MLBTR Originals

Make Or Break Year: Mike Moustakas

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 3:22pm CDT

MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.

There are several “make or break” candidates on this year’s Royals team, with pending free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar all having much to prove. But there’s as much variance for third baseman Mike Moustakas as there is for any of those other core K.C. players, and he’ll face the added uncertainty of coming back from an ACL tear suffered last May.

Moustakas, who’ll turn 29 in September, was long viewed as a quality prospect who just hadn’t gained traction in the majors. Through the 2014 season, he had accumulated only a .236/.290/.379 batting line in over 500 games of MLB action. But Moustakas showed life in the 2014 postseason, raising hopes yet again that he’d finally come into his own on the playing field.

As it turned out, that’s just what happened. Moustakas blossomed in the Royals’ 2015 World Series campaign, setting personal-best marks in every triple-slash category (.284/.348/.470) while driving a career-high 22 long balls. And he continued to draw solid ratings for his glovework at the hot corner, leading to a 3.6 fWAR / 4.4 rWAR campaign in which he finally rewarded the organization’s commitment.

Things were off to a rather promising start in 2016, with Moustakas carrying a .240/.301/.500 slash when he hit the operating table. That’s all the more impressive given that he was held back by a .214 BABIP in spite of a 37.4% hard-hit percentage that is better than he’s ever managed over a full season. Plus, Moustakas had tamped down his already excellent strikeout ratio to a personal-low 11.5% level while boosting his walk rate to 8.0%, just below league average. Moustakas was also showing further strides in converting flyballs to home runs, with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio.

All said, the arrow has pointed up for Moustakas ever since he turned things on late in 2014. If he can regain that momentum and prove he’s back to full health, perhaps the missed time won’t prove a major hindrance to his earning power. A big season from Moustakas could leave him targeting something approaching the Pablo Sandoval contract (five years, $95MM), though perhaps only a true breakout campaign would make that achievable. But there’s plenty of earning power downside, too; after all, Moustakas has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his MLB career, and anything short of a productive campaign might put quite a different spin on his overall track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | March 16, 2017 at 8:58pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

As they open SunTrust Park for the 2017 season, the Braves have begun to transition toward competitiveness — though they carefully avoided any lengthy veteran entanglements this winter.

Major League Signings

Bartolo Colon, SP: one year, $12.5MM
Sean Rodriguez, IF: two years, $11MM
R.A. Dickey, SP: one year, $8MM
Kurt Suzuki, C: one year, $1.5MM
Total spend: $33MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Jaime Garcia from Cardinals in exchange for INF Luke Dykstra, SP John Gant, SP Chris Ellis
Acquired 2B Brandon Phillips and $13MM (covers all but $1MM of Phillips’s 2017 salary) from Reds in exchange for RP Andrew McKirahan, RP Carlos Portuondo
Acquired 2B/OF Micah Johnson from Dodgers for PTBNL or cash
Acquired RP Luke Jackson from Rangers for RP Brady Feigl, SP Tyrell Jenkins
Acquired SP Luiz Gohara, RP Thomas Burrows from Mariners for OF Mallex Smith, RP Shae Simmons
Acquired OF/C Alex Jackson, SP Tyler Pike (as PTBNL) from Mariners for SP Rob Whalen, SP Max Povse
Claimed RP Kevin Chapman from Astros
Claimed 1B/OF Adam Walker from Orioles
Claimed RP Armando Rivero from Cubs in Rule 5 draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Lane Adams, Andrew Albers, Xavier Avery, Emilio Bonifacio, Blaine Boyer, Rex Brothers, Sanders Commings, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz, David Hale, Sam Freeman, David Freitas, Balbino Fuenmayor, Blake Lalli, Jacob Lindgren, Kris Medlen, Eric O’Flaherty, Danny Reynolds, Matt Tuiasosopo, Colin Walsh

Extensions

Ender Inciarte, OF: six years, $30.525MM ($9MM club option for 2022; $1.025MM buyout)
Jim Johnson, RP: two years, $10MM

Notable Losses

Jed Bradley (claimed), Ellis, Gant, Tuffy Gosewisch (claimed), Williams Perez (released), A.J. Pierzynski, Simmons, Smith, Chris Withrow (non-tendered)

[Braves Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The pace of moves coming from the Atlanta front office remains dizzying. This time around, while there were still many forward-looking transactions, the club increasingly turned its attention to investing in the 2017 roster.

That’s not to say that the Braves went wild in a push to win now; after all, the club won only 68 games in 2016, despite a strong finish. Instead, the vast bulk of the club’s investments in veteran players are of the one-year variety. The club clearly hopes to boost its on-field product with a new park opening while steering clear of the kinds of moves that could hamper more dedicated future efforts at contending.

GM John Coppolella promised that the rotation would be the focus, and he followed through on that early. Atlanta added two of the game’s oldest players, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, on mid-priced, one-year deals. Talented lefty Jaime Garcia joined the fold, too, in a deal that cost the organization two reasonably promising pitching prospects in John Gant and Chris Ellis.

All said, the rotation promises to be worlds better than the 2016 unit, though it’ll likely be more of a reliably solid unit than any kind of top-tier staff. With the trade rumors in the rear-view — at least until the deadline — top hurler Julio Teheran will look to repeat a strong season. High-octane righty Mike Foltynewicz seems the obvious choice for the fifth spot, and he’ll also seek to build off of the promise he showed in 2016.

The Braves would surely be glad to see that quintet succeed for a full season, though it’s possible to imagine a summer trade if the organization isn’t sticking in the postseason picture. Garcia, in particular, could hold appeal if he performs. Meanwhile, Atlanta will see whether Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims can regain their footing, while veterans such as John Danks, Andrew Albers, and perhaps old favorite Kris Medlen will take up spots in the depth department. Most importantly, perhaps, the club will closely watch the progress of touted arms as Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and the newly acquired Luiz Gohara as they plot a course for the future.

Despite all the changes in the rotation, the bullpen largely returns in its 2016 form. Jim Johnson took an extension just before reaching free agency, and he’s expected to handle closing duties. That job could be contested at some point during the year, though, particularly if Arodys Vizcaino can find his form or Mauricio Cabrera proves as overwhelming as his stuff. Josh Collmenter and Ian Krol are back after agreeing to arb deals, while Jose Ramirez also figures to have a spot locked down. Righty Chaz Roe, who showed well (11.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.60 ERA) in 20 frames after a mid-season claim, is in the mix too, though he’s struggled badly in Spring Training thus far. Rounding out the pen may come down to a camp battle involving veteran minor-league signees Eric O’Flaherty, Sam Freeman, Rex Brothers, Blaine Boyer, and perhaps also 40-man members Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris.

The Braves’ most notable moves on the position-player side came at second base. The team thought it had its man in Sean Rodriguez, who got a two-year deal after a career year in Pittsburgh, but a terrifying car crash left him with an injured shoulder and a lengthy rehab timeline. He could miss the majority of the 2017 campaign. That led the Braves to pivot back to Brandon Phillips, who was acquired for a light price and will hold down the fort at second while the team waits for top prospect Ozzie Albies to return from injury, finish his development, and join exciting young shortstop Dansby Swanson in the bigs.

While there was chatter that the Braves would pursue an upgrade behind the dish, the club ultimately passed on free agents such as Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, and the recovering Wilson Ramos. Instead, the club added Kurt Suzuki on a modest pact to join Tyler Flowers in some kind of time share. Anthony Recker remains on hand as a third option, so things are set for the time being. In the long term, though, the catching position remains one of uncertainty.

Questions Remaining

Most of the organization’s notable holes were plugged in some way, as might have been expected. But there’s plenty of variability on this roster, and there are a few areas which remain unsettled as the season draws near.

There was speculation before the offseason that Atlanta might look to upgrade at third base, where the team is set to feature Adonis Garcia. The 31-year-old has shown flashes of ability in his brief time in the majors, but he has yet to show the kind of consistency that warrants regular playing time. Garcia improved with the bat and the glove after a rough first half in 2016, though he still ended the year with a below-average .273/.311/.406 batting line and negative grades on the bases and in the field.

To be fair, parting with significant resources to add a player such as Todd Frazier (via trade) or Justin Turner (through free agency) probably wasn’t sensible from a long-term perspective. And it’s certainly possible that Atlanta foresaw a scenario where Rodriguez would have shifted to the hot corner upon the ascension of Albies, or where Garcia would give way to prospect Rio Ruiz. But the Braves could have placed a smaller bet on someone like Luis Valbuena or Trevor Plouffe to bolster the third base situation, so there were alternatives. Whether the team made the right call to give Garcia another full season of playing time remains to be seen.

