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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres keep trying to find the perfect roster mix to supplement their rising young talent.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

As usual, the Padres engaged in quite a lot of eyebrow-raising chatter this winter. There was talk at various points that the club was chasing trades involving Mookie Betts (see here), Kris Bryant (see here), Francisco Lindor (see here), Nick Senzel (same link), and Starling Marte (see here). In free agency, the Friars looked at veteran southpaws Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel … and also considered another in David Price as part of various trade scenarios.

There’s no new star in San Diego, but that probably wasn’t necessary for an organization that last year welcomed Manny Machado and oversaw the emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack. It might have been nice to announce a new, long-term pact with Tatis. The San Diego organization built up some good will by promoting him to start the 2019 season — that’ll also ensure a full season of 2020 service even if the campaign isn’t played — but couldn’t make apparent headway in talks this winter.

While committing distant future money to a franchise star would’ve been possible, the Friars didn’t have much near-term payroll space to work with. The Padres tried but failed to deal Wil Myers to achieve greater flexibility, so for now they’re left saddled with the remaining three years and $61MM on his heavily back-loaded contract. After a bunch of non-tender decisions and some mostly modest salary additions, the team is sitting at about $144MM in cash payroll for 2020.

So, what did Padres GM A.J. Preller accomplish in his sixth offseason at the helm of baseball operations? Much of the work was in a set of four interesting swaps with three value-focused trade partners.

Most of all, Preller swung an outfield overhaul. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham each came over as part of multi-player trades that defy characterization as “buy” or “sell”-side transactions for either the Padres or their respective trade partners in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee.

Pham is only controlled for two more seasons, but he could contribute a ton of excess value if he keeps hitting. He’ll replace Hunter Renfroe, one of the players for whom he was traded. Grisham brings a lot more long-term control and some real promise but isn’t nearly as established. He’ll slot into the mix at all three outfield spots, perhaps pairing with minor-league signee Juan Lagares to handle much of the work in center. Otherwise, the Friars will shrug and hope for the best from Myers and oft-injured youngster Francy Cordero. Another young left-handed slugger, Josh Naylor, could also factor into the mix. With a strong showing in the upper minors (if a season is played there), well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell could force his way into the picture at some point.

As is the case for much of the rest of the San Diego roster, it’s possible to imagine the outfield unit playing at quite a high level … or being rather a marginal outfit. There’s decidedly more star power in the infield, though perhaps the outlook comes with the same sort of qualifications.

Barring injury, the left side of the infield will be occupied almost exclusively by aforementioned wunderkind Tatis and top-dollar star Machado. Greg Garcia is the primary reserve/fill-in option, with Ty France and newcomer Jake Cronenworth also on the 40-man. Francisco Mejia and Austin Hedges remain entrenched behind the dish, with hopes one or both will make strides in 2020. At first base, the Pads may ultimately have to decide whether to reduce the time of the disappointing Eric Hosmer. It’s arguable that the best alignment would involve a time share between Hosmer and Myers, however hard that would be to swallow given each former Royal’s weighty contract.

Ian Kinsler’s decision to elect retirement after a tough 2019 showing unexpectedly cleared some salary and seemed to pave a path to regular at-bats for top prospect Luis Urias — but the club obviously didn’t fully believe in him as a replacement. He ended up departing in the Grisham swap. The Padres gave up a bit of young talent to take over the final season of arbitration eligibility of Jurickson Profar, a formerly elite prospect (from back when he and Preller were with the Rangers organization) who was a mostly uninspiring performer in 2019. He’ll battle at second base with minor-league signee Brian Dozier. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that situation ultimately end up in a timeshare (with Garcia, France, and/or Cronenworth potentially involved).

Those aforementioned outfield moves spelled the end of the line for Manuel Margot in San Diego. He ended up being shipped out along with 2019 second-rounder Logan Driscoll in order to acquire reliever Emilio Pagan. The late-blooming Pagan brings highly appealing K/BB numbers and a big swinging-strike rate out west, but it seems rather curious that he will now be on his fourth MLB team in four seasons. Pagan carried an unsustainable strand rate (94.8%) to reach a 2.31 ERA last year and has been rather prone to the long ball (1.58 per nine for his career).

The Padres have visions of Pagan joining closer Kirby Yates to form a powerful combination of late-inning righties. Completing the high-leverage mix is southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who rode his second-half surge to a much bigger-than-expected contract and a surprising return to San Diego. The 31-year-old was flat-out dominant down the stretch, but it was still stunning to see the Friars go to a four-year guarantee to lure him. Further bullpen-building came in the form of more modest two-year pacts to bring back Craig Stammen and add interesting NPB returnee Pierce Johnson, who whiffed 91 hitters through 58 2/3 innings en route to a 1.38 ERA with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan last season.

