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Major Remaining Contender Roster Needs At The Trade Deadline

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We explained recently that this year’s run-up to the trade deadline has been among the quietest in recent memory. We have seen several swaps since, but the most significant players to change hands — Trevor Bauer (Reds) and Marcus Stroman (Mets) — didn’t even land with prime contenders. With the deadline just hours away, numerous clubs in obvious position to strike for the postseason still have unmet needs.

[RELATED: Top 75 Trade Candidates At The Deadline]

Here are a few of the possible target areas for the game’s contenders. Not all will be fulfilled, while other creative swaps will be struck. But these are the general areas that stand out:

Clear Contenders

  • Astros: rotation upgrade; bullpen upgrade/left-handed depth; catching upgrade
  • Athletics: rotation upgrade; bullpen depth; second base upgrade
  • Braves: rotation upgrade; bullpen upgrade; corner outfielder
  • Brewers: rotation upgrade/depth; first base upgrade; shortstop upgrade
  • Cardinals: rotation upgrade/depth; bullpen upgrade/depth; center field upgrade
  • Cubs: lineup upgrade (outfield/second base); left-handed reliever
  • Dodgers: bullpen upgrade
  • Indians: rotation depth; second base upgrade
  • Nationals: multiple bullpen upgrades/depth; rotation depth
  • Phillies: rotation upgrade; third base and/or outfield upgrade; bullpen upgrade/depth
  • Rays: rotation and/or bullpen upgrade; right-handed DH/corner OF bat
  • Red Sox: bullpen upgrade/depth
  • Twins: rotation and/or bullpen upgrade
  • Yankees: rotation upgrade; bullpen upgrade; first base insurance?

Uncertain Contenders

  • Angels: rotation upgrade/depth
  • Diamondbacks: rotation upgrade/depth
  • Giants: second base upgrade; outfield upgrade
  • Mets: bullpen depth; shortstop/center field upgrade
  • Reds: bullpen upgrade; second base upgrade

Top 75 Trade Candidates At The Deadline

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This is the final update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here and find the second list here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Without further ado:

1. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (LR: 3): There’s a report saying the Mets might try to extend him, but … when are those talks going to take place? Wheeler bounced back from an injury scare with a sturdy outing in which he had all his velocity. He’s a potential impact rental piece. It’s time to move him.

2-4. Nicholas Castellanos (Tigers), Corey Dickerson (Pirates) & Yasiel Puig (Reds), OF (LR: 6, 20, NR): The corner outfield market has crystallized quite a bit in recent weeks. Each of these players is earning a fairly steep salary but has also been quite productive of late. If you need to add some thump to your outfield mix, these are your top rental options.

5-7. Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Mike Minor (Rangers) & Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks), SP (LR: 30, 31, 32): These are the likeliest remaining non-rental starters to be moved this summer. Reports have wavered on all three in the run-up to to the deadline; perhaps their teams have as well. These are talented and productive starters with appealing contract situations, playing for teams that can still entertain hopes of 2020 contention. Better bring a good offer.

8-10. Shane Greene (Tigers), Edwin Diaz (Mets) & Felipe Vazquez (Pirates), RP (LR: 8, NR, NR): Greene isn’t in the same tier from a talent standpoint, but he’s also quite a bit more likely than the other two hurlers to be dealt. It makes sense for the Detroit organization to cash him in at a high point, especially since his arb salary will go through the roof next year. Diaz and Vazquez possess the type of talent that moves the needle even for contending teams that seemingly have everything on their rosters. Given their contract situations, they won’t be moved lightly, but it’s possible to imagine blockbusters in both cases.

11. Tanner Roark, SP, Reds (LR: NR): He’s not an exciting pitcher, but he’s as good or better than other sturdy, inning-filling types that have been moved in recent weeks. High odds of a deal unless the Reds shrug and decide to let it ride.

12-13. Matthew Boyd (Tigers) & Caleb Smith (Marlins), SP (LR: 9, 59): These hurlers come with more and cheaper control than the group listed above. They’ve both shown eye-opening improvements this year, but don’t have lengthy track records of MLB success.

14-15. Mychal Givens (Orioles), Raisel Iglesias (Reds), RP (LR: 17, NR): Gone are the days when big save tallies and/or low ERAs drive the deadline. Both of these pitchers have obvious talent and have shown it for lengthy stretches. Contenders have no doubt taken a close look in a bid to understand just why it is the results haven’t been there in 2019. The O’s have every reason to jump on a deal if they can get some appealing young talent. The Reds are reportedly willing to listen on Iglesias, which hasn’t always really been the case.

16-18. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants; Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays (LR: 13, 14, 15): Welcome to the 2019 corner infield rental market.

19-25. Craig Stammen (Padres), Daniel Hudson (Blue Jays), Greg Holland (Diamondbacks), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), Chris Martin (Rangers), David Hernandez & Jared Hughes (Reds), RP (LR: 41, 44, 42, NR, NR, NR, NR): And here we have the slate of pure rental relief arms. Hernandez is perhaps the most fascinating of the bunch, with excellent K/BB numbers but a brutal 6.92 ERA and recent IL stint.

26. Alex Colome, RP, White Sox (LR: 45): We just aren’t very high on Colome as a trade chip. The late-inning experience is great, as is the 2.27 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. But Colome’s ho-hum peripherals are cause for quite a lot of skepticism and Statcast batted-ball measurements paint him as a massive regression candidate (.223 wOBA vs. .324 xwOBA). With a hefty salary — $7.325MM this year and a save-induced arb raise next year — it just doesn’t seem that Colome is going to command significant offers.

