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20 Baseball Contracts Over $200MM

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Not long ago, the $200MM threshold was one rarely breached by MLB contracts. It has become increasingly common. Now, you might say, $300MM is the new bar for the most rarefied air. But the $200MM club is still rather exclusive, with just twenty members.

Typically, we evaluate contracts based upon the new money actually promised in the deal. That is, we don’t count already guaranteed future money when we write about contract extensions. But that’s not the only reasonable way to discuss cash, depending upon what you’re trying to measure. (And that’s all before considering deferrals and other major contractual elements.) In this case, what we’re hoping to examine is the biggest overall commitments teams have made to players.

MLB’s 20 biggest-ever contract commitments:

1. Mike Trout (Angels, $426.5MM): Is it possible to earn this much more than any other player, despite signing extensions rather than inking an open-market deal, and still remain a bargain? Well, yeah, if you are one of the absolute best baseball players ever to take the field. Joe Posnanski just graded Trout the 27th greatest player of all time based upon his accomplishments through his *rubs eyes disbelievingly* age-27 season. It was hardly surprising when the Halos added ten years and $360MM to the preexisting deal between the parties. This contract won’t actually kick in until 2021, so it’s impossible to evaluate it, but Trout was his typically unbelievable self last year and has yet to show any signs of slowing down.

2. Bryce Harper (Phillies, $330MM): It took a super-long, 13-year pact to get Harper to this level — the biggest contract ever when inked. But he wanted to ride out his career in one uniform and the Phils were willing to enter new contractual territory to bring him over from the division-rival Nationals. The first season wasn’t a barn-burner, with Harper producing good but hardly superstar-level numbers at the plate, but he’s still just 27 years of age and has plenty of time to make good on the deal.

3. Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins, $325MM): Another 13-season behemoth, this pact was inked years earlier than Harper’s and included opt-outs. The Yankees took over the contract after Stanton’s 2017 MVP season. While he has mostly produced high-end offensive numbers since putting pen to paper, he has also encountered some health issues and missed most of the 2019 season.

4. Gerrit Cole (Yankees, $324MM): The bidding got out of hand quickly as Cole flew past prior starting pitcher contracts and became the first (and thus far only) hurler to break the $300MM barrier. The contract didn’t just set a new high-water mark for overall guarantee to a pitcher; it also topped Trout with a monster $36MM average annual value over its nine-year term. We’re still waiting to see how this deal plays out.

5. Manny Machado (Padres, $300MM): As with the Harper deal, Machado’s was premised in no small part on the fact that he was still youthful enough that a lengthy and massive investment could pay huge dividends over a long period of time. This one went for ten years, so Machado is actually out-earning Harper on an AAV basis. He also turned in a good but underwhelming debut season with his new club.

6. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees, $275MM): This was one of the first monster deals of the MLBTR era. Tim Dierkes wrote at the time that “$28MM would be a pretty fair deal for him, maybe even a bargain.” Nobody could’ve foreseen the craziness that ensued — Biogenesis, talk of voiding the deal, a surprisingly civil mid-2016 retirement, etc. — but it was eminently reasonable to make the deal at the time. As it turned out, Rodriguez contributed only 23.1 rWAR from that point forward, though the fact that it seems underwhelming only serves to show just how good he was.

7. Nolan Arenado (Rockies, $260MM): This deal included $234MM in new money — a huge amount for a mid-tier spender but also a fair sum for one of the game’s most consistently productive position players. Though Arenado was as productive as ever in 2019, the Rox took a step back and had to consider trade scenarios over the offseason.

8. Alex Rodriguez (Rangers, $252MM): A-Rod opted out of this one, setting the stage for the already-covered pact. The original $252MM contract was perhaps the most successful ever deal of this magnitude. Rodriguez racked up 56.4 rWAR over the seven seasons that were completed before he exercised the exit clause.

9. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers, $248MM): It seemed questionable at the time for the Detroit organization to make this kind of commitment two years before Cabrera was slated for free agency. But nobody could’ve expected the kind of collapse that has occurred since. Cabrera is an all-time great hitter but has dealt with health issues and doesn’t profile as a highly productive mid-to-late-thirties player.

10. Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, $245MM): Strasburg is the chief protagonist in the tale of the Nationals’ rise, intervening disappointments, and eventual 2019 triumph. It’s fitting that he’ll likely end up spending his entire career in D.C., and Strasburg has shown he can dominate even without top-shelf velocity, though it’s also quite a risk on a 31-year-old hurler who has had his share of arm troubles.

10. Anthony Rendon (Angels, $245MM): Another newer deal resulted in the departure of another former Nats star. Rendon has long been a strong producer, but reached new heights with the bat in his most recent seasons and seems a good bet to keep up the steady output for years to come.

12. Albert Pujols (Angels, $240MM): The Halos hope their latest contract in this realm works out better than the last one. Pujols was already 32 when he went west and — we now know — his best years were behind him. The Halos got a few useful campaigns but it was nothing like the superstar output of yore.

12. Robinson Cano (Mariners, $240MM): Hello Cano came about when the Yankees didn’t pursue their stud second baseman quite as forcefully as many expected and the M’s stepped in with a bold bid. Cano returned 23.3 rWAR in his five seasons in Seattle, which was strong production and enough to allow the team to trade away the back half of the deal even after a PED suspension. We recently explored in a video just how rough that swap was for the Mets; it has worked out even better than hoped for Seattle.

