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Anthony DeSclafani

Giants Place Anthony DeSclafani, Evan Longoria On IL

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The Giants have placed Anthony DeSclafani and Evan Longoria on the IL, per a team announcement. Longoria is going on the COVID IL because of vaccine side effects, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. DeSclafani’s placement, retroactive to August 19th, is due to right ankle inflammation. The two roster spots will be taken by lefty Sammy Long and righty Jay Jackson. Additionally, Reyes Moronta was activated from his rehab assignment and optioned to Triple-A.

For Longoria, he should be able to return in a day or two, once he feels better. (The COVID IL has no minimum stay.) The loss of DeSclafani, however, is the more worrisome news for the Giants as he has been a solid member of the rotation this season. After a down year with Cincinnati in 2020, San Fran scooped him up for a one-year, $6MM deal, getting tremendous value for that outlay. Desclafani’s tally of 132 2/3 innings is second only to Kevin Gausman on the club this year. His ERA of 3.26 over that span is the 14th-best mark in all of MLB. He’s recently hit a bit of a snag, however, going on the IL for the second time this month. He endured a minimum stay starting August 4th because of shoulder fatigue and will now go back on the shelf because of this ankle inflammation.

It’s unclear how long the hurler is expected to be sidelined, but even another minimum stay will be impactful. After an off-day on Monday, the Giants will enter a stretch of playing 16 days in a row. They are also without Johnny Cueto, who recently went on the IL himself, whittling the rotation down to Gausman, Logan Webb and Alex Wood. This all comes as the Dodgers have crept up on the Giants in the standings, narrowing the gap to 1 1/2 games going into today’s action.

Sammy Long will likely slot into the rotation at some point during the next few weeks. He’s just recently been getting stretched out after his own IL stint but was able to throw five innings in his most recent Triple-A start. In eight games at the MLB level this year, four starts, he’s absorbed 28 1/3 innings with an elevated ERA of 5.72, but more a more palatable 3.84 xERA, 3.96 SIERA and 3.63 FIP.

Cueto is eligible to return at any point now, though it’s unclear if that’s expected. Without him, the club may have to turn to its depth, though that also just took a hit with Tyler Beede being placed on the 60-day IL just a few days ago. The Giant signed Matt Shoemaker to a minor league deal a few weeks back, though he’s having a nightmare season. Released by the Twins after posting an ERA north of 8.00, his time in the Giants’ org hasn’t improved things. In a small sample of three appearances with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats, his ERA is 9.45.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Giants Place Johnny Cueto On Injured List

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The Giants have placed starter Johnny Cueto on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 9, with a right flexor strain. Infielder Thairo Estrada has been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to take his place on the active roster. Cueto’s injury is minor, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group), with the team hoping he’ll return after missing just one start.

Cueto has rather quietly put together a solid season for the first-place Giants. The 35-year-old has tossed 104 innings over nineteen starts, working to a 3.89 ERA/4.22 SIERA. That’s an unexpected bounceback since the two-time All-Star struggled in 2020 after missing large chunks of the 2018 and 2019 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Cueto has seen a bit of an uptick in his swinging strike rate relative to the past few seasons, and he’s had some of the best control of any pitcher in the league. The righty’s 5.5% walk rate is fourteenth-lowest among the 78 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched this year.

With Aaron Sanchez designated for assignment over the weekend, the Giants’ rotation depth has thinned out in recent days. Anthony DeSclafani is expected to return from the IL when first eligible to start on Friday, Kapler told reporters. He’ll rejoin Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Logan Webb in the starting five. The Giants don’t have an off day until next Thursday, so they might have to turn to Sammy Long or Tyler Beede to cover for Cueto’s missed time over the next week.

Giants Activate Tommy La Stella, Place Anthony DeSclafani On Injured List

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The Giants announced they’ve reinstated infielder Tommy La Stella from the 60-day injured list (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Starter Anthony DeSclafani is going on the 10-day IL, retroactive to August 3, with right shoulder fatigue. To open 40-man roster space for La Stella, reliever Conner Menez was designated for assignment.

La Stella returns after a three month absence. He initially landed on the IL with a left hamstring strain and then suffered a right hand fracture while rehabbing. It’s been a tough first season in San Francisco for La Stella, who has thus far been limited to 75 plate appearances of .235/.297/.353 hitting. That’s far off the quietly excellent .289/.356/.471 line the lefty-swinging La Stella put up with the Angels and A’s between 2019-20.

Despite the slow start, the Giants are surely happy to have La Stella back in the lineup. San Francisco signed the 32-year-old to a three-year, $18.75MM contract over the winter. There’s little question the front office believes in his ability to return to his prior form. La Stella figures to rotate between second and third base, at least until Evan Longoria returns from his own lengthy IL stint. That’ll free up Kris Bryant to see more time in the outfield and offer manager Gabe Kapler a quality left-handed bat to mix in with the right-handed hitting Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores at those positions.

