Who’s Blocking Jordan Walker?
The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker with the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. Since then, he’s been charging hard towards the majors, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists.
In 2021, he made his professional debut, splitting his time between Class-A and High-A. In 82 games between those two levels, he hit 14 home runs and stole 14 bases, leading to an excellent .317/.388/.548 batting line and a 151 wRC+. He moved up to Double-A for 2022 and kept it rolling, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 119 games. His .306/.388/.510 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than average. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit .286/.367/.558 over 21 games there.
Now Walker is considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each have him at #4, Keith Law of The Athletic at #5, FanGraphs at #8 and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN at #14. Since Walker has little left to prove at Double-A, he’ll likely be in Triple-A to start 2023, potentially jumping to the majors at any point.
Walker has primarily been a third baseman in his career thus far, as that was the only position he played in 2021. However, an Nolan Arenado-shaped obstacle is stopping him from seeing much time at the hot corner in the big leagues, so the club has started giving Walker some outfield reps. Walker made 68 starts at third in Double-A last year but also 30 in the outfield (24 of those in right). In the fall league, all 21 of his starts were on the grass, with twelve in right field. Prospect evaluators have suggested he is adjusting well to the move, with his strong arm and athleticism likely to help him serve as an above-average defender in the outfield.
As long as Arenado is healthy, Walker will be looking to crack the Cardinals as an outfielder. As of right now, the club’s likely starters out there would be Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar, with Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Moisés Gómez also on the 40-man roster.
O’Neill, 28 in June, is coming off a frustrating season but was tremendous the year before. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. His outfield defense was graded well by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average, with all that leading to 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve. Unfortunately, he made multiple trips to the injured list last year, due to a shoulder impingement and hamstring strain. He only got into 96 games and had diminished results when playing, hitting .228/.308/.392 for a wRC+ of 101.
It’s a somewhat similar trajectory for the 24-year-old Carlson. He hit 18 home runs in 2021 and batted .266/.343/.437 for a wRC+ of 113, but slipped to eight homers and a .236/.316/.380 line last year for a wRC+ of 100. He also went to the IL a couple of times, though he still played 128 games on the year. However, he got strong grades for his work in center field, with 6 DRS, 3 OAA and 1.8 UZR last year in just 530 innings. He seems to be the favorite to take over up the middle with Harrison Bader now a Yankee, though O’Neill and Nootbaar can both also play there.
Nootbaar, 25, hasn’t really had a full season as a big leaguer yet, as he was optioned to the minors three times last year. However, he seemed to take off after his final recall in mid-July. From that point on, he walked in an excellent 16.7% of his trips to the plate, just barely trailing his 17.1% strikeout rate. He hit 11 home runs in that stretch and slashed .240/.367/.490 as part of the second half surge.
Yepez, 25 next week, is more of a corner infielder who can play one of the outfield corners from time to time. His work on the grass hasn’t been graded well and he likely won’t be an everyday option. However, his potent bat will be in the mix for time as the designated hitter, which could still have an impact on Walker’s path to the bigs. Yepez hit 12 home runs in a 76-game debut last year, leading to a batting line of .253/.296/.447 and a wRC+ of 109. Burleson, 24, is somewhat similar, as his bat is considered a stronger part of his game than his defense. He didn’t hit much in his 16-game debut last year but his Triple-A batting line was .331/.372/.532 thanks to launching 20 homers. Gómez, 24, has yet to make his MLB debut but got himself a spot on the 40-man after a strong 2022. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .294/.371/.624 for a wRC+ of 149.
Out of all of these players, the only one to have qualified for arbitration so far is O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he’s not slated to reach free agency until after 2024. The others still have many years of affordable control. Once Walker is deemed ready for a move to the big leagues, the outfield could start to get crowded in St. Louis. He seems to be headed towards right field as his predominant position, where he could line up with Carlson in center and O’Neill in left most of the time. That would bump Nootbaar into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, which he might be overqualified for if his second half results last year are anywhere close to legit. Perhaps the Cards would think about trading O’Neill next winter, when he has hopefully had a bounceback season in 2023 and will be just one year removed from free agency. That would free up left field for Nootbaar or one of the other young guys.
All of this is contingent on everyone being healthy, of course, as even a single injury could unclog the situation in a hurry. But there’s a lot of talent here for the Cards, as their player development pipeline seems to churn out quality big leaguers at an incredible rate. However, even top prospects don’t always find immediate success in the big leagues. Walker has yet to even reach Triple-A, so some more patience might be required, though it feels fairly inevitable that the Cards will be able to work from an outfield surplus again at some point, even though they just traded Bader at last year’s deadline.
Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?
The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.
The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.
The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.
Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.
What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.
Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.
One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”
The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.
Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.
For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.
McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.
Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.
Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.
Poll: Can The Rockies Play .500 This Year?
The Rockies nabbed a Wild Card spot in two straight years, getting into the postseason in 2017 and 2018. However, the past four years have been a struggle. They slipped to 71-91 in 2019, followed that up with a 26-34 showing in the shortened 2020 season and then won 74 and 68 games in the past two years.
Despite that rough slide, owner Dick Monfort is maintaining external optimism. “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball,” he recently said.
Suddenly finding an extra 10-15 wins would likely have to come from internal improvements, as the roster hasn’t changed much relative to last year. Their most notable free agent departures included Carlos Estévez, José Iglesias, Chad Kuhl and Alex Colomé. One other name on that list was José Ureña, though he was eventually re-signed and will be back with the club this year. Garrett Hampson also departed the roster when he was non-tendered, as did Chad Smith and Connor Joe via small trades.
