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Arbitration Breakdown: Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available, for those interested.

Marcell Ozuna | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Before Marcell Ozuna reports for his first Spring Training as a Cardinal, he will have to start the potentially uncomfortable process of salary arbitration with them. Ozuna has quite a resume to boast, which is part of what made him so attractive to the Cardinals in the first place. He hit .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs last year, giving him few comparables among second-time arbitration-eligible players.

My model projects a substantial raise for him of $7.4MM — all the way to a $10.9MM salary. This may be high, given the lack of exact historical comparables and the potential for an arbitration process to discount some of the home runs hit in a very high league home run environment (2017 set a record). That said, it still suggests that Ozuna is going to get a large raise anyway.

Jose Abreu | Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Abreu had a comparable season, and his projection is accordingly similar. He hit .304 with 33 homers and 102 RBIs, making the primary difference in their cases the lower RBI total for Abreu. The White Sox slugger is projected for a $7.1MM raise instead of Ozuna’s $7.4MM, but he starts from a higher base salary and is therefore projected to land at $17.9MM.

No other players in the past five years have entered arbitration with the elusive .300/30/100 slash line. However, several players did so in the prior five years, including Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 (.321/32/105), Josh Hamilton in 2011 (.359/32/100), Matt Holliday in 2008 (.340/36/137) and Miguel Cabrera in 2008 (.320/34/119). Those players got raises between $5.65MM (Ellsbury) and $3.9MM (Cabrera), although both Hamilton and Holliday got raises above $5MM, thus making Cabrera the exception.

It seems quite likely that Ellsbury, with 39 stolen bases to Ozuna’s one stolen base, would have a better case. However, the fact that Ellsbury’s case is six years old could put them closer together and could even put Ozuna and Abreu ahead. One thing that is important to note is that only Ellsbury got a one-year deal. The other raises mentioned above are part of multi-year deals, which are usually not very applicable in arbitration cases (although they could be in this scenario with few comparables).

If we look for a player more recent, we might consider Manny Machado last year at .294/37/96. He got a $6.5MM raise and clearly looks like a relevant player. The home run environment difference in just one year is pretty limited as well.

The record raise for a second-time eligible hitter belongs to Chris Davis, who got a $7.05MM raise after his .286/53/138 campaign in 2014. That would probably compare favorably to Ozuna’s numbers because of the home run difference, but the four years’ lag could render that number stale and push Ozuna and Abreu above him after all, as the model predicts. However, I think it may serve as a ceiling, leaving Ozuna and Abreu south of theor projections and slightly south of Davis.

Charlie Blackmon hit .324/29/104 last season, but did so in Coors Field, so he might be seen as less impressive than Ozuna and Abreu. His $3.8MM raise is probably a floor, and perhaps not that close of one.

I think it may be more likely that Ozuna and Abreu both get raises somewhere around $6MM. The triad of players with .300/30/100 slash lines and raises over $5MM back in 2008-12 are probably floors, whereas Davis’ raise seems like a ceiling. If that proves true, Ozuna might end up around $10MM instead of closer to $11MM, and Abreu might end up closer to $17MM than $18MM.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Records: Mid-Arbitration

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With extension season upon us, we are looking at some of the current record-holding contracts. Last week, we broke down the most notable extensions for pre-arbitration players. Now, we’ll turn to those players who reached agreements at a point at which they were eligible for arbitration but before they were within their final season before free agency.

(So, we’ll include Super Two-eligible players in this post. But we won’t yet be looking at those 5+ service-class players who signed as the open market beckoned.)

Typically, a fair number of significant players sign long-term pacts in the period between the start of a new year and the start of a new season. This time last year, we were within a week or so of learning of mid-arb deals for players including Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Kole Calhoun. Many of this season’s arbitration-eligible players also feature as plausible candidates.

Of course, the need to hammer out an arbitration salary for the coming campaign often helps spur talks. This time around, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports, it seems that all of MLB’s teams will be utilizing a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration, which could further incentivize multi-year deals — though not necessarily ones that buy out would-be free agent seasons.

