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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Pohlad: “Totally On Board” With Re-Signing Carlos Correa

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Carlos Correa will become a free agent five days after the World Series draws to a close — the date on which a decision regarding his contract’s first of two opt-out clauses is due. Correa has already made clear that he plans to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM, returning to free agency, though he’s expressed a hope that he and the Twins can work out a long-term pact. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey acknowledged last month that the team had already had some dialogue with agent Scott Boras about a potential new deal, although obviously, no agreement has been reached.

For his part, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made clear in a recent interview with Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hopes to see Correa back in the fold next season and is very open to a new contract. “I’m totally on board with him coming back,” said Pohlad. “Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go.”

While some Twins fans have perhaps been holding out hope for an extension before Correa’s opt-out date is due, that’s never felt especially likely, and Pohlad himself suggested that he expects Correa and Boras to test the market. Pohlad called Boras an “aggressive” agent and noted that it’s still too early to tell what sort of offers the market might yield.

At the time of the signing, the $35.1MM annual rate on Correa’s three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota was the fourth-largest AAV in Major League history. He reportedly sought more than $330MM over a deal of at least ten years last offseason, and while that might be an ambitious goal a year later and a year older, Correa will also enter the market with a new set of potential bidders and without the burden of a qualifying offer. The Dodgers, who largely sat out the shortstop market last winter due to Trea Turner’s presence, for instance, have already been linked to Correa before free agency even commences.

Regardless of whether the record-setting free-agent deal Correa sought last winter is there in the months to come, there’s still good reason to believe he can command a lucrative, long-term arrangement. On a rate basis, Correa’s 2022 season was largely in line with his 2021 performance.

This year’s .291/.366/.467 slash compares quite favorably to last season’s .274/.366/.487 slash.  By measure of wRC+, which weights for the leaguewide dip in power and a home park that wasn’t necessarily as friendly to Correa as Houston’s Minute Maid Park (and its short porch), Correa’s 2022 season was actually better: 140 to 133. Correa’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity was only a hair below 2021’s mark of 90.2 mph, and he actually improved upon his barrel rate (9.4% in 2021, 11.4% in 2022) and hard-hit rate (42.5% to 44.7%).

[Related: Minnesota Twins Offseason Outlook]

Correa’s defensive metrics took a major step back from his 2021 Platinum Glove showing, but year-to-year fluctuations in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average are fairly commonplace. That’s not to completely write off the struggles, and some teams may view them as a portent for further decline at the position. Even if that were the case, however, Statcast measures Correa’s arm as the sixth-strongest among all shortstops, averaging 88 mph per throw (and 14th among all non-first-baseman infielders). A move to third base, if ever needed, would likely be plenty feasible.

Setting aside Correa’s broader market appeal and turning back to the Twins, specifically, Minnesota has just $32.5MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books, plus another $36MM or so in projected arbitration salaries. Looking ahead to 2024, Byron Buxton’s $15MM base salary is the only notable guarantee on the books. There’s room for the Twins to make a market offer if Pohlad truly feels convicted in his comments regarding Correa, but it’s a fair question whether the Twins will be willing to outbid the field with a franchise-record deal when there are plenty of other needs on the roster — particularly on the pitching staff.

Dodgers Interested In Carlos Correa

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After being eliminated from the postseason in 5 games by the division rival Padres, the Dodgers have turned their focus to the offseason earlier than expected coming off a 111-win campaign. This offseason is sure to be a significant one for the Dodgers, as Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, and Craig Kimbrel are among their players who will test free agency this offseason, with it also being possible that Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger depart in the event that the Dodgers decline Turner’s club option and non-tender Bellinger.

Even with so much potential roster churn this offseason, shortstop appears to be the biggest question mark for LA headed into 2023 given Turner’s pending free agency. Even as Jon Heyman of the New York Post and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya both mention Turner’s willingness to sign with the club long term, Heyman mentions that the Dodgers “appear to have landed on” Carlos Correa as their preferred replacement for Turner in free agency while Ardaya notes that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been non-committal about continuing to spend well above the luxury tax going forward and has mentioned a desire to integrate the talent LA has at the upper levels of its farm system into the 2023 big league club.

