2016-17 Offseason In Review Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | at April 4, 2017 11:27am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Phillies’ front office, which continues to chart a steady rebuilding course, added short-term veterans to supplement a group of young talent that is steadily matriculating to the majors.

Major League Signings

Jeremy Hellickson, SP: one year, $17.2MM (accepted qualifying offer)
Michael Saunders, OF: one year, $9MM (includes $1MM buyout on $11MM club option)
Joaquin Benoit, RP: one year, $7.5MM
Andres Blanco, IF: one year, $3MM
Total spend: $36.7MM.

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Clay Buchholz from Red Sox in exchange for 2B Josh Tobias
Acquired 2B/OF Howie Kendrick from Dodgers in exchange for 1B/OF Darin Ruf, 2B/OF Darnell Sweeney
Acquired RP Pat Neshek from Astros in exchange for cash/PTBNL (exercised $6MM club option)
Acquired RP Pat Venditte from Mariners for OF Joey Curletta
Acquired RP Mario Sanchez from Nationals as PTBNL in exchange for RP Jimmy Cordero
Claimed RP David Rollins from Rangers (later lost via waiver claim)
Claimed 3B Richie Shaffer from Mariners (later lost via waiver claim)

Notable Minor League Signings

Pedro Beato, Sean Burnett (released), Chris Coghlan (released), Pedro Florimon, Hector Gomez, Ryan Hanigan (released), Bryan Holoday (released), Daniel Nava, Cesar Ramos

Extensions

Odubel Herrera, OF: five years, $30.5MM (includes 2022 & 2023 club options)

Notable Losses

Cody Asche (non-tendered), Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Matt Harrison (still owed $15MM), David Hernandez, Ryan Howard (declined club option), Charlie Morton (declined mutual option), Ruf

Phillies Roster; Phillies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Ryan Howard’s departure, the Phillies have fully shed the stars that made up the organization’s most recent contending roster — with their salaries also now departing the payroll. Philadelphia is now building a new core, and just made the first long-term commitment to one of those pieces.

If you look at the Phillies’ future balance sheet, there’s just one name on it: Odubel Herrera, the former Rule 5 pick who is now controlled through 2023 after striking an extension over the winter. We’ll have more on that move below, in the “deal of note” section.

Interestingly, that was really the only significant forward-looking move the Phils made over the winter. There was some trade chatter, mostly surrounding second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but there was no urgency to deal him with three years of arbitration control remaining. And the Phils were never rumored to be chasing any controllable major leaguers.

Instead, the club seems content to nurture its existing group of young talent while continuing to build through the draft. But that’s not to say that GM Matt Klentak and company sat on their hands all winter. With massive spending capacity and a new TV contract, the plan called for some fairly significant investments in the 2017 roster — none of which, notably, will impact the future payroll.

That $36.7MM total spending figure listed above is a bit misleading. In addition to its free-agent commitments, Philadelphia struck three separate trades that essentially functioned the same way. The team gave up little in the way of players, but took on $30MM in salary. Combined with the open-market moves, two-thirds of Philly’s approximately $100MM Opening Day payroll comes from newly-added veterans.

So, what did they get for their money? There was no singular focus akin to the Braves’ and Padres’ rotation overhauls. Instead, the Phillies splashed veterans across the roster.

The rotation features some appealing young talent, though the Phillies obviously hoped to relieve the pressure on the arms that will be needed for the long haul. Jeremy Hellickson represented the first major addition when he somewhat surprisingly accepted the qualifying offer issued by the club. While the Phils surely would have been happy to recoup a draft pick, it’s hardly the worst result given the strategy. That said, if the club hopes to cash in on its thus-far worthwhile investment in Hellickson, it’ll need to deal him at the deadline; under the new rules, he’s not eligible for another QO.

Despite the return of Hellickson, the Phillies elected to add Clay Buchholz to a staff that’ll also feature Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. There were alternatives to adding another veteran — Jake Thompson reached the majors last year and several 40-man members are throwing at Triple-A — but Philadelphia elected to take on Buchholz in hopes of a resurgence. If he can carry forward his strong work late in 2016 (2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings), then the Phillies can shop him over the summer or perhaps make a qualifying offer at season’s end.

The bullpen saw additions, too, with Pat Neshek coming via trade and Joaquin Benoit arriving from the open market. These elder statesmen both had promising results last year, but also come with questions. Neshek carried a 3.06 ERA while allowing less than one baserunner per inning through his typical blend of few walks and weak contact. But his success was driven by a BABIP-against mark (.216) that was even lower than usual (.236 career), and he was bombed when allowed to face lefties (.240/.321/.646 and ten home runs in just 55 plate appearances). Benoit, meanwhile, allowed just one earned run on 17 hits in his 23 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays, but had struggled with his control and long ball susceptibility over the first half of the season with the Mariners.

With the infield accounted for, Klentak and his charges turned to addressing an outfield that had received meager contributions from the corners in 2016. The first move, acquiring Howie Kendrick, may have been made in part to provide cover in the event that a deal was struck involving Hernandez. But the former second baseman was always penciled in to play left, and that’s where he’ll open the season. A paragon of consistency at the plate for the bulk of his career, Kendrick fell off last season and ended up hitting just .255/.326/.366 — though he did substantially increase his walk rate. While there’s not much upside to him as a left fielder, Kendrick at least represents a sturdy veteran who’ll plug a hole.

Next, the Phils staked a more interesting bet on Michael Saunders, whose deal includes an option for 2018. The 30-year-old was finally healthy and productive last year, though he faded badly after an outstanding start. Still, the overall results — .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs over 558 plate appearances — were quite good, and Philadelphia would no doubt be pleased with a repeat performance.

That slate of moves was accompanied by the re-signing of veteran infielder Andres Blanco, who has been a handy member of the bench for the past two seasons.

Read more analysis below …

Questions Remaining

The immediate needs were filled with the offseason shopping, but that doesn’t mean this is a complete roster. While the Phillies surely aren’t mailing it in, it still seems more likely they’ll end up with a top-ten draft pick than a .500 or better record.

In the rotation, there are both upside and downside cases for Hellickson and Buchholz. The same holds, in different ways, for the younger arms. Velasquez and especially Nola had some elbow problems last year while also battling inconsistency. Eickhoff, meanwhile, will need to manage the long ball to reach his potential.

The bullpen has an interesting mix of the above-mentioned veterans and live-armed youngsters. Hector Neris leads that group, with Edubray Ramos and southpaw Joely Rodriguez also on hand. There’s some boom and bust here, clearly, which is all the more interesting given the ongoing questions with regard to the closer’s role. Jeanmar Gomez earned a big arb salary after taking the job last year, but ended the year with a 4.85 ERA and uninspiring peripherals. He’ll be hard-pressed to keep the job; if he can’t, it’ll be interesting to see whether Neris or one of the experienced late-inning hurlers is next in line.

In the infield, shortstop Freddy Galvis has morphed into something of a Danny Espinosa clone, with a sudden power surge, good speed, and excellent glovework offset by an abysmal on-base percentage. He still seems to be a placeholder for prospect J.P. Crawford, who’ll look to gain traction at Triple-A before making the leap to the majors. Hernandez was the team’s true breakout performer in 2016, slashing .294/.371/.393 with 17 steals and a well-reviewed fielding performance at second. Whether he can repeat remains to be seen. Both Galvis and Hernandez could conceivably become trade pieces at the deadline, or the latter could be approached about an extension.

There’s more of a future-oriented tone at the corners. Maikel Franco failed to follow up on his stellar 2015 season, but hit 25 homers and obviously has the talent to become a cornerstone player. The Phils will be watching his development closely. Across the way, Tommy Joseph — the former top catching prospect who was forced out from behind the dish due to concussions — turned in a surprisingly promising year in 2016. He did enough to deserve a full crack at the job with a .248 ISO and 21 homers in 347 plate appearances, though he’ll need to maintain that power and boost his on-base percentage (.308 on a 6.3% walk rate and .267 BABIP) to lay claim to first base for the long term. Joseph also showed fairly significant platoon splits — he hit for power but didn’t reach base as often against righties — so lefty hitting reserves Daniel Nava and Brock Stassi could spell him at times.

Things get even more interesting behind the plate, where Cameron Rupp is seeking to stake his own claim to being a future piece. He slashed a surprising .252/.303/.447 with 16 bombs, representing plenty of lumber for a backstop. Rupp has some prospects nipping at his heels, though. Jorge Alfaro reached the majors last year, while Andrew Knapp has earned the second-catcher job to open the year. There could be quite a bit of intrigue at the catching position for the Phillies if all three of these players pan out, though it’s also quite possible there’ll be some growing pains in the short run.

That brings us to the outfield. The corner spots could either be a source of stability or see quite a lot of change. There’s no doubting that Kendrick and Saunders will see the bulk of the action to open the year, but that’s subject to change. Injury, ineffectiveness, or summer trade chatter could help lead to movement, though perhaps the biggest driver will be the performances of the Phillies’ next wave of outfield talent. Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, and Dylan Cozens could all push for a promotion at some point during the season to come.

Deal Of Note

If there’s a single position on the Phillies’ roster that’s not in question, it’s center field. That’s now the domain of Odubel Herrera, who is one of the game’s more interesting players.

Herrera more than made good on his Rule 5 status, taking the regular job in center and running with it. He just turned 25 and has turned in consecutive seasons of 111 OPS+ hitting — making him a ~4-WAR player with the good baserunning and fielding metrics he has compiled.

What’s so intriguing about Herrera isn’t just that he was able to leap to the majors, but that he has changed since his arrival. His debut season was plenty promising, though a .387 BABIP left some question as to whether he’ be able to keep pace with the bat. Herrera responded by maturing at the plate, nearly doubling his walk rate (to 9.6%) and shaving nearly four points off his strikeout rate (to 20.4%) even while boosting his power to respectable levels (15 home runs, .134 ISO).

Though he did struggle in the second half — most worryingly, he reverted toward his prior K/BB rates — there’s enough evidence to think that Herrera may have more in the tank as a hitter. Even if that doesn’t make it reasonable to expect him to increase his output substantially, perhaps it provides reason to hope that he can actually remain a reasonably above-average hitter.

All said, it’s a sensible investment for the Phils, who can afford to wait to commit but could also afford to stomach a mistake. Even in a downside scenario, Herrera would seem likely to be a strong fourth outfielder, though of course the club has reason to expect quite a bit more.

With Herrera now taking his place on the accounting books, it’ll be interesting to see who’s next. Philadelphia will no doubt be assessing this season just who ought to receive such a commitment. And that, in turn, will guide not only possible extension talks, but also the player acquisition strategy pursued next winter.

Overview

The Phillies are committed to improving the on-field product without hampering their future spending ability. And they are trying to avoid the kind of multi-year austerity plan that would drive away fans while improving draft position. That approach may simply be a luxury available to a bigger-market rebuilder, but there’s also an argument to be made that an even more dramatic approach could or should have been tried. It’ll be years before we can fully assess, but the upcoming season will begin to show some of the returns not only for the Phillies, but also for a variety of other teams on the same general path (such as the Braves, Padres, and Brewers).

What’s your take on the Phillies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Phillies' winter?

B 58% (706)
C 19% (232)
A 18% (219)
D 3% (38)
F 1% (13)

Total votes: 1,208

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By Jeff Todd | at April 3, 2017 8:28am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Rockies obviously see an opportunity to contend in 2017, and made some hefty commitments over the winter to bolster that possibility. But ongoing pitching questions and a slate of spring injuries have clouded the outlook somewhat.

Major League Signings

Ian Desmond, IF/OF: five years, $70MM (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option)
Mike Dunn, RP: three years, $19MM (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club/vesting option)
Greg Holland, RP: one year, $7MM (includes $1MM buyout of mutual/vesting player option)
Alexi Amarista, IF: one year, $1.25MM (includes $150K buyout of $2.5MM club option)
Total spend: $97.25MM.

Trades And Claims

Acquired RP James Farris from Cubs in exchange for SP Eddie Butler

Extensions

Nolan Arenado, 3B: two years, $29.5MM (did not extend team control)

Notable Minor League Signings

Domonic Brown, Matt Carasiti, Stephen Cardullo, Noel Cuevas, Chris Denorfia, Evan Grills, Ryan Hanigan, Mark Reynolds, Josh Rutledge (claimed in Rule 5 draft)

Notable Losses

Butler, Jorge De La Rosa, Daniel Descalso, Nick Hundley, Ryan Raburn

Rockies Depth Chart; Rockies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

After addressing the open managerial job with the hiring of Bud Black at the opening of the offseason, the Rockies had a wide-open slate of possibilities. The team could conceivably have pursued a variety of trade scenarios involving such established stars as Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. Instead, the club ended up keeping its core intact and adding the old-fashioned way: through some pretty big spending on the open market.

There were two major openings on the position-player side entering the winter: first base and catcher. Colorado elected to plunk down a lot of cash to add a productive veteran, but the player chosen came as quite some surprise. When the news broke that Ian Desmond was headed to the Rockies, it was generally assumed that he’d be playing in the outfield, with one of the team’s left-handed hitters — Gonzalez, Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, or perhaps even David Dahl — likely to be traded to address another need. Instead, the Rox stuck to their initial suggestion that Desmond would play first, though the organization notes that it values his versatility now and into the future. (More on that below.)

Behind the dish, the Rockies bypassed opportunities to pursue veterans via trade or free agency, where names like Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Welington Castillo and (on the trade front) Brian McCann were available. Instead, the organization decided to rely on Tony Wolters, Tom Murphy, and Dustin Garneau. Murphy, who seems to have the greatest upside of the bunch, will be on the DL to open the year, so the Rockies made a late move to add veteran Ryan Hanigan.

Alexi Amarista was added to replace departing utilityman Daniel Descalso, but otherwise a bunch of friendly faces will be taking the field at Coors. In addition to the outfielders named above, high-power/high-strikeout shortstop Trevor Story is back from injury; Nolan Arenado and 2016 NL batting champion DJ LeMahieu will look to repeat their strong 2016 seasons at third and second base; and Mark Reynolds will return to first base (he re-signed on a minors deal) until Desmond, who suffered a fractured finger in Soring Training, is healthy. Rounding out the bench is Stephen Cardullo, an indy ball find who surprisingly spent time in the bigs last year.

