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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft.  As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation.  The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade.  The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.

The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer.  A dozen others could easily join them.

If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.

All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

White Sox Name Pedro Grifol Manager

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TODAY: The White Sox have officially announced Grifol’s hiring.

NOVEMBER 1: The White Sox’ managerial search has reportedly drawn its conclusion, as they’re set to hire a longtime division foe: Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol. A formal announcement is expected later this week. Changes to the coaching staff are also expected on the heels of a disappointing season, though pitching coach Ethan Katz will reportedly remain in his current role.

Pedro Grifol

Grifol, 53 later this month, has been with the Royals organization since 2013 and has served as a quality control coach, catching coach and bench coach along the way. He’s also spent extensive time in the Mariners organization, where he spent three seasons as a minor league manager before being named the club’s coordinator of minor league instructor and, eventually, director of minor league operations.

Prior to his work with the Mariners and Royals organizations, Grifol had a nine-year playing career. Selected by the Twins out of Florida State University in the sixth round of the 1991 draft, Grifol spent five seasons as a catcher in the Twins’ system and another four in the Mets’ system. He reached Triple-A with both clubs but never cracked the Majors before ending his playing career following the 1999 season.

While this will be Grifol’s first managerial gig in the Majors, he’s long been seen as a future manager. He also interviewed with the Marlins this offseason and has previously interviewed with the Tigers in 2020, the Giants in 2019 and the Orioles in 2018. Grifol landed a pair of interviews with San Francisco during that offseason’s search and was reportedly among the finalists before the team ultimately chose Gabe Kapler. Grifol was on the Royals’ coaching staff for the organization’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15 — with the latter season, of course, culminating in a World Series victory.

The Grifol hiring comes on the heels of a two-year stint that saw the White Sox bring Hall of Fame skipper Tony La Russa out of retirement to manager the club. That decision was widely believed to have been made directly by owner Jerry Reinsdorf going over the head of his front office, but the hiring of Grifol this time around likely came more directly from the front office. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Grifol impressed all parties with the ChiSox and was viewed by Reinsdorf, executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn as the best candidate.

Skeptics of the hiring can perhaps point to the fact that Grifol was twice passed over as a managerial candidate by the Royals themselves, though the first time around it appeared as though Mike Matheny was always the clear heir-apparent to Ned Yost upon the latter’s retirement. This offseason, the Royals perhaps simply wanted a fresh voice from outside the organization after an ownership change in 2019, the dismissal of longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and the aforementioned ousting of Matheny. The two clubs are also simply at different points in their competitive cycles and may thusly prefer different traits from their newly minted skippers.

While the Sox also interviewed Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Astros bench coach Joe Espada and even sat down with Ozzie Guillen about a second managerial stint on the South Side, Grifol will instead get his long-awaited first opportunity. He’ll step right into a win-now club and, given the inflated stated of the ChiSox’ payroll, likely be tasked with overseeing a similar group and coaxing better results than the team mustered in 2022. That’s not to say there won’t be any changes — longtime first baseman Jose Abreu is likely to sign elsewhere, and the Sox have potential needs at second base and in the outfield — but unlike many new skippers who step onto rebuilding clubs, Grifol should be dealt a better hand in terms of the roster he’ll inherit.

ESPN’s Buster Olney and Marly Rivera first reported that Grifol had been chosen as the White Sox’ new manager (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Sox are expected to retain Katz but make broader-reaching coaching changes.

Super Two Status Set At 2.128 Years Of Service

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This year’s Super Two cutoff has been placed at two years and 128 days (2.128) of MLB service time, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. That is a slight increase over last year, which landed at 2.116.

During last winter’s lockout and subsequent collective bargaining negotiations, the MLBPA proposed changes to the Super Two system but eventually dropped those by the time the final agreement was reached. That means the Super Two system is the same as it has been in previous seasons.

As a refresher, each player gets one day of service time for each day of the season spent on the active roster or injured list. 172 days counts as a “year,” even though a normal MLB season is 187 days long. That means a player can spend a small amount of time in the minors and still earn a full year of service time.

Each player with between three and six years of MLB service time is eligible for the arbitration process, should he and his team fail to reach an agreement on a salary. Additionally, 22% of the players with between two and three years of MLB service also qualify, with such players being labeled as “Super Two” players. Any player in that window who also spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or injured list will be eligible for four passes through the arbitration system instead of the usual three.

