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Carlos Correa

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Cubs Notes: Free Agency, Hendricks, Reyes

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Although the Cubs generally sat out last winter’s star-studded free agent market for shortstops, there’s already been ample speculation that they’ll be more aggressive on that front in the 2022-23 offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added to that this week in his podcast, voicing a belief that the Cubs “will get” one of the marquee shortstops on this year’s market. As profiled in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR yesterday, the class includes Trea Turner, Carlos Correa (who’s expected to opt out of the final two years and $70.7MM of his Twins deal this winter), Xander Bogaerts (who’ll opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his Red Sox deal) and Dansby Swanson.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive statements regarding who’ll sign where over the winter, and it bears emphasizing that speculation this time of year often doesn’t align with reality when the offseason dust settles. (A year ago this time, the common speculation was that Correa would reunite with former Astros skipper AJ Hinch in Detroit. A few years back, Patrick Corbin and the Yankees were linked to one another just about every week.) Signing one of the “big” shortstops would likely require the largest commitment the Cubs have made since signing Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126MM contract in free agency — and each of the four can be reasonably expected to clear that sum on the open market this year.

Correa was reported to be a target of the Cubs last winter, but he revealed in a July interview with Gordon Wittenmyer that in spite of some conversation, he never received an actual offer. The Cubs ultimately signed the recently released Andrelton Simmons to a one-year, $4MM deal.

More from Wrigley…

  • The Cubs aren’t certain whether they’ll get Kyle Hendricks back this season, although manager David Ross tells reporters that the right-hander’s latest MRI revealed only continued inflammation and some indications that the 32-year-old is “getting better” (link via Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago). Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since July 5, will be shut down for an additional week, at which point the Cubs’ medical staff will reevaluate him. Hendricks, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract extension, posted a 4.80 ERA through 16 starts when healthy enough to pitch. For the time being, the team’s focus is solely on getting Hendricks healthy and not necessarily on getting him back into game shape, Ross suggested, which makes sense for a player who’s signed for $14MM next season on a team with no postseason hopes. “I don’t think getting him back in games is a top priority for everyone,” said Ross. “But if he is able to get to that space, I think that’s a win for everyone.”
  • “Cubs bench coach Andy Green and assistant hitting coach know recently claimed slugger Franmil Reyes quite well from the trio’s time together in San Diego, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times points out. Green admitted to “fist pumping” when he learned the club had been awarded the waiver claim on Reyes, and both he and Washington effused praise for Reyes’ clubhouse demeanor and energy. As Lee explores, the Cubs’ decision to option Frank Schwindel following the Reyes claim — much like the decision to option David Bote after acquiring Zach McKinstry — signal a shift to beginning to evaluate newly acquired and/or untested players over the season’s final few months rather than sticking with struggling veterans whom the club knows a bit better.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Twins Reinstate Carlos Correa, Select Jharel Cotton

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The Twins announced they’ve reinstated Carlos Correa from the injured list, a bit more than a week after the star shortstop tested positive for COVID-19. Jermaine Palacios, who was selected to the majors as a designated “substitute” once Correa went on the IL, has been returned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Minnesota also selected reliever Jharel Cotton back to the big league club, filling the spot vacated when they designated Juan Minaya for assignment last night.

Correa is back in the lineup tonight against the Yankees, although manager Rocco Baldelli will ease him in with a start at designated hitter. Minnesota’s marquee offseason pickup has overcome a slow start to carry a quality .279/.344/.407 season line into play tonight. He’s only hit three home runs, but the 27-year-old has collected nine doubles and a batting average and on-base percentage well better than the respective .240 and .311 league marks.

The virus absence was the second of the season for Correa, who also landed on the shelf with a bruised finger. That proved a brief stay, one that was welcome after initial x-rays suggested he’d potentially suffered a fracture. Correa has only appeared in 35 of the Twins’ 57 games as a result, but the club has nevertheless built a four-game lead in the American League Central. They’ll hope the two-time All-Star — who can opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM on his deal next offseason — remains in the lineup for good through the summer months.

Palacios picked up eight starts at shortstop in Correa’s absence, struggling in his first look at big league pitching. He heads back to St. Paul, where he’s posted a .262/.325/.376 line through 163 trips to the plate. Palacios will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, and the Twins weren’t required to run him through waivers because he’d been specifically brought to the big leagues as a virus substitute. He’ll look to earn a more lasting promotion with the Saints.

