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2015-16 Offseason In Review News & Rumors

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

By | at March 21, 2016 7:00pm CDT

You can find all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The D-backs had perhaps the most surprising, aggressive offseason of any club in baseball in an effort to make a run at the NL West crown.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, the rotation was known to be Arizona’s greatest need, but for financial reasons, the expectation was more that the D-backs would pursue second-tier arms like Kenta Maeda and Mike Leake than the names at the very top of the market. That, of course, changed in a matter of about 12 hours, which is reportedly the length of time it took the D-backs to sign Zack Greinke to a staggering six-year, $206.5MM contract after owner Ken Kendrick called his front office and gave the green light.

Zack Greinke

Unlike Greinke’s previous deal, this new contract doesn’t contain an opt-out. While a few million dollars of that sum is deferred, the Diamondbacks are paying Greinke more than $31MM annually, and the actual $34.4MM annual value of the deal (before deferrals) is the largest in Major League history. That represents a huge percentage of the spending capacity of an organization that has only once topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll. The Diamondbacks are betting that Greinke will not only age well, but continue to produce at an elite level — one near the collective 2.30 ERA that he posted over the life of his three years with the division-rival Dodgers. At the very least, they’re counting on him to perform over the life of the next three years, which is the amount of time for which the club controls standout center fielder A.J. Pollock and the team’s other blockbuster offseason addition: right-hander Shelby Miller.

In order to acquire three years of Miller, the D-backs parted with 2015 breakout Ender Inciarte, 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson and top prospect Aaron Blair. The price paid was astounding to most, and I’ll look at the Miller deal in full later in this review, but there’s little doubt that the D-backs have overwhelmingly improved upon the collection of starters with which they entered the 2015 season. Greinke, Miller and a full season of the excellent and underrated Patrick Corbin (who missed half of the ’15 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery) give the club one of the more impressive rotation trios in the big leagues.

Joining that group will be right-hander Rubby De La Rosa and left-hander Robbie Ray. While De La Rosa hasn’t yet cemented himself as a high-quality big league starter, he proved durable last season by racking up 188 1/3 innings and carries further upside. (If nothing else, his velocity and dominance over right-handers suggests that he could be converted to a successful reliever if he continues posting upper-4.00 ERAs.) Ray, acquired in the three-team deal that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees, somewhat quietly delivered a strong season, posting a 3.52 ERA and solid peripheral stats in 127 1/3 innings. Although they traded a near-MLB-ready arm in Blair, the D-backs still have Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley on the cusp of the Major Leagues, so there’s depth beyond the starting five should a need arise.

The Diamondbacks have also long been connected to bullpen help — most notably, Aroldis Chapman — but they instead brought in the highly durable Tyler Clippard on a two-year deal late in the offseason. Clippard has been baseball’s iron man in the pen. Dating back to the 2009 season, his 524 1/3 lead all big league relievers, and it’s not even close. Luke Gregerson ranks second on that list but is 44 1/3 innings behind; essentially, Clippard has thrown two-thirds of a season’s worth of innings more than any other reliever since establishing himself in 2009.

There are varying ways to interpret that durability, of course. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed the deal this offseason on our podcast, with Jeff viewing the deal as a solid value and a sensible move given the organization’s other acquisitions. I’m more skeptical, particularly in light of last year’s results. While Clippard delivered an excellent 2.92 ERA in his age-30 season, his strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate and velocity all trended in the wrong direction, and he posted a 21.2 percent ground-ball rate. If the innings have begun to catch up to Clippard and/or he posts a fly-ball rate near 60 percent at the homer-friendly Chase Field, the return on Arizona’s investment could be marginal. The D-backs were already burned once by acquiring an extreme fly-ball reliever in Addison Reed, and Clippard is an even more pronounced fly-ball arm. If, on the other hand, last year was an anomaly and Clippard pitches more like his 2010-14 self, the Diamondbacks will have deepened their ‘pen at a very reasonable price.

Continued analysis after the break …

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Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By | at March 19, 2016 4:55pm CDT

In his first offseason on the job, new GM Jerry Dipoto aggressively turned over the Mariners’ roster, augmenting a talented core with a collection of complementary pieces that should be better fits than last year’s were.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Many new GMs begin their tenures by completely revamping their new franchises, but that wasn’t necessary for Jerry Dipoto, who took over a 76-win Mariners team that was merely disappointing, rather than hopeless. Dipoto inherited Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz and Taijuan Walker, a group that would form a good starting point for any new GM.

Accordingly, Dipoto spent the offseason retooling, rather than rebuilding. After replacing Lloyd McClendon in the manager’s chair with former fellow Angels exec Scott Servais, Dipoto quickly took to the task of turning the Mariners’ talented core into a contender. Most of the talent the Mariners received this winter was acquired with the present in mind. Despite the fact that this offseason wasn’t a massive change of direction for the franchise, however, it was a very busy one.

One of Dipoto’s most crucial moves, of course, was to re-sign one of the previous administration’s key players. In early December, Hisashi Iwakuma had agreed to a three-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers, but the Dodgers tried to adjust the deal due to an issue with his physical. Iwakuma then opted to return to Seattle for significantly less guaranteed money — just $12MM, even less than the qualifying offer he’d rejected earlier in the offseason. The deal also contains two relatively cheap club/vesting options, giving the Mariners additional value. Iwakuma got a no-trade clause and the opportunity for bigger paydays if he stays healthy, but his deal was, overall, a remarkably cheap one for the Mariners, given how effective Iwakuma has been since arriving from Japan prior to the 2012 season. Iwakuma has, thus far, made three spring starts without incident, so whatever gave the Dodgers pause hasn’t yet shown itself to be an issue, and the Mariners’ modest upfront commitment protects them in case he does get hurt.

Dipoto’s first significant move, though, completed in early November, was to ship Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Danny Farquhar to Tampa for Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser and Boog Powell. Later, Dipoto sent Riefenhauser and Mark Trumbo to the Orioles for catcher Steve Clevenger. The two deals addressed two key issues with the 2015 Mariners — that they had a logjam at shortstop, and that they were a mismatched and below-average defense team with too many all-bat, no-glove players.

At 26, shortstop Miller still has promise, but he struggled defensively in 2015, to the point that he frequently played outfield last season while the younger and slicker-fielding Ketel Marte played short. The team also still has Chris Taylor in the fold. So the Rays trade allowed the Mariners to commit more thoroughly to Marte and avoid the roster headache of what to do with Miller. The Mariners also managed to unload Morrison, who’d hit a mere .225/.302/.383 in 2015 while providing little defensive value. Morrison seems likely to rebound somewhat in the coming season, but he doesn’t appear likely to be much more than a replacement-level player. The M’s might have sold somewhat low on Farquhar, who is better than his 5.12 2015 ERA suggests, but his velocity and strikeout rate have dipped in each of the last two seasons.

In return for three players for whom they didn’t have a pressing need, the Mariners received a package centered on Nate Karns, a useful starter with five years of team control remaining. Karns’ peripherals in 2015 didn’t quite support his 3.67 ERA, thanks in part to a high walk rate. But he’s a good bet to provide his share of strikeouts and give the Mariners 150 solid innings. They also got Boog Powell, an outfield prospect with modest power but real on-base skills who could arrive at some point during the season.

The third player in that trade was Riefenhauser, who headed to Baltimore along with Trumbo in a move seemingly designed to clear salary and reduce roster headaches. Steve Clevenger, the Mariners’ return in the trade, is a low-upside backup catcher, and Trumbo certainly has usable power,  particularly against lefties. But he was due a hefty 2016 salary through the arbitration process ($9.2MM, as it turned out), and his lack of defensive value and issues getting on base created nearly as many problems as his power solved.

A week after the Trumbo trade, the Mariners sent three very young pitching prospects (Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki and Freddy Peralta) to Milwaukee for Adam Lind, who will be the Mariners’ new primary first baseman. Lind needs to be platooned, and like Morrison and Trumbo, he isn’t a superlative defender. He is, however, a significantly better hitter than either one. Trumbo’s stats will probably improve this year heading from Safeco Field to Camden Yards, and Lind’s are likely to dip heading from Miller Park to Seattle, but he’s still a quality player whose on-base skills should help the Mariners’ lineup.

As for the three prospects heading to the Brewers, it’s worth noting that Dipoto was very new to the GM job at the time of the trade, and there’s a bit of danger in not knowing exactly what you’re trading, especially with players like Herrera, Missaki and Peralta, all of whom have yet to turn 20 and posted very good peripheral numbers in the low minors last year. Still, Dipoto’s Mariners probably had a clearer read than anyone else on those players, particularly since Dipoto retained many of the team’s key front office execs.

More analysis after the break.

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Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

By | at March 19, 2016 12:15am CDT

This is the latest installment of our Offseason in Review series. You can see a full index of the series here.

After a very brief retooling effort at last year’s trade deadline, the Tigers, led by new GM Al Avila, entered the offseason with a characteristic win-now approach and spent heavily.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Though the Tigers entered the offseason with a new GM, the club’s M.O. was as familiar as ever; the words “lengthy rebuild” aren’t in the Detroit vernacular, and former GM Dave Dombrowski’s trades of David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria are probably the closest thing we’ll see to a rebuilding process under owner Mike Ilitch. Ilitch is one of the most aggressive owners in baseball, and another quarter-billion dollars spent on player salary this offseason speaks to that point. Ilitch candidly noted at a press conference this offseason that he “doesn’t care” about spending money. His goal is to put a winner on the field, and Avila acted aggressively in an effort to make that dream a reality.

Jordan Zimmermann

Price, Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene were all trade acquisitions made to help bolster the pitching staff in the final 13 months of Dombrowski’s tenure, but Price was traded, Simon struggled prior to hitting the open market, and injuries cut Greene’s season short. The Tigers clearly needed rotation help despite having landed a pair of MLB-ready starters for Price in Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, and Avila made his first free-agent signing a significant one in the form of a five-year, $110MM contract for Jordan Zimmermann. The 2015 season came with some red flags for Zimmermann — notably, a diminished strikeout rate and slightly increased walk rate — but he’s averaged 203 high quality innings per season across the past four years, and the Tigers will be counting on more of the same for the foreseeable future.

