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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds’ offseason was highlighted by two solid trades of starting pitchers who were about to approach free agency, but the team still could face tough times ahead as its core continues to age.

Major League Signings

  • Burke Badenhop, RP: One year, $2.5MM ($1MM plus $1.5MM buyout on $2.5MM 2016 mutual option)
  • Total spend: $2.5MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Reds’ most pressing problem was the impending departure of much of their rotation next winter, and they addressed that issue by trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, both of whom could join Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake on the free agent market after the season. With over $82MM already on the books for 2016 (much of that coming from long-running contracts for Joey Votto and Homer Bailey), the Reds were in a tough spot from which the Latos and Simon deals helped remove them. They also saved about $14MM for 2015, given the two pitchers’ salaries in their last years of arbitration.

The Latos deal, in particular, will help, in that the Reds got a young starting pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani who has six full years of control left and should be able to help right away, perhaps developing into a middle-of-the-rotation type. Along with Bailey, Tony Cingrani and top prospect Robert Stephenson, DeSclafani will help the Reds adjust to life without Latos and Simon, and, perhaps eventually, without Cueto and Leake as well. The Reds also got Chad Wallach, a young catcher with a good eye at the plate who will likely start the season at High-A.

Jonathon Crawford, the pitcher the Reds received in the Simon trade, is further from the Majors, and is a bit of a project — his statistics in Class A last year were nothing to write home about, and most observers haven’t thought much of his changeup. His development will depend upon how well he’s able to use his other pitches to complement his plus fastball. The Reds also added Eugenio Suarez, a capable defensive shortstop who hit reasonably well in the minors and held his own in the big leagues as a 22-year-old last season. If Suarez can continue to improve, he’ll likely eventually replace Zack Cozart, whose subpar hitting mostly canceled out his plus defense last year.

Overall, that’s a good haul for Latos and Simon, particularly given that DeSclafani and Suarez might be able to help right away. Latos and Simon both had just one year of control left, and neither of them are aces — both of them had better ERAs than peripherals last year, and Simon, in particular, is a good bet to take a step backward next season. Latos also missed time in 2014 due to knee and elbow injuries. Whether the Reds will be able to keep Cueto and Leake beyond 2015 is an open question, but those two were probably the best pair of starters from among the four facing free agency, and the Reds got good value for the lesser pair.

The Reds also shipped outfielder Chris Heisey to the Dodgers for 25-year-old righty Matt Magill. Magill walked 6.3 batters per nine innings at Triple-A last season and doesn’t throw particularly hard, so he’s unlikely to contribute much. Heisey doesn’t hit well, although he’s a strong enough defender to be an asset, and his departure leaves the Reds’ rather thin outfield vulnerable if anyone is injured.

To bolster their bullpen, the Reds added righty Burke Badenhop on a one-year deal. Badenhop is a soft-tosser whose strikeout rate has shrunk over the past three seasons and whose xFIP was a run and a half behind his ERA last year, but at $2.5MM, the Reds didn’t overpay for a reliever who can limit walks and get bunches of ground balls.

The Reds also signed two core players, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, to extensions. The Frazier contract was fairly routine — it’s a two-year pact that buys out only Frazier’s first two years of arbitration eligibility, tracking fairly closely to what his salaries would have been through the arbitration process in those two seasons. After it ends, the Reds will be able to take Frazier through arbitration once more. Frazier’s deal came in lieu of an extension to buy out free-agent seasons, but since Frazier is already 29, such a deal might not have been necessary anyway.

USATSI_8109526_154513410_lowresThe Mesoraco deal is a more significant commitment. Like Frazier, Mesoraco was arbitration eligible for the first time. But Mesoraco’s contract buys out all three of his arbitration seasons, plus one year of free agency. Mesoraco and the Reds had already exchanged arbitration figures, and the midpoint of those two figures of $3.025MM would have given the two sides a rough guide to how much Mesoraco might have made through the arbitration process in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The deal comes with risk for the Reds — Mesoraco has only had one excellent season, and by extending him, the team is gambling that his 2014 breakout is real, or mostly real. Mesoraco is also an injury risk, having missed time with hamstring problems in 2014. The Reds also didn’t get any club options. If Mesoraco keeps hitting, though, the deal will be a bargain — if we assume, somewhat conservatively, that Mesoraco would have made about $15MM in his arbitration seasons, the deal buys out Mesoraco’s age-30 season at $13MM, a good price for what might be a strong late-prime season for a quality catcher. And if Mesoraco can approximate his .273/.359/.534 2014 outburst in 2015 and 2016, he would have been able to get far more than $15MM total in his three arbitration seasons.

Questions Remaining

As a team in transition, the Reds have no shortage of questions. Many of their highest paid players (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips among them) either had injury or performance issues or both in 2014. It will be difficult for the Reds to compete in 2015 if those players don’t stay healthy this time, since the team doesn’t have much depth, particularly now that Heisey is gone.

Key bench player Skip Schumaker is coming off a poor .235/.287/.308 season upon which he doesn’t figure to improve much. Backup catcher Brayan Pena was little better, at .253/.291/.353. The fact that Schumaker and Pena were already under contract for 2015 likely meant that the Reds weren’t going to spend much of the offseason hunting for position players who weren’t starters, but even a better crop of minor-league free agents would have helped. The team’s position player depth in the high minors is nothing to write home about, and its top hitting prospects are far from the Majors. Fangraphs’ depth chart currently lists nine Reds position players — their eight starters, plus Suarez — who project to be more than a tenth of a win above replacement in 2015. That’s a shame, because given the Reds’ veteran-heavy lineup, good backup plans could really have come in handy.

