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Diamondbacks To Promote Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks are bringing one of baseball’s most highly-ranked prospects, as Jeff Passan of ESPN reports they are promoting outfielder Alek Thomas. The club had an opening on the 40-man roster, meaning no corresponding move will be necessary in that regard. To make room on the active roster, catcher Carson Kelly was placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 5, with a strained left oblique.

Thomas was selected by the D-Backs in the second round of the 2018 draft out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago. Just 18 years old at the time, he played 56 rookie ball games that year, 28 each on two different teams, hitting .333/.395/.463, wRC+ of 133, with a walk rate of 8.9% and strikeout rate of just 13.7%.

In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 91 games and hitting .312/.393/.479. His walk and strikeout rates were 10.7% and 17.9%, culminating in a 153 wRC+. He got promoted to High-A that year and struggled a bit, which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was more than three years younger than the average age for that level and it was also a small sample of just 23 games.

The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season but didn’t slow Thomas down at all. In 2021, he started his season in Double-A and played 72 games there, hitting ten home runs and stealing eight bases. Along with a walk rate of 11.2% and strikeout rate of 19.8%, he hit .283/.374/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. He got promoted to Triple-A and took his game up another notch. Despite his walk and strikeout rates slipping to 9% and 20.5%, he hit eight home runs in just 34 games, adding five steals, finishing with a line of .369/.434/.658, wRC+ of 168. Thomas is now considered one of the top prospects in the game, coming into this season with Baseball America ranking him #32, MLB Pipeline #40 and FanGraphs #23.

Thomas, who turned 22 years old just over a week ago, is off to a fine start to this year. Although not quite as blistering as his first taste of Triple-A, he’s hitting a solid .277/.362/.495, wRC+ of 117. It’s possible that Thomas is being held back by some bad luck, as he’s lowered his strikeout rate to 13.8% this year, increased his walk rate to 11.2%, but has just a .293 batting average on balls in play, well below his numbers in previous seasons.

He’s played primarily in center field so far this year, making 22 starts there along with a couple in right. Although some evaluators think he may need to move into a corner in the long run, it’s possible the team lets him stick in center field at first to see how he fares. Daulton Varsho has taken most of the starts in center field so far this year. However, he has the unusual distinction of being both a center fielder and a catcher. With Kelly’s placement on the injured list, it seems Varsho might start spending more time behind the dish with Thomas taking over the center field duties. Jose Herrera is the only other catcher on either the active roster or the 40-man roster. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for Kelly’s return.

After a brutal 52-110 finish last year, the Snakes are off to an encouraging start this year, currently sitting on a 14-14 record. Despite hovering at the .500 level, they’re still in last place in a very competitive NL West, but the better record has to feel good for those in the organization. Thomas is one of many exciting prospects that give the club hope of better results this year and in the years to come. He is one of five D-Backs on the Top 100 prospect lists of both Baseball America and FanGraphs.

Marlins Interested In Ketel Marte

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The Marlins have shown interest in the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  There isn’t any indication that a deal was close prior to the lockout, and it remains to be seen if Arizona would be even open to moving Marte at all.

As Rosenthal plainly puts it, the D’backs “would need a monster package to move Marte.”  The former All-Star is entering his age-29 season and is controlled through the next three seasons — an $8MM salary in 2022, and then club options for both 2023 and 204 that would pay Marte a total of $22MM if both options were exercised.

Marte broke out with a huge 2019 season that saw him finish fourth in NL MVP voting.  After a disappointing 2020 campaign, Marte rebounded to hit .318/.377/.532 with 14 home runs last season, though he was limited to only 90 games due to a pair of hamstring injuries.  In both 2019 and 2021, Marte has enjoyed large BABIPs and wOBA totals that have outpaced his xwOBA, so there is some question about just how sustainable his elite production is, plus his speed and baserunning skills have been in decline.  Still, Marte makes a lot of hard contact and rarely strikes out, and it is possible he could use a change of scenery given the Diamondbacks’ dismal results over the last two seasons.

Between Marte’s age, ability, and his very reasonable contract, Rosenthal points out that the D’backs would want more for Marte than they received in either the Paul Goldschmidt or Zack Greinke trades.  To put it in perspective, Arizona received two MLB-ready younger players (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly), one notable prospect (Andrew Young, who has since made his big league debut) and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt back in the 2018-19 offseason.  For dealing Greinke to the Astros at the 2019 trade deadline, the D’Backs got four prospects in return.