On to the most notable deals from the Super Two, 3+, and 4+ service groups …

Biggest Contract, Super Two

Buster Posey, Giants: 8 years, $159MM (plus one option)

This particular contract stands out from the crowd quite a bit. It dwarfs the other large Super Two deal, such as those agreed to by Starlin Castro ($60MM), Jay Bruce ($51MM), and (most recently) Kevin Kiermaier ($53.5MM). Indeed, it tops anything agreed to by players in their 3+ service class as well (see below). And the Posey deal also represents the second-largest deal of any kind ever agreed to by a catcher. There’s a reason for all that, of course: Posey was and is a once-in-a-generation talent at his position. His suitably monstrous deal, then, functions as a notable market marker for any truly elite players engaging in contract talks early in their arbitration eligibility.

Biggest Contract, Super Two Pitcher

Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 5 years, $42MM (plus two options)

As we saw with the pre-arb extensions, there’s a big gap between what top position players have been able to command and what’s available for pitchers. Teams just have not been willing to promise that much money through arbitration eligibility, even if it means picking up affordable future control. The other top contract in this service class is Jaime Garcia, at a $27.5MM guarantee. Still, as the Nats’ experience with Gonzalez shows, there’s quite some upside to be found even when a team does plunk down a relatively significant promise; he has delivered excellent value over the deal and has had both his options exercised.

Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class

Freddie Freeman, Braves: 8 years, $135MM

While Freeman couldn’t top Posey, this was still a notable contract. The first baseman was certainly an accomplished hitter, but wasn’t a tremendous power source and was considered limited to first base. Of course, the Atlanta organization was right to trust in Freeman, as he has turned in a 157 OPS+ in each of the past two seasons while showing 30+ home run pop (as well as the ability to play third in a pinch, though we’ve likely seen the end of that experiment). This deal topped the second extension of Ryan Braun ($105MM) as well as large contracts agreed upon with 3+ service class players Kyle Seager ($100MM), Albert Pujols ($100MM back in 2004) Wil Myers ($83MM), and Justin Morneau ($80MM).

Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class Pitcher

Carlos Martinez, Cardinals: 5 years, $51MM (plus two options)

It seems fair to say that Martinez had established a similar level of productivity as had Freeman to the same points in their career. But his own record-setting deal came in way shy despite the fact that he was only entering his age-25 season. Still, Martinez handily out-earned prior pitchers from this service grouping, such as Ervin Santana (link), Scott Kazmir (link), and Johnny Cueto (link).

Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class

Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325MM (plus opt-out)

The Stanton deal remains the biggest and longest contract yet agreed to by a MLB player, so it more or less sets all the records. The 4+ stage is a popular time to lock up established superstars, but it typically takes a hefty sum to get it done. Ten-year commitments have gone to Joey Votto ($225MM) and Troy Tulowitzki ($157.75MM). Other nine-figure guarantees include the first Miguel Cabrera extension ($152.3MM), the ill-fated Ryan Howard pact ($125MM), and the roller-coaster Elvis Andrus deal ($120MM). Evan Longoria’s $100MM second extension was just traded, with the Rays taking a bit of a haircut but also receiving some talent in return.

Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 5 years, $80MM

Verlander and Felix Hernandez ($78MM) set the bar for mid-arbitration pitchers. The highly accomplished duo performed well enough in the early going under these contracts that each ultimately inked similar, yet more significant extensions. Both have had their stumbles since their newer contracts kicked in, though the former has mostly been in excellent form of late and the latter is at least still fairly youthful (he’ll turn 32 at the beginning of the 2018 season, whereas Verlander is soon to hit his 35th birthday). The only other player in shouting distance is Matt Harrison, whose $55MM deal did not pan out due to a serious back injury. A variety of other 4+ pitchers have inked deals within $5MM or so of a $40MM guarantee, including Dan Haren (link), Josh Johnson (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Chad Billingsley (link). As the names listed here would indicate, it has been quite a while since we’ve seen a significant contract for a 4+ hurler.

Biggest Contract, Mid-Arb Reliever

Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 4 years, $42MM (plus one option)

Kimbrel has long been a super-elite reliever. Indeed, his raw numbers were so impressive that they busted MLBTR’s arbitration model. With some real questions as to just how much Kimbrel might earn in arbitration, the sides agreed to an interesting contract that was utterly without precedent. To that point the biggest reliever extensions of any kind were in the $20MM range (Huston Street (link) and Carlos Marmol (link)). Nothing has approached Kimbrel’s extension since, though ensuing growth in the free agent market for top-end relievers has certainly changed the situation. Indeed, this contract has been traded twice for good value, showing that the Braves did well for taking a risk that no other organization really had before. (Things worked out well for Kimbrel, too: he weathered some relatively lesser seasons without worrying about security and is now poised to hit free agency at 30 years of age, where he might still set new records.)

