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East Notes: Red Sox, Verdugo, Severino, Narvaez, Perez

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The Red Sox issued a positive update regarding the status of right-hander Garrett Whitlock today, with manager Alex Cora (as relayed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith) indicating that he’s poised to begin a minor league rehab assignment next week. Whitlock has been on the 15-day injured list due to a bone bruise in his elbow for just over a month. Meanwhile, both right-hander Tanner Houck and left-hander Chris Sale could also be nearing returns, with Houck expected to make three rehab starts before rejoining the club while Sale will be evaluated tomorrow as he nears a return to the majors.

Whitlock’s return to the Red Sox, according to Cora, could come with a change of role, as the manager indicated there was “a good chance” that Whitlock would be used in a multi-inning relief role rather than as a member of the rotation. That’s a role that has suited Whitlock quite well throughout his career, as he owns a sterling 2.24 ERA in 112 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen, a far more impressive figure than his rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in 19 starts as a member of the rotation.

Even with Whitlock seeming ticketed for the bullpen, the impending returns of Houck and Sale could create a logjam in Boston’s rotation. With the aforementioned trio on the shelf, the club was recently forced to move right-hander Nick Pivetta back into the rotation alongside regular starters James Paxton, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford despite the fact that Pivetta sported a dominant 1.98 ERA in 41 innings coming out of the bullpen since he was removed from the rotation back in May.

With Paxton, Bello, and Sale all likely locked into rotation spots when healthy, the Red Sox will have to pick one of Pivetta, Houck, or Crawford to join Whitlock in the rotation unless the club plans on moving to a six-man rotation upon the return of Sale and Houck to starting action. While Pivetta’s 5.98 ERA coming out of the rotation is the weakest figure of that trio, his 7 1/3 inning, three-run outing in his return to the starting rotation may to have given Red Sox brass renewed confidence in him as a starting option going forward.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, outfielder Alex Verdugo was scratched from today’s lineup shortly before the game started. Following the game, Cora briefly discussed Verdugo’s situation with reporters, including Smith. In his comments, Cora indicated that Verdugo’s absence from the lineup was not injury-related. While neither Cora nor Verdugo commented on the specifics of the situation, Cora stressed that it was “the manager’s decision”, saying: “We need everybody available. I decided the reason that he didn’t play. But he wasn’t available today. He was ready to play but he wasn’t available. … The manager decided not to play him today. And he has his reason. I’m not going to go into details or whatever.” After a hot start to the 2023 campaign, Verdugo has slashed just .157/.245/.277 in 94 trips to the plate since the start of July.
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, that “everything is on the table going forward” regarding right-hander Luis Severino, including a move to the bullpen. Once a rising star in the game as a reliable, front of the rotation arm, Severino has struggled massively in 13 starts this season with a 7.74 ERA and 6.56 FIP. Severino has made fifteen appearances out of the bullpen during his career to excellent results. He’s posted a microscopic 0.31 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings of work as a reliever. If Severino were to exit the rotation, that could open up starts for a younger arm like Jhony Brito or Randy Vasquez.
  • Sticking to New York, Mets catcher Omar Narvaez indicated to Will Sammon of The Athletic that he would “probably be back next season” when discussing his upcoming $7MM player option for 2024. Narvaez opened the season as the club’s starting catcher but suffered a calf strain early in the season. While Narvaez was on the shelf, youngster Francisco Alvarez emerged as the club’s everyday player behind the plate, leaving Narvaez in a part-time role upon his return. In addition to his diminished role, Narvaez has struggled badly at the plate this season, slashing just .189/.281/.245 with a wRC+ of 54 in 24 games this year.
  • The Marlins figure to welcome young right-hander Eury Perez back to the rotation on Monday, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Perez made his last big league start on July 6 before being optioned to the minors in an effort to manage his innings and keep him fresh for the stretch run. Perez’s return figures to be a significant boost to the Marlins rotation, as he impressed with a 2.36 ERA and 3.70 FIP in eleven starts during his first stint in the majors earlier this season. The Marlins currently sport a 58-54 record and are just half a game out of the final NL Wild Card spot. That spot is currently occupied by the Reds, against whom Perez is slated to make his return on Monday.

