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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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Payroll limitations hung over the Padres’ offseason a bit, impacting their ability to make the kind of splash for which president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has become known. Still, the Friars managed to shuffle their pitching staff with a pair of rotation pickups and the acquisition of an All-Star closer.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $15.25MM
Total spending: $43.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Padres entered the 2021 season as one of the league’s most talented and exciting teams. For a few months, they looked like a bona fide World Series contender, battling with the Dodgers and surprising Giants at the top of the NL West. No team had a more disappointing second half, though, and the Friars were out of playoff contention by the middle of September. Reports of clubhouse discord mounted alongside the losses, and it was obvious there’d be change afoot for a San Diego club that’s not afraid of making big moves.

Even before the regular season officially wrapped, reports trickled out the Padres would dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. They announced that decision in the early days of the postseason, with the managerial search being the Friars’ first big call of the offseason. After their hiring of a first-time skipper, Tingler, didn’t pan out as hoped, it was expected they’d search for a more experienced hand. San Diego was tied to Ron Washington, Buck Showalter, Luis Rojas, Mike Shildt and Ozzie Guillén, but their ultimate hire proved a shock. The Friars signed Bob Melvin away from the A’s on a reported three-year, $12MM deal, landing one of the league’s most highly-regarded managers in the process.

There was little indication Melvin was even under consideration before his hiring was reported, but Oakland allowed him to get out from under the final year of his contract to head south. Melvin would bring along Ryan Christenson as his bench coach, and San Diego went outside the organization to bring in positional coaches Michael Brdar (as hitting coach) and Ruben Niebla (as pitching coach).

Given the reports of behind-the-scenes discontent, a leadership overhaul seemed necessary. Still, it wouldn’t be fair to pin the blame for the team’s second-half collapse entirely on Tingler and his staff, and the Friars entered the winter needing some upgrades on the roster. Injuries to starting pitchers exposed the team’s depth last season, and San Diego’s biggest acquisitions on both the free agent and trade markets would prove to be in the rotation.

The free agent starter San Diego landed was right-hander Nick Martínez, who returned stateside after an excellent three-year run in Japan. That the former Ranger signed with the Padres — where Preller has brought in a ton of familiar faces from his Texas days — shouldn’t have been much of a surprise. Yet the terms of the deal were certainly eyebrow-raising.

Martínez commanded a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee that gives him an opt-out possibility after each of the first three seasons. There’s not a ton of upside to the deal for San Diego, then. If Martínez carries over his mid-rotation production to MLB, he’ll likely hit the open market again next winter; if he scuffles, the Friars would be on the hook for multiple years. San Diego wanted to fortify the back of the rotation for this season, though. If Martínez pitches as well as Preller and company evidently anticipate, he’d be an immediate upgrade in a win-now campaign, and San Diego could reevaluate whether they want to keep him around if/when he opts out.

Also coming over from Japan was reliever Robert Suárez, a star closer in NPB who had never pitched in the majors. Like Martínez, he signed a multi-year deal that afforded him a post-2022 opt-out, although Suárez’s two-year, $11MM commitment isn’t as significant as the Martínez contract. Suárez has averaged 98 MPH on his fastball during his first few weeks in the majors, but he might not even be the Friars’ hardest-throwing bullpen pickup of the winter. San Diego also signed Luis García, owner an upper-90s sinker, to a two-year deal after he had a stellar second-half run with the Cardinals.

Each of Martínez, Suárez and García agreed to terms on December 1, as San Diego got three free agent deals in just before the lockout. (Martínez’s deal was technically finalized after the work stoppage but agreed upon beforehand). Little did anyone know at the time, that trio of signings would be it for the Friars in free agency. The rest of the team’s heavy lifting would be accomplished by trade.

Preller hasn’t been afraid to make notable moves on the trade market. Yet his pre-lockout deals didn’t bring in a ton of impact MLB help. Second baseman Adam Frazier was dealt to the Mariners in advance of the non-tender deadline. San Diego’s big acquisition last summer, Frazier had a rough second half and was a bit superfluous on a roster that already had a fair bit of infield depth. The deal brought back a big league ready southpaw reliever in Ray Kerr, but the payroll ramifications might’ve been the bigger motivation for not keeping Frazier and his projected $7MM+ arbitration salary around (more on that in a bit).

The Marlins found themselves in a similar position with catcher Jorge Alfaro as the Padres had with Frazier. After Alfaro had disappointed as Miami’s starting backstop, the Fish acquired Gold Glover Jacob Stallings shortly before the non-tender date. Alfaro was a virtual lock to be cut loose by Miami, but the Padres jumped in and acquired him for cash or a player to be named later. In so doing, San Diego prevented Alfaro — another former Rangers prospect — from shopping his services around the market. They instead signed him to a $2.725MM deal to avoid arbitration.

San Diego went into the lockout having landed a few players of interest, but they still faced some notable question marks. The corner outfield situation was up in the air, particularly with left fielder Tommy Pham hitting free agency. Eric Hosmer’s eight-year free agent contract hasn’t panned out as hoped, leaving first base as a real issue. The new collective bargaining agreement also added the designated hitter to the National League.

Lineup depth issues loomed all the more large when the team discovered that star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. — who had been involved in a seemingly minor motorcycle accident during the work stoppage — had suffered a small fracture in his left wrist. The team hadn’t been allowed to communicate with Tatís during the lockout, but it quickly became apparent once he’d reported to camp that he required surgery. That’ll keep him out of action for the season’s first few months.

The Padres looked as if they could make another notable free agent splash, particularly with both the corner outfield positions and first base having myriad available free agent options. However, the front office evidently didn’t have a ton of financial maneuverability with which to work. The Padres shattered their franchise-record payroll last year, eclipsing the luxury tax for the first time in the process. San Diego went just narrowly above the $210MM base marker, with their final ledger checking in at $216.5MM. That ownership was willing to push spending forward as the team entered its contention window is commendable, but the decision to so marginally exceed the CBT ended up leaving the Friars in an unsuccessful middle-ground. It wasn’t enough to get last season’s team into the playoffs, while it set San Diego up for escalating penalties as a repeat payor in 2022 if they go past this year’s new $230MM base level.

That, seemingly, is something ownership isn’t prepared to do this time around. Throughout the offseason, reports emerged that San Diego was looking to find a taker for the remaining four years and $59MM on Hosmer’s deal and/or Wil Myers’ $21MM commitment this year (including a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted shortly after the lockout the Padres were “aggressively shopping” Hosmer and Myers. Ultimately, they didn’t find a taker for either player. San Diego and the Mets reportedly made progress on a deal that might’ve seen Hosmer packaged with starter Chris Paddack and reliever Emilio Pagán for first baseman Dominic Smith, but talks ended up falling through. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Mets owner Steve Cohen killed the idea).

With Hosmer and Myers still on the books, San Diego didn’t wind up with enough payroll flexibility to make another impact free agent pickup. Reports linked them with various levels of interest in Freddie Freeman, Seiya Suzuki, Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz and Jorge Soler, but they ultimately turned to the trade market to at least partially address some of the concerns on the roster.

San Diego’s first move was to bring in Luke Voit from the Yankees, sending pitching prospect Justin Lange in exchange. Voit looked like an odd man out in the Bronx after the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, and San Diego took a bounceback flier on a potential middle-of-the-order bat at first base/DH. Voit dealt with various injuries during a disappointing 2021 season, but he led MLB in home runs in 2020 and has generally been an excellent hitter over the past few years. Shortly after the Voit trade, San Diego picked up bat-first utilityman Matt Beaty in a deal with the division-rival Dodgers. Beaty had been designated for assignment by L.A., but he’s been a solid hitter during his MLB tenure and can bounce between the infield and corner outfield.

Even as the Padres explored dealing from their rotation to continue upgrading the offense, San Diego seized on the opportunity to land one of the trade market’s top available arms. In what proved arguably the Friars’ biggest addition of the offseason, they acquired Sean Manaea from the A’s in exchange for depth starter Adrian Martinez and infield prospect Euribiel Angeles. That was a lighter than expected return even for just one season of Manaea, who posted a 3.91 ERA/3.68 SIERA during his final year in Oakland.

The A’s were known to be moving many of their most notable players as part of a huge cost-cutting effort, though, reducing their leverage to extract peak value in any return. At a $9.75MM arbitration salary, Manaea struck an ideal balance for the Padres from a cost perspective. That tab was pricy enough the A’s were inclined to move him, but it’s still well shy of the going rate for a mid-rotation starter on the free agent market. San Diego could afford to take that on while keeping just below the CBT threshold.

Manaea steps into a rotation that also includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Martínez. Mike Clevinger is soon to rejoin that mix after recovering from 2020 Tommy John surgery, and one-time top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore has reached the majors and looked quite sharp through his first few starts. San Diego will still be without lefty Adrián Morejón for much of the season after he underwent Tommy John surgery last April, but players like Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr are a little further down the depth chart.

Between the addition of Martínez, Clevinger’s return and Gore moving back in the right direction after battling mechanical troubles in 2020-21, the Friars felt comfortable that last season’s rotation depth problems won’t be prevalent again. Even after the proposed Paddack/Pagán/Hosmer framework with the Mets fell-through, they pivoted back to trying to find a trade partner for the two right-handers before the start of the season.

That proved to be the Twins, who were on the hunt for another controllable starter. San Diego shipped Paddack, Pagán and a pitching prospect to Minnesota for star reliever Taylor Rogers and affordable corner outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker. The deal was an instance of two win-now teams having needs and roster surpluses that mostly lined up. The Padres were content to relinquish three years of control over Paddack and two seasons of Pagán — both coming off a difficult 2021 campaign — to bolster the late-game mix this season.

Rogers has been one of the game’s best relievers over the past four seasons. The 6’3″ southpaw missed the second half of last year because of a hand injury, but he’d returned to health by Opening Day. San Diego saw closer Mark Melancon depart via free agency, making it all the more appealing to land an elite arm for the final few innings. Rogers joins García, Suárez, former starter Dinelson Lamet, veteran Craig Stammen and the since-injured Pierce Johnson among the core of what could be one of the game’s better bullpens.

Making $7.3MM in his final year of arbitration control, Rogers was set to push the Padres across the luxury tax line. To facilitate the deal, Minnesota agreed to pay his salary down to the league minimum. That allowed San Diego to enter the season with a CBT number of around $229MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They may not have virtually any room for in-season acquisitions of notable cost, but the Padres again head into the year with a star-studded roster that’ll be expected to compete for a division title.

The pitching staff is one of the higher-ceiling units around the league, and that’s also true (albeit to a lesser extent) on the position player side. Austin Nola, Luis Campusano and Alfaro — who had a monster Spring Training — are on hand as the catchers. San Diego felt comfortable enough with that group to deal Víctor Caratini to the Brewers on the eve of Opening Day for minor leaguers Brett Sullivan and Korry Howell.

Around the infield, San Diego has a Hosmer/Voit pairing at first base and DH and stars at second base (Jake Cronenworth) and third base (Manny Machado). Tatís will join them at shortstop midseason, but the Friars called up their top prospect, C.J. Abrams, to open the year there. It was an aggressive assignment for a player with just 42 games of experience above A-ball, and Abrams has gotten off to a rough start. How long they’re willing to stick with the 21-year-old as he experiences growing pains is to be seen, but the Padres could turn to Ha-Seong Kim as a stopgap until Tatís returns if they send Abrams to Triple-A at any point.