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard The OFFseason

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It’s 7:19am on Monday January 8th, 2018.  Wow, hard to believe it’s 2018!  I mean, my whole life I’ve been under the impression that I would have a flying car by now!  Televison, movies, 80’s toys, and my imagination have all fueled my expectations of having a car that can take off and fly through the air.  Soooo if you’re a scientistic aero-engineer person reading this brilliantly well written article right now… FIGURE IT OUT ALREADY!  Anyway, my name is Tim Dillard.  For the last 15 seasons I have been a pitcher in professional baseball.  Mostly in the Minor Leagues, but I did strike out new Yankees skipper Aaron Boone in the big leagues 10 years ago.  And because of my HIGHLY ordinary career… MLB Trade Rumors has declared me worthy enough to write words down for you to read.

7:23am  And in case you haven’t heard, and judging by the lack of views and comments you haven’t… this is my TENTH time writing my Inner Monologue!  I’m typing this particular morning because after several weeks of winter break, my children are finally going back to school! (THANK GOD!)  Except for my two year-old.  He’ll wake up in exactly 35 minutes… his unfathomable internal clock is exceeded only by his ability to Spider-Man up the side of his crib.

7:25am  The offseason winter break is almost over as well, and then it’s spring training.  Currently I’m signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for my 16th season.  And every week the entire winter, a member of the training staff will text me to see how my workouts are progressing.  Which is great, because when I first started playing professional baseball I didn’t have a cellular phone… so they would have to call me up on my parent’s cordful house phone.  One time my dad woke me up after lunch to tell me that my trainer was on hold.  Things have changed, because yesterday, when asked about workouts, I messaged back that I was wrestling with my kids.

7:29am  But much like other veteran ballplayers after being gone for seven months, the offseason is all about family.  And really just getting back to the simple things in life like eating dinners together, vacations, Little League games, birthday parties, visiting friends, school programs, soccer matches, Lego building, Googling third grade math questions, gymnastics class, basketball, performing on stage at Premios Univision Deportes… you know, the normal stuff.

7:32am  My typical offseason day consists of:  Wake up, bake the Eggo’s, pack the school lunches, drink the coffee, drink more of the coffee, and then work out or find some house work to do unil the bus drops the kids off.  In fact, the day I got home from the regular season last year… I walked in and changed nine lightbulbs.  To me, that perfectly sums up the offseason lifestyle.

7:34am  Who am I kidding?  The first thing I do when I wake up is check Twitter… and yes I do hate myself for it.  But after that, I do some of that other stuff I listed.  Last week I woke up to a tweet from Major League Baseball that featured a video of a player exercising, and they hash-tagged it #NoOffseason.  Actually, they tweet the #NoOffseason hashtag quite a bit… during the offseason.

7:38am  Hold on… the newest kid may have awoken?

7:41am  Never mind.  That was an Amazon delivery person. (paper towels)  You ever find yourself just buying crap in hopes that one day you’ll get an Amazon drone visit?!?  Yeah me neither.

7:42am  As of now the child is still asleep, but I must stay on alert.  Because last week he snuck out of bed, silently scaled the cabinets, and snagged some old baseball cards off a book shelf.  And rather than recognize my child’s immediate danger or applaud his impeccable balance… I got caught up reading the backs of the baseball cards just like I did growing up!

7:44am  I would like to say, that before Al Gore’s internet, the back of a baseball card was the BEST way to find fun facts and hobbies of my favorite players.

7:45am  Like… according to one of my cards of Ricky Henderson, he enjoys swimming and fishing.  A 1991 Score card states that Ken Griffey Jr. played 3 years of football, and 4 years of baseball in high school.  This Robin Yount card tells me that he wants to be a pro golfer and race motorcycles one day.  A 1987 Barry Bonds card says he majored in Criminal Justice at Arizona State.  Who knew?!  And also in 1987, Topps informs us that pitcher Sid Fernandez wears uniform #50 for two reasons.  One, his native home of Hawaii is the 50th U.S. state, and second, his favorite tv show is Hawaii Five-O.

