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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | at March 22, 2016 8:39am CDT

You can find all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The rebuild continues, but the Braves have concentrated the bulk of their talent acquisitions at or near the MLB level.

Major League Signings

C Tyler Flowers: Two years, $5.3MM
C A.J. Pierzynski: One year, $3MM
SP Bud Norris: One year, $2.5MM
RP Jim Johnson: One year, $2.5MM
IF Kelly Johnson: One year, $2MM
IF Gordon Beckham: One year, $1.25MM
IF Emilio Bonifacio: One year, $1.25MM
RP Carlos Portuondo: $990K bonus (minor-league deal)
Total spend: $18.8MM

Trades and Claims

Acquired SS Erick Aybar, SP Sean Newcomb, SP Chris Ellis and $2.5MM from Angels for SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno
Acquired CF Ender Inciarte, SP Aaron Blair, SS Dansby Swanson from Diamondbacks for SP Shelby Miller, RP Gabe Speier
Acquired RP Ian Krol, RP Gabe Speier from Tigers for OF Cameron Maybin
Acquired SP/RP Casey Kelly, C Ricardo Rodriguez from Padres for C Christian Bethancourt
Acquired RP Jose Ramirez from Mariners for PTBNL (RP Ryne Harper)
Claimed LHP Evan Rutckyj from Yankees in Rule 5 Draft (since returned to New York)

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Willians Astudillo, Reid Brignac, Jhoulys Chacin, Chase d’Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, Nate Freiman, David Holmberg, Kyle Kendrick (since released), Blake Lalli, Ryan Lavarnway, Alexi Ogando, Alex Torres, Carlos Torres, Matt Tuiasosopo, Rob Wooten, Chris Volstad (since released)

Notable Losses

Betancourt, Pedro Ciriaco, Ross Detwiler, Edwin Jackson, Mike Minor, Sugar Ray Marimon, Maybin, Miller, Peter Moylan, Eury Perez, Simmons, Joey Terdoslavich

Needs Addressed

The biggest move made by Atlanta last winter came on the eve of Opening Day, when closer Craig Kimbrel was shipped to the Padres. This time around, the stunner came early in the offseason, with defensive magician Andrelton Simmons heading to the Angels for one year of veteran shortstop Erick Aybar and two pitching prospects: the high-upside Sean Newcomb and near-ready Chris Ellis.

While GM John Coppolella had to defend the Simmons swap to fans and observers, the later send-off of Shelby Miller largely sold itself. The 25-year-old Miller, the key piece of last year’s Jason Heyward deal, had a strong first campaign in Atlanta and is controllable for three more seasons. But the Diamondbacks paid big to get him, parting with five years of Ender Inciarte, last year’s top overall pick Dansby Swanson, and highly-rated pitching prospect Aaron Blair. Inciarte looks like a solid building block piece — if he, too, isn’t eventually flipped — while Swanson may form a future middle infield pairing with rising youngster Ozhaino Albies. As for Blair, he joins Newcomb and Ellis in an increasingly loaded stockpile of promising young arms.

That’s not all that Atlanta accomplished on the trade front. Cameron Maybin was another recent trade piece who was passed along, adding to the cost savings achieved in the Kimbrel pact. And the club officially gave up on one-time catcher-of-the-future Christian Bethancourt, who was out of options, preferring instead to roll the dice on promising but oft-injured righty Casey Kelly and young backstop Ricardo Rodriguez.

That set of swaps opened quite a few needs and opportunities at the major league level. Aybar promises to play regularly at short, keeping the seat warm for Swanson and Albies while providing a potential trade chip at this year’s deadline. Likewise, Inciarte will move into the center field role, shifting Michael Bourn to a reserve role.

Joining those new faces are a host of veterans signed to short-term contracts. At catcher, Atlanta gave two years to the non-tendered Tyler Flowers and brought back A.J. Pierzynski on a one-year pact. That looks like a fairly sturdy duo behind the plate: Flowers has an average bat for the position and has posted good framing numbers, while the 39-year-old Pierzynski slashed .300/.339/.430 last year for the Braves. Ryan Lavarnway was re-signed to a minor league deal to provide further depth.

Kelly Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and Gordon Beckham will join Jace Peterson and Adonis Garcia in the mix at second and third at a total cost of just $4.5MM. It would be a surprise if that group produced at a terribly high level, but the club will hope that it will be able to make out a serviceable enough unit from those options. If nothing else, the pressure will be reduced on Peterson, who wasn’t quite up for everyday duty when he joined Atlanta before last season as part of the Justin Upton trade.

Among the team’s minor league signings were veteran utilitymen Reid Brignac and Chase d’Arnaud, who could step in at short if Aybar is moved. (Light-hitting Daniel Castro also represents a place-holding option there.) And players like Jeff Francoeur, Nate Freiman, and Matt Tuiasosopo also joined the organization over the winter in hopes of pushing for a bench spot.

Rounding things out were a host of pitching additions, led by guaranteed deals for right-handers Bud Norris and Jim Johnson. The 31-year-old Norris will be relied upon in the rotation, where he’ll look to re-establish himself as a durable back-of-the-rotation starter. Kyle Kendrick might’ve hoped for the same, but was already released after struggling early this spring. The same fate befell Chris Volstad, though David Holmberg and Carlos Torres are still in camp as depth options for an otherwise youthful staff.

Meanwhile, Johnson will hope to replicate his solid form in the first half of 2015 with the Braves after struggling following his mid-season move to the Dodgers. Minor league signees like Jhoulys Chacin, Alexi Ogando, and Alex Torres all bring plenty of experience to the pen mix, too.

Continued analysis after the break …

Questions Remaining

Needless to say, there are quite a few moving parts in Atlanta, and the Opening Day roster will likely see quite a bit of turnover during the season to come — and yet more down the line.

The rotation is an area on which Coppolella, John Hart, and company have focused plenty of attention in acquisitions. Norris will join staff ace Julio Teheran as the two most established arms. The youthful Williams Perez will likely have an opportunity to prove himself, though he isn’t generally seen as having much upside. Chacin may yet crack the staff and provides a swingman option. Otherwise, the vanguard of the team’s large group of hopeful future staff members — Matt Wisler, Manny Banuelos, and Mike Foltynewicz — will get a longer look after receiving their first exposure to starting in the majors in 2015 (none with particularly impressive results).

Unfortunately for the Braves, they didn’t get to see what Mike Minor has left, as he was deemed too great a risk for a tender when he experienced a rehab setback this winter. The organization has been stung by this situation recently: the organization also lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy without recompense after they, too, were beset with arm trouble in the midst of arbitration.

It’s possible to imagine a scenario where Atlanta gets some decent performances and enjoys relative stability from the rotation in 2016, but it’s also not difficult to foresee some quality and depth issues. Teheran could end up being trade bait if he performs, and Norris has quite a bit to prove. Holmberg and Torres aren’t the most established depth options, while youngsters like Blair, Kelly, Ellis, and Tyrell Jenkins may or may not be ready for the majors this season. (The highest-upside arms, such as Newcomb, Kolby Allard, and Touki Toussaint, are probably further off.) All told, it wouldn’t be surprising if Atlanta picked up some castaways late this spring or during the season.

There’s some room for critique here, as Atlanta could have pursued more compelling rotation pieces if it’s serious about putting a solid product on the field in 2016. After all, the organization’s current projected Opening Day payroll projects to land south of $75MM for the first time in the 21st century. The Braves could’ve pushed for Doug Fister in free agency, pursued the trade route that the Phillies used to land Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson, or even pushed for a more controllable, MLB-level arm. The price of pitching was high, to be sure, but a bigger move might also have reaped greater rewards at the trade deadline and/or given the team a better chance to hang in the postseason picture.

Over in the pen, at least, there appears to be more in the way of depth. Veterans Johnson and Jason Grilli could turn into deadline movers if they can be as healthy and effective as they were early last year, and Arodys Vizcaino showed immense promise as a late-inning arm. In terms of middle relievers, aforementioned trade acquisitions Ramirez and Krol may slot right in, and there’s a wide variety of depth pieces — including Chacin, Ogando, and already-optioned 40-man members Chris Withrow and Danny Burawa. Atlanta will need to carry Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler for at least a few weeks to lock down his rights from the Rockies. The club already sent lefty Evan Rutckyj back to the Yankees, and will unfortunately have to wait a while before getting a look at injured southpaws Andrew McKirahan and Paco Rodriguez, but that could at least open the door for Alex Torres.

It’s a testament to the amount of turnover in this organization that we’re only now able to turn to one of the most important questions facing the team: the ability of Hector Olivera to adapt to the big leagues. We won’t go through the details of the complex, 13-player trade that brought Olivera (and Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, and a competitive balance pick) to Atlanta, but suffice to say the Braves gave up some real future value in hopes that Olivera would turn into an affordable, steady regular. Soon to turn 31, Olivera underwhelmed at the plate and in the field in his first taste of the majors, but he’s shown better this spring and will move from third base to left field. He’s controlled through 2020, so it’s still a long-term play, but the organization will need to see significant strikes in 2016 or begin to make alternative plans.

With Inciarte up the middle and Nick Markakis holding down right — at least unless the club considers a mid-season deal for the sturdy veteran — the regular rotation should largely be set. If Bourn sticks as a fourth outfielder, with Bonifacio and Johnson also capable of time on the grass, that would likely mean that Nick Swisher would be set onto the market. Atlanta will surely be happy to find any team interested in taking on some of his salary, but that seems unlikely given the veteran’s injury-aided fall-off at the plate. (The Indians are already paying $15MM of the $29MM owed in total to Swisher and Bourn for the coming season.)

Much attention has been given to youngster Mallex Smith‘s big spring, though it doesn’t seem there was ever much chance that he’d head north out of camp (at least once Inciarte was added). He’s only 22 and didn’t exactly master Triple-A after a mid-season promotion last year, so it seems likely he’ll get more seasoning. But a nice showing could earn him a big league nod at some point in the coming season.

The same holds true of Albies and Swanson, and perhaps also third baseman Rio Ruiz, though in all cases the Braves will surely keep an eye on service time and avoid rushing any of the players that they hope will form a solid position-player core for years to come. We already covered the infield mix above; odds are, the club will let things play out without any aggressive promotions at least until the Super Two deadline has passed and the summer trade market has begun to materialize.

But it’s fair to note here that, as with the rotation, there might’ve been some room for greater improvements. Players like Howie Kendrick, Ian Desmond, and David Freese all languished on the market and would have upgraded a cheap but largely uninspiring second and (especially) third base situation. To be fair, the investments in Johnson, Bonifacio, and Beckham had already been made before the asking prices fully dropped. And parting with a draft pick (for Kendrick or Desmond) would’ve been painful due to the lost bonus dollars. Nevertheless, the overall situation at these spots is sub-optimal, particularly since the rising prospect crop may not quite be ripe for a big league challenge over the season to come.

There’s one very notable player we’ve yet to mention, of course: first baseman Freddie Freeman. There’s some concern about his nagging wrist issues, but otherwise Freeman is the organization’s surest asset. (He’s also the most expensive and longest-controlled, as his deal guarantees $118.5MM through 2021.) If any player is bolted down in Atlanta, it’s the 26-year-old first baseman. There were plenty of trade rumors early in the offseason — some of them, perhaps, more serious than the team prefers to acknowledge — but Coppolella made clear in mid-November that Freeman wasn’t going anywhere. (At least, not until he first parted with his own right arm; no word whether such a move was ever discussed.) It is certainly still possible that Freeman will end up somewhere else at some point in the future, but there’s now a rather significant presumption against that scenario.

Deal of Note

Parting with Simmons — a young, up-the-middle player who had seemed a franchise cornerstone — was a much greater surprise than was moving Kimbrel, a trade that was more stunning for its timing. Coppolella took a lot of heat from fans who felt the organization’s contention timeline was being pushed back with the Simmons move, but made clear he felt the return was too good to pass up.

Newcomb is the gem of the deal, but he’s no sure thing. Still, the free-wheeling front office no doubt sees the benefit of stockpiling a large volume of live arms. Even if pitchers like Newcomb and Foltynewicz can’t harness their repertoire in a rotation, they might well become dominant late-inning relievers. And the stockpile could also be deployed to fill in the gaps on the position player side.

