- Duquette On Blue Jays, Snider, Reimold
- Brewers To Sign Neal Cotts
- Phillies Sign Chad Billingsley
- Marlins Sign Ichiro Suzuki
- Braves To Sign Eric Stults
- Omar Minaya Joins MLBPA As Senior Adviser
- Blue Jays, Ronald Belisario Agree To Minor League Deal
- Latest On Blue Jays’ Search For Relief Pitching
- Giants Release Marco Scutaro
- Angels Avoid Arbitration With David Freese
Trade Rumors Apps
- Non-Tender Tracker
- Non-Tender Candidates
- 2014-15 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions
- Trade Rumors iOS App
- Trade Rumors Android App
- MLBTR Podcast
- 2014-15 MLB Free Agent Tracker
- 2015 MLB Free Agent List
- 2014-15 Offseason Outlooks
- 2014-15 Free Agent Profiles
- 2015 Arbitration Tracker
- Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2015
- Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
- Reverse Standings
- 2016 MLB Free Agent List
- Transaction Tracker
- DFA Tracker
- Agency Database
- Hot Stove Glossary
- MLBTR On Facebook
- MLBTR On Twitter
- MLBTR Mobile
- MLBTR On Kindle
- Team Twitter/RSS Feeds
- Team Facebook Pages
- Hoops Rumors
- Pro Football Rumors
- Fredi Gonzalez Entering Final Year Of Contract
- Quick Hits: Joba, Beachy, Eovaldi, Clippard
- West Links: Luhnow, Reimold, Angels, Dodgers
- AL East Notes: A-Rod, Red Sox, Hendrickson
- Rays Notes: Moncada, Boxberger, Teaford
- Duquette On Blue Jays, Snider, Reimold
- Giants Designate Chris Dominguez For Assignment
- Pirates Outright Jake Elmore
- Brewers To Sign Neal Cotts
- Phillies Sign Chad Billingsley
- Phillies Designate Cesar Jimenez For Assignment
- Minor Moves: Paulino, LaHair, Marjama
- Marlins Sign Ichiro Suzuki
- Blue Jays To Sign Ramon Santiago To Minor League Deal
- Braves To Sign Eric Stults
MLBTR Mailing List
Rumors by team
- Angels Rumors
- Astros Rumors
- Athletics Rumors
- Blue Jays Rumors
- Braves Rumors
- Brewers Rumors
- Cardinals Rumors
- Cubs Rumors
- Diamondbacks Rumors
- Dodgers Rumors
- Giants Rumors
- Indians Rumors
- Mariners Rumors
- Marlins Rumors
- Mets Rumors
- Nationals Rumors
- Orioles Rumors
- Padres Rumors
- Phillies Rumors
- Pirates Rumors
- Rangers Rumors
- Rays Rumors
- Red Sox Rumors
- Reds Rumors
- Rockies Rumors
- Royals Rumors
- Tigers Rumors
- Twins Rumors
- White Sox Rumors
- Yankees Rumors
2015 MLB Free Agents Rumors
As we finish the year, here are the top 10 remaining free agents (per the rankings of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes). MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth provided an update two weeks ago, but six players already signed or will play in Japan. New notes have emerged on most of the others. Last-minute shoppers still have a choice of a couple top pitchers and a variety of veterans.
1. Max Scherzer — The 30-year-old has yet to see his market pick up, but that’s par for the course with Scott Boras. Scherzer is said to be seeking over $200MM. During the last couple weeks, we learned three teams are distancing themselves from Scherzer – the Yankees, Cardinals, and Giants. Of course, such statements could be posturing, especially when large sums of money are involved. MLBTR readers predict a return to Detroit, with the Yankees a close second.
3. James Shields — The Giants are said to be deciding between spending on Shields or a left fielder. All indications point to San Francisco as the top candidate to land the righty, who turns 33 today. The Red Sox, who have also been tied to Shields, could be out, based on GM Ben Cherington’s comments.
20. Colby Rasmus — Rasmus’ market may be heating up as the free agent outfielder cupboard grows bare. The Twins aren’t in on Rasmus, but the Orioles are one possibility. The Cubs also showed interest earlier last week. Teams may have difficulty gauging Rasmus’ value. Early in his career, he had a falling-out with the Cardinals, and last season the Blue Jays demoted him to a reserve role.
22. Asdrubal Cabrera — With the dearth of free agent middle infielders, Cabrera should remain popular until he signs. After trading Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies may be one of the only teams looking at him as a shortstop. Meanwhile, the Giants are probably out, given the acquisition of Casey McGehee. The Twins, A’s, and Mets are also saying they’re uninterested.
36. Francisco Rodriguez – The rumors thus far for the Boras client can be best described as “crickets.” The White Sox were tied to him shortly before they signed David Robertson. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote a free agent profile on Rodriguez, ultimately concluding that a two-year, $14MM deal was a good estimate. Few teams need closers, and Rodriguez is probably best suited to a pitchers park. He’s been homer-prone since joining the Brewers in 2012. MLBTR readers selected Rodriguez as the most desirable reliever of the remaining closers.
37. Rafael Soriano – Like Rodriguez, Soriano has yet to be tied to any teams. Jeff profiled Soriano and concluded that a two-year, $12MM deal could be within reach. However, his late-season collapse for the Nationals probably complicates his market. With the deep supply of excellent relievers, the demand for proven, mid-market closers may be down.
38. Ryan Vogelsong –Teams are quickly scooping up mid-priced pitching. However, steady, low-ceiling veterans like Vogelsong have yet to draw much public interest. The last week saw a bevy of injury-prone, higher-upside pitchers like Brett Anderson, Kris Medlen, and Gavin Floyd sign substantive contracts. As teams look to shore up the backs of their rotations, Vogelsong should draw more rumors. The Giants are out, and the Twins showed interest prior to signing Ervin Santana.
39. Aaron Harang – After a nice rebound season that included a 3.57 ERA over 204 1/3 innings, Harang, 37 next season, has drawn mild interest from the Rockies. The slightly fly ball prone righty is seemingly a poor fit for Colorado’s high-octane park. The Braves are keeping tabs on his market, and they remain open to re-signing him. MLBTR’s Zach Links predicted a two-year, $14MM payday.
40. Nori Aoki – The leadoff hitter consistently posts a solid average and on base percentage, but he swatted just one home run for the Royals last season. Aoki, 33 in January, was an option to re-sign in Kansas City before they inked Alex Rios. The Orioles reportedly have “lukewarm” interest in Aoki, while the Reds have also been tied to the left-handed outfielder. Charlie predicted a two-year, $16MM contract for Aoki.
