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Elieser Hernandez

Mets Place Six Players On Outright Waivers

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The Mets have put six players on outright waivers, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Outfielder Tim Locastro and pitchers Denyi Reyes, Bryce Montes de Oca, John Curtiss, Elieser Hernández and Peyton Battenfield are now available to other clubs.

Locastro, best known for his speed, got into 43 games. He hit .232/.338/.393 in 67 trips to the dish. Locastro has played for four major league clubs, compiling a .228/.327/.337 slash in 290 MLB contests. He has 45 stolen bases in 50 career attempts, including a perfect 6-6 showing this year.

Reyes and Hernández were expected to be depth starters for New York in 2023. The former pitched nine times (including three starts), turning in a 7.78 ERA across 19 2/3 innings. Hernández never pitched as a Met. Acquired in a trade with the Marlins last offseason, he spent almost the whole season on the injured list with shoulder and pectoral concerns.

Curtiss pitched 15 times for New York after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.58 ERA through 19 2/3 innings. His season ended a bit early when he underwent surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow, although he is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Montes de Oca lost the entire ’23 campaign after undergoing a Tommy John procedure in March. New York claimed Battenfield off waivers from the Guardians in the season’s final month, keeping him in Triple-A. Neither Montes de Oca nor Battenfield have the requisite service time to become free agents. They’d remain with the Mets as non-roster players if they clear waivers. The others will likely choose free agency unless another team places a claim.

Mets Designate Zach Muckenhirn For Assignment

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The Mets have designated left-hander Zach Muckenhirn for assignment, tweets Will Sammon of The Athletic. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Elieser Hernandez, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Syracuse. Hernandez has been out all season due to a shoulder strain.

Muckenhirn, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Mets over the winter and made his big league debut earlier this season. He’s tallied six innings in the Majors, yielding four runs on 11 hits and a pair of walks with three strikeouts. His work in Triple-A has produced far better results; Muckenhirn boasts a sensational 0.88 ERA in 30 2/3 frames, although his 15.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate don’t exactly support that minuscule ERA. Muckenhirn has induced grounders at a hearty 50% clip, but he’s also benefited from a .230 average on balls in play and a mammoth 95.2% strand rate in Syracuse so far.

Now that he’s been designated for assignment, Muckenhirn will either be traded, placed on outright waivers or released within the week. He still has all three minor league option years remaining (2023 included), so between that and his strong performance in Triple-A, Muckenhirn could well hold appeal to other clubs in search of left-handed bullpen depth.

At times, the 28-year-old Hernandez has looked like a solid big league starter with the division-rival Marlins. From 2020-21, he started 17 games with Miami and notched a 3.84 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates of 26.4% and 5.7%, respectively. That production came in a sample of 77 1/3 innings thanks to a lat strain, biceps inflammation and a quad strain. His 2022 season was nightmarish, however. Hernandez struggled en route to a 6.35 ERA, losing his rotation spot along the way. Hernandez’s strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction last year, and his average of 2.74 homers per nine innings pitched is one of the higher marks from a pitcher in recent memory.

Those red flags notwithstanding, Hernandez is a 28-year-old righty who’s only one year removed from quality rotation work spread across two seasons. He’s allowed two runs on six hits and a walk with 10 punchouts across a pair of rehab starts thus far. Hernandez will continue building up in Syracuse and figures to be in the mix should the Mets need to further tap into their rotation depth again in the season’s second half.

Mets Select Michael Pérez

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The Mets announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Michael Pérez. He will take the roster spot of fellow backstop Tomás Nido who has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 7, due to dry eye syndrome. Right-hander Elieser Hernández was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Pérez. Tim Healey of Newsday previously reported that Pérez was with the club in Cincinnati while Mike Puma of the New York Post first reported on Nido’s IL placement.

The Mets will now be without both of their Opening Day catchers, as Omar Narváez landed on the IL after just five games due to a significant calf strain and Nido now joins him on the shelf. The injury to Narváez opened playing time for prospect Francisco Álvarez but now Nido’s absence will require the club to reach into its depth yet again.

Pérez, 30, was acquired from the Pirates in a trade last July but was outrighted by the club in October. He became a free agent in the winter but rejoined the Mets on a minor league deal and has been playing in Triple-A so far this year. In 19 games for Syracuse, he’s hit just .153/.261/.254, but with encouraging peripherals. He’s walked at a strong 13% clip and struck out in just 17.4% of his plate appearances, with that paltry batting line being weighed down by a .152 batting average on balls in play.