San Diego took a few low-cost shots on the corner outfield, adding Beaty and Rooker to incumbent Jurickson Profar in left field. Myers, whom they never dealt, is back in right field (though he hit the injured list this morning). Trent Grisham holds down the center field job he’s had for the past two seasons.

The corner outfield is perhaps the area of the roster most affected by payroll constraints, as they forewent an impressive free agent class. The Padres also came up empty in bigger swings on the trade market, where they reportedly made runs at the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds and the Yankees’ Joey Gallo during Spring Training. Perhaps they could try for a midseason pursuit of Reynolds, Gallo or another outfielder if their in-house options scuffle, but both of those arbitration-eligible stars would push their payroll above the $230MM CBT number. If the luxury tax line is the organization’s cutoff — as the Twins’ paying down the Rogers trade suggests it might be — the current roster may be more or less what the Padres carry for the full 162 games. They’ll probably continue trying to deal Hosmer or Myers to clear space, but it’s even harder to imagine a trade like that coming together midseason than it was over the winter, Hosmer’s hot start notwithstanding.

Have the Friars done enough to overcome Tatís’ injury and hang with the Dodgers and Giants for six months? That’s to be determined, and some of the Padres’ past missteps on long-term deals for Hosmer, Myers and arguably Kim hampered their ability to make any earth-shattering moves over the offseason. Yet the talented core that had so many people excited entering 2021 is still intact. The pickups of Manaea and Martínez, as well as Gore’s emergence, help guard against the rotation injuries that forced the team to trot out the likes of Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez down the stretch last year. Coupled with a change in the manager’s chair, the Friars will hope that superior depth can carry them back to the postseason.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays continued to aggressively shop in both the free agent and trade markets, adding what they hope are the finishing touches on a postseason contender.

Major League Signings

  • Kevin Gausman, SP: Five years, $110MM
  • Yusei Kikuchi, SP: Three years, $36MM
  • Yimi Garcia, RP: Two years, $11MM (includes $1MM buyout of $5MM club option for 2024; option vests for $6MM if Garcia hits innings/appearance thresholds)
  • Andrew Vasquez, RP: One year, $800K
  • 2022 spending: $42.8MM
  • Total spending: $157.8MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Blue Jays headed into the offseason with three of their biggest 2021 contributors entering the free agent market, and the entire trio signed with new teams before the lockout.  Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM deal with the Rangers was the priciest of the bunch, with Robbie Ray also landing five years and $115MM from the Mariners, and Steven Matz receiving a healthy four-year, $44MM payday from the Cardinals.  There wasn’t much expectation that the Blue Jays would re-sign all three of these players, though it perhaps counted as a bit of a surprise that none of the three ended up returning.

Still, given how it was another “in on everyone” offseason for the Jays’ front office, it was clear the team had plenty of contingency plans in the event that all three free agents did indeed leave town.  Since Semien and Ray rejected qualifying offers, the Jays also netted two extra compensatory draft picks, so Toronto will now be picking four times within the first 78 selections of July’s amateur draft.

The Jays dabbled in the pool of qualifying offer free agents themselves, as Toronto was linked to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Taylor, and Michael Conforto.  As for non-QO free agents, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki were two of the more prominent names known to be of interest to Canada’s team.

Amidst all of these targets, the Blue Jays’ biggest pre-lockout strike was a player who had been on the club’s radar for years.  GM Ross Atkins had tried to sign Kevin Gausman in each of the past two offseasons, and the third time was the charm — at the cost of a five-year, $110MM contract.  Gausman would’ve obviously come much cheaper two winters ago when he was coming off a tough 2019 season with the Braves and Reds, but after two outstanding seasons with the Giants, he’d put himself into the top tier of available arms.  At least through four starts of the 2022 season, Gausman has continued to pitch like an ace, showing early signs that his good form can carry over to the tough AL East.

The Blue Jays also moved to lock up an in-house member of their starting staff, extending Jose Berrios for a seven-year, $131MM pact.  The deal kept Berrios off the 2022-23 free agent market, and reinforced the belief that the Jays already showed in the right-hander by giving up prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to acquire Berrios from the Twins at last summer’s trade deadline.

Berrios and manager Charlie Montoyo were the only extensions of note during the Toronto offseason, apart from the club’s two-year pact with trade acquisition Matt Chapman over his two remaining arbitration years.  It seems as though the Blue Jays have yet to really dive into serious extension talks with either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, but with both players controlled through 2025, the clock isn’t ticking too loudly for a long-term deal to be immediately reached.

Once the lockout was over, the Jays added another piece of the rotation puzzle by signing Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $36MM deal.  It was an intriguing bet on a pitcher who was quite inconsistent over his first three Major League seasons, with the 2021 campaign acting as a microcosm of Kikuchi’s duality.  An outstanding first half earned the southpaw a trip to the All-Star Game, yet he struggled so much in the second half that the Mariners (who were fighting for a wild card berth) skipped him in the rotation in the last week of the season.

In essence, the Jays are hoping that pitching coach Pete Walker can straighten out Kikuchi in the same manner that Ray and Matz were revived after coming to Toronto.  As a bit of a hedge, the front-loaded nature of Kikuchi’s contract (he’ll earn $16MM in 2022) could make him a bit easier to eventually unload if he does continue to struggle.

Turning to the bullpen, the Jays made both a notable investment and a lower-cost signing that they hope will pay dividends.  Yimi Garcia was added for $11MM to bring some more experience to the Blue Jays’ fleet of setup men, while David Phelps offers some of that same veteran stature at the lower price of $1.75MM (after Toronto selected Phelps’ minor league contract).  2021 was another injury-marred season for Phelps, who missed all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and was then limited to 65 1/3 innings over the 2019-21 seasons.

With some holes on the pitching staff filled, the question of how to replace Semien stood out as perhaps the biggest issue facing the Blue Jays after the lockout.  The Santiago Espinal/Cavan Biggio tandem was penciled in for either second or third base, depending on which infield position Toronto chose to address with a new addition.

That new add came at the hot corner, as the Blue Jays took advantage of the Athletics’ fire sale by picking up Matt Chapman for a package of four younger players.  Gunnar Hoglund was one of the top prospects in Toronto’s farm system, but since the 2021 first-rounder is coming off Tommy John surgery, the Jays might have considered him more valuable as a trade chip than as a building block.  The other three players dealt (Kevin Smith, Zach Logue, Kirby Snead) are controllable and more ready to play in the majors, with Smith standing out as an interesting pickup for Oakland considering his own high ceiling and prospect status.  Surely the bonus of those two QO compensation picks played into the Jays’ thinking in trading from their prospect depth, especially considering the MVP-candidate production Chapman displayed in 2018-19.

At his best, Chapman is one of the game’s best all-around players, combining Platinum Glove-winning defense with above-average offense.  That bat hasn’t been as dangerous in 2020-21, however, as Chapman has seemingly struggled due to a hip injury that required surgery in September 2020.  In the small sample size of the 2022 season’s first 18 games, Chapman isn’t walking much or generating huge power. He’s cut down on his strikeouts a bit, however, and his hard-contact rate and exit velocity are back in line with his pre-injury numbers.

Considering how many other notable position players the Jays were reportedly exploring, it will make some interesting “what if” debates if Chapman replicates his 2021 struggles.  For instance, Jose Ramirez was rumored to be a Jays trade target for years, and Toronto was never quite able to put together an offer that swayed the Guardians into dealing the All-Star.  (As it turned out, Ramirez stayed put entirely by signing an extension that stands as the largest contract in Cleveland’s franchise history.)

Adding a switch-hitter like Ramirez, or a left-handed bat like Seager, Freeman, or Schwarber would’ve made for a smoother fit at least from a lineup balance standpoint, considering how the Jays’ ideal starting lineup is almost entirely right-handed.  To address this issue, Toronto focused on adding left-handed hitters to its bench, trading for Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, and Zack Collins in a trio of swaps.

The Tapia deal was the highest-profile of the bunch, as he and infield prospect Adrian Pinto were acquired from the Rockies for Randal Grichuk and a little over half of the $18.66MM owed to Grichuk through the 2023 season.  Reports surfaced in December that the Blue Jays had also looked into moving Grichuk to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr., another left-handed hitter (though known more for his standout defense).  Grichuk is off to a scorching (if likely BABIP-aided) start in Colorado, yet after three lackluster seasons in Toronto, the outfielder began to look like an expensive spare part.

If Grichuk does benefit from a change of scenery, the Jays are hoping the same is true for Tapia, Zimmer, and Collins, who were all well-regarded prospects who never broke out with their original teams.  As it has turned out, all three players have seen more action than expected in the early going, due to oblique injuries for both Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen.  Collins has in particular blossomed with this extra playing time, as he has even received some DH at-bats as the Blue Jays have endeavored to keep him in the lineup.

Losing Hernandez, Jansen, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Nate Pearson to the injured list hasn’t done much to slow the Blue Jays down in April, and the team is thus far living up to the high expectations shared by the players, the front office, and the Toronto fanbase.  Given how the Jays clearly have their eyes on a championship, it seems certain that more upgrades are still to come prior to the trade deadline, and the rotation already stands out as a potential area of need in light of Ryu’s health issues and rough outings on the mound.

In the same way that Chapman will be (fairly or unfairly) compared to other star players the Jays “could have” landed instead, Gausman and Kikuchi will be competing in some sense against Verlander, E-Rod, and such pitchers the Blue Jays reportedly discussed in trade talks, such as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle or Luis Castillo.  However, Toronto is hoping that Ross Stripling can fill in for Ryu, and that Pearson can eventually get healthy and provide some extra rotation depth — at least until more reinforcements can be added at the trade deadline.

The team’s approximate $172.3MM payroll is a franchise high, though also not too far beyond what the Blue Jays were spending as recently as 2017.  While a splurge into the $200MM threshold seems unlikely, there hasn’t been any indication that the Jays have hit the top end of their budget, so some payroll space will quite probably be available for more in-season additions.

The good news for the Jays is that even as presently configured, the roster looks like a contender.  While nothing can really be ruled out for a team in win-now mode, much of the heavy lifting has already been done over the offseason to reinforce an already strong core.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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After back-to-back last-place finishes, the Nationals’ headline additions this winter consisted a 41-year-old designated hitter and a host of post-prime retreads from their 2019 title team.

Major League Signings

2022 spend: $25.8MM
Total spend: $25.8MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Nationals loaded up on minor league contracts and familiar faces this winter. They gave out a few Major League contracts, but none that guaranteed a second year. With Juan Soto in the middle of their lineup, the possibility of overachieving into a playoff spot can’t be ruled out, but the Nats chose the prudent path rather than risk more of their future payroll on a present-day fix. They will take another year of Soto’s prime to hold the line and wait to make their next big strike.

The Nationals’ most significant pre-lockout movement was their attempt to sign Soto to a long-term deal. They reportedly offered their young star a 13-year, $350MM extension, which he rejected. That’s not a wholly unreasonable starting place, though there is clearly more work to do on that front.

To that point, much of their work in the early days of the offseason centered on hiring people to work in the front office. They’re slightly more prepared to make the moves they need after doing the work to overhaul their minor league and organizational staff. After losing a number of analysts, the Nats made a number of additions to fill out their development and analyst teams as well.

