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AL East Notes: Manoah, Shapiro, Rortvedt, Bautista

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“I don’t think there’s been any talks about anything” involving a long-term extension between Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays, the right-hander told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.  Noting that he is under team control through 2027, Manoah didn’t seem to expect any negotiations in the near future, saying “I don’t think I’m a priority right now.”  The right-hander did state that “there’s no hard feelings, it’s just the business part of it” in regards to both the lack of talks, and Manoah’s decision to again take a salary renewal from the Jays rather than officially agree to their offered salary for his pre-arbitration season.  Manoah will earn $745,650 in 2023, and he might become eligible for arbitration as early as next winter if he gains Super Two status.

Extending Manoah would give the Jays come cost certainty over what might be some increasingly pricey arbitration years, given how impressive he has looked in his first two MLB seasons.  After a strong rookie campaign, Manoah took things a step further in his first full season, posting a 2.24 ERA over 196 2/3 innings and finishing third in AL Cy Young Award voting.  If an extension didn’t come, Manoah said “I’m completely happy riding out that [arbitration] process and allowing the team to go spend money on other guys and me continuing to earn my value and earn what I hope to get one day,” though he also stated that “I want to play in Toronto for a long time.”

More from around the AL East…

  • Sticking with the Blue Jays, there was some surprise that the team surpassed the luxury tax threshold for the first time this winter, and bumped its real-dollars payroll from $175MM (already a club high) in 2022 to a projected $211.7MM heading into Spring Training.  But, team president Mark Shapiro told The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm that “on the expense side, this is the way we envisioned it” after going through their rebuilding phase.  “Once we have that mass of talent, we want to put it in a position to sustainably be a championship-calibre team. So we need to surround it with talent, where we have gaps,” Shapiro said.  “But not build the team solely through free agency, supplement a team through free agency….The thought was we’d always have to ramp up payroll as we went.”  The Jays have some regular shoppers in the higher-end free agent market over the last four offseasons, signing such players as George Springer, Hyun Jin Ryu, Kevin Gausman, and (most recently) Chris Bassitt to expensive long-term deals, while also investing in some pricier trade targets and contract extensions.
  • The Yankees announced earlier this week that catcher Ben Rortvedt underwent surgery to remove an aneurysm in the posterior artery near his left shoulder, and that he’ll miss at least a month before resuming baseball activities.  The injury was “really shocking” to Rortvedt, as he told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty, since he first assumed that the soreness in the pointer finger of his glove hand was a normal side effect of catching.  But, after he noticed his finger was starting to turn blue, Rortvedt went for further examination, and apparently not a moment too soon.  According to orthopedic surgeon Dr. Armin Tehrany, such a circulation problem created “the risk of permanent soft tissue damage,” and Rortvedt “might [have needed] to get something amputated.”  Fortunately, it looks like Rortvedt won’t miss all that much time, and the catcher will finally get to start his Yankees career after missing the 2022 season due to oblique and knee injuries.
  • Felix Bautista threw another bullpen session today, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes, as the Orioles closer was aiming to ramp up to 80-85 percent readiness.  Bautista is still recovering from left knee problems that cropped up at the end of last season, as well as an offseason problem for strengthening his throwing shoulder.  Today’s work marked Bautista’s sixth throwing session overall, so he appears to be on pace to reach his stated goal of making the Opening Day roster.  Bautista’s first MLB season was a thorough success, as he posted a 2.19 ERA and an elite 34.8% strikeout rate (albeit with a below-average 9.1% walk rate) over 65 1/3 innings, becoming one of many breakout players for the surprising Orioles.

Pitching Notes: Bello, Bautista, Severino, McCullers

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With pitchers and catchers having now reported to their respective spring training sites, there’s a fair bit of news around the health of a number of pitchers around the sport.

Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello will take the weekend off throwing, and hopes to be able to throw again Monday, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. Bello apparently felt tightness in his forearm this week. Any time tightness and forearm are mentioned in the same sentence regarding a young pitcher there’s a fair bit of concern, but Bello says he believes it’s due to throwing a higher number of breaking balls of late.

In any case, he’ll be shutdown temporarily and the Red Sox and Bello will be hoping he’s good to go next week. Bello figures to compete for a spot in the Red Sox’ starting rotation this year. The 23-year-old made 11 solid starts (and two relief appearances) last season, working to a 4.71 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.

