Silver Linings: National League East
In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. Today, we’ll hop over to the National League East.
[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central]
While the Phillies are all but eliminated and sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Nats, they hung in the race longer and the 2018 season represented a big step forward nevertheless. Accordingly, we won’t go looking for silver linings in Philadelphia. But we will look at the three worst-performing clubs in the division, including one organization that was rebuilding from the start along with two of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year.
Nationals: Young Outfielders
With Bryce Harper mired in a curious slump for much of the season’s first half, and top-of-the-order dynamo Adam Eaton again on the shelf with ankle issues, the Nationals – a paragon of ignominy and disappointment over the past few seasons – turned for an offensive boost to an unlikely source: 19-year-old Juan Soto, who entered the season with just 301 professional plate appearances, none of which had come above the Low-A level. Soto responded in a way few rookies – and virtually zero teenagers – have, slashing .297/.410/.518 after his May 15th call-up and carrying the club offensively through much of the summer. Soto’s seemingly slump-proof output has been buttressed by an insanely high 16.1% BB rate and a preternatural ability, for a left-handed hitter, to handle same-side arms: his 145 wRC+ ranks third among all major league hitters with at least 100 PA in left-on-left matchups. With Harper set to hit free agency after this season and sign perhaps the richest deal in major league history, Washington has insured itself beyond its wildest hopes: a true star, shining vibrantly before their eyes (for years to come, at a bargain rate of pay).
Though it was somewhat of a lost season for Washington’s most heralded prospect entering the 2018 campaign, 21-year-old Victor Robles, a consensus top-5 prospect among major outlets, offers another ray of hope for a franchise in desperate need of a spark as it transitions toward a future without many of its past stars. Robles, who missed a good chunk of the season with a hyperextended elbow, slashed just .278/.356/.386 in limited action for Triple-A Syracuse, though he did steal 14 bases in just 40 games for the Chiefs. The product of the Dominican Republic garners effusive praise for his work on defense, with MLB.com lauding his ‘exceptional range and instincts’ and ‘off-the-charts athleticism.’ Despite the tepid output at the plate in ’18, Robles still projects as a plus hitter with a chance for above-average power.
With those two cornerstones in place, a healthy Adam Eaton, baserunning whiz Trea Turner – whose 40 steals in 49 attempts have catapulted him to 4.2 fWAR, good for 2nd among all National League shortstops – and Anthony Rendon, perhaps the league’s most unheralded star, the revamped Nationals offense appears to yet again be a strength as the team prepares for the ’19 campaign.
Mets: Rotation Core
The Mets, who began the season in ecstasy and will end it in despair, had few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball this year. Young lynchpins Amed Rosario and Michael Conforto have had, at best, uneven seasons (albeit with generally promising finishes), and high-profile offseason signings Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier offered little in the way of amends. Brandon Nimmo‘s newfound power stroke was a pleasant surprise, but for the most part, New York relied far too heavily on ineffective veterans and underperforming youngsters.
The rotation, however, was a different story. Jacob deGrom, currently on pace for the third lowest ERA in franchise history at 1.78, is in the midst of an historic streak, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 27 consecutive starts, the longest such streak in major league history. DeGrom, who turned 30 in June, is under control through the 2020 season and could be a prime trade chip for a franchise in desperate need of an overhaul. Of course, all indications are that the Mets don’t want to part with their best player. As for Noah Syndergaard, the man they call Thor has turned in another stellar season. Even if he failed to produce results quite as dominant as some might wish, he finished with 9.30 K/9 against 2.39 BB/9 and again limited homers at an elite rate. Syndergaard’s age (26) and remaining years of team control (3) make him nearly as attractive a trade piece as DeGrom, though health is perhaps something of an ongoing question. Thor’s career FIP- (park- and league-adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) of 67 ranks 17th all-time among hurlers and trails only the late Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw among qualified starting pitchers.
Of course, those two hurlers were expected to perform. Even as Matt Harvey foundered and ended up departing, the Mets found a hugely valuable piece in a rather unexpected place. Former top prospect Zack Wheeler, whose early-career success was interrupted by a brutal run of injuries, enjoyed a renaissance as the summer progressed – turning the corner from poor results last year and early in 2018. Wheeler exhibited much-improved command, evidenced by a career-best 2.71 BB/9, which allowed him to compile 4.2 fWAR – easily eclipsing his career total over parts of three seasons with New York. Even Steven Matz, who struggled for much of the season’s first half, has turned in six consecutive quality starts while lowering his ERA to 4.03, and, perhaps more importantly, has bucked the injury bug that’s bit him routinely throughout his 9-year professional career.