Miami could be a team well-suited to meet the Diamondbacks’ high asking price, given how the Marlins have been open to trading from their surplus of starting pitchers.  The Fish have lots of young pitching depth in the minors and even some names from their current big league staff could be available, with Elieser Hernandez and Pablo Lopez considered to be available.  (Sandy Alcantara can be safely removed from the list of trade candidates considering his recent five-year extension.)

The Marlins would presumably deploy Marte in center field, with Jesus Sanchez and the newly-acquired Avisail Garcia flanking Marte in the corners.  However, defensive metrics are mixed at best (-8 Outs Above Average and -12 Defensive Runs Saved, but a +2.3 UZR/150) on Marte’s glovework as an outfielder, and while his numbers as a second baseman are similarly unspectacular, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen indicated that Arizona would likely keep Marte as something close to a full-time second baseman in 2022.  Playing the infield could help keep Marte healthier, but the Marlins might also view Marte’s outfield defense as improvable if he is focused on playing only center field, whereas the D’Backs moved Marte around between center, second base, and shortstop.

In other trade talks between the two sides, Rosenthal writes that the Marlins also checked on Kelly’s availability.  Presumably, Kelly is no longer on Miami’s radar now that the Marlins have acquired Jacob Stallings to fill their catching vacancy.

Diamondbacks Targeting Bullpen, Third Base Help

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On the heels of an NL-worst 52-110 showing, the Diamondbacks are generally expected to be in for a quiet winter. Last month, Arizona GM Mike Hazen frankly acknowledged that competing in a loaded division in 2022 looked unlikely, and he sounded slightly more open than he’d been in the past to considering trades that would send away marquee members of the roster.

Still, Hazen pushed back against the possibility of a full rebuild at that time, and assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye took a similar stance yesterday when speaking with reporters (including Zach Buchanan of the Athletic). Asked about the possibility of moving high-caliber, controllable players like Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen and Carson Kelly, Sawdaye reiterated that the D-Backs hope to build around what he called “cornerstone-type players.” Just as Hazen has on a few occasions, Sawdaye said the Snakes would “never say never” on any possibility, but he also didn’t sound anxious to tear the roster to the studs.

“We go into every season with the idea that we want to put the best possible team out there that’s going to go out and compete,” Sawdaye said (via Buchanan). “I don’t think we ever wave the white flag and say, ‘Well, we’re going to give up on ’22.” Sawdaye instead suggested the D-Backs would look for external upgrades, pointing to the bullpen and third base as areas of need.

The Diamondbacks had plenty of issues this past season, but it’s arguable that the relief corps was the biggest culprit. Only the Orioles and Nationals had a worse bullpen ERA than Arizona’s 5.08, and D-Backs relievers ranked dead last in both SIERA (4.56) and strikeout/walk rate differential (9.7 percentage points). Since the end of the season, they’ve already picked up a pair of relief options (Zack Burdi and Edwin Uceta) off waivers, but it seems they’ll scour the free agent market for additional options. Sawdaye didn’t suggest the D-Backs would play for top-of-the-market arms like Raisel Iglesias or Kendall Graveman, but the front office has plenty of lower-cost candidates to choose from. The Snakes can add at least add some veteran stability to the middle innings, since they’re only returning one reliever (Sean Poppen) who worked at least ten innings with a sub-4.00 SIERA in 2021.

On the position player side, Sawdaye called third base “the clearest need on our infield.” Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera soaked up the bulk of the innings there this year, but both players were moved to contenders before the end of the season. The D-Backs could theoretically make another run at either player now that they’re free agents, but Escobar seems likely to price himself out of their market and Cabrera didn’t play particularly well. Beyond Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager, the free agent market offers mostly utility types at the hot corner.

Interestingly, Sawdaye suggested the D-Backs could try to pick up a controllable third base option via trade. Even if Arizona doesn’t wind up trading long-term assets, they could move someone like starter Merrill Kelly, who’ll make just $5.25MM in his final year of team control. Perhaps a Kelly deal could bring back a controllable infielder, and Sawdaye also floated the possibility of a “prospect-for-prospect-type deal” eventually coming together. The D-Backs themselves were part of perhaps the most notable trade of that kind in recent memory, when they picked up Gallen from the Marlins for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the 2019 trade deadline.