He’s seen part-time action in the big leagues in each of the five previous seasons, suiting up for the Rays, Pirates and Mets. He owns a career batting line of .174/.244/.301 over 591 plate appearances in the big leagues. On the defensive side of things, his framing is considered subpar but he’s been worth four Defensive Runs Saved in his career and grades out well on Statcast’s new caught stealing above average metric. He’ll figures to serve as the backup to Álvarez at least until one of Narváez or Nido get back. He still has an option year remaining and could potentially be sent back to Syracuse easily when that time comes.

As for Nido, he’s out to a terrible start this year, hitting just .118/.148/.118. Perhaps this vision issue provides some explanation for why he’s so far off his career line of .213/.250/.309. It doesn’t seem to be especially serious, as manager Buck Showalter expects him to be fine in three or four days, per Healey.

As for Hernández, he’s been on the injured list all year so far due to a right shoulder strain. He doesn’t seem especially close to a return, given that he hasn’t even begun a rehab assignment. The 60-day count begins from his initial IL placement, meaning he’ll be eligible to return in a few weeks if he’s healthy.

The Mets’ Options If Jose Quintana Misses Time

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The Mets entered spring training with a deep but revamped rotation. Gone were longtime ace Jacob deGrom and steady right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. In their place, the Mets signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, NPB star Kodai Senga and veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who had a resurgent campaign between the Pirates and Cardinals this past season.

That the first injury of the season for manager Buck Showalter’s club came from the typically durable Quintana is both unexpected and unwelcome news. The 34-year-old southpaw logged 32 starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis in 2022, logging an excellent 2.93 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate. It was a vintage Quintana showing, hearkening back to his peak years in Chicago — and it was impressive enough to land him a two-year, $26MM contract (13 times larger than the one-year, $2MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh one winter ago).

Quintana will be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, however, owing to a stress fracture in his rib. There’s no sense running wild with speculation as to whether that’ll amount to weeks or months at this juncture, but at the very least, Opening Day doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Quintana exited after just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League start due to discomfort, so this isn’t likely to be an injury he can just pitch through.

If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that even through all of the turnover in the rotation, they’ve managed to maintain a solid amount of depth beyond the projected Opening Day quintet of Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. There were times when the team appeared open to moving Carrasco, but the early setback for Quintana highlights the importance of retaining him and so much of the other depth from which they could’ve dealt.

To that end, with what looks to be at least a short-term vacancy in the rotation, let’s run through the Mets’ options to fill the spot.

The Two Favorites

David Peterson, LHP, 27 years old

About as overqualified a sixth starter as you’ll find in the league, Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Mets: two of them good and the middle one (2021) quite bad. The lefty sandwiched an ugly 5.54 ERA between a pair of sub-4.00 efforts, with the end result being a solid 4.26 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.14 SIERA) in 222 innings at the big league level.

Peterson leaned more heavily on his four-seamer and slider than ever before in 2022, dropping his sinker/two-seam usage from 26.3% in 2021 to 12.3% last season. He posted career-best totals in swinging-strike rate (12.8%), opponents’ chase rate (31.2%) and opponents’ contact rate (71.2%). It’s tempting to think that some of those gains might be from working out of the bullpen for a spell, but while Peterson had similar ERAs as a starter and a reliever, he had better strikeout and walk rates while working out of the rotation.

Fresh off a season that saw him toss 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.4% grounder rate, Peterson is the ostensible front-runner to take any early starts that Quintana might miss. Other clubs surely had interest in him this winter — particularly once the Mets had signed all three of Verlander, Senga and Quintana — but the decision to hold onto him is already paying off.

Tylor Megill, RHP, 27

If Peterson is the favorite, Megill might not be all that far behind. He made 18 respectable starts in 2021, pitching to a 4.52 ERA with more impressive strikeout and walk rates (26.1% and 7.1%, respectively). In 2022, when the Mets needed a starter, Megill stepped up and took the ball on six occasions from April 7 through May 4, pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA with a gaudy 36-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings of work. His fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph in 2021, was up to nearly 96 mph on average in 2022, and Megill suddenly looked like far more than a band-aid on an injury-marred starting staff — at least until the injury bug bit him, too.

