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Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler is drawing interest from “around 6 teams,” reports Francys Romero, adding that the Marlins are interested in bringing him back on a multi-year deal.

Soler, 32 in February, is coming off a strong year though his overall career is defined by inconsistency. In 2023, he hit 36 home runs in 137 games while walking in 11.4% of his plate appearances. His 24.3% strikeout rate was slightly above league average but a strong result relative to his own previous seasons. His overall batting line of .250/.341/.512 resulted in a wRC+ of 126. He did most of that damage from the DH slot, only taking the field in 32 games on the year.

That was the best form Soler had shown since late 2021. That year, he hit just .192/.288/.370 for the Royals but then was traded to Atlanta and got in a good groove. He hit .269/.358/.524 in the regular season after the deal and then .242/.342/.606 in the postseason, winning World Series MVP in the process. That led to a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins, with Soler able to opt out after each season.

The first year with Miami didn’t go well, with injuries limiting him to 72 games and a tepid line of .207/.295/.400. He declined his first opt-out chance and returned to the Marlins before getting on track with the aforementioned strong 2023 season. He triggered his second opt-out and is now free to sign with any club, with this year’s market generally light on impact bats. MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents put Soler in the #16 slot with a prediction of three years and $45MM.

There would be risk in giving such a contract to a player like Soler with his oscillating results, but the market conditions should help him out and it’s unsurprising multiple clubs are interested. A return to Miami is sensible from their perspective since they could use his slugging ability. The club had a wRC+ of 94 in the season that just ended, which placed them just outside the bottom 10, and now face the possibility of losing their best power hitter in Soler.

Whether he’s a top priority would be a fair question to ask, however. Neither the shortstop nor catching position provided much for the Marlins in 2023 and those positions stand out as more important targets than corner outfield/designated hitter, where the club has Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and Avisaíl García. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll just under $100MM. Non-tendering a few players in their arbitration class such as Garrett Hampson and Jacob Stallings could knock that down a bit, but they would still be in range of last year’s payroll. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their 2023 Opening Day payroll at $93MM, meaning the Marlins might need a sizeable increase to consider adding Soler, as well as finding solutions to their other weak spots.

Jorge Soler Opts Out Of Deal With Marlins

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Jorge Soler has informed the Marlins he is declining his $13MM player option for next season, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). He is a free agent and will be able to begin negotiating with other teams on Monday.

It’s an entirely unsurprising decision. Soler, 32 in February, is coming off his best season in a few years. He connected on 36 home runs with a .250/.341/.512 batting line. The right-handed hitter walked at a strong 11.4% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a manageable 24.3%.

That marked a strong rebound showing after a tough first year in South Florida. Originally signed to a three-year, $36MM guarantee during the 2021-22 offseason, Soler slumped to a .207/.295/.400 slash over 72 games a season ago. He had an opt-out possibility last winter but understandably forewent a trip to the open market. With a much better platform performance, he’ll get to the market this time around.

While Soler’s opt-out call was made without much suspense, it puts the onus on Miami to answer a more interesting question. The Fish have until Monday to determine whether to tender a $20.325MM qualifying offer. If they do, Soler would have just over a week to gauge the market before deciding if he wants to accept.

In the event Miami opts against the QO or Soler declines one, he’ll be one of the top offensive players in a rough free agent class. Soler doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s a well below-average corner outfielder who spent the majority of his time at designated hitter this past season. Miami plugged him into right field for just 241 2/3 innings. Few impending free agents can match his power upside, although Soler’s pre-2023 production has been inconsistent.

Miami’s QO decision is clouded by an uncertain front office picture. General manager Kim Ng recently departed the organization and the club has yet to name her replacement. Brian Chattin is leading the front office on an interim basis. Miami also awaits an opt-out decision from first baseman Josh Bell, while they’re sure to decline team provisions on Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Marlins Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Marlins announced a handful of roster moves this morning, activating outfielder Jorge Soler from the 10-day injured list and selecting the contract of right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez. In corresponding moves, the club optioned left-hander Josh Simpson and outfielder Dane Myers to Triple-A. Miami’s 40-man roster is now full following Gonzalez’s selection.

