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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Yankees instead nearly resulted in a World Series berth, as breakouts from Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino (among others) propelled the club to a 91-71 record. With an excellent young core and a still-stacked farm system, the Yankees look like a powerhouse for years to come.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Yankees Depth Chart | New York Yankees Payroll Outlook]

The Yankees traded their top two relievers and their designated hitter in July 2016 and played the uncharacteristic part of a deadline seller. Despite ponying up to pay Aroldis Chapman on a record-setting five-year contract, they weren’t viewed as a major threat in the AL East. Aaron Judge didn’t even enter Spring Training with a surefire spot on the big league roster — and certainly no one forecast an 8-WAR, MVP-caliber season from him — while their rotation came with injury question marks and inexperience. Could CC Sabathia endure another full, healthy season at age 37? Would Luis Severino bounce back after posting a 5.83 ERA and losing his rotation spot in 2016? Could Jordan Montgomery serve as a viable rotation member at age 24 with just 37 Triple-A innings under his belt? The answer, across the board, proved to be a resounding yes.

The Yankees’ first-half results were impressive enough that GM Brian Cashman elected to begin a good portion of his offseason shopping back in July. Even with the success in their rotation, the Yankees were cognizant of the fact that Sabathia’s contract was expiring, as was that of Michael Pineda (who had already undergone Tommy John surgery). Acquiring Sonny Gray gave the Yanks two and a half years of control over an arm that can slot comfortably into the second or third slot in their rotation. Picking up David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle (along with rental piece Todd Frazier) in a massive trade with the White Sox ensured a deep and talented bullpen and left the club with little need to pay top-of-the-market prices for additional relief help this winter.

While some of their needs are already filled, the Yankees have one gaping hole in the organization that few would’ve predicted: manager. After a decade-long run at the helm of the Yankees, Joe Girardi was informed by the team that his contract would not be renewed. Reports since his fairly stunning dismissal have suggested that the Yankees want more of a “player’s” manager and that Girardi’s relationship with Cashman wasn’t particularly strong toward the end of his tenure.

Whoever succeeds Girardi will be inheriting an enviable roster that is backed by a deep farm system. However, he’ll also have to contend with the largest and one of the most critical media markets in the country and extremely high expectations from a fanbase that is now dreaming of a World Series run. To date, Eric Wedge is the only reported candidate with prior experience as a big league manager. If the Yankees do go with a rookie skipper, it will be baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche.

Looking to the Yankees’ roster, there aren’t many glaring deficiencies — as one would expect from a team that won 91 games. Greg Bird has yet to prove himself over the life of a full season at first base, but Cashman has stated on-record that he expects Bird to be their first baseman next year as the team looks to drop under the luxury tax barrier. Despite plenty of speculation over the summer, there won’t be a pursuit of Eric Hosmer.

Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Judge are all but assured of regular playing time. Chase Headley once again rebounded from a slow start to finish with decent numbers, though he’ll be pushed by prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at some point in 2018. Gary Sanchez will hold down regular catching duties, though the team could certainly stand to explore the possibility of adding a better backup — potentially allowing Sanchez to spend some more time at DH.

Austin Romine’s batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all fell shy of the .300 mark, and he threw out just 3 of 29 potential base thieves. Alex Avila would make for a nice left-handed complement to Sanchez (not that he needs platooning) and could also handle some first base if needed. Chris Iannetta would be another affordable veteran coming off a nice year in Arizona.

Plenty of Yankees fans have speculated about the possibility of a Starlin Castro trade on the heels of two decent but unspectacular seasons in the Bronx. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a roughly league-average bat with questionable second-base defense in two years with the Yankees, and he’s owed $22MM over the next two years. Trading him could allow the Yankees to play both Andujar (third base) and Torres (second base) with regularity on either side of Gregorius. However, there’s not much in the way of surplus value on Castro’s contract, and it’s a poor time to be selling a second baseman. Neil Walker stands as a quality free-agent option, and the trade market also features the likes of Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon and Cesar Hernandez, among several others. Beyond that, there aren’t that many clubs seeking second-base upgrades in the first place. It’s certainly not impossible to envision a Castro trade, but it is difficult to imagine too much of a market for his services developing.

If there’s one contract that Yankees fans are clamoring to move, however, it’s that of Jacoby Ellsbury. The 34-year-old still has a whopping three years and $68.5MM remaining on his contract, to say nothing of a full no-trade clause. The Yankees will play Gardner in left, Hicks in center and Judge in right even with Ellsbury in the fold, but his presence makes it more difficult to carry Clint Frazier on the roster and also limits the team’s financial flexibility moving forward.

Unfortunately, Ellsbury hasn’t performed anywhere near well enough to make his contract movable in its current state. It’s difficult to envision him receiving even three years and $30MM on the open market right now, and I’d wager that the Yankees would need to be open to eating as much as $40-45MM to facilitate a deal. The Mariners are an oft-speculated fit given Ellsbury’s Oregon roots, but they have a crowded payroll as it is and better options to pursue in free agency.

One completely speculative possibility would be a swap involving Ellsbury and former Yankee Ian Kennedy, who is still owed $49MM over the remainder of his own undesirable deal. The Yankees would likely need to include some decent minor league talent to pique Kansas City’s interest — there’s no reason for the Royals to simply take on Ellsbury’s larger contract, especially when they need to fill their rotation — but adding an upper-level minor league arm that could affordably replace Kennedy is an intriguing concept. The Yankees would still have an overpaid fifth starter in Kennedy, but they’d lessen their luxury tax ledger considerably and open a spot to more easily fit Frazier onto the roster. (More broadly, the Yankees will again look for ways to take advantage of their overstuffed 40-man roster while also opening room for the next wave of prospects in need of protection.)

The 2018 rotation outlook was the most significant question for the Yankees heading into the season. Back in Spring Training, I noted that with Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Pineda all potential free agents at season’s end and Severino/Montgomery both unproven, there was potential for a truly murky outlook. What a difference six months makes.

Severino looks likely to be the team’s Opening Day starter next year, and he’ll be trailed by Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. The 29-year-old Tanaka made the rather surprising decision to remain with the Yankees rather than opting out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. While it’s true that Tanaka’s ERA isn’t exactly sparkling, the righty was excellent from early June through season’s end, shined in the postseason, and generally delivered sensational K/BB numbers over the course of the season. Topping $67MM on the free-agent market looked like a clearly attainable goal (unless medical reports on his elbow are more troubling than we know), but Tanaka called the decision “simple” in announcing the move and voiced a love of New York City and the Yankees’ fans. The feeling should be mutual, as it’s a nice price for a quality player at a position of need.

With Severino, Gray, Tanaka and Montgomery all penciled into the rotation, there’s little cause to pursue a high-priced starter. A reunion with CC Sabathia makes some sense on a short-term deal, though Yankees fans are almost universally fixated on a deal with a pitcher that is nearly a decade and a half younger. Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani will be posted by the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters if the league, the players union and Nippon Professional Baseball all agree to a new posting system. It’s not yet a guarantee that’ll happen — there’s a Monday deadline to find out — but if Ohtani becomes available, the Yankees will be among the teams favored to land him.

New York can currently offer a $3.25MM bonus, though there’s still time to trade for additional international money. The Rangers ($3.535MM) can offer the most, while the Twins ($3.245MM) are right behind the Yankees. It’s early to pencil Ohtani into their starting five, but doing so would give the Yankees a powerhouse rotation on paper and could allow the club to more freely entertain the notion of including pitching prospects like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield in trades.

Turning to the bullpen, there’s no need for a significant overhaul. The Yankees’ pen will once again be anchored by Chapman, and the setup core currently projects to include Dellin Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Chad Green, Adam Warren and Chasen Shreve. Another lefty could be of interest for matchup purposes, especially since most of the Yankees’ upper-level arms are right-handed, but many of the Yankees’ right-handed setup options shut down lefties as well as righties last year.

