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Prospect Notes: Vlad, 2018 Draftees, Twins, Franco, Pitchers

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With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
  • Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
  • Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.

Quick Hits: Allen, Holliday, Cease

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Last night, Indians reliever Cody Allen’s year-long struggles continued as he blew a save against the cellar-dwelling Royals. Allen’s latest collapse on the mound, during which he gave up back-to-back homers to a pair of rookies, prompted Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer to address whether or not the newly-acquired Brad Hand ought to be given the full-time closer job. While Hoynes does more spitballing than actual answering of the question, he does quote manager Terry Francona at one point, who says that “I’ll sit down and talk to him again because we need him. We can’t run from Cody. We need him really bad to win. So we’ll visit a little bit.” From my perspective, Allen may not only be pitching himself out of his “closer” job, but also out of a potential qualifying offer at season’s end, which he seemed a near lock to warrant at the outset of the 2018 season. That’d be bad news for a small-market Cleveland ballclub that would surely like to be rewarded for his departure with a compensatory draft pick.

A couple of items from elsewhere around the league…

  • 38-year-old Matt Holliday’s return to the Rockies became official last night, as he played left field against the Padres last night. After lingering on the free agent market all last winter in hopes of securing a major-league contract, Holliday recently joined the Rockies on a minor league pact and demolished Triple-A pitching en route to a call-up to help the MLB club, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post details in his latest piece. “I’m here to help the team in any way possible,” Holliday said of his return to the majors. “I’m just here to be part of the team and do everything I can to impact the team, as best I can.” The seven-time All-Star feels as though he’s in excellent shape, in part thanks to his tune-up in the minors. For his part, manager Bud Black is happy to have both Holliday’s playing ability and leadership in the fold as the team pushes for a playoff berth.
  • The White Sox have opted to shut down one of their top pitching prospects for the season, James Fegan of The Athletic reports via Twitter.  However, the decision isn’t related to any sort of injury. Rather, Dylan Cease has simply reached an innings threshold that the organization doesn’t wish to push him past. The 22-year-old right-hander has tossed 124 innings combined between Chicago’s High-A and Double-A affiliates, which exceeds his career high workload by about 30. Cease hasn’t faced much resistance in his ascension, posting a 1.72 ERA with Double-A Birmingham this season while racking up a whopping 78 strikeouts in just 52 1/3 innings pitched.

Cubs Notes: Bryant, White Sox, Cease

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It was on this day in 2014 that Javier Baez made his MLB debut, hitting a solo home run in the 12th inning that held up as the winning run in a Cubs victory over the Rockies.  Baez celebrated his anniversary as a big leaguer with another solo homer today as part of a 2-for-5 performance against the Padres, though Chicago wasn’t as successful, dropping a 10-6 result to San Diego.  Baez is now hitting .300/.333/.585 with 24 homers in 433 PA this season, with this breakout offensive performance combining with his usual excellent defense to make him one of the game’s most overall valuable talents.

Some more from Wrigleyville…

  • Kris Bryant has yet to swing a bat since returning to the DL to deal with his bothersome shoulder, and the Cubs slugger tells reporters (including the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan) that he doesn’t yet know when he might be back on the field.  Bryant was eligible to return on August 3, though he was expected to remain beyond the 10-day minimum DL stint to fully allow his shoulder to heal up.  He reiterated, however, that he doesn’t have long-term concerns about the injury.  The former NL MVP is enjoying another strong season (.276/.380/.474 with 11 homers in 358 PA), though his shoulder troubles could explain why his production has dipped a bit from his 2016-17 levels.
  • Dylan Cease was a top-1oo ranked minor leaguer when he was traded as part of the four-prospect package sent by the Cubs to the White Sox for Jose Quintana in July 17.  As The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes in a subscription-only piece, however, the Cubs were ultimately willing to deal Cease due to a significant injury history (Tommy John surgery in 2014) and because he was still pitching in A-ball.  Cease has since made his Double-A debut in the White Sox system and looked outstanding, with a 1.99 ERA, 12.8 K/9, and 4.48 K/BB rate over 40 2/3 IP that has only elevated his status as a future building block for the Sox.  Mooney tracks the Cubs’ initial pursuit of Cease through an interview with scout Keith Lockhart, who originally signed the young righty, and is well aware of the risk involved in moving such blue chip prospects.  “When it first came down, it was easy to say, ’Listen, we got an established big-league starter for some guys that were in A-ball,’ ” Lockhart said. “As the years go on, if Dylan turns out to be a No. 1 starter for the White Sox and leading a rotation, then the story just stays alive.”
  • In other recent Cubs news on MLBTR, Yu Darvish updated the media with his rehab status.

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