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Max Fried

Breakout Candidate: Max Fried

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Max Fried ranked among the Braves’ top prospects from the time they acquired him as the headlining young piece in a trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres until he exhausted his rookie status in 2018. From 2015-17, Fried was considered among the best in a deep system,but he never entered the club’s top five prospects (at either MLB.com or Baseball America) and was at times outranked by Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, Aaron Blair, Joey Wentz, Luiz Gohara and current teammate Mike Soroka. Fried’s outlook is now considerably brighter than most of that bunch, and it’s possible that by the end of the next season — whenever that is — he’ll even have surpassed Soroka as Atlanta’s top arm.

Max Fried

Fried recently turned 26, and although it’s been nearly eight years since San Diego took him with the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and more than five years since Atlanta acquired him, he has just 225 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. Fried underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, slowing his march to the big leagues, and some of the names ranked ahead of him got earlier looks when rotation spots did open up. To this point in his young career, he has a 3.83 ERA and an FIP that’s an exact match. He’s been a quality arm, but the 2019 season was his first full year in the rotation. He produced a 4.02 ERA through 165 2/3 frames.

If you want to argue that Fried has, to an extent, already broken out — that’s defensible. Last year’s ERA, after all, was better than the league average when considering the juiced ball’s impact around the league (and especially given Fried’s hitter-friendly home park). Park- and league-adjusted metrics like ERA- and ERA+ had him anywhere from nine to 16 percent better than the average pitcher. Last year’s 3.72 FIP was 15 percent better than the league average, per FIP-. In all, Fried was worth about three wins above replacement (3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR). He’s clearly already a good pitcher.

The question is whether there’s another gear for Fried to reach. The left-hander ranked 22nd among 75 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings with a solid but not elite K-BB% (18.0). More impressively, he tied for eighth-best with a 3.32 xFIP. Fried’s blend of high-end strikeout rates (9.4 K/9, 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced), walk rates (2.6 BB/9, 6.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (53.6%) all contribute to him faring well in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics.

Looking at his individual pitches, Fried upped his four-seam velocity to a career-best 93.8 mph average in 2019. That’s particularly strong for a lefty, as southpaws tend to have lower average velocities than their right-handed peers. It’s a low-spin offering, however, and Fried’s pedestrian swinging-strike rate on that four-seamer reflects that. He does locate the pitch well, and his improved ability to work ahead in the count — his first-pitch strike rate jumped from 57.8 percent in 2018 to 63.7 percent in 2019 — allowed him to use his curveball more often. Fried’s curveball was lauded as his best pitch during his prospect days (one of the best curves in all of minor league baseball, for that matter), and he demonstrated why in 2019.

Only eight pitchers in the game garnered more swinging-strikes on their curves in 2019, and while it’s true that Fried threw more hooks than the average pitcher, his 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate topped quality curveballs like those of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray, aligning more closely with the whiff rates of Stephen Strasburg (15.3 percent) and Charlie Morton (16.4 percent). Fried also generated a called strike on 18 percent of his curveballs; just over one third of the time that he threw the pitch, it resulted in a strike without the ball being put into play.

The curveball was always supposed to be Fried’s bread and butter, but he broke out a slider in 2019 that looks to be equally effective — if not even better. Hitters whiffed on the new pitch at a 15.3 percent clip that nearly matched his curve, and they chased it out of the strike zone at a 41 percent rate — the best of all his offerings. Fried’s spin on the slider isn’t at the elite levels of his curve, but it ranked in the 76th percentile. Opponents batted .212/.241/.327 when putting his curve into play and .200/.230/.331 when putting his slider into play. Not bad for a pitch he’d literally never thrown in a big league game until March 28, 2019.