The depth seems like it’ll be necessary. Young hurlers Andres Munoz and Reggie Lawson were each lost to Tommy John surgery in camp. The Padres can still turn to a host of other young arms, but most come with questions. Southpaw Matt Strahm (who has much better career numbers as a reliever) and converted infielder Javy Guerra seem likely to join the ’pen once the season begins. Luis Perdomo, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Ronald Bolanos, David Bednar, Jose Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Gerardo Reyes and sixth starter Cal Quantrill are all 40-man options as well — some with real upside — but you’d have a hard time arguing any as sure things.

That leaves a rotation mix that mostly went untouched over the winter. The Friars did bring in Zach Davies while parting with Eric Lauer as the other half of the Grisham/Urias swap. It’s too much to expect a repeat of his 2019 showing (31 starts of 3.55 ERA ball), but Davies should be a solid part of the staff. The same holds true of Joey Lucchesi, who returns along with the upside-laden trio of Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet to form quite an interesting rotation mix. It would be even more exciting to see this group in a full season, when it could be supplemented by top prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino, but that’s all coming soon enough.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s awfully tough to look at this roster and see a threat to the powerhouse Dodgers. But all bets are off in a short-season format, which is likely all we’ll get if the 2020 season is played at all. And there’s reason for the Padres to hope they’ve done enough at least to compete for a Wild Card spot, though it’s a crowded NL field and it’ll be tough to make mid-season improvements given the (seeming) lack of payroll breathing room.

How would MLBTR fans grade the Padres’ offseason dealings? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

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Considering the circumstances, we figure to be in for an unusual free agency period in Major League Baseball next offseason. We’ve already run down the most notable catchers, shortstops, and first basemen who are slated to reach the open market once the winter rolls around in several months. We’ll do the same here with second basemen (players’ listed ages are for the 2021 campaign) …

Top Of The Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): Some felt the Yankees made a really nice value move when they inked DJLM, but nobody predicted a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP voting. It remains to be seen whether LeMahieu can repeat anything like his whopping 2019 output at the plate, but he has long been a high-end defender.
  • Jonathan Villar (30): Another player with a bit of a rollercoaster trajectory, Villar has actually matched LeMahieu in career batting output (97 wRC+). And Villar was quite good in 2019, racking up 4 fWAR despite below-average defensive grades by turning in 162 games of quality hitting and league-leading legwork on the bases.
  • Kolten Wong (30): It all came together in 2019 for the longtime Cardinals second bagger, who contributed solid work across the board. With a repeat showing, the club is likely to exercise its $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout).

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Even at his best, Hernandez has never been anything close to an overwhelming offensive performer. But he does have a ~3 WAR established ceiling and has received fairly regular playing time over the past five seasons.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): The once- super-elite prospect has made it through major injury issues but has never fully come around at the MLB level. 2020 could be something of a make-or-break season.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Though he rebounded from a down 2018, Schoop wasn’t the 30+ homer slugger of yore. Defensive metrics are split on his fielding ability.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): After a rough start to the 2019 season, Cabrera caught fire down the stretch with the Nats. He’s unlikely to be an everyday guy come 2021, but is a trusted veteran who could still be seen as an important contributor.
  • Daniel Descalso (34): He’s all but certain to be paid a $1MM buyout rather than playing on a $3.5MM club option, barring a huge bounce back after a terrible first season with the Cubs.
  • Brian Dozier (34): It would be a surprise if Dozier returns to his levels of quiet stardom after two-straight down years. But he could have a chance to shine in San Diego if Profar falters.
  • Dee Gordon (33): It just hasn’t worked out for Gordon in Seattle. The M’s are sure to pay him a $1MM buyout instead of exercising a $14MM club option. But the speedy veteran could still have another act left.
  • Howie Kendrick (37): The bat is still legit, though it’s fair to wonder whether the glove still plays at second base. Odds are he’ll be seen mostly at an option in the corners going forward.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): It’s anyone’s guess how Lowrie will look when he finally gets back on the field.
  • Brad Miller (31): He surged back to life in a short 2019 run with the Phillies … but consistency has proven elusive over the years.
  • Eric Sogard (35): His power outburst with the Blue Jays faded after a mid-season trade to the Rays, but Sogard is still being paid to function as a significant contributor in his latest stint with the Brewers.

Others

Adeiny Hechavarria and Freddy Galvis can be considered candidates at second base, though their real value lies in their ability to handle shortstop. Bounceback candidates include Eduardo Nunez and Chris Owings.

Why The Gerrit Cole Trade Wasn’t A Total Bust For The Pirates

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We’re past the two-year anniversary of a trade that has made a significant impact on the Pirates, the Astros and perhaps Major League Baseball as a whole. In January 2018, the Pirates sent right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a package consisting of righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin.

