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2016-17 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Phillies’ front office, which continues to chart a steady rebuilding course, added short-term veterans to supplement a group of young talent that is steadily matriculating to the majors.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Phillies Roster; Phillies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Ryan Howard’s departure, the Phillies have fully shed the stars that made up the organization’s most recent contending roster — with their salaries also now departing the payroll. Philadelphia is now building a new core, and just made the first long-term commitment to one of those pieces.

If you look at the Phillies’ future balance sheet, there’s just one name on it: Odubel Herrera, the former Rule 5 pick who is now controlled through 2023 after striking an extension over the winter. We’ll have more on that move below, in the “deal of note” section.

Interestingly, that was really the only significant forward-looking move the Phils made over the winter. There was some trade chatter, mostly surrounding second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but there was no urgency to deal him with three years of arbitration control remaining. And the Phils were never rumored to be chasing any controllable major leaguers.

Instead, the club seems content to nurture its existing group of young talent while continuing to build through the draft. But that’s not to say that GM Matt Klentak and company sat on their hands all winter. With massive spending capacity and a new TV contract, the plan called for some fairly significant investments in the 2017 roster — none of which, notably, will impact the future payroll.

That $36.7MM total spending figure listed above is a bit misleading. In addition to its free-agent commitments, Philadelphia struck three separate trades that essentially functioned the same way. The team gave up little in the way of players, but took on $30MM in salary. Combined with the open-market moves, two-thirds of Philly’s approximately $100MM Opening Day payroll comes from newly-added veterans.

So, what did they get for their money? There was no singular focus akin to the Braves’ and Padres’ rotation overhauls. Instead, the Phillies splashed veterans across the roster.

The rotation features some appealing young talent, though the Phillies obviously hoped to relieve the pressure on the arms that will be needed for the long haul. Jeremy Hellickson represented the first major addition when he somewhat surprisingly accepted the qualifying offer issued by the club. While the Phils surely would have been happy to recoup a draft pick, it’s hardly the worst result given the strategy. That said, if the club hopes to cash in on its thus-far worthwhile investment in Hellickson, it’ll need to deal him at the deadline; under the new rules, he’s not eligible for another QO.

Jeremy Hellickson

Despite the return of Hellickson, the Phillies elected to add Clay Buchholz to a staff that’ll also feature Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. There were alternatives to adding another veteran — Jake Thompson reached the majors last year and several 40-man members are throwing at Triple-A — but Philadelphia elected to take on Buchholz in hopes of a resurgence. If he can carry forward his strong work late in 2016 (2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings), then the Phillies can shop him over the summer or perhaps make a qualifying offer at season’s end.

The bullpen saw additions, too, with Pat Neshek coming via trade and Joaquin Benoit arriving from the open market. These elder statesmen both had promising results last year, but also come with questions. Neshek carried a 3.06 ERA while allowing less than one baserunner per inning through his typical blend of few walks and weak contact. But his success was driven by a BABIP-against mark (.216) that was even lower than usual (.236 career), and he was bombed when allowed to face lefties (.240/.321/.646 and ten home runs in just 55 plate appearances). Benoit, meanwhile, allowed just one earned run on 17 hits in his 23 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays, but had struggled with his control and long ball susceptibility over the first half of the season with the Mariners.

With the infield accounted for, Klentak and his charges turned to addressing an outfield that had received meager contributions from the corners in 2016. The first move, acquiring Howie Kendrick, may have been made in part to provide cover in the event that a deal was struck involving Hernandez. But the former second baseman was always penciled in to play left, and that’s where he’ll open the season. A paragon of consistency at the plate for the bulk of his career, Kendrick fell off last season and ended up hitting just .255/.326/.366 — though he did substantially increase his walk rate. While there’s not much upside to him as a left fielder, Kendrick at least represents a sturdy veteran who’ll plug a hole.

Next, the Phils staked a more interesting bet on Michael Saunders, whose deal includes an option for 2018. The 30-year-old was finally healthy and productive last year, though he faded badly after an outstanding start. Still, the overall results — .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs over 558 plate appearances — were quite good, and Philadelphia would no doubt be pleased with a repeat performance.

That slate of moves was accompanied by the re-signing of veteran infielder Andres Blanco, who has been a handy member of the bench for the past two seasons.

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Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Rockies obviously see an opportunity to contend in 2017, and made some hefty commitments over the winter to bolster that possibility. But ongoing pitching questions and a slate of spring injuries have clouded the outlook somewhat.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Rockies Depth Chart; Rockies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

After addressing the open managerial job with the hiring of Bud Black at the opening of the offseason, the Rockies had a wide-open slate of possibilities. The team could conceivably have pursued a variety of trade scenarios involving such established stars as Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. Instead, the club ended up keeping its core intact and adding the old-fashioned way: through some pretty big spending on the open market.

Mar 9, 2017; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman Ian Desmond against Puerto Rico during a 2017 World Baseball Classic exhibition game at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

There were two major openings on the position-player side entering the winter: first base and catcher. Colorado elected to plunk down a lot of cash to add a productive veteran, but the player chosen came as quite some surprise. When the news broke that Ian Desmond was headed to the Rockies, it was generally assumed that he’d be playing in the outfield, with one of the team’s left-handed hitters — Gonzalez, Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, or perhaps even David Dahl — likely to be traded to address another need. Instead, the Rox stuck to their initial suggestion that Desmond would play first, though the organization notes that it values his versatility now and into the future. (More on that below.)

Behind the dish, the Rockies bypassed opportunities to pursue veterans via trade or free agency, where names like Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Welington Castillo and (on the trade front) Brian McCann were available. Instead, the organization decided to rely on Tony Wolters, Tom Murphy, and Dustin Garneau. Murphy, who seems to have the greatest upside of the bunch, will be on the DL to open the year, so the Rockies made a late move to add veteran Ryan Hanigan.

Alexi Amarista was added to replace departing utilityman Daniel Descalso, but otherwise a bunch of friendly faces will be taking the field at Coors. In addition to the outfielders named above, high-power/high-strikeout shortstop Trevor Story is back from injury; Nolan Arenado and 2016 NL batting champion DJ LeMahieu will look to repeat their strong 2016 seasons at third and second base; and Mark Reynolds will return to first base (he re-signed on a minors deal) until Desmond, who suffered a fractured finger in Soring Training, is healthy. Rounding out the bench is Stephen Cardullo, an indy ball find who surprisingly spent time in the bigs last year.

Of course, the lineup was always seen as a strength for Colorado. Entering the winter, most expected the club to focus on pitching. Though the rotation finally had shown signs of life, it wasn’t exactly overloaded with established arms, and the bullpen had some clear holes.

The latter group got the attention that was expected, and then some. In addition to tendering a contract to Jake McGee despite his poor first year with the organization, Colorado gave Mike Dunn a surprising three-year deal and beat the market to roll the dice on Greg Holland, the once-elite reliever who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery. That makes for one pricey relief corps. When you add the 2017 salaries of those three pitchers to what’s owed Adam Ottavino, Jordan Lyles, Chad Qualls, and the just-designated Jason Motte, the tab for this season alone lands just under $30MM.

But the rotation was another story. Content to keep its lefty-heavy outfield mix intact, and enamored of the relatively untested options on hand, the Rox did not add a single starter over the offseason.

