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Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

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As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz

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Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist.  A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist.  As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.

Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off.  Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023.  It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May.  With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy.  To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill.  Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat.  Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals.  While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching.  Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
  • Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks.  Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury.  As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres.  It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
  • The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen.  In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS.  Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

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Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

AL Notes: Gausman, Forst, Athletics, Olson, Refsnyder

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Kevin Gausman won’t start tomorrow’s game against the Mariners, as the Blue Jays righty is still recovering from a bone bruise on his right ankle.  Gausman hasn’t pitched since suffering the injury on July 2, but Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters that the team is hoping Gausman can return to the mound on Tuesday when the Blue Jays host the Phillies.

Toronto’s struggling rotation hasn’t been helped by Gausman’s absence, as the Jays’ lack of depth was already being stretched by a recent doubleheader against the Rays, and Ross Stripling’s move to the rotation to replace the injured Hyun Jin Ryu.  Since June 14, the Blue Jays have a 9-16 record, and their pitchers have a cumulative 5.49 ERA — the second-highest total of any team in baseball in that stretch.  Rotation help certainly seems like the Jays’ top priority heading into the trade deadline, but in the short term, the club is just trying to hang onto its status as a wild card team.

More from around the American League…

  • In a wide-ranging interview with The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard, A’s general manager David Forst discussed his team’s struggles, the young talent on the roster and in the farm system, the pitching development team, and many other topics.  Forst also noted how the continued uncertainty over the Athletics’ future in Oakland impacts long-term planning, saying “this is sort of almost cliché at this point, but it’s hard, without a ballpark direction and timeline, to really make a plan on what the next few years look like.  Even internally, it’s hard to know what the team will look like the next couple of years.”
  • Forst also talked some trade possibilities both in the future and in the past, noting that of all the Athletics’ moves during the winter, the deal that sent Matt Olson to the Braves “was the one that we had most discussed prior to the lockout.”  Most of the other notable deals were largely negotiated post-lockout, however, leaving the A’s with little time to both remake their roster and bring in new talent.  “That’s why I sort of say there weren’t enough days to make those deals — which again, we knew we were gonna have to do — and also find ways…to get the current team to the level that we’ve sort of become accustomed to,” Forst said.  No such time crunch exists with the upcoming trade deadline, and to that end, Forst (unsurprisingly) said “there’s no panic” about moving Frankie Montas prior to August 2.  “We didn’t trade him in Spring Training because there wasn’t a trade that made sense for us.  That will continue to be the case.  Whether it’s at the deadline or next offseason or whatever, there’s not a feeling at all that in the next 30 days we have to trade Frankie Montas.”
  • Rob Refsnyder has been an unexpected hero for the Red Sox, posting a .931 OPS over 69 plate appearances since Boston selected his contract on June 10.  Refsnyder inked a minor league deal with the Sox just prior to the lockout, and he also drew interest from the Yankees during the offseason, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (hat tip to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  It would’ve been something of a reunion for Refsnyder in the Bronx, as he was a fifth-round draft pick for the Yankees back in 2012, and he was a well-regarded prospect during his time in New York’s farm system.  However, Refsnyder didn’t hit much in limited playing time in 2015-17, and a trade to the Blue Jays in 2017 kicked off a journeyman stretch for the utilityman — the Red Sox are the ninth different organization of Refsnyder’s career.

Kevin Gausman: Giants “Never Made Me An Offer”

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The Giants were known to be looking to re-sign Kevin Gausman, and as the free agent right-hander neared his decision, it appeared as though the Giants were one of the favorites to get Gausman’s name on the dotted line.  However interested the club may have been in a reunion, it appears as though the Giants’ explorations never manifested themselves into an actual contract offer.

According to Gausman himself via his Twitter account, “I want to set the record straight for y’all [because] there has been a lot of [BS] out there about this.  SF never made me an offer.  Simple as that.”   It doesn’t appear that Gausman necessarily had any hard feelings over the lack of an offer, as after signing with the Blue Jays prior the lockout, he issued a pair of tweets thanking both the Giants and San Francisco fans.

Gausman’s 2020 season in San Francisco was impressive enough that the Giants issued him a qualifying offer following the season, and the two sides discussed a multi-year deal before Gausman ultimately opted to just accept the one-year, $18.9MM QO.  With Gausman pitching even better in 2021, the righty was now lined up nicely for a much bigger multi-year deal that whatever would’ve been on the table from the Giants or other teams in the 2020-21 offseason, and Gausman ended up landing a five-year, $110MM pact from the Jays.