42. Stephen Drew – Earlier this month, we learned Drew is drawing broad interest despite a painful 2014 campaign. Drew, 32 next season, hit just .162/.237/.299 in 300 plate appearances after signing mid-season. With shortstop so thin league-wide, some team will take a chance on him recapturing his .256/.322/.425 career numbers. The Mets are the most closely tied to Drew, although plenty of teams could use a low-risk middle infielder. Charlie pegged him for a one-year, $7MM deal to rebuild value.
With the Winter Meetings behind us, it’s likely most of this offseason has already happened, and it’s been a barn burner, with a number of surprising signings and huge trades, and big bursts of activity from the Red Sox, White Sox, Dodgers and Padres in particular.
With that in mind, here’s one view of how the divisional picture has changed, with a look at where each of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents have signed (or agreed to terms) by division. Although 33 of our top 50 free agents are off the market, this is just a snapshot at this point in time. In particular, the No. 1 and No. 3 free agents (Max Scherzer and James Shields) remain unsigned and will have a dramatic effect on divisional spending once they do come to terms.
4. Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox ($88MM)
5. Pablo Sandoval, Red Sox ($95MM)
8. Russell Martin, Blue Jays ($82MM)
16. Chase Headley, Yankees ($52MM)
17. Andrew Miller, Yankees ($36MM)
18. Justin Masterson, Red Sox ($9.5MM)
TOTAL = $362.5MM
The historically deep-pocketed AL East has so far lived up to its reputation, thanks largely to the Red Sox. Boston continued a team makeover that began at last season’s trade deadline by spending more on top-50 free agents this winter than three entire divisions, while also adding Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Anthony Varvaro and Ryan Hanigan in trades. The Blue Jays, too, have been very active, adding not only Martin, but also Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders via the trade market. The Yankees haven’t had a splashy offseason by their standards, although they retained Headley and signed Miller to help compensate for the loss of David Robertson. The Orioles have been quiet so far but are ultimately likely to add an outfielder, while the cost-cutting Rays’ biggest signing has been Ernesto Frieri, who will make a base salary of just $800K.
6. Victor Martinez, Tigers ($68MM)
7. Melky Cabrera, White Sox ($42MM)
11. Ervin Santana, Twins ($55MM)
13. David Robertson, White Sox ($46MM)
25. Adam LaRoche, White Sox ($25MM)
30. Alex Rios, Royals ($11MM)
31. Edinson Volquez, Royals ($20MM)
33. Torii Hunter, Twins ($10.5MM)
TOTAL = $277.5MM
The Tigers are in win-now mode, the Royals are trying to take advantage of their World Series run, and the White Sox hope to quickly build a foundation around Jose Abreu and Chris Sale, so it’s been a busy offseason in the AL Central. Chicago not only added Cabrera, Robertson and LaRoche, but also signed non-top-50 pitcher Zach Duke to a significant contract and traded for Jeff Samardzija. The Royals (who have also added Kendrys Morales and Kris Medlen, along with Rios and Volquez) and Twins have also been active, and the Tigers could still make a splash by re-signing Scherzer. Even the Indians, who have otherwise had a relatively quiet winter, added Brandon Moss. In any case, the top two spending divisions this offseason have been in the American League, which is nothing new.
TOTAL = $236.5MM
The Cubs also traded for Miguel Montero, while the Cardinals added Jason Heyward. The Reds and Brewers haven’t spent much (although the Brewers’ trade for Adam Lind isn’t reflected here), and the Reds have dealt Mat Latos in preparation for the potential departures of a number of key pitchers following the 2015 season. But the Pirates (despite losing Martin) have spent heavily for a small-payroll team, with their deal to re-sign Liriano more than doubling their previous largest-ever free-agent contract. (It was Martin’s two-year, $17MM deal, in case you were wondering.) And, of course, the Cubs, after five straight seasons of 87 or more losses, finally appear set to contend with the addition of an ace to complement their young hitting.
10. Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks ($68.5MM)
14. Brandon McCarthy, Dodgers ($48MM)
26. Jake Peavy, Giants ($24MM)
35. Sergio Romo, Giants ($15MM)
46. Brandon Morrow, Padres ($2.5MM)
48. Brett Anderson, Dodgers ($10MM)
TOTAL = $168MM
The total above doesn’t reflect the level of activity in the NL West this offseason — the Padres and Dodgers have dominated this month’s headlines with trades (including one with one another), and the Giants could still add Shields. The Padres (who were also serious bidders for top free agents before heading to the trade market) have already acquired Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers, and a potential trade of Cole Hamels to San Diego could be their most earth-shaking move yet. They also appear likely to add No. 49 free agent Josh Johnson. On the other side of the scale, the Diamondbacks have traded away Montero, Miley and Didi Gregorius.
The number of big trades in the NL West this offseason surely reflects the fact that all its teams except the World Series-winning Giants have new front offices (although the Rockies have been quiet even with a new GM in place). Despite the hype surrounding the Padres and Dodgers, though, and the addition of Yasmany Tomas, the division that lost more games (421) than any other in 2014 might have lost talent overall, given the departures of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
TOTAL = $142MM
The Athletics, who have dealt Donaldson, Samardzija, Moss and Derek Norris while losing Lester, Lowrie and Gregerson to free agency, are clearly retooling, and the Rangers haven’t done much after their disastrous 2014 season, perhaps hoping they’ll improve next season merely by having someone stay healthy. The Angels traded Howie Kendrick and are in luxury-tax purgatory, while the Mariners lost out on Melky Cabrera and have had a quiet offseason aside from the Cruz signing and a couple relatively small trades. That leaves the Astros, who have signed three top-50 free agents to bolster their middle infield and bullpen as they slowly rebuild after six straight losing seasons.
TOTAL = $81MM
Here’s baseball’s quietest division, at least on the free agent market. The Marlins, who have acquired Latos, Dee Gordon and perhaps Dan Haren in addition to Morse, appear to be the only team in the division adding talent at the big-league level. The Nationals have few obvious needs and won the NL East by 17 games in 2014 — for perspective, the difference between first and last place in the NL Central was also 17 games. So perhaps it’s not surprising that the Nats haven’t been overly active, aside from their widely praised haul in the three-way Myers trade. With a major headache on the horizon as Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Ian Desmond, Tyler Clippard and Denard Span all become eligible for free agency after the season, they won’t have the luxury of inactivity next winter. The Braves (who have traded Heyward and Upton while also losing Santana) and Phillies (who dealt Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers) appear headed for periods of hibernation, while the Mets agreed to terms with Cuddyer early in the offseason but otherwise haven’t yet done much to add to a 79-win 2014 team.