But what’s most interesting about the organization’s decision is less the quality of those young arms, which largely remains to be seen, so much as what it says about the organization’s view of the 26-year-old Simmons, who hasn’t developed at the plate, and up-and-coming Albies. There’s little question that Simmons has a high floor with his outstanding glove, but Atlanta may well have decided he’d never turn into even an average offensive producer and might eventually decline in the field in his late twenties. (The significant cost savings probably didn’t hurt, either.)

The Simmons deal looks quite a bit different in light of the organization’s future decisions, though that may in part be due to happenstance. It took nearly a full month for the Miller deal to come together, amidst an over-heating pitching market. But the addition of another exciting young shortstop in Swanson — who’s expected to be a quick mover as a polished college draftee — leaves good reason to believe that the organization can fill the position from its prospect ranks as soon as late 2016.

Overview

The totality of the offseason continues to highlight the Atlanta front office’s focus on value and flexibility. You can certainly quibble with one or another exchange, but the overall rebuilding efforts seem to have nicely balanced the desire to add upside with the imperative to begin plugging production onto the MLB roster in advance of the new ballpark opening next year.

With Freeman as the “rock” — he and Teheran are the lone holdovers from the organization’s last post-season appearance in 2013 — Atlanta hopes that it can begin a new ascendancy and return to being a perpetual contender. There’s an expectation of more TV money to come down the line, to say nothing of added financial opportunities in Cobb County, and that — along with a collection of young talent widely seen as one of the best in the game — ought to make last year’s 67-win season a low-water point. Of course, the organization was still careful to keep down costs this winter, possibly foregoing some opportunity for fringe contention.

What remains to be seen is precisely who’ll lead the renaissance, and how long it will take to mature. Coppolella and Hart will need to continue to be creative and opportunistic, while remaining increasingly cognizant of the need to make hard calls on balancing near and long-term prerogatives and choosing which players to rely upon.

If the club is even on the fringes of the playoff race this summer, will it sell or hold its many short-term veteran assets? Is Teheran a core piece or another chip to be cashed in? How aggressively should the prospects be moved up and how will service time factor in? When and how will the team begin pursuing established major leaguers in trade and free agency?

Regardless of how these questions are answered, it’s sure to be interesting.

How would you rate the Braves’ offseason work? (Mobile app users can click here to access the poll.)

How would you grade the Braves' offseason?

A 50% (1,367)
B 37% (1,006)
C 9% (249)
D 3% (84)
F 2% (43)

Total votes: 2,749

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

Andy MacPhail On The 25-Year Anniversary Of The Twins’ 1991 World Series Championship

By Chuck Wasserstrom | at March 21, 2016 11:00pm CDT

The Minnesota Twins surprised the baseball world in 1987 when they finished first in the American League West with an 85-77 record – just one season after going 71-91. But they didn’t stop there; the Twins stunned Detroit (98-64 in the regular season) to win the A.L. Championship Series, then shocked St. Louis (95-67) to bring home a World Series title.

Just four years later, after a complete retooling of the pitching staff, the 1991 Twins rebounded from a last-place finish the year before to win the A.L. West. After dropping nine of their first 11 games, they started putting things together – and eventually went on a 24-3 tear from May 28-June 25 (including a 15-game winning streak). By the time that stretch ended, they found themselves atop the divisional standings – and never entered a day’s action the rest of the season looking up at anyone. After defeating Toronto in the ALCS, they outlasted Atlanta in the worst-to-first World Series to bring home another trophy.

The architect of both championship clubs was Andy MacPhail, who was just 32 years old when he took over as Minnesota’s General Manager in August 1985. Now the President of the Philadelphia Phillies, MacPhail took some time to speak to MLB Trade Rumors about the 1991 Twins in this – the 25th anniversary of their last World Championship.

The pitching staff was completely overhauled between 1987 and 1991. The front three in 1987 were Frank Viola, Bert Blyleven and Les Straker; by 1991, Jack Morris, Scott Erickson and Kevin Tapani sat atop the rotation. Jeff Reardon was the closer in 1987; Rick Aguilera was in that role in 1991.

“We had to turn the entire pitching staff over in a four-year period, which was no easy feat,” MacPhail said. “As I recall, it was a little bit of everything – trades, free agent acquisitions, minor league free agents, major league free agents … Some came from the system, like Scott Erickson. Some were more high-profile free agents, like Jack Morris. But one of the most critical signings was a minor league free agent named Carl Willis – who ended up pitching the 8th inning and doing an extraordinary job for us. With Willis in the 8th and Aguilera in the 9th, we locked down the last two innings. It just goes to remind you that you have to get contributions from every potential artery you can to improve your club – not just rely on one aspect alone. Tapani and Aguilera were trades. Morris – major league free agent. Mark Guthrie – minor league free agent. They all combined in one year to help us completely turn over the pitching staff.”

The best pitcher on the 1987 team – and the most recognizable – was Frank Viola, who earned World Series MVP honors that season and went on to win the A.L. Cy Young Award in 1988. The trade of Viola at the July 1989 deadline turned out to be a big reason why the Twins won the 1991 World Series, as three pitchers acquired for him – Tapani, Aguilera and David West – became key members of the Minnesota staff.

“At the time we moved him, we were in last place, and it felt like we needed some volume as opposed to one great starter,” MacPhail said. “We had a difficult negotiation after the ’88 season. He ended up signing a three-year agreement, but we were probably going to have another negotiation that would not be easy. We just felt it was time to make a move. When he went over to the Mets, he won 20 games and pitched well there. Given our circumstances, we were looking for volume. We got Kevin Tapani – who did a tremendous job for us and was an integral piece of the ’91 puzzle. And we were able to add David West, who ended up starting and relieving for us over the course of ’91. And then another critical piece was Rick Aguilera, who was our closer and filled an important void for us.”

From a fan standpoint, moving such a popular player and person as Viola had to be tough. MacPhail was asked if it was harder to remove him from the team because Minnesota was a small market club.

“That was a harder one to do. We ended up doing it right at the deadline on July 31st,” MacPhail said. “Back then, it was a midnight deadline. We did it with minutes to spare. It was not an easy decision by any stretch. I remember just wanting to have to sit down for a moment and sort of collect myself. Independent of the market size, it clearly was not an easy decision. It was not going to be popular, because you are trading a known for multiple unknowns to some degree. While I felt conviction that it was the right thing for us to make the trade … I wouldn’t say I was conflicted, but I recognized back then that of all the trades I had made in my career, this one was going to have the most riding on it. If it was not successful, it was going to come back and bite you personally – probably in a big way. You trade a potential 20-game winner to a New York club, you better be getting something back.”

A year and a half later, the Twins were playing in the 1991 World Series. Vindication, or still a tad conflicted?

“No, the end game object is to be the last club standing. We were able to accomplish that. The pitchers we acquired in that deal were big parts of it. So I felt the actions of the organization were justified,” he said.

The Twins were a last-place club in 1990 but added some key players in the off-season – notably Jack Morris. In order to land Morris, MacPhail offered the veteran a player option. As pointed out recently by New York Daily News writer Anthony McCarron in a story about Yoenis Cespedes and the Mets, MacPhail is credited with the creation of the modern-day player opt-out clause.

“I had been trying to sign him all off season, and I think our offer was three years, $9 million,” MacPhail said. “We were into February and he still hadn’t signed anywhere. I came to the realization that if we were going to sign him, I was going to have to sweeten the pot in some respects. So I gave him what would be a player option at the end of the ’91 season. That was, as far as I know, the first player opt-out. We were committed to three years at $9 million, but if he wanted to leave after one year, then he could. The justification in my mind for doing that was I wasn’t sure if we were able to sign him without it. It’s not like we moved early; it’s the first week in February, and he still hasn’t agreed with us. So I wanted to do something to assure getting him … At the end, the one thing I do remember about that season, Scott Erickson – out of our farm system – would end up winning 20 games and was probably the most dominant starting pitcher I’ve ever seen for the first third of that year. And Jack Morris, at age 36, was probably the most dominant pitcher I saw the last third of the season. Tapani was solid all year. At any point of the season, we had at the very least two very good starters in our rotation.”

As opposed to the overhaul of the pitching staff, the core group of position players from 1987 through 1991 was largely unchanged. Kirby Puckett was in the midst of his Hall of Fame career. Kent Hrbek, Greg Gagne and Dan Gladden were important players on the field and in the clubhouse.

“Free agent signing-wise among position players, we added Chili Davis – who had a tremendous year hitting out of the middle of the lineup for us,” MacPhail recalled. “Then out of our system we had Chuck Knoblauch, who filled a black hole at second base and wound up being Rookie of the Year that season. He was a tremendous addition. Just to reiterate on a theme, using all avenues to improve your club, Shane Mack – who had a tremendous year for us in rightfield – he was a Rule 5 draft selection. So when I look back on that team, I’m thinking as an organization, we literally employed every method we could to improve the team and make it successful.”

The Twins went to camp in 1991 with a roster that would carry them through the season – as they didn’t make any big in-season moves. MacPhail was asked how he realistically looked at the club he had constructed when the squad reported to Florida for spring training.

“Improved. But I don’t know that we thought we were going to be World Champions, because we had so many variables,” MacPhail said. “I know when we spoke to our owner, Carl Pohlad, about the importance of Morris – even though we had gone into February – we wouldn’t have pressed it and stayed with it and ultimately given him the player-out had we not thought that he was capable of getting us to another level. Not just to be .500, but potentially make the team competitive. We were much more surprised, frankly, with the dramatic rise of the ’87 team from ’86. I was pretty confident that, if the starting pitching held, that we’d be OK. I do think we felt we would be improved, but I don’t think anybody goes in and thinks, ‘Oh my God, we’ve got a World Series team.’ We all know too much for that.”

It’s 25 years later. MacPhail has been with a few other organizations (Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies). He’s had success. He was asked if it’s still as fun now as it was back then.

“The scrutiny is greater today, but the positive of that is that the fans are so knowledgeable that they’re going to critique you not just on your won-loss record, but they’re going to critique you on how efficient you are. Which in some respects is nice,” MacPhail said. “They’re just so much more sophisticated. It’s not just about what you’ve spent. There is so much information available to them, and they know a great deal more than what an interested fan could know back in ’87 or ’91.”

—

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

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Interviews MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Newsstand Andy MacPhail

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Steve Adams | at March 21, 2016 7:00pm CDT

You can find all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The D-backs had perhaps the most surprising, aggressive offseason of any club in baseball in an effort to make a run at the NL West crown.

Major League Signings

Zack Greinke, RHP: Six years, $206.5MM
Tyler Clippard, RHP: Two years, $12.25MM
Total Spend: $218.75MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Brett Hayes, Kyle Drabek, Joaquin Arias, Wesley Wright, Sam LeCure, Rickie Weeks, Matt Capps, Scott Rice, Tim Stauffer, Jason Bourgeois

Trades and Claims

Acquired RHP Shelby Miller and LHP Gabe Speier from Braves in exchange for CF Ender Inciarte, SS Dansby Swanson and RHP Aaron Blair
Acquired SS Jean Segura, RHP Tyler Wagner and $4MM from Brewers in exchange for 2B Aaron Hill, RHP Chase Anderson and SS/2B Isan Diaz
Acquired C/OF Chris Herrmann from Twins in exchange for 1B/OF Daniel Palka
Acquired RHP Sam McWilliams from Phillies in exchange for RHP Jeremy Hellickson
Acquired RHP Cody Hall from Giants in exchange for cash considerations

Extensions

A.J. Pollock, CF: Two years, $10.25MM

Notable Losses

Ender Inciarte, Chase Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Oliver Perez, David Hernandez, Aaron Hill, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Allen Webster, Jhoulys Chacin

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, the rotation was known to be Arizona’s greatest need, but for financial reasons, the expectation was more that the D-backs would pursue second-tier arms like Kenta Maeda and Mike Leake than the names at the very top of the market. That, of course, changed in a matter of about 12 hours, which is reportedly the length of time it took the D-backs to sign Zack Greinke to a staggering six-year, $206.5MM contract after owner Ken Kendrick called his front office and gave the green light.

