Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By | at

The AL East champions will have to rebuild their pitching staff this winter, though their first priority will be sorting out an unexpected front office shuffle.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The afterglow of the Blue Jays’ first postseason appearance since 1993 quickly wore off with the stunning news that Alex Anthopoulos wouldn’t be returning as Toronto’s general manager.  It was more or less expected that the Jays’ playoff run would ensure a new contract for Anthopoulos, but since that proposed extension reportedly gave the final decision-making authority to new club president/CEO Mark Shapiro, Anthopoulos said he “didn’t feel like this was the right fit” for him and walked away from the job.

Anthopoulos’ departure reportedly came as a surprise to both Shapiro and Rogers Communications (the club’s ownership group), though the Jays’ interest in a president with a baseball operations background was evident even a year ago during their flirtations with the likes of Dan Duquette and Kenny Williams.  This implied that Anthopoulos was no longer Rogers’ choice to be the top baseball voice in the organization, so expecting him to accept a loss of autonomy in the wake of a division title may have been a bit naive on ownership’s part.  If Anthopoulos’ decision truly caught the club off-guard, then the Jays are somewhat under the gun in beginning a GM search just as offseason business is getting underway.

Naming Tony LaCava as the interim general manager (and extending his contract) does ensure some continuity within the front office, and LaCava himself could be a fit as the permanent GM.  He has been a long-time assistant GM in Toronto, he briefly worked with Shapiro in Cleveland’s front office and he has been considered for GM jobs with other teams (the Pirates, Angels, Dodgers and Orioles) in the past.  Current and former members of the Indians front office like Ross Atkins, Derek Falvey, De Jon Watson, Josh Byrnes and Tyrone Brooks have been mentioned as possible candidates for the GM position, though everything seems speculative at this point.

This organizational drama has added another layer of intrigue into what was already going to be a very busy offseason for the Jays.  The most clear-cut business has already been taken care of, as the Jays exercised their club options on Jose Bautista ($14MM), R.A. Dickey ($12MM) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10MM) for 2016.  A combined $36MM is a more-than-reasonable price for two elite sluggers and a solid 200+ inning starter.

The next step for the Jays will be to explore extending Bautista and Encarnacion, which will be very interesting negotiations.  The two men are entering their respective age-35 and age-33 seasons and Bautista’s defense has been falling off to the point that he could soon be best suited as a mostly-DH type, as Encarnacion is now.  Extending any player into their late 30’s is a dicey proposition, and extending two such players could be especially risky.  The counter argument, of course, is that Bautista and Encarnacion are still two of the game’s best hitters, both posting big numbers in 2015 despite battling some nagging injuries.  While the Jays could wait to see if either declines next season, waiting also carries the risk of letting either slugger hit the open market on the heels of another big performance.  The Bautista and Encarnacion talks will be a big subplot of this Blue Jays offseason, particularly if the team favors one over the other.

With these contract option years now officially on the books, Toronto is committed to $71MM for five players next season.  The Jays will pay a projected $33MM to their nine-player arbitration class, with Josh Donaldson getting the biggest raise (from $4.3MM in 2015 to $12MM in 2016) in the wake of his MVP-caliber season.  Important contributors like Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna, Chris Colabello, Kevin Pillar and Aaron Sanchez are still on their pre-arb contracts, which gives the team a bit of financial breathing room as it tries to figure out how much to spend on the pitching staff.

While nine-figure payrolls aren’t new for the Jays, it has yet to be determined just how much they’re willing to spend this winter.  Last year’s Opening Day payroll was just under $126MM and that number went up during the year after their big deadline trading spree.  It’s fair to assume that Shapiro and LaCava will have at least that $126MM figure to work with in the offseason.  While it has been speculated that Rogers hired Shapiro in part because of his experience with modest payrolls in Cleveland, Shapiro wasn’t afraid to make notable signings (the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn deals) and extensions (i.e. Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta) in his time as the Tribe’s GM and president.

It could also be that Shapiro will receive more financial leeway than Anthopoulos.  The Jays were heavily criticized by fans and local media for making virtually no major moves between the Dickey trade in December 2012 and the Donaldson trade in November 2014, and in hindsight, that seeming transactions freeze could’ve been the first sign of ownership disenchantment with Anthopoulos in the wake of the disastrous 2013 season, rather than a sign that Rogers wasn’t willing to spend.  Given how attendance and TV ratings skyrocketed from August through October, Rogers now has clear evidence that a winning team will be a huge boost to revenue.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the club is willing to spend the $200MM+ it will take to sign David Price to a new deal this winter.  Price has been vocal about how much he enjoyed pitching in Toronto, though with teams such as the Dodgers and Cubs likely in the running for Price’s services, it would be a surprise to see the Jays win a bidding war.  Russell Martin’s $82MM contract from last winter was the biggest free agent deal in franchise history while Vernon Wells’ $126MM deal from 2006 is still the largest overall contract the Jays have ever handed out; the team would likely have to spend as much as those two deals combined, if not more, to retain Price.

Besides Price, Marco Estrada and the possibly (but not certainly) retiring Mark Buehrle are also hitting the open market.  Estrada’s strong performance in both the regular season and postseason boosted his price tag, and the Jays could well re-sign him if that price is around three years and $30MM.  If it goes much higher, I suspect the Blue Jays would be willing to let him walk — especially since they would receive a draft pick in return, as Estrada was issued a qualifying offer.  The two sides are in the midst of discussing a multi-year deal right now, though there have been no indications that a deal is close.

As for Buehrle, he’s been leaning towards retirement for a while.  If he did come back, it might be on a one-year farewell tour type of deal with his hometown Cardinals or a return to the White Sox, rather than re-signing with the Jays.

Right now the Jays’ rotation consists of rising star Stroman, Dickey, and Drew Hutchison (whose inconsistent 2015 season makes him only a fifth starter candidate at best).  One of the two open spots could be filled internally by Osuna or Sanchez, and the latter is the likelier pick since he’d be easier to stretch out.  Sanchez was originally intended to be a reliever last spring, then became a starter in the wake of Stroman’s injury. He struggled prior to a lat injury (5.21 FIP, 42-to-37 K/BB ratio in 66 innings) but returned to thrive in a relief role.  It’s possible that a full spring of preparing solely to start will lead to better results for Sanchez, who’s just a year removed from being labeled one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.

Shifting either Sanchez or Osuna to the rotation is a risky move for a contender, however, as both are unproven as MLB starters and using either to start weakens the bullpen.  Osuna’s transition from A-ball starter in 2014 to star Major League closer in 2015 was already unlikely enough that the Jays may not want to further press their luck by pushing Osuna any further.  His 78 combined IP in the regular season and playoffs last season was a career high, so he’d certainly be on an innings limit as a starter. Thus, the Jays would need a replacement for the latter portion of the season.

Everything therefore seems to point to the Jays adding at least one notable front-of-the-rotation arm and quite possibly a mid-tier starter as well.  There’s no shortage of aces in free agency, and the Jays might not mind losing a first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent since they’d be getting back a comparable draft pick back if Estrada leaves, and their current pick (No. 26) is toward the end of the first round as it is.  Aiming for free agency, however, will test how much the team is willing or able to spend.  The Jays have been linked to Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija in the past, though that was under Anthopoulos.  Shapiro and LaCava may have different opinions of how well either starter would fare in Toronto, especially on an expensive long-term deal.

Rather than free agency, the Blue Jays could acquire pitching via the trade market.  Shapiro has denied a report claiming he directly criticized Anthopoulos for moving top prospects at the deadline, though it would still be somewhat surprising to see the Jays continue to deal youngsters since building from within is Shapiro’s stated preference.  Dealing from the Major League roster, however, could address both the pitching staff and a couple of question marks around the diamond.

Left field, for instance, has Ben Revere as the incumbent and set to earn a $6.7MM salary through arbitration.  This could be a bit high for the Jays’ liking since Revere is a somewhat limited offensive player and has mixed reviews over his career (as per advanced metrics) as a left fielder.  The Jays could try to deal Revere as part of a package for a starter and then go with a Michael Saunders/Dalton Pompey platoon in left.  Then again, Saunders could himself be a trade or even a non-tender candidate given his $2.9MM arbitration projection.  Dealing him for value could be difficult since he barely played in 2015 due to knee injuries.  Pompey isn’t likely to be traded given his high prospect pedigree, though counting on him for anything more than a part-time role is a risk given how he looked overmatched at the plate when he began last season as the starting center fielder and was eventually demoted.

First base could be another position of depth.  Encarnacion will mostly be used as a DH, leaving Colabello and Justin Smoak splitting time at first.  Colabello was a hugely successful under-the-radar signing last winter, giving the Jays an .886 OPS in 360 PA.  Colabello is still a year away from arbitration eligibility which could make him a very attractive trade chip, especially if the Jays think he’ll come back to earth next season (given that he did post a stunningly high .411 BABIP).  Smoak, meanwhile, hit .226/.299/.470 with 18 homers in 328 PA while providing solid defense.  The switch-hitter is an ideal backup for whomever is getting the lion’s share of time at first, whether it’s Colabello or a new addition.

This is just my speculation, but Shapiro’s former team in Cleveland is one of the few that has high-quality, controllable arms potentially available this winter.  The Jays actually came close to landing Carlos Carrasco at the trade deadline for a package of Pompey, Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, so it’s possible Shapiro could revisit those talks from the other side of the table to pursue Carrasco or Danny Salazar.  (Though of course, a new offer would have to be made since Hoffman and Norris have since been dealt.)