Complicating matters now is the recent report that the current ownership group might consider selling the franchise. A potential sale would cloud an already difficult extension task for the Nationals and Soto, and there’s no telling how willing a new ownership group would be to spend at the elevated levels that the Lerners have over the years. Any owner would surely attempt to lock down Soto, but who knows how amenable Soto himself would be to jumping immediately into a long-term arrangement with a new owner. Then again, Soto’s younger brother has a verbal agreement to sign with the Nats, as reported by Jesse Doughtery of the Washington Post, which could indicate that Soto is indeed perfectly content with his Nationals experience.

Other than the Soto talks and a minor league deal or two, it was a very quiet pre-lockout period for Washington. After the lockout, they got to work on filling out the short-term roster. They began with a splashy signing, adding Nelson Cruz, one of the most popular and well-respected players in the game. It was a surprising player for the Nationals to key on, no less so in hindsight, seeing as he was the only big-ticket acquisition of the offseason.

The deal itself is a bargain, however, simply for getting a player of Cruz’s standing without a long-term commitment. The contract breaks down as a $12MM salary for 2022 with a $16MM mutual option for 2023. Mutual options are rarely exercised, however, making the $3MM buyout the more likely course. There has been no mention of no-trade protection for Cruz, which is notable because as the club falls out of contention, Cruz will surely be one of the first names mentioned as a trade target. Frankly, at 41, it’s just as likely that Cruz ends up benefiting the team more as a trade asset than as an on-field contributor.

Nonetheless, he ought to provide some lineup protection for Soto. Cruz isn’t likely to see much time in the field, and his presence will largely take away the designated hitter spot as an option for resting Soto and first baseman Josh Bell. If there’s a downside to rostering Cruz, it’s that the narrow range of his utility also limits the malleability of the roster on the whole. Roster flexibility is a means to an end, of course, and if the man they call “Boomstick” can again slug 30 home runs with a 122 wRC+ (as he did last season), there should be no complaining about the fact that he can’t be double-switched into the infield, or what have you, especially with a DH now in the National League.

Elsewhere on offense, the Nationals gave out one-year deals to infielders like they were after-dinner mints. They brought in Dee Strange-Gordon and Maikel Franco, who both made the team. They brought back Alcides Escobar after a surprisingly successful 75-game stint in 2021. At 34-years-old and three years removed from the bigs, Escobar posted a 100 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR over 349 plate appearances. Washington rewarded that solid effort with a cool $1MM to be their everyday shortstop. The price point and expectation for Escobar says a lot about where the Nationals are as a franchise heading into 2022.

Then they brought in Ehire Adrianza for $1.5MM. Adrianza will offset some of the lack of flexibility that Cruz forces onto the roster, as the former Brave can play just about anywhere on the diamond. Their big “get” for the infield was Cesar Hernandez, a defensive stalwart on the wrong side of 30 brought in for one season and $4MM. The Nationals know Hernandez well from his many years in Philadelphia.

In some ways, he’s a typical Nats player: a sure-handed veteran with not enough power and no single skill that wows, but he has a professional composure and a reliability to his game that serves somewhat ironically as a double-edged sword. He’s put up between 1.7 and 2.2 fWAR in each of the last four seasons, and if he does that again for the Nats, who can complain?

None of these deals — Hernandez, Adrianza, Strange-Gordon, Franco, Escobar — carry any risk whatsoever, but there’s not much upside to dream on either. Even the prospect returns are going to be minimal, should they play well enough to merit flipping at the deadline. Beyond simply making sure there was a name on every locker, the approach here is hard to see clearly. Basically, they’re in wait-and-see mode, a judicious, even somewhat stodgy path forward for a franchise that’s shown a willingness to spend when contention was in the offing.

What’s particularly interesting about this bevy of signings is that most of the vets mentioned above play either second base or third, where the Nats ostensibly roster a pair of top prospects in Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia. The sheen may have worn off, but the pair still represent two of Washington’s higher-ceiling players.

So for a franchise desperate for young talent, why block the path to playing time for two of the prospects they do have? The optimistic viewpoint is that these vets allow the Nats to bring Kieboom and Garcia along at the pace their play dictates, thereby maximizing their potential development. The pessimistic viewpoint will see the roster and notice a host of veterans taking at-bats that could be used to develop Kieboom and Garcia.

Kieboom suffered a UCL sprain during camp and somewhat forced their hand, as he’s now on the 60-day injured list with an uncertain timeline to return. In theory, he should be able to begin baseball activities within the next couple of weeks, but he’ll certainly spend time in the minors upon his return to health. Even after the injury, however, Garcia remains in Triple-A, so the Nats are clearly more comfortable giving the 21-year-old time to chart his own course back to the Majors.

The Nats are largely playing an infield of Franco, Escobar, Hernandez, and Bell so far in 2022, a year in which they have one of the best players on the planet patrolling right field. As they try to convince Soto to play out his career in Washington, it’s fair to wonder if the current state of the roster is doing enough to help their cause. Granted, it takes time to build a contender, and the Nationals might have a year or two to play with since they brought Soto up into a title-contending (and title winning) environment. Or maybe he looks at the infield less than two weeks into the season and wonders, as others might, why this roster was the best plan they came up with this winter.

The brunt of the Nats’ offseason efforts focused on building the bullpen. They started by going through the old Rolodex, reconnecting with former Nats’ closer and fav favorite Sean Doolittle. New face Steve Cishek signed on and instantly became the most reliable arm available to manager Dave Martinez. Tyler Clippard, another former Nat, also signed on a minor league deal, but he did not make the team out of camp. Same for Jefry Rodriguez and a host of others brought in on minor league deals. The upper levels of the Nats’ system are weak enough that many of their minor league signings from the winter were simply meant to fill out their Triple-A squad.

Not so for Anibal Sanchez, however. Sanchez and La Mariposa, his butterfly change, made the rotation out of spring training. The 38-year-old making the rotation is a feel-good story for the opportunity it grants the fanbase to relive the glory of the 2019 title team, but it’s also a telltale sign of the team’s greatest weakness. Starting pitching has long been where the organization hangs its hat, but the old consistency of a rotation anchored by Max Scherzer is gone. Or rather, it’s in New York.

As things stand today, however, Sanchez has yet to make his 2022 debut because of a nerve impingement. In fact, three-fifths of their 2019 World-Series-winning rotation is currently on the injured list (Sanchez, Stephen Strasburg, Joe Ross). Scherzer, as mentioned above, is in New York, and Patrick Corbin, the last member of that unit, is the erstwhile “ace” of the 2022 crew. That’s worth mentioning since Corbin has picked up more-or-less where he left off last year, easily the worst of his 11-year career.

Point being, the Nationals, a franchise long-obsessed with starting pitching, made the somewhat curious decision to stand pat where their starters were concerned, save for bringing back Sanchez. Aaron Sanchez was a somewhat intriguing addition on a minor league deal, but like Clippard, he did not make the team out of camp. He’s on the active roster as of today, but regardless, the Nationals have one of the weaker starting pitching units in baseball, and it’s hard to see that as anything but a choice on their part.

Top prospect Cade Cavalli was close to making the team, so maybe the Nats were simply content to give this year over to the younger arms in the organization. Josiah Gray and Joan Adon are in the rotation now, and how quickly they develop could very well be the difference between these Nationals sniffing playoff contention or cascading to a third consecutive last place finish.

After years of contending, the Nationals had to reset. The coffers were empty. They might have just enough time to pull it off, too. With Soto still three years from free agency, they can probably throw away a season and still make enough of an effort to woo him before he hits free agency — but it’s a gamble. Without more of a farm system, however, they did not have much of a choice. Whatever the impetus, the organization made modest gains this winter with an eye on the more distant future.

If the Lerners end up making an earnest effort to find a buyer, the strategy comes into clearer focus. Otherwise, they can’t look too far into the future because of Soto. Still, over the winter at least, they seemed to focus beyond 2022. If there is a benefit to largely standing pat for a winter, it’s that by avoiding financial commitments beyond this season, they can, now, afford to start thinking ahead to 2023 and beyond. Maybe that was the plan all along, but we don’t know for sure until next winter.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Despite coming off an NL-worst 2021 showing, the D-Backs declined to tear things down. They made a couple veteran additions to the bullpen, but they’re mostly rolling things back with last year’s group in hopes of a better showing. They’re not likely to contend this season, but it’ll be an evaluative year for the front office. Perhaps some young players will step in alongside their recently-extended second baseman as core pieces of the future.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $12MM
Total spending: $20.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • Signed 2B Ketel Marte to five-year, $76MM extension (deal also contains $13MM club option for 2028 and buys out up to four free agent seasons)
  • Signed RHP Merrill Kelly to two-year, $18MM extension (deal also contains $7MM club option for 2025 and buys out up to three free agent seasons)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The D-Backs entered the offseason faced with a decision: rebuild, or try to add and be more respectable than they were last year? They chose the latter, declining to move any notable players. It wasn’t an especially active offseason, but the only big leaguer the D-Backs dealt away was out-of-options utilityman Josh VanMeter, who presumably wasn’t going to break camp and would otherwise have been exposed to waivers.

Arizona’s front office has maintained throughout the past few months they don’t believe the roster is anywhere near as bad as last season’s 52-110 record would suggest. To some extent, that’s a justifiable interpretation. The D-Backs were hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation last year. They’ve also got a fairly young, inexperienced position player group, one from which they certainly expect some members to take steps forward.

As is the case with their division counterparts, the Rockies, it’s nevertheless difficult to see the Diamondbacks hanging around in a top-heavy NL West. That leaves the Snakes in something of a middle ground, reluctant to tear down but without a real path to immediate contention. Arizona brass is mostly treating 2022 as an evaluation season after adding on the margins of the roster but declining to make any especially noteworthy splash.

That includes in the manager’s chair. Shortly before the end of the season, the D-Backs signed Torey Lovullo to a one-year extension with a 2023 option. It wasn’t a massive show of faith in the sixth-year skipper, but it nevertheless marked some continuity when other organizations may have been tempted to shake things up after the disastrous 2021 results.

The club did make some notable changes on Lovullo’s staff, however. They hired longtime Astros’ pitching coach Brent Strom in the same role. Strom is generally regarded as one of the sport’s best pitching minds and should be a welcome addition for a staff that had MLB’s second-worst ERA (5.15) last season. Arizona also brought in former big league skipper Jeff Banister as bench coach and Joe Mather as hitting coach.

The organization surely hopes that new voices can coax better production out of holdover players, but the D-Backs also had to make some changes to the roster. Early in the offseason, it became apparent they were looking for relief help — a logical target area since they had the league’s third-worst bullpen ERA (5.08). Arizona’s two biggest free agent investments of the winter would be additions to the late-inning mix.

The Snakes signed reigning saves leader Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal. There’s risk inherent in a multi-year investment for a 37-year-old reliever, but Melancon has been one of the league’s most reliable pitchers for some time. He has seven sub-3.00 ERA seasons on his resume, including a 2.23 mark in 64 2/3 frames with the Padres last year. Melancon isn’t the overpowering strikeout specialist teams typically love late in games, but he’s elite at generating ground-balls and brings far more stability than any of the Snakes’ in-house relievers.

That’s also true — albeit to a lesser extent — of Ian Kennedy. A mid-rotation starter with the D-Backs earlier in his career, Kennedy was moved to the bullpen full-time while with the Royals in 2019. Over the next three seasons, he posted a 3.91 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk numbers over 133 2/3 innings. Kennedy isn’t an elite arm, but he’s solid, and for a fairly modest $4.75MM price tag, the Diamondbacks happily installed him as a high-leverage option.