Until players reach free agency upon reaching six years of MLB service time, the arbitration system is the primary method of raising their respective salaries. Prior to that, teams can keep salaries at the league minimum, meaning that qualifying for arbitration early is a significant boost for a player’s earning potential. As noted in Blum’s report, the group of those now considered Super Two players includes Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena, Tony Gonsolin, and many more.

Here are the Super Two cutoffs of the last decade-plus:

  • 2021: 2.116
  • 2020: 2.125
  • 2019: 2.115
  • 2018: 2.134
  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

For all players eligible for arbitration, if they don’t agree with their respective clubs on a salary by January 13, both parties will exchange proposed salary figures with hearings then taking place between January 30 and February 17. Both sides present their cases to an arbiter, who has to choose one figure or the other, as opposed to deciding on some kind of middle point.

Royals Hire Matt Quatraro As Manager

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The Royals have settled on their next skipper, announcing Sunday night they’ve tabbed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as manager.  It’s reportedly a three-year contract that also contains a club option for the 2026 season.  This is the first Major League managerial job for Quatraro, who turns 49 years old in November.

A popular managerial candidate in recent years, Quatraro has received interviews with at least six other teams (the Marlins, Mets, A’s, Pirates, Tigers, and Giants) looking for new skippers, and he was reportedly a finalist for at least three of those positions.  Quatraro made it to the final stages of the hiring process with the Pirates, Mets, and most recently the Marlins before those teams went in other directions.  However, Quatraro will now finally get a chance to run a big league dugout, taking over a Royals team looking to turn the corner after a rebuild.

Kansas City has gone through six straight losing seasons, the last two coming after the front office made some notable (by the Royals’ standards) free agent investments meant to help the club back into contention.  After that effort didn’t pan out, longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and manager Mike Matheny were both fired, marking a new era in Royals history.  Since new GM J.J. Picollo is also a longtime member of the front office, the Royals aren’t turning the page entirely on their recent history, yet Quatraro brings a new voice to the proceedings.

Quatraro does have a past link to Royals owner John Sherman, who become a minority owner in Cleveland during Quatraro’s four-season tenure (2014-17) as the Indians’ assistant hitting coach.  That stint in Cleveland was Quatraro’s only professional experience outside of the Rays organization, beginning when he was an eighth-round pick for Tampa Bay in the 1996 draft.  After seven years as a player, Quatraro then moved into the coaching ranks, working throughout the Rays’ farm system as a coach, hitting coordinator, catching instructor, and manager.  He has spent the last five seasons on Tampa’s MLB coaching staff, first working as a third base coach before moving into the bench coach role prior to the 2019 season.

The Rays will now need a replacement as Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant, though coaching searches have become a pretty common offseason occurrence in Tampa.  Beyond just the normal turnover that often comes to coaching staffs on an annual basis, the Rays frequently lose personnel (whether in the coaching or front office ranks) to other teams looking to replicate Tampa Bay’s formula for winning on a low budget.  It remains to be seen whether Quatraro can bring some so-called “Rays magic” to Kansas City, though of course, the Royals have the 2015 World Series title as evidence the organization knows a few things about smaller-market success.

According to several reports, Quatraro was one of seven known candidates involved in the Royals’ search.  The club considered three internal candidates (bench coach Pedro Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson, Triple-A manager Scott Thorman) and four candidates from outside the organization — Quatraro, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Red Sox bench coach Will Venable, and Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan.

With the Royals’ opening now filled, it could increase the chances of Grifol heading elsewhere (perhaps even to his own managerial post since he interviewed with the White Sox).  It would stand to reason that Quatraro might want to make some of his own picks for his new coaching staff, and the Royals already have a vacancy at pitching coach after announcing that Cal Eldred wouldn’t be returning in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals were hiring Quatraro as manager. Anne Rogers of MLB.com was first to report he signed a three-year deal with an additional option season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nolan Arenado Won’t Opt Out Of Cardinals Contract

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Nolan Arenado faced another opt-out decision this offseason, but just like last year, the star third baseman has decided to remain in St. Louis. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Arenado has informed the Cardinals he won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, and he’ll now remain with the Cards and earn $144MM over the final five years of the deal.