The Rockies have also made a few additions to the roster, of course, but mostly younger players and a few relievers. Infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones, who has 28 games of MLB experience, was acquired from the Guardians. Connor Seabold and his six career starts were acquired for cash considerations or a player to be named later after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The bullpen got a few new faces when Brent Suter and Nick Mears were claimed off waivers and free agent Pierce Johnson was signed to a one-year deal.
Those changes will all have impacts, though none jump out as franchise-altering moves like the Kris Bryant signing from a year ago. A healthy Bryant is probably the club’s best chance at improving their fortunes, as he was only able to play 42 games last year. He mashed when on the field, hitting .306/.376/.475 for a wRC+ of 125, and the Rockies would surely love to have that kind of production over a larger sample.
The outfield mix will have holdovers in Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, Randal Grichuk but could also get a boost if Jones breaks out. He came up as a third base prospect but moved to the outfield since Cleveland had José Ramírez at the hot corner. The Rockies will likely keep him on the grass since they have Ryan McMahon at third. Jones has hit very well in the minors despite a high strikeout rate. In 655 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s been punched out at a 28.4% rate but drawn walks at a 13.7% clip, hit 22 home runs and stole 14 bases. His .252/.361/.443 slash line at that level amounts to a 117 wRC+. He didn’t quite reach that level of production in his first taste of the majors, but it was a very brief debut. Sean Bouchard could also be a factor here, as he hit .300/.404/.635 for a 150 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He kept it going in a 27-game MLB debut by hitting .297/.454/.500 for a wRC+ of 158, though he won’t sustain a 21.6% walk rate or .404 batting average on balls in play.
On the infield, McMahon, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers will still be around. The biggest change relative to last year will be that Iglesias has departed and prospect Ezequiel Tovar has seemingly been given the job. It’s an aggressive move given his youth and inexperience. He began last year in Double-A and crushed it, hitting .318/.386/.545 for a wRC+ of 153 over 66 games. A hip/groin injury kept him out of action for all of July and August, but the club promoted him to Triple-A when he was healthy in September. After just five games there, he got promoted to the big leagues for nine games as the season was winding down. Tovar is considered one of the top prospects in the league but he’s just 21 years old and has only 14 games played above the Double-A level.
Another X-factor on the infield could be Michael Toglia, who is primarily a first baseman though he’s also played a bit of right field. With Cron still under contract for one more year, he’s not being relied upon in the same way as Tovar, but he could force his way into more playing time or fill in for an injury. His MLB debut last year didn’t go well, but he hit 30 home runs in 114 minor league games for a batting line of .249/.341/.510 and a wRC+ of 124. Elehuris Montero could also be in play here, as the corner infielder hit .310/.392/.541 in Triple-A last year, though he also struggled in his first taste of the majors.
At the catcher position, Elias Díaz will be looking for a bounceback after his 18 home runs in 2021 were cut in half to nine last year. He also walked less and struck out more, leading to a .228/.281/.368 batting line and 67 wRC+, a drop from 91 the year before. His defense was also graded far worse, leading to a wide swing from posting 1.6 fWAR two years ago but -1.4 last year.
In the rotation, Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be back at the front, but it gets murky after that. Antonio Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, meaning he could return soon, but that remains to be seen. Ureña seems to have laid claim to another spot, though the last time he posted an ERA under 5.00 was 2018. Austin Gomber could be in the mix, though he posted a 5.56 ERA last year. Seabold has some good Triple-A results but has struggled in the majors thus far and will have to get acclimated to the Coors Field experience. Other options on the 40-man include Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner, Ryan Rolison and Noah Davis.
In the bullpen, the Rockies will be without Estévez, who has been a quietly effective reliever of late. His triple-digit fastball helped him post a 3.94 ERA over the past two seasons, not too shabby for a guy who takes the mound at altitude half the time. Daniel Bard will still be present in the closer’s role, but the club will try to replace Estévez with Johnson, Suter, Mears and Dinelson Lamet, whom they grabbed off waivers in August of last year.
A few things will need to go right for the Rockies to make a huge jump in the win column. A healthy and productive season from Bryant would be great, as would a return to form from Díaz and a healthy Senzatela. Younger players like Tovar, Jones, Toglia, Montero and Bouchard taking steps forward would be a huge help. But the pitching staff has big question marks and there’s also the matter of what other clubs have done. The Padres have added Xander Bogaerts and various other players in order to build off their strong 2022. The Giants didn’t make a huge addition but added several strong players such as Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. The Dodgers have been fairly quiet but are still loaded with talent and coming off a 111-win season. The Diamondbacks have tons of exciting young prospects and a big surge seems possible. 2023 will have a more balanced schedule, meaning the Rockies will play outside their division more often, but most American League teams are in good shape, as are the clubs in the NL East. The NL Central is seen by many as weaker, but the Cubs and Pirates have both made efforts to be better than they were in 2022.
What do you think? Is Monfort right? Can this club play .500 ball? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Are The Rockies A .500 Team?
-
Not even close. 55% (3,249)
-
I'd put them a bit below. 36% (2,121)
-
I think they're right on the line. 8% (454)
-
Probably a bit better. 1% (88)
-
Way better. 1% (49)
Total votes: 5,961
The Nationals’ Breakout Late-Career Rookie
Very little went right for the Nationals in 2022. They limped to an MLB-worst 55-107 record but lost out on the first overall pick in the inaugural draft lottery. Their year was primarily defined by ownership uncertainty and the continuation of a rebuild they’d kicked off at the 2021 trade deadline — culminating in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster in recent memory.