Of course, the lineup was always seen as a strength for Colorado. Entering the winter, most expected the club to focus on pitching. Though the rotation finally had shown signs of life, it wasn’t exactly overloaded with established arms, and the bullpen had some clear holes.

The latter group got the attention that was expected, and then some. In addition to tendering a contract to Jake McGee despite his poor first year with the organization, Colorado gave Mike Dunn a surprising three-year deal and beat the market to roll the dice on Greg Holland, the once-elite reliever who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery. That makes for one pricey relief corps. When you add the 2017 salaries of those three pitchers to what’s owed Adam Ottavino, Jordan Lyles, Chad Qualls, and the just-designated Jason Motte, the tab for this season alone lands just under $30MM.

But the rotation was another story. Content to keep its lefty-heavy outfield mix intact, and enamored of the relatively untested options on hand, the Rox did not add a single starter over the offseason.

Questions Remaining

The Rockies were arguably justified in staying their hand on adding another piece to the rotation. Entering camp, four spots were firmly accounted for (by Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, and Chad Bettis). Beyond that quartet, there were quite a few contenders for the final job. Though adding a veteran to bolster the competition would have been nice, perhaps an appealing target couldn’t be enticed given the arms on hand and the prospect of pitching at Coors Field. And while the trade route surely was at least considered, either a lack of suitable matches or a differing strategy may simply have led the Rockies to a different approach.

Taking that course, though, always meant there’d be a lot of pressure on quite a few young pitchers. Teams know they’ll use more than five starters over the course of a season, so their depth charts must go at least eight or ten arms deep. In the case of the Rockies, outside of the top four arms listed above, the only potential starter in the organization who has more than eight MLB appearances under his belt is Chris Rusin, who thrived last year in a relief role. Prospects Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez are the only others who have seen any major league action at all, with each getting a taste of the bigs last year.

The situation worsened significantly with the terrible news that Bettis would require chemotherapy after his testicular cancer unexpectedly spread. Though he says it’s possible he could return this year, everyone’s first priority will remain Bettis’s well-being. Clearly, the team can’t count on a contribution from the steady performer in 2017.

Thus it was that the Rockies found it necessary to pluck two fresh arms from the farm to open the 2017 season. It seems that Antonio Senzatela (22) and Kyle Freeland (23) will get those jobs, with Marquez functioning as a swingman to open the season. The former was oustanding at Double-A in 2016, but he threw only 34 2/3 innings as the team exercised plenty of caution with a shoulder issue. While he had reached 154 frames in the prior season, asking for 32 starts would be a reach. Freeland, meanwhile, was the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft. However, he only reached the upper minors last year and didn’t exactly dominate with a 3.89 ERA over 162 innings with 6.0 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. Also of note: that innings tally represented a big jump after two consecutive partials seasons.

Whenever the next need opens up, the Rockies can turn to Rusin (once he’s healthy), Marquez, Hoffman, and perhaps Lyles. They’ll also be able to dip further into the farm, which includes pitchers such as 40-man members Shane Carle, Yency Almonte, and Zach Jemiola. That may well be sufficient depth, but the Rockies set to tap into an unusually youthful reservoir of starting pitching for an organization that has its sights set on contention.

The ‘pen faces its own questions, but they’re mostly of the typical kind. Overall, the unit has a fair bit of upside despite the recent health issues faced by pitchers such as Holland, McGee, Ottavino, and Qualls; those hurlers will be looking to return while others (Marquez, Carlos Estevez, and Miguel Castro, if he clears waivers) will try to convert impressive raw stuff into effectiveness.

You could say the same of the bulk of the lineup, which has a nice overall blend of stars, solid pieces, and role players. There may be minor quibbles about the lefty-heavy outfield mix — top prospect Raimel Tapia also hits from the left side — and the catching mix is as unestablished as any in baseball. The organization, though, seems to believe in the current catching options. And overall, the the collection of position players seems to be a good one.

Deal Of Note

That includes Desmond, the presumptive first baseman. He ought to be fine there, after all. If he’s a slightly above-average hitter and great baserunner, as he has been, and perhaps adds some value with the glove, he should be a solid-enough performer for the position.

But this is a club that enters the season with a record-setting $120MM payroll — prior to 2015, it had never even reached nine figures — and designs on more than competence. Desmond was the marquee addition, clearly. And teams generally accept that when they sign long-term deals with free agents — at least, those that aren’t abnormally youthful — they’re accepting that they’ll pay a premium later (in the post-prime years of the deal) in order to get a quality, established player on the MLB roster right away.

While we’ve heard plenty of explanations from the Rockies, and from observers, as to why Desmond will work at first base, it still seems an odd decision. Even granting that Desmond is a uniquely high-character player and that he could at least be an average hitter for the slugger’s position (though he’s only a league-average hitter for his career), the move represents a relatively enormous investment that just doesn’t come with much upside up front.

If the Rockies were so enamored of Desmond as a player and a person, perhaps the team ought to have lined up a trade for one of its left-handed-hitting outfielders. It’s reasonable to think that’d have had a reasonable chance of resulting in a pitching upgrade, at least. And it would have allowed the Rockies to take advantage of a free-agent market that was selling quality power bats for next to nothing.

While there’s admittedly some hindsight involved in that assessment, the awkward fit (barring trade) was apparent from the moment the deal was struck. And while Desmond’s future flexibility does carry value, but certainly not enough for that consideration alone to drive the signing. There’s still every chance that the contract will work out for Colorado. But every free-agent signing is a bet, and this one doesn’t seem particularly well-conceived.

Overview

This might all work out; even if not, it’s hard to criticize the Rockies too harshly for pushing some chips in. It’s always good to see a moribund franchise up its investment at an opportune time. And the unique circumstances of Coors Field certainly factor in, too, albeit in hard-to-discern ways. But from here, it doesn’t seem as if the organization got quite as much bang for its hundred-million bucks as perhaps it should have.

What’s your take on the Rockies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Rockies' winter?

C 37% (643)
B 36% (624)
D 15% (265)
F 7% (122)
A 6% (103)

Total votes: 1,757

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By Connor Byrne | at April 2, 2017 3:06pm CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Mariners took steps toward relevance last season, when they finished with the seventh-best record and the fourth-best run differential in the American League. Still, at 86-76, they fell short of the playoffs for a major league-worst 15th year in a row. Team brass is ready to draw that ignominious streak to a close in 2017. Amid an aggressive, trade-packed winter, general manager Jerry Dipoto proclaimed in January that the Mariners are “plainly” in “‘win-now’ mode.” Then, just after the start of spring training in February, club president Kevin Mather declared, “It is time to play October baseball in Seattle.”

Major League Signings

Marc Rzepczynski, LHP: Two years, $11MM
Casey Fien, RHP: One year, $1MM
Total spend: $12MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired SS Jean Segura, OF Mitch Haniger and LHP Zac Curtis for RHP Taijuan Walker and SS Ketel Marte
Acquired OF Jarrod Dyson from Royals for RHP Nate Karns
Acquired OF Mallex Smith and RHP Shae Simmons from Braves for LHPs Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows
Acquired LHP Drew Smyly from Rays for OF Mallex Smith, IF Carlos Vargas and LHP Ryan Yarbrough
Acquired RHP Yovani Gallardo from Orioles for OF Seth Smith
Acquired C Carlos Ruiz from Dodgers for LHP Vidal Nuno
Acquired IF/OF Danny Valencia from Athletics for RHP Paul Blackburn
Acquired RHP Chris Heston from Giants for a player to be named later
Acquired LHP James Pazos from Yankees for RHP Zack Littell
Acquired IF/OF Richie Shaffer and IF/OF Taylor Motter from Rays for 1B Dalton Kelly and RHPs Andrew Kittredge and Dylan Thompson
Acquired RHPs Rob Whalen and Max Povse from Braves for OF Alex Jackson and Tyler Pike
Acquired RHP Chase De Jong from Dodgers for IF Drew Jackson and RHP Aneurys Zabala
Acquired OF Joey Curletta from Phillies for LHP/RHP Pat Venditte
Acquired LHP Dillon Overton from Athletics for C Jason Goldstein
Acquired a player to be named later or cash from Rays for C Jesus Sucre
Claimed C Tuffy Gosewisch off waivers from Braves
Claimed LHP Dean Kiekhefer off waivers from Cardinals
Claimed RHP Ryan Weber off waivers from Braves

Notable Minor League Signings

Mark Lowe, Gordon Beckham, Brad Mills, Micah Owings, Ryan Cook, Steven Baron, Kyle Waldrop, Josh Judy, Jean Machi, Nick Hagadone, Caleb Cotham

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Walker, Marte, Karns, Nuno, Seth Smith, Nori Aoki, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Adam Lind, Drew Storen, Chris Iannetta, Tom Wilhelmsen, Arquimedes Caminero

Mariners Roster; Mariners Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

In his second offseason at the helm of the Mariners, Dipoto swung a whopping 15 trades, several of which figure to hugely impact the team’s chances this year. None should carry as much weight as the late-November, four-major leaguer swap that saw the Mariners give up high-potential right-hander Taijuan Walker and unproven shortstop Ketel Marte for a fellow shortstop who has shown flashes of brilliance, Jean Segura, and untested outfielder Mitch Haniger.

In theory, Segura shouldn’t have difficulty serving as an upgrade over Marte, whose .259/.287/.323 batting line in 466 plate appearances made him one of the majors’ least valuable shortstops last season. However, Segura posted a near-identical line as a Brewer from 2014-15 (.252/.285/.331 in 1,141 PAs) before stunningly breaking out in Arizona last year. His success as a Diamondback came thanks in part to better pitch selection (he swung at fewer pitches than ever, both in and out of the strike zone, yet still made contact at a rate in line with career norms) and an emphasis on elevating the ball. Segura’s ground-ball rate dropped roughly 6 percent from the previous two years, while both his fly ball and line drive marks rose. That led to more hard contact and a sizable uptick in power, evidenced by career bests in home runs (20) and ISO (.181), and a stellar .319/.368/.499 line in 694 trips to the plate.

Both Segura’s production with the bat and his baserunning prowess (he stole 33 of 43 bags and ranked 15th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric) made him of the premier second basemen in baseball in 2016. Now, with superstar Robinson Cano locking down the keystone, Segura will play shortstop in Seattle. The 27-year-old has plenty of experience at short, where he lined up in Milwaukee and graded as a passable defender (two Defensive Runs Saved, minus-10.6 Ultimate Zone Rating in 4,253 innings). Segura’s work at the plate will draw more scrutiny, though, and if the gains he made last year prove sustainable, he and Cano will give the Mariners an elite middle infield.

As the most established players in the deal, Segura and Walker understandably drew the lion’s share of attention when Seattle and Arizona consummated the trade. But don’t sleep on Haniger, who will open 2017 as the Mariners’ right fielder. Haniger, 26, got his first taste of major league action last season and hit a forgettable .229/.309/.404 in 123 PAs, though he wasn’t necessarily overmatched (he did log approximately average strikeout and walk rates to go with a slightly above-average ISO). Plus, Haniger has a history of raking at the minor league level. At Triple-A Reno last year, he slashed a video game-like .341/.428/.670 in 312 attempts. It’s true that Haniger posted those numbers in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but wRC+ indicates his line was an incredible 85 percent better than the PCL average. Dipoto took notice.

“By the numbers, (Haniger) was able to show that he was the best offensive player (last year) in the minor leagues at any level,” Dipoto told Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune in January. “He’s also a right-handed batter, and we acquired him for that reason. Mitch is also the one that brings with him a skill set that includes power, and he’s got on-base ability.”

While it’s up in the air how much Haniger will boost the Mariners’ offense this season, odds are he’ll at least help their defense. Back in November, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) wrote that Haniger is a “good athlete” with “good range” and an “above-average arm.” The Mariners lacked quality defense in right last year, when their primary options – Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz – combined for minus-10 DRS and a minus-9.1 UZR.

Seattle was even worse off in left, where Nori Aoki and Smith racked up minus-12 DRS and a minus-10.3 UZR between them. Those two are now out of the organization, and another trade acquisition, ex-Royal Jarrod Dyson, will take over as the Mariners’ No. 1 left fielder. The pickup of Dyson typifies the Mariners’ win-today philosophy – the 32-year-old is only signed through this season, while the player they gave up for him, 29-year-old righty Nate Karns, is controllable through the 2020 campaign.

In previewing Seattle’s offseason in October, I wrote, “Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively.” Dyson certainly checks two of those boxes. He’s not much of a hitter (.260/.325/.353 line in 1,539 lifetime PAs), but his defensive and baserunning excellence should combine to make him a valuable addition for the Mariners. Going back to 2012, the first year in which he saw extensive big league action, Dyson has amassed 53 Defensive Runs Saved and a 55.5 UZR – both of which rank among the league’s top seven outfielders over the past half-decade. On the base paths, the speedster swiped between 26 and 36 bags in each of the previous five seasons. He also finished last year with a 5.4 BsR, which placed 19th in the majors.

The other notable newcomer to the Mariners’ starting lineup is Danny Valencia, whom they acquired from the AL West rival Athletics for nondescript pitching prospect Paul Blackburn. The plan was for the right-handed Valencia to platoon with the lefty-hitting Dan Vogelbach at first base, but the former will instead open the season as the everyday option there in the wake of the latter’s minor league demotion. It’s possible the Mariners’ faith in Vogelbach will come back to haunt them. Their offseason belief that he was ready for the majors stopped them from pursuing affordable left-handed hitters like Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss and Pedro Alvarez, any of whom could have teamed with Valencia to form a satisfactory platoon. On the other hand, Valencia won’t need a partner if his recent success against same-handed pitchers continues. Once unusable versus righties, the 32-year-old combined for a .795 OPS in 602 PAs against them from 2015-16. With his performance against lefties factored in, Valencia quietly hit a tremendous .288/.346/.477 in 895 PAs during the previous two years. That type of production would certainly play at first, where the Mariners will try to hide the defensively challenged third baseman/outfielder.