Cotton followed that path, getting called up just two days after being returned to the minors. The right-hander was selected as a substitute for the players who went on the restricted list for the team’s weekend series in Toronto, but he was taken back off the roster when that group was reinstated on Monday.

This time around, Cotton is earning a more typical promotion to the majors. He’s now longer a substitute, so Minnesota would have to designate him for assignment and try to run him through waivers were they to again look to remove him from the 40-man roster. They’ve already done so once this year, as Cotton was outrighted off the roster last month but accepted an assignment to Triple-A and has worked his way back.

The 30-year-old has appeared in six games for the MLB club this year, tossing 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball with ten strikeouts but six walks. Cotton has had a strong showing in ten outings with St. Paul, allowing four runs in 11 2/3 frames while punching out a third of the batters he’s faced. He rejoins the big league bullpen as a result, taking the place of the struggling Minaya. Cotton is out of minor league option years, so he has to stick on the MLB roster or again be exposed to waivers now that he’s reclaimed a 40-man spot.

Cubs, Phillies Expected To Pursue Marquee Shortstops This Offseason

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The most recent offseason featured a huge crop of star free agents, with the five top-tier shortstops being one of the most exciting elements, as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story all reached the open market at the same time. In about five months’ time, another offseason will begin, and though the crop of available shortstops won’t be quite as strong, it still has the potential to be noteworthy.

MLBTR recently released its first Free Agent Power Rankings for the upcoming winter, and although red-hot outfielder Aaron Judge nabbed the top spot, he was followed by three shortstops in the 2, 3 and 4 slots: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Correa and Bogaerts both have opt-outs that they are expected to trigger.) In today’s column from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he reports that the Cubs could be big spenders this winter, naming those three shortstops as their primary targets. “I guarantee you they’re going to get one of them,” an unnamed veteran general manager tells Nightengale, who also says that several executives are predicting the Phillies to be sitting at this table as well.

Cubs manager David Ross recently spoke about letting Nico Hoerner serve as the team’s primary shortstop for the remainder of the year, though he’s also spent a decent amount of time at second base, as well as occasionally lining up at third base and in the outfield. It seems the club may be leaning towards a big addition at shortstop and bumping Hoerner over to second base next year.

After a big trade deadline fire sale in 2021, the Cubs were expected to have a fairly quiet offseason this past winter. However, they surprised many people by making a few somewhat aggressive moves. They didn’t land any of the big five shortstops, though they did give out multi-year deals to Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes.

The club is currently sporting a record of 23-31, six games back of the final playoff spot. There’s still time for them to gain some ground, though it’s also possible they go into the trade deadline as sellers this year. But regardless of how they fare for the remainder of this season, they should have spending power this winter. Suzuki is the only player currently under contract for the 2025 season, although the Cubs also have a $7MM club option for David Bote that year. Stroman’s contract runs through 2024, though he can opt out after the 2023 season. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes could also be free agents after 2023, as they have options for 2024.

In short, there’s not a lot preventing the club from making a big splash this winter if they want to. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team ran out Opening Day payrolls in the vicinity of $200MM from 2016 to 2019, but got that number below $150MM last year and this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $94MM at the moment, then just $50MM in 2024 and $20MM in 2025. Arbitration-eligible players will add to those numbers, but not by a lot. If they want to be aggressive in getting out of this rebuild/retool/whatever period, the opportunity is there.

The Phillies, however, are in a very different situation. They had a very aggressive offseason, giving out big contracts to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, pushing the club beyond the luxury tax line for the first time. Despite that aggressiveness, they’ve struggled over the first third of the season, going into today’s action with a record of 24-29, 4 1/2 games behind the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There was some speculation that they would dive into the shortstop sweepstakes this past winter, though they ultimately decided to stick with the in-house options of Didi Gregorius and prospect Bryson Stott. Gregorius is currently on the IL due to a sprained knee, but was performing okay before that. His .288/.338/.356 line amounts to a 97 wRC+, slightly below league average but much better than the 68 wRC+ he had last year. Regardless, he’s a free agent after this year, giving the club an opening next year. Stott could theoretically fill that void, though he’s struggled in his first taste of MLB action. Through 27 games, he’s hitting just .157/.222/.217 for a wRC+ of just 26. If the Phils were to go out and nab a big fish in free agency, Stott could spend more time in the minors or perhaps shift over to another infield position to try and force his way into the lineup, having played some second and third base as well.