The prospective new regime in New York will have much to consider in their first few months on the job, not least of which will be the fate of their talented young hurlers. Wheeler, 28, will enter Free Agency after the 2019 season and is the most likely candidate to be dealt, but a full-scale sell-off would go a long way toward replenishing a top-heavy farm and big league roster that shows more atrophy than promise. DeGrom and Syndergaard would, without question, net franchise-altering returns, but are they moves that ownership (with a new front office regime expected) will be willing to make? The winter of 2018 promises to be a fascinating one in the Big Apple.
Marlins: Superstar catcher
In a season with perhaps the lowest league-wide expectations since, well, the one following the last Marlins firesale, the new Miami regime had little to look forward to in 2018, and, as it turned out, even less to smile about.
The pitching staff was an unmitigated disaster, with 29 hurlers combining to post a 127 ERA- through the season’s first 152 games, easily the worst mark in MLB. Signs of life were scarce, though offseason acquisition Caleb Smith did strike out 10.24 batters per nine across 16 starts, showcasing a live fastball and a slider that ranked among the league’s best. And Trevor Richards, signed out of the independent Frontier League in July of 2016, rode a devastating changeup throughout the minors to the big league rotation in ’18, where poor command and a propensity for the gopher ball led to a 4.95 ERA mark through 23 starts, though he has struck out over a batter per inning as well.
Things weren’t much rosier on the offensive side, where just four regulars posted league-average or above batting lines. One of those players, rookie Brian Anderson, has ridden a .268/.351/.391 line and stellar UZR marks to a 3.0 fWAR total thus far in ’18, though his DRS totals are far less generous. Top prospect Lewis Brinson has posted a putrid .201/.241/.350 line to this point, and minor leaguers Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Magneuris Sierra – key prospect returns in offseason deals that sent away Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich – each struggled mightily at their respective minor league stops in ’18.
But J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins’ 4th-year catcher, has established himself as the premier backstop in the game. His .282/.347/.497 mark thus far is good for a 131 wRC+ in spacious Marlins Park, easily pacing MLB catchers offensively. And Realmuto is a well-regarded defender and overall athlete. After back to back 3.5+ fWAR seasons leading up to the 2018 campaign, Realmuto has raised the bar even further this season, posting 4.9 fWAR in just 118 games behind the dish. His 12.4 fWAR since the beginning of the ’16 season is tops among major league catchers, and with the Marlins still in the nascent stages of a wall-to-wall rebuild, he enters the offseason as one of the most coveted trade candidates in all of baseball. While the Fish have only two more seasons of control to sell, they’ll come at fairly affordable rates. And contending teams in search of a big move will be hard pressed to acquire a similarly appealing alternative behind the dish.
Silver Linings: National League Central
We looked yesterday at the silver linings for out-of-the-race clubs in the American League Central. Today, we’ll hop over to their National League counterparts. Given the successes of the team’s three best clubs, we’re only considering a pair of organizations this time around.
The most promising development to occur in these otherwise unsuccessful 2018 NL Central campaigns (with link to current depth chart):
Pirates: Rotation Core
It has been a rollercoaster year for the Bucs, who sprinted into the trade deadline but faded after doing some limited buying. Of course, the club’s mid-season acquisitions weren’t just aimed at the 2018 season, but they assuredly were designed to enhance the organization’s chances of contending over the next couple of seasons.
Given that the club has sought to consolidate its talent at the MLB level for the next few seasons, it seems fair to focus here on young major-league talent rather than further-off prospects. In that regard, the development of a new core of controllable starters is a notable turn of events that has perhaps gone unappreciated amidst the attention showered upon the acquisition of — and price paid for — Chris Archer.
By most measures, the Pirates had a middle-of-the-road rotation this year. But it achieved those results at a minimal cost. The 2019 staff looks to have plenty of talent and will again be dirt cheap. Archer and Ivan Nova are earning only $16MM, while a four-pack of young starters — Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Nick Kingham — all remain shy of arbitration eligibility.
Taillon has entrenched himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Williams and Musgrove have each at least established that they are high-quality rotation pieces. (The former has outperformed his peripherals somewhat while the opposite is true of the latter.) And though he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard in his debut effort, Kingham has otherwise shown a MLB-worthy skillset. Plus, top-twenty leaguewide prospect Mitch Keller is knocking on the door, even if surgery for Chad Kuhl hurts the depth picture.
The case for the Pirates as a surprisingly strong 2019 contender begins with the idea that they’ll have a deep, capable, and affordable rotation. But it also relies upon some other recent developments. The bullpen has a similarly promising core unit in the works, with five controllable sub-3.00 ERA hurlers on board (including deadline addition Keone Kela). The resurgence of Francisco Cervelli, bounceback of Starling Marte, and arrival of Adam Frazier (who has thrived) and Kevin Newman (who has not) are all worthy of note. There have been less-than-encouraging developments as well, such as Gregory Polanco‘s injury, but the Bucs could be an interesting team to watch, especially if they are able to make some strategic investments in areas of need this winter.