Click to continue…

Along with addressing the Mariners’ group of position players through trades, Dipoto also made deals he hopes will upgrade a rotation that underwhelmed last season. Dipoto brought in two new starters, Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo, the first of whom is the far more intriguing addition. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Smyly won’t debut until at least mid-May because of a flexor strain, which isn’t the first troubling injury of his career. Back in 2015, a partially torn left labrum limited Smyly to just 12 starts, though he and the Rays opted against surgery and instead chose rehabilitation through rest. That decision worked out nicely, but MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum later found that Smyly carries a fairly risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery.

Nearly three months before Smyly’s latest injury, the Mariners took a circuitous route to land the left-hander, first sending one of their best prospects, southpaw Luiz Gohara, to Atlanta in a package that brought outfielder Mallex Smith and reliever Shae Simmons to Seattle. Smith’s tenure with the Mariners didn’t even last a day, as they immediately used him as the principal piece to acquire Smyly from Tampa Bay. Dipoto was thrilled afterward, saying that he “probably spent more time through the course of the offseason trying to acquire Drew Smyly than any other player.”

Although Smyly was essentially the epitome of mediocrity last season (4.88 ERA, 4.49 FIP in 175 innings), he did show high-end potential over the two prior seasons. As a Tiger and Ray from 2014-15, Smyly pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 8.59 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9 across 212 1/3 frames. Compared to 2015, Smyly wasn’t fooling many hitters last season, when his K/9 fell from 10.4 to 8.57 and he generated fewer swings on pitches out of the strike zone. However, there’s hope that a notable increase in velocity could foster a turnaround (or it might have helped lead to the flexor strain). After working at 90 to 91 mph with his fastball from 2012-16, Smyly hung around the 92 mph to 94 mph range during the World Baseball Classic. If Smyly returns without any ill effects and those velocity gains stick, he could give the Mariners terrific production over the summer.

The 31-year-old Gallardo was once a terrific starter himself, but he has trended downward in recent seasons and is now coming off a career-worst campaign. In 118 innings with the Orioles, Gallardo logged a 5.42 ERA and, with 6.48 K/9 and 4.65 BB/9, put up the league’s third-worst K/BB ratio (1.39) among pitchers who threw at least 110 frames. It’s debatable, then, whether the Mariners were right to bother with Gallardo when they could have signed someone like now-Royal Jason Hammel, whom they pursued in free agency. Regardless, the Mariners didn’t sacrifice much for Gallardo – only Seth Smith – and are left to hope the righty will revive his career this year. Two reasons for optimism: A shoulder injury may have been a key contributor to the now-healthy Gallardo’s ineffectiveness, and Baltimore was a poor fit for him. Not only is Camden Yards a hitters’ haven, but the Orioles’ dreadful defensive outfield didn’t do any favors for Gallardo, who yielded more fly balls than usual last season. Conversely, the Mariners’ outfield of Haniger, Dyson and Leonys Martin isn’t going to let playable fly balls land all that often, and the cavernous Safeco Field is a forgiving environment for pitchers. The home stadium switch won’t necessarily be a cure-all – it’s worth noting that Gallardo was also woeful on the road last season – but the defensive change should at least prove beneficial.

Gallardo averaged just over five innings per start in each of the previous two seasons, so the Mariners’ bullpen ought to see a fair amount of action on days he takes the hill. It just so happens that they only dipped into free agency for relievers, signing southpaw Marc Rzepczynski and righty Casey Fien. Rzepczynski got the bigger contract, and even though it’s not exactly onerous ($11MM over two years), it does look like an overpayment compared to the cheaper guarantees fellow lefties Jerry Blevins (Mets) and Boone Logan (Indians) settled for later in the offseason. For the most part, the 31-year-old Rzepczynski’s only real use has been against lefties, whom he has held to a paltry .219/.291/.298 line in his career (righties have slashed .275/.377/.431).

Fien, whom the Mariners handed a relatively meager $1MM guarantee, was tough on all hitters as a member of the Twins from 2012-15, a stretch in which he held righties to a .228/.259/.361 output and limited lefties to a .240/.283/.402 line. Fien also pitched to a 3.54 ERA, registered 7.93 K/9 against 1.57 BB/9 and only allowed home runs on 8.4 percent of fly balls during that 223 2/3-inning span. But home runs against the fly ball-heavy Fien skyrocketed last season (24.5 percent), leading to a 5.49 ERA across 39 1/3 frames with the Twins and Dodgers. That happened in spite of an increase in velocity, a career-best K/9 (8.01), a more-than-respectable BB/9 (2.29) and the second-highest swinging-strike rate of Fien’s career (12.3 percent). So, there are reasons to hope for a revival from the 33-year-old.

Questions Remaining

Uncertainty abounds in the Mariners’ rotation, which is set to include Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Gallardo and, for now, uninspiring swingman Ariel Miranda (trade acquisitions Chris Heston, Robert Whalen and Dillon Overton are also on hand as depth). That doesn’t look like a better quintet than last year’s group that featured Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton, Walker and Karns at times.

Once among the game’s foremost aces, Hernandez produced like a mid-rotation type in 2015 and then experienced even more of a drop-off last season, the first year since 2007 in which he failed to reach the 200-inning mark. While it’s possible that a strained calf was largely to blame for Hernandez’s relatively ordinary 2016, he wasn’t his usual self even before suffering the injury in late May. Although Hernandez posted a 2.86 ERA in 63 innings, a so-so K/9 (7.56) and a below-par BB/9 (3.69) indicated he had fortune on his side. After returning toward the end of July, he totaled 90 1/3 more frames and logged an ugly ERA (4.48) that accompanied even less impressive strikeout and walk rates per nine (6.93 and 3.87, respectively). Hernandez experienced a velocity drop along the way, and his swinging-strike and ground-ball rates hit their lowest levels since 2011. Signs are pointing to this being a real decline for the soon-to-be 31-year-old workhorse, who has 2,415 major league innings under his belt. In an effort to regain both his velocity and his past form, Hernandez went through “tough,” muscle-building workouts during the offseason. He bulked up from 207 pounds to 224, and early indications regarding his velocity are somewhat encouraging.

Like Hernandez, Iwakuma is coming off an uncharacteristically average season. Given that he’ll turn 36 next month, it might be unwise to expect the Iwakuma of 2012-15 to return. During that four-year stretch, Iwakuma combined for a 3.17 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 1.75 BB/9 and a 50.1 percent ground-ball rate. Iwakuma fell off in each of those categories last season (4.12 ERA, 6.65 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 40.8 percent grounder rate), though he did throw the second-most innings of his career (199). If healthy, he’ll at least continue as a respectable starter, but as with Hernandez, his days as a front-line type could be over.

While Hernandez and Iwakuma seem to be trending downward, Paxton’s stock is rising, and he has the potential to give the Mariners a much-needed top-of-the-rotation arm. The southpaw averaged an outstanding 96.7 mph on his fastball last season, placing him below only Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi among starters who threw at least 120 innings. That was the latest positive development for a pitcher who has consistently recorded positive results since debuting in 2013, having compiled a 3.43 ERA and 3.32 FIP in 50 starts. The main question with the 28-year-old Paxton centers on durability, as he has never tossed more than 171 2/3 innings in a season (he did that last year between the majors and minors). Given the makeup of their season-opening rotation, Seattle’s clearly going to need Paxton to take more steps forward this year.

The Mariners could also use a full season of quality production from catcher Mike Zunino, who encouraged at both the minor and major league levels last season. The 2012 third overall pick had easily his best year offensively with the Mariners, albeit over just 192 PAs, as he hit .207/.318/.470. Zunino continued his high-strikeout, low-contact ways, but he helped offset those issues by increasing his walk rate to 10.9 percent (it was at just 5.1 percent from 2013-15) and hitting for far more power (ISO in 2016: .262; ISO from 2013-15: .160). The 26-year-old isn’t going to continue swatting 23.1 percent of fly balls out of the ballpark, as he did last season, but maintaining some of his patience and power gains from then would still give the Mariners a capable hitter behind the plate. Zunino also brings value as a defender, having graded well as a pitch framer and thrown out a league-average amount of would-be base stealers thus far in his career. In the event that Zunino’s 2016 was a fluke, the Mariners did bring in a solid backup in the highly respected Carlos Ruiz, who was Dipoto’s first offseason trade acquisition.

Overview

For a win-now team, the Smyly injury is an obvious setback, but there’s still an above-average amount of talent on hand. Led by Cano, Cruz and Kyle Seager, the Mariners should again bring a respectable offense to the table. However, the attack probably won’t be as potent as the one that ranked sixth in runs and second in wRC+ a year ago, when the departed Seth Smith, Gutierrez and Aoki each provided sturdy production at the plate. The Mariners’ group of position players looks better in general, though, as Dipoto rightly emphasized improving the team’s defense and baserunning. Meanwhile, the starting staff is a question mark, yet the Mariners are in possession of what should be a good bullpen (led by the great Edwin Diaz) to help take some of the pressure off the rotation.

There’s pressure on the organization as a whole, given both the playoff drought and management’s desire to end it immediately. The roster includes a slew of players who are over 30 years old, including integral contributors in Cano, Cruz, Dyson, Hernandez and Iwakuma (Seager will turn 30 in November), and the Mariners are set for a franchise-record Opening Day payroll near $155MM. Further, considering the Mariners have the third-worst farm system in the majors, according to ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended), Dipoto’s myriad offseason maneuverings must pay dividends in 2017. Seattle’s over-30 core players probably aren’t going to get any more effective as they age, so the time is indeed now for a playoff run.

What’s your take on the Mariners’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Mariners' winter?

B 57% (710)
A 26% (323)
C 13% (167)
D 2% (27)
F 1% (17)

Total votes: 1,244

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By Jason Martinez | at March 31, 2017 10:34pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

While the rebuilding Padres still owe a ton of money to high-priced veterans Matt Kemp and James Shields, who were traded away last season, the players on the current team will make approximately $30MM in 2017. That’s less than the salary of Clayton Kershaw, who they’ll face off against on Opening Day and likely several more times during the season. It’s no surprise that they’re the favorite to land the No. 1 pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft, but that’s all part of the plan.

Major League Signings

Trevor Cahill, SP: One year, $1.75MM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP: One year, $1.75MM
Clayton Richard, SP One year, $1.75MM (re-signed)
Jered Weaver, SP: One year, $3MM
Total spend: $8.25MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Erick Aybar, Collin Cowgill, Hector Sanchez, Craig Stammen, Brett Wallace

Trades And Claims

Traded C Derek Norris to Nationals for P Pedro Avila
Claimed P Tyrell Jenkins from Reds
Claimed P Zach Lee from Mariners
Lost RP Leonel Campos off waivers to Blue Jays

Rule 5 Draft

Selected INF Allen Cordoba from Cardinals
Selected P Justin Haley from Red Sox; traded to Brewers
Acquired C Luis Torrens from Reds via Yankees
Acquired RHP Miguel Diaz from Twins via Brewers

Extensions

1B Wil Myers: Six years, $83MM, plus $20MM club option in 2023 ($1MM buyout)
2B/3B Yangervis Solarte: Two years, $7.5MM, plus $5.5MM club option in 2019 ($750K buyout) and $8MM club option in 2020 ($750K buyout)

Notable Losses

Alexi Amarista, Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Adam Rosales, Tyson Ross, Carlos Villanueva

Needs Addressed

Despite having one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres are light on pitching prospects who are ready to contribute at the Major League level in 2017. With a talented (if largely unproven) core of young position players, led by first baseman Wil Myers, and a strong bullpen, the top priority of this offseason was to fill out the starting rotation with inexpensive veterans who can eat innings and possibly pitch well enough to draw trade interest.

At a cost of just over $8MM, they were able to fill four rotation spots for the upcoming season by signing free agents Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver to one-year deals. This rotation won’t make them a contender or even a .500 team. But each has experienced a good level of Major League success and should be able to keep games from getting out of hand on a consistent basis. At least that’s what the Padres are hoping for.

Cahill was once on his way to being one of the better young pitchers in baseball—he finished 9th in the AL Cy Young race in 2010—but his career quickly went south. He bounced back in 2016 with a terrific season out of the ‘pen for the World Champion Cubs and now the Padres are giving the 29-year-old a chance to prove he can maintain that success while returning to a starting role. Chacin, also 29 years old and a once-promising pitching star for the Rockies, is trying to resurrect his career with a return to the NL West. He had a strong finish to the 2016 season (0.75 ERA over last four starts) and has a strong track record against the Padres’ division opponents. Richard signed with the Padres late last season after being released by the Cubs and impressed with a 2.52 ERA over 53.2 innings. He has not started more than nine games in a season since 2013, the last year of a four-season stint with the Padres. In Weaver, the Padres brought in a former ace who is trying to succeed with a low-80’s fastball.

Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 success story in 2016, will be the No. 5 starter, although he’ll likely have an innings limit after logging less than 150 innings as a rookie. Former prospects Jarred Cosart, Tyrell Jenkins and Zach Lee could also work their way into the mix at some point, as will rookies Dinelson Lamet and Walker Lockett. The Padres’ pair of elite pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza and Cal Quantril, are likely slated for High-A and won’t reach San Diego anytime soon.

The team’s highly suspect rotation will likely be one of, if not the worst, in baseball. But when they do hand a lead over to the bullpen, as rare as that might be, the Padres should be able to hold on for the win on most occasions. If Carter Capps can return to his pre-injury form—he had a 1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 16.8 K/9 in 31 innings in 2015 before an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery—the Padres could have themselves quite an effective group of late-inning arms. Along with Capps, who is expected to start the season on the DL, closer Brandon Maurer and lefty setup men Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand will all be highly-coveted by playoff contenders and could prove to be valuable trade chips in July. Veteran Craig Stammen, signed to a Minor League contract in the offseason, could also end up attracting trade interest if his spring performance (11.2 IP, ER, 12 K) is any indication of a return to form.