Despite getting into luxury tax territory this year, the club should be able to be aggressive again next winter with many contracts coming off the books. Martinez puts their 2023 payroll at $129MM, well shy of this year’s $232MM, though that doesn’t include a $17MM option for Jean Segura, the $16MM option for Aaron Nola or salaries for arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys Hoskins. Regardless of whether they can turn their 2022 season around, it seems they may keep their foot on the gas pedal going forward, as they look to snap a postseason drought that goes back to 2011.

Twins Place Carlos Correa On Covid IL

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May 31: The Twins announced that Correa has been placed on the Covid-related injured list. Shortstop Jermaine Palacios has been selected to the roster as a substitute player in his stead and will make his Major League debut in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader in Detroit. Minnesota also tabbed righty Cole Sands as the 27th man for that twin bill, and he’ll make the first start of his big league career in Game 2 today.

Palacios, 25, was signed by Minnesota out of his native Venezuela as an amateur free agent back in 2013. The Twins eventually flipped him to the Rays in the 2018 Jake Odorizzi trade with Tampa Bay, but Palacios struggled throughout the bulk of his two-plus years in the Rays organization. Upon being released in the 2020-21 offseason, Palacios returned to the Twins on a minor league deal and placed himself back on the prospect map with a solid 2021 showing. MLB.com currently ranks him 29th among Twins farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him as the best defensive infielder in Minnesota’s system. Palacios hit .259/.340/.439 in Triple-A last year and is off to a .262/.325/.379 start in 2022.

Sands, 24, was the Twins’ fifth-rounder in 2018 and made his MLB debut with a pair of relief outings earlier this season. The Florida State product has had a rough showing in Triple-A so far, albeit in just five starts. He’s widely considered to be among the Twins’ 15 best prospects, thanks largely to a 2.46 ERA and 28.7% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of Double-A ball last year. Sands hasn’t pitched more than five innings in an appearance since April 13, so he may be in for a relatively short outing today. He did toss three scoreless frames in his last Triple-A appearance a week ago.

May 30: Carlos Correa didn’t play in the Twins’ 7-5 loss to the Tigers today, and after the game, Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that it was learned mid-game that the shortstop had tested positive for COVID-19.  Correa will be placed on the COVID-related injury list at some point prior to the Twins’ doubleheader tomorrow in Detroit.

There have already been quite a few ups and downs over Correa’s first two months with the Twins, as he also spent 10 days on the regular IL due to a contusion on his right middle finger.  Correa also got off to a pretty slow at the plate, but is now hitting a lot more like his usual self, with an overall slash line of .279/.344/.407 with three homers in 154 plate appearances.  This works out to a 122 wRC+/123 OPS+, only a little below Correa’s career average.

However, Correa is now sidelined for a minimum of 10 days following a positive COVID-19 test.  As per league rules, Correa can make an earlier return if he goes 24 hours without a fever, tests negative twice, and gets approval from three physicians (the Twins team doctor, a league-appointed doctor, and an MLBPA-appointed doctor).

Correa joins Joe Ryan and Gilberto Celestino on Minnesota’s COVID list, one sub-section of an overall injured list that is worryingly long for the Twins.  Once Correa is officially added, he’ll be the 13th player on the Minnesota IL, and the club will also be short a few more non-vaccinated players for a series in Toronto on June 3-5.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis had filled in at shortstop during Correa’s previous IL stint, but Lewis himself was just placed on the injured list today after suffering a bone bruise on his right knee after a collision with the center field wall in yesterday’s game.  This leaves utilityman Nick Gordon or regular second baseman Jorge Polanco as the likeliest candidates to cover shortstop in Correa’s absence, and third baseman Gio Urshela also has experience as a shortstop.

Astros Notes: Tucker, McCullers, Pena

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Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has quickly rebounded after a rocky couple weeks to begin the year, hitting .310/.402/.530 over the past month after getting out to a brutal .087/.192/.217 start through his first 13 games. That production only serves as a reminder that the 25-year-old is viewed as a building block in Houston. That fact is also backed up by the team’s apparent efforts to sign Tucker to a long-term extension. Mark Feinsand and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported recently that the ’Stros approached Tucker’s camp about an extension this year but talks proved unsuccessful and are not active at this time (Twitter link).