That sell-off opened a spot on their 40-man roster. They plugged it by selecting the contract of minor league veteran first baseman Joey Meneses. While it was surely a life-changing moment for a 30-year-old who had played professionally for 12 seasons before receiving his big league call, that transaction didn’t generate much attention outside the nation’s capital. In all likelihood, the Nats’ front office wasn’t convinced Meneses would even hold that roster spot through the offseason.
Meneses instead seized his first MLB opportunity in a way no one would’ve anticipated. He popped 13 home runs and 14 doubles through his first 56 games, compiling a .324/.367/.563 line across 240 plate appearances. That offensive production was 56 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That tied for 12th among qualified hitters in that span, with Meneses placed right alongside a number of All-Stars and Silver Slugger winners.
It’s not entirely fair to say that production came out of nowhere. Meneses had been having a strong season for Triple-A Rochester, where he hit .286/.341/.489 with 20 longballs through 96 games. The right-handed hitter has typically performed well against minor league arms. That was often against younger competition, however. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility, that kept him from getting an MLB chance until last summer. Meneses holding his own offensively at the MLB level wouldn’t have been surprising, but the extent of his production was.
Meneses will certainly need more than two great months to demonstrate he’s capable of sustaining middle-of-the-order production over the long haul. His rookie year isn’t too dissimilar from the .342/.389/.613 line Frank Schwindel posted over 56 games as a 29-year-old rookie for the Cubs in 2021. Schwindel stumbled to a .229/.277/.358 mark in 75 games in year two and is headed to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the upcoming season. Maintaining consistency over multiple years at the major league level is a challenge.
That said, Meneses couldn’t have drawn up a much better start. In addition to his excellent production, he demonstrated some impressive underlying marks. Meneses made contact on an above-average 78.9% of his swings, getting the bat on the ball against pitches both within and outside the strike zone. His plate discipline metrics were roughly average.
Most notably, he made consistent quality contact. Meneses hit the ball hard (an exit velocity above 95 MPH) on 47% of his batted balls. That ranked 42nd among 334 hitters with 150+ batted balls, per Statcast. He hit plenty of line drives and took the ball to all fields with regularity. Meneses isn’t likely to sustain a .371 batting average on balls in play over a full season, but his contact profile suggests that probably won’t regress all the way to the .290 league mark either.
The rebuilding Nationals are in position to give Meneses a chance to cement himself as a regular. Washington took a buy-low flier on Dom Smith to play first base this offseason, though the designated hitter role is still up for grabs. Jeimer Candelario could factor in there but seems likely to play regularly at third base after Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Smith and Candelario themselves are far from sure things after struggling last year.
Meneses isn’t going to continue at last season’s level, but there’s room for his production to regress while remaining better than average. If he can mostly back up his early promise, he’d potentially be a useful trade chip for the Washington club. As a soon to be 31-year-old first baseman, he’s not going to be a long-term core piece coming out of the rebuild.
Another strong first half would make him an intriguing deadline target for a more immediate contender looking for offensive help. Even if he establishes himself as a permanent big leaguer, Meneses won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 season. That affordability would be of obvious appeal to both low-budget franchises and bigger spenders that are approaching or into luxury tax territory.
Whether he can play his way into legitimate trade candidacy, Meneses makes for one of the better stories on the Washington roster. The Nats aren’t likely to win many games during the upcoming season, with the organization’s greater emphasis on the performance of individual players. Younger former top prospects like CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz are the players the front office and fanbase will be most focused on. There’s room on the margins for role players to perform well enough to net the club some future value in trade as well. Bounceback candidates like Smith, Candelario and Corey Dickerson fit a more traditional mold, though Meneses could be more interesting than any of those established veterans if he can build off a revelatory rookie showing.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Cubs’ Third Base Options
The Cubs have made a number of additions to their lineup, none more impactful than the signing of Dansby Swanson at shortstop. That pushed Nico Hoerner over to second base. Chicago also brought in Cody Bellinger to play center field, signed Tucker Barnhart to share time with Yan Gomes at catcher in place of Willson Contreras, and added Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer for the first base/designated hitter mix.
It was a dramatic overhaul, with the corner outfield tandem of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki the only players whose positions haven’t seemed up in the air at any point. The other position the front office left untouched, third base, looks as if it’ll come down to a battle between a handful of internal options with the free agent market all but picked through. There are two players who have the clearest path to reps at the hot corner in the early going.
Wisdom has been the primary third baseman on Chicago’s north side for the last two seasons. He’s tallied just under 700 plate appearances at the position since the start of 2021, handily topping second-place Matt Duffy (204 PAs in 2021). The only other player with even 100+ trips to the dish as a third baseman, David Bote, lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.
Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason (following a cup of coffee with the MLB club the year before), Wisdom has combined for 53 home runs and 41 doubles in 239 games over the last two years. He carries a .465 slugging percentage and .248 isolated power mark over 909 plate appearances, continually making an impact from a power perspective. The right-handed hitter has paired that with significant on-base concerns, however. He’s hit just .217 while reaching base at a below-average .301 rate. That’s mostly due to massive swing-and-miss in his game, as he’s gone down on strikes in 37% of his plate appearances. That’s the highest rate in the majors for any player with as much playing time, narrowly topping Joey Gallo’s 36.6% clip.