You can also make the case that the Blue Jays could just stand pat with their everyday regulars given how the team turned into world-beaters on both offense and defense once their final lineup was solidified at the deadline.  Given how injuries really left the Jays short-handed in early 2015, keeping the outfield and first base surplus intact could be a wise move, as a number of veterans in the lineup already come with notable injury histories.  Devon Travis’ return theoretically makes Ryan Goins expendable, though Goins is perhaps too valuable a bench piece to deal — he provides tremendous defense at either middle infield spot, which comes in handy since it’s far from guaranteed that Travis or Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy all year.

For now, Toronto’s bench lines up as Goins, Smoak, at least one of Saunders or Pompey and then Josh Thole (the knuckler-catching specialist for Dickey) as the backup catcher.  Dioner Navarro did a good job in the backup role last year, though he’s expected to depart for a team that can offer him more playing time.

The bullpen was a problem area for much of the year, seemingly rounding into form around the deadline, but injuries in the playoffs exposed the lack of depth.  If Sanchez is moved into the rotation, the Jays will need a new reliever to set up Osuna.  Brett Cecil pitched very well last season and could do the job, though he could be better deployed outside of a set role and used in high-leverage situations (particularly against left-handed hitters) whenever they may arise in the later innings.  Aaron Loup had solid numbers against lefty bats strictly in a LOOGY role, though the Blue Jays will probably look to bolster their bullpen southpaw corps.  Free agent Tony Sipp could be a possibility if Shapiro wanted to bring in a familiar face from his Cleveland days.

LaTroy Hawkins is retiring and Mark Lowe is a free agent, so the Jays will also need some help on the right-handed side of the bullpen ledger.  Darren O’Day, Tyler Clippard and Shawn Kelley are some of the bigger names available in free agency, though it’s worth noting that Shapiro has never pursued notable free agent reliever signings when he ran the Tribe.  Rather than spend on a righty reliever, the Blue Jays could just keep Sanchez in the bullpen for another year (with an eye to him replacing Dickey in the 2017 rotation), sign a low-cost right-hander and funnel all available money towards the rotation.

Toronto has enough clear areas of need on the roster that it’s obvious what will be targeted no matter who takes over as the full-time general manager (Shapiro will ultimately be calling the shots anyway).  The Jays certainly have work to do on the pitching front, but with so much of their league-best offense likely returning, the club has expectations of another postseason run in 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By | at

The future is now for the Astros, as they’ll be looking to continue their winning ways and return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jed Lowrie, IF: $15MM through 2017 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2018)
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $12.5MM through 2017
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: $9MM through 2016
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $8MM through 2017 (plus club options for 2018-19)
  • Scott Feldman, SP: $8MM through 2016
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $7MM through 2016 (includes $500K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2017)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $6.5MM through 2018 (includes $500K buyout of $2.5MM club option for 2019; club also has options for 2020-21)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Jeff Luhnow’s extensive (and sometimes controversial) rebuild of the Astros began to pay dividends a bit earlier than expected, as most pundits figured the young club was still a year or two away when the 2015 season began.  For Houston fans suffering through years of losing baseball, however, the successes of 2015 couldn’t have come soon enough.  The Astros led the AL West for much of the season, and while a September swoon cost them the division, they still beat the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game and took the Royals to the full five games in their ALDS matchup.

The Astros weren’t afraid to spend some money last winter in order to upgrade their bullpen, lineup and rotation, nor did they shy away from dealing notable prospects like Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana in their big midseason deal for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers.  Now that they’ve established themselves as a playoff threat, the next step will be to see how much more owner Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll and whether or not Luhnow will sacrifice any more of his vast prospect capital in order to enhance the Major League roster.

Just under $43MM is committed to seven players on the 2016 Astros, and another $31MM is projected to go to nine arbitration-eligible players (though it’s no guarantee all will be tendered, as I’ll explore later).  That adds up to $74MM for 16 players, which is already more than the $72.64MM the Astros spent on their last Opening Day roster.  The payroll has gradually risen from a measly $26MM in 2013 to roughly $50.5MM in 2014 to last year’s total, so it seems like a boost into the $95-$100MM range could be coming this winter.  Crane has repeatedly stated that Luhnow will have more funding available as the team’s development warrants, so if the team is contending again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros pass the $100MM threshold if it means securing a player to help them make a deeper postseason run.

With so much young talent both on the Major League roster and developing down on the farm, it stands to reason that the Astros won’t be a one-year wonder.  For starters, Houston’s lineup will be improved simply by getting an entire year of rookie sensation Carlos Correa and healthy full seasons from Gomez and George Springer.  Gomez is entering the last year of his contract, so he’ll be lined up for a major free agent deal next winter if he gets back to his past All-Star form.

Correa, Springer, Gomez and Jose Altuve form the core of Houston’s lineup, though the Astros have several questions to be answered elsewhere around the diamond.  For one, those four are all right-handed hitters, so the Astros have a distinct need to add lineup balance in the form of at least one notable left-handed bat.  Several regulars are arbitration-eligible, and the team could consider not tendering contracts to some familiar names in order to free some money for bigger upgrades.

Third baseman Luis Valbuena, first baseman Chris Carter and DH Evan Gattis are all cut from the same cloth as low-average, low-OBP sluggers who provided pop in the form of a combined 76 homers.  While their overall arbitration price of $14.8MM isn’t exorbitant, three players with the same limited skill set could be seen as a redundancy for a contending team.  Valbuena is the most likely to stay, as he’s currently the most notable left-handed bat on the roster and can be platooned with Jed Lowrie.  Valbuena is also a free agent after 2016, with prospect Colin Moran on track to get at least a share of the job by 2017.

Though Carter and Gattis are hard to replace from a power standpoint, it wouldn’t be too hard for Houston to find players to top their combined 0.3 fWAR in 2015.  The Astros will pursue trades for both before the tendering deadline, and my guess is that if it came down to a non-tender decision, they’d keep the longer-tenured Carter and let Gattis go.  Even if Houston tenders one or both, however, I’d suspect both would still be shopped during the rest of the offseason.  You could even make a case that the ’Stros could non-tender both sluggers in order to really shake things up, but that’s an unlikely move given how Carter boosted his trade value with a late surge in September and through the playoffs.

If Carter, Gattis or both are gone, who takes over at first or DH?  Prospect A.J. Reed dominated high-A and Double-A pitching last season and will compete for a roster spot in Spring Training, though it might be too early to count on him since he’s yet to play a game at the Triple-A level.  You’ll likely see him hit the bigs sometime in 2016, however.  The Astros won’t yet give up on former top prospect Jon Singleton due to his young age (24) and long-term contract, though Singleton has done little in 420 career PA to prove that he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a contending team, let alone regular playing time. Former 33rd-rounder Tyler White is another option after his monster season split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The non-tender question can also be asked about the catcher’s job, though my guess is that the Astros stick with the Jason Castro/Hank Conger tandem.  The team loves Castro’s defense, relationship with the pitching staff and clubhouse leadership role, while Conger also had good pitch-framing numbers and hit .229/.311/.448 with 11 homers over 229 PA.  Houston has been cited as a possible destination for Matt Wieters, who is an upgrade on paper.  Given the question marks about his injury history and the lack of any other distinct better options on the open market, the Astros might feel more comfortable to keep their familiar catching platoon and spend elsewhere.

Left field is the only clear hole in the lineup as Colby Rasmus will hit free agency after nicely rebuilding his value with a solid regular season and a Ruthian postseason.  The Astros have young options to play left field next season, as a Preston Tucker/Jake Marisnick platoon is probably the top alternative if Rasmus or another everyday regular can’t be obtained.  This said, it wouldn’t be a shock if Rasmus re-signed since he enjoyed his time with the club and at least sounds open to returning.  (Not to mention that Rasmus is a left-handed hitter.)

If he still intends to retire within a few seasons, Rasmus has a case for becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  Rasmus could take the one-year, $15.8MM deal to remain in a familiar spot for another season, as while he’d obviously make far more money in a multi-year contract, he might not want to risk being in another uncomfortable clubhouse situation for what could be the final few years of his career.  (Jeff Todd and Steve Adams recently raised this point on the MLBTR Podcast.)  Houston seems comfortable with the idea of Rasmus accepting.  Retaining a short-term established player, after all, fits with the Astros’ long-term outfield plans with prospects Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher all on the horizon, as well as Tucker and Marisnick in the fold right now.  It’s probably still likely that Rasmus rejects the QO, but he at least has a few more layers to his decision than most.

Luhnow faces an interesting juggling act in adding players to help his team win now, yet also still maintaining and relying on the youth movement that the Astros worked so hard to build.  Top-tier free agents like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon would more than fill the club’s need in left field, though that would represent one less spot for Cameron and company in a few years’ time.  (Center field could well be open if Gomez leaves, though Springer is surely ticketed as a long-term piece.)  Of the top names, Gordon may be the best fit for Houston given that he’s a left-handed hitter, and also because the analytically-minded Astros are the sort of team that would particularly appreciate how Gordon can contribute in all facets of the game.

The same “now vs. the future” debate could be had about first base.  With Reed’s big bat looming, do the Astros need a big upgrade like Chris Davis or could they acquire a short-term veteran bat like Justin Morneau to platoon with Carter/Gattis until Reed arrives?  Davis checks a lot of boxes as an ideal signing for the Astros — he’s a Texas native, a left-handed hitter and brings even more power than Carter or Gattis while providing a much better all-around game.  Davis can contribute from day one while Reed may need some time to acclimate to Major League pitching.  That said, signing Davis would block Reed for the first few years of his career, and making Reed a full-time DH so early in his career probably isn’t something the Astros want.

Another concern is Davis’ price tag, which could be in the six-year/$144MM range and thus would easily surpass Carlos Lee’s six-year, $100MM deal from 2006 as the biggest contract in Astros history.  Payroll boost notwithstanding, I don’t see Houston splurging on two nine-figure contracts this offseason, so they’d have to choose whether they want to make a big impact (if any) on the pitching or offense front.