Given the depth of that group, it’s worth wondering if they’ll all return. Specifically, Betances comes to mind as a particularly obvious trade chip. The bizarre manner in which Yankees president Randy Levine called out Betances after last year’s arbitration hearing drove somewhat of a wedge between the two sides, and while Betances remains a supremely talented reliever, he also battled serious control issues in 2017 (6.6 BB/9 during the regular season plus five walks in four playoff innings).

Betances has two years of arbitration remaining and has averaged better than 15 punchouts per nine innings in the past two seasons, so he’d certainly appeal to other clubs. It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply trade Betances for a prospect(s) given their desire to compete, but they could use Betances to fill another need — such as a solid left-handed setup option with more team control, perhaps from a team looking for a shorter-term upgrade at the back of its ’pen. Doing so could also spare the Yankees a slight bit of luxury tax concern, and while that wouldn’t be a main factor in a theoretical swap, it could be a bonus.

After all, both Cashman and Steinbrenner have plainly stated that their firm plan is to get under the $197MM luxury tax line. Doing so would reset the Yankees’ penalty level — tax penalization is compounded for each consecutive year that a team is over the threshold — in advance of next year’s class of free agents. At that point, both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will be available at the respective ages of 25 and 26. Clayton Kershaw, too, figures to be a free agent once he opts out of the remaining two years on his contract.

The Yankees still have some wiggle room — roughly $25MM or so in average annual value — to make some additions to next year’s roster. However, their proximity to the luxury tax line and stated desire to stay south of it makes it exceptionally unlikely that they’ll be a player for a major item such as Giancarlo Stanton. Even if the Yankees could acquire Stanton and ever-so-slightly stay under the luxury tax line, they’d be leaving themselves with little room for making in-season moves to address injuries and other unforeseen circumstances that arise over the course of a given year.

Rather than a major item like Stanton, it’s possible that the Yankees will instead look to beef up their bench with an improvement at backup catcher or utility infielder — they’re reportedly interested in Texas’ Jurickson Profar, for instance. They could also poke around the left-handed relief market and talk to names like Mike Minor, Jake McGee and Tony Watson.

Certainly, if the team could somehow find a way to jettison some of Ellsbury’s contract or move Headley, there’d be more flexibility for a big ticket item. It seems likelier, though, to expect a more reserved offseason in the Bronx prior to a more aggressive offseason approach following the 2018 campaign.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After surprising many by earning a wild card slot and advancing to the NLDS last season, the Diamondbacks will juggle a large arbitration class and several key free agent decisions while trying to return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Arizona Diamondbacks Offseason Page | Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

It only took one offseason for first-year GM Mike Hazen to get his team back on the winning track, though in fairness to the former Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart-led front office, the 2017 D’Backs were blessed with much better health and far more breakout performances than the unfortunate 2016 squad.  Since the team is now perhaps a bit ahead of schedule in terms of returning to contention, however, Hazen now faces an interesting offseason of trying to fill various roster holes while still keeping the payroll in check.

The Diamondbacks project to owe just over $114MM to 19 players next year (the five guaranteed deals and the whopping 14-player arbitration class), and that number rises to the $120MM range if you factor in the key pre-arb players who will certainly be on next year’s team.  While some money could be saved via non-tenders, the D’Backs still project to have the largest Opening Day payroll in the franchise history.  There isn’t going to be much, if any, of a payroll increase, according to team president Derrick Hall, who also recently stated that the D’Backs will “have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”

With this in mind, it doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a reunion with J.D. Martinez, especially given Martinez’s reported asking price of a staggering $210MM.  Team management hasn’t closed the door on the chances of Martinez returning, though even if he and agent Scott Boras settle for “only” the six years and $150MM projected by MLBTR, that will leave the D’Backs committing well over half their payroll to just two players: Martinez and Zack Greinke.  And that doesn’t even factor in possible extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, as the star first baseman is only controlled through the 2019 season.

So, how could Hazen and company “get creative” in finding a way to bring Martinez back?  The three cited non-tender candidates would account for $4MM, though more money could be saved in that department if Shelby Miller or Randall Delgado were also non-tendered.  The D’Backs would have to be pessimistic about Miller’s recovery from Tommy John surgery or Delgado’s flexor strain to consider dumping either pitcher, though as Welington Castillo could tell you, Arizona isn’t shy about making surprising non-tender calls.

Other possibilities include shopping Patrick Corbin or A.J. Pollock, both of whom are free agents after the 2018 season.  Pollock missed virtually all of 2016 due to a fractured elbow and was limited to only 112 games in 2017 due to groin and quad injuries, though he was still an above-average run creator and center field defender last season.  Several teams looking for center field help would have interest in Pollock if he was made available, though given the superstar ceiling he exhibited in 2015, Arizona probably sees a healthy Pollock as a way to help fill the offensive hole left behind if Martinez departs.

After a bullpen demotion in 2016, Corbin re-established himself as a starter with a solid 3.0 fWAR season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 189 2/3 innings.  He’d be a good trade chip to teams looking to add pitching, and the Diamondbacks can potentially afford to part with Corbin given how the rest of their rotation emerged as a strength last year.  Even without Corbin, the Snakes would still have a nice core of Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley, with Miller scheduled for a midseason return and prospects Anthony Banda and Taylor Clarke knocking on the door to battle for the fifth starter’s job.  A low-cost veteran could also be brought in if the D’Backs prefer Banda and Clarke as Triple-A depth to start the year.

Of course, the boldest move would be to trade Greinke, who just turned 34 in October and is still owed $138.5MM over the next four years.  Greinke rebounded from a disappointing 2016 to display his usual excellent form last season.  While the D’Backs are certainly more comfortable paying Greinke that much if he pitches like an ace, the fact that he accounts for such a significant portion of the payroll means that the team has to at least keep an eye out for trade possibilities.  (Greinke has some control over his destiny in the form of a 15-team no-trade clause.)  The D’Backs were reportedly trying to unload all of Greinke’s contract during trade talks in the summer of 2016; this still seems like a long shot now, though Greinke’s strong year will aid in getting more of his salary off Arizona’s books.

Losing Greinke rather than Corbin is obviously a much bigger blow to the rotation, though if a Greinke trade did become a reality, the D’Backs could still shop for more pitching.  Consider that MLBTR projects Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to find free agent deals this winter that combined won’t match what Greinke will earn over the next four seasons.  Dealing Greinke and then signing Lynn or Cobb would be a downgrade at the front of the rotation but a major dose of payroll relief.

(Obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention: the D’Backs will certainly join every other team in baseball in trying to gain the attention of the Japanese superstar if and when the bidding begins on Ohtani’s services.  It’s probably safe to categorize the Diamondbacks as a less-likely candidate to sign Ohtani, though they have been in the mix for high-profile Japanese players in the past.)

Turning to the relief side of the pitching equation, Arizona has some holes to fill with closer Fernando Rodney, Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez all hitting free agency.  None of this trio would be particularly expensive to re-sign if the D’Backs simply wanted to get the band back together, though some upgrading will be necessary depending on what happens with the likes of Hoover or McFarland in arbitration.  Archie Bradley could potentially take over the closer’s job from the somewhat shaky Rodney, though the team may feel he is more valuable as a multi-inning pitcher who can be deployed at any point in a game.  Given their other needs and lack of payroll flexibility, expect the D’Backs to again target low-cost relief signings in the hopes of succeeding as they did with Rodney, De La Rosa, and Hoover last offseason.