14. Joey Votto (Reds, $225MM): While some would prefer their star first basemen to deliver more dingers, Votto has been an enormously productive hitter for quite some time. He’s coming off of a tepid 2018 (by his standards) and decidedly average 2019 showing, so there’s some reason to worry whether Votto is beginning to fade. But the game’s ultimate professional hitter has largely lived up to expectations and could yet add more value over the final years of his deal.

15. David Price (Red Sox, $217MM): The biggest pitching contract in history when signed, the Price deal hasn’t really paid out as hoped but also wasn’t a total train wreck. The southpaw has been a quality performer — but not the ace he once was — and the Sox won a title. It cost Boston half of the remainder of the deal to offload Price on the Dodgers as part of a bigger swap this past offseason.

16. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers, $215MM): This was a slam dunk of a deal to sign. Kershaw was the game’s preeminent hurler entering his walk year in 2014. He ended up winning the MVP award in the season before the deal formally kicked in, so there’s little doubt the star southpaw would’ve cost bundles more in free agency. While back issues have reduced his dominance, Kershaw remains an excellent starter. When his opt-out decision was pending in the fall of 2018, he and the club agreed to an extension that expanded the original deal.

16. Christian Yelich (Brewers, $215MM): The most recent two-hundred-million-dollar man has emerged as one of the game’s best players since the Brewers acquired him and his team-friendly early-career extension from the Marlins. He agreed to his new contract just before Spring Training was halted — less than two months ago, if you can believe it — thus adding seven seasons and $188.5MM on top of the final two years he was already promised. If Yelich can maintain anything like the trajectory he has established over the past two seasons, this new contract will be a bargain.

18. Prince Fielder (Tigers, $214MM): Fielder had a monster debut season in Detroit, but this ultimately turned into another classic slugger contract that didn’t really pan out. He had one more good campaign left in him after a swap to the Rangers, but Fielder was ultimately forced into early retirement owing to neck surgery. The Texas organization was able to sort out a settlement with its insurer.

19. Max Scherzer (Nationals, $210MM): Wonder why teams sign these deals when so many seem to run into trouble? This is Exhibit A. Scherzer has just plain dealt in D.C., winning two Cy Young awards and placing in the top five of the voting in each of his five seasons with the Nats. We just examined whether an extension of the arrangement might be worth pursuing.

20. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks, $206.5MM): And that brings us to … probably the biggest stunner on this list. Nobody saw Greinke going to Arizona, least of all for a deal with this much money in a six-season span. Good as he was in his platform season, and for years before that, Greinke managed to set an AAV record entering his age-32 season. He got off to a rough start with the Snakes, but ended up delivering strong results — so much so that the Arizona organization was able to recoup significant young talent (while also holding onto a big portion of the remaining salary) in a 2019 trade deadline blockbuster.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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It was a pretty quiet offseason in Kansas City, though the Royals brought two franchise icons back into the fold and took a flier on a potential post-hype breakout candidate for third base.

Major League Signings

  • Alex Gordon, OF: One year, $4MM
  • Maikel Franco, 3B: One year, $2.95MM
  • Jesse Hahn, RHP: One year, $600K (Hahn was re-signed after originally being non-tendered)
  • Total spend: $7.55MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Royals began their offseason by making the expected hire of Mike Matheny as the team’s new manager.  It was widely assumed that Matheny (brought into the organization the previous winter as a special advisor) would succeed Ned Yost in the dugout, and the former Cardinals skipper will now take over Missouri’s other MLB club after a somewhat turbulent ending to his tenure in St. Louis.

Whit Merrifield drew trade interest from the Padres and Cubs over the course of the winter, and it’s safe to assume that the Royals fielded calls from at least a few other teams given Merrifield’s overall value.  The 31-year-old is one of the better all-around veteran assets in the game, considering his ability to play multiple positions, his inexpensive contract that could extend through the 2023 season, and his three consecutive seasons of strong production.

And yet, Merrifield is still wearing the K.C. blue heading into whatever becomes of the 2020 season.  The same is true of left-hander Tim Hill, who drew interest from the Athletics, Yankees, and other clubs in the wake of two impressive years of work in the Royals’ bullpen.  There wasn’t as much buzz about Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy (set to be the club’s highest-paid players in 2020), yet the two hurlers are also still in the fold, as the Royals didn’t pursue any salary-dump types of moves.

In short, it was a pretty stand-pat type of offseason for GM Dayton Moore, as the Royals didn’t make any truly significant steps towards either trying to build a contender or in further rebuilding.  Despite losing 207 games over the 2018-19 seasons, Kansas City has resisted undergoing a full overhaul, and upper management seems to believe that the Royals’ core group of talent isn’t too far away from bringing the club back into the postseason hunt.

Speaking of upper management, the winter saw a change at the very top of the organization, as the franchise was sold to Kansas City businessman John Sherman.  Formerly a minority owner of the Indians since 2016, Sherman’s direction for the Royals has yet to be determined, though much of the fanbase naturally hopes that Sherman will be more willing to spend on payroll.  Unfortunately, it may yet be months or even years before we get an answer to that question, given how the COVID-19 shutdown and the threat of a canceled 2020 season equals a massive revenue loss for every MLB team.

