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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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2022 was a big success for the Padres, as they made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They then knocked off the 101-win Mets as well as the 111-win Dodgers, slaying “the dragon up the freeway.” The Phillies put a stop to the magic in the NLCS but it was still the best campaign in recent Padres history. They have a strong core together to keep the good times going in 2023, but will also have to address some gaps created when some key pieces hit free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Padres also owe Eric Hosmer, since traded to the Red Sox, the majority of the three years and $39MM left on his contract. The Red Sox will pay him the league minimum with the Padres paying the rest. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but is unlikely to do so.

Total 2023 commitments: $128.11MM
Total future commitments: $727.45MM

Options Decisions

  • Wil Myers, OF: $20MM club option with $1MM buyout.
  • Jurickson Profar, OF: $7.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Contract also has mutual option for 2024.
  • Nick Martinez, RP: $6.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Same structure exists for 2024 and 2025.
  • Robert Suarez, RP: $5MM player option with $1MM buyout.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Padres stole the show at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto in one of the most unique trades in baseball history. He still has a couple years of arbitration eligibility to go, meaning the Friars will be able to enjoy a full season of Soto’s work in 2023. In terms of the other deadline pickups, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are heading to free agency but Josh Hader has one arb year left, allowing the Padres to hang onto him.

Soto will be locked into right field, with Trent Grisham likely next to him in center. Grisham didn’t have a great year at the plate in 2022, but he’s still valuable due to his speed and defense. Left field could be wide open, as Jurickson Profar is lined up to opt out of the final season of his three-year deal. He’s set to make $7.5MM but could take the $1MM buyout and look to find more than $6.5MM on the open market to come out ahead. Wil Myers also saw some time in the outfield in 2022, though the Padres are sure to give him the $1MM buyout instead of picking up his $20MM option.

Of course, one complicating factor that needs to be considered is the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. An injury incurred via motorcycle accident during the lockout kept him out of action for the first half of 2022 and then a PED suspension prevented him appearing in the second half. The Padres will have to make a decision on where Tatis fits after that disappointing sequence of events. He still has 20 games remaining on his suspension but will be eligible to return to the team after that. While he was out of action, Ha-Seong Kim took over the shortstop job and had an excellent season.

Tatis has played some outfield in the past while dealing with injuries that kept him off short. He could theoretically be moved onto the grass going forward, but it seems the club is leaning towards a plan where Tatis returns to short, Kim moves over to second and Jake Cronenworth gets bumped to first. With Myers, Drury and Bell all departing, that would open up first for Cronenworth. Manny Machado is coming off an excellent season and will be a mainstay at third. If that is indeed the plan they wish to follow, adding a corner outfielder should be the main priority on the position player side of things.

The Friars have some internal options who could step up, such as José Azocar or Brandon Dixon, but they should be looking for an upgrade here. The top of the outfield market this winter will be Aaron Judge, who is set up for a massive payday. The Padres have shown they are not afraid to make a huge strike, meaning they can’t be ruled out on getting Judge and perhaps moving Soto over to left. However, with many large contracts already in place, they might opt for more modest options like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley or Mitch Haniger. They could also be a fit for Trey Mancini, who can play first base and the outfield corners. Bringing back Drury and his positional versatility is also a logical move.

Behind the plate, the Padres have three MLB-caliber catchers in place, though they will have to make a decision about whether or not to keep all of them around next year. Jorge Alfaro didn’t get much time behind the plate towards the end of the year, only starting at catcher four times after rosters expanded at the start of September. The rest of the starts went to Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. With Alfaro striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances and not getting great marks for his defensive work, the club likely moves on and lets Campusano finally have some real playing time. He debuted in 2020 but still only has 28 MLB games on his résumé. With Alfaro projected for an arbitration salary of $3.6MM, he’s likely to be non-tendered.

In the rotation, the Padres will still have a strong front three, as Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are all under contract for next year. They will have to make decisions about the backend, though, as Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are both headed into free agency. The Padres also weakened their depth by including MacKenzie Gore in the Soto trade.

There is one in-house option in Adrian Morejon, with the club evidently not giving up on him as a starter. Morejon underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 and returned to make 26 appearances in 2022, though all of those were out of the bullpen. But prior to that, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league. It’s fairly logical that the Padres would want to give him another chance to see what he can do, but it’s also unlikely they will simply hand him a guaranteed spot in the rotation after a long layoff and then a handful of bullpen outings.

There are a couple of other depth options in the system, but the Padres will likely be looking to add two starters. There will be no shortage of options, with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón all expected to trigger opt-outs and form the top of the pitching market. For teams that miss out on those guys, there are still lots of interesting hurlers on the next tier, including Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson and many more. They could also look to the trade market, perhaps trying to get Pablo López or Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. But after unloading so many prospects at the deadline, they might not want to further subtract from their system.

The bullpen also might need some upgrades, especially if Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez both decide to opt out and return to free agency. If they did, they would join Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson, potentially subtracting four arms from the relief corps. They would still have Josh Hader, which is a fine starting point and means they probably won’t go for Edwin Diaz. But they could look for quality setup options, such as bringing back Suarez or going after Michael Fulmer, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Brad Hand. Martinez would reportedly prefer to be a starter, so perhaps they could convince him to stick around, if they think he can handle a rotation spot. Suarez, however, is a virtual lock to test free agency and land a multi-year deal.

Of course, how aggressive they go after filling these vacancies will depend upon the payroll situation. Historically, the Padres were not huge spenders but they have shifted that reputation in recent years, even nudging into luxury tax territory in each of the past two seasons. Roster Resource estimates their actual 2023 payroll to currently be around $187MM though the CBT number is much higher at $213MM. The disparity comes from the fact that CBT calculations are based on the average annual values of contracts, not just the salary earned by the players in 2023, and also factor in player benefits.

It’s unknown at this point how much the club is willing to spend, but it’s possible they could take the same approach as they did in 2022, hovering near the tax line but willing to go over it at the deadline if the right opportunity comes along. The lowest CBT threshold is jumping from $230MM up to $233MM for 2023, but that wouldn’t leave the Padres a lot of room to work with. A few non-tenders would create some more breathing room, but probably only about $5MM or so.

The club has plenty of talent but could use a left fielder, two starting pitchers, some relievers and maybe a first baseman as well. If they only have about $20MM to play with, it will be difficult to accomplish all of that. But the Padres have shown in recent years that they might have more money in the bank than you’d expect. Perhaps this offseason will prove that yet again.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-centric chat on 11-2-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners finally ended their postseason drought, and took a step further in October with a dramatic sweep of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.  Now, the Mariners are looking to shed their other ignominious label as the only one of the 30 MLB teams that has never reached the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodriguez, OF: $195MM through 2034 (based on multiple club and player options, deal could be worth up to $455MM through the 2039 season)
  • Luis Castillo, SP: $101MM through 2027 (conditional option for 2028, either a $25MM vesting option for Castillo or a $5MM club option for the Mariners)
  • Robbie Ray, SP: $94MM through 2026 (Ray can opt out after 2024 season)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $41MM through 2026
  • Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $24MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Evan White, 1B: $20MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; Mariners also hold $11MM club option for 2027 with $1MM buyout, and $12.5MM club option for 2028 with $1MM buyout)
  • Marco Gonzales, SP: $18.5MM through 2024 (no buyout on $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Jesse Winker, OF: $8.25MM through 2023
  • Chris Flexen, SP/RP: $8MM through 2023
  • Andres Munoz, RP: $6MM through 2025 (Mariners hold club options worth $6MM in 2026, $8MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2023 commitments: $96.125MM
Total future commitments: $536.07MM

Free Agents

The Mariners got a jump on some offseason business in August and September when Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo were both signed to contract extensions.  Since 2022 was only Rodriguez’s rookie season, there was less urgency to lock up the burgeoning superstar immediately, and yet the complex and potentially record-setting deal (that could span most of the next two decades) underlined the Mariners’ commitment to Rodriguez as the new face of Seattle baseball.

Castillo would’ve been a free agent after the 2023 season, and in signing him through at least the 2027 season, Seattle doubled down on its commitment to the right-hander after already paying a big prospect price to acquire him from the Reds at the trade deadline.  Extending Castillo also represents the Mariners’ latest investment in their starting rotation, which now consists of two high-paid stars (Castillo and Robbie Ray), two homegrown talents in their pre-arbitration years (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), and two veterans on reasonable contracts (Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen).

Of course, Flexen wasn’t a starter for much of the second half, as he was moved to the bullpen once Castillo came aboard.  He still amassed enough innings to hit a vesting threshold in his initial two-year, $4.75MM deal with the Mariners, thus assuring Flexen of an $8MM salary in 2023.  Flexen and Gonzales have pretty similar profiles as low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurlers, though Gonzales has a much more established track record of limiting hard contact, as well as just a longer track record as an established Major League starter.

With six starting candidates for five rotation spots, it can be assumed that Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby aren’t going anywhere.  That leaves Gonzales and Flexen as possible trade candidates if the M’s did want to deal from this apparent surplus, and Flexen already reportedly received some interest from other teams prior to the deadline.  Flexen is the younger and less expensive of the two, and had a 3.73 ERA/5.00 SIERA and 0.7 fWAR over 137 2/3 innings in 2022, while Gonzales had a 4.13 ERA/4.99 SIERA and only 0.1 fWAR in 183 frames.  Those numbers slightly favor Flexen, but as his SIERA implies, the advanced metrics weren’t impressed with his work last year.

Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, and Bryce Miller represent Seattle’s next wave of young pitchers, with all three expected to make their Triple-A debuts to start off the 2023 season.  If all goes well, at least one of those prospects could be ready to jump to the majors later in 2023, perhaps becoming a new sixth starter/swingman type in their first taste of the big leagues.  Or, the Mariners could possibly acquire a veteran for such a role in the offseason, if one of Gonzales or Flexen was traded.

The other option, naturally, is for the M’s to just stand pat with what is already a strong rotation mix.  The Mariners got an unusual amount of good fortune with the health of their starting pitchers in 2022, and they might just want to keep both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold as additional depth, considering how rare it is for a team to dodge the injury bug for two straight years.

Then again, it’s also pretty rare for a team to post consecutive years of dominance in one-run games.  The Mariners followed up their 33-19 mark in one-run games in 2021 with a 34-22 record last season, defying the conventional wisdom that teams “should” generally finish around .500 in such close contests.  Seattle again beat those odds thanks in large part to an outstanding bullpen that should return mostly intact.

The unpredictable nature of relief pitching means that probably not all of Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, and Matt Brash will continue to pitch as well as they did in 2022, yet that is still quite a core group to have in place as the Mariners look for a few more reinforcements.  Trading from that group is also a possibility, as just like with the rotation, the Mariners’ pitching depth gives them some leverage in exploring deals.  As noted, any of the top prospect starters could also break into the majors as relievers, adding more depth to the pen.

In terms of big-league additions, the M’s already made a move by claiming Luke Weaver off waivers from Kansas City.  Weaver’s first full season as a relief pitcher resulted in a 6.56 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with the Royals and Diamondbacks, but his advanced metrics indicate that Weaver was quite unlucky to post such an ugly ERA.  There isn’t much left-handed depth in the relief corps, though the M’s could at least tender Ryan Borucki a contract and keep him around.  Seattle is also likely to explore re-signing Matt Boyd after he delivered some solid late-season work, but Boyd might prefer a clearer path to a starting job now that he is further removed from his September 2021 flexor tendon surgery.

While the Mariners have one of the more stable pitching situations of any team in baseball, their lineup has several question marks.  Improving the position-player mix will surely be the priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto this winter, and given Dipoto’s signature aggressiveness, nothing can be ruled out.  Signing a major free agent, trading pitching for hitting, trading a younger position player for a more established bat — all of these options and more could be on the table.