Since Arenado’s 2021 numbers were a bit below his usual standard (.255/.312/.494 in 653 PA), passing on the opt-out last year wasn’t too shocking, yet there was some expectation that Arenado might be tempted to test the market coming off a better platform year.  The third baseman put himself into the MVP conversation in 2022 by hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs in 620 plate appearances, and he is again a Gold Glove finalist as he looks to win his 10th consecutive award.

Nolan ArenadoArenado turns 32 in April, potentially limiting his odds of adding much in the way of years to his current pact. However, it’s easy to see how he could have surpassed his current $28.8MM average annual value. Notably, fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon managed to secure an AAV of $35MM in his seven year/$245MM contract he signed with the Angels prior to the 2020 season, while Freddie Freeman’s six year, $162MM pact with the Dodgers last winter exceeds Arenado’s current deal in terms of both years and total value.

That said, Arenado’s $144MM is hardly a minor sum, and he has often spoke about his comfort level in St. Louis and his desire to remain a long-term piece of the Cardinals’ future. With this stability already in place, Arenado chose to pass on free agency, and he can now focus entirely on 2023 without the extra drama and uncertainty that follows even the names on the open market.

With Arenado’s decision now made, the Cards have checked another major task off their offseason to-do list, a few days after re-signing Adam Wainwright for the 2023 season. The Cardinals are expected to have significant room to make additions to their payroll this season, and not having to allocate additional resources to retaining Arenado should allow St. Louis to do more to address other areas of the roster. The starting rotation and outfield are possible target areas, as well as the obvious step of finding a catcher to replace retiring franchise stalwart Yadier Molina.

As The Athletic’s Nick Groke mentions, Arenado’s decision also keeps the Rockies committed to a significant financial obligation. As per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis prior to the 2021 season, the Rockies owe the Cardinals $31.5MM to cover a portion of the third baseman’s salary —  $16MM next season, and then $5MM each year from 2024 to 2026. The $16MM slated for Arenado is more than the Rockies are paying any player on their 2023 payroll, except for Kris Bryant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Large Gap Remains Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers In Extension Talks

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The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.

Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.

Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.

During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.

In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).

With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.

12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.

This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.

At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.

Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.

At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.

That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.

Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.

While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.

That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.

Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.

Cardinals Re-Sign Adam Wainwright

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Oct. 27: Dave Skretta of the Associated Press has the contract details. Wainwright will earn a base of $17.5MM, same as in 2022, but $10MM of that will be deferred. That deferred money will be paid out at a rate of $1MM per year from 2024 to 2033. He can also earn some extra cash via bonuses, getting $500K if he reaches 28 starts and another $500K at 30 starts. There’s another $500K if he finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young voting and then $50K bonuses for making the All-Star team, winning LCS MVP, World Series MVP or a Gold Glove award, and a $25K bonus for a Silver Slugger award. He will also have full no-trade protection.

Oct. 26: Adam Wainwright is continuing his career, as the Cardinals announced this afternoon that he’ll be back for a 19th season with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported Wainwright was in agreement on a one-year contract extension. Financial terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed. Wainwright is an Aegis Sports Management client.

Wainwright’s return puts to rest any questions whether he might join a pair of Cardinals icons in hanging up their spikes. Longtime battery mate Yadier Molina and Cardinals legend Albert Pujols each announced before this past season that 2022 would be their final playing years. There had been plenty of speculation the 41-year-old Wainwright would call it quits, too. Instead, he’ll be back on the Busch Stadium mound.

The right-hander pitched to a 3.71 ERA across 191 2/3 innings for the Cardinals this season. It was yet another reliable season for the veteran, who made 32 starts for the second-straight season. His results did dip a little from 2021, when he posted a 3.05 ERA and finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting. However, that year was helped out somewhat by a .256 opponents BABIP, and his FIP came in at exactly 3.66 in both 2021 and 2022. He did experience a dip in velocity on his fastball from 89.3 mph to 88.1 mph, though, and his strikeout percentage fell to 17.8%, down from 21% in 2021.

Of course, Wainwright has never thrived on a power arsenal. He’s succeeded into his 40’s thanks to excellent control and a knack for keeping hitters off balance with his trademark curveball. This year’s 6.7% walk rate wasn’t far off the prior season’s 6% mark. Wainwright also led all qualified starters in called-strike percentage, compensating for a lack of whiffs by freezing opponents by mixing his pitches inside the strike zone.