As Ardaya notes, however, Jacob Amaya is the only shortstop in that group of upper-minors talent Friedman noted, and he was below average offensively at Triple-A this season, slashing just .259/.368/.381 across 84 games in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League. Thus, it’s worth looking more closely at the fit between Correa and the Dodgers.

At first glance, Correa may seem to be Turner’s equal or superior in most regards. Correa’s .291/.366/.467 slash line in 2022 shows him to have slightly outproduced Turner on a rate basis this season, as Turner slashed a slightly less impressive .298/.343/.466. Looking under the hood, it would also appear that Turner has more luck baked into his numbers this season than Correa, with Turner’s wOBA of .350 slightly outpacing his xwOBA of .335, whereas Correa’s .362 wOBA is a near match for his .363 xwOBA. In addition to comparing favorably to Turner with the bat, Correa’s reputation with the glove far outstrips that of Turner, as Correa has frequently rated well with defensive metrics throughout his career and even won the Platinum Glove in the AL last season.

Correa is also a bit over a year younger than Turner, who will celebrate his 30th birthday next June. That age gap should mean that Correa will project more favorably going forward than Turner. The Dodgers may also have interest in Correa due to his track record in the playoffs. After 334 trips to the plate during the postseason, Correa has posted identical marks of 130 wRC+ in both regular and postseason play, whereas Turner has managed a wRC+ of just 62 across his 197 postseason plate appearances.

Despite all these points in Correa’s favor, the comparison between him and Turner is far from cut-and-dry. While defensive metrics have significantly favored Correa in the past, they’ve soured on him in 2022, with OAA in particular strongly preferring Turner to Correa this past season. Turner is also among the best baserunners in the league, having swiped 230 bases in his career, including 27 in 2022. Correa, meanwhile, was caught stealing in his only 2022 attempt, and has rated negatively according to Fangraphs’s baserunning metric in each of the past three years.

Additionally, while Turner is a year older than Correa, he’s also been far more reliable in terms of staying on the field throughout his career. Turner has made just two trips to the injured list since the start of the 2018 season, while Correa had that many stints on the IL in 2022 alone. 2017 represents the only year of Turner’s career where he spent significant time on the IL, whereas Correa has spent significant time on the IL in 2017 and 2019 in addition to shorter stints each of the past two seasons. Even in a mostly healthy 2022 season, Correa took 118 less trips to the plate than Turner, whose 708 plate appearances were tied for second in all of baseball this season.

Correa and Turner aren’t the only options for the Dodgers this offseason, however. Of course, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts are expected to join Correa and Turner at the top of the free agent shortstop class this offseason, so it’s also feasible the Dodgers could explore signing either of them. Ardaya suggests that LA could look to utilize their farm system depth to explore the trade market in search of their new shortstop, and mentions Milwaukee’s Willy Adames as a possibility. Speculatively speaking, swinging a trade for a lower-cost option at shortstop could leave payroll space open for a potential pursuit of Aaron Judge, who the Dodgers have previously been reported to have interest in.

Dipoto: Mariners To Pursue Shortstops Willing To Play Second Base

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There is plenty of cause for optimism in Seattle. The Mariners finished with a 90-72 record, their best since 2003. They delivered one of the best comeback wins in postseason history on their way to knocking off the Blue Jays in the wild card series. Down the stretch, the club locked up budding presumptive AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez through 2034 and extended two-time All Star starting pitcher Luis Castillo through 2028.

Now, on the heels of a thrilling season, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has indicated that he’s open to making big moves in order to improve what is already a playoff-caliber team.

At the M’s end-of-season media session on Wednesday, Dipoto said that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base” (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Dipoto is likely referring to any of the four “big name shortstops” who project to be free agents this offseason: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Each of these four would instantly improve Seattle’s offense, which ranked in the bottom half of all of baseball. All four of the big name shortstops will require multi-year pacts with significant annuals.

The Mariners project to have the payroll capacity to splurge on a top-of-the-market shortstop, should they choose to. In 2022, Seattle ranked 22nd in MLB with an Opening Day player payroll just shy of $104MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2022’s figure is significantly lower than some of the Mariners’ recent seasons, during which Seattle was generally less competitive. From 2016 to 2019, the Mariners averaged total payrolls of roughly $150MM, ranking as high as 11th league-wide.