There should be a good amount of payroll space to work with, as Roster Resource projects the M’s around $131.5MM in 2023 player payroll (including arbitration estimates), with probably a few million to be shaved off that total via non-tenders.  This leaves Dipoto with plenty of spending capacity before he even reaches the Mariners’ team-record $158MM payroll from 2018, and it also seems quite possible ownership might provide some more funds to help keep the playoff revenues rolling.  Swapping Gonzales or Flexen would be a way of reallocating some money that is already on the books, and the Mariners could perhaps take a flier on another undesirable contract by trading Evan White, who no longer seems to be in the team’s long-term plans.

For a 90-win team, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of positions settled heading into 2023.  Rodriguez will play center field, J.P. Crawford will ostensibly play shortstop (more on that later), Ty France is slated for first base, Eugenio Suarez for third base, and Cal Raleigh slugged his way into establishing himself as the starting catcher once Tom Murphy’s season was cut short by shoulder surgery.  Either Murphy or Luis Torrens could be non-tender candidates, as neither can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

Jesse Winker will receive at least a share of everyday duty in left field, though he will be trying to re-establish himself after an underwhelming first season in Seattle.  Winker hit only .219/.344/.344 over 547 plate appearances, with a reversal of his career-long splits; he struggled badly against right-handed pitching in 2022, while actually posting decent numbers against southpaws.  If Winker can regain his old form next season, that would alone help the Mariners add some more pop to the batting order, though his struggles were somewhat mitigated by Suarez (also acquired from the Reds in basically a salary dump as part of the Winker trade) rediscovering his hitting stroke once joining the M’s.

Between Winker, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty, and utilityman Dylan Moore, the Mariners may have plenty of options for the corner outfield positions….or none, at least for a team that hopes to contend.  Lewis is still working his way back from a torn meniscus in 2021, and while he hit well in Triple-A last year, he struggled over 62 PA in the majors.  Trammell is only 25 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, and he did manage roughly league-average offense in a part-time role last season, but it remains to be seen if he still grow into being a lineup regular or if he might be a fourth-outfielder type.  Haggerty might have hit his own fourth-outfielder ceiling, though he did play quite well in part-time duty in 2022.  Kelenic is a former consensus top-10 prospect, but he has looked totally overmatched at the plate in 558 PA at the big league level.

There is enough potential in this group that the M’s could just roll the dice and hope at least one player breaks out as a reliable everyday option to slot alongside Rodriguez.  As such, Dipoto might wait until closer to the trade deadline to see if any upgrades are necessary to the outfield or DH spot.  Carlos Santana might not be re-signed after posting middling numbers in 2022, and Seattle could just cycle several players into DH duty unless a more consistent bat is needed.

Trading from this outfield group is another possibility, if the Mariners perhaps tried to package one or two of the controllable outfielders to a rebuilding team with an established veteran available.  Such a deal could conceivably happen with or without Mitch Haniger re-signing, though a reunion with Haniger could be the smoothest answer.

Haniger carries plenty of injury baggage.  He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from a ruptured testicle, core muscle surgery and back surgery.  He was then limited to only 57 games in 2022 due to a high ankle sprain (which required a 60-day injured list stint) as well as a two-week absence recovering from COVID-19.  With this recent history in mind, Haniger could be a candidate to accept a qualifying offer, except the Mariners may not want to offer $19.65MM on a one-year deal.  Not issuing a QO, of course, would mean the Mariners wouldn’t get any compensation if he signed elsewhere, and any number of teams will surely have interest in adding Haniger to their rosters.

Seattle might also explore other free agent outfielders beyond Haniger, in search of a player who could provide somewhat comparable offense on a less-expensive one-year deal than the cost of a qualifying offer.  On paper, the M’s have the need and the payroll flexibility to be part of the Aaron Judge conversation, and it’s probably safe to assume the team will check in with Judge’s representatives.  But, there’s a reason Dipoto is known as “Trader Jerry” as opposed to “Signer Jerry” — the executive generally turns to the trade market to make his biggest moves, rather than any huge splashes in the free agent pool.

Then again, Ray was signed for $115MM last winter, which already signals a change in Dipoto’s preferred player-acquisition strategy as the Mariners move into win-now mode.  Dipoto has already indicated he plans to explore the shortstop market this winter, with such notables as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson headlining a deep class.

The catch is the M’s might not necessarily be viewing any of these shortstops as shortstops, since Dipoto’s stated “great preference” is to keep Crawford at shortstop and use any new infielder as a second baseman.  This seems to close the door on the chances of Adam Frazier being re-signed, which isn’t surprising since the former All-Star struggled through a rough 2022 season.  It also reaffirms the Mariners’ commitment to Crawford, who was already signed a contract extension back in April.

Dipoto was also adamant last winter that Crawford was Seattle’s everyday shortstop, which seemed to somewhat limit the Mariners’ involvement in last offseason’s deep shortstop class, even though the M’s did have interest in such players as Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.  It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,” and that Crawford “does a very good job in anything that we asked him to do.”

Moving Crawford to second base could be the more logical move.  MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this subject in greater detail back in August, as Crawford’s glovework declined sharply in the view of public defensive metrics (-11 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.9 UZR/150).  Crawford was dealing with some knee problems last year and therefore might perform closer to his 2020 Gold Glove form when healthy, but a shift over to second base would also help him from a defensive perspective.

Internal options like Moore, Abraham Toro, or even Haggerty and France could help out at second base in a pinch, yet the keystone definitely seems like the Mariners’ top need on the diamond.  If the M’s don’t move Crawford or can’t convince one of the big free agent shortstops to change positions, another route would be to just sign a proper second baseman.  Brandon Drury and former Mariner Jean Segura (if the Phillies decline their club option on Segura) could be targeted, or Seattle could gauge trade possibilities with middle-infield heavy teams like the Guardians, Reds, or Cardinals.

For a team that thrived on its success in tight games, there is some irony in the fact that the Mariners lost all three ALDS games to Houston by a combined total of four runs.  The M’s are hoping the narrow nature of that series is an omen of how they’re starting to close the gap with the Astros for AL West supremacy, and the 2022-23 offseason could be one of the most important in franchise history as Seattle might be a few finishing touches away from a championship contender.

Trade Candidates: Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale

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For the better part of the last decade, the Guardians have been as good as any team in baseball at identifying and developing young pitchers, which has kept the rotation strong despite several notable departures.  Due to Cleveland’s limited payroll, the pattern has been pretty simple — the Guards trade away a prominent name (i.e. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger) when he gets too expensive, and then the club replaces that starter with a fresh face from the farm system, or perhaps a pitcher acquired in the trade.  More often than not, that new hurler then becomes a quality arm in his own right, until his price tag also starts to rise and the pattern then repeats itself.

Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are different kinds of possible trade candidates, as their status isn’t tied to their salaries.  Both pitchers have just reached arbitration eligibility, with Plesac projected for a $2.9MM salary and Civale for $2.2MM in 2023.  These modest starting points mean that even if Plesac or Civale have a pair of excellent seasons in 2023 and 2024, their salaries over his three remaining years of team control should still be manageable even for a cost-conscious organization like the Guardians.

On paper, these are the kinds of pitchers the Guards would seemingly want to hang onto as rotation depth, given their arb control and the decent track records that both hurlers have posted over their four MLB seasons.  The two even have rather similar career numbers, though Plesac has 445 1/3 innings pitched to Civale’s 353 frames.  However, the Guardians are one of the few teams who might have starting pitching depth to spare, and with Plesac and Civale sitting at the back of the rotation, at least one might be expendable enough to move for other roster needs.

Which is the more expendable of the duo?  As noted, their resumes bear a lot of similarities, plus both right-handers are 27 years old (Plesac is about five months older).  The innings gap is perhaps the most notable difference, and though Civale has been the less durable of the two, he might have the more upside.

Civale had a 60-day injured list stint in 2021 due to a sprained middle finger on his right hand.  This limited him to 124 1/3 innings, and that number then dropped to 97 innings last year due to three separate 15-day IL visits.  A wrist sprain, glute strain, and forearm inflammation all kept Civale off the mound, and the bigger-picture concern of the forearm problem dissipated when Civale was able to return after only a minimal absence.  These injuries contributed to a 4.92 ERA for Civale, even if his 3.55 SIERA presented a much more favorable view of his performance.

Civale had an excellent 5.4% walk rate, and above-average strikeout and chase rates.  With a fastball that averaged only 91.2mph, Civale relied on his curveball and sinker, and his spin rates (on his heater and his curve) were among the best in baseball.  Unfortunately, Civale was hit hard in his lone postseason appearance, allowing three runs while only retiring one batter as the Game 5 starter in the ALDS.  This put Cleveland in an early hole that it couldn’t escape, as the Yankees eliminated the Guards from the playoffs.

Plesac posted a 4.31 ERA/4.46 SIERA over 131 2/3 innings in 2022, with an above-average 6.7% walk rate but not much else in the way of secondary metrics.  The right-hander also isn’t a particularly hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats (18.7% career strikeout rate).  In fact, Plesac has posted some of the lower strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons, also sitting near the back of the pack in barrels, barrel rate, and hard-hit ball rate overall.  With a career .265 BABIP, Plesac has gotten some help from the Guardians’ strong defense in limiting the damage from all that hard contact.

While Plesac has been healthier than Civale, Plesac has also spent some time on the IL over the last two seasons, which brings us to the other X-factor in this discussion of trade candidates.  Only those inside the Guardians clubhouse and front office would know the truth of the matter, but there have been some rumblings that Plesac may have worn out his welcome in Cleveland due to concerns about his maturity level.

On the injury front, Plesac didn’t pitch in September of this season due to a fractured pinkie finger in his throwing hand, as Plesac reportedly hurt himself punching the mound in anger over allowing a homer to Seattle’s Jake Lamb on August 27.  He also missed a little over six weeks in 2021 due to a right thumb fracture, which occurred while Plesac was “rather aggressively taking off his undershirt,” in the memorable words of manager Terry Francona.  This made it two temper-related injuries in as many years for Plesac, and that followed his most well-publicized controversy during the shortened 2020 season.

In August of that year, Plesac and Clevinger violated league COVID-19 protocols by leaving the team hotel for a night out in Chicago.  The two pitchers were subsequently placed on the team’s restricted list and then sent to the alternate training site that was served as a de facto minor league camp during the pandemic season.  Plesac was eventually recalled back to the big league roster at the end of August, while the situation was one of the factors in Cleveland’s decision to deal Clevinger to San Diego.

The pitchers’ actions were very poorly received within the clubhouse, as multiple teammates were angered both by their lack of honesty about their actions as well as the health risk created by the protocol violation.  As well, Plesac attempted to defend himself in an Instagram video by claiming the media had overblown the situation, and that ill-advised video also didn’t sit well with teammates.

This incident occurred over two years ago, and to reiterate, it isn’t known if any hard feelings still exist towards Plesac within the Guardians clubhouse.  It may help Plesac that many members of that 2020 roster are no longer with the team, and he is now actually one of the longer-tenured players on a very young Cleveland team.  Still, if weighing which of Civale or Plesac to move in a trade, this past situation might still be a consideration in the front office’s mind.

Prior to the trade deadline, reports suggested that the Guards were open to offers for controllable pitchers, at least as a matter of due diligence.  This immediately sparked a plethora of Shane Bieber rumors, but it doesn’t really seem like a Bieber deal is on Cleveland’s radar in the near future (Steve Adams recently addressed the possibility of a Bieber deal in a piece for MLBTR subscribers).  Triston McKenzie had a breakout year and is controlled through 2026, and Cal Quantrill is another 27-year-old pitcher in his first year of arb-eligibility.  While Quantrill’s projected $6MM salary is significantly higher than Plesac or Civale, Quantrill has also done more to establish himself as a reliable arm.  Cleveland turned to Quantrill for two postseason starts, while Civale and Plesac were both somewhat reduced to afterthought status in the playoffs.