Wisdom’s power has been sufficient to manage a slightly above-average slash line in spite of the contact issues. That’s fine production, particularly when paired with the above-average defensive grades he managed in 2021. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average estimated he was well below average with the glove last season, however, leading both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to value his 2022 campaign around one win above replacement.
The 31-year-old has proven he deserves a spot on an MLB roster and the Cubs have made out exceptionally well on their no-risk signing two years ago. Yet the on-base and defensive concerns suggest Wisdom might be better suited as a role-playing power bat who can rotate through all four corner positions off the bench than as an everyday third baseman. He’s been far better against lefties (.238/.329/.533) than against righties (.209/.290/.438) over the past two seasons.
If the Cubs were to scale back Wisdom’s playing time, Morel would seem to be the primary beneficiary. The 23-year-old made his major league debut last season and generally impressed, albeit with some of the same question marks facing Wisdom. Morel connected on 16 home runs, 19 doubles and four triples in just 435 trips to the plate. He posted an overall .235/.306/.433 line through his first 113 big league contests. That slightly topped Wisdom’s .207/.298/.426 showing from last season.
That said, Morel also struggled significantly to make contact. He struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. Perhaps more alarming was that he swung and missed at 18.1% of the pitches he saw. That was the sixth-highest rate in MLB (minimum 400 PAs), and those concerns became more pronounced down the stretch. Morel carried an impressive .266/.338/.477 line into the All-Star Break despite a 30.7% strikeout rate. In the second half, his strikeout percentage jumped to 34.2% and he limped to a .194/.269/.376 finish.
At age 23, Morel is certainly capable of taking a step forward as he gains experience against big league pitching. He’s long flashed promising power but posted higher than average strikeout totals throughout his time in the minors. Concerns about his bat-to-ball skills kept him from emerging as a top-tier prospect prior to his debut despite evaluators’ praise for his power potential, athleticism and arm strength. Morel’s an interesting player, but one whose approach could make him a volatile offensive performer. He had reverse platoon splits in 2022, hitting .190/.297/.300 against left-handers against a .251/.313/.470 mark versus righties. That’s too small a sample from which to glean meaningful conclusions, though Wisdom’s more traditional splits could point towards him getting a few more reps against left-handed arms than Morel will.
It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball. Morel played mostly infield in the minor leagues, with third base his primary position. The Cubs bounced him around the diamond at the MLB level but deployed him most often in center field, hoping his speed and arm strength would translate. DRS and Statcast agreed he was a below-average center fielder in spite of his athleticism, as his inexperience at the position was evident. He also drew lackluster marks in limited action on the left side of the infield, though the sample in that case was exceedingly small.
Other Options
While Wisdom and Morel seem the two likeliest candidates to battle for playing time, the Cubs have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster. Miles Mastrobuoni, 27, was acquired from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He has only eight MLB games under his belt but hit .300/.377/.469 with 16 homers and 23 stolen bases in 573 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham last year. He’s primarily been a second baseman in the minors but has experience everywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. His left-handed bat would pair well with the righty-hitting Wisdom and Morel if skipper David Ross wanted to play matchups. Mastrobuoni mashed at a .315/.396/.497 clip while holding the platoon advantage in 2022.
Nick Madrigal was displaced by Hoerner’s move to second base. He had a dismal 2022 season, hitting just .249/.305/.282 in 59 games while thrice landing on the injured list thanks to a back strain and strains of both groins. Madrigal had started the previous season with a solid .305/.349/.425 showing for the White Sox before suffering a season-ending hamstring tear. He’s only ever played up the middle dating back to his time at Oregon State — primarily at the keystone — but third base might be the clearest path to getting his bat in the lineup if the front office is still intrigued by his elite bat-to-ball ability.
His 5’8″, 175-pound frame isn’t the build of a traditional third baseman and that’s been manifested in his below-average arm strength. Perhaps that’s untenable at third base, though the Cubs could at least consider getting him some work at the hot corner to expand his defensive flexibility. It’s also at least worth contemplating whether Hoerner could kick to third base if Madrigal earns everyday playing time but isn’t capable of manning the left side of the infield.
The Cubs also picked up Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers in last summer’s Chris Martin trade. The 27-year-old has just a .208/.269/.384 line in 121 big league games over the last three years. He got 171 trips to the plate for the Cubs down the stretch, hitting .206/.272/.361. McKinstry has the ability to play second, third and both corner outfield spots and is a .323/.401/.550 hitter in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He’s out of minor league option years and has to stick on the active roster or be taken off the 40-man entirely. Given his lack of big league track record, he could find himself on the bubble — particularly if the Cubs want to give Mastrobuoni a lengthier look instead.
There are a handful of players behind this group on the depth chart who’ll be in camp as non-roster invitees. Bote, Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young all remain in the organization after clearing waivers in November. Sergio Alcántara signed a minor league deal this offseason, while former second-round pick Chase Strumpf got an MLB invite after hitting .234/.379/.461 with Double-A Tennessee.
———————-
While there are a few candidates who could play their way into consideration, it’d appear the third base job will be a battle between Wisdom and Morel to open the year. Both have minor league options remaining. The former has a more established big league track record, while the latter probably has greater upside but might also be more likely to post untenable numbers on both sides of the ball. They’re broadly similar as right-handed power bats with OBP concerns, though Morel has a little more defensive versatility if he’s relegated to a utility role.
The Volatile Red Sox Rotation
The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.
That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.
From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.
Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?
Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.
The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?
Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.
But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.
Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.
Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.
However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.
Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.
The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?
Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ‘pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.
The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.
Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski
These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.
Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy
These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.
_____
As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.
It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.
Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.