Speaking of winning signings, Chris Iannetta more than delivered on his one-year, $1.5MM deal from a winter ago, as he hit .254/.354/.511 with 17 homers over 316 plate appearances.  Arizona could try to re-sign Iannetta, or perhaps look to take advantage of what could be a somewhat quiet free agent catching market.  The Rockies are the only contender with a clear need behind the plate, with the Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox all speculative candidates to look for catching help.  With Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, and Castillo as the big names on the market, a relative lack of suitors could bring one of these catchers into the Diamondbacks’ price range, or at least allow Iannetta to be re-signed on another relatively inexpensive deal.  Castillo probably isn’t a candidate given that the D’Backs just parted ways with him last offseason, though Lucroy or Avila could add more pop from the catcher position if the Snakes don’t feel Iannetta can replicate his 2017 numbers.

Looking elsewhere around the diamond, the D’Backs are set at first base (Goldschmidt), third base (Jake Lamb), center field (Pollock), and right field (David Peralta).  Yasmany Tomas is still penciled in as the left fielder, though he was plagued by injuries in 2017 and he has yet to show much consistency at the plate over his three-year MLB career.  Socrates Brito looks like an interesting fourth outfielder candidate who could earn more playing time as Tomas’ late-game defensive replacement or even platoon partner.  A Pollock trade would obviously shake things up considerably in the outfield; depending on the return in that deal, the D’Backs would then be in the market for center field help, perhaps a veteran like Cameron Maybin or Jarrod Dyson.

The D’Backs are also more than set in the middle infield in terms of sheer numbers, though they’ll be hoping for more production at the plate.  Ketel Marte and Brandon Drury are the respective favorites at shortstop and second base, with Nick Ahmed also in the mix at short and Chris Owings available at both positions in his multi-position utility role.  Veteran Daniel Descalso, whose 2018 option has already been exercised by the D’Backs, will also be back in a utilityman role.

This surplus of infielders capable of playing multiple positions makes the D’Backs a good trade partner for teams looking for infield help, such as the Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Giants.  No trade is likely to approach the scope of the Jean Segura deal from a year ago unless an infielder is included as part of a larger trade package, though the Snakes can certainly address at least one need depending on which infielder is traded.  Drury and Owings have the most trade value but are also the two the D’Backs would probably most like to keep, particularly since Lamb still needs to be spelled against left-handed pitching.

This is just my speculation, but Lamb could also be a trade chip if Arizona is looking for players that could bring back a decent return.  The 27-year-old has delivered a lot of pop over the last two seasons, though he also has some significant flaws — an inability to hit southpaws, below-average third base defense, and a tendency to fade after the All-Star break.  Lamb is arb-eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2020, so while the Snakes would miss his power, they could deal Lamb to address another need and then look for a third base alternative (or move Drury to the hot corner).  Speculating further, the D’Backs could also try packaging Lamb and Tomas as a way of getting at least some of Tomas’ contract off the books.

Hazen decided against cleaning house in his first offseason as Arizona’s GM, and his relatively quiet winter was rewarded by a postseason trip.  A busier offseason seems to be on the horizon now, however, as while Hazen is still looking to better position the team for the future, there is more pressure to win in the aftermath of 2017’s good results.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A lengthy rebuild for the Royals culminated in consecutive World Series appearances and a 2015 championship, but competitive cycles are an ever-present reality for smaller- and mid-market clubs, and the Kansas City organization now faces what will likely be a franchise-altering offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Danny Duffy, LHP: $60MM through 2021
  • Ian Kennedy, RHP: $49MM through 2020
  • Alex Gordon, OF: $44MM through 2019 (includes $4MM buyout of 2020 mutual option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $43.5MM through 2021
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH: $12MM through 2020 (may opt into arbitration this offseason but is unlikely to do so)
  • Jason Hammel, RHP: $11MM through 2018 (includes $2MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Joakim Soria, RHP: $10MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Brandon Moss, 1B/DH: $8.25MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Drew Butera, C: $2.3MM through 2018

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll outlook]

A year ago at this time, I noted that the Royals would be facing some tough decisions on their longtime core of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis. With each of that group set to hit free agency after the 2017 campaign, it was a virtual impossibility that the Royals could retain them all. Kansas City took definitive action with two of the six, locking Duffy up on a franchise-record deal for a pitcher while trading Davis to the Cubs in the hope that former super-prospect Jorge Soler could blossom in a new setting. (Thus far, it has not worked.)

The other four remained with the club as GM Dayton Moore and his staff eyed one more run at a postseason berth with the core that brought baseball back to life in K.C. The Royals were in possession of a Wild Card spot at the trade deadline and had just watched the former first-place Twins drop six of seven games. Moore acted decisively, operating as a buyer rather than selling off Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas for prospects.

The GM has drawn his share of flak for that, but he’d almost certainly have been widely criticized for selling while in possession of a playoff spot had he moved his veteran core. That’d send an awful message to fans, and the city would’ve been left wondering what might’ve been when the team plummeted in the standings. That outcome, unfortunately, came to fruition for the Royals in spite of acquiring Melky Cabrera, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. While Cabrera and Cahill have departed for free agency, both Maurer and Buchter can remain on hand as longer-term pieces in the bullpen.

In addition to whatever value Maurer and Buchter provide in future seasons, Kansas City will quite likely recoup three picks in the 30 to 35 range of next year’s draft if Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas all sign elsewhere. That will give them one of the largest bonus pools to work with in the amateur draft — a nice consolation prize and a good start on restocking a farm system that was depleted by trades for Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist and others over the course of the Royals’ impressive run of success.

While it can’t be entirely ruled out that the Royals bring back one of their departing stars — they’re reportedly most focused on Hosmer and Moustakas — it’s also difficult to see how they’d fit into a crowded payroll picture. Agent Scott Boras figures to pitch owner David Glass on the importance of both Hosmer and Moustakas not only to the on-field unit but also to the clubhouse and to the fanbase. Whether that argument carries weight with ownership remains to be seen.

Hosmer is a polarizing free agent due to his inconsistencies at the plate and the disconnect between scouts’ positive valuation of his defense and his substandard defensive metrics. He has at times been one of the better-looking hitters in the American League but has also yet to string together consecutive excellent seasons. He won his fourth Gold Glove this season but also posted one of the worst Defensive Runs Saved totals of any first baseman.

The Royals are said to love Hosmer, though, and he’s been one of the faces of the franchise as the team has returned to prominence in the AL. It’s possible that ownership ultimately views him as a special exception and fits him into the payroll, though doing so would eat up the majority of the Royals’ resources while only addressing one spot on a roster that is teeming with question marks.

Recent reports have suggested that the Royals are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances of retaining any of that trio, though. If it ultimately proves that all three sign elsewhere, it’d open a number of doors for Moore and his staff as they ask themselves whether to take aim at another playoff pursuit in 2018 or to set their sights on a return to contention a couple of years down the line.

The Royals have little in the way of short-term assets that they could sell off for prospects. Late-inning relievers Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria would appeal to contenders, but both are fairly expensive and come with just one year of control. (Soria technically has two, but the second year is a mutual option, which is almost never exercised by both parties.) Brandon Moss and Jason Hammel each struggled in the first season of their respective two-year deals in 2017; Moss surely comes with negative trade value, while the best the Royals may be able to hope with regard to Hammel is that his 180 innings and respectable FIP convince a competitor to take a decent chunk of his salary off their hands.

If Kansas City deems, then, that a full rebuild is necessary, it’d have to face the tough scenarios of marketing longer-term assets in trades. Left-hander Danny Duffy, who has four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, would be one of the top starting pitchers on the trade market and could fetch multiple quality prospects and/or an MLB-ready young talent. Few teams are aggressively seeking starting catchers, but dangling the remaining four years of Perez’s contract would cause some teams to rethink their catching situations. And late-blooming star Whit Merrifield, controlled all the way through 2022, would be of immediate interest to teams in need of infield upgrades.