The M’s currently have around $91MM worth of payroll commitments for 2023, per Roster Resource. Though that number will increase as a result of arbitration, it seems likely that Seattle would have the fiscal capacity to sign one of the big four shortstops, even if they attempt to bring back Mitch Haniger, who will be a free agent this offseason as well.

The major caveat in Seattle’s pursuit of a big-name free agent shortstop will be whether or not any of them will accept a move to second base. Dipoto reaffirmed his commitment to J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ shortstop. He told the media that Crawford, age 27, will “line up for us Opening Day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him.” Dipoto continued on to state plainly that the Mariners signed Crawford to be a shortstop and that “that’s what we intend to do.”

One could argue the cleanest fit of the four aforementioned shortstops would be Turner, who is the only one of the four to appear in Major League games as a second baseman. Turner was a full-time second baseman as recently as the second half of 2021, when he transitioned to the right side of the diamond so that the Dodgers could accommodate both Corey Seager and Turner after Los Angeles acquired him from the Nationals.

None of Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson has played on the right side of the infield in their careers, although they all have extended experience at the infield’s most demanding position. Trevor Story had also never previously played the keystone, but he agreed to move over in deference to Bogaerts upon signing with the Red Sox last offseason. Whether any of the big four shortstops this time would do so while letting Crawford keep shortstop isn’t presently known, but Dipoto and his staff seem likely to inquire with everyone in that group.

Haniger, meanwhile, will hit free agency after spending the past five seasons in Seattle. M’s general manger Justin Hollander was effusive in his praise for the 31-year-old outfielder and said the organization will remain in contact with his representatives at Apex Baseball (via Divish). At the same time, he noted that Haniger “wants to gauge what else is out there” on the open market during his first trip to free agency.

It’s not the best platform season for Haniger, who missed a couple months with a high ankle sprain. He ultimately appeared in 57 games and hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances. That’s above-average offense but a step back from his 39-homer, .253/.318/.485 campaign in 2021. Haniger is eligible for a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but the relative down platform year and the M’s stockpile of controllable outfielders make it seem likely they’ll allow him to hit free agency unencumbered by a QO.

Carlos Correa On Opt-Out Clause, Future With Twins

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Since the moment Carlos Correa signed a surprising, short-term and opt-out laden deal with the Twins, it’s appeared all but inevitable that he’d trigger the first opt-out in his contract and return to free agency this winter. A huge finish at the plate likely only made Correa’s decision easier, and while the 28-year-old former All-Star hinted that he will indeed opt out when speaking to the Twins beat yesterday, he also voiced a strong desire to return to the Twins and continue playing under manager Rocco Baldelli (Twitter thread via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com).

“…I talked about marriage in terms of building a long-term relationship [with the team], and then we go from there,” Correa said. “But we all know, you know the game enough to know what my decision is going to be like.”

Correa said early in the season that he and his wife immediately felt at home in the Twin Cities. He doubled down on the comments yesterday, stating his love for the organization and the team, adding that his family’s happiness is something he will “take dearly into consideration” as he charts his course. He added that he plans to meet with the team soon and repeated a desire to “get into serious conversations” with the Twins regarding a longer-term deal than the one to which he’s currently signed. If he made the surprising decision to forgo his opt-out, he’d still be signed for another two years and $70.2MM — with the ability to  opt out again next winter.

While Baldelli has become a lightning rod for criticism among Twins fans on the heels of a second straight disappointing season, Correa indicated that the relationship he’s forged with his manager has been a key factor in his happiness this season.

“He’s been an open book with me since day one,” Correa said of Baldelli. “He’s been honest. He’s been trustworthy. He’s been a friend. There’s nothing more you want from a manager than what Rocco is to us here.”

Obviously, it’s in Correa’s best interest to say all the right things and to express interest in a long-term deal. There’s no sense in any pending free agent burning any type of bridge or casting doubt about his willingness to return to his current setting; the greater the number of potential landing spots, the greater the competition in free agency, after all. Still, Correa could also have simply declined to comment on the opt-out or on his relationship with the club, so it’s of at least mild note that he perhaps foreshadowed his decision and expressed ostensibly earnest desire to stay put in Minnesota.

