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Adam Frazier

Mariners Interested In Adam Frazier

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The Mariners are known to be on the lookout for infield upgrades, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter) that Seattle is currently in active pursuit of infielders who are controlled beyond the 2021 season — including Pittsburgh’s Adam Frazier. The Pirates are obvious sellers, and the widespread expectation is that Frazier will likely be traded between now and next Friday’s 4pm ET deadline.

Frazier, 29, is in the midst of the finest season of his solid career. His 413 plate appearances are the fourth-most in Major League Baseball, and he’s turned in a robust .327/.390/.453 batting line with four home runs, 27 doubles, four triples and five stolen bases. Frazier’s 10.9 percent strikeout rate is the fifth-lowest among 137 qualified big league hitters. He’s also tied for the game’s fifth-best contact rate (88.4 percent) and has the game’s seventh-lowest swinging-strike rate (5.4 percent).

It’s true that Frazier has benefited to an extent from some good fortune on balls in play; this year’s .363 BABIP is a career-high. However, even with some regression in that department, Frazier would likely still be enjoying a career year by virtue of that career-low strikeout rate. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average at .297, after all, and he’s still walking at a respectable eight percent clip while swinging and missing less than ever before. He may not sustain this level of output, but he’s made his rough 2020 season look particularly fluky.

Frazier’s value goes beyond his contributions at the plate, too. His defense at second base has drawn plus ratings in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average for his career, and he’s also an above-average left fielder by virtually any measure.

The Mariners surely see Frazier as a potential upgrade at second base, where they’ve received a collective .198/.267/.345 output so far in 2021. That’s a disastrous output no matter how you frame it, but it’s actually been far worse as of late; that combined effort includes 69 very strong plate appearances from Ty France, who’s slashed .293/.391/.483 while playing second base. France, however, has been playing more first base lately. Non-France Mariners second basemen in 2021 are hitting just .178/.239/.317 on the season.

As such, it’s no surprise to see Frazier among the Mariners’ targets. He’s playing the year on a $4.3MM salary and is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. That’s a key distinction for the Mariners, who are seven games back in the AL West and four and a half games back of a Wild Card spot. They’re aiming to stock up for a bit of a long-shot postseason run in 2021, but adding players who can help next year when their young core is more established (and likely after some offseason spending) is sensible.

It stands to reason that if Seattle is looking into Frazier, then general manager Jerry Dipoto has also gauged the asking price on Royals All-Star Whit Merrifield, who has again seen his name surface on the summer rumor mill. Dipoto is never afraid to make deals and will likely be checking in on a number of controllable, longer-shot trade candidates as the deadline approaches.

White Sox Interested In Adam Frazier

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The White Sox are “taking a close look” at Pirates second baseman Adam Frazier, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 29-year-old is amidst a stellar campaign that earned him his first career All-Star nod last night.

Chicago surely isn’t alone in taking an interest in Frazier, who has a .326/.393/.468 line (139 wRC+) through 346 plate appearances this season. He broke into the majors in 2016 and immediately settled in as a fairly productive, high-contact bat. Over his first three-plus seasons, Frazier’s ability to put the ball in play resulted in league average offense (.279/.342/.420), despite lacking impact power. He slumped to a .230/.297/.364 mark during last year’s shortened season but has more than rebounded during this season’s first half.

In actuality, Frazier’s true talent level probably hasn’t bounced around as much as those numbers would suggest. Because he specializes in making contact, his production is more dependent than most players on ball-in-play results. Last season, Frazier’s BABIP fell to .246; this year, it’s sitting at a sky-high .361. Over the course of his career, Frazier has a more ordinary .312 BABIP, and it’s fair to presume it’ll settle in around that mark moving forward.