Even before the league hit the pause button, there wasn’t much in the way of splashy roster moves, as Moore pursued low-cost upgrades.  The most notable new face in the mix is Maikel Franco, the former top Phillies prospect who was non-tendered in December (Philadelphia decided against paying Franco a projected $6.7MM arbitration salary).  The Royals ended up signing Franco for a one-year, $2.95MM deal, choosing Franco over another infield option in former Brewer Travis Shaw.

Franco has shown only flashes of potential at the Major League level, hitting .249/.302/.431 with 102 home runs over 2539 career plate appearances with the Phillies.  The Royals already believe they have found some correctable flaws in Franco’s swing, however, making him an intriguing low-risk option for Kansas City at that price tag.  Franco is also just 27 years old and controllable through 2021 via arbitration.

In an absolute best-case scenario, K.C. hopes Franco can deliver anything close to the big breakout Jorge Soler just enjoyed in his own age-27 season, as Soler led the American League with 48 homers in 2019.  That performance instantly turned Soler into a potential franchise cornerstone, putting him along with Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Hunter Dozier as what the Royals hope will be the building blocks of their next winning team. Soler is a free agent after 2021. A long-term deal seems a possibility, though the sides didn’t tie one up before the season was paused.

Franco’s installation at third base set off a chain reaction within the Royals’ everyday lineup.  Dozier saw the majority of action at the hot corner last season, though he will now be penciled in as the regular right fielder, with Merrifield moving to center.  First base will be manned by the “soft platoon” of Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan McBroom, while Nicky Lopez will take over the starting second base job now that Merrifield is slated for outfield duty.

The Royals also have in-game flexibility thanks to Merrifield and Dozier’s positional versatility, and the open question about who would serve the utility infield role may not be as pressing as it was early in Spring Training since expanded rosters will almost surely be part of any 2020 season.  Humberto Arteaga, Kelvin Gutierrez, Erick Mejia, and new signing Matt Reynolds could all see some bench time as part of a larger roster.  Likewise, the decision of which of Bubba Starling or Brett Phillips would win the backup outfield job is now probably a moot point, since the Royals will have roster space for both out-of-options players.

Speaking of the K.C. outfield, longtime Royals fixture Alex Gordon decided to return for a 14th Major League season, signing a one-year, $4MM pact.  Gordon had a bit of a resurgence at the plate in 2019 — his 96 OPS+ and wRC+ were his highest since 2015 — and he still offers a very solid left field glove and a highly-respected veteran voice in the clubhouse.  After flirting with retirement, it isn’t yet known if Gordon intends 2020 to be his last season, which creates the unfortunate possibility that we may have already seen his last game if the 2020 season never gets underway.  (Or, if all of MLB’s games this season are played in Arizona and/or Florida, Gordon might not get another chance to play in front of the Kansas City fans.)

Gordon, Duffy, and Salvador Perez (who’s returning from Tommy John surgery) are the only remaining members of the Royals’ 2015 World Series-winning team, though there seems to be a chance Greg Holland could rejoin them.  Holland signed a minors contract with the Royals, and the league shutdown and subsequent transactions freeze has left the right-hander in something of a limbo state.  Kansas City did select the contract of another minor league bullpen signing in Trevor Rosenthal prior to the freeze, which could hint that the Royals have already made their choice between the two veteran relievers.

Looking to rebound after a pair of rough seasons, Holland hasn’t been a truly dominant relief arm since prior to his 2015 Tommy John surgery, when he was the closer of Kansas City’s old “Law Firm” bullpen trio that also consisted of Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis.  If the Royals decide they better call Holl to the big league roster, it would only add another $1.25MM to the payroll, and Holland has still been able to amass a lot of strikeouts even while struggling to limit walks and home runs.

Holland is hoping to join Rosenthal and Rule 5 pick Stephen Woods Jr. as new faces in the K.C. bullpen, with minors signing Braden Shipley and the re-signed Jesse Hahn also competing for jobs.  Hahn has mostly worked as a starter at the big league level, but his six appearances last season after returning from Tommy John surgery came as a relief pitcher.

Newly-acquired Chance Adams also mostly pitched as a starter during his heyday as a top-100 prospect, though the former Yankee seemingly hit a wall over the last two seasons at both the Triple-A level and in 33 big league innings with New York.  Adams looked good (1.69 ERA, six strikeouts, no walks) over 5 1/3 Spring Training frames, making him a possibility to eventually see work in the Royals’ bullpen, or perhaps even get another look as a starter.

While Duffy, Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, and Mike Montgomery had the first four spots in Kansas City’s rotation spoken for, the fifth starter competition seemed wide open before spring camp ended.  The most interesting candidate was top prospect Brady Singer, even if the odds were on the former 18th overall pick beginning the season in the minors considering Singer has yet to pitch past the Double-A level.  Since there now might not be a minor league season in 2020, however, the Royals could opt to give Singer and several other arms who were on the borderline of winning jobs some playing time on an expanded roster.