Was the blockbuster worth it for Houston? Sure. Cole absolutely dominated in their uniform for two years and helped them to an American League pennant last season. But he’s now a member of the Yankees, who signed him to a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last winter. Has it been worth it for Pittsburgh? Debatable. Feliz and Moran haven’t amounted to much more than replacement-level players in the majors, while Martin has failed to register solid numbers at the Triple-A level. There’s at least one silver lining in Musgrove, who has emerged as a quality starter for the Pirates.

Let’s start by acknowledging that now-former Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was hamstrung by the team’s low budget. As a result of owner Bob Nutting’s unwillingness to commit a relatively enormous amount to any player (to this day, the biggest contract the Pirates have given out belongs to Jason Kendall, who signed a six-year, $60MM deal 20 years ago) there was no way the Pirates were going to be able to extend Cole – a Scott Boras client. And Cole, although a former No. 1 overall pick who logged ace-like numbers at times in a Pirates uniform, was not the Cy Young-level hurler he is now. Cole ate up 203 innings in his final year in Pittsburgh, but he also recorded a 4.26 ERA/4.08 FIP. No question that’s a useful output, but the run prevention was nowhere close to elite.

Whether or not you want to rail against the overall return the Pirates got for Cole, it’s clear they received at least one valuable player in Musgrove. Now 27 years old, Musgrove showed well in Houston from 2016-17 and has held his own in Pittsburgh during his two seasons there. He registered a 4.06 ERA/3.59 FIP in 115 1/3 innings in 2018 and put up similar numbers last year. Musgrove’s 4.44 ERA across 170 1/3 frames doesn’t look amazing, but he was near the top of the league in other important categories. He ranked 22nd in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.03), 24th in FIP (3,82), 30th in fWAR (3.3) and 34th in xFIP (4.31; that tied Madison Bumgarner, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a five-year, $85MM contract in free agency).

None of this is to say that the Pirates emerged from the Cole trade in great shape. They won 69 games last season and haven’t been a playoff team since 2015, after all, but their recent struggles certainly haven’t been the fault of Musgrove. Going forward, he’ll make a rather affordable $2.8MM this season – his third-last arbitration-eligible campaign – and could continue to improve his stock before his team control expires. Just how long Musgrove will stay a Pirate is in question, though; depending in part on whether they return to contention and if he’s amenable to an extension, the Bucs could decide Musgrove’s expendable if they’re not willing to make a long-term commitment to him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays’ quest to overhaul their pitching staff led to one of the biggest signings in franchise history.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Shun Yamaguchi, SP/RP: Two years, $6.35MM (plus $1.27MM to the Yomiuri Giants as a transfer fee)

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The 2019-20 offseason represented a turning point in the Blue Jays’ rebuild process, as Toronto cast a very wide net in search of upgrades both large and small.  The Jays were linked to just about every available pitcher, and also looked into such notable position player trade targets and free agents as Francisco Lindor, Yasmani Grandal, Didi Gregorius, Mike Moustakas, and former Toronto favorite Edwin Encarnacion.

It was a big push from a team coming off three consecutive losing seasons, and one that didn’t necessarily announce an intent to be a full-on contender in 2020.  Back in February, Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro stated that even a “.500 [record] would be a big step forward” for a club that only went 67-95 last season, yet it’s clear that management has a lot of faith that its young core of players can get the Blue Jays back into the playoff hunt sooner rather than later.

This set the stage for Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM contract.  It was the seventh-richest contract given to any free agent this winter in terms of total dollars, and it also marked the third-largest deal the Jays have given to any player.  It was a big commitment to make to a 33-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history, though Ryu brings genuine top-of-the-rotation ability when healthy.  Ryu’s 182 2/3 innings pitched in 2019 was the second-highest total of his career, and he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 2.32 ERA, 6.79 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9.

While $80MM is a sizeable expenditure for any team, Ryu’s deal is one the Blue Jays could somewhat comfortably afford to make, given their lack of long-term payroll commitments.  By this token, it could be argued that the Jays could have made another splashy signing (or trade) beyond just Ryu, though the counter to that argument is that Toronto perhaps still wants to see what it truly has in its young players.  As promising as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio are, the quartet has combined for only 418 Major League games — the four players have only appeared in the same starting lineup eight times.  Between this lack of experience and the fact that the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen, or Rowdy Tellez have yet to break out, it makes sense that the Jays didn’t want to go overboard in building around a foundation that may not yet be entirely stable.