Tucker confirmed the report when speaking with Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Tucker tells Rome that he’s open to continued negotiations, whether they take place during the current season or in future offseasons. The former No. 5 overall draft pick noted that he’s controlled through the 2025 season regardless, leaving plenty of time for a deal to come together, though he did voice a preference to “get it out of the way if something does happen, just to not prolong [talks] over a long period of time.” Tucker looked overmatched as a 21-year-old rookie in 2018 but has batted .278/.345/.526 in 1036 plate appearances from 2019-22. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

More out of Houston…

  • Lance McCullers Jr. hit a milestone in his rehab from a flexor tendon strain in his right forearm, telling reporters that he threw off a mound for the first time yesterday (Twitter link, with video, via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). McCullers prepped for the mound session by throwing from 90 feet on flat ground and then tossed “about ten” pitches off the mound. The righty still didn’t offer a concrete timetable for his return, replying that his next step is to “just continue to build” as restores arm strength and works toward a minor league rehab assignment. McCullers, 28, pitched to a 3.16 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate in 162 1/3 innings last season in what would’ve been his final year of club control prior to reaching free agency. However, he inked a five-year, $85MM extension to remain in Houston last spring, and the 2022 season is the first year of that new pact. He’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in early June, but considering the fact that he hasn’t pitched yet this season and is only just getting on a mound, he won’t be activated when first eligible.
  • General manager James Click spoke with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe about his team’s decision to move on from Carlos Correa and entrust the shortstop job to rookie and top prospect Jeremy Pena — a decision he knew might not be universally accepted, given Correa’s popularity in Houston. “[The fans] loved Correa and they wanted to keep him,” said Click. “But we have tried to make it clear to our fans here that our priority is winning. We would love to win and keep everybody together. But sometimes you have to make a difficult decision to move on in order to try to keep that championship window open as long as you possibly can.” Pena has softened the blow by outproducing his predecessor for the time being and slashing .287/.343/.504 with seven homers and quality defense at short.

Twins Option Royce Lewis

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Royce Lewis homered and doubled in last night’s loss to the A’s, boosting his slash line through his first 11 big league games to .308/.325/.564 — but the Twins nevertheless optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul last night in order to pave the way for Carlos Correa’s activation from the 10-day injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli announced after the game (link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Baldelli naturally acknowledged that Lewis had made the decision “difficult” with his play and suggested that the Twins will use this run in Triple-A to “move [Lewis] around the field” and “get him a little bit of exposure at some different spots.”

Lewis’ glovework at shortstop has long been a question among scouts, with some viewing a move to the outfield as an eventual necessity. The 22-year-old made a pair of errors in his 99 innings at shortstop but also made several highlight-reel plays in his tiny sample of work. The Twins very likely still view him as a shortstop in the long run, but Correa is arguably the game’s best defender at the position, so Lewis will use a potentially brief run through Triple-A to get his feet wet at other positions while also further honing his skills at short.

Lewis does have some limited experience at other positions but has played exclusively at shortstop in 2022 — his first season of game action since way back in 2019. The 2020 season was lost for all minor leaguers, and Lewis missed the 2021 campaign due to a torn ACL. He logged a dozen games at third base, five in center field and four at second base during the 2019 Arizona Fall League, but he’s never played a position other than shortstop outside that AFL run. That Lewis was able to hit the ground running both in Triple-A and in the Majors after what amounts to more than two years away from game activity is a testament to the upside and talent that prompted Minnesota to select him with the No. 1 overall pick back in 2017.

It’s still undoubtedly a deflating move for Lewis and for Twins fans, even if the move is short-term in nature. Correa, however, will return to the lineup and give the club a premier defensive player and overall MVP-caliber talent whose bat had begun to heat up just prior to the hit-by-pitch that ultimately landed him on the 10-day IL. The 27-year-old is hitting .255/.320/.372 overall but raked at a .412/.444/.588 pace in the nine games preceding his injury.

As for where Lewis will slot in when he does return, the Twins will have multiple options. First base has been the biggest hole in their lineup, with both Miguel Sano and prospect Jose Miranda floundering at the plate. Utilityman Luis Arraez has begun to slot in at first base with more regularity, however, and the Twins surely still have hope that outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff — like Lewis, a longtime top prospect both in the system and in the league as a whole — will right the ship in Triple-A and be able to play a larger role there.