That track record of quality innings isn’t there for Mike Pelfrey, but the Tigers clearly believe he’s capable of delivering, as they inked him to a two-year, $16MM contract to serve as the club’s fourth starter, falling in line behind Justin Verlander, Zimmermann and Anibal Sanchez. (Norris is the favorite to hold down the final spot.) The Pelfrey contract was inexpensive compared to many of the other deals for starting pitchers that we saw this offseason, but it still raised some eyebrows; Pelfrey is a former top pick that settled in as a durable innings eater for the 2008-11 Mets, but he has a 4.94 ERA with largely uninspiring peripherals since returning from 2012 Tommy John surgery. As a ground-ball pitcher, he’ll benefit from Jose Iglesias and Ian Kinsler, but a more patient approach to that second rotation spot might’ve better served the club.

Cespedes’ departure created a need for the Tigers in the outfield, and the club initially looked to address the option somewhat on the cheap. While Braves GM John Coppolella indicated that he wasn’t interested in trading Cameron Maybin to clear salary, that seems to have been one of the more significant factors in the trade that sent Maybin from Atlanta back to the Tigers (his original organization), as Avila parted with a fairly modest price of lefty relievers Ian Krol and Gabe Speier to land him. The Maybin deal, at the time, was said by Avila to likely signal the end of the club’s outfield pursuits, but over the holidays, Ilitch became convinced that the club needed another big bat, and Justin Upton was signed to a six-year deal shortly thereafter. He’ll give the club a bat comparable to the one they lost in Cespedes, pushing Maybin into a platoon with Anthony Gose in center field.

Justin Upton

Upton’s deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season, and while he’s stated that he signed the deal to come to Detroit for six years, it’s difficult to imagine him playing well for a couple of seasons and neglecting to exercise the clause. Upton will play the coming season at age 28, so there’s no reason to expect a decline in his bat, which has been about 25 percent better than the league average across the past seven seasons.

Revamping the bullpen — a perennial Achilles heel for otherwise strong Tigers clubs — was a goal for Avila in his first winter in control as well. To that end, he acquired an experienced and still-highly-effective late-inning arm in Francisco Rodriguez, pairing him with an excellent left-handed setup option in Justin Wilson and a resurgent right-handed option in Mark Lowe. K-Rod and Wilson were acquired without sacrificing any of the organization’s top 15 or so prospects — a nice value for Avila & Co., especially considering the fact that Wilson has three years of control remaining. Lowe’s two-year deal will be addressed at greater length below.

Questions Remaining

The Tigers will be paying $70MM for their top four starting pitchers this season, but outside of Zimmermann, none of the four has a strong track record in recent seasons. Verlander looked sharp late in the 2015 campaign, logging a 2.27 ERA over his final 99 1/3 innings, but his velocity remained in the 92-93 mph range, and it seems unlikely that it will ever reach its previous heights. Sanchez has battled injuries over the past two seasons and has yet to appear in a Grapefruit League game, in part due to triceps inflammation. Pelfrey, of course, struggled throughout the majority of his Twins tenure, as previously noted.

Detroit’s infield is mostly set, but third base remains a question. Nick Castellanos improved in the field and showed a bit more power in his second season last year, but he still graded out below average overall with the glove (-9 DRS, -10 UZR) and at the plate (98 OPS+, 94 wRC+). Castellanos’ slugging percentage was about league average for a third baseman, but his OBP was below both the league average and the average third baseman. Detroit is still committed to its former top prospect, but a poor first half could lead Avila to seek an upgrade on the trade market this summer.

In Upton and J.D. Martinez, the Tigers have one of the more powerful corner-outfield duos in all of Major League Baseball, but the center field platoon of Maybin and Gose comes with some question marks. Both players have the speed to cover plenty of ground but rate poorly in the eyes of defensive metrics (which Gose bizarrely called a “scam” designed to “make money” this spring rather than examine his game for areas of potential improvement). There are offensive questions about the pair, as well; Gose fanned at a 27 percent clip in each of the past two seasons, and neither player has particularly strong career marks with the bat, even when holding the platoon advantage. In fact, Maybin’s career numbers versus lefties are worse than his numbers against right-handed pitching (though that trend reversed last year in Atlanta).

From a longer-term perspective, the larger question in the outfield may be whether the team is able to retain Martinez beyond his remaining two years of control. The extension for Martinez, who has quickly risen to stardom in Detroit, didn’t extend club control and rather only locked in the price tags on his remaining arbitration seasons. As I examined at the time Martinez acknowledged ongoing extension talks, the Tigers already have more than $122MM committed to the 2018 payroll, $105MM committed in 2019 and $78MM committed in 2020. Those numbers, of course, would decline if Upton were to exercise the opt-out provision in his contract, but there’s no firm way of knowing he’ll do so. A healthy Upton almost certainly will, but injuries or an unexpected decline in performance could alter the outcome.

Tacking on an extra $18-20MM per season for a Martinez extension (and that’s estimating on the conservative end of a theoretical AAV for an extension) to each of those seasons significantly limits the maneuverability to fill out a competitive roster with useful pieces. Were Upton’s deal guaranteed to be coming off the books, a Martinez extension wouldn’t be quite so treacherous. However, this is this is one situation that highlights the fact that opt-outs carry risk not only in the form of a declining or injured player opting in (and thus becoming overpaid) but also in the form of making the waters of long-term planning difficult to navigate.

Deal of Note

Mark Lowe’s dominant numbers with the Mariners made the minor league deal he signed last offseason into one of the most notable bargain pickups of the year and ultimately turned him into a trade chip for the M’s in July. The Tigers rewarded Lowe’s age-32 renaissance with a two-year, $11MM contract, demonstrating that they were undeterred by his lesser numbers with the Blue Jays and convinced that he could serve as a quality ‘pen piece through 2017.

While there’s certainly reason to believe that’s the case — Lowe’s velocity was back at its 2009-11 levels and he showed excellent control — we saw similar resurgences rewarded with markedly smaller contracts later in the offseason. Players that sign early, especially relievers, will almost always come out better than those who wait to sign into the new year, but the fact that rebounds from Joe Blanton and the much younger Trevor Cahill resulted in one-year deals worth less than $5MM raises the question of whether the Tigers would’ve been better served to wait out the relief market a bit. Of course, there was also at least one far more lavish expenditure on a revitalized bullpen arm (tip of the cap to Ryan Madson), and if Lowe continues his excellence, the Tigers won’t mind having paid at a higher rate.

Overview

Avila’s first offseason at the helm looked fairly similar to some of the recent offseasons under the Dombrowski-led Tigers: a number of high-priced, long-term expenditures designed to win in the present despite a considerable amount of long-term risk. Eventually, the Tigers are going to be faced with an aged roster of overpaid former stars, as it’s just not likely that Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Jordan Zimmermann, etc. will continue to be productive into their mid-to-late 30s. That could be compounded if the club ultimately inks Martinez to a lengthier extension.

It’s been written for years (including here) that that long-term ledger could lead to dark days in Detroit, but those days haven’t yet arrived. Though they have question marks in the rotation and at a few spots on the diamond, the Tigers have what looks to be an improved bullpen as well as a strong lineup capable of compensating for some of the questions that permeate the starting staff. And, of course, if the Tigers feel they need rotation reinforcement come summer, Ilitch will almost certainly green-light a win-now approach for Avila and his staff in July. I wouldn’t call Detroit the division favorite, but the AL Central should be a tightly contested bunch this year, and the Tigers look poised to return to the midst of the fray after a rare sell-off last July.

Let’s turn this one over to the audience with a poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How would you grade the Tigers' offseason?

  • B 49% (2,031)
  • A 33% (1,362)
  • C 13% (550)
  • F 3% (111)
  • D 2% (95)

Total votes: 4,149


Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By | at March 18, 2016 7:00am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Cubs added tons of veteran talent to an already-strong team, mostly through free agency.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, it was no secret that the Cubs had a middle infield surplus with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Starlin Castro.  With four years and $38MM remaining on his contract, Castro was the most likely to go.  The Yankees were a natural match, having shown interest in Castro during the summer.  As Yankees GM Brian Cashman told John Harper of the New York Daily News, the Cubs initially asked for outfielder Brett Gardner and were rebuffed.  Then, after a month of the Cubs pestering Cashman for swingman Adam Warren, the Yankees gave in and the trade agreement was reached.  Still, the Castro trade was delayed for a few days, as the Cubs were simultaneously attempting to sign Ben Zobrist as a free agent.

The Cubs achieved Theo Epstein’s “multiple-bank shot,” moving on from Castro after six big league seasons.  I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization.  Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs went with veteran Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May.  Zobrist served as Joe Maddon‘s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after establishing himself in the Majors with the Rays.  While Zobrist may not be the defensive asset he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player.  The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14MM a year, despite the riskiness of signing a player through age 38.  He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s deal is covered.  The Cubs can rest assured that competition was stiff for Zobrist, with the Mets and Giants willing to go to $60MM and the Nationals making a play.

With the addition of Warren, the Cubs proved that Castro did indeed have mild positive trade value despite the middle infielder’s contract and up-and-down career.  In Warren, the Cubs received a useful pitcher who is under club control for three years.  The 28-year-old can serve as an effective reliever or credible fifth starter depending on the Cubs’ needs.

The Cubs’ primary offseason need was to add an impact starting pitcher.  Though Epstein later told WEEI the Cubs were “very interested” in the best available option, free agent David Price, the Cubs’ president also admitted, “We ended up a distant third” in the bidding.  Shortly after Price’s agreement with the Red Sox, the Cubs reached an agreement 37-year-old veteran starter John Lackey on a two-year deal.  Epstein had previously signed Lackey as Red Sox GM six years prior.  As Epstein explained in that same WEEI interview, “There’s risk inherent in longer pitching contracts, and having a pitcher the caliber of John Lackey on a two-year deal was a no-brainer for us.”  I thought Lackey would command a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying offer attached, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

By the Winter Meetings, the Cubs had made significant improvements to an already-strong club, without surrendering prospects or adding a major financial burden (at least for a big-market team).  Soon, it became apparent the Cubs’ biggest move was yet to come.  They were again tangling with the Cardinals and Nationals for a free agent: Jason Heyward.  We’ll have more on the Heyward signing in the Deal Of Note section.