That said, some extra willingness to build was required given the escalating prices in free agency, and the simple fact that the 2019-20 offseason moved at a much quicker pace than the previous two winters.  As noted by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi back in February, GM Ross Atkins essentially changed tactics midway through the offseason, as failing to adapt to the changing marketplace would have left the Jays without the pitching help they so badly needed.

Ryu was the biggest addition, though Tanner Roark brings some more innings-eating veteran experience to the rotation.  The Blue Jays also went overseas to add pitching, signing Shun Yamaguchi to a two-year contract after the right-hander was posted by the Yomiuri Giants.  At the time of the COVID-19 shutdown, Yamaguchi was being targeted for the bullpen, though it could have been something of a long relief or swingman role to keep him stretched out for possible starts.

Between these three signings and Chase Anderson (acquired in a trade with the Brewers in early November), Toronto’s pitching situation looks far more solid than it did last season, when injuries and inexperience resulted in the Jays getting just 711 1/3 innings from their starting pitchers, the third-lowest total in baseball.  None of Roark, Anderson, Yamaguchi, and Matt Shoemaker are controlled beyond the 2021 season, leaving a lot of flexibility within the rotation for younger pitchers to eventually move into the picture — most prominently, one of the sport’s best pitching prospects in Nate Pearson.

Yamaguchi’s availability in the bullpen helps strengthen a relief corps that also added Anthony Bass, A.J. Cole, old friend Marc Rzepczynski, and Rafael Dolis to the mix.  Dolis was the only MLB signing of that trio, inking a $1MM deal to return to North America after four dominant years pitching out of the Hanshin Tigers’ bullpen.

Perhaps the biggest reliever-related headline for the Blue Jays was a move that didn’t happen, as Ken Giles is still in a Toronto uniform.  The closer was widely expected to be dealt over the winter, though a lack of early interest seemed to carry through the entire offseason.  It could also be that the Jays changed their view on trading Giles after the Ryu signing raised expectations for a competitive season, or at worst, the club figured they could still move him at the trade deadline.

Now, of course, that plan has been entirely altered since we don’t know when a 2020 trade deadline could fall, or whether the 2020 season will be played whatsoever.  If the season is indeed cancelled, Giles will still be eligible for free agency as scheduled, leaving the Jays in danger of losing him for nothing.  (The Jays could receive a draft pick if Giles rejected a qualifying offer, or Giles could even accept a QO and stay with Toronto, though it remains to be seen if the club would want to pay Giles such a hefty one-year salary.)

Given the flirtations with the likes of Lindor and Moustakas, Travis Shaw could certainly be seen as an underwhelming choice as the Blue Jays’ most notable new position player.  Shaw is coming off a terrible 2019 season, though the Jays are betting that year was an aberration considering Shaw’s track record over his previous four MLB campaigns.  Shaw will essentially replace Justin Smoak as the regular first baseman, though Shaw’s ability to play third base and second base gives manager Charlie Montoyo the ability to shuffle his lineups.

Multi-position versatility was a stated priority for Atkins heading into the offseason, which also led to Joe Panik being brought aboard to add depth at shortstop and second base.  Except for Tellez, the catchers, and maybe Guerrero (who could yet eventually be a first base option), every player on the Blue Jays’ projected roster can play multiple positions, be it an outfielder who can play at least two positions on the grass, or a player like Biggio who could be used all over the diamond.

The catch, however, is that while the Jays have several players who can handle multiple positions, it’s still an open question as to how many can play well at any position.  Shaw and Randal Grichuk are coming off rough seasons, while Panik and Brandon Drury have been replacement-level players or worse in each of the last two seasons.  As mentioned earlier, the developmental path of so many of Toronto’s young players is still an unknown, so it doesn’t create much of a safety net if the veterans all continue to struggle.

Of the bigger-name position players on the Jays’ target list, Moustakas is perhaps the one that seemed reasonably closest to becoming a reality.  Grandal would likely have only been heavily pursued if the Jays had found a good offer for Jansen or Reese McGuire, Toronto’s plan to have Gregorius play second base might not have appealed to the long-time shortstop, and there isn’t much evidence that the Jays’ pursuit of Lindor amounted to anything besides due diligence.  (Acquiring Lindor would have also significantly accelerated the Blue Jays’ timeline for contention, since Lindor is only under contract through the 2021 season.)

With Moustakas, however, the Jays were reportedly the second-highest bidder, offering the infielder a three-year, $30MM deal that far surpassed the one-year deals Moustakas had been forced to settle for in the last two free agent markets, and also topped MLBTR’s projected two-year, $20MM contract for him this winter.  Considering the Reds went above and beyond all expectations to sign Moustakas to a four-year, $64MM deal, it’s hard to fault the Blue Jays for being outbid by such a massive splurge.  Still, if not Moustakas himself, the Jays’ lineup would look a lot more solid had one more proven, above-average hitter been brought into the mix to augment the still-developing younger hitters, rather than just hoping that Shaw can bounce back.

