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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies spent more than $100MM for a third consecutive winter — including a second straight offseason with a nine-figure contract — as they look to end a playoff drought that now spans close to a decade.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Philadelphia’s offseason kicked off with several days of deliberation over the fate of former manager Gabe Kapler. General manager Matt Klentak reportedly supported Kapler until the end but was overruled by owner John Middleton. The Phillies set right to work in interviewing some of the most experienced and decorated managers in recent memory, ultimately settling on Joe Girardi, who was hired just two weeks after Kapler’s ousting was announced.

The 2019 Phillies were a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of runs scored and a decidedly below-average club in terms of their overall rate stats at the plate (91 wRC+ as a team). Phillies starting pitchers were middle-of-the-road in terms of total innings (13th) and ERA (17th). Fielding-independent metrics painted similarly underwhelming pictures. The bullpen looked like a strength heading into the year — until virtually every reliever on the Phillies’ roster went down with an injury. The patchwork collection of bullpen arms that Klentak and his staff put together on the fly was — you guessed it — right in the middle of the pack (16th in ERA, 14th in xFIP).

To the credit of Klentak and the Phillies, one of the goals last winter was to upgrade the defense — and they did, by leaps and bounds. No team improved more defensively in 2019, although that’s in large part because their ’18 glovework was astonishingly bad. The Phillies posted a stunning -118 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018 but remarkably ranked eighth in the Majors at +51 in 2019. Unfortunately, injuries, regression elsewhere and a lack of progress from some younger players counteracted much of that improvement. The 2019 Phillies finished out the year as an average team with the bat and on the mound, so the resulting 81-81 record probably shouldn’t have been a surprise.

With so much room for improvement with regard to the offense and the pitching staff, Klentak and company had a wide variety of avenues to pursue, but the GM made clear early in the winter that augmenting the rotation was his priority. Looking at pitching ahead of the offense indeed seemed prudent; a full season of Andrew McCutchen, a rebound from Rhys Hoskins after a second-half slump, and the addition a smaller-scale upgrade over Maikel Franco could reasonably be viewed as a path to an improved offense. The pitching side was far less clear.

Aaron Nola, of course, has cemented himself as a high-quality rotation cog, but the rest of the Phillies’ staff was less appealing. Jake Arrieta no longer looks the part of a $25MM arm and had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow late in the year. Zach Eflin is a solid back-of-the-rotation option but lacks a lofty ceiling. Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta both took significant steps back in 2019. And the farm system lacks much in the way of quality, MLB-ready pitching (excepting, perhaps, top prospect Spencer Howard).

The question was just how aggressive the team should be in pursuing its preferred options. The Phillies spent $330MM on Bryce Harper a winter ago, showing they can spend as highly as anyone in the game, but they were never strongly connected to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. Rather, it was the market’s No. 3 arm, Zack Wheeler, who quickly emerged as a top entrant on the Phillies’ wishlist.

“One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond,” Klentak said in an early November interview with the 94WIP Midday Show. That seemed to cast some doubt on whether the Phils would seriously pursue Wheeler or whether they’d instead look to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, or another veteran arm who hadn’t rejected a qualifying offer. However, less than a month later, the Phillies agreed to a five-year, $118MM deal with Wheeler.

The price shocked some onlookers, although the Phillies weren’t even the highest bidder. Multiple reports indicated that the White Sox offered more than $120MM over a five-year term, but Wheeler had a preference to remain on the east coast, spurning Chicago’s advances and perhaps dissuading the also-interested Twins from upping their initial five-year, $100MM offer. Wheeler is already a quality arm, but his blend of relative youth, velocity, strikeout prowess and elite spin rate give him the feel of a breakout candidate. The Phillies are surely hoping that there’s another gear for Wheeler; going from a team with -86 Defensive Runs Saved to one who posted +51 DRS also shouldn’t hurt his cause.

There’s an argument to be made that the Phillies should’ve pursued a second starting pitcher. The combination of Nola, Wheeler, Arrieta and Eflin has the makings of a solid top four, but both Pivetta and Velasquez have struggled in multiple rotation auditions. Ranger Suarez, Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and others loom as depth options, and the aforementioned Howard should open the season in Double-A (with an eventual MLB promotion in 2020 not out of the question entirely). But the Phillies are a team in dire “win-now” mode, having missed the postseason each year since 2011.  Despite Klentak’s three-year extension from last winter, the GM had to field questions about his own job security this offseason, and the fact that he was overruled on Kapler’s future only puts further pressure on him to put a winner on the field.

Relying on internal options to round out the fifth spot again, then, is a particularly dicey proposition. The market featured plenty of solid veterans who took an annual value of $10MM or less — Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello among them — and several bounceback candidates with some degree of ceiling signed for under $10MM (e.g. Alex Wood, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, Michael Wacha, Taijuan Walker). The Wheeler addition, however, proved to be Philadelphia’s only rotation pickup of the winter on either the Major League or minor league side.

From there, the front office set its sights on improving a lineup that has a number of solid pieces but still plenty of uncertainty. Odubel Herrera’s domestic violence suspension and poor performance at the plate led to him being outrighted off the 40-man roster, but he lacks the service time to reject the assignment while retaining the remainder of his contract.  That leaves Herrera stuck in the organization, and leaves the Phillies with a fairly notable question mark in center field. Beyond that, Philadelphia’s decision to jettison both Franco and Cesar Hernandez via non-tender — the former due to continued ineffectiveness and the latter more due to his escalating arbitration price — left a pair of potential spots for upgrade in the infield.

The key piece for the Phillies in all of this was versatile youngster Scott Kingery, who has proven himself to be not just a capable defender at multiple positions but a legitimate asset at a number of spots on the diamond. His ability to move around left the Phillies able to explore the market for center fielders, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops alike. In the end, the decision was made to sign Didi Gregorius to a one-year deal, slide Jean Segura from shortstop to second base, and deploy Kingery as the primary third baseman. That sets up former first-round pick Adam Haseley as the primary center fielder, although he could be in a platoon of sorts with fleet-footed Roman Quinn. Alternatively, the Phils could play Kingery in center against lefties and go with a non-roster veteran like Josh Harrison or Neil Walker at third base on those days.

The Gregorius addition is a bet on a rebound for a player who looked to be emerging as a high-end shortstop before 2018 Tommy John surgery interrupted that trajectory. Gregorius was sensational for the ’18 Yankees, hitting .268/.335/.494 with quality glovework. A return to that level of play would be a boon for the Phils, and while defensive metrics show a fairly wide split in evaluating his glove at shortstop, the hope is that Gregorius will represent a further defensive upgrade over Segura.