With the Cubs adding Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward,  the rich got richer.  Heyward was penciled in at a new position, center field, since Dexter Fowler was expected to sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Cubs already had Jorge Soler as the right field incumbent.  It appears that the Cubs kicked around a lot of trade possibilities, likely involving Soler and Baez.  Meanwhile, the team quietly re-added Trevor Cahill on a one-year deal.  Cahill turned down a more definitive rotation offer from the Pirates to stay with the Cubs, even though he seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen.  Cahill’s contract calls for incentives both for starts and relief appearances.  The 28-year-old first joined the Cubs in August on a minor league deal.  He pitched for the big league club in September and after a dominant month out of the pen became a key late-inning reliever in the playoffs.  The signing gives the Cubs four potential swingmen, along with Warren, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood.

As February came to a close, the Cubs’ offseason seemed to have reached a successful conclusion, as they were down to tinkering with free agents on minor league deals.  Then, in the course of a few hours, Epstein stunningly completed another multiple-bank shot.  First, news broke that outfielder Chris Coghlan, whose presence on the Cubs’ roster was already somewhat redundant, had been traded to Oakland for Aaron Brooks.  This trade seemed mostly about clearing Coghlan’s $4.8MM salary.  Coghlan, a free agent after 2016, raked right-handed pitching with a .277/.354/.478 line from 2014-15.  Brooks, meanwhile, will soon turn 26 and has yet to experience big league success.  He’s got an interesting change-up and could develop into a useful pitcher, but it was a light return for Coghlan.

Shortly after the Coghlan trade, the Cubs announced that center fielder Dexter Fowler had re-signed on a one-year deal.  Although media reports suggested Fowler had a multiyear agreement in place with the Orioles, Fowler, his agent, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette later said that was never the case.  Instead, Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal.  While it’s true the Cubs sacrificed another potential draft pick, Fowler basically fell into their laps.  Heyward is now penciled in at his natural right field position, Fowler returns in center, and the Cubs have a pair of highly-regarded young players in Soler and Kyle Schwarber in left field.

Continued analysis after the break …

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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By | at March 14, 2016 6:04pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Giants failed to defend their World Series crown with an 84-win season in 2015, but added some significant pieces to a still-excellent core this winter.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

An offseason can be approached in many ways. Organizations can hunt for value, explore creative trades, work the waiver wire, find options from within, and look to create competition with minor league signings.

But the most straightforward way for a contender to fill holes is through free agency, and the Giants did exactly that this winter. GM Bobby Evans and his front office entered the offseason with a clear need in the rotation — with Tim Hudson retiring, mid-season acquisition Mike Leake departing, and Tim Lincecum finally ending his fascinating tenure with the club (barring a late surprise) — along with an arguable need in the outfield. San Francisco took a direct route to addressing those areas, adding three high-priced players on the open market.

Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija finished their 2015 seasons with some uncertainty, and were among the most variable major free agents, but still commanded big dollars from San Francisco. The former was a typical ace, for the most part, with the Reds. But some questions about his health cropped up, and he wasn’t quite himself after being traded to the Royals, posting a 4.76 ERA in his final 13 regular season starts and then mixing gems and duds in the postseason. His contract looks to be something of a compromise. There’s a fair share of risk, but Cueto would be a bargain if he pitches like the front-of-the-rotation starter he’s long been, as the team only owes him $46MM over the two seasons before his opt-out applies.

Mar 9, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher <a rel=Samardzija, meanwhile, never settled in with the White Sox, following up his breakout 2014 with a 4.96 ERA campaign. His strikeouts and groundballs fell off a cliff, to 6.9 K/9 and a 39.0% GB%, though he maintained his velocity. The 31-year-old has a solid history of health and innings, though, having racked up over 200 frames in each of the last three years. And he’s long been a favorite among scouts, who love his big frame and bulldog demeanor. San Francisco doesn’t need Samardzija to return to his career ceiling to justify the contract, though he’ll obviously be expected to provide at least a large volume of solid, mid-rotation innings over the next several campaigns.

If those two pitchers were risks of sorts, then there’s an argument to be made that the Giants took an even greater leap of faith with Denard Span, who’ll bump Angel Pagan into left field and relegate Gregor Blanco to his typically active fourth outfielder role. The depth was obviously welcome, but Span has endured recent core muscle and hip surgeries. If he can return to full health, the deal could well be a coup, as Span’s high-contact bat makes for a nice fit at the top of the lineup. He’ll also provide value on the bases and is generally well-regarded defensively, though he rated poorly when he was on the field last year.

Beyond that, it was a largely uneventful winter from an acquisition standpoint. Among the minor league free agents added, only Kyle Blanks looks to have much of a chance of breaking camp on the 25-man roster; if he can stay healthy — a big if — then he’d add to the outfield depth and provide a power right-handed bat off the bench. Otherwise, the Giants focused on bringing in a host of infielders to provide some options if a need arises, but it would probably rate as a disappointment if any are required to play much in the majors this season.

Questions Remaining

On paper, the Giants simply filled the needs they had entering the winter. Really, though, it was and is a fair bit more complicated. While Cueto and Samardzija will slot in behind ace Madison Bumgarner, both Jake Peavy and Matt Cain have a lot to prove. Peavy provided a 3.58 ERA last year, but he’s nearly 35 and only made 19 starts due to back issues. Meawhile, ERA estimators were less impressed with his output (3.87 FIP/4.47 xFIP/4.33 SIERA). There’s even more uncertainty with Cain, who hasn’t reached 100 innings in either of the last two years and owns a 4.37 ERA dating back to the start of 2013. Given those questions, as well as those facing Cueto and Samardzija, there was perhaps an argument to be made that the club should have preferred the younger and perhaps safer option of bringing back Mike Leake, who ultimately landed with the Cardinals.

There are options behind that group, to be sure. The organization is said to be high on some of its young arms, and just added a bevy of pitchers to the 40-man over the winter, including Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick, Ian Gardeck, Adalberto Mejia, Steven Okert, Jake Smith, and Chris Stratton. And it’s easy to forget that Chris Heston was a revelation early in 2015, even spinning a no-hitter, before he faded late. Several of those arms could be called upon if a rotation need arises, and the club will hope to see some strides made as it looks ahead to replacing Peavy when he returns to free agency after the season.

Ultimately, that bunch of arms also helps to explain why the Giants were inactive on the reliever front this winter. Josh Osich will step into shoes of retiree Jeremy Affeldt after a strong (albeit BABIP-aided) debut season, and he’ll pair with the reliable Javier Lopez to form a southpaw duo. Hunter Strickland could eventually supplant Santiago Casilla as the closer, and of course Sergio Romo will group with those two righties in the late innings. George Kontos is another fixture, though he outperformed his peripherals rather notably in 2015.

It’s worth looking more closely at the position player side of things as well. The Giants turned down a seemingly reasonable $5.5MM option over Nori Aoki, who missed time with a concussion last year, and also turned down a chance to retain Marlon Byrd for $8MM (after making sure his option didn’t vest down the stretch). There was certainly some cause to stick with Aoki for such a limited commitment, even if another player was added. Pagan’s health and performance remain to be seen, and the typical workhorse Hunter Pence only managed a third of a season while dealing with his own injury issues.

Ultimately, it seems, the Giants preferred to explore a bigger upgrade via free agency. There were conflicting reports as to whether top-tier options like Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes were ever in play. Reports were more clear that the club was one of many to push to sign Ben Zobrist, who is said to have preferred to play second base. The team also looked at Ian Desmond as an option to play in the outfield while providing infield depth. Going with Span ultimately makes sense, as he provides a table-setting offensive presence and is obviously capable of playing center, but he adds to the list of health situations to watch. It bears noting, too, that in addition to the players discussed above, the club has fairly well-regarded young options in Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson. Both will likely return to Triple-A, where they played well enough last year to earn some MLB time late in the season.

The idea of adding options on the dirt certainly seemed to have some appeal, at least as a secondary consideration, despite the fact that the Giants’ infield was perhaps the best overall unit in the game last year. Starting with the outstanding Buster Posey behind the dish (with intriguing young #2 Andrew Susac), San Francisco received nothing but excellence all the way around the horn in 2015. Brandon Crawford turned into one of the game’s best shortstops (more on him below) and Brandon Belt had a typically strong campaign (though he dealt with concussion issues and meniscus surgery), while relative newcomers Joe Panik and Matt Duffy both racked up 4+ WAR. In spite of that group’s inspiring effort and evident promise, Panik dealt with back issues late in the year — though he told me on the MLBTR Podcast that he doesn’t expect to be limited moving forward — and Duffy still only has one year of major league productivity on his ledger.

Indeed, after trying for Zobrist and Desmond, San Francisco reportedly dabbled in the market for pure infielders as well. Both Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe were said to be under consideration, though it never seemed as if the Giants were willing to make much of a commitment to add either veteran. Instead the club settled on some less established minor league free agents, with players like Conor Gillaspie, Grant Green, Ramiro Pena, and former top prospect Hak-Ju Lee brought in over the winter.

Deal Of Note

The Giants are among the more loyal teams in the game when it comes to locking up their own established players, and Crawford became the latest player to sign on for the long haul back in November. His six-year deal buys out four would-be free agent campaigns and will keep him in San Francisco through his age-34 season. (He also picks up full no-trade protection in the pact.)

Aug 21, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Francisco Giants shortstop <a rel=

Crawford is a classic Giants success story, as he has rewarded the organization’s faith with steadily increasing offensive output. Always a quality defender, Crawford not only has improved with the glove but has gone from a below-average hitter, to an average one, to a surprising power threat. While he still isn’t great in the on-base department, Crawford put up an ISO north of .200 last year while launching 21 long balls. The overall package added up to 4.7 fWAR and 5.6 rWAR in 2015.

Even if Crawford can’t quite maintain that level of production, he seems like a good bet to profile as a steady three to four-win performer going forward. He doesn’t have drastic platoon splits over his career, though much of his recent outburst came against right-handed pitching. And Crawford’s fielding prowess seems to set a nice floor. There’s still some risk, of course, but Crawford has been durable and even the $15MM salary promised over the four free agent seasons covered in the deal doesn’t set a terribly high bar for him to meet to make good on the contract.