2020 Season Outlook

If some games are played in 2020, there’s a chance a shorter season could be to the Jays’ benefit in terms of actual on-field results.  Theoretically, a younger roster could be more suited to handling a compacted schedule with many unusual aspects (regular double-headers, games in minor league or Spring Training parks, etc.) that could be a harder adjustment for a veteran team that is more set in its ways.  Also, while it didn’t seem likely that the Blue Jays could hang with the Yankees or Rays over 162 games, keeping pace over something like an 81-game sprint isn’t as far-fetched.

With so many question marks still surrounding the roster, however, the threat of a shortened or altogether canceled 2020 season is particularly tough on the Blue Jays.  Not only could all of these questions be kicked down the road into 2021, a reduced or lost season also wipes out invaluable development time for youngsters at both the MLB and minor league levels, and erases the year that the Jays could have most directly counted on as a prime Ryu season.

One significant question that was answered this offseason is that we now have evidence that the Jays are willing and able to make an expensive impact in the free agent market, which was a criticism often directed by Toronto fans towards both club ownership and the Shapiro/Atkins regime.  It would have been easy for the front office to respond to the market’s rising price tags by stepping back and making only lower-level signings since the Jays were still in a rebuild phase, yet the team felt the time was right to make the big strike.  The Ryu contract is a hint at future aggressiveness down the road, when the Blue Jays are even better positioned to challenge for the postseason.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?

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If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019.  That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected.  That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.

A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020.  Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26.  And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.

It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season.  The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.

Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
  • Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
  • Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow.  However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020.  So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them.  My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.

Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value.  And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons.  The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.  Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent).  They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder.  That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder.  The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019.  Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.

Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period.  It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.

Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled?  I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely.  As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.”  Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.

For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:

2020-21 Free Agent Class: First Basemen

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Considering the circumstances, we figure to be in for an unusual free agency period in Major League Baseball next offseason. We’ve already run down the most notable catchers and shortstops who are slated to reach the open market once the winter rolls around in several months. We’ll do the same here with first basemen (players’ listed ages are for the 2021 campaign) …

Top Of The Class

  • Anthony Rizzo (31): It would be a huge surprise to see Rizzo become a free agent after next season, as he’s a Cubs icon, a valuable player and someone whose 2021 club option ($14.5MM, compared to a $2MM buyout) looks very reasonable for what he’s able to produce.
  • Carlos Santana (35): Santana’s future appears harder to determine than Rizzo’s. On one hand, Santana’s high-on-base ways lead to solid numbers at the plate every year. Still, it’s fair to wonder if the Indians are going to be willing to exercise his pricey option in 2021. They’re a small-market club, after all, and getting rid of Santana’s $17.5MM salary in favor of a $500K buyout would save them a substantial amount of money.
  • Yuli Gurriel (37): Gurriel was tremendous last season, a 31-home run, 132 wRC+ performance, but whether it was the product of a juiced ball or a real breakthrough remains to be seen. He wasn’t an offensive dynamo in his previous three major league seasons, and the fact that he’ll be closer to 40 than 30 when he becomes a free agent won’t help his cause.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Edwin Encarnacion (38): Encarnacion remains a formidable hitter, but he’s more of a DH than a first baseman nowadays, and the White Sox will be able to keep him for a reasonable $12MM by way of a club option in 2021.
  • C.J. Cron (31): While Cron packs a punch (he piled up 55 home runs from 2018-19), he has historically only been a little above average as an all-around offensive player (109 wRC+). As a first baseman, that limits his value.
  • Daniel Murphy (36): At this rate, the Rockies seem likely to buy out Murphy for $6MM as opposed to keeping him for $12MM. Although Murphy has typically held his own at the plate, he was a serious disappointment in 2019 in the first season of a two-year, $24MM guarantee with the Rockies. A repeat may limit Murphy to a minor league pact.
  • Justin Smoak (34): Smoak wasn’t that productive in his final Blue Jays season last year, yet he was a Statcast favorite. So, if his bottom-line numbers tick upward in 2020 (let’s assume a season actually happens), it wouldn’t be that surprising to see the Brewers keep him for $5.5MM; otherwise, they could buy the switch-hitting Smoak out for $1MM.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Howie Kendrick (37): Kendrick can flat-out hit, and he may have been the most valuable bench player in the game last year, though age will continue to work against him next time he gets to free agency. That said, Kendrick’s 2019 heroics helped convince the Nationals to re-sign him to a $6.25MM guarantee after a brief trip to the market last offseason.
  • Mitch Moreland (35): The Red Sox will be able to retain Moreland for a $3MM option or cut ties with him for $500K in the coming months. Neither outcome would come as a shock. Moreland has typically been something close to a replacement-level player in most seasons, but the Red Sox have shown under multiple administrations that they like him. Whether or not Boston keeps Moreland beyond 2020, it would make sense to largely deploy the left-hander against righties this year, considering he ha sperformed far better against them during his career.
  • Todd Frazier (35): A third baseman for the vast majority of his career, Frazier hasn’t even amassed double-digit appearances at first since 2014. The power-hitting Frazier has usually produced well as a third bagger, though, so perhaps the Rangers will bring him back in 2021 on a $5.75MM salary (they could instead buy him out for $1.5MM).
  • Ryan Zimmerman (36): The man known as Mr. National probably won’t ever play anywhere but D.C., where he’s an icon. Even if he does, there won’t be a sizable amount of playing time or a large payday for the once-stellar third baseman.
  • Brad Miller (31): The left-handed Miller has struggled versus southpaws, and he hasn’t played first since 2018, but he’s decent against righties and has lined up at almost every position on the diamond during his career.
  • Neil Walker (35): The longtime second baseman seems to be nearing the finish line, but the switch-hitting Walker has usually been at least a league-average offensive player.