As was the case with the pitching staff, though, it seems like the Phillies could’ve gone bigger. Gregorius is a perfectly sensible one-year gamble or even a potential bargain at $14MM, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that the plan in center field is to trot out a 24-year-old who hit .266/.324/.396 (88 wRC+) in his debut campaign last year. Haseley appears to be a capable defender, but he played in all of 18 games in Triple-A before his call to the Majors and has yet to prove he can hit big league pitching at an average rate. The free-agent market was pretty thin, but the Phillies could’ve also pursued any number of third-base options and installed Kingery in center field. Trades for veterans like Starling Marte or even Kris Bryant would’ve made sense on paper.

In the bullpen, the club opted not to make much of any additions at all. Tommy Hunter returns on a surprising big league deal but with a meager $850K salary. Some combination of Francisco Liriano, Anthony Swarzak, Bud Norris and Blake Parker could parlay a non-roster invite into a spot on the MLB roster, and waiver pickups like Reggie McClain and Deolis Guerra give the Phils some additional depth. However, the team is relying on a cast of characters that didn’t perform particularly well in 2019, hoping for numerous bounce-backs or returns to health. In the case of the talented Seranthony Dominguez, it appears they may already be out of luck on the injury front.

The Phillies’ lack of supplemental moves and their proximity to the $208MM luxury tax threshold makes it impossible not to wonder whether Klentak and his staff were instructed to keep the payroll south of that line. Owner John Middleton told reporters in February that he never expressly dictated as much to Klentak, but it’s hard to see a win-now club with a few obvious holes sitting narrowly under the line and not connect those dots. It’s quite likely that one or two names from the cavalcade of non-roster veterans will make the Phillies’ roster, perhaps pushing them right up against that barrier.

If there’s one pending piece of business for the Phils, it’s the status of one of their best all-around players: catcher J.T. Realmuto. The two sides have spent much of the spring at the negotiation table in hopes of hammering out a long-term deal that’ll keep the All-Star from the open market next winter, but talks have been put on hold for now. With Realmuto reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey’s $159MM guarantee — perhaps on a six-year pact — it could be tough for the two sides to come to mutually agreeable terms.

2020 Season Outlook

The Phillies should be a better team in 2020 than they were in 2019, but it feels like they pulled some punches this winter. Perhaps Haseley will solidify himself as a quality regular in center, and perhaps one of Pivetta or Velasquez will finally break out into the quality starter many have believed them to potentially be. It feels like this team could’ve used another addition or two, though, and that’s a tough spot to be in when considering the level of competition they’ll face.

The Nationals are fresh off a World Series win. The Braves, buoyed by one of MLB’s best young cores, have won consecutive division titles. The Mets have one of the game’s most talented collection of pitchers — even if several key names are seeking a bounceback season. Even the rebuilding Marlins added some veterans this winter and should be a tougher opponent than they were in 2019.

It should be another tight NL East race whenever we do get a season, and while the Phillies won’t be considered a favorite, there’s enough talent on the club to end their increasingly long postseason drought.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users) 

Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing

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’Twas the winter of 2015-16. Jason Heyward wasn’t the best-available player in a well-stocked free agent class. But he was a high-quality performer and still tantalizingly young (26). While hardly a traditional corner outfield star due to his middling power, Heyward was well-established as a quality hitter and superlative defender and baserunner.

The debate raged long before the offseason arrived: how much can you really pay for a player like this? All agreed he was good. But the traditionalists howled at the notion of a right fielder who hadn’t even hit forty home runs over the prior three seasons landing a premium contract. The analytically minded countered that, well, runs are runs regardless of how they’re added or prevented. Heyward was a 6.9 rWAR / 5.6 fWAR performer in 2015. With exceptional glovework and a steady OBP, Heyward seemed to be a high-floor player who might have some ceiling as well.

[RELATED: Jason Heyward & Chris Davis Have Two Of The Worst Free Agent Contracts … In Different Ways]

We predicted that Heyward would earn $200MM over a full decade — second-most in a rather well-stocked free agent class. That didn’t quite happen, but the real deal was actually more favorable to Heyward than the one we had guessed. He landed $184MM over an eight-year term and also got two opt-out opportunities (which was worth something at the time the deal was struck, even if they weren’t exercised). The deal delivered a nice $23MM AAV over quite a lengthy term.

Now that we’re all reacquainted with the contract as it turned out … let’s try to remind ourselves of the state of play in the market when it was struck. At the time of the pact, there were hints that the Cubs may not have been the high bidder. The Nationals supposedly had the top offer on the table, though we may presume it’d have been deferred. The incumbent Cardinals were also known to be in pursuit. And the Angels and Giants were still involved in rumors right up until the end.

So … what would things have looked like if Heyward had landed elsewhere?

Nationals

Whoa … would the Nats have hoisted the commisioner’s trophy last fall had they signed Heyward? That’s obviously not something that can be assessed fairly given the innumerable butterfly effects potentially at play. But the counter-factual does actually present a pretty similar situation to what actually happened in 2019. In right field, the Nationals got solid but hardly otherworldly work out of Adam Eaton — another left-handed hitter whose skillset is rather similar to that of Heyward.

More interesting to consider is the fact that the Nats probably wouldn’t ever have dealt for Eaton had they already acquired Heyward. Eaton landed in D.C. after the team missed on its effort to acquire Chris Sale for the White Sox. The swap cost the Nationals pitchers Lucas Giolito (reimagine 2019 with him on the staff), Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Of course, Eaton has been much more affordable than Heyward this whole time. Who knows if the Nats would’ve inked Patrick Corbin last winter had Heyward been on the books.

Ultimately, the Washington organization has deep enough pockets that it would’ve been just fine with an underperforming $23MM salary on the books — not unlike the Cubs. At the same time, also not unlike the Cubs, the Nats have been focused on getting and staying just under the luxury tax line, so this deal would’ve been a constant nuisance that would’ve interfered with any number of lower-cost veteran signings and acquisitions over the past several seasons.

Cardinals

Much like the Nats, the Cards eventually made a big deal for a somewhat similar player. One winter after missing on Heyward (despite reportedly offering as much or more as the arch-rival Cubbies), the Redbirds reversed the talent flow by inking former Chicago center fielder Dexter Fowler. The switch-hitting Fowler wasn’t nearly as expensive as Heyward, but his own five-year, $82.5MM deal has worked out about as poorly. The Fowler contract probably wouldn’t have been signed had Heyward been around, but this is probably to the Cardinals’ benefit since the Heyward deal features a bigger and longer hit. Perhaps the Cubs would’ve ended up retaining Fowler had they missed on Heyward. You could argue over the details, but it’s probably not far from a wash.