Now that the smoke has cleared after an extremely busy Winter Meetings, here’s a look at the top ten remaining free agents available (based on Tim Dierkes’ early-November ranking of the top 50 free agents), with updates on each. We’ll assume here that Brandon McCarthy, whose pact with the Dodgers has is not yet confirmed, is off the market.
1. Max Scherzer — Six weeks into the offseason, it’s Jon Lester, and not Scherzer, who has dominated discussions, but that’s mostly because Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras, often prefers to have his clients sign later in the offseason. A reunion with the Tigers appears possible for Scherzer, although a Tigers official recently said a new deal for Scherzer was “not happening.” The Yankees also appear to be a possibility for Scherzer, who is reportedly looking for at least $200MM.
3. James Shields — The Red Sox are an obvious match for Shields, despite all the starting pitching Boston has already added. The Giants also seem keenly interested in Shields. Shields has also met with the Rangers, although GM Jon Daniels has said the club was mostly just doing due diligence.
7. Melky Cabrera — The Mariners appear to be the clear favorites here, although reports indicate that neither the Mariners nor the Orioles are willing to go beyond three years. Cabrera is reportedly the Royals’ top priority to (re-)join their outfield as well.
12. Kenta Maeda — It still isn’t clear whether the Hiroshima Carp will post Maeda this winter. If they do, expect the Diamondbacks to have interest. Teams in the pitching market who lose out on Shields or Cole Hamels could be possibilities as well. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has flown to Japan to watch Maeda pitch.
16. Chase Headley — The Yankees continue to be connected to Headley, with the Giants (who, of course, lost Pablo Sandoval already this offseason) in the mix as well. Before the Winter Meetings, it was rumored that a mystery team had offered Headley four years and $65MM. (Another report had the Astros offering Headley five years and $65MM.) One would think the four-year, $65 offer (which went way over the four years and $48MM MLBTR projected) would have seemed like a good deal for Headley, but he remains on the market a week and a half later. Some within the industry reportedly doubted that offer was legitimate.
20. Colby Rasmus — The market for Rasmus has been fairly quiet, with the Orioles and Royals lurking as possibilities. And even there, the Royals reportedly only see Rasmus as a backup plan in case they’re unable to land Cabrera. Rasmus has talent and youth on his side, but his strikeout numbers and his benching by the Jays are concerns. Still, the lack of a clear market for Rasmus seems a little incongruous, given that he’s 28 and produced a 4.8-fWAR season in 2013.
21. Jed Lowrie — The Giants have asked about Lowrie as a potential addition at third base or second (in which case Joe Panik would move to third). Lowrie is reportedly looking for a three-year deal, with the Mets and Marlins as potential landing spots along with the Giants.
22. Asdrubal Cabrera — The Giants have inquired about Cabrera as a potential third baseman as well, only to be told that he would rather play up the middle. The Royals have shown interest in Cabrera, but they might not have much use for him unless they can move Omar Infante. The Mets, on the hunt for a shortstop, reportedly have more interest in Lowrie or Stephen Drew than in Cabrera. Given Cabrera’s recent defensive struggles, it’s hard to imagine a team signing him to start at shortstop at this point, so if he’s not willing to play third, he might be limited to second.
26. Jake Peavy — The market for Peavy has been rather quiet, which isn’t a surprise, given that the pitching market only recently broke open with Lester’s signing. The Marlins have been connected to Peavy, and Miami might be a possibility for him if Dan Haren retires, although the Marlins’ acquisition of Mat Latos probably makes a signing less likely. The Dodgers have also had discussions with Peavy, although that was reported before we learned they were deep in talks with Brandon McCarthy.
27. Hiroki Kuroda — At last check, Kuroda had reportedly not yet decided whether to pitch in the Majors next season (in which case he might return to the Yankees) to pitch in Japan, or to retire. He remained a durable and effective starter even at age 39 last season, so the Yankees could certainly still use him if he were to decide to return.
The ninth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.
This is the fourth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers. Last year 4,443 people entered, with Mark Fenske taking home the batting title with 13 correct picks out of 48, a .271 average. Ed Creech topped MLBTR writers with 11 correct. The contest is back for 2015 and is open now! You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 7th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point (I will certainly make changes up until the end). A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest. Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you’ll be making predictions, along with my guesses. Player names are linked to our Free Agent Profiles.
Please note that I’ve given up on trying to create a scenario where all 50 signings fit together, so you’ll see some redundant picks where multiple players are listed for a team that could only sign one of them. I looked at each player individually and made a pick.
1. Max Scherzer – Yankees. Scherzer is the best starting pitcher in a free agent market loaded with quality arms, a 30-year-old strikeout machine with a Cy Young award on his resume. Including the postseason, he tallied a 3.08 ERA in 461 1/3 innings spanning 2013-14. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal seems out of reach, as does its $30.7MM average annual value. A better target would be something closer to the total outlay the Yankees made last winter for Masahiro Tanaka: seven years, $175MM. Extension talks with the Tigers broke down in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The Kershaw, Tanaka, and Zack Greinke deals all included opt-out clauses, something agent Scott Boras will likely seek as he negotiates on behalf of his best free agent starting pitcher since Barry Zito. As he has before, Boras may attempt to bypass GMs in favor of convincing a team’s owner to invest. The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability. And we can’t count the Tigers out entirely quite yet.
2. Jon Lester – Cubs. Lester, a 30-year-old southpaw, posted a 2.46 ERA this year in 219 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics. He was actually better this year than Scherzer in terms of ERA, and the two share identical 3.58 career marks. Owing to a midseason trade to Oakland, Lester is ineligible for a qualifying offer. Unable to work out an extension with Lester, the Red Sox traded him, but both sides have made an offseason reunion sound more likely than it usually is when a pending free agent star is dealt. However, the Cubs are viewed as the industry favorite for Lester, given Theo Epstein’s time in Boston, the Cubs’ need for frontline starting pitching, and their large spending capacity this winter. Lester should command at least the six years and $147MM Greinke received two years ago, and potentially more.
3. James Shields – Red Sox. The last of the Big Three starting pitchers of the 2014-15 offseason, Shields would have been the best available starter in a lot of previous winters. Big Game James has been a workhorse throughout his career with the Rays and Royals, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 regular season innings this year. He’s less of a strikeout pitcher than the two hurlers listed above him, he turns 33 in December, and he received a qualifying offer. The Red Sox are expected to make a push for him if they fail to sign Lester, but he could certainly land with any of the teams we listed for Scherzer and probably a few more. Shields could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more, though some teams will likely stop at four years given his age.
