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Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber To Exercise Player Option

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Shane Bieber has surprisingly exercised his $16MM option to remain with the Blue Jays, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He’s passing on a $4MM buyout, so he’ll pick up an extra $12MM to remain in Toronto for a second season.

The decision removes one of the better starting pitchers from the free agent market. Bieber was midway through a Tommy John rehab when he hit free agency for the first time in his career last offseason. He re-signed with the Guardians, then the only organization he’d known, on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after season one. Bieber was on a minor league rehab assignment when the trade deadline rolled around. Cleveland, then believing they were out of contention, traded him to Toronto for pitching prospect Khal Stephen.

The Blue Jays made one of the more fascinating risk-reward decisions of the deadline. They surrendered a legitimate prospect for a potential rental starter who hadn’t pitched in an MLB game in more than 14 months. It worked out well, as Bieber returned as the #3 caliber starter he had been with the Guards in 2023. He made seven regular season starts and turned in a 3.57 earned run average across 40 1/3 innings. Bieber fanned an above-average 23.3% of opposing hitters against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He looked fully healthy and averaged 92.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball — his best velocity since 2021.

Bieber added another 18 2/3 frames over five postseason appearances. He pitched pretty well overall, allowing nine runs (eight earned) with 18 punchouts against six free passes. Bieber did surrender three playoff home runs, including the World Series-deciding Will Smith longball in extra innings of Game 7. It ended in disappointment, but Bieber was generally effective for the Jays both in the regular season and October.

That seemingly positioned him well for a return free agent trip this winter. Bieber turns 31 in May. While he’s unlikely to recapture the ace form that earned him the AL Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 season, he’d certainly have gotten plenty of interest as a mid-rotation starter who is still young for a free agent. A nine-figure deal didn’t seem entirely out of the question. At the very least, he looked set for a higher average annual value on a two- or three-year guarantee that allowed him to opt out after the first season.

The $12MM difference between the option price and the buyout is well below market value for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber even if he were determined to take a one-year deal. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s less than Walker Buehler, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano pulled on free agent contracts last winter. It’s a few million dollars above the guarantees signed by Michael Soroka ($9MM) and Michael Lorenzen ($7MM).

Bieber will nevertheless lock that in and try to help the Jays get over the top in 2026 after their heartbreaking near miss. Only his camp knows the specific reasoning behind that decision. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible he’s hopeful of hammering out a longer-term deal with the Jays. He’s clearly comfortable with the city and the organization. However, there hasn’t been any reporting to suggest the sides have opened extension talks, much less made significant progress. That’s not to say it’s impossible that such conversations have taken place behind the scenes, but the option decision is a huge development for the team.

Toronto had been facing the free agent departures of Bieber, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in the rotation. They’re balancing their starting pitching needs against their desire to retain Bo Bichette, who could command a $200MM+ contract that makes him the second highest-paid player in the free agent class. Bieber voluntarily locking in a below-market salary to rejoin Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos is a major boost. They’ll still look to add at least one more starter, but this could give the Jays more flexibility to make a competitive offer to Bichette and/or upgrade the late innings.

Image courtesy of John Sokolowski, Imagn Images.

Blue Jays Activate Shane Bieber

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Aug. 22: The Blue Jays announced that Bieber has been reinstated from the 60-day IL, as planned. He’ll start tonight’s game.

Aug. 18: Right-hander Shane Bieber will start for the Blue Jays on Friday. Manager John Schneider gave the news to reporters, including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic, prior to today’s game. Bieber is currently on the 60-day injured list and will need to be added to the roster before that start. The 40-man roster currently has a vacancy. If that is not filled before Friday, then only a corresponding active roster move will be required.

Bieber will be making his anticipated team debut in Miami as the Jays face the Marlins. The Jays just acquired Bieber at the deadline, even though he had not yet finished his recovery from 2024 Tommy John surgery.

The Jays are hoping that Bieber was their best bet for upgrading their playoff rotation. Their rotation otherwise features a group of solid mid-rotation type of guys. Max Scherzer has been an ace in the past but is now 41 years old and has been working around an ongoing thumb problem. Eric Lauer has an excellent 2.76 earned run average this year but he has middling velocity and he hardly pitched in the majors over the previous two years. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt are reliable veterans but few would consider them to be aces.

The peak version of Bieber would jump to the front of the group, which is why the Jays were willing to give up prospect Khal Stephen to get him. Bieber won a Cy Young award back in 2020. He had a 1.63 ERA in that shortened season, striking out 41.1% of batters faced. No one would have expected him to maintain that level of production forever. His 2021 season was a drop from those heights but still very good. He had a 3.17 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate, though a subscapularis strain knocked him out of action for about three months.

