team’s marquee trade acquisition in August 2017 after a period of struggles with the Tigers, Verlander was reinvigorated and returned to Cy Young caliber form. Owed a net of $20 million thanks to a contribution from Detroit, Verlander represents a good bargain in 2019 in advance of his first-ever walk year. He did originally have a vesting option for the 2020 season, but Verlander waived the option to facilitate the trade.

Next we find a trio of outfielders with two remaining years of control. 2018 provided a great, and timely, reminder of Michael Brantley’s offensive prowess when healthy, and he figures to set the table near the top of the lineup for the next two seasons. Joining him will be Josh Reddick, whose average power and above-average on-base ability had been a given for years before his BABIP against right-handed pitching surprisingly cratered in 2018. He’s no star, but he’s a good bet to rebound to be an average starter in 2019. Finally, George Springer slipped in the power department in 2019, but his ability to get on base and play a solid defensive outfield kept him valuable. If the power returns, he’ll be a star once again as he nears free agency.

Yuli Gurriel has underwhelmed somewhat since arriving from Cuba, and at 34, there’s not much reason to think he’ll improve dramatically going forward. He’s solid as a regular, though Tyler White’s offensive prowess could render Gurriel susceptible to losing some playing time.

The majority of the remaining guaranteed contracts are one-year commitments. Smith unfortunately ruptured his Achilles in December 2018, so he won’t be expected back until late summer, if at all. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to contribute to the 2019 team. Chirinos, Miley, and Rondon should each play a role on the 2019 squadChirinos may get a crack to take the everyday job, but Houston would probably prefer it if Max Stassi’s 2018 breakout — he posted the second highest framing runs added per Baseball Prospectus despite playing a part-time gig — was a harbinger of things to come. Miley could find himself in the rotation’s fifth spot if Verlander and Gerrit Cole stay healthy while Collin McHugh and Josh James make successful returns to starting. And Rondon remains best-suited for a setup role rather than closing, a job he should stick with provided that Roberto Osuna remains entrenched.

The final contract offers some forward-looking control. New Astro Aledmys Diaz will head to arbitration should the team elect to keep him, although he’ll need to prove his health after spending time on the disabled list in each of his first three Major League seasons.

Houston has done well in avoiding dead money with only the final buyout payment for Singleton allocated to this year’s payroll.

Lest you find yourself wondering why the Astros are such a powerful ball club, let’s take a look at one of the most robust arbitration tables in the game:

There’s some serious star power here.

We’ll start with the starting pitchers. Much like Verlander before him, Cole appears to have been invigorated by his move to Houston. He pitched like an ace in Pittsburgh in 2015, then pitched well but not nearly as well in 2016-17. With the Astros in 2018, Cole was an ace once again. McHugh lost most of his 2017 to injury, then found his rotation job claimed by Cole last year. With Charlie Morton (surely) and Dallas Keuchel (presumably) out the door, McHugh figures to have first dibs on a starting job after excelling in relief last season. Unfortunately, McCullers won’t help his case in 2019 as he’ll spend the year recovering from November 2018 Tommy John surgery.

The majority of the Houston bullpen is listed in the table above. It all starts with Osuna, who starred after arriving via trade from Toronto at the end of his 75-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s policy on domestic violence. His baseball abilities are indisputable. His off-the-field activities present the club with significant risk, both with regards to public relations and roster construction. Even in his mid-30s, Harris represents superb value, especially given his ability to stifle batters of both handedness. He is likely in line for a big contract next offseason. Peacock and Pressly both figure to pitch a lot, with Houston hoping to get a lot of innings out of Peacock and high-leverage innings from Pressly. Finally, Devenski starred in long role in 2016, excelled in 2017 — though to a lesser degree than the prior year — then floundered in 2018. He still has some time to kill before free agency.

We close the arbitration table with the two position players. Correa, the 2015 American League Rookie of the Year, produced three nearly identical excellent seasons from 2015-17 before an injury-marred 2018. Just 24, Correa likely has years of stardom ahead of him. Marisnick, on the other hand, seems destined for a part-time gig that accents his defensive and baserunning skills. Outside of 2017, he hasn’t shown enough with his bat to warrant a more significant share of time, especially against same-sided pitching.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

To Crane’s credit, when he stripped the club down to next to nothing, he promised that he’d spend when it made sense…and then he did. But what about pushing payroll even higher? Crane has shown a willingness here, too, commenting in December that, “I’d say if the right situation came long — certainly we’re not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] — but we could move closer to that. We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We’ll stay within the strike zone.” Luhnow hasn’t been as open about the team’s spending plans, but Crane provided plenty of guidance.

After living through a miserable rebuild, Crane seems keenly aware of the value of contending seasons and willing to spend to supplement his winning teams.

Are the Astros a Player for Bryce Harper?

I think that the Astros could be lurking in the shadows for Harper.

The team is smack in the middle of their window of contention, but having just lost Morton and (presumably) Keuchel from their rotation, they could use a boost. They currently have Brantley and Reddick manning the corner outfield spots, but Reddick is eminently tradeable. And that’s why Harper could fit so easily. If Houston offloaded Reddick and a portion of his $13 million annual salary for 2019 and 2020, the cost of Harper would be mitigated. With Harper likely obtaining a contract with opt-out clauses starting in the early 2020s, signing him allows the team to maximize their current window without seriously jeopardizing their ability to keep Altuve, Correa, and Bregman together for a decade or more.

The luxury tax is a serious consideration, but it should be avoidable. I currently have the team’s luxury tax payroll at $181.2 million. If the Astros followed the blueprint above, jettisoning Reddick and signing Harper for, say, $30 million per year, they still might be able to stay south of the tax line.

The Astros have looming rotation questions with the free agencies of Verlander and Cole coming, but building around an offensive core of Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Brantley, Springer, White, and Harper…whew.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

How high is Crane willing to go?

As of now, I have the Astros at $164.9 million with the aforementioned $181.2 tax number. After sporting a $160.4 million payroll in 2018 and mentioning that the books have room to expand, there’s surely room for more.

Projecting just how high that number goes is tricky. The 2018 payroll was achieved by the age-old formula of 2013 payroll times five plus $4 million. What does that tell us for 2019?

All kidding aside, Houston is primed to take another step. Harper represents approximately three additional wins over what Houston figures to get out of right field in 2019, and if Reddick could be unloaded, it makes tons of sense. However, Houston has made such a move yet, so it stands to reason that perhaps Crane isn’t interest in pushing payroll quite this high.

So let’s split the difference here between what it would take to add Harper and where payroll currently stands. This represents a 9.2 percent increase of 2018 spending, a sensible amount for a team in the midst of their best-ever window of contention.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $10.1 million

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