Soler returns after missing most of the month to this point with a right oblique strain. The 31-year-old is in the midst of his strongest season since 2019, having slashed .240/.329/.513 with 35 home runs and a wRC+ of 124 this season. Soler’s return should provide a boost to a Miami lineup that has posted a collective wRC+ of just 84 since Soler headed to the shelf. Soler has primarily played DH while mixing in occasional starts in right field throughout the 2023 campaign. Assuming that trend contributes, Soler figures to push Josh Bell from DH to first base, with Luis Arraez moving from first to second while Xavier Edwards heads to the bench, though Soler’s return could also cut into the playing time of corner bats Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez should he see more time in right going forward.

As for Gonzalez, the former first round pick made his Marlins debut earlier this season, posting 2 2/3 innings of work for the club. He allowed a 3.38 ERA in that brief cameo, striking out two while walking one. Gonzalez was designated for assignment back in May to clear room on the 40-man roster for top pitching prospect Eury Perez, but stayed in the Marlins organization throughout this season. His results at the Triple-A level have left something to be desired, with a 6.07 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 13% in 121 2/3 innings of work for the club’s affiliate in Jacksonville. Still, as a veteran in his seventh big league season, the 31-year-old righty can offer Miami’s bullpen a depth option with previous experience in both a relief role and as a member of the starting rotation.

Exiting the roster in favor of incoming veterans are Simpson, a 26-year-old lefty who has yet to make his major league debut, and outfielder Myers, who made his MLB debut earlier this year and has slashed .269/.286/.358 in 70 trips to the plate with the Marlins since then. Both players figure to return to Triple-A to act as depth options while Miami enters the home stretch of their push toward the club’s first playoff appearance in a full season since 2003.

NL East Notes: Manuel, Acuna, Soler

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We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our best wishes to Charlie Manuel, who is recovering from a stroke.  The Phillies announced that Manuel suffered the stroke while undergoing a medical procedure today, though he was able to receive instant care (including the removal of a blood clot) since he was already at a hospital.  “The next 24 hours will be crucial to his recovery, and Charlie’s family asks that you keep him in your thoughts and prayers at this time,” said the Phillies’ release.

Manuel managed Philadelphia from 2005-13, leading the Phillies to a 780-636 record, five NL East titles, two NL pennants, and the 2008 World Series championship.  Manuel’s long baseball career included six seasons apiece in MLB and Japan as a player, and several decades as a coach and manager at the minor and Major League levels, including another stint as a manager with Cleveland from 2000-02.

More from around the NL East…

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. left yesterday’s game due to left calf tightness, and didn’t play in the Braves’ 11-5 loss to the Marlins today as a precautionary measure.  “We just don’t want to take any chances….I think he said he felt better when he woke up, but still, it was enough to take him out.  We just don’t want to chance anything,” manager Brian Snitker told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters.  The injury is at least serious enough that Snitker said Acuna would “probably not” be playing even if the Braves were in a more of a must-win scenario, and obviously the club will be as careful as possible in trying to prevent a longer-term issue for the NL MVP contender.  Remarkably, today was the first game Acuna had missed all season, as his durability has been one of many contributing factors to the outfielder’s incredible performance.  Acuna is hitting .337/.418/.586 with 37 homers and 66 stolen bases over 685 plate appearances, and he entered Saturday leading the majors in steals, OBP, runs (135) and hits (201).
  • Jorge Soler also wasn’t part of the Marlins’ win over Atlanta today, but told reporters (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson) that he believes he is “very close” to returning from the 10-day injured list.  Soler is just past the 10-day minimum absence after being placed on the IL with a right oblique strain on September 6, and the slugger has been feeling good enough to take swings against a pitching machine for the last few days.  It doesn’t seem like Soler will need any minor league rehab games before returning, which is good news for a Marlins team that could use his bat as soon as possible to aid in their quest for a wild card berth.

Marlins Place Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler On IL

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The Marlins announced that they have placed right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain. Also, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has been designated for assignment. Outfielder Dane Myers and right-hander Edward Cabrera have been recalled while left-hander Devin Smeltzer had his contract selected.