In 2022, he logged 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA but his strikeout rate dropped further to 25%. The following year, he only struck out 20.1% of batters faced as his ERA climbed to 3.80. The first warning signs of elbow trouble appeared that year, as inflammation put him on the IL for about two months. He began 2024 healthy but made just two starts before getting knocked to the surgeon’s table.

What version of Bieber shows up now is anyone’s guess. For what it’s worth, he has thrown 29 minor league innings this year while rehabbing with a 1.86 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate. Though only the most recent three outings have been at the Triple-A level, with a 24.6% strikeout rate in those. He has been averaging 92.8 miles per hour on his fastball. He was at 94.1 mph back in 2020 but dropped to 92.7 in 2021 and then was in the 91-92 range after that.

The Jays don’t necessarily need Bieber to immediately be perfect right away. They are basically assured a playoff spot now and will likely be more concerned by what they can get out of Bieber in October. That gives them a bit more than a month to assess his stuff and results. The fact that his velo has come back in Triple-A is nice but that’s not going to be enough. Sandy Alcantara has basically got his velo to pre-surgery levels this year but has posted a 6.31 ERA on the season.

It’s unclear if the Jays will go with a six-man rotation or bump someone to a long relief role. They Jays start a series against the Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight, with Gausman, Scherzer and Bassitt the scheduled starters. They are off on Thursday. Schneider said today, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet, that Saturday’s and Sunday’s starters are to be determined.

While the coming weeks are obviously important for the Blue Jays, they will be huge for Bieber personally as well. At season’s end, he will be choosing between a $16MM player option for 2026 and a $4MM buyout. If healthy and in good form, he should have an easy choice to take the buyout. Though if he struggles or gets hurt again, the choice will get tougher.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.

Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.

That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings, with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.

The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits allowed.

It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.

It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.

Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.

They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68 ERA. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.

It’s a solid group but one lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.

Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.

Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.

A pessimist would say that Bieber has been on the downslope for years. An optimist would say that Bieber’s elbow was probably hampering him long before he went under the knife and that he can get back to his dominant form with a clean bill of health. The Jays probably aren’t sure themselves which view is more correct but they’re putting some chips on the latter.

As of now, a best-case scenario for the Jays would see Bieber dominate through a playoff run, at which point he would opt out and return to free agency. It’s possible that they try to alter that path by signing him to a new deal. They have done a trade-and-extend before. They acquired Berríos from the Twins at the 2021 deadline, when he had a year and a half of club control left. A few months later, they signed him to a lengthy extension. Presumably, they will want to wait to see how things go in the next few weeks or months, but that is a theoretical possibility with Bieber.

Whether that happens or not, they have perhaps crossed a notable line by acquiring Bieber. RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number above $284MM with Bieber added. That’s just an estimate but going over $281MM would mean Toronto’s top 2026 draft pick would be moved back by ten slots. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more breathing room, having them at $273MM. That yet doesn’t include Bieber.

A player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bieber is still owed about $19.33MM over a season and a third. That works out to a CBT hit of about $14.5MM. Prorating that over the final third of the season would add a bit less than $5MM to Toronto’s CBT number. According to Cot’s, acquiring Bieber wouldn’t put them over the line. Clarity on that might not come until later and the Jays might alter the picture with other moves.

For the Guardians, they have hovered around contention for a lot of the year. However, they have struggled a bit in recent months. They’re not totally buried, currently just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. But they recently lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. It seems they have decided they’d rather sell than try to make a push this year. Recent reporting has suggested they would look to move Bieber and outfielder Steven Kwan, though the latter ultimately stayed in Cleveland.

By giving up a wild card in Bieber, the Guardians have added an arm with a strong chance to help them in the future. Stephen, 22, was Toronto’s second-round pick last year. This year, he has already climbed from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he has logged 91 2/3 innings with a 2.06 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranks Stephen the #5 prospect in the Jays’ system. He has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and cutter. FanGraphs recently published an updated top 100 list ahead of the deadline with Stephen up at #80 in the league.

It’s a nice swap for the Guards, turning a wild card 30-year-old who was maybe about to become a free agent into a potential future rotation building block. For the Jays, it’s a risky ploy, but they’re clearly shooting for upside. The roster is already fairly well rounded with good contributors throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they had interest in closers Jhoan Durán and Mason Miller, though those arms have been traded to the Phillies and Padres, respectively.  Instead, closer to the trade deadline the Jays were able to land Louis Varland from the Twins in a surprise deal.