27. Ken Giles (RP), Blue Jays (LR: 4): This is a disappointing situation for the Jays, who were all lined up to cash in on Giles after his exceptional showing throughout the first half of the season. Unfortunately, he’s now dealing with worrying elbow inflammation. Even if he ultimately comes through just fine, there’s sufficient uncertainty to make a deal much less likely than it had seemed. If they can’t secure a big return, the Jays will probably hold onto Giles in hopes that he’ll bounce back in the second half and turn into a winter trade piece (or remain the team’s closer for 2020).

28. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: 12): There’s still no path to the Bronx, so it’s likely Frazier ends up on the move. Odds are he’ll go in a deal that brings back a pitcher, but beyond that it’s anyone’s guess on a landing spot.

29. Mike Leake, SP, Mariners (LR: 16): The veteran hurler is sporting a fine 2.59 ERA through 24 1/3 innings this month, making him a nice back-of-the-rotation target. We know the M’s are willing to deal and hold onto salary as necessary to facilitate a move. Leake would rank higher but for the fact that his no-trade rights (along with indications he won’t hesitate to use them) create a complication.

30. Roenis Elias, RP, Mariners (LR: 18): Despite a few stumbles, Elias has mostly delivered solid work in a surprising turn as the Seattle closer.

31. Jarrod Dyson, OF, Diamondbacks (LR: 37): The speedy lefty is a classic deadline rental piece. He’d make sense as a bench outfielder for a number of contenders.

32-33. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) & Trevor Bauer (Indians), SP (LR: 32, 34): There are still scenarios where these two excellent hurlers could be moved, but we haven’t heard a significant volume of rumors indicating there’s a major run-up to a deal. Greinke’s limited no-trade rights are a significant factor, while the contending Cleveland organization obviously has ample cause to keep Bauer unless very particular goals are met in a trade.

34-37. Joe Jimenez (Tigers), Joe Biagini (Blue Jays), Jose Leclerc (Rangers) & Amir Garrett (Reds), RP (LR: 58, NR, NR, NR): This is a grouping of controllable relievers with interesting arms, even if the results haven’t always been there. All have been mentioned at some point in the rumor mill, but it’ll take a compelling offer to force their respective teams’ hands.

38. Hunter Pence, OF, Rangers (LR: NR): The surprise All-Star would fill a niche as a right-handed bat and major clubhouse presence for a contender.

39-40. Hunter Renfroe & Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres (LR: 21, 22): It remains difficult to ascertain the intentions of the San Diego organization, but it seems they’re continuing to explore deals involving these controllable corner outfielders. Both have displayed huge power and middling on-base numbers this year.

41-42. Kole Calhoun (Angels) & David Peralta (Diamondbacks), OF (LR: 28, 29): As was the case when we last checked in, these two players remain plausible but hardly certain trade candidates. Teams looking for quality corner outfield bats may be willing to take on the salary and give up some prospect value if they see one of these veteran left-handed-hitters as the best roster fit.

43. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (LR: 19): Perhaps we’re discounting the possibility of a trade too much here, but there just hasn’t been any particularly compelling chatter about the outstanding San Diego closer. As just suggested above, there are still quite a few fascinating possibilities for the Friars. Anything involving Yates would make for banner news on a thus-far-moribund trade market.

44. Andrew Chafin, RP, Diamondbacks (LR: NR): While he’s carrying a 4.21 ERA in 36 1/3 innings, that’s not of much concern. More importantly, Chafin is sitting at 11.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 on the year and has been tough on lefty hitters (.231/.294/.333). With one more season of control remaining, the Snakes have some value here.

45. Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies (LR: NR): Murphy is heating up at the plate at the right time if the Colorado club wishes to clear some salary. The Rox have underperformed expectations and seem in position to sell. Trouble is, the organization has little in the way of obvious trade chips unless it puts core pieces up for sale or eats a ton of money on bad contracts.

46. Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (LR: NR): It seemed that some momentum was building towards a deal, but an elbow injury has reduced the likelihood.

47. Alex Wood, SP, Reds (LR: NR): While he’s only one start into his tenure in Cincinnati, that lone showing may have been enough to facilitate a trade. The Reds could hold on and hope for the best, with Wood perhaps even representing a qualifying offer candidate, but they’d have to strongly consider a trade if they can secure decent terms.

48-50. Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals; Starling Marte, OF, Pirates; Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles (LR: 23, NR, 35): We haven’t seen anything close to dedicated trade chatter involving these high-quality players who possess appealing contract situations. But if a surprise position-player blockbuster goes down, these seem the likeliest candidates.

51-52. Jake McGee & Scott Oberg, RP, Rockies (LR: NR): Both of these relievers would have appeal to contenders, but can the Rox afford to part with their best-performing bullpen pieces if they hope to contend next year?

53-55. Freddy Galvis (Blue Jays), Asdrubal Cabrera & Logan Forsythe (Rangers), INF (LR: 26, NR, NR): A recent lower back injury could cause trade talks to hit the skids, but it’s still possible a team will decide that Galvis is the right piece to add. Meanwhile, the Rangers rental veterans are rather obvious bench piece candidates.

56-59. Danny Santana (Rangers), Tim Beckham (Mariners), Jonathan Villar & Hanser Alberto (Orioles), INF (LR: NR, 55, 56): If you’d rather chase a bit of upside and gain control with your reserve infield addition, these players are worth considering.

60. Adam Jones, OF, Diamondbacks (LR: NR): The eminent veteran hasn’t been at his best, but still seems like a nice bench piece for the right team.

61-63. Martin Maldonado (Cubs), Alex Avila (Diamondbacks) & Chris Iannetta (Rockies), C (LR: 38, 40, NR): Maldonado was dealt since our last ranking, but rumor is he could be moved again.

64. Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals (LR: 49): There hasn’t been much chatter on the veteran, but he remains a candidate to step into a contending bullpen if the Royals are willing to hang onto a big chunk of the remaining salary. There’s some indication they’d rather not.

65-66. Wilson Ramos, C & Justin Wilson, RP, Mets (LR: 53-54): We haven’t seen much indication that either of these veterans will be moved, but both are plausible chips if the Mets decide to try to shave some 2020 payroll obligations.

67. Lance Lynn, SP, Rangers (LR: NR): There’s no indication that Lynn is a major target, but … why not? True, he’s controllable for two more seasons, while Minor only has one remaining. But some contenders may well see Lynn as the better pitcher and be willing to offer more to get him. The Rangers can’t rule anything out.

68-71. Madison Bumgarner (SP) & Will Smith, Sam Dyson & Tony Watson (RP), Giants (LR: 1, 2, 7, 10): We’re generally presuming that the Giants won’t bow out of a Wild Card race that they have now joined. Still, they’ll need to explore the possibilities regarding these short-term assets.

72. Drew Pomeranz, SP/RP, Giants (LR: NR): This is a more likely Giants’ trade piece, if only because the team could decide to clear a roster spot. Pomeranz would make sense for a club that can imagine him functioning in a LOOGY role while also providing some long-man/rotation depth. 

73. Melky Cabrera, OF/DH, Pirates (LR: NR): The veteran switch-hitter has cooled off but remains a bench-bat candidate.

74. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies (LR: NR): A somewhat surprising name to the market, Blackmon seems an unlikely trade chip. He’s still a very good hitter, but is lagging in other areas. The contract isn’t terrible but doesn’t seem like much of an asset given his age. It’s just difficult to see something coming together, but the potential remains.

75. Jacob deGrom (LR: 60): We can’t quite quit the idea that deGrom could be moved if an exceptional opportunity comes up. It’s highly unlikely, but you can’t completely rule out a blockbuster until the bell has rung and the deadline has passed.

Other Trade Candidates

Angels: Brian Goodwin, Trevor Cahill, Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez, Justin Anderson

Astros: Tony Kemp (DFA limbo)

Blue Jays: Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps, Tim Mayza

Brewers: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas

Cardinals: Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Kolten Wong, Carlos Martinez

Cubs: Ian Happ, Carl Edwards Jr.

Diamondbacks: Wilmer Flores, Zack Godley, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Escobar

Giants: Kevin Pillar, Stephen Vogt, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon, Joe Panik, Trevor Gott

Indians: Brad Hand

Mariners: Dee Gordon, Hunter Strickland, Cory Gearrin, Anthony Bass, Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc

Marlins: Trevor Richards, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen

Mets: Dominic Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, Seth Lugo, Michael Conforto

Nationals: Michael A. Taylor

Orioles: Asher Wojciechowski, Dylan Bundy

Padres: Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin

Phillies: Maikel Franco, Nick Williams

Pirates: Chris Archer, Keone Kela

Rangers: Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo, Jesse Chavez

Rays: Joey Wendle, Mike Brosseau, Ji-Man Choi

Reds: Scooter Gennett, Derek Dietrich, Jose Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen

Rockies: Yonder Alonso, Drew Butera, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw

Royals: Billy Hamilton, Danny Duffy, Lucas Duda (DFA limbo), Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis, Alex Gordon

Tigers: Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham, Jordan Zimmermann, Blaine Hardy, Bobby Wilson (DFA limbo), Buck Farmer

White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann, Aaron Bummer, Jose Abreu

Poll: Grading The Marcus Stroman Trade

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After weeks of trade rumors centering on longtime Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman, the club found a taker for the right-hander Sunday. Toronto sent him to New York, which many anticipated would happen, but not to the NYC-based team anyone was expecting. Instead of shipping Stroman to the World Series-contending Yankees, the Blue Jays dealt him to a Mets team that’s five games under .500 (50-55), six back of wild-card position and will have to jump over five other NL hopefuls down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.

In all likelihood, Stroman won’t be part of a postseason-bound franchise this season. Nevertheless, the Mets decided it was worthwhile to surrender two prospects from an already below-average farm system for Stroman. The Mets gave up Triple-A left-hander Anthony Kay and Single-A righty Simeon Woods Richardson to land Stroman and his remaining year and a half of team control. Now, the Mets could turn around by Wednesday’s trade deadline and make significant subtractions from the rotation Stroman just joined. They did send lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies on Monday, but the Mets have two much bigger fish – righties Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler – who have frequented the rumor mill of late.

There shouldn’t be pressure to move Syndergaard, who’s under control through 2021. However, Syndergaard would surely bring back more in a trade than Stroman, enabling the Mets to somewhat reload their farm after taking more pieces from it Sunday. Likewise, it’s not a must for the Mets to wave goodbye to Wheeler. Although the 29-year-old’s a pending free agent, the Mets could keep him and try to work out an extension – which has at least come up as a possibility. Alternatively, the team could retain Wheeler through the season and issue him a qualifying offer if it’s dissatisfied with the trade offers that come in this week.

For now, the top of the Mets’ 2020 rotation looks like this: Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman. On paper, that would be one of the game’s most formidable trios, but we may never see them in action together.

Unlike the Mets, the Blue Jays aren’t aiming to contend in 2020, which is a major reason why they traded Stroman. Expectations were Stroman would fetch at least one ballyhooed top 100 prospect in a trade, but that didn’t end up happening.