The outfield, too, still seems in need of a supplemental player. Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly deserving of the vast bulk of the time in center, which he’ll surely receive (more on him below). But Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis aren’t exactly mid-prime corner options. While they’ll see the lion’s share of the time, their own value would likely be maximized if they receive regular rest.

Among the organization’s current options, veteran Emilio Bonifacio may have the inside track on such a role. He’s more of a utilityman than a true outfielder, but would generally meet the team’s reported desire for a right-handed hitter who can play center. (Bonifacio does have a good bit of MLB experience there; the switch-hitter has also traditionally fared better against southpaw pitching.) Other internal reserve possibilities, such as Micah Johnson and Adam Walker, don’t quite match the job description, and Johnson is now out of the picture in the short term anyhow after suffering a fractured wrist. There’s been some chatter that the Braves are interested in veteran Angel Pagan, though it seems the team hasn’t offered enough to draw him in.

There are broader bench questions, too. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is a rather obvious choice to earn one spot; he’ll likely spend some time spelling the team’s right-handed-hitting second and third basemen. Otherwise, light-hitting utilityman Chase d’Arnaud seems to have the inside track. If it’s d’Arnaud, Peterson, and Bonifacio to go with the second catcher, and the Braves use an eight-man pen, that doesn’t leave much in the way of offensive ability on the bench.

On the pitching side, there is certainly a fair bit of depth, and the bullpen is in solid shape. Despite all the additions to the rotation, though, that unit may not be as great an asset as might be hoped. Dickey and Colon are both over 40; while that hasn’t stopped them from being sturdy and effective to this point, there’s always the possibility of a significant fall-off given their age. Garcia carries long-term health questions and wasn’t that effective in 2016. And while there’s talent beyond that group, only Teheran has clearly established himself as a high-quality MLB starter.

It obviously wouldn’t have made much sense for the Braves to prioritize 2017 too heavily in making winter moves. But the club did dabble in the market for such quality, controllable arms as Jose Quintana and Chris Archer. Any such acquisition would’ve been a major trade that could well have required paying too high a price (quite possibly including Swanson), but clearly that kind of arm would’ve represented a more significant upgrade. The Braves will be content to roll the dice with what they have, and to keep knocking on those doors, but as presently constituted the rotation has plenty of potential to disappoint.

Deal Of Note

The rebuilding process isn’t just about securing young talent. It’s also about sorting through it and planning ahead for when it’s all available at the MLB level.

When the Braves struck the stunning deal last winter that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, much of the focus landed on Swanson — and rightfully so. But the deal also delivered Blair and the underappreciated Ender Inciarte, who many thought might be flipped.

Inciarte, however, wasn’t dealt. And though he struggled early, he turned things on in the second half and ended up with another 3+ WAR campaign. While the Braves had another chance to weigh trade offers, the club chose instead to commit to the Super Two-eligible player this winter in the form of a five-year contract extension.

The total outlay to Inciarte — just over $30MM — is low enough that it won’t hurt too badly if the investment falls flat. That’s an unlikely outcome, as his defensive and baserunning abilities give him a fairly sturdy floor as a useful fourth outfielder even in a downside scenario.

While the Braves have been downright aggressive in hunting for high-upside players in recent years, and have also committed some near-term funds to veterans, the Inciarte deal is another kind of transaction entirely. Much like the division-rival Phillies’ nearly identical deal with Odubel Herrera, this extension represents the placement of a piece of the puzzle for seasons far beyond the present. Particularly given the most likely alternative — shopping Inciarte for yet more pre-MLB talent — the contract is as clear an indication as any that the organization is ramping up for contention.

Overview

Few will pick the Braves to make the postseason in 2017, or even to remain in the hunt as summer turns to fall. But there’s an expectation for improvement — and, perhaps, also the beginnings of some pressure. Fan expectations are rising with the new park and new player investments. Some of the organization’s hyped upper-level players are entering the phase where they will need to prove their worth in the majors or step aside. And the plans of the front office will increasingly be put to the test as the organization seeks to convert the talent it has accumulated into wins.

What’s your take on the Braves’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Braves' winter?

B 53.77% (3,173 votes)

A 20.13% (1,188 votes)

C 19.98% (1,179 votes)

D 4.05% (239 votes)

F 2.07% (122 votes)

Total Votes: 5,901

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | March 15, 2017 at 9:07am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

Even though the Astros underwhelmed en route to 84 wins and a third-place finish in the American League West in 2016, they still entered the offseason in enviable shape. When previewing their winter in October, I wrote, “Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.” Luhnow followed through, leading PECOTA to project an AL-high 93 wins for his club this year.

Major League Signings

Josh Reddick, OF: Four years, $52MM
Carlos Beltran, DH: One year, $16MM
Charlie Morton, RHP: Two years, $14MM
Total spend: $82MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired C Brian McCann and cash considerations from Yankees for RHPs Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman
Acquired cash or a player to be named later from Phillies for RHP Pat Neshek
Claimed OF Nori Aoki off waivers from Mariners
Claimed LHP Ashur Tolliver off waivers from Angels

Notable Minor League Signings

C.J. Riefenhauser, Reid Brignac, Juan Centeno, Dayan Diaz

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Neshek, Jason Castro, Doug Fister, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena

Astros Roster; Astros Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The 2016 Astros featured one of the majors’ least valuable outfields, a seven-man group which compiled a woeful .224/.302/.380 batting line (good for an AL-worst 86 wRC+) in 2,187 plate appearances. Carlos Gomez, whom Houston released in August, was one of the primary reasons for the unit’s bottom-of-the-barrel output. But nearly everyone else in the septet also failed to impress (only George Springer pulled his weight), so Luhnow elected to make over the outfield during the offseason. As a result of his moves, Springer will shift from right to center after logging just 17 appearances at the latter spot over his first three seasons.

The changes started with an early November waiver claim, Nori Aoki, whom the Astros picked up from the AL West rival Mariners. At $5.5MM, Aoki should give the Astros an acceptable left field regular at a reasonable price, though the 35-year-old’s upside is limited. The Japan native has been a competent hitter since debuting stateside in 2012, having slashed .286/.353/.387 while registering a minimal strikeout rate (8 percent) in 2,670 trips to the plate. However, there’s little power to speak of – as his career ISO (.100) shows – and he’s no longer a stolen base threat. After swiping anywhere from 14 to 30 bags in each of his first four seasons, Aoki was successful on only seven of his 16 attempts a year ago. He also had an ugly season versus same-sided pitchers (.227/.299/.258), albeit only over 108 PAs. Historically, Aoki has held his own against both left- and right-handed hurlers. He has also typically been a decent defender (6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, one Defensive Run Saved), but his minus-four DRS and minus-5.5 UZR from 2016 pale in comparison to both his career numbers and the brilliant work of predecessor Colby Rasmus (20 DRS, 14.9 UZR last season). The Astros understandably said goodbye to Rasmus, however, on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he hit a meager .206/.286/.355 in 417 tries.

Aoki figures to serve as a stopgap as the Astros await the arrivals of both Kyle Tucker, who tops out at No. 19 in Baseball America’s prospect rankings, and Derek Fisher (83rd on MLB Pipeline’s list), whereas Josh Reddick will occupy a spot in the team’s outfield for the long haul. At $52MM, the right fielder is in possession of the largest contract the Astros have awarded since Jim Crane bought the franchise in 2011. Reddick debuted in earnest that year with the Red Sox and has since slashed a respectable .259/.321/.435 in 2,809 PAs while thriving in the field (54 DRS, 41.2 UZR). The lefty-swinging 30-year-old does come with troubling platoon issues, though, having batted .218/.280/.360 line in 800 PAs against same-handed pitchers. He hit a nadir in that department last year with a hideous .155/.212/.155 line over 104 trips to the plate as an Athletic and Dodger. Should that carry into this season, the Astros do have righty-hitting outfield reserves he could platoon with in Jake Marisnick and Teoscar Hernandez, though utilizing a fairly expensive player in a timeshare wouldn’t be ideal.