Unlike Greinke’s previous deal, this new contract doesn’t contain an opt-out. While a few million dollars of that sum is deferred, the Diamondbacks are paying Greinke more than $31MM annually, and the actual $34.4MM annual value of the deal (before deferrals) is the largest in Major League history. That represents a huge percentage of the spending capacity of an organization that has only once topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll. The Diamondbacks are betting that Greinke will not only age well, but continue to produce at an elite level — one near the collective 2.30 ERA that he posted over the life of his three years with the division-rival Dodgers. At the very least, they’re counting on him to perform over the life of the next three years, which is the amount of time for which the club controls standout center fielder A.J. Pollock and the team’s other blockbuster offseason addition: right-hander Shelby Miller.

In order to acquire three years of Miller, the D-backs parted with 2015 breakout Ender Inciarte, 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson and top prospect Aaron Blair. The price paid was astounding to most, and I’ll look at the Miller deal in full later in this review, but there’s little doubt that the D-backs have overwhelmingly improved upon the collection of starters with which they entered the 2015 season. Greinke, Miller and a full season of the excellent and underrated Patrick Corbin (who missed half of the ’15 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery) give the club one of the more impressive rotation trios in the big leagues.

Joining that group will be right-hander Rubby De La Rosa and left-hander Robbie Ray. While De La Rosa hasn’t yet cemented himself as a high-quality big league starter, he proved durable last season by racking up 188 1/3 innings and carries further upside. (If nothing else, his velocity and dominance over right-handers suggests that he could be converted to a successful reliever if he continues posting upper-4.00 ERAs.) Ray, acquired in the three-team deal that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees, somewhat quietly delivered a strong season, posting a 3.52 ERA and solid peripheral stats in 127 1/3 innings. Although they traded a near-MLB-ready arm in Blair, the D-backs still have Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley on the cusp of the Major Leagues, so there’s depth beyond the starting five should a need arise.

The Diamondbacks have also long been connected to bullpen help — most notably, Aroldis Chapman — but they instead brought in the highly durable Tyler Clippard on a two-year deal late in the offseason. Clippard has been baseball’s iron man in the pen. Dating back to the 2009 season, his 524 1/3 lead all big league relievers, and it’s not even close. Luke Gregerson ranks second on that list but is 44 1/3 innings behind; essentially, Clippard has thrown two-thirds of a season’s worth of innings more than any other reliever since establishing himself in 2009.

There are varying ways to interpret that durability, of course. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed the deal this offseason on our podcast, with Jeff viewing the deal as a solid value and a sensible move given the organization’s other acquisitions. I’m more skeptical, particularly in light of last year’s results. While Clippard delivered an excellent 2.92 ERA in his age-30 season, his strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate and velocity all trended in the wrong direction, and he posted a 21.2 percent ground-ball rate. If the innings have begun to catch up to Clippard and/or he posts a fly-ball rate near 60 percent at the homer-friendly Chase Field, the return on Arizona’s investment could be marginal. The D-backs were already burned once by acquiring an extreme fly-ball reliever in Addison Reed, and Clippard is an even more pronounced fly-ball arm. If, on the other hand, last year was an anomaly and Clippard pitches more like his 2010-14 self, the Diamondbacks will have deepened their ‘pen at a very reasonable price.

Continued analysis after the break …

Questions Remaining

For as much as they improved the pitching staff, the D-backs’ infield (beyond the elite Paul Goldschmidt) is suspect. Arizona got out from underneath a portion of the remaining Aaron Hill contract (and used the savings to sign Clippard, it should be noted), and in doing so added shortstop Jean Segura from the Brewers. Adding Segura would seem to displace defensive standout Nick Ahmed at shortstop, but it’s not clear that Segura is an upgrade. The 26-year-old looked like a star in the making back in 2013, when he turned in an All-Star first half with Milwaukee, but outside of those three months he’s never hit Major League pitching. Segura has a collective .250/.282/.328 batting line in 1,367 plate appearances dating back to the All-Star break that year, and his fielding can’t stack up with that of Ahmed. Barring a sudden offensive resurgence for Segura, the D-backs might well be better off playing Ahmed’s glove every day. And parting with the interesting Isan Diaz could sting down the line.

Second base is somewhat unsettled due to shoulder injuries that have sapped Chris Owings‘ production. Owings is young enough to still deliver on the promise he showed when he was first breaking into the Majors — he was the 2013 Pacific Coast League MVP — but the Snakes also looked at signing Howie Kendrick and trading for Brandon Phillips this winter. Phillips reportedly wouldn’t have waived his 10-and-5 rights, so the D-backs had little say in the matter, but Arizona could have and arguably should have signed Kendrick late in the offseason. ESPN’s Jayson Stark polled a number of big league execs on the best deals of the offseason, and Kendrick’s two-year, $20MM pact with the Dodgers routinely came up as one of the best value signings. Arizona had interest in Kendrick, but GM Dave Stewart flatly said to the media that he couldn’t part with his Competitive Balance Round A draft selection (No. 39 overall). That’s a puzzling stance for an organization that not only gave up its first-round pick to sign Greinke, but traded two former first-round picks (Swanson and Blair) to land Miller in addition to sending 2014 first-rounder Touki Toussaint to the Braves this past summer in order to shed Bronson Arroyo‘s contract. The Diamondbacks’ decision to prioritize the No. 39 pick over adding Kendrick at a bargain rate seems at odds with the exceptionally aggressive “win-now” stance taken over much of the winter.

Third base, too, is a question mark, but the D-backs have a potential regular in Jake Lamb. Should either Lamb or Owings falter this season, top prospect Brandon Drury is ready for big league action and is capable of playing third base and second base. Ahmed, too, seems more than capable of handling any of the three spots from a defensive standpoint — as could Segura, if he’s overtaken at short — so the club does have several young options.

The Diamondbacks must also determine which players are going to flank Pollock at the outfield corners. David Peralta is a good bet to man one corner spot after a brilliant 2015 season, but it seems unlikely that he’ll replicate last year’s .312/.371/.522 batting line. Peralta posted that outstanding slash with the aid of a likely-unsustainable .368 average on balls in play. That’s not to say that he won’t hit at all, as there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that he is indeed a weapon against right-handed pitching, but tempered expectations and a platoon partner are probably in order.

The other corner will have to be filled by one of Yasmany Tomas or Socrates Brito. Tomas was a flop in his first year of a $68.5MM contract, and the D-backs will need him to begin to produce now that Inciarte has been traded. Neither Tomas nor Peralta can match Inciarte’s defensive value, but a step forward in the power and on-base department for Tomas would recoup some of the lost value in the outfield. If he continues to struggle, the 23-year-old Brito has followed up a terrific 2015 season with a strong Spring Training and could be given a chance to win the job (perhaps relegating Tomas to a platoon-mate for Peralta).

Deal of Note

The Miller trade is probably the most talked-about swap of the offseason, due in large part to the three quality assets that the Diamondbacks gave to acquire the right-hander’s arbitration years. Miller was long projected to be a potential front-line starter as a prospect and posted a strong 3.02 ERA over 205 1/3 innings with the Braves last season. He’s absolutely a quality big league pitcher, but the price the Diamondbacks paid is one that most would expect to yield an ace-caliber pitcher. Miller’s ERA last season suggests that he could be near that level, but his strikeout rate was average, and his swinging-strike and walk rates worse than those of a league-average starter. The most appreciable gain made by Miller was in his ground-ball rate, which soared from 39 percent in 2013-14 to 47.7 percent last year. However, switching out Ahmed for Segura weakens the infield defense quite a bit and diminishes some of the value that would come from a sustained increase in grounders.

Fielding independent pitching metrics pegged Miller’s 2015 season anywhere from 3.45 (FIP) to 4.16 (SIERA). Miller has outpitched those metrics in two of his three big league seasons, but he did so in 2015 with the aid of a minuscule and unsustainable .203 average on balls in play over the first two months of the season. Miller’s ERA in that time was an incredible 1.48, but he posted a 3.77 ERA over the final four months of the 2015 campaign. That stacks up with what Miller provided the Cardinals in 2014, and if that’s the pitcher that Miller is, then the Diamondbacks overpaid considerably.

In fact, even if Miller replicates his 2015 season, it’s not entirely clear that Arizona got decidedly better. Inciarte was outstanding last year, hitting .303/.338/.408 to go along with some of the game’s best outfield defense and plus value on the bases. The club doesn’t have a clear-cut replacement in line for him, with Tomas, who played well below replacement level in 2015, and the untested Brito as the likeliest candidates to step into Inciarte’s vacated spot. Inciarte may not repeat his own offensive success, but his glove and value on the bases give him a relatively high floor, and he has five years of club control (two of which are inexpensive pre-arbitration years) to Miller’s three.

I’d prefer Miller to Inciarte in a given season, but three years of the former for five years of the latter carries comparable value, and the D-backs also surrendered a highly-regarded, near-MLB ready starter in Blair along with a premium talent in Swanson — a potential starting shortstop who was the first overall pick just six months prior. The pressure is on Arizona to win now and for Miller to be a significant component of their success, because the trade has the potential to look like a coup for the Braves in fairly short order.

Overview

Adding Greinke, Miller and a fully-rehabbed Corbin to the rotation in front of returning young arms De La Rosa and Ray unequivocally gives the D-backs a better rotation than they had at any point last season. The question for the Snakes is whether adding Miller at the expense of Inciarte is a net gain for the 2016 season and whether the complementary pieces around the lynchpins of their lineup (Goldschmidt and Pollock) can produce enough to take this club to the playoffs. D-backs supporters are quick to point to all the additions that were made to a roster that already won 79 games last year. However, Inciarte was no small part of the club’s 2015 success, and it’s certainly possible that the incumbent outfielders (Peralta in particular) will struggle to perform at such a high level in 2016. That’s not to say that Pollock’s success was a mirage — I’ve long contested that he is among baseball’s most unheralded stars — but repeating a roughly seven-WAR season is no small feat even for a truly elite talent, and he’s been slowed by elbow issues this spring.

The fact remains that the D-backs look like an improved club, and steps forward from young talent like Lamb, Owings and Drury as well as a breakout from a player like Tomas or a resurgence by Segura would go a long way toward catapulting the team up the ranks of the National League West. For an organization with such a clear desire to win now, however, there are a lot of players that need to prove themselves up and down the lineup in order to support what should be a strong pitching staff. And, if the club doesn’t realize its championship aspirations in the coming years, the sacrifice of controllable assets that yielded the present roster could be increasingly painful in retrospect.

How would you rate the Diamondbacks’ offseason work? (Mobile app users can click here to access the poll.)

How would you grade the D-Backs' offseason?

B 34% (543)
A 27% (435)
C 19% (312)
D 13% (213)
F 7% (115)

Total votes: 1,618

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Arizona Diamondbacks MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

By Zachary Links | at March 20, 2016 7:26pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Brett Ballantini caught up with White Sox GM Rick Hahn in an exclusive interview. In the Q&A, Hahn spoke about prospect Tim Anderson, the differences between this offseason and the previous one, and much much more.
In Dunedin, Florida, Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin spoke to MLBTR about his trip through free agency prior to the 2015 season. “It wasn’t stressful or anything. [Free agency] has never really been a stressful process for me,” Martin said. “I don’t have any kids or anything like that. I don’t have any family, so there’s nothing for me to answer to. The ability for me to play at home, for the team I grew up cheering for, that always had a good ring to it for me. The other options were [the Dodgers] and the Cubs, and those are really good places to play, so it was all positive for me. I really enjoyed the process this time.”
On this week’s edition of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, host Jeff Todd spoke with Washington Post national baseball writer Barry Svrluga about some of the biggest storylines surrounding the Nationals in 2016. Jeff also spoke with MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth to discuss what’s ahead for the Pirates. A new episode of the podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
Steve Adams looked at the Tigers’ aggressive offseason and noted that newly-elevated GM Al Avila is continuing the team’s win-now approach. The Tigers initially looked to replace Yoenis Cespedes on the cheap, but they went on to ink Justin Upton to a lucrative deal which could potentially only last for two seasons. The Tigers also pounced early in free agency with the addition of starter Jordan Zimmermann.
The Cubs are eager to win in 2016 and they laid out major money this winter to help accomplish that goal. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran down the team’s moves, including their free agent pickups of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey, and Dexter Fowler. In the reader poll at the close of the piece, more than 77% of you gave the Cubs an “A” for their winter dealings.
There’s a new GM in Seattle and a whole lot of change on the roster. Charlie looked back on the Mariners’ offseason and the moves that were made to help support the club’s talented core.
Tim compiled this year’s list of out-of-options players using MLBTR’s sources.
The Giants surprised many by signing both Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this offseason. Jeff looked back at those significant signings in addition to the other moves made by Bobby Evans & Co. In the team’s “deal of note” section, Jeff broke down the lucrative extension for Brandon Crawford.