However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.
With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.
AL East
The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.
The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.
The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.
Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas
Effross is a lock for the Yankees‘ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.
The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.
AL Central
Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers‘ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.
Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”
Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.
AL West
It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.
NL East
The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.
Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.
Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez
The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.
The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.
Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg
The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”
NL Central
Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks
Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.
Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone
Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.
The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
NL West
Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley
The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.
Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen
The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.
The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.
The Free Agent Market Still Has A Handful Of Interesting Platoon Bats
Free agency is slim pickings at this point, with very few potential everyday players still available. There are only 13 hitters who appeared in 100+ games last season who remain unsigned. Only ten of those names topped 400 plate appearances, and only three topped 500. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus are the closest thing to surefire everyday players. Yuli Gurriel has been that throughout his MLB career but is headed into his age-39 season and coming off a poor 2022 showing. Given the quiet market, it seems unlikely he’ll be signed as anyone’s primary first baseman at this point.
That trio still has value to big league clubs, of course, and the free-agent market in general still has a handful of names who can be valuable part-time/bench pieces if deployed properly. Some of the following names have long been platooned in the big leagues, while others are perhaps aging their way into that more specialized type of role. Regardless, there are still some remaining names with a track record of doing damage in the proper platoon context. Let’s take a look at who’s left on the market that could still provide some offensive value in the right setting…
Versus Left-Handed Pitching
Robbie Grossman, OF
Grossman was an above-average bat in five of six seasons from 2016-21, with 2019 being the lone exception. He slipped to a .209/.310/.311 output in 477 plate appearances this past season between the Tigers and Braves, but he maintained his long track record of production against left-handed pitching.
The 2019 season — when Grossman didn’t produce much against anyone — is Grossman’s only full season since 2016 in which he wasn’t an unmitigated thorn in the side of lefties. He mashed southpaws at a .320/.436/.443 pace in 2022 and is a career .279/.377/.413 hitter against lefties. The switch-hitting Grossman has had productive stretches against righties, too, though he’s been inconsistent in that regard. He’s strictly a corner outfield/designated hitter option at this point, but he can clearly still do damage against southpaws.
Donovan Solano, INF:
Solano bounced around the infield as a utility option with the Marlins from 2012-15 and, after a brief nine-game look with the Yankees in 2016, fell off the MLB radar entirely until a 2019 resurgence in San Francisco. Solano came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 that year, and while much of that is attributable to a .409 BABIP he was never going to sustain, he’s remained an above-average hitter for three seasons now.
Much of that production has been a matter of Solano holding his own against righties while absolutely clobbering left-handed opponents. He’s posted a solid, albeit rather punchless .289/.342/.397 slash against righties since resurfacing with the Giants, but Solano has tattooed lefties at a .321/.363/.461 clip. It’s partially driven by a still-hefty .365 average on balls in play, but Solano strikes out noticeably less often and hits the ball considerably harder against lefties than he does righties. Solano has been primarily a second baseman/third baseman since returning, though he posted strong defensive marks in 215 innings at first base with the Reds last year. For the right team, he could be considered for everyday work, but he’d be an upgrade to quite a few benches around the league.
Yuli Gurriel, 1B:
Gurriel won a batting title and a Gold Glove in 2021, but the bottom dropped out on his 2022 season. He slashed just .242/.288/.360 this past season, generally mirroring his output from an ugly 2020 campaign.
Even with those dismal all-around numbers, though, Gurriel slashed a more palatable .265/.298/.441 against left-handed pitching — good for a 108 wRC+. Gurriel is a career .282/.333/.474 hitter against left-handed pitching, and as recently as 2021 he obliterated southpaws at a .326/.394/.530 pace (150 wRC+). Defensive metrics soured on Gurriel in 2022 as well, and there’s some obvious concern when a player in his late 30s declines this sharply. Still, he rarely strikes out (12.5% in ’22, 11.2% career) and has enough of a track record against lefties to think he can help a team in a part-time role. He’s been linked to the Twins, Astros and Marlins in recent weeks, though Miami has reportedly backed off on its efforts to sign him.
Versus Right-Handed Pitching
Tyler Naquin, OF
The 31-year-old Naquin split the 2022 season between the Reds and Mets, though both his role and his production declined following a trade from Cincinnati to Queens (even when weighting for the difference in park factors). The extent of the correlation (if any) between those two things can’t be accurately measured, but even with the dip in production post-trade, Naquin finished out the year with a solid .241/.300/.446 slash against righties.
Naquin is just a year removed from batting .283/.339/.514 against right-handed pitching, and he’s a career .274/.326/.468 hitter when holding the platoon advantage. Defensively, he’s best-suited for corner outfield work, although he logged 645 innings in center as recently as 2021. A team looking for an affordable lefty to plug into the outfield corners could do far worse than deploying Naquin as part of a platoon.
David Peralta, OF
Peralta logged the third-most plate appearances against righties of any remaining free agent last season (417) and was the most productive bat left on the market, by measure of wRC+ (116). He slashed .267/.329/.449 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and three triples in such situations, and he’s a career .294/.350/.486 hitter in such situations.
Peralta turned 35 in August, and his defensive grades — once universally above average — were more of a mixed bag in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at minus-5, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him with a plus-5 mark. The longtime Diamondback also saw his numbers crater following a trade to the Rays (.255/.317/.335, no homers in 180 plate appearances), which surely hasn’t helped his cause. Still, there’s little reason to think that stretch of 47 games firmly indicates that he can’t rebound, and the price to find out figures to be pretty light at this point.