Frazier has made some modest process improvements this season. His contact rate is up nearly four percentage points, to a career-high 88.6%. He’s traded in some grounders for a few extra line drives. But Frazier hasn’t started hitting the ball with dramatically more authority. His hard contact rate is in the 4th percentile leaguewide, while his barrel rate (essentially how often a batter hits the ball hard at an optimal launch angle for power) is in the 3rd percentile, per Statcast. All in all, Frazier likely isn’t all that different than the player he was entering 2021.

That’s not to say he’s not a quality player. As mentioned, Frazier has an established track record of solid work at the plate. He’s a career .282/.345/.422 hitter, six percentage points better than league average by measure of weighted runs created. Advanced defensive metrics have suggested he’s an average or better gloveman at second base, and he’s rated highly as a corner outfielder when asked to man the grass.

In addition to his solid play on the field, Frazier’s an eminently affordable target for contending clubs. He’s making just $4.3MM this season (exactly half of that remains due from now through the end of the year) and is controllable next year via arbitration. He’ll certainly be in line for a nice raise given his production this season, but even a salary in the $8MM – 9MM range in 2022 would be more than reasonable for a player of his caliber.

A year and a half of Frazier’s services would hold a lot more value to a contender than it would for the rebuilding Pirates. Pittsburgh isn’t making the playoffs this season, and they’re not expected to next year either. There’s little reason for the Pirates not to take offers on Frazier (as they did over the offseason) and he looks like a virtual lock to wind up elsewhere before the July 30 trade deadline.

It’s not hard to see the appeal for the White Sox. Second baseman Nick Madrigal is out for the season after undergoing hamstring surgery, and the Sox have been relying on Leury García and Danny Mendick since he went down. Prospect Jake Burger has gotten work at second in the minors and was called up to make his MLB debut today. It’s unclear, though, whether Chicago would feel comfortable turning to Burger, whose more natural position is third base, at the keystone during a pennant race.

The White Sox have also been tied to Eduardo Escobar over the past couple weeks. An Escobar trade remains a possibility (and, as Heyman notes, would surely require a lesser prospect package than the one required to land Frazier), but other teams have jumped into the bidding for the Diamondbacks infielder in recent days.

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Frazier, Reds, India

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By all accounts, the Yankees will continue to treat the $210MM luxury tax line as a soft cap, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That gives GM Brian Cashman just about $4MM of accessible payroll space. As Rosenthal notes, those limited financial resources could account for a perceived “lack of urgency” from the front office. The Yanks are now 2-8 in their last ten and just two games over the .500 mark. Of course, even if the Yankees were ready to spend, there aren’t necessarily pieces out there to buy. The market tends to move as one, and it’s tough to get much traction until selling teams feel they have heard from a large enough swath of potential buyers. In early June, there simply aren’t enough buyers at the auction.

But that doesn’t have to stop us from looking at the potential options. For example…

  • Adam Frazier is generating trade interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The Pirates’ second baseman is one of the surest bets to find a new squad this trade season, as the 29-year-old is one of few veterans on a last-place Pirates team that’s one of the game’s few sure-thing sellers. He’s affordable, making just $4.3MM this season, and with one more year of team control, it’s the optimal time for GM Ben Cherington to net a high-impact return. While his .332/.394/.472 line hardly seems sustainable – nor does a .368 BABIP – he’s a versatile veteran with enough team control to convince potential buyers of his short-and-long-term value. The Yankees are a team that would seem like a particular fit for Frazier, though Murray writes that New York isn’t “among the teams to express early interest.”
  • Reds’ rookie second baseman Jonathan India made a change at the plate recently that’s paying off. He has settled down his mechanics in the batter’s box, ditching a high leg kick and utilizing instead a toe tap as his loading action, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The early returns are encouraging: India torched the Cardinals this weekend, going 7-for-18 with two home runs, two doubles and four walks to just one strikeout. That output upped his overall line this year to a solid .261/.368/.423, 18 percent better than average with the bat.