Speaking of pitching, the rotation projects as Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Lance McCullers and Fiers, with young arms like Vincent Velasquez, Dan Straily, Michael Feliz and Brett Oberholtzer available as depth (not to mention Mark Appel down in Triple-A).  Keuchel stepped forward as an ace and Cy Young Award contender in 2015, and his contract extension talks will be one of the club’s underlying subplots.  Expect to hear more about this topic in February and March when teams generally turn from offseason additions to extension business.  McHugh has now delivered consecutive seasons of 3+fWAR pitching, Feldman is a reliable veteran innings-eater when healthy and McCullers and Fiers have already showed the ability to dominate MLB hitters in their brief careers.

Plenty of teams would be satisfied with this pitching situation as it stands, though the Astros are thought to be in the market for a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Keuchel.  Remember, Houston pursued James Shields last winter even before their breakthrough season, and pursued the likes of Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross at the trade deadline.  While the Astros ended up with a controllable arm in Fiers and a bigger name hurler in Scott Kazmir, their next step is to land a pitcher who is both an ace and will be in Houston for several years.

Kazmir himself has stated he’d like to be that ace, though his middling results as an Astro both diminished his market value and perhaps hurt his chances of a return.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros check in on any of the top free agent pitchers, with David Price and Johnny Cueto perhaps getting the most focus since Houston already expressed in both starters last summer.  Also, neither pitcher has a qualifying offer draft pick attached to their services, though the Astros might not mind surrendering a first-rounder for the right signing given how many good prospects are already on board.  Price’s $200MM+ price tag may be too much to afford, though I could definitely see Houston getting involved with Cueto in the $115MM-$120MM range.

If a major arm is added to the rotation, Feldman stands out as a possible trade chip.  The right-hander was shut down with a strained throwing shoulder in September, so obviously he’d have to prove he’s back to normal in Spring Training.  Feldman brings a decent track record on a one-year, $8MM deal and could be very attractive to teams looking for a last-minute rotation boost.

This leaves the bullpen, which will be another major target area for the second straight offseason.  The Astros relief corps had the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the game last season, though it faded badly down the stretch with a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October (and that doesn’t count the infamous meltdown in Game 4 of the ALDS).  Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Josh Fields will return, while Houston has already declined their $3.5MM option on veteran righty Chad Qualls, whose peripherals suggest he pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA would indicate.

Southpaws Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are all free agents, so the Astros will certainly have to address a dearth of lefty relief.  Signing one of the winter’s top left-handed bullpen arms (Antonio Bastardo or Sipp himself) would add another significant contract to the Houston bullpen that already has over $12MM invested in 2016 salaries for Gregerson and Neshek.

The biggest relief investment could come in the form of a major closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were heavily targeted by Houston at the deadline.  The Reds and Padres are known to be asking for a large return for either closer, yet Houston is one of the few teams with the prospect depth to afford surrendering a notable minor leaguer or two for a reliever.  A star closer would make the Astros’ already solid bullpen even deeper, and with the rotation ideally providing more stable innings, the relievers are more likely to be sharp late in the season.

As noted earlier, Luhnow was aggressively seeking out top talent last winter before the Astros had proven they could put a winner on the field.  With a postseason berth now giving the franchise extra credibility with free agents, Luhnow could be one of the offseason’s busiest general managers given the plethora of options he has to improve the team.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By | at

A new front office has a busy offseason ahead as the Mariners will try to end baseball’s longest postseason drought.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $192MM through 2023
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $104MM through 2019
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $92.5MM through 2021 ($15-20MM club option for 2022, with buyout between $0-$3MM based on performance)
  • Nelson Cruz, RF/DH: $42MM through 2018
  • Seth Smith, OF: $7MM through 2016 (includes buyout of $7MM club option for 2017)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

New general manager Jerry Dipoto has wasted little time in reshaping Seattle’s baseball operations, hiring several new faces for the minor league, player development and scouting departments in an effort to upgrade a talent pipeline that faltered under former GM Jack Zduriencik.  A lot of changes have been made to the on-field unit as well, most visibly in a revamped coaching staff led by a first-time manager in Scott Servais.  It adds up to an organization that will (in theory) be on the same page and use analytical information as a cornerstone, something that wasn’t the case under Zduriencik’s tenure or in Dipoto’s previous GM stint in Anaheim.

While this bodes well for the Mariners over the long term, Dipoto will have to hit the ground running this winter.  The M’s fell way short of lofty offseason expectations in 2015, though with so many major stars on board, the feeling definitely still exists in Seattle that the Mariners are closer to contending than they are to a rebuild.  It makes sense for the Mariners to go for it while Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager are all still productive, as it’s not known how long the window will be open; after all, Cano and Hernandez showed some warning signs of decline last season.

The Angels signed some major free agents when Dipoto was GM, though it’s well-known that owner Arte Moreno played a huge role in the signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.  Dipoto himself is a bit more reticent about free agents, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that “the trade market is always my first alternative.  You draft, scout and develop, you trade, and to me free agents augment the roster you have. In a perfect world, you get to a stage where the foundation is strong enough you use free agency as a pure accent move rather than a foundational builder.”

This would seem to imply that the M’s probably won’t be players for Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or other open-market superstars who could turn roster weak spots into immediate strengths.  Further complicating matters is the fact that Seattle fell painfully shy of a protected pick in the first round of the 2016 draft, falling to the 11th overall selection by virtue of a tiebreaker with the White Sox (who had the same 76-86 record).  If the Mariners were to sign a free agent who had rejected a qualifying offer, they’d lose that 11th overall pick (the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft), which I highly doubt Dipoto would be willing to do given his quest to rebuild the farm system.

With almost $79MM committed to just five players in 2016, the Mariners also might not have the available payroll to afford another huge salary.  While massive contracts may not happen, Seattle could still ink a few lower-cost free agent deals.

For instance, the industry expects that the Mariners will re-sign Hisashi Iwakuma, as both the team and the player have interest in a reunion.  This would be a good move for a Seattle team in need of proven starting pitching, and since Iwakuma turns 35 in April and the free agent pitching market is rather deep, the M’s might be able to re-sign him on a two-year deal in the $28-30MM range.  If there’s enough demand that a third year is required, then the club is looking at a three-year/$42-45MM contract for the Japanese righty.  Things could change on the open market, of course, though at the moment the M’s look like the early favorite for Iwakuma’s services.

Assuming Iwakuma re-signs, he would join Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and new acquisition Nate Karns in Seattle’s rotation.  James Paxton is tentatively slotted into a spot as well, though he’s failed to pitch more than 74 innings in either of the last two seasons due to a shoulder injury (in 2014) and an injured finger tendon (in 2015).

Roenis Elias, Vidal Nuno and former top prospect Mike Montgomery are on board as depth options or fifth starter candidates if Iwakuma leaves.  A fairly inexpensive veteran could also be added to the mix to fight for that last rotation job, and the M’s have had some good luck with veteran reclamation projects looking to rebuild themselves at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Karns, left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell came to Seattle in Dipoto’s first notable deal as GM, with Brad Miller, Danny Farquhar and Logan Morrison heading to Tampa Bay in return.  Karns posted a 3.67 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 147 innings with the Rays last season in his first extended taste of Major League action.  He’s a bit old for a rookie (Karns turns 28 in November) but he’s controlled through the 2020 season and looks to be a very promising arm in the M’s rotation for years to come.

Riefenhauser hasn’t shown much over his 20 career MLB innings, though he adds a needed left-handed option to a bullpen that Dipoto has openly stated will be an area of focus this winter, and he has a strong Triple-A track record.  Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith are basically the only relievers who look to have guaranteed jobs next year.  Rookie Tony Zych will get a long look in Spring Training after an impressive late-season callup, while Charlie Furbush will probably return unless the biceps injury that sidelined him for much of the second half continues to be an issue (which could lead to a non-tender).

Wilhelmsen and Smith both saw action at closer in the wake of Fernando Rodney’s implosion, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mariners brought in a more established ninth-inning man given that Wilhelmsen has struggled to keep the closer’s job both in 2015 and in the past, while Smith also lost the gig back to Wilhelmsen late last year.  Joakim Soria makes sense as a target, or perhaps someone with past closer experience like Jonathan Broxton if the M’s wanted to at least keep Wilhelmsen/Smith in the mix for the closing job.  The Mariners are one of a few teams who have scouted Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh, who could be an intriguing option as he’s planning to make the jump to North American baseball.

Seattle could be very deep or very thin in left-handed relief options depending on Furbush’s health, Riefenhauser’s Spring Training performance and the roles of Nuno/Montgomery (who could be used in the bullpen or kept stretched out in the minors as starters).  The Mariners will at least check in on the offseason’s top-tier lefty relief options (Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp, etc.) and veteran Joe Beimel could also be re-signed to reinforce the southpaw corps.

Around the diamond, the Mariners are only set at third base (Seager), second base (Cano), and wherever Cruz plays, which is probably more likely to be DH than right field next season.  He’s been a defensive liability for years, and Dipoto has spoken of wanting to improve the Mariners’ athleticism and defense, particularly in regards to playing in a spacious ballpark like Safeco Field.

Powell and the recently-claimed Dan Robertson were Dipoto’s first steps towards addressing this outfield need, as both can play all three positions.  Robertson may be more of a depth option while Powell is likely on the verge of reaching the bigs after a solid performance in 246 Triple-A PA in 2015.  An everyday assignment may be a stretch, but Powell could certainly factor into the Mariners’ wide-open center field spot, if not early in the year then midseason.  Powell and left field incumbent Seth Smith are both left-handed hitters, so a right-handed hitting free agent outfielder like Rajai Davis or Chris B. Young could be a fairly inexpensive fits as platoon partners.  Robertson could also be an internal option for a right-handed platoon bat, and Franklin Gutierrez is another familiar face the M’s could look to re-sign for a part-time role.