In addition to securing Aoki and Reddick, the Astros acquired two more prominent players for their lineup in catcher Brian McCann and designated hitter Carlos Beltran. All of Aoki, Reddick, McCann and Beltran bat from the left side (Beltran’s a switch-hitter; more on him later), meaning an Astros team that went into the offseason with mostly right-handers came out with a balanced lineup. The four newcomers will complement righties in Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis.

While the power-hitting Gattis ostensibly could have taken the reins at catcher (he earned mostly positive defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner in 52 games there last year), Houston instead swung a trade for the more established McCann. In doing so, the Astros lost a couple promising arms, per FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, and subsequently saw previous starting backstop Jason Castro and his excellent pitch-framing skills head to the Twins in free agency. Nevertheless, the 33-year-old McCann isn’t exactly a slouch behind the plate, and he’s a much better offensive player than Castro. Although McCann is no longer the force he was in Atlanta, where he slashed .277/.350/.473 from 2005-13, he is coming off a three-year stretch in which he hit an above-average .232/.320/.456 with the Yankees.

Among the pitchers who will throw to McCann is Charlie Morton, who will slot into the Astros’ rotation after totaling only 17 1/3 innings last season. Then with the Phillies, Morton suffered a torn hamstring in late April and didn’t pitch again. Morton did show encouraging signs during a tiny sample of work, though, as he ran his average fastball velocity up to a personal-best 93.3 (well above his 91.5 lifetime mark) and posted a 12.3 percent swinging-strike rate (far better than his 7.8 percent career figure). The 33-year-old has since thrown even harder this spring, and if those velocity gains stick, he could be a lot more interesting than the pitcher he was with Atlanta and Pittsburgh from 2008-15. To his credit, Morton did have some strong seasons with the Pirates, and his career 55.4 percent ground-ball rate makes him a good fit for a Houston team which plays in a homer-friendly ballpark and has a quality defensive infield. The biggest concern with Morton arguably centers on health, as he wasn’t able to avoid the disabled list in any of the previous five seasons. On the other hand, the still-unsigned Doug Fister – whom Morton is replacing – was one of just two Astros who threw at least 180 innings last year.

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Questions Remaining

Regardless of whether it’s fair, many are reluctant to brand the Astros as legitimate contenders because of perceived weaknesses in their rotation. In addition to the less-than-durable and typically mediocre Morton, they’re set to run out other starters off injury-shortened seasons in Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. Keuchel is only two years removed from winning the AL Cy Young, but he tumbled to earth last year and then saw his season end in late August on account of shoulder inflammation. Despite an untenable walk rate (5.0 per nine), the curveball-loving McCullers stymied opposing offenses, though he dealt with shoulder and elbow issues along the way and didn’t pitch past Aug. 2.

While Morton, Keuchel and McCullers are now healthy, the Astros’ other two expected starters – Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers – aren’t at full strength. Even when they are, nobody would count either as a front-line starter, which is arguably a need for the Astros. Management doesn’t seem content with the team’s rotation options, as president Reid Ryan observed in December that Houston’s missing an ace and Luhnow attempted to trade for one throughout the offseason. Luhnow’s efforts focused on the likes of Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Danny Duffy, Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, among others. Sale ultimately went from the White Sox to the Red Sox; Archer is still with the Rays, who aren’t in any rush to move him; Duffy signed an extension with the Royals; and Gray is now injured. That leaves Quintana, who looks like a shoo-in to leave the ChiSox via trade sometime soon. It’s no secret that the Astros want Quintana (as MLBTR’s Quintana archives show), but they’re also unwilling to deal a package consisting of Tucker and right-handers Francis Martes and Joe Musgrove to nab the ace southpaw.

Assuming a trade doesn’t come together by Opening Day, the Astros might not enter 2017 with a No. 1-caliber starter (though Keuchel certainly was one from 2014-15). Nevertheless, they will have at least six major league-caliber starters, including Musgrove, who showed well in his 62-inning debut last year and now looks ticketed for Triple-A. The 21-year-old Martes, meanwhile, is a unanimous top 40 prospect who will join Musgrove in Fresno and could break into the Astros’ rotation this season. Yet another Fresno-bound starter, David Paulino, is on a few top 100 lists, while Brady Rodgers is also on hand as further depth.

Sticking with pitching, Luhnow called the need to find another left-handed reliever as “glaring” going into the winter. He didn’t end up adding any to the Astros’ bullpen, though, meaning they’ll again count on Tony Sipp as their lone southpaw. Although Sipp was dreadful last season, he was highly effective in the preceding two seasons. Even if he’s unable to bounce back this year, Houston should still have an elite bullpen with Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz setting up closer Ken Giles. All five of those righties handled lefty-swingers a year ago.

Supporting the Astros’ pitchers will be a lineup featuring three stars (Altuve, Correa and Springer) and several useful complements (Beltran, Reddick, McCann, Aoki and Gattis). There are questions centering on their other two prominent hitters, Gurriel (first base) and Bregman (third base). With uncertainty surrounding those two, it’s possible the Astros will miss Luis Valbuena, who signed with the Angels after a two-year stretch in Houston in which he manned both corner infield spots and batted .238/.329/.446 across 835 PAs.

The 32-year-old Gurriel had been a superstar in both Cuba and Japan, which helped lead the Astros to sign him to a $47.5MM contract last July, but he didn’t post appealing results in his late-season debut in the majors. Over 137 PAs, Gurriel batted a subpar .262/.292/.385. It would be unwise to write Gurriel off based on that small sample, of course, and Luhnow said last week he expects Gurriel “to be a high-average hitter who is going to hit a lot of doubles, have double-digit home run power and play very good defense at first or third or wherever he’s asked to play.”

Bregman offers even more hope, as the 22-year-old lived up to his elite prospect hype by slashing .264/.313/.478 in his first 217 major league PAs last season. However, as Tony Blengino of FanGraphs explained earlier this month, Bregman’s batted-ball data indicates he was quite fortunate to have as much success as he did. That doesn’t mean Bregman will disappoint in 2017, but it might be wise to tamp down short-term expectations.

Deal Of Note

McCann was teammates with Beltran in each of the past three seasons in New York, and the former helped the Astros reel in the latter, according to Luhnow. Even with recruiting help from McCann, Houston had to pony up $16MM for Beltran, who encountered a robust market for his services despite being a one-dimensional player entering his age-40 season. Along with the Yankees, who had interest in re-signing Beltran, the Red Sox, Indians and Blue Jays were in the mix for the potential Hall of Fame outfielder. The Astros were confident they were going to pick up either Beltran or now-Indian Edwin Encarnacion, and they emerged with the older, less effective and cheaper player. That sounds harsh, but it’s not meant to knock Beltran, who remains an outstanding hitter.

Although he struggled in his first year as a Yankee, perhaps because of an injury, Beltran bounced back over the previous two seasons to combine for a terrific .286/.337/.493 line with 48 home runs – including 29 in a 2016 season spent between New York and Texas. Still in the Lone Star State, Beltran will try to help the Astros overtake the Rangers, winners of back-to-back AL West titles. Of course, this isn’t Beltran’s first stint in Houston – that came after it acquired him from the Royals in a June 2004 trade. Beltran flourished, especially when he nearly mashed the Astros to a World Series berth that October, and then left as a free agent at season’s end. Thirteen years later, he should again provide a threatening offensive presence on an Astros team with championship aspirations.

Overview

Back in June 2014, when the Luhnow-led Astros were wrapping up a long rebuild, Sports Illustrated declared that the franchise would win its first World Series in 2017. While that might prove overly optimistic roughly eight months from now, it’s clear that the Astros belong on a short list of legitimate championship contenders heading into the regular season. At the very least, thanks in part to Luhnow’s maneuverings from this past winter, Houston should be the favorite to win its division – a feat the team hasn’t achieved since 2001, when it was a member of the National League Central.

What’s your take on the Astros’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Astros' winter?

B 60.37% (777 votes)

A 28.21% (363 votes)

C 9.40% (121 votes)

D 1.24% (16 votes)

F 0.78% (10 votes)

Total Votes: 1,287

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Out Of Options 2017

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2017 at 1:31pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources when possible, but may be incomplete for a handful of teams. I’ll update the post as confirmed information comes in.