7:51am  Next offseason… I want the, “Writing Cool Facts on the Back of Baseball Cards” job!  (I bet that could also get me a lifetime supply of that pink rectangle gum included in old baseball card packs that disintegrated immediately after touching saliva)

7:52am  In all seriousness though, most Minor Leaguers get jobs in the offseason.  The BIG bucks are in the BIG leagues, and that only leaves the small bucks for the minor leagues.  A few years ago I played winter ball down in Venezuela.  One year I worked at a leather factory where I would measure, fold, and ship giant cowhides. (I also operated a forklift without a license)  Another offseason I worked landscaping after I got turned down at the local sporting goods store for lack of experience.

7:55am  One of the highlights of spring training is hearing about where teammates worked during the offseason.  Over my career I’ve heard:  hitting lessons, pitching lessons, baseball camps, bartender, waiter, barber, UPS driver, golf course attendant, Lowe’s clerk, roof shingler, Office Max clerk, landscape “engineer”, Lululemon sales associate, and one very special shortstop who was once in charge of putting stickers on fruit.

7:58am  But right now it’s January, and every non-MLB-contract ballplayer is slightly paranoid about being ready to compete for a job in the coming spring training.

7:59am  And speaking of paranoia… I think I hear “Eggo.” echoing down the hallway.

To Be Concluded…

Taking Inventory: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The 2017 season was the second straight sub-.500 showing by the Pirates, who finished 75-87 and continued to distance themselves from a 2013-15 stretch in which they made the playoffs three straight times. It has now been three-plus months since the Pirates last took the field, though it’s not yet clear which direction they’ll take heading into 2018. While owner Bob Nutting would like to both buy and sell this winter, the Pirates have neither acquired any established major leaguers nor traded any away during what has been a plodding offseason across the majors. With spring training set to commence next month, action figures to pick up soon in Pittsburgh and other big league cities. If the Pirates do indeed sell players in the coming weeks, they have at least a few who would garner respectable returns, as evidenced below…

One-Year Rentals

Andrew McCutchen, OF ($14.5MM): Getting rid of McCutchen would be agonizing for the Pirates, who have seen the center fielder develop into a star and a beloved figure in their city since drafting him in 2005. Nevertheless, considering the Pirates have taken inquiries for him this winter a year after nearly trading him, it’s quite possible he has played his last game with the club. Given that he’s entering his last year of team control, McCutchen’s value now is likely higher than it’s going to be during the season. And the 31-year-old helped his stock in 2017 by hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 plate appearances, thus rebounding from a mediocre 2016 at the plate.

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While McCutchen isn’t any kind of a defensive asset at this point, his bat still carries plenty of value, which has led to interest from the Mets and Giants. Getting McCutchen’s money off the books would appeal to the low-payroll Pirates, but that alone wouldn’t suffice – unsurprisingly, they also want a legitimate return for their longtime franchise face.

Jordy Mercer, SS ($6.5MM projected arbitration salary): The Pirates are reportedly content to keep the 31-year-old Mercer, who likely wouldn’t bring back much in a trade anyway. Mercer’s a lifetime .256/.316/.383 hitter who has only drawn up-and-down reviews from advanced defensive metrics since he became a regular in 2013.

Sean Rodriguez, UTIL ($5.75MM): Rodriguez was part of an August 2017 trade with the Braves in which he returned to the Pirates for struggling first base/outfield prospect Connor Joe. If Rodriguez’s value was low then, it’s in an even worse state now, given that he closed the season by hitting .168/.255/.274 in 106 PAs in Pittsburgh. Between the Braves and Pirates, Rodriguez batted an ugly .167/.276/.295 and struck out in 37.3 percent of PAs. In fairness to Rodriguez, it’s worth noting that an offseason car crash and the shoulder surgery he underwent thereafter likely played a part in his forgettable year.

Daniel Hudson, RHRP ($5.5MM): The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t produce to the level the Pirates hoped when they signed him as a free agent last winter, as he logged a 4.38 ERA with 9.63 K/9 and 4.82 BB/9 across 61 2/3 innings. More than half the league showed interest in Hudson in the weeks before he joined the Pirates, though, and that was off a season in Arizona that came with some rough patches. So, perhaps Hudson would be able to bring back something of a worth in a trade in the wake of last year’s unspectacular output.