If the Mariners want a full-time option in center, any number of free agent or (further) trade possibilities could be considered.  Jackie Bradley, Juan Lagares, Leonys Martin, Marcell Ozuna, Dalton Pompey and Melvin Upton could all conceivably be made available for trade this winter.  Denard Span would make sense in free agency, as he wouldn’t cost a draft pick since the Nationals didn’t extend him a qualifying offer.  Austin Jackson likely isn’t an option given how he has already under-performed in an Mariners uniform.  Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus, the other two major center fielders on the market, do have qualifying offers attached so they’re not likely to be targeted.

While I noted earlier that the Mariners probably won’t be big free agent spenders, if they were to make a big splash, Yoenis Cespedes could be a fit.  Due to his midseason trade, Cespedes isn’t subject to the qualifying offer and can be signed without draft pick compensation.  He certainly matches Dipoto’s preference for an athletic outfielder, though while he’s one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, Cespedes has graded as below-average in center over his career.  He could handle center for a year and then move back to his customary left field spot once Smith’s contract is up, or Cespedes could be installed into left immediately and Smith would become trade bait.

With Miller now in Tampa Bay, that solidifies Ketel Marte as the top choice at shortstop.  Marte played well enough last year to crack Baseball America’s midseason top 50 prospects list and earn his first call-up, then fit right in to the tune of a .283/.351/.402 slash line over 247 PA.  Marte has the inside track on the everyday job, with Chris Taylor on board as the middle infield backup.

Mike Zunino is still too young (24) to be considered a bust, especially given his top prospect pedigree and his already-outstanding defensive ability.  At the plate, however, Zunino posted a miserable .174/.230/.300 line over 386 PA last season, so Seattle certainly needs a catcher to pick up some of the offensive slack.  While Chris Iannetta himself struggled at the plate in 2015, I’m guessing Dipoto might be interested in his former Angels backstop as a veteran mentor to Zunino who can still contribute on the field.  If not Iannetta, Geovany Soto or Alex Avila make sense among free agent catchers, though if the Mariners weren’t committed to Zunino at least half the playing time, they could aim for Dioner Navarro or A.J. Pierzynski.

The first base situation became clearer when Morrison was sent to the Rays, and his departure probably saves the M’s from having to non-tender him to avoid a projected $4.1MM arbitration salary.  Mark Trumbo delivered some pop after joining the club from the Diamondbacks, though his lousy defense resulted in only 0.4 fWAR in 361 PA as a Mariner.  Trumbo’s limited skill set and projected $9.1MM salary combine to make him a non-tender candidate as well, though my guess is that the M’s would explore trading Trumbo rather than simply cutting him for no return.

With so much uncertainty at first, any number of interesting bats like Adam Lind, Ryan Howard, Brandon Moss, Adam LaRoche, Yonder Alonso or Pedro Alvarez being available in trades (or free agency, in the case of non-tenders).  While none are guaranteed to be big offensive powerhouses, they could at least be part of a platoon that could do more at a lesser cost than Trumbo’s $9.1MM, especially since some of the teams making those deals would have to eat some money, i.e. the Phillies and Howard or the White Sox and LaRoche.  A huge signing like Chris Davis can’t be completely ruled out simply because he’d be such a big upgrade, though as mentioned earlier, giving up another first-round draft pick and adding another huge salary would seem counter to what Dipoto is trying to do with the team.  A trade could be the likelier route to a first base upgrade.

With all this talk of trades, however, it’s well worth looking at what exactly the Mariners have to offer in return.  Further trades from the Major League roster could be a bit difficult, though, since the M’s were already lacking in depth.  As noted earlier, Trumbo or Smith could be trade bait.  If another catcher is acquired, Jesus Sucre, John Hicks or Steve Baron could be dealt.  One of Elias, Nuno or Montgomery could be moved if Iwakuma re-signs and Paxton proves he’s healthy.  These small pieces won’t combine for any blockbusters, but Seattle could help their own depth problems by moving expendable pieces for bench parts that are more likely to contribute in 2016.  Case in point, that deal with the Rays looks like a strong one on paper for Dipoto, as Morrison and Farquhar might have outlived their usefulness in Seattle.

Baseball America ranked the Mariners’ farm system 25th of 30 teams prior to the season, and that was before top prospects Alex Jackson and D.J. Peterson both suffered through rough 2015 campaigns.  While both (Jackson, in particular) are still well-regarded, Dipoto and his new minor league staff may not have the same attachment to Zduriencik’s prospects and could see them as trade chips while they still have value.  On the other hand, the reason for the player development overhaul was to better develop prospects both in the future and in the present, not to write off the current batch of young talent.  Given how thin Seattle’s system is, you’re probably only going to see a notable prospect traded if Dipoto and his staff have already decided against the player.

In a way, Dipoto finds himself in something of the same position that he was in as the Angels general manager — a few superstars on huge contracts, a few regulars best suited to platoon duty, little minor league depth, and some payroll limitations.  In Anaheim, however, those limitations were Moreno not wanting to exceed the $189MM luxury tax threshold, while in Seattle, Dipoto will have at least $130MM to work with.  While that’s a healthy number, if you count Iwakuma’s projected salary with the five players under contract, that leaves roughly $33MM for 19 members of the 25-man roster.

Dipoto won’t be judged entirely on his first offseason, of course, especially given the less-than-great shape the organization was in when he inherited the job and the sweeping changes he’s already trying to implement.  Many of the players from the Mariners’ 87-75 season in 2014, however, are still around, so a return to contention shouldn’t be out of the question as long as at least some of the major question mark positions are resolved.

2015-16 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By | at

mlbtr_top_free_agents_1080

Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived!  The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.

New to MLBTR?  You can follow us on Twitter, download our free app for iOS and Android, listen to our podcast, and sign up for our free weekly newsletter.

This is the fifth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 3,469 people entered, with Carson Pennington taking home the batting title with 15 correct picks out of 49, a .306 average.  Mark Polishuk topped MLBTR writers with 14 correct.  The contest is back for 2016 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 13th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point.  A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive cash prizes.

This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own.  Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below.  Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra.  Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix.  We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some.  Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power.  Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!

Read more

MLBTR Originals

By | at

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

By | at

The Diamondbacks remained in contention longer than most expected in 2015. GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and senior VP of baseball ops De Jon Watson will look to supplement the club’s core of exciting young position players this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $52.5MM through 2020 (Tomas can opt out of the final two years, $32.5MM)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $27.5MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 club option)
  • Aaron Hill, 2B/3B: $12MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Contract Options

  • Brad Ziegler, RHP: $5.5MM club option — exercised earlier this week
  • Josh Collmenter, RHP: $1.825MM club option — exercised earlier this week

Free Agents

From a pure payroll standpoint, the Diamondbacks look to be in excellent shape moving forward. Arizona has just $32.68MM committed to five players for the 2016 season (including the exercised options on Brad Ziegler and Josh Collmenter), and one of those commitments (Aaron Hill) will be shopped this winter. If the club tenders all of its arb-eligible players, that’d bring the total commitment to just over $58MM, and it’s possible that a few of those names will be non-tendered. Jeremy Hellickson is listed as one such candidate above, but he could also be traded to a club in need of innings. The former AL Rookie of the Year has now struggled for three straight seasons. A team without the financial wherewithal to spend much more than that might look at Hellickson as a reasonable roll of the dice, but he’s no longer the inexpensive upside play the Diamondbacks acquired last offseason, and Arizona arguably has more intriguing (or at least more affordable) internal options.

With that in mind, the pitching staff will be Arizona’s top priority this offseason. Patrick Corbin returned from Tommy John surgery and was highly impressive, so he figures to be a lock for the rotation. Another lefty, Robbie Ray, figures to have nailed down a rotation spot after posting a 3.52 ERA with solid peripherals in 127 1/3 innings of work. Chase Anderson and Rubby De La Rosa each posted ERAs well north of 4.00, though in De La Rosa’s case it’s worth noting that he utterly dominated right-handed hitters and was crushed by lefties. The D-Backs probably aren’t ready to go this route yet, but he seems very capable of becoming a late-inning bullpen weapon if he’s unable to find a third pitch to help him keep lefties off balance. Anderson, while his results weren’t outstanding, has looked the part of a capable fourth/fifth starter for two straight seasons now. Arizona also has Jhoulys Chacin, who delivered solid results in Triple-A and the Majors and could, at the very least, serve as a swingman for a reasonably affordable price tag.

Top prospect Archie Bradley had a difficult season. The right-hander suffered a fractured sinus when a rocket off the bat of Carlos Gonzalez came back up the middle and hit him in the face. It was a gruesome, frightening scene, but Bradley was back on the hill less than a month later. That return was short-lived, as a bout of shoulder tendinitis sidelined him for more than two months. Bradley, presumably, is still a big part of Arizona’s future, but he’s yet to deliver on the hype that made him one of the Top 10 prospects in baseball prior to the 2014 season. Other intriguing, upper-level arms include Braden Shipley and Aaron Blair. Both righties rank in the Top 100 prospects, per MLB.com, and both could arrive in 2016. That gives Arizona the option of letting the kids audition for rotation spots or packaging some upper-level talent to make a run at a proven rotation upgrade.

GM Dave Stewart has made no secret of his desire to add rotation help this winter. The D-Backs courted James Shields last offseason and figure to be in on the second tier of free agent arms this offseason as well. Mike Leake’s name has already been mentioned in connection with the team on more than one occasion, and considering the fact that the longtime Reds hurler played his college ball some 10 miles from Chase Field at Arizona State, the former Sun Devil may very well have interest in signing on as a Diamondback.