Red Sox Notes: Bloom, Deadline Plans, First Base, Sale

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A little under three weeks ago, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom wasn’t yet sure how the Red Sox might approach the trade deadline, or whether not the team might lean more towards buying or selling.  Since then, the Sox have been doing their best to force the front office’s hand, winning nine of their last 10 games and moving to a 49-43 record.  The Red Sox are two games out of a wild card berth and, despite a competitive AL East and AL playoff picture in general, it looks like Boston will be some kind of factor in the coming weeks and months leading up to October.

That said, Bloom’s overall perspective about the deadline hasn’t entirely changed, though naturally he is happy with how the Sox have been playing.

“I think the this bigger picture of how we’ve gotten here and how it’s come through a lot of progress from a lot of good performances from our long-term core — whether that’s young players or veteran players — is really encouraging in terms of where the arrow is pointing,” Bloom told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.  “We’re gonna keep that in mind, too.  We feel like we’re making a lot of progress and we just want keep layering on more and more positive things toward that ultimate goal of a championship club.”

Bloom was clear that long-term competitiveness is still the front office’s overarching goal, yet competing this season certainly seems possible.  The CBO noted that the core’s development “has not only given us a chance to stay in this race in 2023, but I think has made us — and hopefully a lot of people who care about this team — really optimistic about where this is headed longer-term….Obviously what happens in the short-term, on some level we’re gonna need to factor that in and be responsive to it.  As long as we keep seeing the things we wanna see from our core guys, that’s obviously something that we’re gonna keep front and center.”

Trade talks have already been ongoing in advance of the August 1 deadline, and Bloom again implied that the Red Sox (like many teams) won’t be clear buyers or sellers.  The Sox could try to make deals that fall into either category, or they “might just be baseball trades that help everybody accomplish what they’re trying to accomplish.”  While the standings could certainly provide more clarity over the next two weeks, there are enough teams at least on the fringes of contention that Bloom feels “the [trade] conversations are just gonna require more creativity.”

While Bloom didn’t cite any areas of need heading into the deadline apart, Bloom did make a point of saying that the Red Sox weren’t looking for first base help, since the team is happy with its tandem of Triston Casas and (when he isn’t at DH or third base) Justin Turner.  It amounts to a vote of confidence in Casas, who has finally started hitting after a lengthy cold streak to begin the season.  Casas hit .184/.300/.342 over his first 180 plate appearances, but has since delivered a much improved .297/.383/.515 slash line in his last 115 PA.

Obviously the Red Sox weren’t going to just give up on a former top prospect who is only in his second MLB season, yet Casas’ recent results have helped solidify his place in Boston’s core, and as a contributor to their 2023 plans.  “Triston is learning and growing.  He’s clearly not a finished product yet, but when you look at the trajectory, he is moving in the right direction here offensively,” Bloom said.

Pitching would also seem to be a target need at the deadline, as while the Red Sox have a lot of injured arms projected to return relatively soon, there isn’t any guarantee that those hurlers will return on schedule, or be effective when they do return.  “Just because you have some of those guys that you expect to be back in action in August doesn’t mean you’re not looking to find other ways to help yourself,” Bloom said.

Chris Sale is one of those injured pitchers on the road to recovery, and manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that Sale is slated for a bullpen session on Tuesday.  Sale suffered a stress reaction in his shoulder blade and will be out until at least the start of August, as per the minimum absence time required by his 60-day IL placement.  Since Sale is only starting to throw off a mound now, it seems likely that his ramp-up and rehab work will keep him out for longer than the first week of August.  Sale also noted two weeks ago that his injury “isn’t a very common issue” for a pitcher, so it may be a while before a solid rehab plan is finalized.

Red Sox Notes: Deadline Spending, Kennedy, Sale, Injury Updates

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The Red Sox have a 41-42 record and are 4.5 games out of a wild card berth as the calendar flips to July, so it remains to be seen whether or not the team is truly a contender for the postseason.  In the opinion of Sox team president/CEO Sam Kennedy, “we definitely believe that this group can string a run together and get us back in this thing,” but Kennedy admitted to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam that “this is obviously not where we want to be.  It’s sort of been a tale of two teams, given the streaky nature of our play….Every time we have a great stretch we seem to then falter and fall down.”

