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Max Fried

Ronald Acuña Jr. Scratched From Sunday’s Lineup

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Ronald Acuña Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup because of left wrist irritation, the team announced via Twitter. Obviously, it’s not an ideal situation for the Braves, but there’s no apparent reason to read anything more into this than what’s on the surface. With their playoff position locked, the Braves don’t gain much from playing Acuña today, especially if he’s anything less than 100%. There’s no reason to expect Acuña won’t be back in the lineup for their 3-game wild card playoff.

Acuna wanted to be in the lineup today, so the injury clearly isn’t all that limiting, but the Braves wanted to be cautious with their superstar, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). It is the same wrist that caused him some trouble in August. That said, the 22-year-old still managed to play in 46 games this season and post 2.0 rWAR with a triple slash of .250/.406/.581.

While Acuña’s wrist soreness will surely make some Braves fans a little nervous, there’s cause for optimism coming out of Atlanta as well. Ace Max Fried threw a bullpen session today, and as expected, he’d been given the green light for the playoffs, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Perhaps even more important than Acuña, Atlanta really needs a healthy Fried in order to make a deep run this postseason. He was their best starter by a wide margin this season, emerging from a muddled and hectic rotation to establish himself as an ace and Cy Young candidate.

In 11 starts this season, Fried went 7-0 with a sterling 2.25 ERA/3.10 FIP across 56 innings. His contributions amount to 2.9 rWAR, the fourth-highest mark among pitchers in the majors. The only concern for Fried is that he’s thrown just 6 innings across two starts since going on the injured list early in September. The Braves have held the division lead or some time now, so they’ve been able to be patient with their ace. Still, he’ll be watched closely as he prepares to start the opener of the postseason. As the #2 seed, the Braves will be playing in Atlanta, though their opponent has yet to be decided. Beyond Fried, none of the Braves potential starters (Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson) have more than a year of service time under their belts.

Latest On Max Fried

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SEPT. 24: Great news for the Braves: Fried will “certainly be ready” for the start of the playoffs, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network Radio.

SEPT. 23: Braves southpaw Max Fried exited his start against the Marlins on Wednesday after one inning because of a tweaked left ankle, the team announced. Fried previously missed time with a left-side muscle spasm in his lumbar spine.

With the Braves having clinched yet another NL East title and looking for their first World Series title since 1995, a significant Fried injury could be a catastrophe for a team whose rotation has had to overcome multiple problems during the season. The Braves are already set to enter the playoffs without Mike Soroka (Achilles) and Cole Hamels (shoulder), who haven’t contributed nearly as much as expected this year and won’t pitch again in 2020.

In a rotation devoid of two of its highest-profile arms, Fried has been a saving grace and one of the NL’s premier starters. It took until Wednesday for Fried to allow a home run, when the Marlins teed off on him for two in an inning of work, though he has been brilliant for the most part. The 26-year-old owns a 2.25 ERA/3.09 FIP with 8.04 K/9, 3.05 BB/9 and a 53 percent groundball rate in 56 innings.

Braves Promote Jasseel De La Cruz

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The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve promoted right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz and optioned Touki Toussaint to their alternate training site. De La Cruz will make his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game.

Ranked as Atlanta’s No. 12 prospect at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com on their respective midseason updates, the 23-year-old De La Cruz will be the latest promising Braves arm to try to help patch an injury-decimated pitching staff. He split the 2019 season between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A, pitching to a collective 3.25 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and a healthy 47.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Scouting reports at BA, FanGraphs and MLB.com all credit De La Cruz with a mid-90s heater that can reach the upper 90s and, per BA, has occasionally scratched triple digits. He’s made strides with his slider and improved his changeup as well, but while he’s worked as a starter for most of his minor league career, his violent delivery leads many to believe that he’s eventually bullpen-bound. That would allow his heater to play up and perhaps allow De La Cruz to focus on the better of his two offspeed offerings, which is currently his slider.