In Kay, the Blue Jays picked up a near-to-the-majors 24-year-old whom Baseball America (subscription required) ranked as the Mets’ fourth-best prospect prior to the trade. The Mets chose Kay 31st overall in the 2016 draft, but he dealt with an elbow injury that year and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. As a result, Kay didn’t pitch competitively for the organization until last year. However, with help from a fastball that can reach 96 mph, Kay has quickly ascended since debuting in 2018. He thrived at the Double-A level to begin this season before earning a promotion to the top of the minors. Kay has struggled in his first action at Triple-A, though, having put up a 6.61 ERA/6.22 FIP with 7.47 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 30.2 percent groundball rate in 31 1/3 innings. He is now the Blue Jays’ fifth-ranked prospect in MLB.com’s estimation, which posits that Kay could find his niche as a “mid-rotation-type starter” in the bigs.

Meanwhile, MLB.com places Woods Richardson seventh among Toronto’s prospects. Just 18, a year removed from going in the second round of the draft, Woods Richardson has logged spectacular strikeout and walk numbers (11.14 K/9, 1.95 BB/9) with a 4.25 ERA/2.56 FIP and a 49.3 percent grounder rate in 20 starts and 78 1/3 innings at the Single-A level this season. He possesses “premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare,” according to BA, which rated him sixth among Mets farmhands.

Although they’re not premier prospects at the moment, there is optimism in regards to Kay and Woods Richardson evolving into long-term major leaguers. The Mets opted for the surer bet in Stroman, however, and are now evidently hoping he’ll help them to a playoff berth in 2020 (if not a miraculous run this season). But it’s up for debate whether New York should have traded for Stroman, especially considering the team may now weaken the rotation it just strengthened by parting with Syndergaard and-or Wheeler.

How do you think the two teams made out in this deal? (Poll links for app users)

Mitch Garver’s Quietly Great Season

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The Twins entered play Friday with the majors’ most home runs, second-best wRC+ and third-most runs, all of which helps explain their 62-40 record and two-game lead in the American League Central. The likes of Nelson Cruz (who swatted three homers Thursday), Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are among Twins position players who get the lion’s share of attention, but there’s a case that a little-known catcher has been their premier offensive contributor on a per-plate appearance basis this season. That backstop didn’t join the Twins as a high draft pick, nor was he an elite prospect coming through their system.

The Twins selected Mitch Garver out of the University of New Mexico in the ninth round of the 2013 draft. At his best, Garver rose to a 17th-place rating in Minnesota’s farm, according to Baseball America, which placed him there after the 2016 season. Back then, BA described Garver as a “steady offensive player” with questionable (albeit improving) defense.

Garver debuted in the majors in 2017, though he only collected 52 plate appearances, before turning into a regular option last year. He was a fine offensive performer then, slashing .268/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 335 trips to the plate, but Garver was simultaneously among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. One year later, though, Garver has quietly evolved into one of the sport’s top all-around catchers.

Sharing time with fellow 2019 standout Jason Castro, the 28-year-old Garver has batted a phenomenal .291/.378/.646 with a prodigious 19 homers in just 217 PA. Among hitters who have amassed 200 or more PA this season, Garver ranks fourth in wRC+ (162). Who’s ahead of him? The MVP-caliber group of Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Meanwhile, Garver has totaled 2.6 fWAR, which ranks fourth at his position behind Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto and Christian Vazquez.

There are ways to somewhat pooh-pooh Garver’s superlative production at the dish. He’s not going to maintain a .354 ISO, for instance, and despite owning one of the majors’ highest fly ball rates (47.8 percent), Garver’s 29.2 percent HR-to-FB rate isn’t going to last. Moreover, Statcast indicates his .422 weighted on-base average is bound to fall. Other than that, however, negatives are few and far between when it comes to Garver’s offensive game.

The righty-swinging Garver has crushed same- and left-handed pitchers alike. His 10.6 percent walk rate is above average, and even though he has been a tremendous power hitter in 2019, Garver hasn’t struck out at an untenable rate. His 24.9 percent strikeout rate is below average, though it’s not awful, and his chase, swing, in-zone contact and swinging-strike percentages are all either a bit better than most players’ or vastly superior. Likewise, Garver’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA are all near the top of the league, per Statcast, which credits him with a .365 xwOBA. Garver’s just below Alex Bregman in that category. Not bad, especially for a catcher. Garver’s excellence has largely stemmed from an ability to pulverize fastballs – FanGraphs ranks him among the game’s most effective hitters versus heaters, while Statcast indicates he has posted a .533 wOBA/.446 xwOBA against them.

Of course, one of the key elements to catching is playing defense, which had been a sore spot for Garver in the past. That hasn’t been the case this year. Not only has Garver thrown out  a solid 6 of 18 would-be base stealers, but he has enjoyed a turnaround in the all-important pitch-framing department. Just 15 catchers have outdone Garver in that regard, says StatCorner.

When it comes to underrated players who have significantly impacted the standings thus far, Garver no doubt ranks near the apex of the league. And with Castro set to hit free agency after the season, perhaps Garver is close to assuming the reins as the Twins’ full-time catcher. With four years left of control remaining after 2019, Garver will have plenty more time to continue putting his name on the map in Minnesota. So far, he’s doing a pretty good job.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Detroit’s Underrated Trade Chip

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Owners of a major league-worst 30-68 record, the Tigers figure to be one of baseball’s most active sellers prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline. Three of their players – starter Matthew Boyd, reliever Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos – stand among the most discussed trade chips in baseball. But they’re likely not the only Tigers who are on other teams’ radars as the deadline approaches. The club also has an underrated reliever, right-hander Buck Farmer, it could market.

