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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Braves Announce Starters For First Three Games Of NLDS

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OCTOBER 5: As expected, the Braves announced that Fried will get the ball in Game 1, with Anderson and Wright tabbed for Games 2 and 3, respectively (via David O’Brien of the Athletic). Manager Brian Snitker suggested the club could carry fifteen pitchers on their NLDS roster (relays O’Brien). Atlanta only activated thirteen pitchers for their shorter first-round series against the Reds.

OCTOBER 4: The Braves will consider a bullpen game at some point during their NLDS series against the Marlins, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. That’s a lot to put on a bullpen in a 5-game series that takes place over 5 days, but the Braves and manager Brian Snitker may not have a better option available to them.

Max Fried figures to get the start in game one, with Snitker announcing the move in all but name: “I think you want your best going in Game 1,” said Snitker, per Bowman. Fried could return on short rest to start a potential win-or-go-home game five. Said Snitker, “…I definitely think that is a possibility. We just need to see how that first game goes and the subsequent games as well.” Snitker remained coy about officially naming Fried as the game one starter, but only an injury would derail a game one start from Fried at this point, and it seems their ace lefty is finally healthy for the first time in that past month.

Beyond Fried, rookie standout Ian Anderson should line up for game two and Kyle Wright for game three. Again, Snitker would make nothing official, but the Braves don’t have a lot of options given the injuries that befell their rotation during the season.

Game four is where things get interesting for the Braves, as they don’t have a clear option lined up to start this game – hence the possibility of a bullpen game. Josh Tomlin was on the Wild Card roster, and he could function as a key swingman after making 5 starts during the regular season. Tomlin covered 39 2/3 innings across 17 total appearances during the regular season with a 4.76 ERA/4.02 FIP and 8.17 K/9 to 1.82 BB/9.

Atlanta went with a 10-man bullpen for the wild card series, with Tomlin as the only true long man. If they should so choose, the Braves have a number of options elsewhere in the system with experience eating innings. Huascar Ynoa, Bryse Wilson, Touki Toussaint, and Sean Newcomb could conceivably be added to their pitching pool as options to start or eat innings in a potential game four. That said, 10 guys in the pen should be enough even with a bullpen game, and the Braves already expect to lean heavily on Mark Melancon and Shane Greene – each of whom could theoretically pitch in as many as four of the five games, if it goes the distance.

Ronald Acuña Jr. Scratched From Sunday’s Lineup

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Ronald Acuña Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup because of left wrist irritation, the team announced via Twitter. Obviously, it’s not an ideal situation for the Braves, but there’s no apparent reason to read anything more into this than what’s on the surface. With their playoff position locked, the Braves don’t gain much from playing Acuña today, especially if he’s anything less than 100%. There’s no reason to expect Acuña won’t be back in the lineup for their 3-game wild card playoff.

Acuna wanted to be in the lineup today, so the injury clearly isn’t all that limiting, but the Braves wanted to be cautious with their superstar, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). It is the same wrist that caused him some trouble in August. That said, the 22-year-old still managed to play in 46 games this season and post 2.0 rWAR with a triple slash of .250/.406/.581.

While Acuña’s wrist soreness will surely make some Braves fans a little nervous, there’s cause for optimism coming out of Atlanta as well. Ace Max Fried threw a bullpen session today, and as expected, he’d been given the green light for the playoffs, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Perhaps even more important than Acuña, Atlanta really needs a healthy Fried in order to make a deep run this postseason. He was their best starter by a wide margin this season, emerging from a muddled and hectic rotation to establish himself as an ace and Cy Young candidate.

In 11 starts this season, Fried went 7-0 with a sterling 2.25 ERA/3.10 FIP across 56 innings. His contributions amount to 2.9 rWAR, the fourth-highest mark among pitchers in the majors. The only concern for Fried is that he’s thrown just 6 innings across two starts since going on the injured list early in September. The Braves have held the division lead or some time now, so they’ve been able to be patient with their ace. Still, he’ll be watched closely as he prepares to start the opener of the postseason. As the #2 seed, the Braves will be playing in Atlanta, though their opponent has yet to be decided. Beyond Fried, none of the Braves potential starters (Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson) have more than a year of service time under their belts.

Latest On Max Fried

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SEPT. 24: Great news for the Braves: Fried will “certainly be ready” for the start of the playoffs, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network Radio.

SEPT. 23: Braves southpaw Max Fried exited his start against the Marlins on Wednesday after one inning because of a tweaked left ankle, the team announced. Fried previously missed time with a left-side muscle spasm in his lumbar spine.

With the Braves having clinched yet another NL East title and looking for their first World Series title since 1995, a significant Fried injury could be a catastrophe for a team whose rotation has had to overcome multiple problems during the season. The Braves are already set to enter the playoffs without Mike Soroka (Achilles) and Cole Hamels (shoulder), who haven’t contributed nearly as much as expected this year and won’t pitch again in 2020.