MLB Player Contracts In A Shortened Or Canceled Season

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It seems there’s still a good deal of confusion out there surrounding just what will happen to player contracts given the disruptions to the 2020 MLB season. We’ll do our best to explain the situation in this post, based upon what has been reported to this point.

Background

In the wake of the suspension of Spring Training and the 2020 season, MLB and the MLB Players Association wisely engaged in immediate bargaining to address the massive and sudden changes to the expected state of affairs. The sides have already agreed upon modifications to the Basic Agreement governing league affairs. The full agreement hasn’t yet been released, but the key parameters are largely known (see here and here).

Related Matters

Numerous player salary determinations have been reached that do not specifically bear upon MLB contracts as typically covered here at MLBTR. The union has authorized stipends to certain players and the league has announced team payments to minor-league players. Other employees and contractors have also been addressed, if not fully accounted for on an ongoing basis: league staff, salaried team employees, and hourly employees. At least some teams have also provided some manner of financial assistance to independent contractors that have lost anticipated wages. There are numerous changes afoot to the 2020 amateur intake process (draft and international signings).

MLB Service Time

The key union bargaining priority, by all indication, was to preserve the anticipated player movement through arbitration and into free agency. That was secured in the aforementioned agreement, which assured players of the chance to accrue a full year of MLB service in 2020.

In the event of a shortened season, players will be awarded service time on a pro-rated basis. Players that accrue service for the entirety of the truncated campaign — those on the active roster and/or MLB injured list — would still get a full year of service. In the event of a canceled season, players will be credited MLB service in the same amount they accrued it in 2019.

The agreed-upon system is obviously far from a perfect approximation of what would theoretically have occurred had the 2020 campaign been played as planned (to the extent that can even be guessed at). But it does largely preserve what we’d have anticipated before the pandemic arose, at least in terms of the overall volume of service that will recognized. And while the distribution of service time will differ, it was surely necessary to utilize some sort of crude-but-objective mechanism.

As a practical matter, then, we will still see the same 2020-21 free agent class that had been expected — with Mookie Betts leading the way, even if the Dodgers never see him play a game in their uniform. Those that missed time in 2019 on the 10-day or 60-day MLB injured list will still get full credit for another year of service. Players will qualify and move through arbitration as normal, with Walker Buehler and Juan Soto among the potential Super Two qualifiers.

The major impact, in the event of a cancellation, will be on certain recently arriving big leaguers that had less than a full service in 2019 and on prospects who had expected to debut in 2020. Keston Hiura may actually not be hurt at all — with 114 service days last year, he wouldn’t have been a likely future Super Two qualifier and will still go into the 1+ service class. But Bo Bichette logged only 63 days in 2019, so he’d end up well shy of a full season if there’s no 2020 campaign. That would push back his eventual arbitration and free agent qualification by a full year. Top prospects such as Jo Adell wouldn’t have a chance to break into the majors in 2020.

MLB Player Salaries

Under the very same agreement that sorted out the service-time issues, the players gave up an immense amount of potential earnings in the 2020 season. In the event of a season cancellation, MLB players will receive just $170MM in total from teams — less than one-twentieth what their contracts would otherwise call for.

Should a partial season take place, players will earn on a pro-rated basis. Whether that’s based upon days of the season or games played isn’t entirely clear; that would make a difference if a compressed schedule is attempted. Regardless of the details, the main point stands: a player’s actual 2020 earnings will be quite a bit lower than expected if the season is shortened. But players would still earn a typical check for that portion of the campaign that is staged — if, at least, fans are in attendance. Since this post was originally published, a disagreement between the league and union has emerged. The league claims that the original agreement does not cover a situation in which games are played without spectators; the union contends that the pro rata system should hold regardless.