There seems to be a bit of room on the books for the front office to make some upgrades, even if none of Sawdaye’s comments portend a pursuit at the top of the market. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the D-Backs’ 2022 commitments around $80MM at the moment, and non-tenders of players like Christian Walker, Noé Ramirez and Caleb Smith could knock a few million dollars off that mark. Arizona entered the 2021 campaign with a payroll just shy of $96MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If owner Ken Kendrick is willing to spend at that level again, then Arizona could be more active than one might expect in augmenting the roster around the margins.

Diamondbacks Reinstate Carson Kelly, Place Five On COVID-IL,

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The Diamondbacks appear to be dealing with a COVID outbreak, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He lists Stuart Fairchild, Joe Mantiply, Noe Ramirez, Riley Smith and Pavin Smith as those going on the IL.

Manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic that Ramirez and Fairchild actually tested positive. Because of those positive tests, they will have to be isolated for at least 10 days. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic quoted Lovullo as saying that they are dealing with symptoms. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com added that Mantiply and the Smiths were placed on the IL for as close contacts, which means they will have to quarantine for at least seven days.

The team later announced many roster moves to compensate for the loss of so many players. Carson Kelly was reinstated from the IL. J.B. Bukauskas was recalled. Miguel Aguilar, Ryan Buchter, Stefan Crichton and Drew Ellis had their contracts selected.

Kelly has been out since June 20th with a fractured wrist. When healthy, he’s been a force at the plate, playing 50 games and producing a wRC+ of 128, well above average for any player but certainly for a catcher.

Ellis, a 25-year-old infielder, was a second round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2017. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs describes him as “a power-over-hit first base type.” In 65 games at Triple-A this year, he has a slash of .286/.396/.554, good enough for a wRC+ of 129.

In 14 2/3 innings this year, Bukauskas has struggled to an ERA just under 8. Though advanced metrics think there’s some bad luck in that small sample size.

Buchter is a 34-year-old journeyman lefty who also pitched 14 2/3 innings for Arizona this year, with an ERA of  5.52, before being designated for assignment and clearing waivers a few weeks ago.

Crichton, a 29-year-old right-hander, threw 22 1/3 innings of 6.04 ERA ball before himself being designated and outrighted last month.

Aguilar is a 26-year-old right-handed pitcher who has spent some time in the Reds’ system and has no major league experience.

 

NL West Injury Notes: Weathers, Bellinger, Betts, Kershaw, Belt, Crawford, Kelly

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Padres left-hander Ryan Weathers was activated off the 10-day injured list earlier today, and he marked the occasion with four shutout innings and his first career home run in San Diego’s 3-2 loss to the Marlins.  Weathers had to be helped off the field after suffering what looked like an ugly leg injury on July 11, though he ended up only fracturing a small bone in his right ankle.  He looked none the worse for wear today, which is a nice boost to a Padres team that has battled through multiple pitching injuries and might yet look to add more arms by the trade deadline.

More injury updates from around the NL West…

  • Cody Bellinger is day-to-day after leaving Friday’s game due to hamstring tightness, though Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Los Angeles Times’ Jeff Miller and other reporters that Bellinger was on the field working out prior to today’s game.  When he does return, Bellinger might be utilized at first base in order to reduce his running, Roberts said.
  • Roberts also had more updates on other injured Dodgers stars, including Mookie Betts’ continuing right hip problems.  Betts received a cortisone shot and the plan is for the outfielder to play on Tuesday when the Dodgers begin a series with the Giants.  Betts hasn’t played since July 19 and hasn’t started a game since July 17.  Clayton Kershaw (placed on the 10-day IL with forearm inflammation on July 7) threw a bullpen session today and is slated for a simulated game on Tuesday.
  • Brandon Belt may be close to a rehab assignment, as the Giants first baseman ran the bases today as he continues to work his way back from knee inflammation.  Belt told reporters (including John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle) that he feels “way better than I thought I was going to feel at this point,” considering that there was some consideration of knee surgery when he initially hurt his knee almost exactly one month ago.  Belt intends to wear a protective sleeve over his knee when he returns to the field.
  • In other positive injury recovery news for the Giants, Brandon Crawford began baseball activity today.  Crawford was placed on the 10-day IL with what was considered to be a minor left oblique strain on July 19, and it looks like Crawford will indeed only be out of action for a minimal amount of time.
  • Diamondbacks catcher Carson Kelly will began a rehab assignment on Thursday and will move to High-A Hillsboro on Sunday, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweets.  A fractured wrist sent Kelly to the injured list on June 20, interrupting an outstanding season for the 27-year-old backstop.  Kelly has hit .260/.385/.460 with eight home runs over 187 plate appearances.