Reds: Middle-Infield Magic
There was a theory circulating in the middle of the season that the Reds were on the cusp of contention, having played roughly .500 ball since Jim Riggleman replaced Bryan Price in the managerial role. That concept has fallen out of favor. After all, since the calendar flipped to August, the Cincinnati club carries a 17-29 record.
Still, the organization does have some hope to carry with it out of 2018. In particular, it seems to have resolved some things in the middle infield. Scooter Gennett only has one season left before reaching free agency, but there’s ample indication he’ll engage with the team in offseason extension talks. Certainly, he has doubled down on a breakout 2017 campaign and proven worthy of everyday status — though his future value to the organization will certainly depend upon the price of a new deal, if it’s struck.
The shortstop position, meanwhile, had been in question since Zack Cozart departed, but the team now has a potential solution. Jose Peraza certainly hasn’t graded as a stellar defender there, but he has been within range of average with the glove. And his work at the plate has turned around after a worrisome 2017 campaign. Through 647 plate appearances in 2018, Peraza has hit at a roughly league-average .290/.329/.421 rate (99 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 23 steals. With his excellent baserunning added into the equation, he has been worth 2.5 fWAR and 2.1 rWAR.
If top prospect Nick Senzel gets healthy and comfortable in the corner outfield this fall, the Reds could have a strong position-player unit in place. Unfortunately, what this club really needed was a shinier silver lining from its pitching staff. Luis Castillo did bounce back from a rough opening to the season and Anthony DeSclafani is finally back on the bump. And there were some strong bullpen performances, even if the peripherals tell a much less promising tale. But the club also perhaps cast away the hidden gem it unearthed by trading Dylan Floro, who has thrived with the Dodgers. It got worrying news on top pitching prospect Hunter Greene. Several young starters failed to establish themselves (Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano) or were limited by injury (Brandon Finnegan), while Homer Bailey‘s malaise continued. Robert Stephenson showed promise at Triple-A but then struggled in a brief MLB rotation stint, was bumped to the bullpen, and ended up on the DL with shoulder problems.
Needless to say, there’s still vast uncertainty in the staff in 2019 and beyond. Finding a way to a quality 2019 pitching unit remains a difficult, but critical, task for the Cinci front office.
Silver Linings: American League Central
It’s often difficult to feel positive about a team when it is finishing out a season that won’t end in meaningful games, let alone postseason play. Still, there are silver linings to be found in even the worst campaigns. We’ll tick through every division in the coming days to identify the brightest spots for the non-competitive organizations.
First up is the division most in need of a pick-me-up: the American League Central. With the Indians cruising to a title, the four remaining clubs are all looking ahead to next year. Here’s each of those organizations’ most promising development from the ’18 campaign (with link to current depth chart):
Royals: The Middle Infield
Entering the year, the K.C. organization had a middling outlook up the middle on the dirt. Whit Merrifield had turned in a late-twenties breakout, sure, but could he keep it up? Meanwhile veteran Alcides Escobar was brought back to keep things patched up at short.
As it turns out, though, Merrifield has more than doubled down on his 2017 effort. Entering play today, he was — *checks* — **double-checks** — 25th (!) among all position-players by measure of fWAR. With ample cheap control remaining, he’s a heck of an asset, even if he is already 29 years of age.
Shortstop, though, remained an evident conundrum for much of the year. Enter (okay, re-enter) Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old, whose first MLB action improbably came in the 2015 World Series, is presently carrying a .284/.311/.467 slash with nine home runs and 25 steals in 241 plate appearances. He’s grading as an elite baserunner and high-quality defender at short, making him a potential core piece.
White Sox: Eloy On The Cusp
With apologies to Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, and Matt Davidson — nice seasons, all — the most notable development this year for the South Siders has occurred in their minor-league system. Many fans would like to see Eloy Jimenez in the majors right now, finishing off his spectacular campaign in style. Instead, they’ll have to wait until early 2019, though that also means their favorite club will control him for one more precious season.
Jimenez, 21, made good on his top-prospect billing, turning in a monster .337/.384/.577 campaign in 456 plate appearances split evenly between the organization’s top two affiliates. That makes him one of the truly elite prospects in baseball and, quite possibly, the much-needed superstar of the future.
