MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

If all else fails, teams looking for pop can usually shoehorn a slugger into a first base and/or DH role, and it’s easier to carry such players with the knowledge that rosters will expand in fairly short order. Last year, we saw Mike Napoli and Brandon Moss move at the deadline. But is the demand there this time around?

Truth be told, there aren’t a lot of situations that scream for improvement. John Jaso hasn’t been stellar for the Pirates, though Sean Rodriguez has made for a useful companion and the team has top prospect Josh Bell on hand (if it’s willing to trust him in the field). It’s hard to imagine the Nationals giving up on Ryan Zimmerman — and we haven’t heard any chatter to suggest it — but he is hurt and hasn’t been effective, while lefty bench bat Clint Robinson isn’t matching last year’s productivity. Justin Bour has shown well for the Marlins, but he’s not being trusted to face southpaws and could probably stand to be paired with a better platoon mate than the struggling Chris Johnson (though the return of Dee Gordon will effectively deepen the overall infield mix). The Astros haven’t really landed on a first baseman, but the team may have already made its corner infield move with the signing of Yulieski Gurriel. With the loss of Prince Fielder, and the team’s seeming lack of interest in giving Joey Gallo a shot, perhaps the Rangers shouldn’t be counted out.

If those or any other organizations go hunting for new bats, here are some of the names they might consider:

Rentals

Logan Morrison & Steve Pearce (Rays), Adam Lind & Dae-ho Lee (Mariners), Mark Reynolds (Rockies), Justin Morneau (White Sox), Michael Morse (Free Agent)

• We considered Pearce in the discussion of second basemen, and he’ll probably also appear as a corner outfield option, but perhaps he’s best considered as a somewhat unique, floating, semi-regular slugger. He’s a health risk, but he’s also very affordable and is flat-out raking this year (.324/.393/.553).
• Morrison and Lind haven’t done a whole heck of a lot at the plate in 2016 — at last look, each carried an 88 OPS+ — but they’re rental pieces that could hold some appeal as lefty bench bats. Much the same holds for Reynolds, albeit from the right side. His .277/.345/.438 batting line is obviously propped up by the advantages of altitude, but he could still garner consideration.
• Lee has been hitting, and doing equal damage against pitchers of both kinds, so it’ll be interesting to see if another organization takes a liking to the 34-year-old slugger — who is owed just $1MM this year. It’s not clear from public reports whether he’ll be controllable after the season, but odds are his minor league contract stipulates that he must be put back into the free agent pool.
• Morneau is a mystery — he has taken just 38 professional plate appearances since his offseason elbow surgery — and he’s 35 years old. There’s not much chance that he’ll do anything in the next ten days to prompt a deal, let alone that the White Sox will look to trade him in that time. But if he starts putting up numbers and Chicago falls back in August, the veteran first bagger could conceivably be moved in August.
• It still seems a bit odd that Morse hasn’t signed since his early-season release by the Bucs, but he is 34 years old and may not be interested in taking a minor league deal. It’s tough to see a contender calling with a MLB offer at this stage.

Future Control

Chris Carter (Brewers), Danny Valencia & Yonder Alonso (Athletics), Byung-ho Park & Kennys Vargas (Twins), Brett Wallace (Padres)

• Teams looking for pop could well zero in on Carter, who can also be kept around for two more years via arbitration. He’s producing right at his career rates, which means a borderline OBP and loads of long balls.
• Valencia has barely cracked 100 innings at first, but he’s beginning to see a bit of action there and clubs could consider him in that role (at least on a part-time basis) as a way to get the bat in the lineup. Both he and his teammate, Alonso, have another year of arb eligibility remaining. And they are headed in opposite directions, with Valencia slumping through July while Alonso has posted .800+ OPS figures in each of the last two months.
• The Twins don’t seem particularly likely to discuss either of their two young DH candidates, and other organizations don’t seem particularly likely to come calling. San Diego would surely be willing to listen on Wallace, but he hasn’t followed up on last year’s short-sample success and his two years of future control don’t carry any significant value.

Big Contracts

Billy Butler (Athletics), Joey Votto (Reds), Mark Teixeira & Alex Rodriguez (Yankees), Albert Pujols (Angels), Joe Mauer (Twins), Ryan Howard (Phillies)

• Of the players listed here, Butler might be the likeliest to be traded. He has enjoyed a rebound of sorts over the last two months or so, but overall he has been even less productive this year than last. As a pure DH who is owed $10MM this year and next, it’s far from clear that he’ll be targeted.
• The remaining names are all largely implausible trade pieces for somewhat varied, but somewhat overlapping reasons. All have produced at times since signing their monster contracts, but only Votto (who has emerged from his early-season malaise) is putting up big numbers at present — and he not only has gobs of cash still left on his deal, but possesses a full no-trade clause that he doesn’t seem inclined to waive.