Angels

Austin Adams, Kirby Yates, Cam Bedrosian, JC Ramirez

Astros

Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

Athletics

Stephen Vogt, Liam Hendriks, Raul Alcantara

Blue Jays

Mike Bolsinger, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Goins, Bo Schultz

Braves

Kevin Chapman, Chase d’Arnaud, Ian Krol, Jose Ramirez, Chaz Roe

Brewers

Tommy Milone, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar, Jhan Marinez, Wily Peralta, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina, Carlos Torres

Cardinals

Greg Garcia, Tyler Lyons, Miguel Socolovich

Cubs

Matt Szczur, Mike Montgomery, Hector Rondon

Diamondbacks

Randall Delgado, Chris Herrmann

Dodgers

Chris Hatcher, Luis Avilan

Giants

Hunter Strickland, George Kontos, Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Cory Gearrin, Conor Gillaspie

Indians

Trevor Bauer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer, Zach McAllister, Dan Otero, Danny Salazar

Mariners

Leonys Martin, Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent

Marlins

Derek Dietrich, Adeiny Hechavarria, Dan Straily, Jose Urena, Jeff Locke

Mets

Josh Edgin, Wilmer Flores

Nationals

Clint Robinson, Enny Romero

Orioles

Brad Brach, Zach Britton, Dylan Bundy, Oliver Drake

Padres

Christian Bethancourt, Paul Clemens, Jarred Cosart, Christian Friedrich, Brad Hand, Luis Sardinas

Phillies

Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez

Pirates

Alen Hanson, Wade LeBlanc, Felipe Rivero

Rangers

Sam Dyson, Jeremy Jeffress

Rays

Chris Archer, Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, Danny Farquhar, Nick Franklin, Erasmo Ramirez, Jumbo Diaz

Red Sox

Josh Rutledge, Tyler Thornburg, Sandy Leon, Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, Christian Vazquez, Heath Hembree, Bryce Brentz

Reds

Arismendy Alcantara, Tony Cingrani, Blake Wood

Rockies

Cristhian Adames, DJ LeMahieu, Jordan Lyles, Chris Rusin

Royals

Christian Colon, Cheslor Cuthbert

Tigers

Andrew Romine, Tyler Collins, Jose Iglesias, Dixon Machado, Steven Moya

Twins

Ehire Adrianza, Eduardo Escobar, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin

White Sox

Matt Davidson, Leury Garcia, Dan Jennings, Rymer Liriano, Yolmer Sanchez, Michael Ynoa

Yankees

Dellin Betances, Tommy Layne, Aaron Hicks, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Chris Carter

Special thanks to J.P. Hoornstra and Adam McCalvy for their assistance.

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2017 at 9:42am CDT

All of the top free agents from last winter have found homes, and Opening Day 2017 is less than three weeks away. Here at MLBTR we like to keep an early eye on the next free agent class. The players referenced in this post are scheduled to become free agents after the 2017 season. These rankings are subject to change each month, as players drop off due to extensions, injuries, or poor performance, while others see their stock rise. A year ago, our rankings were led by Stephen Strasburg, who signed an extension in May, and Carlos Gomez, who wound up released in August and ultimately signed the 36th-largest contract of the 2016-17 offseason. Dexter Fowler, who ended up with the third-largest free agent contract, didn’t crack our top ten until May.

The goal here is to rank earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. For the full list of 2017-18 MLB free agents, click here.

1. Jake Arrieta. You could reasonably put the first three pitchers on this list in any order. All three were born within a six-month span in 1986. Currently, Arrieta stands as our “top gun.” Since joining the Cubs in a legendary 2013 trade, the righty boasts a 2.52 ERA and 8.9 K/9 in 634 2/3 regular season innings. He peaked with the NL Cy Young Award in 2015, and also finished ninth in 2014 and ’16. Arrieta will pitch the 2018 season at age 32, which makes a six-year deal a long shot. Zack Greinke is an exception, though his contract is probably one most front offices do not want to emulate. As a player known to be in top physical condition, Arrieta at least has a case for six years (but almost certainly not seven). He’s been DL-free since a stint in early 2014 and has a relatively low pitching odometer, as agent Scott Boras likes to say. Before Arrieta can make the six-year argument, however, he must shake off a decidedly mediocre finish to his 2016 season, as he posted a 4.05 ERA and 3.75 BB/9 over his final 20 regular season starts. Aside from the term, there’s also the question of average annual value. That could push into the low-$30MM range, as achieved by David Price, Max Scherzer, and Greinke.

2. Yu Darvish. Darvish, the strikeout king of this free agent class, could ease concerns with a healthy 2017. The big blemish on Darvish’s record is his Tommy John surgery in March 2015. As a result of the surgery, Darvish went about 22 months between Major League starts. He made his 2016 debut in late May, and after three starts he missed another 37 days with shoulder discomfort. That injury was seemingly connected to his long recovery from Tommy John. Like Arrieta, Darvish may have difficulty finding teams willing to guarantee a six-year contract. Darvish should still be able to surpass the current free agent record contract for a Tommy John survivor, the five-year, $110MM deal Jordan Zimmermann received from the Tigers in November 2015. One point in Zimmermann’s favor: his surgery was further in the rearview mirror, as he had posted five full healthy seasons after the procedure. Darvish, of course, is a different kind of pitcher, one of the most dominant in the game. Another season like 2013, when he finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting, could send free agent bidding through the roof.

3. Johnny Cueto. Cueto’s case is just about as strong as that of Arrieta or Darvish. Cueto has pitched at least 212 regular season innings in each of the last three seasons, quieting mild concerns about his health. He was part of the fabled free agent pitching class of 2015-16, one of seven starting pitchers to receive at least $80MM that winter. Heading into his age-30 season, Cueto landed a six-year, $130MM deal with the Giants. He could have done even better, but instead wisely secured an opt-out clause after the second year of the contract. After the 2017 season, Cueto must decide whether he should opt out and try to top the four years and $84MM remaining on the contract. With another vintage Cueto season, a five-year contract at a high-$20MM range AAV would be expected. More than $50MM could hang in the balance. Alternately, the Giants could just extend Cueto’s contract an additional year at a strong salary, as the Yankees did under the threat of C.C. Sabathia opting out after the 2011 season.

4. Masahiro Tanaka. Though he’s every bit as talented as the pitchers listed above, and a couple years younger, I’ve got Tanaka in a slightly lower tier. Tanaka joined the Yankees from Japan for the 2014 season, but made only 44 regular season starts over his first two campaigns. You may recall that in July of 2014, Tanaka was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Tanaka chose a platelet-rich plasma injection and the rehab route. Two and a half months later, he was pain-free and back on a big league mound. The following season, a forearm strain knocked him out for over a month. Tanaka surprised many by making 31 starts in 2016, though his season ended early with a seemingly minor flexor mass strain. Like Darvish, Tanaka faces a crucial 2017 season in proving his health. If Tanaka does finish the season healthy, he could do much better than the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract, which could prompt him to opt out. Or, the Yankees could add a year or two to the deal. On a brand new contract, Tanaka could get a five-year deal despite his early MLB health history. It all depends on how his right elbow holds up this year.

5. Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy currently profiles as the best position player on the 2017-18 free agent market. The Rangers’ catcher, 31 in June, signed an early-career extension in 2012 as a member of the Brewers. Including an exercised club option, Lucroy ended up getting $17MM for what would have been four arbitration years and his first free agent year. He’s now approaching his best chance to cash in. Lucroy was arguably the best catcher in baseball last year, and in 2014 as well. With another strong year, he should be able to push the limits of what a free agent catcher can get, possibly surpassing the five-year, $82-85MM deals given to Russell Martin and Brian McCann.

6. J.D. Martinez. The bottom half of this list inspired the most debate among MLBTR writers. Martinez, 30 in August, has proven himself as a 30 home run bat since his career renaissance with the Tigers. After hitting 38 home runs in 2015, Martinez lost a month and a half last year with a non-displaced fracture of the radial neck at the right elbow last year. He crushed the ball in 55 games after his return. The concern with Martinez is his right field defense, which UZR suggested was above average in 2015 and well below-average in 2016. Kyle Yost and Brandon Day of Bless You Boys recently took an in-depth look at Martinez’s glovework, which the player acknowledges is an area of focus for him this year. With a reasonable rebound of his defensive metrics, Martinez is a candidate for a five-year deal worth $100MM or more. Since 2014, he’s been one of the dozen best hitters in baseball, on par with Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman.