Konnor Pilkington made 11 starts for the Guardians last season, and Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and Cody Morris were among the other young starters who made their Major League debuts last season.  Daniel Espino is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and seems ready to make his debut at some point in 2023.  Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are also top-100 prospects who could be late-season callups, and there are other pitchers within Cleveland’s upper tier of arms that might factor into their 2023 plans.  There is enough depth and potential here that the Guards might feel like they can readily replace Civale’s 1.3 fWAR or Plesac’s 0.9 fWAR from the 2022 season.

That said, quite a few teams would happily take Civale or Plesac’s contributions in their rotations.  Either pitcher could be seen as a change-of-scenery or even a buy-low candidate, though the three seasons of arbitration control would still allow Cleveland to ask for an interesting return.  The Phillies reportedly checked in on Plesac in July, and purely speculatively, Civale or Plesac might have particular appeal to ex-Cleveland staffers now working for other teams.  Former Guardians assistant GM Carter Hawkins might want to reunite with either pitcher now that Hawkins is the Cubs’ general manager, or former Cleveland assistant director of pitching development Matt Blake might feel he can get either right-hander on track in his current role as the Yankees’ pitching coach.

As always, the “you can never have too much pitching” credo must be mentioned, as the Guardians aren’t under any real pressure to move any of their arms.  A strong rotation is such a backbone of the Guards’ team, in fact, that they might even be a little less willing to deal from their surplus just in case the younger pitchers aren’t ready to contribute to a contending team.  Still, teams in need of pitching will unquestionably be sending a lot of offers in Cleveland’s direction, and Civale and Plesac might be the two most logical names to be dangled.

Breakout Candidate: Bryan De La Cruz

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As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discusses in his Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook, the Fish are still looking for quality hitters. Despite spending the 2021 offseason improving their outfield by bringing in Avisaíl García (four-year, $53MM) and Jorge Soler (three-year, $36MM), neither player had overly productive seasons, and the Marlins are still looking for their first potent outfield since the 2017 homegrown trio of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton. Like that 2017 Marlins outfield, the Fish might already have a future outfield building block on their team in 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz.

Originally signed when he was 16-years-old by the Astros for $170K in 2013, De La Cruz made his Astros debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2014. He progressed quickly, joining Double-A Corpus Christi when he was only 20. However, De La Cruz had a challenging time adjusting to higher-level pitching and bounced between Low-A and Double-A during the 2017-2019 seasons before eventually reaching Triple-A Sugar Land in 2021 where he hit a robust .324/.362/.518.

At the 2021 Trade Deadline, the Astros traded De La Cruz to the Marlins as part of a package for reliever Yimi Garcia. When De La Cruz arrived in Miami, he continued his strong hitting slashing .296/.356/.427 (114 wRC+) in 199 at-bats. However, his 2022 season would not be as successful.

During the 2022 season, De La Cruz showed flashes of excellence, hitting .313/.476/.500 over his first 14 games before faltering and slashing .197/.229/320 from May through August. However, De La Cruz finished strong. In his final 85 at-bats, the righty mashed an extraordinary .388/.419/.718 with six homers and ten doubles. De La Cruz also spent time in Triple-A, mashing .320/.370/.620 in 50 at-bats. Collectively, De La Cruz finished the season with a positive .252/.294/.432 (104 wRC+) line, although marked by inconsistently.

Nevertheless, De La Cruz’s underlying metrics show promise. Out of all outfielders who had at least 300 plate appearances this past season, the righty had the ninth-highest HardHit rate (39.5%), greater than Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Kyle Schwarber, and Mookie Betts. Additionally, out of all outfielders with 300+ plate appearances, De La Cruz ranks second in Soft Contact, only behind MVP-favorite Aaron Judge. Statcast is even more bullish on De La Cruz’s bat, ranking him in the 82nd percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 84th percentile for Barrel%, and 86th percentile for HardHit Rate among all 2022 batters.

So, what is holding Bryan De La Cruz back?

While his 2022 strikeout rate is a bit above league average (25.4% vs. 22.4%), his 2022 walk rate is below league average (5.4% vs. 8.2%). However, a closer examination of De La Cruz’s walk rate shows a different story. De La Cruz generated 5 walks in his first 21 plate appearances (23.8%), and only 14 over and his next 334 plate appearances (4.2%). Thus, a limiting factor in De La Cruz’s offensive potential is his free-swing approach.

Statcast ranks De La Cruz in the 34th percentile for Chase Rate and 22nd percentile for Whiff%. Combined with a low propensity for walks, this lack of strike zone command hinders De La Cruz’s ability to fully utilize his bat.

Look no further than De La Cruz’s magical final 85 at-bats. During September and October, the outfielder dropped his strikeout rate to 21.3% and increased his walk rate to 5.3%, the second-highest mark for a month-long period during his 2022 season.

Additionally, when analyzing De La Cruz’s success during his stints in Triple-A Jacksonville and Sugar Land, it is clear that the righty can control the zone. During 2021 in Sugar Land, De La Cruz walked at a 5.8% clip but only struck out in 20.1% of all at-bats. Similarly, during his time in Jacksonville, the righty walked at a strong 7.4% and struck out at a 24.1% rate.

On the defensive side of the field, De La Cruz has split his time between all three outfield positions but is rated between slightly-below-average to below-average, depending on the metric (-1 by DRS, -5.8 by UZR, and -3 OAA). While he possesses slightly above-average sprint speed (62nd percentile) and outfielder jump (60th percentile), De La Cruz will likely develop into a corner outfielder with his strong arm reaching 96 mph during the 2022 season.

As with most young hitters, adjusting to Major League pitching takes time and patience. Early struggles controlling the strike zone are not rare, and De La Cruz’s raw talent has produced mammoth results, albeit inconsistently. With De La Cruz only arbitration-eligible after the 2024 season and making the league minimum, the Marlins have time to evaluate his growth.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets threw a lot of money last offseason, which got them into the postseason in 2022. But after losing their first-round matchup to the Padres, they are now about to see a huge chunk of their roster head to free agency. That means they might have to keep the wallet open if they want to take another shot in 2023.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $306.9MM through 2031. $50MM of his extension was deferred and will be paid out in $5MM installments from 2032-2041.
  • Max Scherzer, SP: $86.667 through 2024. Scherzer can opt out after 2023.
  • Starling Marte, OF: $62.25MM through 2025.
  • Jacob deGrom, SP: $34.5MM through 2023 plus $32.5MM club option for 2024. deGrom can opt out after 2022. Some deferred money to be paid out starting in 2035.
  • James McCann, C: $24MM through 2024.
  • Mark Canha, OF: $12.5MM through 2023, including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024.
  • Eduardo Escobar, IF: $10MM through 2023, including $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2024.
  • Darin Ruf, IF/OF: $3.25MM through 2023, including $250K buyout on $3.5MM club option for 2024.
  • Robinson Cano, IF: $24MM through 2023. Cano was released in 2022 and is now a free agent, but the Mets are still on the hook for the last year of his deal.

Total 2023 commitments: $182.4MM, assuming deGrom opts out.
Total future commitments: $564.067MM, assuming deGrom opts out.

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Fans have long called for the Mets to act like a big market team, and it finally happened this year. The second year under owner Steve Cohen, the club gave out four big free agent deals last winter, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. All four of those players got eight-figure contracts, with Scherzer getting into nine figures on a three-year deal that set a new record for average annual value.

When combined with the contracts already on the books, the Mets ended up with an Opening Day payroll of just under $265MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was more than $100MM more than anything they’d done in the pre-Cohen era and an increase of about $70MM on Cohen’s first season in charge. In terms of the luxury tax, which is calculated based on the AAV of contracts and not the 2022 salaries, the Mets were much higher. Ronald Blum of The Associated Press reported that the Mets finished 2022 with a Competitive Balance Tax number of $298.8MM, leading to a tax bill of $29.9MM.

All of that spending translated into quality on-the-field results, for the most part. The Mets led the NL East for the majority of the season, finishing with a record of 101-61. That was the second-highest win total in franchise history, eclipsed only by the 108 wins of the 1986 squad. Unfortunately, the Braves got red hot in the second half and also managed to get to 101 wins, sneaking past the Mets to the divisional title on a tiebreaker. The Mets still nabbed the top NL Wild Card spot, qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2016. Unfortunately, they were dispatched by the Padres in the best-of-three Wild Card series.

On the heels of that disappointing finish, the club will now be thinking about how to put together a team for 2023. It’s possible that there will be a high amount of turnover, especially on the pitching staff, leading to the roster looking very different next year. In terms of the starting rotation, the Mets had six guys who made more than 10 starts in 2022, four of whom are now likely to become free agents. Jacob deGrom has long maintained that he intends to trigger his opt-out provision once the offseason begins, even when he was injured and his status was questionable. Chris Bassitt has a mutual option, with those deals almost never triggered by both parties. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option but with a hefty $3MM buyout. He should take the latter and leave $4.5MM on the table, but then easily eclipse that in free agency. Carlos Carrasco can be retained via a club option, which is a bit risky given that he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to pitch more than 152 innings since 2018. However, given the potential for so many losses, the Mets will likely keep him around.

Assuming the Mets do indeed decide to keep Carrasco, he will slot into the rotation next to Max Scherzer, who will enter the second year of his deal, and David Peterson, who has not yet reached arbitration but could qualify this year depending on where the Super Two cutoff ends up. There are some in-house options to fill out the backend, such as Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but the Mets will certainly look to make additions here.

Whether deGrom can be lured back to Queens will likely be a story that dominates the headlines until it’s resolved. He reportedly has a preference to be closer to his family home in Florida, though it’s unlikely that would be strong enough for him to accept significantly smaller deals than he would find elsewhere. He will still need to be paid something resembling his market value. The Mets have shown they are willing to spend big on the players they want, but deGrom will turn 35 in June and is likely looking at deals somewhat similar to the short-term, high AAV contract that Scherzer got. Even if they are willing to spend, would the Mets want around $80-90MM devoted to just two pitchers?

If the Mets decide to let deGrom go, there will be plenty of other options. Carlos Rodon will be one of the most sought-after pitchers this winter, though he is much younger, about to turn 30. That means he will likely be seeking a longer pact but with a lower AAV than deGrom, which might be more appetizing to the Mets. The tier below Rodon will feature many pitchers who are quite good, though not quite at that ace level. Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Anderson, Kodai Senga, Mike Clevinger, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha are just some of the names in this bracket, which also includes old friend Chris Bassitt. It’s possible the Mets would prefer to spread some money around to a few guys at this level, as opposed to putting all of their eggs into an ace basket. Given the high amount of turnover that’s possible, there would be an argument for taking this approach.

Speaking of turnover, how about this bullpen? Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all heading into the open market this winter. Mychal Givens has a mutual option and will likely be joining them. That leaves the Mets with Drew Smith as the only guy who threw more than 25 innings in 2022 to still be around. Though there are some other arms around, they are better suited to depth options. That means the Mets will effectively be looking to rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Much of the attention will be on Edwin Diaz, given that he has established himself as one of the best relievers in the game. However, that also means he will be looking at a huge payday, possibly even becoming the first reliever to crack nine digits. With so many holes in the relief corps, perhaps the Mets will look to spread some money around to a handful of different arms instead of focusing on a lockdown closer.