While the additions of Cueto and Samardzija were more sexy, this contract best encapsulates the organization’s philosophy and helps to explain its rather remarkable recent run of success. Players such as Panik and Duffy could well follow Crawford — a fourth-round pick who never generated a ton of buzz as a prospect — as relatively unheralded draft-and-development success stories. And Crawford’s deal could be a precursor for a long-term pact with Belt, another mid-round draft pick who shares a service class with the shortstop. San Francisco has suggested continued interest in exploring an extension with him after agreeing to avoid arbitration this year for $6.2MM. (For those interested in further reading on the subject, Steve Adams took a stab at valuing a Belt extension in a recent MLBTR mailbag.)

Overview

Despite the heavy spending, the Giants will face a tough road to the postseason. The division-rival Dodgers are still loaded with talent, while the Diamondbacks hope to make a push as well. And the N.L. Wild Card competition could be fierce, as the top two or three clubs in the other divisions all look like strong contenders.

While it’s easy to see plenty of upside in the San Francisco roster, there’s still plenty of uncertainty for veteran skipper Bruce Bochy to manage. That includes the new rotation additions, the team’s oft-injured outfield mix, as well as the still relatively untested (but quite promising) group of infielders.

Looking down the line a bit, it’ll also be fascinating to see whether the organization can prepare to graduate some arms and outfielders to slot in alongside the players already in place at the major league level. There’s already well over $100MM on the books for 2017 and 2018, so another big outlay in next year’s market may not be in the offing if too many holes open up. Then again, it’s never wise to count out this particular organization when it comes to finding diamonds in the rough.

So, how would you grade the Giants’ offseason? (link to poll for mobile app users)

How would you grade the Giants' offseason?

  • B 46% (2,260)
  • A 37% (1,796)
  • C 12% (568)
  • F 3% (158)
  • D 3% (138)

Total votes: 4,920

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals San Francisco Giants

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

By | at March 11, 2016 2:05pm CDT

Six months after a surprise pursuit of a Wild Card spot that lasted until the final weekend of the 2015 season, the Twins enter Spring Training with heightened expectations as the long-anticipated arrival of many prospects is now upon Minneapolis.

Major League Signings

  • Byung Ho Park, 1B/DH: Four years, $12MM (plus $12.85MM posting fee)

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, the Twins’ most glaring need was behind the plate. Kurt Suzuki‘s initial one-year deal with the club was a solid enough short-term investment at the time, but rather than flip Suzuki at the trade deadline in 2014, the Twins rewarded a BABIP-fueled first half surge with a two-year, $12MM extension. Since that time, Suzuki’s offense has returned to its normal levels, as he’s batted just .242/.295/.327 with six homers in 634 plate appearances. That production is about 30 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter (70 wRC+), and it’s particularly problematic given Suzuki’s questionable defensive skills. Suzuki halted just 15 percent of attempted base-stealers last season, and he rated as the game’s fifth-worst defensive catcher in combining his framing, blocking and throwing efforts, per Baseball Prospectus’ Adjusted Fielding Runs Above Average.

John Ryan Murphy

Despite a strong farm, the Twins lacked an MLB-ready catching prospect, and they heightened the need for catching help by trading last year’s primary backup, Chris Herrmann, to the Diamondbacks. With a dearth of catching talent and a glut of MLB-ready outfielders, the Twins parted with former first-round pick Aaron Hicks in order to land a controllable young backstop in the form of John Ryan Murphy (pictured left).

Hicks, a rangy switch-hitting outfielder with a huge arm but longstanding struggles against right-handed pitching, enjoyed his first full, productive season with the Twins last year, batting .256/.323/.398 with 11 homers and 13 steals. Surrendering four years of Hicks was probably difficult, but the Twins obtained a younger catcher with five years of club control in return. Murphy hasn’t tapped into his full offensive potential just yet — or at least the Twins hope he hasn’t — but produced a solid .277/.327/.406 batting line in 172 PAs last season. In his brief MLB career, Murphy has caught 28 percent of opposing thieves and rated as roughly average in terms of pitch framing and pitch blocking, so he represents a defensive upgrade over Suzuki. He’ll probably be eased in behind the plate, but Suzuki’s vesting option triggers at 485 PAs, so it’s in the Twins’ interest to slowly increase Murphy’s playing time. While Suzuki has only averaged 491 PAs over the past two seasons, the Twins would probably prefer to avoid a Marlon Byrd-esque situation, in which the Giants sat Byrd over the season’s final weekend, leaving him just six PAs shy of his option vesting and creating an uncomfortable situation all around.

Twins executives, coaches and players will emphatically state that there’s no replacing Torii Hunter’s impact on the clubhouse, but the front office did add what it hopes will be a more productive right-handed bat by making a surprise play for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. The 28-year-old Park has blasted 105 home runs over the past two seasons with the KBO’s Nexen Heroes, and while it’d be foolish to expect that he will replicate the .343/.436/.714 batting line and 53 homers he contributed in his final KBO campaign, the Twins would probably consider it a disappointment if he didn’t exceed Hunter’s .240/.293/.409 line and 22 home runs.

Byung Ho Park

With Park in the fold, many pundits expected the Twins to deal Trevor Plouffe, opening third base for Miguel Sano and clearing the DH spot for Park. Insteadof trading Plouffe, though, the Twins shifted Sano to right field, which was vacated by the Hicks swap. The Twins, on paper, look to have plenty of right-handed pop, but it remains to be seen how Sano can handle his time in the outfield from a defensive standpoint.

The rest of the Twins’ offseason was largely uneventful. While there was long talk of adding a left-handed reliever, either via free agency or trade, the Twins instead added Fernando Abad on a minor league deal. Another lefty option was added via waivers when the team picked up Minnesota native Mike Strong from the Brewers.

Minnesota will turn to its farm system for the rest of the needs it would like to see addressed. In an ideal world, Byron Buxton will see a full season in center field, Tyler Duffey will repeat his late-season success, Jose Berrios will eventually surface in the Majors and push for a rotation spot, and utilityman-turned-starter Eduardo Escobar will thrive in a season as the new everyday shortstop.

Questions Remaining

That final paragraph of the preceding section sounds nice and rosy for the Twins, but it’s unlikely that each of those outcomes will come to be. Buxton floundered in his initial taste of big league action. Optimists, though, will note that he has endured early struggles upon each promotion to a new level. Buxton did rake at a .305/.367/.500 clip in 327 Triple-A PAs last season, so he has little left to prove in the minors.

While catcher was the club’s biggest offseason need, there’s been no greater revolving door in the Twins organization than shortstop over the past decade, as evidenced by the fact that Escobar will become Minnesota’s 10th Opening Day shortstop in 11 seasons. (Trivia: who was the only repeat starter? If you answered Pedro Florimon, you’re correct! You also probably cheated.) The 27-year-old Escobar has delivered consecutive seasons of slightly above-average production at the plate but hasn’t topped 465 PAs. If he falters, 2015 Opening Day starter Danny Santana, top prospect Jorge Polanco and utilityman Eduardo Nunez represent alternatives.

The Twins’ rotation was their primary downfall during the 2011-14 stretch of last-place finishes, but the club actually has some depth at in its starting staff now. Right-handers Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are locks for the rotation, and while none of the three will be mistaken for a No. 1 type of starter, each is a reasonable mid-rotation option. Hughes and Santana have displayed flashes of greater performance in their respective 2014 and 2013 seasons. Health for Hughes will be crucial, as the right-hander lost 1.4 mph off his heater from 2014 to 2015 and eventually missed a month with lower back inflammation. The aforementioned Duffey isn’t quite a lock for a spot, but manager Paul Molitor strongly implied that he’ll open the year on the starting staff. Long projected as a back-end starter, Duffey instead burst onto the scene with 58 innings of 3.10 ERA ball with a 3.24 FIP and 3.64 xFIP. His 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 49.7 percent ground-ball rate all impressed as well.

The biggest rotation question for the Twins is what to do with Ricky Nolasco. The right-hander is guaranteed $25MM through 2017 but has been a bust thus far, due partially to injuries. The Twins showed last spring that they weren’t afraid to put a fairly sizable contract in the ‘pen when they initially tabbed Mike Pelfrey for relief work, but a $12MM long reliever isn’t ideal, and recent comments from Nolasco’s agent suggest that such a decision could lead to drama.

Trevor May seems likely to return to a setup role, though there’s a case that he should be in the rotation. He was, admittedly, excellent in 31 1/3 relief innings last season, logging a 2.87 ERA with a 37-to-8 K/BB ratio. However, he also posted a 4.37 ERA, 3.25 FIP and 3.93 xFIP with a 77-to-18 K/BB ratio across 15 starts (80 1/3 innings) out of the rotation to begin the year. The out-of-options Milone, meanwhile, has a notable $4.5MM salary after avoiding arbitration this winter and is the sole lefty in the mix. Coming off a 3.92 ERA of his own in 128 2/3 innings, he too has staked a claim to a rotation spot. And despite all of the aforementioned options, Berrios has the highest ceiling of any option the Twins have, earning a top-30 ranking on the top 100 lists of Baseball Prospectus (17), MLB.com (19), ESPN (26) and Baseball America (28). He’s probably bound for Triple-A, though, which figures to buy the Twins another year of control down the line, even if he debuts later in the season.

The bullpen will be anchored by Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and (probably) May. That trio figures to give the Twins three solid late-inning arms, but the Twins could’ve added extra relief help. Minnesota’s system is loaded with power arms in the form of righties Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois and Jake Reed, but incumbent MLB options like Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin and J.R. Graham don’t inspire over-the-top confidence. Ryan Pressly was enjoying a sound season before a lat injury ended his 2015 campaign, so he’ll be back in the mix as well. But, left-handed options on the 40-man roster are few and far between. Abad figures to make the club and could be joined in the ‘pen by starter-turned-reliever Taylor Rogers, but dealing for a more proven arm like Milwaukee’s Will Smith or signing a veteran on a one-year deal to provide more stability certainly carried some merit.

It’s also worth noting that the Twins made a curious decision last offseason (in my mind, anyhow) to leave lefty Sean Gilmartin unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft while the likes of Aaron Thompson, Chris Herrmann and Chris Parmelee remained on the 40-man roster. Selected in the Rule 5 by the Mets, Gilmartin went on to enjoy an excellent rookie season in their bullpen and would be a welcome addition to the Twins’ current relief corps.