Here’s a few other injury tidbits from around the sport:

  • Orioles closer Felix Bautista told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that he expects to be ready for opening day. Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing left knee and right shoulder injuries, and has thrown four bullpen sessions since January. He’s believes he’ll be ready to get into spring matches around March 15, and will need four or five spring innings to get up to speed. Bautista was dominant for the Orioles during his rookie year last season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out batters at a quality 34.8% clip.
  • Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been shut down temporarily following him experiencing some soreness in his throwing arm (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). There’s always a bit of concern there particularly given McCullers’ injury history, but manager Dusty Baker gave reporters a promising outlook “he’s just getting treatment. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s feeling better.” McCullers is into his eighth season with the Astros. A forearm strain suffered in 2021 limited him to just eight starts in 2022, but he still worked to an impressive 2.27 ERA in those handful of appearances.
  • Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign. After missing the bulk of three-straight seasons, Severino returned to make 19 starts last year, working to a 3.18 ERA. A lat strain sidelined him for two months of the season, but the Yankees were unsurprisingly happy to exercise the $15MM club option they held over the 28-year-old ahead of the 2023 season. While the significant injury history won’t help, a full season of ~30 starts of his typically excellent output could set Severino up for a big payday next winter. “Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yankees are depending even more so on a healthy season from Severino after the news that Frankie Montas will miss the majority of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

Orioles Provide Health Updates On Several Pitchers

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias met with the media as pitchers and catchers report to the team’s spring training facility in Sarasota, Fla., and the GM provided a handful of less-than-ideal updates regarding his pitching staff. Most notably, righty Dillon Tate sustained a forearm/flexor strain in late November and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season (Twitter link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Tate will open the year on the 15-day injured list.

Meanwhile, closer Felix Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing from the left knee injury that ended his season and has also been on a strengthening program for his right shoulder (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). His spring debut will be delayed, so he’s not a lock to be ready by Opening Day. Top prospect DL Hall is also behind schedule after experiencing some lower lumber discomfort about three weeks ago (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Elias didn’t rule out the possibility that southpaw Nick Vespi, who underwent surgery to repair a hernia in early January, would be ready for Opening Day, but that’s not a given either.

Tate’s injury status is presently the largest blow to the club, as he quietly stepped up as a high-end setup piece for Bautista in 2022. The former No. 4 overall draft pick logged a career-high 73 2/3 innings while recording a tidy 3.05 ERA. Tate picked up 16 holds and five saves, offsetting a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate with excellent walk and ground-ball rates of 5.5% and 57.1%, respectively.

The Orioles and Tate agreed to a $1.5MM salary earlier in the offseason, avoiding an arbitration hearing in Tate’s first trip through the process. He’s under control through the 2025 campaign and had previously looked to be in the running for Baltimore’s top setup option to Bautista. At least in the season’s early stages, some of those high-leverage innings that would’ve gone to Tate will now instead fall to veteran Mychal Givens — who returned to the O’s on a one-year free agent deal this winter — and lefty Cionel Perez.

Speaking of Bautista, there’s no firm indication that he’ll miss any regular-season time just yet, but even a short-term absence would be a notable hit to the bullpen. The 27-year-old hadn’t pitched above A-ball until 2021, when he posted a combined 1.54 ERA across three minor league levels, topping out with just 18 1/3 frames in Triple-A. That, apparently, was all the upper-minors seasoning he needed; Bautista not only made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster in 2022 but almost immediately broke out as one of the game’s top relievers.

In 65 2/3 innings last season, Bautista notched an outstanding 2.19 ERA and tallied the first 15 saves of his career. He averaged an obscene 99.3 mph on both his four-seamer and his sinker, which played a huge role in the right-hander’s gaudy 34.8% strikeout rate. Unlike many flamethrowers who lack any semblance of precision with their high-octane heaters, Bautista turned in a 9.1% walk rate that matched the league-average walk rate for relief pitchers. Obviously, it’s discouraging to hear that last year’s knee issue required what was apparently a relatively lengthy rehab process, but to this point the O’s haven’t broadcast any reason for major concern, either.

As for Hall, the back troubles could throw a wrench into his bid for a spot in the team’s rotation to begin the season. The former first-round pick (No. 21 in 2017) has stated at multiple points this winter that his goal is to win a starting job to begin the season. Given his prospect status and the general uncertainty on the Orioles’ staff behind Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, that seemed plausible, but expectations should likely be tempered until it becomes clearer as to when Hall’s spring regiment can begin in earnest.

The 24-year-old Hall made his MLB debut last season, starting one game and making ten relief appearances. In 13 1/3 frames, he was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA was an eyesore, but Hall flashed huge strikeout potential by fanning 19 of the 64 batters he faced (29.7%). He hasn’t any problems missing bats in the minors, either, evidenced by a mammoth 43.4% strikeout rate in 35 1/3 career Double-A frames as well as a 36.1% mark in 76 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.

Where Hall has struggled — and struggled repeatedly — is with his command. The lefty has walked an untenable 13.4% of his opponents across parts of five minor league seasons, including an even more troublesome 14.2% mark in Triple-A. That lack of command has prompted many scouting reports to peg Hall for a future in the bullpen, but the O’s are understandably intent on giving him a legitimate opportunity to stick as a starter. He’s been used almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, with 69 of his 77 total appearances coming out of the rotation.