It’s a batch of unfortunate and ill-timed news for the Marlins, who are in the thick of a playoff race. They haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2003 but have a chance this year, currently just half a game behind the Reds for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The club hasn’t provided any specifics about the expected absences but it seems possible they might have to undergo the rest of the race without either their best pitcher or their best power hitter.

Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the sport when at his peak, which he showed last year. He finished 2022 with a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings, earning the National League Cy Young in the process. He struck out 23.4% of batters, walked just 5.6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 53.4% rate. Here in 2023, his ERA has jumped to 4.14, but he seemed to have righted the ship after a rough start. He had a 5.08 ERA through June 21 but has a much more palatable 3.13 ERA since then. Soler, meanwhile, is an incredibly inconsistent hitter but is one of the best in the league when on a heater. He has 35 home runs this year and is slashing .240/.329/.513 overall for a wRC+ of 124.

Subtracting that arm from the pitching staff and that bat from the lineup is obviously less than ideal, especially when considering the timing. There’s just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, which doesn’t give either player much time to get healthy before it could be too late. Further updates will undoubtedly come after more tests, but both injuries are worrisome. Oblique strains are notoriously frustrating and can often keep players sidelined for weeks, even in mild cases.

A flexor strain, meanwhile, can be even more serious. Both Dustin May of the Dodgers and Drew Rasmussen of the Rays were diagnosed with flexor strains earlier this year before each required season-ending surgery. That’s not to say that Alcantara is necessarily going to follow the same path, but it shows the potential severity of today’s news.

Looking ahead to the winter, Alcantara won’t be significantly impacted from a financial perspective as he signed an extension that runs through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Soler, on the other hand, has one year and $9MM remaining on his deal but can opt out at season’s end. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to top that guarantee on the open market based on his strong season and the lack of impact bats available this winter.

For now, it seems as though Cabrera will jump into the rotation to replace Alcantara. The 25-year-old posted a 4.79 ERA in 17 starts earlier this year, with an unsightly 15.4% walk rate, before getting optioned down to the minors. In five Triple-A starts since then, he has a 2.22 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate that’s still high but a marked improvement over his major league results this year.

Hartlieb, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected a month ago. He’s only been able to get into two big league games in that time, spending much of it on optional assignment. He has a 3.29 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has less than two years of service time but will be out of options next year. The Marlins will place him on waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Smeltzer, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been on and off their roster all year. This is the fourth time the club has selected his contract this season, with each of the previous three instances eventually resulting in him being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment. He’s tossed 18 2/3 innings for the club this year with a 5.79 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% ground ball rate.

Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson, both of the Miami Herald, relayed the details of these transactions prior to the official club announcement.

Jorge Soler Interested In Extension With Marlins

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1:25pm: Mish now tweets that Soler’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, tells him there have not yet been any formal extension discussions with the team. Mish adds that Soler is interested in remaining with Miami, however.

11:47am: The Marlins and designated hitter Jorge Soler have held “preliminary” talks about a potential contract extension, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report. Soler’s contract calls for him to earn $12MM next year — a number that’ll soon jump to $13MM when he tallies his 550th plate appearance — but that’s a player option. Soler, unsurprisingly, is likely to decline that player option and return to the open market if a new deal isn’t reached, per the report.

The 31-year-old Soler is in the midst of a rebound season at the plate, having slashed .241/.328/.516 with 35 home runs in 525 trips to the plate. It’s a stark turnaround from the 2022 season — his first in Miami — during which he batted just .207/.295/.400 during an injury-marred campaign. Soler has slightly improved on his walk rate in ’23 (10.7%), and his strikeout rate has fallen from an ugly 29.4% last year to a more manageable 24.6% in 2023.

Soler’s 91 mph average exit velocity (76th percentile), 15.1% barrel rate (93rd percentile) and 47.5% hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) all lend some credence to his rebound effort at the plate. His 35 home runs tie him with Mookie Betts for fifth in the Majors. He’s held his own against right-handed pitching (.229/.310/.458) and absolutely decimated left-handed opponents (.282/.380/.718). As such, teams that have struggled against southpaws could have particular interest in Soler this winter.