If there’s one thing working in the Mets’ favor this winter, it’s that the position player core is much more stable. Outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin are headed for free agency, but the whole gang will be coming back apart from that. The losses of Nimmo and Naquin will certainly hurt the club’s outfield depth, but they still have options there. Marte could slide over from right field and take over Nimmo’s center field duties. Canha can be pencilled into one corner. Jeff McNeil has split his time between the infield and outfield but could spend more time on the grass going forward. Dominic Smith is still under club control and could get the playing time he was lacking in 2022, though he could also be non-tendered after a down year. That’s a serviceable group, though the Mets could certainly look to bolster it, either by re-signing Nimmo or acquiring someone else. Nimmo won’t be cheap, however, as he’s clearly the best center field option on the market this year and many teams have a need for such a player. Given the free spending of the Cohen era, some fans might dream of the Mets plucking Aaron Judge from the Bronx and placing him in Queens. But given the multiple areas of need, it’s possible they look to cheaper options like Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger or Michael Brantley.

On the infield, there are a few locks and a few maybes. Francisco Lindor will be the shortstop and Pete Alonso will be at first base. Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme are the most obvious first for third and second base, respectively, though there are some other routes the club could take. If they do end up signing an outfielder, it would free McNeil up to stay on the dirt. There are also youngsters to consider, as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty both made their MLB debuts in 2022. Neither of them excelled in their brief MLB appearances, but each of them has crushed minor league pitching. If the Mets are willing to roll the dice on one of those two holding down the hot corner, perhaps they could try flipping Escobar to help fill in the gaps on the pitching staff.

There’s one other area where the youth factor will come into play. Behind the plate, James McCann was gradually eclipsed by Tomas Nido throughout 2022. The Mets also promoted Francisco Alvarez late in the year, who is considered by some evaluators to be the best prospect in the league at the moment. He’s still quite young, about to turn 21, and has played just 50 games above the Double-A level. He’s hit everywhere he goes but his defense is considered to be a bit behind his bat. The Mets could start him in Triple-A in 2023 while he continues to develop, but they could also be bold and pave the way for him. McCann’s contract is underwater at this point, after two consecutive poor seasons and two years left to go. But if the Mets are willing to eat some money, perhaps they can find a taker and let Alvarez spread his wings and fly.

Ultimately, how the Mets approach these different areas will depend on the budget. The high amount of roster turnover creates challenges but also frees up some spending room. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s 2023 payroll at $231MM and CBT number at $238MM, though deGrom’s opt out and a non-tender of Smith would drop those by almost $40MM. Exercising Carrasco’s option would add $11MM and put the club just over $200MM in terms of real pa. General manager Billy Eppler spoke with the media recently and said he doesn’t anticipate any kind of budget cuts this year, though he didn’t provide any kind of specific target number. If they decide to go into 2023 with a payroll similar to the $265MM Opening Day figure they had here in 2022, that could leave them with around $60MM to spend.

That’s a decent chunk of change, though the Mets have many holes that need filling. They need at least one starting pitcher, perhaps two, along with an entire bullpen. Adding another outfielder makes sense. deGrom alone is likely to pass $40MM in terms of the AAV on his deal. Nimmo, Bassitt and Diaz will likely be in the $20MM range. Shopping in that aisle will likely require the Mets to increase the payroll closer to $300MM, something that Cohen is apparently open to, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Trading Escobar and McCann to address some of the gaps would help with the financial squeeze, but those moves would also come with the risk of handing prominent roles to unproven prospects. Perhaps the club will avoid the top names on the market and spread their money around to more second-tier free agents. There are many ways that Eppler could approach his second offseason making the baseball decisions for the Mets. But there’s no doubt they will be active one way or another, making them one of the most fascinating franchises to watch yet again.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mets-centric chat on 10-29-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

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MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters now covered, we turn our attention to the pitching. This offseason’s starting pitching class features a handful of the game’s highest-upside arms at the top and a seemingly endless supply of back-of-the-rotation innings-eaters beyond them.

Opt-Out Aces

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. His fastball regularly pushes triple-digits, and he backs it up with a power slider that averaged an absurd 92.6 MPH this past season. No pitcher comes close to matching deGrom’s ability to miss bats, and the two-time Cy Young winner has never posted a single-season ERA higher than 3.53. This year’s 3.08 ERA through 64 1/3 frames is actually the second-highest mark of his career, but that’s largely attributable to some late-season homer troubles that aren’t likely to alarm teams. He fanned 42.7% of opposing hitters against just a 3.3% walk percentage.

While there’s no question about deGrom’s performance, he’ll hit the market with some concerns about his durability. He missed over a full calendar year between July 2021 and this past August due to various arm issues. After battling elbow discomfort late last season, he lost the first half of the 2022 campaign to a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade). deGrom returned brandishing the same otherworldly raw stuff and finished the season healthy, but between the truncated 2020 schedule and the various ailments the past two years, he’s made just 38 combined starts since the start of 2020.

Between the injury history and deGrom’s age — he turns 35 next June — it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to top three years on the open market. There’s no question he’ll find one of the loftiest average annual salaries ever, and he’ll have a strong case to top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV for the all-time record. deGrom is a lock to opt out of the $32.5MM remaining on his deal with the Mets before receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer.

Rodon had a breakout 2021 season with the White Sox, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while striking out 34.6% of opponents. He missed a few weeks late that summer with shoulder soreness, though, and his velocity was down a few ticks when he made his return. It earned him an All-Star nod and a fifth-place Cy Young finish, but there seemed enough trepidation about the health of his shoulder he didn’t find a long-term deal to his liking.

The southpaw bet on himself, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. His season in San Francisco was arguably even better than his final year on the South Side of Chicago. Rodon avoided the injured list (aside from a season-ending stint related to a pre-planned innings limit) and made a career-high 31 starts. Through 178 innings, he posted a 2.88 ERA while punching out more than a third of opponents. His fastball velocity held steady in the 95-96 MPH range, and he got swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings for a second straight season.

This time around, Rodon should find the megadeal that eluded him last winter. He’s certain to decline the final $22.5MM on his deal with San Francisco and set out in search of a five-plus year pact that tops the deals awarded to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray a year ago. Rodon will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Verlander missed almost two full seasons from 2020-21 working back from Tommy John surgery. The Astros kept close tabs on his rehab and were sufficiently bullish on his outlook to guarantee him $25MM to return for this season. That deal also contained a $25MM player option conditional on reaching 130 innings, but there’s no chance Verlander exercises that. The Astros’ bet on Verlander paid off better than even the club could’ve reasonably expected, as he’s likely headed to a third Cy Young after pitching to a 1.75 ERA over 175 frames.

While his strikeout rate was down a few points relative to his pre-surgery form, Verlander still fanned a strong 27.8% of opponents against a tiny 4.4% walk rate. His fastball velocity was back in the 95 MPH range. He missed a few weeks late in the year with a calf issue but returned to help the Astros to an American League pennant.

It was a remarkable age-39 campaign, and Verlander joins deGrom in hitting the market with a reasonable shot at topping Scherzer’s all-time AAV. He rejected a qualifying offer last offseason and won’t be eligible for another this winter. Verlander is five years older than deGrom and three years older than Scherzer was last winter, making his free agency even more unprecedented than Scherzer’s. Will there be a three-year deal that takes the future Hall of Famer through age-42 and pushes his overall guarantee north of $100MM?

His Own Bucket

The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but Kershaw still provides ace-caliber production on a rate basis. Signed to a $17MM guarantee to return to Los Angeles last offseason, he responded with a 2.28 ERA through 126 1/3 frames. Kershaw punched out 27.8% of opponents and continued to demonstrate elite command while walking fewer than 5% of batters faced. Even with a fastball that averages just north of 90 MPH, he has no difficulty missing bats in bunches.

Injuries have been problematic for Kershaw in recent years. He ended 2021 on the IL with a forearm issue, and he dealt with back and hip problems this year. He’s not going to make 30+ starts annually at this stage of his career, but few pitchers are as strong a bet for 20 excellent outings. The three-time Cy Young winner has indicated he’s likely to continue pitching in 2023. The Dodgers can technically make him a qualifying offer but appear unlikely to do so as they give him time to weigh his options; they’ll assuredly look to bring him back in free agency.

NPB Star

Senga is an international free agent and will be a Wild Card entrant into this offseason’s class. He’s never played in the majors but has indicated his desire to make the jump from Japan’s NPB to the big leagues. An 11-year member of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Senga has a career 2.59 ERA in Japan’s top level. He posted a sterling 1.94 mark through 144 innings this year, striking out an impressive 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. Teams’ evaluations of Senga figure to vary depending on their scouts’ determination of his arsenal and command projection, but a club that thinks he’s capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB rotation could have him as the fourth or fifth-best starter on the market.

Mid-Rotation Veterans

Bassitt has been a durable, above-average starter for four straight seasons. He’s posted an ERA of 3.81 or lower every year since 2019, relying on a deep repertoire and plus control. Bassitt handles hitters from both sides of the plate, generally avoiding hard contact and pounding the strike zone. He’s consistently posted low averages on balls in play and hasn’t allowed opponents to reach base at better than a .303 clip in any of the last four years.

His 93-94 MPH fastball is solid, but Bassitt has never gotten huge swing-and-miss or chase rates. He’s not overpowering, but he’s demonstrated a consistent knack for keeping batters off balance and limiting damage. He’s earned playoff starts in both Oakland and Queens in recent years and fits well in the middle of a contending club’s rotation. Headed into his age-34 campaign, Bassitt may be limited to three-year offers, but he should find a strong annual salary over that shorter term. He’s a virtual lock to receive and decline a QO.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal with the Red Sox. He rebounded from a tough 2019 campaign to post a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past three seasons. That includes a 3.87 mark this past season, one in which he logged 109 1/3 innings. Eovaldi has never posted the elite strikeout numbers one might expect for a pitcher whose fastball typically lives in the mid-upper 90s, but he does punch batters out at a slightly above-average clip. He also has elite control and has walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the last three seasons. He’s a bit home run prone at times but his strong strikeout and walk profile props up solid mid-rotation production overall.

While Eovaldi has averaged north of 97 MPH on his heater for much of his career, his fastball took a slight step back to 95.7 MPH this year. Paired with his age, that’s at least a bit of a warning sign, but he still throws sufficiently hard and had a solid 2022 season when healthy. Eovaldi did battle a pair of injuries, landing on the IL twice due to inflammation in his back and throwing shoulder. The Red Sox can and seem likely to issue him a qualifying offer.

Third Tier Mid-Rotation Types

Anderson worked as an innings-eater with the Pirates and Mariners last year. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, he continued to soak up innings while pitching to a career-low 2.57 ERA. Anderson’s 19.5% strikeout rate is fairly modest and right in line with those of previous seasons, but he’s an excellent strike-thrower who excels at getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. He doesn’t throw all that hard and he’s soon to be 33 years old, although he consistently thrives at avoiding hard contact. He’s a borderline QO candidate and could land a three-year deal this winter.

Clevinger was a high-end starter during his best days with the Indians, posting an ERA between 2.71 and 3.11 each season from 2017-19. Dealt from Cleveland to San Diego midway through the 2020 campaign, the right-hander required Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) that cost him all of 2021. He made it back to the mound this year but didn’t look much like his former self, posting a 4.33 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate that’s nearly ten points lower than his 2017-19 mark. Clevinger was also hit hard in his two postseason outings, making it an inopportune time to hit the market. On the plus side, he still averages north of 93 MPH on his fastball and has strong control. A team that thinks he can bounce back to more closely approximate his pre-surgery form could offer multiple years.