When hitters did make contact against Fried, the quality of said contact wasn’t particularly impressive. Per Statcast, Fried allowed hitters to barrel just 4.4 percent of the pitches put into play against him, ranking 16th of 242 pitchers. Opponents batted .270/.324/.419 against Fried in 2019, which translated to a .315 wOBA. But based on the quality of contact he allowed and his strong K/BB numbers, Statcast projected a .297 expected wOBA for Fried. That 18-point gap between his actual wOBA and his xwOBA was the 34th-largest among 242 big league pitchers (with most who ranked ahead of him being pitchers who were shelled at an unsustainable rate in the first place — not quality performers).

The pitching-rich Braves still have more arms on the way. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright highlight their current crop of minor league arms. Soroka, of course, is a highly talented pitcher in his own right — evidenced by a runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting a sixth-place nod in 2019 Cy Young balloting. It’s easy for Fried to get a little lost in the shuffle after Soroka’s electric debut and the constant hype surrounding their rich farm system. But it seems very possible that we’ve yet to see the best Fried has to offer, and there’s reason to think that his best will be enough to push him into the upper echelon of NL starters.

Pitcher Notes: Fried, Eovaldi, A. Wood, Brewers, Rangers

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Braves southpaw Max Fried exited his start Monday with a blister on his left index finger, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes (subscription link). The Braves will re-evaluate Fried on Tuesday, per O’Brien, who points out blister issues have “plagued” the 25-year-old in the past. Blisters can be serious enough to lead to injury list stints, though Fried is optimistic he’ll avoid an IL placement. The Braves’ 58-37 record and 7 1/2-game lead in the National League East have come thanks in part to Fried. He turned in five shutout innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Monday, giving him a 4.08 ERA/3.86 FIP in 103 2/3 frames on the season.

The latest on a few other hurlers…

  • Red Sox soon-to-be closer Nathan Eovaldi will embark on a rehab stint Wednesday or Thursday, likely with Triple-A Pawtucket, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Saturday that Eovaldi could rejoin Boston’s staff sometime this week. Eovaldi, who has been out since late April because of right elbow surgery, will be pitching in a full-time relief role for the first time in his career when he returns. The 29-year-old has started in 152 of 160 appearances thus far.
  • Reds lefty Alex Wood will make his third Triple-A rehab appearance Wednesday, when he’ll throw four innings and 60 to 65 pitches, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. It’s a good sign for Wood, whom back problems have stopped from pitching in in the majors in 2019. His return, if it comes, could be a boon for a Cincinnati team that isn’t waving the white flag on a playoff push despite a 43-48 record.
  • The Brewers placed right-hander Corbin Burnes on the injured list Monday because of shoulder irritation, recalling fellow righty Burch Smith from Triple-A San Antonio to take his place. The club put Burnes on the shelf in the wake of his most recent blowup Sunday, when he allowed four earned runs on four straight hits and failed to retire a batter in a loss to the Giants. Even though the 24-year-old Burnes has struck out just better than 13 batters per nine innings this season, struggles preventing home have led to an ineffectual 9.00 ERA/6.12 FIP across 46 frames. Burnes didn’t give up any homers Sunday, but he has allowed HRs on an astounding 39 percent of fly balls this season.
  • Rangers pitching prospect Yerry Rodriguez is done for the season because of a UCL sprain in his right elbow, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. The club will shut Rodriguez down for six to eight weeks and then re-evaluate him. Rodriguez, who entered the season as FanGraphs’ 14th-ranked Rangers prospect, notched a brilliant 2.08 ERA/3.16 FIP with 10.38 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9 in 73 2/3 Single-A innings this season.

Braves Notes: Fried, Newcomb, O’Day

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The Braves received a scare tonight when left-hander Max Fried was struck on his left hand/forearm by a comeback liner off the bat of Alex Verdugo. Fried attempted a pair of warmup tosses with a trainer on the mound following the play but exited the game rather than continuing forward. Thankfully, the initial x-rays on the young lefty came back negative, as J.P Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Fried has been diagnosed with a contusion and is considered day-to-day for the time being.