For now, the Jays can keep their five-man rotation intact. In the coming weeks, perhaps someone will have to be bumped out for Bieber, maybe after he makes another rehab start or two. The Jays also have Alek Manoah on a rehab assignment, working back from his own Tommy John surgery. It’s an interesting cluster of talent as the club looks to make a push through October.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Lange, D. Ross Cameron, Bruce Newman, Imagn Images

Dodgers Interested In Pete Fairbanks, Shane Bieber

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The Dodgers have been connected to a number of high-profile bats this summer, ranging from Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. The focus has primarily been on upgrading the club’s bullpen, however, and while the L.A. has reportedly been connected to everyone from Ryan Helsley to David Bednar, those aren’t the only bullpen arms they could pursue. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes that the club is seeking “at least one” right-handed reliever on the trade market, and adds that they’ve shown interest in Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Aside from that, it seems as though the Dodgers have at least some cursory interest in dabbling in the rotation market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that L.A. brass has spoken to Cleveland about right-hander Shane Bieber.

Fairbanks, 31, has a 20.2% strikeout rate that’s down relative to previous years but hasn’t seen his results impacted as he’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA and 2.89 FIP. His solid 47.8% ground ball rate helps to explain that to some extent, although some advanced metrics are still skeptical considering that his 3.98 SIERA this year is the worst of his career. With that being said, Fairbanks had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 2.66 ERA over a four year stretch from 2020 to 2023, and given that he’s just two years removed from those heights it would hardly be surprising if some suitors hope to unlock that elite production from him again in the future. Further helping Fairbanks’s value is that he’s controllable through the 2026 season by way of a club option valued at $7MM.

That combination of strong recent results, an impressive track record, and additional team control beyond this season has made Fairbanks a hot commodity on the trade market. The Rangers and Cubs have both been directly connected to him in recent days in addition to the Dodgers, while a number of other teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers are known to be on the prowl for bullpen help. With that said, there’s reason to wonder if the Dodgers might bow out if the market gets too hot on Fairbanks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers are not currently in the “high-end” relief market. With that being said, Rosenthal specifically mentions Twins closer Jhoan Duran and A’s closer Mason Miller. Both Duran and Miller are even more well-regarded than Fairbanks while also coming with more team control, so it’s entirely possible that Fairbanks is someone the Dodgers would still be willing to pay a relative premium given that his acquisition cost would likely still be incomparable to the likes of Duran and Miller.

Moving on to Bieber, the Guardians are known to be “trying to move” the right-hander. He’s not yet pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, but figures to be ready to pitch at some point in August. A former Cy Young award winner with a 2.91 ERA and 2.96 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, Bieber is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and could offer a huge boost to any club down the stretch and into the playoffs this year. The Cubs have been connected to Bieber already in the rumor mill, and a number of other teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays would also make sense for his services. A $16M player option ($4M buyout) for the 2026 season could complicate negotiations in theory, but it’s extremely unlikely that Bieber would exercise an option at that price point barring a significant injury given the ability of starters with his upside and track record to command far more than that even when coming off poor seasons.

The Dodgers are nonetheless a somewhat curious fit for his services given that they already have a stacked rotation that features Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell along with a bevy of viable back-end depth options. On the other hand, the club had a rash of injuries that left them struggling to field a full rotation earlier this year, and after suffering that same fate in the playoffs last season it would be understandable if the club decided to add yet another high-end arm to the mix in order to safeguard themselves ahead of a postseason where they’ll be looking to defend their World Series title. Los Angeles already has six MLB starters on the 60-day injured list, and while Snell is expected to be activated in the near future that just goes to demonstrate the fragility of modern pitchers and the importance of having excess depth.

Guardians Reportedly Shopping Steven Kwan, Shane Bieber

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The Guardians seem to be getting closer to selling significant pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Cleveland is “trying to move” both left fielder Steven Kwan and starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Both players have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors over the past few days, though Kwan has generally been seen as more of a long shot candidate.

If the Guardians are truly motivated to deal Kwan, they’d have no issue doing so. He’s one of their most valuable trade chips and would bring back a huge return. Kwan is playing on a $4.175MM salary and is under arbitration control for another two seasons. The two-time All-Star is hitting .286/.351/.410 with nine homers and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. He’s one of four hitters with at least 300 plate appearances who has walked more often than he has struck out.