When Reds GM Walt Jocketty worked for the Cardinals, he frequently built benches full of light-hitting players like Aaron Miles, Roger Cedeno, Kerry Robinson and Miguel Cairo. But at least in St. Louis, Jocketty could lean hard on stars like Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds year-in and year-out. Jocketty did the same with the 2014 Reds, depending on players like Votto and Phillips, and it didn’t work. As of this writing, Votto, who missed 100 games last season with a knee injury, still hasn’t appeared in Spring Training action, although he’s expected to do so Saturday. If the Reds are to be successful in 2015, they need him.

The Latos and Simon deals will help the Reds beyond this season, and probably aren’t even as detrimental for 2015 as they might initially appear, but they do leave the team’s rotation thinner than it had been before. Tony Cingrani will occupy one of the last two spots, and he’s excellent as a back-end option, although the Reds will hope he’s past the shoulder troubles that ended his 2014 season. (He’s currently pitching normally in Spring Training.) DeSclafani is the front-runner for the fifth spot. The Reds also aren’t sure whether Bailey will be ready for the beginning of the season after having forearm surgery last September, which could mean Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis gets starts in his absence.

Deal of Note

The Reds spent much of their offseason dealing veterans and reshaping their roster beyond 2015, but they went the opposite direction when they traded pitcher Ben Lively to the Phillies for outfielder Marlon Byrd. With the departure of Ryan Ludwick (who did little in two years in Cincinnati to prove he’s a starting outfielder going forward anyway), the Reds had a gaping hole in left field, and Byrd might be able to fill it capably, even at age 37. After a career year in 2013, his rate stats went backward in 2014, but he still hit 25 homers, a total he could match this season in a homer-happy ballpark like Cincinnati’s. If he stays healthy, the Reds will likely be happy to be on the hook for his $8MM 2016 team option, which will vest if he manages 550 plate appearances this season.

The quality of the trade, though, depends on Lively. The Reds know him better than anyone, and perhaps thought that his blend of reasonable stuff and deception wouldn’t be enough to succeed in the long term. Lively had an excellent first full pro season, though, and could be ready for the Majors by the end of this season or early next. He would have been a good arm for the Reds to have in their system as they prepare for life without many of their top starting pitchers. Perhaps the value of having a competitive 2015 team was worth the cost of losing Lively, but acquiring a relatively cheap free-agent outfielder, like Colby Rasmus, Nori Aoki or Michael Morse, might have made more sense.

Overview

Step back a bit, and the Reds still look like they could be very good. Cincinnati has a power-hitting catcher, a first baseman with a career .417 OBP, a star veteran second baseman, a third baseman who’s coming off a career year, and a center fielder (Billy Hamilton) who gives opposing catchers nightmares. They have one of the National League’s best starting pitchers in Cueto, and a terrifying closer (Aroldis Chapman) who joins Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland among the best relievers of this decade so far. If everyone is healthy and performs at his career norms, that’s an excellent core.

A closer inspection, though, isn’t as kind. The Reds’ core is old enough and expensive enough that the team can’t necessarily fit many good complementary players into its budget. (That might not improve much in the coming years, either, with the $213MM remaining on Votto’s contract potentially causing the Reds huge headaches.) With a few obvious exceptions like Hamilton and Cingrani, the Reds’ farm system hasn’t developed the young players necessary to replace core pieces as they age. The team can’t necessarily count on Votto being healthy, and Phillips isn’t nearly as good as he once was. And Cueto is only under team control for one more year.

Perhaps a more aggressive route for the Reds this offseason would have been to trade Cueto and rebuild — one would think Cueto would have been able to land the Reds at least a couple top prospects, given his 2014 performance and ultra-cheap 2015 option ($10MM). The Phillies are having trouble getting the package they want for Cole Hamels, however, and James Shields lasted late into the winter on the free agent market. The Athletics’ return for Jeff Samardzija appears to have been relatively meager. Perhaps the Reds are gambling that they can get better value for Cueto at the deadline, or perhaps they’ll end up extending him (although it’s debatable whether a team in the Reds’ position should commit to what would presumably be a nine-figure contract that goes well into Cueto’s thirties).

In any case, the Reds appear to be in a holding pattern. This offseason’s Latos and Simon trades were steps toward a brighter future, but they were small ones, and the Byrd deal went in the opposite direction. There’s no rule stating that a team can only contend or only rebuild, and in fact many teams this offseason have pursued both goals at once. The Reds, though, don’t really seem to be doing either one. It wouldn’t be a miracle if they made the playoffs this year, but it would be a surprise, and as their core ages and departs, it’s unclear what’s on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 Draft Pool Changes By Team

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Last week, Baseball America’s John Manuel reported an 8.77 percent increase among draft pool allotments from 2014. That change was highly significant, as the draft pools only rose by a combined 1.7 percent from 2013 to 2014. Thanks to the data provided by BA, we’re able to look and see which clubs will see the largest increase and largest decline from their 2014 pools.

Draft Pool Changes
2015 draft pool gains and losses

As you can see, the D-Backs, who selected 16th overall in 2014 but will have the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, saw the largest increase, adding more than $6MM to their allotment by virtue of their improved draft status. Meanwhile, the Mets, who forfeited their top pick — one of the highest unprotected picks in this year’s draft — in order to sign Michael Cuddyer to a two-year contract, won’t select until No. 53 overall and, as such, have the lowest pool among teams in this year’s draft.

The Astros possess the largest pool of all, which shouldn’t be surprising, considering the fact that they have the No. 2 and No. 5 overall selections based on their failure to sign 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken and their poor record this past season. Houston also acquired a Competitive Balance Round A pick (No. 37 overall) from the Marlins in last summer’s Jarred Cosart trade, which explains in large part why the Marlins’ own draft pool is the most shrunken in all of baseball. Miami dropped from the No. 2 overall slot to the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft as well, and they also had a supplemental third-round pick in 2014 for failing to sign 2013 third-rounder Ben DeLuzio, which they of course do not have in 2015. As such, their $7.4MM free-fall isn’t exactly surprising.