7. Eric Hosmer. Hosmer may be the most polarizing 2017-18 free agent. The Royals’ first baseman, who turns 28 in October, has long been considered a candidate for a megadeal in free agency. Recently, many have been questioning that possibility. The Wins Above Replacement metric doesn’t do Hosmer any favors, as his career total of 5.9 was exceeded by 15 different players in 2016 alone. Traditionally a low-power first baseman, Hosmer just didn’t hit much in 2012, ’14, or ’16. In an attempt to rationalize Hosmer’s apparent earning power, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs noted that he’s been a much better hitter in high leverage situations, and that advanced metrics may underrate his defense. The question is whether MLB’s increasingly analytical front offices will be swayed by those points and whatever else makes it into Scott Boras’ binder for Hosmer. At this point, Hosmer is propped up by excellent marketing. For any of the knocks on him, there is a rebuttal. The Royals love Hosmer, and if a few more teams also buy in, he should be able to land five or more years.

8. Justin Upton. In my discussions with the MLBTR team, several of our writers recommended Upton be omitted. To even reach free agency, he’d have to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his contract with the Tigers. I think that’s enough of a possibility to include him here, even after a disappointing first year with Detroit. Though Upton has never hit more than 31 home runs, the 29-year-old remains capable of bigger things. After a couple brutal months to start his 2016 season, Upton hit 28 bombs over his final 429 plate appearances. While 40 home runs doesn’t always lead to free agent riches (see Chris Carter and Mark Trumbo), Upton might be able to land a new five-year deal in excess of $100MM with a big season. The safe move is to stick with his Tigers contract, though.

9. Carlos Gonzalez. In CarGo, we have another player to whom WAR is not kind. Gonzalez, 31, has become a one-dimensional player, with power as his calling card. He’s not one to draw a walk, and he’s not known for his defense. That was a problem for Trumbo in free agency, but Gonzalez strikes out less often and doesn’t carry a reputation as a terrible defender. Gonzalez does bear a different burden, with extreme home/away splits. Taken out of Coors Field, Gonzalez may be of limited appeal to MLB teams. He may need another 40 home run season to keep his spot on this list.

10. Mike Moustakas. Moustakas, 28, had a breakout 2015 season for the Royals but missed most of last season with an ACL tear. Given positive contributions with both offense and third base defense, as well as his relative youth, Moose could push for a four or five-year contract with a full return to form.

A half-dozen players just missed making the list: Chris Tillman, Todd Frazier, Michael Pineda, Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, and Wade Davis. We’ll be updating these rankings every month during the season.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Part 1

By Tim Dillard | March 13, 2017 at 7:30pm CDT

It’s 6:18pm in Pheonix, Arizona. Sunday March 12th, 2017. My name is Tim Dillard. I’m 33. I play professional baseball, and after a day of Spring Training practice… I’m sitting in a hotel room trying to think of something to write about for MLB Trade Rumors. They contacted me with the false hope I could write something truly captivating and insightful about baseball. So after very little reflection and contemplation, I’ve decided to just start typing the inner thoughts about my day. At this particular moment, yes I do think this is a good idea.

6:21pm Okay wait, did I just misspell Phoenix a few minutes ago? I must be tired. During spring training, because of how early practice is, I usually go to bed around 8pm. I blame the sun. The sun out here is notorious for draining the energy right out of you. Or I could just be hungry.

6:48pm Well my trip to Taco Bell was indeed a success! Much like yesterday… and most of last week.

6:49pm Usually when I’m away from home, I try to eat at all the places my wife refuses to dine. Tomorrow I’m hitting up Long John Silver (which conveniently shares a building with Taco Bell).

6:53pm Today, in-between spring training activities, I made time to share some of my baseball knowledge and wisdom with a younger generation of ballplayers. And they found time to remind me that I am still the oldest and most bearded guy in Brewers Minor League camp this year. But in their defense, I did utter these phrases at the field today: “Back in my day.”, and of course, “Not my first rodeo!”

6:55pm This is my 14th spring training. And over my career I’ve had the privilege of 12 spring trainings with the Milwaukee Brewers team, and also participated in 2 spring trainings with the unemployment team. Which means I’m enjoying myself, and appreciating baseball now more than ever.

6:58pm Because now at this stage everything is much more precious. My past experiences have taught me to treat EVERY stretch, throwing program, sprint work (not poles), meeting, groundball, light weight training, bunt play, another meeting, conversation, workout, that other meeting, or whatever… with a tangible awareness that I have no idea which day will be my last in a baseball uniform.

7:01pm *grabs tissue, dabs eye* … Allergies out here can be challenging.

7:04pm You know what, looking around, I just noticed I’ve had the exact same room at this hotel for the last 3 spring trainings. Hmm, I wonder how many people have slept in this bed since I was here last?

7:06pm Anyway. During batting practice today I was asked why I run around the outfield like an idiot picking up baseballs. The curious kid that asked is in his very first spring training camp. So I walked up to the young buck (just over half my age), put my hand on his shoulder and said, “Eye wash man! It’s eye wash! I’m just trying to make sure all these coaches out here notice me hustling!” Cause that’s what it’s all about.

7:09pm I mean, that’s part of it I’m sure, but I think some of it is just me being afraid. Like in the movie Field of Dreams. You remember the part when the young ballplayer runs over to help the little girl? And as soon as he steps off the field he instantly transforms into the old white-haired Doctor “Moonlight” Graham? (spoilers) Then we realize he’ll never be able to go back and play baseball ever again! Well that’s kind of how I feel. Except instead of being afraid of transforming into an 87 year-old mustached doctor, I’m afraid every time I leave, a security guard will be instructed to not let me back in.

7:14pm Right now baseball is in full swing (<-pun) and the excitement for baseball is palpable! Like a hibernating bear that wakes up and just screams at everybody. Spring training is that awakening! Not sure who thought it up (you can google it), but it perfectly EASES players, umpires, coaches, broadcasters, bat boys, mascots, popcorn vendors, instant replay technicians, and of course fans seamlessly into another year of baseball history!

7:22pm My roommate just walked in, and has confirmed our room smells like tacos… with just the tiniest hint of fish.

7:25pm Hold on, got a text message…

7:26pm It’s an unnamed teammate asking what time stretch is in the morning. When I get texts like this I usually send the picture I took of the weekly schedule posted in the clubhouse. I always take a picture of the schedule because that’s what professional baseball does! It makes you SUPER paranoid about being late… for anything… ever! This is one of those times paranoia is a good thing. Because as the saying in baseball goes, “If you’re 5 minutes early, You’re 10 minutes late!”

7:36pm Let’s see, what else happened today? Oh yeah, I was asked about the first time I was called up to the Big Leagues. Oh man, these stories are the life blood for Minor League baseball players. We need them. Because it proves The Show is in fact a real place and possibly within grasp. And players crave inspiration. So what could be better than hearing a first hand account of toeing the rubber in a Major League baseball game! But actually my Big League Debut story is kind of an average story at best. In fact, the best part of my debut story is what happened after the game: with me, on a sidewalk, being mistaken for star Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Ben Sheets! Anyway, let’s just say there’s a gentleman out there somewhere with 14 Ben Sheets baseball cards with the signature “Tim Dillard48” scribbled on it!

7:48pm Okay yeah it’s late. As soon as my roommate finishes playing his Call of Medal Duty game, I’m falling asleep in this bed… and pretending it’s a brand new mattress.

To Be Concluded…

You can follow Tim @DimTillard and read more of his work at his blog.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | March 12, 2017 at 9:01am CDT

A roundup of MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini (links here) spoke with new Diamondbacks senior vice president and assistant general manager Jared Porter, who previously worked in the front offices of the Red Sox and Cubs. Porter discussed what it was like to be a member of those two organizations during their championship-winning, drought-breaking campaigns, and he addressed various subjects relating to the Diamondbacks, among other topics.
Another MLBTR contributor, former Cubs front office member Chuck Wasserstrom, chatted with ex-Blue Jays scouting director Tim Wilken about the team’s impressive 1997 draft haul. First-round pick Vernon Wells headlined the class for the Jays, who also selected three other players who became successful big leaguers in Michael Young, Orlando Hudson and Mark Hendrickson.
This year’s Offseason In Review series continued with Mark Polishuk analyzing the Red Sox’s winter and Charlie Wilmoth doing the same with the Brewers’.
Jeff Todd explained that this could be a make-or-break year for Yankees right-hander Michael Pineda, while I took a look at what’s at stake for Diamondbacks righty Shelby Miller.
Lastly, Jeff polled readers on which team will sign arguably the best free agent pitcher left on the board, righty Doug Fister. Out of the six clubs listed, the plurality of voters see the Yankees as the likeliest landing spot. However, “Other” has gotten the most votes so far.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By charliewilmoth | March 9, 2017 at 9:05pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Brewers’ offseason saw them continuing to add young talent, but they also acquired several veterans who should help make them fun to watch as they integrate younger players onto their roster.