That said, the American League Central isn’t an intimidating division at present, with both the White Sox and Tigers rebuilding. Rather than a full rebuild, it seems likelier that Kansas City could look to operate similarly to the 2016-17 offseason. Herrera and/or Soria could be marketed as a means of acquiring some young talent and shedding payroll while still largely attempting to field a competitive unit. After all, both Duffy and Perez would come with substantial value whether marketed now, next summer or next offseason. With that in mind, the Royals may well look to shorter-term solutions at affordable rates as they wait for Moss, Hammel and albatross deals for Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon to come off the books.

In the outfield, the Royals will have little choice but to hope that Gordon can somewhat return to form in the third season of a four-year, $72MM contract that has proven disastrous thus far. Jorge Bonifacio’s .255/.320/.432 output and 17 homers this past season could get him a full season’s worth of at-bats in right field, and the Royals at some point likely feel they need to see what they have in Jorge Soler — be it as a DH or an outfielder. Paulo Orlando and Terrance Gore remain on the 40-man roster, but at this point there’s little reason to believe that either can hit enough to command regular playing time in the Majors. Bubba Starling represents another 40-man option, but he posted a dismal .303 OBP in 80 games at Triple-A last year. Billy Burns gives Kansas City another option for a reserve role.

All of that is to say, there’s probably room for at least one outfield addition. Cameron Maybin has already been reported as a potential option, and there’s a natural on-paper fit for Jarrod Dyson to return to the Royals as a free agent. If the Royals are willing to spend a bit more, then Carlos Gomez could be brought in to play center field and likely provide more offense than any of the previously mentioned outfield candidates.

The infield is also rife with options but littered with uncertainty. Merrifield will absolutely hold down a starting spot after hitting .288/.324/.460 with 19 homers and a league-leading 34 steals. The rest of the infield is anyone’s guess. Assistant GM J.J. Picollo recently told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that some combination of Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier could man the infield corners in 2018 if neither Hosmer nor Moustakas is retained. Moss will be on hand as a first-base/DH option, unless the Royals can find a taker for his salary (a daunting task in a market with so many left-handed corner bats already available). Young Raul Mondesi Jr. will likely be given the opportunity to prove his mettle at shortstop.

As is the case in the outfield, though, there’s enough uncertainty here that the Royals could add a veteran without completely blocking the paths of all their young but unproven options. Logan Morrison has already stated that it’d be a “dream come true” to play in front of his family for his hometown Royals. The Royals could once again try to wait out the first-base market as they did last winter, hoping to land a bat at a discount rate, as the supply again looks to outstrip the demand for such players.

It’s a similar situation at shortstop; as intriguing as Mondesi may be, it’d be hard not to take a look at Zack Cozart if his market remains in the three-year range. At a certain point, he represents a notable value play even if he “blocks” a shortstop option. Furthermore, Merrifield could theoretically be moved to third base or left field if the team wished to get Mondesi or prospect Nicky Lopez a look at second base.

On the pitching front, the Royals will enter the year with Duffy, Hammel, Kennedy, Jake Junis and Nate Karns penciled into the rotation — at least as things currently stand. Certainly, there’s room for another addition. Junis has yet to log a full big league season, while Karns is returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Duffy, Hammel and Kennedy have all had injuries in recent seasons as well, and no club can expect to navigate a full season with just five starters. Eric Skoglund and Sam Gaviglio are nice depth pieces, but there’s room for the Royals to add either a bounceback candidate or a solid innings eater. Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz and Brett Anderson are among the rebound candidates available, while Jaime Garcia, Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey and Doug Fister are among the names that could be counted on for some back-of-the-rotation innings.

The bullpen, too, should give the Royals ample room to make some opportunistic additions later in the offseason. It’d be unwise to jump early and beat the market for a top-tier reliever, but there are always a few arms expected to receive hefty multi-year deals that ultimately settle for more reasonable one- and two-year pacts. It’s next to impossible to accurately forecast which arms will be left out in the cold, so to speak, but the Royals’ in-between status heading into the 2018 season likely affords them the luxury of waiting to find out.

Kansas City opened the 2017 season with a franchise-record $143MM payroll and brought that number closer to $150MM by the end of the season. With Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain all potentially departing, it’s hard to imagine owner David Glass green-lighting anything beyond that 2017 Opening Day mark. The Royals currently project to have around $129MM on next year’s books, though potential trades of Herrera, Soria, Hammel or Moss would impact that number. Assuming there’s no exception made for one of the big three free agents, then, Kansas City could have somewhere in $10-20MM worth of available funds to add to the 2018 roster (again, contingent on moving at least one veteran’s contract).

It’s not an enormous amount to play with, but the Royals have made a habit of backloading contracts and effectively utilizing mutual options as an accounting tactic to defer the guaranteed salary on a contract. That strategy could again allow the team to pursue some veterans on two- and three-year commitments this offseason.

The Royals are highly unlikely to enter the 2018 season as any kind of division favorite. However, the fact that they’re in a division with two all-out rebuilders and have their most appealing trade assets controlled for another four years makes a compelling case for Kansas City to sell short-term assets and make mid-range commitments in an effort to hang around in 2018. If that plan fails to pan out, they’ll still be able to fall back on dealing their most palatable chips down the road and embarking on a more aggressive rebuild.

Extending Shohei Ohtani

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If Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani signs with an MLB team, perhaps in the new year, he’ll be limited to a minor league deal.  The most Ohtani could receive is $3.535MM from the Rangers, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press.  The Yankees and Twins are able to offer similar amounts.  The Pirates, Marlins, and Mariners can offer $1.5MM or more.  Everyone else is capped below $1MM, all the way down to the Indians and Rockies at $10K each.

The assumption is that these differences will not matter much to Ohtani, who might be leaving $200MM on the table by attempting to come to MLB now instead of in two years.  He’s already banked millions of dollars from his NPB career, and he would earn the MLB minimum of $545K as a rookie.

It is also true that if Ohtani wants to lock down life-changing money, he would be able to do so with little or no MLB experience.  Ohtani’s team can sign him to an extension at any time, as long as the extension wasn’t discussed as an inducement to sign him in the first place.  Three players have signed extensions with fewer than 30 days of big league service time:

  • The Rays signed Evan Longoria in April 2008 to a six-year, $17.5MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Longoria had six days of MLB service.
  • The Rays signed Matt Moore in December 2011 to a five-year, $14MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Moore had 17 days of big league service.
  • The Astros signed Jonathan Singleton in June 2014 to a five-year, $10MM deal that included three club options, one of which covered a potential free agent year.  Singleton’s extension coincided with his big league promotion, meaning he signed with no big league service.

Ohtani’s NPB experience could stand in for the extensive minor league experience that justified these contract extensions.  I think a team could offer $20-25MM to Ohtani in April without sounding alarm bells at MLB’s offices.  Ohtani’s team would already control him for six years, or even close to seven years if they’re willing to keep him in the minors for a few weeks as the Cubs did with Kris Bryant.  So the incentive for a team to offer an extension would be gaining control over some of Ohtani’s potential free agent years.  One can imagine that the player’s agent would advise against this, but it is a way Ohtani could guarantee himself good money right out of the gate.  It is possible, too, that the agent could attempt to play with the structure established by Longoria, Moore, and Singleton.  For example, Singleton’s contract covered only one potential free agent year, with a club option for $13MM.  What if Ohtani made the same concession, but with an option price of $20MM or more?

Other players, such as Salvador Perez, Chris Archer, and Tim Anderson, signed extensions with service time ranging from 50 to 156 days.  Those deals topped out at Anderson’s $25MM, signed last March.  If Ohtani waits until he has one year of Major League service time, the ceiling on a reasonable extension increases quite a bit.  Four such players — Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons — signed for $40MM or more guaranteed.  Simmons is tops in the one-plus service class, with a seven-year, $58MM deal.  After one decent year in MLB, Ohtani should be able to sign an extension worth $60MM or more.