Beyond the Blue Jays and Giants, at least six other teams (the Tigers, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, and Cubs) were known to have at least some degree of interest in signing Gausman.  Of that group, the Mets reportedly offered Gausman a larger contract than what he accepted from Toronto.

As Gausman’s incumbent team, the Giants had extra time to negotiate with his agents at the Tidal Sports Group and ascertain how much the now 31-year-old was looking for on the open market.  If San Francisco either felt Gausman was out of their preferred price range to begin with, or felt the bidding got too intense once the other seven clubs got involved, the Giants might have not bothered making Gausman an offer that they knew wouldn’t be accepted.

This tracks with the perception that the Giants aren’t keen on making nine-figure contract offers in general, or at least not a high salary spread out over an extended period of time.  Farhan Zaidi’s front office has spent some money this offseason, if only on shorter-term deals — re-signing Anthony DeSclafani for three years and $36MM, re-signing Alex Wood on a two-year, $25MM pact, and adding a new arm to the pitching staff in Alex Cobb on a two-year, $20MM deal.  Beyond those pitchers, Brandon Belt also accepted San Francisco’s qualifying offer, staying in the Bay Area on an $18.4MM salary for 2022.

That adds up to $99.4MM for four players, or less than the Jays paid for Gausman alone.  While it could be argued that the Giants have more than enough available payroll space to have signed that quartet plus Gausman, the team seemingly either prefers to spread their dollars around, or are saving a bigger splurge for another player.  A right-handed hitting outfielder could fit the bill, as the Giants have been linked to Seiya Suzuki and (before he signed with the Mets) Starling Marte.  Free agents like Nick Castellanos or former Giant Kris Bryant also fit the description, but they have asking prices beyond the $100MM mark.

AL Central Notes: Moncada, Gausman, Tigers, Arias, Guardians

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Second base stands out as the most glaring area of need in the White Sox lineup, yet the idea of moving Yoan Moncada back to the keystone doesn’t seem too likely, NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber opines.  Moncada began his career with regular second base duty in 2017-18, yet has played exclusively as a third baseman over the last three seasons, posting very solid defensive numbers along the way.  Beyond just the improved glovework, the position change also seemed to spark Moncada towards better numbers at the plate.  As White Sox GM Rick Hahn told Duber and other reporters last month, Moncada is “a pretty darn good third baseman. He’s comfortable there….I don’t know if you want to upset the apple cart of something that’s working.”

That said, Hahn also twice said “never say never” about the possibility of a Moncada position change.  The logic would be that the White Sox could be able to address a third base vacancy more easily than their second base vacancy, as many of the winter’s top available second basemen are already off the market.  Moncada also wouldn’t have to stay at second base forever, if the Sox acquired a third baseman on a relatively short-term deal.  Hypothetically, Kyle Seager could be open to a one-year deal to join a contender, or a trade candidate like the Athletics’ Matt Chapman is under team control only through 2023.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Tigers had interest in Kevin Gausman before the right-hander signed with the Blue Jays, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes.  Detroit hadn’t previously been linked to Gausman, though given how aggressively the Tigers courted the pitching market, it isn’t surprising that they checked in on his services as part of their broad search for arms.  That search has already resulted in one major pitching signing, as Detroit signed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM pact.
  • Gabriel Arias is an intriguing prospect in the Guardians’ farm system, and ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 82nd-best minor leaguer in all of baseball.  Since the Guardians have several other notable middle infield options both on the active roster and in the minors, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga wonder if Arias might be a viable trade chip, if the team ultimately prefers other players as their ideal shortstop/second baseman of the future.  Traditionally, Cleveland has been more apt to keep its top prospects rather than move them in deals, and yet between both the middle infield depth and the Guardians’ more glaring need for outfield help, the situation could be right for the club to move a prospect of Arias’ caliber.  The 21-year-old Arias has already been part of one major trade in his young career, as he was one of the six players sent by the Padres to Cleveland in the Mike Clevinger deal in August 2020.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Grichuk, Cubs, Gausman, Matz, Pirates

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The Brewers had talks with the Blue Jays about a trade that would have seen Randal Grichuk head to Milwaukee in a straight-up exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  This was one of multiple alternate Bradley-for-outfielder deals explored by the Brewers before finally acquiring Hunter Renfroe from the Red Sox on Wednesday.