If Stewart and his staff want to aim for more upside, Jeff Samardzija has inconsistent results but top-of-the-rotation potential. Scouts love Samardzija’s frame and pure stuff, and Arizona is a heavily scouting-driven organization in an age of increasingly analytic-minded clubs. Stewart has also shown a willingness to spend on the international front (Yasmany Tomas, Yoan Lopez), so if Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda is posted this winter, look for the Diamondbacks to show interest. Jordan Zimmermann is somewhere between the very top of the pitching market and that second tier, and he could conceivably be of interest as well. Additionally, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro recently listed older veterans that will command shorter-term deals, such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma, as excellent fits for the D-Backs — a notion with which I firmly agree.

Any of those pitchers could command north of $15MM on an annual basis, but the Diamondbacks’ lack of long-term commitments on the books should make them relatively easy to fit into the picture while also presenting the opportunity to backload some contracts a bit to add more talent in 2016. The team does face some increasing arbitration salaries, but Ziegler, Hill, Hellickson and Hudson are all slated to come off the ledger next winter, lessening the risk of backloaded signings.

The bullpen is another area of need, and the team made an effort to upgrade in the most dramatic way possible over the summer by pursuing Aroldis Chapman. With just one year of control remaining, Chapman strikes me as an imperfect fit, to say the least. Some reports have indicated that the goal is to acquire and extend the flamethrowing lefty, but Chapman would, assuredly, command a record-setting contract for relief pitchers. Great as Chapman is, a lengthy commitment to a relief pitcher doesn’t seem like an optimal way for the D-Backs to maximize their long-term financial flexibility.

If the Diamondbacks are set on trading for a relief ace, I’d submit that a more reasonable trade target would be the Phillies’ Ken Giles. Philadelphia isn’t likely to consider Giles a building block due to the volatile nature of relievers, and his most valuable (i.e. least expensive) seasons will be, in some sense, wasted in Philadelphia as the club looks to rebuild. In a similar vein, Milwaukee’s Will Smith is a highly appealing relief arm on a rebuilding team that will begin to get expensive this winter via Super Two status. As such, the Brewers may be open to trading him even though he’s controlled through 2019.

Wiser still may simply be to make some short-term investments in free-agent relief help. Ryan Madson had a dominant rebound season with Kansas City and should receive, at most, a two-year commitment. Shawn Kelley is coming off an impressive year in San Diego after multiple seasons of strong peripherals but less-impressive bottom-line results. At least one lefty reliever should be added in some capacity, as well. Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp make for attractive targets, having stifled both left- and right-handed hitters in recent years.

Turning to the lineup, the D-Backs have little work to do. The outfield is strong, with David Peralta, Ender Inciarte and the grossly underrated A.J. Pollock comprising a solid starting unit. Tomas could factor into a corner position and provide the lineup with some thump, but his 2015 struggles and the team’s depth could allow him to start in the minors if he has a poor spring showing. Pollock is an extension candidate, albeit an older one at the age of 27. It’ll be tough to balance out the team’s desire to buy free-agent years and Pollock’s age, as he’s currently slated to hit the open market entering his age-31 season. Delaying that much more significantly dampens his earning power, so the options are probably a three-year deal to buy out his arb years (giving the team financial certainty), a four-year deal to delay free agency by one season (in the Michael Brantley mold, perhaps) or a significant six-year deal that rewards Pollock handsomely up front while dampening his mid-30s earning power.

The acquisition of Welington Castillo proved to be a huge victory for Stewart and his staff, as Castillo would go on to out-produce the man for whom he was traded — Mark Trumbo. (There were, of course, four other players in the deal, but Castillo was the most immediate piece of help Arizona received.) He should be the team’s regular catcher in 2016, though because he’s a not a great defender, adding a veteran, defense-first backup option isn’t a bad idea. Slugging prospect Peter O’Brien reportedly will give catching another try, but the powerful righty switched to the outfield earlier this year after developing issues with his throws back to the mound. Few scouts have pegged O’Brien as a catcher, and the outfield, first base or (following a trade) DH might be a more realistic future for him.

In the infield, Paul Goldschmidt ranks among baseball’s most elite all-around players, but the rest of the group isn’t as certain. Jake Lamb is a potential regular at third, but he hit just .249/.313/.358 with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate from June through September after returning from a stress reaction in his left foot. Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed have the defensive chops to be a stellar middle-infield duo, even if Ahmed won’t ever hit much. However, Owings is supposed to be known for his bat but instead posted an anemic .227/.264/.322 batting line with only four homers. Owings was plagued by shoulder issues in 2014 that eventually required surgery, and those troubles lingered into 2015. He has an outstanding Triple-A track record, so there’s hope for a turnaround, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Prospect Brandon Drury can handle both second base and third base, making him a candidate for the Opening Day roster given uncertainty surrounding Lamb and Owings, but the D-Backs seem like a strong candidate to pursue a versatile infield piece. Mike Aviles, Clint Barmes and old friend Cliff Pennington all make some sense in that regard, and Asdrubal Cabrera represents a higher-upside option that could move around the infield. He’d probably command starter money, though, which may be more than Arizona cares to spend, as the hope is that the cheap, young, in-house infielders figure it all out.

The elephant in the room (or in the infield, as it were) is Hill, who is owed $12MM next season in the final year of his contract. Drury’s presence means that Hill is even more redundant than he was in 2015. He’s been an obvious trade candidate for quite some time, but no takers have materialized due to his high salary and eroded production. The D-Backs will try to move him and may ultimately have to release him, but his situation creates opportunities for other clubs.

Arizona has already shown a willingness to part with prospect value as a means of shedding payroll, doing so blatantly in the Touki Toussaint/Bronson Arroyo trade with the Braves and doing so somewhat less blatantly earlier in the 2015 campaign by essentially trading a Competitive Balance draft pick to Atlanta in exchange for salary relief on Trevor Cahill’s deal. A rebuilding team with holes around the infield — think Phillies or Brewers — could offer to take on some or all of Hill’s contract in exchange for prospect value from the D-Backs.

That, of course, isn’t an ideal scenario for the D-Backs, but if the $12MM were able to be reallocated toward an immediate boost in the rotation or in the bullpen, then the team would be receiving much more apparent benefit than in the midseason trade of Toussaint. Shedding Hill’s salary would leave Arizona with just $46MM in 2016 commitments, which would be enough flexibility to pursue virtually any free agent on the market. That doesn’t mean fans should expect a run at David Price or Zack Greinke, but dealing Hill would create room to add a pair of second-tier free agents in addition to two relief upgrades and possibly some infield depth.

The D-Backs have some work to do, but their excellent outfield, the presence of Goldschmidt and a full year of Corbin in the rotation form a great start to a contending roster. If either Lamb or Owings breaks out and the team leverages its wide-open payroll capacity to make a few legitimate pitching upgrades, it’s not hard to envision meaningful baseball in Arizona sooner rather than later.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at

The deck has been cleared in Philly, and now it’s time for the new front office to chart a course.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Howard, 1B: $35MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
  • Matt Harrison, SP: $28MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
  • Carlos Ruiz, C: $9MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
  • Miguel Gonzalez, SP/RP: $4MM through 2016 (contract includes 2017 vesting option)

Arbitration Eligibles

Options

  • Cliff Lee, SP: $27.5MM club option ($12.5MM buyout) — option already declined by club

Free Agents

The Phillies constitute a fairly blank slate, in more than one respect. Heading out of the 2015 season after a year that featured an unusual amount of change, it’s hard to predict exactly how the club will proceed.

Philadelphia also features a brand new, hard-to-predict leadership group. Plurality owner John Middleton has been around for some time, but has steadily increased his ownership share and only recently stepped into the public spotlight for the first time. Incoming president Andy MacPhail has been running teams for quite a while, but was last at the helm in 2011 with the Orioles. He made the first big move of his tenure by firing long-time Phillies executive Ruben Amaro Jr. and replacing him with Matt Klentak. The youthful executive got his start under MacPhail in Baltimore, and more recently served as Jerry Dipoto’s assistant GM with the Angels, but has never functioned as a general manager. Philadelphia also decided to retain veteran baseball man Pete Mackanin as manager — his first permanent post after serving as an interim skipper on several occasions. The organization is even rolling out a new data and information system — the aptly-named “PHIL” — which is expected to assist the organization’s fledgling sabermetric efforts.

The fresh-look front office will inherit little in the way of future commitments. After sporting $100MM+ payrolls for each of the last seven years, the Phils have less than $65MM in obligations written in ink for 2016 and just a shade over $25MM thereafter. That’s quite a turnaround for a club that carried over $200MM in future promises in advance of the 2014 campaign.

As that wide-open future payroll would suggest, there aren’t many veteran pieces left. Ryan Howard has $35MM left on his deal, but that includes the buyout on a 2017 option, so he’s almost certainly entering his last year with the team (if he’s not moved beforehand). Veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz is in the same boat, though he only costs another $9MM. Cliff Lee’s buyout is included in the 2016 tally, as is the remainder of the money promised to Miguel Gonzalez. And the only other commitment that the team has is to lefty Matt Harrison, who was included as part of the salary workout undertaken in the summer’s Cole Hamels trade.

Neither is there much to worry about on the arbitration side of things. Just before Klentak was hired, the club outrighted former top prospect Domonic Brown, bringing his disappointing tenure with the organization to an end. He wouldn’t have earned much more than the $2.6MM he received through arbitration last year, and comes with another season of control thereafter, but the organization decided to cut bait after he put up back-to-back .634 OPS campaigns while delivering poor glovework in the corner outfield.