As for that monster deal that would have been a lock if Ohtani waited until he was a true free agent?  That probably becomes an option if he logs two successful years in the Majors.  Mike Trout signed for $144.5MM over six years, while Buster Posey inked a deal worth $159MM over eight years.  It is entirely conceivable that Ohtani could come to the Majors now and sign a $200MM extension in March of 2020.  Granted, he would need to play like an MLB superstar over the 2018-19 seasons to make that possible.  But to reach those heights in a true MLB free agent bidding war in the 2019-20 offseason, he would have needed to continue at a very high level in NPB anyway.  Viewed in that light, Ohtani’s decision to jump to MLB this winter at perhaps his peak ability doesn’t seem so crazy.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

As they enter the latter stages of their rebuild, the Padres have reasons for optimism. Coming off of their ninth losing season of the past decade, that might be hard to believe. But this 71-win team probably had no business winning more than 60, which speaks volumes of the job that manager Andy Green is doing. General manager A.J. Preller and the front office have stockpiled an abundance of impressive prospects through trades, international signings and the amateur draft. As a result, the farm system might be as deep and talented as it’s ever been — and is beginning to pay dividends at the MLB level.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wil Myers, 1B: $66MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout for $20MM club option in 2023)
  • Clayton Richard, SP: $6MM through 2019
  • Yangervis Solarte, INF: $4.75MM through 2018 (includes $750K buyout for $5.5MM club option in 2019; contract also includes $8MM club option in 2020 with a $750K buyout)
  • Travis Wood, SP/RP: $750K through 2019 (includes $750K buyout for $8MM mutual option in 2019; Royals are paying all of Wood’s 2018 salary and half of the $1.5MM buyout in 2019)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[San Diego Padres Depth Chart | San Diego Padres Payroll Outlook]

Although there is still over $40MM due to players no longer on the team, payroll has been stripped down to include almost no guaranteed money in 2017 and beyond. The Padres’ estimated 2018 payroll, including projections for non-guaranteed contracts, is hovering around $50MM. Only the Phillies are lower, according to Roster Resource. In all likelihood, they should be able to spend much more than last offseason, when they committed a total of $10.9MM in free agency to sign four starting pitchers, shortstop Erick Aybar and reliever Craig Stammen.

That doesn’t mean that they’ll sign Eric Hosmer, who the team has discussed internally, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. But their interest is an indication that they might be willing to sign a top free agent under the right circumstances. Hosmer is only entering his age-28 season and expected to command a contract that is at least five years in length. If he’s convinced that the Padres are a team on the rise and on a road to contend by 2019, he could be willing to sign on. Acquiring Giancarlo Stanton is another move that, while unlikely, isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility. If they were willing to take on a good-sized portion of Stanton’s contract, the Padres’ stockpile of talent would surely entice the Marlins — though they’d still have to convince him to approve of the swap.

While Hosmer and Stanton are both long shots, it’s important to present those two cases in order to point out that the Padres are in good shape payroll-wise and have the trade chips to go after some of the best players in the game. It just might not happen this offseason.

A more likely scenario is that they’ll continue to focus on letting their young players develop together while adding some reasonably-priced veterans to fill voids on the roster and bring leadership to the clubhouse.

In 2017, several young players were given an opportunity to prove themselves. As would be expected, the results were mixed and there were plenty of peaks and valleys along the way. It didn’t go as well as the Padres had hoped, though, at least not offensively, or else hitting coach Alan Zinter wouldn’t have been fired with a month to go in the season. New hitting coach Matt Stairs will be tasked with helping the team’s young group of hitters progress and avoid the extended slumps that happened far too often. 

Austin Hedges hit 18 home runs in his first full MLB season and is already considered to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game, making it easier for the Padres to live with his .214 batting average and .262 on-base percentage. Nevertheless, they’ll be hoping that the 25-year-old can become a much more disciplined hitter. Pairing him with a respected veteran like A.J. Ellis could help with his development.

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After signing a franchise-record $83MM contract extension prior to the season, Wil Myers did not take the leap from very good player to superstar. He did have 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but the 26-year-old finished with a .243/.328/.464 slash line — disappointing for a first baseman — and also struggled defensively after looking very comfortable at the position in 2016.

A move back to the outfield for Myers isn’t out of the question, as it would allow the team to take advantage of a saturated market for first basemen—Lucas Duda or Mitch Moreland would be cheap one-year options. An already-crowded outfield picture makes it unlikely, though.

Between Yangervis Solarte, Carlos Asuaje and Cory Spangenberg, the Padres are in pretty good shape at second and third base. Former Cubs prospect Christian Villanueva, who was impressive during a September call-up (11-for-32, 4 HR), could also get a look at the hot corner.

There should be enough at-bats to go around, so it’s doubtful that the team will trade Solarte just to open up more playing time for the others. However, the switch-hitter should draw plenty of trade interest. With his team-friendly contract and ability to play all four infield spots, the 30-year-old switch-hitter is an excellent fit on several contending teams. Those attributes, in addition to his leadership skills, also make him a great fit in San Diego, though.

While Solarte didn’t look terrible during his 24 starts at shortstop in 2017, he’s not likely to get an extended look at the position. The Opening Day starter is widely expected to be someone who is either acquired via trade or signed as a free agent this offseason. Zack Cozart, Alcides Escobar, J.J. Hardy and Jose Reyes are all free agent possibilities, while Freddy Galvis, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Iglesias, Jurickson Profar and Jonathan Villar are potential trade targets.

MLBTR predicts that the Padres will sign Cozart, the top free agent shortstop available, to a three-year, $42MM deal. With only a handful of teams in need of a shortstop, perhaps it wouldn’t be too shocking if the 32-year-old got only two years and a few million dollars less per season than our projection, which would help the Padres’ case. But if they really want to ensure that they can adequately fill what has been a revolving door of disappointment, they might not want to wait around too long in hopes of the price coming down. The bigger question is whether Cozart would want to sign with a team that isn’t quite ready to contend, even if he believes that they are a headed in the right direction.

The Padres will also have two of the best prospects in baseball playing shortstop in the upper minors in 2018, with Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. likely to man the position in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Neither player is expected to make the full-time jump to the Majors until at least early 2019. And even then, Urias is probably a better fit at second base and Tatis, if necessary, could slide over to third base. Of course, the Pads would also have the option of sliding any new veteran acquisition to another spot in the future to accommodate the youngsters.

Coming off of a strong rookie season, Manuel Margot is locked in as the team’s center fielder for the foreseeable future. The corner spots aren’t set in stone, although Jose Pirela should have the inside track for the left field job after an impressive 83-game stint in 2017. While it was obvious that the converted infielder has some work to do defensively, the transition had no effect on his hitting as he slashed .288/.347/.490 with 10 homers and 25 doubles in 344 plate appearances.

Hunter Renfroe is the leading candidate to be the starting right fielder, but the job is not his to lose. His power potential is huge—he hit 26 homers, breaking the team’s rookie record—and he has one of the strongest throwing arms in baseball. But unlike Hedges, who can get away with his offensive deficiencies to some extent because of his plus defense as a catcher, Renfroe will not continue to get regular at-bats if he’s only reaching base at a .284 clip and striking out 29% of the time as he did in 2017. The 25-year-old learned that when was demoted to Triple-A in mid-August. He responded, however, with a strong showing during his month in the Minors followed by an impressive return to the big leagues in mid-September. He hit a three-run homer in his first at-bat after his promotion and then had a three-homer game two days later.

Renfroe should face some stiff competition if Alex Dickerson returns to health after missing all of 2017 with a back injury. The left-handed batter slashed .255/.333/.455 with 10 homers in 285 plate appearances during his first extended look in the Majors back in 2016. He’s not a very good outfielder, but the Padres could use his bat in the middle of the order.

Franchy Cordero isn’t quite ready to contribute, as evidenced by his struggles as a 22-year-old rookie (6 BB, 44 K in 99 plate appearances). But he could force his way into the picture if he continues to tear the cover off the ball in Triple-A, where he posted a .972 OPS with 17 homers, 21 doubles, 18 triples and 15 stolen bases. Matt Szczur and Travis Jankowski are also in the mix, although both are likely ticketed for part-time roles. Both players could draw trade interest from teams in search of a fourth outfielder.