Correa stumbled out of the gates early in the season, hitting just .167/.254/.250 through his first 16 games and 67 plate appearances. From that point forth, he found his stroke at the plate and looked every bit like the star the Twins hoped to be acquiring, batting .307/.380/.496 (152 wRC+) with a 10.3% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate through his final 523 plate appearances.

Defensive metrics soured on Correa’s work at shortstop following last year’s Platinum Glove showing, but both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) still pegged him as an above-average shortstop. Statcast did grade him negatively (two runs below average) for the first time since his rookie season. Correa made just eight errors this year (six of the throwing variety).

The end result was a strong all-around campaign: a .291/.366/.467 batting line (140 wRC+), 22 home runs, 24 doubles and anywhere from passable to above-average defense at shortstop. Baseball-Reference pegged Correa’s first and perhaps only Twins season at 5.4 wins above replacement; FanGraphs valued him at 4.4 WAR.

The question for both the Twins and for Correa now becomes one of finding a middle ground. Correa hit the market a year ago fresh off an even stronger season than his 2022 effort and still struggled to find the $330MM+ deal he was rumored to be seeking. Now a year older and coming off a strong but still lesser season, it’s hard to imagine that type of contract materializing — particularly with another excellent set of fellow shortstops on the market. A year ago, Correa was joined by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez in free agency. This time around, it’s Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson all serving as competition.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins can very clearly handle a long-term commitment to Correa. Assuming he opts out and Sonny Gray’s 2023 option is exercised — both of which are virtual locks — Minnesota will have about $53.25MM on the 2023 books. By 2024, the only notable long-term guarantee on the ledger is Byron Buxton’s seven-year contract, and his annual base salary clocks in just north of $15MM. If the team wants to build around the Nos. 1 and 2 picks from the 2012 draft, the resources are certainly there. The Twins carried a payroll of more than $142MM this season.

Whether that’s a risk worth taking will be a question for the front office and for ownership, of course. The Twins have more money coming off the books than all but a handful of MLB clubs this winter, but they also have needs in the rotation, the bullpen and at several spots in the lineup. They also have another former No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, as a potential heir to Correa at shortstop, although Lewis tore his right ACL (while playing the outfield) in just the 12th game of an impressive MLB debut. It’s the second straight season with a season-ending right ACL tear for the now 23-year-old Lewis, and it remains unclear whether that pair of surgeries to repair the same ligament impact the team’s thoughts on him as a potential shortstop. His outlook is but one of many layers to a complex and franchise-altering decision the Twins will face with Correa’s opt-out looming.

Carlos Correa Is Making His Opt-Out Decision Even Easier

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The Twins’ surprise signing of Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3MM contract was supposed to be the signature free-agent addition that washed away the lingering distaste of an awful 2021 campaign pushed them toward an AL Central crown. Instead, the Twins have wildly unperformed expectations for a second straight season, due in large part a once-again disastrous level of injury. Minnesota has had more IL days accrued than any team in the American League and trails only Cincinnati for the MLB lead in that odious category. (The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman took a player-by-player look at the Twins’ staggering injury woes just this morning.)

Very little has gone right in Minnesota this year, but with all the woes they’ve incurred in their catastrophic second half, Correa’s monstrous finish to the season has flown somewhat under the radar. As the team has crumbled around him, Correa has enjoyed just the type of sprint to the finish line the team had hoped for at the time of the contract.

Correa struggled in April and in July, sandwiching a paid of outstanding months between two below-average months at the plate. His bat picked up in late July, however, and he’s finishing out what could well be his only season with his strongest production of the year. Since Aug. 1, Correa is hitting .323/.405/.505 with eight homers, nine doubles and a triple in 222 plate appearances. Both his walk rate (11.7%) and strikeout rate (19.4%) during that stretch of 222 plate appearances are about two percentage points better than the levels Correa carried through the end of July.

Carlos Correa | Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Since Aug. 1, Correa ranks 10th in the Majors in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging percentage. His 162 wRC+ (indicating he’s been 62% better than the league-average hitter) in that time is tied with J.T. Realmuto for 13th in all of baseball. If you really want to cherry-pick, Correa’s ridiculous .386/.432/.670 slash over 95 plate appearances since Sept. 4 give him the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball during that time (216).