With this in mind, Kennedy said that Boston’s first order of business is just to play some consistent baseball, before considering any next steps.  “No one’s thinking about the trade deadline right now. We’re just thinking about trying to put ourselves in a position where we’re looking to add to this team,” he said.

Kennedy’s comments are similar to those made by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom earlier this week, and Kennedy reiterated that upper management has “no concern” over Bloom’s ability to improve the roster, and that Bloom “will have full authority to do what is in the best interest of the organization, short-term and long-term.”

Bloom’s future with the Red Sox has been a topic of some controversy given the team’s relative lack of results over his three-plus seasons in charge of the front office, and the potential end of his contract.  According to McAdam, Bloom’s deal is thought to last through at least the 2024 season, which would indicate that Bloom received a five-year contract when he was initially hired by the Sox after the 2019 campaign (unless Bloom has since signed an extension).  The Red Sox are 235-232 during Bloom’s tenure, with a trip to the ALCS in 2021 sandwiched between last-place finishes in 2020 and 2022.  The Sox are currently in last place again in the AL East, though with the caveat that the club plays in baseball’s hardest division.

Money is apparently not an issue for ownership, as Kennedy stated that “if we’re in position to add to this team as we approach the deadline, there won’t be any hesitation or reservation about” spending beyond the luxury tax line.  As per Roster Resource, Boston’s luxury tax number is just shy of $221.3MM, and thus under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Of course, while Kennedy didn’t address this possibility, one would imagine that the Sox might look to stay under the threshold if they do indeed fall out of contention over the next few weeks, given how Bloom’s attempts to both buy and sell at last year’s deadline resulted in a roster that finished with both a losing record and a tax bill.

August 1 is not just deadline day, but also the first day that Chris Sale would be eligible to be activated from the 60-day injured list.  Initially played on the 15-day IL on June 2 with right shoulder inflammation, it was soon announced that Sale was suffering from a stress reaction in his shoulder blade, and was facing yet another lengthy IL stint.

The good news is that Sale has been cleared to start throwing, after undergoing another MRI on Thursday.  The plan is for Sale to throw every other day for the time being, with the southpaw throwing from 60 feet but not at max effort.  Beyond these first steps, Sale’s timeline is still largely undetermined.

“This isn’t a very common issue,” Sale told The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey and other reporters.  “We had a couple guys who were reference points from the past, but again how many times am I going to stand up here and say something freak happened?  So obviously, could have been worse, and [I’ve] been through worse.  Just happy for today to be able to start this process and get back to doing what I’m supposed to be doing.”

Red Sox manager Alex Cora also updated reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) on several other injured players.  Yu Chang and Richard Bleier will each start a rehab assignment with Double-A Portland this weekend, while Pablo Reyes’ rehab assignment is slated to begin on Tuesday.  John Schreiber has thrown a pair of bullpen sessions and could be nearing a rehab assignment of his own, once he faces hitters during a live batting-practice session.

Zack Kelly also started a throwing program yesterday, which is particularly notable considering that the right-hander underwent an ulnar nerve transposition revision in his right elbow back in early May.  There was some optimism at the time that Kelly might be able to return before the end of the season, and while there’s much to be done before this becomes a reality, it’s certainly a good sign that Kelly is already throwing in some limited capacity.

Red Sox Transfer Chris Sale To 60-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today, some of which were previously reported, though some were new developments. Outfielder Adam Duvall has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list while left-hander Joe Jacques has had his contract selected. To open two active roster spots, lefty Matt Dermody has been designated for assignment while infielder Enmanuel Valdéz was optioned to Triple-A. To open one more 40-man roster spot, lefty Chris Sale has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Sox informed reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Sale has a stress reaction in his shoulder blade. He won’t require surgery but he will be shut down for three to four weeks before being reevaluated.

Sale, 34, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league but he has been severely held back by injuries in recent years. He averaged over 200 innings per season from 2012 to 2017 but was held to roughly 150 per year in the two following seasons. He made trips to the injured list in 2018 due to shoulder inflammation then dealt with elbow inflammation the following year. He ultimately required Tommy John surgery in March of 2020, causing him to miss that entire season.