Diamondbacks Place Carson Kelly On 10-Day IL With Fractured Wrist

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TODAY: Kelly has been placed on the 10-day injured list.  Varsho and infielder Josh VanMeter were called up from Triple-A to fill the spots left open by Kelly and right-hander Kevin Ginkel, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

JUNE 19: Diamondbacks catcher Carson Kelly suffered a fractured right wrist after being hit by a pitch from the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler in tonight’s game.  Kelly was hit in the bottom of the second inning, and stuck it out for an inning before being replaced behind the plate by Stephen Vogt to begin the fourth.

Depending on the severity of the fracture, Kelly’s season could potentially be in jeopardy, and at the very least he is looking at a lengthy absence.  Kelly already missed time back in May with a toe fracture, though that resulted in only a 10-day minimum stint on the injured list.

It makes for yet another down note for Kelly and the Diamondbacks during what has become a nightmarish season in Arizona.  Kelly’s performance was one of the few bright spots, as he has a .260/.385/.460 slash line and eight home runs through 187 plate appearances.  It was a nice bounce-back showing after a lackluster 2020 season for Kelly, who was acquired from the Cardinals as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade in December 2018.

Between his solid 2019 numbers and this year’s breakout, Kelly certainly looked to be living up to his billing as the Diamondbacks’ catcher of both the future and the present.  Arizona’s miserable season notwithstanding, it didn’t seem like Kelly (if healthy) was a realistic trade candidate, as GM Mike Hazen recently suggested that the D’Backs would look to settle upon an “anchor” group of core players as they reload and hope for better things in 2022.  Kelly would seem to fit that billing, as he is controlled through the 2024 season.

While Kelly is out of action, the D’Backs would get a chance to give top prospect Daulton Varsho more of a look behind the plate.  Varsho has only 56 games and 159 PA at the big league level over the last two seasons, with more of that playing time coming as an outfielder rather than as a catcher.  Varsho and Vogt could potentially split catching duties while Kelly is sidelined, with Varsho also playing the outfield on days when Vogt is starting.

Diamondbacks Place Kelly, Bukauskas, Devenski On Injured List

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MAY 16: “All options,” including surgery, are a possibility for Devenski, Lovullo said this afternoon (via Zach Buchanan of the Athletic).

MAY 15, 7:05PM: Right-hander Chris Devenski has also been sidelined, as the D’Backs announced that Devenski is headed to the 60-day injured list due to a sprained right UCL.  Left-hander Joe Mantiply’s contract has been selected from Triple-A to take Devenski’s place on both the active roster and 40-man roster.

MAY 15, 6:49PM: Both Kelly and manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) that they’re hopeful Kelly will be able to return shortly after his 10-day minimum absence.

MAY 15, 5:48PM: The Diamondbacks announced that catcher Carson Kelly and righty J.B. Bukauskas have been placed on the 10-day injured list.  Kelly is suffering from a tuft fracture in his big left toe, while Bukauskas has a right elbow flexor strain.  In corresponding moves, right-hander Yoan Lopez was called up from Triple-A and infielder Domingo Leyba’s contract was selected from Triple-A.  To create a 40-man roster spot for Leyba, Kole Calhoun was moved to the 60-day IL.

It’s another damaging injury blow to an Arizona team that has placed Zac Gallen, Christian Walker, and Asdrubal Cabrera on the IL just in the last few days, and the D’Backs have already been without Calhoun and Ketel Marte for the majority of the season.