In addition to the previously mentioned Mets, other clubs that signed players who rejected qualifying offers all saw decreases in their bonus pools as well. The White Sox (David Robertson and Melky Cabrera) saw a decrease of $4.16MM, the Blue Jays (Russell Martin) dropped by $4MM, the Mariners (Nelson Cruz) fell by $2.58MM, the Nationals (Max Scherzer) lost $1.17MM and the Padres saw a $921K decrease after signing James Shields.

Toronto’s $4MM drop may seem steep since they did receive a comp pick in exchange for Cabrera signing with the White Sox, but the Blue Jays do not pick until 29th overall this season after selecting ninth and 11th in 2014. (Toronto had an extra first-round pick after not signing 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford.)

Another team whose change is perhaps surprising at first is the Red Sox, who forfeited a pair of picks to sign both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez but saw just a $150K decrease. However, it must also be noted that Boston leaped from 26th overall coming off a World Series to a protected pick — No. 7 overall — after their surprising fall to last place in the AL East. Likewise, the Twins signed Ervin Santana despite a qualifying offer and saw just a $137K drop. Minnesota’s top pick, too, was protected, so the Twins instead forfeited their second-round pick to land Santana. They also picked up a Competitive Balance Round B pick in this year’s Competitive Balance Lottery after not having a Comp Balance pick in 2014.

The only other players to reject qualifying offers last year were Victor Martinez and Francisco Liriano, both of whom re-signed with their previous teams anyhow. As for the rest of the teams to gain picks from qualifying offers, the Rockies ($5.6MM), Orioles ($5.5MM), Yankees ($4.7MM), Braves ($3.8MM), Tigers ($2.2MM), Dodgers ($2MM) and Giants ($1.6MM) each saw increases. The Royals, despite gaining a pick for the loss of Shields, still saw a $1.4MM dip, though that was due to dropping from 17th to 21st in the draft order and also missing out on a Comp Balance pick in this year’s lottery.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Front office controversy generated more headlines in Baltimore than any of the Orioles’ winter moves, as the team had one of the quieter offseasons of any contending team.  The O’s will rely on some lower-profile transactions and a return to form from injured stars as they look to defend their AL East crown.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Several of the Orioles’ most notable offseason moves were completed before October was even finished.  Exercising 2015 options for Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day were virtual no-brainers given how well both men pitched last year, and the O’s kept J.J. Hardy off the free agent market by signing him to a three-year extension before their postseason run was even over.

The outfield and DH spots became major needs for the O’s once Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis signed elsewhere.  The team explored signing or trading for several candidates to fill those spots, ranging from big-name everyday options as Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Marlon Byrd, Michael Morse and Colby Rasmus, to players better suited for a platoon role, i.e. Jonny Gomes or Chris Denorfia.MLB: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

In the end, the Orioles brought back a familiar face in Delmon Young and acquired an intriguing piece in ex-Pirates outfielder Travis Snider.  Young hit well (.302/.337/.442 over 255 plate appearances) in a part-time role for the O’s last season and he can play either corner outfield spot, though defensive metrics suggest he’s a better fit for a DH spot.  Snider was rated as one of baseball’s top-10 prospects in his days as a Blue Jays minor leaguer, though he never gained a solid foothold in the majors until he posted a .776 OPS over 359 PA for the Pirates last season.  Snider is still just 27 and comes with two years of team control, so a breakout isn’t out of the question, and at worst the O’s should have a solid lefty bat.

Overall, manager Buck Showalter has lots of opportunity to mix and match his lineup when it comes to his corner outfield and DH positions.  He has Snider, David Lough and Alejandro De Aza as left-handed bats and Young and Steve Pearce hitting from the right side.  Pearce is the best bet for regular playing time given his huge 2014 numbers, though the O’s have given themselves some depth should Pearce come back down to earth.

Though Wesley Wright is much more of a lefty specialist than a dominant bullpen southpaw like Andrew Miller, Wright’s signing will help fill the left-handed hole left by Miller in the Orioles’ bullpen.  There was speculation that Wright’s signing could have also been made to account for a possible trade of Brian Matusz, though since no move materialized, Baltimore will go into the year with significant left-handed relief depth in Wright, Matusz, T.J. McFarland and closer Zach Britton.  Before landing Wright, the O’s also looked into acquiring Antonio Bastardo from the Phillies before he was traded to the Pirates.

While Matt Wieters is expected to be recovered from the Tommy John surgery that cost him all but 26 games of the 2014 season, Baltimore added to its catching depth beyond Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph by signing J.P. Arencibia and Ryan Lavarnway to minor league deals.  (Michael Ohlman was also in the mix before being dealt to the Cardinals.)  Wieters is an important name to watch; not only will his health be a key factor in the Orioles’ success, but he’s also entering the final year of his contract.  A big year will make Wieters one of the top names in the 2015-16 free agent class, so his future in Baltimore will be one of the team’s major ongoing storylines.

MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected that the Orioles would spend $56.9MM to cover the contracts for their whopping 11-player arbitration class.  The total ended up being $57.515MM, which included winning a hearing against Alejandro De Aza.

Questions Remaining

The general feeling going into the offseason was that of the Orioles’ three biggest free agents, Miller was sure to leave, Cruz was 50-50 and Markakis was leaning towards re-signing.  As it turned out, all three players departed, leaving the O’s with a particular need for lineup reinforcements.