Wainwright’s re-signing solidifies the team’s rotation heading into the off-season. Miles Mikolas is signed through 2023, while mid-season trade acquisition Jordan Montgomery is arbitration-eligible for the final time, and both figure to be rotation mainstays. The backend of the rotation still has some question marks, though. Injuries contributed to Steven Matz struggling in his first season in St Louis, but he’s under contract for three more seasons and should at least have an opportunity to start the season in the rotation. Jack Flaherty is under control via arbitration for one more year, and while he’s also had injury problems for a while now, he figures to have a shot in the rotation if healthy.

With the uncertainty surrounding Matz and Flaherty and the potential free agent departure of Jose Quintana, St. Louis could look into fortifying by adding another rotation arm at the back end. The bigger priority, however, seems to be on the position player side. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters this morning the club would look externally for catching help to replace Molina. The team is also hopeful of their chances of retaining star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’ll have to decide whether to opt out of the final five years and $144MM remaining on his deal.

It’s presently unknown how much Wainwright will make next season, although he’s coming off a one-year, $17.5MM salary. Mozeliak suggested the team planned to raise its payroll from this year’s approximate $155MM Opening Day mark.

On a more personal note, Wainwright’s return means he’s likely  to reach the 200-win milestone for his career. Owner of 195 career wins, he’ll have a chance to surpass Jesse Haines’ 210 wins for second on the Cardinals all-time leaderboard.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

David Stearns Steps Down As Brewers’ President Of Baseball Operations

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10:08am: At a press conference announcing his decision, Stearns stated that he’s “not going anywhere” and will remain in Milwaukee. That, of course, doesn’t rule out pursuing opportunities in the future, but it’s a rather firm declaration that for the time being, he has no plans to join another organization. Rather, Stearns added that he’s “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests.”

8:35am: David Stearns is stepping down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations but will remain with the club in an advisory capacity, the team announced. General manager Matt Arnold will now oversee the baseball operations department.

David Stearns

It’s a surprise shakeup atop the Brewers’ baseball operations department, as Stearns has built a reputation as one of the most widely respected baseball execs in the game since taking over the reins in Milwaukee. He’d been under contract through the 2023 season.

“This is not an easy decision for me and is something I have been wrestling with for a long time,” Stearns said in a prepared statement. “[Owner] Mark Attanasio and I have had an open dialogue and we both knew this day could eventually come. It has been a priority for both of us that any transition would take place while the organization is in a healthy position with solid leadership and a talented roster going forward. That is certainly the case today.”

“I’m very grateful to Mark and all of our staff for their support and efforts throughout my tenure with the Brewers,” Stearns continued. Matt [Arnold] and I both arrived in 2015 and he is more than ready for this next opportunity. I am committed to serving as a resource to Matt as he sees fit as the organization moves through this transition.”

Of course, the announcement will prompt immediate speculation about whether Stearns might ultimately be headed elsewhere. The team noted that he’ll serve ownership and the baseball ops department as an advisor, and Stearns himself suggests within those comments that he’ll remain with the organization for the time being to help guide Arnold and others through the transition. Nonetheless, his departure from such a prominent role could pave the way for his eventual departure altogether.

For instance, the Mets have pursued Stearns, a New York native, for their vacant president of baseball operations post in each of the past two offseasons but been denied permission to interview him. Mets owner Steve Cohen eventually landed on Billy Eppler to lead his baseball operations staff, but Eppler was given the “general manager” title, leaving the door open for a president to be appointed atop the hierarchy.

That said, Stearns could well be of appeal to a broad number of teams seeking a veteran baseball operations leader over the course of the next year. The Harvard grad has been running baseball operations for the Brewers since 2015 and, prior to that, was an assistant GM in Houston, a director of baseball operations in Cleveland (a role he shared with current Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey).

As for Arnold, he’ll receive autonomy over a baseball operations department for the first time in his career. Hired away from the Rays in 2015 to serve as an assistant GM under Stearns, Arnold was promoted to the title of general manager in 2020. Arnold, like Stearns, had been drawing interest from other teams in their front office search, and the bump to the GM’s chair made it more difficult for other teams to pursue him (as clubs are generally only permitted to interview other teams’ executives if they’re offering a promotion).