While the Padres are mostly sticking with their young position players, they did make one notable offseason addition in veteran Erick Aybar, who came to camp on a Minor League deal and ended up beating out Luis Sardiñas for the starting shortstop job. He’ll be yet another one-year stop-gap—Clint Barmes and Alexei Ramirez were the team’s Opening Day shortstops in 2015 and 2016, respectively—as Preller continues his search for the team’s shortstop of the future.

Aybar’s double-play partner will be Yangervis Solarte, who is shifting over from third base, while Ryan Schimpf (.533 slugging percentage in 330 MLB plate appearances) and former 1st Round draft pick Cory Spangenberg are competing for time at the hot corner. Top prospects and NL Rookie of the Year candidates Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, who each had late-season MLB auditions in 2016, are expected to step into regular roles in the Padres’ outfield with Jabari Blash, Alex Dickerson—once he returns from the disabled list—and Travis Jankowski each getting plenty of opportunities to prove that they should be a part of the team’s future.

Behind the plate, Padres fans will finally get to see Austin Hedges, one of the most highly-touted defensive catching prospects in recent memory, on a regular basis. After spending 2015 as Derek Norris‘ backup and most of last season in the minors, he’ll get the bulk of playing time in 2017 with Norris out of the picture, Christian Bethancourt splitting time between the bench and the bullpen, and 20-year-old Rule 5 draftee Luis Torrens expected to mostly watch and learn, having never played a game above Low-A ball.

More analysis after the break …

Questions Remaining

There’s not much sense breaking down the problems on the roster from the perspective of competitiveness in 2017. Clearly, that’s not the organization’s priority at the moment. The upcoming season, rather, will represent a chance to continue adding talent, drive the development of young players at the MLB level, and continue gathering information to inform the team’s long-term plans.

The Padres won’t know how close they are to contending until the 2017 season is winding down and they can assess how much progress their young roster has made. By September, they should have a better idea of which players they want to commit to — or even sign to long-term contracts. Margot and Renfroe have that potential, as does Hedges, if he can provide some power to go along with elite defense. Perdomo could also work his way into the conversation if he can build off of last year’s success.

While Capps and Maurer are only 26 years old and could also be candidates for long-term deals, late-inning relievers have more value on a playoff-contending team. They’ll be among the players drawing attention from opposing scouts. Trade rumors will surround this team from the onset of the season. If their veteran pitchers are performing well—keep in mind that the Braves traded Chacin to the Angels after five mostly very good starts in 2016—Preller won’t hesitate to make a deal.

[Related — San Diego Padres Depth Chart]

Deal Of Note

The Padres signed Myers, their “face of the franchise” first baseman, to a six-year contract extension in January. Including a club option in 2023, the 26-year-old, who finished two homers and two stolen bases shy of a 30-30 season in 2016, is now under team control through his age-32 season. He’s guaranteed $83MM with a chance to make $102MM.

Myers has embraced his leadership role and completely bought in to what the team is doing.

“The vision that (the Padres) have is something that I’m definitely behind,” Myers said at a press conference to announce his new contract. “It’s something that I really feel is something special here in San Diego. The position players that we have right now are really good. People don’t know about them. They’re not household names yet, but they’re very talented and will be very good players at the big league level.”

Signing Myers to an extension—and not trading him before he developed into a star—is an indication that ownership is committed to a realistic plan that could put them in position to be competitive sometime around 2019 and beyond. In addition to giving Myers the largest contract in team history, they’ve also invested heavily on amateur signings in recent years, while Preller has continued to stockpile high-upside talent in trades.

Overview

A Padres team that hasn’t played a meaningful game in years still drew close to 30,000 fans per game in 2016. Those fans aren’t likely to watch their team play a meaningful game in 2017, either. They will, however, get to watch what could end up being one of the best group of young Padres position players since Roberto Alomar and Benito Santiago were in the same lineup as Tony Gwynn in the late 80’s.

What’s your take on the Padres’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Padres' winter?

B 34% (391)
C 26% (304)
D 15% (171)
A 14% (166)
F 11% (129)

Total votes: 1,161

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres Uncategorized

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | at March 31, 2017 1:29pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Orioles bought back a number of familiar faces for the 2017 team, most notably the league’s top home run hitter.

Major League Signings

Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF: Three years, $37.5MM
Welington Castillo, C: Two years, $13MM (second year is a $7MM player option)
Total spend: $50.5MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired OF Seth Smith from Mariners for SP Yovani Gallardo and cash
Acquired LHP Vidal Nuno from Dodgers for RHP Ryan Moseley
Acquired RHP Alec Asher from Phillies for a player to be named later
Acquired LHP Richard Bleier from Yankees for cash or a player to be named later
Acquired RHP Logan Verrett from Mets for cash considerations
Acquired RHP Gabriel Ynoa from Mets for cash considerations
Selected OF Aneury Tavarez from Red Sox and OF Anthony Santander from Indians in the Rule 5 Draft (Tavarez has since been placed on waivers)

Notable Minor League Signings

Pedro Alvarez, Robert Andino, Andrew Bellatti, Michael Bourn, Alex Castellanos, Michael Choice, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Craig Gentry, Johnny Giavotella, Paul Janish, Chris Johnson, Steve Johnson, Jesus Montero, Tomo Ohka, Logan Schafer, Zach Stewart

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Gallardo, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce, Tommy Hunter, Brian Duensing, T.J. McFarland, Drew Stubbs, Vance Worley, Christian Walker

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

After a giant spending splurge in the 2015-16 offseason, the Orioles quieted things down with a more traditional Dan Duquette winter. The Orioles executive VP of baseball operations focused mostly on his usual tactics of lower-level transactions and waiting until later in the offseason to enact major business.

The waiting game may have allowed Baltimore to save a significant chunk of money in negotiations with Mark Trumbo. The two sides were connected in talks for much of the offseason, with the O’s reportedly making Trumbo an offer in the range of $52MM-$55MM over three or four guaranteed years but then pulling that offer a couple of weeks later.

Trumbo was said to be looking for a deal north of $70MM, though the slugger’s market was hampered by a number of factors — draft pick compensation tied to rejecting the qualifying offer, a number of other big 1B/OF/DH types available in free agency, and a general league-wide downturn in offseason spending due, in part, to the new collective bargaining agreement’s stricter luxury tax rules. Trumbo drew some interest from the A’s and the Rockies, though with apparently no other major suitors stepping forward, he returned to the Orioles for three years and $37.5MM.

Trumbo thrived in his first season at Camden Yards, clubbing a league-high 47 homers and hitting .256/.316/.533 over 667 plate appearances. With the Orioles building up a lot of corner outfield depth, it looks as if the majority of Trumbo’s bats will come as a DH this season, so his shaky glovework will no longer be dragging down his value.

Seth Smith is the biggest new face in the Baltimore outfield, joining the team in a trade that sent rotation disappointment Yovani Gallardo to Seattle. Smith is himself a question mark defensively (-16.6 UZR/150 and -7 Defensive Runs Saved last season, after a career of average corner outfield grades) but he’ll only be in the lineup against right-handed pitching. The Orioles are intending to platoon both corner outfield between left-handed bats Smith and Hyun Soo Kim and right-swinging Joey Rickard and Craig Gentry, with the latter duo providing more speed and defense than pop at the plate.

Trumbo and Smith ended up being the answers to the Orioles’ search for outfield and DH help this winter, a search that led the team to check in on such names as Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Mike Napoli, Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, and perhaps even Jose Bautista (Duquette’s unusual public statement describing Bautista as a poor fit in Baltimore notwithstanding). Gentry’s emergence as a viable big league roster piece has also been a boost for the O’s, with Gentry enjoying a good spring as he rebounds from two injury-plagued years.

Gentry is one of many notable MLB veterans signed to minor league deals this winter, a list that includes both newcomers to the organization (such as Jesus Montero, Johnny Giavotella and Gentry himself) and re-signed Orioles like Michael Bourn, Paul Janish and Pedro Alvarez. Assuming the bulk of these veterans remain in the organization rather than opt out, the O’s now have some experienced depth on hand should injuries develop, or if a change if needed within the many moving parts of the outfield platoon.

The Orioles had some light talks with Matt Wieters as their longtime catcher’s free agent wait extended into February, though really, the chances of a reunion between the two sides ended when Welington Castillo was signed in December. Castillo ended up being rather an unexpected solution to Baltimore’s catching search, as the Diamondbacks surprised many by non-tendering the veteran backstop rather than pay him a healthy (an MLBTR-projected $5.9MM) salary in his final year of arbitration.

When Castillo hit the market, the O’s turned away from such rumored targets as Nick Hundley and Chris Iannetta to ink Castillo to a deal that could turn into a two-year, $13MM commitment if Castillo exercises his 2018 player option. Top prospect Chance Sisco could be ready for the majors as soon as this summer, so Castillo provides Baltimore with a short-term veteran behind the plate until Sisco is ready.

Questions Remaining

For all the Orioles’ depth options, they’re still rather light on right-handed hitting outfielders, given Rickard’s inexperience and Gentry’s injury history. Trumbo can play the outfield in a pinch, of course, though that leaves the DH spot open (possibly for Alvarez). Steve Pearce, who left in free agency to join the Blue Jays, would’ve helped in this regard as a lefty-mashing bat who could provide depth in both corner spots, not to mention first or second base.

Angel Pagan was reportedly in agreement with the O’s on a major league contract this winter before he failed the team’s infamously difficult physical. Though the switch-hitting Pagan has more recently hit better from the left side of the plate, he could have been a more stable part-time addition than Gentry or Michael Choice.

Gallardo didn’t deliver much in his lone season in an Orioles uniform, and the fact that the O’s were able to save a bit of money on Gallardo’s contract and obtain a useful asset in Smith already makes that trade an on-paper victory. Still, Gallardo’s departure further thins out an already-questionable rotation. The Orioles’ lack of pitching depth is already being tested since Chris Tillman will start the season on the DL with a shoulder issue, and while the injury isn’t thought to be too serious, Tillman is expected to miss as much as a month of action.

Beyond the solid Kevin Gausman, the Orioles will deploy Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley in search of bounce-back seasons and former top prospect Dylan Bundy is finally tapped for a rotation job after years of arm problems. The O’s have a host of candidates to fill in for Tillman (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Chris Lee, Alec Asher, Gabriel Ynoa, or Logan Verrett) though this list is much longer on potential than on any sort of established track record in the big leagues. The fact that Asher was just acquired so close to the end of Spring Training may indicate that the O’s aren’t satisfied with their internal options. The team can make do until Tillman gets back, though pitching may again be an issue if there are any further injuries or performance struggles in the rest of the rotation.

The lack of any significant pitching upgrades stands out as the only real question of Baltimore’s offseason. The club is obviously counting on Bundy to live up to his promise and on Jimenez/Miley to pitch more effectively, though that’s quite a bit of risk for a team that plans on contending in 2017. The Orioles have been consistent postseason threats in the Duquette era despite a lack of top-shelf pitching, yet while one could say that they haven’t been in need of top arms to consistently win, the counter-argument is that this lack of a truly strong rotation has held the Orioles back from true consideration as World Series contenders.

Looking at the bullpen, Baltimore is going with an interesting collection of young arms to back up its dominant top four of Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and Darren O’Day. Vidal Nuno, Donnie Hart and Jayson Aquino are all lefties, and while the Orioles could keep two in their pen (since Britton obviously won’t be used for situation work), that third leftover arm could potentially be a trade chip, in my opinion.

Speaking of bullpen trades, the Orioles at least considered the idea of moving Brach in a deal for an outfielder this winter. Brach drew interest from the Mets as part of the Granderson/Bruce talks and the Braves also asked about Brach’s services, with the O’s wanting Mallex Smith in return. Clearly the Orioles had a pretty big price tag on Brach’s services, though it’s interesting to speculate about the team’s long-term bullpen plans if Brach was a potential trade chip and extension talks with Britton only seemed to go as far as two years with a club option.

The even larger extension question looming over the O’s is Manny Machado, as the two sides reportedly didn’t have much discussion about keeping the superstar beyond his scheduled entry into the free agent market after the 2018 season. Quite a bit of money comes off the Orioles’ books next winter (Jimenez, Tillman, Smith and potentially Castillo and J.J. Hardy) so the club could be waiting to address those potential roster holes before fully exploring the $300MM+ commitment required to lock up Machado.

Deal Of Note

Despite 22 homers and a solid .249/.322/.504 slash line in 376 PA last season, Alvarez ended up settling for a minor league contract in a familiar environment. The cold market for sluggers played a factor, though Alvarez has also not brought much to the table aside from power over his seven-year career, delivering low averages and OBP numbers as well as poor defensive metrics as a first and third baseman.

With these limitations in mind, Alvarez looked to improve his versatility by working out as an outfielder this winter. Alvarez isn’t a speedster, though he also isn’t quite a lumbering slugger type; as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Alvarez has been an above-average baserunner in each of the last two seasons.

The Orioles made outfield defense a priority this winter, though as shown in the past with Trumbo, Kim and now even Smith, the team is willing to put up with some degree of subpar glovework if a player can hit. It remains to be seen if Alvarez can viably handle corner outfield duty, though if not, he is stuck behind Trumbo, Chris Davis, and rookie Trey Mancini in the first base and DH mix.

Overview

The Orioles didn’t feel the need to overhaul a roster that was good enough to win a wild card berth, and given Duquette’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s likely that at least one or two of his under-the-radar moves will prove to be quality additions. The real heavy lifting for the team may come next winter when, as mentioned earlier, they’ll face some big free agent departures and Machado and Britton will both be one year away from the open market.

How would you evaluate the Orioles’ winter moves? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Orioles offseason?