Heaney has long tantalized teams with quality strikeout and walk numbers, but homer troubles have led to some inconsistent ERA’s over the years. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as Heaney turned in a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 frames on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. He flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 35.5% of opponents on a massive 16.8% swinging strike rate. It wasn’t quite a breakout season, as the southpaw lost a few months to repeated shoulder issues. When healthy, however, he showed top-flight bat-missing ability that should land him a solid multi-year pact this offseason. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Generally a solid mid-rotation starter in Oakland, Manaea went to San Diego during Spring Training as part of the A’s teardown. His first (and likely only) campaign as a Padre didn’t go as planned. The southpaw started the season fine but was knocked around in the second half en route to a career-worst 4.96 ERA in 158 innings. Manaea still had decent strikeout and walk numbers and an above-average 12% swinging strike rate, giving some hope for a bounceback. He’s consistently given up his fair share of hard contact, but that wasn’t so much an issue in Oakland’s spacious home ballpark. There’ll be multi-year deals out there based on his general decent track record and strikeouts, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he may prefer a one-year pact to rebuild value after a tough final few months.

A former top prospect, Perez has gotten plenty of opportunities from teams searching for the breakout season. The Rangers, his original organization, brought him back last winter and were rewarded with the awaited career year. He made 32 starts and narrowly fell shy of 200 innings while posting a stellar 2.89 ERA. The southpaw’s 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage were still each below-average, but he showed strong control and induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him. Perez has played his way into a multi-year deal, and the Rangers could tag him with a qualifying offer. Both sides have expressed interest in hammering out an extension that keeps him in Arlington.

One of the game’s most durable and consistent starters during his peak with the White Sox and Cubs, Quintana’s production slipped in 2019 and his shortened 2020 season was mostly wiped out after a hand injury that required stitches prevented him from throwing. A 2021 rebound effort with the Halos didn’t pan out, but Quintana bounced back to his vintage form in 2022. Tossing a combined 165 2/3 innings between the Pirates and Cardinals, he logged a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. It’s enough to put Quintana back in the mix for a two-year deal as a solid mid-rotation option.

Smyly missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to an oblique strain and averaged fewer than five innings per start when healthy enough to pitch. His results were solid, however, with a 3.47 ERA, a 20.4% strikeout rate and a terrific 5.8% walk rate. Smyly was a buzz name coming off a 37.8% strikeout rate through 26 1/3 innings with the Giants during the shortened 2020 season, but he’s notched a 4.02 ERA in 233 innings since that time. That said, Smyly’s swinging-strike rate (12.4%) and chase rate (36.4%) in 2022 suggest there could be more punchouts in the tank.

A valuable swingman for years with the Dodgers, Stripling had a tough season-plus in Toronto following a 2020 trade. Forced into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2022 when Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, Stripling was a godsend. The right-hander finished out the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 frames, with 24 of his 32 appearances coming as a starter. Stripling has a below-average strikeout rate but showed elite command in 2022. He probably won’t replicate a 3.7% walk rate, but his career 5.7% mark shows that his plus command is real. He has a strong case for a full-time rotation job somewhere in free agency.

A borderline ace during his top seasons in Queens, Syndergaard rode an upper-90s heater and a power slider to a 3.31 ERA in 716 career innings through the end of the 2019 campaign. In Spring Training 2020, he was diagnosed with an elbow strain that required Tommy John surgery. He missed almost all of the next two years, returning for a cameo late in 2021. The Angels signed him to a $21MM deal last offseason in hopes he’d recapture his prior form, but Syndergaard served more as a solid mid-rotation control artist than a bat-missing ace. Between Anaheim and Philadelphia, he put up a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 frames. He only punched out 16.8% of opponents, but his 5.5% walk percentage was excellent. Syndergaard’s fastball was down to the 94-95 MPH range and his slider came in just under 85 MPH. He wasn’t his peak self, but he was still an effective starter. At age 30, there’s still a chance he regains some of his pre-surgery form as he pulls further away from the procedure, but it wasn’t the dominant 2022 showing Syndergaard or the Angels were hoping to see 12 months ago.

The No. 2 overall pick in 2010 and long one of MLB’s premier pitching prospects, Taillon has put his 2019 Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) in the rearview mirror. Teams will have concerns surrounding any two-time Tommy John patient, but Taillon has pitched 321 2/3 innings over 61 starts since being traded to the Yankees two offseasons ago. In that time, he’s logged a 4.08 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout numbers and strong walk rates. Taillon has never put together an elite season as many hoped during his prospect days, but he’s also never had a truly bad season when healthy. He’s settled in as a solid third or fourth starter and should be popular among teams seeking rotation help but unwilling to spend at the top of the market.

A former first-round pick and top prospect, Wacha battled injuries through his arbitration years in St. Louis. He’s signed a trio of one-year, Major League deals in free agency despite pitching near replacement level from 2019-21. He rewarded the Red Sox’ faith, however, by tossing 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Like many in this tier, Wacha has a below-average strikeout rate (20.2%) but strong command (6% walk rate). He missed more than a month this summer with shoulder troubles — not a new issue for him — but was sharp when on the mound. Several Boston beat writers have pegged Wacha as a qualifying offer candidate, and if the Sox make that $19.65MM offer he should take it. If not, he could find a multi-year deal.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

A longtime starter with the Tigers, Boyd underwent flexor surgery late in the 2021 season. Detroit non-tendered him as a result, and he worked in relief for the final month this year with the Mariners upon returning to health. The southpaw had wobbly control but missed bats at a slightly above-average rate, as he has throughout his career. With a healthy offseason upcoming, he can could get new rotation opportunities this winter.

Eflin has been a stable back-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies for the past five years. He’s a quality strike-thrower who generates a decent number of grounders with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. As one of the younger arms on the market, he looked on his way to a strong free agent deal. Unfortunately, he missed a good chunk of this past season with a right knee injury. That’s a continuation of career-long knee issues, as Eflin has undergone surgery on both knees and been open about his longstanding battle with pain in the joints. Upon returning late in the season, Eflin has worked out of the bullpen as a reflection of the shorter rehab time. He’s been a trusted high-leverage reliever for the Phils during their postseason run. He’ll likely look to get another rotation job heading into next year, but the bullpen could be a solid fallback if he again is faced with injury setbacks.

A longtime reliever, Lorenzen set his sights on a rotation spot in free agency last winter. He got that shot with the Angels, with whom he wound up making 18 starts. The right-hander posted a 4.24 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers, although he held his mid-90s velocity in longer stints and did a decent job turning lineups over multiple times in a game. He’ll probably find some teams interested in moving him back to the bullpen, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets another rotation opportunity.

Strahm came out of the bullpen 50 times for the Red Sox this year, posting a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings. He punched out almost 27% of opponents, while showing solid control and a deeper repertoire than that possessed by most relievers. That’s relevant since Strahm has spoken about a willingness to consider rotation opportunities if those are presented. He’ll certainly draw interest as a left-handed bullpen option, but there may be enough interest to get him his first extended look as a starter since 2019, as there was with Lorenzen last winter.

Short-Term Former Stars

Cueto signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last offseason after a six-year run with the Giants. The veteran made it to the majors in mid-May and surprisingly served as one of Chicago’s more consistently effective starters. He posted a 3.35 ERA through 158 1/3 innings, averaging more than six innings per outing over his 25 appearances. Cueto only struck out 15.7% of batters faced, but he demonstrated elite control and kept the White Sox in the game more often than not. Between his age, lack of missed bats and a fastball that averaged just over 91 MPH, he won’t land a huge deal, but he’s certainly pitched himself into a guaranteed rotation spot on a higher base salary than the prorated $4MM he made in Chicago this past season.

A likely future Hall of Famer, Greinke is now a reliable back-of-the-rotation option. His fastball is below 90 MPH and he struck out a career-worst 12.5% of opposing hitters during his return to the Royals this year. It certainly wasn’t a vintage Greinke performance, but he walked fewer than 5% of opponents and posted a strong 3.68 ERA. Even at 39 years old, the six-time All-Star will receive major league offers and a rotation spot next year.

Kluber missed a good chunk of the 2021 season with the Yankees, leading to an $8MM guarantee with $5MM available in incentives on last winter’s deal with the Rays. The two-time Cy Young winner stayed healthy all year and made 31 starts, triggering all his incentives by soaking up 164 innings. He posted a 4.34 ERA but walked a minuscule 3% of batters faced. Kluber’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH, but he still generated swinging strikes on more than 11% of his offerings and was adept at getting opponents to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He has a good chance at beating last offseason’s $8MM guarantee as a result.

Depth Types

  • Chris Archer (34): After a few seasons affected by injury, Archer managed 25 starts this year with the Twins. He worked to a 4.56 ERA through 102 2/3 innings with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. His days as an upper mid-rotation arm are behind him, but he could find another big league contract as a back-of-the-rotation type.
  • Zach Davies (30): Davies started 27 games for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.09 ERA. He doesn’t miss many bats but he’s typically been a durable source of back-of-the-rotation innings.
  • Kyle Gibson (35): A 2021 trade deadline pickup after a strong start with the Rangers, Gibson has underperformed in Philadelphia. He has a 5.06 ERA in 43 starts as a Phillie. His peripherals are more solid: a quality ground-ball rate and solid strike-throwing paired with slightly below-average swing-and-miss numbers. Gibson’s a capable fourth/fifth starter.
  • Rich Hill (43): Even headed into his age-43 season, Hill plans to continue pitching. He signed with his hometown Red Sox last winter and provided a 4.27 ERA across 124 1/3 innings. His swing-and-miss rate and velocity are below-average, but he’s a respected veteran who throws strikes and has generally kept runs off the board since his late-career renaissance.
  • Wade Miley (36): Miley was one of the more effective starters in the National League a season ago, pitching to a 3.37 ERA over 163 innings in 2021. Claimed off waivers by the Cubs last winter, he battled injuries throughout the season and was limited to 37 innings.
  • Trevor Williams (31): Williams pitched in a swing role with the Mets, starting nine of 30 outings. The veteran right-hander had a 4.19 ERA as a starter but posted a much more impressive 2.51 mark in 51 innings of relief.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • Chase Anderson (35): Anderson spent the bulk of the season working in Triple-A, but he picked up nine late-season appearances with the Reds. He posted a 6.38 ERA through 24 innings.
  • Kohei Arihara (30): A mid-rotation starter in Japan, Arihara signed a two-year deal with the Rangers over the 2020-21 offseason. He managed only a 7.57 ERA in 15 appearances over two years in Arlington. Arihara will be looking at minor league offers from affiliated teams, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he explores NPB opportunities.
  • Tyler Beede (30): A former first-rounder and well-regarded pitching prospect, Beede mostly worked out of the bullpen with the Giants and Pirates this year. He did pick up five starts in 31 outings and posted an overall 5.14 ERA before clearing waivers late in the season.
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (31): Gonzalez suited up with three different teams in 2022, bouncing around on waivers and via minor league deals. He made five starts in seven appearances and posted a 5.87 ERA across 23 frames.
  • Drew Hutchison (32): The Tigers turned to Hutchison for his greatest workload since 2015. He soaked up 105 1/3 innings in a swing role, managing a 4.53 ERA.
  • Dallas Keuchel (35): The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has fallen on hard times in recent years. He bounced between three clubs this past season but was tagged for a 9.20 ERA through 60 2/3 frames.
  • Chad Kuhl (30): Signed to a $3MM guarantee by the Rockies last winter, Kuhl got off to a strong start in Colorado. He was hit hard in the second half and finished the year with a career-worst 5.72 ERA across 137 innings.
  • Mike Mayers (31): A productive reliever for the Angels from 2020-21, Mayers had a rough season. He posted a 5.68 ERA over 50 2/3 innings and was waived twice during the year. He did make a trio of big league starts, topping out at 5 1/3 innings in an outing, but he figures to draw more bullpen interest as a minor league free agent.
  • Michael Pineda (34): Typically a solid back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Pineda had an injury-plagued 2022 season with the Tigers. He was limited to 11 starts by a hand fracture and some triceps soreness. The non-competitive Detroit club released him before the end of the season to get a longer look at some of their controllable arms.
  • Josh Rogers (28): Rogers had an impressive five-start run late in 2021 to earn a season-opening roster spot in Washington. He couldn’t carry it over in 2022, posting a 5.13 ERA through 26 1/3 frames as a swingman before being cut loose. He spent the rest of the year in Triple-A with the Marlins.
  • Joe Ross (30): Ross has flashed mid-rotation potential at times in his career, but he hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2016. He underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and might be looking at minor league offers while he rehabs. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, but a late-season return in 2023 doesn’t seem out of the question.
  • Aaron Sanchez (30): The former AL ERA champ has settled into journeyman territory at this stage of his career. He started 10 of 15 games for the Nationals and Twins this year, putting up a 6.60 ERA across 60 innings of work.
  • Anibal Sanchez (39): Sanchez returned after a year away to start 14 games for the Nationals. The veteran righty posted a respectable 4.28 ERA but struggled with walks and home runs.
  • Devin Smeltzer (27): Smeltzer picked up 12 starts in 15 appearances for the Twins in a depth capacity. He worked to a 3.71 ERA but only struck out 13.2% of opponents while working with a fastball that averaged just north of 89 MPH. He went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the season.
  • Jose Urena (31): Urena latched on with the Rockies midseason and made 17 starts. The former Marlin right-hander posted a 5.14 ERA across 89 1/3 innings, although he did show his typically strong velocity and ground-ball proclivities.
  • Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez has continued to get opportunities based on his mid-90s velocity and decent ability to miss bats. Home runs have been a constant issue, however, and he’s battled plenty of command inconsistency. He worked in a swing role with the White Sox this year and put up a 4.78 ERA across 75 1/3 innings.
  • T.J. Zeuch (27): A former first-round pick of the Blue Jays, Zeuch has seen brief MLB action in four seasons. He was hit hard in three starts with the Reds in 2022.