The remaining arbitration cases seem fairly easy. Jeanmar Gomez is a cheap and solid middle reliever. Andres Blanco, a historically light-hitting utilityman, had a career-best .292/.360/.502 batting line over 261 plate appearances (with most of the damage coming against lefties). There’s little harm in keeping him around on a cheap salary. It won’t be expensive to retain Freddy Galvis, either. While he’s not much of a hitter, he’s a good and versatile defender and strong baserunner.

Some would argue that it’s preferable to give a look to younger players rather than relying on the likes of Blanco and Galvis. But cheap veterans such as these allow teams to make promotions based upon developmental considerations rather than desperation. And it’s always good to have some experience and leadership in the clubhouse.

There are some other returning pieces that will factor into the offseason plans, of course. We’ll start in the infield, where Cesar Hernandez joined Blanco and Galvis in the middle infield (along with the since-traded Chase Utley). Like Galvis, he’s a light-hitting but versatile player who gives the organization flexibility. Youngster Darnell Sweeney, acquired in the Utley deal, will factor into the mix as well after making his MLB debut last year. The club could conceivably utilize those in-house options up the middle in 2016, or trade any one of them if an opportunity arises to add a new player who’s ready for big league action. Top prospect J.P. Crawford is the future at shortstop, and could end up as a mid-season call-up, but he has yet to play above the Double-A level. Third base is even easier: Maikel Franco will look to build off of his strong 2015 and make himself into a star.

The opposite scenario is in play at first and behind the plate. Philly could dump Howard and Ruiz for whatever salary relief it can find. Darin Ruf and Cameron Rupp are standing by as short-term replacements, or time-share options, depending upon what direction the team goes. Neither of those players is terribly exciting, of course, and both are much more useful against southpaws, but they could be paired with a variety of short-term free agents. There’s plenty of left-handed-hitting first base options, with Pedro Alvarez representing a somewhat interesting trade possibility, and catchers such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Alex Avila — both of whom are historically much better against righties — could be drawn by the promise of playing time.

In the outfield, too, Philly has somoe options but very few things etched in stone. Odubel Herrera was one of the more productive Rule 5 picks you’ll ever see last year, and he’ll get a chance to repeat in center. Aaron Altherr and Cody Asche are the only other 40-man outfielders under club control, though a number of the players discussed above (e.g. Galvis, Hernandez, Sweeney) have outfield experience. Altherr had an impressive debut, and could get a shot at regular playing time, while Asche has often been talked about as a trade piece since he might have more value to other teams that would put him back at third. There’s certainly room here to add a future-oriented piece, though it wouldn’t be surprising if the team simply brought back Jeff Francoeur and added another veteran free agent. This may be a place for the team to take a shot on a veteran who might like the idea of hitting at Citizens Bank Park and receiving everyday playing time. Austin Jackson comes to mind, as does Matt Joyce, a left-handed hitter who could platoon with Francoeur.

In the aggregate, a variety of positions — including, at least, second base, first base, catcher, and the corner outfield — remain unclaimed for the future. That’s not to say there aren’t down-the-line options in the organization, as prospects such as Scott Kingery (second base), Jorge Alfaro (behind the dish, if he can return to health and stick there), and Nick Williams, Cornelius Randolph, and Roman Quinn (in the outfield) are all filtering up. But those aren’t super-premium prospects of the Crawford variety, and prospect depth is always a good thing to have; if nothing else, of course, it provides trade chips when a team finally does reach contention (as the Astros and Mets both demonstrated this summer).

As with the position-player side of things, the rotation has a few interesting youngsters, some less-than-inspiring depth options, and an increasingly interesting group of prospects who might not quite be ready. Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff were both solid in their late-season rotation runs, and ought to open the year with the big league staff. Beyond them, there’s little certainty. Adam Morgan should get a look this spring after posting a respectable-enough 4.48 ERA over his first 15 MLB starts. But ERA estimators suggest he was much worse, and his minor league track record isn’t terribly inspiring. None of the other returning pitchers who made starts last year for the Phils —Alec Asher, David Buchanan, and Severino Gonzalez — managed a big league earned run average of lower than 6.99. Matt Harrison could ultimately provide some frames, but his back issues are so serious that it’s hard to count on him for much.

There are more arms coming, some of whom (e.g., Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively) could factor into the mix next year. But the Phillies don’t want to rush those pitchers to the majors — and start their service clocks — out of necessity. Dangling open rotation spots is a great way to attract buy-low free agents who’ll eat innings and could turn into summer trade chips. While CBP is a turn-off for pitchers, the leash should be relatively lengthy. Though last year’s choices of Aaron Harang and Chad Billingsley didn’t turn out so well, the organization will almost certainly add two or three rotation arms in free agency (and/or via trade). Doug Fister and Mat Latos might be drawn elsewhere, but pitchers like Mike Pelfrey, Trevor Cahill, Rich Hill, Alfredo Simon, Dillon Gee, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, and Edwin Jackson are among the other hypothetical options. Some might require modest but not-insignificant comments, while others could even be minor league free agent targets.

There will be some open bullpen spots, too, though the unit had some useful performances last year. Young closer Ken Giles led the way, of course, taking over in the ninth after the departure of Jonathan Papelbon. Many have suggested that it could be an opportune time to cash in on Giles, and the club will have to consider it if a good offer can be procured. (It hurts to give up bright, young players, and it can be painful to part with a high-end closer, but Philly can move Giles if the Braves can trade Craig Kimbrel.)

Otherwise, the aforementioned Gomez joined pitchers like Luis Garcia, Elvis Araujo, and Hector Neris in posting sub-4.00 ERA campaigns. Dalier Hinojosa was even better, though he greatly outperformed his peripherals. The club just added Dan Otero from the A’s via waiver claim. Southpaw Mario Hollands, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April, could come back on line at some point in the year. All told, compared to the rest of the team’s issues, the bullpen looks plenty solid. But that’s not to say that a veteran addition or two wouldn’t be worthwhile. That’s especially true, of course, if Giles is dealt, in which case the Phils may be able to draw some free agents with late-inning experience who would be intrigued at the possibility of acting as closer.

Broadly speaking, it’s hard to imagine the new front office trying to spend its way into immediate contention, given that it’s starting with one of the league’s weakest current rosters. Indeed, the club finished with the  game’s worst record in 2015.

On the bright side, Philadelphia was able to finish on a high note with a decent second half while still landing the number one overall pick in next summer’s draft. With plenty of bonus money to spend in the draft and on next year’s international market, much of the organization’s attention will remain on accumulating young talent. The Rule 5 draft could again prove fruitful. And the Phils’ incredible payroll flexibility could open the doors to more creative routes, such as taking on expensive veterans packaged with talented young players from other organization that need to shed salary.

That’s not to say that there’s no merit to considering MLB additions of more significance than were made last year. There’s plenty of appeal to the idea of spending money to improve competitiveness and — in some cases — to tamp down future arbitration earnings and add potential trade pieces. It would be surprising, really, were Philly to completely ignore that possibility this winter. I’d expect the team to look for opportunities as players fall through the cracks amongst a talented group of free agents.

In truth, though, it’s not yet known whether the Phils will follow a slower course (like the fellow big-market-dwelling Cubs) or instead try for nearer-term competitiveness with a more blended approach. Some have suggested a more aggressive approach to infusing MLB-level talent into the system: chasing younger free agents who will contribute when the club is ready to contend. There’s a new TV deal and fans to be appeased, and it’s hard to argue that the Phils don’t have the capacity to spend. In theory, that strategy could include position players such as Jason Heyward and Justin Upton and pitchers like Mike Leake, Brett Anderson, and Kenta Maeda (if posted by his NPB club). Should the club decide to dump Howard, moreover, a run at Korean slugger Byung-ho Park (who’s in the middle of the posting process as we speak) could make sense.

There’s certainly some merit to the idea, at least if good value can be achieved, but the new front office has said it doesn’t intend to build through open-market signings (at least yet). It will also be difficult to woo top players into a rebuilding situation. And it’s always dangerous to pre-commit. Though the organization has deep enough pockets to take some risks, it surely wants to avoid handcuffing itself again with bad contracts.

My own expectation is that a more modest offseason lies ahead, particularly since Hamels has already been shipped out. Creative trade concepts ought to be pursued, and value sought on the open market, but it wouldn’t be surprising if something like a Giles swap ended up being the biggest move of the winter. Then again, with brand new baseball ops leadership in place, anything seems possible again in Philly.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By | at

Check out all the entries in the 2015-16 Offseason Outlook series here.

After racking up more regular-season wins than any other team in 2015, the Cardinals are set to contend again, as they usually do. First, though, they’ll need to address Jason Heyward’s impending free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Jaime Garcia, SP: 2016 club option for $11.5MM with $500K buyout (exercised). The Cardinals also have a $12MM 2017 option with a $500K buyout
  • Jonathan Broxton, RP: 2016 club option for $9MM with $1MM buyout (declined)

Free Agents

After winning 100 games and then losing in the NLDS, the Cardinals will try to fly even faster into the wind this offseason. Whatever solutions they come up with to their immediate roster issues, it will be difficult for them to continue to perform at such a toweringly high level. Of course, they should still be a strong team. The problem of how best to maintain a 100-win team is a great one to have.

The possibility of losing Heyward looms large. Heyward, acquired last winter after the tragic death of Oscar Taveras, had the kind of season he usually has — his offensive numbers were, on the surface, a bit disappointing, but he contributed all sorts of value with his fielding and baserunning, frequently changing games with his glove and arm. His youth and broad skill set will make him a mint in free agency, although he could receive somewhat less per season than the usual top free agent might. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently predicted Heyward would receive a ten-year, $200MM contract, perhaps with an opt-out. Any contract at or near that level is a risk, and the Cardinals will have plenty of competition, but they could certainly bid for Heyward at that price, given their modest payroll commitments in 2017 and beyond.