Of course, the Cards went without either of those players in that 2016 campaign … which helped open the door to the memorable shooting star of Jeremy Hazelbaker. It’s tough to say whether there were significant long-term effects on the way the Cards’ outfield picture developed. Going without Heyward in 2016 opened more playing time for outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and, to a lesser extent, a pre-breakout Tommy Pham. Perhaps one or more would’ve been shipped out of town earlier had Heyward been retained. Maybe Pham’s breakout would’ve occurred elsewhere, thus eliminating his successive trades (to the Rays and then to the Padres), though it’s impossible to say that with any degree of confidence.

Angels

We don’t know whether the Halos were really strong pursuers of Heyward, but it’s worth considering what might’ve been. The club ended up foregoing any big free agent splashes that winter. (It had already acquired Andrelton Simmons.) Adding Heyward surely wouldn’t have forestalled the string of four-straight losing seasons, given the way he has played. But it might’ve prevented the Angels from eventually trading for and then extending Justin Upton. And it certainly could’ve gummed up this winter’s signing of Anthony Rendon.

Giants

Likewise, it’s not entirely clear that the Giants were heavily involved in bidding up Heyward’s price, but the team clearly had some real interest. The San Francisco org splashed a lot of regrettable cash that winter regardless. It had already inked Jeff Samardzija and ended up signing Johnny Cueto after Heyward landed with the Cubs. The Giants did find a rather direct alternative to Heyward, inking Denard Span to a three-year, $31MM pact. That didn’t quite go as hoped but was hardly a significant disaster. Suffice to say that having Heyward on the books would’ve further complicated an already difficult stretch for the organization.

Cubs

Ah, yes. The Cubs. Lauded at the time by some for landing Heyward for less than others would’ve paid — really, the deal was probably right at the market rate, give or take — the Cubbies have obviously not benefited from the signing.

Remember how we started this post? The debate over paying out a non-slugging right fielder. Consider these contemporaneous comments. On the one hand …

On the other …

To some degree, neither turned out to be right. And the lack of power was largely beside the point. Heyward did top twenty long balls in 2019, but he was still an average-or-worse hitter for the fourth-straight year. It was certainly his best offensive season for the Cubs … but also the team’s own worst effort in this four-year span. No, the Cubbies haven’t exactly dominated the National League over the span of this deal, but they did capture that elusive crown in 2016.

So does the World Series justify it? Eh … this isn’t as clean an analysis as the Gleyber Torres-for-Aroldis Chapman “you do what it takes!” situation. Heyward was terrible in 2016 and even worse in the postseason, when he contributed just five hits and a walk over fifty plate appearances.

There’s no two ways about it: the deal hasn’t worked out at all as hoped. Heyward has by all accounts worked hard and been a total class act, as ever. And he has trended back up with the bat, which is somewhat promising with regard to the final three seasons of the deal. But the net return to the Cubs — 7.1 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR — has not remotely justified the outlay.

Anybody that has watched the Chicago organization operate these past two winters can see the effects of this contractual miss. The Cubs have decided not to move past the luxury tax line, so every dollar going to Heyward has been another buck that couldn’t be allocated elsewhere. Of course, the Heyward whiff isn’t the only one that has stung in recent years, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently examined. And it’s worth emphasizing the he’s still just 30 years of age and still capable of contributing. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could even morph back into a quality regular. All things considered, this contract certainly didn’t single-handedly obstruct the Cubs’ dynasty-that-wasn’t … but it certainly played a leading role.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 NL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons

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MLBTR’s preseason series ends with National League West pitchers looking to bounce back in 2020. These 10 talented hurlers are hoping to get off the mat after difficult seasons…

Alex Wood, LHP, Dodgers:

The 29-year-old Wood is back in Los Angeles, where he experienced a great deal of success in 2015-18, after a Murphy’s Law season spent in Cincinnati. A back injury limited Wood to 35 2/3 innings of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP pitching last year after Cincinnati acquired him from Los Angeles expecting high-end production. Not unreasonable on the Reds’ part, as Wood had combined for a 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate in 803 1/3 innings as a Brave and Dodger from 2013-18. The Dodgers brought him back on a low-risk guarantee ($4MM) in the offseason. They may strike gold if Wood can stay healthy.

Blake Treinen, RHP, Dodgers:

Like his new teammate Wood, Treinen was excellent in the recent past before falling off a cliff last season. Just two years ago, Treinen – then an Athletic – turned in one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever had. But last year went awry for Treinen, who dealt with multiple injuries and logged subpar numbers. Treinen wound up with a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP and 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate over 58 2/3 innings. He lost his job as the A’s closer along the way, and they non-tendered him after the season. The hard-throwing Treinen landed on his feet, though, with a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers.

Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies:

The soft-tossing Freeland was an NL Cy Young candidate back in 2018, so no one could have expected such a miserable showing in 2019. As it turned out, though, Freeland struggled so mightily that the Rockies optioned him to Triple-A at one point in the season. In the majors, he ended up with a brutal 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP (compared to 2.85/3.67 the prior year) and 6.81 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 across 104 1/3 innings, averaging fewer than five frames per start along the way. The 26-year-old’s severe drop-off was among the reasons the Rockies went from playoff team in 2018 to bottom-feeding club last season.

Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies:

Speaking of stunning declines from members of Colorado’s pitching staff … Davis continued his descent in 2019. In the second season of a three-year, $52MM contract, the once-untouchable Davis recorded an abysmal 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP and walked more than six batters per nine over 42 2/3 innings. Davis also rated as one of Statcast’s worst pitchers, finishing toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and strikeout percentage, among other categories.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Giants:

Even though he only pitched 16 innings last season, it’s tough not to include Cueto on this list. The former ace is hoping for his first full season in a while, as injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2018) held him to a mere 216 1/3 innings over the previous three years. During his halcyon days, Cueto – now 34 – used to throw around that many innings in a single season. The Giants still owe Cueto $47MM through 2021, so a rebound effort would be all the more welcome for them.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Giants:

Gausman, whom the Giants added for $9MM in free agency, is in line to join Cueto in their rotation. The hope for the club is that he’ll fare much better than he did in 2019 – a disappointing season for a pitcher who has been consistently respectable. Gausman performed so poorly as a Brave that they placed him on outright waivers in August, but he did turn his season around as a strikeout-heavy reliever in Cincinnati. However, despite 10.03 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9, Gausman could only muster a 5.72 ERA (granted, with a much more encouraging 3.98 FIP) in 102 1/3 frames divided between the two teams.

Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants:

Rodriguez came out of nowhere to serve as one of the most effective rookies in the sport two years, but the dreaded sophomore slump took him down last season. The 27-year-old split 2019 between the Giants’ rotation and bullpen, registering a woeful 5.64 ERA/5.69 FIP (he was at 2.81/3.74 in 2018) in 99 innings. Rodriguez underwhelmed in the strikeout/walk department along the way, putting up 6.45 K/9 with 3.27 BB/9, and lost about a mile per hour on his low-90s fastball. Whether he’ll work more as a starter or reliever is in question heading into the new season, whenever it begins.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants:

The normally reliable Watson wasn’t quite himself in 2019, in which he tallied career worsts in ERA (4.17), FIP (4.81) and home runs per nine (1.5) through 54 innings. Watson walked just two per nine, and there were no dips in his velocity (93.5 mph) or swinging-strike percentage (12.7), yet he still slumped to the second-lowest K/9 (6.83) of his career. Surprisingly, same-handed hitters – whom he has usually contained – did the most damage against Watson, teeing off on him for a .391 wOBA. In other words, Watson turned the average lefty into Anthony Rizzo. The Giants are banking on a better showing from Watson in 2020, though, as they re-signed him for a $3MM guarantee during the winter.

Trevor Cahill, RHP, Giants:

Cahill is the fifth member of this Giants-heavy list, but this will be his first year with the club. He spent last year with the Angels, who signed him for $9MM after he revived his career with the Athletics as a starter during the previous season. However, Cahill couldn’t carry that renaissance into 2019; he instead spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and logged an ugly 5.98 ERA/6.13 FIP. Compared to 2018, Cahill struck out one fewer batter per nine (7.12 overall) and saw his groundball rate drop by almost 8 percent (45.9). He also yielded a whopping 2.2 homers per nine – up from a paltry .65 the prior season. Now, it remains to be seen whether Cahill will even crack the roster in San Francisco, which signed him to a minor league contract. If he does, it may be as a reliever.

Garrett Richards, RHP, Padres:

Richards has been quite valuable when he has taken the mound. The problem is that appearances from the oft-injured ex-Angel have been rare in recent seasons. He hasn’t even touched the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015, when he amassed a career-high 207 1/3. Richards totaled just 8 2/3 frames last season after returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2018. Of course, the Padres knew they’d get little from Richards in 2019 upon signing him to a two-year, $15.5MM pact. They’re hoping the investment pays dividends this season.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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A transformative offseason for the Red Sox saw the club trade its franchise player, make an unexpected managerial change, and (perhaps most importantly in ownership’s view?) duck under the luxury tax threshold.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

When Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Mookie Betts, and David Price were all taking turns hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in October 2018, it would’ve seemed inconceivable that all four men would no longer be members of the Red Sox organization just 15 months later.  And yet, it didn’t take long for the Sox to go from a 108-win World Series champion to a team suddenly facing a lot of questions.

Dombrowski was the first to depart, let go in early September amidst some reports suggesting Red Sox ownership considered firing him even a year prior.  As surprising as Dombrowski’s ouster was, Cora’s quick fall from grace was even more of a shock.  After the league’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing exploits during the 2017 season cited Cora (then the Astros’ bench coach) as a key author of how Houston’s system of video footage and trash can-banging was constructed, the Sox fired Cora before MLB could announce even what punishment the now-former Red Sox skipper would face.

Speaking of stolen signs, the Red Sox are still currently awaiting the results of Major League Baseball’s investigation into whether or not the Sox made inappropriate use of video footage to steal signs during their own World Series campaign in 2018.  While the Red Sox aren’t expected to be as punished as severely as the Astros were, it’s probably safe to assume that some type of penalty is forthcoming, perhaps in the form of a lost draft pick or two.

Needless to say, Chaim Bloom had a lot to deal with after being hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer in late October.  Bloom was already deep into offseason business before having to deal with an unforeseen managerial change, which could be one reason why the Sox chose to promote from within by naming bench coach Ron Roenicke as the interim manager.  Roenicke is a safe choice but hardly a bad one, as he is a known figure to Boston’s roster and had success in his only prior big league managerial stint with the Brewers from 2011-15.  If the Sox play well in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Roenicke become a longer-term answer in Boston’s dugout.

As a longtime member of the Rays front office, Bloom’s first offseason in total control of a baseball operations department resulted in something of a Tampa Bay-esque winter for the Sox.  It was an offseason of mostly low-cost signings and acquisitions, while moving a pair of expensive players in a trade that was driven largely by financial motivations.

Let’s start with the biggest blockbuster of the entire offseason: the Betts/Price trade with the Dodgers. What began as a three-team deal involving the Twins turned into another Los Angeles/Boston blockbuster after the Sox took issue with the medical records of Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, who was supposed to be the one of the young minor league centerpieces headed to Boston in the deal.  In the end, the three-team arrangement was broken down in to two separate deals, with Graterol ending up going to Los Angeles as part of the trade that sent Kenta Maeda to the Twins, and the Red Sox swinging a deal with the Dodgers that saw Betts, Price, and $48MM (covering half of Price’s contract) for three interesting young talents.

Jeter Downs immediately became the top prospect in Boston’s farm system and potential second baseman of the future, while catcher/infielder Connor Wong also gives the Red Sox a future option behind the plate or even as a multi-positional backup catcher.  Both of these youngsters could be on track for the big leagues as early as 2021, while outfielder Alex Verdugo is already coming off a strong performance (.294/.342/.475 in 377 PA) in 2019, his first extended stint against Major League pitching.  Verdugo is expected to take over for Betts in right field, perhaps as early as the new Opening Day, as the delayed start to the season will likely give him time to recover from a stress fracture in his lower back.

It’s not at all a bad prospect haul, yet it’s also one many Boston fans and media members found inconceivable, given that one of pro sports’ wealthiest franchises was surrendering one of the game’s best players in what seemed like more or less a salary dump.  Principal owner John Henry’s late-September statement that the 2020 Sox “need to be under” the Competitive Balance Tax threshold after two seasons of overages loomed large over each transaction Bloom made this winter, no matter how much Henry tried to downplay his original comments both before and after the Betts trade.  Boston’s luxury tax number now stands at just under $196MM, as per Roster Resource, below the $208MM luxury tax threshold and indeed putting the Red Sox in line to reset their tax bill to zero.