As is the case with Boyd, who’s under control for the next few years, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to deal Farmer. He’s earning a minimal salary right now and won’t make his first of three potential trips through the arbitration process until the offseason. That said, Farmer’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and won’t in the immediate future, which makes him a sensible piece for Detroit to consider parting with in the next few days.

Farmer has been a member of the Tigers since they chose the ex-Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Although he wasn’t a particularly high selection, Farmer climbed up the team’s system to become the Tigers’ second-ranked prospect at Baseball America after the 2014 season, during which he briefly debuted in the bigs. At the time, BA contended Farmer could become a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, though it noted the Tigers may decide he’s better off in the bullpen.

Five years later, Farmer has indeed found his niche in Detroit’s relief corps. After a few seasons of posting mediocre to worse numbers as a starter and reliever, Farmer has morphed into a pleasant surprise this year. Farmer has logged a 3.70 ERA across 41 1/3 innings (45 appearances, one start) thus far. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but Farmer’s strikeout and walk rates (10.67 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) are impressive, as is his 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate, while his 3.20 FIP, 3.36 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP all suggest he has deserved better in the run prevention department. He’s generating groundballs at a 51.4 percent clip, which is exactly 11 percent higher than the GB rate he recorded over a full season of relief work last year. Along with inducing grounders at a below-average rate over 69 1/3 frames then, Farmer put up just 7.4 K/9 against 5.32 BB/9, helping lead to an unspectacular 4.15 ERA/4.46 FIP.

Like last year, Farmer has continued to fire four-seam fastballs at around 95 mph. However, Farmer has somewhat changed his pitch mix since then, per Statcast. He utilized his four-seamer approximately 57 percent of the time in 2018, but it’s down to just over 48 percent now. Meantime, Farmer’s slider usage has climbed significantly – from 17 percent to 27 – while his changeup reliance has continued to hover around the mid-20 percent range. The adjustment to Farmer’s repertoire has worked out. While batters have destroyed his fastball (.436 weighted on-base average, .422 xwOBA), they’ve done next to nothing against his slider (.240/.148) and change (.224/.271). Thanks largely to his hittable heater, Farmer ranks in the basement of the league (its sixth percentile) in hard-hit rate against. Still, his quality offspeed offerings have enabled Farmer to limit hitters to a respectable .320 wOBA/.313 xwOBA overall.

In Farmer, an acquiring team wouldn’t exactly be landing the most exciting option prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, Farmer’s an effective, cheap, controllable reliever who has helped the Tigers this year and would likely aid a contender. It would make sense for Detroit to consider selling high on Farmer in the coming days, and it would be logical for better teams to come calling.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Has This Really Been A Slow Trade Deadline?

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YES. That wasn’t hard. We hear complaints most every summer about a lack of action, but this time they’re legit. But just what kind of a lull are we talking about? How slow has it been?

[RELATED: A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline]

Teams have been quite miserly with swaps in the run-up to the 2019 deadline — a fact that’s all the more notable given the lack of an August trade period. We have seen Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce move on from the Mariners — Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is doing his part, even if his peers are still napping — but otherwise the chief deals have involved Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey, and Martin Maldonado. Each of those players obviously has had success in the majors, but it’s fair to say that none is at anything close to his peak value.

Well, if we aren’t getting any juicy new deals this year, then we’ll just re-live deadlines past. As shown below, we’ve seen some rather significant swaps in the run-ups to each trade deadline over the past five years. Only the 2015 trade period rivals this year’s for a lack of scenery at this stage of the proceedings. There were ultimately some huge trades that year, but virtually all of them occurred between the early period and deadline day itself, which was rather quiet apart from one notable swap that has ultimately had a massive impact on the Mets organization.

[To help you on your trip down memory lane, I’ve included some useful links. The relevant year includes our full database entries from the start of June through to July 25th in each season. If you click the names of the headlining veteran player(s), you’ll go straight to our post for the relevant swap. Trades are ordered from most recent to earliest. We’re looking specifically at deals involving players that were seen as significant pieces for contenders at the time they were swapped, not just interesting trades. Thus, no further discussion of Marco Gonzales, Chris Taylor, and others that happened to be dealt in a deadline run-up.]

2018

Nate Eovaldi; Zach Britton; Jeurys Familia; Brad Hand; Manny Machado; Kelvin Herrera

2017

Anthony Swarzak; Eduardo Nunez; Trevor Cahill; Jaime Garcia; Sergio Romo; David Phelps; David Robertson/Todd Frazier/Tommy Kahnle; J.D. Martinez; Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson; Jose Quintana

2016

Aroldis Chapman; Mike Montgomery; Drew Pomeranz; Brad Ziegler; Bud Norris; Kelly Johnson; James Shields

2015

Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe; Steve Cishek; Scott Kazmir; Alejandro De Aza; Mark Trumbo

2014

Kendrys Morales; Joakim Soria; Chase Headley; Huston Street; Brandon McCarthy; Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel; Jason Grilli/Ernesto Frieri

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mike Moustakas

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You already know the essentials here. Mike Moustakas has twice entered the open market in apparent position to secure a strong, multi-year contract. And he has twice come away with a one-year pillow deal (in each case involving a mutual option that mostly functions to defer some salary). As he closes in on his 31st birthday at the tail end of the 2019 season, Moustakas is still playing well. Can he finally hit it big in free agency? Or will he again be forced to go year-to-year?

When Moustakas first prepared for free agency, entering his age-29 season, he seemed a good bet for a rather hefty contract. He had bounced back well from an injury-limited 2016 campaign; rejecting a qualifying offer was a foregone conclusion. Last winter, the value was down a bit, as were the expectations, but Moustakas still seemed to carry the profile of a player that could hold down regular playing time for a contender. He got a bigger contract, but only a single-season promise.