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

  • Nick Martinez (32), can opt of final three years and $19.5MM on contract with Padres, $1.5MM buyout

Martinez has worked in a swing role during his first season with the Padres. After starting 10 of his first 12 outings, he moved full-time to the bullpen in June. He didn’t miss many bats in either role but he showed much stronger control as a reliever and posted a 2.67 ERA over 54 innings out of the bullpen. He’d reportedly prefer another chance as a starter, which could lean him towards triggering his opt-out. Martinez has yet to establish himself in an MLB rotation, but he was excellent over three years in the rotation in NPB and showed the ability to handle MLB bats in relief this year.

The hefty buyout figure on Odorizzi’s option means he’d only need to top $6.25MM in free agency to make testing the market a reasonable decision. Even still, he may elect to stick with the Braves after a rough second half. Acquired at the trade deadline, the veteran right-hander posted a 5.24 ERA over 10 starts in Atlanta. He was more effective in Houston but no longer misses bats as he did a few seasons ago.

  • James Paxton (34), will hold $4MM player option once Red Sox decline two-year, $26MM club option

Paxton signed a complex deal with Boston to finish off his rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He didn’t wind up pitching in 2022, as he suffered a lat tear while rehabbing. There’s no way the Red Sox guarantee him $26MM, so Paxton will be left to decide whether to return to Boston on a $4MM salary or set out to free agency in search of an incentive-laden deal with a bit more earning power.

The durability issues that plagued Walker in his mid-20s have largely been put in the past. He’s made 69 starts and pitched 369 2/3 frames over the past three seasons, recording a 3.80 ERA along the way. This year’s 20.3% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 6.9% walk rate is Walker’s best since 2016. The right-hander doesn’t do any one thing especially well but also doesn’t have a glaring weakness. Walker is a slam-dunk to turn down this modestly priced option and find a multi-year deal in free agency, assuming the Mets don’t make him a qualifying offer.

Players With Club Options

  • Dylan Bundy (30), Twins hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

Bundy signed a one-year guarantee with Minnesota last offseason. The Twins’ hopes at a bounceback season didn’t pan out, as he averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball for the first time in his career and put up a 4.89 ERA over 140 innings. He’ll be bought out.

Carrasco went from the Indians to the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster over the 2020-21 offseason. His first year in Queens was tarnished by injury, but he returned to make 29 starts this past season. Over 152 innings, Carrasco posted a 3.97 ERA with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It looks like he’s done enough to earn the Mets picking up his option, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Carrasco’s injury history could give the team pause.

Duffy signed with the Dodgers last offseason while rehabbing from a flexor strain that required surgery. He had a setback this summer and didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2022. He’ll be bought out and might be limited to minor league offers this time around.

Gray’s option is a no-brainer for the Twins. He battled some injuries during his first season in Minnesota but put up a 3.08 ERA in 119 2/3 innings when healthy. He’ll be back in the middle of the Twins starting staff next year.

  • Jordan Lyles (32), Orioles hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

The O’s are faced with a tough decision on Lyles, whom they signed to a one-year guarantee last winter. The veteran righty ate innings as the club had hoped and put up a 4.42 ERA that was his lowest mark in three seasons. Even that was still a fair bit worse than average, however, as were his strikeout and ground-ball numbers. He’s a stable back-end starter who reportedly served as a strong veteran leader in the O’s clubhouse.

  • Aaron Nola (30), Phillies hold $16MM option with $4.25MM buyout

There’s no chance Nola hits free agency. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and the Phillies won’t have any easier decisions this offseason than to exercise his option.

  • Luis Severino (29), Yankees hold $15MM club option with $2.75MM buyout

The Yankees are sure to retain Severino, who came back from a trio of injury-diminished seasons to post a 3.18 ERA over 102 innings. He again missed a couple months with a lat strain, but the right-hander showed his old velocity and upper mid-rotation form when healthy.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter

Big Hype Prospects: Merrill, Marte, Davis, Yorke, Winn

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. A general note before we dive in – I’m relaxing the definition of “big” so we can continue to cover different active players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have been in place for six years now. The team has a winning record under their leadership, but the last two seasons have ended in disappointment, with the Twins missing the postseason by a wide margin despite heading into the year as projected contenders. They’ll enter the offseason with a large amount of payroll space, though that’s due partly to last winter’s marquee signing opting out of his contract.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Byron Buxton, OF: $90MM through 2028 ($15MM base salary can increase to $23MM annually based on MVP voting)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $9.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2024)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B: $8.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2024; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2025)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $7.75MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026; contract also contains $7MM club option for 2026, $8.5MM club option for 2027)*
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $3.125MM through 2023 (can earn up to $10MM of incentives based on games started, innings pitched)

*=Dobnak is in the organization but no longer on the 40-man roster

Total 2023 commitment: $35.625MM
Total long-term outlay: $118.875MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Twins’ first order of business will be determining whether they have a legitimate chance to retain Carlos Correa, who’s already said he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract. The only long-term commitment of note on the books is Byron Buxton’s $15MM annual salary through the 2028 season, leaving plenty of room for the Twins to put forth a market-value offer with what would be the first $30MM+ annual salary in club history.

The question, of course, is whether the front office feels it’s wise to do so and whether owner Jim Pohlad will green-light that franchise-record expenditure. For his part, Correa has effused praise for the Twins since day one. He’s since said on record multiple times that his family enjoys living there and that he personally “loves” manager Rocco Baldelli and the clubhouse environment.

Pleasantries are all well and good this time of year, but Correa has also made clear that he’s seeking a long-term deal and will again become a free agent if the two parties cannot agree to an extension. Falvey has said on record that the Twins have talked contract with agent Scott Boras since the season ended, also expressing a willingness to “get creative” on a deal. Cynics would suggest that’s corporate-speak implying the Twins aren’t prepared to offer a straightforward long-term pact, but it was a somewhat “creative” offer that brought Correa to Minneapolis in the first place. He still seems likely to test the market, but the Twins have another couple weeks to convince him to stay.

If Correa indeed opts out and signs elsewhere, the Twins will be left with a hole at shortstop but also a heaping amount of payroll space. All four of their club option decisions are easy to decipher. Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer will be bought out, and all are likely to sign elsewhere. Sonny Gray’s $12.5MM club option is a no-brainer to exercise. In a scenario where Correa departs and Gray is picked up, the Twins will have around $50MM committed to next year’s books.

There are arbitration-eligible players to consider, but that’ll only add another $30MM or so to the ledger. The Twins opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the neighborhood of $142MM, but even with Gray returning and only a handful of non-tenders, they’ll clock in around $80-82MM in commitments. Even if 2022’s Opening Day mark is set as a firm ceiling — which it likely is not — the front office has a lot of financial freedom this winter.

Where can the Twins reallocate those resources? Frankly, just about anywhere. The lineup has few guarantees, though that’s generally due to flexibility afforded by key young players.

Luis Arraez spent a large chunk of time at first base this season and won a batting title in the process, but he can play second base, third base and even some left field if needed. Rookie Jose Miranda also spent time at first base, but he rose through the system as a third baseman and could man the hot corner if the Twins prefer to trade Gio Urshela and go with Miranda/Arraez at the corners. Doing so could bring back some bullpen help or a decent minor league asset and free up another $9MM or so.

If Correa doesn’t return, the Twins can turn shortstop over to former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, though he’s rehabbing a second tear of his right ACL and thus shouldn’t be considered a lock to handle shortstop from the jump (if at all). Lewis is another candidate to play multiple positions at some point and could do so as soon as next year, depending on which course the Twins chart.

If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay top-of-the-market money for the marquee shortstop they already know and love, Correa, it stands to reason that fellow free agent Trea Turner will be out of their comfort zone. But both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will be free agents this winter, and while both figure to command nine-figure contracts, they’ll likely be less expensive than Turner and Correa. Barring another splash in the deep end of the free-agent pool, the Twins could look to a shorter-term veteran like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias to help ease Lewis into a larger role.

There’s similar flexibility and uncertainty in the outfield. Byron Buxton remains one of the most talented players in MLB on a per-game basis but also one of the most oft-injured. He hit 28 homers in just 92 games but missed time with a hip strain before undergoing season-ending knee surgery in September. Max Kepler has been a stalwart in right field, and his pull-happy approach could make him a beneficiary of the forthcoming limitations on infield shifts. However, Kepler has never replicated the fly-ball rates (and subsequent power output) he showed in the juiced-ball 2019 season that saw him club 36 home runs. With just one guaranteed year to go on his contract (plus an option), he could be a trade candidate as the Twins look to open space for younger players.

Among those younger options are snakebitten corner outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Both are former first-rounders and consensus top-50 prospects in the league, but both have seen their early careers waylaid by injury. Kirilloff, who’s twice undergone wrist surgery, was particularly touted. That duo can play the corners, and Kirilloff has plenty of experience at first base as well, further adding to the aforementioned infield flexibility. Twin Cities native and former No. 39 overall draft pick Matt Wallner is another right field option who made his big league debut in 2022 and could factor into next year’s group.

If the Twins do trade Kepler, there’s an argument that they ought to bring in a different veteran to stabilize/complement the in-house group — ideally a right-handed hitter. The most wide-eyed dreamers among Twins fans can point to the payroll space and last March’s stunning Correa deal as justification for an “anything is possible” mentality, but Aaron Judge is scarcely worth a mention here. Still, a short-term veteran could at least be in play as an occasional left fielder and designated hitter, depending on what happens with Kepler.

Behind the plate, the Twins remain high on Ryan Jeffers’ receiving and his power, but Falvey has specifically talked about bringing in another backstop to again utilize a “co-catcher” method that divides playing time more evenly than the traditional starter/backup pairing. As Falvey plainly noted, Jeffers was particularly adept against left-handed pitching.