Two Years Of Control

Francisco Cervelli, C ($22MM through 2019): Cervelli was a revelation for the Pirates in 2015, leading them to extend him the next year, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective recently. Injuries helped limit Cervelli to 182 games during the previous two seasons, including 81 in 2017. While Cervelli, 31, slashed a respectable .249/.342/.370 in 304 trips to the plate to continue a solid offensive career as a Buc, the excellent pitch framing he showed off in prior years was not on display. Now, considering Cervelli’s price tag, injury issues, 2017 defensive drop-off and the lack of contenders looking for a starting catcher, this doesn’t seem like the ideal time to move him. Interestingly, though, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggested that there were some trade rumors about Cervelli during the Winter Meetings last month.

Ivan Nova, RHP ($17MM through 2019): The unexpected success Nova experienced as a Pirate in late 2016 after coming over in a trade with the Yankees didn’t quite transfer last year. Still, in the first season of a three-year, $26MM deal, Nova ate innings (187) and posted a playable 4.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate. On one hand, you’d expect plenty of teams in need of a capable back-end starter to have interest in the reasonably priced 30-year-old if the Pirates shop him. On the other, we were among many around the game to overestimate his market when he was a free agent in a weak class of starters a winter ago.

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Gerrit Cole, RHP ($7.5MM projected salary): As a Scott Boras client whose team control is running out, it seems to be a matter of when – not if – the Pirates trade Cole. The 27-year-old fireballer has drawn widespread interest this offseason from teams seeking a mid-/front-of-the-rotation starter. The Yankees, Cubs and Twins are among many clubs that have inquired about Cole, who’d very likely bring back an impressive haul in a deal.

David Freese, 3B/1B ($4.25MM in 2018 and either a $6MM club option or a $500K buyout in 2019): There hasn’t been much trade buzz this offseason regarding Freese, who may lose playing time in Pittsburgh in 2018. The soon-to-be 35-year-old offered unexciting production for the fifth straight year in 2017, when he hit .263/.368/.371 in 503 PAs, though a roughly average player on an affordable salary shouldn’t be seen as valueless.

George Kontos, RHRP ($2.7MM projected salary): There doesn’t seem to be much value here – the Giants gave Kontos to the Pirates for nothing last August, after all – yet the 32-year-old has held his own in the majors. Kontos’ ERA ranged from 2.33 to 3.39 from 2014-17, and he has typically limited free passes in his career (2.62 BB/9). Further, while Kontos was a below-average strikeout pitcher in past seasons, he did register a career-high 9.5 K/9 and a personal-best 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2017. He also recorded a .269 xwOBA against, beating out newly minted $52MM man Wade Davis (.289), among others.

Longer-Term Assets

Gregory Polanco, OF (controllable through 2023 for $54MM): Hamstring injuries helped limit Polanco to 108 games and just 0.5 fWAR in 411 PAs last season, when he batted a meager .251/.305/.391. While the 26-year-old has never been an offensive dynamo, his baserunning, defense and contract have combined to make him a valuable player. Barring a shocking trade, he’ll attempt to bounce back in Pittsburgh next season.

Starling Marte, OF (controllable through 2021 for $41.5MM): Marte was among the most valuable assets in the sport from 2013-16, when he hit, ran and defended his way to 16.4 fWAR, but the shine came off to a degree last season. Not only did Marte sit 80 games on account of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but he wasn’t any kind of force during the 77 contests in which he did appear. The 29-year-old hit a career-low .275/.333/.379 and experienced a dramatic decline in the power department, which has never been a major strength for him anyway. Like Polanco, though, there’s nothing to suggest the Pirates are interested in moving Marte or his still-appealing contract.

Josh Harrison, UTIL ($10MM salary in 2018 and club options totaling $22MM from 2019-20): As with McCutchen and Cole, Harrison has been a popular name in rumors this winter. Perhaps the Pirates should part with the 30-year-old Harrison now, given his recent inconsistency. Harrison broke out in 2014, but he followed that up with subpar showings from 2015-16 before rebounding to enjoy a quality season last year. The Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays are a few clubs that have pursued the infielder/outfielder this winter.