Of course, there was a real shot that this nod would have gone to the pitching staff, but the hurlers just came up short. Michael Kopech‘s otherwise promising campaign ended in agony, with Tommy John surgery. Reynaldo Lopez has settled in as a solid, but hardly dominant starter. And while Carlos Rodon‘s return has been excellent in terms of results, his peripherals tell quite a different story.
Tigers: Landing Mize
No kidding, having the first pick the draft is a good thing. But it’s not every year — far from it — that a player like Casey Mize is there to be taken. Not only was Mize considered the top talent, he was also likely the most advanced player on the board.
Shades of Stephen Strasburg? The Tigers have reason to hope. He’s already sitting at the #20 spot on MLB.com’s ranking of the top prospects in baseball, to cite but one account of the impact to a Tigers system that has had its share of questions in recent years. Of course, Mize is also now but one of several intriguing young hurlers percolating up toward the majors through Detroit’s minor league ranks.
In a way, though, this is not quite the news you’d hope for. The Tigers’ MLB roster has obviously had its share of good news, including a strong year from Matt Boyd; continued success from Nicholas Castellanos (though he’s just one year from free agency); and the emergence of Niko Goodrum as a useful MLB asset. However, there hasn’t been much else to write home about otherwise at the major-league level. And a concerning season from Michael Fulmer and tepid output from Jeimer Candelario leave some cause for pessimism.
Twins: Encouraging Arms
In numerous ways, 2018 was quite a disappointment for a Minnesota organization that had designs on contention. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton not only failed to improve, but ended up on optional assignment. The team’s slate of short-term veteran signing fell way shy of delivering the anticipated value. Its leading hitter, Eduardo Escobar, was traded away months ago.
But there was one area where things went just about as well as might have been hoped: the team’s group of controllable MLB rotation pieces. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi have all been worth at least 2.5 fWAR and look to be quality values heading into 2019. Michael Pineda fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery before being felled by a meniscus tear, so there’s good reason to think he’ll be at full health. And though well-regarded prospect Stephen Gonsalves struggled badly in brief MLB action, he just turned in a strong outing today and was rather dominant at Triple-A, working to a 2.76 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 (but only 5.7 hits per nine) in 120 2/3 innings. 23-year-old Fernando Romero, a highly regarded young right-hander, gave the team some reason for optimism as well, though his overall numbers are dragged down by one particularly catastrophic start (eight runs in 1 2/3 innings).
It wasn’t all roses in the forward-looking portion of the pitching staff. Ervin Santana‘s option doesn’t seem desirable. More worryingly, Adalberto Mejia was cut short due to injury in an otherwise promising season. And it’s not as if the showing from the above-noted hurlers was particularly exciting. More might have been hoped for from Berrios and Odorizzi.
That said, it’s perhaps too easy to dismiss this kind of affordable productivity. Setting a sturdy baseline from the rotation is a notable development, particularly for an organization that must operate within spending limitations.
Of course, finding star-level players is still of greater importance. And there were notable developments there for Minny. While the outlook on Sano and Buxton is nowhere near as promising as it once was, both still have future value. And there’s now a pair of elite prospects rising through the system. Both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both landed among the twenty top minor-league performers in 2018 and are graded among the top twenty prospects in the game (see, e.g., “The Board” at Fangraphs). They’d have represented a worthy recipient of my “silver lining” label, to be sure, but neither is expected to be ready until 2020, so I’m taking the immediate value in the staff.
10 Relievers Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
We’ve already done this for position players and starters, so let’s check in on the relief arms. In this context, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz teaches, we’re looking for innings, ERA, and saves or (to a lesser extent) holds. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.
Now, to be sure, the “opener” concept and/or other contemporary baseball phenomena may one day lead to some changes in how reliever salaries are determined. For now, though, the traditional numbers still play in the arbitration process. Here are ten relievers who can anticipate nice first-time arb salaries after turning in strong 2018 showings.
- Matt Barnes, Red Sox: Though he doesn’t own an overly dominant ERA (3.39), Barnes has made the most of his 58 1/3 frames for purposes of arbitration-worthy counting stats. He has not only recorded an impressive (and quite surprising) 92 strikeouts, but has picked up 25 holds while serving in a set-up capacity for the league’s best regular season team.
- Carl Edwards Jr., Cubs (possible Super Two): With 1.134 years of service, Edwards is in the grey area for S2 eligibility, but well within the plausible zone to make it. He’s also one of the best candidates on this list. Despite some trouble with consistency, and an unhealthy volume of walks, Edwards has racked up 21 holds and 64 strikeouts over 49 innings of 2.39 ERA pitching.
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: Bradley hasn’t followed up on his dominating 2017 season, but he was still leaned on by the Arizona ballclub in the late innings. He has accumulated 66 2/3 frames of 3.65 ERA ball while recording a league-leading 33 holds.