The Mets placed Megill on the 15-day injured list with biceps inflammation on May 12, just days after he was tattooed for eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals. He returned on June 10, made a pair of starts that lasted 3 1/3 frames apiece (yielding a combined six runs in the process) and went back on the IL just seven days after being activated — this time due to a shoulder strain. The absence proved far more substantial this time around. Megill was transferred to the 60-day IL just 10 days after his original placement, and he remained sidelined all the way until Sept. 19.

In his career, Megill has overwhelmed right-handed opponents with a power fastball/slider combination, but his changeup has been generally ineffective, leaving him susceptible to left-handed batters. That bears out in his alarming platoon splits. Righties have been downright flummoxed by him, batting only .202/.247/.331. Lefty bats, however, have absolutely clobbered Megill at a .307/.368/.568 clip. He’ll have a chance to win the job, but if he’s going to find long-term success, he’ll need to find a better offering to neutralize opponents in platoon settings.

Longer Shots Who Could Start At Some Point In 2023

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, 29

Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to San Diego, Lucchesi made 11 solid appearances for the Mets in 2021, serving in this exact type of sixth starter role that’s now resurfaced in Queens. Eight of those appearances were starts, and the former fourth-round pick worked to a decent 4.46  ERA with a more-impressive 3.40 FIP and 3.79 SIERA. Lucchesi punched out a strong 26.1% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.1% walk rate. He might’ve held that role down the stretch — and into 2022 — had he remained healthy, but a late-June diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament led to Tommy John surgery. Lucchesi missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 campaign.

Early in his career with the Friars, Lucchesi looked the part of a solid fourth starter, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 56 starts and 293 2/3 innings from 2018-19. He’s thrown just 44 innings since that time, due primarily to injury, but he owns a 4.24 ERA in 337 2/3 big league innings. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Mets can send him to Triple-A Syracuse to stay stretched out and monitor his workload if they go another route in the rotation. Given that he missed all of the 2022 season, Lucchesi is likely to have his innings capped this season, which probably works against him — especially in the early stages.

Elieser Hernandez, RHP, 27

An offseason acquisition made with an eye toward bolstering the pitching depth, Hernandez came over alongside reliever Jeff Brigham in a deal sending minor leaguers Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum to Miami. He’s fresh off a tough 2022 season, but the former Rule 5 pick — the Marlins selected him out of the Astros organization in 2017 — was once a promising member of the Marlins’ young core of arms. From 2020-21, he pitched 77 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with plus strikeout (26.3%) and walk (5.7%) rates.

Home runs and injuries have been a problem for Hernandez throughout his career, however. His breakout 2020 campaign was shortened by a lat strain, and his 2021 season was interrupted both by a strained quadriceps and inflammation in his right biceps. He’s only shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors, but Hernandez also sports a stout 2.86 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 129 Triple-A frames spread across parts of four seasons. He has a minor league option remaining,  but he could also make the club as a long reliever.

Jose Butto, RHP, 25

Butto, who’ll turn 26 in less than two weeks, made his big league debut last year when he tossed four innings but was knocked around by the Phillies, who scored seven runs against him at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t a great first impression, but Butto nonetheless had a strong year in the minors, logging a combined 3.56 ERA in 129 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Scouting reports at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs laud Butto’s plus changeup and above-average heater, but he lacks a third offering, leading to plenty of speculation that he’ll ultimately settle in as a long reliever or swingman. There’s more upside here if he can improve either his curveball or his slider, but he’d be hard-pressed to leapfrog the names ahead of him for starts early in the season. Still, he’s already gotten his feet wet in the Majors and had success in the upper minors, so with some improvements to his secondary pitches and/or a big early performance in Syracuse, Butto could find himself making some starts at some point this year, as injuries on the big league roster necessitate.

—

As far as non-roster options go, the Mets are generally light on MLB-ready starting pitching in the upper levels of their system (beyond the 40-man names already covered above). Recent trades have thinned out some of that depth, with both J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller going to the A’s for Chris Bassitt, while Thomas Szapucki went to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf swap. Most of the Mets’ very best prospects are position players, and the top-ranked pitchers in their system are generally multiple years from MLB readiness.

The presence of Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez and Butto gives the Mets ample depth from which to draw, particularly given how solid both Peterson and Megill looked at times last year. Still, pitcher performance is volatile and injuries are inevitable. If the Mets want to further cultivate some depth, there are a handful of recognizable veteran names who’ve yet to sign — Michael Pineda, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy among them. Whether that trio, or any of the other remaining starters on the market, is willing to take a minor league deal remains to be seen.