2020 Season Outlook

The Royals were hoping to see breakouts or further progress from several players (including Mondesi, Lopez, O’Hearn, McBroom, Franco, and Junis) in order to see where they really stood in the rebuild process, and whether or not the club could start to make a concerted effort to compete as early as 2021.  Even with a new owner, it’s probably unlikely that K.C. would ever become a truly big spender, though a good chunk of money will come off the books once Kennedy’s contract is up after the season.

The specter of a shortened MLB season and potentially an entirely-canceled minor league season will now cost the Royals some crucial development time for their young players, and the transactions freeze may have also erased the possibility of the club working out a contract extension or two prior to Opening Day.  Extension talks could resume once the freeze is lifted, of course, though the nature of such negotiations could be entirely different given the state of a post-shutdown baseball world.

As to what the Royals did accomplish over the winter, it wasn’t a long list of moves by any means, and K.C. is likely to be battling the Tigers for fourth place in the AL Central even in the anything-can-happen realm of an abbreviated season.  A new owner and a new manager are indicative that a new era has indeed begun in Kansas City, even if the club is still figuring out what roster pieces can be carried forward into this next phase.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users)

The Ridiculous Class Of Free Agent Shortstops In 2021-22

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We’ve recently taken a position-by-position run through next winter’s free agent class, highlighting which catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers will be available. All in all, it’s a class with top-heavy class, headlined by Mookie Betts and then dropping off to a series of appealing stars like J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and Marcus Semien. Next year’s group has plenty of intriguing pitchers but no standout aces and, outside of Betts, there’s probably no surefire candidate to score anything greater than a five-year deal on the open market. (Caveat: as has been oft discussed, that’s particularly true of next winter, when it seems safe to expect a more tepid free-agent market as owners look to recoup lost revenues from the 2020 season.)

Mookie-mania will make for a fun headline story in free agency. So will Trevor Bauer’s year-to-year mercenary act, which will begin this coming winter.

But at the risk of looking a little too far down the line, it’s hard not to notice that the 2021-22 crop of free agent shortstops might be the single best collection of players we’ve ever seen at one position in one free-agent class. Extensions, injuries and downturns could thin out this group — but unexpected one-year deals this winter (could Semien or Didi Gregorius accept a qualifying offer?) could also theoretically deepen it. As things stand, here’s an early look at a legitimately jaw-dropping crop of shortstop talent that will hit the market upon conclusion of the 2021 season (age for the 2022 season included in parentheses)…

Top of the Class

  • Francisco Lindor (28): Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be worth more than $100MM a few years ago, and the move looks wise. He’s already topped $28MM in arbitration salaries and could plausibly command $300MM+ on a free-agent deal.
  • Javier Baez (29): Baez has been in extension talks with the Cubs, but their ownership has been reluctant to spend money in recent winters. Baez was an All-Star in 2018-19, finished second in ’18 MVP voting and is one of MLB’s most well-rounded infielders.
  • Carlos Correa (27): Correa hasn’t topped 110 games since 2016, but the former AL Rookie of the Year has been 29 percent better than the league-average hitter in his career, per wRC+. The average shortstop hasn’t topped 100 during his time in the Majors.
  • Trevor Story (29): No shortstop has more than Story’s 123 home runs since the time of his MLB debut in 2016 (despite missing about two months of that season due to injury). He’ll have to overcome the standard Coors Field stigma, but he’s hit for power on the road as well and grades out very well at shortstop (career +40 DRS).
  • Corey Seager (28): The 2016 NL Rookie of the Year returned from 2018 Tommy John surgery to swat 19 homers and an NL-leading 44 doubles in just 139 games in 2019. With so much star power around him in L.A., Seager has in some ways become underrated.

Established Veterans/Potential Regulars

  • Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has been outstanding since the Dodgers acquired him in a low-profile deal that wound up looking like a heist. He’s hit .268/.340/.468 in three seasons while playing all over the outfield and everywhere but first base on the infield.
  • Brandon Crawford (35): Long one of the game’s best defensive players, Crawford’s all-around game has taken a dip in recent years. There’s still time for the lifelong Giant to turn things around, though, and he should be provided ample opportunity to do so given his status as a leader in San Francisco.
  • Miguel Rojas (33): The Marlins hold a $5.5MM option over Rojas that’ll vest if he reaches 500 plate appearances in 2021. Rojas plays quality defense and is extremely difficult to strike out. But if he reaches the open market after 2021, it’ll be because Miami deemed him expendable despite that affordable rate.

Utility/Bench Options

  • Greg Garcia (32): Garcia has never hit that much, but he’s a useful defender at three infield positions who draws plenty of walks. Some could argue that his walk rate is propped up by hitting ahead of the pitcher, but Garcia has walked at a 13.8 percent clip in 326 PAs hitting leadoff, too.
  • Donovan Solano (34): Solano had barely seen the Majors since 2014 when he came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 in 228 PAs with the Giants last year. There’s a fair bit of smoke and mirror there, evidenced by a .409 BABIP, but that renaissance will still give him some new life in the big leagues.
  • Danny Santana (31): Speaking of unexpected renaissances, Santana brushed away a combined .219/.256/.319 from 2015-18 (732 PAs) to rake at a .283/.324/.534 clip with Texas last year. His strikeout rate soared to nearly 30 percent, though, and while his .353 BABIP wasn’t as high as his .405 mark from his brilliant rookie season in ’14, it still seems ripe for regression.