He returned late in 2021 and was able to make nine starts that year. It was hoped he would be set for a return to full-time work in 2022 but he dealt with a stress reaction in his ribs that kept him out until July. He was hit by a comebacker in his second start, fracturing a finger. While on the injured list again, he broke his wrist in a bicycle accident that ended his season.

Here in 2023, it was again hoped that he could perhaps return to a regular starting role. That was the case for a while, as he made 11 starts with a 4.58 ERA, but he landed on the injured list again on June 2 due to shoulder inflammation. He’ll now be ineligible to return until August, though even that seems contingent on a bit of luck in the health department. The aforementioned shutdown period will keep him out of action for most of the rest of June. Even if he’s healthy after that, he’ll need most of July to build back up and go on a rehab assignment.

In the short term, the Red Sox will be figuring out how to proceed without Sale. They have recently been running out a group with veteran James Paxton alongside younger pitchers like Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, while struggles from Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta got both of those guys pushed into the bullpen.

In the long-term, the Sox will have to wonder what they can expect from Sale going forward. He is playing this year on a salary of $27.5MM and will make that same figure next year as part of the extension he and the club signed going into 2019. There’s also a $20MM club option for 2025 with no buyout. Due to his carousel of injuries, he’s pitched just over 100 innings since the end of the 2019 campaign.

Red Sox Place Chris Sale On Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

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The Red Sox have placed starter Chris Sale on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Corey Kluber was reinstated from the paternity list to take the active roster spot.

Sale left last night’s start in the fourth inning as his velocity was dropping. The Sox announced afterwards that he’d head for imaging. Sale addressed the Boston beat this evening, saying it’ll be around a week before he receives an official diagnosis (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). He said he doesn’t believe he’ll require surgery but it looks unlikely he’ll be back when first eligible a couple weeks from now.

Injuries have become unfortunately familiar for Sale over the past few years. One of the sport’s most durable arms between 2012-18, he’s battled health concerns since entering his 30s. He lost all of 2020 and most of ’21 to Tommy John surgery. Sale’s 2022 campaign was marred by a number of issues. He lost the first half of the year to a stress reaction in his ribs. Two starts into his return, he fractured a finger on his throwing hand when he was struck by a comebacker. Sale’s season officially ended in August when he broke his wrist in a bicycle accident.

This year’s 59 innings are already the most he’s logged since 2019. The seven-time All-Star has a middling 4.58 ERA through 11 starts. His underlying numbers are quite a bit better. Sale has punched out 28.5% of opponents and kept his walk rate to a tidy 6%. He’d had the results to match in May, posting a 2.42 ERA while holding batters to a .183/.224/.355 line in 26 frames.

Boston will have to proceed without arguably their best starter for at least two weeks. The Sox have run with Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton alongside Sale in the rotation. Kluber and Nick Pivetta each recently moved from the starting five to the bullpen. One of that duo — presumably Kluber, the more recent of the two to slide to relief — is likely to step back into the rotation.

Red Sox Move Corey Kluber To Bullpen

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The Red Sox are moving struggling veteran Corey Kluber from the starting rotation to the bullpen, manager Alex Cora told hosts Andy Gresh and Christian Fauria in a radio appearance on WEEI this afternoon (Twitter link). They’ll move back to a five-man rotation consisting of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello for the time being.

Kluber hasn’t made an appearance out of the bullpen since 2013. The 37-year-old signed a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $10MM this offseason, with the hope that he’d provide some stable innings to a group that was teeming with injury risk (Sale, Paxton) and young starters who’ll be on innings limits due to lighter workloads in 2022 (Whitlock, Houck). Things haven’t played out that way at all, however.

Through his first nine starts with Boston, Kluber has been tattooed for a 6.26 ERA. His 88.6 mph average fastball is the lowest of his career, and he’s also sporting career-worst marks in strikeout rate (17.7%), walk rate (9.4%) and HR/9 (2.38). He has just one quality start on the year and has only twice recorded an out in the sixth inning. On average, Kluber’s starts have lasted 4 2/3 frames.