Melancon and Kennedy were the two most notable additions to the bullpen, although the D-Backs also brought in a pair of left-handed options. Arizona claimed Kyle Nelson off waivers from the Guardians and signed veteran southpaw Oliver Pérez to a minor league deal. Pérez cracked the Opening Day roster for his 20th and final season in the majors. The bullpen should be better than it was last season, although Arizona will still need improvements from internal options like J.B. Wendelken or former top prospect Corbin Martin to have an average group.

Luke Weaver isn’t an addition to the team, but he’s a new entrant into the bullpen mix. A former top prospect, Weaver has shown flashes of mid-rotation potential but has been inconsistent as a starting pitcher. He’s coming off two straight below-average seasons and found himself squeezed out of the starting staff come Spring Training. Perhaps working in shorter stints can help Weaver — who has struggled to turn lineups over multiple times in a game — find more success. The righty is currently on the injured list after experiencing elbow inflammation but should get an opportunity to pitch his way into an important relief role if healthy.

Weaver’s move to the bullpen set the stage for what could be a revolving door at the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are locked in as the top two starters. Madison Bumgarner’s five-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason went off the rails almost immediately, but the team isn’t in position to seriously consider bumping him out of the rotation at the moment. The final two spots, though, are real question marks.

Arizona aimed to address that a bit with their last MLB free agent signee, Zach Davies. The righty is coming off a 5.78 ERA with some of the league’s worst strikeout and walk numbers for the Cubs. Virtually nothing in his 2021 performance was encouraging aside from the fact that he stayed healthy and took the ball 32 times. Davies at least has some success in his recent history, which can’t be said for many of the other rotation possibilities.

The D-Backs initially broke camp with Caleb Smith as their #5 starter, but he was optioned last weekend. Humberto Castellanos, Tyler Gilbert and Taylor Widener are also on the 40-man roster. Arizona signed veteran Dan Straily to a minor league deal on the heels of a strong two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Straily surprisingly didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but he’s another candidate for starts at some point.

All three of Arizona’s big league free agent deals were to add to the pitching staff. The D-Backs elected to run things back with last season’s position player crop, more or less. Carson Kelly returns as the starter behind the plate. He looked like he was on an All-Star trajectory in the first half of last year, but his production dipped considerably after he fractured his right wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June. He’s backed up by rookie José Herrera, who won the season-opening #2 job over minor league signees Grayson Greiner, Juan Graterol and Juan Centeno.

The D-Backs elected to tender Christian Walker an arbitration contract on the heels of a subpar showing. His $2.6MM price tag is far from exorbitant, but he’ll need to do more offensively to hold onto his first base job. Star Ketel Marte moved back to the middle infield — where he began his career — after rating poorly in center field last season. He’s the regular second baseman, where he figures to pair with defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed up the middle. Ahmed’s name was floated throughout the offseason as a (largely speculative) trade candidate, but he didn’t perform well enough to have much appeal — particularly as he’s due $18.25MM over the next two seasons. Ahmed opened the season on the injured list as he deals with shoulder pain, leaving prospect Geraldo Perdomo to handle shortstop early on.

Injuries are also a factor at third base, where the D-Backs will be without presumptive starter Josh Rojas for some time due to an oblique strain. Acquired as part of the Zack Greinke return from Houston in 2019, the lefty-hitting Rojas offered roughly league average offense in 550 plate appearances last year. He’s a bat-first player who can cover multiple positions but may not excel defensively anywhere. Those limitations aside, Rojas should at least be a solid option off the bench long-term and figures to get an opportunity to carve out an everyday role at the hot corner.

D-Backs’ brass seems to prefer Rojas as a utility option, as they spoke a few times over the offseason about a desire to acquire third base help. Arizona added a couple utility infielders in Spring Training deals but didn’t pick up an obvious regular. The D-Backs brought back Sergio Alcántara for cash considerations after he’d been designated for assignment by the Cubs. On Opening Day, they picked up Yonny Hernández in a deal with the Rangers. Neither player performed well in fairly limited time last season, but they were both low-cost fliers to backfill around the infield after the injuries to Ahmed and Rojas. Arizona also selected Matt Davidson, whom they’d signed to a minor league deal, to the big league club this week.

As they played out the string in a lost 2021 season, the D-Backs began to work some of their younger outfielders into the mix more regularly. That’ll continue, particularly after they predictably bought out Kole Calhoun’s option. Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith and Jake McCarthy are all former well-regarded draftees who have reached the MLB level. Varsho, who’s athletic enough to play center field but also has experience at catcher, is the most promising of the group on both sides of the ball. Smith and McCarthy haven’t shown as much in their careers, but they’ll get opportunities in the corners.

D-Backs stalwart David Peralta is back as the everyday left fielder. He’s making $7.5MM this season and will hit free agency at the end of the year. Each of Varsho, Smith, McCarthy and Peralta hit left-handed, so the D-Backs brought in a righty bat in a minor trade with the Rays. Jordan Luplow has made a career of mashing against southpaws and will soon rotate into the corners as a platoon option. He’s currently on the injured list but expected to make his team debut soon.

Luplow could also see some time at designated hitter, spelling another lefty bat and former first-rounder, Seth Beer. The implementation of the universal DH gives Arizona a chance to evaluate Beer, whom they didn’t like defensively at first base. The 25-year-old has been an excellent hitter both in college and in the minors, and he’ll get a chance to carry that success over against big league pitching now that he doesn’t have to worry about playing the field.

That’s a lot of options but very little certainty. Most probably won’t pan out as anything more than role players, but the front office is surely hoping they’ll find a couple members of the long-term core. Other than Peralta, every position player on the roster is controllable beyond this season. That’s only meaningful if some take steps forward and become building blocks for the future. How many of them do is the biggest question for the D-Backs in 2022.

In resisting a rebuild, general manager Mike Hazen has spoken of a desire to “anchor” the next contention window around a few core pieces. They took a major step in that direction this spring, hammering out a long-term deal with Marte. The 28-year-old was already controllable through 2024 under the terms of the last extension he’d signed, but they finalized a new agreement that could keep him in the desert through 2028. The extension saw the Snakes essentially lock in $11MM and $13MM club options for 2023 and ’24, then tack on three additional seasons at a total of $49MM. That’s an eminently reasonable price for a player of Marte’s caliber, and the deal gives the D-Backs an affordable 2028 option as well.

That extension cemented Marte as the face of the franchise. When healthy, he’s blossomed into an excellent offensive player with a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and power. His center field experiment didn’t go well, but they’ll hope for a better showing with the glove now that he’s back in the middle infield.

The D-Backs’ other spring extension — a two-year, $18MM pact with Merrill Kelly — doesn’t quite fit Hazen’s “anchoring” mold, but it’s an affordable enough move to keep a capable rotation piece around. Kelly is 33-years-old and not overpowering, so he’s not about to develop into a future ace. Yet he throws strikes, gets a fair amount of ground-balls, and has gotten roughly league average results since coming over from the KBO in 2019. It’s not the most exciting profile, but there’s something to be said for Kelly’s stability — particularly for an Arizona team that otherwise doesn’t have much of that in the starting staff.

Hazen and company headed into the 2022 season without making especially meaningful changes to the organization in either direction. They’re not rebuilding, but their efforts to solidify the bullpen and add modest depth on the position player side aren’t going to completely turn things around relative to last year. The Diamondbacks are mostly biding their time, waiting to see whether there’s enough of a young core here for a more aggressive push in 2023. Baseball America credited the team with the league’s 10th-best farm system this winter, so it’s not out of the question they graduate enough young talent to move quickly towards competitiveness.

That’s contingent on many of the players already at the big league level playing to their potential, though. The early results have been putrid, and they’ll need players like Carson Kelly, Varsho and Smith to perform better than they have of late. There’s still plenty of time, and the team has been willing to give those players some room for failure. Still, at some point, the D-Backs are going to have start showing better results, or they may force the front office’s hand on a rebuild the organization has been trying to avoid.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros didn’t make many notable outside additions over the winter. They’re relying on an excellent internal core to make another run at a World Series, counting on their top prospect to step into the major leagues to replace one of the game’s best players.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $35.1MM
Total spending: $44.1MM

Option Decisions

Trades and claims

Extensions

  • Signed RHP Ryan Pressly to a two-year, $30MM extension (deal also contains vesting option for 2025 based on number of appearances)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Astros entered the offseason coming off a disappointing finish in the World Series, which they dropped in six games to the Braves. Considering Houston made it back to the Fall Classic — their fifth consecutive season advancing at least as far as the AL Championship Series — it stood to reason they’d try to preserve as much continuity as possible.

Generally speaking, that proved to be the case. The Astros didn’t do much to bring in talent from the outside the organization, although they wound up not bringing everyone who was instrumental to their recent success back. That was most evident in the players they lost to free agency, but the team’s first notable departure was a member of the coaching staff. Longtime pitching coach Brent Strom — generally regarded as one of the game’s best given Houston’s seeming never-ending stable of quality arms — stepped down shortly after the World Series. He’d eventually take the same position with the Diamondbacks.

Houston promoted two of Strom’s lieutenants, Josh Miller and Bill Murphy, to take on co-pitching coach duties. The rest of the staff stayed mostly the same, and for the third consecutive season, they’ll be led by veteran skipper Dusty Baker. Houston signed Baker to a one-year contract extension in November. It was a bit of a surprise to see such a short-term commitment given how adeptly Baker has taken the reigns since replacing A.J. Hinch in the midst of the sign-stealing fallout. In either event, the three-time Manager of the Year winner is back and will soon become the 12th person in MLB history to reach 2,000 career victories.

Extending Baker seemed like a fairly easy call for the front office, but they probably devoted even less time to their next couple decisions. Exercising an $8MM option on Yuli Gurriel was a no-brainer after he won the batting title in 2021. So too was handing Carlos Correa a qualifying offer; there might’ve been a little more debate about whether to QO Justin Verlander, considering he’d missed essentially the entire last two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Ultimately, however, Verlander looked as if he’d receive and reject a QO, particularly after Houston owner Jim Crane remarked in September that Verlander was seeking a multi-year deal. The $18.4MM QO price would still have been a bargain if the eight-time All-Star picked up where he left off upon returning, as he posted a 2.58 ERA in a league-best 223 innings in 2019. The Astros had as good a view as anyone on Verlander’s form throughout his recovery, and they seemed optimistic about his chances of returning to the top of a rotation.

Verlander rejected the QO as expected, but that wasn’t a precursor to a free agent departure. Less than an hour after announcing that decision, he and team agreed to a $25MM deal to keep him in Houston in 2022. That wasn’t technically the multi-year deal Crane indicated Verlander had been seeking, but he can vest a $25MM player option for the following season if he reaches 130 innings this year. If he stays healthy, Verlander should eclipse that mark with ease and lock in some extra financial security while still having the option to explore free agency next winter. The vesting option provides the team cover in the event he has an injury setback. (Through two starts, Verlander has looked like his old self, averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 13 innings).

With Verlander back, the Astros solidified a starting staff that should again be among the league’s best. Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy each eclipsed 100 innings with an ERA of 3.62 or lower last season. Veteran Jake Odorizzi gives them an experienced back-of-the-rotation option. Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the first couple months of the year after his recovery from last postseason’s flexor tendon strain has dragged longer than anticipated. If he returns for the stretch run and matches last year’s form, though, Houston should have a very strong top six arms.

The Astros did lose Zack Greinke to free agency, subtracting some stability and innings from the group. Grienke is no longer an ace, but he soaked up 171 roughly average frames last season over 30 appearances. That’s valuable, but between Verlander’s return and the presence of Odorizzi and swingman Cristian Javier, the Astros felt equipped to weather it.