Felipe Rivero ($3.1MM projected salary; controllable through 2021): As an elite, flamethrowing reliever who’s under wraps for the foreseeable future, the left-handed Rivero is clearly one of the most valuable players in the Pittsburgh organization. The 26-year-old is now coming off the best full season of his career, during which he tossed 75 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball and notched 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 52.9 percent grounder rate. Rivero also converted 21 of 23 save chances, and if he remains in the ninth inning for the Pirates, it’s only going to drive up his price in arbitration. There is a case to be made that the Pirates should shop Rivero now when his value’s at its zenith, especially if they don’t expect to compete in 2018, though it seems highly unlikely to happen.

While Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams and Tyler Glasnow are among other Pirates with trade value, there’s no reason to expect the team to market any of those pre-arb players.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the past week’s worth of original content from the MLBTR writing team…

Checking In On Last Year’s National League Playoff Teams

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Earlier this week, we checked in on how last year’s five American League playoff qualifiers have addressed their rosters since this still-quiet offseason began in November. We’ll follow up today with the National League, starting with the reigning pennant winners…

Los Angeles Dodgers (2017 record: 104-58; current FanGraphs projection for 2018: 94-68): The Dodgers’ financial clout hasn’t been on display this winter, owing to a desire to get under the $197MM competitive balance tax figure in 2018. Los Angeles helped its cause in that regard last month by dumping the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy on the Braves and only getting back old friend Matt Kemp, whom the team seems likely to flip elsewhere or release prior to the season.

Aside from a household name in Kemp, whose best days are long gone, the newest Dodgers may not be all that familiar to casual fans. Their only major league signing, former back-end Marlins starter Tom Koehler, took a $2MM guarantee to work as a reliever in 2018. There’s optimism Koehler will thrive in that role, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan highlighted last month. On the other hand, southpaw Scott Alexander has already demonstrated excellence as a major league reliever, and the Dodgers acquired the groundball machine from the Royals this week in a deal that saw them part with fellow lefty Luis Avilan. LA’s hope is that Koehler and Alexander will ably step in for Avilan, 2017 standout Brandon Morrow – who joined the Cubs in free agency – and the still-unsigned Tony Watson.

Speaking of unsigned players, high-end starter Yu Darvish remains without a contract two months after the market opened. Two disastrous World Series starts notwithstanding, Darvish was mostly outstanding as a Dodger after they acquired him from the Rangers at last July’s trade deadline. While the Dodgers have discussed a reunion with Darvish this offseason, it’s hard to picture it coming to fruition when considering their wariness toward the tax and the expensive pact he’s sure to secure.

Generally, Dodgers president Andrew Friedman has been hesitant to hand out large contracts – a key reason the team was only on the periphery in the sweepstakes for the extremely costly Giancarlo Stanton, despite reports that he’d have preferred to play in his hometown of LA. As such, any splashy pickups may be more likely to come via trade than free agency. The Dodgers, in fact, tried to swing a deal for Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. earlier this offseason. That trade would’ve cost the Dodgers Yasiel Puig, but the Red Sox were uninterested in making the move.

Washington Nationals (2017 record: 97-65; current projection for 2018: 91-71): Fortunately for the Nationals, they haven’t and won’t lose any integral contributors from last year’s team to the open market. Nevertheless, Washington has been active in the rumor mill lately, with catching, pitching and outfield upgrades on the club’s radar.

Entering what could be the final season of the Bryce Harper era in D.C., reports have connected the Nationals to the likes of J.T. Realmuto, Alex Avila, Jake Arrieta, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Greg Holland and Christian Yelich in recent weeks. Adding Realmuto, Avila or Jonathan Lucroy would be especially beneficial for a team that received the worst behind-the-plate production in the majors last season. The Nationals thought they found their solution at catcher a year ago when they signed Matt Wieters, but the Scott Boras client hasn’t been effective over a full season since 2013. Although Wieters is guaranteed $10.5MM in 2018, Washington would be hard-pressed to count on him again as a regular.

Just as he did last year with Wieters, there’s speculation that Boras could end up talking Nationals ownership into taking on one of his high-profile free agents this winter. Boras has a longstanding relationship with the franchise, and inking any of Arrieta, Holland or outfielder J.D. Martinez to big-money pacts would address areas the Nats have been looking at this winter. To this point, their free agent signings have been modest – they re-upped reliever Brandon Kintzler and brought in reserve first baseman Matt Adams.