Dream On

Freddie Freeman (Braves), Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks), Wil Myers (Padres), Jose Abreu (White Sox)

• I feel compelled to mention these three players, if only to check all the boxes, but there are really no plausible scenarios where they end up moving. That’s due in some part to the lack of demand, but also their teams’ stances. Braves GM John Coppolella prefers Freeman to his own right arm; Goldschmidt is one of the most valuable assets in the game and plays for a club that hopes to contend again soon; and Myers constitutes the signature addition of Pads GM A.J. Preller’s tenure. There’s probably at least some minute chance of Myers being dealt, but with possible extension talks on the horizon it’s a poor bet.
• That brings us to Abreu, who is in something of his own category. We’ve heard that the White Sox are prepared to listen on most of its roster, and it doesn’t seem that Abreu is being put behind glass with a select few others. He has turned things around after a rough start, and though he no longer looks to be quite the elite asset that he once was, Abreu would still draw significant interest given his affordable control. But I’m still not convinced that Chicago is going to part with the slugger for an equivalent-value package, so I’m shoe-horning him in this category.

While the pitching market is a clear seller’s market this summer, the market for second basemen appears to be another story. The number of potentially available second-base options on losing clubs looks to outweigh the number of clubs looking for a genuine upgrade at second base by a fair margin. The Royals and Blue Jays, for instance, have received poor offensive output from second base as a whole but have strong defenders at those positions right now that are still providing some value. The Pirates haven’t seen much offense at second either but have their fair share of infield depth, and the Cardinals solved some of their second base woes by shifting Matt Carpenter to the position (though Jhonny Peralta‘s injury could potentially create a need).

The second base market could be relatively quiet this season barring a notable last-minute injury, but here are some of the possibly available names…

Short-Term Veterans

Steve Pearce (Rays), Eduardo Nunez (Twins)

• Pearce isn’t a second baseman in the traditional sense of the word, as he’s been more of a fill-in there over the past couple of seasons in Baltimore and Tampa Bay. The Rays are clear sellers, however, and Pearce has mashed at a .322/.393/.540 clip this season. He’s played just 240 innings at second, so asking him to man the spot regularly down the stretch could be a reach, but his bat could offset his lack of experience there. Plus, he’s earning a bargain $4.8MM on a one-year deal.
• Nunez is reportedly among the most frequently asked-about Twins, which is perhaps no surprise given the numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons. While many still think of him as a utility option, Nunez boasts a .790 OPS, 16 homers and 31 stolen bases across his past 155 games in a Twins uniform. He’s earning a mere $1.475MM this season and is eligible for arbitration one final time this winter before hitting free agency following the 2017 season. Nunez could fill in for a team looking for a regular second baseman or bounce around between second base, shortstop, third base and left field. He doesn’t excel defensively at any of those spots, but the versatility is nice.

Controllable Starting Options

Jed Lowrie/Marcus Semien (Athletics), Jean Segura/Chris Owings (D-backs), Yangervis Solarte (Padres), Logan Forsythe (Rays), Brian Dozier (Twins), DJ LeMahieu (Rockies), Jace Peterson (Braves), Jonathan Villar/Scooter Gennett (Brewers)