Last but not least, the Twins will face decisions on some players that once looked like potential core pieces. Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia are both out of options, and neither has developed into the regular that the Twins had hoped. Santana will presumably enter the season as the club’s backup center fielder (if not the starter, should it be deemed that Buxton needs more Triple-A time), but at a certain point, he’ll have to produce more than the woeful .215/.241/.291 line to which he struggled last year. Arcia, meanwhile, has already displayed 20-homer pop in the Majors, but he’s a poor defender who is limited to the outfield corners and posted a surprisingly meek .199/.257/.372 line at Triple-A last season. With Sano and Eddie Rosario entrenched in the outfield corners, Arcia is now looking for a bench spot, at best, but he could be exposed to waivers late in spring. The hard-throwing Tonkin also finds himself in the out-of-options boat, and he’ll need to earn a bullpen spot this spring to avoid that same waiver fate.

Deal of Note

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I joked earlier this winter that if submissions for our Free Agent Prediction Contest had locked prior to the announcement of the Twins winning the bidding on Park, well under one percent of participants would’ve pegged the Twins as his landing spot. Minnesota’s $12.85MM posting fee topped a pair of clubs that reportedly exceeded $11MM with their bids, though, leaving the club with a month to negotiate.

The Pirates signed Park’s former teammate, Jung Ho Kang, for four years and $11MM after submitting a winning bid of $5MM. That the Twins were able to lock up Park for just $1MM more than Kang despite the fact that their bid was more than 2.5 times greater than Kang’s winning bid suggests that the team landed something of a bargain. A yearly investment of $3MM (or $6MM, if you prefer to pro-rate the posting fee) is a virtually negligible sum in today’s contractual landscape, and Park can essentially justify that investment simply by checking in above replacement level. Landing a potentially above-average everyday bat for the same price that other clubs dedicated to setup men (Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria) and fourth starters (Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada) over a shorter term looks like a win, on paper.

Overview

The Twins made a pair of potentially impactful moves in the offseason’s early stages but were largely inactive in the subsequent four months. The fate of the 2016 iteration of the team will be largely decided by the readiness of a crop of emergent talent whose assembly has been nearly half a decade in the making. Few would call the Twins favorites in the American League Central, but there’s enough talent on the roster to play meaningful games for a second consecutive September. Whether that culminates with another miss or the team’s first postseason berth since 2010 will be determined by whether Sano, Duffey and Rosario can repeat their 2015 rookie success and whether some combination of Buxton, Berrios, Park and the team’s collection of flamethrowing relief prospects can solidify themselves as Major Leaguers. Improved second-half results from Brian Dozier or any kind of rebound from former superstar Joe Mauer would further boost the team’s hopes, but more than anything, the Twins have invested in youth to lead the way. In that regard, the team’s fairly quiet offseason was the product of more than four years of rebuilding.

With that long-winded rundown out of the way, it’s your turn to grade on Minnesota’s offseason (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

How would you grade the Twins' offseason?

  • C 43% (1,817)
  • B 30% (1,243)
  • D 17% (693)
  • F 6% (260)
  • A 4% (168)

Total votes: 4,181

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at March 10, 2016 12:50pm CDT

David Stearns took the Brewers’ GM job in September and acted decisively to continue the organization’s rebuilding plan. The team won’t be very good in 2016, but its future suddenly looks bright.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

This time last year, the Brewers were in a holding pattern. Their core was getting older and more expensive, and they were coming off an 82-80 2014 season and a second-half collapse. But their decent collection of veteran talent (Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, and so on) and weak farm system meant that initiating a rebuilding process right away might have been more painful than just hoping for the team to be competitive in the short term and waiting to rebuild.

Their 2014-15 offseason was, accordingly, a tepid one. They traded Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada, but actually returned a veteran (Adam Lind) rather than young talent in the Estrada trade and generally didn’t make any dynamic moves to change the direction of their franchise.

That changed quickly when the 2015 season began and the Brewers found themselves in a 5-18 hole by May 1. The terrible start perhaps provided the organization with clarity it needed, and the team quickly replaced manager Ron Roenicke with Craig Counsell and began shipping out veterans (including Gomez, Mike Fiers, Gerardo Parra, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Broxton and Neal Cotts). They also hired the youthful David Stearns (who recently appeared on the MLBTR Podcast) to be their new GM, with Doug Melvin moving into an advisory role.

Stearns had already been part of one aggressive rebuilding project as assistant GM of the Astros, and at least at this early point, it looks like he at least has the fortitude to lead one in Milwaukee. His first offseason was a busy one, as he continued dealing veterans and adding to an increasingly impressive base of young talent while reshaping the organization to fit his vision.

It’s hard to tell what the Brewers’ Opening Day roster might look like. Holdovers Lucroy, Braun and Scooter Gennett will occupy familiar spots, but the rest of the lineup is in flux. First base will likely be occupied, at least in part, by Chris Carter, the only big-league free agent the Brewers signed this winter. Carter has tremendous raw power but strikes out constantly and is a defensive liability. He’s also 29 and doesn’t seem likely to age well. He should, however, bat closer to .220 or .230 than the .199 he hit last year. If he can get his average any higher than that, he might be a tempting trade-deadline acquisition for a contender. The Brewers could also take him to arbitration and keep him through 2018 if he’s successful. Given Carter’s power and the Brewers’ ability to control him beyond 2016, $2.5MM seems like a very reasonable price to have paid, particularly with the Orioles paying more than twice as much for Pedro Alvarez, who is in many ways a similar player.

Carter replaces Adam Lind and (to a lesser extent) Jason Rogers, who both headed elsewhere in trades. For one year of Lind, the Brewers got a trio of very young arms in Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki and Freddy Peralta. None of them have yet turned 20, but all have posted impressive peripheral numbers in the very low minors. None are yet highly rated, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see one of them emerge as a serious prospect within a year or two. For Rogers, they got Keon Broxton (a young outfielder who lacks offensive upside but has blazing speed, strong defensive ability and a fresh service-time clock) and Trey Supak, a 2014 second-round pick who will join Herrera, Missaki and Peralta among the Brewers’ growing group of interesting lottery-ticket arms.

2015 shortstop Jean Segura is also gone after a clever trade to the Diamondbacks. For their willingness to eat $5.5MM of the remaining contract of veteran infielder Aaron Hill (who Counsell says will get the first shot at the Brewers’ open third base job), the Brewers arguably got not only the best current big-leaguer in the deal (Chase Anderson, a fourth starter type who should help Milwaukee’s rotation get through the team’s rebuilding period) but also the highest-upside player (infielder Isan Diaz, who’s far from the Majors but hit brilliantly for both average and power last year as a 19-year-old in the Pioneer League). Segura, meanwhile, has not developed since his 2013 breakout, and his 93 strikeouts and 13 walks in 2015 suggest he has plenty of improving to do if he’s going to be an asset. The Brewers also gave up starting pitcher Tyler Wagner, who posted a good ERA last season at Double-A Biloxi but was somewhat old for the level and was not particularly impressive, either in terms of his stuff or his results, in a brief trial in the big leagues. Wagner’s ability to get ground balls could lead to a career as a back-of-the-rotation type in the Majors, and Segura is young and could perhaps turn his career around, but it doesn’t look like the Brewers gave up much.

Stearns also made two other trades involving potential utility infielders. First, he sent pitcher and 2014 third-round pick Cy Sneed to Houston for Jonathan Villar. Sneed hasn’t yet pitched at Double-A, although his numbers were promising in his first pro season. Villar, meanwhile, has never really hit much (his .284 average in a small sample in the big leagues in 2015 notwithstanding). He runs the bases well and can play multiple positions, though, and he has five years of service time remaining before free agency. The deal was Stearns’ only trade of a minor-leaguer for a big-leaguer this offseason and appears to run counter to much of what the Brewers tried to achieve this offseason, although that isn’t necessarily a big deal — Sneed is less than two years younger than Villar and isn’t a top prospect.

Stearns then shipped 2B/SS Luis Sardinas to Seattle. Sardinas had been in the Brewers organization for less than a year and is still just 22, but his recent track record (and especially his .282/.319/.359 line last season at hitter-friendly Triple-A Colorado Springs) raises questions about whether he’ll hit even as well as Villar currently does. In return, the Brewers received Ramon Flores, a young left-handed hitter with some on-base ability and offensive upside who could become a fourth outfielder. He could get that chance as soon as this year, since he’s out of options and is fully recovered from an ankle injury he suffered last August.

Questions Remaining

There are many, which isn’t surprising, given that the Brewers don’t figure to contend this year. Villar seems likely to win the shortstop job, but he could move to second once top prospect Orlando Arcia is promoted. That could bump default second baseman Gennett, who’s coming off a disappointing 2015 season, to the bench. At third, it’s hard to believe the Brewers will remain satisfied with Hill if he continues to perform as he has the last two seasons. If he falters, minor-league signee Will Middlebrooks or trade acquisition Garin Cecchini could take over; those players have been disappointing in recent years as well, but at least they’re younger. (Since none of those options look particularly inspiring, it might have been interesting to see the Brewers sign free agent third baseman David Freese, who could help out at the position and potentially return a prospect at the deadline.)

Left field and right field appear set with Braun and Domingo Santana, but what will happen in center is unclear. Brett Phillips, who was part of the Carlos Gomez trade package along with Santana, could be the long-term answer at the position. He has limited experience in the high minors (and is currently dealing with an oblique strain), however, so he’s unlikely to start the season in the bigs. That leaves a variety of potential center field options to start the season, including Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Broxton and perhaps Shane Peterson or Flores. One of the more interesting possibilities is Rymer Liriano, a former top prospect the Brewers acquired in a minor deal in January after the Padres designated him for assignment. Liriano hasn’t performed to expectations since he missed the 2013 season due to an elbow injury, but he’s still just 24, appears to have a bit of offensive ability and hit fairly well last year, albeit in a hitter-friendly environment at Triple-A El Paso. Getting Liriano for minor-league reliever Trevor Seidenberger could prove to be a small coup for the Brewers.