It doesn’t appear as though De La Cruz will start a game anytime soon, so he could just be bullpen depth for the time being. David O’Brien of The Athletic tweeted last night that the Braves expect to start Huascar Ynoa today, with Cole Hamels coming off the injured list for his season debut tomorrow and Max Fried slated to return Friday. (The Braves are off Thursday.) As such, there’s no guarantee that De La Cruz will get into a game before he’s sent back out, but Atlanta fans could still get a glimpse of the future in the coming days if he’s called upon.

The impending activation of Hamels and Fried should be a welcome breath of fresh air for a Braves club that has continually struggled to piece together its starting staff in the wake of myriad injuries and unexpectedly poor performances. They’re still a lock to make the postseason, holding a 2.5-game lead in the NL East at present, but the type of starting pitching they’ve received recently wouldn’t instill much confidence in a playoff series. However, a group led by Fried, Ian Anderson and a hopefully healthy Hamels looks considerably more impressive.

Braves Place Max Fried On IL, DFA Charlie Culberson, And Other Roster Moves

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The Atlanta Braves announced a number of roster moves this morning, the most consequential of which was placing ace Max Fried on the injured list, retroactive to September 6th, the team announced. Also, Kyle Wright was recalled and Jacob Webb reinstated from the injured list. Fan favorite utility man Charlie Culberson was designated for assignment.

Fried might be the single most important player on the Braves roster right now as the only reliable high-end arm in the rotation. In the wake of Mike Soroka’s season-ending injury, Mike Foltynewicz’s demotion, and Cole Hamels’ injury, Fried has ably stepped up and developed into an ace for the Braves. He’s currently a top contender for the Cy Young in the National League with a 6-0 record through 9 starts, 50 innings, a 1.98 ERA/2.47 FIP, and zero home runs allowed.

A worrying drop in velocity hit a season low in his last start on Saturday, as illustrated here by PitcherList.com (via Twitter), averaging just 91.7 mph after being as high as 94.1 mph for his first two starts of the year . The injury listed is a left-side muscle spasm of the lumbar spine, aka back spasms. The Braves are obviously hopeful that some rest and treatment can get him back on the hill.

In the meantime, Hamels is on the comeback trail, and he could be activated as soon as next Monday, per Baseball America’s Gabe Burns (via Twitter). For now, Wright will return from their alternate training site in Lawrenceville to re-join the rotation. The Braves will hope for better results this time around for the 24-year-old, who was hit with a 7.20 ERA/6.48 FIP while going 0-3 in 4 starts earlier this season – though The Athletic’s David O’Brien reports that Wright is just up for a spot start. Still, Wright is highly regarded, their 4th ranked prospect by Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB.com.

The 27-year-old Webb could provide boost to Atlanta’s right-side relief corps. Webb has yet to appear in 2020, but he put up a 1.39 ERA in 39 games in 2019 – his first big league experience. The 6’2″ right-hander brings a 95 mph heater buttressed by a curveball and 86 mph change that generated a 40% Whiff% in 2019.

Culberson, 31, only appeared in 9 games this season going 1 for 7 with a double and RBI. The utlilty man has mostly been used as a pinch-runner this season. Culberson had some big hits for the 2019 Braves, but he took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the cheek on a bunt attempt in Washington which broke his cheekbone and ended his season. Culberson hasn’t seen regular playing time since the injury.

Breakout Candidate: Max Fried

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Max Fried ranked among the Braves’ top prospects from the time they acquired him as the headlining young piece in a trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres until he exhausted his rookie status in 2018. From 2015-17, Fried was considered among the best in a deep system,but he never entered the club’s top five prospects (at either MLB.com or Baseball America) and was at times outranked by Sean Newcomb, Kolby Allard, Touki Toussaint, Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, Aaron Blair, Joey Wentz, Luiz Gohara and current teammate Mike Soroka. Fried’s outlook is now considerably brighter than most of that bunch, and it’s possible that by the end of the next season — whenever that is — he’ll even have surpassed Soroka as Atlanta’s top arm.