• Lowrie could technically go in the above category as well, but the cheap 2018 club option ($6MM) on his contract prompted me to put him in the “controllable” bucket as opposed to the “short-term” slot. (Plus, I just felt like being than Jeff Todd, who slotted Lowrie into the short-term section of the shortstop trade market.) Lowrie has cooled off as of late, but he’s still hitting .281 with a .333 OBP. His power has been nonexistent for most of the season (.334 slugging, .053 ISO), but he’s affordable, versatile, and owns a .330 OBP over his past five big league seasons. Like Jeff noted when looking at shortstops, I doubt that Semien is actually a likely candidate to be moved, but the A’s are typically willing to listen on everyone but a select few players, so he’s worth at least a mention.
• It’s not clear that the D-backs would entertain the notion of moving either of their controllable second base options. Owings is currently on the disabled list and has been for quite some time, which could limit his value. As for Segura, he’s keeping the average just north of .300 thanks in part to a pair of massive BABIP spikes in April and June, though it should be noted that he’s also showing a bit more pop and plate discipline than in years past. The D-backs have only shown a willingness to trade relievers thus far, so moving Segura (controlled through 2018 via arbitration) or Owings (2019) would come as a surprise.
• San Diego has already moved James Shields, Fernando Rodney and Drew Pomeranz, and a versatile, controllable asset like Solarte figures to generate interest as well. He has significant experience at both second and third base and despite his status as a minor league signee with the Yankees prior to his big league debut in 2014, he’s done nothing but hit since arriving in the Majors. Solarte has batted .270/.334/.419 as a big leaguer, and his best work has come this season, when he’s slashed .295/.368/.521 in 212 PAs. He’s controllable through 2019, so perhaps the Padres have a greater temptation to hold, but they’ve already traded one cheap young asset that was controlled through 2018 in Pomeranz.
• Forsythe has very closely approximated his 2015 breakout in 2016, and he’s combined to bat a hefty .279/.352/.446 with 25 homers in his past 891 plate appearances. He’s fairly pedestrian against right-handed pitching but mashes lefties and plays solid to above-average defense at second (depending on your metric of choice). He’s earning just $1MM this season (the rest of his salary coming via signing bonus), with $5.75MM owed to him in 2017 plus an $8.5MM club option for 2018 that comes with a $1MM buyout.
• Dozier’s inclusion may or may not be realistic, but now-former Twins GM Terry Ryan said before his dismissal that he felt the need to be open for business and listen on any player. His interim successor, Rob Antony, could very well be reluctant to listen on Dozier, but given the Twins’ standing, teams will almost certainly check in. The 29-year-old is on the cusp of his third straight 20-homer, 10+ steal season. His .247/.332/.454 batting line in 2016 is indicative of his low-average, plus pop skill set, but he’s sliced his strikeout rate and upped his walk rate this season. Dozier is earning $3MM this year and is owed $6MM in 2017 and $9MM in 2018.
• The Rockies have, more often than not, shown a strong resistance to selling off big league assets in July. However, GM Jeff Bridich moved Troy Tulowitzki last summer and was willing to part with a controllable outfielder this winter in Corey Dickerson. There’s no contractual need to move LeMahieu, who is arbitration eligible and controllable through 2018. He’s really upped his offensive game over the past two seasons, though, which should make him appealing to other clubs.
• There’s no indication that the Braves are looking to move Peterson, but they’ll listen on virtually anyone and project to have Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as their long-term double-play tandem as it stands. Peterson could be a fine utility player, but if a club believes his .313/.395/.473 line since being recalled from a demotion to Triple-A is in any way sustainable, the Braves could net a nice piece for a player with four years of control beyond 2016.
• Villar has had a breakout season with Milwaukee and is cheap and affordable for another four years following the 2016 season. Orlando Arcia will push him off shortstop soon, but Villar can play third base once that happens. A better question would be if Milwaukee would entertain the thought of moving Scooter Gennett, who is arbitration-eligible this winter and is limited to a platoon role. There’s no urgency to deal Gennett either, but his impending arbitration and lesser club control make him a more plausible option than Villar in my mind.

Reserves and Utility Options

Gregorio Petit/Cliff Pennington/Johnny Giavotella (Angels), Alexi Amarista/Adam Rosales (Padres), Daniel Descalso (Rockies), Andres Blanco/Cesar Hernandez/Freddy Galvis (Phillies), Nick Franklin/Tim Beckham (Rays)

Any of the players listed here could add to a club’s bench mix, but most look like they’d be miscast as starters. There aren’t really any prohibitive salaries in the bunch, and any of the listed names is capable of playing all over the infield, with the possible exception of Giavotella. I don’t think anyone here would fetch much in return, but there’s something to be said for a club deepening its bench in advance of a playoff push.

Big Contracts

Brandon Phillips : Phillips is in somewhat of his own category, as he’s owed $5.26MM through season’s end and another $14MM next year. The Reds would probably love to move him — they tried this offseason but he invoked his 10-and-5 rights to veto the deal — but a 35-year-old hitting .260/.297/.372 with $19.5MM remaining on his contract isn’t going to generate tons of demand. And, as noted before, he hasn’t shown a willingness to approve a trade anyhow.

The demand side of the shortstop market just isn’t clear. That’s not to suggest that every contender is receiving outstanding production at the position — the Mariners, Royals, and Marlins, in particular, have not. While Seattle might be moved to take action, particularly with Ketel Marte suffering an ankle injury last night, it’s hard to see Kansas City prioritizing that position when it has Alcides Escobar on hand and other needs to address. As for Miami, we’ve heard some suggestion that the club would be willing to move on from Adeiny Hechavarria, though the scenario posited doesn’t sound particularly realistic.