—

When a 28-year-old Corey Seager is the fourth- or fifth-best option at his position in free agency, we’ve officially reached the twilight zone. All five members in the “top of the class” bucket were first-round or supplemental first-round picks. In fact, all but Story, who “fell” to No. 45 overall, were selected inside the top 20. Correa was the No. 1 overall pick and isn’t even in the conversation for the best name on the list. All five were top 100 prospects. They’ve all made at least one All-Star team, and Correa is the only one of the bunch who hasn’t won a Silver Slugger (thanks largely to the fact that he shares a league with Lindor, who has won four in a row).

While the 2020-21 crop of free agents doesn’t have more than one total free agent who is a lock for a deal of six years or more in length, the 2021-22 class has five shortstops who could push for that length of contract given their track record, upside and in particular, their age. They won’t all get there, but right now we can’t rule any of them out.

Lindor seems like a lock, barring a catastrophic injury. Baez has some plate discipline questions but is an excellent defender and baserunner with plus power. Story’s defense probably doesn’t get enough attention, and he’s certainly not a bad hitter on the road. (There’s also some evidence to suggest that road performance is depressed for Rockies hitters, just as their home performance is bolstered, thanks to altitude issues.) Seager and Correa have been hit hard by injuries and would do well to avoid the IL between now and the conclusion of the 2021 season, but we’re talking about two shortstops on the right side of 30 with career wRC+ marks of 128 and 129, respectively, and 18-plus fWAR apiece through their first four-plus seasons (Seager despite missing nearly all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery).

We’ll need to see just how free agency is hit by a season of diminished revenue in 2020 and what impact the expiring collective bargaining agreement has on open-market pricing. The current CBA expires in December 2021. And even if market circumstances are largely normal, to what extent will the sheer volume of quality shortstops available hurt the top players’ earning power? Right now, Lindor is the cream of the crop, but any of the five will have a bit harder time drumming up a true bidding war thanks to the presence of the others. All that said, the stage is set for some unprecedented fireworks thanks to what could very well be the best collection of shortstops we’ll ever see reach free agency at the same time.

Trey Mancini Discusses Cancer Diagnosis, Outlook

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Trey Mancini has penned a must-read post for The Players’ Tribune in which he discusses his shocking colon cancer diagnosis and ongoing outlook. His uplifting attitude is most welcome in these difficult times.

As baseball tries to get back to the field in 2020, Mancini is sorting out the complicated logistics of treatment in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. He discloses that he has been diagnosed with Stage III cancer, which will require six months of bi-weekly chemotherapy.

As Mancini acknowledges, that timeline makes it rather unlikely he’ll suit up for the Orioles in 2020, if indeed there is a season. As he puts it, “I just want to make sure that I am physically fine before I go out there and start trying to perform again at a major league level.”

It goes without saying that Mancini’s recovery is of primary importance. He says he hopes to remain active, but he’ll first need to beat the disease before he’s able to build back toward professional athletics. Additionally, added care is warranted to ensure that Mancini does not become exposed to COVID-19, as his diagnosis and treatment put him at greater risk of serious complications.

 

It’s hard to see such a vibrant young man dealing with this kind of adversity, but Mancini’s outlook is at once hopeful and inspiring. MLBTR extends its very best wishes to Mancini and his loved ones.

A Max Return On Investment

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Even in April, the first full month of a typical Major League Baseball season, there’s room for high-impact transactions. To name one example, we’re coming up on exactly three years since Dodgers president Andrew Friedman further stacked the perennial NL West champions’ roster. On April 29, 2017, Friedman and the Dodgers announced the signing of infielder Max Muncy to a minor league contract. What looked like a nondescript signing then has turned into yet another of Friedman-led front office’s wise moves in Los Angeles.

Muncy came into the pros as a fifth-round pick of the Athletics in 2012, and he reached the majors three years later. However, from 2015-16, Muncy was anything but a valuable player for Oakland. He took 245 major league trips to the plate during that span and struggled to a .195/.290/.321 line with minus-0.7 fWAR. And Muncy wasn’t a world-beater with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, where he posted an OPS under .800 in parts of two seasons there. The A’s outrighted him in January 2017.

If you were an A’s fan whose team lost Muncy three years ago or a Dodgers loyalist whose club added him, “Who cares?” may have been a justifiable reaction. But nobody knew then that Muncy would soon establish himself as one of the biggest-hitting players in the sport.

Muncy didn’t appear in the majors during his first season with the Dodgers, but he did slash an encouraging .309/.414/.491 across 379 plate appearances with their Triple-A team in Oklahoma City. Muncy has scarcely played in the minors since then because he has simply been too good in the majors to go back.

Muncy took his first at-bat with the Dodgers on April 17, 2018, chipping in a pinch-hit single in an extra-innings victory over the Padres. He has piled up 225 more regular-season hits since then while slashing .256/.381/.545 with 70 home runs in 1,070 trips to the plate. Since Muncy joined the big club, just 14 major league position players have outdone his fWAR total (10.0), while only seven have bettered him in wRC+ (146). He’s right there with Nelson Cruz, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto and teammate Cody Bellinger in the latter category. Hard to believe when you consider where he was a few years back. But it’s not just about the regular season for the Dodgers. They’re a playoff team every year, and Muncy hasn’t wilted on that stage. Remember this homer?