Max Fried

Fried recently turned 26, and although it’s been nearly eight years since San Diego took him with the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and more than five years since Atlanta acquired him, he has just 225 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. Fried underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect, slowing his march to the big leagues, and some of the names ranked ahead of him got earlier looks when rotation spots did open up. To this point in his young career, he has a 3.83 ERA and an FIP that’s an exact match. He’s been a quality arm, but the 2019 season was his first full year in the rotation. He produced a 4.02 ERA through 165 2/3 frames.

If you want to argue that Fried has, to an extent, already broken out — that’s defensible. Last year’s ERA, after all, was better than the league average when considering the juiced ball’s impact around the league (and especially given Fried’s hitter-friendly home park). Park- and league-adjusted metrics like ERA- and ERA+ had him anywhere from nine to 16 percent better than the average pitcher. Last year’s 3.72 FIP was 15 percent better than the league average, per FIP-. In all, Fried was worth about three wins above replacement (3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR). He’s clearly already a good pitcher.

The question is whether there’s another gear for Fried to reach. The left-hander ranked 22nd among 75 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings with a solid but not elite K-BB% (18.0). More impressively, he tied for eighth-best with a 3.32 xFIP. Fried’s blend of high-end strikeout rates (9.4 K/9, 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced), walk rates (2.6 BB/9, 6.7 percent) and ground-ball rate (53.6%) all contribute to him faring well in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics.

Looking at his individual pitches, Fried upped his four-seam velocity to a career-best 93.8 mph average in 2019. That’s particularly strong for a lefty, as southpaws tend to have lower average velocities than their right-handed peers. It’s a low-spin offering, however, and Fried’s pedestrian swinging-strike rate on that four-seamer reflects that. He does locate the pitch well, and his improved ability to work ahead in the count — his first-pitch strike rate jumped from 57.8 percent in 2018 to 63.7 percent in 2019 — allowed him to use his curveball more often. Fried’s curveball was lauded as his best pitch during his prospect days (one of the best curves in all of minor league baseball, for that matter), and he demonstrated why in 2019.

Only eight pitchers in the game garnered more swinging-strikes on their curves in 2019, and while it’s true that Fried threw more hooks than the average pitcher, his 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate topped quality curveballs like those of Jose Berrios and Sonny Gray, aligning more closely with the whiff rates of Stephen Strasburg (15.3 percent) and Charlie Morton (16.4 percent). Fried also generated a called strike on 18 percent of his curveballs; just over one third of the time that he threw the pitch, it resulted in a strike without the ball being put into play.

The curveball was always supposed to be Fried’s bread and butter, but he broke out a slider in 2019 that looks to be equally effective — if not even better. Hitters whiffed on the new pitch at a 15.3 percent clip that nearly matched his curve, and they chased it out of the strike zone at a 41 percent rate — the best of all his offerings. Fried’s spin on the slider isn’t at the elite levels of his curve, but it ranked in the 76th percentile. Opponents batted .212/.241/.327 when putting his curve into play and .200/.230/.331 when putting his slider into play. Not bad for a pitch he’d literally never thrown in a big league game until March 28, 2019.

When hitters did make contact against Fried, the quality of said contact wasn’t particularly impressive. Per Statcast, Fried allowed hitters to barrel just 4.4 percent of the pitches put into play against him, ranking 16th of 242 pitchers. Opponents batted .270/.324/.419 against Fried in 2019, which translated to a .315 wOBA. But based on the quality of contact he allowed and his strong K/BB numbers, Statcast projected a .297 expected wOBA for Fried. That 18-point gap between his actual wOBA and his xwOBA was the 34th-largest among 242 big league pitchers (with most who ranked ahead of him being pitchers who were shelled at an unsustainable rate in the first place — not quality performers).