- Taylor Rogers, Twins (likely Super Two): It has been a breakout campaign for Rogers, who is through 64 1/3 innings with a nice 2.80 ERA. Though he has only picked up a pair of saves, he has 16 holds and has retired 72 opposing batters on strikes.
- Scott Oberg, Rockies: Through 54 frames this year, Oberg carries a sparkling 2.17 ERA. All that despite pitching much of the time at Coors Field. With solid tallies of 13 holds and 50 strikeouts also bolstering his case, it has been a strong year all things considered.
- Chaz Roe, Rays: True, his 3.54 ERA in 48 1/3 innings doesn’t jump off the page. But Roe has picked up 27 holds, the seventh highest tally in baseball this year.
- Ryan Tepera, Blue Jays: He’s now up to seven saves and 16 holds, so Tepera has some useful numbers to dangle before a panel if his case makes it to a hearing. Otherwise, he carries a pedestrian 3.84 ERA in 61 innings.
- Mychal Givens, Orioles: True, he’s only carrying a 4.39 ERA. But Givens is likely to exceed seventy innings and has also accumulated 7 saves and 15 holds, so he’ll still be paid.
- Heath Hembree, Red Sox: With a 4.15 ERA in 56 1/3 innings, Hembree doesn’t seem like much of a candidate. But he has recorded 73 strikeouts and is one of only 22 pitchers to have reached twenty holds, so he’ll likely be another beneficiary of some of the ballclub’s overall success.
- Kyle Barraclough, Marlins: He has failed to capitalize on the opportunity to rack up a big number of saves, losing his closing job and sitting on 53 innings of 4.42 ERA ball. But the hard-throwing hurler has still reached double-digit saves (10) and picked up seven holds as well.
- Honorable Mention: Edwin Diaz had 1.121 days of service entering the season, giving him a very outside chance at Super Two eligibility. That seems unlikely, but if he does qualify, his monster season will result in a handsome reward. Ryan Buchter of the A’s has a case with 15 holds and a 3.12 ERA, but the southpaw has only thrown 34 2/3 innings. Dodgers righty Erik Goeddell has a sub-3.00 ERA, but is also under forty frames and hasn’t worked the late innings. And though he has 11 saves, Phillies reliever Hector Neris carries an ugly 5.52 ERA in just 44 frames.
The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018
Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!
This is how it works:
- Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
- Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
- A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
- The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.
A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.
But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.
You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors). Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.
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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart
Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.
Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.
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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.
The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.
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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto‘s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.
Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.
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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.
The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.
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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.
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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart
Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.
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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart
As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.
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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart
The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.
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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart
The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.
After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,” he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.
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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart
Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.
While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.
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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart
The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.
Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).
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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.
Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.
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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart
After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.
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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart
Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A. It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.
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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.
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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart
Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.
The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.
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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart
Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.
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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart
The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.
In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.
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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart
Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).
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Power Ranking Leaders By Level
Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays
Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies
High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks
Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox
Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets
Rookie
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres
10 Starting Pitchers Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
We checked in last night at some position players who have done a lot in 2018 to boost their earning capacity in their first trip through arbitration. Now, we’ll turn to the hurlers. Remember, as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz has divined, the touchstones for pitchers are innings, ERA, and accumulation of outcome-based stats — i.e., wins for starters. Swartz also frequently cites strikeouts as a factor in analyzing comparables.
Changes in the game may start to shift the arb earning metrics. But there’s still reason to believe the above-cited factors will continue to drive the process for the time being. Here are ten starting pitchers whose big seasons set the stage for strong 2019 salaries:
- Aaron Nola, Phillies: It has been a dominant season for Nola, who has racked up 16 wins through 193 2/3 innings of 2.42 ERA pitching to this point. That adds to an already-impressive compilation of stats at this early stage of his career. It doesn’t seem he’ll capture the Cy Young vote, despite numbers sufficient to support a case, but even a top-three finish would bolster his arb resume.
- Luis Severino, Yankees (likely Super Two): He hasn’t held up the pace all season long, but Severino is still carrying very appealing overall numbers — including those of the type that play well in arbitration. In 179 1/3 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 17 wins and 207 strikeouts. He has cracked 200 K’s now in consecutive seasons.
- Sean Manaea, Athletics (likely Super Two): A shoulder injury diminishes Manaea’s future outlook and could keep him on the shelf for all of 2019. But other than robbing him of his final five starts, it doesn’t detract from a strong set of arb stats. He has reached 160 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and compiled a dozen wins. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Manaea also provided his agents with an ace in the hole when he spun a no-hitter earlier this season.