The Twins haven’t labeled the still-25-year-old Jeffers a pure platoon option, but they’ll want someone who can help out against right-handed pitching. This year’s free-agent class isn’t a great one in that regard, though Omar Narvaez has a nice track record against righties despite a down showing in 2022. Willson Contreras, the market’s top catcher, would bolster the offense against righties and lefties alike, and the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to make them a dark-horse landing spot. The trade market will have options ranging from clear starters (Oakland’s Sean Murphy, Toronto’s Danny Jansen) to out-of-options fliers (the Angels’ Matt Thaiss).

The depth on the pitching staff is more suspect. Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. Some of that was by design, at least early on. For instance, Minnesota inked Chris Archer to an incentive-laden deal that allowed him to boost his salary based on games started and outings of three or more innings in length. The plan was to ease him into the year with short outings and build him up, but Archer never built up to the workload the team envisioned. Rotation-mate and fellow offseason signee Dylan Bundy had averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start from 2019-21 and averaged under five innings per start with the Twins in ’22. He likely was never viewed as a potential workhorse.

That approach placed undue stress on a bullpen that, beyond breakout arms Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, had few alternatives for much of the season. The Twins swung what looked like one of the better deals of the deadline, bringing in All-Star reliever Jorge Lopez from the Orioles, but Lopez struggled greatly with his command following the swap and wasn’t able to replicate his Baltimore form.

We don’t need a full breakdown of what went wrong for the Twins’ staff for the purposes of outlining the forthcoming offseason. The end-of-season results — 20th in rotation ERA/27th in innings; 15th in bullpen ERA/third in innings — are telling. For the Twins to remedy things in 2022, they’ll need more innings and more quality from the rotation and/or a deeper and more talented bullpen to help offset the lack of innings from the starting staff.

Returning to the 2022 rotation will be the aforementioned Gray and right-hander Joe Ryan, who dubiously led Twins pitchers with 147 innings. Both were strong mid-rotation arms, though Gray was hampered by hamstring injuries that limited him to 119 2/3 innings. Kenta Maeda will also be healed from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota will hope for better health from deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle, for whom they surrendered three prospects in a deal with the Reds.

Mahle, like Gray, was an above-average starter with the Reds prior to his acquisition and was particularly effective away from the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He hit the injured list with a “minor” shoulder strain in July, returned to make two solid outings prior to the deadline, and landed in Minnesota as a hopeful rotation boost down the stretch. Instead, he twice went back on the injured list with shoulder troubles and made only four total starts as a Twin. Falvey has said since the season ended that Mahle “has been evaluated beyond the traditional MRI” and that the team believes the strain led to some weakness in Mahle’s rotator cuff. The expectation is that he’ll be healthy in 2023.

A healthy quartet of Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Maeda would be a solid start to any staff, and the Twins have some in-house options to join them. Righties Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson have all pitched in the Majors — Ober extensively so, dating back to a quietly solid rookie effort in 2021. Winder missed time in 2022 due to shoulder troubles but was a top-100 prospect prior to this year’s debut and at times looked quite impressive. Woods Richardson had a promising year in the upper minors and made his MLB debut in the season’s final week. Top prospect Jordan Balazovic had a lost season, spending a month on the shelf with a knee strain and struggling for the majority of the Triple-A campaign thereafter.

Twins fans will call for the team to pursue a front-line starter, but the reality is that consecutive poor finishes makes that a far more difficult task. Veterans Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom will likely prioritize signing with more clearly defined contenders. Lefty Carlos Rodon would be a more feasible target if the Twins are willing to dole out their first nine-figure pitching contract in franchise history, but he should clear the Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) contracts — perhaps by a wide margin.

Right-hander Kodai Senga, ace of Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, will pursue MLB opportunities this offseason, too, but the competition for him will be fierce. The market does feature a number of solid second-tier options, with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard and Tyler Anderson among them.

In the bullpen, the Twins will hope Duran, Lopez and Jax can pair with lefties Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran to anchor the late innings. Hard-throwing righty Jorge Alcala missed nearly the whole season with an elbow issue but is expected back in ’23. It’s a talented group that looks far better than the unit they had early in 2022, but after generally eschewing veteran additions a year ago (save for a one-year flier on Joe Smith, who was released over the summer), the Twins should place more of an emphasis on adding stability. Minnesota’s lack of depth was exposed in 2022 when Tyler Duffey declined and trade pickup Emilio Pagan regularly proved unreliable, despite persistent opportunities (due largely to said lack of depth). The latter now seems likely to be traded or non-tendered following a disastrous year.

The only multi-year free agent deal the current front office has given to a reliever is Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal, and that was six years ago. In fact, as far as I can tell, that’s the only multi-year deal given to a free-agent reliever by the Twins since the turn of the century (though they’ve extended in-house star closers like Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins).

In other words, don’t expect this team to break the bank for Edwin Diaz. If the Twins want to break that multi-year trend, the top names with a chance at three- and two-year deals include Robert Suarez, Kenley Jansen and (more quietly) Rafael Montero. More realistically, the Twins will bide their time and wait out the market for relievers open to one-year deals. That strategy has backfired recently (Smith, Alex Colome) but paid off at times in the past (Tyler Clippard).

Few teams in baseball have as much money coming off the books as the Twins this winter, and they could further add to that stockpile of resources by trading a veteran they feel they can replace internally (e.g. Kepler, Urshela). That should give the Twins the financial latitude to pursue just about any endeavor they choose, and at least as far as the lineup goes, they’re deep in young options.

This version of the Minnesota front office has typically eschewed long-term commitments in free agency, with Josh Donaldson’s four-year deal marking the only time they’ve signed a free agent for more than three years. Given the clean payroll outlook, a strong free-agent class and mounting pressure to return to contention in the AL Central, it’s arguable that this offseason is the time to deviate from that risk-averse approach.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays returned to the postseason, yet were eliminated after a devastating collapse in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.  Toronto may now face some tough decisions in how to best take the next step forward as a contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Obligations

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

By the numbers, Toronto had one of the league’s best offenses, though the lineup was also prone to lengthy and almost team-wide cold streaks.  While any team would be challenged by an in-form Luis Castillo, the Jays’ offensive inconsistency surfaced in Game 1 when they scattered only seven hits in a 4-0 shutout loss.  In Game 2, an 8-1 lead after five innings seemed safe in the hands of a bullpen that had been pretty solid all season.  However, “pretty solid” wasn’t good enough, as the Mariners roared back from the 8-1 deficit and then a 9-5 deficit to secure the 10-9 victory.

While two playoff games don’t erase the 92 wins of the regular season, the specific nature of the two WCS losses underlined weaknesses that lingered all year.  And, with only a 35-39 mark against teams with a winning record, the Jays had a tendency to come up short against tougher competition during the regular season as well.

Some of those issues were solved when Charlie Montoyo was fired as the team’s manager on July 13, as the Blue Jays played better under interim manager John Schneider (46-28) than under Montoyo (46-42).  This was enough to earn Schneider a three-year contract as the team’s proper manager, and now Schneider, GM Ross Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and the rest of the Jays brain trust has to identify and patch up these flaws in the would-be strengths of the lineup and bullpen.

In addition, there’s also the more immediate issue of a short-handed pitching staff.  Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah form a strong 1-2 punch atop the rotation, but then the questions start.  Jose Berrios was very inconsistent in posting a 5.23 ERA (but also a more respectable 4.13 SIERA) over 172 innings, and since the righty is already locked up to a pricey extension signed last winter, the Jays can only hope that Berrios can get on track going forward.  Yusei Kikuchi pitched so poorly that he lost his rotation spot, Mitch White wasn’t much better as Kikuchi’s replacement, and Hyun-Jin Ryu will be a later-season addition, at best, after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June.

There also isn’t any obvious and immediate help on the farm, given such uninspiring depth options as Casey Lawrence, Thomas Hatch, or Bowden Francis.  Former top prospect Nate Pearson had another injury-plagued season and now looks ticketed for a multi-inning relief role rather than starting work.  Current top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann has plenty of promise but only had a handful of Double-A outings, while Yosver Zulueta made it to Triple-A yet is still battling significant control issues.  These promising youngsters may indeed play a role for the 2023 Jays, but not by Opening Day.

With all of this rotation turmoil, Ross Stripling was one of the team’s unsung heroes of 2022.  After Ryu was injured, Stripling moved into the rotation for good, and he finished the season with a 3.01 ERA and an elite 3.7% walk rate over 134 1/3 innings.  This excellent control helped Stripling offset a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate, and Stripling also got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .269 BABIP.

Stripling is now a free agent and will be looking for his first multi-year payday as he enters his age-33 season.  Though he has worked mostly as a swingman throughout his career and his overall results as a starter are somewhat hit-or-miss, Stripling’s success in 2022 and the league-wide need for pitching will earn him a good contract on the open market.

While Stripling’s price tag won’t be excessive, re-signing the right-hander might require the Blue Jays to outbid several other teams, and to make another notable investment in their pitching staff.  It doesn’t help that Ryu ($20MM), Kikuchi ($10MM) and even Berrios ($15MM) are taking up such a sizeable chunk of the payroll, even though the Jays don’t know what they’ll really be getting from any of the trio in 2023.

If not Stripling, at least one more starter will have to be acquired, and perhaps two if the Blue Jays don’t want to risk giving a rotation spot to either of Kikuchi or White on a full-time basis.  The Jays have had some notable successes (e.g. Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Stripling) in acquiring starters during Atkins’ tenure, but with just as many misfires (Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Kikuchi through one year), there is certainly risk involved in targeting another rebound candidate.  But, given the money already committed to the rotation, shopping at the top of the market doesn’t seem likely.

Or, does it?  The Jays have greatly increased their payroll as the team has become more competitive over the last two seasons, with a club record of roughly $171MM committed to the Opening Day roster.  That record is already on its way to being broken in 2023, as projections from Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts set the Jays’ payroll at around $192MM, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of approximately $217MM — within striking distance of the $232MM tax threshold.

That payroll number will likely drop at least a little due to some non-tender decisions.  (Raimel Tapia, for instance, generated only 0.2 fWAR last season, so his $5.2MM projected arbitration salary is steep.)  Since the Blue Jays have never really been close to the tax threshold before, it remains to be seen if ownership considers the CBT as an upper limit on payroll, or if they would be willing to spend beyond the threshold in the right circumstance.

Justin Verlander gave serious consideration to signing with Toronto last winter.  Now that the ace is certain to test free agency again, would the Jays realistically be able to offer the type of deal (maybe a $40MM average annual value) it could take to pry Verlander away from the Astros or other suitors?  If not Verlander, perhaps another top-of-the-rotation arm like Carlos Rodon could be feasible.

Moving away from the pitching side, could the Jays even get involved in the shortstop market?  Given how public defensive metrics painted a grim picture of Bo Bichette’s glovework in 2022, the Blue Jays could shake up their lineup by moving Bichette to second base and signing one of Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, or longtime AL East foe Xander Bogaerts.

Since we don’t know how far ownership is willing to go with payroll, it may be prudent to not count on too many splashy signings.  Also, it is possible the Jays might need some future payroll space earmarked for possible extensions for Manoah, Bichette, and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  If big free-agent moves might not be in the cards, the trade market could be the answer to the Blue Jays’ issues.

The farm system has lost some depth due to past trades, and Toronto will likely be hesitant to further deplete its prospect stock in any meaningful way (i.e., the likes of Tiedemann probably won’t be available).  While Atkins has downplayed the idea of moving a player from the current core, that might be the most realistic way for the Blue Jays to make an impactful addition to the rotation, bullpen, or perhaps at another position in the lineup.

Between Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and star prospect Gabriel Moreno, the Blue Jays have perhaps the most catching depth of any team in baseball.  This trio became even more valuable in 2022, after Kirk reached the All-Star team, Jansen posted an .855 OPS and 15 home runs over 248 plate appearances, and Moreno looked solid in his first 25 games in the big leagues.  Moreno’s potential as a multi-position player could mean that the Jays don’t need to make a decision on their catching corps just yet, but trading a catcher has long seemed like Toronto’s most logical route to landing a big trade target.