The pitching-rich Braves still have more arms on the way. Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright highlight their current crop of minor league arms. Soroka, of course, is a highly talented pitcher in his own right — evidenced by a runner-up finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting a sixth-place nod in 2019 Cy Young balloting. It’s easy for Fried to get a little lost in the shuffle after Soroka’s electric debut and the constant hype surrounding their rich farm system. But it seems very possible that we’ve yet to see the best Fried has to offer, and there’s reason to think that his best will be enough to push him into the upper echelon of NL starters.

Pitcher Notes: Fried, Eovaldi, A. Wood, Brewers, Rangers

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Braves southpaw Max Fried exited his start Monday with a blister on his left index finger, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes (subscription link). The Braves will re-evaluate Fried on Tuesday, per O’Brien, who points out blister issues have “plagued” the 25-year-old in the past. Blisters can be serious enough to lead to injury list stints, though Fried is optimistic he’ll avoid an IL placement. The Braves’ 58-37 record and 7 1/2-game lead in the National League East have come thanks in part to Fried. He turned in five shutout innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Monday, giving him a 4.08 ERA/3.86 FIP in 103 2/3 frames on the season.

The latest on a few other hurlers…

  • Red Sox soon-to-be closer Nathan Eovaldi will embark on a rehab stint Wednesday or Thursday, likely with Triple-A Pawtucket, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Saturday that Eovaldi could rejoin Boston’s staff sometime this week. Eovaldi, who has been out since late April because of right elbow surgery, will be pitching in a full-time relief role for the first time in his career when he returns. The 29-year-old has started in 152 of 160 appearances thus far.
  • Reds lefty Alex Wood will make his third Triple-A rehab appearance Wednesday, when he’ll throw four innings and 60 to 65 pitches, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. It’s a good sign for Wood, whom back problems have stopped from pitching in in the majors in 2019. His return, if it comes, could be a boon for a Cincinnati team that isn’t waving the white flag on a playoff push despite a 43-48 record.
  • The Brewers placed right-hander Corbin Burnes on the injured list Monday because of shoulder irritation, recalling fellow righty Burch Smith from Triple-A San Antonio to take his place. The club put Burnes on the shelf in the wake of his most recent blowup Sunday, when he allowed four earned runs on four straight hits and failed to retire a batter in a loss to the Giants. Even though the 24-year-old Burnes has struck out just better than 13 batters per nine innings this season, struggles preventing home have led to an ineffectual 9.00 ERA/6.12 FIP across 46 frames. Burnes didn’t give up any homers Sunday, but he has allowed HRs on an astounding 39 percent of fly balls this season.
  • Rangers pitching prospect Yerry Rodriguez is done for the season because of a UCL sprain in his right elbow, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. The club will shut Rodriguez down for six to eight weeks and then re-evaluate him. Rodriguez, who entered the season as FanGraphs’ 14th-ranked Rangers prospect, notched a brilliant 2.08 ERA/3.16 FIP with 10.38 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9 in 73 2/3 Single-A innings this season.

Braves Notes: Fried, Newcomb, O’Day

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The Braves received a scare tonight when left-hander Max Fried was struck on his left hand/forearm by a comeback liner off the bat of Alex Verdugo. Fried attempted a pair of warmup tosses with a trainer on the mound following the play but exited the game rather than continuing forward. Thankfully, the initial x-rays on the young lefty came back negative, as J.P Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Fried has been diagnosed with a contusion and is considered day-to-day for the time being.

It’s excellent news considering that even after being charged with four runs in an inning of work tonight — one of which scored after he left the game and another two of which came home on a play that could’ve been ruled an error — Fried is sporting a 2.97 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate in 39 1/3 innings of work.