Adding to the 29-year-old Muncy’s value, he’s no slouch in the field. He accounted for a positive Defensive Runs Saved figure last year at three different positions – first, second and third. He’s one of seemingly countless Swiss Army knife-type players on the Dodgers’ roster, and among the key contributors to a team that has stayed dominant of late and should again vie for a championship whenever baseball resumes. The Dodgers are believers, having given Muncy a three-year, $26MM extension in February. Not a bad outcome for someone who first joined the organization on a non-guaranteed deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Puig, Giants, Daniels, Starling

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Let’s check in on three of the majors’ franchises…

  • A report over the weekend all but placed free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig in a Giants uniform. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco doesn’t seem nearly as confident a deal will come together, though, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic via text, “We are not having any conversations (internal or external) about player transactions at this point.” However, as Baggarly notes, that doesn’t mean a Puig signing isn’t under consideration. There’s a freeze on transactions because of the coronavirus, so even if the Giants do intend to pick up Puig, they’ll have to continue to wait to make the move. For what it’s worth, it wasn’t long ago that the Giants reportedly showed interest in Puig, who has a couple important connections in San Francisco. Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were both members of the Dodgers organization during at least part of Puig’s run with the Giants’ archrivals from 2013-18.
  • Optimism about a 2020 season getting underway seems to be growing. One idea that came to the forefront last week includes a three-state plan in which Arizona, Florida and Texas would divvy up the games. Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels spoke about that with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, saying: “For a variety of factors, it makes a lot of sense. We’ve had some involvement from a due diligence standpoint, but I would not want to overstate that piece of it. I think [Dodgers president] Stan Kasten said about one percent of all ideas have become public; there have been a lot of ideas. That’s just one.” If a season does occur, the Rangers – after a fairly aggressive winter – will look to bounce back from three straight sub-.500 campaigns. Their roster doesn’t seem likely to undergo any more significant changes before a potential season happens. Asked how much time the Rangers have recently spent talking to other teams about upgrading their club, Daniels told Grant, “Very little; close to none.”
  • Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star details how Royals outfielder Bubba Starling is dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. As you’d expect, Starling is hoping to return to the field as soon as possible. The out-of-options 27-year-old had been competing to earn a roster spot before spring training shut down. Starling’s a former No. 5 overall draft pick in 2011 who had a run as an outstanding MLB prospect, but his career hasn’t gone according to plan thus far. He debuted in the majors last year and batted just .215/.255/.317 over 197 plate appearances. Starling also hasn’t been very productive in Triple-A ball, where he has hit .255/.305/.376 in 805 attempts, but he could still make a rebuilding KC team that’s in position to give chances to unproven players.

The Yankees’ Rotation Is Facing Big Changes

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The Yankees made the biggest splash of the free-agent market this past winter when they signed right-handed ace Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324MM contract. Under normal circumstances, Cole would have already picked up a few starts as a Yankee, but he may not pitch at all in 2020 as we navigate through a coronavirus-caused hellscape. No matter what, he’ll be a Yankee for a long time, but their rotation will nonetheless face a significant amount of uncertainty heading into the next free-agent period.

If a season does take place this year, the Yankees plan to have Cole fronting a starting staff also made up of righty Masahiro Tanaka and a trio of lefties consisting of James Paxton, J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. Except Cole and Montgomery, everybody there could hit the open market during the upcoming winter.

As of now, would the Yankees want to keep Paxton, Tanaka or Happ going forward? At least in the first two cases, it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t show at least some interest. The club sent a noteworthy package to Seattle in November 2018 to acquire the hard-throwing Paxton, who put up appealing results during his New York debut last year. Problem is that a lack of durability has been an all-too-common problem for Paxton, who has only maxed out at 160 1/3 innings in a single season so far (he underwent back surgery in February). His age (32 in November 2020) could also be cause for wariness.

Tanaka, also 32 in November, has generally delivered since the Yankees signed him out of Japan to a seven-year, $155MM guarantee in 2014. With that said, Tanaka’s regular-season ERA has been closer to 5.00 than 3.00 twice in the past three seasons. You also have to wonder about his health, as Tanaka has been pitching with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow for the majority of his career. So, is that someone the Yankees want to gamble on for a second contract – one that’s sure to be fairly lucrative?

Unlike Paxton and Tanaka, Happ’s not in position to stick around for the long haul. He’ll be in his age-38 season come 2021 and was a disappointment last season, the first of a two-year, $34MM deal with the Yankees. However, it’s worth noting that the Yankees threw a $17MM vesting option for 2021 into that agreement. The original stipulation was that Happ would have to toss 165 innings or pile up at least 27 starts this year for that salary to become guaranteed, though it’s unclear how that situation will pan out during a truncated or canceled season.

Fortunately for the Yankees, one of their most pitchers should be back from injury sometime in 2021. Righty Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery in February, though if his all goes well, he ought to be on track to return by either spring or early summer next year. You can pencil him in for some innings after Cole, then. Montgomery, assuming he returns to his previously solid form after the TJS he had in June 2018, could also occupy a spot in a group devoid of Tanaka, Paxton and Happ. Moreover, the Yankees have a few other interesting in-house options who are either in the majors or close to it in Jonathan Loaisiga, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Mike King and Albert Abreu. Loaisiga’s the lone hurler there with real MLB experience, though; plus, it’s fair to question if the Yankees would be willing to count on anyone else there from the outset of 2021 because their development would be stunted to some degree by a shortened or canceled minor league campaign.