Kelly’s loss is particularly tough, as the catcher has hit a scorching .338/.491/.613 over his first 110 plate appearances of the season.  While Kelly has enjoyed some BABIP luck (.344) and isn’t posting memorable hard-hit ball numbers, he is also doing an outstanding job at getting on base and making contact.  Kelly’s .491 OBP leads the National League, and he has more walks (23) than strikeouts (16).

Depending on the severity of the fracture, Kelly’s absence could either be relatively short or rather lengthy.  Stephen Vogt could now assume starting catching duties with Kelly out, or the D’Backs could explore giving top prospect Daulton Varsho more of a look behind the plate.  Since making his MLB debut last season, Varsho has made 11 total appearances at catcher, but he has only played the position once in 2021.  Given Varsho’s ability to play the outfield, the Diamondbacks could more or less split his playing time between catcher and outfield whenever Vogt needs a break.

Bukauskas made his Major League debut this season, and has posted an 8.31 ERA out of Arizona’s bullpen over his first 8 2/3 innings in the Show.  While the righty has given up a lot of hard contact, his ERA isn’t quite indicative of how he has pitched — Bukauskas has a much more respectable 3.64 SIERA, as he has been hampered by an abnormally low 54.8% strand rate and an abnormally high .433 BABIP.  Bukauskas the 15th overall pick of the 2017 draft, and was sent to the D’Backs from the Astros as part of the Zack Grienke trade in 2019.

Leyba was also a trade pickup for Arizona, coming to the organization from the Tigers along with Robbie Ray as part of the three-team trade in 2014 that saw Shane Greene go to Detroit and Didi Gregorius to the Yankees.  Leyba made a solid accounting of him by hitting .280/.367/.440 in 30 PA during his 2019 rookie season, but missed all of 2020 due to an 80-game PED suspension.

Leyba has plenty of experience as a shortstop, second baseman, and third baseman, so he represents a versatile asset for the Diamondbacks as they figure out how to juggle their roster amidst all these injuries.  Speculatively, Leyba could provide infield depth if Josh Rojas sees more time in the outfield on account of Varsho getting more catching starts.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Diamondbacks To Audition Catching Prospect Daulton Varsho In Centerfield

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The Diamondbacks have begun to experiment moving Daulton Varsho out from behind home plate, per Nick Pecoro of the Arizona Republic. Varsho is the Diamondbacks #3 ranked prospect per Baseball America, #5 per MLB.com, while Fangraphs has him as the #77 overall prospect in their latest rankings.

Varsho’s bat has long been his calling card. Baseball America’s Best Hitter For Average in the Diamondbacks system following the 2018 season, he made the jump to Double-A this year and continued producing a rare combination of power and speed. His 20 stolen bases make him the first catcher in the upper reaches of the minors to hit that threshold since 2006. His overall numbers suggest he’ll reach Triple-A by next year at the latest (.301/.377/.527 with 25 doubles and 17 home runs).

The party line remains that Varsho can and will catch at the major-league level, but a move out from behind the plate has long been rumored for the Wisconsin native. Perhaps most telling is the fact that the Diamondbacks are now putting that plan into action: he started two games in centerfield this week, his first looks at game action from behind the mound. The Dbacks believe Varsho’s athleticism will allow for a smooth transition to the outfield.

Carson Kelly’s emergence as the full-time backstop in Phoenix has as much to do with this move as anything. Arizona is presumably preparing for a future in which Kelly and Varsho are in the same batting lineup. Kelly, 25, has shined in his first season as a regular starter, slashing .254/.349/.531 with 18 home runs. Defensively, he’s not the quickest off the mat, but he grades as an excellent pitch framer and he’s long been held in high regard as a game-caller.

The Diamondbacks have a solid collection of potential future centerfielders, but the likes of Alek Thomas, Kristian Robinson, and Corbin Carrol are years away from the major leagues. Ketel Marte started 78 games in centerfield, but he’s also a capable second baseman. As a franchise, take a look at the moves they’ve made in free agency and trades over the last year, and they clearly value versatility. Recent acquisitions with the utility gene include Wilmer Flores, Eduardo Escobar, Andy Young, and Josh Rojas. Varsho joining this group of highly flexible position players fits the organizational scheme, and for what it’s worth, it should make him a more marketable trade asset.

Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

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The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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