Fool me once, fool me twice … how about a third time? If the season ended today, I’d be on board once again with predicting multiple seasons at a strong salary. His prior forays may not have ended as hoped, but Moustakas has now twice disproved the doubters. He’s much the same player as ever … thus knocking down some of the biggest questions raised. And there are also some notable shifts in his profile that enhance his appeal.

Offensively, Moustakas hasn’t undergone any reinventions. Instead, he has more or less been the best possible version of himself in 2019. His 123 wRC+ matches his career-best mark from his breakout 2015 season. He’s still tough to strike out (16.8%) and is sporting a career-best 8.3% walk rate. Moose is stinging the ball (career-best 43.0% hard-hit rate) and spraying it to all fields more than ever, even while carrying a career-best .276 isolated power mark and setting a pace to challenge his personal-high of 38 home runs (he has 26 through 410 plate appearances).

Even if we bake in a bit of regression, we’re looking at a pretty strong baseline here. Moustakas has been about 15% better than the league-average hitter over nearly a five-year span. He has stayed in range of that performance level, establishing quite a consistent path. And he has even ironed out his platoon splits this year, performing a touch better against left-handed pitching than against righties. That shift actually accounts for most of Moustakas’s overall improvement at the plate and could be an interesting development in its own right, though it’s tough to assess whether it’s sustainable. The cherry on top offensively? Moustakas appears to be executing better on the bases, with Fangraphs’ BsR grading him as an approximately average runner this season after panning him in some prior campaigns.

And that’s all before we get to the most interesting aspect of Moustakas … his sudden and surprising defensive versatility. He has typically graded well at third base, so it isn’t as if the glove was ever considered a weakness. But there was concern that we were seeing the beginning of a downturn when Moustakas drew negative metrics in 2017, even though he bounced back to average last year. There never seemed to be much hope that he’d expand his repertoire.

As it turns out, the Brewers had other ideas … and they were pretty good ones. The club made the bold move of signing Moustakas with full intentions of deploying him at second base. As things have shaken out, he has split his time between second and his accustomed hot corner. And … Moustakas has thrived at both, grading as a net positive at his new spot and turning in revived marks from both UZR and DRS at third base.

Any other questions? How about durability and conditioning? The torn ACL that ended Moustakas’s ’16 campaign is fully healed. He has never had trouble staying on the field otherwise. While he’s still not speedy, Moustakas has restored his average sprint speed to pre-2016 levels and improved his home-to-first time in successive seasons (by measure of Statcast). Scouts throwing shade at his dad bod may well be humming a different tune this winter. By measure of the eye test, at least, Moustakas is carrying a relatively svelte physique at the moment.

Moustakas will always be more moose than antelope, but he’s also forcing us to reevaluate what such a creature can do on a ballfield. Right now, Moustakas is maximizing his tools offensively, smoothing some rough edges to various aspects of his game, and showing enhanced defensive value and roster versatility. There are some quality infielders on the upcoming market, most notably hot corner stalwarts Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but there should still be plenty of places for Moustakas to land. While he’ll obviously be entering free agency at a more advanced age than he did in his two prior experiences, the third trip might well end up being his most lucrative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Buyer’s Guide To Stashing Depth At The Trade Deadline

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Anyone that has found their way to this particular plot of internet land is surely familiar with the essentials of the classic summer baseball trade. Good teams acquire useful players from bad ones. Familiar readers have the next key elements down: teams are focused not only on player performance, but on contract rights (in a nutshell: how many years and for how much money?). Attentive MLBTR-ists are also aware of the importance of a whole host of other considerations.

No matter where you are on the spectrum, you probably know that baseball teams have 25 players in uniform at any given time. Most are likely at least vaguely familiar with the concept of the 40-man MLB roster, which consists of those 25 on the active roster along with others that are on optional assignment or the 10-day injured list.

Those basic roster tallies are some of the simplest concepts influencing the transactional market for MLB talent. They can also operate in subtle ways, particularly as they interact with other rules. This year’s most-visible off-field rule change was the creation of the One True Trade Deadline — which, as we explored in depth recently, appears to represent a complete and exception-free bar to the trades of MLB players after July 31st. Long before the explosion in importance of August trades in the seasons leading up to its banishment, the artist formerly known as the revocable waiver trade period provided an important backstop for contenders. You may not have sat back waiting for a major addition, but you knew you could snag a necessary depth piece if a need arose. Not so anymore.

This poses a bit of a dilemma for contenders. They can make educated guesses, but cannot foresee precisely what needs will arise beyond the month of July — after which time they will be limited to acquiring players on minor-league contracts via trade (a potentially useful backstop but rather limited in terms of quality) or MLB players via waiver claim (a complete crap-shoot and, in some cases, untenably expensive). Building depth is obviously of importance … yet teams also cannot stuff their MLB rosters beyond the bounds of the 25 and 40-man limits, thus limiting the volume of MLB-caliber players they can compile. And that’s all before considering the need to utilize 40-man spots on players who are only (or mostly) of value in the future.

So … with no do-overs, what can a contender do to make sure it’s covered? In structuring a slate of acquisition targets, teams will need to look for somewhat creative ways to build in a bit more depth now than they might have in years past. The details will obviously depend upon each organization’s preexisting slate of internal options, but all will share a general interest in obtaining readily stashable players.