Pirates Discussing Adam Frazier In Trade Talks

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The Pirates are discussing second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier in trades, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Frazier could be the next piece subtracted as the Bucs continue their aggressive teardown. The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel speculated this morning that another deal could be in the works as well (Twitter link).

Frazier, 29, is coming off a rough showing in 2020 that saw him bat .230/.297/.364 in 58 games. However, prior to that down season he was steadily an average or better performer both at the plate and with the glove. It’s worth noting, too, that Frazier shook off a disastrous start to the season and was trending upward in his production over the season’s second half. It’s an arbitrary endpoint, but over his final 30 games Frazier slashed .273/.368/.414 through 115 plate appearances with as many walks (13) as strikeouts (13).

Those numbers fall right in line with the career .279/.342/.420 batting line that Frazier carried into the 2020 season, and they serve as a rough approximation of what interested clubs could expect in trading for Frazier, who is still controlled for two more years. He’s set to earn $4.3MM in 2021 after avoiding arbitration earlier this winter, and the Pirates have been on a mission both to acquire as much young talent as they can in trades and, seemingly, to slash payroll to whatever extent possible. The Bucs have already traded Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon this winter. Remarkably, that leaves Frazier and his $4.3MM salary as the team’s second-most expensive player.

While there’s good reason for clubs in need of help at second base and/or in left field to show some interest in Frazier, the Bucs are also peddling a left-handed-hitting second baseman/outfielder at a time when the free-agent market offers comparable alternatives. Granted, it’s been a bullish market for some players (e.g. Jurickson Profar, Tommy La Stella), but we’ve also seen players with very comparable production to Frazier, such as Cleveland’s Cesar Hernandez, settle for lackluster deals (one year, $5MM in Hernandez’s case).

Among the unsigned second base options still on the market are Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez. The left field market includes Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Nick Markakis and Brett Gardner, among others. Frazier’s $4.3MM salary is quite likely less than some of those players will command, but interested parties have open-market alternatives, which doesn’t help the Pirates’ cause in extracting maximum value.

At the end of the day, Frazier is still a somewhat versatile defender and solid hitter who rarely strikes out (career 13.6 percent). With two years of affordable club control remaining, he could certainly help a number of contending clubs, even if it’s more of a utility capacity than as a team’s everyday option at second base or in left field. Given the way the Pirates have operated to this point in the winter, it’d come as little surprise to see Frazier in a different uniform come Opening Day.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Pirates Joe Musgrove, Adam Frazier Mentioned Most Often In Trade Talks

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A report surfaced yesterday linking two of the Pirates’ most recognizable players to trade conversations with the New York Yankees as the potential partner. The Yankees and Pirates have discussed a swap that would send Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon to the Bronx, though there’s no indication the two sides are close on a deal.

The Pirates would be selling low on both players, with Taillon on his way back from Tommy John and Bell coming off a rough 2020. Given Pittsburgh’s overall lack of appealing trade assets – and the Pirates’ need to maximize said assets – it would be surprising to see the Pirates part with the pair for anything less than what would seem like an overpay, given the pair’s current circumstances.

There’s another duo of Pirates whose names have been bandied about the trade wire even more often, however. Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier have been the most frequently mentioned names in trade conversations, according to MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Musgrove has arguably been the most consistent presence in the Buccos’ rotation since his arrival in the much-ballyhooed Gerrit Cole trade. A former first round draft choice of the Toronto Blue Jays, the former Astro has put up 3.6 bWAR in three seasons with the Pirates, pitching to a 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP over 325 1/3 innings spanning 58 starts. Musgrove should make a very palatable salary in the range of $3.8MM his second time through arbitration, plus any acquiring team would get one final season of control beyond 2021.

Musgrove’s strikeout rate jumped to 12.48 K/9 over eight starts in 2020, well above his previous career-high of 8.30 K/9. His walk rate jumped with it, however, to a career-high 3.6 BB/9. His overall K/BB ratio of 3.44 K/BB actually tied with his rookie season for the lowest mark in his career. Still, there are some who see the 28-year-old as a potential breakout candidate, including Tim Williams of Pittsburgh Baseball.