Future Earnings

There are some initial agreements already in place that will impact the near future. The word on 2021 arbitration salaries remains ambiguous. ESPN.com has reported that “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.” It sounds as if there’s an anticipation of a reduction in raises, though precisely how it is expected to work just isn’t evident.

There’s greater clarity with respect to the luxury tax. No penalty payments will be owed if the season isn’t played. If there’s a partial season, competitive balance payments will be prorated. But the luxury tax system will not automatically reset in the event that the 2020 season is canceled. We recently explored the ramifications of that here.

Of course, the competitive balance system operates primarily to constrain player spending by large-market teams … in a typical market setting. There’s little question that the immediate and long-term economic impact of the pandemic will have an even greater impact on free agent spending. Precisely how the coronavirus will impact the future is still largely unknown, both broadly and with respect to Major League Baseball.

As more is learned about the virus and the international response to it, that information will surely impact negotiations. The sides have much to discuss — not only about 2020 and 2021, but beyond, as the Basic Agreement expires after the 2021 season. At this point, there is no indication of an effort to reduce previously guaranteed salaries for future seasons, but they represent a major future liability to teams and could play an interesting role in the bargaining to come.

A Potential Breakout Slugger For Yankees

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Despite the myriad injuries they faced a year ago, the Yankees amassed 103 wins and boasted the majors’ highest-scoring offense. There were many unsung heroes along the way for the Bronx Bombers, including hulking first baseman Mike Ford, a former undrafted player out of Princeton University who went on a tear during his first stint in the bigs in 2019.

Ford, soon to turn 28, has been a member of the Yankees organization for just about all of his pro career, but he did spend some time with the Mariners last year. That came after Seattle chose Ford 11th overall in the December 2018 Rule 5 Draft. But the Mariners determined in late March they didn’t have a place for Ford, so the Yankees got him back. It was a fortunate turn of events for New York, with which Ford slashed .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) and smacked 12 home runs over 50 games and 163 plate appearances. Among 411 hitters who totaled at least 150 PA, Ford ranked 15th in isolated power (.301, tying him with Reds 49-homer man Eugenio Suarez).

Was Ford’s outburst just the product of a small sample size? It’s quite possible – after all, it’s not atypical for a player to come out of nowhere to succeed in.a low number of at-bats, only to crash to earth thereafter. But there are plenty of promising signs that go beyond Ford’s bottom-line numbers from 2019.

For one, Ford has a history of quality production in the minors. Just last year, for example, Ford hit .303/.401/.605 with 23 homers in 349 PA in Triple-A ball. Even in an offensively charged environment, his output was an eye-popping 51 percent above average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. And Ford collected nearly as many unintentional walks (46) as strikeouts (55), which has been a trend throughout his pro career. Ford, unlike many hitters, doesn’t sell out for power at the expensive of strikeouts. He only fanned 17.2 percent of the time in the majors last year (compared to a solid 10.4 percent walk rate) and swung and missed at a meager 8.1 percent clip. For reference, the average MLB hitter posted a 23 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and an 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate.

Digging deeper, Ford was a Statcast hit, as he logged an expected weighted on-base average (.365) that almost matched his real wOBA (.372). In terms of batted-ball profile, his main comparables included Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Max Kepler, Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager. That’s pretty good company. Ford accomplished those feats despite an abnormally low .243 batting average on balls in play, but it’s worth pointing out that he isn’t fleet of foot – not to mention that HRs don’t factor into BABIP. He’s not an ideal candidate to put up a high number in that category, anyway.

Looking ahead, if we’re lucky enough to get a 2020 season, Ford seems to have the potential to at least serve as a useful part of the Yankees’ offense for the second straight year. He doesn’t have the clearest path to extensive playing time, however. The Yankees also have the offensively capable Luke Voit–Miguel Andujar tandem as first base possibilities. And they, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez could eat into DH at-bats (though Ford’s the lone left-handed hitter of the group). It’s tough to argue with what Ford did last season, though, and he just may prove to be another keeper for their offense if that carries over.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020-21 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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We have long carried a running list of 2020-21 free agents. With the offseason now completed, it has been updated to feature the players presently scheduled to reach the open market at the conclusion of the 2020 season (whether or not it is played).