While the Brew Crew had to surrender two prospects along with Bradley in that deal, Renfroe is both less expensive than Grichuk and has been a better player over the last three seasons — Renfroe had a 3.5 fWAR since the start of the 2019 campaign, while Grichuk has been worth 1.5 fWAR.  The Brewers’ outfield mix now consists of Renfroe, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Tyrone Taylor, so barring any other transactions to shift some money around, Grichuk may no longer be on Milwaukee’s radar.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs “were on the periphery” of the Kevin Gausman hunt and “were heavily involved” in trying to sign Steven Matz, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma.  However, Chicago weren’t willing to sign either pitcher to as lengthy of a commitment as the five-year deal Gausman received from the Blue Jays or the four-year deal Matz got from the Cardinals.  While the Cubs are aiming for shorter-term deals for quality starting pitchers, they have thus far been successful on that front, landing Marcus Stroman on a three-year contract and claiming Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds.  Along these same lines, Sharma suggests that Danny Duffy could be a target for the Cubs, as Duffy can likely be had for a one-year pact given his injury-shortened 2021.  The team also needs more strikeout pitchers, either in the rotation via the trade market or in the bullpen.
  • Though the Pirates signed Jose Quintana and traded for Zach Thompson as part of the Jacob Stallings deal, GM Ben Cherington told reporters (including The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Kevin Gorman) before the lockout commenced that the Bucs are still looking to add another starting pitcher to their mix.  There isn’t much settled in a rotation that is short on experience apart from Quintana, and Cherington feels the Pirates’ incumbent arms will have to translate their promise into performance to win jobs during Spring Training.  “There was nobody that we assumed is in our rotation, but there are a lot of guys who have a chance to be,” Cherington said.

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays have made another big strike in free agency, signing right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110MM deal.  As per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (Twitter link), Gausman will earn $21MM in each of the next two seasons, $22MM in 2024, and $23MM in 2025 and 2026.  Gausman is represented by Tidal Sports.

The signing represents the end of a rather lengthy courtship, as the Blue Jays’ interest in Gausman dates back to at least the 2019-20 offseason, when the right-hander was coming off a rough season split between the Braves and Reds.  After being non-tendered by Cincinnati, Gausman instead opted to sign with the Giants on a one-year, $9MM deal, and after a very successful 2020 season, he chose to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer to return to San Francisco.  The Jays were one of the teams who floated a multi-year offer Gausman’s way, but he turned down the Jays’ reported three-year offer in the $40MM range to instead try and further bolster his value with another strong year with the Giants.

Kevin GausmanOver two years in San Francisco, Gausman not only bounced back from his tough 2019 numbers, but hit a new plateau of success.  Gausman posted a 3.00 ERA/3.38 SIERA over his 251 2/3 innings as a Giant, with an excellent 30% strikeout rate and a solidly above-average 6.5% walk rate.

While Gausman pitched well over 59 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 season, he duplicated his performance over a full year in 2021, tossing 192 frames and finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.  One notable wrinkle between the two years was that Gausman increased the use of his split-finger fastball to a career-high 36.6% in 2021, and Gausman’s splitter became one of the more devastating pitches in any arsenal in baseball.

The 192 innings marked a new career high for Gausman, though he was a solid workhorse while averaging 183 IP per year from 2016-18 with the Orioles and Braves.  It is worth noting that Gausman was much better in the first half (1.73 ERA in 114 2/3 IP) than he was after the All-Star break (4.42 ERA over 77 1/3 IP) last year, yet some regression might have been inevitable given that gaudy 1.73 number.  Gausman was also dealing with hip soreness for much of the year, and it could be that he simply started to wear down as many starters did while getting back to a regular workload following the shorter 2020 season.

The Blue Jays got plenty of looks at Gausman during his Orioles days, but while Gausman was a decent but unspectacular member of Baltimore’s rotation, he will now be expected to replicate his front-of-the-rotation numbers from 2020-21.  Toronto has been focusing on the pitching market for much of the winter, and in landing Gausman, it is possible the club has now its replacement for Robbie Ray, should Ray sign elsewhere in free agency.