Williams notes that Frazier profiles as a solid utility option for a contender. Frazier’s primary position is second base, but he’s appeared all over the outfield for the Pirates. Earlier in his career, he made fleeting appearances at shortstop and third base as well. Last season, he split his time between the keystone and left field.

Frazier – who turns 29 years old in four days – has never been accused of carrying a thunderous bat, but he’s been a largely-productive regular throughout his career, posting 2.4 bWAR per 650 plate appearances across five seasons. His .230/.297/.364 line was down across the board, though apologists could point to a strikeout rate of 15.2% that still saw him put the ball in play at a well-above-average rate, and a 7.4 BB% was well within his career norms. Looking a little deeper at Statcast measures like exit velocity and hard hit percentage, Frazier’s numbers dipped in 2020, but not so much to assume he couldn’t have rebounded over a full campaign.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Pittsburgh’s Promising Middle Infield

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If you hear the names Frazier and Newman, you might think of a couple shows from the 1990s NBC television schedule (yes, I know the great sitcom’s spelled “Frasier”). In this case, though, we’re talking about the Pirates’ modern-day middle infield. Although the team looks as if it’s a ways away from returning to contention, it does seem to have a promising second base-shortstop combination in Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman. They’re two of the reasons why all hope isn’t lost for a franchise that has cratered in recent years after it went to the playoffs in each season from 2013-15.

Looking back to 2013, Frazier was a sixth-round pick (that means he wouldn’t have been selected this year) who topped out as Baseball America’s 27th-ranked Pirates prospect after the 2015 campaign. As BA noted then, Frazier somehow went three seasons at Mississippi State without hitting a home run, but he has since shown more pop in the majors. Last season was his second straight 10-HR showing, which isn’t saying much in such a power-happy era, but he has still been a roughly average offensive performer since debuting in 2016. He’s the owner of a respectable lifetime .279/.342/.420 line and a 103 wRC+ across 1,574 plate appearances, and he managed a decent fWAR of 2.2 in 608 PA last year. And while Frazier’s penciled in as the Pirates’ second baseman, he’s versatile enough to move around the diamond if they find a better option there. The 28-year-old has logged a substantial amount of time in the outfield, where he has played all three spots, and has seen a bit of action at shortstop and third base.

Newman, 26, has also shown off a good amount of versatility, having lined up at both middle infield positions, third and in left since he got to the majors in 2018. The majority of Newman’s work has come at short, though, and that’s a position he has on lockdown – at least, until rising prospect Oneil Cruz gets to MLB.

Even if Cruz does reach the league sometime soon and bump Newman off short, the club may still have a keeper in the latter. A first-round pick in 2015 and a former top 100 prospect, Newman impressed in his first full season in 2019 with 2.4 fWAR and a .308/.353/.446 line with 12 homers and 16 steals in 531 PA. Newman doesn’t hit the ball that hard or bring a lot of power to the table, but he’s a fast runner who consistently makes contact. Those factors make him a good candidate to continue posting high averages. Just four hitters outdid Newman’s strikeout percentage of 11.7 last season, and only three bettered his 87 percent contact rate.

Frazier and Newman aren’t exactly exciting players, but they could make for a nice, inexpensive duo for the Pirates going forward. They’ll combine for less than $3.5MM this year, which is important for a low-budget Pirates team that will put a dirt-cheap roster on the field if a season does happen. Of the two, though, Newman seems more likely to stick around for longer, considering he has five years of control left to Frazier’s three. The Pirates haven’t been shy about selling off players with dwindling team control, but perhaps that will change with new general manager Ben Cherington at the helm. In the meantime, the hope for Pittsburgh is that Frazier and Newman will continue as the effective, low-cost performers they’ve been so far.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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