As ESPN’s Jayson Stark recently pointed out, those reinforcements could already be on the roster if Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis are all healthy and productive.  Relying on those three, however, is no sure thing.  Wieters was already in need of a rebound after a sub-par 2013 season, Machado has now undergone two knee surgeries in as many years and it’s hard to know what to expect from Davis, who went from a 53-homer year in 2013 to being barely above replacement level (0.5 fWAR) in a 2014 season plagued by injuries and a suspension for using Adderall.

It remains to be seen if the platooning rotation at LF/RF/DH can work, as a lot rides on whether Pearce, Young and Snider can continue to hit as well as they did in 2014 rather than struggle as they have in previous seasons.  An everyday option like Upton or Byrd would’ve provided more stability, though the Orioles were leery of parting with any significant minor leaguers.  In my opinion, this is where you can second-guess Baltimore’s decision to deal Eduardo Rodriguez for Miller at the trade deadline.  While Miller undoubtedly helped the O’s win the East, a top-60 prospect was a stiff price to pay for two-plus months of a relief pitcher, and Rodriguez could’ve perhaps been better served as trade bait for a bigger roster piece this offseason.

It seemed as if the Orioles were constantly on the verge of a major move this winter, as in addition to being linked to those notable outfielders and Bastardo, there were also rumors of a Chen-for-Howie Kendrick trade with the Angels.  Chen and Bud Norris drew some trade interest, though the Orioles decided to hang onto their starting pitching depth; a wise move in my view given how Ubaldo Jimenez struggled last year.

The biggest development of the Orioles’ offseason (and one that could have ramifications for seasons to come) was the Blue Jays’ pursuit of Dan Duquette to be their new team president and CEO.  After roughly six weeks of speculation and negotiations between the two clubs, talks finally ended with the Jays walking away due to Baltimore’s demand for multiple top prospects as compensation for Duquette’s services.

The relationship between Duquette and the Orioles was thought to be as solid as could be, given the team’s two postseason appearances in Duquette’s three seasons as the executive VP of baseball operations and the fact that Duquette had signed an extension that keeps him with the O’s through the 2018 campaign.  After this winter, however, questions have to be asked about Duquette’s long-term future in Baltimore, especially given how owner Peter Angelos was reportedly very upset about the situation.  For now, it’s a situation to keep an eye on.

Deal Of Note

Since being named to the 2013 All-Star team, Everth Cabrera’s career has taken a turn for the worse both on and off the field.  Cabrera served a 50-game suspension for PED use, posted only a .572 OPS over 391 PA last season and is facing charges for resisting arrest stemming from a suspected DUI last September.

Given all of these recent troubles, it’s no surprise that the Padres non-tendered Cabrera last December.  That said, if Cabrera can put his troubles behind him, then he could be yet another unheralded Duquette signing that pays big dividends for the Orioles.  Cabrera is controllable through the 2016 season and he still has a minor league option remaining, making his one-year, $2.4MM contract even less of a risk for the team.  He’s seen time all around the diamond during Spring Training camp, so the O’s could employ him as a switch-hitting supersub, or they could focus on him as a backup or even a platoon mate for Jonathan Schoop at second base.

Overview

While some fans and pundits think the Orioles’ quiet offseason will lead to a step back in the AL East, it’s worth noting that Duquette’s three previous offseasons running the Orioles were also not particularly newsworthy on paper.  It was only in hindsight that some of those under-the-radar moves stood out, ranging from claiming O’Day off waivers or getting good contributions from Jason Hammel or Nate McLouth, to the admittedly more notable steal of Cruz’s 40-homer season on only a one-year, $8MM contract.

In those past offseasons, however, Duquette’s strategy was to tinker around an already-solid core of players.  This is the first time Orioles have had to deal with some major losses to that core, as Cruz immediately became a key part of the lineup and Markakis had been a staple for years.  That said, the club still has Adam Jones, Hardy, the returning trio of injured stars, an underrated bullpen led by Britton and a solid starting rotation that could get a boost if Kevin Gausman takes a step forward or if Jimenez gets back on track.

While winning the division by 12 games again may be a stretch, it isn’t hard to see the Orioles in playoff contention again.  The pressure is on, however — with a whopping 12 players set to hit free agency next winter, this may be this roster’s last chance at a pennant before some inevitable reshuffling for 2016.

Photo courtesy of Joy R. Absalon/USA Today Sports Images

2014-15 Free Agent Market: Overall Spending Declines, AAV Rises

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Last year, I compiled a whole lot of data on free agent spending to assess overall spending trends over the 2007-08 to 2013-14 time period. That post was the culmination of a lot of research, and includes plenty of observations about the broader period in question which I will not repeat here.

At the time, the 2013-14 spending season was not quite wrapped up. It was apparent that it would blow the prior years out of the water in most respects, and indeed that proved to be the case. After performing a complete update, the final tab is a shade over $2.043B in overall outlay.

So, how does the current (2014-15) market stack up? Though we may see a few more MLB deals, it seems a reasonable time to assess. I broke out spending by team yesterday, but that only shows us strategic choices across a single market. Now, we’ll look at the market as a whole against prior years.

The first thing you’ll notice is that the total spend has declined for the first time since the 2009-10 period. But as a glance further down the table reveals, that is almost certainly the result of the number of players available (among other factors) than it is some pull-back in spending.

2014-15 FA spending tableAs the graph shows more visually, overall spending rate increases have continued, while the total outlay this season falls in line with a general upward curve.

2014-15 FA spending graph

Here are the annual increases and decreases; as you can see, last year’s market pushed a ton of total money over the prior season, but AAV actually grew more year-over-year this time around.

2014-15 FA spending annual change

We’ll take a closer look at different classes of players (as I did with regard to the broader time period) in a separate post. But for now, take a look at the overall spending numbers isolated for multi-year contracts only. The total commitment per player and years per player both rose for those free agents who were marketable enough to secure pacts of two or more years in duration.