If Heyward signs elsewhere, the Cardinals can be flexible. They could pursue a lower-cost free agent outfielder, but it’s more likely they’ll simply go with veterans Matt Holliday and Jon Jay plus some combination of young outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham, all of whom had surprisingly strong seasons in 2015. The Cardinals could then spend their available funds on other positions.

One of those positions could be starting pitcher, but likely only if they’re acquiring a top-flight player. The Cardinals have Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and a healthy Adam Wainwright under control for 2016, along with Jaime Garcia, whose option they’ve already decided to exercise after a successful comeback season. They also have Carlos Martinez, although a season-ending shoulder strain makes his short-term future somewhat uncertain. Their depth options, like Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney, are also fairly good ones, and top prospect Alex Reyes could potentially enter the picture late in the season. So despite the impending departure of John Lackey, there’s little reason for the Cardinals to pursue an innings-eater type.

They could, however, conceivably aim higher — they’ve already been mentioned as a possible bidder for this winter’s top free agent, David Price. Pursuing a free agent like Price (or Heyward, for that matter) does seem a bit tricky from a budgetary perspective, at least in the short term; the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll was $122MM in 2015, and between their $90MM or so in existing commitments for 2016 and arbitration-year salaries on top of that, they don’t appear to have much room for a highly paid player. Given their very limited future commitments ($65MM in 2016, $33MM in 2017, and practically nothing after that), though, it would seem possible for the Cardinals to increase their payroll somewhat for 2016 with the understanding that they can limit their spending in the future if they need to.

Besides, if the Cardinals were to decide to pursue top free agents, they would have ways to trim payroll. In addition to non-tendering Brandon Moss, Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek (all of whom had subpar 2015 seasons), the Cardinals could conceivably clear payroll space by trading someone like Garcia, especially if they sign a top starter. Garcia had a brilliant comeback season in 2015 and is well worth his option, but the Cardinals could look at his injury history and figure they might be able to get more certainty by spending their money differently. The Cardinals have also already declined Jonathan Broxton’s option, and they could also attempt to save a bit by non-tendering light-hitting backup catcher Tony Cruz.

The Cardinals could also potentially upgrade at first base, particularly if Heyward leaves. They were 25th in the big leagues in home runs last season, with 137, and first could represent one way to address that problem. Chris Davis would represent a huge improvement, and Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park might be a lower-cost option. Of the two, Park might be somewhat more likely — the Cards bid on Jung-Ho Kang last offseason, and GM John Mozeliak said at the time that the organization was interested in delving further into the market for Asian players. If the Cardinals do re-sign Heyward, they could pass on first base upgrades and have Piscotty spell Matt Adams there on occasion, particularly against lefties. Adams could also become a trade candidate in that scenario — he didn’t hit well in 2015, but a team with a bigger hole at first (or a need for DH) could have interest in taking a flyer on his bat.

Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness will all presumably be back in the bullpen. The Cardinals can also hope for more from Jordan Walden, who missed most of 2015 with a shoulder injury. A variety of other pitchers, including Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich and Lyons, could also contribute. It wouldn’t be a surprise to the Cardinals add a lefty to complement Siegrist, though, particularly if they plan on saving Lyons to start if needed. Lefty Randy Choate is a free agent, and the Cards might benefit from adding someone who they trust a little more against righties. Someone like Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp would make sense, although those pitchers figure to be in demand this offseason, with a relatively thin group of lefty relievers on the market. If the Cardinals can’t find someone from outside the organization, minor league southpaw Dean Kiekhefer could be a possibility. The Cards will also likely at least consider re-signing righty Carlos Villanueva, who was effective in multi-inning stints last season, although the need for him would be lessened somewhat by replacing Choate with a lefty capable of pitching full innings.

The Cards will also need to address their bench somewhat. They have solid outfield depth, but they’re a bit thin on catching and infielders. At catcher, Cody Stanley would probably have been the next man up if Cruz departs, but he’ll be serving an 80-game PED suspension for much of next season. The Cardinals can also use a somewhat stronger backup catcher than they’ve had recently, too, with Yadier Molina getting older (he’s now 32) and coming off a subpar offensive season. And now that the Cardinals have outrighted Pete Kozma, they only have Greg Garcia as an obvious backup to Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong, unless they want to push Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz to the big leagues after only 58 Triple-A plate appearances (or use minor league vet Dean Anna, who remains on their 40-man roster even though they showed little interest in him last season).

Beyond the roster tweaking, though, a key problem for the Cardinals this season is how to maintain, or even approximate, the amazing pitching results they got in 2015. The Cards’ 2.82 team ERA ran a full run behind their xFIP and about three quarters of a run behind their SIERA. They held batters to a .275 wOBA with runners on base and .266 with runners in scoring position. Each mark was at least 20 points better than their nearest competitor. They left 79.4% of runners on base, more than four percentage points better than the next-best team. Ed Feng of the Power Rank calculates that the Cardinals saved 105 runs more than expected via the clustering (or lack thereof) of their opponents’ hits.

The Cardinals gave about a third of that cluster luck back on offense. Still, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland suggested in August, it’s difficult to find reasons that fully explain how the Cardinals’ pitchers got such great results last season. It’s probably unwise, therefore, to expect them to do so again in 2016, just as the Cards’ 2014 offense didn’t maintain anything resembling the amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position they’d posted the previous year.

Obviously, though, there isn’t much the Cardinals can do to address that problem other than to attempt to upgrade their roster the way they normally would. And, of course, they won 100 games last year, and it generally takes some good fortune to be that successful, even if you’re great. The Cardinals could win ten fewer games in 2016 and still be competitive. If they’re able to re-sign Heyward, or compensate for his departure with additions elsewhere, they should be right in the thick of the NL Central race yet again.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By | at

After undergoing a fairly extensive tear-down last winter, the Braves will look to begin rebuilding toward a return to contention in 2017, when they are set to open a new park.

Guaranteed Contracts

*Indians will pay $10MM of the collective obligations to Swisher and Bourn in 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Things got ugly in the second half for the club, which all but collapsed down the stretch. In addition to the sales of a few last short-term veterans, the Braves’ summer featured a bad contract swap of Chris Johnson for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and — more importantly — the acquisition of Hector Olivera in a deal that sent lefty Alex Wood and prospect Jose Peraza to the Dodgers (among other pieces changing hands). That made for a less-than-ideal 2015 product, but that wasn’t really the point.

We may have been given a hint at the Braves’ endgame when the club parted with the controllable Wood for an unproven, somewhat older player in Olivera. Having spent the winter accumulating as many upper-level young arms as it could via trade, Atlanta gave one up for the chance at five fairly cheap years of Olivera. That move suggests that Atlanta already sees a light at the end of the tunnel of its quick rebuild. After all, Wood certainly could’ve brought back youthful prospects instead.

With a newly resurgent farm system and at least the nucleus of a core in place, the Braves are probably ready to begin adding at the major league level. But having parted with so much MLB-level talent in the last year or so, it’s unlikely that the organization really expects contention in 2016. Instead, the focus will be on 2017 and beyond.

So, what might the club look to do this winter under the leadership of newly-promoted GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart? Let’s start with the possibility of further swaps, as it’s hard to rule anything out after Atlanta was willing to part with its long-term control over Evan Gattis and Craig Kimbrel last offseason.

It would take something awfully compelling for the Braves to consider moving Freddie Freeman or Andrelton Simmons, the pair of young infielders who figure to bridge the team’s most recent contender to its (hopeful) future outfit. Frankly, the possibility seems too remote to seriously consider as something that’s on the table.

Righty Julio Teheran, though, has generated more chatter. He’s taken a value hit after an uninspiring 2015, but he’s cheap, young (still 24), and durable (607 1/3 innings since the start of 2013). It’s hard to know how interested Atlanta is in parting with him, but the ask would surely be high in spite of his difficulties.

After all, while the Braves have compiled an impressive volume of young arms, few have established themselves in the big leagues. It would be risky to move on from Teheran, especially after having already sent out Wood. Shelby Miller had a strong season and looks like a great get from the Jason Heyward/Jordan Walden deal. (An extension with Miller could be pursued, at least to buy up his arb-eligible seasons.) The other key piece in that swap, Tyrell Jenkins, is one of several younger arms who’ll look to crack (or stay in) the big league staff in the coming years. Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz, and Manny Banuelos are also recent trade additions in that general mold, and top prospect Lucas Sims is coming up behind that group. Further off are interesting names like Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, and Max Fried, among others.

Rounding out the 2016 rotation will involve a mix of depth pieces like Williams Perez and Ryan Weber and, perhaps, a veteran acquisition or two. The club has indicated it will tender a contract to lefty Mike Minor in hopes that he can reestablish himself after a tough run of injuries, but he’ll be hard to count on.

It’s possible to imagine Atlanta adding a mid or long-term arm on the free agent market, though it seems more likely that the club will look to bail out an undervalued asset than to beat the market for a top-end hurler. It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine this opportunistic front office pouncing if someone like Jeff Samardzija or Ian Kennedy find demand lacking, though I’d expect they will value the loss of a draft pick quite highly in weighing such decisions. While Atlanta’s #3 overall selection is protected, the team will probably like the idea of preserving an additional early draft slot (and the pool money that comes with it). Otherwise, there’s certainly some merit to the idea of utilizing the team’s unclaimed rotation spots to draw a pitcher (Doug Fister being the popular, but potentially too pricey, example) who could be looking for a one-year bounce-back deal. And Atlanta should be a popular destination for minor league free agents seeking a chance to prove themselves in the spring.