The Brewers’ rotation, in contrast, is relatively set, with Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, Matt Garza and Anderson. (Zach Davies, one of last year’s trade acquisitions, did enough down the stretch to warrant consideration for a rotation spot, but could end up at Triple-A unless the Brewers clear space by, say, unloading a portion of Garza’s contract in a deal.) There will be competition in the bullpen, though, including at the closer spot. In November, the Brewers sent veteran fireman Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit for infielder Javier Betancourt and a player to be named, later revealed to be journeyman catcher Manny Pina. Betancourt is a tough player to evaluate — he didn’t hit much in 2015, but some of that is likely due to the fact that he was barely 20 and playing against older competition in the Florida State League. He could eventually become an everyday second baseman, but he doesn’t figure to contribute this season.

In K-Rod’s absence, Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith will battle for the closer spot. There will be competition for bullpen spots elsewhere, but Michael Blazek and Corey Knebel appear likely to win jobs after having solid 2015 seasons.

In the meantime, the Brewers have only a handful of veterans left who might be tradable. Chief among them is Lucroy, whose terrific contract (which contains a cheap 2017 option) and strong track record make him a significant asset despite a disappointing and injury-shortened 2015 season. It’s still possible the Brewers could deal him before they break camp, and the timing of such a deal might make sense. Lucroy is now catching in Spring Training games, so any interested teams can confirm he’s healthy, and some teams might be slightly reluctant to trade for a starting catcher once a season has begun. (Lucroy has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams, although given his recent comments about preferring to play for a winning team, that might not be an obstacle.)

Braun could eventually be dealt, too, although the Brewers might have to pay some of the $95MM remaining on his contract. Now might not be right time to trade him, since had back surgery in October, but if he gets off to a good start this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the market this summer. Relievers like Jeffress, Tyler Thornburg and especially Smith could also attract interest, and Peralta could be a possibility as well if he pitches well for a few months.

Deal Of Note

USATSI_9128677_154513410_lowresThe offseason trade that netted the Brewers their most significant return was the deal that sent Khris Davis to Oakland for Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby. Davis has four years of control remaining and has significant raw power, belting 49 home runs in the past two seasons. He is, however, 28, and has obvious weaknesses, including generally weak on-base percentages and limited defensive value. It’s possible his increased walk total in only his second full season in the league last year indicates a promising future, but given his age, it’s more likely that the Brewers traded him somewhere near the peak of his value.

In return, they received Bubba Derby — a righty sixth-round pick from the 2015 draft who carved up short-season ball in his pro debut — and catcher Jacob Nottingham (pictured). Nottingham (who had already been traded once, going from Houston to Oakland in the Scott Kazmir deal) is currently the more valuable of the two pieces. He broke out in 2015 at Classes A and A+, posting a .316/.372/.505 line as a 20-year-old. If he can stick at catcher, his offensive ability could make him very valuable, although reports on his defense are mixed. Even if he has to move to another position, he has the chance to contribute, perhaps even as a first baseman if he can continue developing the power that helped him hit 17 home runs this season.

Overview

When Stearns arrived, the Brewers’ rebuild was already in progress, and he’s spent the offseason continuing what Melvin had already started. More than that, though, Stearns began to reconfigure the organization to suit his preferences. That was clear in his acquisition of former Astros players like Carter, Nottingham, Villar and minor-league signees Alex Presley and Jake Elmore, as well as Stearns’ plentiful waiver claims and Rule 5 selections this winter.

Time will tell how many of these acquisitions turn out to be important ones, but it’s clear that Stearns improved a farm system that was already getting better. In 2014, Baseball America ranked the Brewers’ farm system the second worst of any organization. This year, the Brewers ranked ninth best. That improvement is primarily due to prospects like Arcia, Phillips and Trent Clark, all of whom were acquired under Melvin.

Then again, most of Milwaukee’s best trade assets (like Gomez, who Melvin dealt to get a package that included Phillips) had already been dealt by the time Stearns arrived. Much of the talent Stearns had available to trade this offseason didn’t appear likely to return top-100-type prospects, so Stearns instead sought potential role players with a bit of upside (like Anderson, Liriano, Flores and Broxton) and interesting players from the low minors (like Diaz, Derby, Herrera, Misaki, Peralta and Supak). That approach wasn’t glamorous, but it seems likely to yield a couple competent complementary players in the short term, and in the long term, it wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of the very young players the Brewers acquired emerged as top prospects.

In the meantime, the Brewers will attempt to piece together which of their new players might be parts of their next competitive team. Given the talent they have on the way — with Arcia, Phillips, and righty Jorge Lopez all sticking in the big leagues this year or next and a raft of interesting players below them — they could become fun to watch reasonably quickly, even if it takes a few years for them to become competitive in a tough NL Central division.

Let’s turn it over to MLBTR readers with a poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How would you grade Milwaukee's offseason?

  • B 32% (1,151)
  • A 28% (1,000)
  • C 18% (630)
  • D 13% (463)
  • F 9% (310)

Total votes: 3,554


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

By | at March 9, 2016 9:41pm CDT

This is the fourth entry in the Offseason In Review series.  You can also read our Reds, Rockies and White Sox entries. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Indians saw longtime execs Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins depart to head up the Blue Jays’ baseball operations department, leaving the subsequently promoted president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff to fill out the roster around one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades

  • Acquired OF Collin Cowgill from Angels in exchange for cash considerations
  • Acquired RHP Dan Otero from Phillies in exchange for cash considerations

Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Josh Tomlin, SP: Two years, $5.5MM plus $3MM club option ($750K buyout)

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Unlike most clubs entering the offseason, Cleveland didn’t feel an overwhelming need to search for pitching, as the club has three top-tier starters under control for the foreseeable future in the form of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar (to say nothing of a high-ceiling fourth starter in Trevor Bauer and a pair of quality options for the fifth spot in Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson). Rather, the question was whether the club would deal from its potential pitching surplus to address other needs around the diamond. With room for upgrades at both infield corners and a pair of outfield spots, there were a number of routes that the Tribe could take to improve an offense that finished 11th in the American League in runs scored.

Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli was brought in to serve as an upgrade at first base, and he’ll provide the club with a strong glove there, pushing Carlos Santana to DH duty. Napoli didn’t hit much in Boston last season, but he batted .295/.396/.513 upon being acquired by the Rangers late in the year. The catcher-turned-first-baseman still crushed left-handed pitching last season, but at $7MM — a fairly notable sum that represents nearly 40 percent of the free-agent spending by the Indians — they’ll be expecting him to produce even against same-handed pitching.

The need across the diamond at third base was certainly more palpable than the need at first, and while the Indians waited awhile to address the position, the club’s late signing of Juan Uribe should serve as an upgrade. Though he’ll turn 37 later this month, Uribe continues to grade out well defensively at third base. While he might not yield the level of defensive value that a platoon of Jose Ramirez and Giovanny Urshela could have produced, Uribe should be average or better with the glove with a markedly superior bat. This past season, Uribe slashed .253/.320/.417 with 14 home runs in 397 plate appearances, thereby continuing a resurgence that began in 2013 with his age-34 campaign. Uribe almost certainly won’t return to his ways as a 20- to 25-homer threat, but a collective .281/.329/.432 batting line across three prior seasons suggests that there’s still life in his bat, and his personality should be a boon to the clubhouse.

Left-handed relief was perhaps the one area in which the Indians have some uncertainty on the pitching staff, and the front office added a number of veteran arms on minor league deals in the hopes of parlaying one or two into solid production. Lefties Joe Thatcher, Ross Detwiler and Tom Gorzelanny have all had success in the Majors within the past two seasons, and any could emerge as a complement to incumbent options like Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto. Alternatively, upper-level minor leaguers Shawn Morimando and Ryan Merritt could emerge as lefty relief candidates, and former fifth starter T.J. House remains on the 40-man roster (though he missed most of 2015 with shoulder injuries and struggled in a return to action in last year’s Arizona Fall League).

Questions Remaining

The outfield was already the Indians’ largest question mark heading into the offseason, and that uncertainty only became more pronounced with the news that Michael Brantley would require surgery to repair his ailing shoulder. However, despite a glaring need, the club’s only big league acquisition was veteran speedster Rajai Davis. While the fleet-footed Davis remained a productive player throughout his two most recent seasons with the division-rival Tigers, he’s a right-handed hitter that comes with a notable platoon split, making him best-suited for part-time work.

Losing Brantley was a sizable enough blow to the team, but the club lost projected center fielder Abraham Almonte to an 80-game PED suspension in the first week of Spring Training. That Cleveland was relying on the journeyman Almonte, a career .244/.297/.378 hitter that batted an improved .264/.321/.455 in 196 PAs with the Indians last year, was a questionable decision in the first place, as I noted in previewing the team’s offseason back in early October.

With Almonte and Brantley out of action, Cleveland will look to some combination of Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Collin Cowgill, Joey Butler and minor league signees like Will Venable and Robbie Grossman in the outfield. Prospect Tyler Naquin, too, could factor into the mix with a strong spring after a solid minor league showing in 2015. None of those options come with much certainty, though a few patchwork platoons could be forged. Davis has long handled left-handed pitching quite well, so he could be paired with newly converted outfielder Chisenhall (who posted brilliant defensive marks in a small sample last year) in right field or with Venable in center field. However, Venable has suffered through two dismal seasons, and at 33 years of age, it’s fair to wonder if there’s been some deterioration of his skills.

Cowgill and Butler are, like Davis, right-handed bats best-suited for part-time work; Cowgill comes with a more defensive-minded approach, whereas Butler provides more with the bat but less with the glove.

It should be pointed out that Austin Jackson remained available on the free agent market even after the Almonte suspension, but the Indians watched him sign a one-year, $5MM deal with the division-rival White Sox instead of bringing him into the fold. Cleveland reportedly showed interest in Jackson, but the payroll was long said to be tapped out. This is, of course, speaking with the glaring benefit of hindsight, but given the need in the outfield, the $7MM allocated to Napoli with the hopes that he can still hit right-handed pitching (which he failed to do in 2015) could arguably have been better spent helping to bolster Cleveland’s offer to Jackson. When Napoli signed, no one knew that Jackson would languish in free agency for this long, nor that Almonte would be suspended. But relying on Almonte was always a risk, and given the number of first base/DH types that signed late (or, in Justin Morneau‘s case, have yet to sign), there’s a good case to be made that prioritizing the outfield and pursuing a cheaper first base/DH option should have been Plan A all along.