The Padres needed some semi-reliable innings-eaters at a very minimal cost in 2017 and they couldn’t have done much better than Jhoulys Chacin (180 1/3 IP, 16 quality starts) and Clayton Richard (197 1/3 IP, 14 quality starts), who both signed one-year, $1.75MM deals prior to the season. Even Trevor Cahill, who signed for the same amount, pitched effectively (when healthy) prior to being traded to the Royals in July.

Richard is already back in the fold after signing a two-year, $6MM contract extension in September and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team makes a strong effort to retain Chacin. They’ll have plenty of competition with starting pitchers in high demand and not many good ones available. But the Padres should be able to make a fairly competitive offer while also hoping that Chacin’s success at Petco Park—he was 9-3 with a 1.79 ERA in 16 home starts—will give them an edge if they’re not the highest bidder.

Cahill, a San Diego native, is also a candidate to return, as is Tyson Ross, who might have his best shot at returning to form under Darren Balsley’s tutelage. Ex-Padres won’t be the only pitchers interested in working with Balsley, who is entering his 16th season as the team’s pitching coach. Chris Tillman, Hector Santiago and Yovani Gallardo are just a few of a long list of free agent pitchers looking to rebuild their value.

Unlike last season, when it was necessary to bring in four veteran starters to fill out the rotation—Jered Weaver was the only one of the group who didn’t pitch well—the team is in much better shape heading into 2018. Dinelson Lamet was very good during his rookie campaign, flashing frontline starter ability on occasion, while sinker-baller Luis Perdomo looks to have solidified a spot in the back of the team’s rotation. Lefty Matt Strahm, the key return in the six-player trade with Kansas City in July, will compete for a rotation spot along with Robbie Erlin and Colin Rea, each of whom should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.

A wave of top starting pitching prospects could also begin to arrive in the Majors by mid-season. Cal Quantrill, the eighth pick in the 2016 draft, along with Logan Allen, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi and Jacob Nix, are all expected to begin the season in either Double-A or Triple-A. It wouldn’t be a surprise if any one of them is knocking down the door to the big leagues at some point in 2018. Another wave of what is likely an even more impressive group of starting pitchers could begin to arrive in 2019. Help appears to be on the way.

Surprisingly, top reliever Brad Hand remained with the Padres past the trade deadline. He took full advantage of his first opportunity as a closer, posting a 2.15 ERA with a 12.1 K/9 and 19 saves in 21 chances after taking on the gig in late July. As teams got every last bit out of their top relievers in the post-season, it was clear that a lefty who is capable of pitching multiple innings and dominating against both right-handed and left-handed hitters is extremely valuable for any playoff team. In fact, Hand’s price tag might’ve gone up since July. Preller should get plenty of strong offers and he’s not likely to pass on the chance to cash in on an elite reliever at what is likely to be peak value.

If Hand is traded, the Padres will almost certainly be in the market for a veteran closer who can hold down the fort for a few months before being flipped to a contender prior to the trade deadline. Former Padres Huston Street and Fernando Rodney would be low-cost options.

The group of Padres relievers expected to bridge the gap to the closer is a bit on the inexperienced side, but they were a big reason why the team was much better than expected in 2017 and highly competitive, for the most part. Kirby Yates (14.1 K/9, 20 holds) and Phil Maton (9.6 K/9, 8 holds) were effective as the team’s primary setup men, while lefties Jose Torres, Buddy Baumann and Kyle McGrath all pitched well down the stretch. The team would gladly welcome Craig Stammen back, but he is likely to parlay his strong season into a multi-year deal with a contender.

If Carter Capps can ever come close to returning to his pre-injury form, the Padres will have themselves another late-inning option. He did not look very good over a year-and-a-half removed from Tommy John surgery and now he’ll need to bounce back from his September surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Strahm could also factor into the late-inning mix if he doesn’t win a rotation spot. As a rookie in 2016, he looked very comfortable in a relief role for the Royals, posting a 1.23 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 21 innings.

Even with a successful offseason, the best-case scenario for the 2018 Padres is probably no better than a .500 record. And that’s fine. It’s another step in the right direction. For proof that a successful rebuild takes patience, look no further than the World Champion Houston Astros. They endured six consecutive losing seasons from 2009-2014, including three consecutive years with at least 106 losses. General manager Jeff Luhnow began the rebuild immediately after he was hired following the 2011 season. The expectation was that they’d be bad for a few seasons. And they were. Four years later, though, he had his team in the playoffs. Six years later, they were celebrating their first World Series title. They are also set up to be perennial playoff contenders.

If the Padres can stay the course, it’s not a stretch to think that they could follow a similar path.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Eduardo Nunez

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On the heels of the two best seasons of his career, journeyman Eduardo Nunez ranks as one of the top infielders available in free agency. Nunez, 30, played for a pair of teams in each of those seasons, so landing a multiyear contract would presumably give him some stability going forward.

Pros/Strengths

Eduardo Nunez

Nunez made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, but it took him until 2015, when he was a member of the Twins, to truly break out at the plate. While no one would call Nunez an offensive force, the right-handed hitter did post an above-average .296/.332/.443 line with 28 home runs in 1,290 plate appearances over the previous three seasons. Nunez was at his best in 2017, slashing .313/.341/.460 with 12 homers in 491 PAs between San Francisco and Boston. And when he got on base from 2016-17, Nunez was a legitimate threat, with 64 stolen bases (40 in ’16) and a 4.9 BsR.

Although strikeouts have become more and more prevalent over the years (there were a record 40,104 Ks in 2017), Nunez hasn’t really contributed to the trend. His lifetime strikeout rate is a meager 13 percent, and he only fanned a career-best 11 percent of the time last season. The rest of the league went down on strikes in 2017 at an average of 21.6 percent, and it made contact at a 77.5 percent clip. Nunez logged a much stronger 83.8 percent contact rate and sits at 85.5 percent for his career. He clearly excels at putting the ball in play, which is especially important for someone whose game is largely predicated on speed.

On the defensive side, Nunez’s value comes from his versatility. Most of his career has been spent at shortstop (270 games) and third base (255), but he played a personal-high 26 contests at second base with the Red Sox last season. He also has 49 games’ worth of outfield experience on his resume.

Weaknesses/Cons

While flexibility in the field is an obvious asset, Nunez isn’t really a well-regarded defender. His stint at the keystone in 2017 didn’t yield great results (minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-9.1 UZR/150), nor has he been a plus fielder at any other position during his career. In fairness to Nunez, though, he was hardly unplayable from 2016-17 at his primary spot – third base – combining for minus-2 DRS and a minus-0.3 UZR over nearly 1,100 innings.

Offensively, despite Nunez’s respectable output of late, there are some concerns. He seldom walks, for one, with a career rate of 4.9 percent. He checked in at 3.7 percent this past year, ranking seventh last among hitters who amassed at least 400 at-bats. And though Nunez still managed to finish 2017 with a .348 weighted on-base average, easily bettering the .321 league mean, Statcast’s xwOBA metric suggests it was far from legitimate. Among 183 hitters with at least 400 ABs, Nunez had the greatest disparity (a 73-point gap) between his wOBA and xwOBA (.275). The latter figure ranked eighth worst in the majors. Additionally, Nunez carries a weak .133 ISO for his career and registered a .148 in that category last season, falling well below the .171 league average. Of course, Nunez’s speed somewhat helps make up for the fact that he doesn’t pack a wallop, as he posted the league’s 23rd-highest infield hit rate last season (10.5 percent; league average was 6.6 percent). For his career, Nunez has reached via the infield single at a 9.6 percent clip.