C 40% (853)
B 35% (755)
D 13% (271)
F 6% (131)
A 6% (120)

Total votes: 2,130

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

By Jeff Todd | at March 29, 2017 7:31am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Faced with the daunting prospect of making up for the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins focused on bolstering their pitching staff in hopes of staging an elusive run at the postseason.

Major League Signings

Edinson Volquez, SP: two years, $22MM
Brad Ziegler, RP: two years, $16MM
Junichi Tazawa, RP: two years, $12MM
Jeff Locke, SP: one year, $3MM
A.J. Ellis, C: one year, $2.5MM
Dustin McGowan, RP: one year, $1.75MM
Total spend: $57.25MM.

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Dan Straily from Reds for SP Luis Castillo, SP/RP Austin Brice, OF Isaiah White
Acquired RP Severino Gonzalez from Phillies for PTBNL/cash
Claimed RP Elvis Araujo from Phillies (later released to pursue opportunity in Japan)

Options Exercised

Ichiro Suzuki, OF: $2MM (added $2MM club option for 2018)

Notable Minor League Signings

Brandon Barnes, Ramon Cabrera, Scott Copeland, Brandon Cunniff, Matt den Dekker, Stephen Fife, Javy Guerra, Ryan Jackson, Kyle Lobstein, Steve Lombardozzi, David Lough, Nick Maronde, Kelvin Marte, Tyler Moore, Caleb Thielbar

Extensions

Martin Prado, 3B: three years, $40MM (reported late in 2016 season)

Notable Losses

Andrew Cashner, Chris Johnson, Mike Dunn, Jeff Francoeur, Cole Gillespie, Jeff Mathis, Fernando Rodney

Marlins Roster; Marlins Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The Marlins pushed to contend in 2016, but as the campaign drew to a close, it seemed destined to be defined by on-field disappointment. Then came the unthinkable, late-season death of Fernandez at just 24 years of age. His loss continues to tell in myriad ways.

A move back toward stability, though, came not long after Fernandez’s passing, when the club reached agreement on a deal to keep third baseman Martin Prado off of the upcoming open market. It was hardly a bargain rate for the sturdy (if unspectacular) performer, but Miami clearly prioritized his steadying presence at third and in the clubhouse. Prado is entering his age-33 season, but is a well-balanced player who has compiled consecutive 3+ WAR campaigns.

The Prado deal kicked off the winter a little early, and signaled clearly that the Marlins were intent upon continuing to add to their controllable core. But it also represented the organization’s only significant move on the position-player side of the equation. Otherwise, the club brought back Ichiro Suzuki after his surprisingly productive season (or was it, really?) at 42 years of age. And a largely parallel change was made in the catching corps, with veteran A.J. Ellis stepping in for the departing Jeff Mathis.

From that point forward, it was all about arms. Mid-season trade acquisitions Andrew Cashner and Fernando Rodney were allowed to leave after disappointing tenures, and key setup lefty Mike Dunn found big money with the Rockies. In the aggregate, there were multiple openings in both the rotation and the bullpen.

Miami directed fairly significant investments to both sides of the pitching staff. The 2017 rotation will feature at least two new members. Edinson Volquez, 33, landed a two-year deal off of the free-agent market, while Dan Straily brings four years of control — the first at the league minimum — with him from the Reds. (When Colin Rea was shipped back to the Padres after coming down with an injury last summer, the Marlins lost the controllable arm they wanted but also got back the key prospect — Luis Castillo — used to get Straily.) If he can overcome biceps tendinitis, bounceback free-agent signee Jeff Locke could also factor in the rotation mix, though he may be slated for long relief duty once he returns from a biceps problem.

There are numerous new faces in the bullpen, too. Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa both join the late-inning mix on two-year deals, joining holdovers A.J. Ramos (the closer), Kyle Barraclough (who gives up gobs of walks but also generates tons of swinging strikes), and David Phelps (who was suddenly outstanding last year and is capable of throwing multiple innings). The Marlins held onto Dustin McGowan with a fairly low guarantee after he turned in 67 innings of 2.82 ERA ball. Also joining the 40-man as a depth piece was righty Severino Gonzalez.

Keep reading for more analysis …

Questions Remaining

The pitching staff has been rebuilt, but it is still full of questions. Among the preexisting starters, Wei-Yin Chen has the longest track record of success, but scuffled last year and missed time with an elbow injury. Tom Koehler is steady but has rarely veered far from his career 4.16 ERA. And there are growing questions about the sometimes-dominant Adam Conley, whose inconsistencies have come to the fore this spring. He’s fighting to hold of Jose Urena, who has been tagged for a 5.76 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 145 1/3 MLB innings over the past two seasons, and Justin Nicolino, who carries a 4.52 earned run average in his 153 1/3 frames since the start of 2015 with just 3.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Those latter two pitchers, along with Locke, representing the depth on hand.

Plus, it’s not as if the new additions are sure things. As addressed further below, Volquez and Straily don’t seem to hold out much promise of being more than back-of-the-rotation arms. There’s certainly something to be said for filling innings, but the Marlins lack much electricity in the staff — a fact which serves as yet another reminder of how badly Fernandez will be missed.

The club did also stake a value bet on Locke. He is still just 29 years of age and turned in 51 productive starts over 2013 and 2014, but he has struggled in the past two seasons — making him available to Miami for only a $3MM guarantee. Last year, Locke compiled a 5.44 ERA with ony 5.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9. He could well end up providing some useful frames, but in his case, too, there’s not exactly immense upside.

The bullpen seemingly holds more promise, with an interesting blend of high-strikeout arms and steady veterans. But it remains to be seen whether the club has enough on the left-handed side of the relief corps. Hunter Cervenka seems to be the top southpaw, but he scuffled upon arriving in Miami last year and hasn’t yet shown he has enough control to succeed in the majors. Non-roster invitees Kelvin Marte, Nick Maronde, and Caleb Thielbar make up the depth along with Nicolino. But as things stand, Miami seems slated to open the year with an all-righty bullpen.

All said, it seems the hope is for the pitching staff to do just enough to allow Miami’s talented slate of position players to shine. So long as the outfield stays healthy, it ought to be a quality unit; indeed, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton arguably carry as much upside as any trio in the game. So long as Prado heals up from his recent hamstring injury, he ought to provide value at the hot corner; the club will certainly hope for a bounceback from Dee Gordon at second; and J.T. Realmuto will look to build upon a strong 2016 season. Derek Dietrich carries a .270/.362/.438 batting line over the past two seasons and is a nice piece to have in a utility capacity. (He’ll likely open the year filling in for Prado at third.) Miguel Rojas doesn’t bring much offensively, but he won’t be relied upon too heavily as a reserve middle infielder.

There are some questions, though, at first and short. Justin Bour can definitely hit right-handed pitching; he owns a .271/.345/.494 batting line with the platoon advantage since cracking the majors. But he has been hapless in limited action against southpaws, hitting just .223/.273/.291 over 110 career plate appearances. Miami does have some backup plans in place — Realmuto may see time at first, and there’ll likely be a righty bench bat (Tyler Moore, perhaps) on hand — but the club is staking a fair bit on Bour’s ability to make strides. The Marlins could come to regret passing on an opportunity to add a more significant threat from a free-agent market that was loaded with lumbering sluggers, though perhaps the team could still look to make a late-spring move.

At shortstop, Adeiny Hechavarria remains a difficult player to gauge. Miami has long seemed to value him highly, though there was chatter recently that the club would consider dealing him — albeit at a price that didn’t seem particularly realistic. The metrics have caught up with the positive scouting reports on his glove, which is his carrying tool. He had turned in two-straight palatable seasons at the plate heading into 2016, seemingly putting all the pieces together in a solid 2 to 3-WAR 2015 campaign. While he improved in the K/BB department (moving up to a 6.0% walk rate and down to a 13.3% strikeout rate), though, his batting average on balls in play (.269) and isolated slugging (.075) fell last year, dragging his triple-slash down to an unsightly .236/.283/.311. If there’s cause for hope, perhaps it lies in the fact that he did post a personal-high 32.3% hard-hit ratio, though that was offset by a rise in flyballs that doesn’t match well with his skillset and home park. The shortstop position is both a near- and long-term question for the Fish.

Deals Of Note

The additions of Volquez and Straily seem cut from the same cloth. While the former was a free agent who commanded a fairly significant salary, and the latter was acquired in no small part due to the flexible control rights that attach, neither seems to hold much promise of top-of-the-rotation results.

Volquez, who’ll take the ball on Opening Day, does have some of the trappings of a top-end hurler. He is still delivering a fastball in his typical range of 93 to 94 mph, after all. But he doesn’t generate swings and misses like he did in his heyday and has averaged less than seven strikeouts per nine over the past three campaigns as a result. To be fair, he has tamped down on the free passes that once plagued him and generates grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. Volquez scuffled to a 5.37 ERA last year, though ERA estimators suggested he wasn’t quite so bad as that. Of course, those same analytical tools also cast some shade on the 3.04 and 3.55 marks that Volquez compiled over 2014 and 2015. SIERA, for instance, hasn’t valued the veteran as a sub-4.00 performer since 2010. All that being said, Volquez’s value is tied as much to his innings as it is to his quality. He has made over thirty starts in each of the past five seasons.

Straily, meanwhile, was freely available this time last year, yet commanded a fairly significant return after turning in a strong 2016 season in which he threw 191 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball. But he has a relatively undistinguished prior track record and was aided greatly last year by a .239 BABIP. Though he did post a strong 10.2% swinging-strike rate in 2016, and features a flyball-heavy approach that may be suited to spacious Marlins Park, Straily has long rated as a marginal performer by measure of the major ERA estimators. (Over his career, Straily carries a 4.78 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, and 4.48 SIERA.)

In an age where many clubs see less value in plodding innings-eaters, perhaps owing to the rise of the number of high-powered relief arms available, Miami’s approach with Volquez and Straily seems a bit outdated at first glance. On the other hand, the Marlins did also commit to bolstering their pen and have discussed some possible strategies for limiting the exposure of their starters to too many trips through the order. That casts an altogether different light on the team’s strategy, suggesting that it could be attempting something of a new way of getting results despite limited resources available to invest into a rotation. If Volquez and Straily (and their compatriots) are asked mostly to hand off winnable games to a deep bullpen after five or six innings, perhaps there are the makings of a workable, budget-friendly approach.

Overview

There’s no doubt the Marlins are pushing to contend, particularly with the prospect of a franchise sale by owner Jeffrey Loria hanging over the season. While the club forewent massive new expenditure on the MLB roster, it has continued to dedicate what resources are available — particularly, shipping out many of the relatively few quality prospects from the farm — to bolster the chances of winning now. While it’s still hard to predict that there’s enough firepower on hand to bypass the Nationals and Mets in the NL East, this does seem to be a plausible postseason roster with a few breaks in the right direction.

What’s your take on the Marlins’ winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Marlins' offseason?

C 47% (552)
B 27% (317)
D 16% (194)
F 7% (77)
A 4% (43)

Total votes: 1,183

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

By Mark Polishuk | at March 26, 2017 8:12pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Rays struck an interesting balance between keeping their payroll in check and adding young talent, while also making some significant additions that point towards postseason hopes in 2017.

Major League Signings

Wilson Ramos, C: Two years, $12.5MM
Colby Rasmus, OF: One year, $5MM
Logan Morrison, 1B: One year, $2.5MM
Nathan Eovaldi, SP: One year, $2MM (plus $2MM club option for 2018)
Derek Norris, C: One year, $1.2MM
Shawn Tolleson, RP: One year, $1MM
Total spend: $24.2MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Jose De Leon from Dodgers for 2B Logan Forsythe
Acquired CF Mallex Smith, IF Carlos Vargas and LHP Ryan Yarbrough from Mariners for SP Drew Smyly
Acquired RHP Dylan Thompson, RHP, Andrew Kittredge and 1B Dalton Kelly from Mariners for 1B/OF Richie Shaffer and UTIL Taylor Motter
Acquired C Jesus Sucre from Mariners for cash or a player to be named later
Acquired a player to be named later from Tigers for OF Mikie Mahtook
Acquired cash or a player to be named later from Rangers for RHP Eddie Gamboa
Acquired RHP Jeffrey Rosa from Nationals for LHP Enny Romero
Claimed RHP Jumbo Diaz off waivers from Reds
Selected RHP Kevin Gadea from Mariners in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Jason Coats, Tommy Hunter, Justin Marks, Michael McKenry, Cory Rasmus, Shane Robinson, Rickie Weeks

Extensions

Kevin Kiermaier, CF: Six years, $53.5MM (plus $13MM club option for 2023, with $2.5MM buyout)

Notable Losses

Forsythe, Smyly, Shaffer, Mahtook, Romero, Gamboa, Motter, Bobby Wilson, Kevin Jepsen, Steve Geltz

Needs Addressed

The Rays’ offseason began with a pair of notable front office promotions. Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom were both made senior VPs of baseball operations, while Neander was also named general manager. President of baseball ops Matt Silverman remained atop the decision-making pyramid, this time in more of a big-picture role while Neander and Bloom focused on day-to-day operations.

This “three-headed” front office structure is a little uncommon, yet it is perhaps fitting for a team that has to be able to move in several different directions at the same time. The Rays entered the winter, in fact, prepared to be either buyers or sellers depending on how they dealt with all of the trade interest in their rotation. If a rival club made an offer big enough to pry Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi loose, Tampa Bay would look to rebuild after losing a cornerstone pitcher. If a somewhat lesser arm like Drew Smyly or Alex Cobb was dealt, however, the Rays would instead reload for another run back to contention in 2017.

After several weeks of rumors surrounding the four Rays starters, Smyly ended up being the odd man out, going to the Mariners for a three-player package headlined by Mallex Smith. The 23-year-old Smith is still a work in progress at the plate, though he displayed outstanding speed and defense during his 2016 rookie season with the Braves. Smith is also under team control for at least five years, whereas Smyly is a free agent after 2018 and was getting expensive ($6.85MM in 2017) in his arbitration years.