All of this outfield uncertainty raises the question of whether the Indians should’ve dealt from their stockpile of controllable arms to add a bat into the mix. Top prospects Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier are both rising through the minor league ranks, so it’s understandable if the club feels that reinforcements are on the way. That, however, does little to improve the short-term outlook for a club that is otherwise well-positioned to contend within its division. The Indians were oft-connected to Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and we saw the Rockies part with a controllable corner option in Corey Dickerson without even securing a Major League ready starting pitcher. The D-backs, too, saw fit to part with five years of Ender Inciarte (and another pair of highly touted prospects) to add Shelby Miller to their rotation, and it can be argued that Cleveland has multiple arms that are superior to Miller. Other financially affordable names like Charlie Blackmon were said to be on the market, and there was even talk of the Astros being willing to entertain the thought of moving George Springer for a sizable enough return.

Cleveland boasts a rotation that would still look appealing even with one member subtracted, a solid bullpen and quality bench pieces in Jose Ramirez and Roberto Perez. (Any of the previously listed Butler, Cowgill or Venable would also make for a quality big league bench piece.) Relying on this outfield mix while also banking on returns to form from Napoli and Yan Gomes could very well create difficulty when it comes to scoring runs.

Deal of Note

Tomlin’s extension, while not the biggest headline-grabber, was one of the more peculiar multi-year deals in recent memory. Tomlin had already agreed to a one-year, $2.25MM contract to avoid arbitration, and he received the added perk of the Indians making that sum fully guaranteed (which is not the norm for arb salaries). His contract, however, guarantees him $5.5MM in total, including the upcoming season, meaning that Tomlin surrendered what would have been his first free-agent season for a total of $3.25MM. Beyond that, he gave the Indians control of his second free-agent season by virtue of a club option valued at $3MM (with a $750K buyout). If the option is picked up, Tomlin will receive $5.5MM for his first two free-agent years.

While he doesn’t come with a huge track record in the Majors, Tomlin showed promising gains in the strikeout department across the past two seasons, and we’ve seen teams throw around $5.5MM and more on one-year gambles (e.g. Rich Hill) with based on very small samples of success. The flipside, of course, is that he’s guaranteed himself some meaningful salary — something that was clearly important to Tomlin, as evidenced by the fact that his agents pushed for a fully guaranteed arb agreement. Still, if Tomlin enjoys even a reasonably healthy, successful season, his earning power would have vastly outpaced the extension’s modest guarantee.

Overview

At the outset of free agency, I wouldn’t have disagreed with the notion that the Indians didn’t need to do much to contend for the AL Central in 2016. I doubt, however, that I’d have anticipated such a strict adherence to that line of thinking on the team’s behalf. The Indians will once again have one of baseball’s best pitching staffs, but they’ll need plenty to go right in order to score enough runs to support those arms. An accelerated return for Brantley — which is the direction he’s reportedly heading — and contributions from a prospect such as Naquin or even Zimmer would go a long ways toward improving the team’s chances. That’s quite a bit to bank on, though, especially considering the other rebounds that will be hoped for around the rest of the roster (Napoli, Gomes, possibly Venable).

Questions aside, I’ll be surprised if the Indians aren’t in the mix in the AL Central this season. Beyond the team’s pitching depth, the pairing of Francisco Lindor (whom I felt should’ve landed Rookie of the Year honors over the also-excellent Carlos Correa) and Jason Kipnis creates one of baseball’s best double-play tandems, and a healthy Brantley is among baseball’s best outfielders. Nevertheless, many of the same offense-oriented questions that surrounded the team in 2015 figure to recur in 2016, and it’s not hard to envision them seeking a bat or two come July.

MLBTR readers that want to give their own take on the Indians’ offseason can weigh in with their grade in the following poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How would you grade the Indians' offseason?

  • C 44% (1,574)
  • D 22% (792)
  • B 22% (785)
  • F 8% (266)
  • A 4% (124)

Total votes: 3,541


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By | at March 9, 2016 2:21pm CDT

This is the third entry in the Offseason In Review series.  You can also read our Reds and Rockies entries.

The White Sox addressed many different offseason needs without making big sacrifices to the team’s future.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • Nate Jones, RP: three years, $8MM.  Includes $4.65MM club option for 2019, $5.15MM club option for 2020, and $6MM mutual option for 2021, assuming Jones does not require right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

As explained in our October Offseason Outlook for the White Sox, the team had rampant needs this winter.  Let’s begin by examining how GM Rick Hahn upgraded baseball’s worst collection of position players.

Given all the work the White Sox had to do around the diamond, I didn’t feel the team had to make a change at catcher.  Hahn disagreed, and proceeded to sign Alex Avila, non-tender incumbent Tyler Flowers, and sign Dioner Navarro.  Is the new Avila-Navarro tandem better than Flowers and Geovany Soto?  White Sox catchers hit .230/.293/.376 last year, and Avila and Navarro should provide an offensive upgrade.  It seems likely that Flowers and Soto are better at pitch framing, however.  This change mostly looks like a wash.  The Sox also have out of options catcher Rob Brantly on the 40-man; he could wind up with another team.

Feb 27, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop <a rel=Alexei Ramirez served as Chicago’s starting shortstop for seven years.  That era ended when the White Sox declined his club option.  Tyler Saladino may still act as the bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, but the White Sox smartly added veteran Jimmy Rollins on a minor league deal as insurance.  The Sox acquired Brett Lawrie from Oakland to play second base, giving up a pair of arms ranked 18th and 23rd in their farm system by Baseball America.  The price was relatively meager, but it also reflects Lawrie’s failure to live up to expectations thus far in his Major League career.  The 26-year-old finally stayed healthy in 2015, but was barely above replacement level.  If Lawrie is able to bounce back defensively and remain healthy, I think there’s a 2-3 win player in there.  It was a reasonable gamble for Hahn, and Lawrie is under team control for 2017.

For the team’s third base vacancy, the White Sox landed the best available option in Todd Frazier.  I was surprised the Hahn was able to acquire two years of Frazier for Montas, Thompson, and Johnson.  Each of those young players has promise, of course, but the Sox didn’t have to surrender a blue-chip prospect or anyone they’d miss in 2016.  Over the last two years, Frazier has been one of the five best third basemen in the game.  He fits well with the team’s core of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Jose Abreu, and Eaton.

I felt that the White Sox should acquire two starting outfielders, pushing Melky Cabrera to the DH spot and Adam LaRoche and Avisail Garcia potentially off the roster.  The Sox showed December interest in Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes, but they reportedly did not want to exceed a three-year deal.  Cespedes ultimately did sign for three years, but at a hefty $25MM average annual value.  The Sox reportedly had interest in Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler once the calendar turned to 2016, offering Fowler a two-year deal worth more than $17MM.  In the end, Austin Jackson was signed just this week on an affordable one-year deal.  The Jackson signing wasn’t an exciting way to address the team’s outfield, but it does protect against the possible effects of Adam Eaton’s offseason shoulder surgery.  Eaton is not yet ready to play in the field, and has an injury history that suggests relying on him for 153 games again would be unwise.  The team also weakened its outfield depth by including Trayce Thompson in the Todd Frazier deal, so Jackson was sorely needed.  If Eaton, Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, and Jackson are healthy at the same time, it seems that Avisail Garcia will lose the most playing time, and that makes the team better.

As expected, the Sox let Jeff Samardzija leave via free agency, collecting a draft pick in the process.  In getting Mat Latos for just $3MM, Hahn signed the winter’s best pitching reclamation project at a small fraction of the projected cost.  The 28-year-old Latos was brilliant from 2010-13, and with good health he could return to form under pitching coach Don Cooper.

The Sox will return a similar bullpen for 2016, having re-signed Albers.  The bullpen will again by led by veterans David Robertson and Zach Duke, but will benefit from a full season from the newly-extended Nate Jones.  Turner was claimed off waivers in October, non-tendered in December, and re-signed a few days later.  Turner and Dan Jennings are out of minor league options, so they’ll either make the 25-man roster out of camp or be off the 40-man somehow.  Maybe the White Sox were simply content with their bullpen, or maybe their hands were tied financially given the $16MM they’ll be paying Robertson and Duke this year.

Questions Remaining

The outfield/designated hitter situation is the biggest remaining question for the White Sox.  The addition of Jackson is balanced by the loss of Thompson, so nothing was really done to address a group of players that provided very little value in 2015.  Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia were each below replacement level last year, and the team still needs to give a lot of playing time to at least two of them.  One more significant outfield addition would have gone a long way.

Latos helps the team’s rotation depth, but it’s difficult to guess how many good innings he’ll provide.  The White Sox have John Danks, Erik Johnson, and Jacob Turner as starters five through seven, all of whom project for ERAs around 5.00.  It’s unclear when top pitching prospect Carson Fulmer will be ready.  Further down the depth chart it might be Chris Beck and Scott Carroll.  Most teams aren’t thrilled about their eighth starter, but the Sox are thin after Sale, Quintana, and Rodon.

In general, a cautious yet active offseason will draw praise.  However, the flip side to bargain shopping is that you get less reliable players.  Yes, the White Sox addressed their middle infield situation, but Rollins and Lawrie were actually pretty bad in 2015.  Ian Desmond would have been a safer bet than Rollins.  Avila, Latos, and Lawrie can’t be replied upon to stay healthy; that’s part of the reason they came cheap.

Latos and Lawrie may have come cheap for another reason: both have had questions raised about their attitudes.  The White Sox have a long history of success bringing in some of the game’s bad boys, a point referenced by Hahn when MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince asked about Latos.  Still, Robin Ventura’s clubhouse this year will be worth monitoring.

Deal Of Note

In early November, I pegged Austin Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal.  Maybe I was just wrong from the start, but signing him for less than half of that amount is an excellent deal for the team.  Jackson hasn’t been an above average hitter since 2013, but he played a capable center field last year and could certainly be worth two wins again.  That’s easily worth $5MM.  Jackson will be in center field when he starts, pushing Adam Eaton to a corner spot and improving Chicago’s defense.  As an added bonus, the signing kept Jackson away from the division-rival Indians, who still lack outfield depth.  I don’t think the White Sox entered the offseason planning to wait until March for an outfield bargain, given their interest in other free agents and trade targets.  Staying disciplined on free agents is risky in its own way as the supply dries up.  If another team had signed Jackson this month, the White Sox outfield would be in a really bad place.