2014-15 FA spending multiyear table

2014-15 Free Agent Spending By Team

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This year’s free agent market is all but over, with only a few players still available who could be candidates for major league deals. Let’s take a look at the overall spending on the year by team to see how it breaks down, using the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker (which I filtered to remove minor league deals, extensions, options, and foreign contracts).

We did the same thing last year, you may recall, and the results are rather different. For one thing, no team came anywhere near the Yankees’ spending (just shy of $500MM). For another, the total spend actually declined by about 13%. As recent historical results show, this year’s overall outlay is still a significant increase over other recent seasons, and differences in the player market may represent the primary explanation. Nevertheless, that fact suggests that further exploration is in order, which I will endeavor to do in the coming weeks.

Without further ado, here are the numbers, in table and chart form:

2014-15 FA spending by team teable

2014-15 FA spending by team graphic

To view the table and graph from the app, use these links.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates spent much of the winter trying to insulate themselves against the potential departures of players who had been keys to their successful 2013 and 2014 seasons. In the end, they spent surprisingly heavily, given their usual thriftiness, signing two familiar starting pitchers and adding a high-profile but largely untested Korean infielder.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Pirates lost catcher Russell Martin, a key to their franchise-changing 2013 and 2014 campaigns and a bargain to the franchise when he signed following the 2012 season for two years and $17MM. Martin headed to Toronto at a dramatic markup, with the Pirates receiving only a draft pick in return. In Martin’s place, the Bucs acquired former Yankees backstop Francisco Cervelli, who has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t likely to hit nearly as well as Martin did, since Cervelli’s strong offensive performance in a small sample last year was largely BABIP-fueled. Via StatCorner, however, Cervelli and backup Chris Stewart have both ranked as above-average pitch framers in each of the last four seasons, potentially giving the Pirates an edge that won’t be reflected in their catchers’ offensive numbers. Cervelli and Stewart aren’t likely to replace Martin’s .290/.402/.430 2014 season at the plate, but they could approximate Martin’s value behind it at a fraction of the cost.

The Bucs also faced uncertainties in their rotation, given that Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez were eligible for free agency. The Bucs re-signed Liriano for $39MM, more than doubling Martin’s record for the organization’s largest ever free agent contract. To some extent, the Pirates paid heavily for their own handiwork, as their combination of framing, defensive shifts and strong coaching had helped Liriano rebuild his value after he posted consecutive seasons with five-plus ERAs in 2011 and 2012. But the Bucs needed pitching, and there were few better bets on the market, with Brandon McCarthy the only pitcher in the Pirates’ presumed price range who might have been as good a fit for their ground-ball-heavy approach. Liriano’s price was reasonable, too, given that McCarthy and Ervin Santana, pitchers in a similar tier, each got four years and more money (although it should be noted that McCarthy, unlike Liriano and Santana, did not require the loss of a draft pick).

The Pirates’ replacement for Volquez (another pitcher whose value skyrocketed thanks in part to the Bucs’ planning and coaching) fell into their laps in November, when A.J. Burnett told his agent he was only interested in playing in Pittsburgh. Burnett had rejected a $12.75MM player option to remain in Philadelphia, and he took a significant discount to return to the Pirates. Burnett’s peripherals declined with the Phillies, and at 38, he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat his excellent performances with Pittsburgh 2012 and 2013. Like Liriano and Volquez, though, he’s a good fit for the Pirates given his ground ball tendencies and the Bucs’ defense and ballpark, so some rebound from his disappointing, hernia-plagued 2014 season is likely.

The Pirates also allowed Clint Barmes, a light-hitting shortstop whose good glove was often a crucial part of the Bucs’ swarming infield defense, to leave for the Padres via free agency. With Jordy Mercer remaining as the Pirates’ starter, the Bucs first aimed to replace Barmes’ glove by collecting low-cost infielders, including Sean Rodriguez, Justin Sellers, Pedro Florimon and Jake Elmore (who is already out of the organization). Rodriguez, who can also play the outfield, still looks like a fit for the Pirates’ bench, but the Bucs’ plans for the others likely changed in December, when they unexpectedly won the bidding for Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang. The Bucs then signed Kang to a four-year deal with an option for 2019.

It’s hard to tell what to expect of Kang, the first position player from the KBO to arrive in US baseball via the posting system. The 27-year-old posted a ridiculous .356/.459/.739 line with Nexen in 2014, although the KBO is an extremely hitter-friendly league with a competition level significantly lower than that of the Majors, and there are questions about Kang’s ability to handle shortstop in the big leagues. He’ll likely start the season as a bench option for the Pirates. If he proves he can handle big-league pitching, however, he might not stay there. Mercer has never been a star, first baseman Pedro Alvarez is strikeout-prone and erratic, second baseman Neil Walker has struggled to stay healthy, and third baseman Josh Harrison is versatile and can be moved back into his previous super-utility role, so there could be opportunities for Kang to start at some point in the future.

Kang wasn’t the only player from the KBO the Pirates added, also signing Dominican pitcher Radhames Liz, who pitched for the LG Twins from 2011-2013, to a cheap one-year deal. Liz started in Korea, but the Pirates have already suggested they’re likely to use him in relief — not a surprise, given the 31-year-old’s live arm and history of control issues.

To make up for the departure of lefty Justin Wilson in the Cervelli deal, the Bucs traded lefty prospect Joely Rodriguez to the Phillies for Antonio Bastardo, who they’d also reportedly pursued at the 2014 trade deadline. As a fly ball pitcher, Bastardo doesn’t match the Pirates’ usual pitcher type, but he whiffed 11.4 batters per nine innings last season and should give the Bucs an effective second lefty to pair with Tony Watson.