For now, Javier is in the bullpen, where he spent the bulk of last season. The right-hander started his first nine outings in 2021 but eventually got squeezed out of the rotation. Javier’s control wavered, but he struck out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters en route to a 3.55 ERA in 101 1/3 innings. Whether he eventually moves back to the rotation or settles in as a bulk relief option, he adds another exciting multi-inning arm to the mix.

Keeping Javier in relief strengthens the relative weak point on the roster. The Astros’ bullpen was a middle-of-the-pack group last year. It certainly wasn’t catastrophic, but it’s the least exceptional part of the club. The club picked up Kendall Graveman in a deadline deal with the division-rival Mariners, but he signed a three-year deal with the White Sox this winter. Not coincidentally, the bullpen is the one area where the team made a notable investment to bring in a player from outside.

Houston signed former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year, $17MM guarantee. The right-hander had a bit of an inconsistent tenure in Philadelphia, but he was effective on the whole and is coming off a nice season. He fanned 31.6% of opposing hitters and induced ground-balls at a solid 47.1% clip last year. He also doesn’t have particularly marked platoon splits throughout his career. Neris has been better against same-handed opponents (.208/.272/.373), but he’s also managed solid production against southpaws (.231/.324/.387).

That’s of particular importance for a Houston team that lost lefty Brooks Raley to free agency. Blake Taylor and rookie Parker Mushinski are the only left-handers in the late innings mix for Baker. Houston signed veterans Zac Rosscup and Adam Morgan to minor league deals as insurance, but it’s not a great group of southpaws overall. With righties like Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton having had success against lefties in the past, general manager James Click and his staff elected not to invest in another lefty arm.

Those players will all bridge the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly, who has been one of the sport’s top late-inning weapons over the past four years. The Astros rewarded him for that run of success with a Spring Training extension that guarantees $30MM through 2024 and stops him from hitting the open market at the end of this season, when his contract had originally been set to expire. The deal, which also contains a 2025 vesting option, keeps a key bullpen piece around for the next few years, during which the team should remain a contender.

That’s a testament to the strength of both Houston’s young starting pitching and their across-the-board excellence in the lineup. Click and his staff didn’t have to make many changes to the position player group. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back as the catching tandem, freeing Houston up to deal third catcher Garrett Stubbs to the Phillies in a minor trade. That’s not a great offensive duo, but both veteran backstops are highly-regarded defenders.

The Astros can afford to live with lackluster hitting behind the dish because of the strength of the lineup elsewhere. Gurriel is back at first base, José Altuve is at the keystone, and Alex Bregman is at third base. Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker make for one of the top corner outfield pairings in the game. Yordan Álvarez can rotate into the corner outfield while continuing to mash as the designated hitter. The Astros don’t have household names in center field, but even there, they’re well-positioned.

Chas McCormick, José Siri and Jake Meyers all had strong rookie showings last year, performing well enough that Houston felt comfortable dealing Myles Straw to Cleveland at the deadline to bring in Maton. None of McCormick, Siri or Meyers (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list after undergoing shoulder surgery) would rule the Astros out from landing a star. Houston has inquired about Bryan Reynolds and reportedly touched base with Starling Marte’s camp in free agency. Center field isn’t a dire need, though, and the Astros felt comfortable rolling into the season with their internal options after not landing a marquee name.

That, of course, brings us to the one spot on the diamond where the Astros were faced with their biggest decision: whether to bring back Correa on a free agent megadeal. At the outset of the offseason, Houston presented the star shortstop with a five-year, $160MM offer. That never seemed likely to get Correa’s attention, and it looked as if he’d wind up departing. Yet Correa’s stay on the open market lingered unexpectedly, with a mid-lockout agency switch to the Boras Corporation perhaps contributing to the signing delay for free agency’s top player.

Once the lockout was lifted and Spring Training got underway, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Astros were set to make Correa a new offer. That generated some speculation the two-time All-Star could return to Houston after all, but that proved not to be. Correa eventually signed an opt-out laden three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins. That wasn’t the long-term commitment most had expected for the 27-year-old, but he received the second-largest average annual salary for a position player in MLB history and an opportunity to test the market again next winter.

Precisely what the Astros put on the table at the end is unclear, although Scott Boras told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Houston wouldn’t go beyond five years. By the time Correa agreed to terms with Minnesota, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Báez had all long since signed elsewhere. That left Trevor Story as the lone top free agent shortstop remaining.

The Astros were tied to Story throughout the winter, and they reengaged with his camp late in the process. Sherman tweeted that Houston and the Giants were among the three finalists for the former Rockies star, but he ultimately landed in Boston on a six-year deal. Once Story inked his $140MM pact with the Red Sox, it became clear top prospect Jeremy Peña was going to take the reins in Houston.

Peña has started 11 of the team’s first 12 games at the position. A gifted defender, he entered the season with just 30 games above A-ball after missing most of last year on the injured list. Peña has been fantastic in his first couple weeks in the majors, and the Astros would obviously love if he takes the job and runs with it. Houston has bat-first veteran Aledmys Díaz on hand, and they also inked former Tigers utilityman Niko Goodrum to a one-year deal to add depth at multiple spots around the diamond. Detroit non-tendered Goodrum after a second consecutive poor offensive season, but he was a capable player on both sides of the ball in 2018-19 and makes for a fine add to the bench.

Losing Correa is unquestionably a blow, and the Astros could face stiffer competition from the Mariners and Angels this year than they have in recent seasons. Yet the departure of their star shortstop alone won’t be enough to knock Houston from the ranks of the AL favorites, particularly if Peña can step right in as an above-average player in his own right. The Astros didn’t make many big additions last offseason, but they didn’t need to. The bulk of the group that has led five straight playoff runs is still around, and the window remains wide open for Houston to make another run at a World Series.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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Chaim Bloom stuck to his playbook for most of the offseason, before finally making a surprising splash on one of the last remaining marquee free agents.

Major League Signings

  • Trevor Story, SS/2B: six years, $140MM (can opt out after four years, but club can negate opt-out by adding seventh year to make it a $160MM total.)
  • James Paxton, SP: one year, $6MM (plus two-year, $26MM club option and $4MM player option, meaning it’s a $10MM guarantee over two years)
  • Jake Diekman, RP: two years, $8MM (includes $4MM club option with $1MM buyout)
  • Michael Wacha, SP/RP: one year, $7MM
  • Rich Hill, SP: one year, $5MM, plus incentives
  • Matt Strahm, RP: one year, $3MM

2022 spending: $45.5MM
Total spending: $173MM

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Garrett Whitlock, RP: four years, $18.75MM, plus 2027 club option of $8.25MM with $1MM buyout and 2028 club option of $10.5MM with $500K buyout

Notable Losses

Since taking over the reins in Boston after the 2019 season, the Chaim Bloom regime has been focused on the future. Mookie Betts and David Price were traded to clear payroll and restock the farm. The remainder of that offseason saw the club sign eight players to major league deals, all for a single year. After finishing last in AL East in the shortened 2020 campaign, it was much the same in the next offseason: seven MLB deals, five of them for a single year, with only Enrique Hernandez and Hirokazu Sawamura getting a second. Few prognosticators expected a huge breakout from the Sox in 2021, but it came nonetheless. The club won 92 games, earning a Wild Card spot and eventually playing its way into the ALCS. Would that lead to a more aggressive offseason or more of the cautious tactics of the Bloom era?

Before the offseason began, the Boston sports world was given some very sad news as longtime broadcaster and former player Jerry Remy passed away in late October. A Massachusetts native, Remy started his career with the Angels but was traded to the Red Sox in 1977. He stuck with his hometown team for the remainder of his career, becoming a fan favorite before jumping into the broadcast booth in 1988. He became a fixture of Boston games on NESN and also wrote several books about baseball. Red Sox baseball surely won’t be the same without him.

As the calendar turned to November, the World Series ended and it was time for business. Kyle Schwarber declined his half of a mutual option for 2022, which was a part of his one-year deal he signed with the Nationals. The club declined options on Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, sending them to the open market. Perhaps most important of all, J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the final year of his contract, staying with the Sox for one more year, with a salary of $19.35MM. Eduardo Rodriguez received a qualifying offer, which he rejected. Finally, the club exercised its club option on Christian Vazquez, keeping him around for $7MM.

Once the free agency floodgates opened, Boston was reportedly open to a reunion with Schwarber. They were one of the teams who attended the Justin Verlander showcase and among the known suitors for Seiya Suzuki. They also made a multi-year offer to retain Rodriguez and reportedly had interest in fellow southpaws Steven Matz, Robbie Ray and Andrew Heaney. Javier Baez was also a rumored target, as were Jeurys Familia and Marcus Stroman.

Despite the reported interest in those high profile options, most of them signed elsewhere before the lockout. The Red Sox went into the transactions freeze having accomplished more mild maneuvers. They exercised the 2023-23 club option on manager Alex Cora. Michael Wacha and Rich Hill were signed to one-year deals, worth $7MM and $5MM, respectively. James Paxton was signed to a convoluted deal that reflects his uncertain status after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in April of 2021. He’ll make $6MM in 2022, a season in which he likely won’t join the team until midseason. Then the club will get to decide on a two-year option for the 2023-24 seasons that will pay him $13MM each year. If the team declines, Paxton will have a $4MM player option for 2023.

Just before the lockout kicked in, the club made one more significant move, trading Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of prospects. Bradley was coming off a dismal 2021 season where he slashed .163/.236/.261, 35 wRC+, making it clear this deal was about subtracting from the big league team to build the farm.

It seemed like yet another classic Bloom offseason: modest short-term deals for the big league team while keeping the focus on the future. During the lockout, there were rumors connecting them to Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, though it seemed hard to believe Boston would make such an aggressive move, given their recent history. The $14MM guarantee for Enrique Hernandez was the largest they had given to a free agent since Nathan Eovaldi’s $68MM in late 2018.

After the lockout ended, the modest additions kept coming, with Matt Strahm being the club’s first signing after the transactions freeze lifted. That was followed by Jake Diekman being added to the bullpen. Then it was announced that Chris Sale had a stress fracture in his right rib cage and wouldn’t be available for weeks. Minor league deals were given to Travis Shaw and Hansel Robles, who would both eventually return to Boston’s 40-man roster.

On March 23rd, just two weeks before Opening Day, the big splash finally came. Although the club was also hovering around the Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman markets, Bloom and his staff broke the mold for Trevor Story. The $140MM guarantee was ten times higher than the largest contract previously given out by this front office regime. The deal also has a complicated structure that could take it to $160MM. Story can opt out after the fourth year of the deal, but the Sox can negate the opt-out by preemptively exercising a $25MM club option for the 2028 season. That option comes with a $5MM buyout that’s already included in the $140MM guarantee, so it’s a net add of $20MM to the life of the contract.

For that significant investment, the Red Sox are getting a player who can provide value on both sides of the ball. Both Story’s offense and defense have been above average for his career. However, there are question marks in both departments. Story slumped at the plate in 2021, finishing exactly league average with a wRC+ of 100. On the defensive side of things, a nagging elbow injury seemed to be impacting his arm strength, as he made 11 throwing errors in 2021, easily the most of his career. As he lingered on the free agent market through the winter, there were some who suggested he would be best suited for a move to second base, as his arm wouldn’t need to be as strong there as at short.