Here’s a bit more on the Braves…

  • The Braves will discuss the possibility of utilizing left-hander Sean Newcomb as a reliever moving forward, manager Brian Snitker told reporters Tuesday (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Snitker specifically praised Newcomb’s aggressiveness in a recent relief outing that saw him toss a pair of scoreless innings, though for now it seems clear that the discussion is in its early stages. Newcomb voiced a willingness to pitch in that role if it’s what the organization deemed best, noting as well that the decision isn’t really up to him. The 25-year-old was one of the Braves’ best starters for much of the 2018 campaign before slumping through much of the season’s second half. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been in a state of flux all season after a quiet winter in terms of pitching additions.
  • There’s still no timeline for Darren O’Day’s return to a big league mound, writes David O’Brien of The Athletic as part of a larger look at the Braves’ bullpen (subscription required). The organization is hopeful that the veteran righty, acquired in last July’s trade for Kevin Gausman, will finally make his Braves debut at some point this summer, but to this point there’s nothing more concrete than that vague target. O’Day was sidelined with a hamstring injury at the time of that trade and was included in the swap largely because of the remaining money on his contract, though the Braves surely hoped he’d be an option for them in 2019. Instead, he’s been sidelined to this point by a forearm strain that appears to be progressing slowly. The 36-year-old had a terrific 2012-17 run with the Orioles and had a 3.60 ERA with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio through 20 innings prior to last season’s injury. He’s earning $9MM in 2019 — the final season of a four-year, $31MM contract.

Braves Rumors: Duvall, Outfield, Pitching Staff

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It seems the Braves may be looking at alternatives in the outfield, with David O’Brien of The Athletic tweeting that Adam Duvall’s hold on a roster spot is “tenuous at best.” The Braves acquired Duvall from the Reds in a minor trade last July, and while they didn’t give up much in the way of long-term value, the trade simply hasn’t paid dividends. Duvall was slumping at the time of the acquisition and cratered further with a disastrous .132/.193/.151 through 57 trips to the plate with the Atlanta organization. Despite struggling through the worst season of his career in 2018, Duvall was surprisingly tendered a contract by the Braves, who avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $2.875MM salary. If the Braves cut ties with Duvall, they’d only be responsible for about $696K of that non-guaranteed sum. O’Brien notes that if another fourth-outfield type becomes available in the next few days, it wouldn’t be surprising if Atlanta moves on from Duvall, who is 5-for-37 with seven walks and six strikeouts so far in camp.

More out of Atlanta…

  • On the pitching side, O’Brien took a look yesterday (subscription link) at a roster that’s loaded with possibilities but also a number of health questions. The Atlanta organization will be piecing things together at the back of the bullpen while A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day work back to full health. Both will open the season on the injured list. Some young starters could be tasked with relief duties to open the year, though the rotation is also missing its top piece in Mike Foltynewicz.
  • Not only is Foltynewicz headed for the injured list to start the season, Kevin Gausman’s status for the early portion of the season is seemingly up in the air, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Gausman did throw 58 pitches in an intrasquad game yesterday, but the organization would like him to be built up to 90 pitches before joining the big league rotation. Thankfully for Braves fans, it doesn’t seem as though there’s much long-term concern following Gausman’s early camp shoulder issues. If he’s not ready to go for the opening week, then it’s possible that each of Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Max Fried could make the roster.
  • Meanwhile, the Braves announced today that Mike Soroka has been optioned to Triple-A, where he’ll get at least a few outings under his belt before he’s reconsidered for the MLB staff. That’s actually positive news, it seems, since it indicates that Soroka is healthy enough that he did not require a trip to the injured list to open the season. Soroka was limited in camp with problems in his throwing shoulder, though if he can put that issue behind him he should quickly emerge as a candidate to rejoin the Atlanta rotation.

DL Placements: Fried, Carle, Albers

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A trio of pitchers have hit the disabled list this afternoon… here are the details.