- Matthew Boyd, Tigers (possible Super Two): If he can notch another win, Boyd will reach a ten-spot. But that’s not the only point in his favor from a surprisingly solid statistical line. Boyd is likely to finish with over 175 frames and could yet draw his ERA to below the 4.00 line; regardless of exactly how things turn out, he’ll be sturdy in both departments. And he has already topped 150 strikeouts. All told, he’s done a ton to advance his case after entering the season with an unappealing stat line. Of course, he’ll have to cross his fingers that 2.136 days of service is enough to qualify as a Super Two.
- Jon Gray, Rockies: The candidates from this point forward all have some major warts. In this case, it’s an ugly 5.07 ERA that doesn’t match Gray’s strong peripherals. He’ll be dinged for that, no doubt, but also rewarded for tallying double-digit wins and over 160 innings with more still there for the taking.
- Vince Velasquez, Phillies: He’s a big strikeout threat, but Velasquez has missed a few starts and his results don’t match his peripherals. Still, 139 innings of 4.53 ERA ball, with eight wins and 156 Ks, ought to play fairly well — particularly if he can pad that line over the final few outings of the season.
- Tyler Anderson, Rockies: Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, to be sure, but Anderson’s 4.82 ERA isn’t going to be viewed with much favor. He also has only six wins. Still, he’s up to 162 1/3 innings and will be compensated for that fact alone.
- Jose Urena, Marlins: Almost an exact match for Anderson, except with the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, Urena hasn’t been wildly impressive but is in line to get paid. He’s thrown precisely as many frames as Anderson and worked to a 4.21 ERA with a paltry seven wins.
- Steven Matz, Mets: It hasn’t always been pretty, and the home runs are a problem, but Matz is currently through 140 frames with a 4.18 ERA. Though he only has five wins, the southpaw could yet end the season with 150 punchouts.
- Junior Guerra (likely Super Two): Guerra gets the final spot over a few similarly situated hurlers because he has done so much to help himself this year. After a rough 2017 season, the late-blooming hurler’s future was in doubt. But he has taken the ball for 26 starts and two relief appearances, throwing 137 2/3 total innings of 4.18 ERA ball. He’s only sitting on six wins and 132 strikeouts, but the bottom-line results are solid.
- Honorable Mention: The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is another likely Super Two, but he is headed in the wrong direction after generally quality work to open his career. In terms of outcomes, Mike Montgomery of the Cubs certainly deserved a nod, but he has only compiled 111 2/3 innings to this point and his 3.87 ERA is accompanied by only 74 strikeouts. It’s the opposite situation for Orioles righty Dylan Bundy, who’ll almost certainly end up with over 160 innings with more than a strikeout per frame but is also surrendering more than five earned runs per nine owing to an out-of-control home run rate.
10 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.
On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.
MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.
While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.
On to the list:
- Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
- Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
- Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
- Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
- Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
- Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
- Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
- Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
- Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.
An Early Look At J.A. Happ’s Next Contract
As you may or may not recall, we have been touting J.A. Happ for a fair portion of the present season, dating at least to our first ranking of the top summer trade candidates. The veteran southpaw has certainly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations since he ended up being traded. Now, as he prepares for the postseason with the Yankees, it’s worth taking an early look at his potential free-agent earnings.
Happ, of course, already went on the market not long ago. At the time, he was coming off of an oddball 2015 season that he finished in dominating form. His resulting three-year, $36MM deal certainly rewarded a strong late-year push from a pitcher who had — just months before — seemed at risk of entering a late-career journeyman phase.
That pact worked out swimmingly for the Jays, who received 77 generally excellent starts from Happ before spinning him off to the division-rival Yanks for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. For New York, the tail end of the deal has been quite a nice asset as well.
In his past eight starts, in fact, Happ has allowed just 14 earned runs on 38 hits, with a 43:9 K/BB ratio, over 46 2/3 innings. For the year, he has averaged a career-high 9.7 K/9 on a personal-best 10.3% swinging-strike rate It’s not all roses, of course. The quality results have come in spite of the fact that Happ has struggled to limit the long ball, allowing 1.4 per nine on the season.
All said, Happ has probably deserved the results — a 3.75 ERA in 160 2/3 innings — that he has produced on the year. The dingers have driven up his FIP (4.01), but xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.60) suggest his outcomes matchhis performance.
Looking ahead, the outlook seems promising. Happ is throwing as hard as ever. His output has been steady and excellent for some time now. And he has a rather long track record of durability, having averaged 153 innings for the past eight seasons and 168 annually for the past four (which will go up when 2018 is completed).