Questions Remaining

The Rockies were arguably justified in staying their hand on adding another piece to the rotation. Entering camp, four spots were firmly accounted for (by Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, and Chad Bettis). Beyond that quartet, there were quite a few contenders for the final job. Though adding a veteran to bolster the competition would have been nice, perhaps an appealing target couldn’t be enticed given the arms on hand and the prospect of pitching at Coors Field. And while the trade route surely was at least considered, either a lack of suitable matches or a differing strategy may simply have led the Rockies to a different approach.

Taking that course, though, always meant there’d be a lot of pressure on quite a few young pitchers. Teams know they’ll use more than five starters over the course of a season, so their depth charts must go at least eight or ten arms deep. In the case of the Rockies, outside of the top four arms listed above, the only potential starter in the organization who has more than eight MLB appearances under his belt is Chris Rusin, who thrived last year in a relief role. Prospects Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez are the only others who have seen any major league action at all, with each getting a taste of the bigs last year.

The situation worsened significantly with the terrible news that Bettis would require chemotherapy after his testicular cancer unexpectedly spread. Though he says it’s possible he could return this year, everyone’s first priority will remain Bettis’s well-being. Clearly, the team can’t count on a contribution from the steady performer in 2017.

Thus it was that the Rockies found it necessary to pluck two fresh arms from the farm to open the 2017 season. It seems that Antonio Senzatela (22) and Kyle Freeland (23) will get those jobs, with Marquez functioning as a swingman to open the season. The former was oustanding at Double-A in 2016, but he threw only 34 2/3 innings as the team exercised plenty of caution with a shoulder issue. While he had reached 154 frames in the prior season, asking for 32 starts would be a reach. Freeland, meanwhile, was the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft. However, he only reached the upper minors last year and didn’t exactly dominate with a 3.89 ERA over 162 innings with 6.0 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. Also of note: that innings tally represented a big jump after two consecutive partials seasons.

Whenever the next need opens up, the Rockies can turn to Rusin (once he’s healthy), Marquez, Hoffman, and perhaps Lyles. They’ll also be able to dip further into the farm, which includes pitchers such as 40-man members Shane Carle, Yency Almonte, and Zach Jemiola. That may well be sufficient depth, but the Rockies set to tap into an unusually youthful reservoir of starting pitching for an organization that has its sights set on contention.

The ’pen faces its own questions, but they’re mostly of the typical kind. Overall, the unit has a fair bit of upside despite the recent health issues faced by pitchers such as Holland, McGee, Ottavino, and Qualls; those hurlers will be looking to return while others (Marquez, Carlos Estevez, and Miguel Castro, if he clears waivers) will try to convert impressive raw stuff into effectiveness.

You could say the same of the bulk of the lineup, which has a nice overall blend of stars, solid pieces, and role players. There may be minor quibbles about the lefty-heavy outfield mix — top prospect Raimel Tapia also hits from the left side — and the catching mix is as unestablished as any in baseball. The organization, though, seems to believe in the current catching options. And overall, the the collection of position players seems to be a good one.

Deal Of Note

That includes Desmond, the presumptive first baseman. He ought to be fine there, after all. If he’s a slightly above-average hitter and great baserunner, as he has been, and perhaps adds some value with the glove, he should be a solid-enough performer for the position.

But this is a club that enters the season with a record-setting $120MM payroll — prior to 2015, it had never even reached nine figures — and designs on more than competence. Desmond was the marquee addition, clearly. And teams generally accept that when they sign long-term deals with free agents — at least, those that aren’t abnormally youthful — they’re accepting that they’ll pay a premium later (in the post-prime years of the deal) in order to get a quality, established player on the MLB roster right away.

While we’ve heard plenty of explanations from the Rockies, and from observers, as to why Desmond will work at first base, it still seems an odd decision. Even granting that Desmond is a uniquely high-character player and that he could at least be an average hitter for the slugger’s position (though he’s only a league-average hitter for his career), the move represents a relatively enormous investment that just doesn’t come with much upside up front.

If the Rockies were so enamored of Desmond as a player and a person, perhaps the team ought to have lined up a trade for one of its left-handed-hitting outfielders. It’s reasonable to think that’d have had a reasonable chance of resulting in a pitching upgrade, at least. And it would have allowed the Rockies to take advantage of a free-agent market that was selling quality power bats for next to nothing.

While there’s admittedly some hindsight involved in that assessment, the awkward fit (barring trade) was apparent from the moment the deal was struck. And while Desmond’s future flexibility does carry value, but certainly not enough for that consideration alone to drive the signing. There’s still every chance that the contract will work out for Colorado. But every free-agent signing is a bet, and this one doesn’t seem particularly well-conceived.

Overview

This might all work out; even if not, it’s hard to criticize the Rockies too harshly for pushing some chips in. It’s always good to see a moribund franchise up its investment at an opportune time. And the unique circumstances of Coors Field certainly factor in, too, albeit in hard-to-discern ways. But from here, it doesn’t seem as if the organization got quite as much bang for its hundred-million bucks as perhaps it should have.

What’s your take on the Rockies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Mariners took steps toward relevance last season, when they finished with the seventh-best record and the fourth-best run differential in the American League. Still, at 86-76, they fell short of the playoffs for a major league-worst 15th year in a row. Team brass is ready to draw that ignominious streak to a close in 2017. Amid an aggressive, trade-packed winter, general manager Jerry Dipoto proclaimed in January that the Mariners are “plainly” in “’win-now’ mode.” Then, just after the start of spring training in February, club president Kevin Mather declared, “It is time to play October baseball in Seattle.”

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Walker, Marte, Karns, Nuno, Seth Smith, Nori Aoki, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Adam Lind, Drew Storen, Chris Iannetta, Tom Wilhelmsen, Arquimedes Caminero

Mariners Roster; Mariners Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

In his second offseason at the helm of the Mariners, Dipoto swung a whopping 15 trades, several of which figure to hugely impact the team’s chances this year. None should carry as much weight as the late-November, four-major leaguer swap that saw the Mariners give up high-potential right-hander Taijuan Walker and unproven shortstop Ketel Marte for a fellow shortstop who has shown flashes of brilliance, Jean Segura, and untested outfielder Mitch Haniger.

Jean Segura

In theory, Segura shouldn’t have difficulty serving as an upgrade over Marte, whose .259/.287/.323 batting line in 466 plate appearances made him one of the majors’ least valuable shortstops last season. However, Segura posted a near-identical line as a Brewer from 2014-15 (.252/.285/.331 in 1,141 PAs) before stunningly breaking out in Arizona last year. His success as a Diamondback came thanks in part to better pitch selection (he swung at fewer pitches than ever, both in and out of the strike zone, yet still made contact at a rate in line with career norms) and an emphasis on elevating the ball. Segura’s ground-ball rate dropped roughly 6 percent from the previous two years, while both his fly ball and line drive marks rose. That led to more hard contact and a sizable uptick in power, evidenced by career bests in home runs (20) and ISO (.181), and a stellar .319/.368/.499 line in 694 trips to the plate.

