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Blue Jays Sign David Phelps

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Jan. 12, 2:07 PM: Per a team announcement, the signing is now official.

Jan. 10, 10:25 PM: The Blue Jays have agreed to a contract with righty David Phelps, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link). It’s said to be a one-year deal that comes with a club option.

Phelps will receive a $2.5MM guarantee, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (links to Twitter). The deal also dangles a variety of incentives along with a floating option value depending upon how many frames Phelps throws in the season to come.

The terms reflect the fact that Phelps, a client of Jet Sports Management, is coming off of a season lost to Tommy John surgery. The 2020 option price will start at just $1MM. It goes up to $3MM if he appears in 30 games and hits $5MM if he makes his 40th outing. If Phelps reaches fifty appearances the option will jump to $7MM; it can climb by another $1MM if he also finishes forty games, which obviously would not take place unless he earns and keeps the Jays’ closer job for much of the season.

In terms of incentives, Phelps can boost his 2019 pay quite a bit if he’s able to get on the hill early and often. He’ll get a quarter-million boost upon throwing his 25th, 30th, and 35th games, then take home successive $350K payouts if he can reach appearances 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. The option year also has available incentive pay.

All told, the contract generally reflects an optimistic view about Phelps’s outlook. The 32-year-old had been on a great run when he ran into arm troubles during the 2017 season. Unfortunately for him and the Mariners, the issues reached a breaking point last spring, when it was decided he’d require Tommy John surgery just before the start of the 2018 campaign.

Before things went south, Phelps had been on an excellent run of success. Something of a non-descript starter earlier in his career, Phelps caught fire in a relief role in 2016 and never really looked back. He ultimately threw 142 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball, with 11.1 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9, over the 2016 and 2017 campaigns.

Looking ahead, it seems fair to presume that Phelps will be looked upon to play a significant role in a generally inexperienced Blue Jays bullpen. He joins veteran hurlers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard as recent veteran additions who will head to Toronto in search of a rebound. Though Phelps has plenty of experience as a starter — including an intriguing but brief return to the rotation late in 2016 — it seems from his incentive structure that he will not be joining Shoemaker and Richard in the competition for a starting job.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Sign Jake Petricka

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Jan. 12, 2:03 PM: The club has made the signing official this afternoon.

Jan. 8, 8:52 PM: The Brewers have agreed to terms on a split, Major League contract with free-agent righty Jake Petricka, per The Athletic’s Robert Murray (Twitter links). He’ll land a spot on the Brewers’ 40-man roster as part of the deal, which is still pending a physical. Petricka is represented by Platinum Sports.

Jake Petricka | Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Petricka, 30, spent the 2018 season with the Blue Jays and logged 45 2/3 innings out of the Toronto bullpen, working to a 4.53 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a strong 51 percent ground-ball rate. The former White Sox setup man averaged better than 95 mph on his sinker and posted a career-best 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate in his lone year with Toronto.

Prior to his time with the Jays, Petricka appeared in parts of five seasons for the ChiSox, though his final two years in Chicago were marred by injury. He pitched to a 3.24 ERA / 3.56 FIP through his first three seasons on the South Side, averaging 6.1 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate of nearly 64 percent in that time. Petricka, though, required elbow surgery in 2016 and pitched just 33 2/3 innings from 2016-17 combined before last year’s return effort.

Because he only has four years, 157 days of Major League service time, Petricka will be controllable for both the 2019 season and the 2020 season. If he carves out a spot in the Brewers’ bullpen this season, he’ll be arbitration-eligible next winter before becoming a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason.

Petricka does have a minor league option remaining, and by virtue of the split deal he signed, he’ll earn at different rates for time spent in the Majors and the minors. Once his deal is complete, the Brewers will have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings

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On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.

On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?

The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius’ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots.  Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.

Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him?  Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.

LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.

Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.

Did the Lowrie and LeMahieu signings make sense for the Mets and Yanks?
Yes, they were smart moves 32.90% (4,104 votes)
No, they didn't 25.04% (3,124 votes)
Lowrie did, LeMahieu didn't 24.49% (3,055 votes)
Lemahieu did, Lowrie didn't 17.57% (2,192 votes)
Total Votes: 12,475

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

Read more

Manny Pina’s Contract Details

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Catcher Manny Pina signed for $1.6MM in 2019, his first season of arbitration eligibility, but the Milwaukee Brewers hold a team option for 2020 worth $1.85MM, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

The team option for 2020 also includes a $150K buyout, pushing Pina’s guaranteed dollar amount to $1.75MM. Incentives could push the value of the deal higher if Pina wins a Gold Glove ($25K), Silver Slugger ($50K), LCS MVP ($25K), World Series MVP ($50K), National League MVP ($100K), or if he earns a trip to the All-Star game ($50K).

The Brewers now have three catchers signed to guaranteed contracts for 2019: Yasmani Grandal ($18.25MM), Erik Kratz ($1.2MM) and Pina. Grandal figures to see most of the playing time this upcoming season, but as an unrestricted free agent, he’s far from a lock to stay in Milwaukee long-term. Kratz, 39 in June, somewhat surprisingly took over the starting catcher position throughout the Brewers’ playoff run last season, though the journeyman hit only .236/.280/.355 across 219 plate appearances during the regular season. It was the first time Kratz ever exceeded 200 at bats in a season, and the first time eclipsing 100 at-bats since 2014.

Pina, then, seems the most likely of the three to stay with the Brewers beyond 2019, especially now that Milwaukee has secured him at a reasonable price point for 2020. Playing in a little over 60% of Milwaukee’s games over the last two seasons, the 31-year-old Pina slashed a solid .266/.317/.410 across 696 plate appearances. Generally-speaking, he is the least accomplished defensive catcher of the trio, though he received solid marks in blocking and throwing out would-be base stealers. It remains to be seen how exactly manager Craig Counsell plans to divvy up the backup duties behind Grandal.