In a rotation devoid of two of its highest-profile arms, Fried has been a saving grace and one of the NL’s premier starters. It took until Wednesday for Fried to allow a home run, when the Marlins teed off on him for two in an inning of work, though he has been brilliant for the most part. The 26-year-old owns a 2.25 ERA/3.09 FIP with 8.04 K/9, 3.05 BB/9 and a 53 percent groundball rate in 56 innings.

Braves Promote Jasseel De La Cruz

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The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve promoted right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz and optioned Touki Toussaint to their alternate training site. De La Cruz will make his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game.

Ranked as Atlanta’s No. 12 prospect at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com on their respective midseason updates, the 23-year-old De La Cruz will be the latest promising Braves arm to try to help patch an injury-decimated pitching staff. He split the 2019 season between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A, pitching to a collective 3.25 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and a healthy 47.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Scouting reports at BA, FanGraphs and MLB.com all credit De La Cruz with a mid-90s heater that can reach the upper 90s and, per BA, has occasionally scratched triple digits. He’s made strides with his slider and improved his changeup as well, but while he’s worked as a starter for most of his minor league career, his violent delivery leads many to believe that he’s eventually bullpen-bound. That would allow his heater to play up and perhaps allow De La Cruz to focus on the better of his two offspeed offerings, which is currently his slider.

It doesn’t appear as though De La Cruz will start a game anytime soon, so he could just be bullpen depth for the time being. David O’Brien of The Athletic tweeted last night that the Braves expect to start Huascar Ynoa today, with Cole Hamels coming off the injured list for his season debut tomorrow and Max Fried slated to return Friday. (The Braves are off Thursday.) As such, there’s no guarantee that De La Cruz will get into a game before he’s sent back out, but Atlanta fans could still get a glimpse of the future in the coming days if he’s called upon.

The impending activation of Hamels and Fried should be a welcome breath of fresh air for a Braves club that has continually struggled to piece together its starting staff in the wake of myriad injuries and unexpectedly poor performances. They’re still a lock to make the postseason, holding a 2.5-game lead in the NL East at present, but the type of starting pitching they’ve received recently wouldn’t instill much confidence in a playoff series. However, a group led by Fried, Ian Anderson and a hopefully healthy Hamels looks considerably more impressive.

Braves Place Max Fried On IL, DFA Charlie Culberson, And Other Roster Moves

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The Atlanta Braves announced a number of roster moves this morning, the most consequential of which was placing ace Max Fried on the injured list, retroactive to September 6th, the team announced. Also, Kyle Wright was recalled and Jacob Webb reinstated from the injured list. Fan favorite utility man Charlie Culberson was designated for assignment.

Fried might be the single most important player on the Braves roster right now as the only reliable high-end arm in the rotation. In the wake of Mike Soroka’s season-ending injury, Mike Foltynewicz’s demotion, and Cole Hamels’ injury, Fried has ably stepped up and developed into an ace for the Braves. He’s currently a top contender for the Cy Young in the National League with a 6-0 record through 9 starts, 50 innings, a 1.98 ERA/2.47 FIP, and zero home runs allowed.

A worrying drop in velocity hit a season low in his last start on Saturday, as illustrated here by PitcherList.com (via Twitter), averaging just 91.7 mph after being as high as 94.1 mph for his first two starts of the year . The injury listed is a left-side muscle spasm of the lumbar spine, aka back spasms. The Braves are obviously hopeful that some rest and treatment can get him back on the hill.

In the meantime, Hamels is on the comeback trail, and he could be activated as soon as next Monday, per Baseball America’s Gabe Burns (via Twitter). For now, Wright will return from their alternate training site in Lawrenceville to re-join the rotation. The Braves will hope for better results this time around for the 24-year-old, who was hit with a 7.20 ERA/6.48 FIP while going 0-3 in 4 starts earlier this season – though The Athletic’s David O’Brien reports that Wright is just up for a spot start. Still, Wright is highly regarded, their 4th ranked prospect by Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB.com.

The 27-year-old Webb could provide boost to Atlanta’s right-side relief corps. Webb has yet to appear in 2020, but he put up a 1.39 ERA in 39 games in 2019 – his first big league experience. The 6’2″ right-hander brings a 95 mph heater buttressed by a curveball and 86 mph change that generated a 40% Whiff% in 2019.

Culberson, 31, only appeared in 9 games this season going 1 for 7 with a double and RBI. The utlilty man has mostly been used as a pinch-runner this season. Culberson had some big hits for the 2019 Braves, but he took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the cheek on a bunt attempt in Washington which broke his cheekbone and ended his season. Culberson hasn’t seen regular playing time since the injury.