Despite those concerns, he makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. Plugging Story in at second allows Hernandez to move to the outfield on a full-time basis instead of bouncing back and forth between the two roles. Secondly, the club has a potential hole at shortstop looming over the horizon, as Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the final three years of his contract after the 2022 campaign. Barring some catastrophic injury, that seems quite likely to happen. The club can use this season to evaluate Story and his arm strength before deciding how to proceed with their middle infield. If Story is deemed capable of returning to the left side of the diamond, then they can let Bogaerts walk. If not, they can try to re-sign him or turn their attentions to one of the other available shortstops in this winter’s class. (Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson will be there, and they’ll more than likely be joined by Correa, who has an opt-out in his deal with the Twins.)

There is a financial element at play in all of this also, as the Story deal has pushed the Red Sox beyond the luxury tax line for the first time since Betts and Price were sent to L.A. Their luxury tax number is currently sitting just under $239MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new CBA, the lowest tier of the luxury tax system begins at $230MM.

That won’t lead to a huge financial penalty, since the Red Sox would be a “first time” payor and only responsible for a 20% tax on spending between $230MM and $250MM. In this case, the tax would be around $1.7MM. However, even a small overage can have compounding effects, as the penalties increase for team’s that pay the tax in consecutive years. For instance, the Padres went just barely over the line in 2021 and paid a $1.29MM tax bill. However, they then seemed determined to not cross the line again in 2022, spending much of their offseason trying to move Eric Hosmer’s contract and not upgrading in the outfield corners despite a bevy of available free agents.

For the Red Sox, it’s possible that they’re not so worried about crossing the tax line for a second consecutive year due to the fact that they have a lot of money coming off the books after this season. Martinez ($19.375MM), Nathan Eovaldi ($17MM), Vazquez ($7MM), Hernandez ($8MM), Wacha ($7MM), Hill ($5MM), Strahm ($3MM), Robles ($2.25MM), Kevin Plawecki ($2.25MM) and Shaw ($1.5MM) are all in the final years of their respective deals, accounting for $72.375MM coming straight off the books. If Bogaerts opts out, that’s another $20MM. Bradley has a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that has an $8MM buyout. Sawamura also has a complicated option for 2023 that could see him hit free agency. (The Red Sox hold a club option valued at $3-4MM depending on performance escalators and milestones. Should they decline their half, Sawamura would have a player option valued between $600K and $2.2MM.) There’s also the aforementioned Paxton situation.

Complications aside, the club will have somewhere between $72.375MM and around $100MM coming off the ledger in a few months. Of course, that also means that they will have plenty of holes to fill, but the club is surely hoping to fill as many as possible in-house so that they don’t need to go back out and spend over the CBT line again next year. Bogaerts could be replaced by Story. Martinez’s bat could be replaced by Triston Casas emerging and joining Bobby Dalbec in the first base/designated hitter mix. Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill departing will strip the rotation down to Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, but Paxton could potentially take one spot, with youngsters like Kutter Crawford or Connor Seabold maybe taking another. Hernandez and Bradley being subtracted from the outfield creates a couple of holes, but maybe Jarren Duran can take a step forward this year.

As Spring Training wound down, the club agreed to an extension with Garrett Whitlock — another future rotation candidate. However, the Sox failed to do so with Bogaerts, Eovaldi or Rafael Devers. It’s possible for a huge amount of roster turnover a year from now, and that’s only the beginning of the uncertainty facing the team. The club is in a stacked AL East where any of the four non-Baltimore teams could be seen as the frontrunner or the fourth-best.

The Red Sox are facing a few months with dozens of potential outcomes, both on the field and off. They could fall out of contention and trade away some of their expiring contracts, thus ducking back below the CBT line. But it’s also possible they’ve cobbled together a squad that can hang with the other contenders in the division, just like they did last year. Either way, a handful of guys will likely be wearing a different uniform next year. Martinez, Eovaldi and Bogaerts would all be qualifying offer candidates, but the QO system could be scrapped if MLB and the MLBPA can agree to an international draft framework before this summer. There’s no shortage of uncertainty around this Red Sox roster, in what figures to be yet another wild year in the AL East.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers went into the offseason with a strong team, but on the pitching heavy side. They spent their offseason trying to add more pop to the lineup without spending much money.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $12.9MM
Total spending: $12.9MM

Options Exercised

  • OF Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised $9.5MM player option; later traded to Red Sox
  • OF Avisail Garcia declined his end of $12MM mutual option in favor of $2MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Brewers had an excellent regular season in 2021, going 95-67, winning the NL Central and making the postseason for a fourth straight year. However, they did it in a very slanted way, dominating on the hill but not hitting much. The pitching staff had an ERA of 3.50, third best in the majors, trailing only the Dodgers and Giants. The rotation had a dominant front three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, along with solid contributions at the back end from Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson. The bullpen featured excellent hurlers like Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger.

However, the offense wasn’t nearly as impressive. The team’s overall batting line was .233/.317/.396, producing a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below average, 23rd out of the 30 teams. This uneven attack was on display in the playoffs, when the Brewers faced off against the Braves. Milwaukee eked out the first game with a 2-1 victory, thanks to six shutout innings from Corbin Burnes. But they lost the next three games by scores of 3-0, 3-0 and 5-4. It’s tough for a dominant pitching staff to carry a team with six runs of support over four games. With Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, and Manny Pina heading into free agency at season’s end, there would be work to do in the offseason just to break even.

Of course, there wasn’t going to be a mountain of money to work with, as the Brewers have never been a high payroll team. Up until a few years ago, their highest Opening Day payroll was $104MM. They shot up to $123MM in 2019 but then back down to $99MM for 2021. (Figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) The club’s president of baseball operations David Stearns has still managed to field competitive teams despite these limitations, which is why he’s attracted the attention of rival teams.

Early in the offseason, Stearns seemed to be a popular target of the Mets, as they looked to hire a new general manager or president. It was thought that there would be a chance the Brewers would let Stearns, a New York native, pursue the opportunity due to the fact that 2022 is the last year of his current contract. However, reports emerged in October that Stearns may have a vesting option for 2023. Whether that was a factor or not, the Brewers denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns for the job that eventually went to Billy Eppler. Further clarity on the contract situation came in February, when it was reported that Stearns is actually under control through 2023 but can opt out after this year if the Brewers win the National League pennant.

As the offseason began and business kicked off, the Brewers signed Trevor Gott to a split deal to bolster their relief corps. Jackie Bradley Jr. exercised his player option. Avisail Garcia declined his $12MM mutual option, taking the $2MM buyout and hitting free agency. The Brewers had a chance to issue a qualifying offer to Garcia but ultimately decided against it. He would later sign with the Marlins on a four-year, $53MM contract, with the Brewers getting nothing in return.

In mid-November, the Brewers swung a trade, acquiring Mike Brosseau from the Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Evan Reifert. The utilityman had shown some potential in his first couple of seasons, hitting .284/.343/.500 over 240 plate appearances in 2019-20 while playing all over the diamond. He slid from that level in 2021, ending up with a line of .187/.266/.347, 73 wRC+. Still, the prospect cost was minimal and Brosseau hasn’t yet reached arbitration. If he can bounce back to anywhere near his earlier production, he could be a bargain. With a projected infield of Willy Adames, Luis Urias (who wound opening the season in the injured list), Kolten Wong and Rowdy Tellez, along with a projected outfield of Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Tyrone Taylor, Brosseau would slot into the bench/utility mix with Jace Peterson.

After Manny Pina signed with the Braves, the Brew Crew needed to find a new catcher to pair with Omar Narvaez. They settled on Pedro Severino but he was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Clomiphene. With just days until Opening Day, the club quickly pivoted and acquired both Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson to improve the depth behind the plate. Caratini showed some potential with the bat when he popped 11 homers in 2019 but fell off in the following two campaigns. With a $2MM arbitration salary and an additional year of team control, he’s another low-cost flier for the club.

Just before the lockout was set to kick in, the Brewers traded Bradley and a couple of prospects to the Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe. This served Milwaukee’s needs in a couple of ways. First, Bradley is making $9.5MM in 2022 and had a dismal season at the plate the year before. In 2021, he hit .163/.236/.261, with his 35 wRC+ being easily the worst in baseball among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. (Kevin Newman’s 54 was next on the list). Renfroe was arbitration-eligible and eventually settled with the Brewers at $7.65MM, meaning he’ll be cheaper than Bradley and more productive with the bat. He hit .259/.315/.501 for the Red Sox last year, putting up a wRC+ of 114.

After the lockout, the club’s first move was to re-sign Brad Boxberger, returning him to a high-leverage role in the bullpen with Hader and Williams. The righty threw 64 2/3 innings in 2021, with a 3.34 ERA and 31.2% strikeout rate. Milwaukee also added veteran righty Jose Urena on a minor league deal and selected him to the big league club the next day. Urena, who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, is on hand as a multi-inning relief option.

They then made their biggest signing of the offseason, adding 35-year-old Andrew McCutchen on a one-year, $8.5MM deal. McCutchen’s days of elite outfield defense are behind him, but he can still hit. Over the past two seasons, his slash line is .232/.331/.441, 106 wRC+. But he was especially effective against lefties, with a line of .290/.402/.603 in 2020-21, producing a wRC+ of 164.

While McCutchen is still a fine player, there were plenty of younger and more productive outfield options available in free agency this winter. Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, Jorge Soler, Mark Canha, Michael Conforto (still unsigned), Eddie Rosario and others were all available. In the end, the Brewers avoided any big or lengthy commitments, settling on an Opening Day payroll of $132MM, a new franchise record but still in the bottom half of the league.

Milwaukee didn’t need to do much on the pitching side of things. Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser all remained under club control. Top prospect Aaron Ashby is ready to replace Anderson — who hit free agency — as the top depth option for the starting staff. Milwaukee brought Boxberger back and never seemed to seriously consider dealing Hader even as his arbitration price continued to rise. The Brew Crew’s elite arms are back.

On the other side of the ball, Garcia, Escobar, Pina, Daniel Vogelbach (whom the club non-tendered) and Jackie Bradley Jr. have been replaced by Renfroe, McCutchen, Brosseau and Caratini. Whether those moves have improved the offense enough can be debated. What would certainly help is if some of the holdovers could have better results. Christian Yelich was mediocre in the past two seasons, when compared to his 2018-19 peak. Lorenzo Cain had three mostly lost years from 2019-21. Keston Hiura has failed to deliver since his exciting 2019 debut. The Brewers enter 2022 as a pitching-oriented team, but their chances of making a deep playoff run would be greatly enhanced if they can coax returns to form from some of those players.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox filled their right field vacancy by making a long-awaited Craig Kimbrel trade, otherwise focusing on signing Kimbrel’s replacements rather than compensating for the departure of Carlos Rodon.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After a disappointing ALDS loss to the Astros, the White Sox kicked off their offseason by exercising their hefty $16MM option on reliever Craig Kimbrel.  The righty had struggled after a crosstown trade in which the Sox paid the high price of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  The White Sox seemed intent on trading Kimbrel all along, and at the time their choice on the option seemed related to having given up Madrigal for him.  As I wrote in December, “[White Sox GM Rick] Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.”

At the time it needed to be made, the Kimbrel decision involved some financial risk for a club that has never been willing to run a payroll near the first competitive balance tax threshold.  Days later, in what seemed a related choice payroll-wise, the White Sox declined to issue a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to lefty Carlos Rodon.