4. Hanley Ramirez – Yankees. Ramirez is the best available free agent position player this year. The Dodgers and previous GM Ned Colletti were unable or unwilling to extend him, leaving shortstop an open question for 2015 for new chief Andrew Friedman. Ramirez is a premium right-handed bat at a time when offense is harder to come by, yet he managed only 214 games from 2013-14 due to injuries. He also comes with defensive question marks as a shortstop, and could spend much of his next deal at the hot corner. The new Dodgers regime could re-engage Ramirez, but otherwise his market is unclear. The Yankees, Giants, Mariners, and Tigers are speculative matches, though there’s no perfect fit at this point. A six-year deal is likely for Ramirez, and he has a shot at reaching seven years like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury did last winter.
5. Pablo Sandoval – Giants. Sandoval, 28, is immensely popular in San Francisco, padding his postseason heroics this year. The third baseman, nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, flashed 30 home run power in 2011, but averaged fewer than 16 longballs per 150 games in the three seasons that followed. A great bad-ball hitter, the portly switch-hitter seems likely to be paid on his postseason reputation more so than his recent regular season results. The thin market for free agent bats doesn’t hurt, either. The Giants and Sandoval have mutual interest in a new deal, while the Red Sox are the oft-cited alternative. The Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Marlins, and Brewers are a few other teams that don’t have third base entirely locked down. Sandoval’s weight could give some teams pause, but if an older player like Choo received seven years, it has to be a possibility for Sandoval as well. The average annual value may fall short of $20MM, on a six or seven-year deal.
6. Victor Martinez – White Sox. Martinez experienced a well-timed renaissance at age 35, hitting .335/.409/.565 with a career-high 32 home runs in 641 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had one of the best offensive years in the game, let alone among free agents. Since he turns 36 in December and spends most of his time at designated hitter, he’ll fall short of the contracts received by Hanley Ramirez and Sandoval. He’s said to be seeking a four-year deal, which would be risky for any team but is justified based on his 2014 performance. The White Sox hope to steal him away from their division-rival Tigers, while the Mariners, Orioles, Angels, and Rangers could be other possibilities.
7. Melky Cabrera – Blue Jays. Cabrera has an argument for the best free agent outfielder in this year’s class. A switch-hitter, Cabrera is a 30-year-old left fielder who doesn’t strike out often. He has a PED blemish on his resume, and like the three bats above him, he’ll require draft pick forfeiture to sign. We’re still expecting a five-year deal approaching $70MM. The Blue Jays will attempt to retain him, and the Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers, Mets and Cubs could be other possibilities.
8. Russell Martin – Cubs. As the only catcher on this list and possibly the only viable free agent starting option at the position, Martin is in the catbird seat. A career-best .402 on-base percentage further bolsters his case, and he’s known as an excellent defender and handler of pitching staffs. The Pirates made a qualifying offer and extend their budget to try to re-sign him, but he’d make a fine upgrade over Welington Castillo for the Cubs. The Dodgers could also get involved, and Martin would be an upgrade for the White Sox, Rockies, Tigers, Astros, and Mariners as well.
9. Nelson Cruz – Orioles. Cruz led all of MLB with 40 home runs this year, and he socked two more in the ALDS. His type of power is extremely difficult to find these days, and the qualifying offer won’t crush his market like it did a year ago. At that time, Cruz was coming off a PED suspension. His age, 34, is another deterrent, and he’s limited defensively as well. A four-year deal in the $60-70MM range is possible this time. The Orioles will attempt to re-sign him, while the Mariners could be more convinced this time around after coming close to signing him last winter.
10. Yasmany Tomas – Phillies. Tomas is a unique free agent, in that he defected from Cuba this year and will be just 24 years old. A right-handed hitting corner outfielder with huge power, Tomas comes with a lesser reputation and less certainty than countryman Jose Abreu did a year ago, yet Tomas could still top Rusney Castillo’s $72.5MM record for a Cuban player (set in August). That could mean a seven-year deal worth around $100MM. Tomas makes sense even for rebuilding teams, bringing the Phillies into play. Earlier this month, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez also named the Rangers, Padres, Giants, Mariners, and Dodgers as other teams with strong interest.
11. Ervin Santana – Giants. A qualifying offer and high asking price forced Santana into a late one-year deal with the Braves last winter, but he should have a better outcome this time around as one of the best second-tier pitchers. He’s a durable arm to plug into the middle of any rotation. 32 in December, Santana has averaged 207 innings from 2010-14. His strikeout rate jumped to 8.2 per nine this year, his best mark since ’08. The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Giants figure to be in the market for starting pitching.
12. Kenta Maeda – Astros. Maeda, 27 in April, is the next big thing out of Japan. The right-handed starting pitcher is expected to be posted by the Hiroshima Carp in November. Assuming multiple teams reach the $20MM posting fee maximum, it will be open bidding among those clubs afterward. As a team that fell short on Tanaka last year, the Astros could bring Maeda in to front their rotation for less than the Big Three starters will cost. Most of the teams named for Ervin Santana could be possibilities here.
13. David Robertson – Cubs. Robertson is the best free agent reliever this winter, and the 29-year-old may be aiming to top Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM deal. Indeed, a reliever of Robertson’s caliber hasn’t hit the free agent market since Papelbon three years ago. The Yankees tendered a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer, which Robertson should easily turn down in search of a career payday. The Cubs and White Sox are other potential fits given large amounts of payroll space and protected first-round picks.
14. Brandon McCarthy – Pirates. McCarthy came up big after a July 6th trade from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees, posting a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts. The cerebral righty has a history of shoulder problems, however, and 2014 was his first time topping 170 2/3 innings. That might make an Edwin Jackson-level four-year deal hard to come by, but it’s easy to picture a dozen different teams showing interest.
15. Francisco Liriano – Red Sox. The 31-year-old southpaw may come out seeking a four-year deal, but like McCarthy, low innings totals might prevent him from getting it. Liriano brings lots of strikeouts and grounders but plenty of walks too. He had a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh; will that success carry over to a new team? Liriano also carries the weight of a qualifying offer, so teams with protected first-rounders like the Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks could be better fits.
16. Chase Headley – Red Sox. Headley is one of the game’s best defensive third basemen. The 30 home run power he showed in 2012 looks like a fluke, but he remains an above average hitter who draws a good share of walks. Unlike Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Aramis Ramirez, Headley is not eligible for a qualifying offer. He seems in good position for a four-year deal. The Yankees may look to bring him back as A-Rod insurance, while the Red Sox might be their primary competition if they can’t sign Sandoval. The Giants and Brewers could consider Headley if Sandoval and Aramis Ramirez move on, respectively.