Even if Nunez sustains his production over the next couple years, history suggests his availability could come into question. Nunez spent time on the disabled list in four of the five prior seasons, including in 2017 when he missed parts of June and July with a hamstring injury and most of September with a sprained PCL in his right knee. Nunez returned for the playoffs, but he left Game 1 of Boston’s ALDS matchup against Houston after aggravating that knee, causing him to miss the remainder of the series.

Background

Nunez is a native of the Dominican Republic who signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2004. Since then, he has been part of three trades – going from the Yankees to the Twins in 2014, the Twins to the Giants in 2016 and the Giants to the BoSox last season. A client of ISE Baseball, Nunez has collected more than $8.75MM in his career, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Market

Nunez hasn’t been part of any rumors early this offseason, but a return to the Red Sox could make sense with starting second baseman Dustin Pedroia likely to miss the first couple months of 2018 after undergoing knee surgery. But if Nunez is looking for a season’s worth of full-time work, he might be able to find it with several teams that should be on the hunt for a second baseman and/or a third bagger, including the Giants, Mets, Braves, Angels, Brewers and Blue Jays.

Expected Contract

MLBTR predicts Nunez will land a two-year, $14MM deal, which would represent a nice raise over the $4.2MM he earned in 2017.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Jeff Todd took a comprehensive look at the trade market for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, whom the payroll-slashing club looks primed to ship out on the heels of his 59-home run season. Jeff laid out reasons why acquiring the high-priced NL MVP finalist would and would not make sense for 15 major league teams.
  • Fellow Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna could also end up on the move this winter, inspiring Kyle Downing to seek a logical fit via trade for the 26-year-old standout.
  • As small-market teams, the Twins and Brewers aren’t known for spending big on free agents, but Steve Adams explained why this winter could be the ideal time for both clubs to make bold moves.
  • Six teams made qualifying offers to free agents prior to the Nov. 5 deadline. Tim Dierkes subsequently examined draft pick compensation for those teams if they lose those players. In another piece, he detailed which draft picks each club would lose by signing a free agent who rejected a QO.
  • The latest editions of this year’s Offseason Outlook series focused on the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins and Rockies.
  • In the first of two polls at MLBTR this week, I asked readers whether the Dodgers will trade catcher Yasmani Grandal this offseason. Then, Kyle wondered which high-profile prospect is most likely to be dealt in the coming months. He listed the Nationals’ Victor Robles, the Astros’ Kyle Tucker, the Indians’ duo of Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie, and the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo as possibilities.
  • Although Mike Moustakas will probably land a much richer contract than fellow third baseman Todd Frazier in free agency, I made a case that the latter could wind up as the better signing.

Free Agent Faceoff: Mike Moustakas Vs. Todd Frazier

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Teams scouring the open market for help at the hot corner would likely agree that Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier stand out as the best unsigned third basemen in the majors. This winter’s class of free agents isn’t brimming with established starters at the position, but Moustakas and Frazier are obvious exceptions, having generally served as above-average players throughout their careers. Moustakas, 29, is likely to score a much richer contract than his soon-to-be 32-year-old peer (MLBTR projects a five-year, $85MM deal for Moustakas and a three-year, $33MM pact for Frazier), though the players’ big league performances suggest that shouldn’t be the case.

Both Moustakas and Frazier were part of the same draft class, 2007, a year in which the former went second overall to the Royals and the latter came off the board 32 picks later to the Reds. Unsurprisingly, Moustakas received much more fanfare as a farmhand, ranking among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects three times (he topped out at No. 9 in 2010, while Frazier peaked at No. 43 in 2010). But since the pair debuted in 2011, Frazier has been the more productive player. As a member of three different teams – the Reds, White Sox and Yankees – Frazier has slashed .245/.321/.459 and racked up 21.2 fWAR in 3,766 plate appearances (approximately 3.3 per 600 PAs). Moustakas, a lifetime Royal to this point, has batted a more modest .251/.305/.425 with 12.1 fWAR in 3,318 trips to the plate (2.2 per 600 PAs).

Mike Moustakas

When analyzing Moustakas’ career, it would be unwise to ignore the fact that the lefty-swinger didn’t truly burst on the scene as a hitter until 2015. Teams that bid on him in free agency will expect to acquire the Moustakas they saw from 2015-17, during which he batted .279/.329/.496 across 1,325 PAs, not the 2011-14 version who limped to a .236/.290/.379 line in 1,993 trips. It’s also worth pointing out that missing nearly all of 2016 with a torn ACL took a toll on his statistical output.

Aside from that 27-game season, Moustakas has made between 136 and 149 appearances in each of his five full campaigns. In his most recent showing, Moustakas accumulated 598 PAs and slugged 38 home runs – trumping the previous career high of 22 he set in 2015 – to go with a .249 ISO (a marked improvement over his .174 lifetime figure).

Moustakas established new high-water marks as a power hitter in 2017, but he also walked a career-worst 5.7 percent of the time, thanks in part to a chase rate that climbed from 34.1 percent between 2011-16 to 40.3 percent. All told, he offered at 55.6 percent of pitches – up from 48.2 percent over the previous six years. Neither Moustakas’ more aggressive approach nor his penchant for hitting infield pop-ups (16 percent, tied for 10th worst in the majors) did him any favors in the on-base department. His .314 OBP easily fell below the .330 league average and somewhat offset his prodigious power. Still, his offensive production was a respectable 14 percent better than average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was less effective in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. In the eyes of those metrics, Moustakas has been a plus defender for the majority of his career, so a bounce back may be in order as he continues to distance himself from his serious knee injury.

Todd Frazier

Frazier, meanwhile, has been a paragon of consistency since his rookie campaign, 2012, the only one of his full seasons in which he appeared in fewer than 147 games. Frazier has been an above-average player every year dating back to then, having notched seasonal fWARs ranging from 2.5 (2016) to 4.8 (2014), and his defensive work has played a role in that. He thrived in the field during a 3.0-fWAR 2017, tallying 10 DRS and a 6.7 UZR. Only once (in 2016) has Frazier logged negative numbers in those categories.

Frazier is better known for his offense than his glove, of course, and he contributed a quality .213/.344/.428 line (108 wRC+) with 27 homers and a .215 ISO in 576 attempts in 2017. As was the case with Moustakas, Frazier hit a boatload of infield flies – a league-worst 18.5 percent, in fact – which helps explain his unsightly batting average. Although Frazier is only a lifetime .245 hitter, the right-hander has never been worse than an average offensive producer in any season, according to wRC+. With 131 homers since 2014, most of Frazier’s offensive value has come from his power, but his patience trended in the right direction last season. Frazier was more selective than usual, with a chase rate of 25 percent (compared to 34 percent from 2011-16) and a swing rate of 40.2 percent (down from 49.2 percent over the prior six seasons), leading to a career-best 14.4 percent walk rate that shattered the previous personal high (9.2) he put up in 2016.

In addition to marketing Frazier’s two-way reliability to third base-needy teams (the Giants, Mets, Braves and Angels, to name a few), his reps at CAA Sports are sure to note that he won’t cost draft pick compensation to sign. That’s not the case with Moustakas, a Scott Boras client who will reject the Royals’ qualifying offer by the Nov. 16 deadline. While Moustakas is a fine player who’s still on the right side of 30, there are legitimate reasons to believe the team that signs Frazier will end up more satisfied with its investment.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.

The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.

Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals

The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.

Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros

Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.

Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians

Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.

Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians

After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.

Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers

The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.