Major League Signings

1B Eric Thames: three years, $16MM (including $1M buyout on $7.5MM option for 2020)
RHP Neftali Feliz: one year, $5.35MM
LHP Tommy Milone: one year, $1.25MM (non-guaranteed)

Notable Minor League Signings

Joba Chamberlain, Ryan Webb, Eric Sogard, Ivan De Jesus Jr..

Trades And Claims

Acquired 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington and PTBNL from Red Sox for RP Tyler Thornburg
Acquired C Jett Bandy from Angels for C Martin Maldonado and RHP Drew Gagnon
Claimed 1B Jesus Aguilar from Indians
Lost RHP Miguel Diaz to Twins in Rule 5 Draft

Notable Losses

Chris Carter, Thornburg, Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano

Needs Addressed

The Brewers’ offseason mostly continued their recent trend of rebuilding what had been an aging roster, but their activity this winter also showed small signs that they’re looking toward contending in the near future.

Their first big move of the winter was to replace first baseman Chris Carter with Eric Thames, who signed a three-year, $16MM deal the same day the Brewers designated Carter for assignment, thereby avoiding taking him through the arbitration process. The Carter move was eyebrow-raising — it isn’t every day that a team drops a 41-homer hitter who’s set to receive a seemingly reasonable salary. The arbitration process, though, rewards counting stats like home runs and likely would have minimized Carter’s shortcomings, such as his strikeout and contact issues and lack of defensive value. MLBTR projected in October that Carter would receive $8.1MM through arbitration, and there are suggestions the salary might have gone higher. That sum seems paltry for a prolific home-run hitter, but the apparent ambivalence to one-dimensional power sources on this winter’s market strongly indicates that teams aren’t overly interested in sluggers who don’t bring something else to the table. The Brewers’ inability to trade Carter, as well as his eventual signing with the Yankees on a mere $3.5MM deal, suggest that the league didn’t think Carter was worth nearly as much as the arbitration process would have paid him.

In Carter’s place, the Brewers landed Thames, whose unusual background makes him an interesting and somewhat outside-the-box fit for the team’s first-base opening. Thames spent two forgettable seasons with the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2011 and 2012 before heading to the NC Dinos in South Korea, where he emerged as one of the KBO’s most fearsome sluggers. Even in a league dominated by offense, Thames’ numbers stood out — he hit 124 home runs in Korea in a mere 1,634 plate appearances. He’s also still just 30, young enough that he could have several more power-hitting seasons left in him.

There’s still very limited data on how KBO stats will translate to the Majors, and the existing precedents for prime-age sluggers point in different directions — Jung Ho Kang has been a success (his off-the-field problems notwithstanding), while Byung Ho Park’s first season was a failure. Perhaps the biggest difference between Kang and Park prior to their arrivals in the states, though, was their plate discipline. Kang had 293 strikeouts in his last three seasons in Korea, while Park had a very high 399 (including 161 in his last season there). Thames, like Kang, had 293 whiffs in his three seasons in the KBO, suggesting a balanced approach that could play well as he returns to the big leagues. The well-rounded offensive game Thames demonstrated in Korea, where he posted OBPs above .420 in all of his three seasons, also contrasts sharply with that of Carter. No one really knows how Thames’ game will play in the big leagues at this point, but the Brewers, as a rebuilding club that didn’t have an obvious fix at first, were in great position to gamble on a relative unknown.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Brewers also swapped catchers with the Angels, taking what would appear to be a slight short-term hit to acquire more youth and team control. Martin Maldonado, who headed west in the deal, is a well-regarded pitch framer and an outstanding backup. He only has two years of control remaining before free agency, though, and his struggles to hit for average limit his upside as a starter. In return, the Brewers received Bandy, who’s less of a known quantity but who hit passably in 2016 in his first full year in the big leagues. He’s also three and a half years younger than Maldonado and has five years of team control remaining.

In the bullpen, the Brewers added a new closer in Neftali Feliz, compensating in large part for the departures of Tyler Thornburg (see below), and, before him, Jeremy Jeffress and Francisco Rodriguez. Feliz’s $5.35MM guarantee fell well short of the three-year, $18MM deal MLBTR predicted he’d receive (although Feliz’s contract does contain bonuses for games pitched and games finished that could be quite lucrative if he serves the whole year as a closer). Perhaps the biceps tendinitis that ended Feliz’s 2016 season a month early had a significant effect on his market.

That’s not to say signing with the Brewers didn’t have benefits for Feliz, however. A one-year pact and an opportunity to pitch the ninth could allow him to market himself as a closer next offseason, potentially landing a bigger deal than he would have received had he taken a multi-year contract to pitch elsewhere in a setup role. The Brewers, meanwhile, got a high-velocity righty who could help the back end of their bullpen and be a valuable trade chip in July should they fall out of the race.

The Brewers also added Tommy Milone on a cheap, non-guaranteed deal. Milone will compete for a spot in the back of the Brewers’ rotation, potentially giving the team a left-handed arm to slot alongside what figures to be a large collection of righties. If he doesn’t win that job, he could work as a lefty out of the bullpen (although he’s had relatively even splits throughout his career, meaning he isn’t an obvious fit as a LOOGY). The soft-tossing Milone has never been a star, and he’s coming off a poor season in Minnesota. He had four straight years before that in which he was at least modestly productive, though, and at $1.25MM, he represents only a tiny risk for a team that might need him to eat innings.

Elsewhere, the Brewers attempted to extend infielder Jonathan Villar on a $20MM contract, but were rebuffed. The structure of the deal isn’t currently known, but it presumably would have bought the Brewers control over one or more years beyond 2020, after which Villar is scheduled to become a free agent. Villar is coming off a breakout 2016 in which he led the NL in stolen bases and batted .285/.369/.457; it appears both he and the Brewers are optimistic about his ability to perform at a high level. He’ll play second base in 2017 after manning mostly shortstop and third last year. The move, along with the acquisition of Travis Shaw (see below), bumps Scooter Gennett from the starting lineup after two straight years of just over replacement-level performance.

Questions Remaining

As with most rebuilding teams, the Brewers have no shortage of questions about their roster. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez outlined those questions heading into Spring Training. Notably, the Brewers must decide how best to distribute playing time at catcher between Bandy, Andrew Susac and Manny Pina, as well as which five pitchers should make up a rotation that currently appears to be up in the air beyond Junior Guerra and Zach Davies.

In general, though, most of the organization’s big questions won’t be answered until later. For now, they’ll try to sort through what’s becoming a growing collection of young talent. There are surely positions where they’re more comfortable, such as second base (Villar), shortstop (former top prospect Orlando Arcia, although he struggled in his 2016 rookie season) and center field (where they have 2016 breakout performer Keon Broxton). The Brewers also have capable or potentially capable veterans at first base (Thames), third base (Shaw) and left field (Ryan Braun). Elsewhere, they’ll attempt to address uncertainty with quantity, but it still could be argued that they have the potential for at least average performances at every position on the diamond.

The pitching staff is a different story, and the Brewers’ rotation in particular currently looks weak, with Matt Garza, Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta and Milone among the many merely passable possibilities to fill out the rotation beyond Guerra and Davies (who don’t exactly project to be aces themselves). But that group could solidify in the coming years with the additions of prospects like Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz and Brandon Woodruff, with others perhaps coming along also via trade or the team’s development pipeline. Despite the Feliz addition, the bullpen doesn’t look particularly strong either, although the Brewers’ relief situation could look quite different by the time it looks poised to contend, and they can always add relievers in future offseasons.

The Braun deal the Brewers reportedly pursued with the Dodgers last summer, which would have netted them veteran starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy along with other talent (Yasiel Puig and a pair of prospects of unknown identity), perhaps demonstrates what the Brewers might be thinking should they attempt to move Braun again later. McCarthy would have given the team a potentially productive — albeit risky — rotation option in his second year back after April 2015 Tommy John surgery. The more important likely reason McCarthy came up in trade reports was because the Dodgers wanted to offset some of Braun’s salary, but from the Brewers’ perspective, the fact that McCarthy might have become a decent rotation option was surely a nice perk.