MLBTR ranked Gausman fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and his contract falls a bit shy of our six-year, $138MM projection.  However, it appears as though Gausman did leave some money on the table to join the Blue Jays, as SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets offered Gausman a larger deal than Toronto’s five years and $110MM.  The Giants were also known to be making a solid push to retain Gausman, while the Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest.  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports that the Sox didn’t offer “anything real” to Gausman during their negotiations.

Gausman (who turns 31 in January) joins Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah as the four locks in the Jays rotation, with former top prospect Nate Pearson favored for the fifth spot, and Ross Stripling and Anthony Kay on hand if Pearson struggles or runs into more injury problems.  Between Gausman’s deal, Berrios’ seven-year/$131MM extension, Ryu signed for two more seasons, and Manoah and Pearson providing lower-cost control as the starters of the future, Toronto has built a solid core of arms that the club hopes can withstand the stiff competition of the AL East.

The Gausman signing could also close the door on the chances of Ray re-signing with the Jays, and Toronto has also lost another starter in Steven Matz, who signed a four-year pact with the Cardinals.  It seems possible that the Blue Jays might yet seek out another lower-cost depth arm to compete with Pearson and company, perhaps looking to strike big on another bounce-back candidate as they did with Ray and Matz last winter.

Since Gausman had already been issued a qualifying offer in his career, he was ineligible to receive another one this time around in free agency, meaning the Blue Jays don’t have to give up any draft picks as compensation for his services.  The Jays have already landed one compensatory pick when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers, and would receive another if Ray signed elsewhere since both Ray and Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offers.  With this extra draft capital on hand, the Blue Jays might be more open to now signing a QO free agent of their own, as they were able to land their sought-after rotation upgrade in Gausman without the cost of any picks.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter) reported that the Jays and Gausman had reached an agreement.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted earlier in the day that the two sides were “gaining momentum towards a deal,” and Morosi’s earlier reports suggested that Gausman would land a five-year deal in the $100MM range, with the Jays as a finalist for the right-hander’s services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Kevin Gausman Expected To Sign In Next Few Days; Blue Jays, Giants Are Finalists

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7:44PM: According to multiple industry sources, Gausman will receive a five-year deal worth around $100MM in guaranteed money, Morosi reports in his latest Twitter update.

TODAY, 1:09PM: MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Giants “have a good chance to retain Kevin Gausman, based on the current tenor of negotiations.”

NOVEMBER 27: Kevin Gausman appears to be close to picking his new team, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the free agent right-hander will likely make his decision within the next two or three days.  The Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Gausman’s services, though it isn’t known how many other teams are also still in the running.  The Jays, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Mets, and Mariners have all been linked to Gausman’s market at various points this winter.

There is enough interest in Gausman that “a five-year deal is increasingly likely,” Morosi writes.  This is actually less than the six-year, $138MM deal that MLBTR projected for Gausman (who ranked fifth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents), but it is still a healthy commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season.  Beyond Gausman’s strong numbers over the last two seasons, he can also be signed without any draft pick compensation required, making him an even more attractive candidate for teams.

For example, the Angels have already surrendered one draft pick in order to sign the qualifying offer-rejecting Noah Syndergaard.  Therefore, Gausman is probably a more enticing addition for the Angels than Robbie Ray, who is the last remaining free agent starter who rejected a QO (though the Angels reportedly had some interest in Ray earlier in the offseason).

The Blue Jays may have two compensatory picks coming back their way should Ray and Marcus Semien sign elsewhere.  That frees the Jays up to perhaps sign another QO free agent since they know they’ll be getting at least one extra pick anyway, or maybe deal a notable prospect if they feel they can replenish their farm system with extra selections in the 2022 draft.

Gausman has long been on Toronto’s radar, as the club had interest in the righty in each of the last two offseasons.  Last winter, the Jays reportedly offered Gausman three years and around $40MM before he opted to bet on himself by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer — a very wise move in hindsight, given what Gausman is now poised to earn this offseason.  Should the Jays win the bidding for Gausman, he will immediately bolster a rotation that has already lost Steven Matz to the Cardinals and may also lose Ray.  Gausman would join Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah in the starting five, with other starting options like Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, or Anthony Kay now battling for the fifth starter’s job.

Assuming he does agree to a deal soon, Gausman will join the long list of major free agent pitchers who have already landed deals before the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  Syndergaard, Matz, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Andrew Heaney have signed, though obviously several other prominent arms (i.e. Ray, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, Jon Gray) are still available.

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