In addition to La Stella, San Francisco figures to bring back Longoria and Brandon Belt in the not too distant future. They’ll be welcome reinforcements for the 67-40 Giants, who hold MLB’s best record and lead the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the National League West.

It doesn’t seem there’s much cause for alarm with DeSclafani despite the ominous-sounding diagnosis. Kapler told reporters (including Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic) the expectation is that he’ll miss just one start.  The righty struggled in 2020 — his final season with the Reds — but has had a bounceback campaign in the Bay Area. DeSclafani has tossed 126 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA/4.03 SIERA ball with average or better strikeout (23.3%), walk (6.5%) and groundball (45.0%) rates. He’s already thrown nearly 100 more innings than he did in Cincinnati last season, so the Giants are surely keeping a close eye on his workload to keep him healthy for the stretch run.

Menez is something of a surprising cut, as the southpaw has pitched quite well in his big league time this season. He’s tossed 14 innings with a 3.86 ERA, punching out a decent 24.2% of opposing hitters with a massive 59.1% grounder rate. However, he’s struggled mightily in 22 frames with Triple-A Sacramento, managing just a 6.95 ERA and walking an alarming 15.9% of opposing hitters in the minors.

Triple-A struggles aside, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another team add Menez off waivers. The 26-year-old has a fine 4.04 ERA/4.34 SIERA over parts of three major league seasons and can still be optioned for the remainder of this year.

Giants Notes: Wade, Outfield, Deadline, DeSclafani

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The Giants announced Monday afternoon that they’ve reinstated outfielders Alex Dickerson and Darin Ruf from the injured list. Infielder Jason Vosler and, more surprisingly, outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr. were optioned to Triple-A Sacramento to open space on the 26-man roster. It’s a tough break for Wade, who has hit quite well in his first season with San Francisco — albeit in a tiny sample of 94 plate appearances. Acquired in a lopsided deal that sent righty Shaun Anderson to Minnesota — the Twins already lost Anderson on waivers — Wade is hitting .265/.344/.470 with four homers, three doubles, a triple and a pair of steals in his limited time as a Giant.

That’s a far cry from anything Wade has done previously in the Majors or in Triple-A, particularly in the power department, and it’s worth noting that Wade has batted a tepid .220/.273/.390 over his past 11 games. Still, the overall numbers are solid and ought to earn the 27-year-old another look before too long. The Giants are quite active when it comes to roster turnover, and Wade only needs to be down for 10 days (or less, if recalled in place of someone going on the injured  list) before he can return.

More on the Giants…

  • Many Giants fans expressed immediate frustration to see Wade optioned out when hitting so well — particularly with veteran outfielder Mike Tauchman struggling so much at the plate. Tauchman hasn’t started a game since June 14, and he hasn’t tallied a multi-hit game since collecting three knocks in his Giants debut back on April 28 after he was acquired from the Yankees. He’s also out of minor league options, however, meaning he’d need to be designated for assignment and passed through waivers if the team hopes to send him down. Given Tauchman’s .171/.287/.271 slash through 150 plate appearances with San Francisco, there’s a straightforward argument that that’s the route the team should’ve taken, but clearly the front office isn’t quite yet to that point. As Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News points out, the Giants also have several left-handed opponents on the horizon, and the left-handed-hitting Wade’s production thus far has come entirely against righties.
  • Giants CEO Larry Baer discussed the trade deadline on this week’s Giants Talk podcast (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). As one would expect from most MLB execs, Baer was a bit guarded and rather vague, so as not to reveal too much, but he made clear that ownership is prepared to greenlight the front office to make some additions to bolster the roster. Baer effused praise for president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, GM Scott Harris and the rest of the recently reworked front office, stating that the group has quickly garnered “so much credibility” with ownership and expressed a desire to “do what’s right by the club and [the front office’s] recommendations.” While Baer didn’t foreshadow any potential target areas for the front office, it’s no doubt encouraging for the fanbase to hear ownership state that the “number one factor” at this year’s trade deadline will be: “how are we best set up to win this year?”
  • Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle about the league’s forthcoming crackdown on foreign substance usage. “I’m not a user, so they can come check me whenever they want,” the righty said. DeSclafani noted the extremely low spin on his curveball and said he’s tried in the past to increase the spin and do so legally, but without much success. It’s been interesting to hear various players around the league weigh in on the foreign substance policy, and DeSclafani had several quotes on the matter in his chat with Shea for those who are interested. Lack of spin notwithstanding, the 31-year-old DeSclafani has been nothing short of excellent for the Giants. Since signing a one-year pact over the winter, he’s started 14 games and pitched to a 3.01 ERA with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.9 percent walk rate in 80 2/3 frames. Like many of his rotation-mates — Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood, Johnny Cueto and the currently injured Aaron Sanchez — DeSclafani is slated to become a free agent at season’s end. (San Francisco holds a $22MM option on Cueto, though the accompanying $5MM buyout looks likelier at present.)