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MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By charliewilmoth | at March 19, 2016 4:55pm CDT

In his first offseason on the job, new GM Jerry Dipoto aggressively turned over the Mariners’ roster, augmenting a talented core with a collection of complementary pieces that should be better fits than last year’s were.

Major League Signings

Hisashi Iwakuma, SP (re-signed): one year, $12MM, plus club/vesting options for 2017 and 2018
Nori Aoki, OF: one year, $5.5MM
Chris Iannetta, C: one year, $4.25MM (plus 2017 option)
Steve Cishek, RP: two years, $10MM plus up to $3.5MM in bonuses
Franklin Gutierrez, OF (re-signed): one year, $1.5MM plus up to $4.25MM in bonuses
Guillermo Heredia, OF: Major League deal (around $500K)

Notable Minor League Signings

Dae-ho Lee, Ryan Cook, Dainer Moreira, Gaby Sanchez (since released), Joel Peralta, Efren Navarro, Justin De Fratus, Blake Parker

Trades And Claims

Acquired P Nate Karns, P C.J. Riefenhauser and OF Boog Powell from Rays for SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison and P Danny Farquhar
Acquired 1B Adam Lind from Brewers for P Carlos Herrera, P Daniel Missaki and P Freddy Peralta
Acquired P Wade Miley and P Jonathan Aro from Red Sox for P Carson Smith and P Roenis Elias
Acquired P Joaquin Benoit from Padres for P Enyel De Los Santos and SS Nelson Ward
Acquired OF Leonys Martin and P Anthony Bass (since released) from Rangers for P Tom Wilhelmsen, OF James Jones and IF/OF Patrick Kivlehan
Acquired IF Luis Sardinas from Brewers for OF Ramon Flores
Acquired P Evan Scribner from Athletics for P Trey Cochran-Gill
Acquired C Steve Clevenger from Orioles for 1B Mark Trumbo and P C.J. Riefenhauser
Acquired P Joe Wieland from Dodgers for SS Erick Mejia
Acquired P Ryne Harper and cash from Braves for P Jose Ramirez
Claimed C Rob Brantly from White Sox
Claimed P Cody Martin from Athletics
Claimed OF Daniel Robertson from Angels

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Miller, Morrison, Farquhar, Trumbo, Smith, Elias, Wilhelmsen, Jones, Joe Beimel, Logan Kensing

Needs Addressed

Many new GMs begin their tenures by completely revamping their new franchises, but that wasn’t necessary for Jerry Dipoto, who took over a 76-win Mariners team that was merely disappointing, rather than hopeless. Dipoto inherited Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz and Taijuan Walker, a group that would form a good starting point for any new GM.

Accordingly, Dipoto spent the offseason retooling, rather than rebuilding. After replacing Lloyd McClendon in the manager’s chair with former fellow Angels exec Scott Servais, Dipoto quickly took to the task of turning the Mariners’ talented core into a contender. Most of the talent the Mariners received this winter was acquired with the present in mind. Despite the fact that this offseason wasn’t a massive change of direction for the franchise, however, it was a very busy one.

One of Dipoto’s most crucial moves, of course, was to re-sign one of the previous administration’s key players. In early December, Hisashi Iwakuma had agreed to a three-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers, but the Dodgers tried to adjust the deal due to an issue with his physical. Iwakuma then opted to return to Seattle for significantly less guaranteed money — just $12MM, even less than the qualifying offer he’d rejected earlier in the offseason. The deal also contains two relatively cheap club/vesting options, giving the Mariners additional value. Iwakuma got a no-trade clause and the opportunity for bigger paydays if he stays healthy, but his deal was, overall, a remarkably cheap one for the Mariners, given how effective Iwakuma has been since arriving from Japan prior to the 2012 season. Iwakuma has, thus far, made three spring starts without incident, so whatever gave the Dodgers pause hasn’t yet shown itself to be an issue, and the Mariners’ modest upfront commitment protects them in case he does get hurt.

Dipoto’s first significant move, though, completed in early November, was to ship Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Danny Farquhar to Tampa for Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser and Boog Powell. Later, Dipoto sent Riefenhauser and Mark Trumbo to the Orioles for catcher Steve Clevenger. The two deals addressed two key issues with the 2015 Mariners — that they had a logjam at shortstop, and that they were a mismatched and below-average defense team with too many all-bat, no-glove players.

At 26, shortstop Miller still has promise, but he struggled defensively in 2015, to the point that he frequently played outfield last season while the younger and slicker-fielding Ketel Marte played short. The team also still has Chris Taylor in the fold. So the Rays trade allowed the Mariners to commit more thoroughly to Marte and avoid the roster headache of what to do with Miller. The Mariners also managed to unload Morrison, who’d hit a mere .225/.302/.383 in 2015 while providing little defensive value. Morrison seems likely to rebound somewhat in the coming season, but he doesn’t appear likely to be much more than a replacement-level player. The M’s might have sold somewhat low on Farquhar, who is better than his 5.12 2015 ERA suggests, but his velocity and strikeout rate have dipped in each of the last two seasons.

In return for three players for whom they didn’t have a pressing need, the Mariners received a package centered on Nate Karns, a useful starter with five years of team control remaining. Karns’ peripherals in 2015 didn’t quite support his 3.67 ERA, thanks in part to a high walk rate. But he’s a good bet to provide his share of strikeouts and give the Mariners 150 solid innings. They also got Boog Powell, an outfield prospect with modest power but real on-base skills who could arrive at some point during the season.

The third player in that trade was Riefenhauser, who headed to Baltimore along with Trumbo in a move seemingly designed to clear salary and reduce roster headaches. Steve Clevenger, the Mariners’ return in the trade, is a low-upside backup catcher, and Trumbo certainly has usable power, particularly against lefties. But he was due a hefty 2016 salary through the arbitration process ($9.2MM, as it turned out), and his lack of defensive value and issues getting on base created nearly as many problems as his power solved.

A week after the Trumbo trade, the Mariners sent three very young pitching prospects (Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki and Freddy Peralta) to Milwaukee for Adam Lind, who will be the Mariners’ new primary first baseman. Lind needs to be platooned, and like Morrison and Trumbo, he isn’t a superlative defender. He is, however, a significantly better hitter than either one. Trumbo’s stats will probably improve this year heading from Safeco Field to Camden Yards, and Lind’s are likely to dip heading from Miller Park to Seattle, but he’s still a quality player whose on-base skills should help the Mariners’ lineup.

As for the three prospects heading to the Brewers, it’s worth noting that Dipoto was very new to the GM job at the time of the trade, and there’s a bit of danger in not knowing exactly what you’re trading, especially with players like Herrera, Missaki and Peralta, all of whom have yet to turn 20 and posted very good peripheral numbers in the low minors last year. Still, Dipoto’s Mariners probably had a clearer read than anyone else on those players, particularly since Dipoto retained many of the team’s key front office execs.

More analysis after the break.

The Mariners are still sorting through their options for a platoon partner with Lind, with Jesus Montero and perhaps Stefen Romero getting consideration. Another contender for the job is Dae-ho Lee, who signed a minor-league deal with the M’s after hitting .282/.368/.524 in Japan last year. At age 33, Lee doesn’t figure to be an impact player in the long term, but he might have a bit of upside the typical minor-league signee doesn’t.

Other Mariners offseason moves, meanwhile, were geared toward improving the team’s outfield defense, which frequently featured players like Trumbo, Miller and Cruz in 2015 and ranked among the league’s worst. The Mariners re-signed Franklin Gutierrez, who’s now limited to a corner and isn’t the defensive wizard he once was but who still plays quality defense in left and hit a surprising (although surely unsustainable) .292/.354/.620 in limited duty last year. They also signed Nori Aoki, who got a one-year deal with a 2017 option that can vest under various circumstances related to the concussion issues that dogged him last year. Aoki received just $5.5MM guaranteed, and it appears he continues to be undervalued by the market despite being a consistently solid player who produces value with his on-base ability and defense.

The M’s also shipped a package headlined by Tom Wilhelmsen to Texas for Leonys Martin (and Anthony Bass, who’s already gone). Martin had a dismal offensive season in 2015, hitting .219/.264/.313, but at 28, he should rebound somewhat, and he provides value with his strong center field defense and his baserunning. All told, the additions of Aoki and Martin should make the Mariners’ outfield defense considerably stronger, with those two forming a new-look outfield along with Seth Smith. (Late in the offseason, the Mariners also added Cuban center fielder Guillermo Heredia on a cheap big-league contract, potentially giving them yet another good defensive outfielder, albeit one who doesn’t seem likely to hit much.)

Wilhelmsen saved 67 games for the Mariners between 2012 and 2015, but has had control problems and isn’t a dominant reliever. The Mariners will, in effect, replace him at closer with Steve Cishek, who signed for two years and $10MM in December. Cishek was suffering through a miserable 2015 with the Marlins when he headed to St. Louis in July. His results improved with the Cardinals, but his peripherals remained underwhelming, and his velocity in 2015 was about 1.5 MPH lower than it previously had been. The Mariners will hope to get something nearer to the terrific performances Cishek gave the Marlins from 2011 through 2014.

If they don’t get the results they’re hoping for from Cishek, they also added a backup plan in Joaquin Benoit. Benoit is 38, and like Cishek, his peripherals took a tumble in 2015. He remained effective overall, although going forward, his age and sagging peripherals make him likely to post ERAs somewhere in the threes, significantly higher than his 1.98 ERA over the last three seasons. To control Benoit for a year, the Mariners gave up Enyel De Los Santos (a lottery-ticket low-minors arm, but one more highly regarded than Herrera, Missaki or Peralta) and Nelson Ward (a 23-year-old infielder who had a decent year in 2015 at Classes A and A+).

In another bullpen-boosting move, the Mariners added righty Evan Scribner in a minor deal with Oakland. Scribner is coming off a 2015 season in which he struck out a remarkable 64 batters against only four walks, but somehow gave up 14 home runs. He allowed those taters in a ballpark even less friendly to home runs than Safeco Field is, but it isn’t as if Seattle is a bad place for a gopherball-prone pitcher, and Scribner’s good Triple-A numbers and control suggest there might be a quality reliever in there somewhere. It will, however, be awhile before the Mariners find out what they’ve got, since Scribner appears likely to start the season on the DL with a lat injury.

In the midst of adding or retaining a variety of outfielders, the Mariners shipped Ramon Flores — who they’d only recently gotten from the Yankees in the Dustin Ackley trade — to the Brewers for infielder Luis Sardinas. Flores possesses a bit of offensive upside, but he’s out of options, and given all the outfield help the Mariners ended up finding, he didn’t figure to have a significant role with them. Sardinas, meanwhile, has obvious offensive issues but is very young, optionable, and already in possession of a bit of big-league experience.

The Mariners also added a new catcher in Chris Iannetta, who’d previously played under Dipoto with the Angels. Iannetta received a $4.25MM guarantee for 2016, with the Mariners receiving a club/vesting 2017 option. Iannetta hit a poor .188/.293/.335 last season, but there’s hope that he can bounce back somewhat after producing above-average offense for his position in the previous several seasons. Also, his framing improved significantly in 2015, via StatCorner, so he could add value there as well. In any case, the additions of Iannetta and Clevenger mean that Mike Zunino — the third overall pick in the 2012 draft — will have to start the year in the minors after a terrible 2015 season as the Mariners’ regular catcher.

Questions Remaining

The 2015 Mariners bullpen ranked among the league’s worst, pitching to a 4.15 ERA despite the comfy enrivons of Safeco Field, and they’ve lost arguably their three most effective relievers from last season in Carson Smith, Mark Lowe (who was actually traded in late July) and Wilhelmsen. Adding Cishek and Benoit helps, but Cishek is coming off an uneven season and Benoit is quite old. It wouldn’t be a surprise if 25-year-old righty Tony Zych quickly emerged as a top young reliever after he struck out 24 batters while walking three in a brief trial with the Mariners last year, but overall, the bullpen doesn’t look strong. The quality of a bullpen isn’t always what it appears to be in March, though, and that it’s not usually that difficult to upgrade one’s bullpen at the trade deadline.