A third consecutive season of CBT overage would have cost the Sox a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM threshold, plus an additional 12 percent surtax if their luxury tax number stood within the secondary penalty range ($228MM-$248MM).  As well, the Red Sox would’ve received a 50 percent deduction in their cut of revenue-sharing rebates, as outlined by the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

As of mid-January, Boston’s luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $237.89MM, so that third-timer penalty rate wouldn’t have been an insignificant extra expenditure….yet considering the franchise’s vast resources, it’s also hard to consider it a truly significant expenditure either, considering the on-field value lost by removing Betts from the lineup.

With a bit more hindsight, the Sox could’ve given themselves more CBT breathing room had they non-tendered Jackie Bradley Jr. back in December, as their subsequent efforts to trade the center fielder ended up fruitless.  Perhaps the Red Sox could have re-signed Bradley for a lower amount than his $11MM salary, or perhaps just replaced him with Kevin Pillar (a comparable player) at a much lesser price.  An outfield of Betts, Pillar, and Andrew Benintendi clearly looks more imposing than Boston’s current alignment of Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, with Pillar as the fourth outfielder.

From a pure baseball perspective, Boston’s argument for trading Betts was that it made more sense to deal him now rather than risk letting him leave in free agency for nothing (save a qualifying offer compensation pick) next winter, or perhaps dealing him for a lesser package closer to the trade deadline if the Red Sox were out of the playoff race.  But, ownership has maintained all along that they intend the Sox to be contenders in 2020, and trading Betts and Price runs counter to that notion.

Going back to the hypothetical scenario I floated earlier, let’s pretend the Red Sox kept Price and Betts, non-tendered Bradley, and still signed Pillar and Mitch Moreland.  Let’s also assume a few more dollars are spent here and there over the course of the season to bring Boston’s tax number to $245MM.  That works out to a three-timer CBT bill just shy of $21MM, plus the approximately $6MM in lost revenue-sharing rebate money as calculated in Speier’s piece.

In essence, that makes the decision to trade Betts and Price a $27MM choice in terms of immediate money, plus the Red Sox get the peace of mind of knowing that they’re under the threshold now rather than having to perhaps scramble next winter to avoid a fourth year of CBT payments.  Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez are due for big arbitration raises next offseason, which would’ve counteracted some of the savings from having Moreland, Pillar, Perez, Workman, and still-with-the-Red Sox Betts all coming off the books.  (Plus, J.D. Martinez also has another opt-out decision at season’s end, so he might not be part of the 2021 roster.)

Is saving $27MM worth a much more difficult path back to the postseason?  Even with Betts and Price, obviously the Red Sox would’ve still faced a stiff test from their AL East rivals, plus more competition from the American League as a whole for wild card positions.  But, had the Sox not been in contention by the deadline this year, they could’ve traded some contracts to duck under the luxury tax anyway — or, had until the end of the 2021 season to figure out ways to avoid paying a penalty for a fourth straight season.

The Reds, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres were all reported to have interest in acquiring Price over the offseason, but since the Red Sox weren’t able to trade the left-hander (and enough of his $96MM contract) alone, they ultimately had to package Price together with Betts to finally swing a deal.  Figuring out a solo Price deal quite possibly could have kept Betts in a Sox uniform in 2020, though Price’s own departure has no small impact on Boston’s roster.

Martin Perez was signed prior to the Price trade, but he will essentially serve as a southpaw-for-southpaw replacement in the rotation.  Perez had a fairly hot start to his 2019 season with Minnesota but saw his productivity plummet beginning in late May.  As much as Bloom is optimistic about Perez’s untapped potential, the lefty has been a mid-rotation innings-eater even during the best of times during his eight MLB seasons.

While Price’s age and injury history also make him a question mark heading into 2020, his presence would’ve brought more stability to the pitching staff than the current mix.  Ostensible staff ace Chris Sale is battling elbow problems and could still potentially face some type of surgery, though he’s begun a throwing program, and the Sox are hoping the extra rest in the elongated offseason allows Sale time to heal without missing any games.  Rodriguez is coming off a strong year, but Nathan Eovaldi is coming off an injury-plagued season and a wide array of arms (or an opener) could end up filling that fifth rotation spot.  The newly-signed Collin McHugh is a bit of a wild card as a either a rotation or bullpen candidate, assuming McHugh (who was only cleared to throw in late February) is himself healthy after dealing with elbow injuries.

McHugh could ultimately make more of an impact to the relief corps, which didn’t get much attention despite an overall middle-of-the-road performance in 2019.  The Sox are hoping that a change in roles can help, as Brandon Workman’s emergence as the closer can add some clarity to the rest of the bullpen’s roles.  If openers do become a part of Boston’s rotation picture, there could be more mix-and-match than usual in the Red Sox pen, perhaps taking a page from how the Rays used their relievers under Bloom over the last couple of seasons.

Besides Price, the Red Sox said goodbye to another veteran starter this offseason when Rick Porcello signed a free agent contract with the Mets.  A pair of other recent roster staples also departed, as super-utilityman Brock Holt signed with the Brewers and backup catcher Sandy Leon was dealt to the Indians.  New signings Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy are competing for the backup catching job, while Jose Peraza will now somewhat replace Holt as a multi-position asset.  For now, Boston plans to use Peraza mostly as a second baseman, splitting time with Michael Chavis whenever Chavis isn’t filling in for Moreland at first base against left-handed pitching.  However, Peraza has experience at short and in the outfield, so he could move around in the event of injuries elsewhere on the roster.

2020 Season Outlook

We’ve gone this deep into the offseason review without really mentioning the three biggest reasons why the Red Sox could still contend for a wild card berth — Devers, Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, who form as tough of a 1-2-3 punch as any lineup trio in baseball.  That group of sluggers goes a long way towards propping up a lineup that has some uncertainty, but also a lot of potential in Christian Vazquez, Verdugo, Benintendi, Chavis, Peraza and Moreland.  Even pitching-wise, despite all the injury questions, the Sox certainly have talent on hand if Sale and Eovaldi can stay healthy and Rodriguez matches his 2019 form.