Of course, as they’re wont to do, the Yankees could try to spend their way out of this predicament next offseason. That said, there aren’t any surefire aces on a collision course with free agency. No Coles, no Strasburgs. That’s not to say the next market will be empty of helpful hurlers, however.

Along with Paxton and Tanaka, you’re looking at the likes of Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, Marcus Stroman and Jose Quintana at or near the top of the list. Bauer seems to have the highest upside, evidenced by the otherworldly numbers he logged as recently as 2018, but his production fell last season and there’s some serious tension between him and Cole dating from their days as teammates at UCLA. Meanwhile, if you go back in the MLBTR archives, you’ll see that the Yankees have shown past interest in Ray and Minor. Stroman has apparently not impressed the team that much, though, as general manager Brian Cashman suggested in September. But there’s at least some familiarity with Quintana, once a Yankees farmhand whom they let go after 2011.

In addition to monitoring free agency, New York’s likely to give the trade market a look. It’s harder to predict who could end up available via that route, but Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Matthew Boyd (Tigers), Danny Duffy (Royals), Jon Gray (Rockies), and Chris Archer (Pirates) could be among those who catch the Yankees’ attention.

Regardless of how the coming months turn out for the Yankees and the rest of MLB in general, the team will be in for an intriguing winter when it rolls around. The Yankees won’t be making a second straight Cole-type signing in their rotation at that point, but at least one more notable starting addition could be in the cards.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Optimism Building For 2020 MLB Season

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It’s all but a foregone conclusion that fans won’t be in the seats if and when Major League Baseball holds its 2020 Opening Day. But most agree that some baseball — so long as it can be staged safely and responsibly in the midst of a global pandemic — is better than none.

There were several signs of promise today surrounding the outlook for a 2020 campaign of some kind. That’s not to say there’s a clear plan in place. Far from it, in fact. But it seems avenues are opening.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan discussed the situation at length, reporting that “nearly everyone along the decision-making continuum … has grown increasingly optimistic” of staging a season of some kind. That seems like a reasonably important broad-based sentiment, though we’re still quite a few steps away from hope converting into real, live ballgames.

Passan covers a lot of subjects in the piece, which is well worth a read. Just don’t expect any new direction in terms of how it’s all supposed to come together. That hasn’t been narrowed down in the least.

To some extent, the increased options that justify the optimism also make it hard to know what the 2020 season will look like. State and local officials will ultimately have final word on just what is possible. There’s some good news on that front also.

New York governor Andrew Cuomo indicated today that he sees a path to baseball being played in New York City this summer, as the Associated Press reports (via WTOP News). Of course, at the moment there’s no expectation that spectators would be on hand, but seeing games in Queens and the Bronx would nevertheless be an inspiring sight given the brutal toll of the coronavirus in the country’s biggest city.

It’s much the same situation in Chicago, home of another pair of MLB franchises, as Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago writes. Mayor Lori Lightfoot says that the city has contemplated the return of professional sports. While it’s nowhere near happening, she sounded a generally hopeful tone: “But can I envision a world where baseball might return to Chicago this summer? Yes. Is it likely to be without fans? Probably.”

Even if the logistics are lined up, there’s still the matter of getting the league and players on the same page. The sides drew up and signed a formal agreement, but immediately came to disagree on what it means for player salaries if games are staged without fans. The union says the late-March agreement establishes that players must be paid on a full pro rata basis for any games, regardless whether anybody paid to sit in the stands.

Passan provides some specific language that bears upon the assessment of that subject. Unfortunately, the clauses cited seemingly confirm that there’s some ambiguity in the contract on this point. As we explored recently, it’s bizarre to see a new and unnecessary layer of complication added through this oddly framed document, the interpretation of which could now become a major issue bearing upon the ability to resume play and labor relations more generally.

Posey & Perez(es) Lead 2021-22 Free Agent Catching Market

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It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class. The backstops don’t feature that kind of unbounded earning power. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many catchers set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 catching market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