Here are a few classes of players that might hold a bit more appeal than usual — or, at least, which might be mined for useful depth pieces that can be filed away in the recesses of the rosters …

[Background Reading: Understanding The New Trade Deadline Rules]

Optionable Players: This one’s sort of obvious in that non-core players are always more appealing when they can be optioned, thus allowing teams much greater flexibility in dealing with roster contingencies that arise. But the ability to send a 40-man roster member down to the minors now takes on even greater potential importance as a deadline strategy. It’s possible to imagine a team acquiring a solid, optionable middle reliever and stashing him right away at Triple-A, utilizing other players on the active roster until a need arises or rosters expand in September. Of course, such players necessarily still occupy valuable 40-man space, so they’re not truly stashed.

Outrighted Players: It’s generally presumed that a player who’s viewed as a trade chip should be showcased at the MLB level in advance of the deadline, but putting a guy on the 40-man can also kill his trade appeal. It goes without saying that a player who cleared outright waivers earlier in the season isn’t going to be seen as a major addition for a contender. But such players can be useful stashes — if, at least, they don’t need to be placed on the MLB roster of an acquiring team unless or until there’s a need. Consider Dan Straily, who was punted from the O’s 40-man and took up an assignment at Triple-A, where he has quietly turned in quality numbers through five starts in the tough International League. Or Diamondbacks catcher John Ryan Murphy, who’d be a worthwhile depth piece for teams worried about being caught thin behind the dish. The Yankees already made a move of this kind. Under the new deadline rules, outrighted MLB contracts (there’s a distinction from minor-league contracts) cannot be traded after July 31st.

Outright-able Players: No, we’re not suggesting that an under-water contract is a positive asset. But a big salary can help a player make it through outright waivers, before or even after the trade deadline (at which point such players can be claimed, but likely wouldn’t be if their contract is too expensive). The new deadline rules can in this sense function to make it more appealing for a contender to take on an underperforming contract to facilitate the acquisition of another player. Even if you don’t have immediate use for the overpriced player, he might be a useful depth option that wouldn’t otherwise be available if you outright and stash him after the deal goes through. For this scheme to work, such players would have to be ineligible to elect free agency while keeping their guaranteed money, meaning we’d be looking at guys with less than five years of MLB service. Players like Mike Montgomery, Travis Shaw, Delino DeShields Jr., and Adam Conley might represent possibilities. It’s admittedly a narrow opening, but that’s sort of what we’re looking for here — outside-the-box means by which teams can find just the right piece to squeeze in some post-July protection.

Players On 60-Day Injured List: This might be the most interesting possibility for a truly new angle on the deadline. In past years, players on the 60-day injured list would generally have been held back in hopes they’d return to action in August and morph back into a trade piece. Now, we could see them moved by the end of July, even if it’s not entirely clear when or even whether they’ll make it back in action down the stretch. You’re allowed to trade for injured players, even if it doesn’t typically happen very often. Indeed, such players can shift directly from the corresponding injured list of one team to that of another, which means that players on the 60-day injured list need not even temporarily occupy a 40-man spot. Clubs can assess injury expectations, in some cases by watching players on their rehab assignments, and reasonably project those players’ timelines and potential value as a depth option. A few conceivable options that are or could be put on the 60-day IL include Hunter Strickland (if he’s not activated before the deadline), Josh Harrison, Tyson Ross, Edinson Volquez, Nick Vincent, Nate Karns, and Luke Farrell. Some of the injured guys are also candidates to be outrighted, which adds to the roster-stashing options but obviously also suggests they aren’t going to be taken on unless other financial elements or other players are also involved.

Players On 10-Day Injured List: When contemporary baseball thinking met the 10-day IL, we saw an explosion in the number of players hitting the shelf. Now, names are constantly shuffling on and off the list of walking wounded. That can create some opportunities for attentive teams. Such players still require 40-man spots and would ultimately need to be restored to the active roster once they are healthy and have run through their rehab time. But with September active roster expansion not far off, and lengthy rehab clocks available to work with (20 days for position players, 30 for pitchers), a creative club might add a piece knowing that the new addition ought to be available down the stretch and won’t force the team’s hand from a roster perspective — even if they’re out of options. Such players can simply be designated or pushed to the 60-day IL as needed in August and beyond. Dee Gordon, Clayton Richard and Jesse Biddle are possible examples. Beyond the roster-stretching possibilities, players on the 10-day IL that are expected back in relatively short order — say, Zack Wheeler or Shawn Kelley, to take two prominent examples — are generally much likelier to be dealt in July despite their health status than would’ve been the case in years prior.

Underwhelmed? Well, that’s sort of the point. We’re looking in the margins here. Teams obviously aren’t going to be going wild chasing down these sub-groups of players. If they feel exposed in certain areas — organizational catching depth, say, or passable middle-relief arms — they’ll also look into dealing for players on minor-league deals (before or after the deadline), sign up the few available free agents, and/or mine the indy ball (or even international) leagues for players. Still, the above categories afford a few additional avenues for dealing with the new limitations in the era of the unitary trade deadline.

Oscar Mercado Has Helped Rescue Indians’ Season

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Cleveland came into 2019 as a three-time defending AL Central champion, but the club looked as if it was relinquishing its status as a powerhouse over the first couple months of the season. Owing partially to serious injuries or illnesses to starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the Indians were a somewhat unthinkable 26-27 after a loss in Boston on May 27. At that point, 10 games back of the emergent Twins in their division, the Indians appeared to be on their way to serving as trade deadline sellers.

On May 14, two weeks before the Indians sunk below .500, they promoted outfielder Oscar Mercado from Triple-A Columbus. Now, over two months later, Mercado’s call-up stands out as a development that has helped key a turnaround. Even though they’re still without Kluber and Carrasco, the Indians have rallied to 58-41, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and a surmountable three behind the Twins – whom they play 10 more times.