Speaking of that unconsummated trade, one issue that remains unsettled is Braun’s continued presence on the Brewers’ roster despite the recent departures of many of his peers. There weren’t many juicy Braun rumors this offseason, despite the reported potential Dodgers blockbuster last summer. One factor might have been the crowded OF/1B/DH market, which caused many sluggers to languish in free agency well into the new year. Braun is signed through 2020 and controllable through 2021, so the Brewers theoretically have time to trade him, although he already has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to all but six teams, and he will acquire an ironclad no-trade clause if he reaches 10-and-5 status in mid-May.

Deal Of Note

The Brewers’ trade of Thornburg to the Red Sox for Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and a player to be named looks like it improves the organization for the long term, perhaps without even sacrificing much in the short term. Thornburg has, to be sure, become an elite reliever, using an outstanding fastball to post a 2.15 ERA, 3.4 BB/9 and an excellent 12.1 K/9 last season. But he has only three years of control remaining. Shaw, meanwhile, has five, and has already become a productive regular in his first season and a half in the big leagues. And as good as Thornburg was last year, his ERA was ahead of his peripherals. Projection systems like Steamer and ZiPS see Thornburg coming back to earth somewhat in 2017, and Shaw, a credible regular third baseman who seems capable of average to above-average defense at either corner infield spot, providing greater overall value.

Shaw, it should be noted, faded badly in 2016, batting just .194/.259/.360 in the season’s second half. And at 27 in April, he doesn’t appear to have tremendous upside — one of the better-case scenarios for him is that he becomes merely a very good player, rather than a star. He might, at some point, need to be platooned as well. Also, the value of dominant bullpen arms has rarely been higher than it is now, meaning that even though Thornburg lacks the closer pedigree of the recently traded relievers who have commanded the largest hauls (such as Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel), he should have fetched quite a bit on the trade market.

Even so, it appears there’s decent potential for Shaw alone to outproduce Thornburg right away. And that’s even before considering the rest of what the Brewers received. Dubon is still just 22, can play shortstop, and broke out in Class A+ and Double-A last season. He doesn’t seem likely to hit for much power, but he could post good on-base percentages in the Majors. And while Pennington is a lottery ticket, he’s an interesting one, with a mid- to high-90s fastball and a decent curve. There’s also the player to be named, who hasn’t yet been revealed.

Overview

2017 isn’t likely to be the Brewers’ year, but their future appears promising — in addition to their interesting group of position players at the big-league level, they now boast a strong farm system headed by recent trade acquisitions like Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Dubon, Hader and Ortiz, along with top draft picks like Corey Ray, Trent Clark and Lucas Erceg. The team seemingly has many more good position players than pitchers, although GM David Stearns can address that imbalance on the trade market as he attempts to mold an increasingly interesting collection of talent into the next good Brewers team.

What’s your take on the Brewers’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Brewers' offseason?

B 53.52% (738 votes)

C 24.15% (333 votes)

A 15.08% (208 votes)

D 5.29% (73 votes)

F 1.96% (27 votes)

Total Votes: 1,379

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

‘Lucky Charm’ Jared Porter On Metrics, D-Backs’ 2017 Roster

By brettballantini | March 9, 2017 at 6:34pm CDT

This is the second half of an interview with Diamondbacks assistant GM Jared Porter, conducted by MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini. Click here to read Part 1.

In the second part of the conversation, Porter addresses the intricacies of his job, including his go-to stats, and taking the “macro” view on the Diamondbacks’ future:

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You were with the Cubs when the Diamondbacks traded for Shelby Miller, which from the jump seemed a significant overpay by Arizona. What was your impression?

It’s impossible for me to weigh in heavily due to the fact that I wasn’t here and don’t know all of the circumstances surrounding the trade. With that said, we are really excited to have a pitcher of Shelby Miller’s quality in our rotation. It’s been great getting to know Shelby as a person over the course of the last month or so and has been exciting to watch him feature such explosive stuff in his first two spring outings. He’s in impeccable physical shape and has a great mindset heading into the season. We’re lucky to have Shelby on the Diamondbacks.

Analytics is a rabbit hole that ultimately yields greater and greater understanding of the game. We’re so far from sheer batting average or pitching wins now, we can never go back. But clearly, each front office doesn’t just have a Baseball-Reference stock ticker of WAR numbers that steers evaluation. There are nuances wrapped in projections inside of data. Even among your own equfront office, with a relatively flat hierarchy, each of you must have your own pet data or go-to projections. If you can give me the Shake n’ Bake without revealing its flavor, what is your go-to stat?

Great question. I don’t think I have a “go-to stat,” but what I like the most is the data that helps prove things that are hard for our eyes to see or that can be hard to gauge within a scouting report. Player evaluation is so tough, even for the best evaluators, that any advantages we can find and use are so important.

For me, I’ve really been gravitating towards run prevention data lately. Some examples of this are PITCHf/x data (movement qualities of the pitch), pitch results data (how a pitcher’s stuff impacts the way hitters put balls into play) and pitch sequencing data (how a pitcher uses his pitches); defensive data and defensive positioning data; and catcher defense analysis.

One area that tends to get over-reported is catcher framing. While I’m a firm believer in the value of catcher framing and the impact it makes, the story often stops with catcher framing data and not enough attention is paid to the importance of game-calling and game leadership when it comes to evaluating catchers. A big part of a pitcher’s conviction in the stuff he’s throwing has to do with how the game is called and led behind the plate.

Your most significant trade of the offseason sent Jean Segura to the Seattle Mariners for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Was that a matter of selling high on Segura, buying low on Walker, or a little bit of both?

We’re really excited to have Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte in Diamondbacks uniforms right now. We gave up a very talented and well-rounded impact player in Jean Segura as the centerpiece of the deal for Seattle, but continuing to add young, controllable, high-ceiling players like Taijuan and Ketel will make our talent pool deeper and more sustainable from a macro viewpoint.

Taijuan is a pitcher who all three organizations I’ve worked for have tried to acquire over the last two or three years. Getting to know him a bit over the course of the last month has given us a lot of confidence in the person he is. He wants to be great, and he wants to win. We’re very excited to have such a talented athlete in our program.

You have an exhausting number of responsibilities, overseeing player personnel, baseball operations, and the medical staff. But arguably your more significant responsibility with Arizona is in pro scouting. I’m guessing that amateur scouting—confirming blue chips or uncovering hidden treasure—is significantly different from pro scouting, where we imagine a half-dozen guys with radar guns trying to pick the bones of this summer’s early rebuilders. How do the roles of amateur and pro scouts differ?

The nature of all scouting is the same: Consistently beat other teams by evaluating and recommending talented, championship-caliber players for your organization. The types of scouting that I have the most significant responsibility for within Arizona are professional (other teams’ minor league players, and the independent leagues), major league (other teams’ major league players, and advance scouting), and international professional (typically NPB, KBO, and Cuban players who don’t fall under the amateur cap).

There are a few major differences between amateur and professional scouting that stand out. Every year there is a draft, so it’s a fact that an enormous pool of amateur players will be selected and signed to play professional baseball every June. For this reason, there’s a culminating point in every draft cycle. We don’t have as much information on amateur players. Although the information available is growing at an astonishing rate, there still isn’t as much information available in comparison to professional players. We haven’t had the opportunity to see amateur players compete against their professional peers on a daily basis yet, so the accuracy of evaluations is more volatile and higher risk. It becomes critical to mitigate the risk as much as you can while continuing to maximize the upside and the potential impact of players you’re bringing in.

On the professional and major league side, we have significantly more information, but oftentimes the assets you’re giving up in player or financial capital are so great that it makes the margin for error within these decisions minuscule. Also, the player pool to select from is more finite. Professional scouting is more of an ongoing process with regards to acquisition. Although there are a few big dates, like the Trade Deadline or Winter Meetings, the professional player acquisition period is literally 365 days a year, because a transaction can happen at any time.

Which scouting is a greater challenge, or more fun?

The best way for me to describe it is that it’s all awesome, and it’s all really challenging. You can never learn enough about player evaluation with regards to organizational building and roster construction.

You have inherited a Diamondbacks team that seems a given to put 69 wins in the rearview mirror, with not just superstars like Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, but quite a few budding stars as well. Obviously, you’ve got a long-term vision of remaking the team, but how jazzed are you regarding your immediate, 2017 prospects?

