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MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

Rays Place Shane McClanahan On 15-Day IL

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The Rays have placed left-handed ace Shane McClanahan on the 15-day injured list with mid-back tightness, per a club announcement. In a corresponding move, the club has recalled left-hander Jalen Beeks. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the move comes after McClanahan reported tightness following a second consecutive shortened start.

McClanahan, 26, sports a sterling 2.53 ERA through 17 starts this season even after the aforementioned two shortened outings during which he allowed a combined six runs over 6 2/3 innings of work. He’s been key to the Rays’ success so far this season, helping lift the club to an MLB-best 57-28 record even as a 3.85 FIP and sky-high 88% strand rate indicate regression could be on the horizon for the young lefty.

While any missed time is certainly a blow to Tampa given McClanahan’s dominant performance in the first half this season, Topkin notes that the lefty ace could miss just one start thanks to the coming All Star break so long as his current injury requires only a minimal stay on the shelf. McClanahan himself seemed confident the issue was relative minor in conversation with reporters Friday, framing the impending trip to the IL as a decision geared toward preparing him for the second half.

“We’ve got a lot of ballgames left to play and an IL stint in early July, missing one start, is not the end of the world,” McClanahan told reporters, including Topkin. “With a lot of meaningful games, hopefully in October, I want to make sure we correct it now.”

Replacing McClanahan on the active roster is Beeks, who struggled for the club earlier this season. In 25 games (including seven starts as an opener), Beeks posted a rough 5.87 ERA, 30% below league average by measure of ERA+. While a 3.57 xERA and a 4.37 FIP indicate Beeks may have pitched a bit better than those results indicate, the 29-year-old hurler is hardly a replacement for McClanahan nonetheless. The Rays figure to lean on a four-man rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, and Yonny Chirinos in the run-up to the midsummer classic later this month.

With the trade deadline just a month away, McClanahan joining Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen on the shelf in Tampa highlights the club’s need for pitching. It’s an issue that GM Peter Bendix recently addressed during a conversation with the media that saw him indicate the club’s front office would be doing “everything [they] can” to bolster the roster in the coming weeks as they attempt to capture the first World Series title in franchise history.

AL East Notes: Duvall, McClanahan, Givens

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Speculation has begun to swirl around Red Sox outfielder Adam Duvall as a potential trade chip for the club this summer. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes that rival executives think that Boston is play Duvall virtually every day despite the success of Jarren Duran in center field earlier this season in hopes that the 34-year-old slugger will catch fire and become a tradable asset ahead of the deadline on August 1. Meanwhile, MassLive’s Sean McAdam echoes the sentiment that Chaim Bloom’s front office could look to move Duvall, noting that starting pitching, left-handed relief, and middle infield help are among the weaknesses the Red Sox could look to patch up in return for Duvall’s services.

Duvall got off to one of the hottest starts to open the season across the league, slashing an incredible .455/.514/1.030 in eight games for the Red Sox prior to being sidelined with a fractured left wrist. He returned to action earlier this month, but has struggled in 13 games since returning from the IL with a slash line of just .146/.255/.268 in that time. Of course, both Duvall’s performance before and after the injury are incredibly small sample sizes, and the slugger has less than 100 plate appearances total on the season, meaning there’s still plenty of time for his numbers to stabilize one way or another as Boston weighs its options regarding their veteran outfielder.

More from around the AL East…

  • Rays fans can breathe a sigh of relief regarding ace Shane McClanahan today, as Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the young lefty woke up “in a good spot” Friday morning after exiting Thursday’s start with mid-back tightness. Still, Ackert notes that the club is exercising caution with its prized left-hander, and considering utilizing Monday’s off-day to push his next start back until next weekend against the Mariners in Seattle. Ackert adds that McClanahan was not sent for imaging and has continued his usual routine between starts. That McClanahan seems to be healthy is great news for the Rays, as the 26-year-old lefty has put himself squarely in the midst of the AL Cy Young award discussion with an MLB-leading 2.23 ERA in 93 innings of work this season.
  • Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens was scratched from his planned rehab appearance at Triple-A tomorrow, as noted by Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun. Instead, Givens is set to return to Baltimore for an evaluation. Further details about the evaluation are limited, though it certainly seems to be an ominous sign for the right-hander, who’s been on the shelf with shoulder inflammation since the beginning of the month and had the start to his 2023 campaign delayed by knee inflammation. While Givens has been limited to just four innings of work by those injuries, the Orioles bullpen has nonetheless excelled thanks to the emergence of Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano as perhaps the best relief duo in baseball this season. [UPDATE: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that Givens has some soreness in his throwing shoulder but there is a relatively “low level” of concern about a serious setback.]

Rays Notes: McClanahan, Raley, Franco

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Rays starter Shane McClanahan departed today’s outing in the fourth inning after a visit from the trainer. The club later announced he’d been dealing with mid-back tightness.