Kluber becomes the second member of the Opening Day rotation to slide into a relief role. The performances from Houck and Bello have also displaced Nick Pivetta, who has started more Red Sox games than any pitcher dating back to 2021 and led the team in innings pitched last season.

Houck, 26, has had some rough starts, though the resulting 4.99 ERA is still superior to what Kluber has managed so far. Houck’s most recent outing — six innings, one run, three hits, two walks, eight punchouts — in particular seemed to cement the decision to move Kluber to a relief role. Overall, while Houck’s ERA is only south of 5.00 by the literal narrowest of margins, he’s shown roughly league-average strikeout and walk rates with a strong 51.8% ground-ball rate and a quality 0.92 HR/9 mark. Houck has struggled with men on base, leading to a well below average 61.8% strand rate, but there are plenty of positives in his overall performance.

Bello, 24, has made seven starts and logged a 4.08 ERA through 35 1/3 frames. He’s been slightly better than average in terms of strikeout and walk rate (23.6% and 7.6%, respectively), and his massive 59% ground-ball rate is among the league’s best. Bello has run into problems with the long ball, serving up homers at nearly double the rate of Houck (1.78 HR/9). He’s managed to strand a whopping 81% of his opponents, which will be tough to maintain, but if he can scale back the frequency of his home runs, the strikeout/walk/ground-ball trifecta should allow him to continue finding success.

It should of course be noted that the move to the bullpen for Kluber isn’t necessarily permanent — nor is Pivetta’s shift to a similar role. Both Sale and especially Paxton remain injury risks, and the Sox likely still want to keep an eye on the innings totals of Whitlock (82 1/3 innings in 2022) and Houck (60 innings). As such, it’s quite likely that there will be additional opportunities in the rotation as the season wears on, though whether it’s Pivetta, Kluber, someone from the farm system or an external addition who’s making those appearances will be dependent on how Kluber and Pivetta perform in relief and whether they remain stretched out in multi-inning roles.

The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

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At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

_____

As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

AL East Notes: Guerrero, Sale, Rays

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays “haven’t had the conversations yet” this winter about a multi-year extension, the slugger tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters.  Guerrero didn’t sound overly concerned about the lack of talks, saying “I’m going to stay focused on working hard and let my team take care of that.”  The idea of a long-term deal between Guerrero and the Jays has been a topic essentially since Guerrero arrived in the majors as baseball’s top prospect, and though the first baseman is heading into his fifth MLB season, the clock isn’t yet ticking too loudly on Guerrero’s team control.  Toronto still has arbitration control over Guerrero through the 2025 season, and the two sides already worked out a contract for Guerrero for 2023, as he’ll earn $14.5MM for the coming year.

With Guerrero set to become a free agent prior to his age-27 season, this relatively early entry into the market likely means a particularly large payday is awaiting the first baseman — whether from another team, or in the form of an extension from the Blue Jays to lock Guerrero up as the face of the franchise.  As Davidi notes, the massive longer-term contracts handed out this winter undoubtedly caught the attention of both the Jays and Guerrero’s representatives, and now both sides may have a better view of what it might cost the Blue Jays to retain Guerrero’s services.  Since most extension talks usually don’t begin until deeper into Spring Training, it will be interesting to watch if Guerrero and the Jays have any substantive negotiations, or if any real progress is made towards an extension.

More from the AL East…

  • After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019.  Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior.  Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get.  I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for.  I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.”  Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season.  “That’s not going on the odometer.  I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape.  My arm’s feeling good.  I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”
  • Seven Rays players are slated for arbitration hearings, which is (as per MLB.com) is the third-highest number of hearings for any team in the history of the arb process.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander felt the lack of agreement in negotiations with the seven prior to the arbitration filing deadline were “much more about the uniqueness of several players’ career paths leading to a bit of a more challenging experience for both parties to find common ground,” the executive told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  “But I very much believe that everyone worked to find it — we just didn’t quite get there.”  As Topkin notes, the differences between the Rays’ submitted salary figures and the seven players’ figures work out to only $2.85MM in total.  That said, it doesn’t seem likely that any deals will be worked out before the sides present their cases to an arbiter, unless a player signs a multi-year contract.  [RELATED: the full list of the 33 players who are heading for arbitration hearings]
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