It’s excellent news considering that even after being charged with four runs in an inning of work tonight — one of which scored after he left the game and another two of which came home on a play that could’ve been ruled an error — Fried is sporting a 2.97 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate in 39 1/3 innings of work.

Here’s a bit more on the Braves…

  • The Braves will discuss the possibility of utilizing left-hander Sean Newcomb as a reliever moving forward, manager Brian Snitker told reporters Tuesday (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Snitker specifically praised Newcomb’s aggressiveness in a recent relief outing that saw him toss a pair of scoreless innings, though for now it seems clear that the discussion is in its early stages. Newcomb voiced a willingness to pitch in that role if it’s what the organization deemed best, noting as well that the decision isn’t really up to him. The 25-year-old was one of the Braves’ best starters for much of the 2018 campaign before slumping through much of the season’s second half. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been in a state of flux all season after a quiet winter in terms of pitching additions.
  • There’s still no timeline for Darren O’Day’s return to a big league mound, writes David O’Brien of The Athletic as part of a larger look at the Braves’ bullpen (subscription required). The organization is hopeful that the veteran righty, acquired in last July’s trade for Kevin Gausman, will finally make his Braves debut at some point this summer, but to this point there’s nothing more concrete than that vague target. O’Day was sidelined with a hamstring injury at the time of that trade and was included in the swap largely because of the remaining money on his contract, though the Braves surely hoped he’d be an option for them in 2019. Instead, he’s been sidelined to this point by a forearm strain that appears to be progressing slowly. The 36-year-old had a terrific 2012-17 run with the Orioles and had a 3.60 ERA with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio through 20 innings prior to last season’s injury. He’s earning $9MM in 2019 — the final season of a four-year, $31MM contract.

Braves Rumors: Duvall, Outfield, Pitching Staff

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It seems the Braves may be looking at alternatives in the outfield, with David O’Brien of The Athletic tweeting that Adam Duvall’s hold on a roster spot is “tenuous at best.” The Braves acquired Duvall from the Reds in a minor trade last July, and while they didn’t give up much in the way of long-term value, the trade simply hasn’t paid dividends. Duvall was slumping at the time of the acquisition and cratered further with a disastrous .132/.193/.151 through 57 trips to the plate with the Atlanta organization. Despite struggling through the worst season of his career in 2018, Duvall was surprisingly tendered a contract by the Braves, who avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $2.875MM salary. If the Braves cut ties with Duvall, they’d only be responsible for about $696K of that non-guaranteed sum. O’Brien notes that if another fourth-outfield type becomes available in the next few days, it wouldn’t be surprising if Atlanta moves on from Duvall, who is 5-for-37 with seven walks and six strikeouts so far in camp.

More out of Atlanta…

  • On the pitching side, O’Brien took a look yesterday (subscription link) at a roster that’s loaded with possibilities but also a number of health questions. The Atlanta organization will be piecing things together at the back of the bullpen while A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day work back to full health. Both will open the season on the injured list. Some young starters could be tasked with relief duties to open the year, though the rotation is also missing its top piece in Mike Foltynewicz.
  • Not only is Foltynewicz headed for the injured list to start the season, Kevin Gausman’s status for the early portion of the season is seemingly up in the air, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Gausman did throw 58 pitches in an intrasquad game yesterday, but the organization would like him to be built up to 90 pitches before joining the big league rotation. Thankfully for Braves fans, it doesn’t seem as though there’s much long-term concern following Gausman’s early camp shoulder issues. If he’s not ready to go for the opening week, then it’s possible that each of Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Max Fried could make the roster.
  • Meanwhile, the Braves announced today that Mike Soroka has been optioned to Triple-A, where he’ll get at least a few outings under his belt before he’s reconsidered for the MLB staff. That’s actually positive news, it seems, since it indicates that Soroka is healthy enough that he did not require a trip to the injured list to open the season. Soroka was limited in camp with problems in his throwing shoulder, though if he can put that issue behind him he should quickly emerge as a candidate to rejoin the Atlanta rotation.