We’re all very excited about the talent on our 40-man roster and certainly feel fortunate to inherit so many talented and athletic players with high ceilings. [Rookie manager] Torey Lovullo has set a great tone in camp, with everyone being part of a unified group headed in the same, positive direction. It’s been a point of emphasis for us this offseason to put a well-rounded, versatile, and deep group of major league players together going into the season. It’s still roughly a month to go before Opening Day, but so far, so good. Personally, I’ve enjoyed getting to know our players better as competitors and people, and am excited to continue to do so.

I asked Dave Stewart this question last year, and for all his intensity and aggressiveness, he surprised me with a muted answer. With specific regard to making an offer to a guy like [ex-Los Angeles Dodger] Greinke, is there any additional incentive beyond what he can do for the Diamondbacks—does taking a valuable player away from a direct rival color your decision-making at all? Or, asked another way, are the battles for wins fought exclusively between the lines, or can a front-office guy steal a couple of wins for the team and contribute the same value as a hitter with a knack for a game-winning RBI?

No, I don’t see it this way at all. It’s our job to help build a sustainable, deep, and well-rounded Diamondbacks team regardless of what other teams in our division are doing. If we do that, it doesn’t matter what other teams are doing because we’ll be able to provide Torey and our coaching staff with the necessary weapons to navigate a 162-game schedule, and hopefully more.

There is some nuance within the season with regards to matchups, maybe stocking your bullpen with a certain type of reliever for a series or two, picking the right time to spot start a guy, or adding a bat that might match up well for a certain stretch. But when it comes to the macro decisions, we have to constantly focus on making our team better and not worry about the others.

Fortunately, this is something I was able to see first-hand in Boston when I was younger due to the incredible depth and talent in the AL East at the time. I never saw Theo give in to any pressures that might have been there to match our division rivals, and I feel that as a result our internal player pool was always deep and sustainable, with great young players ready to make an impact at the major league level.

You were hired by the Red Sox in 2004 and, poof, there goes an 86-year Curse of the Bambino. The Cubs snapped you up in 2016 and, boom, the longest streak in the history of pro sports, 108 years without a title, is gone. Every time you join a new team, they win a World Series. Arizona’s drought of 15 seasons is slightly less dramatic than what you’ve conquered already. So, pressure’s on, are you going to make it three-for-three?

I wish it were that easy. I’ve been fortunate to work around great people and for teams with great players in Boston and Chicago. My hunch tells me that it’s been more about the players than me being a curse breaker! We’ll chalk it up to good timing.

With that said, we have a talented group here in Arizona and we are working daily to create the culture both in the office and in the clubhouse through Torey that we’ve seen lead to sustainable success in Boston and Chicago.

Follow Brett Ballantini on Twitter @PoetryinPros

D-Backs Assistant GM Jared Porter Traces His Path to Arizona

By brettballantini | March 8, 2017 at 6:55pm CDT

A 69-win season spelled an abrupt end for the D-backs front office regime that was led by chief baseball officer Tony La Russa (who remains in the organization in another capacity), general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president De Jon Watson.

Enter new Arizona GM Mike Hazen, who tapped former standout Boston execs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, along with former Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, to remake a franchise that may have lost its way.

We caught up to Porter, Arizona’s senior vice president and assistant GM, in order to get a peek into the changes the Diamondbacks are implementing this season.

But in part one of this interview, Porter traces his remarkable fortune in the game so far, including four championships (three in Boston, one with the Chicago Cubs). Is he a lucky charm? Well, Diamondbacks fans can be heartened that in his first seasons in Boston and Chicago, he helped the clubs snap World Series droughts of 86 and 108 years, respectively:

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Much is made of the Boston roots of Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye, you, and even new manager Torey Lovullo. Given the different roles you all played with the Red Sox, did you conceive of a time when you might all be together again, with commensurate promotions?

I’m very fortunate to have been able to learn from and work with so many talented executives in Boston. It’s one of those things where you don’t realize just how much your career can be shaped by who you work for and learn from early on—and it’s immeasurable.

In my case, I happened to get an internship working with and for the best executive in baseball history, Theo Epstein. The culture that Theo created in Boston (and now in Chicago, with Jed Hoyer) is so unique. I feel like I’ve been part of an incredible and captivating baseball operations think tank ever since I started as an intern with Boston in 2004, with everybody working as hard as they can and trying to learn as much as they can, with the freedom and comfort to express opinions and explore both old and new ways of thought with regards to player evaluation, acquisition, development and analysis. I’m forever grateful to Ben Cherington, for hiring me and giving me my first opportunity.

That think tank culture is certainly something we are going to try as hard as we can to replicate in Arizona. Along with others such as Theo, Jed, Ben, Raquel Ferreira, Brian O’Halloran, Jason McLeod, and Allard Baird, Mike and Amiel were big parts of that culture, with their fingerprints all over Boston’s World Series championships and current roster.

Did you have an inkling that you were valued to such a degree by Mike that he would seek you out in Arizona as he did? When you left Boston after the 2015 season, leaving them behind for a year, was there any sort of exit interview/between the lines/wink-wink where you had a sense you might work together again down the line?

Things never seem to happen in a linear manner when it comes to a career path, so there was never any sort of “wink-wink,” but Mike, Amiel, and myself have always been very close and have always enjoyed working together. With that said, the preexisting relationships I had when I went to the Cubs along with some very strong ones I developed over the year-plus I spent in Chicago made it a very tough place to leave, on both a personal and professional level.

I think the Cubs will be just fine without me, though!

What was your adjustment moving from a Ben Cherington front office in Boston to Theo’s in Chicago? Given the enormous successes both teams have had, there must be a lot of similarities. But is there a single contrast that stands out?

We all worked together for so many years in Boston, making the front offices very similar in style and goals. It was a smooth transition from Boston to Chicago, given the similar styles and scouting/development infrastructures coming from what Theo instilled in all of us in Boston.

The biggest difference between the two front offices is that the Cubs have really pressed forward with regards to analytics and new forms of data analysis, because Theo was able to pick up from he left off in Boston while starting from scratch in Chicago. Data analysis is nonstop for them, with a perfectly designed platform to access all of this information. From minor league coaches, to scouts, to major league coaching staff, the analytics make everyone more efficient and knowledgeable. It’s an area that we have already started, and will continue to press forward with, on the Diamondbacks.

Does Theo give you crap for walking into a 103-win team and cherry picking a ring?

[Laughing] No, he doesn’t. But I give it to myself!

Admittedly, it was great timing for me. I’m really lucky that he and Jed gave me the chance to be a part of winning a World Series with the Cubs. The ring is a nice bonus, but the amount I was able to learn being around those guys again for another year-plus, and being ingrained into the great culture they (along with manager Joe Maddon) have created in Chicago is my biggest takeaway. Theo’s probably given me more crap for cherry picking from the culture, and I don’t blame him. They have a great thing going there.

As long as we’re talking Cubs, can you give me your personal Game 7 experience?

Oh man, what an incredible game and series. [Ex-Cubs pitcher and current team exec] Ryan Dempster said it best on the bus ride from Progressive Field to the airport after the game, something to the effect of, “There’s no way the Cubs were going to win their first World Series in 108 years without some sort of dramatic story within the game.”

And it’s true. The twists and turns throughout the Series and specifically in Game 7 were captivating and gut-wrenching. The Indians were and are a great team; it could have gone either way. I’ve been fortunate to be a part of a few world champions over the years, so the best part for me is seeing players, coaches, front office executives and scouts win one for the first time. To me, that provides an incredible amount of gratitude. It serves as a reminder of how tough it is to be part of a team that wins it, and also how lucky all of us who work in baseball are to be a part of it.

Speaking of breaking 108-year droughts, do you practice any particular superstitions in spite of being an analytics-driven kind of fella?

I don’t want to say too much here—and acknowledging that it’s the players who win games on the field—but we’ll do just about anything in the front office suite during a game to change our luck and try to will the team to get a few runs. Typically it involves a lot of hot dogs, chocolate cake, and even the occasional vegetable crudité and tapenade combo.

Part two of this Q&A, which focuses on Porter’s preferred statistics/metrics for player evaluation, his front-office responsibilities in Arizona and the Diamondbacks’ 2017 roster, will run tomorrow afternoon.

Follow Brett Ballantini on Twitter: @PoetryinPros.

Photo courtesy of Sarah Sachs / Arizona Diamondbacks communications department.

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