Between that success at the plate and a woefully thin class of free-agent position players this winter, it’s only logical that Soler would exercise his right to opt back into free agency. His Herculean run with the Braves following a 2021 trade from Kansas City to Atlanta set the stage for Soler to land his current three-year, $36MM deal in free agency. And while Soler is now a couple years older, of course, his 2023 campaign at the plate has been a more consistent and complete year overall than he had in 2021 (.223/.316/.432 between the Royals and Braves).

One potentially complicating factor this time around would be a qualifying offer. Soler was ineligible to receive a QO last time he reached free agency, due to the fact that he was traded midseason. He’ll spend the entire 2023 season with one team and, as a player who hasn’t previously received a QO, will be eligible for one this winter. The QO value figures to increase from last year’s $19.65MM, likely surpassing $20MM this time around. As is frequently the case, Soler probably won’t match that AAV on a multi-year deal, but he could earn more than double the QO value in guaranteed money on a multi-year deal in free agency.

There will be fewer impact bats available in free agency this offseason than perhaps at any point in recent history. Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger topped the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and Jeimer Candelario is having his third strong season in his past four years.

There’s little in the way of productive, prime-aged hitters reaching the market thereafter. Matt Chapman’s bat has cooled considerably since a torrid start to the season. Teoscar Hernandez is having his least-productive campaign since 2018. Neither Michael Conforto nor Hunter Renfroe is hitting anywhere close to previous peak levels. Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in spring training. Justin Turner seems likely to decline his own player option, but he’ll turn 39 this winter. J.D. Martinez is having a strong season but has twice been on the injured list and just turned 36.

Jackson and Mish write that Soler has enjoyed his time in Miami and has interest in working out a longer-term arrangement. That said, between his age and this year’s production, Soler will have a case as one of the more appealing bats on a thin market. Given his proximity to free agency, it seems unlikely he’d take a substantial discount. The Marlins already outbid the field to sign Soler once, when signing him to his current contract, but it’d not yet clear if they’ll be comfortable putting forth another market-value offer when Soler’s stock is presumably higher than it was last time around.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

The Marlins Are Still Facing Questions In Their Outfield

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The Marlins came into 2023 with a fairly unsettled outfield mix, despite not making any external additions. The club planned to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. off second base in order to take over the center field job that they had been trying to fill for years. Veterans Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García were both coming off disappointing seasons, while a batch of younger player were still looking to establish themselves at the major league level.

Almost one month into the season, the Fish are swimming at a decent pace so far. They are currently 12-12, though with a -37 run differential that suggests they might be a bit lucky to be at that level. Then again, it’s still early and they’ve had a challenging schedule, with all of their games coming against teams that came into the season as surefire contenders or borderline ones (Seven against the Mets, three each against the Twins, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants and Guardians, two against Atlanta).

How are their outfielders faring so far? Let’s take a quick look at each one.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hit .254/.325/.535 in 60 games last year for a wRC+ of 139 before a stress fracture in his back put him on the shelf. He perhaps could have returned late in the year, but the club was out of contention and shut him down, at which point Chisholm underwent surgery on a torn meniscus that he had been playing through.

Whether it’s due to the long layoff, the injuries or the position change, he hasn’t gotten into a groove at the plate yet this year. He’s currently hitting .218/.269/.391 for a wRC+ of 81. He’s struck out in 38.3% of his plate appearances thus far, a jump of more than 10 percentage points from his 27.4% rate last year.

As for that position change, the early reviews are mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -1 so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating at -1.1. On the other hand, Outs Above Average has him at roughly par, 56th percentile. His outfielder jump is in the 84th percentile and his sprint speed is in the 92nd. Some growing pains were surely to be expected since he’s never played the position before, so hopefully these numbers will all trend in a positive direction over time.

Jorge Soler

Soler is perhaps the most mercurial player in the league, having spent the past few years oscillating between being one of the most feared sluggers on the planet and looking lost at the plate. Last year, his first with the Marlins, was a downswing. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances and hit just .207/.295/.400 for a wRC+ of 98, missing significant time due to back spasms. He could have opted out of his contract but chose not to, likely a wise decision with that platform.

Here in 2023, he’s back on another one of his patented heaters. He’s hit five home runs already and has dropped his strikeout rate to a more manageable 23.6%. His .253/.337/.544 line amounts to a 137 wRC+. He’s largely served as the designated hitter but has been given five starts in right.