The 24-year-old Mercado is among the reasons there’s now a legitimate battle in the AL Central. He’s just under a year from joining the Indians, with the club having acquired him at last July’s trade deadline from the Cardinals. Mercado was then a solid prospect who was fresh off an effective Triple-A run with the Redbirds. His numbers declined when he transferred to the Tribe’s top affiliate after the trade, but Mercado came back with a vengeance this season. Before his promotion, Mercado slashed .294/.396/.496 (130 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, four home runs and a triple) and 14 stolen bases in 140 plate appearances.

When they summoned Mercado for his first big league experience, the Indians likely would have been thrilled with playable production – let alone above-average numbers. So far, they’ve gotten the latter. Across 230 trips to the plate, Mercado has batted .297/.350/.488 (117 wRC+), swatted eight homers with a respectable .191 ISO, and swiped nine bags on 11 tries. He has also essentially been a scratch defender in center, albeit over a small sample size, with 1 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Back when Mercado joined the Indians, they were still clinging to hope that slumping veteran Leonys Martin would rebound. Martin, returning from the life-threatening bacterial infection he suffered in 2018, was the Indians’ Opening Day center fielder and their go-to choice there over the season’s first couple months. Finally, on June 22, the Indians decided Martin’s rope had run out. They designated him for assignment after Martin hit .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with minus-0.6 fWAR in 264 trips to the plate.

The cutting of Martin, who’s now playing in Japan, officially opened the door for Mercado to assume the outfield’s most important position. Aside from a couple days in which Greg Allen has started at the position, it has belonged to Mercado almost exclusively. Overall, Mercado has been remarkably consistent. His wRC+ by month: 119 in May, 118 in June, 114 in July. The righty’s wRC+ against same-handed pitchers: 119. His wRC+ against lefties: 115.

If you’re looking for negatives, it’s obvious there is some good fortune propping up Mercado’s output. Although Mercado’s one of the game’s fastest players, a .335 batting average on balls in play could be difficult to uphold. And while Mercado’s only striking out at a 17.6 percent clip, he’s walking just 5.6 percent of the time. Statcast, meanwhile, paints somewhat of a bleak picture in regards to his production, placing Mercado in the league’s 39th percentile or worse in expected weighted on-base average (.322, compared to a .357 real wOBA), expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Even if Mercado regresses toward his xwOBA as the season moves along, he’d still qualify as an easy upgrade over Martin, who posted a .270 wOBA before the Tribe cut him. Thanks in part to what Mercado has done so far, the Indians’ outfield hasn’t been the massive question mark it was at the outset of the season. The Indians, set to begin life without Michael Brantley then, ran out an Opening Day outfield of Martin, Jake Bauers in left and Tyler Naquin in right. They’re now going with Mercado, a Bauers/Jordan Luplow platoon in left and Naquin at his season-opening spot on a regular basis.

Bauers has recently put up much better offensive totals than he did during a disastrous May; the righty-swinging Luplow has been a force against lefties throughout 2019; and Naquin has come back well from a pair of lost seasons at the MLB level. However, of the Indians’ main outfielders, it’s Mercado who has been their best. The rookie has played an important role in saving Cleveland’s season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Trading Felipe Vazquez

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Losers of eight of 10 since the All-Star break, the Pirates’ already slim playoff hopes have taken a beating over the past week-plus. At 46-53, they’re six games out of a wild-card spot and 7 1/2 behind the National Central-leading Cubs. Only three NL teams have worse records than the Pirates, who will have to jump seven clubs in order to earn a playoff position. It’s probably safe to say they’re going to extend their postseason drought to four years in 2019.

This happens to be the fourth season in Pittsburgh for reliever Felipe Vazquez, though he’s obviously not to blame for the team’s ongoing struggles. In fact, since the Pirates acquired the flamethrowing left-hander from the Nationals in a deal for veteran reliever Mark Melancon in July 2016, Vazquez has evolved into one of the majors’ premier late-game options. Vazquez was downright exceptional over the previous two seasons, but this may go down as his best campaign to date. The 28-year-old has pitched to a dominant 1.91 ERA/2.02 FIP with 14.03 K/9 against 2.34 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings, adding 21 saves on 22 tries for good measure.

Considering Vazquez’s brilliance, not to mention the Pirates’ woes, there is a case they should consider parting with him before the July 31 deadline. The fact that Vazquez is controllable over the next few seasons for team-friendly salaries would help enable the Pirates to land an enormous return for him. The club shrewdly signed the strikeout artist formerly known as Felipe Rivero to a four-year, $22MM extension months before the 2018 season. He’s under wraps through at least 2021 as a result, though the way his career’s going, it looks like a sure thing right now that his employer will exercise $10MM club options in 2022 and ’23. Granted, those decisions are a long distance off, and considering the volatility of relievers, Vazquez could turn into a pumpkin by then. Perhaps that’s another reason to sell high on Vazquez now. But general manager Neal Huntington doesn’t seem to agree. Huntington has shot down the possibility of a Vazquez trade twice this month, noting both times that he expects the two-time All-Star to be indispensable to the Pirates’ next playoff team.

“Our expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” Huntington said on July 1.

Unlike back then, the Pirates’ season now looks as if it’s close to flatlining. Nevertheless, Huntington remains steadfast in his desire to keep Vazquez, having said this past weekend that “we always have to entertain ways to make this organization — and ideally this current club — better. Sometimes you make the future clubs better, but we fully anticipate Felipe will be closing the next playoff games that we’re a part of.”

It certainly wouldn’t be indefensible on Pittsburgh’s part to retain Vazquez, who’s magnificent and affordable (all the more important for a low-spending franchise). On the other hand, Vazquez would probably be the best relief trade chip in the game if the Pirates were to shop him over the next week. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

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