Failing that, the Mets can perhaps keep an eye on other veterans around the league who are currently on minor league/non-roster deals. Many of those pitchers have opt-out opportunities if they don’t make their current club’s roster or upward mobility clauses that allow them to leave the current organization if another team is willing to offer an immediate 40-man roster spot.

For the time being, it doesn’t appear particularly crucial for the Mets to make another addition, but a second injury in the rotation would start to leave an otherwise strong staff looking vulnerable, and there’s little harm in stockpiling depth to the extent possible.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Marlins Acquire Jake Mangum From Mets

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The Marlins have acquired minor league outfielder Jake Mangum from the Mets, tweets Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s the player to be named later in the deal that sent Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham to Queens last month.

A college star at Mississippi State, Mangum hit .357/.420/.457 over four seasons in Starkville. A fourth-round senior sign in the 2019 draft, the switch-hitter has played three seasons in the New York farm system. He owns a .284/.346/.414 line in just under 900 professional plate appearances, including a .333/.365/.471 showing in 33 games for Triple-A Syracuse this year.

Mangum, 26, doesn’t bring much power to the table. Yet he puts the ball in play frequently and is capable of playing center field, giving him a chance to carve out a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Baseball America slotted him as the #28 prospect in the New York system entering the 2022 campaign.

Despite his decent minor league numbers, the Mets decided not to add Mangum to the 40-man roster to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft. He went unselected in that process this afternoon, and the Marlins acquired him within hours of ensuring they wouldn’t lose him in the Rule 5. He won’t require a 40-man roster spot in Miami, meaning he’ll provide the Fish some upper level non-roster depth.

Mets To Acquire Elieser Hernandez, Jeff Brigham From Marlins

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12:59pm: The clubs have each announced the deal. In addition to Sanchez, the Marlins will receive a player to be named later or cash.

10:39am: The Mets are set to acquire right-handers Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham from the Marlins, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Minor league righty Franklin Sanchez is headed back to Miami in return. Both Hernandez and Brigham were designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this week.

The acquisitions of Hernandez and Brigham will give the Mets some needed depth in both the rotation and the bullpen, where they’re currently faced with the prospect of losing significant chunks of their staff. Starters Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are all free agents, and while the Mets already re-signed Edwin Diaz, they’ve also seen Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Trevor Williams reach the open market.

Elieser Hernandez

Both Hernandez and Brigham have a minor league option year remaining — two, in Brigham’s case — and therefore shouldn’t be seen as locks to occupy a spot on next year’s Opening Day staff for the Mets. That said, Hernandez has four-plus year of MLB experience and Brigham has three, so they’re a bit more seasoned than the garden-variety DFA pickup.

Hernandez, in particular, has at times looked like a potentially solid big league starter. From 2020-21, he made 17 starts for the Fish and pitched to a 3.84 ERA with strong strikeout and walk rates alike — 26.4% and 5.7%, respectively. That came in a sample of just 77 1/3 innings, thanks largely to a series of injuries. A lat strain in 2020, follow by biceps inflammation and a quad strain in 2021, combined to limit Hernandez’s time on the mound. Still, for a righty who’d been pitching in his age-25 and age-26 seasons, it was an encouraging sample from which to draw.

The 2022 campaign, however, was another story. Hernandez opened the season in Miami’s rotation but lost his spot and wound up splitting his workload evenly between 10 starts and 10 bullpen outings. The end result was a dismal 6.35 ERA, fueled in part by his strikeout rate (21.6%) and walk rate (7.9%) trending in the wrong directions. Home runs have long been an issue for Hernandez but never more so than this past season, when he yielded a staggering 2.74 homers per nine innings pitched. Put another way, a stunning 6.8% of the hitters who came the plate against Hernandez connected on a home run.

Those red flags notwithstanding, Hernandez is a 27-year-old righty who’s only one year removed from quality rotation work spread across two seasons. Since he can be optioned to Triple-A, he’s likely viewed as a sixth or seventh option in the rotation, should injuries necessitate such a move. An excellent Spring Training could put him in the mix for a spot on the Opening Day staff, of course, but even if he’s ticketed for Syracuse to begin the ’23 season, he’s a better rotation fallback than many clubs have in the upper minors. Hernandez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.8MM in 2023. That’s more than some clubs might prefer to pay for a depth option, but the deep-pocketed Mets are likely more comfortable with that possibility (and could always look to sign Hernandez to a split contract with separate rates of pay in the Majors and Triple-A).