Astros File Arbitration Figures For Carlos Correa, Chris Devenski

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The Houston Astros submitted their arbitration bids yesterday after signing fellow arb-eligibles Lance McCullers Jr., Will Harris and Brad Peacock to one-year deals. Houston failed to reach agreements with shortstop Carlos Correa, starter Gerrit Cole and swingman Chris Devenski. All three, at least for the time being, will head towards arbitration hearings to determine their 2019 salaries.

Correa is coming off a bit of a down year, while injuries have kept him to no more than 110 games in each of the last two seasons. He filed for a $5MM salary for 2019, while the Astros countered at $4.25MM. MLBTR projected a $4.625MM contract for Correa in this, his first year of arbitration. Both sides are surely hoping for a healthy bounceback campaign from Correa, a core piece of their championship winning club of 2017 who struggled to the tune of .239/.323/.405 last season. Of course, most clubs would be pretty thrilled to get a 101 wRC+ from a 23-year-old shortstop.

Devenski, meanwhile, filed for $1.65MM, with Houston countering at $1.4MM – the same number MLBTR projected for the righty. Devenski has primarily come out of the pen for Houston, pitching to a 2.74 ERA over his three major-league seasons. Last year was the worst campaign of Devenski’s three in the majors, though he was still serviceable in 47 1/3 innings, which included one start (4.18 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.01 xFIP). Like Correa, Devenski has two further seasons of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency after 2021.

As reported yesterday, Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM. The rather large difference of $2.075MM is understandable given this will be Cole’s last time through arbitration before hitting free agency. He had a stellar 2018 in his first year with the Astros, 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 12.4 K/9, a rather ridiculous number across 200 1/3 innings. No doubt it was a tremendous season, good for 5.3 rWAR, a far cry better than the 2.3 rWAR he accrued per season in Pittsburgh, which definitely complicates the valuation process for all parties.

There is, of course, still time for Houston to forego arbitration with Correa/Cole/Devenski, though the common “file and trial” practice means teams typically stop negotiating one-year deals at this juncture. It is not uncommon for parties to negotiate long-term deals during this period.

Arbitration figures for Correa and Devenski was first posted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Cole’s figures were reported yesterday by Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). 

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Market Notes: Smith/Watson, Reds, White Sox, AGon

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Let’s catch up on a few market notes from around the game after a busy day on the arbitration front …

  • The Angels are evidently a team to watch on Giants southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the teams “have been in constant contact this winter” regarding both pitchers (subscription link). It’s not surprising to see the Halos chasing lefties, as their current staff is quite thin in that area. Whether or not the club will offer up enough to entice the Giants remains to be seen. The San Francisco org is surely willing to deal either or both of these veteran relievers, each of whom is coming off of a strong season with an appealing contract situation, but there figures to be ample interest from other teams as well. With many of the best free agent relievers already off the board, now may be the time for new Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to market his southpaws in earnest.
  • The Reds are still looking to add another starter, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. He ticks through some possibilities, though it’s not clear that any particular pitcher is especially likely at this point. Among the potential targets, the Reds are still pursuing Yankees starter Sonny Gray, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). While the New York club made clear at the outset of the winter that Gray was on the block, recent indications are that there’s some consideration of hanging on to him. If nothing else, the Yanks are still trying to get value back. Heyman says that GM Brian Cashman is asking for more than one pitching prospect in return. While it’s doubtful he expects to land a premium arm, the veteran exec is said to be seeking “multiple … upper level guys with a chance.”
  • Likewise, the White Sox are still interested in filling out their rotation, GM Rick Hahn told reporters including Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link). While the veteran exec emphasized that the organization still sees Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey as possibilities, he indicated that depth remains a consideration. Needless to say, neither of those pitchers has established himself as a reliable MLB starter to this point, so it’s unsurprising to hear that the South Siders are still flipping through some external targets.
  • Veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is readying for a showcase in the coming days, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports on Twitter. He’s said to be in “excellent shape,” though teams will surely remain a bit skeptical after two consecutive unproductive campaigns. The 36-year-old Gonzalez was long one of the game’s most respected hitters, of course, but it’s tough to imagine him securing a MLB roster spot on the open market at this stage. Still, there should be some teams with bench bat needs that would be glad to give Gonzalez a shot to show what he’s got left in camp.

Phillies Sign Andrew Romine, Gift Ngoepe

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The Phillies have inked infielders Andrew Romine and Gift Ngoepe, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both are joining the organization on minor-league deals.

Romine, now 33, has appeared in every one of the past nine MLB seasons, though only once has he surpassed three hundred plate appearances in a given campaign. Through 1,323 total trips to the dish at the game’s highest level, he’s a .235/.291/.301 hitter.

Clearly, teams are more intrigued by Romine’s glovework than his bat. The same holds for Ngoepe, who is the first African-born player to play in the big leagues. Soon to turn 29, Ngoepe has yet to show that he can hit enough to command more than spot duty in the majors. In 902 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s hitting .212/.297/.344.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Anthony Rendon

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with star third baseman Anthony Rendon, the club announced. It’ll be a $18.8MM payday for Rendon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

Rendon had been projected to earn $17.6MM in his final season of arb eligibility. Instead, he’ll top that mark by a decent bit, landing a healthy $6.5MM raise over his 2018 salary.

Of course, this may only be a prelude to a much larger contract. There have been indications all winter long that the sides are engaged in extension talks. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported (subscription link) that Rendon is looking for a deal on the order of the $163.5MM pact the Astros agreed to with Jose Altuve last year.

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