It’s possible that Happ will slot in behind Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, and Dallas Keuchel to become the fourth-highest-paid starter on this lefty-loaded market. Certainly, the more youthful Gio Gonzalez could also stake a claim to the fourth spot, particularly if he finishes strong, but he has had some rough patches this year and his velocity decline remains a concern. Charlie Morton would be in the same general position as Happ, in terms of his age, but with a more impressive recent showing. In his case, though, he has strongly suggested he won’t just be seeking to maximize an overall contract guarantee; if anything, Morton sounds like a man who’ll only sign on for a single season at a time. Fellow veteran southpaw Cole Hamels could surely also be a factor, particularly at a somewhat younger age, though it remains to be seen how clubs will view the sustainability of his recent performance boost since moving via trade.
Regardless of the precise rank ordering, Happ’s general market position makes eminently possible that a fair number of contending teams will view him as a more appealing target than some of the younger, more expensive pitchers ahead of him. Capturing a quality arm for a shorter term, after all, holds appeal in and of itself. There’s no real chance of Happ signing for more than three years, while it could take a five-year commitment to land Corbin or Keuchel. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that signing Happ won’t mean giving up draft picks since he’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.
So, supposing there’s steady interest in Happ, what’s the contractual upside here? As noted, there’s no real argument for his reps to pursue a four-year term given his age. Happ will be selling his age-36 season and beyond.
That gives us a rather clear bound. But it doesn’t mean Happ can’t still earn quite well. In fact, two recent comps suggest he can. Entering his age-37 season, coming off of an excellent campaign, John Lackey secured a two-year, $32MM commitment from the Cubs. Even more recently, Rich Hill reached three guaranteed years at the same $16MM AAV despite the fact that he, too, was also entering his age-37 year and had no shortage of historical injury issues.
In each of those cases, perhaps, stellar outcomes helped to drive the paydays. Happ, arguably, hasn’t impressed to the same degree in his immediate platform year. But we already know he could secure a $12MM annual commitment. His steady velocity is a highly notable consideration. And the three-year run-up to this free agency has been stellar. (As of right now: 501 innings of 3.47 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.)
So, there’s certainly a case to be made that Happ ought to out-earn his last contract on an otherwise similar arrangements. Even if he doesn’t quite reach the $16MM annual value level of those prior (and somewhat older) comps, Happ has a very strong chance to achieve more than a $40MM guarantee over a three-year term. And the yearly value could even rise beyond the Lackey/Hill levels if there’s particularly robust interest or if Happ prefers a two-year arrangement.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract
The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.
Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.
If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.
All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.
Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.
For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?
Guess Clayton Kershaw's Next Contract
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$90MM to $125MM 27% (2,185)
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$125MM to $175MM 26% (2,129)
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$65MM (opt-in) 20% (1,603)
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$175MM+ 16% (1,298)
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$65MM to $90MM 11% (847)
Total votes: 8,062
Extension Candidate: Anthony Rendon
The Nationals will watch their best-known, homegrown position player hit the open market this season. But the team still has another season of control over another top draft choice who made good on his promise, potentially creating an opening for long-term talks.
Sure, Bryce Harper is the bigger star and the more visible talent. But since Anthony Rendon turned into a regular in 2014, he has out-WAR’ed Harper. That’s particularly true over the past three seasons, as Rendon has churned out quality campaigns while Harper’s 2015 MVP effort has faded into memory.
The shadow hanging over Rendon seems to suit his personality. But it has seriously obscured his productivity. Since the start of ’14, he’s among the ten biggest position-player WAR producers in the game, yet he somehow hasn’t yet been named to an All-Star team. True, Rendon has twice finished among the top-ten in the MVP vote, but his profile remains much lower than the quality of his play would support — not even close to that of his long-time teammate.
It’s somewhat surprising that the careers of Harper and Rendon have never been seen as being intertwined in any meaningful way, despite the fact that they were chosen with lofty picks in successive drafts and reached the majors on a similar timetable. There are many reasons for that fact, but it’s all the more interesting to ponder given that there could be a very tangible way in which their outlook is connected. Specifically, if the Nats decide to let Harper walk, or are unable to coax him back, they’ll have vastly more future payroll capacity to work with in pursuing a new deal with Rendon.
To be sure, the Nats have more immediate needs than a new deal with Rendon, who’ll command a healthy raise on his $12.3MM salary through arbitration. But that’s all the more true in the case of Harper, who can be replaced from within by rising young talents Juan Soto and Victor Robles. In the case of Rendon, there’s no obvious heir at third base once he reaches free agency next fall. True, Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia loom as promising young players in the infield, but neither is quite as advanced or as promising as are the outfielders.