Especially with the benefit of hindsight that the White Sox would make no major commitments to their rotation, the Rodon decision must be read as the club thinking that the southpaw accepting the qualifying offer would have been a bad thing.  It’s hard to say whether Rodon would have accepted.  He was one of the game’s best pitchers through mid-July last year, but lost velocity and was handled carefully after that due to shoulder issues.  Rodon went on to sign a two-year, $44MM deal after the lockout with the Giants that allows him to opt out after the first year if he reaches 110 innings.  Rodon’s market would have been different if he had a qualifying offer attached, due to draft pick forfeiture.

In granting righty Lance Lynn a two-year, $38MM extension last July – similar to the contract Rodon would eventually sign – it might be that the White Sox felt they could choose only one of their 2021 aces.  That’s only true in that owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided not to set a payroll that would accommodate both.  So, the White Sox received no compensation for Rodon’s departure, while Lynn had knee surgery earlier this month and isn’t expected to make his season debut before his 35th birthday on May 12th.  The second half of the season will determine whether the White Sox made the right bet: Lynn will be a big factor in Chicago’s rotation, and we’ll learn whether Rodon holds up all year.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox showed “strong interest” in Justin Verlander before he reached an agreement to re-sign with the Astros on November 17th.  That would’ve been a reasonable way to fill Rodon’s shoes, but competition for Verlander was fierce and the Astros were at the top of his list.  Most other top free agent starting pitchers signed prior to the lockout as well, and the White Sox weren’t rumored to be interested in them.

Otherwise, the White Sox made a pair of free agent strikes before the December 2 lockout.  They gave out a pair of decent-sized three-year deals, adding setup man Kendall Graveman and retaining super-utility man Leury Garcia.  The Graveman signing laid groundwork for the eventual Kimbrel trade, ensuring the team would remain strong in the late innings behind top closer Liam Hendriks.  Garcia garnered a larger commitment than expected, but would end up as part of the team’s second base solution.

Rick Hahn’s first post-lockout move was to finish off that second base combo with the signing of Josh Harrison.  Through nine games of the season, manager Tony La Russa has split second base time evenly between Garcia and Harrison.  Harrison is a righty batter with a modest platoon split, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws from 2020-21.  Garcia, a switch-hitter, is also better against lefties.  From 2019-21, Garcia and Harrison sport identical 83 wRC+ marks against right-handed pitching.  So for the 70% of the time a righty pitcher is on the hill, the White Sox figure to have a fairly easy out coming from the second base position in the lineup.

On the same day as the Harrison signing, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly moved to further bolster their bullpen with the signing of Joe Kelly.  Not only was the team surprising given Chicago’s existing bullpen commitments, but Kelly had exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness and still secured a strong commitment.  His White Sox debut has been delayed by at least a couple of weeks due to the injury.  When Kelly is healthy, he, Graveman, and Aaron Bummer can form a very strong bridge to Hendriks.

After the lockout, the White Sox added only back-end starting pitchers to cover for the loss of Rodon and ineffectiveness of Dallas Keuchel, as Lynn had not yet gotten injured.  Vince Velasquez, 29, has longstanding control issues that pitching coach Ethan Katz will attempt to solve.  Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, can be a source of veteran innings.  The White Sox can still plan a hopeful playoff rotation of Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech.  While their depth to cover April injuries to Lynn and Giolito isn’t impressive, if everyone is healthy this will be a fearsome rotation.

The White Sox made efforts to trade for Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas, and Montas remains available.  According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Sox “nearly acquired” Manaea from the A’s before the Padres closed the deal.  Nightengale suggests the A’s have sought Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox for Montas.  If nothing else, these rumors suggest the White Sox know they’re a bit short on pitching depth, especially with Keuchel’s struggles last year and Kopech’s likely innings limit.

On April 1st, the White Sox finally found a match for Kimbrel, sending him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock.  This was a strong move for the White Sox, vindicating their decision to exercise Kimbrel’s option.  In the 34-year-old Pollock, the White Sox effectively fill their right field vacancy with a player who posted a 135 wRC+ over 632 plate appearances from 2020-21.  Pollock’s injury history suggests he’s good for about 115 games per year, so the Sox will be covering his absences with Adam Engel and Vaughn.  The White Sox can’t exactly time when Pollock will get hurt, but the goal will be to have him active for the playoffs.  The Sox also completed a smaller swap with the Collins-McGuire deal, improving their defense at the backup catcher position.

With Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, Jose Abreu at first base, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Yoan Moncada at third, Eloy Jimenez in left, and Luis Robert in center, the White Sox came into the offseason with a strong core of hitters.  Pollock only deepens that mix.  Vaughn, the third overall draft pick in 2019, should bounce around between the outfield corners, first base, and DH depending on the team’s needs.  Anderson is under team control through 2024, Moncada through ’25, Jimenez and Vaughn through ’26, and Robert through ’27.

In the aggregate, the White Sox didn’t necessarily do much to improve upon last year’s 93-win team.  When Pollock is healthy, they’ll clearly be better in right field, and the team won’t have to play Vaughn at an outfield corner.  Second base is mostly a wash.  They covered the losses of Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera with Graveman and Kelly, but also lost Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery.  The rotation is worse off for the loss of Rodon, but Kopech and/or a future trade might fill much of that void.  But maybe this was enough – the White Sox remain the clear favorite in the AL Central, and Tony La Russa’s crew is a credible threat to win the World Series in 2022.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are coming off a World Series title, but they didn’t merely attempt to run it back with last year’s roster. Instead, they allowed one of the faces of the franchise to depart in free agency. In his place, they acquired a hometown star whom they quickly signed to an extension. They also fortified the late innings by adding a few of the best relievers on the open market as they attempt to repeat.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $62.15MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Drew Smyly, Jesse Chavez, Chris Martin, Ehire Adrianza, Johan Camargo, Abraham Almonte, Stephen Vogt, Richard Rodriguez, Edgar Santana, Josh Tomlin, Terrance Gore, Grant Dayton

Coming off the club’s first World Series title since 1995, the Braves figured prominently in the hot stove season, if not quite as predicted. Despite a widespread (if dwindling) industry consensus that franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman – the lone holdover from the period preceding the rebuild that followed its 2014 second-half collapse – would ultimately return to Atlanta, GM Alex Anthopoulos acted quickly when the lockout lifted, sending four prospects to the A’s for Matt Olson and signing him to a club-record eight-year, $168MM contract less than a day later.

Upsetting as the move may have been for Braves fans used to Freeman smiling and hugging his way through the Atlanta summer, Olson is one of a very small handful of first basemen capable of replacing the new Dodger’s ample production. From 2019 to 2021 (a period that includes Freeman’s monster 60-game MVP run in 2020), the Braves’ erstwhile face of the franchise compiled an elite .304/.402/.544 batting line, while his replacement put together a strong (if less eye-popping) .257/.354/.522 triple-slash. A closer look at the pair’s respective batted ball numbers suggest that Olson likely possesses a bit more power (he homered in 6.1% of his plate appearances over the same period, compared to Freeman’s 5%) if a bit less command of the strike zone (striking out 22.4% and walking 11.8% of the time compared to 16.4% and 13.2% for Freeman).

While the loss of a franchise stalwart could have downstream effects beyond questions of on-field performance, a closer look suggests Olson’s deal might actually offer the Braves more per-dollar value than Freeman likely would have had the club accepted either of the proposals reportedly put forward by his agent (per Buster Olney of ESPN): $175MM over six years or $165MM over five – or, for that matter, the six-year, $162MM pact he ultimately signed with the Dodgers. OPS+ (a park-adjusted metric that accounts for the fact that Freeman played his home games at roughly neutral Truist Park while Olson toiled in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum) gives Freeman only a slight edge (143 to 139) over the 2019-2021 period, with Olson’s 153 2021 mark solidly outpacing Freeman’s 134. Adding to the mix Olson’s superior defense – the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards ranked Olson second (to Paul Goldschmidt) and Freeman eighth – and the fact that he’s four years younger than Freeman makes the case for the long-term superiority of the former Athletic perfectly sound.

And though the question of Freeman’s future has clearly loomed largest in Anthopoulos’ mind since November, first base was hardly the only position at which the Braves began the offseason in flux. Indeed, of the four outfielders the Atlanta GM acquired ahead of the 2021 trade deadline (Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario), only Duvall (whom the Braves had non-tendered only a few months prior) came with any control beyond the season’s final two months. Both Soler (who got a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins) and Pederson (one-year, $6MM with the Giants) ultimately signed elsewhere, but the defending champs brought back Rosario –something of a folk hero in Atlanta after his MVP performance in the 2021 NLCS felled the Dodgers almost single-handedly – on a two-year, $18MM commitment, with a buyout-free $9MM option for 2024.

Anthopoulos reportedly maintained interest in Soler (the 2021 World Series MVP) even after re-signing Rosario, but the presence of Marcell Ozuna – who signed a four-year, $65MM deal ahead of the 2021 campaign but spent most of the season on administrative leave following a May  domestic violence arrest – always suggested that Soler, who has a similar profile on both sides of the ball, was unlikely to be more than a rental. Ozuna has spent the early portion of 2022 alongside Duvall and Rosario in the outfield, but he’ll likely return to the DH role that he occupied for most of his dominant 2020 campaign following the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. from knee surgery, which is expected in late April or early May.

Whether Acuña plays right or center field upon his return remains to be seen. Duvall, who played center through the Braves’ 2021 playoff run but often gave way to Guillermo Heredia late in games, opens the season in center, but he’s a career corner outfielder (if a very good one). Heredia remains on the roster as the club’s fourth outfielder, but the departure of Cristian Pache (possibly a perennial Gold Glover if he can hit enough to stick in the bigs) in the Olson deal leaves Acuña – whom the Braves had previously seemed intent on penciling into right field for years to come – as the most plausible center fielder on the roster. This could change, of course, should either of the Braves’ top outfield prospects – Michael Harris and Drew Waters – force his way to the bigs at some point in 2022.

Beyond Olson and Rosario, though, the Braves didn’t do much to bolster an offense that ranked 13th in wRC+ in 2021, reportedly kicking the tires on Carlos Correa but ultimately adding only backstop Manny Piña (on a two-year, $8MM deal) to be Travis d’Arnaud’s deputy and outfielder Alex Dickerson (1-year, $1MM) to DH until Acuña’s return and offer some punch off the bench thereafter. (Dickerson’s deal was initially non-guaranteed, but he has since made the team.) Even so, they’ll hope for improvement in production from Ozuna’s return to action (and return to form after a disappointing start in 2021) and roughly 120 games from a healthy Acuña, as well as a deeper catching unit that won’t require manager Brian Snitker to give significant at-bats to Kevan Smith, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jeff Mathis should d’Arnaud suffer another injury like the torn thumb ligament that sidelined him for the bulk of 2021.

The Braves will also hope for continued production from what’s arguably one of the game’s best infields. Third baseman Austin Riley, who rebounded spectacularly from a mediocre showing in 2020 and an ice-cold start to 2021 to the point that he garnered a number of down-ballot MVP votes, could emerge as a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the Braves’ order. The double-play combination of Dansby Swanson (an impending free agent) and Ozzie Albies (under club control through 2027 for far less than market rate) provides substantial up-the-middle power potential (Swanson slugged at a .449 clip in 2021, Albies .488) if a bit less in the way of on-base rate (Swanson notched a .311 OBP in 2021, Albies .310) than might be desired.