DL Placements: Fried, Carle, Albers

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A trio of pitchers have hit the disabled list this afternoon… here are the details.

  • The Braves have placed Max Fried on the DL with a left groin strain, the club announced. It’s a notable loss for a pennant-chasing Atlanta club, as Fried’s been excellent in four starts (nine total appearances) so far this season. Despite walking a whopping 16 batters in just 26 2/3 innings, Fried’s managed to post a tidy 3.38 ERA thanks in part to 34 strikeouts and a 50.8% ground ball rate. He’s benefitted from an 80.5% strand rate, but his whopping 23.1% HR/FB rate suggests a bit of bad luck in that department. Fried’s injury suggest that Atlanta will likely return to a traditional five-man rotation for the time being, utilizing Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez and the newly-acquired Kevin Gausman.
  • Simultaneously, the Braves have lost a valuable righty reliever to the DL in the form of Shane Carle (shoulder inflammation). Carle’s been fantastic out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.53 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. The righty’s been used for four or more outs a whopping 14 times in 2018, so the club will surely miss his ability to eat late innings for the time being. In the absence of Fried and Carle, the Braves have recalled lefty Adam McCreery and righty Wes Parsons from Triple-A Gwinett.
  • The Brewers have unsurprisingly added righty reliever Matt Albers to their disabled list, owing to a left hamstring issue. It’s been clear that something isn’t right with the 35-year-old veteran, as he’s allowed a cataclysmic 18 earned runs across his past eight appearances spanning 5 1/3 innings dating back to the start of June. In the season’s first two months, though, Albers had allowed just three earned runs across 25 innings; the club will hope to get him right in time for him to make an impact out of their ’pen down the stretch. Recently-acquired right-hander Jordan Lyles will take Albers’ place on the active roster for the time being.

Mike Soroka, Arodys Vizcaino Still Weeks Away From Throwing

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The Braves provided some notable updates yesterday on a pair of important righties, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to report. Both top pitching prospect Mike Soroka and closer Arodys Vizcaino will need to rest their ailing shoulders for a few more weeks before returning to the hill.

Right now, there are about nine weeks of regular-season play remaining. The two hurlers will need not only to work through a throwing progression, but also undertake rehab work before getting back to the majors.

Getting all the way back to the majors would be an especially difficult proposition for Soroka, who has been on the shelf for about a month. Though he’s said not to be dealing with any structural issues in the joint, shoulder inflammation had already forced a stretch on the DL earlier in the year. Clearly, the club is committed to exercising caution, much as it might wish to have Soroka available down the stretch and into the postseason.

It’s a bit different for Vizcaino, who is a veteran pitcher entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. As a reliever, his path back will be shorter. While he has also experienced prior shoulder woes this season, the Braves will understandably be somewhat more aggressive with trying to get him back in game action.

As Snitker explained, there’s still good reason to think that Vizcaino will return, though risk remains:

“I don’t see Viz missing the year. I think at some point — because he’s a one-inning guy — we can get him back. I say that, but until we get him throwing, we don’t know.”

What’s most interesting about these developments is how they’ll impact the team’s deadline moves. Both the rotation and bullpen would clearly be better units with Soroka and Vizcaino, respectively. GM Alex Anthopoulos has said all along he’d like to wait until he has all the information needed to determine priorities. The decision point is now nearly upon him.

With regard to the rotation, the fact that there’s no longer a clear path back for Soroka makes it more likely than ever that the Braves will push to land an established, controllable starter. The unit has at least one hole, and that’s before considering the fact that all of the top four existing options have rather significantly outperformed their peripherals by measure of major ERA estimators. Young lefty Max Fried is moving back toward the majors on a rehab assignment, as David O’Brien of The Athletic recently tweeted, though he’s hardly a sure thing and arguably won’t be capable of delivering the kind of near-term impact the team needs (or, at least, wants).