There are also questions about how much offense the Mariners will get from Iannetta, who’s old enough that his previously fine offensive performances might not return, or from Marte, who’s still just 22 and doesn’t have an overwhelming minor-league track record. And while the Mariners’ new outfield looks like a much better fit than last year’s for the team’s pitching staff, it’s fair to wonder how much offense they’ll provide — Aoki, Martin and Seth Smith combined for a mere 22 home runs last year.

Deal Of Note

In early December, the Mariners sent Carson Smith and lefty Roenis Elias to Boston in return for lefty Wade Miley and righty Jonathan Aro. Each side got a starter and a reliever, but the most interesting players in the deal are Smith, a reliever, and Miley, a starter. (Elias has five years of service remaining before free agency and has been modestly effective in parts of two seasons in the bigs but lacks upside; Aro pitched well in the high minors last year but likely will serve as bullpen depth for the Mariners.)

Smith has five years of control remaining before free agency and was dominant last season, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. He’ll be a key element of a dynamic Red Sox bullpen. Miley, meanwhile, is a mid-rotation starter whose best attributes are his durability (he’s pitched a total of nearly 800 innings in the last four seasons), his ability to get ground balls, and his reasonable contract (which keeps him under control through 2018).

Dipoto probably knows Miley better than most, having drafted him eight years ago while in the Diamondbacks’ front office. But giving up Smith to get Miley was a questionable move, particularly during an offseason in which dominating relievers like Ken Giles netted considerable returns. The additions of Miley and Karns and the re-signing of Iwakuma this offseason leave the Mariners well-positioned to weather any rotation issues this year — with those three joining Hernandez, Walker, James Paxton and Mike Montgomery, the team has more than enough depth to go around (although Montgomery, who is out of options, appears to be in the process of moving to the bullpen). But at what cost? Reliever performance is volatile, and starters generally are more valuable than relievers, but Smith was legitimately among the game’s best bullpen arms last season. Particularly in a free agent market in which non-closing relievers cashed in more than ever (with Darren O’Day, Ryan Madson, Tony Sipp and others receiving hefty new contracts), the Mariners might have been better off keeping Smith, or at least seeking a greater return. One wonders if the Smith trade would have happened had the Mariners known they’d eventually get Iwakuma back on a bargain deal.

Overview

The 2015 Mariners were a talented team that didn’t win because they leaned too hard on weak defenders and weak bullpen arms, and because they awarded a fair amount of playing time to position players who struggled (like former top prospects Zunino and Ackley). The 2016 bullpen could continue to be a problem, but Dipoto’s busy offseason addressed the other issues, making the Mariners a better defensive team and providing them with better depth. If their offense holds up, they appear to have a reasonable shot at contending in 2016.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

By Steve Adams | at March 19, 2016 12:15am CDT

This is the latest installment of our Offseason in Review series. You can see a full index of the series here.

After a very brief retooling effort at last year’s trade deadline, the Tigers, led by new GM Al Avila, entered the offseason with a characteristic win-now approach and spent heavily.

Major League Signings

Justin Upton, OF: Six years, $132.75MM (opt-out clause after second season)
Jordan Zimmermann, SP: Five years, $110MM
Mike Pelfrey, SP: Two years, $16MM
Mark Lowe, RP: Two years, $11MM
Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS: One year, $2MM
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C: One year, $507,500 (Marlins paying the remainder of Salatlamacchia’s salary)
Total spend: $272.26MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Preston Guilmet, Nate Schierholtz, John Mayberry Jr., Bobby Parnell, Casey McGehee, Lucas Harrell, Jordany Valdespin, Lendy Castillo

Trades and Claims

Acquired LHP Justin Wilson from Yankees in exchange for RHP Luis Cessa, RHP Chad Green
Acquired RHP Francisco Rodriguez from Brewers in exchange for 2B Javier Betancourt, C Manny Pina
Acquired CF Cameron Maybin from Braves in exchange for LHP Ian Krol, LHP Gabe Speier
Acquired minor league 2B Kody Eaves from Angels in exchange for 3B Jefry Marte

Extensions

J.D. Martinez, OF: Two years, $18.5MM

Notable Losses

Rajai Davis, Alfredo Simon, Al Alburquerque, Alex Avila, Tom Gorzelanny, Kyle Lobstein, Joe Nathan, Randy Wolf (retired)

Needs Addressed

Though the Tigers entered the offseason with a new GM, the club’s M.O. was as familiar as ever; the words “lengthy rebuild” aren’t in the Detroit vernacular, and former GM Dave Dombrowski’s trades of David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria are probably the closest thing we’ll see to a rebuilding process under owner Mike Ilitch. Ilitch is one of the most aggressive owners in baseball, and another quarter-billion dollars spent on player salary this offseason speaks to that point. Ilitch candidly noted at a press conference this offseason that he “doesn’t care” about spending money. His goal is to put a winner on the field, and Avila acted aggressively in an effort to make that dream a reality.

Price, Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene were all trade acquisitions made to help bolster the pitching staff in the final 13 months of Dombrowski’s tenure, but Price was traded, Simon struggled prior to hitting the open market, and injuries cut Greene’s season short. The Tigers clearly needed rotation help despite having landed a pair of MLB-ready starters for Price in Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, and Avila made his first free-agent signing a significant one in the form of a five-year, $110MM contract for Jordan Zimmermann. The 2015 season came with some red flags for Zimmermann — notably, a diminished strikeout rate and slightly increased walk rate — but he’s averaged 203 high quality innings per season across the past four years, and the Tigers will be counting on more of the same for the foreseeable future.

That track record of quality innings isn’t there for Mike Pelfrey, but the Tigers clearly believe he’s capable of delivering, as they inked him to a two-year, $16MM contract to serve as the club’s fourth starter, falling in line behind Justin Verlander, Zimmermann and Anibal Sanchez. (Norris is the favorite to hold down the final spot.) The Pelfrey contract was inexpensive compared to many of the other deals for starting pitchers that we saw this offseason, but it still raised some eyebrows; Pelfrey is a former top pick that settled in as a durable innings eater for the 2008-11 Mets, but he has a 4.94 ERA with largely uninspiring peripherals since returning from 2012 Tommy John surgery. As a ground-ball pitcher, he’ll benefit from Jose Iglesias and Ian Kinsler, but a more patient approach to that second rotation spot might’ve better served the club.

Cespedes’ departure created a need for the Tigers in the outfield, and the club initially looked to address the option somewhat on the cheap. While Braves GM John Coppolella indicated that he wasn’t interested in trading Cameron Maybin to clear salary, that seems to have been one of the more significant factors in the trade that sent Maybin from Atlanta back to the Tigers (his original organization), as Avila parted with a fairly modest price of lefty relievers Ian Krol and Gabe Speier to land him. The Maybin deal, at the time, was said by Avila to likely signal the end of the club’s outfield pursuits, but over the holidays, Ilitch became convinced that the club needed another big bat, and Justin Upton was signed to a six-year deal shortly thereafter. He’ll give the club a bat comparable to the one they lost in Cespedes, pushing Maybin into a platoon with Anthony Gose in center field.

Upton’s deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season, and while he’s stated that he signed the deal to come to Detroit for six years, it’s difficult to imagine him playing well for a couple of seasons and neglecting to exercise the clause. Upton will play the coming season at age 28, so there’s no reason to expect a decline in his bat, which has been about 25 percent better than the league average across the past seven seasons.

Revamping the bullpen — a perennial Achilles heel for otherwise strong Tigers clubs — was a goal for Avila in his first winter in control as well. To that end, he acquired an experienced and still-highly-effective late-inning arm in Francisco Rodriguez, pairing him with an excellent left-handed setup option in Justin Wilson and a resurgent right-handed option in Mark Lowe. K-Rod and Wilson were acquired without sacrificing any of the organization’s top 15 or so prospects — a nice value for Avila & Co., especially considering the fact that Wilson has three years of control remaining. Lowe’s two-year deal will be addressed at greater length below.

Questions Remaining

The Tigers will be paying $70MM for their top four starting pitchers this season, but outside of Zimmermann, none of the four has a strong track record in recent seasons. Verlander looked sharp late in the 2015 campaign, logging a 2.27 ERA over his final 99 1/3 innings, but his velocity remained in the 92-93 mph range, and it seems unlikely that it will ever reach its previous heights. Sanchez has battled injuries over the past two seasons and has yet to appear in a Grapefruit League game, in part due to triceps inflammation. Pelfrey, of course, struggled throughout the majority of his Twins tenure, as previously noted.

Detroit’s infield is mostly set, but third base remains a question. Nick Castellanos improved in the field and showed a bit more power in his second season last year, but he still graded out below average overall with the glove (-9 DRS, -10 UZR) and at the plate (98 OPS+, 94 wRC+). Castellanos’ slugging percentage was about league average for a third baseman, but his OBP was below both the league average and the average third baseman. Detroit is still committed to its former top prospect, but a poor first half could lead Avila to seek an upgrade on the trade market this summer.

In Upton and J.D. Martinez, the Tigers have one of the more powerful corner-outfield duos in all of Major League Baseball, but the center field platoon of Maybin and Gose comes with some question marks. Both players have the speed to cover plenty of ground but rate poorly in the eyes of defensive metrics (which Gose bizarrely called a “scam” designed to “make money” this spring rather than examine his game for areas of potential improvement). There are offensive questions about the pair, as well; Gose fanned at a 27 percent clip in each of the past two seasons, and neither player has particularly strong career marks with the bat, even when holding the platoon advantage. In fact, Maybin’s career numbers versus lefties are worse than his numbers against right-handed pitching (though that trend reversed last year in Atlanta).

From a longer-term perspective, the larger question in the outfield may be whether the team is able to retain Martinez beyond his remaining two years of control. The extension for Martinez, who has quickly risen to stardom in Detroit, didn’t extend club control and rather only locked in the price tags on his remaining arbitration seasons. As I examined at the time Martinez acknowledged ongoing extension talks, the Tigers already have more than $122MM committed to the 2018 payroll, $105MM committed in 2019 and $78MM committed in 2020. Those numbers, of course, would decline if Upton were to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract, but there’s no firm way of knowing he’ll do so. A healthy Upton almost certainly will, but injuries or an unexpected decline in performance could alter the outcome.

Tacking on an extra $18-20MM per season for a Martinez extension (and that’s estimating on the conservative end of a theoretical AAV for an extension) to each of those seasons significantly limits the maneuverability to fill out a competitive roster with useful pieces. Were Upton’s deal guaranteed to be coming off the books, a Martinez extension wouldn’t be quite so treacherous. However, this is this is one situation that highlights the fact that opt-outs carry risk not only in the form of a declining or injured player opting in (and thus becoming overpaid) but also in the form of making the waters of long-term planning difficult to navigate.

Deal of Note

Mark Lowe’s dominant numbers with the Mariners made the minor league deal he signed last offseason into one of the most notable bargain pickups of the year and ultimately turned him into a trade chip for the M’s in July. The Tigers rewarded Lowe’s age-32 renaissance with a two-year, $11MM contract, demonstrating that they were undeterred by his lesser numbers with the Blue Jays and convinced that he could serve as a quality ‘pen piece through 2017.

While there’s certainly reason to believe that’s the case — Lowe’s velocity was back at its 2009-11 levels and he showed excellent control — we saw similar resurgences rewarded with markedly smaller contracts later in the offseason. Players that sign early, especially relievers, will almost always come out better than those who wait to sign into the new year, but the fact that rebounds from Joe Blanton and the much younger Trevor Cahill resulted in one-year deals worth less than $5MM raises the question of whether the Tigers would’ve been better served to wait out the relief market a bit. Of course, there was also at least one far more lavish expenditure on a revitalized bullpen arm (tip of the cap to Ryan Madson), and if Lowe continues his excellence, the Tigers won’t mind having paid at a higher rate.

Overview

Avila’s first offseason at the helm looked fairly similar to some of the recent offseasons under the Dombrowski-led Tigers: a number of high-priced, long-term expenditures designed to win in the present despite a considerable amount of long-term risk. Eventually, the Tigers are going to be faced with an aged roster of overpaid former stars, as it’s just not likely that Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Jordan Zimmermann, etc. will continue to be productive into their mid-to-late 30s. That could be compounded if the club ultimately inks Martinez to a lengthier extension.