What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)

Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 33.90% (4,669 votes)
None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 24.80% (3,415 votes)
Victor Robles (Nationals) 12.52% (1,724 votes)
Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12.05% (1,659 votes)
Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9.30% (1,281 votes)
Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7.43% (1,023 votes)
Total Votes: 13,771

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rockies made their triumphant return to the postseason, but bowed out after dropping the Wild Card play-in game. Overcoming the Dodgers in the NL West will be a tall order, and the Rox face several roster questions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $62MM through 2021 (includes buyout of club option for 2022)
  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $17.75MM through 2018 (also controllable via arbitration in 2019)
  • Mike Dunn, RP: $15MM through 2019 (includes buyout of club option for 2020)
  • Gerardo Parra, OF: $10MM through 2018
  • Adam Ottavino, RP: $7MM through 2018

Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart; Colorado Rockies Payroll]

There are some needs here, but also some resources. Colorado’s payroll has ramped up rather noticeably in the past three seasons, going from $97MM to $112MM and then up to $127MM. As things stand, the team’s 2018 guarantees plus anticipated arb costs add up to about $90MM. Thus, even if there’s no further boost — that’s still unclear — GM Jeff Bridich could have nearly $40MM of open payroll to play around with.

Where, then, do the needs lie? The most noticeable hole, perhaps, is at the back of the bullpen. Greg Holland proved a worthwhile free agent acquisition last winter, though incentives drove his one-year cost up to a healthy $15MM (from an initial $6MM salary). He gave up the chance at another $15MM payday and is expected to decline a $17.4MM qualifying offer, preferring instead to return to free agency. With live-armed lefty Jake McGee and midseason acquisition Pat Neshek also reaching the open market, the Rox will lose a large portion of the their late-inning firepower.

Aug 18, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy (21) and relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) celebrate the win over the at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado could pursue some or all of its own free agents, and perhaps it’s reasonable to anticipate that to a point. It certainly seems that both Holland and the team are fond of one another, but he’s going to cost a bundle and comes with all the risks one might imagine would accompany a soon-to-be 32-year-old reliever that recently underwent elbow surgery. The Rockies have a few power arms on hand, including Adam Ottavino and youngsters such as Carlos Estevez, but it’s difficult to imagine any being entrusted with the ninth inning. If Holland can’t be had, then, it’s possible to imagine Bridich checking into the trade market or shopping from among a variety of late-inning arms. Some free-agent hurlers have significant closing experience, such as Addison Reed and Steve Cishek, while others have arguably shown enough to deserve such an opportunity. Among the interesting names on the market are the veteran control artist Neshek, former Rockies hurler Juan Nicasio, and Brandon Morrow. Even if the club lands a big closer, it could consider those and other options as it seeks additional setup options. The team has two southpaws with Mike Dunn and Chris Rusin, but another righty late-inning arm would be welcome.

The fact that there are some openings shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that the pitching staff isn’t in a good place. In fact, the rotation looks solid enough that it could distribute some spare arms to the ’pen if the team enjoys good health fortune. Though Tyler Chatwood is on his way out, the Rockies have compiled a group of solid hurlers behind staff ace Jon Gray. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, and Chad Bettis are all but certainties for rotation spots so long as they are healthy. Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman faded late, while Tyler Anderson struggled early and closed strong, but all three could compete for the final job out of camp. Those that fall shy will bolster the relief corps or remains stretched out at Triple-A for depth. It’s conceivable that the Rockies could add another veteran pitcher to this mix, but hardly necessary; it’s more likely, perhaps, that the club will sign a swingman type for the pen and/or add a veteran or two on low-commitment minors deals.

One way to squeeze value out of an existing pitching staff is to improve the catching situation, and that figures to be an area of focus for Colorado. Tony Wolters slid offensively last year, while Tom Murphy struggled through an injury-limited campaign. Mid-season acquisition Jonathan Lucroy shored things up once he arrived and looks to be a strong candidate for a return. Lucroy is already 31 years of age and comes with some questions after lagging at the plate and in the framing department in the first half of 2017. But he has been one of the game’s best receivers for some time now and rebounded upon his arrival in Colorado. Now, he’s a known quantity who would fill a clear need. Other open-market options include Alex Avila and Welington Castillo.

Otherwise, half of the lineup is fixed. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, shortstop Trevor Story, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, and center fielder Charlie Blackmon are all everyday players. The only offseason questions facing this group relate to the possibility of new contracts. Blackmon and LeMahieu are each entering their walk years, while Arenado is just one season behind them. It’s possible to imagine the Rockies exploring long-term arrangements with any of these players, but getting something done will likely require an uncomfortable contractual commitment — especially with Arenado and Blackmon, who are among the very most productive players in the game. The former is still just 26 and could reasonably point to the Giancarlo Stanton extension as a comp; the latter is already 31, thus limiting his contractual upside, but could legitimately seek a four-year promise at a premium rate of pay to forego a shot at free agency. Story, meanwhile, seems safe in his job for now but doesn’t look like an extension candidate at this point given his strikeout problems and the presence of the fast-rising Brendan Rodgers.

That brings us to the potential moving parts on the position-player side of things: first base, the corner outfield, and the bench. There are options here, though it’s also possible the Rockies will take a fairly simple path to rounding things out.

Ian Desmond was supposed to slot in at first last year, a quizzical decision from the start that only looked worse as the season wore on. Desmond struggled at the plate upon returning from injury and ultimately ceded first base to Mark Reynolds, who is now again a free agent. Ultimately, Desmond played mostly in the corner outfield, and it seems likely the versatile veteran will be penciled in there to open the year. Colorado can do little but hope that he follows the path of Gerardo Parra, who surged after a disappointing first season after joining the club as a free agent. Those two could serve to occupy a major portion of the time flanking Blackmon. Meanwhile, the Rockies have a slate of other outfield possibilities on hand. Left-handed hitters Raimel Tapia, Mike Tauchman, and David Dahl are all on the 40-man. Each has shown quite a bit of promise at times but also comes with questions of varying kind and degree. The righty-swinging Noel Cuevas was also just placed on the 40-man and could compete for a job.

Put it all together, and it’s certainly possible that the Rockies already have compiled their outfield unit. Viewed that way, the offseason path is simple: salute former star Carlos Gonzalez on his way out the door and think about a plan to account for the loss of first baseman Mark Reynolds, who provided sufficient production at a bargain rate in 2017. With Pat Valaika on hand to function as a utility option, there really isn’t much to do but settle first base.

At first, there are a multitude of options. Colorado could plan to rely upon youngster Ryan McMahon, who has little to prove at Triple-A. (He has also spent time at second and third, which increases his roster utility now and in the future.) The lefty hitter might be complemented with a right-handed-hitting addition, which could come in the person of Reynolds. Despite tallying thirty home runs, it is worth noting that the 34-year-old’s overall batting productivity remained in the realm of league average, as it has been for most of the past six seasons. With quite a few other slugger types floating around in free agency, Reynolds likely won’t require a major outlay to bring back. Alternatively, the club could look to players such as Mike Napoli or Danny Valencia to join McMahon.

That is the most straightforward and cost-effective way for things to go, but hardly the only one. It’s plenty arguable that the Rockies can and should pursue a more aggressive approach — particularly with an imposing Dodgers team still dominating the division. Colorado pursued Jose Abreu as a free agent and might see a lot to like in his contractual rights. Abreu is one of the game’s better hitters; while he’s not cheap with a projected $17.9MM arbitration salary in his second-to-last arb year, that’s a cost level that won’t break the bank. And the Rockies likely have sufficient prospect depth to entice the White Sox without bankrupting their future. You can probably squint and see high-priced free agent Eric Hosmer as a fit here, particularly given Colorado’s track record of seeking reputed high-character types, and free agency also comes with a variety of other quality first basemen (most notably, the switch-hitting Carlos Santana). Conceivably, the Rockies could also even revert to their original plans with Desmond, putting him in some sort of first base/super-utility role while adding a bigger corner outfield piece instead of a first baseman.

It’s possible to imagine quite a few scenarios, really. Investing in a veteran position player, for instance, might free the Rockies to utilize young position-player assets to acquire a quality young reliever. It’s an exciting time to be a Rockies fan — though that also means expectations will be high for Bridich and his staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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