Any number of clubs could use reliable catching help, but the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Marlins stand out as teams who both need catching, and who have been frequent trade partners with Toronto in recent years.  It seems less likely that Moreno would be the one dealt, since clubs rarely move prospects of his pedigree.  But, moving Kirk or Jansen could land the Blue Jays a controllable starting pitcher, or an everyday second baseman, or perhaps an outfielder to play center field or one of the corners.

As for the players already in those positions, some plausible trade chips could be placed on the table.  Both Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be free agents after the 2023 season, and the Jays may need to open up a corner outfield spot sooner rather than later for Springer, for both health and defensive reasons.  Springer is probably still the best bet up the middle for 2023, though Whit Merrifield might get some time in center field as part of a super-sub role, or one of Jackie Bradley Jr. or Bradley Zimmer could be brought back as defensive depth.

If the Blue Jays do need to create some room in the budget for other additions, Hernandez’s projected $14.1MM arb salary could increase his chances of being traded.  On the other hand, Hernandez has a lot more power and general consistency than Gurriel, so Hernandez might be the preferred option for a Jays team trying to win in 2023.  Whatever a decision could be, it doesn’t seem like both Gurriel and Hernandez (or maybe even either) will receive contract extensions, especially not if the Jays are also trying to lock up Guerrero and company.  If one or both of these outfielders aren’t in Toronto’s long-term plans, a trade this offseason might be the best answer.

The Jays might also look into dealing from their second base mix of Merrifield, Santiago Espinal, and Cavan Biggio, if they plan to deploy Merrifield in more of an everyday role.  The 2022 campaign was the worst statistical season of Merrifield’s career, though he hit significantly better after the Blue Jays acquired him from the Royals.  Depending on how much Toronto intends to use Merrifield in the outfield as well as second base, the Jays could dangle Espinal or Biggio in trade talks, and give rookie Otto Lopez a longer look in the infield picture.

As noted, Toronto’s lineup was quite potent last season, so there is a limit to how much of a shake-up the front office needs (or wants) to make.  But, moving at least one regular create rooms for the Jays to diversify their lineup, whether that’s adding speed, more athleticism, or one or two left-handed everyday bats to a very right-handed batting order.  The 2022 Jays had a regular lineup that was almost entirely right-handed and a bench that was almost entirely left-handed, with lefty swingers like Tapia, Biggio, Bradley, and Zimmer providing subpar offense.

The bullpen also tilted to the right-hand side, as Tim Mayza was the only southpaw who received significant innings last year.  Adding another reliable left-hander is one obvious need, and Atkins has noted that the Jays will also look to add another power arm to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts.  Anthony Bass and David Phelps both pitched well last year, so the Blue Jays are likely to exercise their club option on Bass and at least look into re-signing Phelps in free agency.

The front office hasn’t traditionally invested big dollars into the relief market, though they have been aggressive in adding new arms via multiple trades over the last few seasons.  It’s probably safe to expect that same strategy this winter, though the Jays will have more difficulty in picking and choosing which relievers to keep from what was (the playoff meltdown notwithstanding) a decent bullpen.

While just getting back to the postseason was no small feat in the wake of the Jays’ near-miss in 2021, their playoff trips in both 2020 and 2022 have yet to yield a single win, let alone a series victory.  The 2022 campaign revealed that the Blue Jays have to find ways to improve — both to just keep up with the ever-competitive AL East, and to establish themselves as a true threat in October.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers have often been competitive without being big spenders. They fell off of that fine line in 2022, trading away their closer and stumbling out of the postseason picture down the stretch. Unless there’s a payroll boost coming, some more tough financial decisions might be over the horizon.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $162.5MM through 2028 (including $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $18.5MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout of 2028 club option)
  • Freddy Peralta, RHP: $10.5MM through 2024 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)

Total 2023 commitments: $30.5MM
Total future commitments: $191.5MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

For much of 2022, it seemed that the Brewers were cruising to a fifth straight postseason appearance. As July was winding down and the trade deadline was drawing near, they were sitting atop the NL Central, four games clear of the Cardinals. A team in that position would normally lean into the “buyer” category, but Milwaukee tried to have it both ways. They traded their star closer Josh Hader, and his increasingly-expensive salary, to the Padres. They added some young players to their farm system and surely hoped that the bullpen would be fine without him, with the plan being that Devin Williams would step into the closer’s role, supported by deadline acquisitions Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal.

Unfortunately, rumors quickly began swirling that the move had a deleterious effect on the morale in the clubhouse. While that can’t be definitively quantified, what is certainly true is that the move didn’t pan out on the field. Rogers and Bush both struggled after the move while an injury kept Rosenthal from ever joining the club. The Brewers went 29-31 from the start of August until the end of the schedule, yielding the Central to the Cardinals and finishing one game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot.

President of baseball operations David Stearns is under contract for 2023, though there was reportedly some type of opt-out in his contract that could have allowed him to pursue other opportunities. It was unclear if the Brewers had to reach the NLCS or the World Series to put him in position to trigger that opt-out, although it’s now a moot point since the club missed the playoffs entirely. Stearns is a New York native and has been frequently mentioned in rumors connecting him to the Mets, but the Brewers have denied him the opportunity to explore jobs with other organizations. It seems that he will be staying in Milwaukee for at least one more season.

It doesn’t seem like it will be an easy offseason for him to navigate, as the Hader trade didn’t solve the payroll situation for the Brewers. Never huge spenders, the club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That represented a franchise record but was still in the bottom half of the league, coming in 19th out of the 30 MLB teams. For 2023, Roster Resource estimates they’re already pretty close to that number, currently pegged at $118MM. They have a huge 18-player arbitration class and could improve their financial situation with a few non-tenders, though that would also create more holes on a roster that already proved insufficient. Next year, the more balanced schedule means they will have fewer games within their weak division, which will only increase the challenge of competing in 2023. Unless another bump is coming for the budget, it’s possible Stearns will have to continue walking fine lines.

The starting rotation is currently in a strong position, as the club has six starters with varying levels of strength. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are clearly at the front end, with both showing ace potential at times. Freddy Peralta has some durability concerns but has shown himself capable of being almost as good as Burnes and Woodruff when healthy. That’s an extremely good front three, and it’s bolstered by Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby and Adrian Houser as serviceable back-end guys. However, all six of them are in line for raises in 2023. Peralta’s extension will lead to his salary going from $2.25MM up to $3.5MM next year, while Ashby’s will go from $700K to $1MM as part of his own extension. The other four starters will all be eligible for raises via arbitration. Back in September, Burnes discussed his status with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, very much aware of the fact he’s a candidate to follow the same path as Hader. It might be difficult for the Brewers to consider trading another star hurler after the Hader deal went so poorly, but taking that off the table will likely lead to difficult decisions elsewhere.

The bullpen is probably the least-impressive it’s been in some time, now that Hader is no longer atop the chart. However, Devin Williams still gives them an excellent starting point. He’s now thrown 155 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 2.03 ERA, 48.8% ground ball rate and 39.5% strikeout rate. His 11.5% walk rate is certainly on the high side, though he’s still been very effective. He racked up 26 holds and 15 saves in 2022 and seems ticketed for permanent closer duties going forward. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter but should still be well worth the salary bump.

The rest of the bullpen is a bit more murky. Rosenthal and Rogers are free agents. Matt Bush struggled after the trade but still finished the season with a 3.47 ERA on the season as a whole. He’ll be due a raise via arbitration but not a huge one. Brad Boxberger had another strong season for Milwaukee and can be retained via a $3MM club option. That might seem to be a fairly easy trigger at first glance, but his strikeout rate took a downturn this year and he’s turning 35 in May. Is the payroll tight enough for the Brewers to simply walk away and dedicate those resources elsewhere? Peter Strzelecki had a nice debut and hasn’t yet reached arbitration. However, pitchers like Trevor Gott, Luis Perdomo, Jandel Gustave and Brent Suter are all part of that huge arbitration class and none of them were outstanding in 2022. A few non-tenders would save the club a few bucks but would also weaken the overall depth. Either way, they will probably look to find some low-cost additions, either through free agency or waiver claims.

Behind the plate, the Brewers are facing the departure of Omar Narváez. His bat took a step back in 2022 but he still provided value with his glove. Without him, the primary catcher is Victor Caratini, who was having a strong season but finished quite poorly. Through the end of July, he was hitting .231/.355/.413 for a wRC+ of 121, but then slashed just .163/.234/.264 the rest of the way for a wRC+ of 39. Adding another backstop would make some sense, but they could also start the year with Alex Jackson and Mario Feliciano battling Caratini for playing time if the budget is tight.

Rowdy Tellez should have first base spoken for after a solid season at the plate. He hit 35 home runs and produced a batting line of .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. However, it’s possible the club will consider trading Tellez and giving first base to Keston Hiura, a possibility recently explored by MLBTR’s Maury Ahram. Hiura struck out in 41.7% of his plate appearances but still hit 14 home runs in 80 games and produced a 115 wRC+. He can play other positions at times but doesn’t get great marks for his work at second base or in left field. A trade could clear up some money but it also wouldn’t break the bank to keep Tellez and Hiura in some sort of platoon rotation.

Up the middle, Willy Adames has shortstop locked down but second base is a little less clear. The club has a $10MM club option over Kolten Wong’s services for 2023, which comes with a $2MM buyout. That net $8MM decision would normally be a very clear decision, with exercising it the obvious choice. However, given the potential payroll constraints and Wong’s unusually weak defensive year, it’s possible that the Brewers look to move on. Wong himself seemed to acknowledge all of this recently, realizing that it’s possible that he is replaced by prospect Brice Turang, who had a nice year in Triple-A. There’s also a couple of utility guys present, with Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau on the roster. They’re both coming off solid seasons, though at least one of them will likely need to cover third base due to the free agency of Jace Peterson. Though Peterson has never been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+, except in the shortened 2020 campaign, he got excellent marks for his work at the hot corner this year while also occasionally moving to first base, second base and the outfield corners.

In the outfield, Christian Yelich will continue manning one spot. He’s not quite living up to his salary, as he’s getting paid to be the MVP-level player he was in 2018 and 2019. He’s fallen short of that in each of the past three seasons but has still been a solid above-average regular. Hunter Renfroe could be in another corner, though he also could be a non-tender candidate based on his one-dimensional output. He hit 29 home runs in 2022 but was below-average at drawing walks and isn’t especially strong on defense. He’s certainly still a valuable player, but with a projected salary of $11.2MM, the Brewers could look to trade him and find a comparable player for less money on the free agent market.

In center field, 2023 will be the first full season of the post-Lorenzo Cain era. Jackson Chourio is considered by many to be one of the best prospects in the sport and the center fielder of the future in Milwaukee. However, he’s not yet reached his 19th birthday and will surely need some more time. Rookie Garrett Mitchell got some big league playing time down the stretch and fared well, though in a small sample of just 28 games. Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer each finished strong in Triple-A and could be ready for a jump to the majors quite soon. Esteury Ruiz, acquired from the Padres in the Hader deal, has already gotten a taste of the majors. However, the Brewers played him in left field more than center after trading for him.

The Brewers have some interesting decisions ahead of them this winter, as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign. They have some question marks in the outfield, especially if they let Renfroe go. They have some holes on the infield, especially if they don’t retain Wong. The bullpen certainly has room for some upgrades, as does their catching corps. To address those areas, there might not be a ton of money to work with, meaning it could be one more year on the tightrope.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Brewers-centric chat on 10-26-22. Click here to read the transcript.

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