Both Segura’s production with the bat and his baserunning prowess (he stole 33 of 43 bags and ranked 15th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric) made him of the premier second basemen in baseball in 2016. Now, with superstar Robinson Cano locking down the keystone, Segura will play shortstop in Seattle. The 27-year-old has plenty of experience at short, where he lined up in Milwaukee and graded as a passable defender (two Defensive Runs Saved, minus-10.6 Ultimate Zone Rating in 4,253 innings). Segura’s work at the plate will draw more scrutiny, though, and if the gains he made last year prove sustainable, he and Cano will give the Mariners an elite middle infield.

As the most established players in the deal, Segura and Walker understandably drew the lion’s share of attention when Seattle and Arizona consummated the trade. But don’t sleep on Haniger, who will open 2017 as the Mariners’ right fielder. Haniger, 26, got his first taste of major league action last season and hit a forgettable .229/.309/.404 in 123 PAs, though he wasn’t necessarily overmatched (he did log approximately average strikeout and walk rates to go with a slightly above-average ISO). Plus, Haniger has a history of raking at the minor league level. At Triple-A Reno last year, he slashed a video game-like .341/.428/.670 in 312 attempts. It’s true that Haniger posted those numbers in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but wRC+ indicates his line was an incredible 85 percent better than the PCL average. Dipoto took notice.

“By the numbers, (Haniger) was able to show that he was the best offensive player (last year) in the minor leagues at any level,” Dipoto told Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune in January. “He’s also a right-handed batter, and we acquired him for that reason. Mitch is also the one that brings with him a skill set that includes power, and he’s got on-base ability.”

While it’s up in the air how much Haniger will boost the Mariners’ offense this season, odds are he’ll at least help their defense. Back in November, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) wrote that Haniger is a “good athlete” with “good range” and an “above-average arm.” The Mariners lacked quality defense in right last year, when their primary options – Seth Smith, Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz – combined for minus-10 DRS and a minus-9.1 UZR.

Seattle was even worse off in left, where Nori Aoki and Smith racked up minus-12 DRS and a minus-10.3 UZR between them. Those two are now out of the organization, and another trade acquisition, ex-Royal Jarrod Dyson, will take over as the Mariners’ No. 1 left fielder. The pickup of Dyson typifies the Mariners’ win-today philosophy – the 32-year-old is only signed through this season, while the player they gave up for him, 29-year-old righty Nate Karns, is controllable through the 2020 campaign.

In previewing Seattle’s offseason in October, I wrote, “Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively.” Dyson certainly checks two of those boxes. He’s not much of a hitter (.260/.325/.353 line in 1,539 lifetime PAs), but his defensive and baserunning excellence should combine to make him a valuable addition for the Mariners. Going back to 2012, the first year in which he saw extensive big league action, Dyson has amassed 53 Defensive Runs Saved and a 55.5 UZR – both of which rank among the league’s top seven outfielders over the past half-decade. On the base paths, the speedster swiped between 26 and 36 bags in each of the previous five seasons. He also finished last year with a 5.4 BsR, which placed 19th in the majors.

The other notable newcomer to the Mariners’ starting lineup is Danny Valencia, whom they acquired from the AL West rival Athletics for nondescript pitching prospect Paul Blackburn. The plan was for the right-handed Valencia to platoon with the lefty-hitting Dan Vogelbach at first base, but the former will instead open the season as the everyday option there in the wake of the latter’s minor league demotion. It’s possible the Mariners’ faith in Vogelbach will come back to haunt them. Their offseason belief that he was ready for the majors stopped them from pursuing affordable left-handed hitters like Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss and Pedro Alvarez, any of whom could have teamed with Valencia to form a satisfactory platoon. On the other hand, Valencia won’t need a partner if his recent success against same-handed pitchers continues. Once unusable versus righties, the 32-year-old combined for a .795 OPS in 602 PAs against them from 2015-16. With his performance against lefties factored in, Valencia quietly hit a tremendous .288/.346/.477 in 895 PAs during the previous two years. That type of production would certainly play at first, where the Mariners will try to hide the defensively challenged third baseman/outfielder.

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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

While the rebuilding Padres still owe a ton of money to high-priced veterans Matt Kemp and James Shields, who were traded away last season, the players on the current team will make approximately $30MM in 2017. That’s less than the salary of Clayton Kershaw, who they’ll face off against on Opening Day and likely several more times during the season. It’s no surprise that they’re the favorite to land the No. 1 pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft, but that’s all part of the plan.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

  • 1B Wil Myers: Six years, $83MM, plus $20MM club option in 2023 ($1MM buyout)
  • 2B/3B Yangervis Solarte: Two years, $7.5MM, plus $5.5MM club option in 2019 ($750K buyout) and $8MM club option in 2020 ($750K buyout)

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Despite having one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres are light on pitching prospects who are ready to contribute at the Major League level in 2017. With a talented (if largely unproven) core of young position players, led by first baseman Wil Myers, and a strong bullpen, the top priority of this offseason was to fill out the starting rotation with inexpensive veterans who can eat innings and possibly pitch well enough to draw trade interest.

At a cost of just over $8MM, they were able to fill four rotation spots for the upcoming season by signing free agents Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver to one-year deals. This rotation won’t make them a contender or even a .500 team. But each has experienced a good level of Major League success and should be able to keep games from getting out of hand on a consistent basis. At least that’s what the Padres are hoping for.

Cahill was once on his way to being one of the better young pitchers in baseball—he finished 9th in the AL Cy Young race in 2010—but his career quickly went south. He bounced back in 2016 with a terrific season out of the ’pen for the World Champion Cubs and now the Padres are giving the 29-year-old a chance to prove he can maintain that success while returning to a starting role. Chacin, also 29 years old and a once-promising pitching star for the Rockies, is trying to resurrect his career with a return to the NL West. He had a strong finish to the 2016 season (0.75 ERA over last four starts) and has a strong track record against the Padres’ division opponents. Richard signed with the Padres late last season after being released by the Cubs and impressed with a 2.52 ERA over 53.2 innings. He has not started more than nine games in a season since 2013, the last year of a four-season stint with the Padres. In Weaver, the Padres brought in a former ace who is trying to succeed with a low-80’s fastball.

Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 success story in 2016, will be the No. 5 starter, although he’ll likely have an innings limit after logging less than 150 innings as a rookie. Former prospects Jarred Cosart, Tyrell Jenkins and Zach Lee could also work their way into the mix at some point, as will rookies Dinelson Lamet and Walker Lockett. The Padres’ pair of elite pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza and Cal Quantril, are likely slated for High-A and won’t reach San Diego anytime soon.

The team’s highly suspect rotation will likely be one of, if not the worst, in baseball. But when they do hand a lead over to the bullpen, as rare as that might be, the Padres should be able to hold on for the win on most occasions. If Carter Capps can return to his pre-injury form—he had a 1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 16.8 K/9 in 31 innings in 2015 before an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery—the Padres could have themselves quite an effective group of late-inning arms. Along with Capps, who is expected to start the season on the DL, closer Brandon Maurer and lefty setup men Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand will all be highly-coveted by playoff contenders and could prove to be valuable trade chips in July. Veteran Craig Stammen, signed to a Minor League contract in the offseason, could also end up attracting trade interest if his spring performance (11.2 IP, ER, 12 K) is any indication of a return to form.