Chicago Cubs (2017 record: 92-70; current projection for 2018: 92-70): Free agency has been a mixed bag for the Cubs, who have been aggressive in adding players as others have reached the market. Arrieta is still out there, as mentioned, though the Cubs lost 2017 closer Wade Davis to the Rockies. For now, they’re slated to replace Davis with Morrow, who, for what it’s worth (maybe nothing), doesn’t come with the “proven closer” tag. Morrow is one of five pitchers the Cubs have inked to big league deals this offseason, joining two other relievers (Steve Cishek and Dario Alvarez) and a pair of starters (Tyler Chatwood and Drew Smyly, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery).

Tyler Chatwood | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

While president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have been busy, they’re definitely not done upgrading their team’s pitching staff. Whether it’s a rumored possibility – Arrieta, Darvish, Archer, Alex Cobb, Gerrit Cole or Danny Duffy – or an off-the-radar name, the Cubs will add another starter to round out a rotation that currently includes Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood.

Additionally, Chicago could make a splash in the position player market, as reports have linked them to Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Orioles infielder Manny Machado,. A left side alignment of Kris Bryant at third base and Machado at short would be transcendent, but the latter’s only under control for another year. Consequently, teams have been reluctant to meet the O’s lofty asking price for Machado. In the event the Cubs do reel in Machado, it’s unclear what it would mean for starting middle infielders Addison Russell and Javier Baez, who are under wraps for the foreseeable future. Notably, the Cubs dangled Baez in talks with the Padres at last month’s Winter Meetings.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2017 record: 93-69; current projection for 2018: 84-78): On the heels of a surprisingly great season, the Diamondbacks apparently aren’t in financial position to do anything significant in free agency. While ace Zack Greinke is occupying a massive chunk of payroll and has drawn some trade interest this winter, the 34-year-old’s contract makes a deal a long shot. Greinke’s presence, while highly beneficial in 2017, is one reason J.D. Martinez is likely to sign elsewhere after an incredible second-half run with the D-backs last season.

Meanwhile, 2017 closer Fernando Rodney (Twins) and catcher Chris Iannetta (Rockies) have already left, though they obviously aren’t nearly as important as Martinez. The Diamondbacks may attempt to replace Rodney in the ninth inning with either of their two new bullpen pickups, Brad Boxberger or Yoshihisa Hirano. Boxberger, whom they grabbed in a trade with the Rays, has been an effective major league reliever (including a stint as a closer), but injuries have beset him lately. Hirano was a great closer in Japan before immigrating to Arizona last month for a guaranteed $6MM.

To this point, Boxberger and Hirano stand as the Diamondbacks’ only noteworthy additions, but GM Mike Hazen expects more moves to occur. Trading starter Patrick Corbin and his projected $8.3MM salary is reportedly a possibility, and clearing his salary would enable the D-backs to address other areas either through trades or free agency. They’ve aimed high on the trade front, having been connected to Machado, Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (who’s now out of the picture after going from the Marlins to the Cardinals). Speculatively, the D-backs could also pursue an offensive upgrade over defensively gifted catcher Jeff Mathis – particularly in the wake of Iannetta’s exit – though Hazen has downplayed that possibility.

Colorado Rockies (2017 record: 87-75; current projection for 2018: 80-82): Like division-rival Arizona, Colorado was among 2017’s biggest surprises. The Rockies haven’t rested on their laurels since the D-backs ousted them in the wild-card game, having signed a trio of established relievers – Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee – to three-year deals worth a guaranteed $106MM. Davis and Shaw, two newcomers, will replace Holland and Pat Neshek. Thanks to Davis, Shaw, McGee and the Adam Ottavino–Mike Dunn tandem, the Rockies have the priciest bullpen in the game, which they were able to assemble thanks in part to a starting staff that’s peppered with inexpensive hurlers.

Of course, it’s debatable whether the Rockies’ approach is the right one. They’re on pace to start next season well ahead of last year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $127MM-plus, and that’s without having done anything major to upgrade either their rotation – which lost Chatwood – or position player group. The Rockies addressed the latter area to a degree when they brought in Iannetta, though his signing may rule out a Lucroy re-up.

Given that the Rockies’ two best players, third baseman Nolan Arenado (two years) and center fielder Charlie Blackmon (one year), are running low on team control, there’s an argument that they should be aggressively trying to upgrade their lineup around them. But the Rockies haven’t been in on any of Martinez, Eric Hosmer or Logan Morrison to this point. They have shown interest in Jay Bruce, though, and he’d seemingly be a higher-impact signing (and a higher-cost one, granted) than fellow rumored possibilities Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez – both of whom posted mediocre production as Rockies over the past couple years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.