If Hall is behind schedule to the point that he can’t be ready for a big league rotation spot early in the year, that’ll create additional opportunities for Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez. That said, so long as Hall’s back injury doesn’t prove too serious, he’ll likely get an opportunity early in the season. He and Rodriguez are the organization’s top two pitching prospects, and while Rodriguez (arguably the sport’s top all-around pitching prospect) is typically held in higher regard, Hall nevertheless landed in the No. 75 spot on Baseball America’s 2023 Top 100 prospect rankings.

Tigers’ Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

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The Tigers have lots of uncertainty with their lineup and rotation but they still have some interesting hurlers in their bullpen. That’s leading to a great deal of interest on the trade market, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noting that the bull market for relievers so far this offseason has only added to the interest.

Back in July, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the many intriguing relievers that could make for interesting trade chips for Detroit. After the trade deadline came and went, they traded only one of them: impending free agent Michael Fulmer. Since then, they lost Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency, the latter declining a player opt-out. But they still have plenty of talent back there, with Rosenthal listing Joe Jiménez, Gregory Soto and Alex Lange as some of the candidates, though there’s also Jason Foley, José Cisnero and Will Vest.

Trading from this group will likely be a balancing act for Scott Harris, the club’s new president of baseball operations. Subtracting talented arms from the roster will undoubtedly hurt the club’s chances at competing in the short term. However, the odds may be stacked against them anyway. The rotation will be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal for at least part of the year, as they are both coming off of surgeries that will keep them joining the club to start the season. Spencer Turnbull should be healthy but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be an unknown going into next year. The lineup will be looking for bouncebacks from Javier Báez, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Meadows and Akil Baddoo, while hoping that struggling youngsters like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Ryan Kreidler take steps forward. There’s a lot that needs to break right for short-term success and the club may think about sacrificing some of the present for the sake of the future.

If the club views their circumstances through this lens, each reliever will be a unique case when it comes to the calculus of considering a trade. Jiménez, for instance, has between five and six years of MLB service time. That means he’s slated for free agency one year from now. 2022 was his finest season to date, as he threw 56 2/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 33.1% ground ball rate. He might have actually been better than the ERA indicates, with his .328 BABIP well above league average. His 2.00 FIP, 2.90 xERA and 2.30 SIERA all suggest he was unlucky to have his ERA settle where it did. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of just $2.6MM in his final pass through arbitration before reaching the open market. Cisnero is also just one year away from free agency, though he’s in the opposite position statistically. He posted a 1.08 ERA in 2022 but with a sky high 18.1% walk rate. A .242 BABIP kept him from really feeling the consequences of all those free passes. He’s projected for a $2.2MM salary next year.

Contracts for free agent relievers have been pricey so far, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM for five years, Robert Suarez $46MM over five and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three, making Jiménez and his modest salary quite appealing. From Detroit’s point of view, it might help them in the long run to turn their single year of control over Jiménez into prospects that can help them six or seven years down the line.

Where the calculus gets a little trickier is relievers who aren’t as close to the open market as Jiménez. Gregory Soto has just over three years of service time, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after 2025. That means he’s much more likely to be able to help the Tigers to compete in the future but also means he could net a greater trade return. He posted a 3.28 ERA this year with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground ball rate, but a 12.9% walk rate. The control issue has long been present for him, as he’s never posted a walk rate below 12%. For reference, this year’s league average for relievers was 9.1%. Trading him would be somewhat akin to the Orioles moving on from Jorge López at this year’s deadline. Lopez had 2.5 years of control remaining at the time and netted the O’s four prospects, but also cost them a proven reliever who could have stayed with them down the stretch and for 2023 and 2024.

If the Tigers are willing to consider trading a pitcher with even more control, they have some options in Lange, Foley and Vest. All three of them have between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning they have five years of club control remaining. Lange had a 3.69 ERA in 63 1/3 innings this year, along with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 55.6% ground ball rate, though a high 11.4% walk rate. Foley tossed 60 1/3 frames with a 3.88 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 57.1% ground ball rate. Vest got 63 innings of action with a 4.00 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. These guys have yet to reach arbitration and have years of cheap control, which makes them valuable to other teams but also potentially valuable to the Tigers as well.

As for the Orioles, Rosenthal mentions them as another team stacked with relievers that could garner trade interest. However, most of them are in the latter category of still having years of cheap control remaining and are thus less likely to be moved. Félix Bautista, for instance, is not on the table in trade talks.