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Top 75 Trade Candidates]

In the pen, it’s certainly encouraging to hear that the team can reasonably hope for a contribution from Vizcaino down the stretch. But there are no guarantees. And the relief unit was already an area that the Braves likely would have targeted for at least some improvement. From here on out, every game is a high-leverage one given the situation in the NL East, so late-inning arms will be of critical importance. Waiting and hoping for Vizcaino to return, then, likely won’t be sufficient.

Anthopoulos said just yesterday that he’s open to adding in multiple areas. In addition to the rotation and relief corps, he cited “a bat” as a possibility. (Improving the mix on the left side of the infield still seems the likeliest course in that regard.) The GM also indicated he’s interested in securing controllable assets if possible. Indeed, that may be necessary if he hopes to land impact arms, as there are relatively few rental hurlers that figure to represent significant upgrades and multiple other teams that will pursue them.

Braves GM Anthopoulos On Payroll, Rentals, Pitching Staff

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos recently sat down with Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution for an extensive Q&A about a team that has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations and finds itself in the thick of a division race (Q&A Part 1, Part 2). Braves fans in particular will want to check out the full conversation, as Anthopoulos discusses some front office processes, the team’s minor league depth and quite a few other interesting topics at length.

With an eye toward the looming non-waiver trade deadline, though, Anthopoulos sheds a bit of light on how the Braves could operate moving forward. Perhaps most notably, Anthopoulos describes a recent MLB.com report suggesting that the Braves are close to their payroll maximum to be inaccurate. Anthopoulos recalls the manner in which he was handcuffed by financial constraints with the Blue Jays at the 2014 deadline, which prompted him to resist some late-offseason spending in order to keep some money set aside for summer moves in 2015. The 2018 season in Atlanta seems to be a similar case.

“So we’ve set some money aside from a big-league payroll standpoint, so we definitely have (it) for this moment,” said the GM of his team’s current financial outlook. “…[W]e saved some money and we have that available, and now – as the byproduct of the results – attendance is up, everything is up, the organization is doing much better.” Anthopoulos added that he’s already had conversations about the team’s spending capacity with chairman Terry McGuirk. Perhaps most notably, Anthopoulos plainly states that there is “no single player” the Braves cannot afford to add.

That said, he’s also careful to emphasize that that ability to spend doesn’t mean Braves fans should be counting the days to a splashy addition. Anthopoulos estimated that “90 percent” of the players available in trades at present are of the rental variety and expressed some notable reluctance about the possibility of acquiring such players.

“There’s a lot of pain that has gone into putting together this young talent,” Anthopoulos continued. “We’re not ready to throw that all away just because of one season. That said, I do think we owe it to the players and the fan base and the organization to make this team better, one way or another.”

Asked specifically about whether he has the depth of pitching to make it to the postseason, Anthopoulos confidently stated that the Braves do indeed have the necessary arms. Luiz Gohara is back in the Triple-A rotation and will be an option to start if need, and Max Fried is on the mend from the blister issues that are presently hampering him. Braves fans will be heartened to see Anthopoulos speak extremely favorably of top prospect Kolby Allard, noting that expects the lefty to get a chance down the line (though he understandably declined to specify precisely when).

As for the relief corps, the Braves are “definitely trying to add to that group,” according to Anthopoulos. While he characterizes the current group as one that could get the Braves to October, he also acknowledges that getting to the postseason and winning in the postseason when other teams can more aggressively leverage their top relievers (due to built-in off days in the schedule) are separate matters. “On the one hand, in October you don’t need as much depth,” said Anthopoulos. “You need three, four reliable guys. On the other, it’s a very young and inexperienced bullpen.” That, it seems, would suggest that the Braves are open to adding, if not actively striving to add a more experienced late-inning option to the mix — a need that could be viewed as even more pressing with Arodys Vizcaino now on the DL for shoulder inflammation for a second time.