While the Padres are mostly sticking with their young position players, they did make one notable offseason addition in veteran Erick Aybar, who came to camp on a Minor League deal and ended up beating out Luis Sardiñas for the starting shortstop job. He’ll be yet another one-year stop-gap—Clint Barmes and Alexei Ramirez were the team’s Opening Day shortstops in 2015 and 2016, respectively—as Preller continues his search for the team’s shortstop of the future.

Aybar’s double-play partner will be Yangervis Solarte, who is shifting over from third base, while Ryan Schimpf (.533 slugging percentage in 330 MLB plate appearances) and former 1st Round draft pick Cory Spangenberg are competing for time at the hot corner. Top prospects and NL Rookie of the Year candidates Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, who each had late-season MLB auditions in 2016, are expected to step into regular roles in the Padres’ outfield with Jabari Blash, Alex Dickerson—once he returns from the disabled list—and Travis Jankowski each getting plenty of opportunities to prove that they should be a part of the team’s future.

Behind the plate, Padres fans will finally get to see Austin Hedges, one of the most highly-touted defensive catching prospects in recent memory, on a regular basis. After spending 2015 as Derek Norris’ backup and most of last season in the minors, he’ll get the bulk of playing time in 2017 with Norris out of the picture, Christian Bethancourt splitting time between the bench and the bullpen, and 20-year-old Rule 5 draftee Luis Torrens expected to mostly watch and learn, having never played a game above Low-A ball.

More analysis after the break …

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Orioles bought back a number of familiar faces for the 2017 team, most notably the league’s top home run hitter.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

After a giant spending splurge in the 2015-16 offseason, the Orioles quieted things down with a more traditional Dan Duquette winter.  The Orioles executive VP of baseball operations focused mostly on his usual tactics of lower-level transactions and waiting until later in the offseason to enact major business.

Mark Trumbo

The waiting game may have allowed Baltimore to save a significant chunk of money in negotiations with Mark Trumbo.  The two sides were connected in talks for much of the offseason, with the O’s reportedly making Trumbo an offer in the range of $52MM-$55MM over three or four guaranteed years but then pulling that offer a couple of weeks later.

Trumbo was said to be looking for a deal north of $70MM, though the slugger’s market was hampered by a number of factors — draft pick compensation tied to rejecting the qualifying offer, a number of other big 1B/OF/DH types available in free agency, and a general league-wide downturn in offseason spending due, in part, to the new collective bargaining agreement’s stricter luxury tax rules.  Trumbo drew some interest from the A’s and the Rockies, though with apparently no other major suitors stepping forward, he returned to the Orioles for three years and $37.5MM.

Trumbo thrived in his first season at Camden Yards, clubbing a league-high 47 homers and hitting .256/.316/.533 over 667 plate appearances.  With the Orioles building up a lot of corner outfield depth, it looks as if the majority of Trumbo’s bats will come as a DH this season, so his shaky glovework will no longer be dragging down his value.

Seth Smith is the biggest new face in the Baltimore outfield, joining the team in a trade that sent rotation disappointment Yovani Gallardo to Seattle.  Smith is himself a question mark defensively (-16.6 UZR/150 and -7 Defensive Runs Saved last season, after a career of average corner outfield grades) but he’ll only be in the lineup against right-handed pitching.  The Orioles are intending to platoon both corner outfield between left-handed bats Smith and Hyun Soo Kim and right-swinging Joey Rickard and Craig Gentry, with the latter duo providing more speed and defense than pop at the plate.

Trumbo and Smith ended up being the answers to the Orioles’ search for outfield and DH help this winter, a search that led the team to check in on such names as Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Mike Napoli, Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, and perhaps even Jose Bautista (Duquette’s unusual public statement describing Bautista as a poor fit in Baltimore notwithstanding).  Gentry’s emergence as a viable big league roster piece has also been a boost for the O’s, with Gentry enjoying a good spring as he rebounds from two injury-plagued years.

Gentry is one of many notable MLB veterans signed to minor league deals this winter, a list that includes both newcomers to the organization (such as Jesus Montero, Johnny Giavotella and Gentry himself) and re-signed Orioles like Michael Bourn, Paul Janish and Pedro Alvarez.  Assuming the bulk of these veterans remain in the organization rather than opt out, the O’s now have some experienced depth on hand should injuries develop, or if a change if needed within the many moving parts of the outfield platoon.

The Orioles had some light talks with Matt Wieters as their longtime catcher’s free agent wait extended into February, though really, the chances of a reunion between the two sides ended when Welington Castillo was signed in December.  Castillo ended up being rather an unexpected solution to Baltimore’s catching search, as the Diamondbacks surprised many by non-tendering the veteran backstop rather than pay him a healthy (an MLBTR-projected $5.9MM) salary in his final year of arbitration.

When Castillo hit the market, the O’s turned away from such rumored targets as Nick Hundley and Chris Iannetta to ink Castillo to a deal that could turn into a two-year, $13MM commitment if Castillo exercises his 2018 player option.  Top prospect Chance Sisco could be ready for the majors as soon as this summer, so Castillo provides Baltimore with a short-term veteran behind the plate until Sisco is ready.

Questions Remaining

For all the Orioles’ depth options, they’re still rather light on right-handed hitting outfielders, given Rickard’s inexperience and Gentry’s injury history.  Trumbo can play the outfield in a pinch, of course, though that leaves the DH spot open (possibly for Alvarez).  Steve Pearce, who left in free agency to join the Blue Jays, would’ve helped in this regard as a lefty-mashing bat who could provide depth in both corner spots, not to mention first or second base.

Angel Pagan was reportedly in agreement with the O’s on a major league contract this winter before he failed the team’s infamously difficult physical.  Though the switch-hitting Pagan has more recently hit better from the left side of the plate, he could have been a more stable part-time addition than Gentry or Michael Choice.

Gallardo didn’t deliver much in his lone season in an Orioles uniform, and the fact that the O’s were able to save a bit of money on Gallardo’s contract and obtain a useful asset in Smith already makes that trade an on-paper victory.  Still, Gallardo’s departure further thins out an already-questionable rotation.  The Orioles’ lack of pitching depth is already being tested since Chris Tillman will start the season on the DL with a shoulder issue, and while the injury isn’t thought to be too serious, Tillman is expected to miss as much as a month of action.

Beyond the solid Kevin Gausman, the Orioles will deploy Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley in search of bounce-back seasons and former top prospect Dylan Bundy is finally tapped for a rotation job after years of arm problems.  The O’s have a host of candidates to fill in for Tillman (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Chris Lee, Alec Asher, Gabriel Ynoa, or Logan Verrett) though this list is much longer on potential than on any sort of established track record in the big leagues.  The fact that Asher was just acquired so close to the end of Spring Training may indicate that the O’s aren’t satisfied with their internal options.  The team can make do until Tillman gets back, though pitching may again be an issue if there are any further injuries or performance struggles in the rest of the rotation.

The lack of any significant pitching upgrades stands out as the only real question of Baltimore’s offseason.  The club is obviously counting on Bundy to live up to his promise and on Jimenez/Miley to pitch more effectively, though that’s quite a bit of risk for a team that plans on contending in 2017.  The Orioles have been consistent postseason threats in the Duquette era despite a lack of top-shelf pitching, yet while one could say that they haven’t been in need of top arms to consistently win, the counter-argument is that this lack of a truly strong rotation has held the Orioles back from true consideration as World Series contenders.