  • Salvador Perez (32): One of the game’s true workhorses behind the dish, Perez missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. But the respite could conceivably enhance his long-term outlook after averaging 138 games annually over the prior six seasons. Perez’s value is a matter of quite some disagreement. Baseball Prospectus catching grades don’t love his work behind the dish and he’s a roughly average hitter whose best attribute (power) may lead some to overrate his abilities on offense. Fangraphs values his total career contribution at an underwhelming 10 WAR. Per Baseball-Reference’s measures, which give far more credence to Perez’s efforts with the glove, it’s a far more robust 22.1 WAR.
  • Buster Posey (35): It’s tough to imagine the Giants will end up exercising a $22MM club option rather than allowing Posey to test the open market with a $3MM buyout on his way out. Posey is a historically important member of the San Francisco organization, but there’s hope his eventual replacement (Joey Bart) is already nearing the majors. More importantly, the decline has been precipitous for the once-great Posey. Long a well-above-average hitter, he drooped in 2018 and fell off a cliff last year, when he posted a .257/.320/.368 slash line. The good news here is that Posey remains a high-quality performer behind the dish. And he may have been unlucky at the plate; Statcast credits him with a .315 xwOBA but he managed only a .298 wOBA. Given the talent level, it’s too soon to rule out a late-career surge.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Roberto Perez (33): If the Indians end up picking up their cheap option over Perez for 2021, he’d be on track to hit free agency in the ensuing winter. If he can keep up last year’s league-average offensive output, the defensive standout might have a run of success as a near-everyday option.
  • Wilson Ramos (34): Another player covered by a club option in 2021, Ramos is a bat-first backstop who seems destined for an eventual return to the American League for the later stage of his career. He graded poorly in the field in 2019, when he carried a big workload for the Mets, but he has historically fared rather well with the glove. Durability remains an ongoing issue as well.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Tucker Barnhart (31): The Reds will have to decide between a $7.5MM club option and $500K buyout. Barnhart is a solid performer behind the plate and could function well as a half-time player for some time to come. The switch-hitter has a palatable 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
  • Travis d’Arnaud (33): A strong bounceback 2019 season earned d’Arnaud a two-year deal with the Braves. He isn’t likely to turn into a full everyday receiver, having only once topped four hundred plate appearances in a season.
  • Yan Gomes (34): While he’s a steady hand in the field, Gomes wasn’t able to match his solid 2018 offensive work in the 2019 season. The Nats still liked him well enough as a timeshare guy to offer a two-year pact.
  • Martin Maldonado (35): The bat is never going to be a strength, but Maldonado is a trusted hand. He keeps finding himself in demand at the trade deadline.
  • Manny Pina (34): Pina is a somewhat underappreciated contributor. He performs well with the mask on and doesn’t hurt too much on offense, where he’s a career 90 wRC+ performer.

Three Years Ago, The Padres Got An Elite Reliever For Nothing

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We just passed the three-year anniversary of a transaction that looked inconsequential at the time but has since turned into one of the finest moves of Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s career.

On April 26, 2017, the Padres took a low-risk flier on reliever Kirby Yates via waivers. Yates had been with the Angels, but they and GM Billy Eppler designated him for assignment just a few days earlier. It was actually the second time that month that the Angels designated Yates, though no one took the bait the first time. That was understandable considering he never did much to stand out in the majors to that point, so you can’t really fault the Angels for cutting ties with him in light of that fact

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the Padres claimed the right-hander: “Yates, 30, only made it into one contest for the Halos this year. Over his 98 2/3 total MLB frames since the start of the 2014 season, he owns only a 5.38 ERA.” However, Jeff went on to add, “[Yates] has also generated 10.4 K/9 to go with 3.7 BB/9 in that span and showed career-best fastball velocity (94 mph) in his sole MLB appearance this year.”

And Yates, a 26th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2005, did put up excellent production at the minors’ highest level. Also a former member of the Yankees and Rays in MLB, he caught on with the Padres as the owner of a 2.26 ERA with 12.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 135 2/3 innings in Triple-A. Little did the Padres or anyone else know Yates would soon go on to post even better numbers in San Diego.

While Yates did not manage dominant run prevention figures during his first year as a Padre, he was quite serviceable, giving them 55 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA/3.50 FIP pitching and fanning a jaw-dropping 14.07 batters per nine (compared to 3.07 BB/9). San Diego clearly had a useful hurler on its hands, and he took it up several notches from there.

Last year was especially incredible for Yates, who fired 60 2/3 innings of 1.19 ERA ball en route to his first All-Star nod and totaled 41 saves in 44 attempts. Yates did not win NL Reliever of the Year honors (that award went to the Brewers’ Josh Hader), but maybe he should have. After all, along with amassing the most saves in the game, he paced all relievers in ERA and FIP, and finished second in fWAR (3.4; only Athletics steal Liam Hendriks was better), third in K/BB ratio (7.77), and fifth in strikeouts per nine (14.98).

So how did Yates, now 33, become such a force? As he explained to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com in 2018, the introduction of a splitter to his repertoire was the turning point.

“The Angels didn’t want me to get away from the slider,” Yates told Cassavell. “I wasn’t necessarily going to get away from the slider, but I was trying to add a third pitch. When I got here, it was, ’We like your split, we want you to throw it more.'”

Yates leaned on the pitch better than 36 percent of the time in ’18 and upward of 41 percent last year. Hitters could only muster a pitiful .182 weighted on-base average/.203 expected wOBA against it in 2019, per Statcast. According to FanGraphs, it has been the most effective pitch of its kind among all relievers since Yates began throwing it. It goes to show that any player, even a scrapheap pickup in his early 30s, might just be one adjustment from stardom.

For Preller, Yates was his second relief addition via waivers to evolve into an all-world bullpen piece. One April earlier, he grabbed Brad Hand from the Marlins (more on that here), and the Padres sold high on him when they sent him to the Indians in 2018. Perhaps Yates will meet a similar fate, or maybe he has already thrown his last pitch as a Padre. He’s scheduled to become a free agent next winter, though the two sides have discussed an extension. No matter where Yates pitches going forward, there’s no doubt he has provided worlds of value to the Padres and put himself in line to cash in on a multiyear contract. Who could have expected that to happen when they scooped him up three years ago?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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