On the pitching staff, Anthopoulos opted to stand pat in the rotation – Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson anchor a group that opens the season with Huascar Ynoa and Kyle Wright in the fourth and fifth slots – but added substantial talent to a bullpen that had already proven itself capable of October dominance. He added Kirby Yates (expected to return around the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2021) on a two-year, $8.25MM pact ahead of the lockout and the versatile Collin McHugh for two years and $10MM shortly after it was lifted, as well as Tyler Thornburg on a non-guaranteed one-year deal and Darren O’Day on a minor-league deal (both have since made the team).

But the most surprising development came shortly after the open of Spring Training when longtime Dodger Kenley Jansen signed a one-year, $16MM deal to displace lefty Will Smith in the closer role. News of Luke Jackson’s season-ending arm injury (he’s since undergone Tommy John surgery) dampens expectations, but only minimally. Alongside the incumbent ‘Night Shift’ (a coinage of lefty Tyler Matzek to describe himself and fellow high-leverage arms Jackson, Smith, and A.J. Minter during the 2021 playoffs), Yates, McHugh, and Jansen give the Braves a strong case for the game’s best ’pen, even without Jackson in the fold.

As deep as the Atlanta bullpen looks on paper, though, the rotation appears comparatively thin. After losing Drew Smyly (who received a one-year, $5.25MM guarantee from the Cubs), Anthopoulos likely looked for a veteran innings-eater but evidently came up empty. Fried, Morton, and Anderson form a solid core, while either or both of Ynoa (who looked like the Braves’ best starter early in 2021 before breaking his hand punching the dugout in Milwaukee) and Wright (who’s lost much of his high-end prospect luster but dominated Triple-A in 2021 and turned in a crucial performance in long relief in Game 4 of the World Series) could settle into a spot in rotation.

Should any of this bunch succumb to injury or ineffectiveness, though, the Braves would be forced to turn to a stable of high-upside but unproven arms that includes Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, Bryce Elder, Touki Toussaint, and Spencer Strider. They’ll also hope for the return of Mike Soroka (who ruptured his Achilles tendon in his second start of the 2020 season before re-tearing the ligament while walking in the Braves’ clubhouse) at some point, but no one will be quite sure what to expect from the onetime ace-in-waiting after such a long layoff and a pair of career-threatening surgeries.

There’s a reason no team has repeated as World Series champs since the Yankees’ three-peat from 1998 to 2000, and the 2021 Braves – who didn’t spend a day over .500 until early August – were almost certainly not the ‘best’ team in baseball before they captured a virulent strain of October magic that will live in Atlanta sports lore for generations to come. And even after finishing second in attendance in 2021 and reporting a substantial revenue increase in October, corporate ownership group Liberty Media appears to have signed off on only a relatively modest payroll increase, pushing the Braves into the upper third of payrolls but well shy of the luxury tax threshold. Still, there’s a solid argument that the 2022 Braves could be a stronger overall club than their 2021 counterparts – particularly if they can stay healthy. The NL East should be much improved, but this year’s Braves team looks just as equipped as last season’s to make a deep run.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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Even before general manager David Forst kicked off the offseason by acknowledging a need to listen to trade offers on his core players, a large-scale teardown wasn’t hard to see coming. The A’s spent the bulk of the winter in trade talks that resulted in four fan favorites being dealt for prospects, and the lack of subsequent moves to reallocate the money they saved further underscores that this is a team looking at 2023 and beyond.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The “Notable Losses” section of the introduction to this review would be a better foundation for a roster than several teams throughout the league currently have — Oakland among them. Heading into the offseason, the A’s had the option of paying their core arbitration class a projected $53.7MM, adding that to the guaranteed salaries of Elvis Andrus ($7.75MM, when including cash received from the Rangers) and Stephen Piscotty ($7.25MM) and then rounding out the roster with pre-arb players and whatever offseason additions they might’ve seen fit to add.

Surrounding the group of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Deolis Guerra, Andrus and Piscotty with pre-arbitration players would’ve left the A’s with a payroll in the $80-85MM range — a stone’s throw from 2019’s franchise-record Opening Day mark of $92.2MM. A’s ownership instead opted to tear it down and let longtime manager Bob Melvin depart for a three-year deal to manage the Padres.

From a big-picture standpoint, it’s easy enough to take each transaction in isolation and more or less see the merit behind it. Nine of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com came over by way of this quartet of trades, including half of their top ten. It’s a similar story at Baseball America and FanGraphs. Oakland’s farm system was generally bereft of high-end talent, save for a few names, and while no one is going to suddenly crown them the best minor league system in MLB, their farm is unequivocally improved. For a team that typically operates with notable payroll constraints, a deep farm is vital.

On the other hand, this is an A’s team that has gone 313-233 over the past four seasons — a .573 winning percentage that has kept them squarely in contention. The loss of Starling Marte and Mark Canha in free agency would’ve stung and left Oakland with some work to do in the outfield, particularly with Ramon Laureano suspended for the first month of the season. However, the infield, catching corps and rotation would’ve all been in fine shape. The bullpen and outfield, the two areas that would’ve needed the most attention, are typically deep in relative bargain options, and that was true this winter as well.

What’s done is done, however, and the A’s opted for the long-term approach. The trade of Olson brought Oakland a near-MLB-ready outfielder in Cristian Pache, who was given the nod as the team’s Opening Day center fielder. Pache and touted catching prospect Shea Langeliers could both be regulars in the Oakland lineup in the near future — depending on what happens with current catcher Sean Murphy — whereas pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes add a pair of interesting arms to the lower levels of the system. Cusick, in particular, is of interest given that he was Atlanta’s top draft pick just last summer.

He’s not the only 2021 first-rounder acquired by the A’s, though, as righty Gunnar Hoglund headlined the return for Chapman. Hoglund might’ve been a top-10 pick and the second college arm off the board had he not undergone Tommy John surgery during his junior season at Ole Miss. The Jays were happy to scoop him up with the No. 19 pick, and the A’s are surely all the more pleased to add him to their system. Like Cusick and Estes, he’s a ways from big league readiness, but that’s not true of the rest of Oakland’s return. Infielder Kevin Smith broke camp as their Opening Day third baseman, while lefty Kirby Snead is in the big league bullpen. Fellow southpaw Zach Logue received the call to the big leagues just today, and while he profiles mostly as a back-of-the-rotation arm, there’d be plenty of value in securing six years of a fourth starter if he indeed realizes that potential.

Likewise, the Bassitt trade has already produced one big leaguer in the form of righty Adam Oller. He’s not as highly regarded as fellow righty JT Ginn, also acquired from the Mets in that Bassitt swap, but he’ll give the club a rotation candidate to evaluate in 2022 and beyond. Ginn, meanwhile, is now ranked as the A’s top pitching prospect (fourth in the organization overall) at Baseball America.

Following the trades of Bassitt, Olson and Chapman — each of which happened in fairly rapid succession — all eyes turned to Manaea and Montas. As a one-year rental, Manaea felt particularly likely to be moved, but the broader focus was on Montas. The hard-throwing righty had just wrapped a career-year in 2021 and, following a declaration from Reds GM Nick Krall that neither Luis Castillo nor Tyler Mahle was expected to be traded, Montas became the undisputed prize of the pitching trade market. He drew interest from virtually every team in need of rotation help, with the Twins, White Sox, Yankees, Royals and several others connected.

Just as it started to appear the A’s would carry both Montas and Manaea to begin the season, however, Oakland struck an agreement to send Manaea to San Diego. In return, they received what many considered a surprisingly light package, landing infield prospect Euribiel Angeles and righty Adrian Martinez. Angeles posted a big .330/.392/.445 line as a 19-year-old against much older competition at two Class-A levels in 2021, and he’s out to a strong start with the A’s High-A club thus far. He’s regarded as the higher-ceiling name of the two, but Martinez posted huge numbers in Double-A last year and has now reached Triple-A. He has a good chance at cracking the Majors this season and, like Logue, could give the A’s a rotation option to consider as soon as this summer.

Suffice it to say, the A’s have considerably bolstered their farm system, though they’ve done so at the cost of any realistic shot of competing in 2022 (and perhaps in 2023 as well). They’ve also set the stage for further trades in the near future. Montas will again be one of the most in-demand names on the market this summer, health permitting, and the A’s will also have center fielder Ramon Laureano, right-hander Lou Trivino and others to peddle as contending clubs look for upgrades.

One name of particular intrigue is young catcher Sean Murphy, who swatted 17 home runs and won a Gold Glove last year — the first of what could be multiple Gold Gloves for the defensive standout. Murphy is controlled three years beyond the current season, but there was at least speculation he could be in play this past winter. With Oakland acquiring Langeliers, who possesses a similar skill set to Murphy but is younger and could be controlled at least six seasons, it’s fair to wonder whether parting with Murphy will now be easier. Add in that Murphy will reach arbitration eligibility next winter and that the Athletics’ top overall prospect is 20-year-old catcher Tyler Soderstrom (the No. 26 pick in 2020) — and it’s all the more feasible that executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst contemplate dealing from their surplus. There’s no urgency to move Murphy, of course, but his name will likely surface at this year’s deadline and, if he’s not moved then, in the offseason.

Beyond that veritable landslide of prospects and young big leaguers, the A’s didn’t do much of anything to strengthen the 2022 roster. The lack of any real spending further solidifies both the fact that this is viewed as a rebuilding year and that payroll concerns were a driving factor behind the trades of Olson, Chapman, Bassitt and Manaea.

That was also true with regards to the departure of Melvin, who had managed the club for ten-plus seasons. The veteran skipper was under contract for 2022, but the A’s allowed him to pursue the San Diego opportunity — reportedly at least partially due to concerns about the $4MM salary he’d been set to receive. Once Melvin departed, Oakland hired third base coach Mark Kotsay as skipper. Kotsay, who signed a three-year deal but whose salary is unreported, gets his first crack at managing after six years on Melvin’s staffs. He’s overseeing a young roster, one that wasn’t much fortified after many of the top players were dealt away.

The only two Major League contracts given out by the A’s were a pair of deals for old friends and fan favorites Jed Lowrie and Stephen Vogt. Lowrie provided league-average offense and poor defense at second base last year, but he’s been a DH and played the corners in his only four games thus far. Vogt hit poorly in 2020-21 with the D-backs and Braves, but he’ll give the team a backup catcher and the fans an old cult favorite to root on in what’ll likely be a lean season.

Perhaps in the end, the Athletics’ latest bevy of trades will ultimately yield a group that turns into their next core. It’s arguable this was a necessary course of action, given the team’s mounting arbitration class, but that’s only the case if fans accept that ownership can’t field a payroll even in the $80-90MM range, which ought to be a tough sell for fans considering all 30 clubs are now receiving upwards of $65MM annually in national television and streaming revenue alone. (That sum does not include local television deals, gate revenue, etc.) As Forst said at the onset of the offseason, “this is our lot in Oakland until it isn’t” — and it seems ownership is pretty content to maintain the status quo.

The A’s can push the company line these trades are necessary for them to compete, but it has long been apparent many of the players who drove their recent run of success would be moved to cut costs. Back in November, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported ownership desired a payroll of $50MM. After making the Manaea deal just four days before Opening Day, the team reached that level. Cot’s Contracts pegs the Athletics’ payroll at $47,953,333. Roster Resource estimates that it’s $49,866,025. According to Cot’s, it’s the second-lowest mark in MLB, ahead of only the Orioles. With that cheaper roster will almost certainly come a worse on-field product than A’s fans have enjoyed of late.

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