Looking at the bullpen, Baltimore is going with an interesting collection of young arms to back up its dominant top four of Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, and Darren O’Day.  Vidal Nuno, Donnie Hart and Jayson Aquino are all lefties, and while the Orioles could keep two in their pen (since Britton obviously won’t be used for situation work), that third leftover arm could potentially be a trade chip, in my opinion.

Speaking of bullpen trades, the Orioles at least considered the idea of moving Brach in a deal for an outfielder this winter.  Brach drew interest from the Mets as part of the Granderson/Bruce talks and the Braves also asked about Brach’s services, with the O’s wanting Mallex Smith in return.  Clearly the Orioles had a pretty big price tag on Brach’s services, though it’s interesting to speculate about the team’s long-term bullpen plans if Brach was a potential trade chip and extension talks with Britton only seemed to go as far as two years with a club option.

The even larger extension question looming over the O’s is Manny Machado, as the two sides reportedly didn’t have much discussion about keeping the superstar beyond his scheduled entry into the free agent market after the 2018 season.  Quite a bit of money comes off the Orioles’ books next winter (Jimenez, Tillman, Smith and potentially Castillo and J.J. Hardy) so the club could be waiting to address those potential roster holes before fully exploring the $300MM+ commitment required to lock up Machado.

Deal Of Note

Despite 22 homers and a solid .249/.322/.504 slash line in 376 PA last season, Alvarez ended up settling for a minor league contract in a familiar environment.  The cold market for sluggers played a factor, though Alvarez has also not brought much to the table aside from power over his seven-year career, delivering low averages and OBP numbers as well as poor defensive metrics as a first and third baseman.

Pedro Alvarez

With these limitations in mind, Alvarez looked to improve his versatility by working out as an outfielder this winter.  Alvarez isn’t a speedster, though he also isn’t quite a lumbering slugger type; as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Alvarez has been an above-average baserunner in each of the last two seasons.

The Orioles made outfield defense a priority this winter, though as shown in the past with Trumbo, Kim and now even Smith, the team is willing to put up with some degree of subpar glovework if a player can hit.  It remains to be seen if Alvarez can viably handle corner outfield duty, though if not, he is stuck behind Trumbo, Chris Davis, and rookie Trey Mancini in the first base and DH mix.

Overview

The Orioles didn’t feel the need to overhaul a roster that was good enough to win a wild card berth, and given Duquette’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s likely that at least one or two of his under-the-radar moves will prove to be quality additions.  The real heavy lifting for the team may come next winter when, as mentioned earlier, they’ll face some big free agent departures and Machado and Britton will both be one year away from the open market.

How would you evaluate the Orioles’ winter moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Faced with the daunting prospect of making up for the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins focused on bolstering their pitching staff in hopes of staging an elusive run at the postseason.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Options Exercised

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Marlins Roster; Marlins Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The Marlins pushed to contend in 2016, but as the campaign drew to a close, it seemed destined to be defined by on-field disappointment. Then came the unthinkable, late-season death of Fernandez at just 24 years of age. His loss continues to tell in myriad ways.

A move back toward stability, though, came not long after Fernandez’s passing, when the club reached agreement on a deal to keep third baseman Martin Prado off of the upcoming open market. It was hardly a bargain rate for the sturdy (if unspectacular) performer, but Miami clearly prioritized his steadying presence at third and in the clubhouse. Prado is entering his age-33 season, but is a well-balanced player who has compiled consecutive 3+ WAR campaigns.

Feb 28, 2017; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Martin Prado (14) at bat against the New York Mets during a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Prado deal kicked off the winter a little early, and signaled clearly that the Marlins were intent upon continuing to add to their controllable core. But it also represented the organization’s only significant move on the position-player side of the equation. Otherwise, the club brought back Ichiro Suzuki after his surprisingly productive season (or was it, really?) at 42 years of age. And a largely parallel change was made in the catching corps, with veteran A.J. Ellis stepping in for the departing Jeff Mathis.

From that point forward, it was all about arms. Mid-season trade acquisitions Andrew Cashner and Fernando Rodney were allowed to leave after disappointing tenures, and key setup lefty Mike Dunn found big money with the Rockies. In the aggregate, there were multiple openings in both the rotation and the bullpen.

Miami directed fairly significant investments to both sides of the pitching staff. The 2017 rotation will feature at least two new members. Edinson Volquez, 33, landed a two-year deal off of the free-agent market, while Dan Straily brings four years of control — the first at the league minimum — with him from the Reds. (When Colin Rea was shipped back to the Padres after coming down with an injury last summer, the Marlins lost the controllable arm they wanted but also got back the key prospect — Luis Castillo — used to get Straily.) If he can overcome biceps tendinitis, bounceback free-agent signee Jeff Locke could also factor in the rotation mix, though he may be slated for long relief duty once he returns from a biceps problem.

There are numerous new faces in the bullpen, too. Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa both join the late-inning mix on two-year deals, joining holdovers A.J. Ramos (the closer), Kyle Barraclough (who gives up gobs of walks but also generates tons of swinging strikes), and David Phelps (who was suddenly outstanding last year and is capable of throwing multiple innings). The Marlins held onto Dustin McGowan with a fairly low guarantee after he turned in 67 innings of 2.82 ERA ball. Also joining the 40-man as a depth piece was righty Severino Gonzalez.

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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Rays struck an interesting balance between keeping their payroll in check and adding young talent, while also making some significant additions that point towards postseason hopes in 2017.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Rays’ offseason began with a pair of notable front office promotions.  Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom were both made senior VPs of baseball operations, while Neander was also named general manager.  President of baseball ops Matt Silverman remained atop the decision-making pyramid, this time in more of a big-picture role while Neander and Bloom focused on day-to-day operations.

This “three-headed” front office structure is a little uncommon, yet it is perhaps fitting for a team that has to be able to move in several different directions at the same time.  The Rays entered the winter, in fact, prepared to be either buyers or sellers depending on how they dealt with all of the trade interest in their rotation.  If a rival club made an offer big enough to pry Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi loose, Tampa Bay would look to rebuild after losing a cornerstone pitcher.  If a somewhat lesser arm like Drew Smyly or Alex Cobb was dealt, however,  the Rays would instead reload for another run back to contention in 2017.

After several weeks of rumors surrounding the four Rays starters, Smyly ended up being the odd man out, going to the Mariners for a three-player package headlined by Mallex Smith.  The 23-year-old Smith is still a work in progress at the plate, though he displayed outstanding speed and defense during his 2016 rookie season with the Braves.  Smith is also under team control for at least five years, whereas Smyly is a free agent after 2018 and was getting expensive ($6.85MM in 2017) in his arbitration years.

Wilson RamosIt should be noted that the Rays signed Wilson Ramos well before moving Smyly, though it could be that Ramos’ situation presented such a unique opportunity (and Tampa Bay’s long-standing need at catcher was so dire) that the team would’ve made the move whether it was rebuilding or not.  The Rays made catcher a priority this winter, looking into such names as Jason Castro and Welington Castillo before finally landing Ramos on a two-year, $12.5MM deal.