Anthopoulos and Bradley also talk about his expectations for the team heading into the offseason, his thoughts on the rest of the NL East, the possibility of some of his young players hitting a wall as the season wears on and the fact that he is very cognizant of the fact that his team’s play is placing him under pressure as a first-year GM in a new organization.

Braves Designate Peter Bourjos For Assignment

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The Braves have designated outfielder Peter Bourjos for assignment, the team announced on Twitter.  In a corresponding move, southpaw Max Fried has been called up from Triple-A to start tonight’s game against the Cardinals.

Signed to a minor league contract near the end of Spring Training, Bourjos was released by the Braves at the end of April and then quickly re-signed to a new minors deal.  The veteran outfielder hasn’t provided much at the plate (.205/.239/.364 slash line in 47 PA), though his primary role in Atlanta has been serving as a late-game defensive replacement, usually in left field.

With Ronald Acuna now back from the disabled list and stepping back into the starting left field role, Bourjos became expendable, though the Braves are likely hoping that he can slip from waivers and remain in the organization as center field depth.  Acuna and backups Danny Santana and Charlie Culberson are all imperfect fill-ins behind everyday center fielder Ender Inciarte, while Bourjos has long been a capable-to-very good defender throughout his career.

This is the third time Fried has been promoted to the MLB roster this season, and the left-hander has contributed a 4.09 ERA and 13 strikeouts (plus a troubling seven walks) over 11 innings of work.  He has yet to receive an extended look at the big league level either this year or after making his Major League debut in 2017, though Fried could get more of an opportunity now that Brandon McCarthy and Mike Soroka are both on the disabled list.  Fried was ranked as a top-100 prospect by Baseball America (which had him 72nd) and MLB.com (83rd) prior to the season.

Braves Place Mike Soroka On 10-Day DL, Recall Max Fried

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The Braves have placed young righty Mike Soroka on the 10-day DL with a right shoulder strain, per a club announcement. The placement is retroactive to May 14th. His scheduled start tonight will instead be taken by Max Fried, who has been recalled.

That’s not the news the Braves were hoping for with a prized young hurler, though perhaps the team is just exercising precaution. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that the club believes he could be able to return in time to make his next scheduled start, which would presumably mean coming off of the DL after the minimum absence.

Soroka, one of the Atlanta roster’s slate of fascinating twenty-year-old talents, has impressed through three MLB starts. He carries a 3.68 ERA in 14 2/3 innings, with underlying peripherals (9.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 42.9% groundball rate) that suggest he’s more than ready for the majors. Though it was not certain when he came up whether he’d stick, it now seems reasonable to anticipate he’ll be in the majors to stay so long as he remains healthy.

For the time being, though, it’ll be Fried who gets the chance. The 24-year-old has made four relief appearances on the year in the majors but also took three starts at Triple-A. At his best, Fried can generate grounders and strikeouts in much the same manner Soroka has, though the southpaw has long handed out too many free passes and is not considered as promising as the man he’ll substitute for.

Braves Designate Miguel Socolovich, Promote Max Fried

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The Braves have designated righty Miguel Socolovich for assignment, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by southpaw Max Fried.

Socolovich came up for a pair of appearances, allowing three earned runs in three innings. The 31-year-old carries a 4.41 ERA in his 85 2/3 career frames at the MLB level.

Fried, meanwhile, likely features more prominently in the team’s long-term plans. The former top prospect cracked the majors last year and gave the Braves 26 innings of 3.81 ERA pitching. But he had only just ascended to the upper minors in 2017 and opened the current season back at Triple-A.

Thus far in the current campaign, Fried has allowed only three earned in 15 2/3 innings over his three starts, with 16 strikeouts and seven walks. The free passes continue to be a bit of a concern, as he has steadily given up more than four per nine innings since joining the professional ranks.

It’s unclear at this point whether Fried will get a chance to join the Atlanta rotation, but it seems likely he’ll open in a long relief role. Notably, since he’s already on the 40-man, the move leaves the Braves with an opening that could be filled in the near future by the just-signed Jose Bautista.

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