Turning to the 30-year-old Brigham, he’s coming off a more successful 2022 campaign. In 24 innings with the Marlins, he worked to a 3.38 ERA with a strong 27.7% strikeout rate against a 9.9% walk rate.

Brigham missed the entire 2021 campaign and much of this past season while dealing with a nerve injury in his right biceps, so durability is something of a concern, but dating back to 2019 he’s pitched about a full season’s worth of innings (63 1/3) with a 4.12 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. This past season’s 94.7 mph average heater was down from its 96.6 mph peak in 2019, but the results were still sound. As with recent waiver claim Stephen Ridings, Brigham is likely viewed as an optionable depth piece who can perhaps vie for one of the final spots in what should be a new-look Mets bullpen this winter. He’s projected for a modest $800K salary in 2023.

As for the Marlins’ return, they’ll acquire the 22-year-old Sanchez, who posted a combined 3.79 ERA in 35 2/3 innings across two Class-A levels in 2022. Sanchez fanned 27.1% of his opponents, a strong mark, but also walked an untenable 13.5% of hitters he faced. The Marlins sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he was tagged for nine runs in 7 1/3 innings and walked more hitters (six) than he struck out (five).

Sanchez didn’t rank among the Mets’ top prospects at any Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB.com, though that’s not really a surprise for a pitcher who’s being swapped out for a pair of recent DFAs. He’ll give the Marlins a young arm with bat-missing capabilities but also some glaring command issues — the type of project arm often included as a lottery ticket in minor swaps of this nature.

Marlins Designate Elieser Hernandez, Four Others For Assignment

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The Marlins have announced a number of designations on Rule 5 protection day. Right-handers Elieser Hernandez, Nick Neidert, Jeff Brigham, José Devers and Lewin Diaz for assignment (h/t to Joe Frisaro). In corresponding moves, Miami added George Soriano, Josh Simpson and Eli Villalobos onto the roster.

Brigham threw 24 innings of 3.38 ERA ball out of the Marlins’ bullpen this year, posting solid strikeout (27.7%) and walk (9.9%) rates. Those are decent enough results that should leave Brigham with options for 2023, but the 30-year-old was arbitration eligible and a likely non-tender candidate, so the Marlins opted to cut him loose in favor of a freed up 40-man spot. Neidert and Hernandez are the others pitchers Miami cut loose. Neidert only appeared in one game for the Marlins this year, but had a 1.96 ERA at Triple-A in 46 innings. Hernandez struggled mightily in the big leagues, winding up with a 6.35 ERA across 62 1/3 innings.

Miami also parted ways with hitters Devers and Diaz. Devers appeared in 21 games as a middle infielder, slashing .244/.304/.317 without a home run. Diaz has struggled in parts of three seasons in the big leagues for Miami. The first baseman hit just .169/.224/.288 with five home runs in 174 plate appearances this year. He did grade out well defensively, but his lifetime .181/.227/.340 line was never going to be enough from a bat-first position.

The Marlins used the open spots to add a trio of intriguing arms to their 40-man roster. Villalobos blew away Triple-A hitters in 17 1/3 innings this year, striking out 26 and posting a 1.04 ERA. Simpson did the same, striking out 23 batters in 12 1/3 innings after being called up from Double-A. Soriano didn’t post any big strikeout numbers, but the 2.49 ERA he wound up with over 47 Triple-A innings was certainly enough promise to earn him a spot on the 40-man. All three are now a chance to feature in the Marlins’ bullpen in 2023.

Marlins Activate Elieser Hernandez, Designate Aneurys Zabala For Assignment

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The Marlins have activated right-hander Elieser Hernandez from the injured list and designated Aneurys Zabala for assignment, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).

Hernandez has long been thought of as a potential rotation stalwart for the Marlins, but the 27-year-old struggled mightily to start the year. After nine starts and five relief appearances, Hernandez holds a 6.11 ERA (6.81 FIP) across 53 frames on the year.

It isn’t clear what Hernandez’s role will be upon his return. He could be asked to step into a rotation currently missing both Trevor Rogers and recent debutant Max Meyer. Should manager Don Mattingly prefer to move forward with Jesus Lazardo, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera behind Pablo Lopez and Cy Young contender Sandy Alcantara, though, he may instead slot into a bullpen that recently lost both Zach Pop and Anthony Bass in a deadline trade with the Blue Jays.