Finally, the Pirates signed Corey Hart to a cheap deal to provide a right-handed bat at first base and in the outfield. Hart effectively replaces Gaby Sanchez, who struggled while serving as the right-handed side of an underwhelming platoon with Ike Davis in 2014. Hart himself missed the entire 2013 season due to injury and had a terrible 2014 in Seattle, but he was well above average in three straight seasons before that, so he might have some upside that Sanchez doesn’t. At $2.5MM (plus some incentives for plate appearance thresholds he isn’t likely to reach), Hart poses little risk.

Questions Remaining

The Bucs have few obvious holes, but it’s unclear whether they have the talent necessary to topple the Cardinals and hold off the Cubs in the NL Central. (And while the Brewers and Reds aren’t as likely to contend, they won’t be complete pushovers either.) With the departure of Travis Snider in a deal with the Orioles, the Bucs will lean heavily on Gregory Polanco in right field. Polanco, who has stratospheric upside, should certainly start, but he struggled in his rookie season in 2014. He has more than enough talent to make the necessary adjustments, but if he doesn’t, the Pirates’ outfield picture could get interesting, particularly if Kang proves he’s good enough to start somewhere in the infield — in that case, Kang could take over at third with Harrison moving to right.

The Pirates’ new first base platoon of Alvarez and Hart might or might not pan out. Alvarez, who had to be moved off third after a series of throwing misadventures last season, has barely played his new position. And then there’s his offense — he’s only two years removed from a 36-homer 2013 campaign, but he has strikeout issues that dramatically limit his ability to hit for average. He improved his plate discipline in 2014, but his new approach perhaps cost him power, as he went from one home run every 17 plate appearances to one every 25. He’s set to make $5.75MM in his penultimate season before free agency eligibility, and this year could be his last in a Pirates uniform, since the arbitration process threatens to pay him more than he’s worth.

The Pirates will also have to determine who belongs in their rotation. Liriano, Burnett and Gerrit Cole are easy choices, along with Charlie Morton, as long as Morton remains on track after having hip surgery late last season. After that, there’s Vance Worley and Jeff Locke, both of whom are out of options. Worley was the better of the two last season, posting a 2.85 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, so he could take over the fifth spot. Locke is too valuable to designate for assignment and probably isn’t ideally suited to relief work, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Pirates trade him near the end of Spring Training if all their big-league starters are healthy. If they did, it would make sense to get a starting pitcher who has options. The Bucs’ rotation depth took a hit in early March when it was revealed that Brandon Cumpton, a starter on the 40-man roster who figured to begin the year at Triple-A Indianapolis, needed to visit Dr. James Andrews.

The Pirates’ biggest problem, though, is that they’ll have to make up for some individual performances they probably won’t get again. Cervelli is capable, but he’s not Martin. Harrison produced an out-of-nowhere 4.9-WAR season that he’s unlikely to repeat, given his previous performance record, although his breakout was fueled in part by an increase in his line-drive rate that’s probably sustainable to some degree. Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Neil Walker had terrific seasons as well. Breakouts from Polanco or Cole would help offset likely declines at other positions. If flame-throwing rookie reliever John Holdzkom can pitch as well over a full season as he did for the Pirates in September, that would help, too.

Deal of Note

USATSI_7997081_154513410_lowresThe Pirates spent most of the offseason accumulating veteran talent where they could, but they went in the opposite direction when they traded Travis Snider to the Orioles for pitching prospects Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault. They had traded two young pitching prospects, Joely Rodriguez and Buddy Borden, in previous offseason deals, so their return in the Snider deal allowed them to replenish their farm system. But it still seemed like an odd trade — even with the left-handed Polanco projected to take over for the Snider in right field, Snider had a clear role on the team as the Bucs’ only projected lefty bench option. Snider hit a solid .268/.338/.438 and produced 1.7 fWAR in just 359 plate appearances last season, so his loss is a significant one, at least on the surface.

Many projection systems think Snider and minor-leaguer Andrew Lambo will produce at about the same rate next year, though, and Snider had never previously had a big-league season like the one he had in 2014. So perhaps the Pirates thought they sold high on Snider while clearing a space for Lambo, who clobbered Triple-A pitching for the second consecutive season last year. And while trading Snider for prospects seems like the behavior of a rebuilding team, not a contending one, GMs increasingly seem to be pursuing multiple goals at once — not just trying to win now or just trying to win later, but trying to do both at the same time.

Overview

Pirates GM Neal Huntington, his front office, and the Bucs’ coaching staff have now produced two straight teams that were better than they appeared to be on paper. The Pirates target pitchers who induce buckets of ground balls, then get the most out of what seem to be average infield defenses with expert positioning. Add in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and the NL’s lack of the DH, and many Pirates pitchers during the last two years — Burnett, Liriano, Volquez, Charlie Morton, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes — were probably as likely to succeed with the Pirates as with any other team in baseball. The way the Bucs help pitchers, chronicled in detail in Travis Sawchik’s forthcoming book Big Data Baseball, is specific and sophisticated enough that certain types of pitchers — ground-ballers who can pitch into the Bucs’ shifts — give the Pirates a significant edge on their competition. The number of pitchers it even makes sense for them to pursue in any given offseason is thus fairly small.

Because of their pitcher support system, the Pirates have a good chance at continued success in the future despite payrolls that most of their fans still find frustratingly low. They have a collection of relatively cheap pitching that they are ideally suited to nurture. They have a franchise player, Andrew McCutchen, who’s under control for four more years thanks to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game, and an emerging star in Starling Marte who’s signed to a team-friendly deal of his own. The Bucs also have one of baseball’s better farm systems, with Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon set to join their rotation by 2016 and Josh Bell perhaps set to take over for Alvarez and Hart at first base around then. By 2018, after which McCutchen is eligible to depart via free agency, maybe those players will be part of a Pirates core headed by Marte, Polanco and Cole.