The Royals could always make an addition that would help at both short and second, and it’s that kind of approach that might sway other teams toward some names on this list. Tim Anderson has been useful overall, and Tyler Saladino is still around, but the White Sox could look for depth. The Giants have been looking at infield help and could add a shortstop type that could also see action elsewhere, and there are a handful of others that might fit that profile.

Ultimately, there’s not likely to be much movement at short. But teams that do have interest will be looking at this group of names:

Short-Term Veterans

Zack Cozart (Reds) — Cozart has carried a 108 OPS+ in each of the last two seasons, and while that’s still not a huge sample given his injury-shortened 2015, it represents a full season of above-average offensive production. That’s more than enough bat for a player who is one of the game’s very best defenders. He’s owed less than $3MM this year and comes with another season of control.

Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — It’s a somewhat similar story on the offensive side for Nunez, who has been quite useful at the plate over his last 544 plate appearances dating to the start of 2015 (.304/.337/.464 with 16 home runs and 30 steals). He isn’t the glove magician that Cozart is, but he’s cheaper, offers loads of versatility, and also comes with that extra year.

Jed Lowrie (Athletics) — The 32-year-old hasn’t spent much time at short of late, but was a regular there as recently as 2014. He also isn’t doing much at the plate, with a .282/.332/.345 batting line on the year, and is owed $7.5MM this year with an equal amount to go for 2017 (including the buyout on an option for another season). Lowrie could nevertheless represent a utility option who is capable of playing up the middle.

Alexei Ramirez (Padres), Erick Aybar (Braves), Jimmy Rollins (Free Agent) — All of these players have been solid regulars in the not-so-distant past, but none have shown much in 2016. Still, experience counts down the stretch, and contenders in need of a veteran presence could look here for a bench piece.

Controllable Assets

Jonathan Villar (Brewers), Marcus Semien (Athletics), Brad Miller (Rays), Jean Segura, Chris Owings & Nick Ahmed (Diamondbacks), Jurickson Profar & Elvis Andrus (Rangers), Andrelton Simmons (Angels), Eduardo Escobar (Twins), Freddy Galvis (Phillies)

• While all have their warts as players, Villar, Semien, and Miller are all interesting assets. As noted above, there’s not much demand, so it’s hard to see another club doing what it would take to pry these players loose from their respective organizations, who will value them for their low cost and future control. It’s not clear that the Diamondbacks will look to cash in any of their controllable, shortstop-capable infielders, but they’d have some interesting trade pieces if they did.
• Profar holds an odd place on this summer’s trade market. He’s playing an important role for a contending team, albeit one that doesn’t strictly need him. It’s a bit strange to place him on this particular list, since Texas likely won’t be swapping him for prospects, but he is performing well right now at the major league level and it isn’t inconceivable that he somehow ends up with a contending club in some kind of creative scenario. There’s an alternative scenario where the Rangers try to move a somewhat resurgent Andrus while shifting Profar to short, but the veteran’s career-best 97 OPS+ still doesn’t make his monster second extension appear to be a very good value — particularly since metrics no longer rate him as an elite baserunner and defender.
• I’m not including Simmons here because I think he’ll be marketed. Halos GM Billy Eppler made him the signature move of his first offseason, and it’s difficult to see that happening. But stranger things have occurred, and a contender seeking a top-flight defender with lengthy control rights wouldn’t have any other realistic options.
• Escobar is fading at the plate, and the odds are quite high that it’ll make more sense for Minnesota to hold on to him and hope he can turn it back on in the future. Galvis is one of the Phillies’ few trade pieces, though in his case, too, it isn’t an opportune time to act. Philadelphia still needs a bridge to J.P. Crawford and an eventual back-up, and Galvis offers cheap defensive versatility.

Reserves and Utility Options

Andres Blanco (Phillies), Alexi Amarista (Padres), Nick Franklin & Tim Beckham (Rays), Gregorio Petit (Angels), Pete Kozma (Yankees), Chase d’Arnaud & Reid Brignac (Braves), Ivan De Jesus (Reds), Daniel Descalso & Cristhian Adames (Rockies)

• Blanco is in the midst of an unlikely blossoming in his early thirties, putting up a .282/.341/.477 batting line in his last 461 plate appearances. He might be the likeliest from this group to be dealt. Otherwise, clubs looking at budget-friendly utility pieces are likely to choose among some of the other grizzled middle infielders listed here, Amarista and Descalso perhaps the most obvious candidates.