There’s even more uncertainty in the bullpen, where Arodys Vizcaino reemerged to have a nice year and take over as the closer. After him, though, the team’s most-used and most effective pen arms were traded (Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan) or hurt (Jason Grilli). The team still controls Grilli for two more years (the second via option) and could put him back in the ninth when he returns from injury, both to boost his trade stock and to tamp down Vizcaino’s arb platform. Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler will need a roster spot to open the year in order for the team to earn his permanent rights, while another Rule 5 selection — Andrew McKirahan — could provide a left-handed option. Unfortunately, southpaw Paco Rodriguez — who was acquired from the Dodgers — is going to be out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but Chris Withrow — another Los Angeles import (separate trade) — could be ready and provides some interest. Veteran Peter Moylan could be brought back, and the club can also get some frames out of Brandon Cunniff, who logged the most relief innings last year of any returning pitcher in the organization.

There are a number of other names that could be in the mix, but none seem particularly worth mentioning. Atlanta took advantage of the fact that it had late-inning opportunities to offer last year when it signed Grilli and Johnson, and it could do so again. The club will also just be looking to get innings wherever it can. Last year’s roster ultimately included a veritable who’s who of once-quality pitchers who were looking for big league chances. But there’s also quite a realistic scenario where the Braves make a real investment in a reliever or two via free agency, as the team’s front office has hinted in recent weeks.

Moving back to the position player side of the equation, the infield seems largely set — potentially. Simmons, Freeman, and Olivera will take three spots. Third base prospect Rio Ruiz, who didn’t exactly master Double-A but spent the year there at 21 years of age, could eventually push Olivera off of the hot corner. That would open new questions and new possibilities, but there are some more immediate issues to be addressed.

Jace Peterson probably warrants another audition at second, though he’ll need to improve on a .239/.314/.335 batting effort. It’s possible — perhaps likely — that the team will look to supplement him with a veteran. The team signed Alberto Callaspo and Kelly Johnson as role-playing depth pieces last year, and figures to do something similar this winter. Top prospect Ozhaino Albies may ultimately be an appealing option up the middle, but he’s just 18 and is further off away than was the traded-away Jose Peraza.

Its certainly possible that the organization will consider adding a more significant infield piece this winter. That’s all the more true given reports that Olivera will spend some time in Puerto Rico playing the corner outfield. There are several free agents who might function as bridge players — Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy among them — and a variety of hypothetical trade candidates.

The club faces more questions behind the dish, where Christian Bethancourt remains an intriguing but frustrating player. He played only sporadically in the majors, endured a mid-season demotion (though he hit well at Triple-A), and drew questions about his mental approach. In a mid-season interview, Hart explained that he liked the young backstop’s tools, but felt that he was failing to grasp what it took to be a big league catcher. The issue was “not dedication,” said Hart. Instead: “It’s a level of preparedness you need for what [pitching coach] Roger [McDowell] expects and a championship organization expects, especially when dealing with young pitchers.” It’s possible that Atlanta will entertain change-of-scenery offers, though he seems more likely to get another chance. Last year’s primary backstop ended up being veteran A.J. Pierzynski. He remains a candidate to return, particularly after the club resisted the urge to trade him at the deadline, though he’ll test the market first. Otherwise, another elder statesman might be found. The Braves have been mentioned as a hypothetical suitor for Matt Wieters, who attended Georgia Tech, and he certainly could be the sort of (relative) buy-low that the organization would find intriguing. But it’s not yet clear whether Atlanta will be a leading contender for his services, especially since he’ll likely require a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick.

In the outfield, Nick Markakis — last year’s surprise free agent splurge — will handle right. Cameron Maybin figures to see the bulk of the action in center — barring a trade, at least. He was a nice comeback surprise after being included as part of the salary balancing in the Craig Kimbrel deal. Though his production tailed off late, he ended up with a .267/.327/.370 batting line to go with 23 steals and ten home runs. On the other hand, defensive metrics hated his glovework despite historical success.

While there would have to be interest if an appealing offer came in, the club is probably best off sticking with Maybin for the time being. He isn’t too expensive, his option conveys a bit of upside, and he could turn into an even more valuable mid-season trade chip. Maybin is likely just keeping the seat warm for Mallex Smith, who earned a mid-season promotion to Triple-A in his age-22 campaign. He still needs to conquer that level, and is far from a surefire prospect, but a summer promotion could be in order if he does and if there’s a need at the major league level.

Of course, the Braves do have another option in center: the veteran Bourn, who came over in the aforementioned trade along with Swisher. Bourn could help bridge the gap as well. Neither of those players produced last year, and may not last the year if they falter. (Both have options for 2017 that vest at 550 plate appearances, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that is allowed to take place.) But they’ll do for the meanwhile, and the organization has another fourth outfield type on hand in Adonis Garcia (though he’s not a good bet to repeat his production).

Given that array of outfield options, it’s easy to dream on the team wading into the free agent market. It would be foolish to rule out such an effort, though it’d also be rather shocking to see any nine-figure deals handed out. As with the rotation, it’s possible to imagine the Braves seeing what the market will yield. That could come in the form of a one-year, bounceback signing or a multi-year pact with a mid-level free agent who falls through the cracks.

Entering the winter, there’s an argument to be made that Atlanta should be increasingly aggressive in free agency (after having already shown just that trait on the trade market). After all, if the team hopes to be prepared for legitimate contention in 2017, this robust free agent market might present the right moment to strike.

Having demonstrated a willingness to spend on the mid-tier market last year, in signing Markakis, players his price range certainly seem in play. Costlier additions, though, may not be forthcoming. There’s some open current and future payroll, but not a lot: the club has just under $75MM in commitments for 2016 before accounting for arbitration, and that number drops into the $50MM to $60MM range over the four seasons to follow. Even with the promise of new stadium and TV revenue, it would be dangerous to tie up too much future payroll for an organization that has started a season with a payroll over $100MM only once (2014).

All told, the offseason promises more of the same creativity out of Atlanta, albeit with a nearer-term focus. And we can’t discount the possibility of a big surprise out of this creative front office duo.

Poll: What Is Starlin Castro’s Trade Value?

By | at

As we recently outlined in our offseason outlook series, the Cubs are in a fantastic financial position. With the exception of Jon Lester, the best players on their roster are either club controlled or on a team friendly extensions. In fact, only three players (besides Lester) are on substantial, market-rate contracts – Miguel Montero, Jason Hammel, and Starlin Castro.

Castro’s name stands out like a sore thumb. The 25-year-old has six years of major league experience and 11.3 career WAR. He was supposed to be a long-term cog for Chicago, but now the Cubs have a roster crunch in the middle infield. Addison Russell has firmly claimed the starting shortstop job. Next season, second base will likely belong to one of Castro or Javier Baez with Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella providing depth.

Given the available internal depth, it’s widely assumed that the Cubs will shop Castro this winter. But what can they get in return? While Castro is young, he’s inked to a four-year, $38MM contract. If he was a free agent, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Castro could sign for those same four-years and $38MM – if not more. However, he’s hurt his stock significantly with recent struggles.

Castro has looked like two different players throughout his career. In 2013 and 2015, he barely outperformed replacement level. In 2011, 2012, and 2014, he produced three WAR seasons. Overall, he’s a slightly below average defender at shortstop with inconsistent offense.

Which player is he – the above average shortstop or the replacement level depth guy? He’s probably both. Offensively, he’s a slightly aggressive hitter with decent but modest pop (10 to 14 home runs in each of the last five seasons). He keeps his strikeouts to a minimum, but he also doesn’t walk.

Without serious power or on base skills, he leans heavily on a high average to provide value. In his best seasons, he posted a .315 or better BABIP with a league average line drive rate. In his two worst years, his line drive rate dropped while his ground ball rate increased. That could indicate any number of mechanical, mental, or preparation-related issues.

Whoever employs him next season should probably plan to take the good with the bad. At worst, he probably won’t embarrass your club. At best, he’s a solid core performer. But what is that worth? We know consistency can be important to major league clubs. Building a contender depends upon managing both floor and ceiling. Castro’s inconsistency is point against him.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he projects as a two-win player. Teams pay about $12MM to $16MM per season for two-win players. With those assumptions, he’s worth anywhere from $10MM to $26MM more than his current contract (we could get more complicated with the model too). If that’s the case, the Cubs should find somebody willing to offer a relatively high profile prospect. A true top prospect is definitely off the table. Although there isn’t a fit with the Rangers, I could see somebody like Chi Chi Gonzalez as a match in value.

However, we could easily build a lower projection and hence a lower surplus value. Most models usually assume that players will decline pretty consistently from year-to-year, even when they’re young like Castro. Breakouts happen but injuries and other factors tend to sap talent more reliably.

Deciding upon the projection is the hard part. If the Cubs mean to trade Castro, they will have to shop around to find which teams have the rosiest outlook. As you might expect, there aren’t any comparable trades to reference. Young players who sign seemingly team-friendly extensions usually stay with their club until late in the contract. When they’re discarded, it’s usually because they’ve completely cratered.

We’re left to guess how rival clubs may view Castro. Will they see upside related to his youth? Is he valuable due to his position and potential for above average production? Can opposing GMs exploit the Cubs roster crunch by playing coy? These are just some of the factors to consider as you answer today’s poll.

What Is Starlin Castro's Trade Value?
Slightly positive - he could net an adequate prospect 48.26% (6,426 votes)
Neutral - the Cubs will have to include money to get a good player in return 22.79% (3,034 votes)
A lot - they can get at least one high quality prospect 20.90% (2,783 votes)
Negative - the Cubs will have to include cash and accept a middling return to offload him 8.05% (1,072 votes)
Total Votes: 13,315
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top