Simply running it back with Betts and Price on this roster would’ve been a perfectly respectable idea on paper, except that Red Sox ownership felt it was more prudent to take a step back to reload the farm system and take the opportunity to get what they felt was an untenable contract (Price) off the books.  Ideally, the Sox wouldn’t have had to trade Betts to make that work, though perhaps reading between the tea leaves, the club felt Betts wasn’t going to re-sign with with Boston anyway next winter, making him ultimately expendable as a trade chip rather than as a long-term asset.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Fenway faithful, who have a right to be annoyed that the same Red Sox ownership group who has okayed several big-money signings and extensions over the years now feel the “need to” (to use Henry’s words from September) enact some financial prudence, even if it meant trading Betts.  Time will tell if the decision ends up being wise, but the window of contention that looked so wide open after the 2018 season is now much narrower.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?  (Link for app users.)

Extension Candidates: NL Central

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote yesterday, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL Central …

Brewers

The Brew Crew already reached two deals this winter, both of which are quite interesting for very different reasons. The Milwaukee organization reached a big new extension (that still feels team-friendly) with superstar Christian Yelich. And it placed a upside bet on young hurler Freddy Peralta, whose ERA hasn’t quite yet matched his talent.

Scanning the rest of the roster, the name that jumps off the page is Josh Hader. True, he just lost an arbitration hearing to the team. But he’s still got a big $4.1MM starting point to build from for three more seasons and his salary could go wild if the Brewers keep him in the closer’s role. Perhaps there’s a path to a deal, even if it doesn’t expand the Brewers’ control rights past arbitration much (if at all).

Likelier, perhaps, are highly talented youngsters Keston Hiura and Brandon Woodruff. The former isn’t even close to arbitration but seems like an easy bet to keep hitting. The latter is a year away from Super Two qualification, so this might be the best opportunity to get him locked in at a palatable price. Given the aggressive stance the Brewers took in the Peralta deal, you can’t rule out negotiations with fellow hurlers Adrian Houser and Corbin Burnes.

Cardinals

The Cards are known to be interested in working something out with franchise pillar Yadier Molina. It’s pretty likely they’ll get a deal done at some point given the obvious mutual interest.

Of greater long-term intrigue is the situation of staff ace Jack Flaherty. But odds of an agreement seem long, particularly after the club renewed his contract at a rather meager rate this spring. Perhaps fellow starter Dakota Hudson is a likelier target. If the club gets creative in exploring deals with the staff, relievers Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia might be approached, though neither is terribly youthful.

Two years out from free agency, Kolten Wong is a conceivable but hardly pressing potential target. It’s more interesting to contemplate an early pact with emerging utilityman Tommy Edman. But most intriguing of all? A pre-debut pact with top prospect Dylan Carlson. That would free the club to promote him whenever it wishes and perhaps secure a potential new franchise star for his entire prime.

Cubs

If you can’t trade ’em, extend ’em? Perhaps not in all cases, but the Cubs have a lot of quality players that could be targeted for extensions — now that the team has elected not to deal them over the winter and likely won’t have a chance to revisit its decision in the middle of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber could in theory all fall in this bucket.

The likeliest candidate, though, is shortstop Javier Baez. He was never really on the block, so far as anyone knows, and there’s clearly mutual interest in a deal. Baez is two years from free agency but already well into bigger earnings via arbitration. Talks have been up and down thus far.

Otherwise, the Cubbies could explore ways of locking in lower prices on non-stars for the foreseeable future. What if — and believe me, this is a hypothetical — but what if the team saw some value in the right arrangement with a younger, less-established player? The most interesting possibilities: infielder Nico Hoerner, backstop Victor Caratini, and center fielder (for the time being, anyway) Ian Happ. Having already done a deal with David Bote, this sort of possibility can’t be ruled out.

Pirates

Thankfully, in this case the team has more or less provided its own list (through unnamed sources that spoke with reporters). Younger big leaguers Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, and Joe Musgrove are all said to be of interest, as is top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes. Now that we know talks have been initiated, it’s a matter of seeing if anything gets done.

Notably absent from that group? Slugging first baseman Josh Bell. The 27-year-old is in his first season of arbitration eligibility after a big 2019 season. The absence of reporting doesn’t necessarily mean that Bell isn’t of interest, though he may be a bit spendy for the Bucs to commit to.

Beyond that, it gets pretty speculative. The Pirates have big hopes for high-upside youngsters Mitch Keller and Oneil Cruz, but probably want to see them develop more before thinking about a long-term contract.

Reds

The Cincinnati ballclub has made a host of interesting moves of late. But there’s still potential for greater contractual action with regard to a few in-house players.

Excellent right-hander Luis Castillo is easily the top target. He’s in classic starting pitcher extension territory as a 2+ service-class player with two full seasons of increasingly productive moundwork. The team can surely envision quite a lot of upside and he has some real incentive to dodge the risk of another MLB campaign before getting paid.

Perhaps there’s also an argument for considering talks with lefty Amir Garrett or reliever/pinch-hitter/CF Michael Lorenzen. If teams can strike deals with pitchers like Peralta and Aaron Bummer, then these guys can’t be ruled out.

It’s awfully intriguing to think about a deal for everywhere-but-nowhere man Nick Senzel. But his precise place in this organization has yet to be determined. While the team would probably buy in at the right price, he’s probably not going to sell himself short and buy into an uncertain situation. There are a few other conceivable candidates on this roster — outfielder Jesse Winker; starter Anthony DeSclafani — but it’s quite a bit harder to see a path to a mutually agreeable deal in those cases.

6 NL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series focusing on notable hitters and pitchers hoping to rebound from less-than-ideal 2019 outings wraps up in the National League West. We’ll start with six hitters who enjoyed productive 2018 campaigns before falling short last season…

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres:

By no means did the 27-year-old Machado perform poorly in 2019, his first season as a Padre. He just didn’t offer the type of production the team likely expected when it signed him to a then-record free-agent contract worth $300MM over 10 years. Whereas the four-time All-Star thrived with the Orioles and Dodgers the year before he joined the Friars, he has been more good than great in San Diego so far. Across 661 trips to the plate last season, Machado batted .256/.334/.462 – enough for a 108 wRC+ (he was at 131 in 2018). He did mash 32 home runs and finish in the majors’ 87th percentile in average exit velocity, but Machado struck out in nearly 5 percent more plate appearances compared to 2018. Furthermore, according to Statcast, Machado’s hard-hit percentage fell by just over 4 percent.