17. Andrew Miller – Tigers. Miller’s stock rose dramatically after a dominant 2014 campaign. He’s a hard-throwing lefty with a nasty slider and a huge strikeout rate, and he also kept his walks in check for the first time this year. Unlike Robertson, Miller is not eligible for a qualifying offer. He could be the first non-closing reliever to snag a four-year deal since 2007, and it’s easy to name a dozen potential suitors who would love to plug him into the eighth or ninth inning.
18. Justin Masterson – Cubs. Masterson, 30 in March, was very good in 2011 and ’13 when he was able to keep his walk rate in check. The lanky righty has a bowling ball sinker and the groundball rate to back it up. The Indians were unable to lock him up long-term, trading him to the Cardinals on July 30th. Masterson struggled with both teams, but knee inflammation was a mitigating factor. The Cubs are a good fit given the Theo Epstein connection and Masterson’s Midwest upbringing, but it’s likely a dozen teams will show interest in the pitcher. There’s a good chance he gets multiyear offers, but he may prefer one year to rebuild value.
19. Aramis Ramirez – Brewers. Ramirez, 36, still might be a top ten hitter as a third baseman, and he was basically Sandoval’s equal with the bat this year in the regular season. Ramirez has spent his entire career in the NL Central, most recently with the Brewers. They’ve picked up their side of his $14MM mutual option, and we believe Ramirez will turn down his side to keep his options open and try for a two-year deal. If a compromise can’t be reached with the Brewers, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels, and Giants could be fits. UPDATE: Ramirez has accepted his side of the mutual option, preferring to play on a one-year deal.
20. Colby Rasmus – White Sox. Rasmus, a young free agent at age 28, hits the market coming off a disappointing season in which he lost his starting role with the Blue Jays. He has a pair of star-caliber seasons on his resume in 2010 and 2013, but he struggled mightily in 2011, ’12, and ’14. He offers big power and has little free agent competition as a center fielder, but he also strikes out a lot and has struggled to hit left-handed pitching. His market will open up considerably if he is willing to play a corner outfield position. He should receive multiyear offers but may prefer one year. The White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Giants could be possibilities.
21. Jed Lowrie – Blue Jays. Lowrie, 31 in April, might be the best middle infielder on the free agent market now that J.J. Hardy has signed an extension with the Orioles. The power Lowrie showed from 2012-13 is rare among shortstops, but his production dropped off this year, his second with Oakland. Lowrie’s negative defensive runs saved figures from each of the last three seasons back up his reputation as a shaky defender, and his market would widen if he’s open to second base. Assuming the A’s can’t afford a possible three-year deal to bring him back, the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Reds, and Dodgers could be suitors.
22. Jason Hammel – Twins. Hammel is a quality mid-tier starting pitcher. The 32-year-old posted a 3.47 ERA for the Cubs and A’s this year with an 8.1 K/9 rate. He was useful in 2012 as well, but has had some off years and has never reached 178 innings in a season. He still should be able to find a two or three-year deal. Aside from the Twins, the Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Pirates, and Giants could make sense.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera – Mets. Cabrera is neck-and-neck with Lowrie for the top free agent shortstop position. He’s got consistent home run power and good durability. Like Lowrie, his defense has been questioned and an openness to second base would help. Any of the clubs listed for Lowrie could be fits for Cabrera, as we at MLBTR pegged them for very similar contracts. It could come down to a matter of preference between the two middle infielders for those teams.
24. Nick Markakis – Orioles. The Orioles chose a $2MM buyout over Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option, so it wasn’t surprising when they also declined to make a qualifying offer. Markakis has settled in as a durable right fielder with a solid OBP. Without a qualifying offer, that might be enough for a four-year deal. The Orioles are the only team he’s ever known, but if they are unable to re-sign him, the Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Mets, Reds, and Giants could be fits.
25. Adam LaRoche – Padres. LaRoche, 35 this month, posted a career-best .362 on-base percentage in 2014. He also popped a healthy 26 home runs, third among free agents. One negative is that he has been ineffective against left-handed pitching. The Nationals recently chose a $2MM buyout over LaRoche’s $15MM mutual option, and chose not to make a qualifying offer. Without that encumbrance, LaRoche can try for a three-year deal but may still settle for two. The Brewers are off the board for LaRoche after acquiring Adam Lind, but the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins may look to upgrade at first base. The Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, and Angels could make sense in some scenarios.
26. Jake Peavy – Cubs. Peavy enters free agency for the first time in his career, and the 2007 Cy Young winner is now a mid-rotation starter. He posted a 3.73 ERA for the Red Sox and Giants this year. His stock improved given a 2.17 ERA in San Francisco, even if he won’t be able to repeat the 3.2% home run per flyball rate he experienced there. His agent may seek a three-year deal, but two seems more likely. Peavy seems likely to weigh factors other than money heavily in his decision. He likes the idea of a free agent package deal with buddy Jon Lester, though the Cubs aren’t likely to sign all three pitchers for which they’re listed here. There should be plenty of suitors for Peavy, but his personal preference will play a big role.
27. Hiroki Kuroda – Retirement. Kuroda, 40 in February, has been a lock for about 200 innings and a sub-4.00 ERA for the past five seasons. He’s always had great control, and brought his walk rate down to 1.6 per nine this year for the Yankees. Currently, it’s unclear whether Kuroda will pitch in 2015. If he does, his options figure to be limited by choice, but he’s at least not burdened by a qualifying offer. A return to the Dodgers, his first MLB team, is worth considering, especially because his family still lives in the area. On that note, the Angels shouldn’t be ruled out either.
28. Mike Morse – Rangers. Morse is a productive right-handed bat. He’s mostly played the outfield corners and first base in his career, but more time at designated hitter might help keep him healthy and limit runs lost due to subpar defense. The Rangers, Indians, Royals, Athletics, and Padres could be fits on a likely two-year deal.
29. Michael Cuddyer – Mariners. Cuddyer is similar to Morse on this market: a corner outfielder/first base bat who should probably focus on the American League for a chance to act as a designated hitter semi-regularly. Cuddyer, 36 in March, averaged 93 games per season on his three-year Rockies contract due to injuries but hit exceptionally well there, including solid road numbers in 2013-14. The Mariners figure to be in on him, and the Orioles, Rangers, and Mets are other possibilities. UPDATE: Cuddyer received a surprising qualifying offer from the Rockies, and stands a good chance of accepting it.
30. Alex Rios – Giants. If Morse and Cuddyer are best-served as bat-only players, the outfield market this year is pretty thin. Rios could be a cheaper alternative to Markakis. He’ll be 34 in February and is coming off a replacement-level performance, owed in part to an injury-plagued August. Rios isn’t much of a power or walk threat, but he hits for average, mashes lefties, and generally avoids the DL. A one-year deal to rebuild value makes sense, and the Giants, Mets, Twins, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Phillies, and Reds could be fits. Rios switched to the Boras Corporation for representation on the eve of his free agency.