It’s unclear whether the Rays anticipate McClanahan missing time. Postgame, he conceded he was “frustrated” to have to leave the game early but expressed hope it wouldn’t be a serious issue (video provided by Bally Sports Sun). Manager Kevin Cash told reporters the southpaw had experienced some minor back discomfort before his previous start as well (relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).

McClanahan is the only Tampa Bay starter to have taken all 16 turns through the rotation. Last season’s sixth-place Cy Young finisher has continued to excel. He owns a 2.23 ERA across 93 innings. His 26.7% strikeout rate is down a bit relative to last year’s 30.3% clip, but it’s still well above league average. The Rays are already without Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Josh Fleming and had to navigate the first couple months sans Tyler Glasnow. McClanahan, Glasnow, rookie Taj Bradley and offseason pickup Zach Eflin make for an excellent top four, but the Springs and Rasmussen injuries have put some pressure on the depth arms.

Corner outfielder Luke Raley also finished today’s game with some health concern. He was hit on the right hand by a José Cuas pitch in the first inning. While Raley played the remainder of the contest, Topkin tweets that his hand remained sore postgame. Initial x-rays came back negative but he’ll head for further imaging tonight. Raley has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s best hitters this year, mashing at a .276/.354/.582 clip over 193 plate appearances.

Whether he’ll require a stint on the injured list is to be determined. There’d seem a decent chance he’ll at least be out of tomorrow night’s lineup. If that’s the case, he’d be joined in sitting out the contest by Wander Franco. Tampa Bay penciled in Taylor Walls at shortstop tonight, and Cash announced pregame that Franco would be on the bench for Friday’s contest as well.

It’s not an injury concern in his case. It’s instead a disciplinary decision. Cash told reporters the organization was benching Franco for at least two games after taking issue with some of his clubhouse behavior. As Topkin writes, it isn’t believed to be related to one specific incident but rather a culmination of a few events throughout the season. Topkin notes that Franco has been involved in some verbal spats with teammates over the course of the year and has had some instances of slamming equipment in the dugout after making outs.

To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest the Rays’ overall relationship with Franco has been affected. Cash was quick to call the 22-year-old star “a really good kid, really good person” while conceding that the infielder “is learning and dealing with the challenges of being a major league player and some of the frustrations that come with it.” Both Cash and president of baseball operations Erik Neander expressed support for Franco overall but indicated they felt it appropriate to sit him down for a few days to reinforce the need to be a good teammate.

Franco is arguably the face of the franchise and already one of the sport’s brightest young stars. He’s off to a .287/.349/.455 start to the season and has elite defensive marks. Recipient of the largest extension in franchise history, he’s under contract through the 2032 campaign and remains as important to the organization as any player on the roster.

AL Notes: Story, Brantley, Rays

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Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, today that Trevor Story is doing well in his rehab, and providing an update about his progress. Story has begun regularly fielding groundballs in the infield dating back to camp this spring, and will begin throwing in two weeks. He’ll advance to hitting next month, sixteen weeks after his elbow surgery. That’s great news for Boston fans, as it means Story is still on track to make his season debut sometime around the middle of the season. As things stand, the Red Sox are relying on Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo and Yu Chang for middle infield duties, with offseason acquisition Adalberto Mondesi joining Story on the IL.

The return of Story would potentially relieve Hernandez of his duties as an everyday shortstop, allowing him to bounce between second base and center field as he did during his past two seasons in Boston. 2023 is the second year of Story’s six-year, $140MM deal with the Red Sox. In his first year in Boston, Story slashed just .238/.303/.434 (100 wRC+) in 94 games, though he did post an elite defensive season by Outs Above Average, which gave him a +10 mark for his work at second base. While that sort of production didn’t quite match the expectations associated with the contract he signed, a steady presence like that would be a huge boon to the Red Sox in the second half, given the uncertainty of their middle infield situation.

More from around the American League…

  • Michael Brantley has departed Houston for the Astros spring complex in West Palm Beach, as noted by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Brantley traveled with the team for the club’s World Series ring ceremony on Opening Day, but now returns to Florida to continue his rehab from last season’s shoulder surgery. McTaggart notes the Astros hope to have him back in the “next couple of weeks”, which tracks with GM Dana Brown’s previous statement that Brantley was likely to miss at least three weeks of games. It seems as though Brantley might be back at the earlier end of that estimate, which would surely lift an Astros lineup that will be without Jose Altuve for around two months to open the season.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Rays renewed both left-hander Shane McClanahan’s and right-hander Drew Rasmussen’s contract for the 2023 season, indicating neither hurler agreed to their 2023 salary. While pre-arbitration players like McClanahan and Rasmussen have no negotiating power over their salaries, they can refuse to agree to their 2023 salary, a symbolic gesture that indicates the player does not agree with the club’s proposed salary. McClanahan will earn $737,000 in 2023 while Rasmussen will earn $73,700. Both players figure to be arbitration eligible this offseason, with McClanahan likely poised to qualify as a Super Two player, while Rasmussen appears set to secure a third full year of service time this season.