Breakout Candidate: Max Fried

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Max Fried ranked among the Braves’ top prospects from the time they acquired him as the headlining young piece in a trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres until he exhausted his rookie status in 2018. From 2015-17, Fried was considered among the best in a deep system,but he never entered the club’s top five prospects (at either MLB.com or Baseball America) and was at times outranked by Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, Aaron Blair, Joey Wentz, Luiz Gohara and current teammate Mike Soroka. Fried’s outlook is now considerably brighter than most of that bunch, and it’s possible that by the end of the next season — whenever that is — he’ll even have surpassed Soroka as Atlanta’s top arm.

Max Fried

Fried recently turned 26, and although it’s been nearly eight years since San Diego took him with the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and more than five years since Atlanta acquired him, he has just 225 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. Fried underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, slowing his march to the big leagues, and some of the names ranked ahead of him got earlier looks when rotation spots did open up. To this point in his young career, he has a 3.83 ERA and an FIP that’s an exact match. He’s been a quality arm, but the 2019 season was his first full year in the rotation. He produced a 4.02 ERA through 165 2/3 frames.

If you want to argue that Fried has, to an extent, already broken out — that’s defensible. Last year’s ERA, after all, was better than the league average when considering the juiced ball’s impact around the league (and especially given Fried’s hitter-friendly home park). Park- and league-adjusted metrics like ERA- and ERA+ had him anywhere from nine to 16 percent better than the average pitcher. Last year’s 3.72 FIP was 15 percent better than the league average, per FIP-. In all, Fried was worth about three wins above replacement (3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR). He’s clearly already a good pitcher.

The question is whether there’s another gear for Fried to reach. The left-hander ranked 22nd among 75 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings with a solid but not elite K-BB% (18.0). More impressively, he tied for eighth-best with a 3.32 xFIP. Fried’s blend of high-end strikeout rates (9.4 K/9, 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced), walk rates (2.6 BB/9, 6.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (53.6%) all contribute to him faring well in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics.

Looking at his individual pitches, Fried upped his four-seam velocity to a career-best 93.8 mph average in 2019. That’s particularly strong for a lefty, as southpaws tend to have lower average velocities than their right-handed peers. It’s a low-spin offering, however, and Fried’s pedestrian swinging-strike rate on that four-seamer reflects that. He does locate the pitch well, and his improved ability to work ahead in the count — his first-pitch strike rate jumped from 57.8 percent in 2018 to 63.7 percent in 2019 — allowed him to use his curveball more often. Fried’s curveball was lauded as his best pitch during his prospect days (one of the best curves in all of minor league baseball, for that matter), and he demonstrated why in 2019.

Only eight pitchers in the game garnered more swinging-strikes on their curves in 2019, and while it’s true that Fried threw more hooks than the average pitcher, his 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate topped quality curveballs like those of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray, aligning more closely with the whiff rates of Stephen Strasburg (15.3 percent) and Charlie Morton (16.4 percent). Fried also generated a called strike on 18 percent of his curveballs; just over one third of the time that he threw the pitch, it resulted in a strike without the ball being put into play.

The curveball was always supposed to be Fried’s bread and butter, but he broke out a slider in 2019 that looks to be equally effective — if not even better. Hitters whiffed on the new pitch at a 15.3 percent clip that nearly matched his curve, and they chased it out of the strike zone at a 41 percent rate — the best of all his offerings. Fried’s spin on the slider isn’t at the elite levels of his curve, but it ranked in the 76th percentile. Opponents batted .212/.241/.327 when putting his curve into play and .200/.230/.331 when putting his slider into play. Not bad for a pitch he’d literally never thrown in a big league game until March 28, 2019.

When hitters did make contact against Fried, the quality of said contact wasn’t particularly impressive. Per Statcast, Fried allowed hitters to barrel just 4.4 percent of the pitches put into play against him, ranking 16th of 242 pitchers. Opponents batted .270/.324/.419 against Fried in 2019, which translated to a .315 wOBA. But based on the quality of contact he allowed and his strong K/BB numbers, Statcast projected a .297 expected wOBA for Fried. That 18-point gap between his actual wOBA and his xwOBA was the 34th-largest among 242 big league pitchers (with most who ranked ahead of him being pitchers who were shelled at an unsustainable rate in the first place — not quality performers).

The pitching-rich Braves still have more arms on the way. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright highlight their current crop of minor league arms. Soroka, of course, is a highly talented pitcher in his own right — evidenced by a runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting a sixth-place nod in 2019 Cy Young balloting. It’s easy for Fried to get a little lost in the shuffle after Soroka’s electric debut and the constant hype surrounding their rich farm system. But it seems very possible that we’ve yet to see the best Fried has to offer, and there’s reason to think that his best will be enough to push him into the upper echelon of NL starters.