There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.

  • Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
  • Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
  • Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
  • Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
  • Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
  • J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
  • Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]

We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)

Arbitration Breakdown: Khris Davis

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 projections are available right here. We have already covered Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown and Mookie Betts’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Khris Davis is projected for a healthy raise of $6.1 million up to an $11.1 million salary due to his impressive 43 home runs this past year. With 110 RBI, but only a .247 average, the main case for Davis getting a big raise is definitely those home runs.

Home runs are notoriously important for arbitration, and are by far the main driver (along with playing time) of raises according to my model. However, this past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Davis as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.

Deflating Davis’ home run total by 26 percent would put him at 34 home runs, so it would still be a solid season. Chances are that a panel would view Davis as closer to a 40-homer guy (as would Davis’ reps and the A’s during negotiations in the shadow of how a panel would treat him), especially because the Oakland Coliseum deflates home runs, somewhat neutralizing the effect of the higher home run environment.

Only three guys entering their second years of arbitration have hit 40 home runs in the last five years: Two years ago, Josh Donaldson entered arbitration with a .297 average, along with 41 home runs and 123 RBI. His case seems superior to Davis’, mainly because of the fifty point batting average advantage. Thus, Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise seems like a likely ceiling for Khris Davis. Going back four years, we see homonym comparable Chris Davis getting a $7.05 million raise with 53 home runs and a .286 average, along with 138 RBIs; he seems like a ceiling as well. Nolan Arenado hit 41 home runs going into arbitration last year, but he also had a very high average (.294), so his $6.75 million raise seems like a ceiling too. So it is likely that the model is right to place Davis closer to $6 million than $7 million.

It is tough to find floors, but a couple potentials are Lucas Duda and Brandon Moss. Both hit in the .250s but with only 30 home runs, and got raises around $2.5 million. They are clearly well below where Davis should end up.

There is a large range of possibilities there. I think the model is probably as good a guess as any on this case, and I would look for Davis to land around $11 million. But I would probably think $10 million is more likely than $12 million based on the precedent from players like Arenado, Donaldson, and Chris Davis.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.

Mookie Betts | Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.

No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.

If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.

To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.

In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 arbitration projections are available right here.

Manny Machado had an off year this past season. His .259 average was well below his .284 career number. Unlike many other players this past season, he did not even set his personal home run record. He only had 33, slightly less than his totals for 2015 and 2016. However, with 95 RBI and 9 SB to tack onto his totals, Machado is projected for a $5.8 million raise up to a total salary of $17.3 million.

Part of the problem with determining the accuracy of the model in Machado’s case is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level in the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Machado as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.

For example, Chase Headley in 2013 is probably a decent comparable, even if his case is a little stale. He hit 31 HR with 115 RBI and batted .286, which bests Machado in AVG and RBI, but is similar to his HR total. With a $5.1 million raise, which would probably be somewhere between $6 and $6.5 million if we adjust for salary inflation,  Headley could serve as a solid analog to Machado. However, if we think of Machado’s 33 HR as more like the equivalent of 25 HR in 2013, then Machado should clearly get less than Headley’s inflation-adjusted raise.

If we want a more recent comparable, we might want to consider Todd Frazier last year, who hit .225/40/98. With the league only experiencing a nine percent increase in HR relative to last year, Frazier might be a more legitimate comparable. He clearly had more HR, but a worse average. He only got a $3.75 million raise, which may suggest that the $5.8 million raise projected for Machado is too high.

Eric Hosmer hit .266/25/104 last year, so he could be a solid comparable as well. He received a $4 million raise, again far less than Machado’s projection. Of course, Hosmer is probably a floor with similar AVG and RBI and notably fewer HR. So maybe we want to consider Machado getting something north of $4 million.

I think it makes sense to view Hosmer’s raise as a floor on Machado, especially because of the large difference in defensive skill. While defense does not appear to make a big impact on arbitration at the model level, it obviously can in some cases. I would guess that it helps Machado move towards a raise closer to $5 million. That would still fall short of his projection, but probably puts him in striking distance of somewhere around $16-17 million.

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