Across the diamond, third base could be a more viable fit. Gio Urshela has made some strong defensive plays but ranks about average with the glove according to most public metrics. He’s also hitting just .226/.280/.330 in 118 trips to the plate — production (or lack thereof) that would eventually jeopardize his place in the lineup even if he were producing outstanding numbers on the defensive side of the coin. Minnesota left fielders, meanwhile, are hitting .236/.294/.341 on the season, due in large part to Kirilloff’s struggles prior to his wrist injury and to Nick Gordon’s tepid .250/.292/.309 output (most of which has come while playing left field).

Being uncertain where they’ll ultimately slot Lewis back into the mix is the quintessential “good problem to have” for a team. It’ll be worth keeping a keen eye on just where Lewis is lining up across the river in St. Paul, as that could foreshadow some other decisions pertaining to the big league roster. Lewis will technically need to remain with the Saints for at least 10 days now that he’s been optioned, although the Twins can easily get around that minimum by recalling Lewis as the corresponding move for an injury if they see fit.

Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL; Select Mark Contreras, Jharel Cotton

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The Twins announced that shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack have been placed on the 10-day injured list today. Correa’s placement (due to a right middle finger contusion) is retroactive to May 6, while Paddack’s placement with right elbow inflammation is retroactive to May 9.  Minnesota has selected the contracts of outfielder Mark Contreras and righty Jharel Cotton to replace Correa and Paddack on the active roster.

As reported earlier today, Correa needed more time to recover from the deep bruise suffered in Thursday’s game, and the shortstop hasn’t played since.  While Correa may have avoided serious injury, things seem more ominous for Paddack, who has a history of elbow problems.  Paddack is still considering his next step, and another surgery hasn’t been ruled out.

Royce Lewis will take over for Correa at shortstop, and Sonny Gray’s return from the injured list over the weekend means the Twins still have a full five-man rotation (plus Dylan Bundy on the COVID-related IL).  Minnesota is still missing a lot of key personnel on the injured list, so to improve that depth, Contreras and Cotton are joining the roster.

Cotton already appeared in two games with the Twins earlier this season, tossing two innings before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.  The former top-100 prospect is trying to revive his career after a number of injuries, and after posting a 3.52 ERA over 30 2/3 innings with the Rangers last season, Cotton was acquired by the Twins on a waiver claim back in November.

Contreras was a ninth-round pick for the Twins in the 2017 draft, and the UC Riverside product is now set to make his Major League debut.  The 27-year-old didn’t hit much in his first three pro seasons, but after not playing in 2020 due to the canceled minor league campaign, Contreras returned to action with a flourish, hitting well at Double-A and earning a promotion to Triple-A Rochester.  Over 497 plate appearances at Rochester over the last two seasons, Contreras has hit .246/.338/.492 with 23 homers, and 17 steals in 23 chances.

Both Contreras and Gilberto Celestino can play all three outfield positions, and Contreras is a left-handed hitting complement to Celestino’s righty bat.  Minnesota now has some flexibility with their outfield bench depth behind starters Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and Byron Buxton, though with Buxton still day-to-day with a minor hip strain, the Twins can’t afford to lose yet another regular (especially a star like Buxton) when they’re already stretched thin.

Twins Expected To Place Carlos Correa On 10-Day IL

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With Carlos Correa still hampered by a bruised finger, the Twins are likely to put Correa on the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game against the Astros, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes.  Correa has missed Minnesota’s last three games, and told Hayes and other reporters on Sunday that returning for today’s game wasn’t a “realistic” scenario.

Since Minnesota didn’t play yesterday, the hope was that Correa would make enough improvement on the off-day to line up a return for later in the week, but it seems like the Twins have just decided to be cautious and send the shortstop to the IL.  All things considered, a 10-day IL stint may be the best-case scenario, as there was initial concern that Correa had suffered a fracture.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis has been handling shortstop duties in Correa’s absence, and will now get to bank more playing time in his first taste of Major League action.  While Lewis is more than just a stopgap option, the Twins likely wouldn’t have called him up this soon had the team not been hit with such a swath of injuries.  Correa will be the 11th Twins player on the injured list, and Byron Buxton is also day-to-day with a minor hip strain.

Minnesota does have a 40-man roster opening, so the club could fill Correa’s roster spot by selecting the contract of a player in the organization on a minor league contract.  Daniel Robertson, Curtis Terry, Elliot Soto, and Jake Cave are some of the names at Triple-A with MLB experience who would need to be added to the 40-man.

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