Despite holding the GM title for the past two years, the 43-year-old Arnold has been second on the team’s operations hierarchy until today’s announcement. He’s spent more than 20 years working in baseball ops, however, serving as Tampa Bay’s director of player personnel in addition to holding a variety of roles in scouting, player development and player analysis for the Dodgers, Reds and Rangers over his career.

That Arnold is the one now assuming oversight of the department leaves the Brewers with some more continuity than the standard changing of the guard, but the change in leadership is nevertheless a seismic shift for the Brewers. Attanasio called Stearns’ impact on the club “transformational” in his own statement today, adding that he’s “disappointed” in the decision but also “grateful” to Stearns for the past seven years.

It’s easy to see why. Prior to hiring Stearns in 2015, the Brewers had won only two division titles dating back to 1969 and had reached the postseason on just four occasions. Milwaukee won the NL Central in both 2018 and 2021 under Stearns’ leadership and reached the playoffs in four consecutive seasons, from 2018-21.

Along the way, Stearns, Arnold and their staff built out a powerhouse rotation headlined by draftees Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, as well as trade acquisitions such as Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser. (Woodruff was drafted by the prior regime in 2014 but, as an 11th-round pick, is still a player development triumph for the organization as a whole.)

A look up and down the Brewers’ roster reveals one of the most trade-dependent clubs in the Majors. In addition to Peralta, Lauer and Houser, Stearns oversaw trades that brought Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe and Luis Urias into the organization. His most infamous swaps include the lopsided Christian Yelich acquisition from the Marlins and the trade that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to Houston in return for Houser, outfielder Brett Phillips and Josh Hader.

Stearns has drawn his share of flak for trading Hader to the Padres at this summer’s deadline despite the fact that his team was in contention for what would be a third NL Central title under his watch. The now-former Brewers president has since acknowledged that the move had a larger impact on the clubhouse than he anticipated. However, threading the needle by acquiring controllable talent in exchange for players with dwindling club control (at or near peak value) is a reality for most small- and mid-market front offices. (Hader will be a free agent next winter and has a projected $13.6MM salary in arbitration.)

In general, though, it’s fair to say that Stearns’ willingness to act boldly on the trade market has benefited the Brewers more often than it’s harmed them. Now, those decisions will ultimately fall to Arnold. It’s impossible to say for certain whether he’ll have the same affinity for aggressively attacking the trade market, but given Arnold’s roots in an ever-active Rays organization, seven years working alongside Stearns and a massive arbitration class, the Brewers are likely in for another active offseason.

Adam Wainwright Planning To Retire After 2023 Season

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright spoke with the media today, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, on the heels of the announcement that he and the club had agreed to a contract for 2023. In discussing the deal, Wainwright admitted that 2023 will be his final season.

“I could tell you yes, but then there’s a whole lot of hoopla you’ve gotta go through,” Wainwright said in response to a question about whether this would be his final run. “Long story short: yes, this’ll be the last one. Just everybody relax, don’t freak out about it.”

Prior to 2022, fellow Cardinal legends Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols announced that they were entering their final respective seasons. There was plenty of speculation that Wainwright might eventually decide to ride into the sunset with them, but he has instead decided to mount up for another campaign, which will evidently be his last. Wainwright turned 41 years old in August and will therefore be set to retire shortly after his 42nd birthday.

Wainwright is currently sitting on 195 career wins and will certainly crack the 200 plateau as long as he’s able to stay healthy. He is setting his sights higher than that, however. “The number I’m looking at is not 200, the number is 210,” Wainwright said, per Jones. Getting to 210 would allow Wainwright to tie Jesse Haines for second place on the all-time Cardinals list, behind only Bob Gibson’s 251. Wainwright also added that he would like to catch John Smoltz, who logged 213 career victories.

Regardless of how the 2023 campaign ultimately goes, Wainwright will finish with a fine career résumé. Making his debut back in 2005, he’s already appeared in 457 games, starting 390 of those and logging 2,567 1/3 innings. He has a career ERA of 3.38 over that time while notching 2,147 strikeouts. He’s made three All-Star teams, won a couple of Gold Gloves and was a World Series champion in 2006 and 2011 (though he missed the entirety of the latter championship season due to Tommy John surgery). That’s already a tremendous career, though he will have one more season to try to add to his personal accomplishments and grab one last World Series ring before hanging up his spikes.

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