2014-2015 was about as flashy as Pirates offseasons get, and yet, by the standards of most other teams, they did very little. In fact, with Martin gone, they probably even downgraded. But the Pirates’ plans don’t center on flashy offseason moves. Or, as Huntington puts it, “We’ll never win the offseason.” They probably won’t head into any season in the near future as a favorite to win the World Series, or perhaps even as a runaway favorite to win their division. But they do look like they could continue to contend for the next several seasons, 2015 included.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Recent March Extensions

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It appears that we may already be headed toward our first long-term deal of Spring Training, as Brian Dozier and the Twins are said to be making progress on a long-term deal. Fans should get accustomed to seeing a lot more of this in March, if history is any indication, as Spring Training is often used as a time for teams to negotiate long-term deals with up-and-coming players or to extend the contracts of veterans already under control. Here’s a look at the past couple of years’ worth of action on the March extension front, with an assist from the MLBTR Extension Tracker…

2014 (Extension Tracker link)

  • Matt Carpenter, Cardinals agree to six-year, $52MM extension: Fresh off an MVP-caliber season, the 28-year-old Carpenter inked this pact. Like Dozier, he was between two and three years of service time. While he didn’t quite repeat his 2013 success, Carpenter enjoyed a strong season for the Redbirds and made his second straight All-Star team, doing little to suggest that the Cardinals erred in their decision to extend him.
  • Glen Perkins, Twins agree to two-year, $14.1375MM extension: Perkins, too, made his second straight All-Star team in 2014, though a late-season forearm strain caused his numbers to dip dramatically (his ERA spike from 2.44 to 3.65 before he was shut down Sept. 16). A Minnesota native, Perkins said at the time of the deal he hoped to remain with the Twins for the long haul. The deal gave him two additional guaranteed years, while the Twins picked up a 2018 club option.
  • David Ortiz, Red Sox agree to one-year, $16MM extension: Arguably the face of the Red Sox, Ortiz’s contract eliminated the concern of free agency this past offseason and gave Boston a pair of $10MM club options that can vest at 425 PAs and increase in worth with further PAs. Ortiz launched 35 homers last year, showing no signs of his age.
  • Jose Quintana, White Sox agree to five-year, $21MM extension: Quintana’s deal looks like a brilliant move by the Sox on the heels of a second straight 200-inning season. Quintana notched a 3.32 ERA with even better marks in stats like FIP (2.81), and both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the right direction. Quintana secured his first fortune on the deal and can still hit the free agent market at 32 even if a pair of club options are exercised. Quintana’s guarantee is contingent on his Super Two status, and it seems likely that he’d have been a Super Two, meaning the figure will jump from $21MM to $26.5MM. Add in the options, and he can earn $47.5MM over seven years.
  • Starling Marte, Pirates agree to six-year, $31MM extension: Marte shook off a rough start to the 2014 season and wound up finishing with better numbers than he did in his breakout 2013. He’s batted .286/.349/.447 over the past two seasons, flashing 15-homer power and 35-steal aptitude on the bases. He’s only 26, so he may have even more in the tank.
  • Miguel Cabrera, Tigers agree to eight-year, $248MM extension: Cabrera’s monstrous extension came on the heels of a pair of MVPs and a Triple Crown, but he wasn’t fully healthy in 2014 and his otherworldly numbers dropped to “merely” excellent as a result. However, the notion of paying a 40-year-old Cabrera $32MM is a tough one to get behind, regardless of how great he’s been in his late 20s and early 30s.
  • Mike Trout, Angels agree to six-year, $144.5MM extension: Trout didn’t go the Giancarlo Stanton route of signing a potentially lifetime contract, instead opting for a six-year deal that will let him hit free agency entering his age-29 season. If he keeps up his current pace, he could set a free agent record that won’t be touched for quite some time. Still just 23, Trout took home his first MVP last season with a .287/.377/.561 batting line and 36 homers.
  • Yan Gomes, Indians agree to six-year, $23MM extension: Gomes wasn’t a household name at the time of the deal and that may still be the case, but he should be one. The Brazilian backstop has emerged as one of baseball’s best catchers, and he combined elite defense with a strong .278/.313/.472 batting line last season.

2013 (Extension Tracker link)