It should be noted that the Rays signed Wilson Ramos well before moving Smyly, though it could be that Ramos’ situation presented such a unique opportunity (and Tampa Bay’s long-standing need at catcher was so dire) that the team would’ve made the move whether it was rebuilding or not. The Rays made catcher a priority this winter, looking into such names as Jason Castro and Welington Castillo before finally landing Ramos on a two-year, $12.5MM deal.

The idea of Ramos signing with the Rays would’ve been far-fetched six months ago, when the catcher was enjoying a big season with the Nationals and well on his way to a big payday in free agent. Disaster struck, however, when Ramos tore his ACL and meniscus in the final week of the regular season. The subsequent surgery will keep Ramos out of action until May or June, and this health uncertainty allowed Tampa Bay to get into the bidding. Assuming Ramos is able to get back on the field and look like his old self, this could end up being a win-win for both sides — Ramos gets some security now and he’ll still be only 31 when he hits the open market again, while the Rays can potentially get an All-Star backstop at a bargain price.

Since Ramos will miss some action and require a good deal of DH time when he does return, Tampa was still active on the catcher front, landing Jesus Sucre in yet another trade with Seattle and also exploring such bigger-name options as Matt Wieters before Wieters signed with the Nationals. That Wieters signing led to the Nats releasing Derek Norris, which in turn allowed the Rays to then land Norris on a one-year, $1.2MM deal. Norris is an excellent pitch framer who brings more hitting upside than any of Sucre, Curt Casali, or Luke Maile, and the Rays could now shop one or more of that trio to other teams in need of help behind the plate.

Ramos’ eventual role as a part-time DH also added an interesting dynamic to the Rays’ search for help at first base, left field and designated hitter. The rather slow market for free agent hitters allowed the Rays to at least explore several notable names (i.e. Jose Bautista, Mike Napoli, Wieters) that seemed far too expensive for Tampa Bay’s payroll limitations at the start of the winter.

As it turned out, the Rays stuck with inexpensive options and signed Colby Rasmus and familiar face Logan Morrison to one-year contracts. Rasmus can provide cover at all three outfield positions, though his best position is in left, where he was quietly one of the game’s best defenders in 2016 with the Astros. Morrison is at best a platoon option at first base, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brad Miller shifted back to first from second base as the season goes on. Veteran Rickie Weeks is in camp on hand as potential platoon partner for Morrison, with switch-hitting Nick Franklin in the mix (though Franklin is better against righty pitching) and intriguing rookie Jake Bauers lurking down at Triple-A.

Turning to the bullpen, the Rays signed former Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson to a one-year contract with Tolleson looking to bounce back after a very rough season. Waiver claim Jumbo Diaz and minor league signing Tommy Hunter round out Tampa Bay’s most notable relief additions. The pen will take an early hit since Brad Boxberger will begin the season on the DL with a lat injury, though the Rays look to have a pretty solid relief corps behind breakout closer Alex Colome (who drew quite a bit of trade buzz this winter).

The Rays also locked down center field for years to come by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM extension. The two-time Gold Glove winner has been an above-average run creator in two of his three seasons and he made great strides with his plate patience in 2016. If Kiermaier can augment his excellent baserunning and otherworldly defense with more consistent hitting, it isn’t a stretch to say that he’ll become one of the game’s most valuable assets — even without much batting production, Kiermaier still generated 13.1 fWAR over the last three seasons.

Questions Remaining

Logan Forsythe drew some trade attention from the Dodgers early in the spring as Los Angeles explored several fronts for a second base upgrade, though given how the Rays seemed to be building towards contending in 2017, it was still rather surprising that Tampa dealt Forsythe to L.A. for prospect Jose De Leon in late January. Evan Longoria, quite notably, vocalized his displeasure that the Rays traded a player who had developed into a valuable contributor for Tampa in 2015-16. Forsythe’s departure leaves the team without a solid second baseman and a right-handed bat within an increasingly left-handed regular lineup.

Miller has struggled to find a defensive niche anywhere he has played around the diamond, so while one perhaps can’t judge him based on only 196 1/3 career innings at the keystone, assuming he can provide even passable defense as a second baseman is questionable. Miller’s move to first base also seemed to unlock his bat last year, so taking on a more challenging defensive position this year could result in a step backwards at the plate.

The Rays’ plan to have Miller, Franklin, and Tim Beckham handling second base took a hit due to the ongoing uncertainty about Matt Duffy‘s health. Duffy has yet to even begin running drills, let alone take the field, in the wake of September surgery on the Achilles tendon in his left heel. Beckham is now penciled in as the starting shortstop, which both thins things out at second and also makes short a question mark, given Beckham’s lack of production over his career.

This lack of middle infield depth has led to Roster Resource projecting former top-100 prospect Daniel Robertson to break camp with the Rays. Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed is also on the radar as a trade target, which would be a big defensive boost even if Ahmed is a weak hitter. It wouldn’t be a surprise if top prospect Willy Adames even works his way into the picture later in the season; the 21-year-old has put up very good numbers in the minors and will now get his first taste of Triple-A.

As noted earlier, the Rays’ lineup is looking heavy on left-handed bats, which is problematic since so many (Rasmus, Miller, Morrison, Kiermaier, Corey Dickerson and the switch-hitting Franklin) haven’t been very effective against left-handed pitching. It doesn’t bode well for an offense that already had a lot of trouble scoring runs in recent years, particularly since the right-handed hitting Steven Souza has yet to break out as the cornerstone player the Rays hope he can become. Norris posted solid hitting numbers from 2013-15 but badly scuffled last year. Longoria can’t carry the weight alone, so the Rays are certainly hoping Ramos can get back sooner rather than later.

Weeks and Robertson provide some right-handed help from the bench, though it’s hard to guess what Robertson can provide given his lack of MLB experience. (That assumes, of course, that the team will bring him right up to the majors rather than giving him more consistent playing time at Triple-A.) Weeks has hit southpaws well his entire career, though he is entering his age-34 season and has been a replacement-level player overall for the last five seasons. The Rays are currently checking the trade market for right-handed hitting shortstops or outfielders, so clearly the team is looking for more depth beyond its current options

Archer and Odorizzi both had very large asking prices, so it isn’t surprising that Tampa Bay held onto both starters despite significant interest from the Rangers, Braves, Pirates, Astros, and others. The two righties join Cobb (a once-excellent starter who returned late last year from Tommy John surgery), highly-touted youngster Blake Snell and Matt Andriese in the rotation, with Erasmo Ramirez and Chase Whitley providing depth as swingmen out of the bullpen and De Leon on hand at Triple-A. There has been speculation that the Rays could still trade Ramirez or another pitcher before Opening Day, though in my opinion, another deal leaves Tampa a bit too short on capable rotation depth.

Xavier Cedeno and youngster Jose Alvarado are the only lefty relievers on Tampa’s 40-man roster, so the Rays could still stand to add a southpaw or two in the bullpen unless Justin Marks, Ryan Yarbrough, or Chris Kirsch are called up from Triple-A to add some left-handed depth.

Finally, Longoria is just about the furthest thing from a “question remaining” on the roster, but as usual, the offseason contained its share of rumors about whether or not the Rays would finally consider dealing their longtime star. The Rays reportedly have no plans or desire to move Longoria, and the third baseman has said many times that he wants to remain in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career. Longoria will gain control over his future when he gains no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player in April 2018, so if the Rays ever did want to entertain the idea of a Longoria trade, they only have roughly 13 months to freely do so.

Deal Of Note

De Leon seemed to be halfway out the door to the Twins for much of the winter, as he was the top trade chip offered by the Dodgers to Minnesota in trade talks involving Brian Dozier. Instead, De Leon ended up in a Rays uniform for another second baseman in Forsythe. The fact that such a notable prospect was so openly shopped could be seen as a red flag, though that could’ve just be the cost of doing business to acquire a top second baseman, plus the Dodgers have a deep enough farm system that they could afford to dangle such a promising young arm.

Baseball America ranks De Leon 29th in its list of the game’s best 100 prospects, with the righty also drawing good marks in other top-100 rankings from MLB.com (#33), Baseball Prospectus (#38) and ESPN’s Keith Law (#73). Despite this high praise, there is still some concern among evaluators about whether De Leon has the durability to last in a rotation, as he has yet to pitch more than 114 1/3 innings in a single season.

While De Leon made his MLB debut last season, he only pitched 17 innings for the Dodgers and was hit hard, allowing five homers and posting a 6.35 ERA in his brief stint in the Show. He may not quite be ready for the bigs yet, though he doesn’t have much less to prove in the minors given how he ripped through his first taste of Triple-A last year (2.61 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 5.55 K/BB rate in 86 1/3 innings).

De Leon-for-Forsythe will be a fascinating trade to evaluate over the next several years, as since I noted earlier, it seems like a deal that a rebuilding team would make rather than a would-be postseason hopeful. That said, with Smyly and Matt Moore moved in separate deals within the last year, Tampa Bay may have felt this opportunity to add a high-end pitching prospect was too good to pass up. We’ll likely see De Leon in the majors sooner than later in 2017, either as a bullpen reinforcement (as the Rays have broken in many young arms) or even as a short-term rotation replacement. A more permanent job could open up, of course, if the Rays fall out of contention and consider trading Archer, Odorizzi and/or Cobb at the deadline.

Overview

Much is riding on Ramos coming back in good form, and it would also be a boon for the Rays if some of their lefty bats could provide at least passable offense against southpaw pitching. In the bigger picture, the Rays would certainly have a better sense of their future direction if players like Souza, Duffy, Dickerson or Miller firmly established themselves as reliable everyday pieces. Tampa acquired all four in significant trades and, aside from Miller’s power surge last year, the Rays are still waiting to see exactly what they have in the quartet.

Tampa Bay will spend a projected $65.46MM on player salaries this season, a minor step down from last year’s Opening Day number ($66.68MM) and once again one of the lowest payrolls of any club in baseball. With this financial reality in place until the Rays can finally get a new ballpark, cost-cutting moves like trading Forsythe and Smyly are par for the course in order for the team to budget for even modest signings like Ramos or Rasmus. The last time the team went “all-in” by their standards was in the 2013-14 offseason, a move that backfired on the Rays after they suffered the first of three consecutive losing seasons.

It could be argued that the Rays should have just bit the bullet by trading Archer or Odorizzi to embark on a full-blown rebuild, though it’s hard to blame the team for demanding full value for either of their most valuable pitchers. There’s also enough talent and potential on this roster for Silverman, Neander, and Bloom to quite reasonably believe that the Rays can get back to winning baseball. If the Rays aren’t in contention at the deadline, however, they could be the most sought-after trade partner in baseball.

How would you rate the Rays’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rays' offseason?

B 44% (511)
C 29% (334)
A 14% (161)
D 10% (110)
F 3% (35)

Total votes: 1,151

Photos courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

By Connor Byrne | at March 23, 2017 8:28am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

After finishing among the American League’s bottom three teams in both wins (69) and run differential (minus-108) in 2016, the low-payroll Athletics tried to make a splash in free agency. Oakland’s attempt to land first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion went for naught, though, and the club ultimately emerged from the offseason having made several modestly priced signings.

Major League Signings

Matt Joyce, OF: Two years, $11MM
Santiago Casilla, RP: Two years, $11MM
Rajai Davis, OF: One year, $6MM
Trevor Plouffe, IF: One year, $5.25MM
Adam Rosales, IF: One year, $1.25MM
Total spend: $34.5MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Paul Blackburn from Mariners for IF/OF Danny Valencia
Acquired IF Jordan Tarsovich from Dodgers for OF Brett Eibner
Acquired C Jason Goldstein from Mariners for LHP Dillon Overton
Claimed RHP Josh Smith from Reds
Claimed LHP Giovanni Soto from Cubs (lost later on waivers to White Sox)

Notable Minor League Signings

Alejandro De Aza, Ross Detwiler, Ryan Lavarnway, Chris Parmelee, Jaff Decker, Felix Doubront, Matt McBride, Andrew Lambo

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Valencia, Eibner, Overton, Fernando Rodriguez

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart; Oakland Athletics Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The offseason didn’t unfold the way many thought it would for Encarnacion, whose five-year run in Toronto as an elite hitter didn’t lead to the nine-figure contract that seemed attainable at the outset of free agency. Encarnacion went without a deal for nearly two months before agreeing to join the Indians on a three-year contract with $60MM in guarantees. It was surprising that Encarnacion landed with the Tribe, but it was more of an eye-opener that the A’s were Cleveland’s main competition. After all, the richest contract on the A’s belongs to reliever Ryan Madson, who’s on the second season of a three-year pact worth $22MM. Encarnacion would have averaged $25MM per annum, likely over two years, had he taken the A’s offer. Reeling in the slugger would have been a boon for Oakland, which scored the fewest runs in the AL last season and has a starting first baseman, Yonder Alonso, who brings almost no offensive punch to the table.

“We knew we’d face some headwinds going in,” executive vice president Billy Beane said after losing the Encarnacion sweepstakes. “But again, we saw this as a unique player. … [W]e thought was that type of player who would have served as a real good anchor point with our young pitching and some of our other young players.”

Nearly a month before Encarnacion made his decision, the A’s partially addressed their offensive issues by awarding a two-year, $11MM guarantee to free agent outfielder Matt Joyce. That commitment has a chance to go down as one of the offseason’s biggest bargains, as the lefty-swinging Joyce has typically been a quality hitter and is coming off a career year. Then with the Pirates, Joyce slashed a terrific .242/.403/.463 in 293 plate appearances. The 32-year-old led all batters with at least 250 PAs in walk rate (20.1 percent, a notable improvement over his career 12.5 percent), which was the product of being far more selective than ever. Between 2008, his rookie campaign, and 2015, Joyce hadn’t swung at under 24.7 percent of pitches outside the zone in any individual season. Last year, though, he offered at only 18.2 percent of such pitches. He also showed some of the best power of his career, having logged his highest ISO (.221) since 2010.