Plus, there’s likely more value to be achieved with a Rendon deal than one involving Harper, if for no other reason than that the latter will be on the open market at a rarely-seen point of his career. Convincing Rendon to stay would cost, to be sure, and he’s also a client of Scott Boras (as are many other current and former Nats, including the recently extended Stephen Strasburg). But it is at least possible that the low-key player would be more inclined to take a slight discount to stave off some risk and maintain stability. He won’t be selling as much of his youth; though he only just turned 28, Rendon won’t reach the market at an unusually young age. And he’d also be weighing terms with another year to go before free agency, creating a lever for at least something of a discount.
Risk, to be sure, would weigh in the equation for both sides if talks take place. Beyond the usual, injuries have been a particular concern for Rendon. A variety of lower-leg ailments, involving his ankles especially, have limited him over the years — both before and during his professional career. While he turned in mostly full 2016 and 2017 seasons, Rendon ended up missing a reasonably lengthy stretch this year after suffering a hairline toe fracture on a hit-by-pitch.
That consideration might weigh down the price, but surely wouldn’t get in the way of a deal entirely. As noted above, after all, Rendon has been supremely valuable despite his medical rap sheet.
It’s also true that Rendon isn’t hitting quite as much as he did in his outstanding 2017 season, when he walked more than he struck out and produced a career-high .232 isolated power mark. But that’s not to say that he isn’t doing quite a lot with the bat. Through 511 plate appearances in 2018, Rendon carries a .298/.358/.508 slash with 19 long balls.
This, interestingly, is the most aggressive version of Rendon we’ve seen. His strikeout-to-walk numbers (14.3% vs. 8.6%) have returned to something like his career norms after the uber-patient 2017 showing. He’s swinging (48.1%) and chasing out of the zone (29.9%) more than ever, though his contact rate remains in range of his career mean.
That’s not necessarily a problem, particularly since we know he has the pitch recognition in his pocket if needed. Rendon is also making more hard contact than ever before (38.1%) this season, so much so that Statcast thinks he has been quite unlucky (.403 xwOBA vs. .366 wOBA).
It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that Rendon is also a high-quality all-around player. He’s not stealing as often this year as in the past but grades as a well-above-average overall baserunner. With the glove, it’s worth noting a sudden downturn in DRS (from +7 to -6). But he’s still a solidly above-average performer in the view of UZR and has long drawn sterling grades from those metrics and scouts.
So, what kind of a price tag might the Nats be looking at?
In truth, we haven’t seen the veteran third base market tested through extensions for quite some time. David Wright (eight years, $138MM) and Ryan Zimmerman (eight years, $126MM) signed those contracts before Rendon was even in the big leagues. Now, they feel a bit longer and a bit lighter on annual salary than we’re likely to see in the present market. The more recent action has been on players with much greater team control remaining, largely rendering them useless for our purposes.
Neither has the free-agent market seen many premium third baggers of late. Mike Moustakas fell flat on the open market with worries over his OBP and glovework. Pablo Sandoval got five years and $95MM, representing one of the closest comps for Rendon, though the Nats’ star is surely in a higher tier altogether. Before that, Adrian Beltre‘s five-year, $80MM deal stands out as a laughable bargain for the club … and also a deal that’s far too stale to have any real relevance.
Perhaps, in approaching a Rendon price tag, we ought to consider two far more recent contracts, even if they truly aren’t on all fours with Rendon’s situation. Charlie Blackmon inked a deal in advance of his walk season that put a $21MM valuation on his free-agent seasons. While he was in an older age bracket, thus obviating the value of looking at his years, Blackmon was arguably a similarly situated player in terms of quality. Of course, there’s also an argument to be made that Rendon isn’t that far shy of the ability level of Jose Altuve, who was two years from the open market when he signed a deal with an AAV of over $30MM for his age-30 through age-34 seasons. Then again, he won’t be coming off of a superlative season capped by a World Series win and MVP award.
For Rendon, who’d stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-30 season without a new deal, it’s certainly arguable that a valuation between those two makes sense. Contract length is another variable that can’t be considered in isolation; likewise, options and opt-outs are a factor. Generally, the trend is toward slightly shorter deals that leave players with chances to cut things off a few years into the deal. In this case, perhaps, Rendon would be looking at adding five or six new seasons on top of his existing 2019 arbitration contract. With an AAV range in the neighborhood of $22MM to $26MM, that puts a rough guess in the range of a $130MM new-money commitment.
It’s certainly possible that’d be a bit too rich for the Nats’ liking, especially given the injury history (the details of which they know better than other teams) and the organization’s other needs. Then again, it may not be enough for Rendon to give up the chance of testing the open market. As always, these matters come down to negotiations between parties with real-world interests that can’t simply be reduced to baseball valuations. From the perspective of the baseball market, however, the above number — with a healthy error bar on either side — seems to be a generally fair target.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.