  • The Braves have placed Max Fried on the DL with a left groin strain, the club announced. It’s a notable loss for a pennant-chasing Atlanta club, as Fried’s been excellent in four starts (nine total appearances) so far this season. Despite walking a whopping 16 batters in just 26 2/3 innings, Fried’s managed to post a tidy 3.38 ERA thanks in part to 34 strikeouts and a 50.8% ground ball rate. He’s benefitted from an 80.5% strand rate, but his whopping 23.1% HR/FB rate suggests a bit of bad luck in that department. Fried’s injury suggest that Atlanta will likely return to a traditional five-man rotation for the time being, utilizing Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez and the newly-acquired Kevin Gausman.
  • Simultaneously, the Braves have lost a valuable righty reliever to the DL in the form of Shane Carle (shoulder inflammation). Carle’s been fantastic out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.53 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. The righty’s been used for four or more outs a whopping 14 times in 2018, so the club will surely miss his ability to eat late innings for the time being. In the absence of Fried and Carle, the Braves have recalled lefty Adam McCreery and righty Wes Parsons from Triple-A Gwinett.
  • The Brewers have unsurprisingly added righty reliever Matt Albers to their disabled list, owing to a left hamstring issue. It’s been clear that something isn’t right with the 35-year-old veteran, as he’s allowed a cataclysmic 18 earned runs across his past eight appearances spanning 5 1/3 innings dating back to the start of June. In the season’s first two months, though, Albers had allowed just three earned runs across 25 innings; the club will hope to get him right in time for him to make an impact out of their ’pen down the stretch. Recently-acquired right-hander Jordan Lyles will take Albers’ place on the active roster for the time being.

Mike Soroka, Arodys Vizcaino Still Weeks Away From Throwing

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The Braves provided some notable updates yesterday on a pair of important righties, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to report. Both top pitching prospect Mike Soroka and closer Arodys Vizcaino will need to rest their ailing shoulders for a few more weeks before returning to the hill.

Right now, there are about nine weeks of regular-season play remaining. The two hurlers will need not only to work through a throwing progression, but also undertake rehab work before getting back to the majors.

Getting all the way back to the majors would be an especially difficult proposition for Soroka, who has been on the shelf for about a month. Though he’s said not to be dealing with any structural issues in the joint, shoulder inflammation had already forced a stretch on the DL earlier in the year. Clearly, the club is committed to exercising caution, much as it might wish to have Soroka available down the stretch and into the postseason.

It’s a bit different for Vizcaino, who is a veteran pitcher entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. As a reliever, his path back will be shorter. While he has also experienced prior shoulder woes this season, the Braves will understandably be somewhat more aggressive with trying to get him back in game action.

As Snitker explained, there’s still good reason to think that Vizcaino will return, though risk remains:

“I don’t see Viz missing the year. I think at some point — because he’s a one-inning guy — we can get him back. I say that, but until we get him throwing, we don’t know.”

What’s most interesting about these developments is how they’ll impact the team’s deadline moves. Both the rotation and bullpen would clearly be better units with Soroka and Vizcaino, respectively. GM Alex Anthopoulos has said all along he’d like to wait until he has all the information needed to determine priorities. The decision point is now nearly upon him.

With regard to the rotation, the fact that there’s no longer a clear path back for Soroka makes it more likely than ever that the Braves will push to land an established, controllable starter. The unit has at least one hole, and that’s before considering the fact that all of the top four existing options have rather significantly outperformed their peripherals by measure of major ERA estimators. Young lefty Max Fried is moving back toward the majors on a rehab assignment, as David O’Brien of The Athletic recently tweeted, though he’s hardly a sure thing and arguably won’t be capable of delivering the kind of near-term impact the team needs (or, at least, wants).

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Top 75 Trade Candidates]

In the pen, it’s certainly encouraging to hear that the team can reasonably hope for a contribution from Vizcaino down the stretch. But there are no guarantees. And the relief unit was already an area that the Braves likely would have targeted for at least some improvement. From here on out, every game is a high-leverage one given the situation in the NL East, so late-inning arms will be of critical importance. Waiting and hoping for Vizcaino to return, then, likely won’t be sufficient.

Anthopoulos said just yesterday that he’s open to adding in multiple areas. In addition to the rotation and relief corps, he cited “a bat” as a possibility. (Improving the mix on the left side of the infield still seems the likeliest course in that regard.) The GM also indicated he’s interested in securing controllable assets if possible. Indeed, that may be necessary if he hopes to land impact arms, as there are relatively few rental hurlers that figure to represent significant upgrades and multiple other teams that will pursue them.

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