Kwan is a career .285/.358/.398 hitter. He’s also probably the game’s best defensive left fielder. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average gives him an uncharacteristically average grade this season, Defensive Runs Saved (+13) still views him as the gold standard at the position. The well-rounded skillset makes Kwan an ideal leadoff hitter. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies have previously been linked to him. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Reds to the list of interested teams. Speculatively speaking, the Astros could also use a left fielder and are known to be targeting left-handed bats.

While the Guardians will sort through plenty of offers on Kwan, Bieber is a more challenging trade candidate. That’s not an indictment on him as a player but a reflection of his contract structure. The former Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last April. That was his walk year, and he re-signed with Cleveland on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber is playing on a $10MM salary and has to decide between a $16MM player option or a $4MM buyout at year’s end.

An acquiring team would take on a little more than $3.2MM in salary the rest of the way. That’s plenty manageable, but the buyout would push that above $7.2MM. That’s what a team would owe for two months if Bieber were playing on a $22MM salary as opposed to a $10MM sum. That also doesn’t account for the risk that he suffers an injury setback or simply doesn’t pitch well and decides to stick with next year’s $16MM salary — which he’d only do if he feels he couldn’t beat that on the free agent market.

Bieber has not made a major league start this season. He’s closing in on his season debut after making his fourth minor league rehab appearance last night. He reached four innings and 58 pitches with Double-A Akron. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that other teams would have a heavy scouting presence in attendance. While those scouts’ opinions on Bieber’s stuff will hold far more weight than the results against Double-A hitters, the veteran righty had an impressive outing — one run on three hits and a hit batter with seven strikeouts.

While the Guardians could hold firm to a huge ask on Kwan, they should be more motivated to deal Bieber if they’re committed to selling. They have to expect him to opt out if he looks like his pre-surgery self — even more as the #3 type starter he was in 2023 as opposed to a return to the top of a rotation. Cleveland is a manageable 3.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, but they have three teams to jump and saw the path get a lot steeper when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation.

Latest On Cubs’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Cubs are known to be in the market for starting pitching help, and it’s not very hard to see why. Justin Steele has been out for nearly the entire season after undergoing surgery on his UCL and won’t be back until sometime next year. Jameson Taillon is currently on the injured list, as are depth arms like Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell. Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd are having their innings carefully monitored after not getting much volume in last year. Shota Imanaga has already spent time on the injured list and has some worrisome peripheral numbers.

All of that has led the Cubs to be connected to the vast majority of rumored starting pitching options available on the trade market, ranging from depth additions like Adrian Houser, to high-value rentals like Dylan Cease and Merrill Kelly, to controllable arms like Mitch Keller and MacKenzie Gore. Reporting from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers this morning offers a fresh look at some of the other arms Chicago is taking a look at with just over 30 hours to go until the deadline. Rogers writes that the Cubs have shown interest in Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin and spoken to the Rays about their starting pitchers, while Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Guardians righty Shane Bieber is “an option” for the Cubs.

Eflin, 31, has struggled badly this year with a 5.93 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 starts. A 4.39 SIERA and an absurd 19.4% home run to fly ball ratio suggest that some poor fortune could be baked into Eflin’s results this year, but even so it’s hard to view him as more than a back-of-the-rotation addition for this season. With that being said, the right-hander does have some intriguing past success under his belt. From 2020 through 2024, Eflin tossed 583 1/3 innings of work with a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He struck out 23.2% of his opponents in that time while walking just 3.9%. If Eflin can recapture that quality mid-rotation form, he could theoretically pitch in for Chicago’s prospective playoff rotation this year, though that seems unlikely to be something the Cubs (or any acquiring club) would count on.

Bieber is another potential buy-low candidate, albeit for a very different reason. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since early in the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and while he’s expected back at some point in August it’s always uncertain what sort of production a pitcher coming off major injury will be able to offer. The 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has a 3.22 ERA and 3.09 FIP for his career, however, and if he’s healthy and at his usual level of effectiveness would immediately slot in towards the top of the Cubs’ rotation.

Bieber’s contract affords him a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout for the 2026 season. That $12MM decision figures to be an easy one for Bieber to make, and he’s all be certain to decline it and return to free agency unless he suffers some sort of new injury that would impact his 2026 campaign. Still, player options are at times viewed as a “poison pill” of sorts in trade negotiations, as the Cubs saw for themselves when they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees over the offseason in what amounted to little more than a salary dump. Perhaps that could lower the acquisition cost of Bieber, making the fact that he won’t be able to immediately impact a Cubs rotation in desperate need of help more palatable.