Ben Gamel, OF
The 423 plate appearances Gamel logged in 2022 were the second-highest total of his career and his most since recording 550 trips to the plate with the 2017 Mariners. Gamel’s overall track record against right-handed pitching is that of a league-average hitter, although it’s skewed a bit by a pair of shaky seasons that are a few years in the rearview mirror.
In each of the past two seasons, Gamel’s 112 wRC+ against righties has indicated that he’s about 12% better than league-average when holding the platoon advantage. He’s batted .255/.351/.408 through 605 plate appearances in that time, walking at a huge 13.9% clip against a less-encouraging 24.3% strikeout rate. Gamel was a generally solid outfielder defender from 2018-20, but defensive metrics have soured on him as Statcast has increasingly panned his outfield jumps in recent years. He’s also seen his sprint speed decline (though it’s still in the 65th percentile) and his once-above-average arm strength dip to roughly league-average. Gamel was basically a replacement-level player in 2022, but if his defense bounces back at all, he can be a useful role player off the bench.
—
There are certainly more names out there to consider. Catcher Gary Sanchez, for instance, has a solid career batting line against lefties but was well below-average against them in 2022 and actually hasn’t consistently hit southpaws over the past four years now. Edwin Rios has an above-average career line against lefties but in a relatively small sample, and his strikeout rates likely give teams some pause.
The aforementioned Andrus, conversely, was great against lefties in 2022 and has a decent track record against them, but he’ll probably be signed more for his glove and still seems like someone who could land a more regular role. Ditto, to a lesser extent, with regard to Jose Iglesias.
Profar hit both lefties and righties well in 2022 and remains without a team, perhaps due to a lofty asking price early on. Wherever he signs, it seems likely he’ll be in line for more regular work in the outfield, even if it’s at a lower rate than he anticipated earlier in the winter.
Other names might be conspicuous by their absence. Right-handed sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano, however, both have better career numbers against righties than lefties — marginally so in the case of Sano but by a pretty wide gap with regard to Voit. Sano hasn’t had a productive season against lefties since 2019, while Voit saw each of his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage check in shy of .300 against lefties in 2022.
Extension Candidate: Pete Alonso
The Mets hammered out a multi-year deal with one of their top arbitration-eligible players two weeks ago, guaranteeing Jeff McNeil $50MM to extend their window of control by as much as three seasons. General manager Billy Eppler predictably expressed openness to more deals of that nature. Of the other players on the roster, slugger Pete Alonso stands out as the most obvious candidate.
Alonso would certainly cost more than McNeil. He’s already racked up far greater earnings via the arbitration process and he’s nearly three years younger than his infield mate. While they’re each in the same service window — between four and five years of MLB time — Alonso’s in position to cash in to a much greater extent. If discussions between the Mets and his representatives at Apex Baseball get underway, there’s one obvious recent precedent to kick off discussions: division rival Matt Olson.
Within one day of acquiring Olson from the Athletics last spring, the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $162MM guarantee. The deal also came with what looks to be an affordable club option for a ninth season, an almost universal feature in Atlanta’s pre-free agency extensions. Olson’s nine months older than Alonso; he was entering his age-28 campaign last spring, as the Met is now. They obviously play the same position. Olson was in the same 4-5 year service bucket in which Alonso now finds himself, making for a direct comparison.
How do they align as players? Olson had a down season by his standards during his first year with Atlanta. The Braves couldn’t have known that at the time of his extension, however, so any comparison between the two has to isolate Olson’s production through 2021. At that time, he carried a career .252/.348/.511 line in just under 2400 plate appearances — offense that wRC+ calculated as 32 percentage points above league average after accounting for Oakland’s cavernous ballpark. Alonso has a bit under 2300 career trips to the dish and owns a .261/.349/.535 mark, with that production measured 38 points above par. The latter has a slight edge in power production, hitting home runs in around 6.47% of his career plate appearances against Olson’s nearly even 6% rate through 2021.
The power gap probably isn’t as significant as one might expect given Alonso’s status as a two-time Home Run Derby champion and his MLB-best 53 longballs as a rookie, though. Olson makes hard contact more consistently and hits the ball harder on average than Alonso does. Alonso has been a little better at translating his hard contact into home runs, though they’re each clearly elite power threats.
Both hitters have roughly average bat-to-ball skills. Olson carried a career 23.4% strikeout rate into the 2022 season; Alonso has fanned in 22.1% of his trips to the plate. Olson has a patient approach that gives him a slight edge in walks but it’s again a small gap. There’s also very little difference in their performance the year before hypothetical extension talks. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 with 39 homers and a 16.8% strikeout rate in 2021. Alonso’s coming off a .271/.352/.518 showing with 40 longballs and an 18.7% strikeout percentage. His on-base and slugging marks are a little behind Olson’s from the previous season, though that’s largely explainable by the league drop in offense last year. As measured by wRC+, Alonso’s offensive production was 43 points above par while Olson was 47 points better than average in ’21 — again, a minimal distinction.
Given their similarities as hitters, the Olson deal works as a strong starting point for gauging the terms it might take to keep Alonso. Olson has the advantage as a defender. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who’d gotten above-average grades from public metrics throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved crediting him as +34 runs compared to an average first base defender throughout his time in Oakland. Alonso’s glove isn’t as poor as some evaluators had worried during his prospect days, though public metrics paint him as a slightly below-average first baseman. He’s playable but doesn’t add the kind of value there Olson does.