It’s fair to be skeptical of Joyce going forward – he slashed a ghastly .174/.272/.291 in 284 PAs with the Angels only two years ago, and he’s a lifetime .185/.265/.310 hitter against lefties. However, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote in November, Joyce made intriguing adjustments last season, including lowering his hands and becoming less reliant on pulling the ball. Even if those gains don’t stick, though, the A’s should at least have a capable, reasonably priced platoon right fielder on their hands in Joyce, who has batted .252/.353/.449 in 2,686 career plate trips against righties.

Another newcomer, 36-year-old center fielder Rajai Davis, will join Joyce and primary left fielder Khris Davis to comprise the A’s main alignment in the grass. This isn’t the first go-around in Oakland for Davis, who was previously with the team from 2008-10. As an Indian last season, Davis wasn’t significantly better offensively than either of the A’s top two center fielders, Coco Crisp and Jake Smolinski, but he is a weapon when he gets on base. Davis is coming off a year in which he racked up an American League-high 43 steals – just seven fewer than the A’s 26th-ranked team total (50). He also finished second in the majors to Billy Hamilton in FanGraphs’ BsR metric, a stat in which Oakland ranked dead last. And while Davis was a mixed bag in center last season (minus-five Defensive Runs Saved, 3.6 UZR/150 in 595 innings), he has typically been passable there and should at least be a clear upgrade over Crisp, who registered minus-11 DRS and a minus-37.7 UZR/150 in 290 innings.

After adding Joyce and Davis to their outfield, the A’s sought to upgrade their infield and came away with third baseman Trevor Plouffe and utilityman Adam Rosales on one-year accords. A careerlong Twin until they outrighted him in November, Plouffe isn’t far removed from combining for a .251/.317/.429 line and 6.0 fWAR in 1,214 PAs from 2014-15. That type of production would be welcome for Oakland, though Plouffe struggled in the other five seasons of his career, having registered minus-0.8 fWAR largely because of subpar defensive metrics. That includes last season, when Plouffe was a negative at third (minus-four DRS, minus-17.1 UZR/150 in 519 innings) and hit a below-average .260/.303/.420 in 344 PAs. The 30-year-old does deserve some benefit of the doubt for his latest output, however, as he endured an injury-riddled campaign that featured three trips to the disabled list.

Healthy again, Plouffe will serve as the A’s No. 1 option at the hot corner, meaning Ryon Healy will mostly divide his time between designated hitter and first base. As a rookie last season, Healy played all 72 of his games at third, where he posted Plouffe-like numbers (minus-two DRS, minus-17.5 UZR/150) over 637 innings. Those struggles took away somewhat from the offensive excellence displayed by Healy, who put together a .305/.337/.524 mark in his 283-PA debut.

Rosales, meanwhile, will back up Plouffe, Healy and the rest of the A’s infielders, and he could be especially useful at second base. Starter Jed Lowrie has dealt with injury troubles throughout his career, including a left foot issue that limited him to 87 games last year, and hasn’t stood out offensively since a career year in 2013. Rosales, who was with the A’s from 2010-13, is coming off his own personal-best season. A Padre in 2016, the 33-year-old journeyman was a radically different hitter than he had been from 2008-15. Along with his best-ever batting line, .229/.319/.495 (in 248 PAs), the right-hander accrued highs in home runs (13), ISO (.266, up from a career .140), walk rate (11.7 percent) and hard contact rate (36.9 percent, far above his lifetime 26.4 percent figure). As evidenced by those numbers, not to mention a career-high fly ball rate (46.2 percent) and a bloated strikeout percentage (35.5), it’s clear Rosales sold out for gains in the power department last year. Even if his 2016 proves to be a mirage, Rosales should still give the A’s both a usable option against southpaws (.241/.318/.395 in 644 PAs) and, if Lowrie goes down again, a credible defensive second baseman (13 DRS, 6.6 UZR in 1,007 lifetime innings).

Click to continue…

Questions Remaining

Both Oakland’s low-cost pickups in free agency and better luck in the health department (the team used the DL a franchise-record 27 times last year) should lead to an improved club this season. However, the A’s are still chock full of question marks. Offensively, runs may still prove hard to come by, as there’s little of intrigue in place after Khris Davis, Healy, a potential Joyce/Mark Canha platoon and slugging shortstop Marcus Semien. Further, although Rajai Davis is now in the fold, Oakland still lacks in the baserunning department. The only other likely starter on the roster who should be any kind of a threat on the bases is Semien, who stole 10 bags last season. At the same time, catcher Stephen Vogt, Khris Davis, Healy, Joyce, Lowrie, Plouffe and Alonso combined for a paltry six.

Speaking of Alonso, it’s certainly conceivable the A’s could have upgraded over him during the offseason; instead, they kept the historically light-hitting first baseman for $4MM. They’ll now hope Alonso’s new fly ball-first approach, which FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris recently covered, will lead to a breakout for the soon-to-be 30-year-old and former top prospect. If not, Beane and general manager David Forst might end up sorry that they didn’t jettison Alonso in favor of an affordable free agent like Steve Pearce, Luis Valbuena, Chris Carter or Brandon Moss (the latter two are former A’s). They also could have retained corner infielder Danny Valencia, who slashed .288/.346/.477 in Oakland over the previous two seasons. There have been behind-the-scenes issues with Valencia, however, which would explain why the A’s got rid of the 32-year-old and why dealing him only returned right-handed pitcher Paul Blackburn, who barely cracks the club’s top 30 prospects list on MLB.com.

Defensively, the A’s didn’t markedly upgrade a unit that placed last in both DRS and UZR in 2016. None of the A’s offseason signings are aces in the field, though it’s possible replacing Valencia with Plouffe at third will go a long way toward bettering their defense (Valencia recorded a woeful minus-18 DRS and an even worse minus-25.6 UZR/150 at the hot corner last year). A bounce-back campaign from Alonso would also help Oakland’s cause. Alonso had been a terrific defender from 2010-15 (29 DRS, 11.2 UZR), but he went backward in 2016 (minus-3 DRS, minus-1.1 UZR).

A better defense would obviously assist the A’s rotation, which features no shortage of uncertainty even as the front office continues to express confidence in the group it has assembled. The questions start at the top, where Sonny Gray, a bona fide ace from 2014-15, went on the DL twice last season and posted a 5.69 ERA and 4.67 FIP in 117 innings. Now battling a lat strain that could keep him out for all of April, Gray’s guaranteed another injury-shortened year. Aside from Gray, back-end starter Kendall Graveman and second-year man Sean Manaea, who certainly encouraged as a rookie, no other season-opening rotation candidate saw much major league action in 2016. Jharel Cotton and Andrew Triggs clearly possess plenty of promise, though, and the out-of-options Raul Alcantara, 24, dominated across 45 2/3 Triple-A frames a year ago. And then there’s Jesse Hahn, who had been an effective big leaguer prior to a miserable 2016 spent between Oakland and Triple-A Nashville. Over 170 innings with the Padres and A’s from 2014-15, Hahn paired a 3.23 ERA with a 51.7 percent ground-ball rate.

While the A’s starters are largely unproven, their bullpen is loaded with experience. Madson, Santiago Casilla, Sean Doolittle and John Axford are all over the age of 30, and each has vast closing experience. All four have also been lights-out in the past, but those days seem gone in the cases of Madson and Axford. The still-effective Casilla is coming off his worst year since 2010 (more on him in a bit), while the good-when-healthy Doolittle only combined for 52 2/3 innings over the previous two seasons. Still, with Liam Hendriks and Ryan Dull joining those four as the A’s top relief options, their bullpen looks solid on paper. It’s potentially concerning that the group is almost exclusively right-handed (Doolittle is the exception), though only Casilla was particularly vulnerable against left-handed hitters last season.

Deal Of Note

Santiago Casilla ” width=”214″ height=”300″ />

The 36-year-old Casilla began his professional career with the A’s in 2000, when he signed as an international free agent who went by the name Jairo Garcia, and stayed with the franchise through the 2009 season. Casilla remained in the Bay Area with the Giants over the past seven years, and he could be in position to finish in Oakland and bring his career full circle. Casilla stands as the only pitcher to whom the A’s handed a major league deal during the winter, and his $11MM guarantee ties Joyce’s deal as the richest they doled out.

In 336 2/3 innings between his first and second A’s tenures, Casilla compiled a 2.42 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 51.7 percent ground-ball rate. He also saved 123 games as a Giant, though he wasn’t exactly a shutdown closer in San Francisco. Manager Bruce Bochy stripped Casilla of the role last year, when he totaled a league-worst nine blown saves and recorded his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. Given his age, it’s possible Casilla is amid a steep decline, but there are still reasons for his optimism. For instance, Casilla did notch a career-best strikeout percentage (27.0) and his second-best walk percentage (7.9) in 2016. He also exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable grounder rate (47.6 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.

While Casilla didn’t come at a prohibitive cost, the A’s took a risk in giving a multiyear contract to an aging reliever. Taking that same tack a year ago with Madson and Axford didn’t work out great in either case last season. It’s also worth noting that Casilla’s pact seems rich relative to the ones given to fellow right-handed, over-35 setup men in ex-Giants teammate Sergio Romo (one year, $3MM; Dodgers), former Athletic Joe Blanton (one year, $4MM; Nationals) and Koji Uehara (one year, $6MM; Cubs). In fairness to both the A’s and Casilla, though, he arguably represents the most appealing investment (in terms of recent performance and durability) among the four.

Overview

The Athletics appear to have improved over the winter, but the same can be said for the majority of their AL West rivals. With that in mind, the A’s are likely to have difficulty avoiding a third straight last-place finish in the division. Still, there is quality youth on hand and more potentially on the way. Prospects such as middle infielder Franklin Barreto and third baseman Matt Chapman could overtake the likes of Lowrie and Plouffe sometime this season, which would immediately make the A’s a far more interesting team to watch. More importantly, their introductions could help lay the groundwork for an eventual contender – something the A’s haven’t been since 2014.

What’s your take on the Athletics’ winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Athletics' offseason?

C 46% (436)
D 22% (210)
B 22% (208)
F 6% (55)
A 4% (35)

Total votes: 944

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Athletics MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | at March 22, 2017 1:54pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The White Sox set a rebuilding course with a pair of Winter Meetings blockbusters in which Chris Sale and Adam Eaton were cashed in for top prospects.

Major League Signings

Derek Holland, SP: one year, $6MM. Includes performance bonuses.
Total spend: $6MM.

Trades And Claims

Claimed OF Rymer Liriano off waivers from Brewers
Claimed RP Giovanni Soto off waivers from Athletics
Acquired 2B Yoan Moncada, SP Michael Kopech, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, and RP Victor Diaz from Red Sox for SP Chris Sale
Acquired SP Lucas Giolito, SP Reynaldo Lopez, and SP Dane Dunning from Nationals for CF Adam Eaton
Acquired SP Dylan Covey from Athletics in Rule 5 draft
Acquired cash from Rangers for P James Dykstra
Claimed OF Willy Garcia off waivers from Pirates
Acquired 1B Brandon Dulin from Royals for player to be named later or cash

Notable Minor League Signings

Cory Luebke, Anthony Swarzak, Geovany Soto, Everth Cabrera, Cody Asche, Peter Bourjos, Blake Smith, Tyler Matzek, Tyler Ladendorf

Extensions

Tim Anderson, SS: Six years, $25MM. Includes club options for 2023 and 2024.

Notable Losses

Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Brett Lawrie, J.B. Shuck, Justin Morneau, Austin Jackson, Alex Avila, Matt Albers, Jacob Turner, Daniel Webb, Anthony Ranaudo, Jason Coats

White Sox Roster; White Sox Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

When I published my White Sox Offseason Outlook on November 5th, the team had not yet tipped its hand as to the offseason direction. GM Rick Hahn had said in August, “By the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.” Hahn wasn’t kidding. The White Sox staked a very clear rebuilding position with back-to-back Winter Meetings blockbuster trades. Finally, the team committed to a full teardown.

First, longtime ace starting pitcher Chris Sale was traded to the Red Sox for a bevy of top prospects, led by Moncada and Kopech (pictured at right). In Moncada, the White Sox acquired the type of player who is rarely traded: a potential perennial All-Star, on the cusp of being MLB-ready. The switch-hitting Cuban is penciled in as Chicago’s second baseman of the future. Moncada draws raves from prospect gurus for his power, speed, and arm. Kopech, meanwhile, is a power pitcher who comes with “front of the rotation potential,” according to Baseball America. Basabe, while further from the Majors, also rates as one of the team’s top ten prospects now. The White Sox determined they could not win in the next three years with Sale, and Hahn was able to maximize the return by pitting the Red Sox against the Nationals, Astros, Braves, and others.

Barely 24 hours later at MLB’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, Hahn made a deal to send Adam Eaton to the Nationals for three pitching prospects. Baseball America ranks Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both slightly above Kopech, and has all three in the #25-32 range among all MLB prospects. Like Moncada, Giolito and Lopez have Major League time. While there may be growing pains, the top assets acquired by Hahn are all close to contributing in 2017. Dunning played the Basabe role in this deal, as a third piece who is further from the big leagues. Eaton, 28, is at the top of his game and was the rare veteran player to be dealt with five years of remaining control. With the Eaton trade, Hahn was able to pull off a second deal that drew raves around the industry. The total haul for Sale and Eaton leaned toward pitching, a function of Hahn pursuing the best available young players, regardless of position.

A week later, the White Sox filled their rotation vacancy by signing Derek Holland to a one-year deal. Holland hasn’t had a healthy, valuable season since 2013, but this is the kind of free agent signing we expect to see with a rebuilding club. In the best case scenario, Holland has a nice first half and the White Sox are able to spin him for a useful, controllable piece in July.

Earlier this week, the White Sox locked up shortstop Tim Anderson to a precedent-setting six-year, $25MM deal. The contract sets a new record for a player with less than one year of Major League service. With only 115 days of Major League service under his belt, it’s difficult to project what kind of player Anderson will become. But at age 23, he already looks like a solid two-win contributor. And the team has a fantastic recent track record with these types of extensions, having previously signed Sale, Eaton, Jose Quintana, and Nate Jones.