As for the Rays, the club is routinely willing to at least listen on virtually its entire roster even when they’re buyers and appears to be leaning more towards selling in recent days. That makes it hard to know what starters the Cubs could be discussing with Tampa. Pending free agent Zack Littell has a 3.72 ERA in 21 starts this year despite shaky peripherals and could fit the sort of depth-starter mold that options like Eflin and Houser can fill. Young right-hander Taj Bradley would be an intriguing controllable addition who the Rays are reportedly willing to listen to offers on. He’s pitched to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.14 FIP over the past two seasons and is still just 24 years old.

No trade can be fully ruled out when it comes to the Rays, so perhaps someone else from the club’s rotation could be available as well. With that being said, Drew Rasmussen extended with the club through the 2027 season back in January and is approaching his innings limit this year while youngsters like Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz are still in their pre-arbitration years. The acquisition cost for any of those three players would surely be exorbitant, however, and there have been no signals that any of those arms are even available beyond the Rays’ general tendency to listen to offers on virtually all of their players. Even by Tampa’s standards, however, a trade of one of those three would register as a major surprise.

Guardians Open To Offers On Shane Bieber

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The Guardians have made rehabbing right-hander Shane Bieber available, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has yet to pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April but is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

Bieber, 30, signed a two-year, $26MM contract to remain with Cleveland after that ill-timed injury. He can opt out of the contract at season’s end, which only further muddies a complicated trade scenario. Bieber is owed the balance of a $10MM salary and at least a $4MM buyout on a $16MM player option for the upcoming season.

Cleveland had hoped that Bieber would be back on a big league mound by now. He originally embarked on a minor league rehab assignment on May 31 but felt some soreness that caused the Guards to pull him from that rehab stint and slow his return process. That initial soreness didn’t prove to be any kind of significant recurrence of injury, as Bieber’s now back on the mound. He made the second start of his current rehab stint last night with High-A Lake County. He’s pitched five innings and held opponents to a run with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio on this rehab stint. Bieber also tossed 2 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts back in that May 31 appearance.

Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his injury. He tossed 12 shutout innings and struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. Also encouraging was the fact that his average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging. It was a sample of just two starts, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Bieber at this point. Scouts figure to keep a particularly close eye on his remaining rehab starts as a result. Not only is Bieber recovering from Tommy John surgery, he’d pitched with diminished results in 2023 due to elbow troubles. He tossed 128 innings in 2023 and logged a 3.80 ERA with a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate.

At his best, Bieber is a frontline starter capable of dominating any lineup in baseball. From 2020-22, he pitched 374 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Those rate stats all range from good to excellent, and fielding-independent metrics were similarly bullish on Bieber’s success (2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA). He looked like more of a third or fourth starter in 2023 while working with career-low velocity, and now he’s coming off a major surgery with at least one minor setback. He’s an enigma, to say the least.

The player option for the 2026 season makes him all the more difficult to value. If Bieber is activated within the next two to three weeks and pitches even competently down the stretch, he’s sure to decline a net $12MM player option in favor of a return to free agency. If he pitches poorly and/or encounters further injury woes, he’d likely pick up that player option and stick his new club with a $16MM salary it’d prefer not to have on the books.

Given all those layers, the Guardians may not extract the sort of return that would typically be commensurate with a brand-name pitcher of this caliber. Bieber stands as a high-upside play but one who comes with plenty of risk as well. A trade shouldn’t be seen as a given, particularly not with Cleveland riding a three-game win streak that’s put them back to .500 and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the American League. But Bieber’s next rehab outing and the Guardians’ play in the next week merit a watchful eye, as a healthy Bieber could be a major boon for a contender’s staff — whether that’s the Guardians themselves or a theoretical trade partner.

Shane Bieber Scratched From Rehab Start Due To Elbow Soreness

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2:40pm: Per Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Bieber will be shut down until the middle of next week and be re-examined at that point.

9:39am: Guardians righty Shane Bieber had been eyeing a return to the majors late this month, but that plan is on hold. Bieber felt discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow after a bullpen session between rehab starts this week, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. He’s headed for a consultation with Dr. Keith Meister, who performed the right-hander’s Tommy John surgery last April.

It’s an ominous development for a Guardians club that recently lost fellow right-hander Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 30, made his first rehab start with Cleveland’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League on May 31 and could scarcely have performed better. While the Guards monitored his workload closely and lifted him after just 2 1/3 innings, he punched out five of the nine batters he faced and allowed only a single along the way. Bieber was throwing a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for what was supposed to be a rehab start with Double-A Akron yesterday when the discomfort surfaced.