  • Chris Sale, White Sox agree to five-year, $32.5MM extension: Sale is on a short list of baseball’s very best pitchers and may have won a Cy Young Award last season were it not for a stint on the disabled list that limited him to 174 innings. His contract allows him to hit the open market at age 31, even if (or, when) both of his options are exercised by Chicago, and in the meantime, the Sox will enjoy a pitcher that has worked to a 2.79 ERA in three full seasons of rotation work.
  • Allen Craig, Cardinals agree to five year, $31MM extension: Craig is one of few names on this list whose deal has gone somewhat south. It looked like a sound move in year one, but a foot injury in 2014 resulted in an abymal .215/.279/.315 slash line. There’s still time to rebound and easily justify the deal, but there’s no certainty of that happening at this time, and he’s already been flipped to the Red Sox in the John Lackey trade.
  • Carlos Gomez, Brewers agree to three-year, $24MM extension: Gomez was the rare Scott Boras client that signed an extension, and Boras may use Gomez as the poster boy for future clients shying away from long-term deals. In what would have been his walk year, Gomez hit .284/.338/.506 with 24 homers, 40 steals and elite defense. That production, heading into his age-28 season, could have resulted in an enormous contract. However, Gomez still stands to be paid handsomely following the 2016 season; he more or less repeated those elite numbers in 2014 and will hit the open market heading into his age-30 campaign.
  • J.A. Happ, Blue Jays agree to one-year, $5.4MM extension: Happ signed a somewhat bizarre extension that bought out his final year of arbitration eligibility at the price of surrendering a year of team control via club option, and the Mariners will be the ones to receive whatever value he provides in that option year, as he was flipped to Seattle for Michael Saunders in a one-for-one swap. Happ recorded a 4.22 ERA in 158 frames last season but will be in a much better pitchers’ park in 2015.
  • Adam Wainwright, Cardinals agree to five-year, $97.5MM extension: Wainwright is entering the second season of this deal and his been his typically excellent self since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2012. Some are concerned about the mileage on his arm and his age, but he’s still among the top pitchers in the National League. Wainwright posted a 2.38 ERA in 227 innings last season and finished third in Cy Young voting.
  • Buster Posey, Giants agree to eight-year, $159MM extension: Posey signed on to be the face of the franchise in San Francisco, and he’s been just that over the past two seasons (perhaps alongside Madison Bumgarner), hitting .303/.368/.470 in 1200 plate appearances. That production becomes even more impressive when considering it’s coming from a catcher who plays half his games in the cavernous AT&T Park.
  • Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks agree to five-year, $32MM extension: Speaking of faces of the franchise, Goldschmidt has undoubtedly become that in Arizona. A fractured hand suffered when he was hit by a pitch cut his 2014 season short, but Goldy’s hit .302/.399/.548 over the past two seasons, homering at a pace of 34 per 162 games played in that time. He’s among baseball’s very best overall hitters.
  • Justin Verlander, Tigers agree to five-year, $140MM extension: Verlander was excellent in 2013 before struggling through perhaps his worst season in 2014. He underwent core muscle surgery on his abdomen last January, which may have impacted his season, but he’ll need to bounce back from his 4.54 ERA and see his 6.9 K/9 rebound, because his extension technically begins this year. (He was already controlled through 2014 when he signed.) Verlander will be paid $28MM annually through 2019 — his age-36 season.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • MLB Trade Rumors Podcast featured host Jeff Todd discussing the Red Sox’s signing of Yoan Moncada and the rest of the Cuban market with MLB.com national reporter Jesse Sanchez. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk then joined Jeff to review this past offseason’s free agent signings with a focus on the White Sox and Pirates. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast will be released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • Steve Adams spoke with Giants Assistant GM Bobby Evans, Braves Assistant GM John Coppolella, and Angels Assistant GM Matt Klentak about a club’s “responsibility” in the arbitration process.
  • Tim Dierkes listed the position of MLBTR’s top 2016 free agents on in-season extension talks.
  • Jeff named eight potential destinations for Rafael Soriano. More than a quarter of MLBTR readers see the Blue Jays signing the right-handed reliever.
  • Jeff was the first to report Wily Mo Pena agreed to a one-year contract with NPB’s Rakuten Eagles.
  • Steve hosted this week’s live chat.
  • Zach Links assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Looking At Landing Spots For Rafael Soriano

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The last man standing on Tim Dierkes’s Top Fifty Free Agent list is reliever Rafael Soriano. I predicted that he would land two years and $12MM before the offseason started, though I noted that there was a downside scenario where he could earn less. (Check that link for a full write-up of Soriano’s free agent case.)

With pitchers and catchers already reporting around the game, it is even more difficult now to peg the contract — all the more so with a report that some scouts felt his stuff went downhill late last year. The similarly-situated Rodriguez just got $13MM over two years, so there’s still some money to be spent. But that came from the Brewers, perhaps the last team that was intent on making an investment in the back of the bullpen.

We haven’t heard much on Soriano’s market all offseason, and even more recent reports have focused on him as a possible backup option to Rodriguez. While there are strong arguments against all the teams listed below, they seem at least the most hypothetically plausible.

Blue Jays – The front office has heavily downplayed the possibility of a big league deal with a reliever, but the closer role remains open and the club has at least considered going after Soriano.

Dodgers – Kenley Jansen is out for a while and the overall relief corps is not that exciting, but the team just signed Dustin McGowan and preliminary reports of possible interest in Soriano have been contested.

Marlins – They are said not to be likely suitors, but did reportedly make a multi-year offer to K-Rod so obviously have some free cash that could be put into the pen.

Orioles – Zach Britton is left-handed and only has half a year of success in the ninth; Dan Duquette has shown a predilection for jumping on late-market deals.

Rangers – After burning through an unbelievable number of arms last year, Texas is leaning on a relatively recent TJ patient in Neftali Feliz — to say nothing of the less-established arms in camp.

Rockies – With John Axford already joining the fold on a minor league deal as a supplement to LaTroy Hawkins, it doesn’t seem likely, but Colorado could look to make a minor splash if the price is right.

Tigers – Detroit may make eminent sense or none at all, depending on one’s perspective; I find it unlikely but not unimaginable after the signing of Joba Chamberlain.

Twins – Glen Perkins could use some back-up after late-2014 elbow issues, and even if he’s healthy he anchors an otherwise uninspiring unit.

Other – There are other major league teams, as you may know, and all are free to sign Soriano. With plenty of earnings already in his pocket, might Soriano wait for an injury need to open the door to a more significant role?

We may as well take a poll while we’re at it. Which of the above seems most plausible to you?

What Is The Most Likely Landing Spot For Rafael Soriano?
Blue Jays 25.54% (2,288 votes)
Dodgers 15.24% (1,365 votes)
Other 13.49% (1,208 votes)
Tigers 11.21% (1,004 votes)
Orioles 10.08% (903 votes)
Marlins 9.58% (858 votes)
Rangers 7.61% (682 votes)
Twins 4.82% (432 votes)
Rockies 2.43% (218 votes)
Total Votes: 8,958
Show all

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