Giants Sign Anthony DeSclafani

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DEC. 18: The Giants are deferring half of DeSclafani’s salary, including incentives, to the first quarter of 2022, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

DEC. 16, 4:06pm: The Giants have announced the signing. The deal comes with up to $250K in performance bonuses based on innings pitched, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

3:27pm: The two sides have agreed to a one-year, $6MM contract, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. That comes in north of MLBTR’s one-year, $4MM prediction for DeSclafani.

3:08pm: The Giants and free-agent right-hander Anthony DeSclafani are nearing a deal, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. DeSclafani is a client of VC Sports Group.

This figures to be a buy-low pickup for the Giants, who are set to add a starter who has gone through an up-and-down career since it began in 2014. DeSclafani was a member of the Marlins during his first season, but he moved on to the Reds after that in a trade that sent fellow righty Mat Latos to Miami.

Cincinnati received rather impressive production from DeSclafani from 2015-16, during which he accrued 308 innings and notched a 3.74 ERA/3.79 FIP with 7.48 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9. DeSclafani missed the next season because of elbow problems, though, and didn’t return until June 2018. His production from then through 2019 was fairly respectable, but DeSclafani fell on hard times last season. Despite posting a career-high 94.9 mph on his fastball, the 30-year-old logged personal worsts in ERA (7.22), FIP (6.10), K/9 (6.68) and BB/9 (4.28) across 33 2/3 innings. He also had a rough year by Statcast’s standards, ranking closer to the bottom of the league than the top in most of its categories.

Although last season was no doubt a disaster for DeSclafani, the Giants have done well recently in signing starters to low-risk contracts. They added one of DeSclafani’s former Reds teammates, Kevin Gausman, on a one-year, $9MM pact last offseason. That couldn’t have worked out much better for the Giants, who were so impressed that they issued Gausman a qualifying offer a few weeks back. Gausman accepted that $18.9MM offer and will be atop their rotation in 2021. Along with picking up Gausman a year ago, the Giants signed Drew Smyly to a $4MM guarantee. Smyly also exceeded expectations, though he left for a raise with the Braves earlier this winter.

Assuming DeSclafani is part of the Giants’ rotation next year, he should join a group that will include Gausman, Johnny Cueto and likely Logan Webb. The other spot will probably be up for grabs, especially with Andrew Suarez nearing an agreement with a team in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Place Joey Votto On Injured List; Activate Anthony DeSclafani

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As expected, the Reds activated right-hander Anthony DeSclafani from the 10-day injured list today, as DeSclafani is scheduled to start the first game of a double-header against the Tigers.  He will take the roster spot of a notable figure, as first baseman Joey Votto will head to the injured list.

The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale reports that Votto told the Reds he was experiencing symptoms of COVID-19, though he hasn’t had any positive test results for the virus.  As opposed to the regular IL, the coronavirus injured list doesn’t have any minimum absence time attached, so Votto could be back in action within a couple of days if he is feeling better and he continues to test negative.

Matt Davidson tested positive for COVID-19 last week, a day after appearing in the Reds’ season opener.  This created worries that the entire Reds clubhouse could have potentially been exposed to the coronavirus, and those worries intensified when Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel both began to exhibit symptoms.  Thankfully, neither Moustakas or Senzel tested positive for the virus and both are now back on the active roster, and Davidson was also cleared to return last Friday.

A right teres major strain sidelined DeSclafani just prior to the Reds’ first game of the season, though the injury was only thought to be serious enough to require a minimal IL stint and one missed start for the right-hander.  DeSclafani is looking to build on a solid 2019 season that saw him post a 3.89 ERA, 3.41 K/BB rate, and 9.0 K/9 over 31 starts and 166 2/3 innings for Cincinnati.  The man they call “Disco” seemed to be emerging as a quality rotation piece for the Reds in 2015-16 before a series of injuries set him back, including elbow problems that kept him out of action for the entire 2017 campaign.

Reds Place Anthony DeSclafani On 10-Day Injured List

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5:00pm: DeSclafani is only expected to miss one start, GM Nick Krall told reporters (Twitter link via The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans).

12:18pm: The Reds announced today that right-hander Anthony DeSclafani will open the season on the 10-day injured list due to a “mild” right teres major strain. A timetable for his expected recovery was not provided. The move is retroactive to Monday.