Jurickson Profar, 2B, Padres:

The former can’t-miss prospect finally looked to be turning a corner at the major league level in 2018, his last year with the Rangers. Unfortunately, though, Profar’s output tanked in his lone season with the Athletics in 2019. The 27-year-old switch-hitter could only muster a .218/.301/.410 line (89 wRC+) and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA, and Statcast rated him near the bottom of the league in several important metrics. As a second baseman, Profar garnered all negative reviews (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3 Outs Above Average, minus-1 Ultimate Zone Rating). Still, the Padres are taking a chance on a bounce-back year for Profar, whom they acquired in a winter trade. The move reunited him with ex-Rangers executive and current Padres general manager A.J. Preller.

David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:

Peralta had a terrific year in 2018, smacking 31 home runs and accounting for 3.9 fWAR, but a nagging right shoulder injury prevented him from a proper encore last season. The 32-year-old wound up with just 12 homers in 423 plate appearances, in which he registered an overall line barely above average (.275/.343/.461 – good for a 107 wRC+), saw his isolated power number fall by 37 points and his expected weighted on-base average plummet by 49 points. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are giving Peralta the benefit of the doubt, evidenced by the two-year, $22MM extension they handed him in January.

Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants:

Crawford entered last year with six straight seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR, but he dropped to 0.4 in that category in 2019. Crawford hit just .228/.304/.350 (74 wRC+) in 560 PA, and even his well-regarded defense declined. For the first time in his career, the 33-year-old graded negatively in both DRS (minus-4) and UZR (minus-0.4). Not reassuring for the Giants, who still owe Crawford $30MM through 2021.

Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers:

The versatile Hernandez was quite effective in 2018, during which he posted 3.2 fWAR, but that number checked in at a far less impressive 1.2 last season. The problem? A massive decline in offensive production. Hernandez’s wRC+ (88) represented a 30-point fall, while his OPS (.715; .237/.304/.411) lost 91 points. It didn’t help that Hernandez endured a 4-plus percent increase in strikeouts and a 3 percent decrease in walks.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies:

Count Murphy as another recent free-agent signing gone awry for the Rockies, who inked him to a two-year, $24MM contract in December 2019. Year 1, perhaps the weakest offensive season of his career, couldn’t have gone much worse for Murphy. The 34-year-old ’s .279/.328/.452 line doesn’t look terrible on paper, but when adjusted for ballpark, it only amounted to a wRC+ of 86. Murphy also had a miserable season in terms of Statcast output and recorded a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) for the first time ever.

Breakout Candidate: Dinelson Lamet

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Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet may not be among Major League Baseball’s household names yet, but it could be only a matter of time before he joins those ranks. While Lamet hasn’t come close to preventing runs at an elite clip since he made his MLB debut in 2017, he has shown flashes that suggest a true breakout may not be out of the question.

Now 27 years old, Lamet caught on with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. The franchise brought in Lamet, then 21, for $100K two years after a deal with the Phillies fell through. San Diego has since benefited from that fairly low-risk move.

After ascending through the minors, where he didn’t garner a significant amount of Triple-A experience, Lamet showed off a tantalizing fastball-slider mix during his first taste of MLB action three years ago. He wound up making 21 starts and tossing 114 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA/4.35 FIP ball with 10.94 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

The hope, of course, was that Lamet would build on his respectable first-year effort the next season. Instead, though, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in April 2018. The procedure cost Lamet that entire year and the majority of his last season, but he enjoyed an extremely promising showing after returning July 4.

Lamet shook off the rust with 14 starts and 73 frames of 4.07 ERA/3.91 FIP pitching. Those run prevention totals may not look sensational, but a deeper dive gives reason to believe that Lamet will continue his rise. Not only did Lamet cut his walk rate (3.7 per nine), but his strikeout rate rose to a jaw-dropping 12.95. Among 146 starters who threw at least 70 innings, Lamet ranked behind only Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale in K/9. His strikeout percentage (33.6) trailed just Cole, Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger. The other members of the top 10? Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray. With the exceptions of Lamet and Ray (a solid starter in his own right), there isn’t a single pitcher there who’s not a front-line option.

Adding to the good news, Lamet was something of a Statcast hero during his abbreviated 2019. Take a look at where he ranked in these categories…

  • Hard-hit rate: 69th percentile
  • Expected weighted on-base average: 71st percentile
  • Average exit velocity: 77th percentile
  • Curve spin: 79th percentile
  • Fastball spin: 81st percentile
  • Average fastball velocity: 89th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 93rd percentile

Well above average across the board. Lamet got there owing in part to an increase in velo (his average fastball reached 96.1 mph) and a slider that, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values, was among the most dominant offerings of its kind. As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explained last August, Lamet was benefiting at the time from adding a second slider to his repertoire.

Lamet’s repertoire may have him on the cusp of busting out, though he’ll have to get the home runs under control. Granted, last season was a homer-happy year across baseball, but Lamet’s HR-to-fly ball percentage (19.7) was still bloated compared to most starters’. And that’s not going to work for someone who has induced grounders at a paltry 36.8 percent rate since he first set foot in the majors.

Aside from a need to cut down on HRs moving forward, Lamet also must show he can continue to stay healthy. That’s obviously not always easy for any hurler, let alone one with such a serious surgery in his past. But if Lamet can hold up, the Padres may have a potential breakout starter on their hands. That would be all the more welcome for a team that already has Chris Paddack fronting its rotation with MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino among its prospects getting closer to the bigs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidates: NL East

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote earlier today, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. Here are some names to chew on from the NL East …

Braves

We all love Freddie Freeman and so do the Braves. He’s now within two years of free agency … but he’s also already 30 years of age. Knowing how this organization operates, it’d be a bit of a surprise to see it go big to keep him around. At the same time, this might be the best window to do so.

It’s likelier that the team will look into deals with young players after scoring huge value in deals with Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last winter. The most obvious candidate is excellent youngster Mike Soroka, but there’s an argument for fellow starter Max Fried. Both are likely Super Two arbitration qualifiers next winter, so this could be a good time to achieve value. Mike Foltynewicz has some potential appeal despite his ups and downs, but he’s already earning big arb money and is just two years from the open market, so it’s tougher to see a deal that’d make sense for both sides. Perhaps there’s a scenario where a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson makes sense, but he may still want to wait for an offensive surge that the team won’t pay for on spec.

In terms of more creative possibilities … none of the Braves’ relievers seem particularly likely. If the team is particularly smitten with Austin Riley and/or Kyle Wright, despite some early stumbles, it could chase the upside. Among the pre-MLB players, outfielder Cristian Pache seems the likeliest (highly speculative) possibility. He’s already on the 40-man roster, unlike fellow outfielder Drew Waters and pitcher Ian Anderson.