The idea of Ramos signing with the Rays would’ve been far-fetched six months ago, when the catcher was enjoying a big season with the Nationals and well on his way to a big payday in free agent.  Disaster struck, however, when Ramos tore his ACL and meniscus in the final week of the regular season.  The subsequent surgery will keep Ramos out of action until May or June, and this health uncertainty allowed Tampa Bay to get into the bidding.  Assuming Ramos is able to get back on the field and look like his old self, this could end up being a win-win for both sides — Ramos gets some security now and he’ll still be only 31 when he hits the open market again, while the Rays can potentially get an All-Star backstop at a bargain price.

Since Ramos will miss some action and require a good deal of DH time when he does return, Tampa was still active on the catcher front, landing Jesus Sucre in yet another trade with Seattle and also exploring such bigger-name options as Matt Wieters before Wieters signed with the Nationals.  That Wieters signing led to the Nats releasing Derek Norris, which in turn allowed the Rays to then land Norris on a one-year, $1.2MM deal.  Norris is an excellent pitch framer who brings more hitting upside than any of Sucre, Curt Casali, or Luke Maile, and the Rays could now shop one or more of that trio to other teams in need of help behind the plate.

Ramos’ eventual role as a part-time DH also added an interesting dynamic to the Rays’ search for help at first base, left field and designated hitter.  The rather slow market for free agent hitters allowed the Rays to at least explore several notable names (i.e. Jose Bautista, Mike Napoli, Wieters) that seemed far too expensive for Tampa Bay’s payroll limitations at the start of the winter.

As it turned out, the Rays stuck with inexpensive options and signed Colby Rasmus and familiar face Logan Morrison to one-year contracts.  Rasmus can provide cover at all three outfield positions, though his best position is in left, where he was quietly one of the game’s best defenders in 2016 with the Astros.  Morrison is at best a platoon option at first base, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brad Miller shifted back to first from second base as the season goes on.  Veteran Rickie Weeks is in camp on hand as potential platoon partner for Morrison, with switch-hitting Nick Franklin in the mix (though Franklin is better against righty pitching) and intriguing rookie Jake Bauers lurking down at Triple-A.

Turning to the bullpen, the Rays signed former Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson to a one-year contract with Tolleson looking to bounce back after a very rough season.  Waiver claim Jumbo Diaz and minor league signing Tommy Hunter round out Tampa Bay’s most notable relief additions.  The pen will take an early hit since Brad Boxberger will begin the season on the DL with a lat injury, though the Rays look to have a pretty solid relief corps behind breakout closer Alex Colome (who drew quite a bit of trade buzz this winter).

The Rays also locked down center field for years to come by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM extension.  The two-time Gold Glove winner has been an above-average run creator in two of his three seasons and he made great strides with his plate patience in 2016.  If Kiermaier can augment his excellent baserunning and otherworldly defense with more consistent hitting, it isn’t a stretch to say that he’ll become one of the game’s most valuable assets — even without much batting production, Kiermaier still generated 13.1 fWAR over the last three seasons.

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Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

After finishing among the American League’s bottom three teams in both wins (69) and run differential (minus-108) in 2016, the low-payroll Athletics tried to make a splash in free agency. Oakland’s attempt to land first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion went for naught, though, and the club ultimately emerged from the offseason having made several modestly priced signings.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart; Oakland Athletics Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The offseason didn’t unfold the way many thought it would for Encarnacion, whose five-year run in Toronto as an elite hitter didn’t lead to the nine-figure contract that seemed attainable at the outset of free agency. Encarnacion went without a deal for nearly two months before agreeing to join the Indians on a three-year contract with $60MM in guarantees. It was surprising that Encarnacion landed with the Tribe, but it was more of an eye-opener that the A’s were Cleveland’s main competition. After all, the richest contract on the A’s belongs to reliever Ryan Madson, who’s on the second season of a three-year pact worth $22MM. Encarnacion would have averaged $25MM per annum, likely over two years, had he taken the A’s offer. Reeling in the slugger would have been a boon for Oakland, which scored the fewest runs in the AL last season and has a starting first baseman, Yonder Alonso, who brings almost no offensive punch to the table.

“We knew we’d face some headwinds going in,” executive vice president Billy Beane said after losing the Encarnacion sweepstakes. “But again, we saw this as a unique player. … [W]e thought was that type of player who would have served as a real good anchor point with our young pitching and some of our other young players.”

Nearly a month before Encarnacion made his decision, the A’s partially addressed their offensive issues by awarding a two-year, $11MM guarantee to free agent outfielder Matt Joyce. That commitment has a chance to go down as one of the offseason’s biggest bargains, as the lefty-swinging Joyce has typically been a quality hitter and is coming off a career year. Then with the Pirates, Joyce slashed a terrific .242/.403/.463 in 293 plate appearances. The 32-year-old led all batters with at least 250 PAs in walk rate (20.1 percent, a notable improvement over his career 12.5 percent), which was the product of being far more selective than ever. Between 2008, his rookie campaign, and 2015, Joyce hadn’t swung at under 24.7 percent of pitches outside the zone in any individual season. Last year, though, he offered at only 18.2 percent of such pitches. He also showed some of the best power of his career, having logged his highest ISO (.221) since 2010.

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It’s fair to be skeptical of Joyce going forward – he slashed a ghastly .174/.272/.291 in 284 PAs with the Angels only two years ago, and he’s a lifetime .185/.265/.310 hitter against lefties. However, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan wrote in November, Joyce made intriguing adjustments last season, including lowering his hands and becoming less reliant on pulling the ball. Even if those gains don’t stick, though, the A’s should at least have a capable, reasonably priced platoon right fielder on their hands in Joyce, who has batted .252/.353/.449 in 2,686 career plate trips against righties.

Another newcomer, 36-year-old center fielder Rajai Davis, will join Joyce and primary left fielder Khris Davis to comprise the A’s main alignment in the grass. This isn’t the first go-around in Oakland for Davis, who was previously with the team from 2008-10. As an Indian last season, Davis wasn’t significantly better offensively than either of the A’s top two center fielders, Coco Crisp and Jake Smolinski, but he is a weapon when he gets on base. Davis is coming off a year in which he racked up an American League-high 43 steals – just seven fewer than the A’s 26th-ranked team total (50). He also finished second in the majors to Billy Hamilton in FanGraphs’ BsR metric, a stat in which Oakland ranked dead last. And while Davis was a mixed bag in center last season (minus-five Defensive Runs Saved, 3.6 UZR/150 in 595 innings), he has typically been passable there and should at least be a clear upgrade over Crisp, who registered minus-11 DRS and a minus-37.7 UZR/150 in 290 innings.

After adding Joyce and Davis to their outfield, the A’s sought to upgrade their infield and came away with third baseman Trevor Plouffe and utilityman Adam Rosales on one-year accords. A careerlong Twin until they outrighted him in November, Plouffe isn’t far removed from combining for a .251/.317/.429 line and 6.0 fWAR in 1,214 PAs from 2014-15. That type of production would be welcome for Oakland, though Plouffe struggled in the other five seasons of his career, having registered minus-0.8 fWAR largely because of subpar defensive metrics. That includes last season, when Plouffe was a negative at third (minus-four DRS, minus-17.1 UZR/150 in 519 innings) and hit a below-average .260/.303/.420 in 344 PAs. The 30-year-old does deserve some benefit of the doubt for his latest output, however, as he endured an injury-riddled campaign that featured three trips to the disabled list.