Presumably, the Guardians will provide more information on Bieber’s status within the next few days. In the meantime, it seems fair to expect that his return to the big league roster will be pushed back to at least some extent. Cleveland will want to proceed with caution regarding its longtime ace.

Bieber reached free agency this past offseason but returned to the Guardians on a two-year, $26MM contract — though the second season of that pact is a player option. He’s being paid $10MM in 2025, and the option comes with a $4MM buyout. So long as he’s healthy by season’s end, he seems quite likely to turn down that player option and re-test free agency, but the question of his health (or lack thereof) is once again front and center.

With Bieber’s status again up in the air, it looks as though Cleveland’s rotation for the foreseeable future will include righties Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi, as well as southpaw Logan Allen. It’s a solid group overall, but each has had some degree of red flag this season. Williams (13.2%), Ortiz (11.8%) and Allen (11.3%) all have problematic walk rates, while Bibee (1.82 HR/9) and Cecconi (2.66 HR/9) have both been quite homer-prone (albeit in only 20 1/3 innings for Cecconi). Cleveland starters rank 20th in the majors with a collective 4.07 ERA, but that includes 44 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball for the aforementioned Lively, who’ll likely be out through the first half of next season following his UCL repair.

Shane Bieber Targeting Return In Late June

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Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber could be back in the Guardians’ rotation before the end of the month. The 30-year-old righty, who underwent Tommy John surgery last April, began a minor league rehab assignment Saturday when he pitched 2 1/3 innings for the Guards’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League and punched out five of nine opponents.

Bieber’s next start is slated to come at the Double-A level on Thursday, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic, who adds that Bieber will likely take “about four weeks, give or take a few days” before returning to the majors (barring any setbacks). The maximum length for a pitcher’s rehab stint is generally 30 days, so with Bieber already making one rehab start last week, it’ll likely be a few days shy of that four-week mark. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery can get up to three 10-day extensions to that rehab window with approval from the league and MLBPA.

If the Guards indeed plan to use around a 30-day rehab window, as Meisel implies, Bieber could make six rehab starts, with a final appearance on June 25 (or thereabouts) before being reinstated on the 29th and making his big league return on the 30th. Alternatively, they could bring him back into the MLB fold around that June 25 mark if things go smoothly. The specifics of his return will depend on how he fares in the weeks ahead, but Guardians fans can begin building up anticipation now that there’s a clock underway (again, barring any setback that would result in Bieber being pulled back from rehab).

Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his ill-timed injury. That’s not to say there’s ever a “good” time for a player to suffer a UCL injury of course, but doing so just two weeks into one’s platform year before reaching the open market is particularly sub-optimal. That’s all the more true given that the right-hander looked brilliant in those two outings as he looked to rebound from a pedestrian 2023 showing. Bieber’s average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging.

Bieber didn’t allow a run in 12 innings last year, and he struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. It was a sample of just two starts, granted, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.

Had Bieber enjoyed a healthy season, he might’ve been able to command a nine-figure contract on the open market. Instead, he returned to the Guards on a two-year contract that guarantees him $26MM. The second season of that contract is a player option, however, so Bieber’s return effort merits a watchful eye. He’s being paid $10MM this season and has a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout that he’d receive upon declining. As long as he’s confident he can top a one-year, $12MM deal — which seems overwhelmingly likely, so long as he’s healthy — Bieber will head back to the open market at season’s end. The Guards could then make him a qualifying offer.

Cleveland’s rotation has struggled without its typical top starter, ranking 22nd in the majors with a collective 4.16 ERA. The Guardians also just lost right-hander Ben Lively, who leads the rotation with a 3.22 ERA, to his own Tommy John procedure. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee have posted nearly identical 3.79 and 3.86 ERAs, respectively, though the former is doing in spite of an ugly 13.2% walk rate he’ll need to improve if he hopes to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA. Logan Allen (4.31 ERA) and Luis Ortiz (4.40 ERA) have both made at least 10 starts and held their own, though Allen’s 16.4% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate make his performance feel a bit suspect. Offseason trade acquisition Slade Cecconi has been in the rotation recently, making two very good starts to begin his Guardians tenure before a rocky third outing (five runs in 4 1/3 innings). He’s sitting on a 5.28 ERA in 15 1/3 innings overall.

All five current members of the Cleveland rotation can be optioned, which gives the Cleveland front office some flexibility once Bieber is ready to return.

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