It’s been written for years (including here) that that long-term ledger could lead to dark days in Detroit, but those days haven’t yet arrived. Though they have question marks in the rotation and at a few spots on the diamond, the Tigers have what looks to be an improved bullpen as well as a strong lineup capable of compensating for some of the questions that permeate the starting staff. And, of course, if the Tigers feel they need rotation reinforcement come summer, Ilitch will almost certainly green-light a win-now approach for Avila and his staff in July. I wouldn’t call Detroit the division favorite, but the AL Central should be a tightly contested bunch this year, and the Tigers look poised to return to the midst of the fray after a rare sell-off last July.

Let’s turn this one over to the audience with a poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How would you grade the Tigers' offseason?

B 49% (2,031)
A 33% (1,362)
C 13% (550)
F 3% (111)
D 2% (95)

Total votes: 4,149

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | at March 18, 2016 7:00am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Cubs added tons of veteran talent to an already-strong team, mostly through free agency.

Major League Signings

Jason Heyward, RF: eight years, $184MM. Heyward can opt out after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019. Includes deferred money.
Ben Zobrist, 2B: four years, $56MM
John Lackey, SP: two years, $32MM
Dexter Fowler, CF: one year, $13MM. Includes $9MM mutual option for 2017 with a $5MM buyout.
Trevor Cahill, RP: one year, $4.25MM
Andury Acevedo, RP: one year, $700K. Split contract, worth $200K in minors.
Total spend: $289.95MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Aaron Crow, Stephen Fife, Brandon Gomes, Jean Machi, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, Manny Parra, Jonathan Pettibone, Tim Federowicz, Jesus Guzman, Munenori Kawasaki, Kristopher Negron, Matt Murton, Juan Perez, Shane Victorino

Trades And Claims

Claimed RP Ryan Cook off waivers from Red Sox (Cubs non-tendered Cook on December 2nd)
Claimed RP Jack Leathersich off waivers from Mets (Leathersich elected free agency and was signed to a minor league deal by the Cubs in December)
Acquired RP Spencer Patton from Rangers for 2B Frandy De La Rosa
Claimed RP Edgar Olmos off waivers from Mariners (Olmos claimed by Orioles from Cubs on December 10th, (claimed back by Cubs on December 23rd, outrighted by Cubs in February)
Acquired RP Rex Brothers from Rockies for P Wander Cabrera (Cubs released Brothers on March 10th)
Acquired P Adam Warren and IF Brendan Ryan from Yankees for 2B Starlin Castro (Cubs released Ryan on December 23rd)
Claimed RP C.J. Riefenhauser off waivers from Orioles
Acquired P Aaron Brooks from Athletics for OF/2B Chris Coghlan

Notable Losses

Starlin Castro, Chris Coghlan, Frandy De La Rosa, Wander Cabrera, Chris Denorfia, Jonathan Herrera, Dan Haren, Jason Motte, James Russell, Tsuyoshi Wada, Tommy Hunter, Fernando Rodney

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, it was no secret that the Cubs had a middle infield surplus with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Starlin Castro. With four years and $38MM remaining on his contract, Castro was the most likely to go. The Yankees were a natural match, having shown interest in Castro during the summer. As Yankees GM Brian Cashman told John Harper of the New York Daily News, the Cubs initially asked for outfielder Brett Gardner and were rebuffed. Then, after a month of the Cubs pestering Cashman for swingman Adam Warren, the Yankees gave in and the trade agreement was reached. Still, the Castro trade was delayed for a few days, as the Cubs were simultaneously attempting to sign Ben Zobrist as a free agent.

The Cubs achieved Theo Epstein’s “multiple-bank shot,” moving on from Castro after six big league seasons. I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization. Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs went with veteran Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May. Zobrist served as Joe Maddon‘s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after establishing himself in the Majors with the Rays. While Zobrist may not be the defensive asset he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player. The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14MM a year, despite the riskiness of signing a player through age 38. He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s deal is covered. The Cubs can rest assured that competition was stiff for Zobrist, with the Mets and Giants willing to go to $60MM and the Nationals making a play.

With the addition of Warren, the Cubs proved that Castro did indeed have mild positive trade value despite the middle infielder’s contract and up-and-down career. In Warren, the Cubs received a useful pitcher who is under club control for three years. The 28-year-old can serve as an effective reliever or credible fifth starter depending on the Cubs’ needs.

The Cubs’ primary offseason need was to add an impact starting pitcher. Though Epstein later told WEEI the Cubs were “very interested” in the best available option, free agent David Price, the Cubs’ president also admitted, “We ended up a distant third” in the bidding. Shortly after Price’s agreement with the Red Sox, the Cubs reached an agreement 37-year-old veteran starter John Lackey on a two-year deal. Epstein had previously signed Lackey as Red Sox GM six years prior. As Epstein explained in that same WEEI interview, “There’s risk inherent in longer pitching contracts, and having a pitcher the caliber of John Lackey on a two-year deal was a no-brainer for us.” I thought Lackey would command a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying offer attached, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

By the Winter Meetings, the Cubs had made significant improvements to an already-strong club, without surrendering prospects or adding a major financial burden (at least for a big-market team). Soon, it became apparent the Cubs’ biggest move was yet to come. They were again tangling with the Cardinals and Nationals for a free agent: Jason Heyward. We’ll have more on the Heyward signing in the Deal Of Note section.

With the Cubs adding Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward, the rich got richer. Heyward was penciled in at a new position, center field, since Dexter Fowler was expected to sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Cubs already had Jorge Soler as the right field incumbent. It appears that the Cubs kicked around a lot of trade possibilities, likely involving Soler and Baez. Meanwhile, the team quietly re-added Trevor Cahill on a one-year deal. Cahill turned down a more definitive rotation offer from the Pirates to stay with the Cubs, even though he seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen. Cahill’s contract calls for incentives both for starts and relief appearances. The 28-year-old first joined the Cubs in August on a minor league deal. He pitched for the big league club in September and after a dominant month out of the pen became a key late-inning reliever in the playoffs. The signing gives the Cubs four potential swingmen, along with Warren, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood.

As February came to a close, the Cubs’ offseason seemed to have reached a successful conclusion, as they were down to tinkering with free agents on minor league deals. Then, in the course of a few hours, Epstein stunningly completed another multiple-bank shot. First, news broke that outfielder Chris Coghlan, whose presence on the Cubs’ roster was already somewhat redundant, had been traded to Oakland for Aaron Brooks. This trade seemed mostly about clearing Coghlan’s $4.8MM salary. Coghlan, a free agent after 2016, raked right-handed pitching with a .277/.354/.478 line from 2014-15. Brooks, meanwhile, will soon turn 26 and has yet to experience big league success. He’s got an interesting change-up and could develop into a useful pitcher, but it was a light return for Coghlan.

Shortly after the Coghlan trade, the Cubs announced that center fielder Dexter Fowler had re-signed on a one-year deal. Although media reports suggested Fowler had a multiyear agreement in place with the Orioles, Fowler, his agent, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette later said that was never the case. Instead, Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal. While it’s true the Cubs sacrificed another potential draft pick, Fowler basically fell into their laps. Heyward is now penciled in at his natural right field position, Fowler returns in center, and the Cubs have a pair of highly-regarded young players in Soler and Kyle Schwarber in left field.

Continued analysis after the break …

Questions Remaining

In Soler and Baez, the Cubs have a pair of big league ready, highly-regarded early-20s players without starting roles. This is generally a good problem to have. Still, each player would ideally be getting regular playing time, and the Cubs’ acquisitions at least imply uncertainty in the pair. So far, the Cubs have taken the safe route with Soler and Baez, holding onto them and hoping their value either increases or stays the same. Without knowing the trade offers that came in this winter, it’s difficult to assess that decision. Most likely, the depth will be necessary, as the Cubs can mitigate the damage of injuries to their starters better than most teams. Of course, Soler and Baez may still be traded anytime between now and August 1st.

By the playoffs, the Cubs had assembled a strong bullpen, which included resurgent veterans like Cahill and Richard. The club could have issues if those resurgences don’t carry over, as Warren was the only real offseason addition. Though the Cubs have Wood and Richard from the left side, it seems that left-handed relief was an area of focus for them given the minor additions of Rex Brothers (since released), C.J. Riefenhauser, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, and Manny Parra.

Did the Cubs do enough to improve their rotation? Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks remain in place, and on paper Lackey definitely makes the rotation better. The biggest concern is regression or injury for Arrieta, who tallied nearly 250 innings in 2015. The Cubs have a slew of swingmen to step in if someone gets hurt, but it’s still true that the front office chose to allocate most of their free agent budget to add to a strength, position players. Given the Cubs’ trade chips and this offseason’s unprecedented free agent starting pitching, it was surprising to see the Cubs only come away with Lackey.

The Cubs were unable to reach a long-term agreement with Arrieta, instead avoiding arbitration with a one-year, $10.7MM deal. Arrieta is due another potentially large raise for the 2017 season, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency. I think the fact that the Cubs did not add a $20MM+ starting pitcher leaves the door open for an Arrieta extension, even if agent Scott Boras strongly prefers to take his clients to the open market. In October, I suggested Arrieta’s salary expectations covering his free agent years would likely match that of Zack Greinke, and then Greinke signed an unprecedented six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. That would be on top of Arrieta’s 2017 salary. Arrieta just won the Cy Young award with a season for the ages. Can his price really get any higher if the Cubs wait another year, or even two? In general, do the Cubs want a Greinke-like contract on the books? Arrieta’s contract status will be an ongoing question mark for Epstein and company.

Speaking of Epstein, the Cubs’ chief architect is signed only through 2016. Based on public comments from Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts, a new contract seems inevitable. Comments Ricketts made to Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com indicate that a new deal for Epstein is likely to once again make him baseball’s highest-paid executive. With Andrew Friedman earning $7MM a year with the Dodgers, I wonder if Epstein’s new contract will push a $10MM salary.

Deal Of Note

I was surprised to see the Cubs aggressively pursuing Jason Heyward, because right field didn’t seem like a primary need for the club. Nonetheless, they signed the offseason’s best position player to an eight-year deal guaranteeing $184MM. The Cubs also stoked a longtime rivalry, as the Cardinals tried to retain Heyward. Crucially, Heyward can opt out of his deal with the Cubs after three years. If he doesn’t opt out after that 2018 season, and then picks up 550 plate appearances in 2019, he has another chance to opt out. As Matt Swartz explained in a January article for MLBTR, it’s not likely Heyward opts out after 2019 if he doesn’t after 2018. Swartz values Heyward’s opt-out clauses at about $25MM, so the Cubs were able to reduce the guarantee to Heyward by about 12% by taking on downside risk.

Including an opt-out clause was a prerequisite to signing Heyward, who was an unusually young free agent at 26 years old. Now that the Cubs have Heyward and this contract, they have to hope he does opt out after 2018, making this a three-year, $78MM deal. If Heyward’s 2018 season is good enough to compel him to opt out (to which Swartz assigns a 50% likelihood), then it likely means the Cubs got more than their money’s worth. If the momentum does begin to swing clearly toward Heyward opting out after 2018, the Cubs will be presented with another Arrieta-like situation. They’ll have already gotten surplus value and will have to decide whether to re-up with the player at market price.

Overview

This is the Cubs team fans expected Epstein to eventually build, when he was hired in the fall of 2011. The team is overflowing with controllable position player talent for the long-term, supplemented by big-market style free agent signings. Though they didn’t reach the World Series, the 2015 Cubs had the Cy Young winner, Rookie of the Year winner, and Manager of the Year. Based on FanGraphs’ projected standings, the Cubs are the preseason favorite, and no other team is close. On paper, the Cubs are a popular World Series pick.

The problem with such high expectations for any team is that “the field” still has much better odds of having the World Series winner. Mostly, preseason favorites that fall short are done in by injuries, and the Cubs are just as susceptible as any team. After four years, the Theo Epstein front office has stacked the odds nearly as far in the Cubs’ favor as possible, but it won’t mean anything until the franchise gets the championship monkey off its back.

So, how would you grade the Cubs’ winter moves? (Poll link for app users … )

How would you grade the Cubs' offseason?