Marlins

There are a few fairly classic extension targets in Miami. Quality third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson makes sense. Perhaps the team could make a run at backstop Jorge Alfaro if it believes in him. Both of those guys are 2+ service-class players, so they’ve got another year to wait for arbitration.

The same is true of interesting hurler Caleb Smith. Even less-experienced Miami starters could also be targeted, with Sandy Alcantara and perhaps Jordan Yamamoto representing interesting candidates.

There’s an argument to be made that the Marlins ought to consider some even bolder action. Their top position-player prospects — outfielder Monte Harrison and shortstop Jazz Chisholm — are each already on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn’t be any complications to locking them up. Risky? Sure, but the potential rewards are enormous. And they wouldn’t necessarily have to open the year on the MLB roster.

Mets

Pete Alonso stands out here. The lovable longball launcher may only be one season into his MLB career, but he has all the markings of a franchise face and community cornerstone. The team is obviously as smitten as are the fans, as it not only brought him up to open the 2019 season (rather than messing with his service time) but made him happy with a record sophomore salary.

There are some other conceivable position-player targets as well. Fellow breakout star Jeff McNeil is certainly of interest, though he’s already close to his 28th birthday and is under team control through his age-32 season. Pre-arb shortstop Amed Rosario could make sense after making strides in his second full season in the majors. The Mets obviously like J.D. Davis, though it probably makes sense to see if he keeps hitting and how the team’s needs develop with plenty of time before he’s a free agent. (Like McNeil, he’s under team control through 2024.)

There are also some candidates for new deals that are closer to free agency. It’s tough to imagine a deal with Noah Syndergaard given the ups and downs in the relationship and his sky-high ceiling; he’d surely require a monster payday to keep. But New York native Marcus Stroman seems cosy in his home city and might be amenable to a deal. As a walk-year player he’ll be seeking something like full market value. Outfielders Michael Conforto (4+ service class) and Brandon Nimmo (3+ service class) are certainly good enough players to approach. Want a bit of a wild card? How about righty Seth Lugo, who has turned into a heckuva reliever.

Nationals

The Nats’ situation is fairly simple to understand. The club has some glaringly obvious candidates, but it’s largely unknown whether it has attempted to start talks and (if so) whether it has any hopes of making a deal.

Juan Soto is the crown jewel. But he’s an exceptionally youthful superstar represented by Scott Boras. That’ll make it tough to get a deal done … especially if this eye-popping report is to be believed. Fellow outfielder Victor Robles isn’t as established or as certain, but perhaps there’s greater room there for the sides to find common ground.

Shortstop Trea Turner is the other most-obvious candidate. He’s 26 years of age and three full seasons from free agency. A high-quality all-around player who gamely battled through an injury, Turner could certainly be approached. He’s into arbitration with a big salary, though, so he has leverage. The Nats aren’t afraid to pay for quality, so it’s possible to imagine an agreement.

On the pitching front, there aren’t any rising young arms that seem primed for a deal. But with Max Scherzer two years from the open market … well, who knows? He is already 35 years of age, but perhaps the sides could line up on something that keeps the highly productive relationship going. After a challenging 2019 season, it’s likely that closer Sean Doolittle will be allowed to prove he’s still a top-flight reliever before getting his next deal, but talks can’t be ruled out.

Phillies

I don’t need to tell you the chief target for the Phils: it’s catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now one season shy of free agency. The sides ended up in an arbitration hearing after failing to agree on a 2020 salary. While they say there aren’t any hard feelings, Realmuto — who’s 29 tomorrow — has also made clear he’s not interested in taking a team-friendly arrangement. We might’ve spent more time talking about first baseman Rhys Hoskins as a candidate, but that seems unlikely after his late-2019 swoon.

This is an organization that has proven willing to do a pre-MLB deal, having previously inked Scott Kingery. Top third base prospect Alec Bohm makes some sense, but only if the team is committed to bringing him up early (if not at the start of) the season. He doesn’t have a 40-man roster spot just yet. Top pitching prospect Adonis Medina does, but it’d be rather speculative to lock into him at this point.

What Happens To Extension Talks During The Coronavirus Hiatus?

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For the time being, MLB rosters are not locked. There’s still a trickle of transactional news. Odds are, we’ll see some sort of agreement to freeze roster movement — including, presumably, an orderly process for tying up any pending decisions and then ramping back up in advance of a hopeful resumption of play. Once that’s sorted, there could be a flurry of moves before the hold goes into effect.

But really, that’s beside the point when it comes to extensions. Deals can be negotiated at any time, even if it’s necessary to wait to make them official. Even if there’s a halt to transactions for a stretch, teams and agents and players can talk about their futures.

It’s hardly an optimal time to be broadcasting a major new contract, for a variety of reasons. But we are seeing NFL dealmaking happen as if the football season will begin as normal. And it probably behooves us all to keep one eye on the future.

In the baseball context, the major free agent action was already completed — Yasiel Puig excepted. But we were right smack dab in the middle of extension season when the coronavirus crisis hit. And there was some indication that, on the heels of a robust free agent market, we were due for a varied and voluminous slate of new deals.

In some respects, it’s the close in-person proximity of Spring Training that makes extensions so prevalent. But it’s also a function of MLB’s calendar, most of the rest of which is occupied by the playing of games or execution of other business.

Under the present circumstances, there’s quite a strong case for utilizing the time off to consider longer pacts. The time pressure of the coming season has been released momentarily, but it’ll eventually ramp back up and help finalize talks. But whatever truncated second spring ultimate occurs later this year isn’t likely to represent an optimal time for long-term negotiations. Teams will be slammed with season preparations and unusual logistical demands.

If there’s to be another run of new deals, it’ll likely emerge from prior talks that continue during the present lull, even absent the ready ability to chat face-to-face. But the halt to sports also injects potentially massive uncertainty that could itself impact negotiations. Players’ 2020 salaries are already set, but they’re presumably not going to be paid out in full. Some players may be more inclined to secure their financial futures; some teams may wish to avoid long-fuse risks while looking ahead to clogged revenue streams.

No doubt the onset of the coronavirus shutdown halted many negotiations in mid-stream. Perhaps some deals were already reached in principle before the league went on ice. In all periods of uncertainty, there’s added risk and added opportunity. It will be interesting to see how players and teams approach extensions over the coming months — whether or not a moratorium on formal dealmaking forces us to wait for the outcomes.

 

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?

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It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.

Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.

Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.

Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.

It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).

Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?

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