The 30-year-old DeSclafani missed all of the 2017 season and struggled in his 2018 return before enjoying a quality bounceback effort in 2019. Last year saw the righty work to a 3.89 ERA and 4.43 FIP with career-bests in both K/9 (9.0) and total strikeout percentage (24.0). DeSclafani also averaged just 2.7 walks per nine frames and turned in a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate. Like many pitchers in the league, his HR/9 mark was well above his career levels (1.57 versus 1.20), but last year’s juiced ball surely played a role in that.

DeSclafani’s 94.7 mph average fastball velocity last year was a career-high for the righty, as was his 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate. DeSclafani went to his sinker less than in prior years, instead favoring a four-seamer more regularly, and he upped his curveball usage at the expense of some sliders as well. The overall result was a quality year from a pitcher who was building a nice free-agent case. He’ll hit the open market for the first time this winter, so a lengthy absence will be particularly problematic for the right-hander. It’s encouraging, though, that the club made sure to term the strain as “mild” in nature, though they’ll surely provide additional info on his recovery process in the coming days.

With DeSclafani opening on the IL, fellow righty Tyler Mahle might be the favorite to slot into the rotation behind the talented quartet of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer and Wade Miley. Cincinnati’s 30-man roster currently has just 28 players, so some additions will likely be announced today or tomorrow.

The Reds May Have To Replace 2 Solid Starters

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If we’re lucky enough to see a 2020 Major League Baseball season, it could prove to be the year the Reds finally escape from a long-running stint toward the bottom of the National League Central. Not only did the Reds have an aggressive offseason, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka outlined, but they feature one of the game’s most promising rotations on paper. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and free-agent pickup Wade Miley comprise a formidable starting five. The problem for the Reds is that they may never see that rotation in action if the coronavirus leads to a canceled season. Even if that group does work together this year, there’s a decent chance that neither Bauer nor DeSclafani will be part of the team beyond then.

Bauer may be the No. 1 starter on a market that won’t have a Gerrit Cole or a Stephen Strasburg type. Granted, Bauer’s only two years removed from performing like an elite pitcher with the Indians. Last season wasn’t nearly as successful, though, as Bauer had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board after the Reds acquired him from their in-state rivals in July. Bauer has pitched to a horrid 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings in their uniform so far, but the Reds are no doubt expecting a rebound in 2020. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have kept the 29-year-old strikeout artist around on a $17.5MM salary.

DeSclafani won’t cost the Reds nearly as much this year (just under $6MM), but the 30-year-old gave the Reds better numbers than Bauer in 2019. Returning from two injury-affected seasons, DeSclafani logged a 3.89 ERA/4.43 FIP with 9.02 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 166 2/3 innings. Even if there’s no season, then, he should be able to find a decent payday should he join Bauer on the open market.

The Reds will definitely take a hit if they lose both Bauer and DeSclafani, though the good news is that Castillo, Gray and Miley should still make for a solid foundation a year from now. What would they do about the other two spots, though? Well, the Reds do have a slew of pitchers among their highest-graded prospects – MLB.com has six pitchers in the team’s top 15, including No. 1-ranked Nick Lodolo – but it remains to be seen how many will be able to contribute in the near term. And perhaps someone like former top prospect Jose De Leon, whom the Reds traded for in November, could force his way into the mix. There’s also Tyler Mahle, who was a standout farmhand in his own right not that long ago, though his production was less than stellar during a 25-start season in 2019 (5.14 ERA/4.66 in 129 2/3 innings).

If the Reds aren’t sold on their in-house options for next season, there are always the trade and free-agency routes. Notably, the Reds didn’t draft a single member of their current rotation – they either a swung a deal to land them or signed them. So, you know president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall aren’t shy about looking elsewhere, and they further proved it this past offseason by signing Miley, Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Pedro Strop to deals worth a combined $165MM-plus. Based on that level of spending, you’d think the Reds would do their best to retain Bauer and DeSclafani. If not, they could try for any number of free agents (Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jose Quintana, Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are also on track to become available) and/or make a trade. It’s tough to speculate so far in advance as to who may wind up on the block, but Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Jon Gray (Rockies) and Chris Archer (Pirates) are a few of the starters who come to mind.

COVID-19 is negatively affecting every team, but Cincinnati might be near the top. It has built what looks like a respectable team as a whole and a capable starting staff, but there’s a chance it won’t get to see its present roster in action. And it’s going to sting even worse if the Reds lose Bauer after giving up a well-regarded prospect in outfielder Taylor Trammell for him last summer. The Reds will likely issue Bauer a qualifying offer next winter, which would entitle them to some compensation if he departs, but that wasn’t the goal when they acquired him. Rather, the hope is that Bauer and DeSclafani will help form an easily above-average rotation in 2020 and end the club’s six-year playoff drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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