A 77% (3,421)
B 18% (821)
C 2% (91)
F 2% (82)
D 1% (24)

Total votes: 4,439

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals

Out Of Options 2016

By Tim Dierkes | at March 16, 2016 7:46am CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources when possible, but may be incomplete for some teams. I’ll update the post as confirmed information comes in.

Angels

Daniel Nava, Johnny Giavotella, Todd Cunningham, Craig Gentry, Cory Rasmus, Deolis Guerra (Rule 5 also)

Astros

Mike Fiers

Athletics

Danny Valencia, Yonder Alonso, Felix Doubront, Stephen Vogt, Liam Hendriks

Blue Jays

Josh Thole, Josh Donaldson, Steve Delabar, Ezequiel Carrera, Junior Lake, Arnold Leon, A.J. Jimenez

Braves

Jose Ramirez

Brewers

Chris Carter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jeremy Jeffress, Tyler Thornburg, Jonathan Villar, Sean Nolin, Ariel Pena, Ramon Flores, Rymer Liriano

Cardinals

Tyler Lyons

Cubs

Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Neil Ramirez

Diamondbacks

Welington Castillo, Randall Delgado, Chris Herrmann

Dodgers

Louis Coleman, Chris Hatcher

Giants

George Kontos, Cory Gearrin, Ehire Adrianza, Hunter Strickland

Indians

Carlos Carrasco, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship, Dan Otero, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer

Mariners

Justin De Fratus, Leonys Martin, Evan Scribner, Steve Clevenger, Jesus Montero, Rob Brantly, Mike Montgomery

Marlins

Adeiny Hechavarria, Bryan Morris, Brad Hand

Mets

Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores

Nationals

Jose Lobaton, Tyler Moore, Clint Robinson

Orioles

Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Vance Worley, Brad Brach, Jimmy Paredes, Dylan Bundy

Padres

Tyson Ross, Christian Bethancourt, Drew Pomeranz, Nick Vincent, Brett Wallace

Phillies

Jeanmar Gomez, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer

Pirates

Juan Nicasio, Jeff Locke, Pedro Florimon, Arquimedes Caminero

Rangers

Justin Ruggiano, Chris Gimenez, Sam Freeman

Rays

Rene Rivera, Brandon Guyer, Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Archer, Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, Enny Romero

Red Sox

Tommy Layne, Steven Wright

Reds

Ivan De Jesus, Yorman Rodriguez, Blake Wood

Rockies

Jake McGee, Tyler Chatwood, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Rusin, Justin Miller, Cristhian Adames

Royals

Jarrod Dyson

Tigers

Andrew Romine, Jose Iglesias, Bryan Holaday

Twins

Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez, Tommy Milone, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin

White Sox

Jacob Turner, Dan Jennings, Jerry Sands, Zach Phillips

Yankees

Dustin Ackley, Austin Romine

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Out Of Options 2016

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By Jeff Todd | at March 14, 2016 6:04pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Giants failed to defend their World Series crown with an 84-win season in 2015, but added some significant pieces to a still-excellent core this winter.

Major League Signings

Johnny Cueto, SP: Six years, $130MM (opt-out after second year, seventh-year club option)
Jeff Samardzija, SP: Five years, $90MM
Denard Span, OF: Three years, $31MM (with mutual option)
Total spend: $251MM

Trades and Claims

Traded RP Cody Hall to Diamondbacks for cash considerations

Extensions

Brandon Crawford, SS: Six years, $75MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Kyle Blanks, Conor Gillaspie, Grant Green, Gorkys Hernandez, Mike Kickham, George Kottaras, Hak-Ju Lee, Vin Mazzaro, Miguel Olivo, Ramiro Pena, Ricky Romero, Albert Suarez

Notable Losses

Jeremy Affeldt (retired), Nori Aoki (declined option), Joaquin Arias, Marlon Byrd (declined option), Alejandro De Aza, Tim Hudson (retired), Mike Leake, Tim Lincecum, Yusmeiro Petit (non-tendered), Hector Sanchez (non-tendered), Marco Scutaro (retired), Ryan Vogelsong

Needs Addressed

An offseason can be approached in many ways. Organizations can hunt for value, explore creative trades, work the waiver wire, find options from within, and look to create competition with minor league signings.

But the most straightforward way for a contender to fill holes is through free agency, and the Giants did exactly that this winter. GM Bobby Evans and his front office entered the offseason with a clear need in the rotation — with Tim Hudson retiring, mid-season acquisition Mike Leake departing, and Tim Lincecum finally ending his fascinating tenure with the club (barring a late surprise) — along with an arguable need in the outfield. San Francisco took a direct route to addressing those areas, adding three high-priced players on the open market.

Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija finished their 2015 seasons with some uncertainty, and were among the most variable major free agents, but still commanded big dollars from San Francisco. The former was a typical ace, for the most part, with the Reds. But some questions about his health cropped up, and he wasn’t quite himself after being traded to the Royals, posting a 4.76 ERA in his final 13 regular season starts and then mixing gems and duds in the postseason. His contract looks to be something of a compromise. There’s a fair share of risk, but Cueto would be a bargain if he pitches like the front-of-the-rotation starter he’s long been, as the team only owes him $46MM over the two seasons before his opt-out applies.

Samardzija, meanwhile, never settled in with the White Sox, following up his breakout 2014 with a 4.96 ERA campaign. His strikeouts and groundballs fell off a cliff, to 6.9 K/9 and a 39.0% GB%, though he maintained his velocity. The 31-year-old has a solid history of health and innings, though, having racked up over 200 frames in each of the last three years. And he’s long been a favorite among scouts, who love his big frame and bulldog demeanor. San Francisco doesn’t need Samardzija to return to his career ceiling to justify the contract, though he’ll obviously be expected to provide at least a large volume of solid, mid-rotation innings over the next several campaigns.

If those two pitchers were risks of sorts, then there’s an argument to be made that the Giants took an even greater leap of faith with Denard Span, who’ll bump Angel Pagan into left field and relegate Gregor Blanco to his typically active fourth outfielder role. The depth was obviously welcome, but Span has endured recent core muscle and hip surgeries. If he can return to full health, the deal could well be a coup, as Span’s high-contact bat makes for a nice fit at the top of the lineup. He’ll also provide value on the bases and is generally well-regarded defensively, though he rated poorly when he was on the field last year.

Beyond that, it was a largely uneventful winter from an acquisition standpoint. Among the minor league free agents added, only Kyle Blanks looks to have much of a chance of breaking camp on the 25-man roster; if he can stay healthy — a big if — then he’d add to the outfield depth and provide a power right-handed bat off the bench. Otherwise, the Giants focused on bringing in a host of infielders to provide some options if a need arises, but it would probably rate as a disappointment if any are required to play much in the majors this season.

Questions Remaining

On paper, the Giants simply filled the needs they had entering the winter. Really, though, it was and is a fair bit more complicated. While Cueto and Samardzija will slot in behind ace Madison Bumgarner, both Jake Peavy and Matt Cain have a lot to prove. Peavy provided a 3.58 ERA last year, but he’s nearly 35 and only made 19 starts due to back issues. Meawhile, ERA estimators were less impressed with his output (3.87 FIP/4.47 xFIP/4.33 SIERA). There’s even more uncertainty with Cain, who hasn’t reached 100 innings in either of the last two years and owns a 4.37 ERA dating back to the start of 2013. Given those questions, as well as those facing Cueto and Samardzija, there was perhaps an argument to be made that the club should have preferred the younger and perhaps safer option of bringing back Mike Leake, who ultimately landed with the Cardinals.

There are options behind that group, to be sure. The organization is said to be high on some of its young arms, and just added a bevy of pitchers to the 40-man over the winter, including Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick, Ian Gardeck, Adalberto Mejia, Steven Okert, Jake Smith, and Chris Stratton. And it’s easy to forget that Chris Heston was a revelation early in 2015, even spinning a no-hitter, before he faded late. Several of those arms could be called upon if a rotation need arises, and the club will hope to see some strides made as it looks ahead to replacing Peavy when he returns to free agency after the season.

Ultimately, that bunch of arms also helps to explain why the Giants were inactive on the reliever front this winter. Josh Osich will step into shoes of retiree Jeremy Affeldt after a strong (albeit BABIP-aided) debut season, and he’ll pair with the reliable Javier Lopez to form a southpaw duo. Hunter Strickland could eventually supplant Santiago Casilla as the closer, and of course Sergio Romo will group with those two righties in the late innings. George Kontos is another fixture, though he outperformed his peripherals rather notably in 2015.

It’s worth looking more closely at the position player side of things as well. The Giants turned down a seemingly reasonable $5.5MM option over Nori Aoki, who missed time with a concussion last year, and also turned down a chance to retain Marlon Byrd for $8MM (after making sure his option didn’t vest down the stretch). There was certainly some cause to stick with Aoki for such a limited commitment, even if another player was added. Pagan’s health and performance remain to be seen, and the typical workhorse Hunter Pence only managed a third of a season while dealing with his own injury issues.

Ultimately, it seems, the Giants preferred to explore a bigger upgrade via free agency. There were conflicting reports as to whether top-tier options like Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes were ever in play. Reports were more clear that the club was one of many to push to sign Ben Zobrist, who is said to have preferred to play second base. The team also looked at Ian Desmond as an option to play in the outfield while providing infield depth. Going with Span ultimately makes sense, as he provides a table-setting offensive presence and is obviously capable of playing center, but he adds to the list of health situations to watch. It bears noting, too, that in addition to the players discussed above, the club has fairly well-regarded young options in Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson. Both will likely return to Triple-A, where they played well enough last year to earn some MLB time late in the season.

The idea of adding options on the dirt certainly seemed to have some appeal, at least as a secondary consideration, despite the fact that the Giants’ infield was perhaps the best overall unit in the game last year. Starting with the outstanding Buster Posey behind the dish (with intriguing young #2 Andrew Susac), San Francisco received nothing but excellence all the way around the horn in 2015. Brandon Crawford turned into one of the game’s best shortstops (more on him below) and Brandon Belt had a typically strong campaign (though he dealt with concussion issues and meniscus surgery), while relative newcomers Joe Panik and Matt Duffy both racked up 4+ WAR. In spite of that group’s inspiring effort and evident promise, Panik dealt with back issues late in the year — though he told me on the MLBTR Podcast that he doesn’t expect to be limited moving forward — and Duffy still only has one year of major league productivity on his ledger.

Indeed, after trying for Zobrist and Desmond, San Francisco reportedly dabbled in the market for pure infielders as well. Both Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe were said to be under consideration, though it never seemed as if the Giants were willing to make much of a commitment to add either veteran. Instead the club settled on some less established minor league free agents, with players like Conor Gillaspie, Grant Green, Ramiro Pena, and former top prospect Hak-Ju Lee brought in over the winter.

Deal Of Note

The Giants are among the more loyal teams in the game when it comes to locking up their own established players, and Crawford became the latest player to sign on for the long haul back in November. His six-year deal buys out four would-be free agent campaigns and will keep him in San Francisco through his age-34 season. (He also picks up full no-trade protection in the pact.)

Crawford is a classic Giants success story, as he has rewarded the organization’s faith with steadily increasing offensive output. Always a quality defender, Crawford not only has improved with the glove but has gone from a below-average hitter, to an average one, to a surprising power threat. While he still isn’t great in the on-base department, Crawford put up an ISO north of .200 last year while launching 21 long balls. The overall package added up to 4.7 fWAR and 5.6 rWAR in 2015.

Even if Crawford can’t quite maintain that level of production, he seems like a good bet to profile as a steady three to four-win performer going forward. He doesn’t have drastic platoon splits over his career, though much of his recent outburst came against right-handed pitching. And Crawford’s fielding prowess seems to set a nice floor. There’s still some risk, of course, but Crawford has been durable and even the $15MM salary promised over the four free agent seasons covered in the deal doesn’t set a terribly high bar for him to meet to make good on the contract.

While the additions of Cueto and Samardzija were more sexy, this contract best encapsulates the organization’s philosophy and helps to explain its rather remarkable recent run of success. Players such as Panik and Duffy could well follow Crawford — a fourth-round pick who never generated a ton of buzz as a prospect — as relatively unheralded draft-and-development success stories. And Crawford’s deal could be a precursor for a long-term pact with Belt, another mid-round draft pick who shares a service class with the shortstop. San Francisco has suggested continued interest in exploring an extension with him after agreeing to avoid arbitration this year for $6.2MM. (For those interested in further reading on the subject, Steve Adams took a stab at valuing a Belt extension in a recent MLBTR mailbag.)