31. Edinson Volquez – Braves. As a 31-year-old coming off a 3.04 ERA for the Pirates, Volquez is in good shape for his first two or three-year deal. His 6.5 K/9 this year was a career-low for any full season, but his 3.3 BB/9 was a career-best and he still gets groundballs and throws hard. There’s upside here, and it could interest teams like the Braves, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, and Diamondbacks.
32. Luke Gregerson – White Sox. Gregerson has long been one of the game’s top setup men, and he posted a career-best 2.12 ERA this year. Over his six years in the Majors, he leads MLB in holds. Gregerson limits free passes, keeps the ball on the ground, and stays healthy. He gets it done without throwing hard, but it should be noted that he’s spent his career in pitchers’ parks and hasn’t been as good on the road. Gregerson seems a lock for a healthy three-year deal, and the White Sox, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Yankees, and Dodgers figure to be among the teams seeking relief help.
33. Torii Hunter – Rangers. Hunter, 39, continued to show consistent right-handed power this year with 17 home runs. However, his poor defense in right field negated much of his value, so remaining in the American League seems wise. He’s leaning toward playing in 2015 and hopes to remain with the Tigers. Otherwise, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Mariners, and Rangers could take a look at him.
34. A.J. Burnett – Royals. Burnett turned down a $12.75MM player option with the Phillies, preferring to pitch for a contender in 2015 even if it means taking less money. Burnett, who will turn 38 in January, had an off year with the Phillies as his walk rate jumped up to 4.0 per nine. With teams like the Orioles, Nationals, and Mets not seeking starting pitching and the Yankees probably not seeking a reunion, Burnett may have to relax his oft-cited preference to play near his Maryland home if the Red Sox and Pirates aren’t interested.
35. Sergio Romo – Dodgers. Romo, 32 in March, was removed from the Giants’ closing role in late June. As a flyball pitcher, he can be prone to the home run, but even this year his strikeout and walk rates suggested the skills for the sub-3.00 ERAs he strung together from 2010-13. He should find a strong three-year deal somewhere, especially if he’s open-minded about pitching the eighth or ninth inning. If the Giants don’t re-sign Romo, the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Cubs, Rockies, and Dodgers could be in the mix.
36. Francisco Rodriguez – Blue Jays. K-Rod returned to the ninth inning with a 44-save season with the Brewers. Saves don’t pay like they used to, and Rodriguez did allow 14 home runs in 68 innings. Still, a solid two-year deal should be attainable with any of the teams listed above for Romo, or the Brewers if he takes a discount.
37. Rafael Soriano – Astros. Soriano has cashed in on saves with multiple previous contracts. With the Nationals this year, he saved 32 games but lost his closer job in early September. He’s still a useful member of a bullpen, capable of ERAs in the low 3.00s despite extreme flyball tendencies.
38. Ryan Vogelsong – Giants. Vogelsong, 37, didn’t appear in the Majors from 2007-10, but has re-established himself as a solid #4 starter. The Giants could use the innings he provides, but the other teams listed for Hammel and Volquez would also make sense.
39. Aaron Harang – Giants. Released by the Indians in March, Harang went on to toss 204 1/3 innings of 3.57 ball for the Braves. The durable 36-year-old veteran would make a solid addition to the back end of someone’s rotation on a two-year deal. Remaining in the NL and in a pitcher-friendly park give him the best shot at repeating his 2014 numbers, but he should garner interest from AL clubs as well.
40. Nori Aoki – Reds. A three-time Nippon Professional Baseball batting champion, the Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki three years ago. He was traded to the Royals last December. Aoki, 33 in January, has a .353 career on-base percentage in MLB. A left-handed hitter, Aoki has actually hit southpaws better than righties for the past two seasons. He’s known for some circuitous routes in right field, but his defensive numbers are acceptable. Aoki seems in line for a multiyear deal, and could fit with the Reds, White Sox, Twins, Mets, and Giants. The Royals are also believed to be interested in retaining him.
41. Billy Butler – Mariners. Butler is limited to American League teams where he can spend most of his time at DH. A right-handed bat, he turns 29 in April. He’s slugged just .396 over the past two seasons, and this year his walk rate dropped to a career-worst 6.8%. The Royals have declined his club option, and he may need to find a new home. The Mariners, Orioles, Indians, A’s, and Rangers are potential matches, and the Mariners have been connected to him multiple times in recent offseasons.
42. Stephen Drew – Athletics. Drew was saddled by a qualifying offer last winter and did not find the offers to his liking. The shortstop sat out until May 20th, removing the draft pick cost from the equation and signing for a pro-rated version of the $14.1MM qualifying offer with Boston. He was flipped to the Yankees at the trade deadline in a rare deal between the AL East rivals. Perhaps it was the long layoff, but Drew was brutal with the bat in 2014. Still, there’s no question he can play a capable shortstop, and that’s not as certain for Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera. Drew figures to sign his third consecutive one-year free agent deal. The A’s, Yankees, Astros, Mets, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Nationals are all possibly seeking help in the middle infield.
43. Emilio Bonifacio – Braves. Bonifacio offers speed, defense, versatility, and relative youth, although he doesn’t hit much. He’s the free agent leader for wins above replacement at both second base and center field, though that’s more a function of the weak market at those positions. As a super-utility guy on a two-year deal, he could provide depth for a lot of teams.
44. Casey Janssen – Dodgers. Janssen, 33, posted a 2.46 ERA from 2011-13 but posted a 5.65 mark in the final three months of 2014. He suffered a case of violent food poisoning over the All-Star break and wasn’t the same afterward. Given his track record, he could be a bargain buy for the many teams seeking late-inning relief.
45. Pat Neshek – Astros. Neshek, a 34-year-old sidearmer, signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals in February and went on to make the All-Star team. He posted a stellar 1.87 ERA in 67 1/3 innings overall, appears in line for a two-year deal and could fit in the bullpen of contending clubs and non-contenders alike.
46. Brandon Morrow – Dodgers. Morrow, 30, has been limited to 212 1/3 innings over the last three seasons due to an oblique strain, an entrapped radial nerve in his forearm, and a torn tendon sheath in a finger on his throwing hand. He still averages 94 miles per hour on his fastball, and he wants to continue as a starting pitcher rather than a reliever. The fifth overall draft pick in 2006, Morrow should battle Brett Anderson as this winter’s most attractive high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher. Those types generally draw a long list of bargain-seekers, though teams in pitcher-friendly environments should be more appealing to the player.