Pitcher Notes: Fried, Eovaldi, A. Wood, Brewers, Rangers

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Braves southpaw Max Fried exited his start Monday with a blister on his left index finger, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes (subscription link). The Braves will re-evaluate Fried on Tuesday, per O’Brien, who points out blister issues have “plagued” the 25-year-old in the past. Blisters can be serious enough to lead to injury list stints, though Fried is optimistic he’ll avoid an IL placement. The Braves’ 58-37 record and 7 1/2-game lead in the National League East have come thanks in part to Fried. He turned in five shutout innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Monday, giving him a 4.08 ERA/3.86 FIP in 103 2/3 frames on the season.

The latest on a few other hurlers…

  • Red Sox soon-to-be closer Nathan Eovaldi will embark on a rehab stint Wednesday or Thursday, likely with Triple-A Pawtucket, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Saturday that Eovaldi could rejoin Boston’s staff sometime this week. Eovaldi, who has been out since late April because of right elbow surgery, will be pitching in a full-time relief role for the first time in his career when he returns. The 29-year-old has started in 152 of 160 appearances thus far.
  • Reds lefty Alex Wood will make his third Triple-A rehab appearance Wednesday, when he’ll throw four innings and 60 to 65 pitches, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. It’s a good sign for Wood, whom back problems have stopped from pitching in in the majors in 2019. His return, if it comes, could be a boon for a Cincinnati team that isn’t waving the white flag on a playoff push despite a 43-48 record.
  • The Brewers placed right-hander Corbin Burnes on the injured list Monday because of shoulder irritation, recalling fellow righty Burch Smith from Triple-A San Antonio to take his place. The club put Burnes on the shelf in the wake of his most recent blowup Sunday, when he allowed four earned runs on four straight hits and failed to retire a batter in a loss to the Giants. Even though the 24-year-old Burnes has struck out just better than 13 batters per nine innings this season, struggles preventing home have led to an ineffectual 9.00 ERA/6.12 FIP across 46 frames. Burnes didn’t give up any homers Sunday, but he has allowed HRs on an astounding 39 percent of fly balls this season.
  • Rangers pitching prospect Yerry Rodriguez is done for the season because of a UCL sprain in his right elbow, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. The club will shut Rodriguez down for six to eight weeks and then re-evaluate him. Rodriguez, who entered the season as FanGraphs’ 14th-ranked Rangers prospect, notched a brilliant 2.08 ERA/3.16 FIP with 10.38 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9 in 73 2/3 Single-A innings this season.

Braves Notes: Fried, Newcomb, O’Day

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The Braves received a scare tonight when left-hander Max Fried was struck on his left hand/forearm by a comeback liner off the bat of Alex Verdugo. Fried attempted a pair of warmup tosses with a trainer on the mound following the play but exited the game rather than continuing forward. Thankfully, the initial x-rays on the young lefty came back negative, as J.P Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Fried has been diagnosed with a contusion and is considered day-to-day for the time being.

It’s excellent news considering that even after being charged with four runs in an inning of work tonight — one of which scored after he left the game and another two of which came home on a play that could’ve been ruled an error — Fried is sporting a 2.97 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate in 39 1/3 innings of work.

Here’s a bit more on the Braves…

  • The Braves will discuss the possibility of utilizing left-hander Sean Newcomb as a reliever moving forward, manager Brian Snitker told reporters Tuesday (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Snitker specifically praised Newcomb’s aggressiveness in a recent relief outing that saw him toss a pair of scoreless innings, though for now it seems clear that the discussion is in its early stages. Newcomb voiced a willingness to pitch in that role if it’s what the organization deemed best, noting as well that the decision isn’t really up to him. The 25-year-old was one of the Braves’ best starters for much of the 2018 campaign before slumping through much of the season’s second half. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been in a state of flux all season after a quiet winter in terms of pitching additions.
  • There’s still no timeline for Darren O’Day’s return to a big league mound, writes David O’Brien of The Athletic as part of a larger look at the Braves’ bullpen (subscription required). The organization is hopeful that the veteran righty, acquired in last July’s trade for Kevin Gausman, will finally make his Braves debut at some point this summer, but to this point there’s nothing more concrete than that vague target. O’Day was sidelined with a hamstring injury at the time of that trade and was included in the swap largely because of the remaining money on his contract, though the Braves surely hoped he’d be an option for them in 2019. Instead, he’s been sidelined to this point by a forearm strain that appears to be progressing slowly. The 36-year-old had a terrific 2012-17 run with the Orioles and had a 3.60 ERA with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio through 20 innings prior to last season’s injury. He’s earning $9MM in 2019 — the final season of a four-year, $31MM contract.
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