Overview

Despite the heavy spending, the Giants will face a tough road to the postseason. The division-rival Dodgers are still loaded with talent, while the Diamondbacks hope to make a push as well. And the N.L. Wild Card competition could be fierce, as the top two or three clubs in the other divisions all look like strong contenders.

While it’s easy to see plenty of upside in the San Francisco roster, there’s still plenty of uncertainty for veteran skipper Bruce Bochy to manage. That includes the new rotation additions, the team’s oft-injured outfield mix, as well as the still relatively untested (but quite promising) group of infielders.

Looking down the line a bit, it’ll also be fascinating to see whether the organization can prepare to graduate some arms and outfielders to slot in alongside the players already in place at the major league level. There’s already well over $100MM on the books for 2017 and 2018, so another big outlay in next year’s market may not be in the offing if too many holes open up. Then again, it’s never wise to count out this particular organization when it comes to finding diamonds in the rough.

So, how would you grade the Giants’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

How would you grade the Giants' offseason?

B 46% (2,260)
A 37% (1,796)
C 12% (568)
F 3% (158)
D 3% (138)

Total votes: 4,920

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants

Rick Hahn Q&A

By brettballantini | at March 14, 2016 5:56pm CDT

After a disappointing 2014 season, White Sox GM Rick Hahn contemplated a complete team teardown. But once owner Jerry Reinsdorf opened his checkbook, Hahn “won” the offseason with a series of splashy moves — which ultimately added only three wins in the standings.

This past offseason, Hahn again underwent some of the same soul-searching over the direction of the White Sox, debating everything from a complete rebuild to chasing some of the winter’s nine-figure free agents. Determining that the status quo wouldn’t get the White Sox into October and a teardown would set the franchise back, Hahn got to work. This time, however, the GM did so with a sneaky trade chased by a series of under-market signings (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined in his recent review of their offseason).

But even with the AL Central fully up for grabs, it will take more than a few extra wins to get the White Sox to their first postseason since 2008 — and to that end, the convivial Hahn turns stern, ensuring that no Pale Hoser’s place in the lineup is guaranteed: “There are no scholarships.”

With Cactus League games underway, Hahn takes time out to talk exclusively with MLBTR about his second consecutive busy offseason.

—

After 2014, you “won” the offseason with some pretty pricey deals/trades, signing Adam LaRoche, David Robertson and Melky Cabrera and dealing for Jeff Samardzija. The holes to fill arguably were as big after 2015, but expenditures were much more modest. What changed?

We certainly were “in” on several of the higher profile free agents this offseason, but ultimately we were unable to come to terms on a deal with which both sides were comfortable. It can be frustrating — especially from a fan’s point of view. However, there are several factors that go into these decisions – some of which are not economic-based.

For example, whenever I see a guy choose to remain with an organization with whom he enjoyed success and with whom he is comfortable, I have to remind myself that we were the beneficiaries of such decision-making back in 2006, when Paul Konerko chose to re-sign with us over other suitors. Frankly, it’s more fun to be on that side of the choice.

Did the offseason unfold pretty much as expected — striking hard with prospects to grab a super need in third baseman Todd Frazier, then filling in at a buyer’s market with Jimmy Rollins, Mat Latos and Austin Jackson?

Given the need – arguably one that has existed for the organization going back to Joe Crede or, perhaps, even [manager] Robin [Ventura]’s playing days – the talent, and the impact he could have in our clubhouse, Todd was at the top of our target list. Converting on him was essential to executing our offseason plan.

Some markets moved more quickly — like the catchers’ market — than others, like outfielders, and we had to respond to the pace accordingly. A couple of times we tried to speed things up. But in reality, the goal had to be to get the right mix by Opening Day, not by some artificial deadline, such as the end of the winter meetings or [January’s fan convention] SoxFest.

In the case of Jimmy and Austin, at least, players chose the White Sox over as good or better playing opportunities and/or salary. Does it ever tire, getting guys who are psyched to be White Sox?

[Laughing] I do like the idea of players electing to join us over other opportunities. We do our best to learn as much as we can about a player’s makeup before acquiring him, and some of our guys have certainly backed up their words about wanting to contribute to winning in Chicago being the most important factor in their decision-making.

You have a super-plum prospect in Tim Anderson. What’s the best-case scenario for his arrival date?

Given that he was coming out of a smaller program and had only really been playing baseball full-time for about two years, our original development plan for Tim contemplated full-season stops at every level. Based on the original plan, that would mean Timmy would spend essentially the entire 2016 season at [AAA] Charlotte. That said, the good ones have a way of forcing the issue or speeding up the timeline, so we’re going to remain flexible.

Is there anything the White Sox are doing differently with Tim, in contrast with Gordon Beckham — likewise a first-rounder shortstop who sped his way through the Sox system — eight years ago?

With regards to Beckham, one of the larger issues for him was that he never failed prior to getting to Chicago.

Obviously, you don’t want a player to struggle at any point in their career, but there is something to be said for them learning how to dig themselves out of adversity. Those lessons are much easier to learn somewhere in the minors and away from the scrutiny of the bright lights of the majors. Since struggles are inevitable in the majors for every player, there is a fair amount of benefit for them having gone through it in the minors, which prepares them to be able to adapt and rebound once it happens in Chicago.

The toughest call of the offseason had to be cutting ties with catcher Tyler Flowers [who had strong pitch-framing metrics]. Cutting him even briefly raised the ire of irascible-mode Chris Sale. On paper, it seems for roughly the same dough, your catching has gotten older and, at least defensively, worse. For a relatively conservative and loyal organization, the move surprised. Is your new catching platoon’s upside that high?

We see a fair amount of upside in the combination of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro behind the plate. Obviously, this club struggled to score runs in 2015, and we weren’t comfortable just bringing back the same unit and hoping it would be better this time around.

From a defensive standpoint, both Alex and Dioner have received a great deal of praise from the pitchers who have thrown to them. While they may not post some of the framing numbers that we have seen in the past, considering the entirety of their offensive and defensive skills – which includes throwing out runners, pitch-blocking, and game-calling in addition to framing – we feel that it was overall a change that needed to be made.

Shortstop Alexei Ramirez seemed an easier call, at least in declining his $10 million option. How close did you come to bringing him back at lower AAV, or was a change of scenery the best for both sides?

As with the Flowers decision, this was another area that we felt it was time to try something different. Alexei was a stalwart for us for many years; however, we weren’t just going to bring back the same squad and expect things to be different.

No way around Avisail Garcia‘s struggles last season, and you’ve often reminded us he’s just 24 years old. That said, what do you need to see from him this season — stats be damned — to feel good about committing to him in the future?

Avi has a world of talent and as you noted, is still only 24 years old. This is an important year for him, and we’re looking for improvement in terms of his approach. He has the aptitude to execute the plan that [White Sox hitting coach] Todd Steverson has put in place for him, which fundamentally is about him doing more damage on his pitches and laying off those that aren’t likely to lead to good results. He has been working diligently on some mechanical adjustments that we think will make this approach easier for him to execute. Thus far, with the usual “it’s only spring” caveats [10 hits, two homers, 11 RBI in his first 23 Cactus League at-bats] – he has delivered.

You have come across as doubleplus positive about Tyler Saladino, dating back even to his injury stints in the minors, and he was prepared to shoulder the starting shortstop role before you signed Rollins. In the case of both Tyler, who perhaps had cause to place a chip on his shoulder about entering 2016 as a starter, and Avisail, who had no cause for chip, what do you say to them now that their playing time almost certainly will be being squeezed by Rollins and Jackson?

We’ve been clear both internally and publicly that playing time will be earned here, so there really is no limit on the amount of time that either of those players could play in 2016 if they are producing. Robin knows that the lineup card is entirely his, and he should play whomever he feels gives us the best chance to win on a given night regardless of contract status, seniority or pedigree. There are no scholarships.

The White Sox, to their credit, simply do not rebuild. In my memory there has never been a teardown. Presumably it goes against the competitive instincts of you, Ken Williams, and all the way up to Jerry Reinsdorf. Is it a particular point of pride, entering every season with a true shot at a title?

Certainly it our preference to compete for the next immediately-available championship. However, we do not intend to delude ourselves. Any time you have a disappointing season, you have to look at all of your options, and this offseason we certainly considered going the “full rebuild” route. In the end, we simply felt we were closer to winning a championship by adding to the core we had already on hand than taking it down to the brass tacks and trying to reassemble a new core in the future. If for some reason we fail to meet our expectations again this season, it will be on the table once again next offseason.

There seems to be a lot of ninnied handwringing about the so-called “window of opportunity,” a.k.a. without Yoenis Cespedes you’re wasting Chris Sale’s prime. While not ignoring that one day Sale might be soft-tossing like Mark Buehrle, if you’re going for it every year, is the “window of opportunity” a false premise?

I actually do believe in success cycles, or windows of opportunity. However, there is more than one way to put yourself in a position to take advantage of an opportunity to win.

When you sign a guy like Latos, there is always an element that claims adding “him” will be the ruin of the club. Obviously there is due diligence, I believe to the degree you won’t even get on the phone or sit down with someone who would “ruin” the club. Has it ever happened where you sat with someone and walked away saying, “no way, not if my job depended on it?”

There are certainly risks in terms of clubhouse mix or chemistry that we would not take. However, if we based those decisions strictly on reputation or hearsay, as opposed to trying to get to know the player and his motivations directly, we likely would have missed out on a number of players who played large roles in our success over the years. A.J. Pierzynski and Bobby Jenks come to mind, to name a few.

How important is it to see a guy like Adam Eaton excitedly tweet positive messages after you sign Jackson, who is likely to push Eaton to a corner outfield spot?

We certainly have made an effort over the years to target team guys who prioritize winning. The fact is that I would expect every guy on the club to say that same thing. When you see recent comments like those made by Eaton, or Rollins and Jackson about their decisions to sign with us, it reinforces that our scouts are doing a great job evaluating character as part of their reports.

Fans can tend to be irrationally possessive of draft picks, certainly in reference to losing one to sign a free agent. Is this a silly worry, in that there literally is no free agent you would ever consider talking to who’s not worth losing a pick over?

Fundamentally, we are willing to sacrifice draft picks in order to make what we believe are significant improvements to the current club. While that did not happen this past offseason, we were in talks throughout the offseason that could have led to such. Plus, we did last offseason with Robertson and Melky.

Is there a deal you most regret not making?

The twisted part of this job is that you probably spend more time lamenting the deals that did not go the way you had hoped versus relishing in the ones that worked out. When things go well, it’s easier for me to see the scout, coach or analyst who made the recommendation or the positive contribution to helping the transaction work out than it is for me to see my role. When it craters, I feel the responsibility for the poor decision gone awry.

This year shapes up to be a tight Central Division race. Team you most want to beat: Royals, Tigers, Twins, Indians — or Cubs?

It’s all about winning the division. While we certainly want to win every night and there is heightened fan and media attention surrounding the crosstown series, the fact is beating the clubs in our division gets us much closer to our goal than taking games from a NL club.

In this day and age, do the White Sox have anything near a “number” that ends up being assigned to a player? We fans have WAR now, in spite of whatever imperfections and controversies; do the White Sox have their own secret sauce that breaks things down similarly, beyond the 20-80 scale or eye test?

We do not look strictly at one all-encompassing number. We look at a bunch of different metrics that we trust and combine it with the subjective evaluation.

Best movie shot at [Hahn’s high school] New Trier: Home Alone, Ferris Buehler, Uncle Buck, or Sixteen Candles?

I’ve got some built-in biases here. First of all, I currently live in the hometown of Joel (Tom Cruise) from Risky Business. Second, while not filmed at New Trier, The Breakfast Club was loosely based upon New Trier’s detention system, and I, myself, served time in a breakfast club or two during my high school career — although I only incurred a weekday before-school penalty or two along the way and never the full-day, weekend sanction showed in the movie.

In the end, I have to go with Ferris Buehler given how much of the city is covered, but those other two are close behind for me.

So, then: How freaking cool is it to be a major league GM?

This is something I truly to hope to do a better job of appreciating this season. It’s a pretty fantastic opportunity – especially being able to do it in my hometown – but frankly I need to do a better job enjoying the victories along the way.

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