Overview

Rick Hahn must be applauded for his offseason, as he did so much without transferring a burden onto the team’s long-term future.  It’s fair to say Hahn helped get the White Sox into this mess through some of last winter’s free agent spending, but he has positioned them to be within spitting distance of a playoff spot for 2016.  With players like Lawrie, Rollins, Jackson, Cabrera, LaRoche, and Latos, you might think a lot of things need to go right for the White Sox to contend.  I don’t think that’s true, however.  Hahn’s veteran acquisitions raised the team’s floor considerably, and they shouldn’t have the dead roster spots they did last year.  Hopefully, the White Sox will take an aggressive approach toward the trade deadline, as the team could well be one player away.

Now, it’s your turn to grade the team’s offseason (click here if you’re using our app):

How Would You Grade The White Sox Offseason?

  • B 54% (3,662)
  • C 21% (1,439)
  • A 17% (1,158)
  • D 5% (332)
  • F 3% (212)

Total votes: 6,803

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2015-16 Offseason In Review Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By | at March 8, 2016 11:58pm CDT

Last summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal seemed to promise the launch of a rebuilding effort, but the Rockies didn’t act as a seller this winter.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

GM Jeff Bridich and his front office surely feel they’ve significantly upgraded the team’s bullpen with a series of veteran additions. Jason Motte and Chad Qualls — whose signings were announced in tandem — were added to bolster the back of the pen from the right side, while Jake McGee delivers premium K:BB rates from the left. They are the key new arms that will help to gobble up relief frames, hopefully in a more productive fashion than many of the outgoing arms. While last year’s overall unit was probably more below-average than terrible, Colorado bid adieu this winter to John Axford (55 2/3 innings in 2015), Christian Friedrich (58 1/3), Rafael Betancourt (39 1/3), Tommy Kahnle (33 1/3), Brooks Brown (33), and LaTroy Hawkins (22 1/3 before his summer trade and eventual retirement).

With righty Justin Miller and lefty Boone Logan also providing late-inning options, there’s certainly hope for improvement — though it doesn’t help that the club just lost Jairo Diaz, a fairly interesting power arm, to Tommy John surgery. The question, though, is whether the price was right. Spending $16MM in total for two years apiece of Motte and Qualls isn’t a huge investment, at least for most of the league, but both come with real questions (including age) and neither deal seems to represent a screaming value. The real eye-opener was McGee, who is a legitimately excellent reliever but who comes with some injury questions and required the sacrifice of four years of Corey Dickerson and his rather impressive bat.

Feb 29, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder <a rel=Of course, Dickerson was only shipped out after the Rox added Gerardo Parra. He unquestionably represents an upgrade defensively, though he doesn’t seem to possess near the offensive upside of the younger and cheaper player he’s replacing. The everyday outfield alignment — also including Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, either one of whom could also have been traded — is entirely left-handed, which obviously creates some questions. But Colorado tendered Brandon Barnes and added Ryan Raburn on a minors deal, so there will be some options against opposing southpaws.

The only other significant major league acquisition was slugger Mark Reynolds, whose power will be a sight to behold in Coors Field even if his on-base percentage isn’t. He’s a low-cost add who figures to split time with the southpaw-swinging Ben Paulsen at first while contributing some pop off of the bench. That pairing will step in for Justin Morneau, who missed much of last season and received a $750K buyout when the club declined its end of a $9MM mutual option.

Questions Remaining

The questions in Colorado always seem to begin with the rotation, and at first glance it’s hard to fathom that the organization did not add any MLB-level starters over the winter. After all, last year’s revolving-door staff threw less innings than any other and produced at a level rivaled only by the Phillies.

To be fair, though, the Rockies figure to welcome back several pitchers who missed all or most of 2015, and as I posited at the offseason’s outset, it never made much sense to plow money into marginal free agent hurlers to convince them to come to Coors. Injury rehabbers Jordan Lyles and Tyler Chatwood figure to slot directly into a rotation led by last year’s two best performers: veteran lefty Jorge De La Rosa and surprisingly productive righty Chad Bettis. There’s ample uncertainty not only within, but also behind that foursome, but there are plenty of options floating around. Certainly, Colorado will hope that at least one of its advanced younger arms — among them, Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Matzek (if he can overcome his anxiety issues) — will make some real strides in 2016.

While the pen has been bolstered with the three aforementioned additions, that doesn’t mean it’s an unquestioned strength. There are plenty of arms in camp, but not many of the depth pieces have demonstrated MLB track records. Beyond the core five noted above, the most experienced pitchers on hand are righties Christian Bergman and Gonzalez Germen and southpaw Chris Rusin (who has mostly worked as a starter). Scott Oberg threw nearly sixty frames in the majors last year, though the results were not promising, and Miguel Castro — a big part of the Tulo deal — could force his way into the picture. Of course, the club will be looking forward to the return of quality righty Adam Ottavino, who signed a multi-year pact while rehabbing from a UCL replacement and could make his way back by the middle of the year.

The biggest single uncertainty in the Colorado organization, though, may be shortstop Jose Reyes, who is set to stand trial after being charged with assaulting his wife over the offseason. There’s a real prospect of jail time, if not also immigration consequences, not to mention the near-certainty of a significant suspension. (Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman just took a thirty-game ban for an incident in which he was neither arrested nor charged.) Reyes has already been placed on administrative leave by commissioner Rob Manfred.

While the matter obviously carries far broader import than a typical player-contract issue, it has also created something of an odd situation from the team’s perspective. It’s an unquestioned loss on the field, as the 32-year-old had been a solid 3-WAR type of player in recent years before a tough 2015. Certainly, Reyes is much more established than potential replacements Cristhian Adames and Trevor Story, and if nothing else could in theory have generated some trade value. But from a broader perspective, it could well be that an extended absence will actually be a net positive for the Rockies. After all, he’s still owed $48MM — for the next two seasons and a buyout on his option — and the club will pocket any amount that he doesn’t earn due to his reprehensible alleged crimes.

Players like Adames and Story — and the above-mentioned Paulsen — are among the newer names that are likely to receive at least a look at some point in 2016. Behind the dish, relative newcomers like Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy will fight for opportunities to back up (and, perhaps, eventually supplant) veteran Nick Hundley. But the real excitement on the young position player front — represented by outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia, as well as third baseman Ryan McMahon — may be another year or so away.

Deal Of Note

Dealing away hitters for arms has long seemed an intriguing strategy for an organization that has had trouble not only in attracting free agent pitching, but in developing its own. (Indeed, Bridich discussed just that in his appearance on the MLBTR Podcast.) In that sense, then, the decision to sign Parra and ship out an incumbent option (Dickerson) for a pitcher (McGee) holds immediate interest.

Dickerson represents an intriguing but hardly flawless asset as a player. He’s a lightly-regarded fielder and was limited to just 65 games last season due to plantar fasciitis. There’s no question his value is lower than his batting line would suggest due to those considerations. That being said, the 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since cracking the bigs. Over 925 plate appearances, he owns a .299/.345/.534 slash with 39 home runs. While that obviously must be adjusted to account for Coors, it still works out to an excellent 125 OPS+ and 124 wRC+. The Rays will get four years of control over Dickerson, including one at the league minimum.

To be sure, the 29-year-old McGee is a top-tier reliever who has consistently turned in premium results. Since his first full season in 2012, he has provided 226 2/3 innings of 2.58 ERA pitching with an outstanding 11.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Like Dickerson, he has some limitations — most notably, the simple fact that he works from the pen rather than the rotation. McGee is controlled for just two more seasons — not at super-cheap rates (beginning with $4.8MM this year) — and carries a somewhat risky Tommy John profile given his time missed last year (and other factors).

Ultimately, perhaps, the main concern with the deal isn’t so much the overall value proposition as it is the side of the equation taken by the Rockies. McGee is one of the best pen southpaws in the game, but it’s unclear how many winnable games he’ll be handed by an underwhelming Colorado starting staff. And while he could certainly be flipped for even greater value than the Rox gave up to get him — assuming the team will be willing to entertain a mid-year sell-off — a half season at Coors Field probably isn’t an optimal platform for a trade.

All that being said, the decision on Dickerson can’t be understood in isolation. In a perfect world, a Colorado bat-for-arms scenario would probably involve sending out a few relatively expensive years of a hitter in exchange for a controllable starter. The 30-year-old Gonzalez (who is owed $37MM for two more seasons) represented a plausible centerpiece in such a swap, particularly after he finished with a huge second half. His uneven recent performance and concerning injury history make him a fairly risky asset for a club like the Rockies, despite his evident ability, and there seemed to be a decent bit of plausible demand.

But the club decided to hold onto CarGo rather than pursuing a strategy like that taken with regard to Tulowitzki. Of course, adding a strong young rotation piece for the veteran may or may not have been an achievable goal this winter, but in many respects his non-trade is an even more notable event than was the move to get McGee for Dickerson.

Overview

It’s certainly still possible that Gonzalez could change hands at the trade deadline, and he will be a closely-watched name if Colorado isn’t keeping up in the NL West come July. (The same holds true of McGee.) CarGo’s health will go a long way toward determining the club’s competitiveness as well as his trade value, of course, but the overall complexion of this offseason could change if there’s a future fallback plan in place.

The overall situation poses a difficult and ongoing balancing act for Bridich, who is trying to build for the future while maintaining some near-term competitiveness with a bottom-third payroll. It is ultimately difficult to criticize the Rockies too harshly for trying to put some pieces around players like Gonzalez and rising superstar Nolan Arenado, who along with solid regulars such as D.J. LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon make for a nice core on the position-player side of the equation. Of course, the same rationale could have led the organization to hold onto Tulowitzki, who was instead cashed in for prospects and cost savings. And it’s fair to wonder if Colorado would have been better off taking bolder action this winter in one direction or the other after parting with its homegrown star.

At the end of the day, the bottom line seems the same as ever: unless and until the organization can entrench some quality starters at the major league level — whether or not a fully-committed rebuild is undertaken to make that possible — it may continue to confront the same kinds of hard-to-win dilemmas with regard to its best players.

With all of this said, we’ll open up critique of the club’s offseason to readers via poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…

How Would You Grade the Rockies' Offseason?

  • D 38% (1,291)
  • C 32% (1,089)
  • F 21% (714)
  • B 8% (254)
  • A 1% (34)

Total votes: 3,382

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