47. Jason Grilli – Yankees. Grilli, 38 in November, re-emerged as an effective reliever with the Pirates in 2011. The Bucs sent him to the Angels in a change of scenery swap for Ernesto Frieri in late June this year. Grilli did solid work for the Halos and should be a popular late-inning option.
48. Brett Anderson – Twins. Anderson, just 27 in February, is a tantalizing free agent. He set a career-high with 175 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2009 with the A’s, and has seen injuries pile up since. He tallied only 123 frames for all of 2012-14 due to Tommy John surgery, a broken foot, and surgeries his back and a broken finger this year. It would make sense for him to focus on a pitcher-friendly ballpark as he looks to re-establish himself, and Minnesota was among the teams to show interest before he was traded to the Rockies last year.
49. Josh Johnson – Padres. Johnson, 31 in January, was the prime high-risk, high-reward starting pitcher from last offseason. He had Tommy John surgery in late April, however, so 2015 will be an abbreviated campaign at best. Johnson’s front-rotation abilities are getting further in the rearview mirror, but his potential if healthy remains interesting. The Padres turned down a $4MM club option, but Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick said, “His first choice is to go back to San Diego.”
50. Jung-ho Kang – Orioles. After hitting 38 home runs in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2014, Kang could be the first position player to make the leap from KBO to MLB. MLBTR spoke to an international scouting director who finds Kang fringy at shortstop, suggesting he’s better suited for second or third base. He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop. That still has value.
We’re listing Japanese pitcher Chihiro Kaneko as an honorable mention at this point, as it’s not certain he’ll be posted. We’re also keeping Cuban defectors Hector Olivera and Jose Fernandez in this section because of the uncertain timeline of their potential free agency.
Other honorable mentions: Kendrys Morales, Joba Chamberlain, Rickie Weeks, Chris Capuano, Gavin Floyd, Roberto Hernandez, Chris Young, Neal Cotts, Burke Badenhop, Zach Duke, Chad Billingsley, Luke Hochevar, Geovany Soto, A.J. Pierzynski, Tsuyoshi Wada
The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has announced the official class of free agents for the upcoming offseason. Click here to find the complete list, along with an excellent foreword (featuring an interview with lefty Andrew Miller) that was penned by MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes.
121 players will hit the open market, according to the MLBPA. Former teams will enjoy a five-day exclusive negotiating window before the newly-minted free agents will be eligible to sign with any club.
Of course, MLBTR will be all over the free agent news and rumors as they unfold over the coming months. Be sure to keep an eye on our list of current free agents, which will be updated as the market moves. And, of course, MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker will keep you up to date on the deals that have been completed. Tim will unroll his top fifty free agent list in the coming days as well, so be sure to keep an eye out for that.
Our 2014-15 MLB Free Agent Tracker is here! The tracker lists all free agents who had at least 20 Major League innings or 50 plate appearances in 2014. You can currently filter by position and handedness. Once the information is available, you can filter by qualifying offer status, signing team, and contract terms.
The tracker can always be found under the Tools menu up top, or under MLBTR Features on the sidebar. We also have all the players in list form, which can be found here.
As I did last year, I’ve taken the liberty to compile Fangraphs leaderboards for the most notable players that will be eligible for free agency following the season. Those who enjoy playing GM — and if you read this site with any regularity, you presumably do — can filter each leaderboard to their liking to see which potential free agents are the best fits with a club’s specific needs.
Fangraphs leaderboards will allow you to sort hitters both by position and by statistics. Everything from basic stats like average and homers, advanced metrics like wRC+ and wOBA, or batted-ball metrics like line-drive rate and HR/FB is available. If you click the “Fielding” tab near the top of the page, you can check out sortable defensive metrics as well. On the pitching side of things, everything from ERA to FIP to swinging-strike rate to fastball velocity can be found. You can also set each leaderboard to include data from previous seasons to increase the sample size.
For the purposes of this post, I’ve created four leaderboards (Note: These are not MLBTR’s rankings of free agents. They are sorted by Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement but can be sorted by any stat under any tab on the leaderboard simply by clicking that stat. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings will be published after the season, and the latest version of our Free Agent Power Rankings was published earlier in the month):
- Free agent position player leaderboard
- Free agent starting pitcher leaderboard
- Free agent right-handed relief pitcher leaderboard
- Free agent left-handed relief pitcher leaderboard
It’s also worth noting that I included any player who is eligible to become a free agent following the season. Though club options for players such as Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Hisashi Iwakuma and others are locks to be exercised, I thought it best to simply include all players rather than make judgement calls on more borderline cases. If you’d like any such players removed, you can simply highlight their name under the “Custom Players” section near the bottom of the page and click the X to the right of the column, then generate a new, updated list.
If you see any notable omissions, please, of course, let us know. The cutoff used for these leaderboards is the same that we typically use for our Free Agent list here at MLBTR: 50 plate appearances for hitters or 20 innings pitched for pitchers. These lists also include significant players that did not take the field in 2014 such as Josh Johnson and Luke Hochevar. Their stats will be available if you expand the leaderboards to include seasons prior to 2014.
Thanks to Fangraphs.com for the ease of use that led to creating these leaderboards!
The qualifying offer system turned Kyle Lohse's name into a verb following the 2012-13 offseason. Lohse didn't sign a free agent contract until late March, a long wait that was attributed to Lohse turning down the Cardinals' one-year, $13.3MM qualifying offer the previous November, and thus attaching the price of a first-round draft pick to any team that wanted to sign him.
Lohse, at least, ended up with some solid long-term security in the form of his three-year contract from the Brewers. This offseason's four free agents who "got Kyle Lohse'd" haven't been nearly so lucky in finding a multiyear commitment. Ervin Santana, coming off a 3.0 fWAR/2.9 rWAR season in 2013, could only find a one-year, $14.1MM contract and had to wait until almost the middle of March to find it. Nelson Cruz, who posted an .833 OPS with 27 homers in 2013, could only find a one-year deal worth $8MM from the Orioles. As for Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew, it's almost mid-April and both players remain unsigned.
While such factors as defensive limitations, injury worries and (in Cruz's case) PED histories limited the quartet's market, the qualifying offer stands out as the biggest reason why Santana and Cruz were limited to one-year deals, and why Morales and Drew are still available. Teams simply weren't willing to give up first- or second-round draft picks in order to make major commitments to these players, while other similar free agents (i.e. Jhonny Peralta or Matt Garza) who didn't require draft pick compensation were able to find four-year contracts.