There’s a reasonable debate as to whether Olson’s superior glove negates Alonso’s slight advantage as a power bat and makes him the better overall player. Alonso has a few financial advantages that might tip the scale in his favor in extension negotiations, however.
Alonso was in a better spot with regards to his final two arbitration years. He and the Mets have already agreed to a $14.5MM salary for the upcoming season; Olson had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary for his second-to-last arbitration year. Considering those salaries escalate year-over-year based in large part on a player’s previous salary, Alonso likely would’ve had a similar edge for their final arbitration seasons. It’s not a huge difference but Alonso would likely have earned around $5-6MM more over his final two arbitration campaigns than Olson would have.
That’s not a factor for the would-be free agent years. Olson will be paid $22MM annually for the six free agent seasons he signed away. Considering Alonso’s a comparatively valuable all-around player, that’s a reasonable starting point. However, Alonso’s camp could get an edge from the spike in spending on star talent from this offseason. The best free agents generally surpassed market expectations. Rafael Devers, meanwhile, signed an extension that pays him $31.35MM for ten free agent seasons (though deferrals knocked its actual value to around $29.15MM).
Alonso isn’t likely to get to Devers money. The Red Sox slugger is two years younger, was a season closer to free agency and has more defensive value in his ability to play third base, at least in the short term. Still, the Devers deal is illustrative of the top of the market pushing up in the past 12 months — last spring, the Red Sox were reportedly pointing to Olson money as a comparable factor in talks with Devers but eventually went way beyond that — and Alonso’s camp could reasonably look for something a bit above the Olson average annual value in talks this spring.
It’s also at least worth considering how hard a bargain the Mets might try to drive in negotiations. Owner Steve Cohen and the front office have shown more willingness than any team the past two years to meet lofty asking prices to add star talent. That’s not universal (see: Jacob deGrom) but the Mets haven’t shown much fear of spending, even in the face of an astronomical luxury tax bill. The Braves have a high payroll but not one wildly different from the rest of the league, and this Atlanta front office has shown a knack for extending players at rates many outside observers find at or below market.
There’s room to tinker on the margins, likely to give Alonso the edge, though the Olson deal should be a starting point in any negotiations. Speculatively speaking, perhaps something in the range of eight years and $180.5MM (including this season’s $14.5MM salary) could be mutually agreeable. That’d tack on $166MM in new money for Alonso’s final arbitration season and six free agent years, running through his age-35 campaign. Estimating his final arbitration year around $22MM, it’d represent a $24MM average annual value for the six would-be free agent seasons. Alonso would move the extension market past a similar player in Olson, while the Mets would be able to keep another star in Queens for the foreseeable future.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The White Sox’ Right Field Options
The White Sox have shaken up their outfield picture from last year, a fairly sensible move given their weak results during the 2022 season. The club’s outfielders collectively hit .254/.301/.393 last year for a wRC+ of 97, placing them 18th in the majors. Defensively, the results were even worse, with the club posting -22 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average on the grass, both of those numbers coming in 27th in the league, while their -28.6 Ultimate Zone Rating among outfielders was dead last. At least part of those results could attributed to both Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez missing significant time due to injuries, but it was clear that some change was needed.
The club’s first move was letting José Abreu depart, thus allowing Andrew Vaughn to come in off the grass and take over at first base. Reports emerged in October that this was the course the club was considering, and Abreu signed with the Astros the following month. Vaughn was a huge part of those terrible defensive numbers, as he personally posted a -14 DRS, -16 OAA and -10.5 UZR last year. Now that he can return to his natural position, that could allow the club to deploy a more traditional outfielder in his place, depending how the situation plays out.
The other move the club made was signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM deal. Defensive metrics are somewhat split on his glovework, with OAA considering him subpar while both DRS and UZR are much kinder. Despite that disagreement, it still seems fair to expect the Sox to get better defensive results this year. Vaughn will be on the infield while Jiménez, who is also graded poorly on the grass, seems to be lined up to be the club’s primary designated hitter this year. With Benintendi in left and Robert in center, the club should at least have two competent everyday players in the mix. The question left to be resolved is who will be in right field. The club also lost AJ Pollock when he turned down a player option and signed with the Mariners, in addition to non-tendering Adam Engel, who then signed with the Padres. The right field job has been left open as a battle this spring, so let’s take a look at the candidates.
“Oscar Colas is going to be given every opportunity to see if he can become our right fielder on a daily basis,” manager Pedro Grifol said in an interview a few weeks ago. The prospect has a short track record in affiliated ball and is not yet on the 40-man roster, but it seems the team wants to leave a path open for him to seize a job once he proves himself ready for it.
Now 24 years old, Colas played in Cuba when he was younger, serving as both a hitter and a pitcher. Though some liked to call him the “Cuban Ohtani,” he only logged 3 1/3 innings in Cuba when he was 19 and the comparison never seemed truly appropriate. After spending some time in Japan, Colas was eventually declared a free agent and agreed to terms with the White Sox in 2021. That deal didn’t become official until January of 2022 when a new international signing period began, delaying his debut in affiliated ball until last year. Colas now has one season in the minors under his belt and there’s no denying that it was impressive. He began in High-A before jumping to Double-A and Triple-A, getting 526 plate appearances in 117 total games. He hit 23 home runs in that time and produced a batting line of .314/.371/.524 for a wRC+ of 137.
Those results certainly suggest Colas has earned a shot in the big leagues, but there are also concerns. His work at Triple-A was only a seven-game stint as the season was winding down, and though he hit .387 in that time, he also struck out at a 36.4% rate while walking just 6.1% of the time. It’s a small sample, but plate discipline is the primary red flag on his profile. His strikeout rate wasn’t quite as drastic at the lower levels but increased as he moved up the ranks. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and FanGraphs raise concerns about his propensity for chasing.