We’ll take the opportunity to run through the class of players by position … starting with the catchers (season-age for 2021; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

  • J.T. Realmuto (30) – The Phillies haven’t been able to work out a long-term deal with the star receiver, who is still in his prime. He could challenge for a record-setting free agent deal for a backstop.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Robinson Chirinos (36) – The late-bloomer keeps hitting and laying claim to more and more playing time.
  • James McCann (31) – Despite a breakout 2019 season, the White Sox pushed McCann into a secondary role when they inked Yasmani Grandal.
  • Yadier Molina (38) – There’s virtually no chance the Cards’ icon will make it to free agency, let alone end up with another team.
  • Roberto Perez (32) ($5.5MM club option with a $450K buyout) – The Indians won’t allow Perez to become a free agent if he repeats his strong 2019 showing.
  • Wilson Ramos (33) ($10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout) – The bat is still legit but questions remain about how much the Buffalo can handle behind the dish. It’s possible the Mets could retain him after a big season, but Ramos could be a better fit in the American League going forward.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Alex Avila (34) – High-OBP lefty hitter is still a nice complimentary piece, especially with a 26-man active roster.
  • Welington Castillo (34) – He’s in need of a bounceback after a rough showing in ’19.
  • Jason Castro (34) – The well-regarded defender just turned in an above-average year with the bat.
  • Francisco Cervelli (35) – He struggled in 2019 but was a high-end hitter in the prior campaign.
  • Tyler Flowers (35) – Flowers is a well-rated pitch-framer whose bat has faded a bit.
  • Chris Iannetta (38) – The long-time veteran decided to keep going in 2020, but the season freeze puts his future in question.
  • Sandy Leon (32) – A strong defensive backstop, Leon is going to have to show he can do something with the bat if he’s to keep getting chances.
  • Jeff Mathis (38) – Mathis made his money on an unparalleled reputation for overall defensive value, but he may not get another MLB offer if he can’t improve on last year’s showing at the plate (.158/.209/.224).
  • Austin Romine (32) – He got paid a fairly hefty sum by the Tigers after perking up offensively in the past two seasons.
  • Kurt Suzuki (37) – The second act as a flyball-heavy home run hitter has had legs, as Suzuki has delivered three-straight above-average offensive seasons, but his inability to control the running game is a concern.
  • Stephen Vogt (36) (2021 vesting/club option) – Vogt came back strong in 2019, but he’ll probably have to keep hitting at an above-average clip to hold onto a timeshare.
  • Mike Zunino (30) – When he’s going with the bat, Zunino is a high-quality all-around performer. But he has never been consistent and the arrow pointed straight down (.165/.232/.312) in 2019.

Prospect Faceoff: 2 Future AL Central Stars?

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The Twins’ Royce Lewis and the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. are among the jewels of their respective clubs’ farm systems, and if we’re to believe prospect gurus, there isn’t much separation between the two. Both players are regarded as top 30 prospects, MLB.com ranking Lewis ninth, FanGraphs placing him 13th and Baseball America putting him in the No. 26 spot. Witt checks in at Nos. 10, 23 and 24 on those lists.

Lewis, now 20 years old, entered the professional ranks as the No. 1 overall pick in 2017. At $6.725MM, Lewis received what was then the largest bonus ever given to a player drafted out of high school. Lewis came roaring out of the gates at the lower levels that year and the next season, though his production has dropped of late. He made his debut in Double-A ball last season and batted .231/.291/.358 (88 wRC+) with just two home runs in 148 plate appearances, though it’s worth noting that he was much younger than the typical player at that level. And Lewis, to his credit, did absolutely thrive dominate during the autumn in the Arizona Fall League, where he earned Most Valuable Player honors. There are some concerns about his “cacophonous” swing, as FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen explained in February, but he added that “the star-level talent will eventually shine through.”

Just where Lewis will line up in the majors remains to be seen. He’s versatile enough to play multiple positions (including center field), and the Twins seem to have found a long-term answer at short in Jorge Polanco. Likewise, the Royals are in nice shape at short with Adalberto Mondesi, so it’s up in the air where Witt will fit if he does arrive in Kansas City someday. They and the Twins can worry about how best to align their defenses at a later date, though.

[RELATED: When Will The Royals Contend Again?]

Witt, the son of former MLB hurler Bobby Witt, joined the Royals as the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft. He, like Lewis, got to the majors after a tremendous performance as a high school shortstop, and wound up signing for an almost $7.8MM bonus. But Witt endured his struggles during his initial taste of pro ball last summer, hitting .262/.317/.354 (85 wRC+) with only one homer in 180 PA in rookie ball. Nevertheless, Longenhagen compared Witt to Rockies star Trevor Story just a couple weeks ago, writing, “There are going to be some strikeouts but Witt is a big, athletic specimen who is very likely to not only stay at shortstop but be quite good there.”

Whichever positions these two play, we’ll be looking at a couple AL Central standouts if they develop according to plan in the coming years. Which prospect would you choose?

(Poll link for app users)

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