No free agent has accepted a qualifying offer in the two years that the system has been in place, yet as ESPN's Jayson Stark noted today, "clubs are already getting the vibe from some agents that player/agent strategy is about to change — and players will be far more open to taking qualifying offers next winter." Next year's qualifying offer will be in the range of $15MM for a one-year deal, so while players will be giving up long-term security, they'll still make significant money for accepting a contract. A National League executive tells Stark that teams could employ a tactic of offering a multiyear deal to players who accept a qualifying offer in order to both spread the money out and to give the player more security.
As Lohse himself tells Stark, however, settling for a one-year qualifying offer may be profitable but it goes against the spirit of free agent. "I know we're fortunate to be making the money we're making. But when you get that option where you only have a one-year deal, you don't have any security," Lohse said. "To penalize guys who, in my case last time, have put in 10 or 11 years, and to lock me into a situation where I only have the opportunity to get a one-year deal…it puts guys in a totally different situation that have worked so hard to get to where they want to be." Another issue, as Lohse notes, is that a player who accepts a one-year qualifying offer deal could find himself stuck in the same position the next offseason.
I'd argue that player/agent relations could be another factor in the decision about accepting a qualifying offer process. If an agent advises his client that a one-year qualifying offer is the best option, a player who has waited years for free agency (as Lohse described) and is coming off a strong enough season to merit a qualifying offer in the first place might not accept this advice and seek out a new agent instead. Granted, unrealistic contract expectations may have played a part in why Cruz (reportedly looking for a $75MM deal) and Santana (looking for a nine-figure contract) drew such limited interest on the open market, but agents pride themselves on finding the best possible deals for their clients and don't want to be seen as "settling" on a one-year deal for a client coming off a good season.
Being open to accepting a qualifying offer could, conversely, become a tactic unto itself for players, Stark notes. If players are more open to accepting these offers, teams could be more wary of extending them in the first place to so-called "borderline" free agents. The Red Sox might not have risked Drew accepting their offer, for instance, as the team seemed eager to give Xander Bogaerts an everyday role at shortstop. (Boston did explore re-signing Drew for a one-year deal, but likely not at a $14.1MM price.)
There's still a ton of baseball to be played before we reach the 2014-15 offseason, of course, and still to early to speculate about which of the 2015 free agents stand out as possible candidates to be "Kyle Lohse'd" — or, maybe this term is now "Kendrys Morales'd" or "Stephen Drew'd." Still, given how this most recent offseason has played out for Morales, Drew, Cruz and Santana, do you think we'll see at least one free agent bite the bullet and accept a qualifying offer in November?
We're always looking ahead here at MLBTR, sometimes way ahead, hence our recent publication of the 2014-15 free agent class. These players project for free agency after the 2014 season, two seasons from now. We know plenty of them will sign extensions between now and then, but it's still fun to discuss.
Joining This Group Later
After the 2013 season, several players have club options that seem likely to be exercised, such as James Shields and Jon Lester. That means they'll play out the 2014 season and then become free agents.
The Under-30 Group
Clayton Kershaw, Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Colby Rasmus, Homer Bailey, and Chris Perez are among those who will play the 2015 season at an age below 30. Kershaw and Andrus, in particular, are primed for monster contracts barring major hiccups in the next two seasons. Kershaw will turn 27 in March of 2015, and the Dodgers' ace seems the best candidate to soar past the $200MM mark whether through an extension or free agency. Andrus, meanwhile, will enter the 2015 season as a 26-year-old. It takes a special kind of player to put in six years of Major League service time by that age.
The 2014-15 free agent class is deep at shortstop at the moment, with Andrus, Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, and perhaps Hanley Ramirez. Sandoval, Chase Headley, and Nick Markakis are potential middle-of-the-order bats in a market that appears light on them. Perhaps someone like Melky Cabrera can post a couple of strong seasons to solidify his status. Otherwise you're looking at a 39-year-old David Ortiz or 35/36/37-year-olds Josh Willingham, Adam LaRoche, Victor Martinez, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Cuddyer.
Kershaw and Justin Verlander represent a pair of true aces who will seek record-setting contracts, should they reach free agency. Verlander will turn 32 prior to the 2015 season. I realize he's not like most pitchers, but the list of seven-year megacontracts given to 32-year-olds is a short one for good reason. At any rate, it'll be fun times at MLBTR if both pitchers reach free agency, but there's a pretty good chance the Dodgers lock up Kershaw. Beyond those two, Max Scherzer, Shields, and Lester comprise a strong second tier. Homer Bailey, Justin Masterson, and Brandon McCarthy can join them with a pair of strong seasons. And who knows what the mid-30s will bring for Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy.
How accurate can we be, analyzing a free agent class two years early? Aside from all the guys who will be plucked off the market early due to extensions, some players will just see their stock plummet. For every Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton, there's a Stephen Drew, a guy who I considered a $100MM contract candidate two years ago.
MLBTR’s up-to-date list of 2014-15 MLB free agents is below (using a criteria of 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the 2014 season). These players are currently free agents. Linked names will take you to that player’s Free Agent Profile. You can look at free agent signings by team with our Free Agent Tracker.
Ryan Doumit (34)
Gerald Laird (35)
Wil Nieves (36)
Mark Ellis (38)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Jonathan Herrera (30)
Chris Valaika (29)
Rickie Weeks (32)
Everth Cabrera (28)
Jonathan Herrera (30)
Donnie Murphy (32)
Jayson Nix (32)
Cole Gillespie (30)
Tony Gwynn Jr. (32)
Scott Hairston (35)
Reed Johnson (38)
Jason Kubel (33)
Ryan Ludwick (36)
Nolan Reimold (31)
Eric Young Jr. (30)
Scott Hairston (35)
Nate Schierholtz (31)
Ryan Doumit (34)
Jason Giambi (44)
Raul Ibanez (42)
Jason Kubel (33)
Scott Baker (33)
Brandon Beachy (28)
Bruce Chen (38)
Kevin Correia (34)
Roberto Hernandez (34)
Kyle Kendrick (30)
Paul Maholm (33)
Brad Mills (29)
Franklin Morales (29)
Alexi Ogando (31)
Joe Saunders (34)
James Shields (33)
Carlos Villanueva (31)
Randy Wolf (38)
Chris Young (36)
Mike Adams (36)
Matt Albers (32)
John Axford (32)
Burke Badenhop (32)
Jared Burton (34)
Joba Chamberlain (29)
Kyle Farnsworth (39)
Matt Guerrier (36)
Matt Lindstrom (35)
Dustin McGowan (32)
Chris Perez (29)
Jose Veras (34)
Brian Wilson (33)
Jamey Wright (40)
Joe Beimel (38)
Sean Burnett (32)
Phil Coke (32)
Franklin Morales (29)
Joe Thatcher (33)
Cot’s Baseball Contracts was used in the creation of this list.