There’s no denying that Correa’s counting stats will be down from their 2021 levels when the season draws to a close. It’s at least possible that he swats another five homers and ends up tying last year’s mark off 26 long balls, though with nine games to play, it’s also unlikely. He’s not going to drive in as many runs as he did in ’21, and some of that is due to a curious power outage with runners in scoring position this season. It’s also due, however, to the simple fact that with Houston in 2021, Correa came to the plate 187 times with runners in scoring position and 304 times with men on base. This season, those numbers are currently at 116 and 248. He hasn’t been as good in big spots as he was a year ago, but also simply hasn’t had as many big spots, thanks to a Twins lineup that has routinely relied on minor league placeholders to fill in for injured regulars.

On the whole, aside from a slight dip in power (which correlates with the league-wide drop in power this season), Correa’s production at the plate in 2022 looks quite similar to in 2021. He’s hitting .289/.365/.468 as a Twin and hit .279/.366/.485 in his final season as an Astro. This year’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity is just barely shy of last year’s 90.2 mph exit velocity. He’s barreling balls more often this year than last (11.5% to 9.4%), and his overall hard-hit rate (43.8%) is a bit better than his 2021 level as well (42.5%). Essentially, Statcast feels he’s been almost the same hitter in Minneapolis as he was in Houston.

The biggest change in Correa’s valuations this season has been on the defensive side of things. His defensive ratings are down across the board, although Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg him as a clearly above-average shortstop — just not the all-world, best-in-MLB-regardless-of-position defender he was in 2021. Statcast feels differently, dinging Correa at four outs below average — his first negative OAA mark since 2016.

Having just celebrated his 28th birthday last week, it seems unlikely Correa’s defensive skills have simply eroded. Repeating last year’s career-best 20 Defensive Runs Saved and massive 12 Outs Above Average was always going to be a challenge; defensive stats often oscillate just like their offensive counterparts, and the likely bet is that he’ll again be above-average across the board in 2023. He’s only made eight errors this season, six of which have been of the throwing variety. That only tells the tales of the balls Correa has gotten to, of course — hence the pitfalls of raw fielding percentage — but it does illustrate that Correa hasn’t become a clumsy-handed butcher who’s booting the routine plays.

Overall, Correa has been worth 5.0 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference, and 4.2 WAR per FanGraphs. His .289/.365/.468 batting line is 40% better than league-average after adjusting for league and home park, by measure of wRC+, and he’s been lauded throughout the season by teammates, coaches and the front office staff alike for his influence leadership and influence in the clubhouse. It’s not necessarily the best-case outcome the Twins might’ve hoped for when signing him, but a strong four-to-five win season and positive off-the-field impact is a strong outcome all the same.

Correa has said at multiple times this season that he and his family feel at home in Minnesota and that he’s open to, if not hopeful for a long-term offer to stay with the Twins long term. That, of course, is a sensible thing for any pending free agent to say, and the fact that he’s open to a long-term deal (presumably at top-of-the-market dollars) shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s moderately notable that he’s chosen to publicly state his hope for a long-term arrangement rather than demur and say that contract talk is for the offseason, but public comments from Correa — as with most pending free agents — can be taken with a grain of salt.

The reality is that while Correa might never find the ten-year deal and $35MM-ish annual value he was likely seeking last offseason, he can absolutely find a long-term pact that will trounce the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his current contract with the Twins. Correa can very realistically command more than $30MM per year over a long term — likely with additional opt-out opportunities baked into the deal. Because of his age, even a ten-year deal would still only run through his age-37 season. Opting out has long seemed to be the likeliest outcome for Correa, as noted on last month’s update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings (where Correa placed fourth).

Correa’s torrid production has only improved his stock since that time. The Phillies, Cubs and Giants are reported to be among the teams that will look at free-agent shortstops. The Twins have already expressed public interest in extending the relationship. The Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers will all have their own star shortstops reach the market, creating potential openings for all three (in-house options notwithstanding). The Cardinals and Angels could need shortstops. The Orioles could theoretically be lurking and have already signaled that their payroll will increase.