Healthy again, Plouffe will serve as the A’s No. 1 option at the hot corner, meaning Ryon Healy will mostly divide his time between designated hitter and first base. As a rookie last season, Healy played all 72 of his games at third, where he posted Plouffe-like numbers (minus-two DRS, minus-17.5 UZR/150) over 637 innings. Those struggles took away somewhat from the offensive excellence displayed by Healy, who put together a .305/.337/.524 mark in his 283-PA debut.

Rosales, meanwhile, will back up Plouffe, Healy and the rest of the A’s infielders, and he could be especially useful at second base. Starter Jed Lowrie has dealt with injury troubles throughout his career, including a left foot issue that limited him to 87 games last year, and hasn’t stood out offensively since a career year in 2013. Rosales, who was with the A’s from 2010-13, is coming off his own personal-best season. A Padre in 2016, the 33-year-old journeyman was a radically different hitter than he had been from 2008-15. Along with his best-ever batting line, .229/.319/.495 (in 248 PAs), the right-hander accrued highs in home runs (13), ISO (.266, up from a career .140), walk rate (11.7 percent) and hard contact rate (36.9 percent, far above his lifetime 26.4 percent figure). As evidenced by those numbers, not to mention a career-high fly ball rate (46.2 percent) and a bloated strikeout percentage (35.5), it’s clear Rosales sold out for gains in the power department last year. Even if his 2016 proves to be a mirage, Rosales should still give the A’s both a usable option against southpaws (.241/.318/.395 in 644 PAs) and, if Lowrie goes down again, a credible defensive second baseman (13 DRS, 6.6 UZR in 1,007 lifetime innings).

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The White Sox set a rebuilding course with a pair of Winter Meetings blockbusters in which Chris Sale and Adam Eaton were cashed in for top prospects.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

White Sox Roster; White Sox Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

When I published my White Sox Offseason Outlook on November 5th, the team had not yet tipped its hand as to the offseason direction.  GM Rick Hahn had said in August, “By the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.” Hahn wasn’t kidding.  The White Sox staked a very clear rebuilding position with back-to-back Winter Meetings blockbuster trades.  Finally, the team committed to a full teardown.

Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (78) pitches against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

First, longtime ace starting pitcher Chris Sale was traded to the Red Sox for a bevy of top prospects, led by Moncada and Kopech (pictured at right).  In Moncada, the White Sox acquired the type of player who is rarely traded: a potential perennial All-Star, on the cusp of being MLB-ready.  The switch-hitting Cuban is penciled in as Chicago’s second baseman of the future.  Moncada draws raves from prospect gurus for his power, speed, and arm.  Kopech, meanwhile, is a power pitcher who comes with “front of the rotation potential,” according to Baseball America.  Basabe, while further from the Majors, also rates as one of the team’s top ten prospects now.  The White Sox determined they could not win in the next three years with Sale, and Hahn was able to maximize the return by pitting the Red Sox against the Nationals, Astros, Braves, and others.

Barely 24 hours later at MLB’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, Hahn made a deal to send Adam Eaton to the Nationals for three pitching prospects.  Baseball America ranks Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both slightly above Kopech, and has all three in the #25-32 range among all MLB prospects.  Like Moncada, Giolito and Lopez have Major League time.  While there may be growing pains, the top assets acquired by Hahn are all close to contributing in 2017.  Dunning played the Basabe role in this deal, as a third piece who is further from the big leagues.  Eaton, 28, is at the top of his game and was the rare veteran player to be dealt with five years of remaining control.  With the Eaton trade, Hahn was able to pull off a second deal that drew raves around the industry.  The total haul for Sale and Eaton leaned toward pitching, a function of Hahn pursuing the best available young players, regardless of position.

A week later, the White Sox filled their rotation vacancy by signing Derek Holland to a one-year deal.  Holland hasn’t had a healthy, valuable season since 2013, but this is the kind of free agent signing we expect to see with a rebuilding club.  In the best case scenario, Holland has a nice first half and the White Sox are able to spin him for a useful, controllable piece in July.

Earlier this week, the White Sox locked up shortstop Tim Anderson to a precedent-setting six-year, $25MM deal.  The contract sets a new record for a player with less than one year of Major League service.  With only 115 days of Major League service under his belt, it’s difficult to project what kind of player Anderson will become.  But at age 23, he already looks like a solid two-win contributor.  And the team has a fantastic recent track record with these types of extensions, having previously signed Sale, Eaton, Jose Quintana, and Nate Jones.

Questions Remaining

With the Sale and Eaton trades occurring in rapid succession, it seemed a Jose Quintana deal wasn’t far behind.  Quintana’s availability this winter was no secret.  While the 28-year-old doesn’t have Sale’s ace reputation, he is a very good starting pitcher on a very team-friendly contract.  With a terrible free agent market for starting pitching, it was surprising no team was willing to meet the demands of the White Sox for Quintana.  The Pirates and Astros were reportedly quite interested, with the Rangers, Yankees, and Braves also connected.  Quintana is undoubtedly a major trade chip for the White Sox in the coming months.  In a February call with MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, Hahn said, “Frankly, there just hasn’t been an offer on the table that has made us feel like, ’Boy we better move now or we are going to be kicking ourselves.'”  While Hahn noted he’s feeling no economic or timing pressure on his remaining trade chips, the team is taking a calculated risk that offers will improve in future.  While a summer Quintana trade currently seems like the most likely scenario, it’s possible a deal could be struck between now and Opening Day.

Rumors were scant regarding first baseman Jose Abreu, outside of a Winter Meetings note that the Rockies were interested.  The White Sox may have run into an overcrowded free agent market, which featured more first base/DH-type bats than there were jobs.  At the lower end, players such as Brandon Moss, Mike Napoli, and Chris Carter took cheaper-than-expected deals.  Abreu, 30, is more appealing than many of those free agents, but not enough to trigger wide reported interest.

In their talks for Adam Eaton, the Nationals reportedly attempted to expand the deal to include reliever David Robertson.  Talks continued, but the Nationals and White Sox have reportedly reached a stalemate on the veteran closer.  With two years and $25MM remaining on his contract, and control problems in 2016, Robertson is not for everyone.  He’s another name to watch this summer.  Perhaps the White Sox will end up eating more money than they were willing to in the winter.  Todd Frazier, a free agent after 2017, is another veteran player who received little reported interest this winter despite hitting 75 home runs over the past two seasons.  The White Sox will be rooting for strong, healthy first halves for many veteran players, which would lead to an active July.  Hahn repeatedly said he would have liked to have made four more transactions this winter, and perhaps Quintana, Abreu, Robertson, and Frazier were the four players.

The team would also be best served moving 32-year-old veteran Melky Cabrera, who will serve as the Opening Day left fielder.  The Melk Man hit about as well as Wil Myers, Adam Eaton, or Mike Napoli last year, but his below-average defense and $15MM salary seems to have limited interest.   One quietly intriguing trade chip this summer will be Nate Jones, a fantastic reliever who is under contract for up to five more seasons.  Jones, a 31-year-old with a 97 mile per hour fastball, is far more valuable than Robertson and could be the best reliever traded this summer.  The White Sox still have a ton of trading left to do.