He’s not considered a strong enough defender for center field or a burner on the basepaths, with scouts agreeing he makes more sense in right field. He could still be an above-average fielder there, especially because his arm is considered an asset. But corner outfielders are generally expected to produce more offense than center fielders, putting a bit more pressure on his bat. Though the power seems to be legit, the strikeouts could potentially be an Achilles heel. It seems the Sox are open to letting him take a job with a hot spring but he could also warrant a bit more time on the farm after not playing in 2021 and a quick run through the minors last year.
Sheets, 27 in April, has shown some solid work at the plate in his career so far. He debuted in 2021 and launched 11 home runs in 54 games, leading to a .250/.324/.506 slash line and a 124 wRC+. He got his first extended stretch of playing time last year but couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace. He hit 15 home runs over 410 plate appearances and hit .241/.295/.411 overall for a wRC+ of 100, or exactly league average.
The defensive side of his game hasn’t been graded well, however, as Sheets has a -10 DRS, -7 OAA and -6.0 UZR in the outfield so far. He’s only been in the majors a short time but the profile appears limited, supplying power but not much else since he doesn’t run well or get on base at an especially high rate. He seems like the frontrunner to hold down the job until Colas is deemed ready.
Jiménez, 26, certainly provides value with his bat. Despite missing over two months with a hamstring strain last year, he still hit 16 home runs and finished the season with a .295/.358/.500 batting line for a wRC+ of 144. But his defense has been a liability in his career, leading to tallies of -15 DRS, -17 OAA and -8.2 UZR. It seems the club will try to utilize him as a DH for the most part, though not entirely.
“I’m really looking forward to seeing Eloy in right field,” Grifol said recently. “I’m not talking about seeing him there every day, but I’m talking about maybe seeing him there a day or two a week if possible and keeping him athletic and keeping him working on the defensive side, because I know that helps on the offensive side as well.”
Regardless of who’s getting the regular right field reps, it seems Jiménez will be rotated in there a bit. That’s a fine enough plan but situations could always arise where he has to jog out there more often. Last year, for example, Bryce Harper was diagnosed with a torn UCL that kept him from taking the field but allowed him to continue hitting. That forced the Phillies to put Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos out on the grass more often than they initially planned. That’s an extreme example in the sense that Harper was such a good hitter that the Phils had little choice but to allow him to clog up their DH slot for most of the year. However, it still shows that an injury can sometimes throw off a club’s designs for its ideal alignment, and it’s possible such a scenario arises and leads to an extended stretch in the field for Jiménez.
Garcia, 32 in March, is a candidate to help out with Chicago’s unsettled second base position as well as here in right. In his many years with the club, he’s served a super utility role, playing everywhere except first base and catcher. His glovework in the outfield is considered to be around average, though he doesn’t provide much at the plate, with a career batting line of .253/.293/.350. That amounts to a wRC+ of 74, indicating he’s been 26% below league average for his career. He was well off that pace last year, getting into 97 games but hitting just .210/.233/.267 for a wRC+ of just 39. He’s likely to be bouncing around the diamond to fill in wherever he’s needed. That could include some time in right field, but if he’s getting an extended run here it likely means something has gone terribly wrong.
Victor Reyes/Jake Marisnick/Billy Hamilton/Adam Haseley
None of these outfielders are currently on the roster, but they will be in camp as non-roster invitees. In the case of Haseley, he was outrighted in November while the other three were brought aboard on minor league deals. Marisnick and Hamilton are both glove-first veterans who will be 32 years old this year. They could make their way onto the roster as a fourth outfielder at some point, but it will be difficult to earn an everyday role unless there’s a cascade of injuries to other players. Haseley, 27 in April, was once a top-100 prospect with the Phillies, but his bat seems to have stalled out once he got to the game’s upper levels. He has a .262/.323/.364 batting line in 380 MLB plate appearances for a wRC+ of 82. His Triple-A work isn’t impressive either, coming in at .241/.308/.389. His defense is well-regarded and he’s yet to reach arbitration, so he could theoretically carve out a meaningful role if he can take a step forward at the plate. Reyes, 28, is fairly similar, having hit .264/.294/.379 in his career for an 83 wRC+. He has over four years of service time but still has an option remaining.
External Addition
There are still some names available in free agency, such as Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, Tyler Naquin, Ben Gamel, Robbie Grossman and others. Convincing any of them to sign as a placeholder or a part-time player could be difficult, though an injury during Spring Training or the World Baseball Classic could quickly change the whole picture. The club isn’t close to the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold, with Roster Resource currently pegging their number at $205MM. They are, however, getting pretty close to their franchise spending record. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club ran a $193MM figure on Opening Day last year, smashing their previous record of $129MM. Roster Resource has them at $187MM right now, just shy of last year. They could seemingly afford to make an addition if they wanted, but it’s possible they simply don’t want to block Colas and the remaining free agents feel they could probably find better opportunities elsewhere.
____
Though the Sox seem capable of having a better outfield this year, the overall depth does seem to be lacking at the moment. If Colas comes into spring and looks great, then things are probably in good shape. But if he looks a little shaky and goes back to the minors, then Sheets and Jiménez are likely handling things, with both of those guys being defensive liabilities. One injury would suddenly vault Garcia or one of the non-roster guys into an everyday role. More than one injury would really create a problem.