The free-agent market for shortstops should be strong, and Correa’s standing among the 15 most-productive hitters in the sport over the final two months of the season has likely silenced any inkling of a doubt regarding his opt-out clause. The Twins shocked baseball in March when they signed Correa in the first place. It would register as an even bigger shock if Correa now forgoes his opportunity to return to the market on the heels of a season — and a finish — this strong.

Giants Interested In Free Agent Shortstops This Offseason

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The Giants could be one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, given their limited payroll commitments and many areas of need. The club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently spoke about how “everything is on the table” this winter, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they would “love” to go after one of the top shortstop free agents if they don’t sign Aaron Judge.

Judge will undoubtedly be the top free agent on the market, based on his career track record and incredible platform season. He’s already hit 55 home runs on the year and has produced an overall batting line of .307/.410/.679. That amounts to an unbelievable 202 wRC+, indicating Judge has somehow been 102% better than the league average hitter. When combined with solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, he’s already racked up 9.3 wins above replacement on the season in the estimation of FanGraphs and 8.7 at Baseball Reference.

Given that Judge grew up in the Bay Area, he’s often been speculatively connected to the Giants, though it would take a sizeable commitment on the team’s part for that to come to fruition. Back in April, Judge and the Yankees failed to reach an agreement on an extension, with the slugger reportedly turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM deal. Judge was apparently looking for $36MM over nine or ten years, a range of $324-360MM. Now that Judge is having his best season yet and will soon be able to court offers from the 29 other teams, it’s entirely possible that he will now try to do even better than that.

The Giants haven’t operated at anywhere near that level since Zaidi took over in November of 2018, having not yet given out a contract longer than three years in his tenure. However, that means that the team’s ledger is fairly clear, giving the club the opportunity to change course. There’s only about $89MM committed for next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players like Mike Yastrzemski or Logan Webb, but it does include $22.5MM for Carlos Rodon, who is almost certainly going to opt out and return to free agency. They have just over $20MM committed to 2024 and nothing for 2025 and beyond. Given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and have been as high as $200MM in 2018, there’s room for a big splash if they want to make it.

If the club can’t successfully bring Judge back to the neighborhood, it seems that pursuing a shortstop will be another option they will consider. Of course, the club already has a shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has been a mainstay there for over a decade, having made his debut in 2011. Last year was a revelation for Crawford, as he suddenly produced the best campaign of his career after a few rough seasons. He hit .298/.373/.522 in 2021, producing a 138 wRC+ that was 25 points better than his previous career high. When combined with his excellent defensive work, he produced 6.3 wins above replacement, in the estimation of FanGraphs, easily eclipsing his previous high of 4.4.

In the midst of that excellent showing, the Giants and Crawford agreed to a two-year, $32MM extension, though the first season has been a disappointment. Crawford has been battling a knee injury for most of the year, going on the IL twice because of it. When healthy enough to take the field, he hasn’t been able to produce at anywhere near his 2021 output. He’s hitting .226/.305/.346 on the season for a wRC+ of 85, with his defensive numbers also not as impressive as last year.

Crawford still has one year remaining on that extension but will be turning 36 in January. Given his age, knee issues and diminished performance, it seems the Giants are willing to consider a bold move to strengthen their infield. Since the field of available shortstops is going to be strong again this year, it might be prudent to strike early, even if it means Crawford and another shortstop sharing the roster for one season. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are both on the cusp of free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts both expected to opt out of their respective contracts and join them.

The Giants have also been significantly held back by their defense this year, with a collective -30 Outs Above Average and -33 Defensive Runs Saved, both of those numbers placing them 28th in the majors. Ultimate Zone Rating gives them a -28.6, which is 29th. Second base has been a particularly rough area, with the team’s collective numbers at the keystone coming in at -5 OAA (25th), -15 DRS (29th) and -2.1 UZR (21st). Having a shortstop-quality defender take over at second base, either Crawford or an outside addition, might be a good way for the club to take a step forward next year, especially with the ban on extreme defensive shifts going into place next season.

Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores have taken the bulk of playing time at second base this season, though each is capable of playing other positions and arguably better utilized away from second. Estrada has a -10 DRS at second and Flores a -6 this year, with each of them putting up better numbers at the other positions they’ve played. Estrada has yet to reach arbitration and Flores is eschewing free agency after agreeing to a two-year extension, reported earlier today.

Each of the Turner/Swanson/Correa/Bogaerts group will likely command a lesser contract than Judge, though that doesn’t mean they will be cheap. All four of them are currently younger than 30 years old, with Xander crossing that threshold on October 1. That means each of them will likely be looking for lengthy contracts. This past offseason, Corey Seager got ten years, Marcus Semien got seven, with Trevor Story and Javier Baez each getting six. Correa ended up settling for a three-year deal, though with a high average annual value of $35.1MM and opt-outs after each season. Similar to any Judge contract, the Giants would likely have to break their pattern of sticking to short-term deals in order to make an impact in the shortstop market. Should they miss out on all of the upper tier options, there’s a significant drop to the next level, which will be occupied by players like Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus.

All told, it should be a fascinating winter for the Giants and their fans. The club has been keeping its books mostly clear for years and has stayed busy on the waiver wire, grabbing just about any role player they could find. That’s left the roster in a position where they have solid depth all around the roster but a lack of truly outstanding players. 10 different position players have produced at least 0.5 fWAR for the Giants on the season but none higher than 2.3 so far. Perhaps the conditions are right for them to raise the ceiling in the months to come.

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Cubs Notes: Free Agency, Hendricks, Reyes

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Although the Cubs generally sat out last winter’s star-studded free agent market for shortstops, there’s already been ample speculation that they’ll be more aggressive on that front in the 2022-23 offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added to that this week in his podcast, voicing a belief that the Cubs “will get” one of the marquee shortstops on this year’s market. As profiled in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR yesterday, the class includes Trea Turner, Carlos Correa (who’s expected to opt out of the final two years and $70.7MM of his Twins deal this winter), Xander Bogaerts (who’ll opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his Red Sox deal) and Dansby Swanson.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive statements regarding who’ll sign where over the winter, and it bears emphasizing that speculation this time of year often doesn’t align with reality when the offseason dust settles. (A year ago this time, the common speculation was that Correa would reunite with former Astros skipper AJ Hinch in Detroit. A few years back, Patrick Corbin and the Yankees were linked to one another just about every week.) Signing one of the “big” shortstops would likely require the largest commitment the Cubs have made since signing Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126MM contract in free agency — and each of the four can be reasonably expected to clear that sum on the open market this year.

Correa was reported to be a target of the Cubs last winter, but he revealed in a July interview with Gordon Wittenmyer that in spite of some conversation, he never received an actual offer. The Cubs ultimately signed the recently released Andrelton Simmons to a one-year, $4MM deal.

More from Wrigley…

  • The Cubs aren’t certain whether they’ll get Kyle Hendricks back this season, although manager David Ross tells reporters that the right-hander’s latest MRI revealed only continued inflammation and some indications that the 32-year-old is “getting better” (link via Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago). Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since July 5, will be shut down for an additional week, at which point the Cubs’ medical staff will reevaluate him. Hendricks, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract extension, posted a 4.80 ERA through 16 starts when healthy enough to pitch. For the time being, the team’s focus is solely on getting Hendricks healthy and not necessarily on getting him back into game shape, Ross suggested, which makes sense for a player who’s signed for $14MM next season on a team with no postseason hopes. “I don’t think getting him back in games is a top priority for everyone,” said Ross. “But if he is able to get to that space, I think that’s a win for everyone.”
  • “Cubs bench coach Andy Green and assistant hitting coach know recently claimed slugger Franmil Reyes quite well from the trio’s time together in San Diego, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times points out. Green admitted to “fist pumping” when he learned the club had been awarded the waiver claim on Reyes, and both he and Washington effused praise for Reyes’ clubhouse demeanor and energy. As Lee explores, the Cubs’ decision to option Frank Schwindel following the Reyes claim — much like the decision to option David Bote after acquiring Zach McKinstry — signal a shift to beginning to evaluate newly acquired and/or untested players over the season’s final few months rather than sticking with struggling veterans whom the club knows a bit better.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

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