Aside from all the trades that have yet to happen, the other question is who is actually going to play for the 2017 White Sox.  With a team that is clearly not concerned about winning in 2017, the White Sox have a rare opportunity to use low-pressure playing time to unearth trade chips or future contributors.  Unfortunately, the roster is currently loaded with placeholders devoid of upside.  For example, the club’s Opening Day outfield could feature Cabrera, Peter Bourjos, and Avisail Garcia.  Someone has to stand out there, but hopefully Hahn can identify a few post-hype sleepers to try out in the outfield until long-term fixtures are identified.  The White Sox make a great home for players feeling the roster squeeze.  The release of Lawrie was a step in the right direction, opening up second base for cheaper options led by Tyler Saladino.  The team’s catching position is another area of uncertainty.  The club is hoping 25-year-old Omar Narvaez can keep the seat warm until 2016 first-round pick Zack Collins is ready for The Show.

Overview

In 2017, the White Sox are set to join teams like the Phillies, Reds, Padres, and Brewers as clubs undertaking rebuilds.  It’s the right move for the franchise as Hahn and company look to build a sustainable winner with a deep roster.  The Major League product will get worse before it gets better, as the White Sox will continue to clear the decks of veteran players this summer.

What’s your take on the White Sox’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

Fresh off their first World Championship since 1908, the Cubs acquired a top-shelf closer and spent modestly in free agency.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Pedro Strop, RP: Two years, $11.85MM.  Replaced one-year, $5.5MM arbitration deal for 2017.  Includes $6.25MM club option for 2019 with a $500K buyout.

Notable Losses

Cubs Roster; Cubs Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

An MLB front office never rests.  Before the buzz wore off from the Cubs’ epic World Series parade, Theo Epstein and company met with starting pitcher Jason Hammel regarding his 2017 club option, according to Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago.  Earlier this month, Hammel explained to reporters, “I love how people were saying it was a choice, because it really wasn’t.  It was either basically pitch out of the bullpen or not have a job.”  Hammel told the Cubs to cut him loose, and the team set off searching for rotation depth to complement Mike Montgomery.

It appeared the Cubs’ top priority was Tyson Ross, the 29-year-old righty who was non-tendered by the Padres in December.  Ross’ lost 2016 culminated in thoracic outlet surgery in mid-October, and the arbitration system would have required the Padres to pay him $7.68MM or more this year.  The Cubs ended up finishing second for Ross, who received a $6MM guarantee from the Rangers in mid-January.

Enter Plan B: 29-year-old southpaw Brett Anderson.  The oft-injured lefty had finally returned to the 30-start milestone with the 2015 Dodgers, and accepted that club’s $15.8MM qualifying offer for 2016.  Things quickly went sour for him, as Anderson was diagnosed with a bulging disk in his back that required surgery in March.  Anderson made his 2016 Dodgers debut on August 14th, but then dealt with a wrist sprain and a blister.  Unlike Ross, Anderson is at least MLB-ready at this moment.  Whether he makes five or 25 starts for the Cubs this year, the Cubs haven’t risked much.  Manager Joe Maddon has indicated Montgomery and Anderson may share the fifth starter job, or the team could occasionally go to a six-man rotation.

Soon after the Anderson signing, the Cubs added two more depth pieces in Eddie Butler and Alec Mills.  Both had been designated for assignment by their former teams and have an option remaining, meaning they’ll likely open the season at Triple-A Iowa.  Butler remains somewhat intriguing, as outlined by Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.

The bottom line: with a returning rotation of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey, the Cubs did not feel the need to go big for their self-created rotation vacancy.  They expressed no reported interest in free agents such as Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, or Charlie Morton, and seemingly were not involved in trade talks for Taijuan Walker, Drew Smyly, Dan Straily, or Jose De Leon.  The assumption is that Chris Sale wasn’t a consideration, given the White Sox’ likely reluctance to send their ace across town.

Feb 21, 2017; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Jon Jay poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs also took a measured approach toward center field.  Even with the luxury tax threshold in sight, the Cubs could have afforded to re-sign Dexter Fowler at the $82.5MM he ultimately received from the Cardinals.  But this is a disciplined front office, one that didn’t seem interested in giving Fowler a three-year deal during his previous free agency.  So, gone is the two or three-win player Fowler might be this year, replaced by incumbent Albert Almora and free agent signing Jon Jay (pictured).  The Cubs struck quickly to add Jay, a 32-year-old veteran who can hit for average and play an acceptable center field.  Jay will serve as a safety net for Almora, who turns 23 in April and was drafted sixth overall by the Cubs in 2012.  Baseball America describes Almora as “a potential Gold Glove winner in center.”  If he can show a tolerable bat at the bottom of the Cubs’ order, Almora will have the center field job for years.  Rather than give Fowler a risky long-term deal, the Cubs elected to accept a short-term downgrade and increased risk with center field for 2017.

You may be sensing a trend toward conservatism in the Cubs’ offseason.  Indeed, all four free agents they signed received one-year deals.  During the summer, Epstein and company actually did mortgage a piece of the team’s future, sending potential star infielder Gleyber Torres to the Yankees to rent flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman.

Feb 21, 2017; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Wade Davis poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Shortly after the Cubs became World Champions, though, prudence set in.  Record-shattering five-year deals for Chapman or Kenley Jansen didn’t interest the Cubs, who instead made a Winter Meetings deal to acquire Wade Davis (pictured) from the Royals for Jorge Soler.  The deal carries its own kind of risk, just not financial.  In Soler, the Cubs traded away four years of control of a 25-year-old with a potential All-Star bat.  However, Soler had no role in the Cubs’ crowded outfield, hadn’t impressed much in his 765 plate appearances with the team, and had battled injuries throughout his tenure.  His loss has little effect on the 2017 club.  Davis, who the Cubs control for just one year, was among the game’s best relievers from 2014-15.  However, he missed 52 days in 2016 with elbow problems.  The Cubs have said they feel confident about Davis’ health.

The Cubs also added Koji Uehara, who turns 42 in April.  Uehara is about as dominant as a reliever can be with an 87-MPH fastball, though he is an extreme flyball pitcher.  Like Davis, he’s an obvious health risk.  There’s a good chance the Cubs’ bullpen depth will be tested this year, with righties Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Justin Grimm expected to have roles.  Strop, who has a 2.65 ERA over the last three years with the Cubs, signed a team-friendly extension that added only $6.35MM in guaranteed money.

The Cubs entered the offseason without much left-handed relief depth.  After reportedly showing interest in top free agent lefty Brett Cecil in November, the club settled on Brian Duensing as their lone Major League signing for this vacancy.  Duensing, 34, spent the first two months of the 2016 season in Triple-A and later missed over two months to elbow surgery.  His effectiveness against lefties has come and gone over the last few seasons.  The Cubs added more lefty relief depth with Rule 5er Caleb Smith, but he’s barely pitched above Double-A and is a long shot to stick in a Major League bullpen all year.  Montgomery may eventually be needed to shore up the Cubs’ left-handed relief, if Anderson is able to handle the fifth starter job.

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