Orioles Shut Down Félix Bautista

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The Orioles have announced that right-handed pitcher Félix Bautista has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to left knee discomfort, retroactive to October 1. Fellow righty Yennier Cano was recalled in a corresponding move. Earlier today, manager Brandon Hyde had relayed to reporters that Bautista would be shut down, with Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com among those to relay the news.

The fact that Bautista is being shut down is fairly sensible. His knee has been bothering him for a few days now, but the club kept him around as they clung to their diminishing postseason aspirations. With the Orioles officially eliminated over the weekend, it makes sense to let Bautista go into offseason mode as opposed to potentially making his knee worse as they play out the string.

In the end, it will go down as a tremendous debut campaign for the hulking right-hander, a season that felt like it came out of nowhere. Bautista actually began his career in the Marlins’ organization but was released in January of 2015 after posting a 12.41 ERA in rookie ball in 2014. He was signed by the Orioles to a new deal in October of 2016 and has been working his way up the minor league ladder since then.

As he made his way towards the majors, he often paired huge strikeout numbers with troubling walk totals. That was still the case last year, as he threw 46 2/3 innings across three different levels, posting a 1.54 ERA and 39.7% strikeout rate despite walking 15.5% of batters faced. Though the signs of potential were there, Bautista never cracked Baseball America’s list of top 30 prospects in the system. FanGraphs listed him in the past three years, but always in the #30-45 range.

Still, Baltimore believed in the stuff enough that they added him to the roster in November of last year to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which ended up being canceled by the lockout. Bautista took a huge step forward here in 2022, cracking the club’s Opening Day roster and almost immediately cementing himself as a lockdown reliever. He threw 65 2/3 innings over 65 games with a 2.19 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate. He even showed improved control, limiting walks to a manageable 9.1% rate. He moved his way up the leverage chart for the O’s as the season went on, notching 15 saves and 13 holds.

Though his season ends with a bit of a down note, he and the club will look forward to 2023. After years of dismal results, Baltimore has posted a solid 82-77 record here in 2022 so far, their first winning season since 2016. Bautista was one of many rookies to debut and show promise this year, with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others giving the fanbase something to dream on throughout the winter. Bautista will finish the season with exactly one year of MLB service time, meaning he won’t be slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024 and free agency after 2027.

Orioles Select DL Hall, Five Others

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The Baltimore Orioles have added 6 players to their 40-man roster, the club announced. The names making their way to the roster include left-handed pitchers DL Hall and Kevin Smith, right-handed pitchers Félix Bautista, Kyle Bradish, and Logan Gillaspie, and infielder Terrin Vavra. These additions bring Baltimore’s roster up to just shy of full capacity, at 39 players.

A starting pitcher, DL Hall has been a frequenter of top prospect lists for a few years now in the Baltimore organization. The former first-rounder dominated in his first taste of Double-A in 2021, pitching to a 3.13 ERA with a ludicrous 43.8% of batters striking out against him through 31+ innings. The 22-year-old incurred a left elbow injury that ended his season prematurely, however.

Fellow left-hander Kevin Smith had a mixed season in 2021, flashing strong strikeout (35% strikeout rate) and run prevention numbers (1.34 ERA) in 26 Double-A innings but struggling upon promotion to Triple-A. MLB.com projects Smith as a serviceable Major League-caliber pitcher in the future, but he’ll first have to iron out the rough control issues (17.9% walk rate) that spoiled his Triple-A season.

The 26-year-old Bautista saw his stock sore after a brilliant 2021 season across three levels. Altogether, the right-handed reliever posted a minuscule 1.54 ERA through Triple-A, striking out droves at each level and surrendering just two home runs in 46 innings. If there was one nit to pick, it would be that Bautista’s command was wobbly, as his walk-rate rose as high as 19.3% at the Double-A level.

Right-handed starter Kyle Bradish followed a similar trend as the two most previously listed pitchers, as he dominated in Double-A before coming back to earth a bit after a promotion to the next level. After striking out nearly two batters in inning in 13+ scoreless Double-A frames, Bradish struggled to miss bats or hit the strike zone as often in Triple-A, putting up 4.26 ERA in 86 innings. All told the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.68 ERA and may find himself making his debut for a pitching-strapped Orioles squad in the near future.

Logan Gillaspie, a catcher-turned-reliever out of indie ball, pitched to a 4.97 ERA across 41 innings as he climbed to Double-A for the first time. That ERA may not be the best indicator of Gillaspie’s skills however, as the 24-year-old had a strikeout rate just under 30% to go with above average command and groundball-inducing abilities.

Terrin Vavra is last on the list, as the 24-year-old second baseman is being protected on the heels of a .275/.406/.449 showing. Injuries allowed Vavra to play in just 48 games during the 2021 season, but his patience and ability to play center field in a pinch clearly drew the favor of Baltimore evaluators.

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