The torrid stretch for Soler is good for the Marlins in the short-term, but the long-term may be different. Soler has another opt-out opportunity after this season and would likely take it if he can maintain anything close to this pace, as he’d be walking away from just one year and $9MM.

Avisaíl García

García has a similarly inconsistent track record to Soler, posting above-average wRC+ figures in 2017, 2019 and 2021 but dipping below average in the following year each time. Last year was an especially low ebb, as his 28.7% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rates were both career worsts, as was his 66 wRC+ from his .224/.266/.317 batting line.

Now that we’re in an odd-numbered year, García is scheduled for a bounceback but has actually gotten worse in the early going so far. He’s slashing just .161/.200/.274 for a wRC+ of 30. The .211 batting average on balls in play is due for some regression, but he’s also been punched out 32.8% of the time while drawing walks at just a 3.0% clip. The Marlins desperately need him to turn things around, as his contract pays him $12MM per year through 2025, with a $12MM club option for 2026 that has a hefty $5MM buyout. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the club haven’t considered releasing him, but a benching is on the table.

Bryan De La Cruz

De La Cruz came into this year with 574 plate appearances. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both a little worse than average, but he had 18 home runs and a .269/.318/.430 line for a 108 wRC+. He’s a little bit ahead of that pace this year, currently hitting .295/.341/.436 for a 114 wRC+ with fairly similar strikeout and walk rates.

He won’t maintain a .396 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is making solid contact. His average exit velocity is in the 88th percentile of MLB hitters, and his hard-hit rate sits in the 80th percentile. Even without elite plate discipline, he can still be a useful hitter with that kind of bat. The right-hander hitter actually has reverse splits, both in his career and so far this season, which would seem to lessen the likelihood of him ending up in the short side of a platoon.

Jesús Sánchez

The hot start of De La Cruz seems to have cut into the playing time of Sánchez, as he’s been given only 36 plate appearances in 16 games. He’s hit just .172/.333/.241 in that time, which isn’t doing much to get him in the lineup more.

A left-handed hitter, he has traditional platoon splits for his career. He’s hit .226/.310/.440 against righties for a 108 wRC+, but he has a dismal .195/.230/.323 against southpaws for a 49 wRC+. He could seemingly serve as a useful platoon lefty bat but probably won’t get a chance as long as De La Cruz continues to seem like a viable lineup regular. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers, which might keep him on the bench until an injury opens a spot for him. Per Jackson and Mish, Sanchez is at risk of losing his roster spot, though the club won’t make a decision on that front until Joey Wendle is back from the injured list.

Peyton Burdick

Burdick got to make his major league debut last year and hit .207/.284/.380 for a wRC+ of 91 in 102 plate appearances. He’s been in Triple-A this year and utterly mashing. Through 20 games, he has a line of .309/.385/.654 and a 157 wRC+. He has a 37.4% strikeout rate and won’t sustain a .436 batting average on balls in play, but he’s already hit eight home runs and stolen four bases.

Jerar Encarnación

Encarnación also got a brief major league debut last year, stepping to the plate 81 times but hitting just .182/.210/.338. Like Burdick, he’s also having an excellent start to his 2023 in Triple-A. He has a current batting line of .292/.378/.472 for a wRC+ of 119. However, it’s bolstered by a huge .529 batting average on balls in play and comes despite a 42.7% strikeout rate. His 12.2% walk rate is encouraging but there’s surely some regression coming here.

——

It’s hard to glean definitive judgment from one month’s worth of data, but there are some trends and takeaways in the Miami outfield with nearly 15% of the season in the books. Chisholm’s defense in center has been at least passable thus far, so he’s likely to continue on in that role. De La Cruz could hit his way into an everyday role in left field, but right field looks like a continued problem unless Garcia can correct what’s now more than a full season’s worth of struggles. Sanchez’s grip on a roster spot appears tenuous, but while the primary alternatives in Triple-A (Burdick, Encarnacion) have flashy batting lines, their lack of contact calls into question whether they’d be improvements. It’s easy enough to see the outfield again being a point of focus at the trade deadline, whether the Marlins are looking to add a veteran bat to stay in the Wild Card race or looking to acquire a controllable outfielder as part of another selling effort.

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