Something of a minor-league journeyman, the 25-year-old Zabala made his big-league debut this season and allowed no earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of action. He’s logged a 5.58 ERA in parts of eight seasons in the minors between the Mariners’, Dodgers’, Reds’, Phillies’, and Marlins’ systems. Should he clear waivers, he’ll likely head back to Triple-A Jacksonville, where he pitched 11 2/3 innings 10.03 ERA ball early in the season.

Pre-Break Sweep Raises Questions About Marlins’ Deadline Outlook

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With the trade deadline two weeks away, a good portion of the league has a general idea of how they plan to approach things. 16 teams either occupy or are within two games of a playoff spot. Barring a massive losing streak coming out of the All-Star Break, those clubs figure to explore ways to improve the 2022 roster. 11 more teams are six or more games out of the playoff race, and with the exception of the Rangers, they’ve all been outscored by 30+ runs on the year. How aggressively they’ll sell will vary, but there’s little reason for those teams to not at least explore the possibility of dealing some impending free agents.

That leaves three teams in a somewhat nebulous middle ground. The Orioles and White Sox each sit 3 1/2 back in the AL Wild Card standings, while Chicago is three out in the division race. MLBTR examined the Orioles’ deadline dilemma last week, while the White Sox seem likely to stay the course and hope for better second halves from some key players. The final team between two and six games out is the Marlins, whose deadline approach figures to be tied quite heavily to how they perform in the first week out of the break.

Miami was within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot as recently as last Friday. A weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies, who moved into a tie for the NL’s third Wild Card spot in the process, dropped the Fish to 43-48 and 5 1/2 out. It was a brutal three games that dealt a real hit in the standings — the club’s playoff probability fell from 7.6% to 2.7% over the weekend, according to FanGraphs’ estimates — but the Marlins will have an opportunity to salvage their postseason hopes before the August 2 trade deadline. Miami kicks off the unofficial second half with a standalone game against Texas before hosting Pittsburgh (three games) and going to Cincinnati (four games). If the Marlins can take six of those eight contests, they’d be back around .500 heading into their pre-deadline series against the NL East-leading Mets. Going 4-4 or even 5-3 over those relatively soft first two series probably wouldn’t be enough to deter general manager Kim Ng and her group from dealing some near-term talent.

Another full teardown seems unlikely. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Miami owner Bruce Sherman didn’t want to orchestrate a deadline sell-off “barring a collapse” from the team. Exactly what constitutes a “collapse” in Sherman’s and Ng’s eyes obviously isn’t clear, but it seems unlikely one sweep would cause Miami to totally reevaluate whether they want to move a controllable star like Pablo López. Yet even if Miami isn’t willing to part with their most valuable trade pieces this summer, they could make a few decent role playing types available.

Who might be attainable if the Marlins do decide to sell?

Garrett Cooper, 1B/DH

Cooper has been frequently mentioned as a trade candidate on MLBTR’s pages over the past couple years. The 31-year-old is a consistently good hitter when healthy, but he’d missed notable time each season from 2018-21. Cooper has avoided the injured list this season (aside from a very brief stint for virus symptoms) and played his way to an All-Star Game for the first time. He owns a .283/.349/.434 line with seven home runs and 21 doubles through 327 plate appearances. Throughout his career, he’s shown a knack for running strong batting averages on balls in play. He makes a lot of hard contact, hits plenty of line drives and generally uses the whole field to hit for gap power, even as he’s never hit more than 15 homers in a season.

Miami has resisted trading Cooper to this point, but he’s down to his final season and a half of club control. He’s only making $2.5MM this year, but that’s likely to jump to the $5MM range for his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s certainly not onerous but the Marlins annually run a bottom ten payroll and this could be the best chance to recoup decent prospect value while Cooper’s healthy. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this month that the Dodgers could have interest.