Questions Remaining

With the Sale and Eaton trades occurring in rapid succession, it seemed a Jose Quintana deal wasn’t far behind. Quintana’s availability this winter was no secret. While the 28-year-old doesn’t have Sale’s ace reputation, he is a very good starting pitcher on a very team-friendly contract. With a terrible free agent market for starting pitching, it was surprising no team was willing to meet the demands of the White Sox for Quintana. The Pirates and Astros were reportedly quite interested, with the Rangers, Yankees, and Braves also connected. Quintana is undoubtedly a major trade chip for the White Sox in the coming months. In a February call with MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, Hahn said, “Frankly, there just hasn’t been an offer on the table that has made us feel like, ‘Boy we better move now or we are going to be kicking ourselves.'” While Hahn noted he’s feeling no economic or timing pressure on his remaining trade chips, the team is taking a calculated risk that offers will improve in future. While a summer Quintana trade currently seems like the most likely scenario, it’s possible a deal could be struck between now and Opening Day.

Rumors were scant regarding first baseman Jose Abreu, outside of a Winter Meetings note that the Rockies were interested. The White Sox may have run into an overcrowded free agent market, which featured more first base/DH-type bats than there were jobs. At the lower end, players such as Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, and Chris Carter took cheaper-than-expected deals. Abreu, 30, is more appealing than many of those free agents, but not enough to trigger wide reported interest.

In their talks for Adam Eaton, the Nationals reportedly attempted to expand the deal to include reliever David Robertson. Talks continued, but the Nationals and White Sox have reportedly reached a stalemate on the veteran closer. With two years and $25MM remaining on his contract, and control problems in 2016, Robertson is not for everyone. He’s another name to watch this summer. Perhaps the White Sox will end up eating more money than they were willing to in the winter. Todd Frazier, a free agent after 2017, is another veteran player who received little reported interest this winter despite hitting 75 home runs over the past two seasons. The White Sox will be rooting for strong, healthy first halves for many veteran players, which would lead to an active July. Hahn repeatedly said he would have liked to have made four more transactions this winter, and perhaps Quintana, Abreu, Robertson, and Frazier were the four players.

The team would also be best served moving 32-year-old veteran Melky Cabrera, who will serve as the Opening Day left fielder. The Melk Man hit about as well as Wil Myers, Adam Eaton, or Mike Napoli last year, but his below-average defense and $15MM salary seems to have limited interest. One quietly intriguing trade chip this summer will be Nate Jones, a fantastic reliever who is under contract for up to five more seasons. Jones, a 31-year-old with a 97 mile per hour fastball, is far more valuable than Robertson and could be the best reliever traded this summer. The White Sox still have a ton of trading left to do.

Aside from all the trades that have yet to happen, the other question is who is actually going to play for the 2017 White Sox. With a team that is clearly not concerned about winning in 2017, the White Sox have a rare opportunity to use low-pressure playing time to unearth trade chips or future contributors. Unfortunately, the roster is currently loaded with placeholders devoid of upside. For example, the club’s Opening Day outfield could feature Cabrera, Peter Bourjos, and Avisail Garcia. Someone has to stand out there, but hopefully Hahn can identify a few post-hype sleepers to try out in the outfield until long-term fixtures are identified. The White Sox make a great home for players feeling the roster squeeze. The release of Lawrie was a step in the right direction, opening up second base for cheaper options led by Tyler Saladino. The team’s catching position is another area of uncertainty. The club is hoping 25-year-old Omar Narvaez can keep the seat warm until 2016 first-round pick Zack Collins is ready for The Show.

Overview

In 2017, the White Sox are set to join teams like the Phillies, Reds, Padres, and Brewers as clubs undertaking rebuilds. It’s the right move for the franchise as Hahn and company look to build a sustainable winner with a deep roster. The Major League product will get worse before it gets better, as the White Sox will continue to clear the decks of veteran players this summer.

What’s your take on the White Sox’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the White Sox' winter?

A 55% (2,345)
B 29% (1,255)
C 9% (377)
D 4% (159)
F 3% (138)

Total votes: 4,274

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | at March 20, 2017 11:08am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

Fresh off their first World Championship since 1908, the Cubs acquired a top-shelf closer and spent modestly in free agency.

Major League Signings

Jon Jay, CF: one year, $8MM
Koji Uehara, RP: one year, $6MM
Brett Anderson, SP: one year, $3.5MM. Includes performance bonuses based on starts.
Brian Duensing, RP: one year, $2MM
Total spend: $19.5MM.

Trades And Claims

Claimed RP Conor Mullee off waivers from Yankees (later non-tendered and re-signed to minor league deal)
Acquired RP Wade Davis from Royals for OF Jorge Soler
Acquired P Caleb Smith from Brewers for a player to be named later or cash. Smith had been taken by the Brewers from the Yankees in the Major League Rule 5 draft and remains subject to those rules.
Claimed RP David Rollins off waivers from Rangers (later outrighted and cleared waivers)
Claimed RP Dylan Floro off waivers from Rays (later outrighted and cleared waivers)
Acquired SP Eddie Butler from Rockies for RP James Farris and an international bonus slot
Acquired SP Alec Mills from Royals for CF Donnie Dewees

Notable Minor League Signings

Jemile Weeks, Jim Henderson, Munenori Kawasaki, Williams Perez, Andury Acevedo, Gerardo Concepcion, Casey Kelly, Manny Parra, Zac Rosscup, Carlos Corporan, Fernando Rodriguez

Extensions

Pedro Strop, RP: Two years, $11.85MM. Replaced one-year, $5.5MM arbitration deal for 2017. Includes $6.25MM club option for 2019 with a $500K buyout.

Notable Losses

Dexter Fowler, Aroldis Chapman, Jorge Soler, David Ross, Jason Hammel, Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Clayton Richard, Joe Smith, Chris Coghlan, James Farris, Donnie Dewees, Armando Rivero, Spencer Patton

Cubs Roster; Cubs Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

An MLB front office never rests. Before the buzz wore off from the Cubs’ epic World Series parade, Theo Epstein and company met with starting pitcher Jason Hammel regarding his 2017 club option, according to Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. Earlier this month, Hammel explained to reporters, “I love how people were saying it was a choice, because it really wasn’t. It was either basically pitch out of the bullpen or not have a job.” Hammel told the Cubs to cut him loose, and the team set off searching for rotation depth to complement Mike Montgomery.

It appeared the Cubs’ top priority was Tyson Ross, the 29-year-old righty who was non-tendered by the Padres in December. Ross’ lost 2016 culminated in thoracic outlet surgery in mid-October, and the arbitration system would have required the Padres to pay him $7.68MM or more this year. The Cubs ended up finishing second for Ross, who received a $6MM guarantee from the Rangers in mid-January.

Enter Plan B: 29-year-old southpaw Brett Anderson. The oft-injured lefty had finally returned to the 30-start milestone with the 2015 Dodgers, and accepted that club’s $15.8MM qualifying offer for 2016. Things quickly went sour for him, as Anderson was diagnosed with a bulging disk in his back that required surgery in March. Anderson made his 2016 Dodgers debut on August 14th, but then dealt with a wrist sprain and a blister. Unlike Ross, Anderson is at least MLB-ready at this moment. Whether he makes five or 25 starts for the Cubs this year, the Cubs haven’t risked much. Manager Joe Maddon has indicated Montgomery and Anderson may share the fifth starter job, or the team could occasionally go to a six-man rotation.

Soon after the Anderson signing, the Cubs added two more depth pieces in Eddie Butler and Alec Mills. Both had been designated for assignment by their former teams and have an option remaining, meaning they’ll likely open the season at Triple-A Iowa. Butler remains somewhat intriguing, as outlined by Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.

The bottom line: with a returning rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey, the Cubs did not feel the need to go big for their self-created rotation vacancy. They expressed no reported interest in free agents such as Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, or Charlie Morton, and seemingly were not involved in trade talks for Taijuan Walker, Drew Smyly, Dan Straily, or Jose De Leon. The assumption is that Chris Sale wasn’t a consideration, given the White Sox’ likely reluctance to send their ace across town.

The Cubs also took a measured approach toward center field. Even with the luxury tax threshold in sight, the Cubs could have afforded to re-sign Dexter Fowler at the $82.5MM he ultimately received from the Cardinals. But this is a disciplined front office, one that didn’t seem interested in giving Fowler a three-year deal during his previous free agency. So, gone is the two or three-win player Fowler might be this year, replaced by incumbent Albert Almora and free agent signing Jon Jay (pictured). The Cubs struck quickly to add Jay, a 32-year-old veteran who can hit for average and play an acceptable center field. Jay will serve as a safety net for Almora, who turns 23 in April and was drafted sixth overall by the Cubs in 2012. Baseball America describes Almora as “a potential Gold Glove winner in center.” If he can show a tolerable bat at the bottom of the Cubs’ order, Almora will have the center field job for years. Rather than give Fowler a risky long-term deal, the Cubs elected to accept a short-term downgrade and increased risk with center field for 2017.

You may be sensing a trend toward conservatism in the Cubs’ offseason. Indeed, all four free agents they signed received one-year deals. During the summer, Epstein and company actually did mortgage a piece of the team’s future, sending potential star infielder Gleyber Torres to the Yankees to rent flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman.

Shortly after the Cubs became World Champions, though, prudence set in. Record-shattering five-year deals for Chapman or Kenley Jansen didn’t interest the Cubs, who instead made a Winter Meetings deal to acquire Wade Davis (pictured) from the Royals for Jorge Soler. The deal carries its own kind of risk, just not financial. In Soler, the Cubs traded away four years of control of a 25-year-old with a potential All-Star bat. However, Soler had no role in the Cubs’ crowded outfield, hadn’t impressed much in his 765 plate appearances with the team, and had battled injuries throughout his tenure. His loss has little effect on the 2017 club. Davis, who the Cubs control for just one year, was among the game’s best relievers from 2014-15. However, he missed 52 days in 2016 with elbow problems. The Cubs have said they feel confident about Davis’ health.

The Cubs also added Koji Uehara, who turns 42 in April. Uehara is about as dominant as a reliever can be with an 87-MPH fastball, though he is an extreme flyball pitcher. Like Davis, he’s an obvious health risk. There’s a good chance the Cubs’ bullpen depth will be tested this year, with righties Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Justin Grimm expected to have roles. Strop, who has a 2.65 ERA over the last three years with the Cubs, signed a team-friendly extension that added only $6.35MM in guaranteed money.

The Cubs entered the offseason without much left-handed relief depth. After reportedly showing interest in top free agent lefty Brett Cecil in November, the club settled on Brian Duensing as their lone Major League signing for this vacancy. Duensing, 34, spent the first two months of the 2016 season in Triple-A and later missed over two months to elbow surgery. His effectiveness against lefties has come and gone over the last few seasons. The Cubs added more lefty relief depth with Rule 5er Caleb Smith, but he’s barely pitched above Double-A and is a long shot to stick in a Major League bullpen all year. Montgomery may eventually be needed to shore up the Cubs’ left-handed relief, if Anderson is able to handle the fifth starter job.

More analysis after the break …Read more

Questions Remaining

Epstein’s February comments were telling. According to Patrick Mooney, the Cubs’ president noted, “We really want to be cognizant of leaving some flexibility for in-season moves, leaving a little cushion beneath the CBT (competitive balance tax) threshold for us to be able to operate.” It’s easy to picture the Cubs acquiring pitching this summer after their relatively quiet winter, especially with health risks like Davis, Anderson, and Uehara. When that time comes, the Cubs have higher-caliber prospects like Eloy Jimenez and Ian Happ, as well as lesser, blocked prospects like Mark Zagunis and Jeimer Candelario.

In the more immediate future, the Cubs seem likely to trade outfielder Matt Szczur or infielder Tommy La Stella. Szczur, who is out of minor league options, has few paths to playing time in a Cubs outfield that includes Almora, Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist. La Stella can be optioned, but last year he refused to report when the Cubs attempted to send him to Iowa. It seems that Cubs fans overwhelmingly prefer to keep Szczur, but La Stella is the better roster fit despite last year’s incident. It’s possible an injury could buy the Cubs some time, but everyone is healthy at present.

Maddon’s creativity will be needed more than ever in 2017. On any given day, the Cubs are likely to have a few starting-caliber players on their bench. The trickiest issue might be Heyward. The 27-year-old had an abysmal Cubs debut with the bat last year, and spent the winter reworking his swing. With so much talent on the Cubs’ roster as they try to defend their title, a player coming off the season Heyward had would typically need to earn his playing time. However, Heyward is owed $149MM over the next seven years. His may be the most untradeable contract in baseball. Given that guaranteed money, the Cubs badly want to see Heyward become an above-average hitter again. If Heyward’s struggles continue into May or June, the team will have to grapple with the idea of a $21MM bench player.

Jake Arrieta’s free agency will continue to loom over the Cubs. Arrieta topped my recent 2017-18 Free Agent Power Rankings, and there has been little traction between the Cubs and agent Scott Boras. Most assume Arrieta will be allowed to leave and seek a six or seven-year deal elsewhere. Even a five-year deal in excess of $150MM may be too risky for the Cubs. As far as the long-term look of the Cubs’ rotation, the team controls both Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks through 2020. While they might be able to squeeze another year out of Lackey, the team’s front office will surely be on the lookout for young starting pitching that can help in 2018 and beyond.

Overview

Back in November, Epstein said, “We made two offseasons worth of acquisitions last winter, two offseasons worth of spending. We were very open about that at the time, knowing this winter there wouldn’t quite be the same type of talent available to us.” Epstein then went out and validated that comment, making just one significant trade and spending less than $20MM on a quartet of one-year free agent contracts. Despite the relatively quiet winter, the Cubs again project as the best team in baseball as they look to become the first team to win back-to-back World Championships since the 1999 Yankees.

What’s your take on the Cubs’ winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Cubs' offseason?

B 55% (1,199)
A 23% (505)
C 17% (377)
D 3% (65)
F 2% (36)

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