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Rays Activate Shane McClanahan

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Sept. 15: McClanahan has formally been activated from the injured list. Fellow lefty Josh Fleming was optioned to Triple-A Durham to open a roster spot.

Sept. 14: The Rays are going to reinstate left-hander Shane McClanahan from the injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Blue Jays, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

McClanahan, 25, had his Cy Young-caliber season interrupted a couple of weeks ago. He was set to start against the Marlins on August 30 but felt something during his pre-game warmup and never actually made it into the game. He was placed on the 15-day injured list the next day with his injury listed as a shoulder impingement. At that time, manager Kevin Cash expressed confidence that an extended absence wouldn’t be necessary, with that assessment proving to be true as McClanahan is returning after a minimum stint.

McClanahan debuted last year with an excellent 3.43 ERA over 123 1/3 innings, though took his game to another level here in 2022, prior to the injury. He’s currently sporting an ERA of 2.20 through 147 1/3 innings this year, along with incredible strikeout, walk and groundball rates of 32.5%, 5.4% and 52.3%, respectively. He and Verlander seemed to be the frontrunners in the AL Cy Young race, though both of them went on the IL around the same time. Verlander seems poised to return this week as well, allowing that competition to continue, though the injuries have allowed others to gain ground.

If McClanahan is able to avoid any lingering effects of the injury and pick up where he left off, it will be a huge boost for the Rays. They face long odds of repeating as AL East champions since they are currently 6.5 games behind the Yankees with just three weeks left on the schedule. However, they are in the midst of a three-team melee for the Wild Card, with the Jays currently on top but only half a game ahead of the Rays and Mariners. The nearest non-playoff team, the Orioles, are five games back, making it likely that the three teams currently in playoff position will hold on. However, the final positioning will also matter, since the top seed will have home field advantage for all three games (if necessary) in the first round of the playoffs.

McClanahan will jump into the rotation next to Corey Kluber, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, with Ryan Yarbrough likely also picking up some bulk work behind an opener. McClanahan would likely be the club’s preferred choice to take the ball in game one of a postseason series, though they will first have to worry about clinching a spot.

Elsewhere on the roster, the news on Ryan Thompson isn’t as good. Topkin relays that the right-hander is done for the season after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right elbow. Thompson has already been on the 15-day IL since late August but will likely be transferred to the 60-day IL once the club needs to open a roster spot. He finishes the year with a 3.80 ERA over 42 2/3 innings, along with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate.

The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

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Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

—

A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

Rays Place Shane McClanahan, Brandon Lowe On IL

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4:05pm: Topkin relays word from Cash, who says that McClanahan’s MRI confirmed the impingement diagnosis, describing it as a “best case scenario.” McClanahan will get a cortisone shot and could return after the 15-day minimum absence.

1:00pm: The Rays announced that they have placed starter Shane McClanahan on the 15-day injured due to a left shoulder impingement and infielder Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 28, with a right triceps contusion. Infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan and right-hander Calvin Faucher have been recalled in corresponding moves.

McClanahan’s move may be disappointing but it’s hardly surprising. He was scheduled to start yesterday but felt his injury pop-up while throwing his pregame bullpen and never actually threw a pitch in the game. He and manager Kevin Cash both expressed cautious optimism after the game, feeling that an extended absence wouldn’t be necessary. That might still prove to be true, but it appears the team feels he needs at least two weeks before he can contribute again. Whether he will need longer than that still remains to be seen.

Even if he does miss just the minimum amount of time, it will still be a significant loss for Tampa. The southpaw has thrown 147 1/3 innings this year with a 2.20 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate. That elite production has put him squarely in the American League Cy Young debate. Though the Rays are known for stockpiling quality depth pieces, any team would suffer from losing that caliber of performance.

As for Lowe, it’s been a frustrating stop-and-start season for him, with this just the latest setback. He first landed on the IL in mid-May due to low back discomfort. He ended up missing about two months due to that ailment, returning in mid-July. He was then hit by a pitch on Friday and was diagnosed with an elbow contusion at the time. He has sat out the club’s past few games, but it seems that the injury is lingering enough that they’ll have him sit out for at least another week. Despite those injuries, he’s still been able to produce for Tampa, hitting .234/.319/.405 in 61 games. That amounts to a wRC+ of 114, a drop from last year’s 137 but still 14% above league average.

With both Lowe and McClanahan out of action, the Rays will have to get by with a weakened rotation and lineup for a while. They are currently in possession of the top Wild Card spot in the American League, though the Mariners are just half a game behind and the Blue Jays separated from the Rays by just a single game. There’s a bit more breathing room until the best non-playoff teams, with the Orioles and Twins three games back. Nevertheless, it figures to be a tight race over the remainder of the schedule, with just five weeks left to go, with the Rays surely hoping to secure not just a playoff spot but also earn home field advantage in the first round by keeping the top Wild Card slot. Hopefully, a little bit of time off for Lowe and McClanahan will allow them to return and contribute down the stretch.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times announced the move before the official announcement (Twitter links).

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