Jon Berti, INF/OF

Berti’s a versatile speedster who’s having a career-best season. He’s hitting .271/.365/.375 with a pair of home runs and an excellent 12.2% walk rate across 222 plate appearances. That plate discipline has allowed Berti to reach base quite frequently, and he’s wrecked havoc once there. He has swiped 28 bases on the year, six more than anyone else in MLB despite only playing in around 64% of the team’s games. Berti’s slash-and-dash approach is rare, but he’s making it work and had earned a role at the top of the Miami lineup before going on the 10-day injured list late last week with a mild left groin strain.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on his return, and perhaps the injury will rule him out as a trade candidate. If it’s minor enough he returns before the deadline and looks no worse for wear as a runner, though, it stands to reason he’ll draw interest from contenders. In addition to his baserunning acumen, he’s started multiple games at each of third base, second base, shortstop, and in left field this year. Miami can control him through 2025, so they don’t have to make a deal even if they move some other players, but he’s already 32 years old and having perhaps a career season. This’ll probably be the apex of his trade value, particularly since this year’s infield market is very thin.

Brian Anderson, 3B/COF

It’s unlikely the Marlins deal both Berti and Anderson, but they may have enough infield depth to feel comfortable parting with one of the two. Miami acquired Joey Wendle from the Rays over the winter, intending to supplant Anderson at third base after he underperformed in 2021. Wendle has been solid when healthy but missed a notable stretch between May and June with hamstring troubles. That afforded Anderson more playing time at the hot corner than anticipated, and he’s bounced back with a solid .262/.358/.393 showing across 193 plate appearances.

Anderson, 29, is controllable through the end of next season via arbitration. He’s already making $4.475MM this year and will earn a bit of a bump during his final season of arb-eligibility. As with Cooper, it’s possible Miami sees this as an opportunity to bring in some young talent while reallocating the projected 2023 salary elsewhere. Anderson is a good player, a well-rounded everyday third baseman. Yet Miami already has Wendle and Berti as options at the position, and they signed Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler to multi-year deals over the winter to plug the corner outfield. It’s a deep collection of corner players that might squeeze Anderson out of the mix.

Elieser Hernández, RHP

Hernández would be more of a change-of-scenery candidate than a solution for a contender. Throughout his big league tenure, he’s shown a strong combination of strikeouts and walks but given up far too many home runs. He’s taken that to a particular extreme in 2022, serving up a staggering 18 longballs in 53 innings (3.06 HR/9). That’s far and away a career-worst mark for a pitcher who was already one of the league’s most homer-prone arms. Unsurprisingly, Hernández has an ERA above 6.00 and lost his spot in the rotation in May.

Perhaps the home run troubles are so pronounced there won’t be much interest. Hernández hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the yard even in one of the game’s more spacious home parks. Still, we’ve seen teams place bets on pitchers like Andrew Heaney and Yusei Kikuchi over the years, valuing strikeout stuff and betting that tweaks to a pitcher’s repertoire and/or simple home run rate regression will even things out. Perhaps some team feels the same way about Hernández and will look to buy-low on a pitcher making just $1.325MM and arb-eligible through 2024.

Anthony Bass/Steven Okert/Dylan Floro, RP

Miami has a handful of capable if unexciting middle relief arms who should draw some attention from contenders. Bass, 34, is a prototypical journeyman but has posted an ERA below 4.00 in each of the past five seasons. He throws in the mid-90s, pounds the strike zone and misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. He’s making $3MM this year and has a matching club option for 2023.

Okert isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, while Floro is making $3MM and arb-eligible for one more season. A former minor league signee, Okert is a 31-year-old southpaw who has posted swinging strike rates north of 13% in each of the last two years. He’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced as a result, and he’s handled hitters from both sides of the plate. Okert struggles with walks and home runs, but a southpaw who misses bats is always likely to attract some amount of interest. Floro is essentially the polar opposite. The 31-year-old righty doesn’t throw hard or generate many whiffs, but he’s a volume strike-thrower who consistently induces grounders at a strong clip.

Longer shot possibilities

Ng and her staff could also try to find a taker for first baseman Jesús Aguilar, who is set to hit free agency at the end of the year (assuming the team declines its end of a 2023 mutual option). Interest figures to be modest for a defensively-limited player who’s hitting just .252/.299/.401 while making $7.5MM, however. It’s possible they could flip Wendle or catcher Jacob Stallings, but Miami acquired both over the winter to upgrade the lineup. With each controllable for at least another season (and Stallings having a down year), that seems unlikely.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the team will try to play its way out of any sort of sell-off. They’ll have a stretch of below .500 teams to start off, giving them an opportunity to get back into the playoff periphery. Getting swept heading into the break digs them a significant hole, though, and the Miami front office figures to field a number of calls on their veteran complementary players with dwindling windows of control.

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